A Supply-Constrained World Comes into Sharper Focus

Macro Pulse · Mar 26, 2026 · 11m

Markets may be taking some comfort from tentative de-escalation signals in the Middle East, but the economic aftershocks are still working their way through—via energy prices, supply chains and heightened geopolitical risk. This week’s charts focus on:

• The global business cycle — momentum vs resilience

• Elevated (and increasingly structural) uncertainty

• Renewed supply chain stress

• A more complex and uncertain policy backdrop

• Questions around monetary policy credibility

• Oil prices vs still-anchored inflation expectations

A global economy that’s still running—but more fragile, more…