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The Favorites - NFL Week 8 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: I'm chev Melman, chief content Officer of the Action Network.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: We are live on AMP and I am joined as
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: I am every episode by my co host, my companion,
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: my bff, my compadre, professional better mover of the Philadelphia Phillies,
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Mr Simon Hunter, and hater of the Yankees. The Yankees
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: lose Man. That was great. Uh, it was a great weekend.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: I asked you for for sports as a Philadelphia fan,
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: as a hater um Man chat. Yeah, still haven't gotten
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: over fully the Bryce Harper moment. And I know it's
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: a quick turnaround. What is it Friday? The game starts,
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: but yeah, right now, it doesn't get much better. As
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: a Philly sports fan, We're like, I get it. No
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: one likes us, we don't care. But I think even
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: most people can root for this Phillies team because it's
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: just a six seed out of nowhere kind of team.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: So it's been a fun ride as a Phillies fan.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: I disagree. I think that I was. I actually had
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: this conversation at dinner the other night with my soon
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: to be sixteen year old son to three days away
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: from and my wife. We were talking about the Phillies
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: going to the World Series and I believe something about
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: what's that, I said, your poor wife, Yeah, I believe
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: there is something about this Phillies team that has turned
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: fans in Philadelphia from hated to endearing and much the
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: way like fans of the Buffalo Bills kind of didn't
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: exist and now they're endearing and they're sort of happiness
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: and violence and you know, traditions of slamming each other
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: and jumping into tables. I think there's something about the
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: Phillies in the way sort of people are capturing this
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: joyous nous in social media on video and the way
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: like they're just so Philly, right, And we actually compared
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: it to Boston. There will never be anything about endearing
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: about Boston fans. They fucking suck and my people hate
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: people from Boston, whereas Philly, like, there's something very endearing
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: about what's happening right now with Philly fans. Well, the
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: biggest thing the reason again, Boston fans don't realize why
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: they're the worst. Every time, you guys got a new quarterback.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: He's not gonna be a six time Super Bowl champion. Okay,
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: I think you guys need to get over that. There's
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: is no next time Brady. If I hear another Patriots
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: fan talk about some rookie quarterback that they just drafted
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: being next time Brady, this is the rest of our life. Shot.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but yeah. My favorite Philly moment was
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: it was a news reporter from San Diego. Um, you know,
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: great looking guy doing a little report in front of
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: the stadium and it was kind of kicking have been
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: more than eight years old, a little Phillip fans just
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: giving the double bird to the camera on live news.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: And that to me is Philly start the young man,
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: starting to start the young and but hilarious. So yeah,
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: I would say that was all good. Now we get
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: to the football side. Um me, Chad had a bad
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: week finally though, finally had a real bad week. Um
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: but to me, still on three two in the contest,
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: what what are you talking about? We had a bad week?
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: Like at the end of the day we were three
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: and two in the contest. Yeah, I mean I lost
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: money though, so I'm assuming our fans did. Like I
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: went big on the forty nine ers. That was fucking terrible.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: Thank God for the Seahawks though, that keeps saving me,
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: especially Seahawks money line. Um. But yeah, the nail on
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: the coffin the one that really hurt Chad's favorite team.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: The Bears just absolutely took it to the Patriots last night,
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: which again never would have believed if you would have
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: said justin fields and goal eleven of sixteen versus Belichick
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: defense on the money a game in Foxboro where again
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Belichick is seventeen and two straight up in that position
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: as a big favorite like that, justin fields and five
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: and night games came through. So it was just one
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: of those nights where yeah, I felt confident going in
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: about having them for our Survivor contests. And then ship
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: dude as soon as metcha both knew as soon as
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: that QB controversy started happening. Just not a good feeling
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: when you don't know who your quarterback is. So good week,
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: shitty ending. Let me debunk a few things. Number One,
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: last week, when I said I love the Bears of
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: plus eight, You're like, I'm putting an extremony on the Patriots.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: Swear to god, you said that to me number one,
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: no response number one. Number two. I I know you're
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: gonna say I'm a partial Bears fan, but in this
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: case I was proven right. The Bears have been playing
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: well enough and Justin Fields has not been put in
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: a position to win with the play calling or the
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: talent around him. Specifically, they've been asking him to do
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: too much in the pocket against that command against the Commanders,
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: and Thursday night they did it again. All the same
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: things were true and score that game. Yeah, your chest
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: wasn't puffed out that week, wasn't no, but no real quick.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: But I also said I saw a lot of that
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: game that made me think the Bears should not the
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: eight point underdogs against Patriots, And sure enough I was right.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: I still think Justin Fields, guy, get rid of the
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: fucking ball, Like, don't just stand there, Like how many
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: times do you drop back rid of the ball in
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: two seconds and you're holding onto it in the pocket forever.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: I got so mad last night, and I never get
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: mad at this stuff. I don't. I have perspective. I've
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: got a nice life. I love my wife, my kids
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: are amazing. I've been very lucky. There was a point
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: last night where he was holding the ball and I screamed,
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: throw the fucking ball, and my wife was like, what
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: is going on? And we were watching at the same time,
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: we were watching the Bulls Celtics. Big night for Chicago sports.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: That was a good night for Chicago. The Chicago Money
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: land parlay. Did you do it? Chat? Did you do
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: the Chicago Money? I didn't do it, and I should have.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: I saw the action, tweet it out and go, man,
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: I hope, yeah, that was good. No. No, Bulls are
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: two and two. The Bulls of the two best teams
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: in the East. You could say in the Heat and
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: the Celtics. They've lost to the Wizards and the Cavaliers.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: But I will say NBA fucking awesome. I just love it.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: And if you're not listening to the Buckets podcast every day,
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: uh with Matt Moore and a rotating cast of experts,
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: you're not. You're crazy because it is good and the
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: NBA is amazing. Let's recap for people what happened last
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: week and let's get on to week eight. As Simon said, uh,
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: we went three and two. We lost on San Francisco
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: plus two and a half. That hurt. We lost on
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Atlanta plus six and a half. We said, we said,
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: have we reached Pete Falcons? Do we still believe? We
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: thought the number was too big and they got blown out.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: We apparently we reached Pete Falcons. That means all pro
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: corner though again they're all pro corner. Yeah, touchdowns back
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: to back towards. Um all this really means, oh, Simon
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: is uh, if we've reached Pete Falcons, guess what, it's
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: almost time to back the Falcons again. Um, so we
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: lost in the Falcons. We won with Washington plus five
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: and a half Seattle plus six and a half, and
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: we had a last minute change Sunday morning to go out.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: The Jets replaced them with the Tennessee Titans. Would have
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: been fine with either, but that's always tough. Though. The
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: four in two weeks. We're just like, ah, just I mean,
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: we should have I should have got I should have
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: got the beads. It was like Chad was saying in Atlanta.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: But to me, again, I just thought, with DJ Reader
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: being out for that defense that day, better run it
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: on them. And boy was I raw. I mean again,
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: who knows about injuries, but Joe Burrow he had it
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: in that game. Like they're just certain games where they're
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: he's just not gonna miss Joe cool Man. He had
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: at that game. Simon, you're on a Romo scootle at
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: you had Seattle, I had the Lions. I love the Lions.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: This week though, we'll talk about it. Uh Foxhole, we
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: had forty Niners plus three sign and says Washington plus
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: five and a half. Exact decision. The e D has
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: hit a little bit of a e D moment, if
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: you know what I'm saying. It's tough picking games on Tuesday. Brother,
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: it is Texans plus seven Big Balls, Atlanta plus six
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: Survivor Patriots Box, no fucking joke. We did nobody any favors.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Last night. I got killed and that was the worst part.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: Like Circa, they went down from I think they're at
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: three two um. Last night, A bunch of people like
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: us lost in the Patriots. So that means there's a
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: hundred twenty five people left in the whole contest and
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: week eight, which is crazy. If they ended right now,
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: each person will get k So me and Chat are
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: hurting from that that game last night that cost us
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: a lot of money. That that was a bad one.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: You told me that earlier today and I wish you hadn't.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: I just gotta be honest with people because people keep
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: asking about it. It's like some years me and Chad
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: we'll have an extra contest, either I'll have one in
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: my own or you know, we'll sign up for two.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: They're all out, like we're done, so we'll keep doing
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: it for the fans of the show. But I got
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: nothing to keep basing who we have taken because I
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: have no contest left. So um, it's tough, but you know,
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: there's there's a reason only five people are left one
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: of the biggest contests in the world. It's been a
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: hard year for Survivor. All right, let's get to it.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: Dunt Dune, Dune dun Thursday Night football. The Baltimore Ravens
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: first half covering Machines visiting the Tampa Tanis. The Ravens
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: are one and a half point favorites, which is astonishing. Yeah,
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: Thursday Night has been kind to the home underdogs. It's
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: been kind to the unders. The Bucks could not look worse.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: The Ravens finally held on to a double digit lead
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: kind of and closed the game out. I mean, I
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: know what I would do here, and I know what
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: you're gonna say you want to do, so, why don't
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: you start? Yeah, I think this game terrifies me. Like
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: I there's always times we all have numbers that are
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: just off, and that's when you're like, well you they
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: made you find value on the line. But the value
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: gets dictated a lot by the book itself, and what
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: the public is gonna do is said line. So sometimes
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: I do step in it. Um, But the public is
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: high right now. Again, the last two weeks the biggest
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: games bet the public is going seven and two, so
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: they've been winning on betting, very public sides. Again, people
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: always give me chet ship. They say all we do
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: is fade the public. We've gone six and four last
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: two weeks, so find a new slant. It's clearly not true. Um.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: We again we talked it's not that we're fading the public.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: It's the fact that there's gonna be value on the
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: line because of public has bet it the other way, right,
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Like we talked about all the time, the job of
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: the book is to get money. They want to suck
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: you on certain games. They're always not gonna be right either.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: I mean we saw it last night. The betting was
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: split last night on the Bears. What happened That line
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: went on up the nine at one point because they're
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: just trying to see when the professionals will come in.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: That's what they're looking for. They don't really they don't
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: really care that the betting split. They're trying to figure
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: out where the limit is. Um apparently everyone's way off again.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: They won. They won not just by a little bit.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: They dominated that second half that Bears team. So this
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: is a line that right when it came out, I
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: made it minus three. The fact that it's minus one
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: and a half that's red flags to me because that's like, Okay,
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: am I overvaluing the Ravens? Or am I still again?
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: I still think this Buck's team just isn't as good
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: as the book thinks they are. Like again last week,
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: paying me and Chat not to take in the contest
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: because the line was only ten and it went up
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: all way up to thirteen. So we just couldn't talk
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: ourselves into it. But we said home dog, double digit,
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: home divisional dog, we're gonna take Carolina, and we didn't
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: have feel good about it. Little did we know that
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: was easy as better the week, But that's just what
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: you do in those scenarios, so mean cha. Let me
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: talk about it. The same exact scenario last year of
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: this Ravens team. They went down to Miami, who was
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: on owen six losing streak on a Thursday night game
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: that I got absolutely blown out by Miami. So I
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: want to take the Ravens here, but it's gonna be
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: the most public side. So coward move. Just taking Ravens
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: first half, you can get them in minus one fifty
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty. The money line, we already know the numbers. Lamar,
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: he's a covering machine in the first half above six
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: seven percent for his career. Um to me, can't can't
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: go him out full game. I'm probably getting up just
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: teasing the books or something, because I just don't get
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: this line at all. Um, bizarre one again. Maybe I'm
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: I'm leaving money on the table here not taking the
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: Ravens and public are gonna nail this one. But fishy line.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: I just don't get the books to hang up plus
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: three on Tampa they would have got pro money, the
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: public still would have hammered the Ravens. So to me,
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: the smart the smart move the smart money here as
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: you take just blindly take the Tampa Bay Bucks here. Um,
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: but I don't know what to really do with the chat.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: It's one of those few games I'm just stumped by
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: the line. I think I'd wait, like all the money's come,
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: all the tickets are coming in on the race evens. Yeah,
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: there's so much negativity around the box. You have to
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: take the box. There's a four losses for the Boks.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: What's that is? A four straight losses? Now for the Bucks?
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: I know it's three, I can't remember. But what you're
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: just saying, it's it's it can't get any worse. It
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: can't get any worse. This is when you have to
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: take the box. It's a it's a season defining moment
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: for them. The Ravens have been so inconsistent in the
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: second in their last five so it's just like, you know,
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: I just want this number to get a little bigger. Yeah,
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: which is fair. So I'm saying if if you don't
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: your fair and patient, you just want to take it six,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: you can get seven and a half right now in
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: a teaser. That's that's a good tease game. Good point,
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: good point, But the recommendation is to wait. Definitely will
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: not be one of our Foxhold Simon says, exact decision,
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: big balls, and it will not be in our contest.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: Here's a game that gets interesting. Broncos plus three on
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: the road at the eggs, of the tickets on Jacksonville,
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: of the money on Denver. I have a little bit
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: of a theory here. You and I have had a
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: bias for the Jags all season, and it bid us
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: in the ass again this past week. You said something
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: really really smart last week about the Jacks and that
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: it might be taking longer for Doug Peterson to work
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: as magic and get rid of the losing culture that
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: we expected it to. And I watched you know that
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: Jack's Giants game, a lot of it, so many mistakes,
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: so many missed opportunities, not executing in the most important moments,
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: not getting beat just beating themselves, and that I mean again,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: they should have won that game against the Giants going away.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: This Broncos defense is really good. Yeah, I feel like
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: again we we talked about our luck metrics that we
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: do over the Act and Network. Our guys told us,
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: like even next said it was multiple times, the Giants
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: are the luckiest team in football right now. So the
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: Jaguars are driving down the field the end and a
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: half about the running in for a touchdown. Guy gets
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: tackled as he's crossing into whatever it was the three
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: yard line to get a first down. Ball pops up
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: to the Giants. They take the ball, they drive the field,
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: kick a field goal and a half. The game ended
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: them winning by three. So to me, again, Debil coach
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: of the year, no doubt, right, Like if the Giants
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: make the playoffs, he's he's looking at coach of the year.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: To me, Um, it's incredible, it really is. What's interesting
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: is that the Giants have a culture of losing two
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: and Brian's day ball changed it, changed it immediately. But
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: again there's a couple of differences, but I would say
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: the biggest one to me is just the Daniel Jones
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: effect here at the end of the games. Whatever is
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: going on with him and say Quan it's working like
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: Sa Kwon will pick them up when they need it,
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: and Daniel Jones does, like every every time they need
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: her first down him, he's getting it. And that's the
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: craziest that I saw. He's on pace for over eight
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: yards rushing this year. Okay, who do you think the
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: other four quarterbacks are on that list. Chat. Daniel Jones
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: again is on pace for hundred rushing yards this year.
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: Let me think about it. Let me think about it
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: for a second. Uh Lamar Jackson, justin Fields, no hurts
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: and he might be uh Mike Vick Randall Cunningham. Oh oh,
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: I thought you meant this season like no, no, no,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: historically okay, historically. So that's what I'm just saying is
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: Daniel Jones is on pace to do something that's only
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: been done by some of the greatest athletes this game
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: has ever seen. So as much I want to knock
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: the guy, he's not the greatest passer. He's clearly a
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: good athlete. He's smart. Again, these games, these they'll roll
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: them out like the offensive schemes great, They'll get him
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: outside the pocket. If he sees there's no spy, he'll run.
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: I mean again, last night with Belichick, blew my mind.
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: How you not spy justin Field? Like that's what the
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: kid wants to do? It was bizarre world. He just
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: wouldn't spy him the entire game. Same thing with Daniel Jones.
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: So the Jaguars outplayed them in every way, did not
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: matter because this gain all comes down to coach. And
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: so when I look at this game the Jagson le Broncos, yeah,
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: I would love the fade. This Broncos team that just
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: seems like they're completely falling apart. Who's to say the
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: Jaguars on either again, this is it for their season,
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: so that would be I guess my reason you can
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: take them here. But again, last week we went three
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: no on Tuesday unders. I gave out this is another game.
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: I'll be on the under. It's just don't overthink it.
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: To me, two really good defenses. Like last week, the
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: Jaguars played really well against that Giants offense. I see
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: the same thing against the Denver team that just came
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: move the ball. Denver defense is good, like they took
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: everything away last week and they still couldn't do anything
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: like give up sixteen points at home. I couldn't get
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: the win. I just see Lebroncos playing hard still on defense. Um,
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: to me, this is I mean, we might be able
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: to talk into it because we always do. On the Jaguars,
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: I just can't put them in our contest. They just
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: are not good to us. So to me, it's a
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: stay away. I actually feel like by by Thursday this
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: will be the Broncos. Yeah, I think this might be.
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: This might get us some sharp calls and I think
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: by Thursday they sends up being our big balls better
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: the week. By the way, the total you mentioned the
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: under the total in this game is thirty nine right now. Um,
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: the total for the Jets and the Broncos was I
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: think it was thirty six and a half. The Broncos defense,
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: we gave it out the thirty nine and a half.
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: So again, beat beat the numbers. The Broncos defense giving
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: up fewer than seventeen points per game, yeah, incredible, and
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: they're losing every game. Yeah, their offense is averaging like what,
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: fifteen points a game? Sixteen points a game. It's fucking pathetic.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: Steelers on the road at the Eagles Fly Eagles fly
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: ten and a half. Man, that is big, big burn.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you right now. I don't think the Eagles
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: cover that big of a number. They don't play well
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: enough in the second half. That's fair. I mean the
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: argument against it is what in the world happened last
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: week and how did they cover that number against Miami?
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: Miami was up thirteen nothing with five minutes to go
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: in the first quarter. They scored three points the rest
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: of the game. Game in at sixteen to ten, the
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: Steelers cover. That's why again we talk all the time
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: just bet the number is trying not to think this
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: is a really stupid game that we're betting on here football,
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: It's bizarre world. Again, these a lot we talked about
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: this year. A lot of people can play about the unders.
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: I just think these defensive schemes and the defenders are
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: out of this world. Like some of these guys on
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: these teams are just such freaks. The edges of the
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: offensive used to have is just being closed by athleticism.
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: Like these young corners are incredible. So again another game
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: of I don't know how the Steelers stopped the Eagle's offense.
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: Like the Steelers are playing with house money right now.
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: They beat a bad Bucks team, and they went down
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: to Miami and stopped the toa who look lost for
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: three quarters after that first quarter. Again, that could be
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: a Brian Flores thing. Had a good read on them,
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: helped out the defense, and two couldn't do much. But
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: I don't know how you backed the stealers here. It's
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: gonna be a big public dog in my opinion. UM,
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: I like the Eagles in this position. But again, the
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: Eagles six and oh first half. It's just I'm gonna
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: keep preaching that people. We just gotta keep betting it. Um,
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: if it's under seven points, I would take the Eagles
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: first half. But I don't know if I've been convinced.
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: Chat chats hates taking big favorites, but I'm too and
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: oh this year taking big favorites. Um, I like this one.
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: I do like the Eagles in the spot coming off
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: about I gets a team that's coming off a road
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: win in Miami. We're all sign in right now. I'm
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: looking at the Action Network app at fan Duel. Uh,
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is plus six and a half. Um, there are places, Uh,
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: you can get Philadelphia at five and a half. That's nice. Again,
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: it's all due for regression. We know last night the
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: Bears were own six and first half. They didn't just cover.
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: They won the first half outright. So it's always been
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: the lookout, don't go all one of this one. So
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: we're not gonna be on my biggest bets. It's just
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: a really nice trend on what we chat to talk about.
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: Eagles get big leads and then they fall upon in
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: the second half. That's why Chat obviously likes Pittsburgh here.
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: But I think they'll put it together after a goodbye week. Hey,
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: don't forget if you're listening to this podcast, if you're
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: listening live on AMP and you're in the Action Network
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: app looking at lines, looking at numbers, betting as we
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: are talking, or um use FanDuel, click on the fan
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: duel sell in the app quick slip it. You go
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: right to a ticket, put in your bet in FanDuel.
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: No searching for the odds, no closing out of one
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: app going to another app. Best most seamless, most automagical experience,
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: Quick slip in the Action app. Use it with FanDuel.
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: It's brilliant. We're gonna hold off. I'm not going to
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: be convinced to take the Eagles yet, but I'm not well.
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: I you might be able to convince me by Sunday. Yeah,
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: I feel you can see where I'm coming from. Like Steelers.
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: This might be a position to sell high on the Steelers. Yeah,
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: it could be, you know, back to back. You're right.
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: I think people got some Kenny Pickett love. I think
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: they pick it is plucky. Yeah, Patriots, short week on
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: the road, at the j e t s resurgence. We
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: should call them, we should call them the resurch Jets.
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: Get it now. I love the game. He hit the
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: word play you like the Jets? Is you love the Jets?
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: Stop trying to fade the Jets Jet All they do
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: is winning cover. It's unbelievable. Home dog. It is kind
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: of amazing. What the what again? I get to Zach
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: Wilson hate I've been betting on the kid. I've been
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: watching them. It's terrifying. He is bad. But you gotta
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: trust a home divisional dog in this position. Great defense
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: with a good run game, and I know they it's lost,
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: obviously looking at their offense. Rook of the year Bryce
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: Hall to a big knee injury. But I was hoping
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: the Patriots gonna win check because I was like, oh,
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: this would be great because I didn't bet this show.
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: I was like, this will get up to plus three.
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: Obviously went down after the Patriots laid such a huge
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: jagg great position. I mean you you're hearing guys in
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: that Patriots locker room talk about how messed up it
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: was what they did to a guy that they've viewed
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: as their leader in Mac Jones like Mac Jones all
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: off season was the leader of this team, right, So
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: Bill Belichick has did the respectful things, so this guy
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: is not gonna lose his job to an injury. When
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: three and out, I might have been three straight drives,
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: he went three out. They put in Zappy. Zappy likes
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: the world on fire, and then he comes in the
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: lay and egg in the second half. So I didn't
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: really know through this Patriots team because they're so messed
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: up right now. I feel like that drama is real
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: inside that locker room and the Jets, the vibes have
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: never been better. Again, two major injuries to their offense,
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: so I'm gonna be a broken record another under. I'm
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: gonna be on as a Jets under. I just really
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: believe in their defense and don't trust their offense, especially
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: now agains the Patriots team that it's just reeling to me. Again,
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: I don't get why Belichick did it. He's been around
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: so long. When has it ever worked doing a QB
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: platoon there's always drama. I can't imagine awkward that wasn't
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: And again I get their professionals, but they're humans. So
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: it's like they're going to halftime and Mac Jones and
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: Billy Zapp. You gotta sit next to each other and
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: work on scheme before they head out. That's gonna be
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: weird as hell. So it's maybe I'm walking into a
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: chat and I felt like I was last week of
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: the Jets. It hit like the Jets one for us. Um,
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna keep Ryan. I just think it's another good
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: spot to get divisional team dog at home with a
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: great defense. I like this matchup. Yeah, it's it actually
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: goes against It goes against our usual signals, right because
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: the Patriots are a team that just got blown out
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: and in prime time, the Jets are all of a
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: sudden the public darling. So you'd almost expect the Jets
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: to be favored and to fade the Jets in this scenario.
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: Yet they're plus two and half. It makes no sense. Well,
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: I could see, honestly the public coming in on the
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: Patriots because having the last couple of years of Patriots
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: have been the Jets. Daddy, Like, I don't know if
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: the trends out, you know what the thing is, Like,
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: we talked about these, We talked about this last weekend.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: I was joking about it, but I'm kind of serious. Hey,
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: Bill Belichick is S eighty two without Tom Brady's quarterback B.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: When we talk about the Steelers, when we talk about
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: the Patriots, when we talk about even the Seahawks for
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: the past decade, you cannot have the same conversation because
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: they don't have what you can argue is the greatest
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: players in their history in Ben Roethlisberger or Tom Brady
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: or Russell Wilson, like people who won them super Bowls.
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: So every single stat has to be in context of
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: the fact that it was those three players. It's true,
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: but I told you, I just tried to trust trends
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: because there's little there's always little details they have to
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: look into. And again it's say there asked last week
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: I refused to put the Jaguars in our contest because
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: they were and twelve or eleven or something like that
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: against NFC. They're just you can't just change overnight, like
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: I need to see it before I started believing. And
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: that's that's why I try to protect myself on these
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: trends where it's like I'm with you, I'm always about
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: stayed up to date, and it's always about this week.
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: I don't really care what happened five years ago. I'm
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: looking at this week and this matchup. But I told
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: you all the time, I respect my history. Russia winters.
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: That's the key to everything. So that's one of these
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: things I just every time I i'm losing it, I
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: try to go back to my base of like history
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: always repeats itself. Don't fall into these stupid ass traps.
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: And this is what it feels like with this game.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: It's like home divisional dog. I'm with you about the Patriots.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: This line is just funky. Like I I just don't
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: get why the Jets are a dog. They're the better team.
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: The public right now is coming on the Patriots too,
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: which again is surprised. Uh all right, well, listen, I
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: wrote this one down. It could be an entry in
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: our contest. There is it? A Signmon says no? Yeah again?
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: You you know this week we have so many nice
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: dogs at home this week. There's a couple of coming
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: up that I love. That's some tasty We got some
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: tasty dogs. Panthers on the road at the Falcons. Uh,
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: Falcons are four and a half auto play Falcons, don't
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: care right, Falcons, Falcons, Falcons, Falcons. This is the time
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: you play the Falcons relatively short number. They just got
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: blown out. Panthers going on the road. P J Walker
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: is gonna be the starter. They just beat the Bucks three.
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: Come on a team that doesn't know how to win
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: with like a coach that hadn't won before. Again, I'm
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: right there with chat, like I thought the public would
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: be all over Atlanta and we were gonna get some
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: crap number like six and a half. Seven. I love it.
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: Four and a half. Take the value that every time.
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: That's just it's bizarre world that division right now. Again,
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: you're a game out as a Panther fan, which is
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: crazy because you're two and five. But that's how bad
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: that division been has been this year. So to me,
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: nothing's changed. I still think Atlanta is the sleeper in
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: this division. They're a good team. Major injury though obviously
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: to their defense was an all pro corner. But yeah, Atlanta,
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: bad loss on the road, come home, get right spot
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: against the Panther team that just one huge at home.
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: Another sneaky underplay though again that Carolina defense. Everyone knows
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: that got players like you. You go through their games.
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: The issue is always the quarterback position. The offenses couldn't
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: produce the defense is good. So I know the owners
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: are the trends here, but this is just another game.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: I'll just blindly take the younger. I think both teams
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: and indivisional game we're gonna play for a low scoring fight. Again.
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: Atlanta run most run heavy team in football right now.
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: I'm starting to like Arthur Smith a lot. I love
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: coaches that they get a player and they build the
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: system around those players. They don't just say this is
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: my system, you guys gotta work in it, which was
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: my biggest Knox on Chip Kelly. He he just has
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: the players around him. He says, that's what I'm gonnadad
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: my system too. Again, Mariota has played really well this
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: year and he's not really asked to do much like
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: throw the ball. Wise, he's just making or reads on
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: that that option, keep the option reads. So fun, Team Atlanta,
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: we're still Atlanta podcasting that let us down last week.
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: T s this year, can't complain. Listen mariotas no gino Smith, Right,
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: that's true. The Raiders on the Road. All of a sudden,
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: everyone's kind of resurgent on the Raiders. You were on
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: Green Dot Daily with me earlier today. Everyone should watch
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: a green Dot daily noon Action Network HQ on Twitter,
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube, in the Action Network capp setting the
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: agenda daily for sports beddors Uh. We talked about the
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: Raiders in a sneaky way as a future. Why don't
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: you explain to people what you what choice you made
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: on the show. I just looked at all the different
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: teams and the schedules, and again it's just you're you're
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: basing it off grades and math. It's like, take the
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: human element out of it, right, don't don't try to
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: look at Las Vegas is a two and four team.
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: Just go blank slate and look at them on paper.
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: The seventh most efficient offense. That's a big deal. In
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: a year, were the scoring so low? We have a
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: team here that we know can score and produce. And
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: again you go through it again and one possession games
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: they're one in five. That's a big deal. We know
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: what happened against the Chiefs. They lost by one point,
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: and the chief looked like again the top two team
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: they f C lost by one point. I just looked
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: at that and thought to myself, Okay, if the numbers
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: back it up, you're gonna find good value on this
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: Vegas team. And there is again you get a plus
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: three certain books for them to make the playoffs. The
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: two and four right now, I get it. It's bad.
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: I said that, Yeah, they could easily four and two
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: like that game against Arizona, that game against the Chiefs,
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: those could have flipped easily and been towards this Vegas team.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: Which if that had happened, what are we looking at
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: minus one fifty Because the way their schedule is gonna
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: end to make the playoffs, they should just be way higher.
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: I put a closer plus two hundred plus one seventy
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: five than I do a plus three hundred plus three fifty.
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: So the Vegas to me about them being a sneaky
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: playoff team, it's more about how easy the schedule is
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: and the fact that the Chargers have major injuries and
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: Denver is just falling apart right so in that division
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: that's really sneaking. The last play of it is they
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: play the last game that year against the Chiefs. And
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: to me, again, you never know the Bills that they
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: will and one in their division right now, so it's
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: gonna be interesting how they play in their division going forward.
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: The Bills, but we all assume the Chiefs will get
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: the two seeds, so I could easily see them using
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: that final week as the rest week before heading into
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. The Raiders are two point favorites against the
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: Saints in this game. I mean it's a short home underdog.
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: We've generally backed the Saints before. We believe in their defense,
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: excellent at getting pressure without blitzing um. Andy Dalton turned
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: back into the orange pumpkin that he believed he was
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: this past week, and I don't know. I was all
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: over the Cardinals. Loved the Cardinals on Thursday night. You
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: did not. So is your opinion changed, uh for this week?
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: Do you like the Saints a short home dogs? Yeahs
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: changing the sense that I do think the Lattimore injury
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: has been a big deal to them. They just their
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: defense has not really got any stops since he's been out,
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: And that's one of these made about wait and see
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: the injury port because they don't have him to cover
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: Devote Adams. It's it's over. Like anytime they need a
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: third down they're getting it with him. He's just we've
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: seen the effect with a green Bay. Green Bay looks
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: totally lost and that's the only piece they lost with
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: devote Adams. It's incredible where it's like that important on
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: third down to have a guy you can trust and
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: go to. And then we've seen it with Josh Jacobs
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: these last three weeks. He's the best running back on football,
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: which is just bizarre to say, but contractor year for
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: the kid. So everything right now is just rolling on
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: this Vegas team. McDaniels seems like he's got the pulse
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: of this team. We look at the other way with
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: the Saints that felt like the everything game against the Cardinals, Like,
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: I don't know what they're gonna do from this position.
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: They don't even have their own first round pick this
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: upcoming draft, so they're not gonna be tanking for any quarterbacks.
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: Um dark days for the Saints right now. So this
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: line stinks. At the same time, I think you're getting
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: good value. I got to set minus three for Vegas again.
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: Better offense, more talented defense. I'm just trying not to
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: overrate the States team like I have been where I
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: like their identity a running the ball. It doesn't matter
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: if any Doone's will turn the ball over again four
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: in receptions last game. They're not all on him, but
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: some of them are just terrible reads. And that's the
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: problem with any Dalton and I don't know the Raiders.
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: To me in this position, anything under a three kind
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: of has to be a bye. I don't know if
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: it's gonna make our contest. Well, I'll be on it
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: the minus one and a half or minus two now.
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: Right now in the contest, I have Jets plus two
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: and a half, Falcons minus four and a half, and
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: on the side to discuss Denver plus three Raiders minus two. Yeah.
• 34:49
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• 36:38
  Speaker 1: The resurgent Chicago Bears who finally looked like they built
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: a game plan. As you were saying that Fitch justin
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: fields and not trying to turn him into something he isn't.
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: A lot of r p O, a lot of design
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: runs uh plays that were designed to get the ball
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: out quickly, even if he didn't always do that. UM
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: loved it. They've got a defensive backfield that I think,
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: with Brisker and Fuller, the safety and the corner that
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: they drafted this year, I think they're set for a
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: long time. I really like this team. Do I like
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: him enough to bet him at plus nine and a
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: half against the Cowboys? I really want to. Doesn't it
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: feel like the Cowboys stolen last week? I mean the
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: lines were covering all fifty eight minutes. Yeah, I mean
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: the amount of assholes that texted me feeling so proud
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: about their calling Dallas Again, I didn't have that much
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: on the lines, but I assure it's ill didn't bring
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: it up to the chat someday morning. There's there are
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: lines seven and a half in the Houston seven and
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: a half, and I was just like, if I even
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: mentioned this, Chad's gonna make us put these in because
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: that's a good value on two teams. Luckily I didn't
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: even bring it up. Chad didn't because he asked me
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: what games we had in. I left the lines because
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: I had them in on Wednesday, because again seven a half,
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: I felt like that was a good number. But yeah,
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: these assholes are right. I could not believe the lines
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: didn't cover that number. So yeah, looking at this week
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: with the Cowboys, how lucky can they be? Like they're
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: getting the team and the Bears. That's young inexperience off
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: a huge primetime win. Now going on the second road game.
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: Auto play every time on the Cowboys here, I hate it.
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: I hate that I have to do this, but it's
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: always such a smart situational play. Throw On top of that,
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: the most dominant part of this team, the Cowboys, is
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: the defense. Like I just don't know how they're gonna
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: move the ball. Justin Fields is about to meet his
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: match with Parsons. If you want to watch something cool,
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: go back last year watch hey rookie. It's great these two.
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: These two work out together every day, Justin Fields and Parsons,
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: they're good friends. They even race and I'll leave it
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: up to you see who wins the race. It's might
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: surprise you. Parsons is a freak man. So if you're
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: looking for the one guy that can take away the
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: biggest talent on the other side of Justin Fields, it's Parsons.
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I like, I like Dallas here is a
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: big favorite. It's hard not to with every signal, Right,
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: Dallas kind of underperformed, Bears overperformed primetime spot DAC second
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: game back. Uh, it makes total sense. Yep. Well, I
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: mean again, a one PM let down spot for the
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: Bears after a huge, huge Monday night week Again, it's
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: just a short weekend for a young team. That's really hard.
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: If it's a Tom Brady led team. Yeah, I kind
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: of throw that out where it's like you've got the
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: veteran presence there. What do you think these Bears players
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: were doing last night? You think they went home, went
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: right to bed. Now, they had a good time, full
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: stroll on Wednesday for practice and uh, I just think
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: they get rolled here by the Cowboys. Uh, Dolphins on
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: the road at the Lions. Lions plus three and a
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: half on FanDuel. I'm gonna say it right now. Executive
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: d C. Jen the choice between the unthinkable and the impossible.
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: Executive decision. Dan Campbell coaching for his life three and
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: a half. This team is at the this spot you
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: could possibly be for a team getting blown up by
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: the Patriots, losing a cover in the final minutes against
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys. They're getting a monros st Brown back, They're
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: at home, they've got a stellar offensive line. Expectations are
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: DeAndre Swift plays. The Dolphins just got two and back.
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: They won in prime time. Too much hype the tickets
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: on the Dolphins. I said it earlier this this season
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: when we took the Steelers at plus eight and a
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: half against the Bucks. Go ugly and cash your tickets. Yeah,
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you didn't take a chat, I was
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: gonna make it one of my plays. It's a no brainer.
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: If not, now when lines like this is it Me
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: and Chad talked before. Maybe I'm just I don't know cruel.
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: I don't know what else to say, but I would
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: have fired Dan Campbell right when that game ended with
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys. To me, that was a fireball game where
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: it's like you didn't have your defense prepared, your team
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: prepared after a bio to play a Cowboys team that
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: was letting you steal that game. They were begging you
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: to steal that game, and they just did not do it.
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm with Chad about this. Is it right? Like?
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: If this is if you like Campbell, if you want
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: to if you want him to keep being your coach
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: and your Detroit you're at home against the team that
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: I don't think Miami should be minus three and a
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: half for anyone right now on the road, let alone
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: in Detroit. So the over is gonna be a fun
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: one in this game, um exact to be a track
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: meet for both teams. Jack can Of alluded to it earlier.
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: It's a big deal. Swift is gonna be back. You
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: need to see Swift. I'm on st Brown, So hold
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: off a little bit. If you have a three and
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: a half, like Chad that earlier, maybe grab that now
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: because I can tell you that pros are gonna be
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: all over Detroit, So grab the three and a half.
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: If it's already gone at your book, just wait, just
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: wait and see what the injury report is on this one.
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: But no brainer, I seuse this game came out. I
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: knew me chat We're gonna be honest, just a good
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: position to be taking Detroit three and a half a gift, Hello, Detroit,
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: would you have taken it for? Simon says no, I
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: mean I got again. I got one. That's just I'm
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: trying to keep getting grosser. Like last week that Washington
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: football game felt gross again. That picks six the amount
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: of text I guy just from like friends and people
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: I know, because like they're asking one of my favorite
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: bets at week I said Washington. Holy sh it man,
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: It's like hilarious how people react like it was the
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: second quarter maybe first quarter, Like why the fund did
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: I bet on Heineke. It's like, just chill out, give
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: the guy a half yea A long time Cardinals on
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: the road at the Vikings, Cardinals at four point underdogs.
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: This is a sneaky one to me, this game, Yeah,
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: because I know what you want to do? What do
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: I want to do? You want to take the Cardinals?
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: Are we going to do that? I didn't know what
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: to do with this game because as soon as it
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: came out, I like back in Kirk at home. But yeah,
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: that's a I don't know, that's a lot of points
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: to Kirk to be favorite by it. I do think
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: it's probably because of the record, right, and everyone's just
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: off the Cardinals. So I'm I'm there with Chad. It's
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: it's a pro play. It's just like Pittsburgh. I really
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: want to take Pittsburgh against Miami, held my nose and
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: did it and again got rewarded for it. I guess
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: I gotta do it with the Cardinals. It's just it's
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: a smart number three and a half against the Vikings
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: team that they just can't blow teams out. They keep
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: every game close, doesn't know how good or bad you are.
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: So I like that play. I like it because I
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: just don't think you can underestimate the return of DeAndre Hopkins. Yeah, no,
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: he's been great. No one's threw two picks sixes before
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: before the half, I mean, and they made it a
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: ballgame the ended. The Cardinals are just bad. They are
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: a bad team. But I just I'm gonna keep getting
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: caught by this Viking team because like again, Miami should
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: have beat them out right and then even covering that game.
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: So maybe the Likings will be like the Giants, will
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: just keep catching me. Try and chase this, you know,
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: chase the dragon. But I gotta do it. I gotta
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: take the Cardinals here. Titans a very short road favorites
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: one and a half against the Texas. Right now, be
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: careful everyone, this is no brainer. Gotta take it right,
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: take what I gotta take. The number on Euston, it's there.
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: They're basically telling you Tannehill's hurt. That's what this number
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: is telling you. There's an injury to the Tennessee Titans.
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: This game was five five and a half, dropped all
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: the way down to one and a half. It's Tannell
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: has to be hurt. Like someone knows something. A professional
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: group has moved this number, taking a position and the
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: books reacted. So you can wait and we'll see what
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: the injury news is because I don't know how much
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: more this number is going to move. But it feels
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: like last week all over again. The Burros were all
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: over the Jets in the public was because of what
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: the Jets have been doing. At plus three plus two,
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: plus one and a half, Russell Wilson got out. They
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: moved it all the way to um what was of
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: minus two for the Jets. You could see that happen here.
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: But it's just an interesting pregame movement of like the
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: books are literally going to take the tickets and ninety
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: percent of the money on the Tennessee Titans. They're the
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: divisional team playing the worst team in football. Houston is
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: the worst team in football. I think we got agree
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: on that, so bizarre world like, the only explanation to
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: me is you've got to trust the books. They're not
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: here to give out free money before Halloween. They're laying
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: a trap. You want to be on the Texans side here.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: So I couldn't believe when I saw this number. Though
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: again I I saw it a five and a half
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: last week, reopened the app the Action app Um Sunday
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: night before going to bed, and I saw it was
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: down to one and a half, and I was like, Tannehill,
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: I know you got banged up in the game. Theyre
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: brought in Williams or Willis, but I haven't heard anything
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: else since then, So I don't know what's happening with
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: that line. To be honest, why aren't you saying why
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: don't you making this your Simon says, if you think
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: the number is gonna move, Simon says, is better right now.
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's gonna move. I think it's gonna move,
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: but I don't think it's gonna move into such a
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: way that's gonna really affect it out it like, yeah,
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: you're gonna bet Houston right now. I just don't see it,
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: being like, do you see Houston get to minus two
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: if Dan Hill's officially out? No? I feel like this
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: is the number though, Like I'm just waiting to see
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: what's gonna happen because I'm hoping you can maybe get
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: plus three if Dan Hill is cleared to play. Um,
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: that's how I'm gonna wait on, all right, commanders uh
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: plus three At the Colts, the sam Elinger era begins.
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: Taylor Henik Taylor made to bet like you got two
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: terrible quarterbacks, two teams no one cares about. It's a
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: corner TV game. How are you not bet in this game?
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: Any self respecting better must put money on this game.
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: And I was thinking about making this my sigmon says,
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: I got another one because this is gonna be the
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: most public side. I was hoping it was gonna be
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: Matt Ryan right at plus four. That was a gift
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: when it was Matt Ryan and at quarterback yea. And
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: not to have any faith in this kid, Sam, I'm
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: happy to fade him get the plus three. I didn't
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't have moved um the number that much. So
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: let's be honest, like, we'll see again. Man. Maybe Ryan,
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: Matt Ryan was what was holding together this team. I
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: just the guy had the most turnovers, the most sacks
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: across the board, the most interceptions, the most fumbled, most
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: sack player right now in football is Matt Ryan. So
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to do with it because I
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: think Chad Taylor where it's like the dog whatever. Who
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: if the culture the underdog, I would have taken the
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: Washington's underdog. I'll take them. These teams are interchangeable. Washington's
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: just slightly better on paper with what they have on offense.
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: But we'll see again. Jonathan Taylor, he has not gotten going.
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: Like that's like that's the thing right now with the
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: culture just waiting to see if he can get going.
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: Maybe that's why they're making their move or they really
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: are taking because again there's good there's five good quarterbacks
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: this year. They're owing two against Tennessee. I guess they're
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: taking up position and taking but it just the bizarre
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: to me. Again, you have Nick Foles as the backup. Now,
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: I don't really know what the culture doing here, but yeah,
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: I wanted to make this, Sigmon says, But again, I
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: think this is the number all week. But I'm gonna
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: grab it now anyway. Plus three But interesting, interesting, game
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: didn't get real? Why it moved the whole point off
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: the Matt Ryan News forty Niners visiting the Rams. Rams
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: are underdogs at home. It's a battle for two teams
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: that are gonna finish second to Gino Smith in the
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: Seattle Seahawks. I hope you're right. I hope you're right.
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, what was your first thought when you saw
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: this game? You finally take the Rams. That's what I
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: want to do too. We know, we know the history
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: of these two teams. Like again, I always go back
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: to it. I'll probably put the trend down on Thursday,
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: but I just don't. I don't know the exact numbers,
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: but it feels like every time in this position, Shane
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: Ann covers or he wins, Like it's just every single
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: time I know they got their number last in the
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: playoffs the Rams they won by three, But it's just
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: always these two teams play that the four nineers just
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: have always historically played them. Well. Um, so again I'm
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at a Los Angeles team that had a
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: big win against Carolina right there, get right game, had
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: a bye week another playing against the four Nite team
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: that just got embarrassed and blown out by the Chiefs.
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be the big public side, but I'll do it.
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: I'll drink the kool and I'll ride with the public. Again.
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: We joke all the time. Forty percent at the time,
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: they're right the public. This is one of them. To me,
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: I'll take the four nineers here is a short road favorite.
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: It feels gross, feels absolutely gross. Indivisional game. But just
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: playing against the trends and what I've seen, the four
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: Nights are really good. Again. They moved the ball at
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: will against that Chiefs team. They were just settling for
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: field goals while my Homes was putting up seven. And
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: again that's the Jimmy Jimmy Garoppolo effect. The guys just
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: we know he's capped, he's seeling his capped. But Deebo McCaffrey, Kittle,
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: I I can't get over how much Town is on
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: that FOURT nine years offense. So I gotta do it.
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: It gets a Rams team that, yeah, that's all fun
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: and good. You can beat up on Carolina. We've seen
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: you play other good teams and you just don't not
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: look good this year. When Christian McCaffrey gets comfortable and
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: can do the majority of snaps on offense, that team
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: is going to be a problem. What do you think
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: of that trade? Though probably not worth it, because when
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: when do running backs sort of continue to climb as
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey does or has at his age, especially coming
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: off of two years of injuries, and every single time
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: he carries the ball it looks like he could have
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: his head separated from his body or suffer an irreparable
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: hamstring injury or some kind of deep, you know, thigh contusion.
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: And we're like, I could people ask about it. I
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: feel like me had the same boat. It's like we
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: would never give up draft capital like that for an
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: aging running back who's been hurt the last two years years.
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: But I love it from the football standpoint of like
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: this is the dream, Like the Shanahan run scheme with
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey, who's just incredible again running, catching, passing. He
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: landed on Friday and learned enough plays to play a
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: bunch of snaps in that game. It was just it
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: was amazing. So as a fan of the four nineers,
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: I would hate it because it's like you literally are mortgage.
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: It kind of feels like you've mortgaged really your future
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: on this season and next season. But I love the
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: move from the standpoint of McCaffrey is incredible, and you
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: have him in a sing offense. They taking the Rams
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: approach and gone all in on this year, right. Maybe
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: they feel like their defense is so good. They've seen
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: how talented their defense is. They have you, like you said,
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: they have Kittle, they have Sweeney. Jimmy g is serviceable
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: enough if you put him in the right position, if
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: you give him that one running back in a weekend NFC. Yeah,
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: like this is our shot. So I can totally understand
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: why they did it. One more note the starting left
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: tackle No Bloom out for the season for this Rams team,
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: So jesus you know what major issues in the offensive line.
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: I'm skipping this game forty Niners Foxhel. I don't want
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: to go in the foxil with the forty Niners. That's
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: why you have to do it. It's it's a hard take.
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: You're taking a road favorite again in a divisional game.
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: I hate, I hate, I hate that. You gotta do
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: it all right, hitting Niners. We're the fossil. Let's clide
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: down into the foxhole. Forty Niners. Mus want and a
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: half foxhole. Uh, Giants on the road at the Seahawks.
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's a battle of NFC juggernauts. I think
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: you're sucking around. I know you've actually meant yeah, they
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: are shad no joke, no punch line there. These are
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: two of the best teams right now, and there are
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: bizarre a world. I said to me, But I can't
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: believe the Eagles are six and oh and in the
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: Week eight they're only half a game up in their division.
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: What is fucking happening. I don't understand anything anymore. Everyone
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: knows what mean chedd A're gonna do. We're gonna lose
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: more money, but this is what we do every week.
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: We will take the Seahawks every time. Give me minus
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: two and a half, give me minus three. I don't
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: know what's happening. I don't know how the Giants keep
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: doing it. But you have to assume this is a
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: good matchup for the Seahawks at home. But my god, Danny,
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: Danny Dimes on the road like anyone listening. If you
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: take him plus three, I can't knock you. Like this
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: guy keeps covering and he's even better on the road historically.
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: But it has to run out. Like again, the Seahawks
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: are a good team. Their all offense is good. Their
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: defenses really started playing well. Like the rookies they drafted.
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: It's crazy is on the same spot Bears drafted. Well
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: would you say I was gonna say Kenneth Walker Right now,
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: Kenneth Walker has the shortest odds for UH Offensive Rookie
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: of the Year right now Offensive Rookie of the Year
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: Kenneth Walker at vanduel Um plus two hundred. The next
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: is Breefe Hall at plus two fifty and he's out
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: for the year. So again, I I just look at
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks team and chat every week. Asked me like
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: when is it gonna fall off for Gino? And I
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: was right there with him where it's like, I know
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: we're playing with borrowed time right now, because like this
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: is this is crazy, like the books that finally put
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: up Gino Smith m VP os. I think he's a one,
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: but they finally hung him. He was never up there
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: all summer, all season. He hasn't been up there, so
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know. It's it's just it feels like a
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: player we have to make on the Seahawks short favorite
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: against a team that take out the luck rankings. I
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: know they're gonna be number one in luck rankings. The Giants,
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: it's just not sustainable. A team that's six and oh
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: or six and one and one possession games and anytime
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: they need to turnover they get it. Anytime they need
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: a big play from Daniel Jones or se Quant, they
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: get it. It's just it's bizarre where but these teams
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: happen every year. Last year with the Cowboys, the Cowboys
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: at this point where the one seed in the NFC
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: East in the NFC and they completely fell off the
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: second half of the year. Not saying that Giants are
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: gonna have that happen, because I really do believe in
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: the coaching, but it's just it's it's so hard to
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: win in this league. I just can't believe what they're
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: doing with the pieces there. Um again, their top three
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: receivers have been out as well. It's it's it's crazy
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: what Daniel Jones is doing. So I'm stepping in it.
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: But again and make this line minus four and a half.
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: I have to bet the value. I see the value
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: on the Seahawks. You're forgiving me minus two and a half.
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: I'll take it. Like again, the most public dog this
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: week to me, is probably gonna be in this Giants team.
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: The public just keeps betting them and winning. Why wouldn't
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: they do it? Here? Again, the line right now is three.
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: I don't know where you're seeing two and a half,
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: but I would still take three. Even then, you'll still
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: take it, Which means your simon said is if you
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: tell me your simon says, if you're going against Matt
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: Mitchell and the Buffalo Bills with the Green Bay Packers
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: and plus eleven and a half, man, that is just me. No,
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: I'm crazy. I'm not that crazy, even though I do
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: think this is probably the time to buy on Green Bay.
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: What do we talk about when when the Bills played
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: uh Pittsburgh many weeks ago. Josh Allen is a double diedge,
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: your favorite. He's six and one a t s in
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: his career. He beats the ship out of bad team
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: and he enjoys doing it. I love it, man, Mitchell,
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: didn't you guys just have a bye week. Yeah, we've
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: just spent two weeks having everyone tells for the best
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: team football. So yeah, I don't disagree that it might
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: be a time to fade, but just to stay away,
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: just to stay away situation. So what are we doing here?
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: Are we passing? So I was gonna say, this is
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: another opportunity where if you want to play safe, you
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: can just do Bill second half, because that's been cashing
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: this year, taking them second half on the spread. But again,
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: I'm on two big favorites this week. Ones the Eagles,
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: the other one is going to be the Bills. I
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: just I've learned my lesson on trying to take a
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: position again. Josh Allen and primetime games, especially primetime games
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: at home. He likes to show off of the crowd.
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: He loves Buffalo, he loves playing there. I don't see
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: how the Green Bay can move the ball against the
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: number one, number two, number three, best defense on football.
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: Depends on what rankings are going off of. They're the
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: best right now. The Bills. We just saw them absolutely
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: shutdown a Chiefs team that a few teams can like. There.
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: That wasn't just myhomes having a bad day. That was
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: brilliant scheme and putting your putting players in key positions.
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: The Bill's got it all going right now. They gotta
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: go on offense, they've gotta going on defense. I just
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: don't see how the bleeding stops you for green Bay.
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: And the craziest part is, I don't even know if
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: this If this game was thirteen and a half, I
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: don't even know if I would still take green Bay
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: at that number. Like you might have to get this
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: to fourteen for me to take green Bay. That's how
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: far these green Bay problems go. And maybe I'll be
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: eating my words if the green Bay can get the
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: running game established against Buffalo. But Buffalo has no glaring weaknesses,
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: like they just they'll take away whatever team wants to
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: do and that's it. Like, unless you're my homes, it's
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: hard to make these games close. So it's the only
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: teams I've really played. This Buffalo team well, are the
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: two of the best teams in football. Um or I
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: guess you could say Miami did as well. But I
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: just on paper, I just liked this Bill's matchup. I
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: really wanted to take green Bay just because they have
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: to turn around eventually. But after a loss to the
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: Giants in England a Losso home to the Jets, and
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: then I lost in Washington last week. I just can't
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: see them slopping the slide in Buffalo. There's just there's
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: too much going on for them to fix in this
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: amount of time. All Right, we're down to it. We're
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: down to the Battle of Ohio on Monday Night football,
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: the Bengals visiting the Browns. The Browns are three point
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: underdogs at home. I know what you're gonna say here,
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: so go ahead say it. Simon says, take the Browns,
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: no brainer. First bet I made when it came out
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: this week. I think I might have opened it three,
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: went up to three and a half. All the pros
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: hit it right away, right back down to three. Easiest
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: game of the week. Joe Burrow was godlike last week.
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: The public was very happy with Joe. Now you're getting
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: Joe in a primetime game, going to get to Brown's
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: team that I mean, they're looking like the worst, one
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: of the worst teams in football right now. What are they?
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: Two and six now two and five? They are bad.
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: They are a bad team right now. So going with
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: what I always say in a primetime game and divisional game,
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: a team that's getting none of the none of the bets,
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: none of the money. Those are usually my darlings. Um
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: the fact that it was three and a half. I
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: loved it. I've even seen what the public is doing
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: with this number yet, I just know what they're gonna do.
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: They're gonna love Joey b in this position. So you
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: can't wait if you want, if you can't if you
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: want to wait for the three and a half. I
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: just don't know if they're gonna it again because I
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: just see like the pros will just buy that number
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: every time. It's just too big of a number with
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: these teams. I'm telling you it sounds crazy. But since
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: he's not that much better, the biggest difference is right
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: Joe Brohen, We've seen that time and time again. He
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: is incredible. This is the definition of a trap game.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: Like again, I should have seen it coming last night
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: with that Patriots game. Chah, I was right, like we
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: should have known. But this is what the books do
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: that they have everyone line up these prime time games.
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: Everyone will throw this one at end of a teaser.
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: Everyone will take the moneyline of this Bangos team. Easiest
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: bet you'll make all year, and that's why again, this
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: is why don't watch games of sports books. It's a
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: lonely feeling being the only guy in their holding a
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: Browns ticket. I can promise you that. So this is
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: a bet at walk out of the book kind of
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: bet for me. I'm not gonna stay and watch, but
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: I love love this position of the Browns. It's a
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: rare opportunity to taking this Browns. I'll talk on Thursday.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: It might up being one of my bigger bets this year.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: But I just love this position of a by low
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: spot and sell high on this since he team and
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: as some people like to say, bet it and forget it, Yeah,
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: that's perfect example. This game is the bet it and
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: forget it bet and forget it. You better now that
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: you open up your book on one day and you're like,
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: oh nice, I want to hunt it on that game. Well,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: don't forget. It's a Monday game. So I don't even
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: know if I want to put it in the contest,
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: but it'll be interesting. It'll be in a half. Yeah. Alright,
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: So right now, the games that we've sort of identified
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: as our most confident as we sit here, Tuesday Jets
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: plus two and a half Falcons minus four and a half,
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: Lions plus three and a half, Seahawks minus three, Browns
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: plus three got a pretty long list of games that
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: that will review on Thursday. As Lions move foxhold forty
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: minus one and a half. Simon says, Browns plus three.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: Chat says Lions plus three and a half. We'll do
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: our big balls on Thursday. Survivor, all right, that sucks.
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: They were out. It's so brutal, was I mean, I
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: don't even know how to kind of contextualize alright, So
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: for the safest one if you haven't used them yet,
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: it feels like the bells. I was honestly gonna use
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: the landing here for me and Chat like, I felt
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: like it was a perfect time to fade the Carolina
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: team off a win with the Lanta at home, because
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: you're never really gonna use the lane again. So if
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: you want to know the safe play for me the Bills,
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: the I need to use this team to save the
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: Bills for Thanksgiving week, which is what most gonna have
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: to do. If you're in a certain contests for Survivor,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: I would take at Lanta. This is a nice, nice
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: time to get them out of the way. We've said
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: it all. If you've been listening on AMP, thank you
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: very much for joining us live. We're enjoying, uh, getting
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: to talk to people alive. It's really fun. If not,
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: we hope you will continue to download us from Apple, podcast,
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: from Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts. I am Chad Moman,
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: He's Simon Hunter. Our producer is Matt Mitchell. Don't forget
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: rate reviews, subscribe, use five stars, say what if you
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: want feedback is a gift. Until next time, and love
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: you