Latest / Best of the NFL Podcast Network / Week 2 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

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Week 2 Picks with Cynthia Frelund · Best of the NFL Podcast Network

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're not feeling great about
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: that Lions to the super Bowl prediction.
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: I'm Greg Rosenthal.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Here in the Chris Westling podcast studio with my friend
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Cynthia Freeland for our weekly pick segment. It used to
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: be called man versus Machine, but we thought that was
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: unfair to Cynthia, who is a living, breathing woman with emotions,
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: says she's not a machine.
• 0:30
  Speaker 3: Emotions. Where are those?
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Your computer model doesn't have emotions? And that's what really
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: is nailing these picks for you week after week. It
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: was me who picked the Lions to the super Bowl,
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: and I'm feeling a little uneasy. I even rode with
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: them last week against the Packers. That's one of the
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: reasons why I have a losing record so far on
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: the season. I went one and two, and yes, if
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: you're watching on YouTube, we love you the YouTube audience
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: big for this show. On one and two, Cynthia, you
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: went two and one. I had the line. As I mentioned,
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: I also lost on the Giants. Terrible pick there. My
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Jaguars came through for me. You were on both sides
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: of crazy comebacks. You got the bills to help you out,
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: but the Bears let you down in the fourth quarter,
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: and then you also had the bucks.
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: So you start off two.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: In one and then I do scribble all those yeah,
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: you know teams that the app. Last week the scribbles
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: went three and two. We're going to keep track unofficially.
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: Well, scribbles are like where it's at.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: Last year, the scribbles were good. Those were the extra picks.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Today I only have two extra picks. I want to
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: start with you, though, you get to go first because,
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: as everyone knows, your model nailed the Super Bowl prediction
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: before a year ago. You won this competition a year ago,
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: and you went too and one last week, so you go.
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: For and my super Bowl picks won their first games.
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: So that's good.
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: Well was it this year?
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: Lls over Eagles?
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: Okay?
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so I mean.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: Those defense got something to work.
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: I feel great about it. But they're they're both one
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: and o. Then that's all I care about, you know,
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: one one week at a time. Greg, Okay, let let's start.
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: I'm going to see spicy.
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: I want to me.
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: Look, I'm gonna keep this one pretty pretty boring and neutral.
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: I think Cincinnati as three and a half is not
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: I don't like the half. I don't care. I have
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: them winning by six. You know, I'm a pretty conservative modeler,
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: so I think Cincinnati wins by more than three and
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: a half points at home against the Jacks.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: When you say you're a conservative model, or maybe explain
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: to the listeners what that means.
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: So you can put a lot of volatility into when
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: you when you model in code like this, you can
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: put a lot of volatility into it, like you can
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: wait different things in with give it lots of different weights,
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: so it could you know, like, oh, you know, you know,
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: what's a good example when you watch some some other
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: networks have like the the win probability sure, and when
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: you see a win probability go from ninety nine to
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: the other team winning more than once in like a
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: lot a lot of games, then they're modeling not conservatively enough.
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: They're a little loose.
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: They're they're playing fast and loose with their model fast
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: because it really should. If something really is ninety nine percent.
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: Your numbers are tight.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: That's why when we pick all the games and all
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: the scores on Game Debut, which is on Apple Network
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: every Friday, it's very rare for you to have more
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: than a ten point game.
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: You always have it, you know, pretty close.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: And that makes sense because if you run all the
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: outcomes that I said, this is going to be the
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: first time this year and I do not like doing this.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: Who were on the other side, but I only had
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: two picks that I was definitely taking. My model is
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: extremely valatable. It's vibes based. No, it's it's eyeball test based.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: It's how I believe in the teams and the players
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: and what I've seen based and that all leads me,
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: with no statistical modeling, to picking the Jags plus three
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: and a half. Now, your model takes emotion out of
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: the equation. Maybe I'm just too happy that the Jags
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: gave me an easy Sunday a week ago when I
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: took them over the Panthers. You're like, take a more
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: interesting game. No, we want winners. I think one of
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: us is going to be a winner on this one.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: I think they guarantee one of us wins.
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: That is true.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: It's unfortunate we're guaranteeing a one in one between the
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: two of us because I want a spolt to do well.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: I thought they were cohesive in terms of their running game.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: When I watched their offensive line, I thought Oh wow.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: That is a really well coached offensive group who struggled
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: last year running the ball and their offensive line struggled,
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: and week one you could see it. And then on
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: the other side of the ball, I see really good
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: pass rushers Josh Heinz, Allen Trayvon Walker, you got arc
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Armstead in the middle. And I see a Bengals offensive
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: line that didn't play great last week. The Bengals offense
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: in general wasn't great. I'm going to pick this game
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: straight up for the Jaguars on game debut where you
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: don't have to do that here, but that extra half
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: a point, don't you have a like a slang word
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: for that.
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: The hook? The hook?
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it hooked me like that extra half a point.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: It's like, okay, I'm making this one of my picks
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: because I think they can win.
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: Straight up.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: I think these two teams are relatively even. I'm taking
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars plus three and a half.
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: Wow, Okay, well, I mean look here here are I'll
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: just give you my quick points on why my mole's
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: on the other side of that number one Jamar Chase
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: in games when when he's following not having an output
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: a sub thirty yard output. It's like one hundred and
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: thirteen yards as his.
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: Average and the following game.
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, the following and not to say and that's not
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: the reason for it, it's because of what that actually means.
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: It means they rethink the game plan, they go back
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: to the drawing board. Plans BCD didn't work. I still
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: saw something that was great with that Noah offense touchdown
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: from Joe Brow. It was a blitz. It was on
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: a blitz, and Joe Burrow was still incredible against the blitz.
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: So this is something where they started slow. They always
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: start slow, we get it, but.
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: They were trying not to this year.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: It's all they ever talked about in the preseason, all
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: this stuff, and then they come out and they add
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: one hundred and under one hundred and fifty yards against
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: the Browns and saky puppies.
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: We get it.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's part of that is part of my reasoning.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: And I don't know how much your model is obvious
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: baking in their historical greatness on offense overall compared to
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: just what you saw Week one, or maybe their historic
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: struggles early in the year.
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: I am leaning a little.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: Bit on what I saw by the Jaguars defense, and
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: it might end up being misleading because they were playing
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: the Panthers, but what I saw out of them was
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: a creative group with Anthony Campanile is the new defense coordinator,
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: and I just like what I saw Jordan Lewis and
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Tyson Campbell. I think their secondaries not great, but it
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: might not be a big negative like it used to
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: be in one.
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: Way to look real stupid with your secondary play Jamar
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: Chase T. Higgins and company.
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: That's like this there.
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: You know, I'm not suggesting that they're not good, but
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: I think we saw maybe over index of looking very
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: good last week, and now they're probably gonna I mean.
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: They're gonna come back to the past.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: All I need is this Jaguars running game, which I
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: think is gonna be good against a pretty lackluster Bengals defense.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: In my mind, all I gotta need is just to
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: keep keep up in it in a little bit of
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: a score fest. So it could be twenty seven to
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: twenty fourd you know what, even if the time is win,
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: that hook I win.
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: So we'll see.
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: I hope it comes down to three, because that's just funny.
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: If I'm gonna lose, I only want to lose my
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: third like if it's up, if it's on the hook.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: All right, So that's why we've already knocked that one
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: pick each crazy you go, you go for your second pick.
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: So I'm just trying to decide how spicy to be
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: here because I know we had our production meeting for
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: our game days. Sure it gives it away our picks
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: a little bit, but these are these should be your favorites.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: You don't need to go spicy. Do the ones you're
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: the most confident, no matter who they are.
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: I mean, if I'm going most no, because that's then
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: I'm picking things. No, no, No, We're gonna We're gonna pick
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: somes that I like the most. How about that?
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: Sure?
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: I think New England wins interesting beats Miami interest. So
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: if you're gonna want to give me a point and
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: a half, I will take that point and a half
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: because Miami favorite at home by one and a half point.
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: New England. Listen, I picked them last week. They burned me.
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: But so weird things happened. One Drake may took conservatively.
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: I think he threw the ball like three hundred and
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: fifty five times Twitter seven passing yards. He had the
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: most passing attempts that he that we've seen him have.
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: We didn't see him us as like seven seven rushing
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: yards seven rushing yards. So maybe maybe the theme is
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: seven because the Bengals had seven yards of offense and
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: the second happen, I'm making them and Drake May had
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: seven rushing yards in this last matchup. But this is
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: something where yards off of scrambles are something where Drake May,
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: you know, between I think it was week week eight
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: and or we eight and eighteen or me, he literally
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: led the league in scrambling yards whenever he whence he
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: became the starter last year? So I think we used
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: number one that number two the swing pass to Traveon Henderson.
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: What does Josh McDaniels love to do? Swing pass, swing pass, swing?
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: But that's all we ever see. Why didn't we see
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: those last week? I don't know Travan Hunderson can catch
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: the ball. I think they figure out a way to
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: make the run game, even if it's a run by
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: proxy of short passes, fine, still short yardage game. I
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: think it's gonna be much approved.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Look, I'm on your side with this one, and it
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: wasn't gonna be one of my picks just because.
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: These are on my side.
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: Team.
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's winning.
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: I mean I have New England winning.
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: Yes, I mean it's great news.
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: I mean this is great news. Is it really?
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: I went on into last week with the other if
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: you count the extras, you know, is it?
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: He did great?
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: Five? I think it's so. Their running game really struggled
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: last week.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: I think that was part of the reason why Drake
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: May just looked a little jumpy uneven.
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: I don't know if it was due May.
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: Watch that Daniel Jones Daniel Jones fotash like two rushing
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: touchdowns for Daniel Jones, I can at least score one.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: I think he could. And that Dolphins defense has a
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: lot of talent in it. There's a lot going on
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: with this Dolphins team. My issue only with this game
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: was just these two teams. I don't know what to
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: make of them early, and so I'm just gonna stay anyway.
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: I believe though, in a different team in that division,
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: the Jets.
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: The Jets, you think they win, I mean, they just
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: keep it closer.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Than what they are. They are underdogs. That's six and
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: a half points, six and.
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: A half points.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: I believe, justin fields looked so good last week. He
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: was calm, he was accurate, he was composed, and their
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: running game was destroying the Pittsburgh freaking Steelers like pre
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: Saul eighteen yards, pre Saul fourteen yards.
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: I love them up front. What did the Bills do
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: last week?
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: I know they were playing the Baltimore Ravens, but they
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: gave up two hundred and thirty eight yards on the ground.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: Many I think they were They've been searching on defense
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: throughout training camp and the preseason for players in the
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: back end, especially that can hold up in terms of
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: the safety position and tougher players in terms of stopping
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: the run. If I could pick almost any other team
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: in the AFC, they wouldn't want to see this week.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: It's the running and maybe even a little gunning New
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: York Jets. Now, yes, I am taking them to win
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: this game, which is a desperate pick in week two.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: I'm already like trying to chase you on the picks.
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: I don't know why.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: I know they're almost a touchdown underdog that you could do,
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: you know, with the odds and whatnot. Take them to
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: win over on you know, straight up. But I feel
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: really good this this show is only about the number
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: six and a half points for this Jets team. I'm
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: not overly confident in the Jets defense at all. I
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: think it's gonna be a high scoring game where where
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: both running games get a lot done.
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: I think the Jets keep it close.
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: James Cook is streaking, right, He's had five games in
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: a row with a rushing touch out. No, I'm just
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: curious if you think he gets an ansome Yeah, yeah,
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: I think he keeps said streaking.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: Their offensive line is awesome, and you talked about that
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: last week a lot with the Tiris, Torrents and the continuity.
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's underrated.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Because people are like, you know, Josh Allen's making it
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: happen with this ragtag group around him. In terms of
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: the receiver, first of all, again Coleman's a first round pick,
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: like early second like he's getting better.
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: Clear secure is good.
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: I mean nine of them each. They had nine targets
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: all three of their main wide receivers, nine tarists.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I would point out like that offensive line
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: is a weapon, and if so, it's kind of like
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Mahomes three years ago, in that first year without Tyreek Hill.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: You give a quarterback at the peak of his powers,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: a great offensive line. You don't necessarily need incredible weapons,
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: and that's why Jets to win the game doesn't feel
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: like amazing. But I think the Steelers were very lucky
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: to win that game last week. I think the Jets
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: have something a little special and they're going to be
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: fighting hard to avoid that zero and two start to
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: this season.
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: So I believe in my New York Jets. I've adopted them.
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: Adopted them.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, I had them going to the playoffs as
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: my seventh seed. This is something the model wouldn't do,
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: which is get too attached to your preseason.
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you think that's that's the thing, like sometimes, I mean, listen,
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: attachment is a big deal. But and it's fun. It's
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: why we become fans. But you have to be able
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: to separate your picks from your attachment. Otherwise, you know,
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: we're gonna have to take all your little chips and
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: pull them off.
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: Okay, okay, but if you but just look at the
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: numbers from a week ago.
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: I'm not saying the Jets aren't great, but I'm saying
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: you can't overly you know, you have to, like, let
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: next play, every every player will tell you whether it's
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: good or yeah, you can't use let you know, you
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: just got to be it's gotta be, you know, disciplined,
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: the discipline of of of chill.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: The Jets what they put on the field last week
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: as a product to me, that looked like a seven
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: seed type of team for what it's worth. And this
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: is just the numbers d v O A. You know,
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: I think you respect dv o A. But maybe it's
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: I you know, I'm not. It's a rivalry a little
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: bit there in the numbers game, trying to argue they
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: got the Gets as the tenth best team after last
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: week and the Bills were down in the twenties.
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: Example, Sea, it's I like, I like your conviction. I'm
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: not saying not to be a fan. I'm just saying
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: to separate is fan time from this is math t Yeah,
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: that's it. That's all that. I have to say that
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: to myself too. I have to code this stuff without
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: any names on it, because teams that pay me money,
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: like the freaking Broncos in the preseas, I tend to
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: like them better.
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: Right now we're getting the real stuff.
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: But I love this, But but I have to do
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: it with things I feel very agnostic towards That's how
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: I code it. So I don't know if this year
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: because I'm a psychopath, it's different types of dogs, huh so,
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: And I do have thoughts on that, but I'm not
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: you know, the Yorky beating that whatever, you know, the
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: German Shepherd. I'm going to take the German Shepherd.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: And I do think and you'll see this with my
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: next pick too, well you want mind pick yet I do.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: I do think there is something about the you know,
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: the team's trying to avoid be you know, and one
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: the bills are coming off like a historic, amazing win
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: at home.
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: Is there is there any little not trap?
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: But just is that like I did a little more emotional,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: you know, like it's a little bit of a letdown.
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: All right, give me your last pick.
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: All right, Well we talked about how I get emotional
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: about teams. There's these two teams that have actually emotions
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: on both sides that I like. I love the Broncos
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: luet Arumo is one of my very favorite humans. Like ever,
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: so they're playing.
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: Each other like how high on the list? I mean,
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: that's a lot humanity. I mean I don't really like
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: a lot of so pop thirty.
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: Oh for clue. Oh wow, yeah, so he's above me.
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: No, he's not above you.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: I would like to see that ranking because you know,
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: thirty thirties, that's that's pretty lofty praise.
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: All right, but what does that mean you're picking him?
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: No, picking the Broncos. It's two and a half points.
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: The reason, just like you talked about, it's the two
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: and a half to me Bnicks four turnovers. Now you're
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: talking about Sean Payton. What does Sean Payton? What do
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: you think happened to bo Nicks after turning the ball
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: over that many times last game? I'm gonna guess it
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: wasn't pretty.
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: It just started running the ball essentially, you mean in
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: the game.
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: Or like when they were watching it back on the Like.
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: My point is is there's a reason why some of
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: these Hall of Fame court coaches keep their jobs for
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: so long. It's because they don't like these are the
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: types of things like this crap doesn't happen again, Like
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: it doesn't now. Mostly the reason I'm picking them is
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: because the Denver Bronco defense is the best unit in
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: this game, and it's not close. And the second reason,
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: Sharvarius war it is very unlikely to play, which helps
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: Bonick's ability.
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: To not turn the ball, and that's entered into the model.
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: No ward at this point injuries. Right now it's ward
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: fifty percent because I don't know if he's going to
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: play or not. I can switch it closer to the time.
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: But even with a ward one hundred percent, it's still
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: three points in favor of the Broncos.
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: I would put word at close to zero percent at
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: this point because if you miss practice early in the
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying you're in the protocol, so that's even
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: more in your favor. Yeah, I'm with you on this one.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: I struggled with it. The heart of it all. Likes
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: the cult story.
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: I think they're of course you felt like the cold
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: story too.
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: I think the defense is going to be difficult for
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: teams to go against if you're much improved. But ultimately
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: I agreed with every single point that you made, so
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: I just won't repeat it. But that defense, yeah, we'll
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: see it. We'll see how real the Danny Dimes renaissance is. Okay,
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: So I wrote down sometimes I got a lot of
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: games I really like. Yep, sometimes I just have four
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: that was this week. So I gave you my top two.
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: Four is the minimum?
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, well no, I don't know. Three. No, some weeks
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: it's like two, and you're really forcing it. This time.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: I have really four I really liked, and then there
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: was a pretty big yep gap. There's like one more
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: I'll throw in there. But so maybe you can help
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: me because I'm curious which side of either the Falcons
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: plus three and a half or the Seahawks plus three
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: year on. And you might be opposite me on both
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: of these, but I like them both for different reasons.
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: I'm leaning towards the Falcons one. Actually I have both
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: of those. Yeah, you agree with me?
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah, So the one I would technically agree with you,
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: like looking at my model right now. The one I
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: technically agree with you more on is what is it?
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: Minnesota is at three and a half. I have Minnesota
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: winning by three, so I close if that's a hook there,
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: But then I have a two point win in favor
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: of Pittsburgh only, so I technically agree with you a
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: little bit more on Seattle very close though extremely I mean,
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: we're this is tricky.
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: Because I'm gonna go with my gut and go with
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: that extra half point. The hook is getting me again,
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: and go with the Falcons plus three and a half
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: as my official third pick. I like both these games,
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: though for different reasons. I'll run through them both because
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: that would have been one of my written down.
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah A to the extra game, which means it's going.
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: To hit okay.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: I think their quarterback is better right now Atlanta. You
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: know Michael Pennox versus JJ McCarthy. I just think he's
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: more mature. He's showed more. We'll see where McCarthy is.
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: I think the Atlanta secondary showed me a little something
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: in Week one that I'm excited about.
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: A couple of rookies, Billy Bowman and Xavier Watts.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: Xavier Watts really played well in that game, and I
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: thought aj Rell was kind of looking peak aj Terrell.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: He's a guy who had an all Pro season, but
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: he's had injuries. He struggled a little bit last week.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: I thought he looked awesome against the Bucks.
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: He did.
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: That was a game where if you play that game
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: over the way it played out, like the numbers would
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: tell you that the Falcons really outplayed the Bucks. But
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: they ended up losing that game. And then this is
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: the dumb part of me why I'm leaning towards it.
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: I do sometimes look at the two teams and just think, well,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: they look like one to one teams to me. You know,
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: neither one of these teams deserve to be zero and two.
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: Neither one of these teams deserve to be two and oh.
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: And we see this a lot in the NFL, that
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: a lot of times teams respond well to losses. And
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: so three and a half points is what does it
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: for me. I don't really feel strong about the Falcons
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: winning in particular, but I like that three and a
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: half points based on everything I saw Raheem Morris year
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: two with his defense they cover.
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm I'm.
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: With you on that. My my asterisks on this one
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: that just like the little note that could adjust it,
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: but would adjust more in favor of Atlanta is if
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: we see the health of like a Is Darnell movie.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: He sounds like he's playing right, he's practicing. We don't
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: know for sure, but that's you know, it's a good one. Again,
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: that's just an asterisk, but it just reinforces your point.
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: And no Blake Cashman for the Vikings, that is confirmed.
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: He's on in deserve and I think that could be
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: a problematic spot for them. It's like I've in pace
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: and you could attack the middle of the field there.
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: Kyle Pitts look pretty good. Seattle to me is more
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: of a I just think they match up well. I
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: think all those zone runs that Jets had against the
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: Steelers last week, the Seahawks can do that. I think
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: the pass rush against Aaron Rodgers, who did a lot
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: of really good things last week, but he didn't handle
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: the pass rush well at all. He took four sacks
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: and and kind of was panicked when he was under pressure.
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: I think they could get pressed by right. So three points.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: I really liked that game too. Like I said, I
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: liked for a lot this week. But I will go
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: with Atlanta officially as my as my third in the
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: Seattle plus three as my little extra. And uh, just
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: because I'm feeling generous to the listeners, Brown's eleven and
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: a half, I'll take. I'll take the Browns to cover
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: that eleven and a half. I'm feeling a little spicy.
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: I thought they like Joe Flecko.
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: I mean, you're going to try to bring the Browns
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: in the organization you ripped away from, like one of
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: the best football towns in the world, and you do
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: your thirtieth anniversary of the franchise celebration with everyone coming
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: in on the day the Browns come into town. I mean,
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: that's certainly intentional. And I see you and I think
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: that's bad football. God juju. I mean it's definitely something
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: like a model can account for that.
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: No, the model doesn't know what that means. But but ultimately,
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: I mean I didn't realize they were doing that. Yeah,
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: it's it's who's in charge over there.
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's a rivalry. But that's honestly part of
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: the reason why I like the Browns in this game.
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: I thought their rookies looked great last week, and I
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: just think they're going to be a little better this season.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: And it's a divisional matchup where there's a lot of
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: familiarity and so.
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: Hey, it's a lot weak.
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: They were in a half Allens and and the Ravens
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: have had vulnerability to twelve personnel to who tied in sets.
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: So there are there are reasons to support your findings.
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: Little Harold fan and junior action. And yeah, I also
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: his name is Harold.
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: I love that. I don't know why. I don't know
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: anyone named Harold, But I like, I love the idea
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: that his name is Harry.
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: I love that he's a forty four playing tight end
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: and full back. There aren't many true like they call
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: people jokers, Like he's a real joker. He's moving in
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: every position. I saw him blow open a hole on
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: a touchdown run on the goal and that was cool.
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: That was why he was one of my winners on
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: the Extra Picks last week plus five and a half.
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: All right, that's enough, we got to get down for
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: our show game debut. You can check out Cynthia on
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: her YouTube page numbers game each and every week if
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: you want even more picks from Cynthia really getting deep
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: into the numbers every single game. And she's got a
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: new show too with CBS analyst Logan Ryan.
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: So everyone Logan's great.
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: Check out that Logan is really really good on the broadcast.
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: I listen and with you that is it. We will
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: hopefully do even better for all.
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: Well, this week it'll be the last time to hear
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: from us in the feed until Sunday.
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: Night when we are back a recap show is.
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: The buildings here now?
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: No, I will be staying until Sunday night.
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: Got it? For all those games, we Jordan, rod rig
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: Patrick Clayborne and nixt Ship see you Sunday night.