Latest / Trend Watch / Episode 31: Trump Convicted and Global Elections

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Episode 31: Trump Convicted and Global Elections · Trend Watch

• 0:04
  SPEAKER_01: Ready to take a deeper look at where history, politics, and economics all intersect?
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_01: Well, then you've come to the right place.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_01: Each week,
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_01: here's where we pull back the headlines and focus on the big trends,
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_01: the stuff that actually shapes our future.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: Through the noise, we focus on the signal.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_01: I'm your host, Neil Howe, and this is TrendWatch.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_01: Today is June 11th, 2024, and this is Trend Watch.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome back, everybody.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_01: As usual, I have on my fellow analyst, Christian Ford.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: So, Christian, how was your week?
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, my week's been pretty good, Neil.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: I was up in Maine for a wedding, which was a lot of fun.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: The weather was beautiful, and it was pretty cool.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: It was at a kid's summer camp, so everyone got to actually stay on the property in a
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: you know, sleep in the cabins and it's like going back to camp.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_01: That's the ultimate millennial wedding.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_01: It also is amazing when you have a lot of people attending weddings.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_01: It always seems like millennials are always attending weddings, but they're never getting married.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_01: So it must be because I don't know.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_01: Logically, that must mean that every millennial is is there must be a lot of attendees for every wedding.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_01: Anyway, I don't know.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_01: I'm trying to figure that one out.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_01: That's great.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_01: Well, we have we have a lot to go over.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_01: As usual, we'll start with our farewells.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_01: We have we have a few that are interesting this week.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_01: The one and I, as I usually go from oldest to youngest to our silent generation group.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_01: of famous people, celebrities, you might say, tour boomers.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_01: The oldest one is Richard Sherman,
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_01: the songwriter who,
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_01: together with his brother Robert,
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_01: wrote and often produced nearly every big hit in every big Disney musical from Mary
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_01: Poppins to the Aristocrats.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_01: He died last week at age 95.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_01: Sherman was born in New York City in 1928, the son of Russian, Jewish, Russian immigrants.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_01: His father was a lost generation Tin Pan Alley music writer.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_01: So that's kind of an interesting lost to silent combo there.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_01: After migrating during the Great Depression,
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_01: he ended up taking his family to Hollywood,
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_01: where little Sherman grew up during Hollywood's Golden Age.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_01: He and his brother Robert performed and wrote music as kids,
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_01: often in response to challenges from their father.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_01: At age 16,
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_01: he wrote a stage play called Armistice and Dedication Day,
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_01: showing how American life was so suddenly changed.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_01: following the attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_01: I guess you could say an archetypal event for the silent generation as kids.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_01: In the mid-1950s, he served in the U.S.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_01: Army, where he was assigned to the Army Band and Glee Club.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_01: After the Army,
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_01: he and his brother worked for Disney from the late 1950s through the 60s and on and
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_01: off into the 1990s.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_01: Over those years,
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_01: Richard and Robert,
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_01: Robert,
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_01: by the way,
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_01: died in 2012,
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_01: wrote a stupendous share of all the songs we recall from classic Disney films.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_01: They wrote the songs in Mary Poppins, including Spoonful of Sugar and Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_01: Glad I remembered that.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_01: Songs in the Parent Trap, The Jungle Book, Winnie the Pooh, Chitty Chitty Bang Bang, Charlotte's Web.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, you name it, right?
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_01: They also wrote the Disney theme park theme song.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_01: It's a small world after all, which has been called the most the most played theme.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_01: public song in world history that is to say the most played in public places you go
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_01: into a disney theme park and that's just sort of oh my god you know you want to
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_01: stop your ears um for these songs they won grammy awards academy awards and in all
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_01: the they're in all the
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_01: musical halls of fame.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_01: They have stars on the Hollywood Walk of Fame.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_01: They even wrote a few hit pop songs like You're 16, the song later made famous by Ringo Starr.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_01: Here's what's interesting, Christian.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_01: Though both Truman brothers worked closely together their entire lives,
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_01: they apparently didn't like each other.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_01: Their families never socialized.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_01: And when they attended gala award performances, they always got seats on opposite sides of the theater.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_01: After Richard moved to London,
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_01: they collaborated via fax,
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_01: email,
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_01: and phone,
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_01: but apparently only talked about work.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_01: But what a huge amount of work they did, right?
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_01: Richard Sherman collaborated
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_01: Gone at age 95.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_01: Next up is Rufus Parnell Jones, better known as Parnelly Jones.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_01: One of the great greatest race drivers in the 1960s and 1970s,
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_01: winner of several Indy races and major NASCAR events.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_01: He died last week at age 90.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_01: Jones was born in Texarkana,
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_01: moved with his family to Southern California during the war,
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_01: and started racing stock cars around 1950 at age 17.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_01: He got the name Parnelli,
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_01: I guess from his middle name Parnell,
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_01: from a friend who forged an ID for him,
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_01: which apparently the ID said he was 21,
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_01: so he could race.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_01: Well,
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_01: he raced stock cars throughout the 1950s,
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_01: and he was invited to race in his first Indy 500 in 1961.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_01: He raced in every Indy through 1967,
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_01: ranking near the top in every race,
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_01: often breaking speed records and finishing first in 1962 and 63.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_01: He also raced in a slew of other USAC championship races in those years,
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_01: road courses,
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_01: paved ovals,
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_01: dirt tracks,
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_01: regularly finishing near the top,
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_01: along with A.J.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_01: Foyt and Mario Andretti.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_01: By the way, both about the same age as Parnelli Jones.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_01: I think Foyt was born in 1935, Mario Andretti, 1940.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_01: In other words, these are all silent generation drivers.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_01: those who many would call the biggest name drivers in U.S.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_01: racing history.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_01: After quitting racing in the early 1970s,
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_01: Jones went on to own several race car teams,
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_01: produced documentaries about the Indy 500,
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_01: and acquired auto service businesses.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_01: My favorite story about Parnelli Jones, and this comes from his autobiography, is this one.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_01: Apparently,
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_01: in the aftermath of his 1963 Indy victory,
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_01: a police officer stopped him for speeding on an L.A.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_01: freeway and asked him, who do you think you are, Parnelli Jones?
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: To which he could respond, as a matter of fact, officer, yes, I am Parnelli Jones.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_01: Anyway, Parnelli Jones, gone at age 90.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to move on now to a boomer,
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_01: Doug Ingle,
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_01: lead vocalist for Iron Butterfly,
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_01: the band he founded who became most famous for his rendition of In a Gada Da Vida,
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_01: a song that has forever burned its booming imprint on the synapses of young boomers
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_01: who recall hearing it for the first time.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_01: He died last week at age 78.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_01: Engel was born in 1945 in Omaha.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_01: He moved as a young child to San Diego.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_01: His father, a church organist, introduced him to music at an early age.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_01: When the young Engel turned 21 in 1966,
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_01: the counterculture was taking off and he decided to found a rock group called Iron Butterfly.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_01: The group moved to L.A.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_01: and featured your classic four, right?
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_01: a drummer, a guitarist, a bassist, and Engel himself as the vocalist.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_01: The group produced virtually all of its hits over the next four years.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_01: Well,
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_01: and it also produced both its biggest album and its biggest single without question,
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_01: which was En Agata De Vida,
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_01: which was released in 1968.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_01: And it was released in several versions.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_01: In a 17-minute version, which covered the entire second side of the album.
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_01: And in a 45 RPM single version, which cut the song down to under three minutes.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_01: It's a little like,
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know,
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_01: CCR's Susie Q.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_01: For those who remember,
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_01: there was an enormous 20 minute version that you only heard on FM radio.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_01: Well, it's hard to exaggerate the resonance this song had for boomers.
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_01: No one who heard it in their teens or early 20s for the first time ever forgot it.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_01: Engel called it hard rock,
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_01: but when you listen to it,
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_01: you also realize that it prefigures acid rock,
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_01: probably because you need to be high to enjoy it,
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_01: and heavy metal due to the deafening bass guitar and drums.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_01: And for anyone who cares to ask,
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_01: by the way,
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_01: and this is probably,
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_01: a little kind of millennial footnote,
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_01: you might ask,
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_01: what does it mean,
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_01: Well, in a God of Edah is a slurred rendition of the words in the Garden of Eden, right?
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_01: In a God of Edah, baby.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_01: Anyway, it kind of goes on like that, right?
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_01: And the whole song is a sort of rock age wooing of Eve by Adam in Paradise.
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_01: Well,
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_01: apparently Ingle had been writing the song one night while drinking a whole gallon
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_01: of Red Mountain wine.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_01: When Ingle played the song for his drummer,
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_01: Bushy,
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_01: Ingle was so drunk he slurred the words,
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_01: hardly knowing what he was saying,
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_01: which is how Bushy wrote them down.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_01: Anyway,
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_01: another fun fact about the long version is that when it was recorded,
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_01: the producer accidentally recorded the band riffing on a practice version.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_01: But when it was over, everyone decided it was the best.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_01: You know, you just had to be there, man.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_01: That's all I can say.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_01: You know, if you want to ask any questions, Christian, that's all I got to say.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_01: After 1970,
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_01: with a few new hits,
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_01: Engel apparently grew bored with the band and the Iron Butterfly broke up.
• 10:41
  SPEAKER_01: Although he occasionally did reunions, he focused on other ventures.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_01: He founded several businesses, married three times, and raised six children and three stepchildren.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_01: Doug Engel, gone at age 78.
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_01: And finally, let's not forget Bill Walton.
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_01: the lanky,
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_01: tongue-tied basketball star who broke records playing for Coach John Wooden at UCLA
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_01: in the early 1970s,
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_01: and who wasn't afraid to act like a dead-ed hippie back when most young athletes
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_01: didn't dare act that way.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_01: He died last week at age 71.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_01: Walton was born in 1952 in La Mesa, a town in Southern California.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_01: He grew up as a tall and scrawny kid with something of a speech impediment.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_01: He stuttered a lot.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_01: And though he was raised in a family with no particular connection to sports,
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_01: he quickly gravitated toward playing basketball.
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_01: His father installed a hoop on their property, and pretty soon he was playing all the time.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_01: Walton was a star on his high school team and then went on to play center for UCLA
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_01: under the legendary coach John Wooden from 1970 to 1974.
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_01: In his 87 career games,
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_01: Walton shot 65% from the field,
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_01: averaged 20 points per game,
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_01: 17 rebounds,
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_01: 6 assists.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_01: UCLA was 86-4 in Walton's three varsity seasons.
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_01: What do you think about that?
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_01: He won multiple MVP awards and Game Point Scoring Awards.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_01: After UCLA,
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_01: Walton played in the NBA for as long as he could for the Portland Trailblazers from
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_01: 1974 to 1979.
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_01: for the San Diego Clippers until 1985, and for the Boston Celtics until 1987.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_01: Everyone agreed that Walton was a great NBA center when he was healthy,
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_01: and that turned out to be a big problem during his career.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_01: Walton suffered repeated injuries to his back,
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_01: his knees,
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_01: his ankles,
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_01: and his feet,
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_01: which often hobbled him or kept him out of games.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_01: He said later,
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_01: My feet were not built to last or to play basketball.
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_01: My skeletal structural foundation,
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_01: inflexible and rigid,
• 12:59
  SPEAKER_01: could not absorb the endless stress and impact of running,
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_01: jumping,
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_01: turning,
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_01: twisting,
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_01: and pounding for 26 years.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_01: He underwent an incredible 40 orthopedic surgeries, mostly reconstructive surgeries on his feet.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know, Christian.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_01: He loved the game.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_01: That's all I can say.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_01: He also said, I've never met anybody who stopped playing voluntarily.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_01: I ground my body up.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_01: I've had so many operations.
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_01: I ground my feet up into dust.
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_01: I got a new knee.
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_01: I've got a new spine.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_01: But I'm lucky, he added, because I got to do what I loved.
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_01: After his NBA career,
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_01: Walton went on to become a popular NBA color commentator on TV,
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_01: which is surprising since Walton had grown up with a severe stutter,
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_01: so much so that he hardly ever talked to anybody in his youth.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_01: Apparently,
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_01: Walton trained himself to overcome stuttering at age 28 and thereafter became a
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_01: garrulous talker,
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_01: sort of like,
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_01: I guess,
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_01: Walton.
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_01: King George VI, right?
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_01: So there you go.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_01: There's one other generational observation I would make about Bill Walton,
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_01: the Christian,
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_01: and that is as a college star,
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_01: he was one of the first young athletes that I recall who projected the boomer image
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_01: of a hippie or radical
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_01: Back in an era when most jocks still emulated that clean-cut Johnny Unitas manner, right?
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_01: He wore his hair as long as he, you know, as long as Coach Wooden would allow.
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_01: He was a grateful dead fan.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_01: He championed the causes of black power activists.
• 14:33
  SPEAKER_01: His brief comments to the media included phrases like, cool, far out, I gotta split.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_01: And he considered himself to be a friend of Ken Kesey,
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_01: which I have to say makes me feel a certain kinship with Walton,
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_01: since I too got to know Ken Kesey and his merry band of pranksters back when I was
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_01: a teen growing up in California.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_01: Anyway, Bill Walton, gone at age 71.
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_01: As always,
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_01: let me remind you,
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_01: if you like this podcast,
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_01: please go ahead and share it with your friends and family.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_01: Repost it on social media from now on.
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_01: Only some episodes will remain free.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_01: Christian,
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_01: I think we should take a moment to clarify to listeners that this podcast isn't all
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_01: we do on Substack,
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_01: but that we also put out lots of other content under the name of Demography Unplugged.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_01: That's where we go into demographic, economic, and generational trends.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_00: That's right, Neil.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_00: I just always recommend to our listeners, check out some of our written work.
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_00: You had a very popular piece come out this week on Trump's conviction that I know
• 15:35
  SPEAKER_00: we'll talk about later in the podcast.
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_00: We've done some stuff on the rise of super commuters.
• 15:41
  SPEAKER_00: We've looked at the ages of national leaders all over the world.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_00: And I think we have a lot of really interesting stuff we've been publishing lately.
• 15:48
  SPEAKER_00: So I recommend everyone go and take a look.
• 15:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, please.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_01: Everyone's invited.
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_01: So let's get into today's podcast.
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_01: As always, we have a lot to talk about.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_01: First, we got market news.
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_01: And as usual, we'll be covering stories from around the world.
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_01: We've got we got a number of them.
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_01: Lots happened.
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_01: The jury in the Hushman trial pronounces Donald Trump guilty and all 34 felony
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_01: counts brought against him.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_01: Judge Jose Merchan will sentence him on on July 11th.
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, I did.
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_01: I did write a big piece of that just a few days ago.
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_01: A Delaware jury,
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_01: this was just in today,
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_01: a Delaware jury finds Hunter Biden guilty on all three gun related felony charges
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_01: brought against him.
• 16:35
  SPEAKER_01: No sentencing date has yet been set.
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_01: And New York Governor Kathy Hochul pauses the plan to implement congestion pricing in New York City.
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_01: So be interesting to talk about that abroad today.
• 16:49
  SPEAKER_01: Just a lot of elections, right, Christian?
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_01: After Europeans went to the polls on Friday,
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_01: the results showed that the composition of the EU parliament has moved further to
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_01: the right with big losses for the Greens and Liberals and big gains for all of the
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_01: conservative political groups.
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_01: In India,
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_01: Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP won its third consecutive national election,
• 17:14
  SPEAKER_01: but this time it has lost its absolute majority vote.
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_01: in India's parliament.
• 17:20
  SPEAKER_01: After South Africa's national election,
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_01: the ANC has lost its majority in South Africa's parliament for the first time since
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_01: democracy was established in South Africa in 1994.
• 17:34
  SPEAKER_01: So that's a big moment for South Africa.
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_01: And we'll talk about where South Africa is going.
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_01: And then in Mexico,
• 17:42
  SPEAKER_01: there was the presidential election in which Claudia Scheinbaum,
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_01: AML's protege,
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_01: wins in a landslide,
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_01: getting nearly 60% of all votes cast.
• 17:55
  SPEAKER_01: And finally, I think we'll talk about the U.N.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_01: Security Council unanimously voting to support President Biden's ceasefire proposal
• 18:05
  SPEAKER_01: for the Gaza war,
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_01: putting the pressure on both Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Hamas leadership to agree.
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_01: So with that, why don't you take it away, Christian, and maybe start with the markets?
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_00: All right, Neil, the S&P 500 closed up 0.27% today and over the last five market days is up 1.59%.
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_00: We have an opposite story on the global Dow that fell today 0.81% and over the last
• 18:24
  SPEAKER_00: five market days is down 0.93%.
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_00: The VIX is at 12.85, which is a little bit below what we were seeing in the last week.
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_00: And as for the 10-year treasury, that is at 4.4%, up 7.2 basis points over the last five days.
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_01: Well, you know, I have no comment.
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_01: It is interesting to see the world and the U.S.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_01: in this case so often going together, parting ways a little bit.
• 18:59
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of that, some of that is election reaction, and we'll talk about that later.
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_01: But anyway, go ahead.
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_01: Do we have any economic reports?
• 19:09
  SPEAKER_01: I know we had the jobs report.
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_01: You know, both the NFP as well as the, you know.
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_01: census survey data.
• 19:22
  SPEAKER_00: I have here, Neil, the non-farm payrolls, which jumped from 165,000 in April to 272,000 in May.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_00: This is the largest number we have seen in five months.
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_00: We also have some final PMIs for May.
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_00: We have the S&P PMIs.
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_00: Manufacturing rose from 50 to 51.3, and services rose from 51.3 to 54.8.
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_00: We have ISM PMIs, which were a little bit different, actually.
• 19:53
  SPEAKER_00: Manufacturing fell in this survey from 49.2 to 48.7.
• 19:56
  SPEAKER_00: But services, that rose from 49.4 to 53.8, which is the highest reading we have seen in nine months.
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, this is really interesting to see.
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_01: And by the way,
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_01: just to throw a discordant note in there,
• 20:14
  SPEAKER_01: you didn't really talk too much about the employment level.
• 20:18
  SPEAKER_01: That is to say the CPS data,
• 20:23
  SPEAKER_01: Current Population Survey,
• 20:25
  SPEAKER_01: which interestingly enough showed declining employment over the month.
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_01: and a rising unemployment rate.
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_01: In fact, the year-over-year unemployment rate is actually getting close to a threshold.
• 20:38
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 20:41
  SPEAKER_01: if you regard that as a sort of interesting indicator of bad news down the road,
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_01: I will say that this growing gap between the NFP numbers and the CPS numbers
• 20:57
  SPEAKER_01: is a real puzzle.
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_01: And it gives you two different narratives of the economy to talk about.
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_01: Over time, I really trust the CPS numbers better.
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_01: I think on any given month, there's a lot more uncertainty of the CPS.
• 21:11
  SPEAKER_01: But talking about a trend over time,
• 21:13
  SPEAKER_01: particularly when there could be a change in the direction of the economy,
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_01: you may really want to go with CPS.
• 21:19
  SPEAKER_01: So I will just leave that as a caution note out there.
• 21:23
  SPEAKER_00: All right, Neil, let's do some of these international indicators.
• 21:26
  SPEAKER_00: We have PMIs for the Eurozone for May.
• 21:29
  SPEAKER_00: Manufacturing, that actually fell from 47.3 to, or it rose, I'm sorry, from 45.7 to 47.3.
• 21:33
  SPEAKER_00: That's the highest reading we have seen since March 2023.
• 21:42
  SPEAKER_00: And services were practically unchanged at 53.2.
• 21:46
  SPEAKER_00: And we also had PMIs from China.
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_00: We have NBS PMIs.
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_00: These are mostly companies that are large and state-owned.
• 21:54
  SPEAKER_00: Manufacturing declined from 50.4 to 49.5.
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_00: And non-manufacturing was practically flat at 51.2.
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_00: And then we had the Caixin PMIs, which are smaller Chinese companies.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_00: Manufacturing actually rose in this survey from 51.4 to 51.7.
• 22:11
  SPEAKER_00: That marks seven months of expansion.
• 22:13
  SPEAKER_00: And services also rose from 52.5 to 54.0.
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_00: That is 17 straight months of expansion.
• 22:15
  SPEAKER_00: Cool.
• 22:25
  SPEAKER_01: Interesting.
• 22:26
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 22:26
  SPEAKER_01: Well, we'll see.
• 22:27
  SPEAKER_01: We'll see what happens in China.
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_01: Before the summer slowdown and some of the news.
• 22:34
  SPEAKER_01: So let's move on.
• 22:37
  SPEAKER_01: I can't say it's been a terribly exciting 10 days in the economy.
• 22:42
  SPEAKER_01: Let's move on to our stories.
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_00: Well, Neil, last week, Trump was convicted of all 34 charges in the New York hush money trial.
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_00: He now becomes the first former U.S.
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_00: president convicted of felonies.
• 22:54
  SPEAKER_00: Now,
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_00: Neil,
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_00: there's been a lot of coverage of the events around the specifics of the trial,
• 23:00
  SPEAKER_00: which we've talked about in the past.
• 23:02
  SPEAKER_00: I think...
• 23:03
  SPEAKER_00: More for you.
• 23:03
  SPEAKER_00: I have questions stemming from your article you wrote of,
• 23:07
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_00: who does this conviction benefit and what are the long term effects that this will
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_00: conviction have on American politics?