Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Betting the MLB Season

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Betting the MLB Season · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
0:13
Speaker 1: podcast Network. I am Chad Moelman. I am your host,
0:17
Speaker 1: and I am joined as I am every week by
0:19
Speaker 1: my companion, might B F F the greatest gambler to
0:25
Speaker 1: hit the Jersey Shore since Nuckie Thompson, Mr Simon Hunter.
0:32
Speaker 1: Hell yeah, the gold is definitely be the Billy Walters
0:37
Speaker 1: of New Jersey. So I got a long way to go.
0:39
Speaker 1: I gotta win it for thirty straight years. But that's
0:41
Speaker 1: definitely the goal. You gotta win for thirty straight years.
0:44
Speaker 1: You've got to come up with an entirely new dynamic.
0:47
Speaker 1: You need to have a network of people working for
0:50
Speaker 1: you that can move tens of millions of dollars. You
0:53
Speaker 1: need a private jet, you need a feature in sixty minutes.
0:57
Speaker 1: That's what you need. Yeah, this is tend sent high
1:00
Speaker 1: us there and I started. I have one runner, great
1:03
Speaker 1: friend of mine, a trustworthy guy. All I need is
1:05
Speaker 1: about twenty more and I can be even close to
1:07
Speaker 1: what he was doing on a daily basis. We want
1:09
Speaker 1: to help you get there. We want to expand folio,
1:12
Speaker 1: we want to get you there. First, we are going
1:14
Speaker 1: to get to some very important MLB breakdowns with our
1:18
Speaker 1: MLB experts, Colin Wilson and shawn's Rillo, because guess what
1:23
Speaker 1: MLB Opening Day starts today. You may have forgotten because
1:26
Speaker 1: there's so much NBA trade deadline news, there's so much
1:29
Speaker 1: NFL free agency news, college basketball March Madness has been happening.
1:34
Speaker 1: MLB decided, Hey, in the middle of all that, instead
1:37
Speaker 1: of waiting a week and waiting for March Madness to finish,
1:40
Speaker 1: let's start in the middle of the week between the
1:45
Speaker 1: the elite and the Final Four. That's what we're gonna do.
1:48
Speaker 1: M they'll be always thinking about how to get their
1:50
Speaker 1: sports some more attention. We're gonna do it for him.
1:54
Speaker 1: We're gonna give him some attention. We're gonna get smart
1:56
Speaker 1: about betting baseball every day. We're gonna get smart about
1:58
Speaker 1: betting win totals future, maybe some cy young last year,
2:02
Speaker 1: Sean Zarrillo are baseball were nailed, nailed. Who's going to
2:08
Speaker 1: win the side? Young, big big bet before we get there,
2:12
Speaker 1: Simon with Colin and Zaillo. Uh. There was some NFL
2:16
Speaker 1: news this past week. It broke that the league is
2:18
Speaker 1: going to be adding sevente game to the schedule. That
2:21
Speaker 1: is good news for everyone. In the money making biz,
2:25
Speaker 1: except for maybe the players who are miserable that they
2:29
Speaker 1: have to add this seventeenth game. Give me your take
2:32
Speaker 1: as a fan and as a gambler. As a fan,
2:37
Speaker 1: I try always look at the perspective of the players,
2:40
Speaker 1: and sure, I feel for them they have an extra game,
2:43
Speaker 1: but we all talked about the time. They're making hundreds
2:46
Speaker 1: of thousands and millions of dollars, they're gonna be all right.
2:48
Speaker 1: Um yeah, as a pro, this is amazing. It's like
2:51
Speaker 1: having an extra week at It's my pay week. The
2:54
Speaker 1: best thing ever. I enjoyed preseason, but you can't get
2:56
Speaker 1: a lot down in preseason. They kind of limit how
2:58
Speaker 1: much the books take on prissy games. So the way
3:01
Speaker 1: shaping up, we're gonna get the season start a week early,
3:04
Speaker 1: only have three preseason games, and it's amazing. It's I
3:08
Speaker 1: just think we're in the golden age of football right now.
3:10
Speaker 1: And it just keeps it growing, it keeps it just
3:13
Speaker 1: keeps giving back the product what people want, and people
3:16
Speaker 1: just they just want points. And what we've seen over
3:19
Speaker 1: the last couple years is the offensive I've really exploded.
3:21
Speaker 1: So the fact that they're doing this, it's gonna expand fantasy.
3:25
Speaker 1: It's gonna expand sports betting. It's it's the best. I'm
3:27
Speaker 1: really excited about their doing this. I love how you
3:30
Speaker 1: say it's like getting an extra paycheck. It really is.
3:34
Speaker 1: It's like, my favorite weeks are the last couple of
3:37
Speaker 1: weeks because I have so much information on all these teams.
3:40
Speaker 1: I mean, we we had it last week, it went five.
3:42
Speaker 1: In our final week it goes week sixteen. So it's
3:45
Speaker 1: definitely one of those where towards the end of the year,
3:47
Speaker 1: I just have so much information that I just love it.
3:49
Speaker 1: It's like you can see Q just evincing lines are
3:52
Speaker 1: getting three points of value, which in the middle or
3:54
Speaker 1: early part of the season you're not really seeing that
3:55
Speaker 1: kind of stuff. So for me, the extradited week it's
3:59
Speaker 1: really really huge to my end of the year return.
4:02
Speaker 1: So we were on the phone, you know, we were
4:04
Speaker 1: talking before the podcast. You said that you went out
4:09
Speaker 1: and started betting team totals as soon as you saw
4:13
Speaker 1: the news. Did books not adjust their total wins. I
4:18
Speaker 1: haven't seen a ton of team totals, so I'm surprised
4:21
Speaker 1: you're able to get anything done on a team total
4:23
Speaker 1: right now. Um, but tell me what's happening. That's why
4:27
Speaker 1: you're not approach yet. That's that's why you're not a pro.
4:30
Speaker 1: It came out last night. Draft Kings put out team totals,
4:33
Speaker 1: so obviously I didn' feel like driving resorts at ten
4:35
Speaker 1: o'clock last night, so I just went to bed. I
4:37
Speaker 1: woke up like six five thirty this morning. Draft Kings
4:41
Speaker 1: put out team totals last night. It's Tuesday afternoon. Thanks
4:44
Speaker 1: for doing that. Give me some some team totals that
4:46
Speaker 1: you looked at. I like to take unders because the
4:48
Speaker 1: public manit is gonna come in and take overs, so
4:51
Speaker 1: I like to get down early on unders. Again, we're
4:53
Speaker 1: gonna talk about this for the next few months. We'll
4:56
Speaker 1: let the dust settle. But there's three or four that
4:58
Speaker 1: I have to hit right away. So the lines, I
5:01
Speaker 1: think they're a team that's gonna tank this year. I
5:02
Speaker 1: hit there under five. Uh, the Eagles six and a
5:05
Speaker 1: half A plus money for the under right now, because
5:09
Speaker 1: Larrey I live in, it's a lot of Philadelphi Eagles fans,
5:11
Speaker 1: They're gonna be heavily slipped slated towards the over. So
5:15
Speaker 1: right now six and a half people have been taking
5:17
Speaker 1: the over. So it's plus one on the under of
5:19
Speaker 1: the Eagles. This is not a team that I can
5:21
Speaker 1: see getting seven wins. They just have too many holes.
5:24
Speaker 1: They have a second round quarterback that we're very unsure about,
5:26
Speaker 1: and they don't really have the offensive weapons for me
5:28
Speaker 1: to believe in. So that's another team like to fade
5:31
Speaker 1: and we'll get to your team, of course, the Bears.
5:34
Speaker 1: So the Bears are sitting at seven plus money towards
5:37
Speaker 1: the under. When I look at that division, it's so
5:39
Speaker 1: tempting to take the over. It feels like they're baiting
5:42
Speaker 1: me to take the over because we know the Green
5:44
Speaker 1: Bay runs that division. They're they're the most complete team.
5:47
Speaker 1: Minnesota has tons of holes. It's hard to believe in Kirk.
5:50
Speaker 1: It's it's one of those I don't believe the lines either.
5:53
Speaker 1: So if I don't believe in the Bears, the lines,
5:55
Speaker 1: or the Vikings, someone's gotta get the second amount of wins.
5:58
Speaker 1: I'm having a battle right now with myself between them
6:00
Speaker 1: and the Vikings. But I just can't back Andy Dalton.
6:03
Speaker 1: I just do not have faith in Andy Dalton. So
6:05
Speaker 1: for me plus money taking the under at seven, I
6:07
Speaker 1: like that number a lot. I have at six point eight,
6:09
Speaker 1: So I'm getting a good good number there. At seven,
6:12
Speaker 1: it's it's a fair number to push. So I like
6:14
Speaker 1: the under even at seventeen games. That's like you like,
6:20
Speaker 1: you look at the Bears and you're like, it's so
6:22
Speaker 1: weird to say this team is going six and eleven do.
6:26
Speaker 1: I just look at that team and I think that
6:29
Speaker 1: it starts at the top in the ownership. And I
6:31
Speaker 1: know Bear fans complaining about a constantly the ownership there,
6:33
Speaker 1: but the fact that he gave this coach and this
6:36
Speaker 1: general manager another year and they brought in Andy Dalton
6:39
Speaker 1: to save their problems. I just have this team quentin
6:42
Speaker 1: by week five. So I'm sorry to say it to
6:44
Speaker 1: the Bears fans. I hope they can get off to
6:46
Speaker 1: a hard, hot start like they did last year and
6:48
Speaker 1: then they fell apart. I just don't see it. I
6:50
Speaker 1: see a team that it's just that's just not right.
6:53
Speaker 1: So I'm staying away from the Bears over I like
6:55
Speaker 1: their under Listen, I'm I'm not going to disagree with you.
6:59
Speaker 1: There's nothing about Andy Dalton that is inspiring confidence in
7:03
Speaker 1: Bears fans. All all, me and my buddies and me
7:08
Speaker 1: and my younger son have been doing for the past
7:11
Speaker 1: ten days or whatever it's been since they signed. Andy
7:13
Speaker 1: Dalton is looking at what like NFL Memes does, which
7:18
Speaker 1: is consistently trolling Andy Dalton and posting the most uninspiring
7:25
Speaker 1: moments and videos where Andy Dalton is trying to get
7:28
Speaker 1: the team going and he's like, all right, guys, we're
7:31
Speaker 1: gonna go out there, we're gonna do better, we're gonna win,
7:34
Speaker 1: we're gonna be our best. Let's go, and it's like
7:36
Speaker 1: there's nothing about him that is making me excited. Then
7:39
Speaker 1: you walk in like they're trying to do a hype video.
7:41
Speaker 1: I feel like I feel like the Bears social media
7:45
Speaker 1: team is so under duress and Ryan Pace is just
7:49
Speaker 1: standing over their shoulders saying, post this nice thing about
7:52
Speaker 1: Andy Dalton, post this thing to make Andy Dalton look great,
7:55
Speaker 1: and like they're trying so hard, they're so game to
7:58
Speaker 1: make Andy Dalton look great and they can't do it.
8:01
Speaker 1: Like I feel terrible for everybody. I swear they're trolling you,
8:04
Speaker 1: Like the QB one post they posted him one that
8:08
Speaker 1: was such a troll job by that that was great,
8:10
Speaker 1: But the fact that they're doing it without any irony,
8:13
Speaker 1: like without any self awareness. They It's like, do they
8:16
Speaker 1: not know there's not a single person in Chicago who
8:19
Speaker 1: was a fan of the Bears who was saying, Yes,
8:22
Speaker 1: Andy Dalton's QB one is what's gonna get us to
8:25
Speaker 1: over seven wins in a in a seventeen game season.
8:31
Speaker 1: I got some good I got some good news. We're
8:33
Speaker 1: gonna talk to baseball. Now, we're not gonna talk baseball.
8:36
Speaker 1: Let's transition. That's a very good transition. Uh. To let
8:39
Speaker 1: everybody know. Simon Hunter draft Kings posted some odds last
8:43
Speaker 1: night in the state of New Jersey, some totals on
8:46
Speaker 1: NFL NFL teams in a seventeen game season. Simon bet
8:51
Speaker 1: the Lions under five. He bet the Eagles, the Eagles
8:54
Speaker 1: under six and a half, and he bet the Bears
8:58
Speaker 1: under seven. Does not bode well for the rest of us.
9:01
Speaker 1: But let's do some baseball, because we got opening Day
9:06
Speaker 1: on Thursday for the first time, and god knows how
9:08
Speaker 1: long every single team is. Uh lasen him up. On Thursday,
9:14
Speaker 1: there's gonna be a whole slate against which, by the way,
9:16
Speaker 1: is genius and it's what the it's what major League
9:19
Speaker 1: Baseball should have done Last year when the schedule when
9:24
Speaker 1: they restarted, they should have been playing games all day, NonStop,
9:27
Speaker 1: every day like the NBA was, instead of trying to
9:30
Speaker 1: get every game starting at seven thirty, which was just
9:32
Speaker 1: terrible for fans and a horrible way to bring sports
9:35
Speaker 1: back when they could have owned and dominated. But I digress.
9:38
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna get angry about it. I'm not gonna
9:39
Speaker 1: get upset about it, because honestly, our baseball cover just
9:43
Speaker 1: so freaking good that if we can get fifteen games
9:47
Speaker 1: in one day, and then we can get a hundred
9:49
Speaker 1: and sixty two games for every team throughout the year,
9:51
Speaker 1: we are gonna be rolling. If you don't read Shawnzarillo,
9:56
Speaker 1: guess what you're gonna get a chance to do because
9:58
Speaker 1: he will write every freaking day. It seems he will
10:02
Speaker 1: watch every freaking game. He will bet on every game.
10:05
Speaker 1: You can follow him the Action Network up and see
10:07
Speaker 1: exactly what he's doing. All of the projections that we
10:11
Speaker 1: have in our Projections are Genius are powered by the
10:15
Speaker 1: brain of Sean Zarrillo. Hello, Sean, Hey, Chatty Simon, how
10:21
Speaker 1: are you guys doing? It's going on? Brother? Do you
10:25
Speaker 1: know Sean Zarrillo's first ever podcast experience was on the Favorites.
10:32
Speaker 1: He had been working with us maybe for a week.
10:35
Speaker 1: I thought he had done like a lot of stuff,
10:38
Speaker 1: because he's written a lot, he's worked in media like
10:41
Speaker 1: his He sent me the best cold email of anybody
10:44
Speaker 1: that has ever sent me an email, And I just figured,
10:47
Speaker 1: like the guy had media training and the first time
10:51
Speaker 1: he ever did anything was coming on the Favorites podcast.
10:55
Speaker 1: It's like you, Simon, Yeah, with black Jack Flutcher, no
10:58
Speaker 1: less to uh, you know, trying to throw me off
11:00
Speaker 1: balance from across the desk. That was. That was an
11:02
Speaker 1: interesting dynamic. But we got through it. We did get
11:04
Speaker 1: through it. Also joining us. Oh boy, oh Colin Wilson.
11:09
Speaker 1: Colin Wilson, who loves baseball so much, loves betting baseball
11:14
Speaker 1: so much. He loves his Kansas City Royals. Uh. He
11:17
Speaker 1: did a nice little trip with his kids the first
11:21
Speaker 1: the weekend that the brackets were announced, he went to
11:24
Speaker 1: spring training. He watched some Royals baseball. Loves to talk baseball.
11:29
Speaker 1: We got a poor one out for the Arkansas Razorbacks though,
11:32
Speaker 1: because Simon, I mean Colin. The only thing Colin loves
11:36
Speaker 1: more than baseball in college football might be the Arkansas Razorbacks.
11:40
Speaker 1: How you feeling, buddy, whoo pig SUI You know I
11:45
Speaker 1: I said yesterday on our March Madness Live show, I
11:48
Speaker 1: was content with how far we got. I am blessed
11:51
Speaker 1: to support a college fund egg college that also has
11:56
Speaker 1: the number one baseball team in America. So I just
11:58
Speaker 1: get to roll right into an other great team before
12:01
Speaker 1: I roll right into college football season, where we will
12:03
Speaker 1: return to bull season. So for a collegiate standpoint, I
12:08
Speaker 1: couldn't be happier. I'm glad for our run. I'm ready
12:11
Speaker 1: to turn the page into baseball. Baseball is my one
12:16
Speaker 1: true first love in life, because when I was three
12:19
Speaker 1: or four years old, the weekend vacations were me uh
12:24
Speaker 1: and my diapers running up and down the stairs at
12:26
Speaker 1: Kaufman Stadium with George Brett, Willie Wilson. Uh, you know
12:30
Speaker 1: Dick howserco Whitey herzog Is coaching Frank White. I mean
12:34
Speaker 1: that my life was the Kansas City Royals until college
12:37
Speaker 1: football really took it over in my teens. Listen, you're
12:40
Speaker 1: speaking my tomb because I'm older than you are, and
12:43
Speaker 1: so you two old. You're just an old man. I
12:47
Speaker 1: am thinking about those Royal blue you know, sands about
12:54
Speaker 1: sand knit UNI's uh and George Brett being to me
12:58
Speaker 1: like such a like so much of what you think
13:03
Speaker 1: about when you think about sort of baseball in those
13:05
Speaker 1: great stories that he tells, and him running to the
13:07
Speaker 1: plate after the Pine Tower game against the Yankees and
13:10
Speaker 1: those battles against the Yankees, and ah like you know,
13:14
Speaker 1: twib notes. He's a twib notes guy a Twitter. The
13:16
Speaker 1: Royals are a twib notes legend team, like that legendary
13:22
Speaker 1: late seventies early eighties run for them. I'm thinking, I'm
13:26
Speaker 1: thinking twin notes twib was the greatest show ever for
13:29
Speaker 1: those of you that are out there in Chattony's age range.
13:31
Speaker 1: Now I have to set the bar for the favorite here.
13:33
Speaker 1: Everybody needs to realize Zilla and I have a very good, working,
13:37
Speaker 1: professional relationship, but he's a die hard Mets fan who
13:41
Speaker 1: lost the series to the Kansas City Royals. All right,
13:45
Speaker 1: so we get along with everything, but don't bring up
13:47
Speaker 1: the fifteen series. Want to? You know, if we do
13:58
Speaker 1: each other, then I don't know if our relationship would
14:00
Speaker 1: be as good as end now. So I'm glad that
14:02
Speaker 1: we've met each other, you know, a little bit later
14:04
Speaker 1: in life, all right. So let's get to this season, though,
14:06
Speaker 1: because it is gonna be a long season, it's gonna
14:08
Speaker 1: be a great season. Opening Day is always one of
14:10
Speaker 1: the best days in the sports calendar. It is Thursday,
14:12
Speaker 1: April one, Every team is playing, It's a full day
14:15
Speaker 1: of baseball. Zarillo. First question go into you, what do
14:21
Speaker 1: I need to think about if I want a bet baseball?
14:23
Speaker 1: How do I do it? Like, there are a lot
14:25
Speaker 1: of people who might only bet football, and betting baseball
14:28
Speaker 1: is an incredibly challenging thing to do on a regular
14:32
Speaker 1: basis because it requires a lot of concentration. Yeah, so
14:35
Speaker 1: I'd say the first thing is it's not a spread game.
14:39
Speaker 1: I would generally stick to money lines. That's where I
14:41
Speaker 1: spocus most of my time and energy. I think spreads
14:44
Speaker 1: are generally negative. Ev most games pretty much all games
14:47
Speaker 1: listed at plus or minus one and a half runs.
14:50
Speaker 1: You know, the the amount of games that end up
14:53
Speaker 1: aliening on on one round. I think it's about four percent.
14:56
Speaker 1: It's just not worth it relative to the odds that
14:58
Speaker 1: they put out. So if you're interested it and playing spreads,
15:01
Speaker 1: I would generally look at reverse run lines with underdogs.
15:04
Speaker 1: Otherwise pass and look at money lines. And really it's
15:07
Speaker 1: I think it's a much easier conversion to find teams
15:10
Speaker 1: with value than it is relative to other sports where
15:12
Speaker 1: you have to make your own power rankings figure out
15:14
Speaker 1: what the point spread should be. You could just go
15:17
Speaker 1: and find couple of the available projections. You could use
15:19
Speaker 1: our projections, whatever floats your boat, whatever you think is
15:21
Speaker 1: most accurate, and see the team is likely to win
15:24
Speaker 1: a game today and they're listed odds, imply that they're
15:27
Speaker 1: thirty likely to win, and place a bet on their
15:30
Speaker 1: side at you know, a five percent confidence level that
15:33
Speaker 1: they're going to exceed their expectations. So there's a lot
15:36
Speaker 1: of value on underdogs throughout the season. But if you
15:40
Speaker 1: kind of giving yourself up into the first five innings
15:42
Speaker 1: markets and ignore bullpens or potentially depending on openers, you know,
15:46
Speaker 1: look at who's expected to pitch those first five innings
15:49
Speaker 1: and then full game lines, I think you can just
15:51
Speaker 1: spend the majority of your time looking at those two
15:53
Speaker 1: markets and end up betting close to a thousand games
15:57
Speaker 1: throughout the season. There's just so much action. There's about
16:00
Speaker 1: thirteen point five games per day over the course of
16:02
Speaker 1: six months, and there's plenty of opportunities so no need
16:05
Speaker 1: to force anything, no need to bet anything where you
16:08
Speaker 1: are showing value unless you think there's something outside of
16:11
Speaker 1: the numbers that like a picture injury or something like that,
16:14
Speaker 1: that may indicate that the probability should be different than
16:17
Speaker 1: what it's projected. But there's just so much opportunity to
16:20
Speaker 1: make money throughout the season if your patient and you're
16:22
Speaker 1: willing to deal deal with extreme swings of variants, because
16:25
Speaker 1: there's definitely lots of up and down. All right, I
16:28
Speaker 1: want I know Simon wants to jump in with a question,
16:30
Speaker 1: but I gotta follow up on one thing, and and
16:33
Speaker 1: I want to get Simon's perspective on this, and I
16:36
Speaker 1: want to get Colin's perspective on this is NFL and
16:39
Speaker 1: college football betters. You just said something very interesting, Relo,
16:43
Speaker 1: which was if there is a I think you said
16:47
Speaker 1: a five confidence level, it's worth making a bet and
16:53
Speaker 1: tending to bet on the underdogs. That doesn't feel like
16:58
Speaker 1: something that gives me a lot of confidence, and yet
17:03
Speaker 1: over the course of the season that can potentially add up.
17:06
Speaker 1: So one, I want you to explain yourself a little bit,
17:09
Speaker 1: and two I want to get Simon's perspective on how
17:12
Speaker 1: confident he is when he bets NFL games, and Colin's
17:16
Speaker 1: perspective when he bets college football games. Yeah, I mean
17:19
Speaker 1: it works the other right too. So generally, actually I
17:21
Speaker 1: set my edge a little bit lower. I I try
17:23
Speaker 1: to bet three percentages or even three and a half percent,
17:26
Speaker 1: which basically accounts for an error of margin relative to
17:29
Speaker 1: home field advantage. But you know, if you if you
17:31
Speaker 1: have a projected favorite that you think is likely to
17:34
Speaker 1: win sixty five percent of the the time, the Dodgers should
17:36
Speaker 1: win about sixty of their games this year, and you're
17:39
Speaker 1: getting alignment, is implying that they're likely to win this
17:42
Speaker 1: game sixty percent of the time or even sixty two
17:44
Speaker 1: percent of the time. I think that's an actual waiter.
17:47
Speaker 1: So really, you're just looking for gaps every single day
17:50
Speaker 1: based upon the projections that you're using and the list
17:52
Speaker 1: of odds in the market, and trying to find those edges.
17:55
Speaker 1: It's it's not that I have a five percent confidence
17:57
Speaker 1: in that game, you know when, or that I have,
18:00
Speaker 1: you know, greater than any particular game. Typically I feel
18:05
Speaker 1: about the same on every game except for like one
18:07
Speaker 1: a week. That really stands out to me. But you're
18:10
Speaker 1: just kind of grinding along and picking off perceived edges
18:13
Speaker 1: that are different than what the marketplace is saying the
18:16
Speaker 1: game should be. Simon, when you think about NFL, what
18:19
Speaker 1: are you thinking about as far as edges, I mean
18:23
Speaker 1: never ending. It's every week you can find an edge.
18:27
Speaker 1: Like he's talking about Baseball, same thing. It's like the
18:30
Speaker 1: pros I talked with base what's the best because like
18:32
Speaker 1: you said, there's so many games. You can take days off,
18:35
Speaker 1: you can pick and choose your spots. You can ride
18:37
Speaker 1: hot teams, you can stay away from teams. Like football
18:40
Speaker 1: is different where it's kind of all combusting in just
18:42
Speaker 1: one day, where it's like everything is pretty much happened
18:45
Speaker 1: on Sunday and that's where I'm gonna make my money.
18:46
Speaker 1: And when I bet football, it's it's completely different. Like
18:50
Speaker 1: my every bet I make, I think I'm gonna win,
18:53
Speaker 1: Like I put the time and I put the work in,
18:54
Speaker 1: where when I've bet other sports, I have little to
18:57
Speaker 1: no faith I'm gonna win. It's like it's like everyone said,
18:59
Speaker 1: it's flipping a coin. It's like I have a chance.
19:01
Speaker 1: And that's why I love what you guys at the
19:03
Speaker 1: Action Network. You guys have literally have an app that
19:05
Speaker 1: you can go in. It's telling the percentages and where
19:08
Speaker 1: the edges are on certain games. So that's one of
19:10
Speaker 1: those where if I if I'm getting information for somebody,
19:13
Speaker 1: I try to match it up with someone else. And
19:14
Speaker 1: that's why I like the app. If I if I
19:16
Speaker 1: like a team, like he's just talking about Kansas City
19:18
Speaker 1: Royals and there are a big favorite to get the
19:21
Speaker 1: team that's a big plus dog. Maybe it's one of
19:23
Speaker 1: those where if you guys are saying, no, the value
19:25
Speaker 1: here is on the dog, I'll just stay away from it.
19:27
Speaker 1: So it's definitely one of these sports were baseball. It's
19:30
Speaker 1: it's actually pretty easy to make money if you're really
19:32
Speaker 1: discipline with their money. You just have to pick and
19:33
Speaker 1: choose your spots. Colin, Yeah, I mean for as a
19:38
Speaker 1: college football better to break it down, you know, mathematically,
19:41
Speaker 1: this is what I consider in college football to be
19:43
Speaker 1: a two and a half to three and a half
19:45
Speaker 1: point edge, right, that's four uh. To go from a
19:48
Speaker 1: point spread of five to six is or six and
19:51
Speaker 1: a half is about a four percent. So when Zarello
19:53
Speaker 1: says I'm looking for four percent edge and football terms
19:56
Speaker 1: for those of us, the bet On Football Autoon that's
19:58
Speaker 1: kind of what we're looking at. Right. There's no real
20:00
Speaker 1: true key number that we're looking to cross like we do.
20:04
Speaker 1: In football, it's extremely important to get three and seven. Uh,
20:07
Speaker 1: you know, eight's becoming important in college football. But with baseball, Uh,
20:11
Speaker 1: you know, if you get those edges, here's where you've
20:14
Speaker 1: got to be not just good with numbers in baseball,
20:17
Speaker 1: but you've got to be kind of an artist because
20:19
Speaker 1: you have to know when the line opens overnight, where
20:23
Speaker 1: it's gonna head in the market when you wake up
20:25
Speaker 1: the next morning, and where it's gonna close before first pitch.
20:28
Speaker 1: And that's everything from market perceptive perception, public perception about
20:32
Speaker 1: a picture. Maybe had a bad last outing against a
20:34
Speaker 1: team that just happens to hit sliders better. Uh, maybe
20:37
Speaker 1: he's gonna get an umpire that's gonna help him out
20:39
Speaker 1: with some edges painting the corners. Uh. You know, baseball
20:42
Speaker 1: is a thing where you have to also predict the market.
20:44
Speaker 1: But you've got to be careful with your edges because
20:46
Speaker 1: the Dodgers are gonna be minus three plus a ton
20:49
Speaker 1: of times this year, and you just can't take the
20:51
Speaker 1: dogs every time against them, no matter what the edges
20:54
Speaker 1: and it's gonna happen a lot against the Rockies. I mean,
20:56
Speaker 1: I think the average Dodgers lie is gonna be minus
20:58
Speaker 1: three eight against the Rockies this year. It's even though
21:00
Speaker 1: there's edge every time and the public is gonna pile
21:02
Speaker 1: on the Dodgers, You're gonna have to hit a Rocky's
21:05
Speaker 1: whin like once out of every four, you know, to
21:07
Speaker 1: to pay that off. So you have to be kind
21:09
Speaker 1: of an artist with the market and know where it's
21:11
Speaker 1: going to play to do baseball lines. He just called
21:13
Speaker 1: you an artist. Uh, you know, it's it's definitely an
21:17
Speaker 1: art for him in terms of being creative with how
21:20
Speaker 1: you're getting your number and and just being different than
21:24
Speaker 1: everybody else and finding the thing that makes your particular
21:26
Speaker 1: model unique. So I think I separate myself from the
21:29
Speaker 1: rest of the market and how I incorporate defense, and
21:32
Speaker 1: I think that's what gives me a slight edge compared
21:34
Speaker 1: to what other people are doing. Um. The challenge with
21:40
Speaker 1: betting baseball that I see, it's a little bit like
21:44
Speaker 1: betting hockey. We joke about this all the time at
21:46
Speaker 1: the Action Network. It's a miserable experience because you end
21:51
Speaker 1: up betting these underdogs knowing that a minus three eighty
21:56
Speaker 1: favorite is not going to be a making proposition over
22:01
Speaker 1: a long period of time. So Sean and Colin, over
22:06
Speaker 1: the course of the season, do you feel like it's
22:10
Speaker 1: hard to be doing what you do where you're putting
22:14
Speaker 1: picks in the app every day baseball a lot a
22:17
Speaker 1: lot of times sort of the record might not reflect
22:21
Speaker 1: how often you're winning because you bet so much on underdogs,
22:27
Speaker 1: you know. I think it really just comes down to patients,
22:29
Speaker 1: Like there's there's periods of time and just based on
22:32
Speaker 1: mathematical probability. If you're betting a thousand games over the
22:35
Speaker 1: course of the season, you're due for one twenty unit
22:38
Speaker 1: upswing and one unit downswing or the course of that period.
22:41
Speaker 1: So you just need to be able to grind it out.
22:43
Speaker 1: And if you're not feeling it, like if you if
22:47
Speaker 1: you're getting to a point where you feel like you're
22:50
Speaker 1: being reactive instead of going off of what your number is,
22:54
Speaker 1: take a day off and get away from it. Reset
22:57
Speaker 1: your mind, because there's no point in following the same
23:01
Speaker 1: process if you're going to deviate for a minute at
23:03
Speaker 1: some point, you have to be tryed to do true
23:04
Speaker 1: to your process, even if it's not going well for
23:06
Speaker 1: a period of time. You can't let the results affect
23:09
Speaker 1: you because there is gonna be massive swings of variants.
23:11
Speaker 1: It's just that type of sport where you can't really
23:14
Speaker 1: quantify everything that's going to happen over the course of
23:16
Speaker 1: a night in game, where you generally know the players
23:18
Speaker 1: who are going to be on a football field, you're
23:20
Speaker 1: a pretty good idea of the players who are going
23:22
Speaker 1: to come into a baseball game, but you don't have
23:24
Speaker 1: a d percent certainty like you went with the football team.
23:27
Speaker 1: Trust the process, Yeah, that I mean that that's what
23:31
Speaker 1: works for me. I mean I've been doing baseball in
23:32
Speaker 1: the Action app since the Action app was born, uh
23:35
Speaker 1: and doing it successfully, but I've been doing it on totals,
23:38
Speaker 1: and really it's just something that you have to trust
23:41
Speaker 1: your process. Sunday is getaway day. Nobody wants to be
23:44
Speaker 1: in the park longer than two and a half hours, right,
23:46
Speaker 1: Nobody wants this extended ball game on Sunday afternoon. They're
23:48
Speaker 1: trying to fly out Monday morning and team might have
23:51
Speaker 1: flown all night, maybe they played Sunday night baseball. You
23:53
Speaker 1: can't expect them to hit very much when they come out. Uh,
23:56
Speaker 1: there are certain umpires that have ridiculous strike zones. And
24:00
Speaker 1: get me started on robot umps that are needed. But
24:02
Speaker 1: you know some umpires have such ridiculous strike zones. The
24:05
Speaker 1: wind that Wriggley may be going a certain way. Uh there.
24:08
Speaker 1: I mean there's just so many things when it comes
24:10
Speaker 1: to totals where you can find an edge and beat
24:12
Speaker 1: the market and get closing line value and trust your process.
24:15
Speaker 1: You lose it so much so a guy gets called
24:17
Speaker 1: up from Triple A and he he gives up six
24:18
Speaker 1: runds in the eighth. I mean, your process was correct
24:21
Speaker 1: and you beat the market, just keep playing it. So
24:25
Speaker 1: you just you do have been a little bit there
24:27
Speaker 1: about totals. I was warning coming into the season, like baseball,
24:29
Speaker 1: any kappers, I know there's a lot of stuff being
24:31
Speaker 1: talked about with the baseballs. How does the whole thing
24:34
Speaker 1: going on the baseball and what's going on in the baseballs,
24:36
Speaker 1: and how does that infect totals going into the season
24:38
Speaker 1: coming up? I'll go first because I know Sean has
24:42
Speaker 1: a lot to say. Shot will get a lot of
24:43
Speaker 1: his test here. But I don't understand MLB coming out
24:46
Speaker 1: and saying we are going to subtly change the ball.
24:49
Speaker 1: I mean, this is something where there's people that put
24:52
Speaker 1: vassaline pine tar snot badges, still all kinds of ship
24:55
Speaker 1: on the ball, and it has a major effect at
24:57
Speaker 1: spin rate in twelve to six curves. Uh, And all
25:00
Speaker 1: of a sudden, you know, the home run rate last
25:02
Speaker 1: year draw from six point six to six point five.
25:05
Speaker 1: We got to do more by shrinking the core, like
25:08
Speaker 1: this is a Beer League softball team. I don't get
25:10
Speaker 1: what MLB is trying to do by limiting home runs.
25:13
Speaker 1: You don't see the NBA putting their goals at eleven
25:16
Speaker 1: feet because there's just too many dunks, right, the most
25:18
Speaker 1: exciting part of the game. We're just gonna have to
25:20
Speaker 1: eliminate it. I don't know what MLB's deal is. And
25:22
Speaker 1: the human or factor I'll let Sean talk about that
25:24
Speaker 1: pisses me off as well, because last year they put
25:27
Speaker 1: five in, didn't tell you what parks they were in,
25:29
Speaker 1: and this year they're putting more in and they're still
25:31
Speaker 1: not telling us where the human door is gonna be. Yeah,
25:33
Speaker 1: i'd say a third of the parks now have human
25:35
Speaker 1: doors and we still don't know where half of them are.
25:37
Speaker 1: So I wish it was just the baseball is that
25:40
Speaker 1: they were messing with. Um. They're also cracking down on
25:43
Speaker 1: the substances that Colin mentioned that pictures are gonna be using,
25:46
Speaker 1: They're gonna be monitoring spin rates closer this year, potentially
25:49
Speaker 1: suspending I'm sure it's mostly just to keep the honest honest,
25:52
Speaker 1: but they say that they're gonna suspend pictures who spin
25:55
Speaker 1: rates are very wildly varying from past performance, and it
26:01
Speaker 1: really just comes down to the fact that there's there's
26:03
Speaker 1: so many factors that they're changing. It's it's hard to
26:06
Speaker 1: really put a number or quantify what the difference is
26:08
Speaker 1: going to be. Runs and home runs are both down
26:11
Speaker 1: in spring training. Is that confirmation bias or is that reality? Well,
26:14
Speaker 1: we're gonna find out when the regular season starts. Home
26:17
Speaker 1: Field advantage without fans was took a big dip at
26:20
Speaker 1: the beginning of the regular season last year and ended
26:22
Speaker 1: up eating out. You know, you you always want to
26:24
Speaker 1: confirm the things that you suspect might be happening based
26:27
Speaker 1: upon the data that you have, but you need to
26:29
Speaker 1: give it a larger sample in order for it to
26:31
Speaker 1: play out and actually see what the truth is. So
26:34
Speaker 1: I'm a big believer in the law of unintended consequences,
26:38
Speaker 1: and I ultimately think that this is going to have
26:40
Speaker 1: a net negative effect on the changes that they want
26:42
Speaker 1: to make. They want fewer home runs, they want more
26:44
Speaker 1: balls and play well. If hitters know that the mistakes
26:48
Speaker 1: that they're hitting out to the opposite field, they aren't
26:50
Speaker 1: gonna fly as far, why wouldn't they try to pull
26:52
Speaker 1: the ball more and hit more home runs to the
26:54
Speaker 1: pulse side of the park. They're gonna lay off the
26:56
Speaker 1: pitches to the outside, maybe take more strikeouts, and maybe
26:59
Speaker 1: take more walks. I think there's a potential increase that
27:01
Speaker 1: we're going to see the Threacher up outcomes effect in
27:03
Speaker 1: baseball instead of a decrease, just because they're trying to
27:07
Speaker 1: decrease the rate of home runs, and hitters are going
27:09
Speaker 1: to adjust. Because the result of that, also the seam
27:11
Speaker 1: height on the ball is higher, you're gonna see increased
27:14
Speaker 1: pin spin rates from pictures. Pictures might become more dangerous
27:17
Speaker 1: than they already have been because they're getting a better
27:18
Speaker 1: grip on the baseball without needing any foreign substances. So
27:21
Speaker 1: there's a confluence of factors going on here. I know,
27:24
Speaker 1: bookmakers came out and said that they're not really going
27:26
Speaker 1: to adjust totals more than about a quarter of a
27:28
Speaker 1: run to start the season, and then if there is
27:30
Speaker 1: a big impact on the way the games are being played,
27:32
Speaker 1: they will adjust further from there. But if you think
27:35
Speaker 1: you have an edge on these early season totals, particularly
27:38
Speaker 1: with regards to the unders, that's where I would look
27:40
Speaker 1: early in the year you may be able to get
27:42
Speaker 1: in there before books ultimately adjust the entire run environment down.
27:46
Speaker 1: I took about a quarter of a run off of
27:48
Speaker 1: my projected runs per game, but that's about as far
27:50
Speaker 1: as I'm going for now until we have more information.
27:53
Speaker 1: This is this is the heart of the problem, Like
27:58
Speaker 1: why is baseball making the ball such an issue that
28:05
Speaker 1: it's driving fans insane and it's driving the people who
28:09
Speaker 1: are closest to the game even nuttier and making them angrier.
28:15
Speaker 1: Take take the noise out of the conversation when it
28:19
Speaker 1: comes to giving fans the product. I think that's the
28:23
Speaker 1: biggest challenge that baseball has, Like, I don't want bookmakers
28:28
Speaker 1: to have to be telling me how they're adjusting based
28:31
Speaker 1: on the ball. I don't want to know that there
28:33
Speaker 1: are human doors in a third of the parks, but
28:37
Speaker 1: I don't know where they are. Like that doesn't make
28:40
Speaker 1: the game more even. It changes the competitive balance in
28:45
Speaker 1: ways that are unforeseen, unpredictable, but not driven by the
28:50
Speaker 1: performance of the players, of players getting better of managerial decisions.
28:55
Speaker 1: It's based on an outside factor that drives me nuts.
28:59
Speaker 1: Am I we're reacting, No, not at all. I think
29:03
Speaker 1: people just want consistency and to be able to watch
29:07
Speaker 1: the game developed naturally over time and and let pictures
29:10
Speaker 1: adjust to the fly ball revolution that we've seen and
29:13
Speaker 1: barry hitters with more high fastballs and breaking balls low
29:16
Speaker 1: in the zone, like the game should eventually let itself
29:20
Speaker 1: figure it out. And you have hitters coming up like
29:22
Speaker 1: Nick Madrigal or are high contact hitters who are going
29:25
Speaker 1: to take advantage of the fact that defenses are playing
29:28
Speaker 1: them differently and outfields are playing a little bit deeper.
29:30
Speaker 1: So I think you just need to let sports naturally
29:34
Speaker 1: evolve over time. And unless you have go back to
29:36
Speaker 1: a situation like in the seventies where they needed to
29:39
Speaker 1: lower the mound because pitching became so incredibly dominant, move
29:43
Speaker 1: the mount back a few feet. There's there's other solutions
29:46
Speaker 1: other than changing the ball that are proven that they
29:49
Speaker 1: can help get the game back to having more action,
29:52
Speaker 1: more balls in play, the fact that pitchers are just
29:55
Speaker 1: throwing harder than ever, hitters don't have the time to
29:57
Speaker 1: react to those pitches that they used to do. So
30:00
Speaker 1: the way to come bat that is to move the bat,
30:02
Speaker 1: move the mound back, or lower the mound. And I
30:04
Speaker 1: don't really think messing with the baseball itself and just
30:07
Speaker 1: seeing what's going to happen is the best solution because
30:09
Speaker 1: we really don't know what's gonna happen. Baseball is starting,
30:14
Speaker 1: Like what are the two teams are? You're just staying
30:16
Speaker 1: there's still really good value to win the World serious,
30:18
Speaker 1: like we have some odds for divisions you like to
30:21
Speaker 1: or are there world series that you're just saying these
30:23
Speaker 1: these are numbers are off. You should bet it now
30:25
Speaker 1: before the public comes in after they have a really
30:27
Speaker 1: good start to this season. Listen. I think when you're
30:29
Speaker 1: investing in MLB futures preseason, you need to know what
30:33
Speaker 1: owners and gms are looking to spend before the deadline
30:36
Speaker 1: and which ones are looking to sell. Uh. And you know,
30:39
Speaker 1: for me, that's why I have such an issue with
30:41
Speaker 1: the Red Sox like this number down at seventy nine
30:44
Speaker 1: and a half for their win total, that to me
30:46
Speaker 1: is too low. I think eighty one was really the threshold.
30:49
Speaker 1: And now we're just kind of dog piling on an
30:51
Speaker 1: organization that can't get their stuff together. But I can't
30:53
Speaker 1: come on here and say that we should take it
30:55
Speaker 1: over because I don't really know the direction. I just
30:57
Speaker 1: know they have enough talent to get over seven nine
30:59
Speaker 1: and a half. But that doesn't mean that they're gonna
31:00
Speaker 1: be buyers at the deadline. Uh And a team that
31:03
Speaker 1: I bought immediately to win their division, I would buy
31:05
Speaker 1: them to win the World Series. A team that's gotten
31:07
Speaker 1: way too much hate is the Houston Astros, and right
31:09
Speaker 1: now at fan Duel, they're over eighty seven and a half.
31:12
Speaker 1: This is a number that I think I make it
31:15
Speaker 1: ninety from a win pythagraem standpoint, Shawn's got him at
31:18
Speaker 1: eighty nine wins. I think they can win the World Series.
31:21
Speaker 1: I think they're definitely gonna win the A L West.
31:23
Speaker 1: I mean, even Davenport, they didn't take last year's projections
31:27
Speaker 1: and they have them at ninety five wins. And you
31:29
Speaker 1: know fan Graphs has him is the second best offensive
31:31
Speaker 1: war behind the Dodgers, and the best overall war in
31:34
Speaker 1: in the A l uh. You know, the dip in
31:37
Speaker 1: their total came because of Franber Valdez taking a comeback
31:41
Speaker 1: pitch off of his ring finger. But now he's having
31:43
Speaker 1: this miraculous recovery and Dusty, you know, Baker's like, this
31:46
Speaker 1: is you know it's gonna be great. He's he's fine,
31:48
Speaker 1: No big problem here. They signed Jacoder Easy to be
31:50
Speaker 1: a fifth starter. That's a great fifth starter. He's not great,
31:52
Speaker 1: but he's a great fifth starter. Al two v looks
31:55
Speaker 1: like himself again in spring training. Organ Alvarez is still
31:59
Speaker 1: growing as a hitter, just scary for everybody. And their
32:01
Speaker 1: new center fielder that replaced George Springer, Miles Straw, maybe
32:05
Speaker 1: the fastest man in MLB. I mean, I was thinking
32:09
Speaker 1: Mondescy was going to run away with the stolen base title,
32:11
Speaker 1: but this, this Miles Straw. Yet, if you can get
32:13
Speaker 1: on base, is potentially forty steel guy. Uh. So I
32:17
Speaker 1: love the Astros. Yeah, just to echo off of what
32:20
Speaker 1: Colin is saying with the Astros, so the most conservative
32:23
Speaker 1: divisional projection for them is about fifty and you can
32:27
Speaker 1: still beat them at plus one thirty at fandel, which
32:30
Speaker 1: is a pretty substantial edge. Most aggressive projection on them
32:33
Speaker 1: is to win their division. I have the World Series
32:36
Speaker 1: odds at eight point four percent, so that's closer to
32:39
Speaker 1: ten to one than it is one thirty one out
32:42
Speaker 1: there that you can get a bit of a homer pick.
32:45
Speaker 1: But listen, I've never bet Mats futures before. Again, the
32:48
Speaker 1: most conservative divisional projection on them is highest is sixty
32:53
Speaker 1: three percent, So betting them at plus one fifty to
32:55
Speaker 1: win their division it's more than fifteen percent edge. Again,
32:58
Speaker 1: World Series projection close eleven percent. If you can pick
33:02
Speaker 1: off a twelve to one out there, and there's actually
33:03
Speaker 1: an eighteen to one on the West Coast that you
33:05
Speaker 1: can snipe. Those are both actionable numbers, but by far
33:08
Speaker 1: the most undervalued team right now is the Milwaukee Brewers.
33:12
Speaker 1: Added Colton Long Jackie Bradley Jr. Up the middle to
33:15
Speaker 1: fix their defense. We've seen repeatedly throughout the past decade
33:18
Speaker 1: twenty years the quickest way to improve your team and
33:21
Speaker 1: turn it around is to improve your team defense. And
33:24
Speaker 1: when you have really good pitching like they do, it
33:26
Speaker 1: kind of amplifies everything that you're doing so Yellow just
33:29
Speaker 1: heading in spring training looks over the struggles that he
33:31
Speaker 1: had last year kest and here is heading in spring training.
33:34
Speaker 1: I like the way that their offense is shaping up.
33:36
Speaker 1: I love their defense, I love their bullpen. Have a
33:39
Speaker 1: couple of really sneaky si On candidates at the top
33:41
Speaker 1: of their rotation, and Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burns. So,
33:45
Speaker 1: just to go back to projections, I have the when
33:49
Speaker 1: the n Central, their range is thirty seven to sixt
33:52
Speaker 1: so it's a much wider range of outcomes in a
33:54
Speaker 1: pretty wide open division. You can still bet a plus
33:57
Speaker 1: three town out there at Fandel. That's obviously still more
34:00
Speaker 1: than a ten percent edge, even if you're taking that
34:02
Speaker 1: thirty seven percent projection. Have the World Series odds projected
34:05
Speaker 1: at three point four, you can find a number as
34:09
Speaker 1: high as sevent threw a ticket up on Twitter yesterday.
34:12
Speaker 1: I mean, if you want a team that's a long
34:15
Speaker 1: shot to make their make the playoffs and then have
34:17
Speaker 1: a path to the World Series, here's the most underrated
34:20
Speaker 1: thing that people aren't talking about this year. Since we're
34:22
Speaker 1: going back to the old playoff format, there's a path
34:25
Speaker 1: for the NL Central or the n L each Champion
34:28
Speaker 1: to avoid the Dodgers completely in the playoffs. If the
34:30
Speaker 1: Dodgers are as good as you think they're gonna be
34:32
Speaker 1: and they finished with the best record of the n L,
34:34
Speaker 1: and the Padres are also as good as you think
34:36
Speaker 1: they're gonna be and they finished in the wild card spot,
34:38
Speaker 1: you're looking at the wild card winner, which presumably would
34:41
Speaker 1: be the Mets the braves of the Padres, playing the
34:44
Speaker 1: Dodgers in the first round of the playoffs in a
34:45
Speaker 1: five game series where they have a much better chance
34:47
Speaker 1: of beating them than anybody would in the seven game series.
34:50
Speaker 1: And then the winner of the NL East in the
34:52
Speaker 1: NL Central Series would presumably get to play a good
34:55
Speaker 1: wild card team in the NLCS and get home field advantage.
35:00
Speaker 1: So I think there's certainly a path to value for
35:02
Speaker 1: the NL East and NL Central Champion, provided the Dodgers
35:05
Speaker 1: are as good as they are and they get a
35:07
Speaker 1: pretty tough first round matchups. Just at that sent to
35:12
Speaker 1: one number, I think it's tremendous value, and it's it's
35:14
Speaker 1: probably double what it should be. Can I echo that
35:18
Speaker 1: real quick? Yeah? Yeah, I mean, let me echo this
35:20
Speaker 1: about the Brewers right now. On FanDuel the Cardinals are
35:22
Speaker 1: plus one hundred. They were like plus two fifty, but
35:24
Speaker 1: then they signed Nolan Ronado and they just they're they're
35:27
Speaker 1: everybody jumped on the Cardinal strands plus one d. They're
35:30
Speaker 1: one and a half game. Their game total win total
35:32
Speaker 1: for the season is like one and a half higher
35:34
Speaker 1: than the Brewers. So tell me why the Cardinals are
35:37
Speaker 1: plus one to win the Central and the Brewers are
35:39
Speaker 1: plus three tin It makes absolutely no sense. And then
35:42
Speaker 1: think about this, Oh we got Nolan Ronado, that's great.
35:45
Speaker 1: Did you happen to see that the Brewers signed Colton Wong,
35:47
Speaker 1: a guy that had a defensive war over fifteen a
35:49
Speaker 1: couple of years ago. Like the Brewers have four gold Glovers,
35:53
Speaker 1: they have two guys with a canine rate over like
35:55
Speaker 1: over ten. Uh, they have like the best bullpen. I mean,
35:59
Speaker 1: the Brewers number is just not being paid attention to whatsoever.
36:03
Speaker 1: And this is a team, you know, some life now
36:05
Speaker 1: ownership there. They've got the money to go after it
36:07
Speaker 1: if they if they really are contenders. And I'm deeply
36:10
Speaker 1: concerned about Ronado. He dealtless shoulder information all year last year,
36:14
Speaker 1: wasn't hitting. It's his non throwing shoulders, So we should
36:16
Speaker 1: be fine on defense, but he has some homer yet
36:19
Speaker 1: in spring training, and he's looked pretty bad at the plate,
36:21
Speaker 1: So I think there's significant downside to this Cardinals team.
36:26
Speaker 1: Pitching kind of scares me as well. Flaherty has had
36:28
Speaker 1: some injury concerns too. So really, this Cardinals team, even
36:32
Speaker 1: their upside projection, it's it's hard to get them above
36:34
Speaker 1: where their highest win total is listed. I feel like
36:38
Speaker 1: Zarillo in the way you laid out a potential playoff
36:40
Speaker 1: path to the World Series for the Brewers and how
36:43
Speaker 1: they can potentially avoid the Dodgers. That's just three dimensional
36:50
Speaker 1: future odds chess that you're playing right there, that only
36:55
Speaker 1: someone who was thinking about baseball as often as you
36:58
Speaker 1: do can get too. So that's that's sort of where
37:02
Speaker 1: the value lies for Division pen and World Series odds.
37:08
Speaker 1: What about team totals colin Europe first, Yeah, I mean
37:15
Speaker 1: I took a I took a Blue Jays team total
37:17
Speaker 1: over to start when spring training broke camp. There's I'll
37:21
Speaker 1: talk about this later with some player props, but there's
37:23
Speaker 1: just so much offense here. I don't know what they're
37:25
Speaker 1: gonna do on defense. Kurby Yates is now I'm not
37:27
Speaker 1: going to close for them. He's hurt. Uh, they're kind
37:29
Speaker 1: of short on the pitching staff. But this is an
37:31
Speaker 1: offense that can score ten runs a night, double digit
37:34
Speaker 1: runs a night. It's gonna be fantastic baseball, especially against
37:37
Speaker 1: teams like the Orioles. Uh, teams like the Socks, people
37:40
Speaker 1: that have pen problems. The Blue Jays are just gonna
37:42
Speaker 1: ring them up. Um. So I'll talk about a player
37:45
Speaker 1: prop about them later. But you know, one team that
37:48
Speaker 1: I was going to touch on was the Phillies, and
37:50
Speaker 1: I'm just not in love with what's what's going on
37:53
Speaker 1: with the Phillies in this season. Now, they brought in
37:55
Speaker 1: Dave Dombrowski, president of operations, And if that name doesn't
37:59
Speaker 1: ring a bell for people that pay attention to baseball,
38:01
Speaker 1: this is a guy that's responsible for the Expost team
38:04
Speaker 1: in the early nineties that just being a juggernaut and
38:06
Speaker 1: had a World Series stolen away from them in ninety four.
38:09
Speaker 1: He built then Marlin's run to the World Series. He
38:13
Speaker 1: built the Tiger's dominance in the early two thousand's. So
38:15
Speaker 1: you say, well, why isn't this a good thing for
38:17
Speaker 1: the Phillies Because he didn't build this hundred ninety two
38:20
Speaker 1: million dollar roster. Right, he didn't give a hundred and
38:23
Speaker 1: fifteen million to JT. Real Mudo, Right he a thirty
38:27
Speaker 1: year old catcher. Why because he frames you could have
38:30
Speaker 1: got Steven vote for three million dollars. Scott Kingery four
38:33
Speaker 1: million dollars, supposed to be the highest prospect in the
38:35
Speaker 1: Philly system boomed down to minor leagues. This right, and
38:39
Speaker 1: we're getting Archie Bradley. Shout out to broken aarraw loocahome
38:42
Speaker 1: of Archie Bradley. We got Archie Bradley coming in on
38:44
Speaker 1: a one year contract to show up what was possibly
38:47
Speaker 1: the worst bullpen I've ever seen in the history of
38:50
Speaker 1: bullpens in so, Phillies are in transition. They have huge contracts.
38:56
Speaker 1: We don't know what Dombrowski wants to do with these.
38:59
Speaker 1: I suspect there's gonna be a lot of moves so
39:01
Speaker 1: that they can contend, not against the Mets and Braves.
39:03
Speaker 1: This here, it's not gonna happen. Uh So they are sellers,
39:07
Speaker 1: which makes me want to hit under their win total.
39:10
Speaker 1: What's the blue Jay's total and what's the Phillies total?
39:12
Speaker 1: Blue Jays over eighties six Phillies under eighty one and
39:16
Speaker 1: a half all day. He pretty much said what I
39:18
Speaker 1: thought in the back of my mind, like I'm trying
39:20
Speaker 1: to be optimistic as the Phillies fan literally going through
39:23
Speaker 1: the golden age of Utly Howard Jimmy Rollins Cole handles
39:26
Speaker 1: our picture. Like when I look at Basem, I always
39:28
Speaker 1: think it's one of these things where you build in
39:30
Speaker 1: the infield, you can whatever catcher is replaceable, like we
39:33
Speaker 1: had Chuoge where wees he was a great Like you're
39:35
Speaker 1: talking about framing catcher. He was a great framing catcher.
39:37
Speaker 1: But like you just said, the under it's really appealing.
39:40
Speaker 1: What I'm thinking here is it is this even more
39:42
Speaker 1: of a reason to really back them Nets. It seems
39:45
Speaker 1: like in this division and Mets are so far above
39:46
Speaker 1: everyone else, Like is Washington really gonna go peep with
39:49
Speaker 1: the Mets. It just I can't see in their team
39:50
Speaker 1: that's really gonna give the Mets of problems coming year.
39:52
Speaker 1: I was wondering if Sean can break down what's going
39:54
Speaker 1: on with that. The Braves absolutely scared the daylights out
39:57
Speaker 1: of it. This Braves team is loaded with young talent,
39:59
Speaker 1: young pitcher, and I think Ian Anderson, who came up
40:01
Speaker 1: and pitched extremely well in the playoffs last year, could
40:04
Speaker 1: be the best pitcher on their team, and that included
40:07
Speaker 1: cy young candidate Max Freed and Sneaky Sun young candidate
40:10
Speaker 1: Mike Zarroko who's coming back from injury this year. So
40:13
Speaker 1: Akuna is one of the best young players in the game.
40:15
Speaker 1: I think the Braves are just loaded with young talent
40:17
Speaker 1: and upside. I do show value on their under ninety
40:19
Speaker 1: one and a half, but I'm not touching it. The
40:22
Speaker 1: projector markets being kind of low on them for a
40:24
Speaker 1: few seasons now and they keep exceeding it, and based
40:26
Speaker 1: on the talent they have in their roster, they're one
40:28
Speaker 1: of the actually richest teams in baseball. Sneakily, I think
40:31
Speaker 1: they're in the top five or top three even uh
40:33
Speaker 1: So they're gonna keep willing to spend. So the Braves
40:36
Speaker 1: do scare me a little bit, but not enough to
40:38
Speaker 1: back off my Mets features. Kind of have more of
40:41
Speaker 1: a neutral opinion on the Phillies. I just think that
40:43
Speaker 1: being the fourth best of the fourth best team in
40:46
Speaker 1: the strongest division in baseball with a really strong young
40:49
Speaker 1: team like the Marlins coming up behind them, it's just
40:52
Speaker 1: a lot to overcome. Uh you know, the NL East
40:54
Speaker 1: isn't gonna get too wild card teams, so that means
40:57
Speaker 1: that you have to beat one of the Mets are
40:58
Speaker 1: Braves and then still have enough win is to even
41:00
Speaker 1: make the second spot. So kind of a neutral take
41:03
Speaker 1: on the Phillies, but really, if we're looking at win totals,
41:06
Speaker 1: it's the same way that I analyze divisional or World
41:09
Speaker 1: Series odds. I need that most conservative or least optimistic
41:13
Speaker 1: projection to exceed what the total is. Uh So, two
41:17
Speaker 1: teams that I'm looking at that I think pretty much
41:19
Speaker 1: everywhere the Astros over eighty seven and a half and
41:22
Speaker 1: the Pirates, who were awful, but I think they're still
41:25
Speaker 1: gonna win more than fifty eight and a half games.
41:27
Speaker 1: They're in the weakest division in baseball, in the L Central.
41:30
Speaker 1: It's gonna be tough for a lot of those teams
41:32
Speaker 1: that even break five hundred. The Cardinals under we talked
41:35
Speaker 1: about as well, just based upon where they are. Um,
41:39
Speaker 1: you know, the Cardinals are team who generally exceed their
41:41
Speaker 1: win total because they're so strong defensively. They've had some
41:44
Speaker 1: injuries though too. I mentioned that the guys are ready,
41:47
Speaker 1: but also Harrison Vader, who's a really strong defensive center
41:50
Speaker 1: field there is gonna be out for a little bit.
41:53
Speaker 1: The two under teams that I'm looking at right now,
41:55
Speaker 1: Chicago White Sox under ninety and a half wins you
41:58
Speaker 1: a him and has just got hurt. He's to be
42:00
Speaker 1: out for at least five months, probably the whole season
42:02
Speaker 1: based on how it looks, so the White Sox are
42:05
Speaker 1: willing to spend they're going to replace that whole He's
42:07
Speaker 1: a bad defender, but he's one of the best sitters
42:08
Speaker 1: in the American League. I think that's a big injury,
42:10
Speaker 1: and I think that really opens up the Ale Central
42:12
Speaker 1: a little bit. And the Oakland is under eighty seven
42:15
Speaker 1: and a half again, another team that has exceeded their
42:18
Speaker 1: projected win total for a few seasons now. But really
42:21
Speaker 1: I just think with the way the Astros look the
42:23
Speaker 1: way that the Angels look, Otani is look a little
42:25
Speaker 1: bit better in spring than he looked earlier in the
42:28
Speaker 1: in the off season, So I think the AL West
42:30
Speaker 1: is shaping up where the A's could be up against
42:32
Speaker 1: it a little bit this year. I won't be surprised
42:34
Speaker 1: that they exceed that number, but the value looks like
42:36
Speaker 1: it's they're they're projected ranges eight four wins, so you're
42:39
Speaker 1: still getting at least three and a half of wins
42:41
Speaker 1: of value even if you go with the most optimistic
42:43
Speaker 1: projection there. All right, Zarillo, last year you nailed Trevor
42:48
Speaker 1: Bauer for Cy Young. In your right up, tell people
42:53
Speaker 1: right now your favorites for Cy Young n L m
42:59
Speaker 1: v P an A O m v P Yes. So
43:04
Speaker 1: there's certain criteria that you just need to need to
43:06
Speaker 1: hit in order to be able to get in the conversation.
43:08
Speaker 1: So I usually pick off about three or four guys
43:10
Speaker 1: in easially for Cy Young, and then I just stick
43:12
Speaker 1: with one person in each league for m v P UM,
43:17
Speaker 1: so we're going by m VPS. I have Jose Ramirez
43:19
Speaker 1: in the AL. I think the Indians in general are
43:22
Speaker 1: just a little bit undervalued, and he takes all the boxes.
43:25
Speaker 1: I believe he's third and wins above replacement since the
43:28
Speaker 1: midpoint of the TIN season, and that includes time where
43:31
Speaker 1: he missed most of September, so there's just tons of
43:34
Speaker 1: upside with Ramirez. He looked like a completely transformed hitter
43:38
Speaker 1: after struggling earlier in that season, and he's kind of
43:40
Speaker 1: on an island relative to his teammates in terms of
43:42
Speaker 1: offensive output. So if if Cleveland ends up winning the
43:45
Speaker 1: Al Central, he's probably going to be the reason why,
43:48
Speaker 1: and he's certainly gonna have the numbers to claim it.
43:50
Speaker 1: But really, my most confident player, future player that I
43:54
Speaker 1: want to have stock in, is Juan Soto. Um people
43:57
Speaker 1: realize that he's great, but I don't think they realized
44:00
Speaker 1: context of how great he is. Four of the six
44:03
Speaker 1: projection systems that I rely on have him already is
44:06
Speaker 1: a better hitter than Mike Trout. If you look at
44:09
Speaker 1: historical context, if you talk to scouts, if you talk
44:12
Speaker 1: to managers who are around for it during that time,
44:15
Speaker 1: the comp on him is Ted Williams. And if you
44:17
Speaker 1: look at the filters for data in terms of what
44:19
Speaker 1: they've already put up through age, they're the only two
44:23
Speaker 1: players in MLB history with a walk rate grader than
44:26
Speaker 1: home run puls walk rate and a season with more
44:30
Speaker 1: walks than strikeouts where they led the legan on base percentage. Again,
44:33
Speaker 1: the only two baseball players in history through a Juan
44:37
Speaker 1: Soto and Ted Williams. So man, I think Sotos live
44:41
Speaker 1: for a triple crown, not just this year, but in
44:43
Speaker 1: the future. UM, I only have him for m v
44:46
Speaker 1: P A plus eight fifty I have from most home
44:48
Speaker 1: runs in eighteen and one. I like that to fifteen one.
44:51
Speaker 1: Soto is a guy I'm heavily invested in. I think
44:54
Speaker 1: the gram is kind of as close as you can
44:56
Speaker 1: get to a lock for n L. S I Young
44:57
Speaker 1: if he stays healthy. His a city actually increased last year.
45:01
Speaker 1: The guys seemingly getting better with age converted. Shortstop doesn't
45:04
Speaker 1: have as much mileage on his arm as other pictures
45:07
Speaker 1: that can do him do so. I really like the ground.
45:10
Speaker 1: But there's some other long shots in the ANIL and
45:11
Speaker 1: taking a look at my PreO, one of which is
45:13
Speaker 1: probably Brandon would ruff one. You've been big on the
45:17
Speaker 1: Brewers on this podcast, but rud Or if he is
45:20
Speaker 1: going to be a big driver their successes here. He's
45:22
Speaker 1: a work horse. He's gonna get the two hundred innings,
45:23
Speaker 1: probably two hundred strikeouts of peace days healthy. And I'm
45:26
Speaker 1: on a L side. I really like the improvements that
45:29
Speaker 1: kent Onmaly made last season with the Twins. It's rare
45:32
Speaker 1: that you have a picture or a player lead the
45:34
Speaker 1: Dodgers and find improvements, but his Vacoda protections are extremely optimistic.
45:39
Speaker 1: They have his ear A close to about three point
45:41
Speaker 1: to five, so he's right up with the leaders in
45:44
Speaker 1: the A l. If he gets thirty turns and averages
45:46
Speaker 1: six innings per start and has better ratios, he's a
45:50
Speaker 1: really good defense behind him. If he has better ratios
45:52
Speaker 1: and the guys who are little bit ahead of him
45:53
Speaker 1: and strike out, it's like Giolito and like Derek Cole,
45:56
Speaker 1: he's gonna be in the conversation. He finished second last
45:59
Speaker 1: year behind Shane Bieber, who's the ananimous, so he's already
46:01
Speaker 1: on the minds of voters. So Kent to my head
46:03
Speaker 1: is a long shot. I think it's certainly worth the
46:05
Speaker 1: price of the ticket. And I love that you just
46:08
Speaker 1: have in the player props. That's one of my favorite
46:10
Speaker 1: things at Bedford Baseball. I like the long shots, the
46:12
Speaker 1: home runs or most kids are different things like that.
46:15
Speaker 1: So it's when in Colin do you have a like
46:16
Speaker 1: a player? He said so too. I looked at his
46:19
Speaker 1: home run proper. Are there any guys you're looking at
46:21
Speaker 1: the lead the league and Horme runs that you think
46:22
Speaker 1: there's really good value on for the prop? Yeah, I'll
46:25
Speaker 1: have to pace myself here because I talked about it
46:28
Speaker 1: at length and the Action Network Baseball preview back when
46:30
Speaker 1: we cut that I think January or February. But I
46:33
Speaker 1: cannot believe that ti Oscar Hernandez came out at five
46:37
Speaker 1: one to win the home run Zips has him I
46:40
Speaker 1: think six or seven home runs off of like who
46:44
Speaker 1: they project to have the most hormons. That might have
46:45
Speaker 1: been Pete Alonzo. I'm not sure, but Tioscar Hernandez is
46:49
Speaker 1: the kind of guy that you absolutely want to look
46:53
Speaker 1: for when it comes to value and the fact that
46:56
Speaker 1: they are ascending in the world of power. And there's
46:59
Speaker 1: a lot lot of other outside factors that are going
47:01
Speaker 1: on with the Blue Jays, but hey, he is in
47:04
Speaker 1: the penthouse of this lineup. He's batting fourth, in between
47:08
Speaker 1: Bo Baschette, He's right above Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He has
47:11
Speaker 1: got just the most perfect spot in the most perfect
47:14
Speaker 1: offensive lineup. And so I mentioned him so much for like,
47:17
Speaker 1: you know, winning the home run crown, uh, like being
47:20
Speaker 1: an outside m VP candidate. If the Blue Jays make
47:23
Speaker 1: a run and win the division, which is completely you know,
47:25
Speaker 1: that's more of a long shot I'd rather take him
47:27
Speaker 1: for home runs. But I've been rostering him in fantasy
47:30
Speaker 1: baseball for years, and the reason is because his street.
47:33
Speaker 1: He's always been streaky in power, like you're gonna get
47:35
Speaker 1: eight home runs in one week and then you'll get
47:37
Speaker 1: nothing for the next week. So he's a great DFS
47:39
Speaker 1: play or a Fantasy baseball play. But then in nineteen
47:42
Speaker 1: he got very consistent with his home runs, and last
47:45
Speaker 1: year he hit sixteen home runs in less than fifty
47:49
Speaker 1: His ISO went way up, his exit velocity went up
47:52
Speaker 1: two miles per hour, and he said, it's only two
47:53
Speaker 1: miles per hour the league average in exit velocity because
47:57
Speaker 1: they're screwing around with the ball. It went down to
48:00
Speaker 1: miles an hour. So as everybody else had a lower
48:02
Speaker 1: exit velocity, has actually ticked up two miles an hour. Uh,
48:05
Speaker 1: he's projected about fourth. Like I said, tons of line
48:08
Speaker 1: of protection. And then the one thing that you've got
48:10
Speaker 1: to look at is his spray chart. His spray chart
48:13
Speaker 1: is all left field, poll left center. And if you
48:16
Speaker 1: haven't known, the Toronto Blue Jays are playing down in Dunedin.
48:20
Speaker 1: Right there single a Florida State League ballpark where they
48:23
Speaker 1: do their spring training. Go up and pull up a
48:26
Speaker 1: wind map of how it looks in that town with
48:29
Speaker 1: that ballpark, and where the wind blows it is straight
48:31
Speaker 1: out to left. And I know it was because that's
48:34
Speaker 1: the last time we had minor league baseball. But if
48:36
Speaker 1: you look at park factors, and yes, I'm that big
48:39
Speaker 1: of a dork, if you look at park factors for
48:41
Speaker 1: single A baseball, that was the second highest home run
48:44
Speaker 1: rate for for all of the teams that part dunedin.
48:48
Speaker 1: Uh So you know, if they're single A team is
48:51
Speaker 1: jack and bombs out of that park. What is ti
48:53
Speaker 1: Oscar Hernandez gonna do with all that exit velocity? Right?
48:57
Speaker 1: And his spray chart matches the wind perfectly. Sign me
49:00
Speaker 1: up for what was a five one three, one two one.
49:05
Speaker 1: I think I've seen some sixty two one still out there.
49:08
Speaker 1: I love it. I absolutely love that problem. Yeah, I
49:12
Speaker 1: think Colin nailed it with the Blue Jays. I think
49:13
Speaker 1: the Blue Jays are gonna swing so many fantasy leagues
49:15
Speaker 1: this year, positive or negative, depending on those part plays out.
49:18
Speaker 1: But man, I have Vladimir Guerrero Junior fift in my
49:22
Speaker 1: RBI projections, and everyone around him in my projections is
49:25
Speaker 1: listed between twenty five and thirty two one for Moost
49:27
Speaker 1: rb i's you can get him at sixty two one
49:29
Speaker 1: a fandle. That's one of my favorite profits out there
49:31
Speaker 1: right now. The precess doesn't make sense. You should be
49:34
Speaker 1: half that number of based upon the projections. So if
49:36
Speaker 1: you're looking for more of a long shot though, you know,
49:39
Speaker 1: alongside Colin in the home run market, mcgilson knows the
49:42
Speaker 1: guy I've been on for a couple of years now.
49:44
Speaker 1: His power metrics are off the charts. He's been amongst
49:47
Speaker 1: the highest in barrels per played appearance for a few
49:50
Speaker 1: years now. Just has insane power. It really comes down
49:53
Speaker 1: to playing time for him at this point, and I
49:56
Speaker 1: like to target guys who have shown power who if
49:58
Speaker 1: they can improve one skill, which would be contact rate,
50:00
Speaker 1: we're gonna explode. So there's fifty home runs in that
50:03
Speaker 1: bat and you can get him at I think greater
50:06
Speaker 1: than fifty one in a lot of places, but as
50:07
Speaker 1: high as to one it at one book, So definitely
50:10
Speaker 1: shop around for a really good number on to know.
50:13
Speaker 1: And then one of my sneaky favorite props right now,
50:16
Speaker 1: it's it's actually a most saves prop on Trevor Rosenthal
50:18
Speaker 1: he signed late with the A's. He's replacing William Hendricks,
50:22
Speaker 1: who led the American League and staves or led all
50:24
Speaker 1: of baseball and saves since the midpoint of the nine season,
50:27
Speaker 1: so he certainly got the opportunities to convert those days
50:31
Speaker 1: rebounded from Tommy John was awful the first year coming back,
50:35
Speaker 1: had career best rates across the board. Last year was
50:39
Speaker 1: absolutely tremendous. He's eighth on my saves leaderboard. Everyone around
50:43
Speaker 1: him is in the ten to fourteen range, so one
50:46
Speaker 1: even or better. I really like Rosenthald for most days.
50:50
Speaker 1: You know what you guys have done. You have made
50:53
Speaker 1: me so excited to sit in front of the television
50:57
Speaker 1: on April one and watch base ball and think about
51:02
Speaker 1: Zarillo's projections. And by the way, everything Zarillo is talking about,
51:06
Speaker 1: everything Colin is talking about go read it in the
51:09
Speaker 1: Action Network gap. It's free downloaded. Follow all of Zarillo's projections.
51:15
Speaker 1: You can get detailed information that goes even further than
51:19
Speaker 1: these guys did in this podcast. Listen to the Action
51:22
Speaker 1: Network podcast. They recorded another one. The recording another one
51:26
Speaker 1: tomorrow to come out in advance of opening day on Thursday.
51:33
Speaker 1: It's phenomenal, honest to God, like I want to be
51:36
Speaker 1: thinking about park factors and wind and spray charts. That
51:41
Speaker 1: just it makes baseball sound. It gets rid of all
51:44
Speaker 1: the bullshit about the ball, all the bullshit about the
51:47
Speaker 1: piece of play. It just gets interesting. The numbers game chat.
51:52
Speaker 1: There's there's nothing more fun than solving number puzzles when
51:55
Speaker 1: when you think you have an advantage over somebody else.
51:57
Speaker 1: So listen, if you I see some larity's other sports,
52:01
Speaker 1: like if you like betting, horse racing, stuff like that,
52:03
Speaker 1: you know, I think it's fun to bet on different
52:05
Speaker 1: sports because you can date different pieces of it and
52:07
Speaker 1: apply it to different things. And really you're just playing
52:10
Speaker 1: numbers puzzle and trying to figure out how to put
52:12
Speaker 1: a portfolio together that will give you expected value at
52:14
Speaker 1: the end of the year. I think the first month
52:17
Speaker 1: of the MLB season is going to be the most
52:19
Speaker 1: wild that we've had in a long time. And the
52:21
Speaker 1: reason I say that is because there was no minor
52:24
Speaker 1: league baseball in You're eighteen and nineteen year olds are
52:27
Speaker 1: now twenty and twenty one year olds. They're they're developing
52:30
Speaker 1: a lot more. Uh, you are going to have to
52:33
Speaker 1: adjust overnight too. Pictures and hitters I mean, I'm going
52:38
Speaker 1: through with my Kansas City Royals. This Bobby Whitkid, junior
52:41
Speaker 1: kid is absolutely on fire. I think he could win
52:44
Speaker 1: Rookie of the Year. And he did not look anything
52:47
Speaker 1: like this two years ago when he was playing in
52:50
Speaker 1: low A ball. Uh So, whatever has happened during the
52:52
Speaker 1: pandemic in twenty he's a completely different player. I think
52:56
Speaker 1: that's going to apply to a lot of the prospects
52:58
Speaker 1: at all of these teams. These are the most loaded
53:01
Speaker 1: rookie of your races I can ever remember in my lifetime.
53:04
Speaker 1: Probably for baseball. There's just so many guys like Randy
53:07
Speaker 1: Rosa Rainow, who was the World Series Star last year,
53:10
Speaker 1: who have carried over their rookie eligibility status. I mean,
53:13
Speaker 1: it's hard to even bet any of these guys because
53:15
Speaker 1: there's probably twenty candidates and easily a good one. Well listen,
53:18
Speaker 1: I think it's appropriate that we opened the Baseball Potion
53:21
Speaker 1: into the podcast with Colin Wilson talking about watching college baseball,
53:26
Speaker 1: and we end it with Colin Wilson talking about watching
53:30
Speaker 1: single A baseball For Royal's prospects. Gotta follow the beat.
53:35
Speaker 1: Reporter in Wilmington's Chad unbelievable. Listen Baseball opening Day April one.
53:41
Speaker 1: Get everything in need in the Action Network at Follow Seanzillo,
53:44
Speaker 1: follow Colin Wilson for my co host, Simon Hunter. I
53:48
Speaker 1: am Chad Millman. This has been the favorites podcast from
53:52
Speaker 1: the Volume podcast Network. We will be back on Thursday
53:56
Speaker 1: with the thunder Dome addition, Mad Cat Trivia. Down on
54:01
Speaker 1: the podcast from Apple Podcasts, from Spotify, wherever you get
54:05
Speaker 1: your podcast. Until next time, I love you, yeah h