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NFL Draft Final Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Good morning, Welcome to the Favorites the podcast. We are
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: part of the Action Network and we are probably presented
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: by BET three six ' five listen. If you're listening
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: to us in podcast form a reminder, you can watch
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: us live on YouTube at Action Network HQ. You can
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: listen to us live on AMP. We come to you
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: in all forms. We want to deliver the content to
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: you in whatever way it makes you happy. I am
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Chad Moman, chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: are ours from the draft kicking off. I am joined
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: as I am for every episode by my co host,
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, my compadre, professional Better Simon Hunter's only.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: Then Hello, hot Chat. How you doing brother?
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I'm extra amped today because I'm in the New York studio.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: I got our cool Favorites back trap behind me. I'm
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: also extra YouTube today because I feel like we've said
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: all we can say about the draft almost do you
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: know what I mean?
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah, i'd say it's a it's exciting day, it's a
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: fun day, but I told you it's just a day of.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: I mean, this whole week has just been chaos.
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: So this draft has definitely been unique, and apparently people
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: think they know exactly how it's gonna go. When there's
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: other people like us Chad that we know, we really
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: don't know what the hell is about to happen. So it's
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: definitely gonna be a fun day.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: As they say in reality television, you think you know,
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: but you have no idea. And we've got breaking news
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: that we're going to talk about in one second. Before
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: we get to that, I want to ask you a question.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Because everyone makes a big deal about the draft. Everyone
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: feels like the future of their franchise depends on the draft.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: And there's been a really interesting debate going on as
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: it relates to people like Bijon Robinson, the running back
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: from Texas, who you have said a lot of people
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: have said top three player in terms of talent in
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: the draft, But he's a running back, So where are
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: you going to take him in the draft? You don't
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: get first round value out of running backs necessarily, unless
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: you are a team that you think might be one
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: player away. You take the running back and there could
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: be value in getting you to that next level. With
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: that said, the Eagles, some people say the Cowboys are
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: their teams right now you're looking at in the futures, market,
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: who if the draft goes the way they are, the
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: way they want it to go, and what we're seeing
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: in the MOX, you think that one player could make
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: a difference between winning the division, not winning the division,
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: winning the conference, not winning the conference, and winning the
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: super Bowl not winning the super Bowl.
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: I don't know why.
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: In my head I thought you were going to talk
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: about Jerry Springer rest in peace to Jerry Springer. I
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: don't know why when he says them without Reality TV,
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: I thought You're gonna go to Jerry Springer. The NFL
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: draft is tricky, Like me and you were in media
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: and I'm now in media. So I try to be
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: positive about the NFL Draft and how important it is.
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: But in actuality, Chad, you know the deal. One player
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: does not change any team anyone. If they wont they
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: can reach out to me and Chad, I would love
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: to see the data. Has there ever been a draft
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: that ended up making it to a team won a
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: Super Bowl, let alone a running back.
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: So I've had a couple of calls about the Robin thing.
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: I get it. I get guys. Guys are saying exactly
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: what Chad saying. It's just like a running back isn't
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: valued like that. There's no reason to take a running
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: back that high. When is the last running back actually,
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: you know, took a team to a super Bowl.
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: It's a fair argument.
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: I mean Marshawn Lynch was the only one I could
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: really think of in our recent memory, right with that
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: incredible Seahawks defense. But that's such a unicorn situation. So
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: I wish it was that simple. You know, the Eagles
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: lost the Super Bowl by three points. Would Robinson have
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: changed that hard to say. I mean, Herts ran for
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: three touchdowns himself, so I do think obviously it's a
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: big upgrade for the Eagles. But yeah, and the grand
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: scheme of things is a big better. I can't see
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: anyone drafted today moving any of these guys lines more
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: than half a point for me during the.
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: Season, So you know, there's no there's no real unicorns
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: coming out of this draft. That's that that huge of
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: a game changer.
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: Again, if there was a Nick Bosa type, right, like
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: some guy coming out that's a that's truly a game changer,
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: that would be different.
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: We just don't have that.
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: So for me, personally, I love the draft, but I
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: think I'm like more most professional betters right now, it
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: doesn't really mean much like no rookie. We talk all
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: the time a rookie quarterback. They're over four in championship games,
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: they've never won one, so they're kind of irrelevant. We've
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: never seen an offensive lineman come in and change the
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: whole team's franchise projectory, right. Joe Thomas one of the
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: greatest offensive lineman's ever. I think he never played in
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: a playoff game for the Browns. May he played in
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: one in ten years. So it's there's tons of talent here,
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: but it's again, it's a fifty three man roster. So
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: it is a fun day chat, but sadly it's it's
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: not gonna be the reason your team wins the Super
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: Bowl this year, all right.
• 5:44
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• 7:19
  Speaker 1: gear wrong Tea also becoming more and more guaranteed. Simon Hunter,
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Alabama pass rusher Will Anderson going number two to the
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Houston Texas, so the odds on him have dropped considerably.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: It was plus money when we spoke on Tuesday, minus
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: three hundred and bet three sixty five right now for
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: him to go number two. Not surprising at all that
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: this is how it's shaking out. Bryce Young number one,
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Will Anderson number two. This is what everybody's saying. Your take.
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: So dumb everything, This is so I just and this
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: is the first time in my life. This year I
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: was working with a team. So you know, I've never
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: done consulting work with an NFL team before, and I
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: did this year, and I thought, this will be amazing.
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna get inside look on a team. I'm gonna
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: get some inside info. Honestly, it was a weird experience chat.
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: I've gained zero inside info from the team I worked with,
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: But I think after the draft maybe I'll talk about
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: it more. But I think it's one of those drafts
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: where I understand why the team has been so tight lipped,
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: but they it feels like I gave.
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: Them info and they just literally threw it to the win.
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: They paid me, so I got money out of it,
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: but they didn't use my info at all. I just
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: I don't really get it if the Carolina thing will
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: never make sense to me. Carolina traded up for the
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: number one pick in this draft. They gave an incredible
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: Hall of the Bears. The Bears literally got a top
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: ten receiver who's five years old in Dj Moore from
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: the Panthers. They got their draft picks, and they traded
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: up for a guy who's five.
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: Ten to be the number one pick.
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: Has a ton of red flags from a multiple different teams. Okay,
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: do what you want. You want to go get your quarterback,
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: Go get Bryce Seawan Houston. Everything you read just doesn't
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: make sense. Apparently they're going to take a quarterback with
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: their second pick. They just feel like the Browns all
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: over again. Remember the Browns kept passing on quarterbacks. Oh,
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: we don't really like Deshaan Watson, we don't really like Mahomes.
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: We're gonna take Miles Garrett. Miles Garrett's a good player,
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: as he done anything for that Browns franchise. He's he
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: really moved the needle at all.
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: Not really.
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: It always comes back to that quarterback position. So the
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: Texans doesn't make sense. I get it they're gonna grab
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: an edge rusher, but it's just bizarre to me. It's like,
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: why not go get your guy and you find out
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: this year if he's legit like Rosen Remember Rose on Arizona.
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: We knew right away that kid wasn't for the long term.
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: So what they do? They used him for a year.
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: He was terrible. They never want picked. The next year
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: they took Kyler Murray. That's that's how you're supposed to
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: do it. You're supposed to just keep drafting these quarterbacks
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: do you find one. So if the Texans really do
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: take Anderson with that second pick, they're stupid franchise and
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: they'll keep being what they are, which is going to
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: be in the bottom rung of that division.
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: So doesn't really make sense.
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: If I was them, there's just other players I take
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: that position or I trade back if anything. So the
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: Will Anderson thing is interesting. I think that's more of
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: a mock. The reason it's up to minus three hundred
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: unless it's minus a thousand or more that that doesn't
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: mean shit to me for the sports books like to me,
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: minus three hundred, that's nothing for them. So as much
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: as people I can think that's the guaranteed he is
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: going to now, I still don't see it. Only the
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: only thing that feels like it's really going to happen
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: is a bright young.
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: Pick that got up to I want to say, I checked.
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: It at eleven pm Hawaii time, so that's like five
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: am New York City time. I think he was up
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: the minus four thousand at bet three six five. So
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: to me, that's like, okay, Bryce seawng. Now that seems
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: like a guarantee is gonna go one. I thought there
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: were still some outside chance it could be CJ or
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: could be Anthony Richardson, but no, it's gonna be Bryce
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: at one and number two. I'm still not told on
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: Will Anderson. I still think there's an outside chance to
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: get quarterback. I just the ownership has said they want
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: a quarterback. And you know, to me, their general manager
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: seems like he's on thin ice.
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: He's got a new he's had.
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: A new head coach every year he's been he's been there,
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: gm like he has a he hires a new coach
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: every year.
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: So I can't believe it. But I would not.
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: Be shocked if they do take ony Enerson because they're
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: just not a well run organization. But the smart move
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: for them, would beat is to take one of these
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: quarterbacks and try to figure out what you have from there.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Don't you feel like, let me let me throw some
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: cold water on your they're not a well run organization theory.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Don't disagree, by the way, I'm just playing devil's advocate.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: You take will Anderson because, as we have said many
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: many times, if you've got four quarterbacks, you don't have
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: any quarterbacks. You take will Anderson, you know you're going
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: to stink for another year, right, you get a shot
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: the next year to get someone in Caleb Williams who
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: you actually feel might be a Trevor Lawrence type of
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: talent and the surefire number one pick. There would be
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: no debate. So are they being smart and potentially playing
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: the long game because they're gonna stink no matter what,
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: and so get an edge rusher and then get Caleb Williams.
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: That's what I mean that you just can't keep kicking
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: the can down the road. It's you don't know shit, Houston,
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: who are you?
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: Who are you to think you're gonna be able to
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: take a quarterback next year? They're going to be actually good. So, like,
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: that's my issue with the Browns. They kept passing on
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: these guys. They're passing them my Homes. They passed on
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: a Watson to take a d end because they say,
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: you know, we don't like this QB class. We'll wait
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: till next year. Like we like the Sam Darnold, we
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: like Baker Mayfield next year.
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: It's just stupid. It's like no one knows.
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: So I'm in agreeance that there's a lot of question
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: marks with this draft, but that's every year's draft. Like, again,
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: I love Kayleb Williams. I think this kid's upside next
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: year is insane. He's already getting comps to Mahomes. Was
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: Mahomes the number one pick draft in that year's draft?
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: Chad was he the number of quarterback take in that
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: year's draft? I think you know who the number of
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: quarterback takeing in Mahomes draft was, right.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Well, I know that it wasn't Patrick Mahomes, and I
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: know the Bears didn't take Patrick Mahomes when they had
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: a chance exactly.
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: So all these teams can act like they're so damn smart,
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: it's just not they Half these teams don't even know
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: not evaluate the position, which is the guy on his truth,
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: and then it's all about scenario.
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: Mahomes, to me, he's an incredibly gifted quarterback, you know,
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: damn well, like Ibu Chat, he would not be having
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: the career he's having right now.
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: If he went to the Browns.
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: You take away Andy Reid making him into one of
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: the smartest quarterbacks in football, you take away Kelsey Tyreek Hill,
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: those safety blankets he's had his whole career, Mahomes wouldn't
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: be what he's at now right, a two time Super
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: Bowl winning quarterback. It's just a lot of it goes
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: into where you end up landing in the organization you
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: get in. So you know, Houston, I'm not here trying
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: to bash them. My whole point is get it over with,
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: rip the band aid off. Like you guys, you act
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: like you're so damn smart. You've had one good quarterback
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: your whole franchise and he was a freaking weirdo and Watson,
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: so it's like, get it over with draft the guy
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: you're just you're you're spinning your tires here. To me,
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: if you're Houston, if they keep passing on quarterbacks, because
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: again I think Williams is an incredible prospect for next year,
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: I just there. To me, there's no point of passing
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: up another good quarterback prospect this year. You just keep
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: shooting your shot until you find one of these guys.
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: Just we talk all the time, Chad, there's fifteen really
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: good quarterbacks in the league that you'd win as a starter,
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: and there's ten elite quarterbacks you want on your team.
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: So to me, just keep shooting shots.
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: It's just pointless to me that they would pass on
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: a quarterback at two and then take one to twelve.
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: It's like, I don't know, I don't.
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: Like the whole idea of them doing that, But I
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: get it, Chad, I get it. It's like you get
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: in these draft rooms and if you don't love the guy,
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: it's as a gym, it's hard to make the play.
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: On picking one of these guys.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: I want to remind everybody, as I said at the
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: top of the show, we're live on YouTube and on AMP,
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: which means you can ask questions in the chat as
• 15:36
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• 15:48
  Speaker 1: have two questions to start simon, one for you, one
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: for me. Last episode, there was a lot of over
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: three and a half betting where Will Anderson will go
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: the news slash Steam today. Is he making a move?
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: I kind of feel like we've answered that, but it's
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: an important question.
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: No, not yet.
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: When it adds to minus a thousand, I'll be like,
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: ah shit. But right now, no, it's still just all
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: hear said. People are going off mocks and everything. It's
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: just it just hasn't moved enough for me to be
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: panicking yet. But again, it makes sense if that's really
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: their pick. But I just I would be shocked if
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: they pass on a quarterback.
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: Same with a.
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: Team trade up to pick three and a team moving
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: into that for spot if the Colts move out.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: Uh. The question for me was what hair product do
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: I use because my hair is always on point Comma always.
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: You know what.
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: I appreciate that because I think a lot about my
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: hair and I use Aribay what's it called Aribay Silvariati
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: illuminating pomade. And my hairstylist in West Harford, Connecticut recommended
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: it to me because I was starting to get so
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: gray on the shot on the sides of my hair.
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: Feel like you should use this silveriety because it actually
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: it brightens up the gray. It makes it pop a
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: little bit.
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: So fancy name for just for men.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: No, dude, it's the opposite. It's the opposite of trying
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: to color it. It makes the silver even more silver. Yeah,
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: it's like you know it's it's a it's got a
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: little sheen to it. Love it a rebay. I get
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: it on Amazon. I got a subscription to it. It just
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: comes to me every six weeks. I think about it.
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: Why chat if you wear off Amazon? It takes about
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: three months for something to get here.
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: Here's a question. Any shot Trey Lance gets traded tonight?
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: Of course, of course there's a shot it gets traded tonight.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: This is when moves happen, right, Like you're using capital,
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: you've got the draft picks, you can move players. More
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: people are in a deal making mood. I know that
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: sounds silly, but deals are built up towards the draft,
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: so one hundred percent, this is a time when you
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: could expect Trey Lance to potentially get traded, and actually
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: I think it's an interesting move.
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I would be shocked. I would be truly shocked.
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: I'd have to look it up. But the kid got
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: drafted at twenty so I think he's twenty two to
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: twenty three, which means he's younger than a couple of
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: these prospects that are claiming to go in the first round.
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: So you know, that's one of those where they seem
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: in practice. If the forty nine ers think this this
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: kid ain't it, let's move on, Let's try to get
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: our some draft capital back for it. Yeah, because Hee
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: Trarelian's being moved. That's another interesting key of this whole
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: draft is we've had a lot of a lot of
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: the trolling from Lamar Jackson. You know, he's been putting
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: the smiley faces on Twitter doing whatever. That's another guy
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: I've heard linked to this point er team, like Trey Lance.
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: For Lamar straight up. I love that move for both teams. Like,
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: to me, I don't know about it, but like Shanahan
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: with that offensive running scheme with Caffrey, Yeah, oh my.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: God, it's right.
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: So I would love for that mayhem of those teams
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: swapping quarterbacks. But yeah, like I think we're gonna see
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: a lot of craziness in this draft. There's a couple
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: of different teams I just see making big trades, big moves,
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: and it's just because of that quarterback position chat. So yeah,
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: the Trey Lance being moved would not be shocked.
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: But you know, again, it's all about what the.
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: Forty Nits are seeing in practice, because people keep saying
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: they're like, well, I just haven't seen it with this kid,
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: Trey Lance. We saw him playing as Naimi against the Bears,
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: and then he snapped his leg in half the next game,
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: So I got no opinion on the kid. To me,
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: I like his upside, especially at his age. But once again,
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: this is a this is a franchise that's seen this
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: kid every day in practice. So I would say it'd
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: be more telling the forty Niners moving on from Trey
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: Lance than anything else.
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: I do feel like Trey Lance will not be on
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: this forty nine ers team trading camp. And I do
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: feel like there are a lot of teams out there
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: who will see what you're seeing. That he is younger
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: than a lot of the guys in the draft. And
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: there's so many questions. To me, there are so many
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: questions about everybody in this draft except for one player,
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: one quarterback. That's what I'm talking about, c J. Stroud.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: Just do the right thing people. Right now, Mal Kuiper
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: and his mock draft has the Titans trading up to
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: number three to get CJ. Shroud, and he has the
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: Cardinals at number four. I'm sorry the cult at number
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: four taking Will Levis. This to me feels like the
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: Justin Fields draft. And I know you and Evan were
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: trying to get in my head about Ohio State quarterbacks
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: and the history. It doesn't fucking matter. What Ohio State
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: has been doing offensively the past five to seven years
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: is so dramatically different, and then what Ohio State had
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: been doing for the previous one hundred years. When what
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: he Hayes was saying, only three things can happen when
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: you pass the ball, and two of them are bat like.
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: This is not three years in a cloud of dust.
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: Ohio State offense from the nineteen one hundreds to the
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: nineteen seventies. It's a dynamic, open, progressive pass first offense.
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: Give me CJ. Strapp. I've seen everything I need to see.
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: He's done it consistently. You know what the ceiling is
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: going to be, which I think is high. You know
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: what the floor is going to be, which I also
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: think he has a really high floor. Makes no sense
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: to me other than that everyone is a question mark. Simon.
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I had CJI for a couple of months.
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: Here is my number one prospect, especially my number one quarterback.
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: I'm not gonna lie Chat. After seeing that cognitive test,
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: I moved him down. I moved an think they're interesting
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: to be my number one quarterback. So five years from now,
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: if people want to shoot on me, I completely get it.
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: I was way too hot Anthony Richardson possibly, but from
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: everything for Anthony Richison pocket, you know, presence and just
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: his movement, like the way he can move in the pocket.
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: I just love this kid's upside compared to CJ. Where
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: I do love CJ.
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: The biggest thing going against him Chat is multiple scouts
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: that I talk to Again, it's no faar of his own.
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: Going to Ohio State, he arguably played with the best
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: wide receiving core we've ever seen for his entire stint
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: that he was at college. Like he literally every time
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: he went up there, he had on both sides a
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: number one you know, round, a number one round receiver.
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: So that's no knock against CJ. It's just facts where
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: you know, he's been surrounded by incredible talent his whole career.
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: I guess some teams are seeing that a little bit
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: as a flag of he wasn't as good as he's perceived,
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: just because he had.
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: That talent around him. You know, the metrics pare of
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: that out too.
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: He threw in a lot, threw into a lot of
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: you know, smaller windows. He took a lot more chances
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: than you would want to see a college kid be
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: taking in the sense that guys are just open to college.
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: We're in the pros.
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: That's just not so guys are not open. You have
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: to throw guys open the pros. We're in college. Guys
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: are just open. So the CJ information over these last
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: couple of weeks, I just did not see me moving
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: him down the board, and I eventually did just because
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: of everything gets popped up. So five years from now, again,
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: it's all about situation you're drafted into. I still see
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: Richardson being the best prospect in this class. It's twenty
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: years old right now. I'd be twenty one on this
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: upcoming season. I just love his upside.
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: CJ.
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: I'm still on board with the Chad, but there are
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: like that cognitive test is a big deal. But the
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: fact of this kid, what you want of football is
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: you don't want people thinking. You just literally want guys
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: out there just reacting. That's literally the best guys you
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: hear from Aaron Rodgers, Mahomes, they all talk about that
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: in football, that you're so prepared you literally go out
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: there you don't even think, you're just reacting to what
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: the defensive gives you. That's a bad deal. This kid,
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: he's not naturally gifted that way. Everything he does apparently
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: is very processed.
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: So I'm I'm.
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: Still high in CJ. I love his body type, love
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: his arm strength. He's a great athlete, but that that
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: to me, is definitely a red flag of this guy
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: isn't naturally gifted mentally, Like he doesn't have that upstairs
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: what Bryce Young has tensfold.
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: This kid is out of this world football smart.
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: So you know we'll again, We'll see it's all about
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: the teams you land on the right coaching tree. Frank Reich,
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: please draft CJ. That would be incredible for this kid
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: to get one of the smarter guys, one of the
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: smarter QB coaches ever in football with him. I mean,
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: we saw what Frank did with Carson Wentz, which is
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: a corpse. Now that's what I think he could do
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: with CJ if he gets the right coach man. CJ
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: is such high upside. But once again, Chad, if he
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: goes to Houston, I don't know. I don't know how
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: great I'll be feeling about CJ's prospects going forward. But
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: with a guy like Frank Reich in Carolina, I would
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: love for CJ end up somewhere like that.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: Here's the problem with a couple of things you just said,
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: and a problem with the draft process, and why so
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: much of this is so fucking stupid, and why I
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: think a lot of these guys are they look for
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: reasons to sound smart and it means nothing.
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: How dare you?
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence had an incredible cast of talent around him.
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: Does he get knocked down because the talent around him
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: was too good? Zach Wilson, Oh, he's got all the intangibles,
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: but he didn't have any talent around him. Imagine what
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: he'll do when he gets to the NFL. He's fucking terrible,
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: So Trey Lance all the intangibles, he's not even playing
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: against good people. Imagine what he's gonna do when he's
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: got really good talent around him. Give me a fucking break. CJ.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: Stroud was good with really good talent. There's also quarterbacks
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: who are bad with really good talent. And that's that
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: is not the quarterback's fault. The cognitive thing, I haven't
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: looked into it that much. I believe that's a real thing.
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: If it's a real thing. But the talent knock, the
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: body type knock, the speed knock, the Ohio State knock.
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: These are people looking for reasons to not like a kid.
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: They are not to not take a kid.
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: I know that's our job.
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: Though you're supposed to nippick, you're supposed to find your guy.
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: There's there's just a bunch of little things you're looking
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: forward to make it so the person can be off
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: your board chat. That's the honest truth, like Jalen Carter
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: being off of half the teams on their first you know,
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: half the teams don't have a first round great on
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: Jalen Carter anymore. I'm with you, that's really stupid. But
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: that's that's literally that franchise, that's that's how they operate,
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: Like that's how these certain teams do thinks. So I'm
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: agreeing with you, like I'm we're probably overthinking these things,
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: but that's how you're supposed to do it. Like you remember,
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: Chad I got a lot of shit for saying Justin Fields,
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: with the second best quarterback on that draft, I said
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: he should have been the number two pick. I bet
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: it that way. He felt a what you guys gotta
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: pick eleven? I feel like you felt way down the
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: board and the bear scooped them up. So we see
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: it every year that just people. You're right, they overthink things,
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: they make things that aren't true. But at the same time,
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: that's how we protect ourselves from the Zack Wilson types.
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: Like I was one of the few people that said
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: I had a second round right on Zach Wilson. I
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: just never was buying into the kids hype, So you know,
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna have plenty of missues in life. Anthony Richardson
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: might be a huge miss, but that's who I have,
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: is my number one quarterback. I just think this kid's
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: upsides's insane.
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: All Right, We're starting to get a little bit sent
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: of the draft board right now. So there's a couple
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: moves that I think are worth us trying to say
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: these are the direction we would want to go for
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: some picks. First one, I want to look at let's say,
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: let's say it's Bryce Young and will Anderson, which means
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: that at number three, there is some serious potential action
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: in play, because we could get Arizona trading out, we
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: could get Indie trading up, we could get Tennessee trading
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: up at number three. Who are we taking? Who do
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: we think is the best bet to go number three?
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: Right now? CJ. Stroud plus one fifty tyree Wilson plus
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: three hundred. There was a lot of talk before the
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: will Anderson news that he was going to be the
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: second overall pick. Who do we like at number three?
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: Who's our best bet at number three?
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: C J.
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: Stroud still plus money there?
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and like we heard the offensive lineman Paris Paris. Yeah,
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: to me, again, all those things make sense. That makes
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: the most sense to Arizona's They do what other teams
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: that are in.
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: Their spot do, which is you trade out. Like the
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: four nine ers.
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: They gave up what you had two first round picks
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: to move into the third pick to.
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: Get Trey Lance.
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: Like, they gave up a lot to move up to
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: get Trey Lance to to pick three. That's what Arizona
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: I think they're holding out for right. They're trying to
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: make it so that they're praying Houston doesn't take aquarter
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: that would be huge for them. That means multiple teams
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: could still move up and get their guy pick three,
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: if they like CJ, if they like Will Levis. Like,
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: there's a bunch of reasons they move up in that
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: pick three spot. So my gut feeling still is they
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: don't pick there unless the gym is a total idiot.
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: They don't pick there.
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: Just Arizona so many holes if you go through their roster,
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: they're one of the worst rosters on football. Even with
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: Kyler Murray. I think they have the second lowest odds
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: in the NFC. That's how you know, No one respects
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: the team they've built. Their general Andrew was fired, so
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: this is a new GM, this is his first year.
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: I just I'm hoping this guy is smart enough to
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: know you just trade back there, You just trade back,
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: let a team move.
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: Up take their quarterback.
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: Because we hear timetime again, the Colts have just been
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: thrown out noise all week, right, or I'm not even
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: a week. All month, they've just been talking about woll
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: We love Will Levis. We could easily see this guy
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: being on our team.
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: You know, that's just all shade, right.
• 29:52
  Speaker 3: They wouldn't blatantly come out and tell people exactly who
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: they love and who they're going to take. So clearly
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: the Colts are going to take a quarterback there. To me,
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: there's a couple of teams that make sense to trade
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: up there, but no other than Tennessee. Tennessee been talking
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: and noising about them trade up to that third spot.
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: Just it makes sense for Tennessee to go up draft
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: to get a guy, get a new quarterback, get this
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: thing rolling here. So to me, if you're gonna make
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: a bet that third spot, it makes sense right now.
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: On bet three six five CJ shouts is plus one one, one,
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty. So you know the books are
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: saying that CJ is going there in the third spot.
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: I feel like that kind of makes sense. If he
• 30:31
  Speaker 3: doesn't go to a team will move up and take him.
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: Like Chad said, a lot of teams have really high
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: grade on CJ. So not shocking to see him there
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: with that number.
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: I just my my favorite bet, still Chad, for first
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: defender had taken is still Jalen Carter. I just still
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: see somehow the Seahawks or Detroit taking in with that
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: that pick when they get to him, so you could
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: shop around. I've seen it twenty to one Jalen Carter
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: be the first defender taken just because of what you
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: had just talked about. Everyone's still talking about Wilson, They're
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: still talking about Anderson. The edge rusher is always going
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: to get the hype, and to me, Carter, if it
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: goes away, I think it's gonna go. Which is quarterback, quarterback, quarterback, quarterback,
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: four straight quarterbacks. I just will not be shocked if
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: Carter is taken there a number five by Seahawks.
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: Well that makes it interesting, right, So let's say the
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: number two pick right now, Will Anderson, like we've said
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: minus three hundred, Yeah, this could be interesting. Right, Let's
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: say it's Bryce Young number one. Here's here's what I'm probably.
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: Like, what I think?
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: So what Will levis I think is the guy everyone
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: keeps talking about for that number two pick, right well,
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: like yesterday or like two days ago, that's what we
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: were on the show talking about.
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: Right, Well, yeah, but I think that's long gone. I
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: think I think I think if we think it's going
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: to be quarterback, quarterback, quarterback, quarterback, and look, we would
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: never reckon men. You're going full units the way you
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: do during the NFL season on the NFL Draft. It's
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: supposed to be fun, right, So it's a tenth of
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: a unit here, a quarter of a unit there.
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: Like if I had a huge edge people, I would
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: be telling you right now, like if I knew exactly
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: what was going number two, Chad knows, there's no secrets here.
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: I already made all my bets. I would be screaming
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: from a mountaintop exactly who was going number two if
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: I exactly knew.
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: Who it was.
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: So that's one of those people knowing me well enough
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: to know that if I have an edge, I give
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: it out here, and I like Chad's about to say,
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: I have no idea who the hell is going at
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: number two?
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: So the number two, I think, if it's fun to
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: do it that way, you do price Young number one,
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: you do, I would do CJ. Stroud number two at
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: plus six hundred. You could also do Will Levis number
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: two at plus six hundred. Then you could do then
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: you could do Levis and CJ. Stroud at number three.
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: You could do CJ at plus one fifty, and you
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: could do Levis at plus eight hundred, and then what
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: you can do is number four Levis at plus one
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: thirty and Anthony Richardson have plus three hundred. That's what
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: I would do. It's like you put together a menu here, right,
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: and like at some point some of these you might
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: just break even on the night, which is fine. We're
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: not looking to get rich off the fucking draft people.
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: We're just looking to have a decent time before we
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: go to bed after the tenth pick is taken or
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: the ninth pick in my in my case with the Bears.
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: So that's what I would be doing.
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: And that's why I love these kind of drafts where
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: it's like you know, last year was kind of boring.
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: We had no quarterbacks like this canny pick a going
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: like whatever was the top twenty. It's just more fun
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: when there's drafts like this like that when we had
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: with the fields, the Trey Lance, Zach Wilson, and Trevor
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: Lawrence of like, you got four guys. Everyone's got different
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: opinions and it's all bobbled up the top there. So
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: once again, I just in the day and age we're
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: in right now, Chad, I just can't see quarterbacks drop.
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: It's not like it used to be where quarterbacks would slide.
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: It's just not like that anymore. Teams usually are aggressive
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: and move up to get their guy, which once again,
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: will never make sense the whole Lamar Jackson thing. Like
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: these teams are killing each other, step on each other's heads,
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: they move up in the draft and get their picks.
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: I just don't get it. Why not just.
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: Go out there and get Lamar a guy he already
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: knows established and he's like the same age as most
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: of these guys being drafted.
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: Lamore is twenty five, twenty six years old.
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: So you know, it's it's a tricky time a year, Chack,
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: because I'm getting so much information, so much of it's
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: just pure bs.
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: Another question coming in, and by the way, I think
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: I deserve a little bit of credit. What did I
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: say last year? There's no way a quarterback going to
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: be taken in the top ten? Malik Wilson isn't the answer?
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: Can you Pickett isn't the answer? There was all these rumblings.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: I know, I think I said there might not even
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: be a quarterback. There won't be more than one quarterback
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: taken in the first round. And I was right because
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: I said it was just going to be Kenny Pickett.
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: Here's what I'm saying this year, and I said it
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: last week over I said it on Tuesday over four
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: and a half quarterbacks taken in the first round. I
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: am a firm believer Hendon Hooker will sleep, will sneak
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: into the bottom of the first round. Some team who's
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: going to take a flyer on Hendon Hooker. You've seen
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: the last couple of days. These things are not by accident,
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: Hendon Hooker putting out videos of him practicing dropping back,
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: showing that his knee is okay. That's not oh hey,
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: it's Hendon Hooker. I'm looking to improve my draft status,
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: Like there's messaging there hendon Hooker's going in the first round.
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: Over from to be shocked.
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: I think Chad is down the head to him putting
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: out that video his agent. That was really smart, him
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: putting weight on that leg. I think he got the
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: surgery in December, so he's really well on track right
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: now in his recovery.
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: The Hooker thing will never make sense.
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: He played one year and one year had a one
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: good season at pass happy offense. And I don't know, Chad.
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: Maybe a team does fall in love with him and
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: move up. But I keep going back to our friend
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: Matthew Frieman told us about where if you statistically, if
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: you get three quarterbacks drafted on the top ten, statistically
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: the over four and a half is hit.
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: I think three out of four times it's happened.
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: So basically, Chad's gonna know pretty early on if he's
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: gonna if he's got a good better or not, because
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: if you three three quarterbacks go on the top ten,
• 36:36
  Speaker 3: that most likely means, you know, say, Athany Richardson is
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: the guy that drops, or will loves is the guy
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: that drops. A team will move up and take that guy.
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: Some teams I've heard a link to Will loves is
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: the Patriots. I think they picked fourteen maybe. Yeah, So
• 36:50
  Speaker 3: there's just different teams that could move up. The Hooker
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: thing makes sense in the sense that we've seen multiple
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: teams talk about the end of the first round taking him.
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: The one that jumped off right away was the the Rams.
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: Stafford's got these major back issues. You'll never you don't
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: know if he'll ever be right ever again. Even his
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: wife's talked about it, where he's had a bunch of
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: surgeries on his back now at this point because he
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: got beat up in Detroit. We all remember Stafford in Detroit. Yeah,
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: just a pinata. So I didn't believe it.
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: I'm trying again. I'm trying to be a rational guy here.
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: You got to throw out being rational in the draft.
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: It's just teams will meet with players and they'll fall
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: in love, say they kind of like the guy on tape.
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: If they meet with them, they're just like, holy shit,
• 37:27
  Speaker 3: this guy's got the vibe like this guy is a
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: leader of men. We want him to be the leader
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: of this team that can make Hooker a first round pick.
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: And we always talked about that fifth year option of
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: quarterbacks a big deal. Who screwed it up last year?
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: Was it the Yeah, I think it was the Giants.
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: They didn't sign Daniel Jones to a fifth year just
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: because he had struggled. Now they have to pay him
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: what was it, eighty million over four years or something
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: crazy like that. So you know, I'm looking at this
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: as Okay, I don't believe in Hooker, but the market does.
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: I didn't touch this number. I think Chad gave it
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: out and it was minus like one forty. Maybe it's
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: gone up even more now. People are really pounding the
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: over four and a half quarterbacks take. And my biggest
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: bet still was the over one and a half running
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: backs take. And I just Gipson to me the Alabama kid,
• 38:16
  Speaker 3: like we already talked about.
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: I see a bunch of.
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: Picks into the first round, the Eagles, the Lions, the Bengals,
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: a bunch of different teams that could take a running
• 38:25
  Speaker 3: back into the first round. Same thing goes with quarterbacks,
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: like you know, the Ravens trading back in and take
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: a little more pick thirty two. I really did not
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: see that coming that year in that draft. Kind of
• 38:35
  Speaker 3: in the same spot here with Hooker, like I've seen
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: the vikings linked to this kid. So there's a bunch
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: of different teams that you would be shocked to see
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: move up because they already have a quarterback. But it
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: would not be shocking in me or Chad, just because
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: we've seen it time and time again in the NFL.
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: Teams move up and take quarterbacks if they believe in them.
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: So it's which I want to make fun of your pick, Chad.
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: It's looking like a smart bet here taking the over
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: four and a half. It's just not a bet I
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: would make.
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: Milman has had really a lot of has had a
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: lot of smart bets. The last couple of shows. He's
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: fading the Jets fe d e fath faite fait and
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: he's he spotted that over four and a half for
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: the quarterbacks in the first round. Another question that just
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: came in Bjeon Robinson. Do we like him as a
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: top ten pick right now or do we feel like
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: the bloom is off, the rows off of that particular
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: hype train. If I can mix some metaphors.
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: Won't be scared.
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: People don't be scared just because a couple of monocks
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: have them out of the top ten. To stay the course,
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: I still think Robinson will be taking the top ten.
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: It's just most teams are like me.
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: You have a draft board. If you have this guy
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: up high on your draft board. Once Carter goes, that's
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: gonna be another guy gone that's gonna be high up
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: on people's draft boards. So that to me is a
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: big factory if Carter goes, If these dns go, the
• 39:53
  Speaker 3: Eagles are in play, Atlanta's in play. They're both teams
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: that they want D lineman. Both teams do Atlanta. I've
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: read there there GM wants to take a d lineman.
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: If those top three guys go right and Robinson falls
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: a little bit, I just see a team going up
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: and getting them. So I don't know if it's gonna
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: be the Bears that can move back. I don't know
• 40:12
  Speaker 3: if it's the Egos that can move back. But there's
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: just certain teams I wouldn't move up to take Robinson.
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: So to me, I could.
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: See the Eagles taking them. I could see Atlanta still
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: taking them. You still got a good number I betting them.
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: But the safest bet to me is the the part
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: with the Gibson, the over one and a half running backs.
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: Not that it's a lock, but it kind of feels
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: that way at this point where Gibson now has enough
• 40:32
  Speaker 3: enough love behind them, like guys like Peter King and
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: a couple other guys.
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: That have mocked it that the numbers moved.
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: I think it's minus one forty now minus one fifty
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: the over one and a half, it's minus two hundred
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: and a couple other books over one and a half running
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: backs in the first round. At this point, it kind
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: of feels like a shirt thing of Robinson will go
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: most likely top fifteen, and then Gibson will be in
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: that twenty to twenty five range. So the betting market,
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: to me, Robinson, you can still get plus one twenty
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: at a couple from the top ten. I still like
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: that number. It just feels like a fair value on
• 41:03
  Speaker 3: a guy that most teams have him as a top two,
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: top three best player on their big board.
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: Let's summarize a little bit, because we've gone rapid fire
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: through what I think are some really interesting picks. We
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: still like value in Bijon at top ten, probably plus
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: one twenty. We like over four and a half quarterbacks taken.
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: The price has moved considerably since we talked about it
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: last time. We like over one and a half running
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: backs taken in the first round. We also like the
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: idea of sprinkling different money on a combination of Levis
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: Stroud Richardson in picks two, three and four. One question
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: that came in is and find a Bryce Levice Stroud
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: going one, two three at plus two twenty. Do we
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: think there is value there? I think the answer is yes.
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: No.
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: Why you saying no, I'm saying yes.
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: Because we don't. It's not it just never goes out
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: the way. It's playing like that. That rarely rarely happens.
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: If we're lucky, Chad, if we're really lucky, we'll get
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: the top two picks. Right.
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: I talk all the time these guys who spend months, literally,
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: these nerds spend months and months and months doing this
• 42:31
  Speaker 3: mock drafts. Well, me and Chad are dominating the football season,
• 42:34
  Speaker 3: give it out picks every week. There's other guys who
• 42:37
  Speaker 3: literally don't even care about the NFL season. All they're
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: doing is prepping for this upcoming draft. If they are lucky,
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: they will get six picks or five picks exactly right
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: of what the player goes to what team.
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: And that's just how it is.
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: It's just at a thirty two, these guys, if they're lucky,
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: we'll get five, right, Chad, That's how shitty the mocking
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: draft process is. So I just I will never get
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: up people to tell bet boring. That's a boring bet
• 43:02
  Speaker 3: betting it to go that way. I just it's not
• 43:04
  Speaker 3: gonna be that simple. As much as I wanted to
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: go three straight quarterbacks, I could easily see Will Levis
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: being the second pick, Like these teams fall in love
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: with these different quarterbacks, and that just throw a whole
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: wrench and everything. So I would do what you did,
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: which is a crazy ass of going pick by pick,
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: picking different quarterbacks for each pick. It's just that to
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: me seems like a smarter move than try and nail
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: three picks in a row.
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: Like that's so damn hard to get right. So I
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: would stay away from that bet.
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, I think pretty soon we're gonna have to
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: put together a sizzle of just Simon saying, Chad's pretty smart,
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: Chad making a smart pick. Chad has a smart idea.
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: It feels like it's happening more and more. I get
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: smarter and sharper with every episode.
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: What a smart idea Boss, Great Idea.
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, He's the best. The draft is eight hours
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: away right now. I think we've done all we can
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: do here, Simon. I think all we can do is
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: let the chips fall where they may be excited about
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: our picks. I want to remind everybody the favorite podcast
• 44:09
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  Speaker 1: am Chad Millman. He is Simon Hunter. Producer is Matt Mitchell.
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