Latest / INSIGHT TODAY / Regime change_ The real test of Trumps Iran strategy Fareeds Take

Transcript

Regime change_ The real test of Trumps Iran strategy Fareeds Take · INSIGHT TODAY

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Here's my take.
• 0:02
  Speaker 2: My first reaction to news of the death of Ayto
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: Lahamini was relief. Relief for the ninety two million Iranians
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: who are freed from the grip of an eighty six
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: year old tyrant, a man who over nearly four decades
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: ran his country into poverty at home and isolation abroad.
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: How Many was the hardest of the hardliners who defined
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: Iran's unyielding opposition not only to America and the West
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: and Israel, but also to freedom for his own people.
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: He shaped the modern Islamic Republic into the strange hybrid
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: regime that it is run by clerics, military officers, and bureaucrats,
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: all repressive, dysfunctional, and corrupt to the core.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: No one should mourn his passing.
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: But when we step back and ask where does this
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: go next? Things look murky. President Trump has chosen to
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: go to war with a country that did not pose
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: an imminent threat to the United States. His claims to
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: the contrary are belied by his own words. After the
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: United States bombed Iran last June, the President loudly and
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: repeatedly declared that he had obliterated Iran's nuclear program. Yet
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: eight months later, he asked us to believe that this
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: obliterated program posed such an urgent threat to the United
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: States that Trump had to act without seeking authorization from
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: the United States Congress. In his brief speech announcing the attack,
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: President Trump revealed the true purpose.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Of the military action, regime change.
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: He explicitly called on the Iranian people to overthrow their government.
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: In doing so, he has defined the purpose of this
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: war and the measure by which it will be judged
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: a success or failure. Historically, reg team change from the
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: air has rarely taken place. I cannot think of a
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: single case in which a government fell without military forces
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: on the ground actually doing the toppling. And more broadly,
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: the record of American sponsored regime change in the Middle
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: East is not a happy one, from Afghanistan to Iraq
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: to Libya. There's always the possibility that this time will
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: be different, that Iranians are more educated and desperate for freedom,
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: but it is likely to be a long and complex struggle.
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: Fears of a broader regional war are likely unfounded because
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: Iran has already acted in self defeating ways that are
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: uniting the region against it. Rather than drive a wedge
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: between the United States and the Gulf States, which had
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: expressed neutrality in this conflict. Tehran went after the Gulf
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: States in attacks that caused little military damage, but incense
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: those countries. Above all is the basic reality. Iran is
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: very weak. Iran's dozens of its leaders killed in airstrikes.
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: Its allies like Hesbulla and Hamas are also in tatters. Meanwhile, Israel,
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia and the UAE are bristling with military might.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: Yet none of this will easily translate into success on
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: the terms that Trump has implied regime change and a
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: substantially better government for the long suffering Iranian people. The
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: most likely outcome is that a badly bruised government stays
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: in power with new faces.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Perhaps the military becomes more powerful.
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: And the Mulla is less so perhaps Iran comes back
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: to the table with even more concessions on the nuclear issue.
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: President Trump seems already to have recognized the complexity of
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: the regime change strategy, and has floated the idea that
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: one of his off ramps might be to deal with
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: new leaders of the same regime.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: But once you call for the overthrow.
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: Of a government, that becomes the definition of success or failure.
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: There is also the legacy of the way that Trump
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: went to war.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: The United States has a messy and far.
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: From perfect record of using force abroad, but in modern
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: times it has usually done so by first defining the
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: broad principles at stake, working with international law and organizations,
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: building a broad coalition of allies, and consulting with Congress
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: and the American people.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: None of this was.
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: Done in Operation Epic Fury, an apt name. This was
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: a decision making process that was fast and furious, as
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: much about a dramatic show of strength as anything else.
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: As other countries look around and think about what kind
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: of world they're living in, what rules they can rely on,
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: what institutions they look to for stability, they're confronted by
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: the reality that the world's leading nation, the creator of
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: the international rules based system, has said loudly and clearly,
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: might makes right. It's a new rule that will gladden
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: the hearts of Shijinping and Vladimir Putin.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: And this justin.
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: US Central Command says three US service members were killed
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: in action as part of Operation Epic Fury and five
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: more were seriously wounded. Joining me now is retired Admiral
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: James Stavritis. The former Native Supreme Allied commander and a
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: vice chair at the Carlisle Group. Admiral welcome and tell
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: us first what has surprised you so far about the
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: military side of things as you look at where we
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: stand now Day two, day three.
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: I'm happy to tell you what surprised me, and I will.
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: But first, whatever your political persuasion, wherever you are on
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: the political spectrum, or however you feel about this set
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: of events, please take a moment and hold those servicemen
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: and women in your thoughts, your prayers, raise a glass
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: to them if that is your tradition. That is fifty
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: thousand US sailors, airmen, marines, Army commanded by the way
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: by an Admiral, Admiral Brad Cooper of US Central Command,
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: and we're just learning of the deaths of three and injuries. Sadly,
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: I think there'll be more to come. Freed. What has
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: surprised me and I should get over being surprised by this,
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: but is the ruthless lethality, particularly of the Israelis, who
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: are able in their side of the strike, to take
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: out the equivalent of President Trump, General Dan Kane, Secretary
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: Pete Hagsath. I mean this really is a decapitation. So
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: that has been a surprise to get in that easily
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: and take out that layer of leadership. Now, however, the
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: hard part starts.
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: You know, you point out that the lethality and precision
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: is unusual. I was talking to the historian Timothy Neftally
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: who pointed out the US in the past had tried
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: assassinations famously of people like Fidel Castro and had always
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: botched them. This is a new feature on the international stage,
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: and I suspect that while the United States and Israel
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: in the forefront, you know, this might become something I
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: don't want to say common practice, but the other countries
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: will have recision targeting and drones. And I wonder whether
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: this opens up a kind of can of worms in
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: which countries are going to be targeting senior leadership.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: Is that something you worry about?
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: We should worry about it. However, it's always been a
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: feature of war. What has prevented more of that kind
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: of decapitation taking out the leader is simply the lack
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: of intelligence, command and control. But I can remind you
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: in World War Two, the United States shot down the
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: aircraft that was carrying the commander in chief of the
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: Japanese Armed Forces, for example, we have had this capability
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: in the past. One point I'll make here for Reid
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: and we talked about what are the effects of airpower
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: and use of precision. I commanded the NATO war in
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: Libya in two thousand and eleven. We had plenty of
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: opportunities to take out Kadafi. We chose not to in
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: those circumstances. However, this is a new feature of war.
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: Precision AI unmanned or here to stay. They'll be used
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: against every level of military activity.
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: What do you suspect jim is going to be the
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: next wave of targets because they seem to have gone in,
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: you know, in a fairly dramatic way, senior leadership, but
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: also military sites stick missile sites.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: So what do you think the next waves will be about?
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: I think, and you know the Admiral is going to
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: say this, I think will go against the maritime capability
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: of Iran, which is not insignificant. And by knocking that
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: out preemptively while it hopefully sits in port, we can
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: take out their mind layers, we can take out their
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: small combatants, we can take out their diesel submarines. This
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: reduces risk to our own naval forces offshore. But more importantly,
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: perhaps it allows us to prevent the full closure of
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: the Strait of Hormus. Effectively, that's happened because commercial shipping
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: is making a decision not to go through it. Going
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: after naval targets would be smart, and then a second
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: level of targeting I think could be applied against mid
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: tier revolutionary guard not so much that can ventional military,
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: because there is your hope of finding partners for protesters
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: rebels on the ground.
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: James Stavritte is always a pleasure to talk to you,
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: and we will be following this.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: We'll probably be back to you for more in the
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: weeks to come.