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The Good, the Bad, and the Unemployment: H1 Job Report Revealed! - Eddy Gifford #6141 · Financial Survival Network

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  Speaker 1: The rate of coming that The problem is is that
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  Speaker 1: when you look at like the last few times that
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  Speaker 1: this has happened after that first rake is when we've
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  Speaker 1: seen a significant downside in the stock market in general.
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  Speaker 2: You're listening to Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network, where you
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  Speaker 2: get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to
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  Speaker 2: thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival
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  Speaker 2: Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot
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  Speaker 2: com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival
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  Speaker 3: Ever, and welcome. This is Financial Survival Network. I'm your host,
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  Speaker 3: Carrie Letz. And hey, we just got some job numbers out,
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  Speaker 3: a few of them, not to mention the massive revision
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  Speaker 3: where eight hundred and eighteen thousand jobs just disappeared. I
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  Speaker 3: guess if it didn't exist, it couldn't disappear. But when
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  Speaker 3: you say it's there and it's not, then you got
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  Speaker 3: to revise. A expert in this area and all things economic,
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  Speaker 3: Eddie Gifford. Got a question for myself or Eddie, just
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  Speaker 3: shoot me at the email kl at Carrie Let's dot com. Eddie,
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  Speaker 3: great to have you back. So we've been hanging our
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  Speaker 3: hat for the past year and a half. Oh, we
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  Speaker 3: can't be in a recession. We got some great job numbers.
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  Speaker 3: Then they go revise it down eight hundred and eighteen thousand.
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  Speaker 3: You know, that is equivalent of seventy thousand jobs a
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  Speaker 3: month that we're vaporware here. What's the deal?
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, the crazy thing carry is we're continuing to
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  Speaker 1: see it. I mean, the last two months were revised
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  Speaker 1: down as well. As part of today's jobs report, we
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  Speaker 1: had a job report that chmian under and so it's
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  Speaker 1: it's kind of crazy because we've been leaning on this,
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  Speaker 1: you know, quote strong job market for the last year,
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  Speaker 1: year and a half. That's why we've been higher for longer,
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  Speaker 1: for as long as we've been and you and I
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  Speaker 1: have this discussed this and how we've been seeing these
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  Speaker 1: cracks out of the surface. How when you actually go
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  Speaker 1: out there and talk to the American people, like what
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  Speaker 1: the numbers were saying isn't what it didn't seem to
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  Speaker 1: be what was actually happening, And then bam we get
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  Speaker 1: hit with the oh, eight hundred thousand and other and
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  Speaker 1: and and then more recent revisions too, and it's just
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  Speaker 1: like one of those things where it's like like, who
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  Speaker 1: are like, who are they fooling? I mean, we saw
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  Speaker 1: it by just talking to people on a daily basis,
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  Speaker 1: and unfortunately, what it means is that the higher for
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  Speaker 1: longer was probably too high for too long, And now
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  Speaker 1: we have this yield kurt n in version, which which
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  Speaker 1: typically says hey like slow growth, a head and the whole.
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  Speaker 4: Idea of a soft landing. I think that that pretty much.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, this is off the table at this point,
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  Speaker 1: and it's just so frustrating because it's not like you
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  Speaker 1: couldn't see a lot of this stuff happening, and you
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  Speaker 1: can see this stuff coming, but you know, we one
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  Speaker 1: into I guess like curb inflation. Well, I mean we
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  Speaker 1: don't even know if that that's actually fixed at this point,
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  Speaker 1: but what we do know is that every day people
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  Speaker 1: are struggling and now it's really really showing up. And
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  Speaker 1: it's September and we've got an election around the quarter.
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  Speaker 1: So it's just like all this this leads to like
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  Speaker 1: buckle up because here comes to volatility.
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  Speaker 4: It's going to be wild and probably not so fun.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely, so interest rate cuts in the offering here.
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  Speaker 1: Well, I mean I think that power has already come
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  Speaker 1: forward and saying it's time to change policy, and that's
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  Speaker 1: always kind of a tell tale that. The nice thing
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  Speaker 1: about the feed is unless it's some type of black
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  Speaker 1: Swan event, they always tell you what they're going to
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  Speaker 1: do before they do it, so we know what cuts
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  Speaker 1: coming in September in a week. The question is how
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  Speaker 1: big is that cut. Is it going to be twenty
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  Speaker 1: five basis points? Is it going to be fifty basis points?
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  Speaker 1: And you know, I think it's a little bit mixed there.
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  Speaker 1: With all the revisions, you would lean toward a fifty
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  Speaker 1: pieces point cut, but at the same time, you know
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  Speaker 1: the inflation fear and everything, so the rates are coming.
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  Speaker 1: The problem is is that when you look at like
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  Speaker 1: the last few times that this has happened after that
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  Speaker 1: first rate cut is when we've seen significant downside in
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  Speaker 1: the stockmore hit in general. Don't know if that's going
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  Speaker 1: to happen again, but history typically rhymes and with everything
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  Speaker 1: else that we've been talking about, and the fact that
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  Speaker 1: unemployment or employment is.
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  Speaker 4: Just slowing down.
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  Speaker 1: Jobs are slowing down, unemployment rate isn't showing it yet
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  Speaker 1: because a lot of people are probably just fed up
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  Speaker 1: and like, I'm just not going to look anymore. And
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  Speaker 1: if I'm not going to look, or if I retire,
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  Speaker 1: I guess what, you don't get counted in those numbers anymore. So,
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  Speaker 1: you know, unemployment rate is very very misleading, especially given
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  Speaker 1: the circumstances that we have right now. So the cuts
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  Speaker 1: are coming, but unfortunately, I think the cuts are coming
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  Speaker 1: because they have to do it now, not because they
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  Speaker 1: want to do it to kind of start strewing some growth.
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  Speaker 1: They gain like they have to do it because if
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  Speaker 1: they don't, there's going to be absolutely no growth, and
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  Speaker 1: that's just the recipe for disaster generally speaking.
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  Speaker 3: Hey, so what about housing, the housing the major homebuilders,
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  Speaker 3: they're still doing not so bad, right their share prices.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, of course we're coming off of summer, and you know,
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  Speaker 1: the one of the primary building seasons. You know, if
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  Speaker 1: you're looking at the jobs report, where are the most
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  Speaker 1: jobs being added, it was in construction. That makes sense,
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  Speaker 1: like heading into like the last couple months before falling winter,
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  Speaker 1: and then those those payrolls typically slow down. And the
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  Speaker 1: thing about housing is that it's still the same story
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  Speaker 1: as it was a year ago. Like the builders are
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  Speaker 1: the only game in town because all of the resells,
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  Speaker 1: all the people that have the cheaper se interest rate,
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  Speaker 1: they're not selling, and so if you're going to buy
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  Speaker 1: a house, you only got one place to buy it,
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  Speaker 1: and that's for I'm a builder. Now more inventory is
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  Speaker 1: beginning to flood the market and that will hurt the
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  Speaker 1: builders over time, but it's still always a lag of fact,
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  Speaker 1: like people want the new house if they can get it,
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  Speaker 1: and the builders are still willing to buy down rates
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  Speaker 1: so that they get up a low market interust rate
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  Speaker 1: if you buy a new house. So until the resellers
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  Speaker 1: actually start competing with the builders from that standpoint, pain
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  Speaker 1: for closing costs, pain to buy the rate down, doing
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  Speaker 1: these different types of things, we're not really going to
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  Speaker 1: see builders get hit now. If things just slow down
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  Speaker 1: period demand destruction is demand instruction. Everything goes down in
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  Speaker 1: that scenario, but the builders continue to be the only
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  Speaker 1: gaming town.
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  Speaker 4: If you're only gaming town, it's hard to go down.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's for sure. Okay, So the question is have
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  Speaker 3: we really been in a recession all this time and
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  Speaker 3: all the numbers just manipulated and not really reflecting this
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  Speaker 3: state of reality.
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  Speaker 1: Like you said, well, if you talk to the everyday person,
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  Speaker 1: they've been in a recess for the last three to
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  Speaker 1: six months, and you know they've been having to make
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  Speaker 1: those decisions, Uh do I buy milk or do.
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  Speaker 4: I hype bread?
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  Speaker 1: Like the the the energy costs are going up. It's
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  Speaker 1: costing more to pay the power bills. You know, the
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  Speaker 1: cost of water is going up because everybody's in a drought,
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  Speaker 1: and so all of these things, you know, like they're
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  Speaker 1: inflationary from the standpoint of just the fact that there's
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  Speaker 1: higher demand not even doesn't even have to do with
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  Speaker 1: you know, the fact that we had all this stimulus
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  Speaker 1: that ramped up inflation everywhere else. So, uh, it would
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  Speaker 1: it would not surprise me if you know, things start
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  Speaker 1: getting really bad and then we get the word that says, oh,
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  Speaker 1: by the way, we've been in the recession for twelve
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  Speaker 1: months and and and uh that's that that that just
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  Speaker 1: seems to be the mL right now. The you know, ay,
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  Speaker 1: everything's good, everything's go, every good, everything's good. And then
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  Speaker 1: you get six months down the line, just kidding. We
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  Speaker 1: didn't really have those eight hundred thousand jobs, but we
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  Speaker 1: wanted to say that we did so that we could
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  Speaker 1: make the stock market keep going up.
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  Speaker 4: On every Bundy field warm and fuzzy inside.
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  Speaker 1: So it's not saying I'm good for the next president,
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  Speaker 1: that's for sure.
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  Speaker 4: It doesn't matter who it is.
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  Speaker 1: Like it like like things are, things are broken, but
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  Speaker 1: they're not gonna let them break break, I don't think
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  Speaker 1: and Dell whoever he gets in and gets in.
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  Speaker 3: So Warren Buffett's been on a little selling spree. He
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  Speaker 3: sold Apple. It sold half his Apple shares. UH Bank
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  Speaker 3: of America. He sold six billion of that. As if
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  Speaker 3: we didn't need another negative, negative indicator.
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  Speaker 1: Right, well, it's one of those things. But big but
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  Speaker 1: warm Buffet was never going to sell Make America. And
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  Speaker 1: and and you know you could say, well, he's trimming
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  Speaker 1: positioned in Apple like by half. I mean, come on,
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  Speaker 1: that's that's that's that's a lot. And he's sitting on
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  Speaker 1: the pilot cash the biggest pile of cash. And if
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  Speaker 1: you remember, warm Buffett has two rules. Number one, don't
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  Speaker 1: lose numb, don't lose money. Number two, don't forget rule
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  Speaker 1: number one. And so for whatever amazing rule number one
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  Speaker 1: right exactly, And so for a reason he's in this
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  Speaker 1: situation where he's like, hey, I want to have dry
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  Speaker 1: powder available, and you know, part of it has been
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  Speaker 1: that he's had really really good returns. I mean, Apple
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  Speaker 1: has been amazing over the last ten years. But I
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  Speaker 1: also think that he's getting ready to pounce. And he's
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  Speaker 1: the guy that says, be greedy when people are fearful.
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  Speaker 1: If fear is not there yet, but it will be there.
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  Speaker 1: And when it happens, it happens fast. And he gets
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  Speaker 1: really crazy, really fast. And that's where you're going to
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  Speaker 1: hear about Warren Buffet picking up all these new companies,
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  Speaker 1: these good businesses at very attractive pricing levels.
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  Speaker 4: So he's smart investor. You know things are near the top.
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  Speaker 1: You look at like all the earnings multiples, you look
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  Speaker 1: at all the pees, you look.
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  Speaker 4: At all that stuff.
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  Speaker 1: We are any overvalued market, like, there's no doubt about
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  Speaker 1: it if you're if you're using like Kate Mitchers for
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  Speaker 1: secular bears, like, we've been there for a while. And
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  Speaker 1: so he's just getting ready. And again that's not exactly
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  Speaker 1: like a great indicator. When the person who's considered the
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  Speaker 1: greatest investor of all time is building a significant cash position.
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  Speaker 3: He's sitting on two hundred and seventy seven billion dollars
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  Speaker 3: in cash, right, So what does that tell you and
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  Speaker 3: we'll have to see the future reports. If he continues
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  Speaker 3: to liquidate, but you know, the market takes a hit,
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  Speaker 3: then he'll go back and probably buy some of those
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  Speaker 3: same stocks back and increase his ownership position in Apple
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  Speaker 3: and in Bank of America, or maybe he'll switch to
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  Speaker 3: another sector.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah. Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: One. The other thing is is that you know you're
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: going to have depending on what happens in November, you're
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: going to have a lot of activity because as people
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  Speaker 1: think one person's going to get in or the other,
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  Speaker 1: they're going to buy or sell. You know, a lot
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  Speaker 1: of like tax motivated selling, I'm sure because of the
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  Speaker 1: RAMITNP and if people are scared the taxes are going
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: to go up, you know, let's just take the twenty
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  Speaker 1: percent now and not get hit with a twenty eight
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: or thirty three percent later type thing. We're seeing the
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: same thing with people asking about roth Ken versions with
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  Speaker 1: sunsets happening in two years, and people are just like,
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  Speaker 1: I just want to I just want to pay the tax,
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  Speaker 1: only know what it is, and so so there you're
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  Speaker 1: there's there's a lot of reasons to exit right now,
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  Speaker 1: whether it's tax monivator, just the fact that we're near
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  Speaker 1: our top. But at the same time, if you're gonna exit,
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  Speaker 1: you got to have a reason.
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  Speaker 4: To get back in.
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  Speaker 1: And I think that that's the thing that's missing from
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  Speaker 1: a lot of portfolios in general, is we buy for
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  Speaker 1: no real reason, and then when we buy, we don't
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: have our reason to get out. You should always have
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: a reason to get out. You should follow reason, and
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: then when you get out, you should have a reason
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: to get in again. And you should follow that. And
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: if you can stick to your discipline, that's your opportunity
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  Speaker 1: to win compared to like a passive portfolio. But unfortunately,
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: a lot of people get emotional, and that's the thing
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  Speaker 1: that ends up hurting us. And when Warren Buffett is
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: buying the stock, you know, unfortunately the every day investor
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  Speaker 1: is the one selling it.
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  Speaker 3: You self. Interesting, all right, Well, I guess we're going
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: to find out more as time goes by. Hey, the
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: dollar is definitely well below it's frior levels. It's you know,
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  Speaker 3: trading close to one hundred. Generally, when Republicans are going
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: to win the White House, the dollar takes a hit.
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  Speaker 3: And we saw, you know last time, the last election,
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  Speaker 3: the dollar was going up, which was definitely an indication
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  Speaker 3: of who is going to win that election. I guess
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: we're just going to have to see Eddie. Just tell
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  Speaker 3: us where we find you, how we connect with you
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: on the web.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, you can just google Eddie Gifford and you'll find me.
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  Speaker 1: I'm right there at the top. But the website is
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  Speaker 1: tactivewealth dot com slash Eddie Dash Gifford, and you can
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: go there. You can see how we do things, kind
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: of learn a little bit more about our background.
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  Speaker 3: You know.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: We always encourage anytime you're checking out a financial advisor
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: that or broker scheck, look them up. Make sure that
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: they don't have any crazy things that they've done in
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: the past.
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  Speaker 4: But yeah, we're here for you.
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  Speaker 1: The flexibility that you need in your portfolio right now
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: is something that we practice on a daily basis. We're
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: not going to ride that roller coaster down to the bottom.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: We're going to make sure that we're trying to protect
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  Speaker 1: you if that catalyst does happen that really springs us
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  Speaker 1: into this crazy recession that we're all worried about.
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  Speaker 3: All right, well, hey, hopefully it'll be short and not
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  Speaker 3: too deep. But he always pays to be optimistic. The
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  Speaker 3: link to Eddie's site is in the show. That's this
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. Please go there
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: check out his site. While you're there, sign up for
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: your free newsletter Eddie. It's always a pleasure. Gutting questions
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: or comments, Shoot me an email kl at Carrie lets
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: dot com. Eddie will talk to you again real sin.
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: All right, Thanks, Kerry, have a good one.
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to carry Letz's Financial Survival Network your
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,