Latest / Foul Territory / Jim Bowden on Anthony’s bargain deal + What if Buxton moved? + Fangraph playoff projections

Transcript

Jim Bowden on Anthony’s bargain deal + What if Buxton moved? + Fangraph playoff projections · Foul Territory

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Front off sunfiltered time resident GM, Jim Bowden joining us
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: right now, and we have business right at the top. JB.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Roman Anthony and the Red Sox get it done on
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: the extension. I'm sure you're pleased with this one. Your
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: instant reaction.
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: I cannot believe Roman Anthony left that much money on
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: the table. I'm actually in a state of shock. I
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: don't understand how you can sit there and watch Ronal
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: Kunya Junior and watch Vladimir Gerro junior and see the
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: difference between the two, right, I mean, right now in
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: the bank, Vladimir Guro Junior is guaranteed five hundred and
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: seventy million, eight hundred thousand earnings. Ronaldikunya Junior, similar talent,
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: should be paid similarly, has one hundred million dollars. So
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: there's a difference of four hundred and seventy million between
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: the two. And Roman Anthony just signed a Ronda Cunya deal.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Ronal Kunya got eight years one hundred Roman Anthony's doing
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: eight years, one hundred and thirty. I don't get it,
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: I really don't now. Matt Rodriguez negotiated the deal for
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: Frontline Athlete Management and I understand, if you're twenty one
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: years old, I understand it's really hard to turn down
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty million. I also understand that he'll
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: be a free agent to get at age twenty nine,
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: and he'll have a chance to get that seven hundred
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: and eight hundred million dollar deal by then. I get that.
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: I get the thinking behind it, but not when there's
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: that much money on the table. The last two years
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: of this deal alone, he left at least one hundred
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: million on the table, one hundred million, which is almost
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: exactly what he's signing for a one thirty. So, you know,
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: kudos to Craig Breslo and to John Henry and theo
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: Epstein and Tom Warner and everyone else that was able
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: to do this, because it's going to really help you
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: down the road. I love that Alexanthopolis did it with Akunya.
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: I love it from the club side. A boy, can
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: you imagine what Scott Boris is thinking right now? My goodness,
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: scud Bars doesn't have him.
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: Skud Bars doesn't have him. Jim, So, what was your
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: job before you became a before Well you would tell
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: but that's a different story. But there's there's a long
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: list of guys that didn't sign that extension with Boris
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: and didn't make the money either, so you can go
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: both ways. Here's my question for a Jim. Since you
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: have the sport coat over the hoodie, which is an
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: informal formal look, which I kind of dig. I'm not
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: gonna lie because I'm jealous. But before you were a
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: TV star in a radio star, what was your job
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: in Major League Baseball?
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: Well, I was a cenior vice president general manager of
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: Major League Baseball.
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: So if you would have gone to a player that
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: you weres on your team and said, I can lock
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: this guy up and take money.
• 2:46
  Speaker 4: From him that he might might earn down the road, would.
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: You be happy with that or would you say, no, no, Roman,
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: don't sign this because I'm the GM and I just
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: watch the best for you.
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: Aj you know the answer. I was so happy.
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: On the table.
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: Of course, I would have liked to have signed Anthony
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: for ninety million instead of one hundred and thirty. And
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: I would have tried everything to do that because that
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: was the hat or the sports jacket I was wearing
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: at the time. Yeah, it's the job. I get it.
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: At the same time, you know, I like what Atlanta
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: did with Acuna on the club side, I didn't like
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: what it does for Acunya. I get it. I mean
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: now I'm in a neutral spot right now. I'll just
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: tell you the way it is. And Anthony left too
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: much money on the table he did. I'm happy for
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox. This was a huge This is the
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: best move Craig Breslo has made since he got the job,
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: to be honest.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: And the Red Sox in general have been locking up
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: some of their youngsters. I mean, this is the guy
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: that they're most excited about from a prospect perspective, no doubt,
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: and now you're seeing it in the big leagues. I'm
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: going to take a different turn on this one with
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: JB because you're neutral now and you know everything about
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: obviously how these deals get done because you did it
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: for a long period of time. Can you put your
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: agency hat on and tell me what you would say
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: to Roman Anthony to try and prevent him from taking
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: on a deal like this, because the agent's job is
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: to communicate any offer that's on the table, And for
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox they're probably like, okay, Corbyn, Kyle, that
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: was one eleven. We got to blow pass that let's
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: get to one thirty. What's the line where we tell
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: a twenty one year old one hundred and thirty million
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: dollars and he takes it. It's it's tough for a
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: twenty one year old to turn down that kind of money,
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: even if he can make hundreds of millions more.
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I would show him the algorithm and
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: the amount of position star young position players that got
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: injured and career ended, which is a very very small number.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: The odds are very very thin. And then I would
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: show him how much money he'll make through the salary
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: arbitration process, right, and a contract like this, he's going
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: to be at the top end of the three class,
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: the four class, the five class. But then I would
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: show him what he's giving up right in years seven
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: and eight in this deal, I would show him what
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: Guerrero just signed for. I would show him that Guerrero
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: next year will make forty million and ron Lkun is
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: going to make seventeen. That's just a fact. And they're
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: both equal talent. They should both be paid very similarly,
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: and they're not, so I would I would go through
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: that process, and then I would remind him that, you know,
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: Soto just got seven hundred and sixty five in the
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: open market. And then I would show him that Guerrero
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: got five hundred million on the open market, and I
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: would tell him that you're going to profile better than Guerrero.
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: I can't put you with Sodo yet. I think you
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: have the potential of being Soda or better. But I'll
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: put you between the two. And so I'm gonna show
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: you that sure you're getting one hundred and thirty million,
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: but you're leading at least one hundred million years seven
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: and eight. And if you want to do this, I
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: get it. But what is the risk if you go
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: through the system? Soto turned down four hundred and fifty
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: million from the Washington Nationals, turned it down, They traded him. Okay,
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: what did he end up with? So I just think
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: for a position player, in particular, an outfielder, when we
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: look at the last thirty years, the odds of him
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: having an Albert Bell, you know, hip injury the end
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: of career is very small. And you know, I would
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: tell him, hey, let's try to do a six year
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: deal without giving up free agency. I'm more than happy
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: to do that, but let's not give up those free
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: agent years, or if we give them up, we gotta
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: get forty to fifty million a year, because Guerrero's forty
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: is gonna be fifty by the time he gets there, right,
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: I don't want to give that up. I can't, and
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: so that'll be my pitch to him at the end
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: of the day and then we'll see what the Red
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: Sox say. But you know, I really have a problem
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: year seven and eight. I'm not giving it up. If
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: I'm the agent representing a superstar player like Roman Anthony.
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: There's other players I would do it with, but not
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: a player of this stature. FT fan.
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• 7:52
  Speaker 3: Last thing on this before you let you go. Does
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: the impending labor strife possibility affect this in anyway? Because
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: the owners keep saying we want a salary cap, right,
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: the players keep saying we're not gonna get a salary
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: cap now. If they're somehow there becomes something in the middle,
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: whether it's a harder cap that what we technically have now, players'
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: earnings might not be unlimited like they were with Sodo
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: and Guerrero. Do you think you look at it from
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: that standpoint and say, well, if this happens, we might
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: not be able to get to five hundred plus million.
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, No, I definitely don't look at it that way.
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: And I respect the players' union and the people that
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: are involved. They're not gonna allow a system that's gonna
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: stop the star players from getting paid. They're not gonna
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: allow what has happened with the draft happened, and I
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: can't imagine with a strong player leadership that's there, I
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: can't imagine them allowing a system. Look, we have a
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: parody issue in this game that has to be fixed.
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: We need the smaller markets to be able to spend
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: more money to be more competitive. I get it, but
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: you can't. The players are not gonna allow. The union
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: is not gonna allow all all of a sudden, the
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: players not make what they deserve and get paid. I mean,
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: remember the percentage that players get is a lot less
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: than it was seven years ago and ten years ago.
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: They're not even getting their their fifty percent share or
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: more whatever you want to argue they deserve. So I just,
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: you know, again, I don't think it's a factor. Aj,
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: I understand where you're coming from. I just don't have
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: fear of those kind of things. Every time we have
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: a labor you know, disagreement or it's coming up everyone's
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: going to talk about work stoppages. You know, since Rob
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: Manford's been there, there hasn't been any work stoppage. And
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: those of us that lived through ninety four ninety five,
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: we're not doing that again. They're not gonna do it again.
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: They can talk about it. You know. It's just like
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: in the NFL with Micah Parson saying he wants to trade.
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: He doesn't want to trade, he wants his contract. He
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: wants to be the highest paid non quarterback in football,
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: and all this dialogue. It happens. The Bryce Harper rob
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: Banford thing. That's just negotiations. We're gonna have a deal
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: that works. Clubs aren't going to get what they want.
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: Players are gonna hopefully work hard to get the minimum
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: up and hopefully work hard to get the smaller markets
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: to be more competitive, and maybe work a little bit
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: harder on revenue sharing. And maybe we we you know,
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: toughen the soft cap a little bit, but not to
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: the extent where it's gonna affect star players from making
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: the money they deserve. My opinion, I got.
• 10:21
  Speaker 6: A question for you. We're not letting you go just yet.
• 10:23
  Speaker 6: You can let your agent hack go off, but have
• 10:25
  Speaker 6: you put your GM hat back on.
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: All right?
• 10:27
  Speaker 6: If you're if you're Jed Hoyer, are you dealing with
• 10:30
  Speaker 6: the Nats anymore? Do you just get a sense of
• 10:32
  Speaker 6: this kind of bad faith with the Soroka dealer? What
• 10:34
  Speaker 6: is your take on all this?
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: All right? So my take is clear and concise on this. Okay,
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: I go by the rulebook. It's up to the asany
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: club to do their homework on the medicals. It's their fault.
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: That's not the club. What the clubs do, and this
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: is this is and look, I got under similar criticism
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: when I traded Gary Macjeski to the Cincinnati Reds back
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: in the day, and people accuse me because he got
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: over there and he had issues. This is what I do.
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: Let the doctors talk to each other, share all the
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: medical information, let the other side exactly know what's going
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: on with every single player, and then it's up to
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: the team trading for the player to make that call. Now,
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: anyone that's watched Soroka's career knows his shoulder issues. I've
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: never gone away. Anyone that watched his last few starts
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: are the velocity has gone down. He didn't look right,
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: and the Cubs decided to do it. Anyway, that's on
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: Jed Hoyer. That was a risk he took, which was
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: you know, he took it, okay, whatever I mean. I
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: thought it was kind of I thought they needed to
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: go bigger, but they Jed got the contract before the deadline,
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: which okay, I got security. I don't want to trade
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: all my kids now. I would have waited if I
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: was an owner and signed Jed after the trade deadline,
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: because I want you to go for it. I want
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: you to make a bigger move than Mike Soroka, please.
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: So anyway, it's all on Jed, though, one hundred percent
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: on Jed, and he's owning it and he needs to fair.
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: Enough, Jim, how many times did you trade for or
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: pick up a guy that you thought was underperforming? And
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna use Andrew Vaughan as an example, like how
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: much does a change of scenery really do for a player?
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: And to front offices look at that and say, man,
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: if we could just get this guy out of wherever
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: they're at and put him in a more positive culture
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: with a winning culture, that they actually performed Because since
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: Andrew Vaughn's been with the Brewers, he's been the MVP
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: of baseball.
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he has been. That's a great, great point. So
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: we spend a lot of time in front offices concentrating
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: on players that we feel are underperforming with other teams,
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: and we get with the evaluators, the scouts, the development people,
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: the analytic people, and you get everybody together to say,
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: how do you fix this guy? If we trade it
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: for this guy, can we fix it? You know? And
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: the other thing is complicated. You know, we're not talking
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: about players. We're talking about human beings. Right, Is a
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: human being going to do better with a change of scenery?
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: Do we think if he came into our environment he
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: would be able to go to the next level? And
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: then vice versa. You have to be concerned, you know,
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: Jake Bird goes from the last place Rockies to the Yankees.
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: Pitching for a last place team is a lot difer
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: than pitching in New York City for the New York Yankees.
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: The pressure is different, the vibe is different, the lifestyle
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: is different, you know, And you got to calculate that
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: when Kacuci was traded Toronto to Houston, Dana Brown, the
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: GM of the Astros, and his data room, they knew
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: exactly what they wanted to do to Kacuci, and they
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: thought they could fix him. They did. He went over
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: there last year after the deadline and was like five
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: and one with like a two era. They made quick
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: adjustments with his repertoire, his pitch sequencing, and immediately paid dividends.
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: We used to get guys and say, hey, if we
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: changed the grip, or if we do this with his delivery,
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: if we put him on the other side of the rubber,
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: I think we can do this. Or you know, there's
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: also the guys in the middle. Like I remember when
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: I brought in Benito Santiago and Tony Fernandez. I didn't
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: know how that was. It was in ninety five. I
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: didn't know that was going to fit in the clubhouse.
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: So you know, I went to Barry Larkin, who was
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: one of the team leaders, and Lenny Harris, and I said,
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: you guys, think about these two guys because baseball wise,
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: they fit right sitting up there in the GM suite.
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: Fernandez can be goal glove third base right if I
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: put him there. Santiago upgrades are catching, but I'm not
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: sure how it's gonna fit in the room. What do
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: you guys think, will they fit in the room, and
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: if they don't, can we handle it? And when they
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: bought in, then okay, I'll go forward and make those moves.
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: So it's complicated because we're talking about human element and
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: then we're talking about how can I fix a guy?
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: And then sometimes you got to be concerned. I remember
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: when I worked for the Yankees, there was always the
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: big issue. Loop Panela and Gen Michael kept pounding with me.
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: You know, you gotta be careful because there's not a
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: lot of guys that can handle New York. And you've
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: got to really study the player because you can have
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: a pitcher that's pitching great for the Angels or Padres,
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: but you bring them over to New York and they
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: can't handle it. So you have to really study it
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: both ways to see. But change the scenery can certainly help.
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: It can also backfire.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah, thanks are dealing with a little bit of that
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: right now with a reliever or two, which is a
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: whole other topic. But JB, I want to ask you
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: about the trade deadline. We see the grades, we see
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: the super libs, the whole deal, the trade deadline passed.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: This is what I love. The few days after the
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: trade deadline and it's still happening, right. There's still articles
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: this morning about it, the conversations that went down, the
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: what ifs, right, stuff that didn't happen, or players blocking deal.
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: So I'll give you dealer's choice on this one from
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: Ken Rosenthal reporting about how the Padres landed Mason Miller
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: and some of the other teams, you know, turning down
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: Miller because they didn't want to give up some of
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: those top prospects, right, Phillies, I think Mets were on
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: that list, et cetera. Byron Buxton saying no to potentially
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: being moved because he wants some to stay with Minnesota
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: or any others that you saw those what ifs? Which
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: one stood out to you?
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean I think the Mason Miller deal I
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: loved a lot, only just as a former GM, just
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: understanding the people that made the deal. Right. Aj Preller
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: sitting there trying to win now, never been afraid to trade,
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: trade Turner or James Wood or C. J. Abrams, Rickenzie Gore,
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: never afraid. Has built a core that isn't going away,
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: and he's got a window to win a World Series
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: and there's not a prospect he won't trade, and it
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: was fascinating to me because what did he do. He
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: traded him to the athletics where, although he's not in
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: the limelight anymore, behind the scenes, one of the owners
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: named Billy Bean, had a long record. Remember the Addison
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: Russell trade for Jeff Samargia, Like he did the exact
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: same thing. That's why I text Billy Bean afterwards to
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: tell him, Yeah, you're fraid of Prince all over this one, Billy.
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: But to me, that was such such a great deal
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: because you know, AJ can call him and say, you know, look,
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: I traded Trade Turner, I traded James Wood, I traded
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: for Fernando Tatis Junior. I'm going to do the same
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: thing for you. I'm going to give you an all
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: star shortstop. He's a teenager and he'll be ready for Vegas.
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: But I need to win now and I need Mason Miller,
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: so I need your best asset. But I'll give you
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: my best future asset and for you three years from now,
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: you're gonna be really happy because everyone's gonna be asking me,
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: how could you trade James Wood and Devrees? But what
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: he's trying to do is win a championship. That's what
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: AJ's trying to do right now, I'd have made that
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: deal too. Now if I'm the Athletics, i'd have made
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: the trade, right. I mean, you got a chance to
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: get your future face of the franchise. Of course you're
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: gonna make that trade. So that was the most intriguing,
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: And the one on Buxton was kind of funny because
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: I remember when he was a young kid over in
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: spring training. I went over to Fort Myers and was
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: talking to him. He had the Minnesota Twins' logo tattooed
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: on his back, and I said, Byron, how do you
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: know you're going to spend your curer in Minnesota? You
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: know this game, you know this turnover. He said, no,
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna spend my career here. I said, you don't
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: know that. You could be a free agent. You could
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: get traded Byron. Buxton has the tattoo, and he honestly's
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: gonna finish his whole career. He is. He got the
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: no trade and he literally, no matter how bad they get,
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: he wants to stay there. So I got a big
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: out of so many teams trying to trade for him
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: and him just saying, no, I'm not going anywhere. So
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: if you give up someone and no trade. You gotta
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: live up.
• 18:08
  Speaker 6: To it, all right.
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: I got so many things off the answer you just
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: gave one. You gotta call him Preller because AJ is
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: on this show. Okay, the real one. Okay, Preler and
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: Hinch Okay, Jim. So if you're gonna keep coming on here,
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: this is AJ. They're Preler and Hinch.
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: All right, Okay, I'll call him. I'm gonna call him
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: King Preller. Then I got it.
• 18:26
  Speaker 4: That's fine. Do you call him whatever you want as
• 18:27
  Speaker 4: long as it's not AJ. Okay. And then, second of all,
• 18:30
  Speaker 4: Eric Milton.
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: Eric Milton once had a Yankees tattoo on his left shoulder,
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: and then he got traded to the Twins and he's like,
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: now what do I do?
• 18:36
  Speaker 4: And we're like, yeah, he shouldn't have probably caught that tattoo,
• 18:38
  Speaker 4: So yeah.
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: I fier bucks and has the no trade clause. Milton
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: got it before and then he got traded to the Twins.
• 18:44
  Speaker 4: All right, But then.
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: For real, I just I just want to know. This
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: is it last question for me? Will the Yankees make
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: the playoffs this year? With the way they're currently constructed because.
• 18:54
  Speaker 4: They can't make any more moves?
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: Will they make the playoffs, I'm gonna go no, and
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna go no because I'm gonna go no just
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: because I really love the al Wes three teams right now.
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: I just do. I mean, I think what Seattle did
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: at the deadline, I think they can get to the
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: World Series now. And I still all I've been on
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: Texas's bandwagon. I thought they would hit more with their
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: pitching has been really good. And Houston's not going away.
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: So if I put those three teams there, Detroit and
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: then Boston and Toronto may finish ahead of the New
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: York Yankees. So you know, I don't know. There's just
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: the vibe in New York's not great. They're not playing well.
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: You know, it's not a great defensive team. And I'm
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: worried about Aaron Judge. I've been clear about that because
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: the way the Yankees announced his injury, they said there
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: was no acute injury to the older collaterallignment. Then they
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: said there's a PRP injection. So that means there's a
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: tear in the older collateralligment. That's what it means. It
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: may be a slight tear, but there's a tear. It's
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: intact is what they said, right, and acute injury and
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: it's intact all that can be true. But this is
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: the same as Garrett Cole. So there's a tear. That's
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: why you don't shoot the PRP in there. If you're
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: not trying to strengthen the liga then and you're not
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: trying to strengthen the ligaments if it's completely strong. And
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: I just worry about that, you know, because if you
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: lose air and judge, this team can't win if their
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: MVP isn't in that lineup, And I'm worried about the bullpen,
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: you know, and I'm worried about Vulpi. I don't understand
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: the gold Glover why he's struggling like he is. So yeah,
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't be surprised if they miss out.
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, this is an avalanche of issues and it's surprising,
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: but here we are, and there are a few teams
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: coming after him. JB. Great stuff. This was a good
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: little catch up post deadline. Appreciate the time and we'll
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: catch you soon.
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: Thanks guys, appreciate it. Thanks Jan.
• 20:44
  Speaker 6: Krats.
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: There are a lot of people out there that pay
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: rent and they don't get anything for it.
• 20:48
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• 20:49
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• 21:38
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• 21:42
  Speaker 1: we've got our little middle infielder with us KIT. What
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: are your thoughts on what Anthony Volpi is going through?
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's a gold gloves shortstop who has had
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: significant throwing issues that seem mental heat does not seem
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: like he has his confidence defensively.
• 21:58
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean we've seen him be a fantastic defender,
• 22:02
  Speaker 6: so we know it's in there. I think he just
• 22:03
  Speaker 6: kind of needs to make up his mind. Hey, I'm
• 22:05
  Speaker 6: going to attack everything. I think that takes the kind
• 22:09
  Speaker 6: of guesswork out of it. I think when you're you're
• 22:12
  Speaker 6: indecisive or indifferent on what to do in the ball
• 22:15
  Speaker 6: or how much time to take, just say, hey, listen,
• 22:17
  Speaker 6: I'm going to attack every single thing and attack all
• 22:19
  Speaker 6: these throws. So my mind's made up on how I'm
• 22:21
  Speaker 6: going to approach the ball, how I'm going to approach
• 22:23
  Speaker 6: his throw. There's no guesswork in it, there's no second guessing,
• 22:28
  Speaker 6: And I think it just kind of simplifies things because
• 22:30
  Speaker 6: I think right now is his wheels are turning a
• 22:31
  Speaker 6: little bit too much because it's an AJ can attest
• 22:34
  Speaker 6: to this too. Can't play trying not to screw up.
• 22:38
  Speaker 6: You have to attack the game. You have to play
• 22:40
  Speaker 6: to make the plays. You can't play like when you're
• 22:44
  Speaker 6: when you swing to like just not strike out. It's
• 22:46
  Speaker 6: not your normal swing, So you're going to strike out.
• 22:48
  Speaker 6: When you try not to throw an air, you're gonna like, oh,
• 22:50
  Speaker 6: I gotta get it there. You're gonna drop the armslot
• 22:52
  Speaker 6: and then here goes to throw into the stand. So
• 22:54
  Speaker 6: it's like you just have to attack the game and
• 22:56
  Speaker 6: like it'll start to come back to you real fast then,
• 22:58
  Speaker 6: I think. But he he just looks like those wheels
• 23:00
  Speaker 6: are turning real fast right now.
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: What if Byron Buxton ended up on the New York
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: Mets or the Atlanta Braves. I'm not just saying this
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: out of the blue. Dan Hayes has done great work.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: I think he's working with Ken Rosenthal behind the scenes
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: on this as well, both of them writing for The Athletic.
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: This one from Hayes. Byron Buxton told inquiring teams no,
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: and then he put some other notes in that article
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: as well. But let's focus on Byron Buxton a couple
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: quotes here to start. So first off, he said, where
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: I came from, your word means everything. My track record
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: of how I'm still here and how I got here
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: is different. You've got to have a lot of people
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: behind you, not just the family, but everybody Minnesota did that.
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: That's home. He really started his campaign for him staying
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: in Minneapolis at the All Star Game. He received a
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: number of questions about if he could be on the
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: trade block, and he's like, I could not because I
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: have a no trade class, and I say no. So
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: they didn't even entertain anything except for the phone calls
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: that came through to Byron Buxton's agency. I'm saying the
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: Twins didn't entertain anything. Byron bucks agency got a number
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: of calls from teams who clearly were interested, and he
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: told them the same thing, don't waste your time. He's
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: not going to wave the no trade clause. Now here
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: comes the social media storm.
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: Kip.
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: You do have fans that say the Twins just sold
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: half their team away. They're going to be sold. There
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: are some good pieces there, but why does he want
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: to stay if he has an opportunity to join a
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: contender and not the Braves. The Braves aren't good this year.
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: He's from Georgia. There were some connections there, but some
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: other teams were interested as well. There were a number
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: of teams that called. But for example, fans are like,
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: why wouldn't Buckston want to join the Mets when they're
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: in a playoff race and the Twins are not.
• 24:36
  Speaker 6: I yeah, I can appreciate his loyalty. I can appreciate
• 24:40
  Speaker 6: a man of his word. I can appreciate that he
• 24:44
  Speaker 6: wants to finish what he started or build there because
• 24:47
  Speaker 6: they gave him the chance. All that stuff. That's great stuff,
• 24:49
  Speaker 6: and I know the front office appreciates that and loves that.
• 24:52
  Speaker 6: But you look around that clubhouse, almost everyone's gone. Your
• 24:58
  Speaker 6: team is, your ownership is kind of not gone for
• 25:02
  Speaker 6: it when you have had good teams recently, so they
• 25:05
  Speaker 6: aren't really about winning as much as you'd like him
• 25:07
  Speaker 6: to be. If you just said he's from Georgia. Let's
• 25:09
  Speaker 6: say Atlanta was good this year. Every one in your
• 25:12
  Speaker 6: starting lineup is pretty much gone. Atlanta is great this year,
• 25:14
  Speaker 6: let's say hypothetically, and they're trying to trade for you
• 25:18
  Speaker 6: so you can go home play for a hometown team
• 25:21
  Speaker 6: in a playoff race, and you're still gonna hold strong
• 25:24
  Speaker 6: of that. No, I don't get it. I guess I'd
• 25:27
  Speaker 6: like to think there are circumstances that should happen where
• 25:30
  Speaker 6: an answer should change. You would think as a player,
• 25:34
  Speaker 6: you would want to experience that experience. The playoff runs,
• 25:39
  Speaker 6: the deep playoff runs, because that's what we're all trying
• 25:41
  Speaker 6: to do anyways. So I don't know. I appreciate the loyalty,
• 25:45
  Speaker 6: but I also don't understand why staying there when they're
• 25:50
  Speaker 6: rebuilding it makes sense just or that doesn't make sense
• 25:53
  Speaker 6: to me, I guess.
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: I mean Jim Boden said it. He has a touch
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: to the Twins logo on his back. He's not going anywhere,
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: and it's his right.
• 26:03
  Speaker 4: So listen.
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: As much as I don't know if I could be
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: able to be as strong as Byron Bucks and say
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: I'm staying with the Twins, there is something cool about
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: being with one team, your whole career in one organization.
• 26:14
  Speaker 3: So I can't fault a guy. Listen, he got the
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: no trade clause and he wants to stick by it.
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: I mean, if you're a Twins fan, you have to
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: respect that. If you're a person in general, you have
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: to respect that. So could he move on to a
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: different place. He could, but he's comfortable. His family's comfortable there.
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: He might have a place in Four Myers, he might
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: have a place in Minnesota. He goes from four Myers
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: to Minnesota, his wife and his kids and his family
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: is comfortable with that. So I can't fault a guy
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: for that. As much as people to say, oh, he
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: doesn't want to win. Oh he doesn't want this, he
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: doesn't want that, you know what, it's his choice.
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: I'm sure there's people out there.
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: In regular world that if that work at a company
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: and another company comes and offers him a little bit
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: something better, and they're like, you know what, I'm gonna
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: stick with the company I'm with because I'm comfortable. And
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: I have to give that guy credit, because listen, if
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: I could have played for one team my whole career,
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: would have loved to have done it. But you know what,
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: I wasn't that fortunate. If you're fortunate enough to do it,
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: good for you. Byron Buxton.
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: And clearly he likes the way they're treating him too, guys.
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: I mean he's happy with you know, the front office
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: is usually you know, I mean talked about very highly right,
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: Derek Fabian company over there in Minnesota, Thad Levin who
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: was there for a while. He was just on our
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: show the other day, known as one of the nicer
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: guys in the sport. So it's not like he's in
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: one of those disaster scenarios and we all know they exist.
• 27:24
  Speaker 6: No, I'm saying I appreciate, I I can appreciate absolutely
• 27:27
  Speaker 6: everything that he's doing insane. I I do love it,
• 27:30
  Speaker 6: and he's earned the right to make that decision for himself.
• 27:33
  Speaker 6: I think he needs to get is it hobby hobby
• 27:36
  Speaker 6: bias that has the MLB logo tattoo on the back
• 27:38
  Speaker 6: of his neck? Ye, the way he's covered for any
• 27:40
  Speaker 6: team that he goes to. So he just gets the
• 27:42
  Speaker 6: MLB logo.
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, unless you end up playing in a different league.
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: Right if you're in the Mexican League and NPV and.
• 27:48
  Speaker 6: Run out, Yeah, run out of ideas.
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: Did you play with anybody?
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: Because I played with some guys in the minor leagues
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: that got that tattoo and I was like, what if you.
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: Don't make it?
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: And they're like, oh Megan, they didn't make it, And
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: I'm like, uh, do you cover that thing with so molts?
• 28:01
  Speaker 6: He had it before he was up with the big leagues.
• 28:02
  Speaker 6: But I think he was on his way.
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: Yeah, he was a first rounder. I think he was
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: gonna be okay. This guy was like not, these guys.
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: Are not rounds.
• 28:11
  Speaker 4: They were not.
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: There's a guy headed on his arm. There was a
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: guy who they had on his neck. I was like,
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: what if you don't make it?
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: It's good motivation because it's like I have to make it.
• 28:18
  Speaker 6: I have to. Yeah, I got the tacks like the team.
• 28:22
  Speaker 4: It's like the team is like, oh, he has a tattoo,
• 28:24
  Speaker 4: we need to send him to the big leagues.
• 28:26
  Speaker 6: What about this guy he's tatted up with the love
• 28:30
  Speaker 6: by the.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: Way, these two players, this guy hasn't tack.
• 28:35
  Speaker 4: By the way.
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: I just want to say this for the record. So
• 28:38
  Speaker 3: Jim Boden told the story of Byron Bucks and Eric
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: Milton had New York Yankee logo on his left arm.
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: I played with a guy I think his name was
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: Greg Hanson. Hanson, I think that was right. And he
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: had every he played for like nine teams so down
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: his leg. It started with the first team, and so
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: he had to keep getting the tattoos all the way
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: down his legs. So he ended up playing for like
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: eight or nine teams, so he.
• 28:57
  Speaker 6: Had them all all the way done his leg.
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: He'll get a tattoo if you're not one hundred percent sure, guys, Okay,
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: just saying, especially of a team in baseball, because guess
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: what they can do.
• 29:09
  Speaker 4: They can get rid of your really fastly. You have
• 29:12
  Speaker 4: one kip.
• 29:13
  Speaker 6: No, no, I do not have a team logo. There
• 29:17
  Speaker 6: you go, Hey, one more questions and they can get
• 29:19
  Speaker 6: rid of you real fast.
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: Right, one more question on this, because there's a guy
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: who's really is a legend in our sport, is going
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: to be a Hall of Famer, but the back half
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: of his career has not played out the way he's
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: wanted it to. What do you think about the Mike
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: Trout example, for Byron Buckston, who's already cracked open his
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: early thirties here and you just don't get too many
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: cracks at a World Series title. Does any of that
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: factor in here? Or you just have to have that
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: that goal that you want to win with the team
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: that you're with and you've got the new trade cause
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: you've got to overcome you know what the desire is
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: from outside?
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: I'm sure Trout's thought about it too. It's been talked
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: about sometimes in the offseason. It doesn't sound like he's
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: ever pushed the team though, So I wonder if that's
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: in Byron's headed off because you just don't know, right,
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, and he's had problems staying on the field.
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: It's like, you're thriving this year. There's teams that want you,
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: that can tend you want to say no to Atlanta,
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: go for it, they're not in the playoffs this year,
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: but you want to say no to the three or
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: four other teams that were interested.
• 30:16
  Speaker 6: It's I'm interested to see when It's like a player
• 30:20
  Speaker 6: can always tell kind of when they're nearing the end.
• 30:23
  Speaker 6: So if when the two of them maybe have like
• 30:25
  Speaker 6: two years left, three years left, maybe uh, and then
• 30:29
  Speaker 6: there's just no light at the end of the tunnel
• 30:31
  Speaker 6: for the organization, I'm wondering if you'll start to see
• 30:33
  Speaker 6: maybe he starts more a trout, just to give it
• 30:38
  Speaker 6: a give it a chance.
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: Okay, okay, But also, like Aj.
• 30:43
  Speaker 6: Said that you're you're at you're on the you're at
• 30:44
  Speaker 6: the home finish of playing your whole career for one team,
• 30:47
  Speaker 6: which is really cool.
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just the ring desire, right, I mean, everybody
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: wants every Scott.
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: Not everybody wins a ring. Kip didn't win a ring.
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: I was fortunate enough to win one, right, not everybody
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: wins one. But listen, Joe Mallard didn't win one. He's
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: in the Hall of Fame because he stayed with one
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: team his whole career, right, I.
• 31:06
  Speaker 4: Mean, it's kind of cool. Right to know this, Mike
• 31:09
  Speaker 4: Trout's probably gonna stay with the Angels entire career. Pretty cool.
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: Basic Matt though, is that if you're on a non
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: contender right now and they sold out their team away
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: and then they're going through an ownership change and they
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: might be good eventually, right Like, he's got a shot
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: at winning with this new group, But percentage chance, I mean,
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: you've got a better chance joining a contender now and
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: rolling that way. It's just it is what it is.
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: But it's the choice that he made. That's all just
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: presenting both sides. I actually kind of been in the
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: middle on this one because I would be more critical
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: if I felt like the player was on like an
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: absolute disaster scenario team and he only had a couple
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: of years left. Fyron Buxton should have, you know, hopefully
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: five or six years left in his career, and the
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: Twins will definitely be able to bounce back from where
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: they are. They were in the playoffs two years ago
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: and they're going to have a new owners, So I'm
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: okay with it. Davey Andrews joining us right now from
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: Fangrafts for the first time on FT. Daved, great to
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: have you on the show here and perfect timing because
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: past the trade deadline and now people want to know
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: playoff percentage chances for their ball club. So how you doing.
• 32:06
  Speaker 7: I'm good, Thank you for having me. It's fun to
• 32:07
  Speaker 7: be on. I see you guys background and I do
• 32:10
  Speaker 7: not have the same house as major leaguers as what
• 32:12
  Speaker 7: I'm doing.
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: Well, I don't either. I'm in a little apartment. But
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: you can fake it till you make it all day. Okay, Davey,
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: tell me about playoff percentages that you wrote about in fangrafts,
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: how they vary, what goes into them, and what has
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: stood out to you at the recent look at who
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: could you know, crack the playoffs that could surprise us
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: or who could miss out that could surprise us?
• 32:35
  Speaker 7: Right, Well, so I would start first, which is how
• 32:37
  Speaker 7: they work. I mean, the biggest thing is they take
• 32:40
  Speaker 7: your record, and then they look at your strength of
• 32:42
  Speaker 7: schedule for the rest of the season, and then they
• 32:44
  Speaker 7: look at your projections. So we're talking about how good
• 32:47
  Speaker 7: the projections think your team is, and so based on
• 32:50
  Speaker 7: all of that, they spit out a number the percentage
• 32:53
  Speaker 7: chance that you make the playoffs. So like the Dodgers
• 32:55
  Speaker 7: are at the top with ninety nine point six percent
• 32:58
  Speaker 7: chance because they're in first Iceland, because they're the Dodgers
• 33:01
  Speaker 7: with a really good team, and then there are plenty
• 33:03
  Speaker 7: of teams at the bottom with zero. So the reason
• 33:06
  Speaker 7: I wrote about it yesterday is that I was looking
• 33:09
  Speaker 7: at the numbers and I realized that this is kind
• 33:12
  Speaker 7: of the most stratified that the numbers have been in
• 33:15
  Speaker 7: a long time. Like in the National League, the Reds
• 33:18
  Speaker 7: have a thirteen point six percent chance of making the playoffs,
• 33:21
  Speaker 7: and then above them today is the Mets at eighty
• 33:24
  Speaker 7: nine point one percent, So they basically the numbers think
• 33:27
  Speaker 7: the National League is one hundred percent settled right now.
• 33:30
  Speaker 7: Obviously I'm doing some rounding here, but but I was
• 33:32
  Speaker 7: looking at it. I was like, Man, the numbers say
• 33:34
  Speaker 7: this is the most boring postseasons or stretch run since
• 33:37
  Speaker 7: we started keeping track of them.
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: Wow, that's crazy. So I will bring up what some
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: will say, including Reds fans, remember last year the Detroit Tigers,
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: what was their percentage chance of making the playoffs at
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: this point.
• 33:53
  Speaker 7: Zero point two percent? And you can buy a T
• 33:56
  Speaker 7: shirt with the Fangrafts graph that goes down, down, down,
• 33:59
  Speaker 7: down down, all the way up at the very end.
• 34:01
  Speaker 7: And you could also look at the twenty nineteen Indians
• 34:05
  Speaker 7: Guardians to bring it close to home here, I'm sorry
• 34:08
  Speaker 7: that who a week from this point in the season,
• 34:10
  Speaker 7: we're at ninety six percent above ninety six percent and
• 34:13
  Speaker 7: didn't make it. So it happens all the time, you know.
• 34:16
  Speaker 7: I think when when you hear a number like this
• 34:18
  Speaker 7: and you hear it's like a ninety percent chance, you think, well,
• 34:21
  Speaker 7: that means it's a done deal. But what it means
• 34:23
  Speaker 7: is one out of ten times the opposite thing is
• 34:25
  Speaker 7: going to happen.
• 34:26
  Speaker 4: Whoa, whoa, whoa? Was Kip on that team? Kip? Were
• 34:28
  Speaker 4: you on that twenty nineteen choke job team?
• 34:31
  Speaker 6: What I thought we did make the playoffs?
• 34:37
  Speaker 7: All right, Well then I feel less bad bringing it up.
• 34:40
  Speaker 4: Okay, all right, well that's amazing.
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: Well so then this is just a percent like everything
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: has to go right or wrong for a team to
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: make the playoffs.
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: Because if you.
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: Look at it right now, the Brewers are what ninety
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: nine point one percent, They have a nice small lead
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: on the Cubs. The Cubs are ninety six percent. But
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: like kind of what Scott said, the Reds team is
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: looking at like, hey, we're hot right now, We're playing
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: really well. We made some nice acquisitions. This is more
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: like if something crazy doesn't happen, right, this is just
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: more of like textbook things just continue as they've gone
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: for the first four and a half months.
• 35:16
  Speaker 7: Right, So you can in my article, I kind of
• 35:19
  Speaker 7: broke down the pros and the cons for the Reds
• 35:21
  Speaker 7: and like you're saying, there's a lot of pros here,
• 35:23
  Speaker 7: like they're gonna get Hunter green back, and they've got
• 35:25
  Speaker 7: Ellie day La Cruz who looks like he can just
• 35:27
  Speaker 7: carry a team, and if the additions they made at
• 35:29
  Speaker 7: the deadline work out, if Cabrian Hayes looks out at
• 35:32
  Speaker 7: the short fence in the Cincinnati and things, oh maybe
• 35:36
  Speaker 7: I should start lifting the ball a little to hit
• 35:38
  Speaker 7: it over like all of a sudden they're going to
• 35:40
  Speaker 7: start rolling. And they could absolutely do it. But they
• 35:43
  Speaker 7: also have I think the second toughest schedule the rest
• 35:46
  Speaker 7: of the way, and they've had an easy schedule to
• 35:48
  Speaker 7: this point. So some of the numbers that you're looking
• 35:51
  Speaker 7: at may be a little rosier than the real picture says,
• 35:55
  Speaker 7: and just the projections, like I mean, like what the
• 35:59
  Speaker 7: Phillies and did a lot, and the Padres a lot,
• 36:02
  Speaker 7: and so all of a sudden, these other teams added
• 36:04
  Speaker 7: to and added more, and so it's just it's a
• 36:07
  Speaker 7: tough road. So it's they're trying to factor in everything.
• 36:10
  Speaker 7: Obviously baseball is going to baseball. There's no way to
• 36:14
  Speaker 7: predict everything. But this year did stand out just because
• 36:18
  Speaker 7: the numbers are so stratified.
• 36:20
  Speaker 4: Davy, who's your team?
• 36:23
  Speaker 7: I mean, I'm a national skuy first and foremost, so
• 36:26
  Speaker 7: they've been at zero for a long time.
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: Now that's fine. I mean, I'm a white sex guy.
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: They were at zero before the year started, so I
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: get it.
• 36:32
  Speaker 4: I get it.
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: But they did win a World Series in twenty nineteen.
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: My question is the Yankees. Where were the Yankees at
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: six weeks ago? And now were they at? Because the
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: American League has kind of shifted, right, the Yankees were
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: dominating and were like, oh, Yankees are close to ninety
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: percent whatever they were, and now what's their number compared
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: to with like the Mariners, the Rangers, all these teams
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: that have kind of jumped in front of them.
• 36:53
  Speaker 7: Right, I would say the Yankees are one of those
• 36:55
  Speaker 7: teams who have seemed to defy gravity. Right now, they're
• 36:58
  Speaker 7: at seventy eight point eight, which is is down a
• 37:00
  Speaker 7: little bit. You know, they have been really struggling. But
• 37:03
  Speaker 7: the numbers, the projections, are a big part of this,
• 37:06
  Speaker 7: where they're looking at individual players and expecting them to contribute.
• 37:09
  Speaker 7: And so if Aaron Judge comes back healthy, then all
• 37:12
  Speaker 7: of a sudden that lineup is terrifying. If he doesn't,
• 37:15
  Speaker 7: the projections can't really tell you that. So if Aaron
• 37:18
  Speaker 7: Judge isn't there and hitting like Aaron Judge, then like,
• 37:21
  Speaker 7: throw this number in the garbage. Basically, you know, all
• 37:23
  Speaker 7: of this stuff depends on health and luck and short
• 37:26
  Speaker 7: sample sizes, all things that can go either way at
• 37:29
  Speaker 7: the drop of a hat. So so far, the numbers
• 37:32
  Speaker 7: have really liked the Yankees. But when we're watching it
• 37:35
  Speaker 7: with our eyes, it looks a lot scarier.
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: So let's transition over to the al What are you
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: seeing from the playoff projection numbers there?
• 37:46
  Speaker 7: Well, so, I mean the Tigers still are in first.
• 37:49
  Speaker 7: The Tigers look genuinely scary, and you know, I think
• 37:52
  Speaker 7: once you get into the playoffs they look even more scary.
• 37:55
  Speaker 7: You know, with the way they rolled in the postseason
• 37:59
  Speaker 7: last year where just Scoogle was unhittable, and they kind
• 38:02
  Speaker 7: of scraped enough together. They're bullpen isn't looking quite as good,
• 38:06
  Speaker 7: but I mean they're at ninety eight percent right now.
• 38:07
  Speaker 7: They've pretty much got the central locked up, and then
• 38:11
  Speaker 7: below them, it's a little bit of a mix. You know,
• 38:13
  Speaker 7: the Ale East is going to be a real battle
• 38:15
  Speaker 7: regardless of who ends up making the playoffs and doesn't.
• 38:19
  Speaker 7: I think the Al East will be really fun. The
• 38:20
  Speaker 7: Red Sox are on a run right now, the Blue
• 38:23
  Speaker 7: Jays have been on a run, and the Yankees have
• 38:26
  Speaker 7: the pieces where if they all put it together, those
• 38:29
  Speaker 7: could be three really good teams down the stretch and
• 38:31
  Speaker 7: it should be really fun.
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: Cap. We got to ask about your boys, because no
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: one's talking about them, but they're actually only, what is it,
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: a game and a half away from a playoff spot
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: right now. I don't know if the projections love them, but.
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: To present, it never loves them.
• 38:47
  Speaker 6: It never loves them because it's not like there's never
• 38:50
  Speaker 6: been an besides Jose, there's never been huge home run
• 38:52
  Speaker 6: hitters that can really like switch it that the statistical side,
• 38:55
  Speaker 6: the analytical side loves to like kind of go off that.
• 38:59
  Speaker 7: And we shouldn't know that the projections tend to regress
• 39:02
  Speaker 7: heavily on defense, which means when you're a good defensive club,
• 39:06
  Speaker 7: they don't trust you as much because they sort of
• 39:08
  Speaker 7: expect defense to balance out, and so for a team
• 39:11
  Speaker 7: like the Guardians who have some premium defenders like that
• 39:14
  Speaker 7: is a reason to look at the numbers with a
• 39:17
  Speaker 7: little more suspicion and a little more hope.
• 39:20
  Speaker 6: I appreciate you saying a nice thing about the Guardians there.
• 39:23
  Speaker 7: I love the Guardians. I'd end up writing about them
• 39:26
  Speaker 7: all the time just because they always have fun people.
• 39:30
  Speaker 6: I think. I'm trying to think of aj would you
• 39:32
  Speaker 6: actually you might be the wrong person answer as this question,
• 39:34
  Speaker 6: but because okay, because I already know your answer, I think,
• 39:39
  Speaker 6: would you ever look at something like this and give
• 39:42
  Speaker 6: it any stock and if you were a player playing?
• 39:44
  Speaker 4: No? Absolutely not.
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: Actually no, actually that's all right, because I would be like, oh,
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: we're only projected to win seventy two games through them.
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna try and win one hundred games and be like, yeah,
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: fan Grafts, you don't know what you're talking about.
• 39:58
  Speaker 6: Fair enough. I like it, though, No every play like, okay, well,
• 40:00
  Speaker 6: good thing, it's settled in between the White Lions like,
• 40:02
  Speaker 6: it's fine, we got this then, So I think that's
• 40:05
  Speaker 6: you're right, that's the best way to use it. Pen
• 40:07
  Speaker 6: if it's not telling you already end.
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: We've heard it brought up as bulletin board material before, Davy.
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: I'm sure you know and can talk about it.
• 40:14
  Speaker 7: More, especially from the Guardians for this very reason that
• 40:18
  Speaker 7: you know, like they've had a lot of premium defenders
• 40:20
  Speaker 7: in the past and so the numbers have not trusted
• 40:22
  Speaker 7: them and they've just gone on some really fun and
• 40:24
  Speaker 7: probable runs. So yeah, I mean, I think if you're
• 40:27
  Speaker 7: a player, I can't imagine looking at this for anything
• 40:29
  Speaker 7: other than, you know, bulletin board material.
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 40:33
  Speaker 6: I don't know if you're talking about me with premium
• 40:35
  Speaker 6: defenders in the past. Maybe my other guys in the infield,
• 40:39
  Speaker 6: I thought, But you.
• 40:40
  Speaker 7: Have the pop, the projections love pop.
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: Thank you.
• 40:43
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: Andre Samenez had the glove there recently for Cleveland. Yeah,
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: he was. He was probably the best defensive second basement
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: for a year or two there. My question to you,
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: Davy is where do you think it's wrong?
• 40:55
  Speaker 5: Right?
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: Where are you looking where either other numbers that you
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: like tell you you otherwise, or just the eye test
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: tells you otherwise, And I'll stay on American League because,
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: like you said, I'm with you. It's gonna be hard
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: to convince anyone that there's a better top six. And
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: they've got like this real clean cut top six in
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: the National League, but it's not quite the case.
• 41:12
  Speaker 4: In the AL.
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: So how do you see the AL playing out these
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: next couple months?
• 41:17
  Speaker 4: Right?
• 41:17
  Speaker 7: I mean the big thing is is the Rangers, Like
• 41:20
  Speaker 7: right now, they're at forty percent, and so that's a
• 41:24
  Speaker 7: decent chance, but they'd have to be thrown either, you know,
• 41:27
  Speaker 7: like the Mariners, Astros, the Red Sox, the Yankees. You know,
• 41:30
  Speaker 7: there are a lot of teams in the mix here,
• 41:32
  Speaker 7: and I think the Rangers just look really dangerous right now.
• 41:35
  Speaker 7: They have so many hitters who could get into shape,
• 41:38
  Speaker 7: and so many pitchers who could really put together dominant
• 41:41
  Speaker 7: stretches like you saw Ivaldi last night, just completely shoving.
• 41:44
  Speaker 7: I think the Rangers could really not only like close strong,
• 41:49
  Speaker 7: but like look like a team that nobody wants to face.
• 41:52
  Speaker 3: Would you want to face Evaldi and de Grom in
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: the postseason if you had to go one two in
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: a short series, in a three game series in your
• 41:59
  Speaker 3: first two starters, you get de Grom and Evaldi that
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: it sounds like it wouldn't be a lot of fun. David,
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: I know you're a nats man, so you get the
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: Strasbourg Ureser comparisons.
• 42:07
  Speaker 7: There, right, absolutely? Yeah, I mean I don't think anybody
• 42:10
  Speaker 7: wants to face the gram ever.
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: Yeah, true, especially when he's healthy. All right, So I
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: have two quick questions for you. When was the last
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: time the Braves were zero percent? Our producer lady at Claudia,
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: she's like she's a huge Braves homer, so she's like
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: crying about the Braves. So when was the last time
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: the Braves were zero percent?
• 42:26
  Speaker 7: Oh my god, I'd have to look it up. I mean,
• 42:28
  Speaker 7: it's this is such a weird year and and even now,
• 42:31
  Speaker 7: like you look at that team and I mean, obviously
• 42:34
  Speaker 7: it's different with the Kuna Goan, but it has been
• 42:37
  Speaker 7: a while. I would guess it's been five or six years.
• 42:40
  Speaker 4: Okay, since I was there in twenty sixteen.
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: I get it.
• 42:42
  Speaker 6: It's what I was looking because thanks for.
• 42:44
  Speaker 4: Rubbing it in. I appreciate it, Thank you, love it.
• 42:47
  Speaker 7: I did before I came on at the years you
• 42:49
  Speaker 7: were there and.
• 42:50
  Speaker 4: That, Yeah, I was looking there were zero.
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: They were zero from the time we took the field
• 42:54
  Speaker 3: and spring training, So I get it. No, no big deal.
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: The gnats were good then, So I'm all right. So
• 43:01
  Speaker 3: before we let you go, I have to ask you this.
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: You have your soundboard up there, looks like on your door.
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: I know you played guitar, right, you play guitar and
• 43:07
  Speaker 3: some bands. M what's what's cooler playing guitar in front
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: of a live crowd or writing an article like just
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: did a million people look at and read and trust
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: that your numbers are correct?
• 43:19
  Speaker 4: Well?
• 43:19
  Speaker 7: I think playing I don't know. I'm dell with playing guitar.
• 43:23
  Speaker 7: Here's why, because I didn't come up with these numbers.
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: I am not.
• 43:27
  Speaker 7: There are a lot of smart people at Fangrafts, and
• 43:29
  Speaker 7: I am not part of that club. I can put
• 43:31
  Speaker 7: the words down, but as far as the math behind
• 43:34
  Speaker 7: and behind them and explaining all of it, they're much
• 43:37
  Speaker 7: smarter people than I am. So I gotta go with
• 43:40
  Speaker 7: the guitar.
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: Like he did his homework.
• 43:46
  Speaker 4: This was his chance to pump his bands, and he
• 43:49
  Speaker 4: didn't do it.
• 43:49
  Speaker 7: So you guys, you guys have had Petriello on we
• 43:53
  Speaker 7: play in a band together, So.
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: Oh no way, I didn't know that the band. That's
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: really cool. Okay, what's the band name?
• 44:00
  Speaker 7: Where the Subway goes? We got a show next week,
• 44:03
  Speaker 7: so if anybody is, you know, around in New York,
• 44:05
  Speaker 7: check us out.
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: Okay, well yeah, look them up. Subway Ghost. I love that.
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: Davey is a is a multi whatever you want to
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: call multi entertainment threat, dual threat. Very cool, baby, this
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: was awesome. Thank you for joining us. Really appreciate the
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: look into those playoff projections, as many people will look
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: at them like these guys do and use it as
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: bulletin board material whatever else. So we appreciate the entertainment
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: and the info from fangrafts all the.
• 44:31
  Speaker 7: Time, my pleasure. They are there for people to shout about.
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: Yes, exactly right. Criticism welcome, bring it, bring it, Davy,
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: thank you so much. Appreciate it again.
• 44:42
  Speaker 7: All right, thanks, have a good one, guys,