Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / Riding the China Rollercoaster | Grain Market Talk May 22nd, 2026

Transcript

Riding the China Rollercoaster | Grain Market Talk May 22nd, 2026 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:03
  SPEAKER_01: You're locked in to the Grain Market Talk Podcast.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_01: Fast updates, market movers, and the green news you need right now.
• 0:12
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• 0:22
  SPEAKER_02: All right, hey everybody.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_02: Thanks for joining the Grain Market Talk Podcast.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_02: My name's Lucas Peters, filling in here for Mr.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_02: Miner, who is out and about a little bit today.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_02: I got Jaden Houslog in the podcast studio with me today.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_02: How's it going, Jaden?
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: It's going good, Lucas.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: How about yourself?
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_02: Well, we're doing pretty good because uh I know we're going into a Memorial Day weekend, um, but it's raining right now as we're recording the podcast, which I'll be honest, is something I think everybody kind of needs in uh most of our listening area, as still pretty dry out there, even after the rain this past weekend.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_02: But I do want to mention uh please click the link in the uh description below and try to sign up for our daily market commentary uh or check out our website, professionalagmarketing.com, and see everything we got to offer out there.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, find links to past episodes and uh lots of information on their crop livestock, uh everything you need for all your risk management.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so we're gonna get started here on the uh on the podcast and kind of looking back on the week, Jaden.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, you know, the last week that seemed like was supposed to be the big market moving week, right?
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_02: We had lots of information.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_02: We had the WASDI report, we had uh Trump going to China, and the grain markets really didn't respond well at the end of last week.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_02: And then we're sitting here on Sunday, and we got a kind of a neat tweet uh about China agreeing to buy a bunch of agricultural products from the United States, and that spurred everything on Monday.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_02: So uh Jaden, what uh what can you tell us after reviewing that information that came out in the reaction here early in the week?
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Lucas, like you said, uh last week the grain markets went home pretty disappointed.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, a lot of people are asking the question man, is that is the high end this market?
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that all changed Sunday night.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: There is uh about an hour before the open there, um, the White House released a fact sheet, and that showed that China will purchase at least$17 billion per year of USA goods uh through 2028, and that's addition to the soybean purchase commitments of the 25 million metric tons.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_00: So the that total is around 28 billion.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: But the important thing to remember here is the 17 billion of non-soy products, and if we look at that um over history, the last time we reached a number like that is 2022.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: And in 2022, China did buy U.S.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_00: corn there.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: So um the funds, you know, they they got what they wanted.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: They saw that headline and they bought it up uh Monday, like Lucas said, up 21 cents there on corn, and we haven't seen that since 2023.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, so kind of an awesome way to start out the week, right?
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_02: That um now we have uh if you've been in this business long, uh we've had always, I shouldn't say always, but you we all have memories of different China deals and packages uh that have been made in the past.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_02: You know, we still refer to phase one uh a deal that went was quite a few years ago and now um but it's always good news when they do enter into an agreement and kind of a nice result coming out of that meeting, and so definitely a kind of a buy the rumor, uh, which is maybe a little more than a rumor, but a long way from fact yet.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and so we we jumped out to uh a big uh big start there on Monday and got back quite a bit of the the uh market, at least on the core market that we lost there end of last week.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_02: But of course, that's not the only international news going on uh as we sit uh in the world today, Jaden.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_02: We still have a conflict going in uh or on in Iran.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and I know there's been different tweets and messages.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_02: Uh what uh I guess as we look past or over the past week, what are some of the takeaways you have on the Iran conflict?
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so after Monday's trade, it seemed like the grain market needed something new to trade, needed you know, fresh news, and and it didn't really have anything to trade after that Monday.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_00: So it continued as a trade the uh the Middle Eastern conflict, like Lucas said there.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: So on the crude oil market looking at that in the past week.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: So Wednesday we did see a sharp sell-off there as Trump put out a tweet that uh the US and Iran are nearing ending this war.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: Um so we did see a sharp sell-off there, and it brought the grains right back down with it.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_00: So a lot of those gains we did have on Monday, we've taken a lot of those back.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: But if you look at a December corn chart here, um still offer some great support here.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, that blue trend line there, that the upper trend line is still intact, so definitely don't want to violate that too bad here.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_00: But um seems like we we really need fresh bullish news to keep feeding the feeding the bulls in this market going forward in this greens.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and and when we have these international things going on, that of course can lend itself to bullish news, but of course it can lend itself to non-bullish news just as quickly uh as like you said.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_02: We've the this week was a great example of that.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_02: How on Monday we get some good news coming out of China on a potential trade deal with uh a lot of ag products, kind of set everything on fire, and then all of a sudden, well, this Iran war uh might be over soon and we could give up a lot of the commodities.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_02: But of course, I haven't seen a tweet that the Iran war is officially over.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_02: Uh just a lot of tweets back and forth on that.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_02: So definitely something uh we want to watch.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_02: And but I as we I don't know, um kind of transition here a little bit, maybe to a little more local uh area, Jaden.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_02: Uh we are in the early stages of the growing season, and that of course can provide challenges and uh and opportunities as well.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_02: But as we look uh or talk a little bit on what we're seeing locally in our area, uh just a quick review of how the growing season has gone.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_02: You know, we um for the most part, planting conditions have been really good, right?
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_02: So planting is, I'm gonna say, pretty much wrapped up in our area.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_02: Or if you're listening to the podcast, I know there's a few guys fighting a few wet pockets, maybe in northern South Dakota or or North Dakota here and there.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_02: But as a whole, the planting season's over.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_02: Early growth has been very, very slow, uh, primarily driven by temperature, right?
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_02: So we planted into good conditions, but we've had spurts of heat followed by uh longer periods of cool weather.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, but the most prominent condition has been dry.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_02: And uh we the large area really needs a shot of rain.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, this past weekend we did get some rainfall.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_02: Didn't uh didn't we if we have a map there, Jaden.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_02: What can you tell us on what we saw for rainfall here this past uh past week?
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Sunday Monday offered some you know severe weather there, especially for those dry areas, like you're saying.
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_00: Was really looking closely at that eastern South Dakota, eastern Nebraska area, and we did get some rainfall there uh Sunday Monday.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_00: Did miss out there on northeastern Nebraska and eastern South Dakota.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_00: So um this is just actually a a week precip map here.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: So looking out at a week here, a lot of rain out there in the southeastern United States, there where a lot of that drought is creeping into the corn belt.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but looks like we'll we'll keep that away over here the next week.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_00: But um over the next week, eastern South Dakota looks like they'll get some rain in as well as Nebraska, maybe not as much as they want, but they're getting some at least.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, that's a good good point and a good visual to show uh that it is starting to rain, at least in in our area.
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_02: And I know one of the things that well when you listen to different weathermen or follow them on Twitter, one of the things they say is to for Midwest weather, at least where we're at in the Midwest, uh, you should watch uh Arkansas.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_02: Uh if when Arkans if Arkansas starts getting rain early in the season, that should be good things for rainfall into our area.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_02: Well, as you pointed out, in the southeast there, significant rainfall over uh the past week, and kind of good to see because that should kind of open up that gulf moisture up for us in the summer months.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_02: And maybe we're starting to see a little bit of that, right?
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_02: We got some rain Sunday, we're getting some rain again today.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, of course, maybe not quite as much as we need or would like to see, but everybody, every little bit helps.
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, you mentioned the severe weather on Sunday, and I did bring up uh I'll have Kate bring up a little hail map.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_02: So uh definitely has some storms moved through on Sunday.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_02: And and Sunday was one of those days where uh, or coming off this past weekend, it was kind of warm, it was a little humid, and conditions were right to uh put some storms in our area.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_02: And so this kind of picture is uh a picture that one of our crop insurance companies provides on locations of hail.
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_02: And uh this past Sunday evening, you can see a pretty significant swath of decent size hail for this early in the growing season.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, pretty significant uh size hail stretching from southeast South Dakota.
• 9:31
  SPEAKER_02: You can see estimated uh over three to four inch hail there, um, down around all kind of west of Yankton, uh stretching up through Sioux Falls and Laverne and north and east from there, and it kind of died out after that, but not something uh we want to see very often.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_02: Uh did damage a few of our early uh growth on our crops, right?
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_02: Corn, not a lot of damage because the growing point's still below ground, but we did have some replant going on on soybeans that that did cut get cut off.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_02: So just something to watch, something to be aware of.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_02: Um, it is a good reminder.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_02: Mid-May, you get a hail storm, severe weather.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, make sure you're prepared and your family's prepared for severe weather this summer, but also on your crops.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_02: If you're interested in looking at uh adding a hail policy, if you haven't done so, uh maybe something to take a peek at that we got this uh reminder.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_02: I did want to mention uh a one thing, Jaden.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_02: You know, I've been getting a lot of questions as we're doing some acreage reporting on the crop insurance about Arc PLC sign up.
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_02: Uh that farm program sign up will take place in 2026, but just estimate it to be a little later in the year, September, October time frame is is what uh one uh one guy I was talking to uh has suggested.
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_02: So don't uh delay reporting in your planted acres to FSA uh with get your 578 reports.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_02: Still have to do that, and when the sign-up period comes out, uh be watching for that.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_02: And the last thing I did want to mention on government programs is the SDRP program, which was kind of a been a long program.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_02: I think signups started last fall for that.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_02: You know, we had phase one and phase two.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_02: Uh there was just an additional payment issued on that early May.
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_02: That was originally 35% of the potential was paid, another 35% was paid the first week of May.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_02: And that program, guys, now got extended till the end of August.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_02: But if it comes in under budget, there'll be an additional top-up payment uh for phase one and phase two as well.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_02: So something to uh potentially look for uh in early September if we come in under budget on that SDRP program.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_02: So uh with that, Jaden, you know what one thing as we roll into Memorial Day weekend, it's kind of our first of uh three three-day weekends through early summer, right?
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_02: We have Memorial Day weekend, we have Juneteenth, and then we have July 4th.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, and we always, you know, kind of that's a key uh time in the growing season.
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_02: It's early on, we're watching weather, we're watching rainfall, we're watching heat.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_02: Um, what are some things that we should be looking at uh as as corn soybean farmers?
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_02: What are some uh ways that uh we should be looking at our grain marketing plan as we enter this early summer season?
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, if Cade pulls up the seasonal chart here, Lucas.
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_00: Um, so I have highlighted on this chart here.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_00: So the first line there, the blue line that goes up and down there is May 7th.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_00: So in the yellow line uh line there is December 26th future.
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_00: So if you look at that, we we really like to make a peak there early May as we're starting to get the crop in the ground, um starting to emerge and such.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_00: And also then you look at June 19th, that really sticks out to me around Father's Day.
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_00: Um, over the last five-year average, 10 year, 15, and so on, you can see there we we tend to make a spike during that time.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_00: So I I would say for the grain producer for now on, over the next month, I would really be thinking about selling rallies over the next few months here or the next month here.
• 13:11
  SPEAKER_00: And as as weather looks good as of right now, like we just previously mentioned, rainfall's not really uh a problem right now.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, if we get any type of weather hookup, you you probably want to do something about it going forward.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I think that's an awesome thing to remember in these in the times we're in now of China news, tweets, Iran conflict.
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, this time of year from early May through mid-June, the seasonal patterns usually still hold.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_02: And it's a good reminder, Jaden, to don't be laxadaisical on your plan, uh, have a plan in place, put some order, working orders in place uh to take advantage of those opportunities when they present themselves.
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_02: Because as your chart showed, they usually don't last very long.
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_02: Nope.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_02: And once you get kind of in that end of June, they fall off pretty quick.
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_02: So let's not miss those opportunities as they arise.
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_02: All right.
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_02: Anything uh to wrap up the week here, Jaden?
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_02: No, Lucas.
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_02: I'll just tell everyone to have a great three day week in your That sounds great.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you for joining our Grain Market Talk podcast and have a safe weekend.