Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / NFL Survivor Pool | 9/03/25 | Picks, Analysis and Strategy

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NFL Survivor Pool | 9/03/25 | Picks, Analysis and Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, all systems don't clear the lift.
0:17
Speaker 2: Mh, let's going on everyone, This is sheets and I
0:43
Speaker 2: don't know that intro always seems to get everybody all excited.
0:48
Speaker 2: Welcome everybody to uh, Survivor content, cool content, whatever you
0:54
Speaker 2: want to call it. Hopefully this is a really really
0:57
Speaker 2: interesting journey for everybody, and hopefully at least my first
1:01
Speaker 2: time with the technology is not a complete and colossal
1:04
Speaker 2: train wreck. That's always the first thing to get past.
1:08
Speaker 2: So let me first get into the environments that we're
1:13
Speaker 2: in right now. So for those of you that don't
1:17
Speaker 2: know me back from previous endeavors, I mean I used
1:19
Speaker 2: to be in the poker business like a long time ago.
1:21
Speaker 3: And.
1:23
Speaker 2: Where we are in Survivor and in pool content is
1:26
Speaker 2: very similar to where we were when I got into
1:28
Speaker 2: poker back in two thousand and four. Is you have
1:31
Speaker 2: this incredible confluence of events right now in that you
1:36
Speaker 2: have this contest, these types of contests such as Survivor
1:40
Speaker 2: pools that are becoming extraordinarily big. You know, you have
1:45
Speaker 2: Splash running million dollar guarantees, you have Circa running twenty
1:49
Speaker 2: million dollars, you have everybody wanting to play Survivor pool stuff,
1:54
Speaker 2: and In addition to that, people are terrible. Okay, So
2:00
Speaker 2: usually what happens is is, but when people are terrible
2:05
Speaker 2: and you have an edge, there's no action, right and
2:08
Speaker 2: then sometimes by the time that the action is big enough,
2:12
Speaker 2: everybody kind of knows how to play. But the way
2:15
Speaker 2: poker worked back in the day is there was this
2:16
Speaker 2: period of time for about five years where not only
2:20
Speaker 2: was there incredible action, but everybody was awful. And that's
2:24
Speaker 2: basically where we are right now in survivor pool business. Okay,
2:29
Speaker 2: the development of the circa contest, the development of splash
2:33
Speaker 2: and all this stuff has accelerated the amount of action
2:37
Speaker 2: to such a degree and the ability of people to
2:40
Speaker 2: play well has just gone nowhere. Okay, So you're in
2:46
Speaker 2: a very unique position right now where you can really
2:50
Speaker 2: fire and take advantage of this situation. Now I'll add
2:55
Speaker 2: another thing again, not to create a holy work, but
2:58
Speaker 2: I'll do it anyway. There's another thing that's unique about this,
3:02
Speaker 2: which respect to survivor pool content and survivor pools in general,
3:06
Speaker 2: is that back in poker, when you had you know, this,
3:10
Speaker 2: this this state of affairs, there were like a couple
3:14
Speaker 2: of content providers that taught people how to play, and
3:18
Speaker 2: they were actually pretty good. But in this situation, you
3:23
Speaker 2: have so many people that have like these X podcasts
3:27
Speaker 2: and the Survivor podcasts and and even paid subscription sites,
3:32
Speaker 2: and I have to tell you, like, they're even worse
3:35
Speaker 2: than the Fish players. Okay, it's it's really amazing to
3:40
Speaker 2: me to watch this. So you have that kind of
3:43
Speaker 2: thrown in as well. You have everybody wants to play,
3:48
Speaker 2: nobody knows how to play, and nobody knows how to
3:50
Speaker 2: teach people how to play. So you have this perfect situation.
3:54
Speaker 2: So when I talk to the guys about this, I'm like,
3:56
Speaker 2: you know what, let's let's try to let's try to
3:58
Speaker 2: do this. Let's try to hop on. Now. The other
4:01
Speaker 2: thing is there is sort of a sense of urgency
4:03
Speaker 2: here because I say that we have about well somewhere
4:09
Speaker 2: between three and five years of this because unfortunately Survivor
4:14
Speaker 2: pools and this type of thing is something that I
4:17
Speaker 2: promise you was eventually going to get solved with SIMS
4:21
Speaker 2: and coding, like most things do. And so once that happens,
4:27
Speaker 2: then this edge is gone. Okay, listen, I'll probably still
4:31
Speaker 2: keep playing, you know whatever. But it's like DFS, you
4:34
Speaker 2: know it's I still play dfs, but it's obviously much harder,
4:38
Speaker 2: you know, with with the advent of all the sims
4:40
Speaker 2: and all the coders and all the and all this
4:42
Speaker 2: type of thing. Okay, so it's a very it's a
4:45
Speaker 2: it's something that you put twenty million dollars up for
4:47
Speaker 2: grabs with Circa and all this money in splash, Someone's
4:50
Speaker 2: gonna figure it out, and someone is gonna sim this,
4:53
Speaker 2: and somebody is gonna code this, and you're just and
4:56
Speaker 2: the edge is gonna be gone. Okay. But because it's
4:59
Speaker 2: football and so many casuals and the fact of Survivor
5:04
Speaker 2: pools are itself such a freaking amazing sucker bet that
5:09
Speaker 2: I think that it's gonna last more than three years
5:11
Speaker 2: and probably have five years. So that's something also to consider.
5:15
Speaker 2: All Right, So let's talk about let's talk about We're
5:19
Speaker 2: going to talk about it. So I think this week
5:22
Speaker 2: we're doing this for free, but I'm gonna kind of
5:25
Speaker 2: go over some of the things that I'm gonna talk
5:27
Speaker 2: about with Survivor. We're gonna go into week one and
5:29
Speaker 2: all this stuff, and then we're gonna continue on I
5:32
Speaker 2: think the rest of the season. We'll talk about other
5:34
Speaker 2: things too, Like I'm in the Circa Millions pool, so
5:36
Speaker 2: we'll talk about something against the spread stuff as well.
5:40
Speaker 2: And then when we get to March Madness, that's a
5:42
Speaker 2: whole other puzzle, not the bracket pool stuff, but the
5:46
Speaker 2: March Madness survivor. That's awesome, right, That's awesome. But for
5:51
Speaker 2: the most part we're gonna be talking about survivor pool stuff.
5:54
Speaker 2: And we do have a tool that I'm gonna debut
5:57
Speaker 2: for you guys. It's fine. I'm gonna have to say
5:59
Speaker 2: it's fine. What's good about it? It's customizable, and we'll
6:02
Speaker 2: talk about that we get there. But the majority of
6:05
Speaker 2: the value added you're going to get is honestly me
6:07
Speaker 2: teaching you how to play. I'm going to give you
6:11
Speaker 2: everything I have for my twenty years of experience figuring
6:14
Speaker 2: the stuff out, and quite honestly, if I've done my
6:18
Speaker 2: job right that after a year, you won't even need
6:21
Speaker 2: to come back for a second year. I mean, because
6:23
Speaker 2: not that I'm saying it's easy, but if you commit
6:25
Speaker 2: to this and you commit to the concepts, it's really
6:28
Speaker 2: not that hard. Okay. You just have to dispense with
6:32
Speaker 2: a lot of your preconceived notions about how these things
6:35
Speaker 2: are supposed to be played, and it's an amazing sucker bet.
6:38
Speaker 2: You know, you tell to somebody about it to Survivor,
6:40
Speaker 2: But what do you do? You just pick one team
6:42
Speaker 2: to win? What do you mean to win? You just
6:43
Speaker 2: to win? Like yeah, no spread out, So I could
6:46
Speaker 2: pick like the Eagles, of course, and you just got
6:48
Speaker 2: to pick a different team every week. Oh, what's the
6:50
Speaker 2: big deal. I'll take the top teams and then I'll
6:52
Speaker 2: figure it out later, you know. And so it's an
6:54
Speaker 2: amazing sucker bet like that that people think that that's
6:57
Speaker 2: it's something easy to do, and then the sucker bit
7:01
Speaker 2: goes another level, like sometimes it's a really bad team,
7:04
Speaker 2: like let's say Cleveland a couple of years ago, when
7:06
Speaker 2: they were threatened to go, oh and whatever, people say,
7:09
Speaker 2: this is easy. Just bet against Cleveland every week, right,
7:12
Speaker 2: what could be so easy? So the fact that it
7:15
Speaker 2: is such an incredible sucker bet is going to just
7:17
Speaker 2: keep people playing and you're gonna have almost like an
7:20
Speaker 2: instant edge. I mentioned Splash by the way. I mean
7:25
Speaker 2: just take a look at some of this stuff, like
7:27
Speaker 2: this is the Splash Lobby. Look at these prize pools,
7:31
Speaker 2: like two point five million, one point eight million, like
7:33
Speaker 2: some guaranteed money one million, one million. It's just craziness.
7:38
Speaker 2: Ship a nation, oh shout out, ship a nation has
7:41
Speaker 2: a survivor pool two hundred and fifty thousand guaranteed. Okay,
7:45
Speaker 2: twenty five dollars entry. So this action all over the
7:48
Speaker 2: effing place. Okay, So we're gonna talk about this. You
7:54
Speaker 2: can feel free to ask questions. We're gonna have a
7:56
Speaker 2: discord channel where we can, you know, tilt and talk
7:59
Speaker 2: about whatever. But here, here's the thing. I want to
8:04
Speaker 2: start with a right And this is gonna be really hard.
8:07
Speaker 2: It'd be really hard for you to do. As football fans,
8:10
Speaker 2: I presume most of your football fans, I wish you weren't.
8:14
Speaker 2: I wish you didn't know anything about football. You'd be
8:16
Speaker 2: much easier to teach. Okay, you have to dispense with
8:21
Speaker 2: all of your knowledge or perceived knowledge of football, of teams,
8:28
Speaker 2: of coaches, of players, of trends of everything. You know.
8:33
Speaker 2: When we pull this up, I almost would rather you
8:38
Speaker 2: just not even know what these team names mean, Okay,
8:41
Speaker 2: that they were just dots on a scoreboard or on
8:43
Speaker 2: a spreadsheet. Because once you start putting your own thoughts
8:47
Speaker 2: and your own opinions on what's supposed to happen with
8:50
Speaker 2: these teams. You are just turning yourself into dead money
8:54
Speaker 2: really really quickly. Okay, and we'll get into that when
8:58
Speaker 2: we get into that, all right. Okay, one other thing
9:03
Speaker 2: before we get into this, a couple of disclaimers. Number one,
9:06
Speaker 2: all pools are different. All your rules are different. For example,
9:10
Speaker 2: when we get to it, like half of the big
9:12
Speaker 2: splash pools this year require double picks in week eleven
9:16
Speaker 2: or later, where if you go into draft game to
9:20
Speaker 2: some of the pure sites you can have only you know,
9:22
Speaker 2: just one pick a week. And you have to treat
9:25
Speaker 2: all of these things differently. Okay, So what is the key?
9:32
Speaker 2: How do you win? Survivor? All right? So there are
9:36
Speaker 2: two numbers or two components to survive. Okay. One is
9:45
Speaker 2: EV and for those of you that are in DFS
9:47
Speaker 2: or anything but MATTH, just expected value. Okay. All expected
9:53
Speaker 2: value is is a team's chance of winning as a
9:57
Speaker 2: function of their ownership. Another words, what are you what's
10:01
Speaker 2: the team's chance of winning today? And then you have
10:04
Speaker 2: to factor in how many people are likely to be
10:07
Speaker 2: playing them. It's kind of like DFS. It's kind of
10:10
Speaker 2: like you know, sort of where it's not just who
10:16
Speaker 2: rates to score the most points, but how many times
10:17
Speaker 2: people are gonna play them. But it's very similar. So
10:20
Speaker 2: all ev IS is a combination of what your team's
10:25
Speaker 2: winning chances are and how often people rate to play them.
10:29
Speaker 2: Because obviously you have two teams playing, they both have
10:31
Speaker 2: seventy percent chance to win. If one's gonna be ninety
10:34
Speaker 2: percent owned, the one's going to be forty percent owned,
10:36
Speaker 2: you want to pick the team that's forty percent only
10:38
Speaker 2: that's gonna have higher ev Like how much money do
10:41
Speaker 2: you rate to win on this particular week. Okay, So
10:45
Speaker 2: all that goes in to that calculation are the two
10:49
Speaker 2: numbers of what the team's winning chances are and what
10:54
Speaker 2: and how often they're likely to be picked, And we're
10:56
Speaker 2: going to get into all them. The second concept that
11:00
Speaker 2: goes into your survivor pick is the concept of future value.
11:04
Speaker 2: And what future value basically means is if you don't
11:09
Speaker 2: pick them today, how likely are going to use them
11:12
Speaker 2: in the future. In other words, I have a chance
11:15
Speaker 2: to pick the Arizona Cardinals today. If I don't, is
11:19
Speaker 2: there going to be a better time to use them
11:21
Speaker 2: in the future. Okay. Now, the cool thing about survivor
11:26
Speaker 2: pools and why it's not completely solved yet is that
11:29
Speaker 2: while EV is calculable and its math, and if you
11:35
Speaker 2: know those first two numbers then you can calculate EV,
11:39
Speaker 2: future value is not so easy. Okay. Future value is
11:44
Speaker 2: a little more art than science. You can't just say
11:48
Speaker 2: their future value is two or their future value is nine.
11:53
Speaker 2: And again that's what makes it kind of cool. Okay. Now,
11:57
Speaker 2: the other thing that makes survivor cool is that you
12:01
Speaker 2: don't know exactly what the right combination of good EV
12:06
Speaker 2: and low future value is. Okay, And once again it's
12:09
Speaker 2: art and science and I'm going to kind of show
12:11
Speaker 2: you how to work through that. But that's why it
12:14
Speaker 2: really hasn't been solved yet. There's no number that has
12:17
Speaker 2: taken all that into consideration yet. Okay. So the first thing,
12:23
Speaker 2: and this is very important that we're going to talk about,
12:26
Speaker 2: is the EV calculation. Now, what if you have here
12:30
Speaker 2: is a tool that we put up on Ship and Nation.
12:32
Speaker 2: It's really really easy. You could find this type of
12:35
Speaker 2: thing elsewhere. And all this does. It lists a team's
12:39
Speaker 2: win percentage for the week, and it also lists how
12:43
Speaker 2: often they're likely to be picked. And then what you
12:46
Speaker 2: can do is you can click on this button and
12:49
Speaker 2: it calculates the EV for you. Okay, now we have
12:54
Speaker 2: to talk about this sort of at length here and
12:56
Speaker 2: what all this means and what you can do. So
12:59
Speaker 2: we have this de fault number here, which takes into
13:02
Speaker 2: account what the Vegas implied win odds are. Okay, what
13:07
Speaker 2: you know, you take the average of of what you
13:12
Speaker 2: have to pay for one team on the money line
13:14
Speaker 2: versus the other team, and what basically Vegas is implied
13:17
Speaker 2: their win chances are. And then you have these ownership projections,
13:22
Speaker 2: which they're by default they're essentially the average of all
13:26
Speaker 2: the different ownership projections that they're available. But what you
13:31
Speaker 2: can do here is if you want to, you could
13:33
Speaker 2: customize all of these numbers, like if you want right,
13:37
Speaker 2: like if you're in a pool where you believe that
13:40
Speaker 2: a team is going to be higher owned than another team,
13:43
Speaker 2: you can change this and then recalculate your EV and
13:47
Speaker 2: it will relist your EV. I think that's pretty cool,
13:50
Speaker 2: especially if you're in some smaller pools where you could
13:53
Speaker 2: predict ownership a little better. You get later in the
13:55
Speaker 2: season where you know what people are going to pick
13:59
Speaker 2: you can change, and I think that's kind of need.
14:02
Speaker 2: So first thing is with this win percentage business, I
14:07
Speaker 2: strongly encourage you, and I don't mean to talk to
14:10
Speaker 2: you guys like you're five, okay, but but I strongly
14:13
Speaker 2: encourage you to not mess with this. Okay, what what
14:20
Speaker 2: is okay? What is New England's chance to win? Like
14:23
Speaker 2: for real, Okay, let's not say that we have this
14:25
Speaker 2: in front of us. What is New England's win percentage
14:28
Speaker 2: this week? The real answer is that we don't know, right,
14:34
Speaker 2: I mean that's that's we don't know. I mean that
14:36
Speaker 2: there is a percent chance, Like you know, if the
14:39
Speaker 2: entire world simulated the thing four billion times, we we
14:43
Speaker 2: could figure it out, Okay, but we don't have that
14:46
Speaker 2: in front of us, so we don't know. However, you
14:50
Speaker 2: have the most liquid market in the world of NFL
14:54
Speaker 2: betters that put billions of dollars into this, with bookies
14:59
Speaker 2: and and people at algorithms and all this stuff, and
15:03
Speaker 2: these win percentages, while I can't promise you they're accurate,
15:08
Speaker 2: they are clearly the best prediction that you will get. Okay.
15:15
Speaker 2: So if you're thinking of changing these win percentages because
15:20
Speaker 2: you feel that New England sucks to terminal take analytical term,
15:27
Speaker 2: or you think that Vegas is just worse because of
15:31
Speaker 2: blah blah blah blah blah. Right, I strongly encourage you
15:36
Speaker 2: to not to do this. Don't think of these as teams,
15:38
Speaker 2: don't think of these as people. Just think of these
15:41
Speaker 2: as numbers that you really shouldn't mess with, because once
15:44
Speaker 2: you start messing with the win percentage, then you start
15:47
Speaker 2: messing with the EV and then you start messing with
15:49
Speaker 2: your entire survivor life. Okay, So that is extraordinarily important
15:58
Speaker 2: with respect to the ownership projection. Unfortunately, there's no great
16:05
Speaker 2: ownership projection out there like this is what these ownership
16:09
Speaker 2: projections are are based on, essentially pulling like all of
16:16
Speaker 2: the pools that are out there as of this time,
16:20
Speaker 2: plus some projection model, and it's mostly based on single
16:24
Speaker 2: pick pools. Okay. So if you have a pool where
16:28
Speaker 2: your rules are different or where there are doubles in
16:31
Speaker 2: week eleven, these are gonna be different, Okay. And as
16:36
Speaker 2: we go through the season, we'll we'll talk about different
16:39
Speaker 2: adjustments that we can make. But the first for the
16:42
Speaker 2: first week, we're going to presume for the purpose of
16:44
Speaker 2: illustration that all of these, uh, these these ownership projections
16:49
Speaker 2: are at least somewhat somewhat accurate. So what you do
16:54
Speaker 2: is you calculate even for week one, and then you
16:58
Speaker 2: have a list of highest EV teams over here, and
17:02
Speaker 2: then you have what's key to all survivor pool players, okay,
17:08
Speaker 2: is some kind of map, some kind of grid where
17:13
Speaker 2: you can see what these teams are likely to do
17:16
Speaker 2: in the future, like who they're planning on playing, what
17:20
Speaker 2: their projected line should be, and and so on, and
17:26
Speaker 2: also what teams in a certain week rate to be
17:31
Speaker 2: the highest favorite team. So if I like click on
17:34
Speaker 2: week twelve, I'll see Baltimore will be the highest in
17:38
Speaker 2: week twelve and by maybe two points. Now, again, this
17:41
Speaker 2: stuff changes throughout the course of the season. But again
17:44
Speaker 2: all you can do is kind of operate on you know,
17:47
Speaker 2: the information that you have at your disposal right away. Okay, okay,
17:52
Speaker 2: So so what do you do here? You have these
17:57
Speaker 2: EV calculations, and you have top EV teams, and you
18:01
Speaker 2: have these future values these maps here. How do you
18:05
Speaker 2: handle this? Like, what do you do here? Well, let
18:08
Speaker 2: me first give you a little bit of caution about EV.
18:12
Speaker 2: Remember EV basically tells you how much you rate to
18:16
Speaker 2: win or you know, I guess like every single week. Right,
18:20
Speaker 2: So if you have say, you know, Philadelphia and EVA
18:25
Speaker 2: like one point one five, if you have one thousand
18:27
Speaker 2: dollars in an entry, you know, if you play at Philadelphia,
18:31
Speaker 2: you rate to win. You know, your your your entry
18:35
Speaker 2: rates to have a value on eleven hundred and fifteen dollars. Okay,
18:38
Speaker 2: So your rates to win one hundred and fifteen dollars
18:41
Speaker 2: by playing Philadelphia, all else being equal, okay, which it isn't, okay,
18:45
Speaker 2: but all's being equal. But I want you to think
18:48
Speaker 2: about this. Think about when it's week fourteen or week fifteen,
18:56
Speaker 2: where instead of everybody's entry worth one thousand dollars, we're
19:00
Speaker 2: gonna use that as an example here now in week
19:03
Speaker 2: fourteen to fifteen, when the pool's been decimated. Okay, Now,
19:07
Speaker 2: let's say that every entry is worth about, I don't know,
19:12
Speaker 2: you know, eighty thousand dollars or something like that. Now,
19:17
Speaker 2: if every entry is worth eighty thousand dollars, and if
19:20
Speaker 2: at that point you can get one point one point
19:24
Speaker 2: five ev, well, now it's worth it, you know what
19:26
Speaker 2: I mean. Now we're talking about real money here, and
19:29
Speaker 2: a mistake I see people make quite a bit is
19:34
Speaker 2: going for this EV when the EV isn't worth anything. Okay.
19:39
Speaker 2: What you should be really trying to do in Survivor
19:43
Speaker 2: is planned for a situation where the EV that you're
19:47
Speaker 2: gonna get is worth something. And you see that if
19:51
Speaker 2: you go back to old weeks, you'll see, like say
19:52
Speaker 2: in week fifteen, sweet sixteen, you'll have a team that's
19:55
Speaker 2: like a thirteen point favorite to win and their EV
19:59
Speaker 2: is like one point four, and you're sitting there saying, boy,
20:02
Speaker 2: I wish I had access to that team. Well, you
20:05
Speaker 2: know what, if you planned it right, you would, Okay,
20:10
Speaker 2: And that's what this whole thing is all about. So
20:13
Speaker 2: don't necessarily just take the top EV team. What you
20:17
Speaker 2: want to be doing is planning for those weeks where
20:19
Speaker 2: the EV is actually going to matter. Okay. I kind
20:25
Speaker 2: of call that just basically the EV trap. So let's
20:29
Speaker 2: talk for another few minutes about what week one looks
20:33
Speaker 2: like as as in general, you have all these teams
20:37
Speaker 2: and these are all of their evs. Okay, And here's
20:42
Speaker 2: an interesting question. DFS people will kind of relate to this.
20:45
Speaker 2: When you think about DFS, what you're trying to find
20:48
Speaker 2: are people that project really really well that no one
20:52
Speaker 2: else is going to play, right, That's that's daily fantasy
20:55
Speaker 2: sports nearvana is finding a player that nobody is gonna
20:59
Speaker 2: play that still projects really well. And we all know
21:03
Speaker 2: that that's I mean, it's like theoretically impossible, right, because
21:07
Speaker 2: if they projected really, really really well, then people just
21:10
Speaker 2: would play them. So to be able to find that
21:13
Speaker 2: is very, very difficult. And when you're here in week one,
21:16
Speaker 2: it's kind of similar here. You know, like you really
21:20
Speaker 2: are not going to find teams that have incredible chances
21:24
Speaker 2: to win that nobody is playing. Okay, however, and this
21:30
Speaker 2: is something, this is a real key. What if I
21:34
Speaker 2: told you that in week fifteen and week fourteen and
21:38
Speaker 2: week sixteen, for example, there are going to be many
21:43
Speaker 2: teams that have extraordinarily chances to win, but no one's
21:49
Speaker 2: going to be playing them. You might think, how is
21:52
Speaker 2: that possible? Like why wouldn't they play them if they
21:55
Speaker 2: have such great chances to win? Well, the key word
21:58
Speaker 2: that you don't really get see get thrown around in
22:01
Speaker 2: Survivor content is the concept of scarcity. Okay, it's not
22:07
Speaker 2: as if people don't want to play the thirteen point
22:10
Speaker 2: favorite team in week fifteen, it's that they don't have
22:14
Speaker 2: them available. Okay, it's because all the same people that
22:19
Speaker 2: wanted to play the thirteen point favorite in week fifteen
22:22
Speaker 2: just really got scared and needed to play something good
22:25
Speaker 2: in week two or three because they didn't want to
22:27
Speaker 2: gamble on a low EV spot. And now in week thirteen,
22:31
Speaker 2: they have this team that they that is worth a
22:34
Speaker 2: fortune okay, that now they just don't have access to.
22:38
Speaker 2: So the thing is is that when you go deeper
22:41
Speaker 2: and deeper into the season, the concept of scarcity just
22:46
Speaker 2: completely multiplies. Okay, And that's what you should be really
22:51
Speaker 2: planning for this whole year is Yet you want to
22:55
Speaker 2: be planning for good EV, but you want to really
22:59
Speaker 2: be playing for good EV when it really matters, meaning
23:02
Speaker 2: later in the season when all the good teams, not
23:05
Speaker 2: all of the teams, and when a lot of the
23:07
Speaker 2: good teams have been used and you'll be able to
23:10
Speaker 2: get that great deal of leverage. So that's like the setup, Like, like,
23:16
Speaker 2: that's the concept. Okay, don't worry too much about EV
23:20
Speaker 2: early if you can really hammer on that late. Okay,
23:27
Speaker 2: I think that this is probably a good time to
23:32
Speaker 2: get into like this week right, and and use a
23:39
Speaker 2: couple of teams as examples. Now, again, there are many
23:42
Speaker 2: different pools, many different rules, so and we'll as we
23:48
Speaker 2: go through the season, we will talk about the differences
23:50
Speaker 2: between what good picks are for single pick pools, what
23:54
Speaker 2: good picks are for double pick pools, depending on when
23:57
Speaker 2: the double picks happen. And I will talk about Circa
24:01
Speaker 2: all right, And that's actually rule number one A is
24:04
Speaker 2: that there are pools that are important except for Circa. Okay,
24:08
Speaker 2: And when you go on to X, all you hear
24:10
Speaker 2: about is Circuit. This circle that twenty million is okay, yeah, okay,
24:14
Speaker 2: that that's that's certainly fine. But there are zillions of
24:17
Speaker 2: other pools except for Circa that we're that we're going
24:20
Speaker 2: to be talking about. And what's what's cool about this
24:24
Speaker 2: year with Splash is that most not most all of them,
24:27
Speaker 2: but a lot of these really big pools, like the
24:29
Speaker 2: Big Splash two point five million dollar Survivor pool contest.
24:33
Speaker 2: We'll take a look at that one, for example, under
24:36
Speaker 2: where are the rules details? This one has double picks
24:42
Speaker 2: starting week eleven, for example, and that changes everything, right,
24:52
Speaker 2: the Ship and Nation pool, same thing. Actually, that one,
24:56
Speaker 2: I think has double picks starting week twelve. Okay, But
25:01
Speaker 2: but the point is is that those types of pools
25:05
Speaker 2: are to be treated differently than the regular single pick pools.
25:08
Speaker 2: Like here on DraftKings, like DraftKings like a million dollars,
25:12
Speaker 2: uh I deleted or whatever, But on the pools page
25:15
Speaker 2: for DraftKings, it's like a million dollars or first. And
25:18
Speaker 2: there's all kinds of them, but I think they're mostly
25:20
Speaker 2: all single pick pools, and they're all going to chop
25:23
Speaker 2: like one hundred and fifty ways at the end, and
25:25
Speaker 2: that's fine, okay, But but it's just kind of a
25:27
Speaker 2: different way to play. Okay. So if those have been
25:31
Speaker 2: kind of following this, you know, and trying to try
25:33
Speaker 2: to piece together kind of a plan based on what
25:36
Speaker 2: I said, all right, how would you think about planning
25:42
Speaker 2: a single pick pool as opposed to planning a double pickpool?
25:47
Speaker 2: For example, you know, if you're thinking of using a
25:50
Speaker 2: team now, if this were a single pickpool, you'd have
25:54
Speaker 2: to think, Okay, when am I going to use them
25:57
Speaker 2: in the future? Right, And as long as you know
25:59
Speaker 2: I'm not too hell bent on using them in the future,
26:03
Speaker 2: then I can use them now. But if you're in
26:05
Speaker 2: a double pick pool, and that team is available for
26:09
Speaker 2: you in weeks eleven through seventeen, when it gets almost impossible,
26:13
Speaker 2: then it's even more important to fade that team now.
26:17
Speaker 2: So the idea of balancing this ev versus future value
26:22
Speaker 2: thing is extremely dependent on the pool that you're in. So, like,
26:27
Speaker 2: if you're in a pool that's got doubles in week
26:29
Speaker 2: eleven and twelve, future value and maximizing it is everything,
26:34
Speaker 2: okay everything. If you're in a single pick pool where
26:37
Speaker 2: it's just you know, even a big buying or like
26:40
Speaker 2: with your friends or whatever, then maximizing future value as
26:43
Speaker 2: secondary and it makes your pick a lot different in
26:47
Speaker 2: week one. So let's take a look at some of
26:50
Speaker 2: these and let's let's see how you kind of like
26:52
Speaker 2: screw around with this map here. So and we'll take
26:56
Speaker 2: a look. We're gonna just for fun, we're going to
27:00
Speaker 2: look at I will look at both single pick and
27:02
Speaker 2: double picks. So here's Philadelphia. Philadelphia, they're ev again. That's
27:08
Speaker 2: that's what we're looking at, is one p. Fifteen. We've
27:11
Speaker 2: already factored in their win ons. We've already factored in
27:13
Speaker 2: that there at home, we've already factored in that Dallas
27:17
Speaker 2: had a trade. We already factored in that it's weather.
27:19
Speaker 2: We always factored in that we don't like number two.
27:22
Speaker 2: We'll factored in that it was a division game. Don't
27:25
Speaker 2: let all of this nonsense that you hear in content
27:29
Speaker 2: sway you from any of that. Don't say that, well,
27:32
Speaker 2: I know they're a ten point favorite, but it's division game. Okay,
27:36
Speaker 2: you know what that means. They're a ten point favorite.
27:38
Speaker 2: I know they're a ten point favorite, but this coach
27:41
Speaker 2: is seventeen and thirteen as an underdog on Thursdays during
27:46
Speaker 2: a hailstorm. You know what I mean? Just accept the
27:49
Speaker 2: numbers aren't what they are. Philadelphia is EV one point
27:53
Speaker 2: one five. If you don't believe that, then you can
27:55
Speaker 2: go change the win percentage or the ownership of percentage
27:58
Speaker 2: and kind of deal with that. So, if you were
28:01
Speaker 2: just gonna worry about EV, take your fifteen percent of
28:03
Speaker 2: your thousand dollars entry feed, you win one hundred fifty
28:06
Speaker 2: dollars that way. However, as you might imagine, okay, Philadelphia,
28:12
Speaker 2: and you can look at this from what you might
28:15
Speaker 2: call it from like your color perspective, like they're green
28:19
Speaker 2: so many times this season. Okay, So they are minus
28:24
Speaker 2: seven against the Giants, minus ten against the Giants again
28:27
Speaker 2: against the Judge, minus seven against Chicago, where else we
28:32
Speaker 2: gotta we gotta fix this a little bit so it
28:35
Speaker 2: fads a little bit better, and then minus ten against Vegas. Okay,
28:43
Speaker 2: So there's plenty of opportunities to play them in the future.
28:47
Speaker 2: And more to the point, you look at say week fifteen,
28:50
Speaker 2: they are three points bigger favorite than the next one,
28:55
Speaker 2: and that's worth something. Okay, Like in week thirteen, they
28:58
Speaker 2: are the top team again by only by one point,
29:01
Speaker 2: but that's gonna change week eight. Will take a look
29:05
Speaker 2: at week eight, Week eight, Okay, there they're the top
29:07
Speaker 2: team by three points, okay, as opposed to this week
29:11
Speaker 2: they're only the top team by maybe one point or
29:14
Speaker 2: minus to be ninety five or three eighty. So so
29:18
Speaker 2: Philadelphia like for me, like this week, I mean, I
29:23
Speaker 2: can't imagine a single pool structure where I would play them. Okay,
29:29
Speaker 2: their future value is just so big throughout the course
29:33
Speaker 2: of the year. It's not even just one week that
29:36
Speaker 2: there's just no reason to take the fifteen cents. Okay,
29:40
Speaker 2: you'd rather just hold them, push them back, and then
29:44
Speaker 2: one week hopefully you're still in later and when that
29:47
Speaker 2: fifteen cents is gonna be not worth fifteen, you know,
29:50
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty dollars or whatever, but it's gonna
29:53
Speaker 2: be worth like eight seventy thousand, Like, that's when you
29:55
Speaker 2: want to want to play them. So Philadelphia to me,
29:58
Speaker 2: is not particularly relevant this week at all. Okay, Okay,
30:04
Speaker 2: Denver they're next. They're at one point zero six again,
30:09
Speaker 2: ev is fine, Okay, they're they're you make a little
30:12
Speaker 2: bit of money. But you have to then just take
30:15
Speaker 2: a look and see what what else is up right?
30:18
Speaker 2: So where else might you be able to use Denver? Well, here,
30:22
Speaker 2: week six they're playable, Week seven, they're playable. I'd like
30:29
Speaker 2: to just look at thet the colors here. Week eight
30:33
Speaker 2: not as much, week nine not as much. But week
30:37
Speaker 2: ten they're the top option on the board, you know,
30:42
Speaker 2: so and even the week sixteen, which you certainly should
30:44
Speaker 2: think about, they're they're they're an option there as well.
30:48
Speaker 2: So Denver definitely is better than Philly. But but for Denver,
30:57
Speaker 2: I think that they're a team I'm probably only use
31:01
Speaker 2: in single pick pools. Okay. I think their value later
31:06
Speaker 2: in the season is just too big. Okay, And not
31:10
Speaker 2: only that's not just that they you know there, it's
31:14
Speaker 2: not even that that it's the double pick weeks that
31:17
Speaker 2: you need them, but I'd like to get rid of
31:20
Speaker 2: them in other weeks so to again push those teams
31:24
Speaker 2: that are really relevant weeks eleven, twelve, thirteen, fourteen to
31:27
Speaker 2: fifteen out there. So I think with a team like
31:30
Speaker 2: Denver again, it's gonna be a depend on your pool week.
31:33
Speaker 2: Like for me, I think that I don't know, I
31:37
Speaker 2: think that if you played any of these big splash pools.
31:41
Speaker 2: I mean, for me, I'll tell you what my exposure
31:43
Speaker 2: is gonna be. I'm gonna have very little Denver, Okay,
31:47
Speaker 2: in in the pools where you need to pick. Think
31:51
Speaker 2: about this, if you have to go through doubles weeks
31:53
Speaker 2: eleven through eighteen, that's what eight sixteen, that's twenty six teams.
32:00
Speaker 2: You know what kind of awfulness you have to play
32:03
Speaker 2: to play twenty six teams. I mean, I'm not in
32:05
Speaker 2: some big rush to use a team like Denver, okay,
32:09
Speaker 2: when I can use them coming up. On the other hand,
32:15
Speaker 2: let's take a look at Arizona. Arizona, they're even is
32:20
Speaker 2: a little bit worse. So okay, you win a few
32:22
Speaker 2: dollars less or whatever. When you look at their viability
32:26
Speaker 2: in the future, it's not quite as good. Right. Where
32:30
Speaker 2: do you even see Arizona as a seven point favorite
32:33
Speaker 2: at all this year? I mean not that much at all.
32:37
Speaker 2: I mean you see them week two at four and
32:40
Speaker 2: a half, Week five at five and a half, fourth best.
32:48
Speaker 2: But I mean aside from that, yeah, we're gonna have
32:50
Speaker 2: to fix this. So this scrolls a little bit better. Again,
32:55
Speaker 2: the tool is okay, we have to definitely clean that up.
33:00
Speaker 2: But even going out into week eighteen, where are you
33:02
Speaker 2: going to use Arizona? So this is like a really
33:06
Speaker 2: really nice combination of good enough right ev in week one,
33:11
Speaker 2: and while they have some viability later, it's really very minimal. Okay.
33:18
Speaker 2: So Arizona, as far as I'm concerned, relative to at
33:22
Speaker 2: least the teams that we you know, taken a look
33:24
Speaker 2: at already, I mean, is clearly the best. Like it
33:27
Speaker 2: would take me many many picks in double pick pools
33:30
Speaker 2: for me to not play Arizona as opposed to say, Philly,
33:33
Speaker 2: you're Denver, okay, going down the list Washington again, same
33:40
Speaker 2: concept they're ev I mean, it is fine, okay, but
33:45
Speaker 2: let's take a look at what their future values, what
33:47
Speaker 2: does their their path look like? Well, Week three, very
33:51
Speaker 2: very strong, seven and a half point favorite. Okay, you
33:56
Speaker 2: have a five and a half point favorite over here,
33:59
Speaker 2: four and a half here, and now you have this
34:01
Speaker 2: really big one where they're a five and a half
34:03
Speaker 2: point favorite. But in week seventeen. Now look at this.
34:06
Speaker 2: If you're playing these double pick pools, okay, you this
34:11
Speaker 2: is what you want, like you want to have a
34:15
Speaker 2: Week seventeen hammer. Okay, that could make you a fortune
34:20
Speaker 2: as opposed that. You know what, here I'll play in
34:23
Speaker 2: the week one, I'll take my two cents on the dollar. Okay.
34:28
Speaker 2: These are the teams that you want to push and
34:30
Speaker 2: push and push back, so Washington again. They go on
34:36
Speaker 2: my note playlist just right along with Philly, Denver, maybe
34:41
Speaker 2: single picks Arizona clearly like strong players. All right, let's
34:46
Speaker 2: just clear. Let's go through a couple of more Cincinnati.
34:51
Speaker 2: You know they're evy as what fair one sentence, basically
34:55
Speaker 2: break even this week. You play this out a million times,
34:57
Speaker 2: you'll basically break even. However, let's take a look at
35:01
Speaker 2: their future value here. So okay, so next week, Week
35:03
Speaker 2: two sort of playable, right, so week eight, I don't
35:10
Speaker 2: want to give everything away this week, but you know,
35:13
Speaker 2: let's let's get into it. So week eight, A lot
35:16
Speaker 2: of people would look at Week eight and you would think, Okay,
35:23
Speaker 2: they're they're You probably want to save them for week
35:25
Speaker 2: eight because you know what, with the exception of Philly,
35:29
Speaker 2: who people are probably going to push back, especially in
35:31
Speaker 2: Circa talking about that some other time, Cincinnati looks really
35:35
Speaker 2: really good. The problem here is that because Cincinnati is
35:40
Speaker 2: going to look so good here and people are going
35:42
Speaker 2: probably going to want to save Buffalo and Baltimore, Cincinnati
35:46
Speaker 2: is probably going to be kind of popular, and so
35:49
Speaker 2: as a result, you might not even want to play
35:52
Speaker 2: them in week eight. You might, but you might not.
35:56
Speaker 2: And then in week twelve sort of playable and double
35:58
Speaker 2: So I think the Bengals are are fine, you know
36:02
Speaker 2: what I mean. I think the Bengals, at least to
36:06
Speaker 2: this point. I mean, especially in double pick pools, I
36:10
Speaker 2: think that they're below Arizona, but I definitely think they're
36:15
Speaker 2: above these others Philly, Denver, in Washington. So I think
36:18
Speaker 2: since is is very really strong, let's look at some
36:23
Speaker 2: of these others and we'll get back to Jacksonville in
36:24
Speaker 2: a second case. Now, now we're looking at at negative
36:28
Speaker 2: EV teams, right, so case if you play them this week,
36:32
Speaker 2: you're gonna lose six cents on the dollar. And you
36:34
Speaker 2: know it's even worse, you're gonna want to play Kansas
36:37
Speaker 2: City many times this season. Like look at all the
36:40
Speaker 2: green here, minus nine and a half, minus nine and
36:42
Speaker 2: a half minus seven. This is probably the worst play
36:46
Speaker 2: on the board because it's a combination of bad EV
36:51
Speaker 2: and and plenty of future value. So let's talk about
36:58
Speaker 2: Jacksonville for a few minutes. In my opinion, I don't
37:03
Speaker 2: even I don't even really think it's opinion. Like, in
37:08
Speaker 2: double pick pools, whether they start in week eleven, week twelve,
37:13
Speaker 2: I think Jacksonville is clearly the best play like on
37:19
Speaker 2: the board. Okay, and we'll talk about why in a minute.
37:26
Speaker 2: So Jacksonville in single pick pools, yeah, they're they're fine.
37:29
Speaker 2: Uh maybe, But in double pick pools, where you've got
37:32
Speaker 2: to pick twenty eight teams and you really want to
37:35
Speaker 2: maximize EV in the future, this is the type of
37:39
Speaker 2: team that you have to risk. You see point nine
37:43
Speaker 2: to five. You know what that means. That means that
37:44
Speaker 2: you're gonna lose money I mean, you're almost certain, almost certainly,
37:48
Speaker 2: theoretically you're going to lose money this week. You're you're
37:50
Speaker 2: gonna lose five cents on the dollar, assuming again all
37:53
Speaker 2: these numbers are right. But what you're doing with that
37:55
Speaker 2: five cents is you're investing in something. And what you're
37:59
Speaker 2: int in is all of this Red. Okay. You look
38:03
Speaker 2: at Jacksonville and they are literally like zero future value.
38:10
Speaker 2: You want to squint and maybe week fifteen doubles maybe,
38:18
Speaker 2: I mean, sure, I guess. But aside from that, this
38:22
Speaker 2: is a full red team. Okay. So the idea is
38:27
Speaker 2: that ninety five cents is not great, but if you
38:32
Speaker 2: get away with this, you are you're the strength of
38:36
Speaker 2: your entry is going to be is going to be amazing. Okay,
38:41
Speaker 2: And that's really what this is all about, is is
38:46
Speaker 2: creating strong entries. Now you saw by the way, I
38:49
Speaker 2: don't know if you saw this, but I posted on
38:52
Speaker 2: x ones a few weeks ago, Hey, I signed up
38:55
Speaker 2: for circu just so you know, no chops. Sorry, sorry
38:58
Speaker 2: to advance no chops, And a couple of people thought,
39:00
Speaker 2: you know, said, why why wouldn't you chop? It's not
39:04
Speaker 2: because it's you know, hashtag too rich. It's not hashtag
39:07
Speaker 2: I you know, I don't feel like it. The reason
39:09
Speaker 2: why I don't think I would ever chop in this
39:11
Speaker 2: thing is because the way I play, if I'm alive later,
39:16
Speaker 2: it's gonna be because I have such strong entries that
39:20
Speaker 2: they're gonna be worth so much more than everybody else's.
39:23
Speaker 2: And the problem is that they're not gonna probably the
39:26
Speaker 2: people aren't even gonna realize that my entry is so
39:30
Speaker 2: much stronger, and so I wouldn't get a fair deal anyway,
39:33
Speaker 2: you know. So that's that's why if I, if I
39:35
Speaker 2: make it to the end of these things, it's gonna
39:37
Speaker 2: be because I have all these late night hammers to
39:39
Speaker 2: turn dfs phrase ready to drop on people at the end. Okay,
39:44
Speaker 2: so teams like Jacksonville, you really have to get used
39:49
Speaker 2: to playing. Okay, and will you win a lot? I mean,
39:53
Speaker 2: will you first of all, you lose money this week.
39:54
Speaker 2: In the long run and you're gonna lose your pool,
39:57
Speaker 2: You're gonna lose the entry what forty percent of the time.
40:01
Speaker 2: I mean, I know what, you know. I don't want
40:03
Speaker 2: to get out, nobody wants to get out. But but
40:05
Speaker 2: I had this argument with somebody on one of the
40:08
Speaker 2: podcasts the other day because they I made fun of them.
40:10
Speaker 2: Someone said, you know what, I really want to make
40:12
Speaker 2: a play at the end of the day that makes
40:14
Speaker 2: me sleep at night, that lets me sleep at night.
40:16
Speaker 2: And I just kind of laugh and I'm like, Okay,
40:18
Speaker 2: I guess Survivor's not dead if that's what people are
40:21
Speaker 2: still saying stuff like that. And he pushed back at
40:23
Speaker 2: me a little bit and he's like, no, I mean
40:25
Speaker 2: like there's some some value in that and like having,
40:27
Speaker 2: you know, being comfortable with who you have and this,
40:30
Speaker 2: that and the other thing. Let me tell you what's
40:31
Speaker 2: comfortable to me, like making the right EV decision, Like
40:35
Speaker 2: if I don't make the right EV decision or the
40:38
Speaker 2: right long term decision, that will get me up in
40:41
Speaker 2: the middle of the night, like that will make me
40:43
Speaker 2: lose sleep. Okay, I have no problem, you know, doing
40:46
Speaker 2: what's right and then end up, you know what, you
40:49
Speaker 2: bust out early. You know, it's great that you don't
40:51
Speaker 2: stress as much as everybody else does. But teams like
40:54
Speaker 2: taxon the other ones you have to play, especially in
40:57
Speaker 2: these double pick pools. To that point, I mean, like
41:01
Speaker 2: you could make arguments for in double pig pools for
41:05
Speaker 2: a lot of this bologne, Like, let's take a look
41:08
Speaker 2: even at we want to look at Pittsburgh just for funzies,
41:12
Speaker 2: like Pittsburgh. They are their three point favorite on the road.
41:17
Speaker 2: I know people will go go play them on the road, right,
41:21
Speaker 2: and you're gonna lose twelve cents this week. But now
41:26
Speaker 2: this has getting a little more advanced. There's a lot
41:28
Speaker 2: of red here on the board. Well you know people
41:30
Speaker 2: are gonna say, well maybe not because week six, look
41:33
Speaker 2: at week six leak week six, you probably want to
41:36
Speaker 2: save them because there'll be a six and a half
41:40
Speaker 2: point favorite hashtag off of buy right against Cleveland. But
41:45
Speaker 2: you can't tell you something about what's gona happen with
41:47
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh in week six. Pittsburgh in week six is gonna
41:50
Speaker 2: be like forty percent. Want to know why because people
41:55
Speaker 2: want to save Philly. People are gonna see that Pittsburgh
41:57
Speaker 2: this is their last opportunity to play them and they
42:00
Speaker 2: will get jammed. Okay, so you get rid of them.
42:03
Speaker 2: Now you basically have a whole red screen. Right, So
42:08
Speaker 2: these types of teams like Pittsburgh, New England swort of Okay,
42:15
Speaker 2: you can play this stuff, and if you're playing multiple
42:17
Speaker 2: entries and you're in these double pick pools. You could
42:20
Speaker 2: play some of this nonsense like what about even like
42:24
Speaker 2: I want to get this, you'd be that crazy. But
42:26
Speaker 2: something like that, like you in Vegas as an underdog,
42:29
Speaker 2: you know, teams that are just never gonna play again
42:32
Speaker 2: as part of your portfolio, I like the Jets or
42:34
Speaker 2: somebody like that that teams look totally red that you're
42:38
Speaker 2: never well you're reds, never gonna play again. There are
42:41
Speaker 2: three point lousy underdog at home, and they're gonna win
42:44
Speaker 2: forty percent of the time. So if you play the
42:46
Speaker 2: Jets forty percent of the time, you know what you have.
42:49
Speaker 2: You have a nut entry. Okay. So uh that's a lot, Okay,
42:55
Speaker 2: And that's that's that's definitely a lot to think about.
42:58
Speaker 2: But that's the way you really have to handle the
43:03
Speaker 2: survivor pool business. Okay. You have to figure out where
43:06
Speaker 2: where in the in the tournament you are, Okay, week one?
43:11
Speaker 2: You know, you know, people say, well, you can't win
43:13
Speaker 2: a tournament in week one. You can only lose in
43:15
Speaker 2: week one. Okay, So that's why I don't want to
43:17
Speaker 2: play Jacksonville. Okay. Well, you know, you know, it's a
43:21
Speaker 2: real good way to lose by taking stuff like Philadelphia
43:25
Speaker 2: too early. Okay, because there's plenty of ways to to
43:28
Speaker 2: bleed EV. There's either the aggressive way where you actually
43:31
Speaker 2: have a chance, you know, to to take down the
43:34
Speaker 2: hole cheese, or just survive in advance. Survive in advance,
43:38
Speaker 2: and then you know what happens. You get to week
43:39
Speaker 2: eleven and you're no one left to play and then
43:42
Speaker 2: you complain that somebody you know didn't make a field
43:45
Speaker 2: goal or something. I think I would like to end
43:54
Speaker 2: it right now for this week. We're gonna talk about
43:59
Speaker 2: a lot lot of other stuff as we go on,
44:03
Speaker 2: and I'll listen. I don't know if I'll be able
44:05
Speaker 2: to talk. I'll talk about my entries. I guess when
44:08
Speaker 2: when they're done. But the idea is each week we're
44:12
Speaker 2: gonna go through this process of learning how to balance
44:16
Speaker 2: EV and future value, learning how to use these tools,
44:19
Speaker 2: learning how to use these maps and uh, and just
44:27
Speaker 2: learn something that's pretty much it. I didn't want. I
44:30
Speaker 2: don't want to get into the circum Million stuff yet
44:32
Speaker 2: against the spread stuff, except to say that as bad
44:36
Speaker 2: as people play Survivor, I think people play circum Million's
44:39
Speaker 2: words because people are just so confident, so constraint. I'm
44:45
Speaker 2: beating the spread and not beating the field. But that's
44:47
Speaker 2: that's another story. Okay. So I think I think it's
44:54
Speaker 2: how much is it ninety nine dollars or something for
44:56
Speaker 2: the year it's gonna be it's gonna be five hundred,
45:00
Speaker 2: I think if I, if I do what I want. So,
45:02
Speaker 2: so make sure that that that you get in this
45:04
Speaker 2: year and learn everything you know. Uh, we're gonna talk
45:09
Speaker 2: about March madness. We're going to talk about other kinds
45:12
Speaker 2: of stuff, but but Survivor pool and NFL Survivor is
45:15
Speaker 2: is going to be the main focus. Hopefully this helps. Uh,
45:19
Speaker 2: the discord channel will be open. I will do my
45:21
Speaker 2: best to stay in there. And that's it. Good luck, everybody, h.
46:02
Speaker 3: S mother and speak most moths, mother mons, most and
46:14
Speaker 3: mouth mother and mon sip, sip and sip and speak