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The Favorites - NFL Week 9 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's the Favorites presented by FanDuel. Football season is here
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  Speaker 1: in Connecticut one eight hundred nine with it in Indiana,
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  Speaker 1: eight seven seven eight hope and why or text hope
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• 1:00
  Speaker 1: redline is one eight eight eight nine eight nine called
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred five to two four seven zero zero
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: in Wyoming, or visit www dot one eight hundred gambler
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites the
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I I am Shad Millman,
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. I am joined
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: as I am for every episode by my bff, my companion,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: my compadre, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, what a day chat.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: So many things happen, so many moving parts, crazy forty
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: eight hours in the world of Chicago Bears fans. I
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: gotta say welcome to our listeners who are listening live
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: on AMP. We're really enjoying it doing it live on AMP.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Not that we don't still love doing a podcast for
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: the literally hundreds of thousands of other listeners who are
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: not listening on AMP. Since I have everybody's attention, Simon
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: and I have been teasing for the past couple of
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: weeks that we are doing a live episode a live
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Favorites from Quenland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky, the horse
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: capital of the world. That is this Friday, one pm
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Eastern Friday afternoon recording from Radio Row inside keen Land
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Again one pm Keenland Friday, afternoon Radio Row. If you're
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: headed to the Breeders Cup, we love to see you
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: come by. Simon will be there, Matt Mitchell will be there,
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: I will be there. We're all gonna be there, big,
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: big live show from Kingsland Radio Row one pm Eastern
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Friday afternoon. And I can promise you if you're like nearby,
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: you're likeways wanted to meet these guys. This is it.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: I will never be back in Kentucky and Lexington the
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: rest of my life most likely, but in this at
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: least this form. Me and Chad talked all the time
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: about you know, live show. We'll try to work on
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: something for our northeast. People got complaints about that. But
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: as far as me being in lexingtonder in the football season,
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: this is a baby. The only time I'll be there
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: is for the Breeders Cups. So yeah, if you want
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: to come meet us, we'll be there Friday. Maybe Chad's
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Chad's dipping out. Maybe in that night that city you're
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: gonna buy me a drink. Will be a good time.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: I'll be there Thursday, I'm leaving Friday. You'll be there
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: Thursday night, Friday night, uhfame, We'll be hanging out with
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: our good friends Stucky from BBOC and the Action Network podcast.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: He lives in Lexington, his wife runs a great brother.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: There will be all over town on Thursday night. Dude,
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: listen to me, were laughing it. What's the name of
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: the bar? The stagger in its stagger in, We gotta listen.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: The Chicago Bears have made a lot of moves in
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: the last forty eight hours. They got rid of ro
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Kuan Smith. They just in the last ten minutes before
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: we came on air, traded for Chase Claypool. So I
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: got a text from a guy went to high school with.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: His name is John gald who listens to the podcast.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: He was upset about it wasn't upset, but he was
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: commenting on the Bears run defense. And my comment to
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: him was, I don't give a short about the Bears
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: run defense. Since the bye, they seem to have figured
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: out better ways to use justin fields. And the last
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: forty eight hours the Bears have traded to Ray, traded
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: away ro Kwan Smith, who they were going to have
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: to pay a shipload of money too, who's a great tackler,
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: but he's tackling a lot of guys because the Bears
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: defense sucks and he happens to be in the place
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: where you're supposed to make the most tackles. So I'm
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: not like looking over my shoulder thing, Oh my god,
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: we're getting rid of in the guy as an all
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: Pro linebacker when he hasn't really been an all Pro
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: linebacker in his career and wants a lot of money.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: So I was thrilled about that trade, the Chase Claypool trade.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: That one's got some lex because now you are starting
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: to give justin fields the weapons. You can't get a quarterback,
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: not give him an offensive line, make bad play calls,
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: and then not give him weapons and start saying he's
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: no good. And this is the argument for the Bears
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: that if they have done so many times in the past.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: I like this move, like it a lot. Doesn't change
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: anything for this season, but I love it for the future.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: For the season. Changes for me is that now he's
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: get to put working with him during the season, going
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: to an off season. And I mean, Claypool should be
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: your number one. We think he has a talent to
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: be the number one. Now he should be when he's
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: the main focus. But again, you guys are gonna have
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: a hundred million dollars now freed up. Right, you're not
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: gonna pay all these guys and you just got rid
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: of so you have a bunch of money freed up.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: The hope is you do what the Bengals have tried
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: to do. You buy some offensive linemen. But unlike the Bengals,
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: you're hopefully they can work. But it's it's what other
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: options to the Bears have to do. They need to
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: spend the money surround Justin Fields the best talent that Ken.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: So I like it, you guys, GM he'd drafted well
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: with not have that many picks on your defensive side,
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: keeping the young guys right, that's what he's doing now.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: He's getting guys, young guys more chances to play. And
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: what yea, I just nailed on the head. It's like,
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: I love what you're seeing from the Bears. You don't
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: want to make the playoffs. If you're a Bears fan,
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: you kind of want to just see Justin Fields improve
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: and that's what you're seeing right now. So yeah, exciting,
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: exciting times for the Chad and the Bears. Now we
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: can talk about some winning teams like the Eagles and
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: the Bills, like being Matt Mitchell have I just want
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: the Bears. I just want the Bears to be good
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: enough to be optimistic. And also there's a report right
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: now Matt Mitchell was sending it to us in slack. UH.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: One of the writers for the Texans UM says he's
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: not seeing wide receiver Brandon Cooks at Texans walkthrough practice
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: right now, which means, you know, there have been rumors
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: about Brandon Cooks potentially being traded. Uh. If he's not
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: a walk through and he's healthy, then chances are good
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: that he might be on the way out of Houston
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: as well. So, and then we went for one last week.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: We are three games out of first for a million
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: dollars in our contest. I thought about it this morning
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: when I was getting ready for the day and knowing
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: we had the podcast. Did I even want to say
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: the words three games out of first for a million dollars?
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Because I don't want to jinx it. It It makes me uncomfortable.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: But four and one, eight straight weeks of winning records,
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: I know, listen, we're fucking do We're the Vikings, were
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: the Falcons. You know we're due for a loss, but
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: it feels pretty good. I mean, Chad, you can't say
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: you're not trying. You're you are ice cold, my friend.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: But lucky for you you got your friend here, Simon.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: But carre you through these dark times because it's really hard.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: I get how hard it is. It's like every week
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: I'm second guesting to myself. I mean, Chad talks to
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: me Sunday morning. There's just during games, it just feels
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: too easy. And like again, maybe I'm we're both just
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: seeing the board that well, but when we talk to them,
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: I do think we made a little bit of tough time,
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: right because we're picking between lines aren't good anymore, And
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: for me, Chad, we're not. We're a huge stickler for lines.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: But when you're sitting there and the detroits two and
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: a half and they're four, that's tough. When you're sitting
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: there and the forty nine are minus one and a
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: half and now they're plus whatever, it was too at
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: that point it was like, Okay, we're still gonna take
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: the four niniars. We're still believe in it, but we
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: knew we were taking a bad number. So the Blinds
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: one was just brutal in the sense that they had
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: twenty seven points in that first half and all we
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: needed was a field goal and we would have covered
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: that number, and instead they just could not get a
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: single point in the second half. So great week I
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: mean the Carolina will one again. That was one I
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: feel like you loved and I was just agreeable with you.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: It's like our guy Chris Raybon is hot, He's on fire.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: He came in with that pick, and I was just like,
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: I don't love it. It's a good number. Chad wants it.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: I'll give it to him. Because again I knew I
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: was picking an ugly one. That one was a public
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: road favorite in the divisional game. I got why. It
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: was kind of a tough pick. But that that Carolina game, Chad,
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: I went from being so damn mad at you because
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: I was just like staying this being like, what the
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: hell this guy is killing me? He just he game.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: Why did you give us Carolina? We should because that
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: picks six. You're probably feeling the same way after that
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: pick six with PJ. It's tough, right when you take
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: your dogs they threw up pick six, you think you're dead.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: But that was really funked. It was. It was a
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: great weekend. Um to give a little more context and
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: remind people the conscious were in the lines lock in
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: the middle of the week, so those are lines that
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: we play, but we don't have to put our picks
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: in until Sunday, so we get both the benefit of
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: closing line value, but also games we love. We might
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: not have the lines that we love on Wednesday when
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: we love it on when they love the game on Sunday.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: Everything we do as transparent as it can be. We
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: put the picks into the app Action Network app. It's
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: freak download, it's award winning. Uh. You can follow every
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: pick we put him in Sunday follow the phase five
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: in the Action Network app, and you see where we
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: land and I give explanations about why we're making the
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: games we we chose and and where the lines closed,
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: and what we liked the game too. If the line
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: that we're locking in on isn't the line that's available,
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: if we still like it on Sunday morning, just go
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: download the app, follow the phase five. We're gonna get
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: everything up to the minute, right, Panthers, I had to
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: convince you of Cowboys, we both loved. Niners was a
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: terrible line, but we decided to take it because we
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: liked the Niners regardless the Browns, we never wavered. What
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: I liked about this conversation was normally we don't like
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: the Monday night games because we just don't want to wait.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: It's not because we think there's anything mathematical about it.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: We're just sucking babies and don't want to wait, especially
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: if you hate that or if you're two and two,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: So yeah, you gotta go through all day Monday, just
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: fitting on an egg um. But we were stuck with it,
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: and the Lions were two and a half. We liked
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: him at four, we liked him at two and a half.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: We've out they were alive, underdog like money line. We
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: talked about that to me was a game theory. Again,
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: we did that a lot in the contests where I
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: thought the number was shipped. I said that the chat,
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: but I said, such ship that every one of their
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: grandma's gonna be on it. And I looked at the
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: contest of the people in our contest took that number,
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: only eight percent took Detroit. So that was one of
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: those mean chatter. Three games back. If that one hits,
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: we're probably two games, maybe even one game. Because it
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: was again the most pick play, especially by these top people.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: So again, we we're gonna do that a lot of times.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: People Again, people were complaining about us taking bad numbers. Again,
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: we haven't even talked about the bed off. But I
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: got here. I never thought we were gonna put the
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: vikings in, just because we never really talked about putting
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: them in. So to me, that was gonna be a
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: tough one to squeeze in. So the courage that that
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: was ugly. And there was a point on Sunday, Uh,
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: it was very stressful as the as the early games
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: were ending. My younger son turned sixteen on Friday, he
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: got his He got a driver's license permit in Connecticut.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: You gotta have your permit for a few months again,
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: supervisors driving before you can get your license. He's been
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: wanting to drive all weekend. So I took him Saturday,
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: and like midway through the fourth quarter on Saturday, he's like, hey, Dad,
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: can we go driving me through through the fourth quarter
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: of the early games? And I'm like, yeah, you know what,
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: let's just wait until these early games end. And uh
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: he's like okay. I am like standing in front of
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: the TV and at one point I'm doing the math
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: in my head. The do I think right now, with
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: twelve seconds left and the Panthers down, I have a
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: better shot with them covering than I do with the
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: Cardinals against the Vikings with more time left on the clock.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: And then I was like, would I rather win the
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Panthers game and get another game in the contest or
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: win the bet off with Simon? And I decided, and
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: I slapped you as this, I'd rather lose the bet
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: off and win the Panthers game. And I actually said,
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: in my head, I think I have a better shot
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: to win the Panthers game, and then the Cardinals game
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: with a twelve second heave ho and then p J
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: Walker through that fucking miracle beautiful pass, and then d
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: J Moore took his helmet off. And then I left
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: when Carolina like had some crazy interception, run back to
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: take my kid driving, and I'm like, all right, we're
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: gonna be okay. But I didn't slack anybody because I
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: didn't want to say anything. And I got back and
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: saw what had happened, and it all worked out okay,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: and we didn't crash, and it all worked up right.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: It's a long winter way of saying we should have
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: been five Chad's got to learn to listen to a
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: guy who's are professional. As soon as he made that pick,
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: he already was at pcent chance of losing that bet.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: And what happened. Chad lost against it too, And oh
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: and he lost in the scuture. Let just terrible, terrible
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: mistakes by Chad. Oh my god, I'm so you know what,
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: I'll take four and one. I'll drag you across the
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: finish line, getting so fucking big. We're not even going
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: to talk about the early few weeks of the year
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: where I was carrying you, where I was crushing let
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: where I'm making the right choices, where it's Sunday morning,
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: whereas it's Sunday morning, and Simon is like, all the
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: voices are in my head and so hard in the
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: first three weeks, and I don't have any data, And
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: I'm like, Simon, let's focus on what we know. Let's
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: break our bad habits, let's do the right things. So
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: if you need to go on the air right now
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: and fluff yourself because you think you gotta tell everybody
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: how genius you are, I won't. I'll be the bigger guy,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: and I won't remind everyone I was caring you earlier
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: in the year. I just want to learn your lesson.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to flip myself. I literally called you a
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: full last show. I haven't called anyone a full in lifetime.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: I love Chad, Chad's China's Best. Don't get on Chad's case.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: It's really hard to pick winners, so that that card
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: knows one. It was just classic right, even in the
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: back of your mind. You had to know and you
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: remain a mistake as soon as you saw their public dollars.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: I have been betting as a winner for twenty years.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: I wrote the book, I started the business, I built
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: the beat. We sold this company for two million dollars.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: Don't tell me I'm not good at making bets. That
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: literally means zero to sports gambling. I don't care. If
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: you wrote a thousand books on sports gambling, you still
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: don't know anything compared to pros now. Chad Milman wrote
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: a book. I didn't really like the Vikings. I just
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: knew really smart group was on it. Dad came in
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: big ahole hunch on his Cardinals. So again, I love you.
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: I'm so are winning not eight weeks. Let's get to it.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: Let's get to it Eagles, Texans, your Eagles in the
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: city of Champions. The Eagles are thirteen and a half
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: point favorites on the road on Thursday nights. I know
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: Chad gonna be in Houston, but this is just I'll
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: take the best team in the NFC right now against
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: our reallly the worst team in football that cannot stop
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: the run. Like I can't believe that that Houston couldn't
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: beat Tennessee last week. They had a rookie that couldn't
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: throw the ball further than ten yards. Derrick Henry was
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: just a man you looked like literally nf AL player
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: playing in a high school game. But they just could
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: not bring down Derrick Henry. I would love to take
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: a short, short week, take a big dog at home.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna let them suck me in. I bet
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: this up the fourteen, so I think you're getting a
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: good number on the Eagles and Eagles first half. It's
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: good it's seven and oh if it's under minus six
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: and a half, that'd be incredible to bet, but I'm
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: not sure it is right now. But I just I
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: keep betting every week and it keeps coming through. So um,
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I'll have this in our contest. Becau. Again,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: this is such a huge number. I don't think you're
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: doing this in the contest. It's the rare time where
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: it's like last week I went to and one on
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: the big favorites, and I like this big favorite this week.
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: I like the Eagles. Here, Eagles are a touchdown favorite
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: in the first half right now. That's a nice number.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: So I take that um but definitely not a contest play.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: I mean, what do you see in Houston? How do
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: they cover this number? They're about to get rid of
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: Brandon Cooks? Like, what are they doing on third downs
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: that gives you confidence they can keep this close. It's
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: not a question of what I'm seeing on the field.
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: It's only the situation. And honestly, if this wasn't the Eagles,
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: you'd be with me. What if this was the Chiefs
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: are the Bills, I would not be with you. If
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: you want, you do understand how good the Eagles are,
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: right the third highest odds for the Super Bowl, Yeah,
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: I get it, but yeah, the worst team, worst of
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: the NFL on a short week is a massive number. Yeah,
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: But I mean, I don't know. I just don't get
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: scared off of I mean, I feel like if this
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: was fourteen and maybe start leading towards you, but you
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: get under two touchdowns for that's a nice number two
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: for this Eagles team. Alright, Vikings on the road at
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: the Commanders. Here's the one that we both love. Simon says,
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: Simon says, yeah, Simon, do it? What says Simon says?
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: Another three and a half. I think last week we
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: give out Cleveland, they were just had three. This week
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: we got the little bump um. I don't know if
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: it was good because of t J. Hockins, and I
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: feel like it was three and a half um when
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: I bet it someday, you know, it's been three and
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: a half since it opened. Basically, Situationally, we like Washington.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: We like their defense, we like the rhythm they found
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: on all offense. That was the first time they've come
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: back in a game. They were down double digits in
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: the fourth quarter since Mark Brunel. Like Washington has been
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: lost for the last like twenty years. Again, I'm not
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: saying Heinekes found them, but they're four and four right
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: now in the hardest division of football. Like you can't
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: just act like that's not pretty impressive. For this Washington
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: team that I kind of left them for dead as well.
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: But we've been riding in the last couple of weeks
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: here and they've been winning for us. I'll keep it
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: going again. An undervalued line. We joked, this feels like
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: a Carson Wentz tax, like they they're they're going off
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: the data from earlier in the season and Wentz was
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: the quarterback as well. I make this line closer two
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: and a half too. I'll take this every time again.
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: The Vikings are really good. Chad tried to catch him
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: last week against the Cardinals. I just they are going
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: to get caught. This Viking team is going to get caught,
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: like they keep getting away with these games that their
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: defense gives up a ton of yards but they get
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: in who prompt fumble it's on the kickoffs or dropped
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: punts or weird interceptions by their defense. So situationally, I
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: like Washington. The fact that their defense has been playing
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: so well, that's huge to me because I do think
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to get pressure pressure on Kirk here,
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: which is a big deal. So I'm back in heinarkey Um.
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: This will be three weeks straight now. I backed them,
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: but he's produced, He's covered for us every week we
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: back from chat. Yeah, I love Washington in this spot.
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: The Vikings are so interesting. Look last week, I think
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals had just taken the lead. The Vikings had
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: punted the ball the way Greg Dorch and actually Network
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: all time fave, going back to his college days, fumbles
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: the ball, the Vikings recover, they take the lead. You know,
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: Kyler Murray, they were up to at that point, But no,
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: they took the cover. You're saying, because then they went
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: up nine at that point. Yeah, that's right. And so
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: I'll be curious this week to see where the Vikings
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: are in the luck rankings because they're they're like the Giants, right,
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: they they've been getting by. Yeah, it's funny coming into
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: the year, like the one possession games determines everything. We
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: haven't talked to the Jaguars um a team that has
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: completely melted in one possession games. The Vikings. The Giants,
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: they like they flipped their whole season because they just
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: keep winning these one possession games. So the Vikings, to me,
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: the crazy part about them is the fact that Kirk
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: hasn't been the one biting him, right, He's been actually
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: functioning pretty well in that offense. UM, I just never
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: envisioned them being sitting here with one loss head an
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: end of week nine. It is crazy. And the only
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: lost this to the Eagles, so they're playing really well.
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: The Panthers, a missed field goal away from being first
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: place in the NFC South, are on the road at
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: the Bengals. There seven point underdogs, No Jamar Chase. The
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: Panthers are sort of probably getting out of their that
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: glow US against the world feeling you have when your
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: best players traded and your coaches fired, and you know,
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: the Bengals were so bad on Monday Night football that
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: you almost feel like you're probably getting a discount here
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: and the Panthers are overinflated. Yeah. I mean, obviously we
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: both wish it was six and a half, but this
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: is it feels too easy sometimes, Jen like the games
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: you do. I don't know if you want to make
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: this our foxhold bet, but it feels that way. Just
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: because I don't really think anyone's gonna be on the
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: Bengals this week. I just see everyone coming in on
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: the Panthers just because they don't get it. Their schedule
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: of losses in football. I know it sounds crazy. I
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: couldn't tell. I try to explain the reason to EVERYONEE
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: about that Brown's matchup and throwing out all the d
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: B O and all the crazy numbers, just in the
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: fact that you have to take a week. The week
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: and that Cincinnati game that was such a bad spot
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: for them, huge win. Now playing against the divisional thow
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: that had a bad loss on the road. Joe Burrow
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: now owned four against that Browns team in his career.
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: He just does not play well against them. So now
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: you get Joe at home oft an embarrassing loss like that.
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: I feel like every time he's in the spot, he
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: dominates the team. Just so happens. It's a team that
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: I'm with you. Yeah, I think they might be reeling
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: a little bit like you just lost the divisional game
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: that was four first in your division. Now you're going
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: on the road again, right back to back road games.
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: That's hard. That's a really tough spot to be putting
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: this Carolina team and PJ and PJ played so well
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: in that game against Atlanta. I just can't see him
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: doing it again against the Bengals team that their defense
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: those two touchdowns. I get to the Browns the second half,
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: first touchdowns they gave up all season the second half,
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: So just a bounce back spot for the Bengals. Um,
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: I love it. Back to back week. So I was
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: taking fox on a favorite fours last week. This week
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: the Bengals. Yeah, I'm done with that. Let's put in
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: the fox off. Let's clide down into the foxhole. Bills
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: on the road, twelve point favorites at the Jets. We
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: got a little bit of a pro Joe split here
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: the tickets on the Bills of the money on the Jets.
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: One of our most bed games of the week so far.
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: Last week, you love the Bills. Yeah, you know, kind
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: of a bad beat in terms of of not getting
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: the cover. But you know, as soon as you saw
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: a line up there down seventeen and you've had the ball,
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: you know everyone it's it's time to turn it off
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: and go to bed. Yeah exactly. I went to bed
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: last night with the Browns. They were up five nothing. Yeah,
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: I'm like if it, if they come back and I
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: miss it, that'll be time well spent sleeping. That's what
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: I just tweeted out that we had already won even
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: those third quarters. I was like, if history is made
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: tonight and Joe Burrow has five touchdowns in the second half,
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: So be it. No, this tweet is not gonna look
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: like idiot when I wake up, Bills are twelve point
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: favorites on the road of the Jets. That Bills are
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: probably the best two on football. They played so bad
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: against Green Bay and they still won by ten. The
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: weapons like when Diggs is good and Gabriel Davis is good.
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: When Josh Allen can pick up ten yards anytime he
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: wants to run it. The only way they lose is
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: if they beat themselves. Like there's just so if you're
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: if you're betting the Jets, you're betting on Josh Allen
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: having back to back bad games. And he just had
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: a bad game and put up twenty seven points. So
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: I just don't see it. Um historically again as a favorite,
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen now in his career, I think he's six
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: and two now as a as a double did your favorite? Um,
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: So keep riding the train. I'll keep back and I'm
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: gonna hurt me last week, that back door hurt, but
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna let it scare me off. I'll just
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: take this big favorite against his Zach Wilson that Yeah,
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: he threw for three d fifty yards, But I think
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: any Jets fan would say he looked lost in that game,
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: and he made a lot of dumb decisions. He said
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: a lot of weird quotes this week that's just rubbed
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: a lot of people wrong. Um, But man, I I
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: can't believe the fact that again that Patriots game, they're
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: probably gonnat lose it, but it was tend to it
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: was ten to three, and or maybe it's ten to six,
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: and he throws that pick six, Matt Jones throws a
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: pick six and they call rough in the past or
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: so instead of being seventeen to six or um seventeen
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: to three, they call that back. Max drives the field,
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: they score a touchdown. Now they're up thirteen to ten,
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: and just completely flipped that game at one place. So
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: maybe I'm undervaluing the Jets here, but I just it's
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: no more about the Bills. I just think the Bills
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: are the best team of football right now. I don't
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: know how the Jets are going to move the ball
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: against this Bills team. They just it's a good matchup
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: offensively and defensively for this Bills team. So Um, we'll
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: stay away, we won't put in the contest, but I'll
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: probably end up taking the Bills this week. What's interesting is,
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: you know, last week I wanted to play the Bills
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: in the second half, and um, because they've been so dominant.
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: The line was four and a half before the game
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: in the second half, and then during the game it
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: got down to two and a half at halftime. Ay,
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: even though they were up I think or it was
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: pretty big lead at halftime. Ah, I couldn't pull the
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: trigger even on two and a half. I just felt
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: like something ain't right here and uh, and sure enough
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: they didn't. They didn't cover in the second half. I'd
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: be curious to see if I feel differently this week
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: on the Jets. Yeah, there's the game. Worst team. You know,
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: nobody who can. Like the Packers are always an Aaron Rodgers.
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: You know Romeo Dobbs finally catching the ball pass away
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: from scoring. The Jets are never going to score. They
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: don't have good running backs, terrible terrible quarterback like they
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: lost their blue Chirp. They lost the horse of the
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: team and Bryce Hall. So I I don't want to
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: be the guy always taking right like we love home dogs,
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: big divisional dogs. I feel like I should be on
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: the Jets here. I just think they're realing right now.
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: It's just bad, bad mojo for that team after so
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: many big injuries. Indianapolis Colts on the road at the
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: New England Patriots. Patriots bounced back uh cover against the Jets.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: The Colts brutal, brutal loss to Washington. Good for us.
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: We love Washington plus three. They're reeling right. They just
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: fired their offensive coordinator. Frank Reich is doing everything he
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: can to save his job. Sam Ellinger was kind of
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: blah like people would get excited about his ability to
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: run with the ball, but not great. Michael Pittman Jr.
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: Dropped an easy pass in the middle of the field
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: that could have gotten closer to field goal range to
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: end the game. I don't know, kind of a dead number. Yeah,
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: by the by the book that you know what we're
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: supposed to do here, and we're supposed to take the
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: Colts like this is kind of the spot you do
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: take them after a brutal loss like that, they go
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: on the road. It's usually a rallying moment for this
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: team against the Patriots team that I still think Mac
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: Jones looks broken like he didn't. He wasn't the reason
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: they beat the Jets, like the running game and their
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: defense was the reason they beat the Jets. So, UM,
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: I like this game to be close. I just see
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: these two teams are very equal. To me. We're getting
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: a free two and a half two points just because
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: the young kid on the road here. That's the fear
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: right with Belichick, So hard hard week for contests, like
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: we might have to force one of these ones in.
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: But just how am I gonna get behind the Colts
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: on the road? I can bet it. It's just hard
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: to make it one of my five best bets. I
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: just I'm scared of it. It's not even close to
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: a contest play. I agree with you, the Cults are
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: probably the right side. The Patriots are not a good
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: enough team to be, you know, on the plus side
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: of closer to being a touchdown than a field goal. Um,
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: but do we back Mac Jones and the contest when
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: we're three out from a million dollars? There's no way, Uh,
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: but the rates one point favorites on the road at Jacksonville,
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: do be back the Trevor Lawrences. The line just moved
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: to two money just came in on the Raiders. So
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: the line and the Jacks just moved to uh plus two. Look,
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence has disappointed us NonStop, non freaking stop. But
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: as a dog at home against a not very good team,
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: I know they just got zero points the Raiders. I
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: feel like you didn't. You have some crazy stat earlier
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: in the year. Yeah, with the Colts mults at zero
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: points and then the next week they beat the Chiefs
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: out right, You're right like it when it when a team,
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: it's basically a stat. Like teams that don't cover and
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: get blown out. It's two thousand five cover clip the
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: following week. So like to me, I want to be
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: all over the Jacks like this. This feels like the
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: right time to take them. But every things screams. Raiders
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: bounce back against the Jaguars team that simply does not
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: know how to win every game. They have the lead
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: every game that everything's working for them. Trevor Lawrence, maybe
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: it's a maturity. He's just a maturity makes horrible decisions.
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: But like that game, Travisy TM was moving the ball
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: up and down the field on that Denver team, incredible runs.
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: They still couldn't manage that game, so it is you're
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: you're right. That's probably my worst call of the season
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: in the year the Jaguars, they've been so disappointed. One
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: score games, they just keep losing. So I don't know,
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: I want to take I want to take the Jaguars,
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: but it feels like the Raiders is probably the right
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: spot here. They'll be heavily bet by the public this week,
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: but it feels like, for a good reason, the Jaguars
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: simply suck. They just can't win, and every week they're
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: proven to us they just not they don't win, and
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: they don't cover. What's your rating on this game right now?
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: Having to pick, so again the value is on the Jaguars.
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: But it's just like my computer can factor in and
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: these guys have the loser mentality, like they just cannot
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: finish games and they get so caught up and so
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: antsy um that can't close out games. We're like, again,
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: we've seen the Giants were the opposite this year. Every
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: close game they seem like they get better and cooler.
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: You really gotta beat him by double jigits, double digits
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: to beat him this year, So Jaguars are just stay
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: away from me, it's so interesting, Like we really thought
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: this was gonna be a Trevor Lawrence year, um because
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: of Doug Peterson. What if he's not that good? And
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: I know where what twenty four games twenty five games
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: into his career, but and and and seventeen of those
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: were with Urban Meyer. Yeah, they're not that much better
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: with Doug Peterson than they were with Urban Meyer. Yeah,
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: they're definitely well coached. But I try to do the
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen thing now. I'm trying to always give guys
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: three years because I really did not see Josh Allen
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: to anyone. Did he turned into I thought he would
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: be like a Ryan Tannehill, a big, strong athlete that
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: can make a good throw right now and then. But
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: being the number one, one, number two best quarterback in football.
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: I just didn't see coming. So I'm ready to bury,
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: uh Mac Jones. I'm ready to bury Trevor Lawrence. Like
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: these guys to me, Zach Wilson, they're they're they're not good,
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: Like Justin Fields look like the only one that's produced
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: that you can see a future with. But it's too early.
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna keep waiting just I don't look
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: like an idiot because this this draft class Drevord turl
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: Lawrence coming and had all the accolades. So I'll give
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: him the time because he has the body right, He's
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: got the arm, he's got the skill. It's right now,
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: it's all mental. That's his biggest weakness. Right now, the
• 32:34
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• 32:36
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• 33:36
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• 33:39
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• 33:43
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• 34:02
  Speaker 1: chat in Connecticut one eight hundred nine with it in Indiana,
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: KS Gambling help dot com in Kansas one eight seven
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: seven seven seven zero stop in Louisiana one eight seven
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: seven eight Hope NY or text hope n Y. In
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: New York, Tennessee redline is one eight hundred eight eight
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: nine eight nine one eight hundred five to hundred in Wyoming,
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: or visit www. One eight hundred gambler dot net in
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: West Virginia. Reminder, right now our foxholes Bengals minor seven,
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: our Simon says is Washington plus three and a half.
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: So far, the only game that we really love for
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: our final five is Washington plus three and a half
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: Bears five point underdogs at home against the visiting Dolphins.
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: We don't have a choice. Another game where we have
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: to do it. We have to take the Bears. I
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: love what I've been seeing from the Bears since the bye,
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: and I look, we both we're big on the Cowboys.
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: This past week. I came this close and right now
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: I'm holding my four finger and my thumb about less
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: than a millimeter apart from betting the Cowboys outline of
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: minus twenty one at plus three fifty, because that's how
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: sure I was the Bears. We're just gonna get tanked
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: in this game. But they kept it close. I'm glad
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: I didn't bet that outline. They kept coming back, They
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: had good opportunities. They beat themselves with fumbles. Justin Fields
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: made a stupid mistake by not touching Michael Parsons and
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: jumping over him, which Michael Parson's then returned to fumble
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: for a touchdown. But they're calling the right place for
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: justin fields Like I think this team is getting confident,
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: is what I think. And I just like them in
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: a position at home and an outdoor and what we're
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: hoping for. It might be bad weather again, this is
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday. I looked at the weather report. There's supposed
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: to be a little bit of raine, supposed to be
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: some wind. That favorite is the Bear so heavily in
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: this matchup where you want to be running against Miami.
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: You can move the ball on the ground against Miami. Again,
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: we just saw de Troy move it up and down
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: the field on them in the first half and then
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: just complete fall apart in the second half. Miami is
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: really good, but winning back to back games on the
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: road is tough, especially back to back games against teams
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: that I think we're undervalued. The Detroit pushed this week.
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: We're getting nice, We're getting a good points. I don't
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: think the Bears are that much worse than Detroit, right, Like,
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: should this line really be five? No? But they just
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: got blown out. They were have one last week or
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: kept it close. This line is probably closer to three
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: or three and a half, so that's when I have
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: it at so I think we're getting two points, two
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: and a half points of value. So as I call
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: I saw this line come up, I thought, Holy shi it,
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: Please don't trade everyone on your team, Bear, so I
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: can bet you this week. I like the moves they made,
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: like again, we already talked about it, but the fact
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: they're bringing Claypool now in as well, like we're expecting
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: to play this week, that's great. Like I just like
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: the Bears in this matchup and let down spot for
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: Miami we'll have on the money line round robin. But
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: this feels like Miami wins by three or whoever wins
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: this game is by field goal. Just a close, sloppy
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: battle for Miami on the road here. I hate doing
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: this because I hate when I tie my emotional favorites
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: to my decisions on this podcast. But it's got to
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: be an exact decision, the choice between the unthinkable and
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: the impossible? Are you with? Exec executive decision? When I
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: opened up the odds for the week and I was
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: thinking about the games, the games that immediately stood out
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: Washington plus three and a half Bears plus five. Immediately
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: looked at those and thought, and there are some other
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: ones that we're gonna get to, but of the ones
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: we've talked about, I think this has to go on
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: our our final five list. Two. Yeah. Again, it's one
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: of my favorite dogs this week. Yep, alright, guess what
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: exact decision I have made? An exact Chad has made
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: an executive decision on the Bears, which I hate doing.
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, Oh my god, because I got like
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: four text chains about the Bears that happened on Sunday,
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: and it is going to be miserable when I have
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: to be emotionally and financially psychically invested in this team.
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: Jesus Christ, that sucks less. It drops only the three,
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: I just can't see it's not having in the contest. Well,
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: it's not gonna drop to three in the next hours
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: just because of Chase claypool Um Packers on the road
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: three and a half point favorites at the Lions. Lions
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: this morning traded t J. Hockenson fired their defensive backs coach.
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: I don't know what the numbers are because I'm meant
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: to look them up. I would be hard pressed to
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: believe that a team converted more third and longs ten
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: or more than the Dolphins did against the Lions at
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: any point this season. Now their defense sucks and like, Wad, Yeah,
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: and I just feel bad for you, check because every
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: week you just wanna keep taking them because it is
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: good numbers every week. But we talked about like this team,
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: not that that they quit on their head coach. There's
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: just something missing there. There's something wrong and this team
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: can't keep games close and just bad decisions. Jared Golf
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: fourth and two, you need two yards, buddy, and then
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: you can take four shots in a row at the
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: end zone said he throws a bomb on fourth and two.
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: They never Yeah, they never get the ball back. Games
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: over so bad coaching dream scenario Like if I was
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: the owner at this point, you've already kept them, let
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: him go this long Campbell right it out, you're gonna
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: get Now, You're you're gonna guarantee yourself the top three,
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: top four pick in a QB heavy draft because golf
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: started out great, but we've seen what he is, right, Chad, Like,
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: we all know what golf is. So yes, me and
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: Chad would love to take this number. This is the
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: right time to take Detroit, a team that can run
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: the ball against a Green Bay team that cannot stop
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: the run if their lives depended on it. So we'll
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: get burned maybe, But I how do I not take Detroit?
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: This is just two two bad teams and in a
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: bad division. I take the home dog rooms every time.
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: And the fact that it's three and a half, I'll
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: get sucked in. I'll take that number. One bit of news.
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: DeAndre Swift not likely to get a lot of carres.
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: You and I both love DeAndre Swift over rushing yards.
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: Got a little banged up, had maybe one or two
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: carries at the most touchdown, got hurt. Yeah, not expected
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: to uh, not expected to participate? Uh or I think
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: Dan Campbell said this morning on his radio show he
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: might not be playing. Um so if that's true, then
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: we probably wouldn't have him in the contest. We saw
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: once he was out that second half they just did
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: nothing on all offense. Yeah, we can't. We can't count
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: on DeAndre Swift. Another one. We're gonna get sucked in here.
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: Chargers visiting Atlanta. The Falcons plus three and a half,
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: the NFC South leading Falcons. They have one game up
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: on the Tampa Bay bucket years in New Orleans Saints. Hey,
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: let's take a flashback to our NFC South Preview episode
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: from August. Well, what do you want to say about
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: your favorite team in the Falcons one to win the division?
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: Four and a half? Is it a win total? And
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: the only reason we like them is because they're twenty
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: eight to one that win the division? Way too big.
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: Atlanta is just left for debt. There's no hype. It's
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: just gross. That's where I coming. It's too big, Like
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: Atlanta should not be twenty to one to win this division.
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: I'm fine with putting a hundred bucks Torg bucks on
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: this kind of bet. You know, come December there are
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: one or two games back, I can hedge out of it.
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: Like they're just not one to win this division? Bad
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: the Falcons plus three and a half. I mean, we
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: don't have a choice. Like, again, this is probably gonna
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: be in our big balls better the week, So all
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: the people listening live, you're gonnahead start here, grab it
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: and grab it. Atlanta. I don't know how they do it.
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: They keep all these games close. The Chargers they like
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: to play in close games, they're just they they're they're oftense.
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: Seems like it's complete dysfunctional, while Atlanta knows exactly who
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: they are and what they need to do every game. So, um,
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: one of these dogs will go along this week and
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: maybe I'll back off. As I talked to other pros,
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: but as soon as this line came out at three,
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: I thought that was a nice gift. It's just the
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: public wants the Chargers to be good. They want them
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: to be good, they want them to win everything. When
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: they played the Seahawks, like I, everyone got off to them.
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: But back to Seahawks and Seahawks beat them as a
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: big dog. I think it was like a five point
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: four and a half point dog. So looking at this
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: Chargers team, they could have gotten things right during the
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: bye week. I'm willing to pay to see it. So
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: you're giving me three and a half with the land
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: at home again, I'm on a bunch of dogs this
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: week at home. It just seems like good numbers. I'll
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: let the book suck me and I'll take those numbers.
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: Let the public just bet the Chargers. That's what the
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: public should do. They'll they'll take the Chargers here. As
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: we're talking. The line moved from three and a half
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: to three. You're moving lines on this show. We still
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: like it at three. Al right, Yeah, I'm interested to
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: get your take on this one because this next one,
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: Seattle is on the road at the Cardinals two point underdogs.
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: It was two and a half. This morning. You and
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: I were on Green Dot Daily. Check it out noon
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: Eastern at Action Network HQ in the Free Action Network
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: app around YouTube. It's the show for Action Network fans
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: where we set the betting agenda for the day for
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: the week. Uh. Simon and I are on Tuesdays at noon,
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: first off the block. We talked about some games that
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: we like. I mentioned Seattle plus two and I liked
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: it too. About one it was. I mentioned two and
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: a half. It opened the three. It's down to two
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: and a half now too. You agree or disagree, we're
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: both blinded by the light. We love Seattle. They've been
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: good to us, Like we almost put them in the
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: contest in my US three and a half because we
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: just liked them that much. They're good. They're just a
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: good team. Gino is good right now. Like the passes
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: he had to lock it were incredible. His deep ball
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: is really good. Even DK Metcalf, who was banged up,
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: was making a huge place for them. I think Kenneth Walker,
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: the running back, has just been a lading rod for them,
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: Like the guy is really hard to break down, tackle
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: and breakdown. So everything Chad's gonna say it's true about Seattle.
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: I wanted to take them around. They opened up three.
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: I did throw a little bit on it because it
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: was like, Okay, this is a good number. How can
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: I not I don't know what to do. I don't
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: know what to do here, Chad. It feels like I'm
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: being sucked in on. Here's what we know. We know
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: that defensively, they're relatively the same. You look at yards
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: per carry, same bracket, yards pertempt, defensively passing, same bracket.
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: Seahawks are just so superior offensively right now? Uh with
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: with a quarterback statistically on the stats that matter, looking
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: inside yards per attempt, offensively, yards percary, they're crushing it.
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: You know, Kenneth Walker is going to rin Rookie of
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: the Year at this point. He was amazing against the Giants.
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: The bookmakers got lazy and they opened the Cardinals of
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: Mine three because it was a divisional game between two, two,
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: they think or even, and they made them three point
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: favorites at home, and that's not the right side against
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: the people. Like right now, I'm on Seattle. Let me
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: talk to let me talk to the boys and find
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: out Me and Chat are stepping in one because this
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: feels too easy. I'm with Chat, Like right when I
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: saw that plus three, I grabbed it, not shocked at all.
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: Got down to two just makes me a little worried, right,
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: dropped down to one and a a half, and a lot
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: offshore books, a lot of respected books shout right up
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: to two and a half. So clearly a group has
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: made uh statement here taking Cardinals, I am buying it either,
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: Like again, I want to take Seattle here, so like
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: the number, We're gonna wait and see on this one.
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: The Los Angeles Rams are on the road at the
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are two and a half point favorites.
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: Oh boy, oh boy, oh boy. Breaking news literally as
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: we speak, the Broncos are trading Bradley Chubb too the
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: Dolphins for a package that includes first round pick Bradley
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: Chub will be playing for the Dolphins this weekend against
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: against the Chicago Bears. Does this change how we feel
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: as the Bears plus five. Definitely, you're just rushing the quarterback.
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: That's all you gotta do. And the Bears offensive line
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: is terrible. No, it's a good that's a great move
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: for Miami. Um, but now I don't. I don't think
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: it changed my opinion at all. Hopefully gets us the
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: six that'd be nice. UM give us the public does
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: like that, gives us a little bump. Um. I love
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: it for Miami. That's a that's a key thing they've
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: been missing as pass for so uh in that division
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: where you have Josh Allen love the move. Great great,
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: great trade and a guy you want to pay like
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: that's a guy you don't mind the head of on
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: your team long term. So smart move by the front
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: office of Miami. Yeah. I don't mind giving up a
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: first round pick though they gotta take it away for
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: the Brady thing. But who knows, Maybe it's next year
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: they lost their own. This is the one they had
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: from San Francisco one from the to the pick that
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: San France. Wow, smart play. I think it's a great play.
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: Like Chubb is a known quantity, he's not old pass
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: rushers like you can see them playing later under the
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: careers being really effective. It's a it's a great move.
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: I'm still going to be with the Bears in my
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: exact decision. I'm still gonna have the Bears in the contest.
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: Hope we can get a better number. Bucks minus two
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: and a half against the Rams. Yes, please give me
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: Tom Brady in a desperate, desperate spot for less than
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: a field goal against a team that cannot move the ball.
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: Cooper Cup is now day to day. Allen Robinson continues
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: to be a challenge. Van Jefferson was non existent. Uh,
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: and this offensive line is as dreadful as the one
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: they're playing against. Sure, two broken teams. I guess we'll
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: take the Bucks at home. Um, just got no confidence.
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: This team literally just got dominated by the Ravens the
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: second half. And the Ravens didn't have anybody. They lost
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: Mark Andrews, they didn't have their top receiver and their
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: number one running back Baltimore still dominated them. So the
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: Bucks are They're bad And like me and I had
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: just talked earlier, we don't even feel comfortable betting them
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: to win their division right now, even though it's only
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: whatever minus one thirty minus one fifty. It's like I
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: don't know. I just don't know what to think of
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: this team. I feel like there's still a lot of
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: bleeding left. So I'll take Tampa. But you really would
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: have to convince me Sunday morning if you want to
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: get this one. And like, I really have to hear
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: from other people and from Chad where it's like, Okay,
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: I see what these guys are doing, because to me,
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: it feels like I'm just playing a fade on the Rams,
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: and I just think the Rams are even more broken. Um,
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: that's why I take Tampa. But just diving into the numbers,
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: Aaron Donald could kill Brady. Like again, this could just
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: be an easy underbet for us, UM and everyone else listening.
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: You don't have to take a side. But if I
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: had to take a side, I'm with Chad. I take Tampa.
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: Here in the spot. I think it'll be an interesting
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: conversation for us on Sunday. I don't know that we're
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: gonna love all right. Now. We have Washington, the Bears, Detroit, Atlanta, Seattle,
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: all short dogs, and I think on Sunday we're gonna
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: look at the Bucks. And they thought about it a
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: little bit more and think all right at home, there's
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: less than a field goal. These are two bad teams.
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: If it were two bad teams that we didn't have
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: biases against, we'd be taking the home team at less
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: than a field goal. It's true, now I have no
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: bias here. It's just like you just said, it's just
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: like a really stinky play. Like we're just playing strictly
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: the numbers, trying not to think about this game at all,
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: which I'm a big believer in. So yeah, you might
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: put it convincement. Titans on the road twelve and a
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: ha points underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs. Got a
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: text from a buddy called Snoop. Snoopy the dog Tennessee.
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: So we gotta take Tennessee this week, So me'll talk
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: about it. I don't know what to do, like i'd
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: hear more from people. They love Tennessee. Why first of all,
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: this number I like Tennessee, the fact that it's a
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: huge number for the Chiefs at home them Historically they
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: let teams hang in us. I mean I can even
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: all time, and I can think of Jordan's Loves game
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: with Green Bay. Like that game Jordan Love might complete
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: a five passes. They somehow covered the eleven half spread
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: wherever it was that Green Bay was. I don't know
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: what to do. Like the Chiefs historically don't perform well
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: as big favorites. Um, there's usually a spot you go
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: the other way. So the fact that a pro text
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: me mid show that we need to talk about Tennessee,
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: you know, makes me know where the pros are at.
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna be surprised. You're in the sharp calls.
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: A lot of pros are gonna be on Tennessee. I
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: don't know, don't feel comfortable, don't So maybe that's even
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: more reason of doing it. Because we leak just could
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: not move the ball in Houston. Houston's defense is much
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: worse than this Chief's defenses. And this is arrowhead, right,
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: So it's a lot to put it on a rookie
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: qb Um. Maybe it's just the fact that Derrick Henry
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: King Henry right now is looking like the best running
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: back and football doing it all. Maybe Christian mccaffres shouldn't
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: say that. Uh man, that's a tough one. Chat. What
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: are you thinking of this one? Are we going tend
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: to see here? Yeah, we're totally going with Tennessee here.
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: It's uh where you just mentioned by the way, you
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: didn't want to pull the trigger on Tampa to win
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: the NFC South. So again he Simon is talking about
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: on Green Dot Daily. This morning, we talked about, um,
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: the picks that we were looking at, and then we
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: talked about at this point in the year, in the
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: NFC South, the Falcons are in first, the box are
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: in second, and in the NFC NFC what was the
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: other division? It was West, the Seahawks were in first
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: and the Niners were in second. So we're talking about, like,
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: if you're buying futures on the division, who do you buy.
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: We both wanted to hold on the box and buy
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: the Niners. Um, but uh, I think I saw. I
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: looked at this this morning and thinking about today's events
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: and was like, yeah, I think we're gonna bet the Titans. Yeah. Again,
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: it just feels like a situational play in a huge
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: number You've seen ybel get its team up for these
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: kind of games, like the defenses plays for him in
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: these spots. So we could have Pine in our face,
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: mitcha and we're down twenty eight nothing and there's zero
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: chance that tennise you could come back in a game
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: like that. But we're hoping for is a thirteen to
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: ten half at half or something like that. Just a
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: game that's sloppy and tennis you can keep close, and
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: that's the game that they're gonna try to play. So
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: Big Number already got Prose texting me about dur Our
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: Live Show. It's probably a smart move, So I'll just
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: shut up and agree with chat and take that number.
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: The Ravens with ro Kwan Smith two and a half
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: point favorites on the road at the Saints. Look. Last
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: week we talked about this. The Saints were two and
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: a half point underdogs. Two point underdogs. We initially love
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: the Raiders. The wise guys told us in our Sharp
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: Call segment that the Saints were to play. They couldn't
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: have been more right. Yeah, now they were right, and like,
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: and that's what I feel like, Chad, I feel like
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: a dummy. I try to think I'm smarter than these guys.
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: It wasn't. I was an idiot. I lost a bunch
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: of money on that they had zero points to Raiders.
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: That was truly embarrassing. So yeah, I should I should
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: probably back the Saints here, right, this is probably gonna
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: be the sharp play this week back, the Saints is
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: a dog at home against a Ravens team that has
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: a bunch of injuries like that, Mark Andrew's injuries a
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: real problem. That guy can't go through Number Bateman's out right.
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: So I love they're making moves for their defense. The
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: issue might be the offense for them right now. And
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: we just saw the Saints. It looks like they're gonna
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: keep Kamara. Like again, we're sitting here before the trade deadline.
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: We don't know what his future holds. But if they
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: keep him, yeah, I'll take the Saints. I don't know
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: if I'll be one of our five because it's not
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: a great number. I'd rather get it in three. But yeah,
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: the Saints at home on a prime time game. That
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: fan base, you know they're gonna be going crazy. Ravens
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: have had a nice run here, right, they put together
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: some some good wins. Here feels a gonta let down
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: spot back to back road games for them. Uh, usually
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: a trip up on the second one. I I'm surprised
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: right at this number. I would make this closer to
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: a pick. So it's gonna just you talk to other
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: guys with their pros and see if they're back in
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: Ravens because this numbers moved, right. I think it was
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: one one and a half. Now it's up to two
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: two and a half. Um, someone's taking a position on it.
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: But yeah, got instinct. The numbers say, like my model
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: says everything, you take the Saints in this prime time spot.
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: It's kind of like Cleveland last week. Right. We just
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: we're taking the ugly dog in a prime time spot
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: because you're getting a good number, because the public is
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: just gonna bet the favorite. We've a lot of We've
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: had a lot of news this show. The Bears traded
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: for Chase Claypool. The Bears also happened to be our
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: executive decision and one of our favorite five so far.
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: At plus five, foxholds the Bengals minus seven. I didn't
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: put the Bengals in our favorite five though, which I
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: should Bengals minus seven, Simon says, is Washington plus three
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: and a half. Um, The Broncos have traded Chase clayp
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: traded Bradley Chubb to the to the Miami Dolphins for
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: a first round pick. Uh so that's exciting. UM. Reminder
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: that uh for everybody listening, we are headed to Lexington Kentucky.
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: This week, we'll have our normal Best Bets episode available
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: Thursday night Friday morning. UM, just like we always do
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: for those who want to listen to that Thursday episode
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: on AMP. As long as the flights for Me, Matt Mitchell,
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: and Simon Hunter cooperate, we will record that episode live
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: at three Eastern. We're all gonna be in the same
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: hotel recording that episode three Eastern Thursday afternoon. Friday afternoon,
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: we'll have a bonus episode from Radio row A, Keenland,
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: if anyone's in anyone is in the area, come visit us.
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: That's one pm Eastern Radio Row on Friday from Keenland. UM,
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: we'll get that one turned round right away, so podcast
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: listeners should see it in their feeds by four or
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: five pm on Friday. Lots of moving parts. That episode
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: will not be on APP. The one pm Eastern episode
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: on Friday will not be on AMP. It feels like
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: I got it all right, Matt Mitchell. That's right. If
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: you're in Lexa to Kentucky, we'd love to see you
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: either live at Keitland on Friday afternoon or Thursday night
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: out at one of stuck Ees Lovely Wife's Bars. Stagger
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: in or two Keys on Thursday night, or just see
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: me and Simon somewhere stumbling around on Friday night. Maybe
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: we'll convince Chad to day. Probably not, though, all right,
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: I think we've said it all. This has been the
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: favorites from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Mellman.
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: He is Simon Hunter. Our producer is Matt Mitchell. Download
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: the podcast from Apple Podcast, from Spotify, wherever you get
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: your podcasts. Don't forget rate review, subscribe to leave us
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is gift. Until
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: next time. I love you, m