Latest / The Crazy Sheet - CFB Handicapping / Episode 32: Week 1 CFB Betting. Preview

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Episode 32: Week 1 CFB Betting. Preview · The Crazy Sheet - CFB Handicapping

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Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, fans of all ages. It's your
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favorite time of the week. You might need to brace yourself and grab a
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cold beverage. Mark and Scott are ready to drop from college football betting knowledge
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on your gass. The boys are back and ready to help you find some
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angles to beat your book, impress your friends, and get you ready to
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enjoy the greatest sport on the planet. So sit back and enjoy, because
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we're damn happy to have you. Welcome to the Crazy Sheet, Ladies and
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gentlemen, boys and girls at your favorite time a week. You download the
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crazy shits, you get you something to drink, and go for a walk
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to take your dogs up. I don't even give a damn. I'm Mark
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and I'm here in the podcasting studio and Scotty is obviously on the road by
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that background. How are you, brother? And I'm good shot now love
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shot. You know what it is. It was a good time tonight,
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had a nice little dinner, ready to talk about some gambling ice. So
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damn happy that we started college football like for real. Last weekend was just
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enough to really get me miserable. I want to talk about just a moment
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about Ohio. Oh my god, if Rourke doesn't get hurt, we not
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only cover that number, they both raced their ass. They found them.
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I'm telling you that is the problem with gambling early in the season. You
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can't be too much early, get in love with the game too much.
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Because I knew this roster has got a chance to win this game, They're
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going to be fired up. Boon second series of the game, we get
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an injury, alters the game. You can't fall in love too much with
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a game early in the season, jeopardize your bank roll. I was as
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confident I was gonna win that game as anything I did all weekend lost it.
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Didn't bet enough on Notre Dame, who I knew was going to be
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a good football team. Don't fall in love with the trust your research,
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do it right, be disciplined. This is a marathon, not a sprint.
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Don't risk your bank roll. Last week was a prime example of that.
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We read it right, lost the bet. I mean, damn,
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we almost covered the bed and didn't have a quarterback for a cot for three
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and a half quarters. That is gambling in a nutshell, And as we
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talk about a podcast, that's what you gotta do don't risk it, don't
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get greedy, don't if we have a bad week or you have a bad
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week, don't chase it. Drunk pent Poet Eastern on Saturday Night, Live
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to Fight Another Day. That is what I That was the lesson from last
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Saturday. Your research can be right, you can pick it right. It's
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why they call it gambling. You know, it is what it is.
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I mean, it just is what it is. Notre Dame looked as good
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as I thought they were gonna. Look. Yeah, those why fevers in
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that quarterback are gonna be good. Let's always bet against Navy week one.
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Holy smokes? How and all my research did I miss that they are that
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bad week one and can't score? I totally did, everybody on this podcast
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of disservice missing that trend. But last week was a lot of fun sc
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It's gonna be a price. I will tell you. My initial gut research
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told me to take and Jose to cover that number. Taught myself out of
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it with the hype and everything. Just that was a mistake. Learned a
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lot about about teams last week, Learned a lot about myself. Trust your
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gut, do what you do. If I trust my gut. I lose
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one game last week, one bat last week we went two and three as
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a cast, I think it is I think legitimately my gut was a boor
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in one week, and that tells me that my research is right. And
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guess what we're getting ready to pound that ass to Saturday. Oh goodness,
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well that was it two and three. Last week we had two and one
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or one and two, and then we had the team totals. We recommended
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you take on those in the Notre Dame game, in the USC game.
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We're probably the only podcast in America that opened up talking about the Ohio game
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last week, but that's what we do around here. I was impressed with
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the Hawaii I thought Timmy Chang did a good job. I fandy, I'm
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interested, And of course overreaction already happened. The line crashes from around seven
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down to three three and a half. In the Stanford game this week,
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Stanford's not going to be very good. They've got to travel across that's also
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a short week. We did address that because they're playing on Friday night.
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But yeah, last week was fun. Learned a few things, picked a
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few things up from there. As we get ready for this. We're on
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the eve of college football season. It's always the most exciting. You know,
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everybody gets excited about the Thursday Friday of the National Championship for the March
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madness, and I get it, it's a lot of fun. But this
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Thursday has been like Holy Grail Day for me for twenty years now. I
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barely can work on these days, and I'm excited. We've got a great
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slate of D one games lined up for Thursday night. We don't have a
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ton of marquee games for this weekend, but there's some really good games and
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there's a lot of interesting storylines. That being said, Scott, I'm ready
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to dive in. I know you are too. But the one thing I
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will say to folks and kind of know what Scott's doing, and don't be
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scared to maybe better half a unit on some of these games. Keep in
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mind, these lines have been out there for two months and they've been beaten
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up pretty good, and so rarely are you sneaking one by the goalie on
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this spot here. And so Mark I told I told all my friends last
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week that at the end of the day, Vegas is doing the same thing
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that we're doing, and they're running off of numbers. How well do you
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trust your research is what you need to gamble. There are values out there,
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whether I have found them, whether you've found them, whether some listener
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has found them, or whether Vegas has found there are values out there every
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week. It's happened the first two weeks of the season. Every week.
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If you really dive in and you trust yourself and you trust your research,
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don't be scared a better but don't risk your bankroll. To me, that
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is the wisdom of gambling. But there's money to be one the first two
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weeks. I agree Vegas Week three and four is gonna get down in and
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man, it gets a whole lot month harder to win until we get a
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body of work to start gambling on teams. That's the reason October is the
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best number for the books. And then the injuries and everything and schedules start
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rolling in and all of those things, and you know, then you start
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figuring and who teams are. It's not just on the number. Don't extend
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yourself as my only advice to everybody. Oh that's enough parenting, brother,
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Let's talk about some college football. Let's talk about Thursday night. There's four
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games Thursday night. The one that's getting the most type probably of all,
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is going to be the Florida Utah game, where they're gonna be traveling.
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Florida's traveling up to Rice Echoes to play in this one. It was announced
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today that cam Rising is not gonna start, is most likely out for the
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game. Line crashed a little bit more. That line was at ten and
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a half earlier this summer. The total crashed along with it. I don't
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know what you're gonna get from these two teams. I don't think Florida is
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that good. I think there's gonna be a lot of ground and pound.
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I think Kyle Whittingham is one of the best coaches in the country. You're
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gonna be playing one of the highest stadiums. I would lean Utah in the
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win in that one. I don't know that I would take them to cover
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the points. But their second string quarterbacks been playing all summer. This isn't
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something that happened on Tuesday, all right, so they know what's coming here.
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They're prepared to go into this. We didn't think cam Rising was gonna
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play. That's why we don't have a Utah future for them to win the
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Conference. So that's the big news that you've got on Thursday night. All
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that being said, Scott, why don't we get to the sexiest game that
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we want to play? North Carolina State will be traveling to stores to play
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Yukon. Line here is at fourteen fourteen and a half is what you're seeing
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over unders forty six and a half. I'm excited about NC State. I
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think this is a sleeper team in the ACC. I'm really looking forward to
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three weeks from two or three weeks from now when they play Notre Dame.
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Yukon finished six and seven, got that backdoor bull bid that they got into
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last year, didn't in so well, but a much improved Yukon team over
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what we've seen in the past. But I'm excited Brendan Armstrong, Robert and
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Ni pairing backup since the last time when they were together at Virginia. I
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also think Dave Clawson's one of the best coaches in the ACC. Does a
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good job really developing his defense and really developing his players better than the most
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because he's not getting all the five star kids in there. With the over
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under being as low as forty six and a half. NC State minus fourteen
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and a half. This could be a little bit of a fight in a
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phone booth. I think Brendan Armstrong is gonna go off. Brother. I
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like NC State in this spot. I love them in the spot kind of
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reasons. I like them. I just think the talent levels not even closed.
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I mean, at the end of the day, you take out Michigan
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and State and Penn State out of the Big ten, and all the talent
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lies in the ACC in the SEC that's borne out by by the NFL Draft
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every year. And NC State is a talented football team. Guys on that
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roster are talented, even though they're guys you you don't recognize and you don't
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know their name. But here, here is the stats I want to give
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you. So last let just the last couple of years with Yukon. They
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played Syracuse at stores forty eight fourteen last year. Somebody really think this football
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team isn't better? Oh, everybody's in love. But oh they got all
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these starts back. I think Yukon's got seventeen starters back, bulk of their
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offensive and defensive lines. They're going to be better. Oh it's great,
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man, Okay, all right, but this is a significantly better football team
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coming into stores. They're going to pound those guys. Let's look at a
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couple of other Power of five teams and went to Michigan whilst fifteen nine and
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nothing played at NC State last years forty one. I think this NC State
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team this year is better than last year. All fields worth of three four
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points not in C State, nearly enough points. They're gonna beat the dog
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shit out of these guys. Cash your check, Take this to the house.
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This is easy. My favorite parts you're gonna get to hear when you
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tune this game into bar night is the transfer quarterbacks name from Yukon, Joseph
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Fagnano. I mean, if this guy didn't fall off the Sopranos box set,
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I don't know what did. I'm looking forward to the announcer's rolling this
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dude out a couple of times. I want some big plays out of him,
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or a couple of sacks, just so I can get excited cheering about
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that. Oh, Scott, that's the first game on the rotation sheet.
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I am going to surprise some folks. We're gonna go straight to the next
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game. I know you all thought you wanted. If you've got a rotation
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sheet. Why don't you go ahead and slide down to game one seventy and
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that would be Rutgers at home laying six and a half to Northwestern. Scotty,
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Please tell me why we're investing after tax dollars in this game. Well,
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first off, I think that Rutgers is going to be a better football
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team. Second off, I think Northwestern maybe one of the worst teams in
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the country. And there is no doubt when their coach this comes out and
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says, oh, they've responded, well, they've done all this in the
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media pounds them about why they responded, Well, they've been hazing people,
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they've been I'm like, this is why they're gonna suck, donkey balls.
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I think this team's gonna suck. I think it's where they are. I
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think, candidly, I think I think a lot that there wasn't a revolt
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they fired the winning his coach in their program from the guys who aren't pussies.
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Candidly, it shocks me. I mean, it just stuns me.
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You can't win without being to fin I understand there are people out there that
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think you know how you can play football and you could be a nice cat.
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Let me tell you something. Football ain't nice, And let me tell
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locker rooms get ugly, you get haste. Just let me share your bloody
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details. You better be a man to walk in there. You better be
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able to handle anything. When you walk into a locker room with one hundred
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dudes, clearly they can't handle it. I'm out on this football team.
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I think reg Ciano's football team is gonna be better. I don't like anything
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that's going on at Northwestern. I don't think they're talented. I don't think
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they're good, and I think they lost their best player on defense. Everybody
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keeps pointing that they've got starters back on defense. They lost their best player,
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a guy who had what two hundred tackles last year. Yep, he's
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gone. You know what, I'll take Rutgers. They're gonna pound the ship
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out of these dudes. Rutgers minus six and a half. That's a gross
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play. I'm just putting it out there for you and, oh, by
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the way, to get used to it, because there's a few more that
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are coming your way. Let's go to the games plays get paid on gross
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plays. Let's go to a game. Saturday night, seven thirty pm.
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We played in Charlotte, North Carolina and South Carolina. The battles for the
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Carolinas North Carolina current over under is sixty four and a half. South Carolinas
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plus two and a half. This is an interesting game. You got a
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lot of more key names in this one. Obviously, Phil long Ago,
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the offensive coordinator in North Carolina, has left. He's been replaced by Rhet
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Lache. Jane Chiswick is the official defensive coordinator as far as I know now
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in North Carolina. And obviously with North Carolina, you've got Drake May is
15:01
the quarterback of choice that's there, and he's incredible, and it's actually it's
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gonna be really sad that Drake May's probably gonna not you know, he won't
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win a Heisman, he may not win he's not gonna win the conference,
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and he'll probably go just about five hundred this year and then he may end
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up being like a top five draft pick. But they can fling it.
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They're gonna go South Carolina. On the other hand, baber Rattler, what's
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going on with this team? I'm gonna go. I think you and I
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are on the same page with this one. But it's kind of I like
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the underdog, and I like the under I don't think North Carolina's gonna run
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and move the ball as fast as they did last year. I think Longo's
15:37
unique in that way. Longo likes to run the ball too, Lasha,
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I'm not sure what we're gonna get, but I from the reports i've read,
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the tempo is gonna be slowed down a tick. Plus, you don't
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have any game breaking wide receivers on this team anymore North Carolina, so you're
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breaking in a lot of skill level talent South Carolina. Last year, after
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they simplified the roster for Rattler, they came around, they won some games.
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This is a team that beat Clemson last year, and so I think
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this team comes in with the big chip on their shoulders. I mean,
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Rattler at one point was a Heisman hopeful and was one of the top recruits
16:10
in the country, and so I think he's got a lot to prove.
16:12
But they've also got a solid one two punch running back attack, and I
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think that and they don't run that fast, and they can grind, and
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they can grind, and they can grind, and so I like what's going
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on there. And the other thing I like is their kicker last year was
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four for four in completions and had two touchdown passes and bomber ball. You
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gotta love you some special teams, baby. I like the under here and
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I like plus two and a half of the South Carolina game. Cocks.
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Yeah, you said lastly you're coming about and it looks it's easy to get
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confused Lindsay's Chip Auburn coordinator. Let's let's face it. Lastly at at smooth
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Chip Lindsay. But the point remains the same. They're gonna run slower than
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they did with long ago. Everything remains the same. I agree with you.
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I think that is that I think the biggest play here is under sixty
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four and a half. Now I think SC's gonna win the game. I
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think here's what I like about South Carolina first in winning the football game.
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When a coach every time gets interviewed and all he talks about and look,
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I think over the last two years I made a pretty clear point that I
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am not as Spencer Rattler fan. As a whole. All Beamer has done
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is talk about how good of a player, how good of a leader he's
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been. Every time he talks about somebody on the team. He always goes
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back to Rattler, kids do grow up. I mean, this kid got
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hit in the full linelight as what a seventeen year old kid when he was
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number one player in the country. He said, people kissing his ass since
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he was a fifteen year old kid. And then he really faced adversity as
18:07
a at Oklahoma, and then he faced it again last year, and then
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I think responded really well, you know, it's not above a twenty year
18:18
old kid to like realize, you know, I got to grow up and
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be a good player, and I got to do things different, and I
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everything Beamer has done in the off season says that's what's happening. And I
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think that's a big part of this ball game. I really really do.
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And I think this is a improving football team. I think Beamer's got these
18:44
kids believing. Yes, they had a lot of kids transfer out. We've
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all talked about the transfer portal on this podcast. How many kids they cut
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loose and how many left on their own, how many are leaving because they
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got rid of you know, that's less of a concern for me than it
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used to be. And I think that rattlers stepping forward is a big deal
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because it's clear that the coaching staff leaves this kids mature and he's a different
19:15
baker. He's obviously playing against a very good quarterback who may maybe the first
19:21
quarterback in the draft. I mean, he's a legit player, and I
19:26
think I saw mel Kaper's board today and I think hit him fourth overall.
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But at the end of the day, these are two good quarterbacks going at
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it. Where are the rosters? Where's this going to come into play?
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At the end of the day, I like this SEC, this SEC roster
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at SC. I think they're both good football teams. But I really love
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the under in this play. I think South Carolina is going to win the
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game, and if they don't, it's going to be really close. Is
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why I like the point total. Man, I love this under on both
20:02
holds. You looked the last couple of you looked last year, they only
20:07
went over sixty four and a half Tennessee Arkansas, Bandy and Charlotte for SC,
20:15
and then U and C only went over on Affy Duke Notre Dame Family.
20:22
It is such a different schedule, and there was one other game that
20:27
North Carolina went over. But at the end of the day. We're talking
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twenty four games and they only went over nine times this number. You've got
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an offensive coordinator who's gonna run slower than long ago. You've got a lot
20:45
of losses on that. On that South Carolina team, I don't necessarily know
20:51
they're going to force the pace. I think sixty four and a half is
20:55
a sure bet. I think the smart gambling play on a number is South
21:03
Carolina plus the points. Like it, South Carolina plus the points, taking
21:07
the SEC to dominate the AEC one more time, Scotty, let's get to
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a Midwestern bang them around type game. Toledo going to Champaign Illinois minus nine
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and a half. This line was at ten. It's come down over under
21:22
total. Here's at forty six. You got the Bert Bielima experience getting better
21:27
and better, though it seems wonder if they didn't peak last year. This
21:32
is gonna be an interesting team that Toledo's one of the most experienced teams coming
21:34
back in the MAC. Their favored to win the MAC. These teams have
21:38
struggled to step up in conference when they've gone against Power five teams, especially
21:42
on the road. Illinois loses a tremendous amount of talent to the draft.
21:48
They lose a lot of players in the secondary, some up front on the
21:51
defense, and so it's gonna be interesting and the quarterback play is going to
21:55
be different there, Scotty, are we rolling with the elina or are we
21:59
taking the rockets? The numbers tell you that this is worth an upset play
22:07
of the week. I'm gonna play this upset play of the week. It's
22:11
simply because it's as simply because of the numbers. I mean, you look
22:15
at the odds. When you're getting plus nine and a half, I mean
22:19
I've seen it up to plus three fifty at different books. You gotta take
22:26
that. I mean at the end of the day, because I can see
22:29
them winning this game. And here's why I can see it. And make
22:32
no mistake that Illinois's a good football team. But you got a new quarterback
22:37
transferring in. This offense was abysmal with a good quarterback who transferred in last
22:44
year. Is it going to be the same way again? They still have
22:48
very good defensive line played, and though they lost two very good defensive linemen.
22:53
Look, they got an All American at defensive end at Illinois. But
22:57
you can't lose those dvs and expect that defensive backfield to play the same way.
23:04
You really can't, because they lost. They lost three good ones.
23:07
They lose one good one. I mean everybody knows, you know, I
23:11
mean, they had a Thorpe Award winner. Everybody knows they lost a good
23:17
DV. They lost three of them, and I think that is where the
23:21
difference in this game is. Toledo's got a lot of talent back, a
23:25
lot of players back. They're going to spread the football around. I think
23:29
they are going to figure out how to score enough points. Sixteen starters back.
23:36
This is a good football team, and I think we just can't look
23:41
past that. But they are seven and ten against the Big ten straight up,
23:48
I mean against the spread since nineteen ninety two. So you're like,
23:55
the difference is is I like this. I like this comparison. Told has
24:00
been playing some really good Big ten teams. I think this isn't average Big
24:06
ten teams. Yeah, I agree with you. I think Toledo's got a
24:08
shot. I mean, keep in mind, this is their super Bowl and
24:11
so they're coming out with everything, and you know, Illinois has been preparing
24:15
for this game. But this is Toledo's Super Bowl to get the season started.
24:22
I mean, what a jolt it would be for a program like this.
24:25
And you're gonna laugh when I tell you this. I don't know that
24:27
there's a look ahead spot here, but I am looking to next week when
24:30
Illinois has to travel to Lawrence to play Kansas. Kansas offensive explosive. So
24:37
two weeks in a row, we're gonna find out how Illinois can handle tempo
24:41
because it's gonna be coming at them hard and it's gonna be coming up fast,
24:45
and so I'm looking forward to it. Toledo Rockets plus nine and a
24:48
half. Don't be scared to get the hook if you can find it out
24:51
there. I think that's a good bet. Scotty. Next two bets I'm
24:55
in a half are both gonna be in the state of Texas. One's gonna
24:57
be in College Station, the other one's gonna be in Austin. Texas is
25:00
hosting Rice. Laying thirty five points in this game. I think this is
25:06
a lot of points. But I also think this Texas team is for real.
25:10
We took Texas to win the Big twelve at plus one ten plus one
25:14
oh five in the summer. If you listen to us back then. I
25:15
think this offense is explosive on levels in a sense that where you're gonna have
25:21
Quinn Eures. Now you've start hearing the rumors that arch Manny's gonna play the
25:26
backup quarterback, the big fella. He looked electric in the spring game in
25:30
front of what I've read. He's had good talent JT. Daniels. And
25:33
you're gonna hear this on Saturday if you haven't read it already. He's about
25:37
to play Texas for the third time on his third different roster. And what's
25:41
comical is he also played at Georgia, so there's one team he played on
25:45
that he didn't play Texas, So this will be his fourth college roster that
25:49
he's been on. He played him at USC, he played him when he
25:52
was at West Virginia, and he played him here. He's never scored more
25:56
than eighteen points in a game. I don't think they do here. I
26:00
think Texas runs away with this one. Rice has got a lot of true
26:03
freshmen that they're gonna be starting here and a lot of red shirt freshman.
26:07
This team is young. They might win some games when you get into conference
26:11
play, but I don't like it, but I like minus thirty five,
26:14
but I like the first half, and I'm gonna play it all the way
26:15
up to minus twenty four and maybe a team total on these because I think
26:19
Texas is going to lay the wood to the owls. Banks is gonna pound
26:26
the shit out of these guys. Don't feel bad about laying a big number
26:29
early. They got Bama waiting. They need to get out to a good
26:33
start, and they've gotten off to good starts before. Last last fifteen games
26:41
against Rice, Texas is ten four and one against the spread last two they
26:47
laid twenty six last year one fifty eight bullet. Two years ago laid thirty
26:52
two, one forty eight thirteen. It's a significantly better football team than both
26:59
of those convinced Rice is better. They're gonna beat the shit out of these
27:03
guys. They're gonna beating as bad as they want to. The only way
27:06
they don't cover is it Sark doesn't want to cover. They're gonna pound the
27:10
ship out of these guys. Uh. Moving on to the next game.
27:12
We've got at College Station six pm that night. New Mexico Lobos are going
27:18
to be traveling into play this team. Maybe I'm the only one, but
27:22
I am on the hype wagon for the Aggies. I am so interested to
27:27
see what Bobby Petrino is gonna put on the field and how the dynamic between
27:32
him and Jimbo Fisher is gonna work. I'm actually gonna try to not drink
27:34
too much before this game because I want to see how they interact with each
27:37
other. What's gonna go on? This new Mexico team is not good.
27:45
You know they brought in the guy. Yeah, they and so I don't
27:48
have you know last year they ran that crazy triple option run every play offense.
27:53
I'm not I've you know, read through in the notes on I don't
27:56
like anything you're getting into Mexico from this team. This ain't in team I
28:00
think has the chance to be really explosive. But defensively, I think this
28:03
team is going to be solid as a rock. I think their front seven
28:07
is as good as it's been in the last decade. The players that had
28:11
lost left I thought it was interesting the other day I read all the players
28:15
that left A and M or I think like the four and five stars have
28:18
actually when they went to their other team, they're not on their other teams
28:21
anymore either, Like Denver Harris, he's not with LSU. Speaking of weird,
28:25
did you see Eric Gilbert got arrested yesterday. No. Yeah, he's
28:30
trying to get eligible to play for Nebraska and he was picked up and arrested
28:37
for robbing a vape and tobacco store with a bunch of Delta eight cigarettes and
28:42
gummies on his way at the door, and they charged him for like one
28:45
thousand, eight hundred dollars and theft. Is that the most fucked up dude
28:49
ever? Mean, that guy was the number one time recruit in the country,
28:52
went to LSU, then got his head n you know, trans Georgia,
28:57
y'all transfers to Georgia. Never could get on the field because he couldn't
29:02
get his head right. And here he is getting a second chance at Nebraska
29:04
and now he's probably in custody Lincoln, Nebraska at this point. Anyway.
29:10
Side note, but I like A and M here. I like AM to
29:14
cover minus twenty one. I think they're gonna come out play with tempo.
29:17
I think they're probably gonna post pretty close to a shutout. New Mexico does
29:21
not have the explosive offense. It's gonna take to break the top off of
29:25
it or put together a long drive. And so I really like A and
29:29
M. Here, I'm gonna lay minus the I'm gonna lay up to minus
29:32
twenty one in this one. And I think A and M names their number.
29:34
I think this one could easily be a fifty six to seven, fifty
29:38
six to bullet type deal. They've got Miami on deck next week. I
29:42
wouldn't be surprised if you get some Wegman and you get some Max Johnson playing
29:47
just to get him some reps in there. I don't know that they go
29:49
all out, but I think from a defensive standpoint, you see a great
29:52
effort, and I think Aggie's actually get I think they're blowing and going in
29:56
this one from Get. Yeah, I don't disagree at all. I mean,
30:03
dude, am I mean this That New Mexico is a really tough job.
30:12
I mean it is a tough job, and they just don't get very
30:18
much talent from anywhere, and you are facing a team that has got as
30:26
much talent as anybody in the country. Now, whether there's well coached,
30:33
is anybody in the country is the difference. I think this is a team
30:37
that's going to come out and get ask these guys. Like you said,
30:41
they've had an offensive coordinator change, bringing in the interim coach from UAB last
30:48
year to coach this offense. This just looks like boat racy. I don't
30:53
know how it am not going to cover twenty one in this If you're Jim
31:00
Fisher, you have to cover twenty one in the first He doesn't matter whether
31:03
you whether you cover this number. You've got to boat race these dudes or
31:11
it is. I mean, hell, he loses the fan base week one,
31:17
and that's the reason I like this beast. They gotta come out house,
31:22
and they've certainly got the ability to do it. There is no doubt
31:26
he wants to put gas hand on these guys. I think, no mistake.
31:30
He fits fourth and one at the forty vain funk. They're going for
31:36
it. I mean, I think they've gassed hand these dudes. I think
31:40
this is thirty five nothing at halftime. You may want to lay some money
31:47
on them again on that total, because I think they may win the total.
31:52
But I think the first half is a gift. Oh here we go,
31:56
Here we go, here we go. I'm excited, all right,
31:57
next game, Scott, He's got to be one of your favorites. You
32:00
came into the conversation ready to talk to me about this one, the Fun
32:05
Belt American matchup. South Alabama will be traveling down the road to New Orleans
32:10
to play Tulane. This line now has shrunk to minus six and a half
32:15
Tulane. You've seen some sevens. You might see another seven South and the
32:21
over under. Here's at fifty one and a half. Tulane coming off of
32:23
the Cotton Bowl win over USC. Michael Pratt, the quarterback playing out of
32:30
his mind. I actually thought he might transfer at the end of last season
32:35
and try to get to a Group of five job or a Power five job.
32:37
But he didn't. He stayed there. South Alabama on the flip side,
32:42
and they did lose some talent. Tulane did to the They lost some
32:45
to the draft anger graduation. South Alabama, on the other side, has
32:49
more returning starts in plays than anybody else in the Sun Belt. They've got
32:52
more returners back than most teams in the country. Major Apple Whites down there.
32:58
This was a solid team last year and I've actually got them picked to
33:00
win the Sun Belt. Scotty, are we taking two lane about a six
33:05
and a half. You're almost Alma Mater. Are we going with the Jaguars
33:08
at plus seven? Oh? Hell no, We're taking South Alabama, Baby
33:12
Kane. Well Mac, look, you talked about it. Bradley was really
33:15
good at quarterback for them last year. And I made a mistake. I
33:20
understold these guys early in the season, did in the second half gambling.
33:23
But Buddy Ladamian Webb thousand yard rusher, back, good player. People don't
33:30
relye. He's a power five guy. He's the Mississippi State guy already through
33:34
lead back to Mississippi State. As somebody said listening to this podcast, Webb
33:38
is a guy who and then there was the change to Mike Leachs and you
33:43
know it's you get guys floating around, they don't fit systems and things like
33:47
that. I like Webb. He's a good player, thousand yard rusher.
33:52
Bradley was outstanding at quarterback. I disliked everything about this football team. You
33:58
know, I love Willie Fritz. Anybody that knows me as much as I,
34:05
you know, love Mississippi State. I wanted to hire Willie Fritz when
34:08
we hired Mike leach I think I think he's a good football coach. I
34:13
think he's a great fit for the Bulldogs. Love him. It's not any
34:16
of that. I think South Alabama was a really really good football team and
34:22
underrated last year, and I think they have everybody back. Love this football
34:28
team. This is too many points. They're a live dog. I am
34:31
telling you if you want some value and you want fifty bucks, and you
34:37
just take South Alabama, take Toledo. Bets you fifty bucks, get you
34:45
an underdog parlay, and get you some fun on because you can bet your
34:49
ass that I'm doing that Saturday morning. That's a big number. I'll calculate
34:52
it here in a minute. Oh man, I like it. South Alabama
34:57
plus seven come in here against two Lane. I haven't looked at the betting
35:00
splits yet, but I'm gonna guess two Lane is gonna get all the public
35:02
money, especially after their winning. I think this is gonna be a great
35:06
game. They beat South Carolina. I'm telling me that number will be seven
35:09
at kickoff on Saturday. I won't be because nobody's studying numbers right now.
35:15
They beat USC in a freaking bowl game. Everybody watched it. It was
35:20
an exciting game as great. Nobody thinks South Alabama's worth of damn and they're
35:24
the exact same football team. They all had the exact same town. And
35:30
I really like what they've got coming back. I think South Alabama is I
35:35
think they're ten win football team. Oh yeah, I do too. They
35:38
win this game here, and I easily think that they could. They may
35:43
make to they may be that extra team, they could, But I think
35:46
they win this game here, They've got a decent chance of going undefeated.
35:50
Yeah, if you're looking at this game, I just pulled the betting splits.
35:52
Eighty eight percent of the bets, eighty three percent of the money's on
35:55
two lane seven, twelve percent of the bets, and seventeen percent of the
36:00
money's on South Alabama. I think South Alabama will take some money before game
36:04
time, but all the public money is going to be on there. If
36:06
they get more public money and you see that line move to seven and we
36:08
get a reverse line move, but I'll be excited to be on the right
36:12
side of this one. Scotty. Last game, we got Marquee game Sunday
36:16
night. There's a good Sunday slate too, by the way, we got
36:19
two games on it. LSU, LSU Florida State will be playing at Camping
36:27
World Stadium in Orlando. This will be the rematch from last year's game that
36:30
was played in the Superdome that FSU won. The game was a great game
36:35
to start the season. Really sloppy, really sloppy from LSU standpoint. They
36:40
lost their all star defensive end Mason Smith and that when he blew his aclout.
36:45
Ironically, he won't play in this game either for some bullshit in cl
36:49
suspension that he's out for one game, so we'll miss him. But this
36:52
is gonna be a interesting game. Both of these teams come into the season
36:55
with I would tell you conference you know and National Championship heights is where they
37:00
can go with these You're getting a lot of higher on both teams. Both
37:04
teams are returning quarterback play. Both teams are returning offensive line. Defensively,
37:08
you've got Jared Verse, Harold Burke you know from Florida State, Harold Perkins
37:13
coming back on the other side for LSU. Let me give you my break
37:16
down, then you tell me what you think LSU's gonna be interesting. I
37:21
think LSU's offensive line this year is going to be marketably better everything I've been
37:24
reading about it, they've got a cohesive unit. Last year's LSU offensive line,
37:29
between injury and lack of play, it was like every game it was
37:32
different. And Jayden Daniels really his running last year was more improvising than it
37:37
was anything else. And so this year, I think we're gonna see more
37:42
of the run pass option get integrated into this and so it'll be more of
37:45
a choice run. It's gonna be to see whether or not those defensive backs
37:49
for Florida State are they gonna pinch up a little bit early and are we
37:52
going to give some of those guys, you know, those frisbee catching dogs
37:55
at LSU. Has Malik Neighbors in the game a chance to get down field
38:00
make some big plays that could be interesting. On the flip side, Florida
38:04
State Jordan Travis, he's good and this is a good offensive line unit that's
38:09
there. He's got some skilled position players back, and so both of these
38:13
teams are equally matched. But when you ask me what I'm gonna do come
38:15
Sunday, I'm gonna be saying, Florida States, you can suck that tiger
38:20
dick bitch. I am going LSU minus two and a half in this one.
38:23
I think this is a better roster. I like the offensive line play,
38:28
and the one thing I like about this is I think Jordan Travis isn't
38:30
gonna be able to run free because they're gonna have a defense in place with
38:36
Harold Perkins spying on him or putting pressure on him that he didn't see last
38:38
year. I do think Jared Verse is probably gonna get some sacks, but
38:43
last year Florida State had four sacks in this game, Verse had two.
38:46
I don't think they're gonna be able to get the pressure and be as disruptive
38:50
in this one as they were last year. Give me the Tigers minus two
38:52
and a half to pay it back from last season and get the season started
38:55
off one a note you don't mind. At the end of the day,
39:00
I am. I'm just not just not sold on Florida State, and more
39:07
importantly, I'm not I don't know that I'm sold on Mike Norvell, and
39:14
that's why I'm taking up of set. I think Kelly's one of the best
39:19
coaches in college football. I think he's one of the best three or four
39:23
active coaches in college football. I think that's one reason I've loved this hire
39:28
since day one. I don't care if you try to go take Southern accent.
39:32
Everybody that's mean to get looking for a much bullshit guys trying to figure
39:36
out how to fit in. Look I get around people, my Southern accent
39:39
gets worse. I know that's hard to believe. And you know, it
39:45
is what it is. You know, if you're not from the South,
39:49
you just don't understand that. I mean, there are dudes that come down
39:52
and they started drawing letters out. It's how we talk. It is what
39:57
it is. And I think it was bogus. I think he figured out,
40:00
you know what, just let me be me. I think he's a
40:02
really good football coach. I think both these teams are really talented. I
40:08
do think Nora Belle has done a really good job of fixing the LS the
40:14
FSU program. I think they are better than they've been. You look at
40:17
this defensive line. I think it's really good. I think versus good.
40:21
I think love it it's good. I think Peyton's good. I think there's
40:23
a lot of good, a lot of good guys. Do we need to
40:25
leave despect the Missippi State and say that Fayy and Lovett is the Mississippi State
40:30
transfer. Okay, right, all right, so anyway, but I do
40:36
like LSU. I just think Kelly and this program are getting ready to step
40:43
for it. I think Obama win last year was a huge deal. Everybody
40:47
says, can they win on the road? That is the question when everybody
40:52
looks at what they did. Can they went on the road. Can they
40:58
perform when they're not at home? I thought they actually did pretty well on
41:00
the road last year, winning at Auburn, at Florida, and at Arkansas.
41:05
Yeah, they lost to Day and M, but that ball game was
41:07
irrelevant. And when you're building a program, and Jayden got hurt that game
41:13
too, and Jayden got hurt. Everybody talks about all Man. I remember
41:16
when Jackie Cheryl was building Mississippi State and there were games that he took it
41:22
all. I mean it was like they timed. We timed games for when
41:28
we were going to play well and when we weren't, because he knew you
41:31
can only you can only seed your talent level. But three times a year,
41:37
I think you're gonna get one of Ella's who's best shots this ball game.
41:43
And at the end of the day, I think this roster is better
41:46
that the FSU roster. Think year two of Kelly is different. I like
41:52
Kells you here. I mean I also think a lot of buying into the
41:58
height or Florida State. Nobody's talking about Clemson. Clemson has been pretty damn
42:06
good for about a decade now, and nobody wants to talk about the average
42:09
Florida State. Florida State. I think it's right where Jimboat Fisher want,
42:14
I mean, right where dabos when he wants it. And you know what,
42:17
he got the best offensive coordinator he's had since he won the national title.
42:22
I think Clemson's the best team in this league. I like it.
42:24
I like ellis you to win this fall? Then Scotty, that's the board
42:29
that we got this week, rapid fire. I got a couple others I'm
42:31
gonna throw out there. Just make some nuggets and some notes. Miami,
42:35
Ohio travels down to Miami Florida Travers. There's news at Tyler Van Dyke may
42:39
or may not play due to an injury. This line's at minus sixteen and
42:43
a half. Regardless, I think if you can get Ohio plus seventeen,
42:45
I like it. Looking at some other games that you got there, Oklahoma,
42:52
if you can get them minus thirty five Arkansas State. I do not
42:55
like the Butch Jones experience, and I think Oklahoma could boat ray these guys.
43:00
I like the under in Fresno State Perdue at forty seven to forty nine
43:04
and a half somewhere in there. So I've got a few extras that I'm
43:07
kind of kind of liking and looking into. And I think I think Wisconsin
43:10
may punk Buffalo. Personally, I think that big offensive line running the mash
43:16
when you got Mordecai, I can get it downfield weather, it's going to
43:19
be perfect on Saturday. I like the over a fifty four. I think
43:23
I think Wisconsin may punk Buffalo hard in this game. Uh. And I
43:29
kind of like, there's no way I think Wisconsin may score fifty. What
43:36
else do you got? You kind of like this weekend? Uh? You
43:38
know what? You don't? Nobody let me explain something. This may be
43:43
the biggest bet of my weekend. I don't even know what the line is.
43:47
I didn't even looked. I'm taking norder than I or I will take.
43:54
I don't even know that's out. I think you're gonna find that there's
44:00
more people hadn't covered the number in this game, so I certainly don't think
44:06
they're gonna do it Saturday. I won't have me some fun on Northern Iowa.
44:10
Just to let you know I agree with you. I like that Whiskey
44:15
game. I do like the over in that ball game because I think Long
44:19
Goo is going to score some points. I think they're gonna go fast.
44:22
I kind of liked me a little man. I have been all over the
44:28
number in this Kentucky ball Steak game, but I think I like ball Steak
44:32
plus twenty four just I mean plus twenty six, just by the performance versus
44:42
the mic for them early in the year. I love Leary going to Kentucky.
44:47
I think Kentucky's gonna be good. But I think ball State gets me
44:51
a back door cover, and I love me from that rule plus seven boy
45:00
Alixota's average, I think it's I think there's numbers too too good. They're
45:05
gonna fighting the phone booth, and I think this game is a twenty four,
45:09
twenty twenty four, twenty one. I think sevens too much. That's
45:14
the reason I like this game. The only other two I like. I
45:16
like the under at fifty and a half. This is a good number here
45:21
in Texas Tech Wyoming. I think Tech is going to have their way with
45:27
Wyoming, but Wyoming runs really so place to play. I think they're gonna
45:30
try to play some keepaway in this one to keep Tech off the field.
45:34
This Tech defense is underrated, and I don't think they're gonna want to do
45:37
too much if they get a lead other than run the rock because they've got
45:43
Oregon on deck next week. So I kind of like the under in that
45:45
one. Plus that game is gonna be played at seventy five hundred feet highest
45:50
stadium in the country. I like a little bit of the over in the
45:53
Boisey State Washington game with what Michael Pennox is gonna do. This Boisey State
45:58
defense is not a eight unit, especially going against this offense. I think
46:02
it could be really explosive in what you get. But I could also see
46:06
Boysey State putting some points up in that one and then the game I have
46:09
no opinion on that. I think is really interesting is UTSA that is laying
46:14
two points at Houston in this rematch from last year's game that went into overtime.
46:20
Frank Harris is back for year seven at UTSA, but they did lose
46:23
their all worldwide receiver and Houston thirty seven years old. He caught Rocky Massiana
46:30
when he was one hundred and thirty seven years old. If Houston loses tank
46:36
deal and Clayton tune, they're kind of starting over in that sense, so
46:37
it be interesting. But all things consider, Scotty, I'm excited we got
46:42
one more for you. Bring it, bring it, can't, can't not
46:46
say, and I will get involved on if. If Northwestern is not the
46:52
worst team in the country, I think Colorado is not far behind it this
46:59
number of twenty and a half. I've tried to talk myself out of this,
47:04
and the only reason I can is because they don't have a returning quarterback.
47:08
They're more talented at the bulk of their spots. But I do I
47:13
question whether Morris is going to get remotely the production. But I think Colorado
47:20
is going to suck clean. But I know Hunter was the number one,
47:23
one of the top four or five guys in the country starting both ways.
47:30
He sprains an ankle Week one, they're down two starter. I mean,
47:35
I don't think that roster's worth to ship. It's not that I'm down on
47:38
Don and what he's doing and the turnover, but the changes he had to
47:45
make or that is not the Power five roster. I mean it's really it
47:52
really isn't now the good news for them as they're playing on what I think
47:57
is a mid level five roster, because I don't think TCU's roster is great.
48:00
Although they brought in a ton of P five talent, you look at
48:05
them and buy a talent level at tight end, at two wide receiver spots,
48:09
they're more talented than they were at the spot based on recruiting rankings an
48:15
ability level. I mean, dude, they had a first round wide receiver
48:21
and the dude that's fallen in for and it's significantly faster and more talented.
48:24
So how does that all translate At the end of the day. I think
48:29
TCU's done. Vote race these guys. I don't think I'll rot is very
48:32
good. So I will lose money if TCU doesn't cover twenty and a half.
48:38
I like it. And then I'll tell you what, if I can
48:40
get me a duke plus fourteen Monday, I might get involved in that one.
48:45
Let me run it down for you folks real quick. We've got a
48:46
money line underdog parlay of the week. You got some Toledo plus nine and
48:51
a half. Is that what you want? Toledo plus nine and a half
48:53
or you want South Carolina plus two and a half. In this game with
48:57
South Alabama, I want to Toledo is my is my money line play.
49:06
That's the number that I am taking them. For sure. I will play
49:12
Illa Nova. I mean play South Alabama as well in a parlay with them,
49:20
but I don't recommend that as a boy. So there's what we got.
49:22
South Alabama plus six and a half. Try to get you the hook,
49:25
get it up to seven Rutger's minus six and a half, Texas minus
49:30
thirty five. I also like the first half all the way upon minus twenty
49:32
four and that one South Carolina plus two and a half under sixty four and
49:37
a half, LSU minus two and a half, Toledo plus nine and a
49:40
half, Texas and m minus twenty one in the first half NC State minus
49:46
fourteen. To get your Thursday ninth started, Scotty. I like the board.
49:50
I like to start. We're gonna make a turn after last week's two
49:52
and three start to get this thing moving in the right direction, and we
49:57
will be back next week with some more picks. Ladies, recaps and getting
50:00
things going. Brother, Are you excited, man, I'm so excited.
50:05
I'm also excited that I just want to say that it sounds like Toledo is
50:12
going to have some of my recliners in the locker room for the boys to
50:16
relax. Hong, I'm so excited about that. Colin. If you're listening,
50:21
you're a good man. Ready to get up there and see those recliners,
50:25
watch a ballgame, hang out. So looking forward to Oh my boy,
50:30
I'm up there for that one. Folks. With that being said,
50:32
you can hit us up on Twitter at knit Mark, you can hit him
50:36
up at Scott Dinson Wood. It's always review like mash Share. Give it
50:39
to your friends everything you can. We appreciate it and we look forward to
50:43
being back with you next week. Until then,