Latest / Know Your Personnel Pod / KYP - Ep#21 MLB Trade Deadline, NFC South Breakdown

Transcript

KYP - Ep#21 MLB Trade Deadline, NFC South Breakdown · Know Your Personnel Pod

• Nathan Hawthorne: And we are live in And we won't tell anybody this is take two. We will not tell Jarod McInroy: Mm-hmm. Nathan Hawthorne: a soul that this is take two. Jarod McInroy: I'm excited today. Nathan Hawthorne: Tell you what, I'm excited today. That intro is never going to get old. And I think everybody here should be excited if you're listening. Cause this is episode 21 of the Know Your Personnel podcast. 21, can you do something for me? And you guys did something for us. You guys made our last video absolutely pop off. You liked, you subscribed, you commented, and we can't thank you enough for it. My name's Nathan Hawthorne. This is my co-host Jared McEnroy. You said you were excited today. What are we excited for? Jarod McInroy: A lot of different things. well first off I want to also add on to that. the goal here, we want to get to a million. We always do. And and that's that's the goal. That we set a goal for ourselves. But you can't get to a million subscribers until you hit seven seventy nine. That's what we're I I had to refresh and check again, but you gotta hit seventy nine before you get to a million. so we appreciate you all. Continue to, you know, subscribe for more content. you really like the division breakdowns. We're gonna give you another one today. We're gonna stick in the South. It's Nathan Hawthorne: Here's another one for you. Jarod McInroy: gonna be NFC South this time. and then the week after that, the week after that, and the week after that until football season finally starts. So tune Nathan Hawthorne: They gon' keep coming. Jarod McInroy: in. If don't don't go and try and search for us. Don't go and try and you know, you want us to pop up on your YouTube feed. If you want that to happen automatically, just hit subscribe and our faces will show up. So that's my sentiment. Nathan Hawthorne: Hit it right now. Do not delay. Jarod McInroy: But I want to start off with one thing. And you know, I I understand. I don't know what what our MLB fan base is like out here, so but I am very passionate about baseball. So I'm gonna talk to it talk about it here and there. The trade deadline was this last week. and when I say this last week I mean just this Monday. And a lot of things happened. The common theme right now is the MLB's probably gonna go into a lockout, for those who don't know. The collective bargaining agreement is up december first, and they are going to fight like hell to get a salary gap in place because ultimately there are a lot of teams pulling some moves that are pretty unacceptable. But I'm not here to complain about it. I'm gonna complain a little bit. The LA Dodgers getting to reach school is unbelievable. It's it's truly, truly unbelievable. To put this in in NBA terms. It's like the Thunder saying, Hey, we're gonna give you Victor Webinyama for Nikola Topic and like th three second round picks. And the Thunder just, yeah, sounds great. Send them on over. All of a sudden they're the best team in the NBA. NFL terms, it's like let's let's assume what's a what's a good example? The LA Rams. Let's let's take Justin Jefferson and put him on the LA Rams already, right? And that's your your, you know, shohe Otani, if you will. Matt Stafford retires. Hey, why don't you give us Patrick Mahomes as well? Like this is the ty this is the level of unfairness this team has and it's it's disgusting. it sucks. Everybody hates it. and Detroit reportedly turned down several better offers. So there's a lot of conspiracies going around about GMs helping other GMs to further stack the Dodgers, so then they have couple of legs to stand on when it comes to arguing about should there be a salary cap in place, should there be, you know, a top of the budget when it comes to paying these players. because ultimately it's less money out of their pockets. Now. Not so fast Dodgers. We're not giving up on the season, okay? You guys can do whatever you want. Baseball's different. It's about who shows up any given night. It's about dominant pitching. There's a lot of really good pitchers in this league. And the Phillies are coming. The Phillies made some good moves. Don't don't sleep on the Phillies. They go and they get Luisa Rayas at second base. huge get for them. Brooks Rayleigh to add to their bullpen. and that's already on to a stack team that's got you know, Zach Wheeler, Chris Sanchez, Jesus Lazardo, Aaron Nola, that's your starting four pitchers. Like that's that's a pretty good rotation to start the postseason with. And then that's aside from, you know, Bryce Harper, Trey Turner, Kyle Schwarber, JT Rail Muto, like the names go on and on. This team is built to face the Dodgers. And I don't want to call it too early. I don't know how everything's gonna stack up in terms of placement of teams 'cause right now They are a wildcard team, so we'll see how the bracket stands out. But man, I think everybody in the MLB right now is banning together. They're they're all all of our fan bases are putting arms around each other right now. Anybody but the Dodgers. And I'll be happy. Anybody but the Dodgers. So that's my little rant there. I don't know if you have you have anything you want to add to it, but man. It sickens me. Nathan Hawthorne: I've got nothing to add. I've got nothing to add other than the top of these divisions seem to be markedly better than the rest. I at least in terms of run differential. and again, you want to start talking about stacking teams. It gets hard when a team has an excellent player, doesn't have them doesn't have the money to build around with other pieces, and the Dodgers can just be like, All right, well, we'll pay him ten trillion dollars to come over and play, and there's nothing that you can do about it. I find that Jarod McInroy: Yeah. And he's also gonna defer it. That's the other piece of it. Like he's not even getting paid that money right now. Nathan Hawthorne: Yeah, everybody the their GM saw that whole Bobby Benilla thing and was like, Hold on, we can just do that for everybody. You know, eventually they're gonna have like fifty players that they're paying two million dollars a year past their retirement. Their their payroll is gonna be not the the players that they're paying for aren't even gonna be on roster. I mean, I'm not an MLB guy, but I tell you what, I love s I love fall baseball. September, October, the playoffs. Jarod McInroy: I can't wait for it. Nathan Hawthorne: I I am so excited for baseball to finally wrap up. No, we are not giving up. Jarod McInroy: And we're not giving up. It's gonna be good. The the product's still gonna be good. I will say when it comes to what they actually decide on later on, I I don't know if I'm necessarily for or against the salary cap. In some cases I'm against it because I always believe in I I'm pro player in every sport. Pay the people, pay the college athletes, pay everybody. These billionaires doing whatever they want to do with their money. If they're willing to spend it, let spend it. But at the same time You look at other leagues that have salary caps in place like the NFL, you know, it it forces you to move on from stars. You can't just keep stacking star after star after star. And I think that's the point of this is to give everybody a shot, give fan bases who have never really had a chance, a chance to go and do something. And it's it's really hard. I mean, anybody any casuals out there have watched Moneyball even, now that's not the most accurate representation, but it's It's the right idea of it's hard when your team has a lot lower payroll to be competitive. yeah, I don't know. And then the Yankees just threw a stinker of an of a trade deadline, man. you you want to get me don't get me started on Brian Cashman, but my very minor rant here is he's the worst GM in all of any sport. He d purposely held George Lombar Jr. in the minors because he knew that if he threw up a stinker of a deadline, he could call him up and everyone would forget everything you've done. And we have forgotten because he did hit a home run last night in his first game. He looks fantastic. We're rejuvenated as a fan base. But what a loser that guy is, man. No bullpen arms. We're depleted. We're using Bednar every single night. just we got a couple bats, but not enough. We still have a catcher who can't even bat his weight. I I don't know what to do. I don't know what to do with this team. Brian Cashman, I hate you. He'll probably hate you next year, even if you do something miraculous. He's gotta go. That's all I got on baseball. Nathan Hawthorne: And I agree firmly. we need to find a way to have a salary cap now. Right? That was solid. Jarod McInroy: Okay. That was pretty good actually. Wow. Nathan Hawthorne: yeah, salary caps don't solve every problems every problem, but it certainly creates a more level playing field. It w it requires you to be a little bit more unique in your approach, think many years ahead, value your draft picks, value what you are bringing up the your developmental teams, your minor leagues. So yeah, I I think it'd be really interesting to see. Jarod McInroy: It also makes your coaches have to be more creative. It makes them more important because now you have to manage a lineup of you know, some where you're gonna have holes and rather than not having any holes to fill. It is what it is. So I got another thing I have to start off with here, g getting into the NFL stuff. Nathan Hawthorne: Let's hit it. Let's hit it. Jarod McInroy: I know I know this is a Jared heavy episode here, but I feel as though you're gonna have a full take of your own and you don't even know what I'm about to get into here. So Nathan Hawthorne: I've got no idea. Jarod McInroy: No, I want to start this off with just this is not walking back anything, okay? Everything I've said in the past still holds true. My opinion has not changed about the past. It is simply a change in how I see the future. Circumstances have changed. I've never questioned Justin Herbert's abilities on the football field. Let's let's start there. I've only questioned his production. I've questioned his ranking because of his production. I've questioned how he shows up in big games, his numbers entirely. I've questioned everything about this man, and my opinion stands true. All the Mike McDaniel hype tapes got me bought in on this team, man. And and I feel like I Nathan Hawthorne: But I'm telling you! Jarod McInroy: and I feel like I finally like that this is the point in the breakup where you're like, You want to go see succeed. You're not sour anymore. You don't care what they didn't do for you. You y they have a new significant other. You want to go see them be successful and have a happy life. So I'm at that point now. It just took me getting there. And man, this team's gonna be a lot of fun. I'm done being salty. I've never loved his head coaching ability from the get go. I thought this dude was corny. I didn't know how he was going to be as a leader. And I've told you time and time and time again, he's a fantastic play creator, one of the best in terms of drawing up plays. now play calling is a whole different story. That is a whole different aspect of the game that you have to be better at. And I think the time around Jim Harbaugh is going to help. I think having other people in his ear, you know, holding him back from making certain decisions or even furthering develop his decision making. I'm sure he's gonna have a decent control of play calling. this thing's gonna work, man. this is my statement right now. The Los Angeles Chargers will be in the AFC championship game this year. That is my declaration. There are four spots for both championship games. One of those four is going to be taken by the Chargers. I don't know who the other ones are gonna be. and this is coming from again, somebody who has done nothing but bag on Justin Herbert. they're gonna be in the championship in and it's for multiple reasons, not just the coaching hiring. They got wide receiver depth, or I hate their wide receiver depth, sorry. but they've added Nathan Hawthorne: Yes, I was about to say. Jarod McInroy: they've added O line depth is what I was trying to say. which we all know in Jim Harbaugh systems he loves building the trenches. they added David Njoku's just an absolute beast of an athlete, catches everything thrown his way, a guy that probably could be used in a lot more creative ways than he's been used in the past, with Kevin Stefansky, who you hate, which we won't get into. but then they go and add Alec Ingold, who I I've watched Alec Ingold be an impactful player for the Dolphins forever. he opens up run schemes. dude Hampton, Vidal, Ke Keaton Mitchell, whoever it is that's back there is gonna have opportunities that they've never seen before, especially his familiarity with Mike McDaniel and his system. Thing's gonna work, man. I'm I hate to say it, it's gonna work. Go ahead. Nathan Hawthorne: I I it is gonna it is gonna work and we talked about it earlier this year when we were going into the quarterback rankings a little bit. I I don't wanna say too much because we will have an episode on the AFC West. We'll break down that entire division and that's what I'm gonna save most of it for. But yes, Mike McDaniel is gonna work. I love the training camp hype that I'm seeing right now. All the plays he's drawing up. It looks fantastic. Justin Herbert's on the sideline, he's loving up with Madison Beer. Man. What a season coming for the star. He this man could not be Jarod McInroy: He couldn't be happier. Nathan Hawthorne: happier. He could use a better wide receiver around him, but I think Trey Harris could develop this year. Again, this is not the time for the AFC West. What is it time for? It is time for the NFC South Division. That is what we are breaking down today. Jarod McInroy: Mm-hmm. Yep, we're gonna break that down today. And I it listen, it was just top of mind. I wanted to get ahead of it before, you know, too much hype comes into this and all of a sudden I'm jumping on a bandwagon. I've put some thought into it. I'm in a good place right now. I had to get it out there. Like like you said, we'll get into that that division later on, but let's start here today with the NFC South. Vegas. Vegas, man. They Nathan Hawthorne: Give us Jarod McInroy: they got some interesting interesting choices here. Nathan Hawthorne: They've got some lines. Give us give us the team names and give us their team totals. We'll start it off just like we did last time. Jarod McInroy: Perfect. So we're gonna start with Atlanta at six and a half. Carolina is seven and a half wins. New Orleans seven and a half wins. And Tampa at eight and a half wins. And very similar to last week. The Vegas does they're admitting they have no idea who's gonna win this division. They don't have a single clue. They don't know all they know is it's gonna be a low win total, yet again, as it was last year and the year before and the year before. and They're probably gonna struggle outside the div the division and they're probably gonna split a lot of games within the division. again, very similar to the division we just broke down last week, but where do we wanna start? Who who who's who's jumping out at you here? Nathan Hawthorne: I just want to say Vegas seems to be putting a lot of and and and rightfully so, a lot of favor and a lot of weight is given to the quarterbacks, which is why I think this division does not have a lot of wins. The least question mark is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with Baker Mayfield. But even then, the way things ended last year, you've got another new offensive coordinator coming in. We really just don't know. So I actually think the best place for us to start here is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and kind of breaking down what they've got this year. Eight and a half wins. I think that this team could win eight games, and there will be a head coaching vacancy in Tampa Bay next year. I love Todd Bowles. I've got tremendous respect for Todd Bowles and what he can do for your defense. But this feels like a Mike Tomlin situation. A guy who is great on his side of the ball. He's a great motivator. Although he has that slow southern slang, he is a great motivator for his team. And again, this year the defense is gonna be elite. They made some excellent pickups in the offseason. But the problem is it is just tone deaf to offense. Do you want to know who their offensive coordinator is? Jarod McInroy: I bet you're gonna tell me. Nathan Hawthorne: I'm gonna tell you right now, it is Zach Robinson. Do you know where Zach Robinson was previously offensive coordinator? The Atlanta Falcons. Jarod McInroy: I have n I couldn't even tell ya. Nathan Hawthorne: The Atlanta Falcons. And what did the Atlanta Falcons do for the last couple of years? Underachieve with average quarterback play done to themselves and very poor and very predictable play calling. And so I just wanna start right there, pass it over to you, and see what you've got to say about the Buccaneers. Jarod McInroy: I have them under eight and a half. I I thought that out of all of the people that they were gonna give the highest win total to, 'cause I mean that's that's basically them saying we think they're gonna win the division, right? If anyone's gonna take a big step back this year, I think it's gonna be them. I think they're d they're just their skill positions in general are depleted. outside of I mean Bucky Irving's obviously pretty exciting, but One guy's not going to do a bunch for you. We've seen a lot of really good running backs and bad systems, but Okay, okay. Nathan Hawthorne: I'll push back there in a second. I'll push back there in a second. Keep going. Jarod McInroy: I'm sure you will. Mike, Mike Evans is gone, but also if he wasn't gone, he would be older, as we've already seen his issues in San Francisco. I I'm not bought in on anybody in their in their room, in their wide receiver room or their running back room. Baker's having the contract issues, which makes me think. Maybe he'll be moved. Maybe this is they'll lose a few games and then they'll decide let's just move Baker Mayfield while we can, and he probably is also wanting out so he can just, you know, maximize the last few years of his career. I I don't know. I d there's a lot of uncertainty with with this team and none of it is making me feel like they're going to jump forward at all. Nathan Hawthorne: Yeah. Jarod McInroy: so that's why I was I was very surprised by the eight and a half number. Nathan Hawthorne: Yeah. I again I think eight is probably their max. My thing with Baker Mayfield is the money is there and it's not the problem from all the reports that are coming out. It's the years. He wants to have a number of years and a little bit more guaranteed on this contract. If again, the plan is to move on from Todd Bowles. Now, again, this is me assuming based on the situation I just said, if Todd Bowles ends up getting fired, the new head coach doesn't want to be married to Baker Mayfield. We already talked about Baker Mayfield. He's a top Somewhere in between top ten to fifteen quarterback in the NFL, but he doesn't have enough to make up for a lack of overall talent on the offense. Now I like Emeka Eggbuka a lot. I think he's gonna be excellent. Mike Evans out the door, that's okay. I like Emeka as my wide receiver one. But then you've got Jalen McMillan, a guy who was injured, including Emeka who was injured last year. Tez Johnson, a little bit more of a gadget guy. and then you've got Chris Godwin, who's had several major injuries throughout his career. So I worry about that receiving court in terms of health. Fully healthy, I really do like what they have, but I don't think that they're gonna be deep enough to deal with a knickknack hamstring and an ankle there. And it's gonna be really hard. Bucky Irving, I think he's fantastic. O line is still strong. You've got Tristan Wirfs. who's the other cat? I'm forgetting up there. Doesn't matter. But the biggest problem is you've got Zach Robinson as offensive coordinator. The only thing that he could do and provide for his name as offensive coordinator is twenty or twenty fourth in points per game. And that's with Bijan Robinson. That's with Drake London, that's with Kyle Pitts and the talent that they had on that offensive roster with the Falcons. So that's my problem. And again, I think the defense is gonna be spectacular. Todd Bowles, they added Alex Anzaloni for linebacker depth. yeah, yes. Todd Bowles always has a great defense. Jarod McInroy: Are they? I I I'm not I'm not sold on their defense either. Nathan Hawthorne: They drafted Ruben Bain, they brought in Alex Roseboom, like they added pieces on their front. Pass rush, which was a problem last year. They could stop the run, couldn't rush the passer. They've got great linebackers, and then you've still got Antoine Winfield Jr. in that backfield. The d again, and Todd Bulls is the defensive guy. They're gonna be great defensively. Offense I think is gonna take a major step back. One because of the offensive coordinator, two, because I think Baker's coming off that high of having both Dave Canales and Liam Cohen, and that offensive receiving core needs to stay healthy. 'Cause if one of goes down that core gets really iffy really fast. Jarod McInroy: Yeah. And the only I agree with everything you said. The only pushback I have is I I just I feel like there's gonna be some growing pains. 'Cause there seems to be I feel like ev any time you bring a lot of new names in, you're like, Okay, the coach is good, the system's good, that's great. You don't know how they're gonna actually work when it comes to playing in that system, you don't know how quickly they're gonna pick the system up. Like there's there's a lot that goes into it. and especially if we have a coach that might be mentally checked out. after a couple losses because he's on the hot seat and no he's on his way out. So th it could go either way. But again, regardless. You gotta score points to win games. Even if you hold the other team to Nathan Hawthorne: Gotta score points, win games. Jarod McInroy: very few, you still have to score points. So Nathan Hawthorne: And you know I'm also sick of? I just gotta rant real quick. Baker, stop Jarod McInroy: Yeah. Nathan Hawthorne: lowering stop lowering the shoulder, dog. How many more games are you gonna miss? Or how many games are you gonna be limited because you're trying to lower your shoulder? It's like now it's not working correctly. Dog, just run out of bounds or slide duh. Your career could look entirely different if you did those things. Anyways, yeah, less than less than eight and a half wins. Eight is the max for this team this year. Jarod McInroy: Since we love speculation and we're talking about Baker, let's just let's just run with my theory for just one quick second. Where would you like to see Baker go if let's say he signs just a deal, they lose a couple games and they decide we're gonna move off, we're gonna blow this thing up. Mid season, who who needs a quarterback that can compete that Baker would just plug in and and give him a chance? Nathan Hawthorne: New Orleans Saints. Indivision. So I don't think that's likely, but the New Orleans Saints desperately need a quarterback. We'll get into that here in a second. I think that's an option. I feel like you have a team in mind. Is it the San Francisco forty Niners? I'm kidding. You guys hated that you gu you guys hated that take, by the way. KYP hated that take, but Jarod McInroy: I I don't replace the same guy with the same guy? No, but anyways And and the whole point of it went right right over their heads and I expected it. I expected it. We're not gonna piss off Forty Niner fans today. We'll let have a day off. I don't necessarily have a place in mind, but I could see a team like a Pittsburgh or somebody where like let's say Aaron Rodgers maybe gets banged up a little bit. just like but he got him a couple wins. I could see him go into a place like that. Or I I don't I don't see him not being the guy though. I don't I don't know why he would ever be like, Yeah, send me to a place where I'm gonna be kinda like when he went to the Rams where it was just like they were bad, they needed someone to play the position and he went and did it. Nathan Hawthorne: And he did pretty good for the last four games. Jarod McInroy: He looked good for But yeah. So let's let's jump over to New Orleans since you're you're talking about him a bit. Nathan Hawthorne: Is he is he the Cardinals quarterback next year? Jarod McInroy: Maybe. Who knows? Hey, Carson Beck's about to get a shot here. Nathan Hawthorne: No. All right. Okay, New Orleans Saints, seven and a half wins. I'm gonna have to take the under here. I'm gonna have to take the under on seven and a half wins. I think I don't even think seven's the max. I think six is the max mah. Wow, the max. This team is gonna be better on offense than people expected, but this team is going to be absolutely buns on defense. I think Tyler Shuck has proven that he can be a good quarterback. And at the same token, he can be a very bad quarterback. His rating was either 100, you know, upper 90s 100, or it was like 60. So there's not a lot of in-between, and it's very dependent on the defenses that he's facing. Now, you've kind of got some revamp skill positions for Kellen Moore to play with. I love him as your head coach and your primary play caller. You acquired Travis Etienne, you re-signed Olave, you've still you drafted Jordan Tyson. Like I like that core of weapons there. I think that's gonna be really solid. And again, as the year progresses, I think things are gonna look really, really good in New Orleans offensively. However, Do you know who their defensive coordinator is? Jarod McInroy: You're gonna tell me. Nathan Hawthorne: I'm gonna tell you, it's Brandon Staley. And so when I say that this team, this team's offense is gonna be better than we think, this defense is gonna be bad. Okay. On average, Jarod McInroy: god. Nathan Hawthorne: on average, his defenses have allowed 25 points per game. And this is with a a defense when he was with the Chargers that had talent everywhere, and they still couldn't stop a nosebleed. Run game coverage is bad, pass game coverage is bad. There's no communication, no consistency. And it has never been good. You know what he benefited from? A guy named Aaron Donald. And every stop since, whether that was with the Chargers, horrible defense. And then in 2024, he was the Niners DC slash Jarod McInroy: Terrible. Nathan Hawthorne: assistant head coach. That was their worst defensive year in a number of years without Robert Salah. I mean, but they've got calent Cam Jordan's getting older. You've got Kool-Aid McKentry, you've got Godshaw, but just good luck. So I think offense is gonna be doing this, defense is gonna be doing this, it's gonna result in an inability to close out games and you're just gonna lose more games than you should because it's bad. Jarod McInroy: Yeah. The seven and a half number was really hard for me. Nathan Hawthorne: Why? Why was that hard? Jarod McInroy: Because I I hear you. I really like Kellen Moore. I do like their offense and I like the upside of Tyler Shuck. That's the part of me where I'm like, okay, they could make a jump. They could be scrappy. You can scrap eight wins. I've seen teams scrap eight wins. The Miami Dolphins were a terrible team last year and finished with seven wins. Terrible. And they still finish with seven. So that's why I'm like I could see him getting eight. I I had a tough time. I didn't know if I wanted to go slightly over, slightly under. It's gonna be seven or eight. I I don't know it's gonna be more or less than that. And Okay. Nathan Hawthorne: Hear me out. I just I wanna add I wanna support your case here that they could do it and it is under one condition. Brandon Saley is fired by Thanksgiving. Kellen Moore Jarod McInroy: Okay. Nathan Hawthorne: recognizes that it's just not working and he makes the decision to move on before the rest of the season goes to waste. Please continue. Jarod McInroy: Okay. Yeah. I and listen, that very well could be a thing because all of a sudden, let's say things start clicking on offense and then they lose a bunch of games because they're giving up forty points. that could that could be a problem pretty quick, but like you said, they added Travis Etienne, like weird pickup, but more good players is never a bad thing. It's never a bad thing. Yep, you Nathan Hawthorne: And you've still got Kamara. That's a good one too. Jarod McInroy: still got Kamara, Like we said, Tyson with with Olave will be a great pairing. They got Noah Fant, who's kinda whatever, but still a relia Nathan Hawthorne: Serviceable tight end. Jarod McInroy: serviceable. and now he's pretty much a vet. So he's been around and been around some good teams. I just I think they're gonna be scrappy again. I d I don't hate them and I I believe in Kellen Moore as a coach. So for that if I ha I have to pick something, Vegas won't let me say, Hey, I think they're gonna finish somewhere around there I'm gonna say they're gonna finish with eight wins. I know Nathan Hawthorne: Okay. And I Jarod McInroy: I know it I know it's tough to it's tough but like I have to pick a side. I like them just a little bit more than I hate them. I don't think they're gonna win the division. I don't let me also also say this. There will be one team from this division in the playoffs. It's going to be the division winner. It's typically that but you look at Exactly Exactly Nathan Hawthorne: They went in with a losing record last year. The Panthers did. Losing record. Jarod McInroy: so With that being said, there's only one of these that making the playoffs, regardless of what their win totals are. I just don't think they're gonna be the one that wins it. Eight is their max. They are not winning nine games. I will make that declaration. But it's hard to convince myself that they're gonna win seven and not eight. With that being said, I'm Nathan Hawthorne: I get I get it. Jarod McInroy: not putting any money on It's not happening. Don't do it. I wouldn't I wouldn't recommend you do it. I wouldn't recommend anybody do it. Let's avoid Nathan Hawthorne: No. Jarod McInroy: the line. It's a dangerous line. You wanna move the line? Move the line. You wanna move it up to eight and a half? Go ahead. Nathan Hawthorne: And i and for my Saints super fans, I don't wanna disrespect Chase Young. He's an excellent player, he's still on the defense. I don't wanna disrespect Justin Reed, he's a great safety. I saw Khalil Mack dominate defensively with the Chargers Jarod McInroy: Derwin James. Nathan Hawthorne: and Dir and with Brandon Saley and s they they still couldn't do anything. So again, my my question is not a lack of talent on that defense. My question is is who is structuring that defense and who is calling the plays for that defense? 'Cause that's a bigger problem. Jarod McInroy: That Chargers defense was stacked, man. Any competent de defensive coordinator. Yeah. Anyways. Nathan Hawthorne: Dog, do you see what Jesse Jesse Mentor did with him in the first year? It was all of a sudden like, whoa, this defense is entirely different. So incredible. Jarod McInroy: Yeah. So that's that's the Saints. That's all we got on the Saints. I think we need to jump over to before we get to Carolina, I think we need to get into Atlanta. I I was gonna save Atlanta for last. Nathan Hawthorne: You don't want me to get into Atlanta. Jarod McInroy: I was gonna save Atlanta for last, but if we're talking overs, six and a half games, I'm I'm hitting the over. This is another Nathan Hawthorne: Have to. Jarod McInroy: case. I'm this is another case of I one I thought This should have been the line for New Orleans. I thi if that was the case, if it was six and a half, then I certainly would have given them the over. But like I I feel like I would have if I'm Vegas, I would have flip flopped these two. And I don't understand why you would give New Orleans an edge to Atlanta. I Nathan Hawthorne: quarterback play. Jarod McInroy: I get that. I get that. I hear you. And it's two injured quarterbacks. It's two quarterbacks who haven't shown that they can be healthy and on the field. With that being said, they two at a minimum is fully healthy at this moment. and Penix is there saying somewhere around week one, week two, he's gonna be back to fully healthy. and I think they're kind of using that as an excuse to decide that they want to choose Tua without hurting the confidence of Michael Penix. And then they can always backtrack from there. Say, hey, we don't want to rush you back. you know, it's which is really let's see how Tua does. And then when he comes back, if he's doing terrible, plug him in. If not, it's it's a great political move for for everybody in the front office of the of the Atlanta Falcons, but Nathan Hawthorne: You can always go to Cooper Rush. Don't forget that, Kevin. Don't forget it, Kevin. Jarod McInroy: Yeah, okay. Okay. but they added Zachariah Branch, they added Zacchaeus, they added Brian which who was previously on the team before, Brian Robinson Jr. there's they they they added some pieces and that's already to, you know, B. John Robinson, that's already to Drake London, Kyle Pitts, like w we know who they got. They got they got a bunch of guys. I know you're gonna go in on Kevin Safansky. I'll let you have that moment here soon. I don't trust him either. I don't trust the QB health. But on paper, if we're looking at this team, seven wins should be more than achievable. It should be more Nathan Hawthorne: Yes. Jarod McInroy: than achievable. And I'm hitting the over. I again, I don't think they're gonna win the division. We have one final team we'll talk about in a minute, but I think they'll be in that same area. As the Saints. That's seven, eight wins. They're gonna have a chance to beat each other. That that's a four wins for everybody if they all split. and hey, if they all signed up today and they said, Hey, let's all just go four and four and then we'll deal with the rest, I think they would all sign up for it. All four teams. And I don't want to be Nathan Hawthorne: No doubt. Jarod McInroy: disrespectful here, but that's all I got. What do you got on give give it to me? Nathan Hawthorne: As as much beef as I have with Kevin Stefansky, he is a good coach to a degree. I don't think he's the coach that gets you over the hump, but he did win an NFL coach of the year. He did. He made some pretty great things happen in Cleveland, despite a number of horrible things going on with the franchise, and despite not being on the same page with your own GM. So again, as much as I'm frustrated with Stefansky's offense and its vanilla-ness and its unwillingness to change and only play a certain way, it does to an To an extent work. Now, you've got two running backs, B. John Robinson and Brian Robinson. Don't get lost feeding the ball to Bijan Robinson 9,000 times a game. Okay. He's not going to be used in the pass game. He'll be used in the screen game, not the pass game. The running back in the pass game is not a part of Stefansky's offense. So that's already taken out for Bijan Robinson. So again, make sure that you're toting the rock evenly throughout the season. We saw how he wore down Nick Chubb. It's just not worth it in this day's and age NFL. You've got an excellent O-line. You've got Lynch Rom, you've got Bergeron, and you added Juwan Taylor. Like that's going to be a physical big O-line to deal with. They're going to be able to run the rock, but after you run the rock, this offense relies so heavily on that play action game. I'm not worried about play action if Tua can't throw the ball more than 15 yards down the field or over the middle. I'm not worried about play action. If Michael Penix isn't healthy enough to make that run happen. So again, my my issue is more so with quarterback play this year. I think they've got more than enough talent on that offensive side of the ball. I think Stefanski is a capable coach. And their defense, Jeff Ulbrick, I think, is a solid guy. Or not Jeff, yeah, Jeff Ulbrick. he's the defensive coordinator. I think he's great. You've got Jesse Bates, you've got AJ Terrell, you've got Mike Hughes, you drafted Avion Terrell. There's a lot of really positive things on the defense. Your defensive front isn't super strong, but I think Jeff Obreck as a Robert Salah guy is gonna be able to do some positive things. So again, Jarod McInroy: Yeah. Nathan Hawthorne: I think it's gonna be hard for them it's gonna be hard for them not to win eight games, and it will all depend on do we get a healthy quarterback or not. So I think eight is truthfully the minimum for this team. And I do think that the Carolina Panthers probably win the division, but it's gonna be between the Atlanta Falcons and the Panthers. Jarod McInroy: A hundred percent. It could go either way. When I say I don't think they're going to, that doesn't mean they're not going to and it just means if I had to take a educated guess, only one person can win. I would give Carolina the edge, but this team is more than capable of winning it. I will say I'm taxing you twice 'cause you've said Robert Salah's name two times now and you have a a five episode ban on his name. you keep throwing him in there. But Nathan Hawthorne: Do you see how I can I'm gonna I'm you guys are gonna see. I'm going to weave him into every single episode. There will not be an episode where we don't mention Robert Sala. You know what? Hop into the comments right now. Give me a Robert Sala count down below. And I want to see Jarod McInroy: unbelievable. It's truly truly unbelievable. Nathan Hawthorne: that comment carried to each and every video from here on out. Robert Sala count starts now. Jarod McInroy: But yeah, here's I will fight back a tiny bit. And again, I'm in that s I'm in that stage of I want to see him Nathan Hawthorne: Sure. Fight. Give me some Jarod McInroy: succeed. I think the hate on Tua is Nathan Hawthorne: Justified. Jarod McInroy: it's e it's not not entirely though. I we why are we pretending like he doesn't have good qualities of a quarterback? We we all say he can't throw the ball fifteen yards. That's not entirely true. He was throwing timing routes In a system that wasn't necessarily best fit for him. Mike McDaniel and him were never going to work together. He Mike McDaniel was trying to scheme plays for him and he was trying to work within his system. I don't think that was ever really the correct marriage for them. We're gonna get a see see him in a new system. Give him a chance. He has the ability. He d I mean, he did he fool everybody? Everybody was saying his name when it came draft night. They everybody was saying two is the next the next guy when he was at Alabama. Everyone said, let's bench him, get Jalen Hurts out of here, let's let's get him in the game, let's give him a season. They ran him off to Oklahoma. Like so let's not all backtrack and pretend no one was in on Tua before. It's all still there, regardless. Nathan Hawthorne: College football is different than the NFL, but proceed. Jarod McInroy: Okay, and he om he got N V Potes in Nathan Hawthorne: But proceed. Jarod McInroy: twenty twenty three. Like there's he he has done it at this level. It's he hasn't been on the field consistently. He has had a lot of agree th this is the other part. His turnovers are egregious. They're terrible. Yeah, they're and he's never made the important throw. Nathan Hawthorne: generational bread tosser especially when it's important if there's any sort of if there is a primetime game or a big game forget about it Sunday Jarod McInroy: He's never made the important throw. It sickens me. Nathan Hawthorne: Sunday one o'clock window in Indianapolis guy's unbelievable Jarod McInroy: yeah. Nathan Hawthorne: Sunday night football at Arrowhead invisible Jarod McInroy: But anyways, all I'm saying is there's been a number of quarterbacks who have hit their second stop and it's worked. So I'm not ruling it out. And I'm not holding on to any of this baggage of the Miami Dolphins. I think it's a fresh start form. It's a great system go to go into, a great team to go into, and it could work out. That's all I'm saying. Nathan Hawthorne: All I'm saying is we saw a lefty Hawaiian quarterback run the Kevin Stefanski offense last year, Dylan Gabriel. Jarod McInroy: Okay. Nathan Hawthorne: I'm reaching a little far on that one. But yeah, I I Jarod McInroy: He should have brought over. They should have completed the three lefty Q B room, but Nathan Hawthorne: Come on it wa it was that easy to do. And that's another reason Stefansky will Jarod McInroy: Did you see who we brought over though? who else he brought over, or who he actually brought over? Nathan Hawthorne: No, who do you who do you bring over? Jarod McInroy: He brought over his O. C. He brought over Tommy Reese. and Nathan Hawthorne: Yeah, I but who c who cares? Stefansky's the one calling it. Jarod McInroy: Do you know why? So can he knows he can bully somebody pretty much. Like he's like, I don't want anyone getting in my way. I want someone who has Nathan Hawthorne: No. Jarod McInroy: worked under me. If I'm that guy, I'm like, get me out of here. Like it's a job. Nathan Hawthorne: And that's and again, that's the that's the problem with Kevin Stefansky. It's not that he can't design a great system and be a solid play caller. It's that once he's out of those four plays that he has, if they're not working, there's nothing else. There's no wrinkles. And you're not gonna add wrinkles with a quarterback Jarod McInroy: We'll see. Nathan Hawthorne: like Tua, respectfully. Tua's not a wrinkle guy. Tua's a this is the play Jarod McInroy: Panics could be. Nathan Hawthorne: sheet guy. Pinnacks, I I hope so. Guy had unbelievable Jarod McInroy: We'll see. Nathan Hawthorne: arm talent and inaccuracy. I hope that things work out for him. But again, he was ninety-four when he got into the league off of like fifteen leg injuries. So we'll see. Carolina Panthers, the division winners. Jarod McInroy: Yeah. Let's get into the big dogs. Nathan Hawthorne: The division winners, the Carolina Panthers. Seven and a half wins. I'm assuming you're taking the over here. Jarod McInroy: Of course, man. I and listen, I don't know if it was just me. I I feel like everybody should have been moved by that playoff game against the Rams. They had them on the ropes. They should have won the game. I think any any just they they clearly didn't have the experience. They didn't they clearly Nathan Hawthorne: No. Jarod McInroy: didn't have what it took to finish that game off, and you are going against I I think it was consensus across the league when they did a poll that Sean McVay's the best. coach in the NFL, which some could agree, some may disagree, whatever. They looked great. They made a jump. I it's a very similar sentiment to the I would say kind of like to the Jacksonville Jaguars in a sense of like we saw them make a jump and now we need to expect them to do it again. they made they haven't really lost anybody. They made a few pretty cool additions to the defense. Jalen Phillips, another Miami Dolphin, Devin Lloyd, and then they added a bunch of lineman depth. They added like I want to say three linemen, John Mechie to the wide receiver room to add to already having Ted McMillan, Jalen Jalen Coker and Xavier Legg, and Jimmy Horn, by the way. Don't forget about Colorado legend Jimmy Horn. He can he can move a little bit. Nathan Hawthorne: Yeah, baby. He can scoot. Jarod McInroy: but no, I I I think that game should have convinced everybody like they are legit. And that was an important game. Again, yes, I know. They didn't finish it off, regardless. They're gonna make another jump. I I see their win total like genuinely being around ten. I think they could be a ten win team. I'm more comfortable if I had to take an educated guest saying nine, but it's certainly more than seven and a half. I I I don't know where they came up with that number. again, the very, very weird odds that they're putting out in Vegas. What what what before you tell me what you think is gonna happen, tell me why you think Vegas show seven and a half for Carolina and then get into it. Nathan Hawthorne: I think they chose why because of the defense. I think the defense for Carolina is feisty at times, but people have been able to run the ball with them at will. And when you can't stop the run, you can't control the clock. If you can't control the clock, you can't control your possessions and ultimately your opportunity to win and close out games. So that's why. Quarterback play and inability to stop the run last year. Those were the two big problems. If you played the Panthers last year, your running back in fantasy had eight j bajillion yards. And those are the two reasons why it's seven and a half wins. Jarod McInroy: It's interesting. No, Nathan Hawthorne: You know what I'm saying? Yeah. Jarod McInroy: I hear ya. I hear ya. It's just I mean, they had those problems last year and they won the division. Nathan Hawthorne: Yeah, did they win the division or did the Buccaneers absolutely the Buccaneers and the Falcons absolutely fall apart? Because on paper, Jarod McInroy: Yeah, they both do. Nathan Hawthorne: they both they both just fell apart. Now, again, the Panthers, they had a nice midseason stretch. They struggled at the end of the season last year because they played great defenses. I think they got ate up by Seattle, but obviously by the Rams. They got ate up by somebody else on that defensive side. It might have been the Bucks late in the year. My I struggle with the Panthers for one reason and one reason only. I love the continuity with Canales kind of being your primary cook play caller and head coach coming back. you've got Iviro as your defensive coordinator. I think he's a great defensive coordinator and a great leader, gets the guys all playing on the same page. But Bryce Young has to stop showing the flashes. He's kind of like he's he's like a J.R. Smith right now, just incredibly streaky. He's either giving you zero points or he's throwing for like 300 yards, four touchdowns type situation. We need him to close that gap a little bit. He's thrown for a better completion percentage and more yards every year. He was like fifty-nine percent and then sixty percent. And then last year he finished somewhere close to sixty-four percent. He had twenty-three touchdowns, eleven picks, so he's taking better care of the ball in taking better care of the ball in the air. He needs to take less bad sacks and he needs to be able to distribute the f football more consistently to players outside of Tet and Coker. Which I think is going to be able to do this year. I also think people need to watch out for Jonathan Brooks on the ground. Chubb Hubbard, your job is not safe. Jonathan Brooks is unreal. Lightning speed, great between the tackles, great on the outside. So there's plenty of talent I love on offense. Defense, I'm not as psyched about. but that's kind of what this division is outside of the Buccaneers. Jarod McInroy: Yeah, they don't. That's you know how we were talking about, like you you said you don't want to go into Nashville. you want to go Nathan Hawthorne: You don't. Jarod McInroy: into every one of these cities. I'll tell you what, none of truly have I mean, okay, outside of New Orleans has a very strong fan base, so it's kind of a tough pla place to play, but if they're not winning the fans also don't really show up for But I Nathan Hawthorne: But yeah, like you said, I I love that addition, sorry to keep going, of Jalen Phillips, Lee Hunter. you got you picked up Devin Lloyd, who was one of the great linebackers for Jacksonville for a number of years. So they're doing some things and moving things in the right direction, which is what I like to see. But yeah, Bryce Young has to take that big step and just be more consistent. Pose it. Jarod McInroy: Let me pose you a question. Is is Bryce Young a top fifteen quarterback in this league? Nathan Hawthorne: I think he can be, but I think he can also be bottom twenty five. Jarod McInroy: Bottom tw I don't think I understand those numbers. Nathan Hawthorne: So he can he can either be in the top fifteen or he can be twenty five or worse. Jarod McInroy: So like a backup is thirty two. Nathan Hawthorne: Br there's thirty two there's thirty two teams. So when I say he Jarod McInroy: Yeah. Nathan Hawthorne: can be in the bottom twenty five, he'll k he can be as bad as Kenny Pickett. He can Jarod McInroy: That's forty. Nathan Hawthorne: be as bad as Kenny Pickett when Kenny Pickett was a starter. Or Desmond Ritter when he started for the Falcons. Jarod McInroy: So you're saying there's backups who should be starting over? Nathan Hawthorne: That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying of Yeah, there's Jarod McInroy: There's thirty two teams. There you can either be in the top fifteen or you can be in the bottom seventeen mathematically. Nathan Hawthorne: He's in the bottom 25 of the ther he can be in the bottom twenty-five of the thirty-two starting NFL QBs. He can be in the top 15 of the 32 starting QBs, but he can be in the bottom 25. Golly, somebody help me out here. Yes. But that that middle ground. Jarod McInroy: So keep I see what you're saying. Okay, so both can be true. I g I hear what you're say I hear what you're saying though. So like he's in the very back that's a weird way of just saying he's in the back half of the top fifteen though, at best, is what you're saying. Nathan Hawthorne: Yeah, he's in he can be inside the top fifteen. I've seen him flirt with twelve. I've seen him flirt with that twelve spot. Jarod McInroy: Really? Nathan Hawthorne: But I've also seen him flirt with, my gosh, this guy's gotta go. Andy Dalton, get in there. We've seen it happen. Jarod McInroy: Yeah. I have a tough time with with with this one. I again, like you said, he has flashes. Nathan Hawthorne: Again, like he just he does really cool things. Jarod McInroy: He he has flashes. he also does a lot of he has a lot of games where like he just he just did good enough. Like and and that's that can be really important in this league. If if you have the team built around you and you're not the dog on the team, you have people like Tet that can go, you know, have insane games and and be the the real like impactful player for a win and he just does okay, that's fine too. Don't be the one that hurts your team though. That's that's where it can become a problem. But like you said, they also don't really have the defense where just being okay is gonna really cut it. So he's gonna make Nathan Hawthorne: But yeah. Jarod McInroy: a s big step forward. I think at best. I don't think he's inside the top fifteen though. Have a hard time. I think it's like si he's Nathan Hawthorne: On yeah, I agree. Jarod McInroy: he's somewhere between sixteen and twenty. Nathan Hawthorne: I think he I think he's seventeen. Jarod McInroy: Okay. And is that 'cause you like sixteen Nathan Hawthorne: I think he's seventeen. Kinda looks seventeen. Jarod McInroy: names better or he just he just feels like a seventeen to you? Nathan Hawthorne: That's because sixteen's afraid of seventeen. That's why. Jarod McInroy: Okay. Nathan Hawthorne: Absolutely no purpose to it. but yeah, this is I think a nine win team minimum. I think they could squeeze out ten wins. I hate to say it for both of these divisions. A lot of their wins are going to come from each other. They're probably you're they're probably gonna split a lot of games this year. but if you want to win the division, you're gonna have to sweep somebody. I don't think that yeah, it's just gonna be hard to sweep somebody in this division consistently. Jarod McInroy: I and I think I think we can lock in right now. If any of them get to ten wins, that means they're the division winner. Like they Nathan Hawthorne: Probably. Jarod McInroy: they won the division. There's no time two of these teams are not getting to ten. That would be that would be quite absurd. So give me your final let's wrap this thing up with who's finishing first, second, third, and fourth. Nathan Hawthorne: I gotta say by default, based on talent and coaching ability, it is the Atlanta Falcons. I know I just talked about the Carolina Panthers. Carolina Panthers number two. I think I think there's gonna be enough quarter quality quarterback play for the Falcons. So Falcons one, Carolina Panthers two, Tampa Bay Buccaneers third, and then last is going to be the Saints. Jarod McInroy: You just backtracked everything you just said. We just spent Nathan Hawthorne: I didn't Jarod McInroy: we spent thirty minutes doing this thing and you threw me a curveball here. That's more of a knuckle ball. Nathan Hawthorne: I sp I did I did I did throw a curveball. I do again, I know that I've got a dislike for Kevin Stefansky, but I just think from a pure roster perspective, they have the most talent and consistent coaching to get it done. And if they get good quarterback, just good quarterback play, they're gonna win the division. Jarod McInroy: All right. Nathan Hawthorne: Give me yours. Gimme yours. Jarod McInroy: I have Carolina finishing one, Atlanta Nathan Hawthorne: Okay. Jarod McInroy: two, and again it's really hard to choose those two. It's I think it's gonna be one of the two. If I have to choose one, I'm gonna say Carolina slightly edges them out right now. Carolina one, Atlanta two, New Orleans three, and I think Tampa's going to have the dumpster fire of a season that honestly will be better for them in the long run. Mm there are so many teams out there that would agree there's a time to call it and I feel like just enough of these pieces are aging and you have enough young, talented pieces to start building around where it's like, let's redo this thing. and I think this is the year that that happens, so Nathan Hawthorne: I want you to do something for Jarod McInroy: See. Nathan Hawthorne: me. I want you to rate the quarterbacks in this division. And let's assume I'm gonna assume Jarod McInroy: Like best to worst? Nathan Hawthorne: yeah, best worst. I'm gonna assume that Tua's the starter. So between Tua, Bryce, Baker, and Tyler, rate those quarterbacks. One through four. Jarod McInroy: Baker one, Bryce two, two a three, Tyler Shook four. Nathan Hawthorne: Okay. Jarod McInroy: And I don't think that yeah, I think that's I'm pretty comfortable doing that. Nathan Hawthorne: So the third best quarterback is going to take third in your division standings. Jarod McInroy: What? No, I said Atlanta's gonna either be first or second. Nathan Hawthorne: Right. So but Baker Mayfield you said was the best quarterback, right? Jarod McInroy: Yeah. Nathan Hawthorne: And he's gonna in your division standings, you had Tampa Bay finishing third, or did I hear that incorrectly? Jarod McInroy: Fourth. Nathan Hawthorne: Fourth. Jarod McInroy: I do. I think they're Nathan Hawthorne: Yeah. Yeah. Jarod McInroy: I think they're gonna struggle. I think they're gonna really struggle. Like I said, I don't know if Baker's gonna be on the team by the end of the year. I think that Nathan Hawthorne: Fair. Jarod McInroy: we'll see how quickly these contract things work, but I think we know what Baker's here and this is one thing I this isn't even a knock. This is like more of I respect how Baker is always an advocate for himself. I didn't have any trouble with what he said in the media, maybe not the right place or time, regardless. He said, I've proved it to you. He has proved it to them. That it it it is now the ball is in their court now to make a decision. Are you going to put your time, your money, and your faith in him or release him? Let him go. They it's you can't have your cake and eat it too. You're not he's not gonna sit and watch this team tank for a year, fire the coach, do all of this again. He's what, thirty one, thirty two now? It and he's still playing really well. It's it's one it's one or the other. We're either going all in and we think we can win or we don't. So, it'll be interesting. I don't think he's gonna be a Tampa Bay Buck by the end of the year though. Nathan Hawthorne: I could see that. But there better be a huge plan to bring another quarterback in. Whether that's you tank hard enough to get one of the quality Jarod McInroy: Big draft coming up. Nathan Hawthorne: quarterbacks in the draft. Yeah, exactly. Or you make a move. I don't know. Jarod McInroy: See, not gonna speculate too much here. Nathan Hawthorne: That's gonna that's gonna wrap it up. Golly, this division is so interesting. but what a time to be alive and what a time to be a listener of the Know Your Personnel podcast. Make sure you like, make sure you subscribe. You're gonna want to see everything that we have to offer when we do these division breakdowns. My name's Nathan Hawthorne. Once again, this is my co-host Jared McEnroy, and we will see you guys on the next one.