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The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Dead. Saylor Just Proved It | Simply SatoSHE · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Last week was one of the craziest weeks in finance we've
• 0:03
  seen since COVID, maybe even since the 2008 mortgage crisis.
• 0:07
  The S&P 500, what some call American savings account, fell
• 0:12
  10%. Oil prices continue to soar,
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  hitting some of their highest levels ever.
• 0:17
  And President Trump posted the most unhinged threat against
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  Iran on Easter Sunday that the street called, and I'm quoting
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  directly here, the most unhinged geopolitical threat crypto
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  markets have ever had to price in.
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  And our magic Internet money stayed pretty much stable.
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  In fact, it's had a little mini pump and gone above $72,000 a
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  coin. And right now, around the same
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  time, the man who's been buying Bitcoin at a pace that makes
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  BlackRock look like a casual observer dropped a post that
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  confirmed what a lot of us have been thinking.
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  Everyone who has been waiting for the bottom timing their buys
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  around the halving, modeling our bear market lows might be be
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  operating on a completely broken thesis at this point.
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  And when you find out exactly how much Bitcoin Sailor is
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  buying every single day, you're going to ask yourself whether
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  waiting for that bottom was actually worth it.
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  Because if he's right about the cycle, the bottom might actually
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  already be behind us. Welcome back to Satoshi.
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  Let's get into it. Let me set the scene because the
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  week that we just had was just genuinely out of control.
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  Trump posted on Easter Sunday an expletive filled message on
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  Truth Social about hitting Iranian power plants and
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  bridges. Markets opened Monday pricing
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  worst cases. The S&P 500 fell roughly 10% in
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  two days. Bonds got hit.
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  Oil spiked above $105.00, but Bitcoin went down only about
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  1.5%. And as of today, when Trump
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  reverse course, it's actually gone up above $72,000.
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  For context, gold has been struggling through this entire
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  conflict. So yeah, the S&P is in
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  correction territory. Bitcoin is back at $72,000 on
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  ceasefire hopes. If you'd been offline for two
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  weeks and someone showed you only the Bitcoin chart, you'd
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  think it had been a quiet fortnight.
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  And that's not at all what happened.
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  It never happened and the fact that Bitcoin processed all of
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  that chaos and ended up where it started, well, that's basically
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  the story. OK, now let's talk about the
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  man, the myth, the legend, Michael Saylor, because this is
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  the number that I think changes everything.
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  Over the past six months, Strategy has been buying an
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  average of 715 Bitcoin every single day.
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  That's 159,000 of the total daily mind Bitcoin supply.
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  Every day, sailors buying more Bitcoin than the entire network
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  produces and then some. And this week while the episode
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  was being put together, Strategy announced another purchase. 4871
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  Bitcoin, 329.9 million in one transaction.
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  That single buy represents 333% of everything the entire Bitcoin
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  network mined today. Their total stack is now 700 and
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  66,970 Bitcoin. That's like around 4% of the
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  total supply of Bitcoin, which is just insane.
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  Now compare that to BlackRock, the world's largest asset
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  manager, the company that launched the ETF that was
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  supposed to be the institutional gateway to Bitcoin.
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  Year to date in 2026, BlackRock has accumulated roughly 8484
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  Bitcoin. Rookie numbers compared to
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  Strategy because they've accumulated 89,599 Bitcoin in
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  the same period. Sailor is out buying BlackRock
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  literally 12:50. Bitcoin has one.
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  Global consensus is that BTC is digital capital.
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  The four year cycle is dead. Price is now driven by capital
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  flows. Bank and digital credit will
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  determine bitcoins growth trajectory.
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  Read that last line again. Price is now driven by capital
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  flows. Not by halvings, not by retail
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  sentiment cycles, by institutional capital.
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  The kind that doesn't panic sell on a Truth Social post and
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  doesn't wait for a chart pattern to look right.
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  This is the man buying 715 Bitcoin a day telling you the
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  rules of the game have changed. And when Sailor talks about
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  capital flows driving Bitcoin, the question for the rest of us
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  is whether your Bitcoin is actually in your control.
• 4:49
  That's where the Bitcoin way comes in.
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• 5:03
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• 5:06
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• 5:09
  Tell them Satoshi sent you. Here's where Sailor's thesis
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  connects to what we actually saw in the markets this week.
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  Finance Research published a case study this week documenting
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  something significant. Bitcoin's correlation with
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  global monetary policy is fundamentally shifted.
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  Bitcoin is no longer just reacting to what the Fed does.
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  It's becoming what they call a leading pricer, anticipating
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  macro moves before traditional markets price them in.
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  For years, Bitcoin critics called it a risk on asset, a
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  leverage bet on the NASDAQ, something people bought when
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  they felt good and sold when they got scared.
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  And honestly, for a long time, the data kind of supported that.
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  But this week tells a totally different story.
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  S&P down 10%, gold struggling, bonds getting hit, oil going
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  haywire. And Bitcoin is only down 1.5%
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  and then back up to over 72,000. We covered this in a previous
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  episode. Gold was down 22% during the
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  geopolitical crisis, and Bitcoin was up 8%.
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  We're seeing the exact same dynamic play out again.
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  And a macro analyst named Fernando from Bitcoin Perception
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  put it perfectly when he first stated decoupling doesn't mean
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  Bitcoin goes up while everything else stays flat.
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  It means everything else goes down a lot and Bitcoin doesn't
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  go down as much. That's it.
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  That's the whole thing, and we're watching it happen in real
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  time. There's a structural reason for
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  this that didn't exist two years ago.
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  Sailors bids in the market every single day regardless of what
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  Trump posts. ETFs are absorbing every whale
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  sell. Institutional holders don't
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  panic. The base of Bitcoin ownership
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  has fundamentally changed, and that changes how the asset
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  behaves. So let's get into this thesis
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  Sailor is actually making because it's worth unpacking
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  carefully. The four year cycle theory says
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  Bitcoin halves. Minor rewards get cut.
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  Supply shock hits. Price pumps, retail piles in,
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  price crashes, repeat. It's been the dominant framework
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  for Bitcoin investing over a decade, and it worked until now.
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  And here's what changed The 2024 halving happened, but this time,
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  when the miners were selling less, ETF buyers were already in
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  the market, absorbing supply before the halving even
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  triggered its usual dynamic BlackRock Fidelity strategy.
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  They were already buying at scale.
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  The supply shock that used to take 12 to 18 months to work
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  through the market got process in weeks.
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  Coindesk reported something fascinating this week.
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  Bitcoin whales, long term holders who bought at much lower
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  prices, are selling more aggressively than almost any
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  point on record right now. They're taking profits and
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  they're getting out near the top.
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  And at the same time, ETFs and strategy are absorbing every
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  single one of those cells near record highs.
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  This is a historic changing of the guard.
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  Old money is leaving and the new institutional money is arriving.
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  And the new money doesn't operate on a four year cycle.
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  It operates on capital allocation frameworks, treasury
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  management strategies, and sovereign wealth fund mandates.
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  These entities don't look at a halving chart and set a timer.
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  They look at bitcoin's role as a global reserve asset and then
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  they buy. Saylor isn't just predicting
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  that the cycle is dead, he's one of the primary reasons it's
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  dead. When you're buying 715 Bitcoin a
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  day, you don't need a cycle. You are the cycle.
• 8:43
  And if this cycle argument is convincing and you're thinking
• 8:47
  maybe waiting for the bottom isn't the strategy it used to
• 8:50
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  nothing. So sign up at
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  bitcoinwell.com/simply BTCI want to bring this all the way back
• 9:25
  down to earth? If Sailor is right, if the four
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  year cycle is dead and the price is now driven by institutional
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  capital flows, then the strategy of wait for the bottom, buy the
• 9:36
  dip, ride the cycle is no longer the obvious play that it used to
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  be. And that's pretty normal because
• 9:43
  that's just how markets tend to work.
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  They always do the opposite of what you think that is going to
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  happen because the institutions don't wait.
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  They accumulate systemically every single day, 715 Bitcoin at
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  a time. That's not advice.
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  I'm not a financial advisor and this isn't financial advice
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  ever. But it is a question worth
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  sitting with. If the people with the deepest
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  pockets and the best analysis in the world are buying every day,
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  regardless of the price, what does that tell you about the
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  floor? Charles Schwab confirmed this
• 10:16
  week that it's launching direct spot Bitcoin trading in H120266
• 10:21
  point $2 trillion in client assets about to have a Bitcoin
• 10:26
  buy button. Russia is formalizing crypto
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  legalization. The Clarity Act vote is coming.
• 10:32
  The regulatory calendar this week is stacked.
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  The infrastructure keeps being built, the institutions keeps
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  showing up, and Bitcoin through a 10% S&P correction through oil
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  above $105 went to $72,000. The bear market and price
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  doesn't match the bull market in everything underneath it.
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  And the gap between what that chart says and what fundamentals
• 10:56
  say is exactly where conviction gets built.
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• 11:23
  Do not sleep on this I've been in the space long enough to have
• 11:28
  watched Bitcoin get to clear dead through every crisis, every
• 11:31
  correction, every bear market, every.
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  This time is different, downward and every single time the people
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  who held looked up one day and realized that the thing they
• 11:41
  were holding had just quietly done something extraordinary
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  this week while the world was losing its mind.
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  Bitcoin has gone up to 72,000. Sailor says that the four year
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  cycle is dead, the institutions are buying every day and the
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  decoupling is happening right now in front of us, not with a
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  rocket candle, but with a 1.5% drawdown when everything else
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  fell 10%. That's the signal.
• 12:08
  Keep stacking. Thanks for watching simply
• 12:10
  Bitcoin Satoshi, don't forget to smash the like button.
• 12:13
  Share the show with your friends.
• 12:14
  Drop a comment below because I read them all.
• 12:17
  Follow me on X at Internet Sophie and as always, stack,
• 12:20
  slay and stay bullish baby.