Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 7/21/26: Trump Threatens Iran Payback, Trump Rages Over Bibi Arrest Push, China Overtakes US On AI, Biological War Plot

Transcript

7/21/26: Trump Threatens Iran Payback, Trump Rages Over Bibi Arrest Push, China Overtakes US On AI, Biological War Plot · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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• 0:37
  Speaker 2: We do lots continuing to break with regard to Iran.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: Apparently Trump is choosing between a negotiated deal and a
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: major military operation will break all of that down for you.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: He's also coming to the defense of Benjamin Netnahuo, as
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: Zorn floats the idea of arresting him when he's intown.
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: In September, China has erased our AI lead.
• 0:56
  Speaker 4: There's a possibility that the.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: Trump administration is going to ban the Chinese open source models.
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: Big debate here, extremely extremely consequential for the economy, the future,
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: all those things. So we will break down what we
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: understand about this. Annie Jacobson is going to join us.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: She has a new book sounding a dire warning about
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: the potential threat of biological weapons. Actually also ties in
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: with the AI block because that enables makes it more
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: easy to produce these weapons. And I've got an interview
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: today with Representative Adam Smith. He is the top Democrat
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: on the Armed Services Committee.
• 1:27
  Speaker 4: They actually reached out to us.
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: He wanted to have a conversation, slast debate about the
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: socialist the future of the Democratic Party. But he also
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: sager he's the ranking member on Armed Services just voted
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: for that Thomas Massey Amendment after a career supporting Israel.
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: Apak is kicking him to the curb. He's also the
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: most consequential or one of the most consequential people in
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: Washington with regard to that nbaa provision that would tie
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: us in with the Israeli military. So I'm really excited
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: to talk to him and press him on those issues.
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's actually pretty cool that he reached out to us,
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: and again just to underscore the House Armed Services or
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: Ask as the Washington nerds call it, is genuinely besides
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: the Appropriations Committee, the most important committee in all of Congress.
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  Speaker 1: So to be the ranking member.
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  Speaker 3: You get to decide what gets in debate, what comes
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: out of committee before it reaches the overall floor. You
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: have immense, immense power in this town, and so it's
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: very interesting that he wants to stop by and to
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: debate Slash talk to Crystals come.
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  Speaker 1: will too.
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  Speaker 3: other people find the show. But as Crystal said, let's
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: go ahead and start with the situation with Iran remains
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: incredibly precarious. And we'll start with this from Donald Trump quote,
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: every time Iran kills an American soldier, they will pay
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: for that killing many times over. The directive has now
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: been passed on to the Secretary of Wars Pete Hegstath,
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: Chairman of the Joint Use of Staff, Daniel Kine, and
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: every other leader in the military. So obviously not really
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: something you want to see if you are hoping for
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: any potential slow down or cease fire. We also had
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: multiple ships in the Strait of Horror Moves, I mean
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: beyond count at this time. I recommend if you want
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: real time, you can go to the UK mto the
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: Maritime Authority. They put out a lot of the directives
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: about which ships are on fire. We don't have an
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: exact count of this morning's more than three or four
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: just in the last twenty four hours. Some video actually
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: coming out of the Strait we can show all of you.
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: This purports to show a Saudi vessel which was on
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: fire in the Strait of Horror Moves. This also comes
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: as multiple other vessels were on fire and had to
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: be abandoned in place, with the crew actually abandoning ship
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: in some of these cases or calling for distress. Now
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: at the same time, there is a critical decision point
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: here in Washington breaking this morning. Let's put it up
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: here on the screen from Barack Revid Basically, President Trump
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: quote is nearing a decisive fork in the Iran war,
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: with US and Israeli officials envisioning only two viable end games.
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: Option one, you will pursue a new ten day ceasefire
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Option two, you
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: will launch a massive joint military campaign with Israel to
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: force Tehran's capitulation. Obviously, ten day ceasefire does not have,
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: in my opinion, a very very good chance of coming forward.
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: I was listening to our friend Tree de Parsi, he
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: was on Al Jazeera overnight.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Gave his immediate reaction.
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: Basically, he said, at this point, Iran has no choice
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: but to conclude that any ten day ceasefire would simply
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: be used as a way to get oil prices back
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: down without reaching the critical nexus point before they are
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: then bombed again and on and off and on and off,
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: with no memorandum of understanding, no reignition of the peace process,
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: the option to there being a quote massive military campaign
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: to take out Iran's nuclear program, And well, at this
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: point is I'm really sad about it.
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: I thought it was obliterated soccer what happens supposed.
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: To but I mean to even say it would be
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: about the nuclear program is disingenuous. This entire war is
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: the battle of horn moves. That's really what you could
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: call it. So the vast majority of the strikes, if
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: you're tracking inside of Iran, are either coming at nuclear facilities,
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: some indication potentially of civilian infrastructure, and you can always
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: see it lights.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Up right there along this strait.
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: But the fact that Iran retains that capability to shut
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: down the straight of horror.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: Moves to target all of these different vessels.
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: On top of by the way, brand new announcement just
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: this morning, the Whothi's clarified we're not just shooting at
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: Saudi ships. Any vessel that docks at a Saudi port,
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: you are liable to be hit.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: When you're in the Bab al Mandeb straight.
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: Obviously they still have Suez, they have a few other
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: ways that they can get out, so we shouldn't say
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: it's like a total closure, but it is adding pressure
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: to the global oil market at this time. So a
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: resumption of the war with Israel, all behind the scenes,
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: seems incredibly likely. Again, as of right now, things could
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: certainly change.
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: And the problem with the Suez Canal is it's not
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: large enough to accept the super large tankers that they
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: typically use for oil. But I'm sure they will try
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: to find as many workarounds as they possibly can because
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: the situation is very, very dire. Anytime I hear tree
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: to Parsi sounding negative on the possibilities of diplomacy and negotiations,
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: I pay attention because obviously he's a big believer in diplomacy.
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: I think he was genuinely optimistic when the MoU was signed.
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: Someone said, you know, this has a possibility because both
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: sides really don't want to go to all out war.
• 6:49
  Speaker 4: So when I hear.
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: Him being pessimistic about the near term prospects of any
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: sort of resolution, that is a real warning sign for
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: me that things are really quite dire.
• 6:59
  Speaker 4: At the same time, you know, the.
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: Okay, so let's say that there's some new military a
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: where to take cargyle and we bomb Pickaxe Mountain? Whatever,
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: What is this even going to lead to? Now, the
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: idea I think that's offered by the by the Hawks
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: in this situation is oh, we'll create more leverage so
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: that we get a better deal in the negotiations. Well,
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: our own intel community says that's very unlikely to be
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: the case. We can put a nine up on the
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: screen and look, this won't be surprised to any of
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: you guys watching this show, but it's still interesting when
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: our own intelligence community comes to the same conclusion. They
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: offer a pessimistic view of new rounds of US military
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: strikes against Iran. They are unlikely to have a significant
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: impact on Iran or soften a RAN's negotiating position. Current
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: and former officials tell these journalists. So you know, the
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: experts insider are saying, hey, guys, just like this hasn't
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: worked up to this point and has only actually weakened
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: our hand and strengthened Iran's hand. This is going to
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: continue to not work, which is why these more insane
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: options are being floated to do something that hasn't been
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: done before. But you know, this has been studied. This
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: is Professor Pape's area of expertise. It has never worked
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: that an air campaign alone is going to cause regime change,
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: is going to allow us to you know, defeat Iran,
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: defeat the government, and put us in a stronger physician
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: the negotiating table. At this point, it's very unlikely whenever
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: we do end up back at the negotiating table, that
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: will get something that is even as good as what
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: was on the table with the memo of understanding. We
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: should be so lucky to have such a humiliating deal.
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: From the US perspective, it is only set to get
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: worse from here.
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: It is so crazy to mean that we're still even
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: trying to do this one hundred years later. There's a
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: book called The uh Command of the Air I have
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: it in front of me from I can't really pronounce.
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: It's like General Douche. I think it's duche. Maybe Douhey.
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: Some of the air power nerds will get mad at me.
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: And this was this theory that we can compel and
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: win all wars from the air. And obviously the United
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: States tried at least some of this in the initial
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: build up to the invasion of Normandy. And what did
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: we conclude is that while we were able to do
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: significant amounts of damage to the Nazi war machine, nothing
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: is ultimately going to win a more than taking the territory. Now,
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: there's a second correlate to that, which is the atomic bomb,
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: which of course brought the war with Japan to a close.
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: But even that, you know, people say conventional air power
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: was able to destroy some of this, but they still
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: would have been able to put up some of a fight.
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: So it's one hundred years or so later and we're
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: still trying to do this from the air. Why because
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: it's easy and you take minimal amounts of casualties. And
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: I'm not in any way under you know, I'm not
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: trying to underplay the seventeen probably eighteen now Americans that
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: have been killed in this war. But it's not hundreds
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: and hundreds enough to mobilize true popular resistance in the
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: way that the war and he rocked it. But what
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: we see in front of us right now is a
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: crazy situation where the intelligence community, and I've asked around,
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: from what I understand, the intel from our side is
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: actually pretty good, our intel analysts from the beginning, where
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: like this Israeli stuff is nonsense.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: It doesn't back up with what we're saying.
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: You can read the inside Maggie Haverman Jonathan Swan account.
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: The CIA director was like, I don't know about this.
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: This is not what where our people are showing Trump
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: advance and all of the guys in the situation room,
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: they have all the munition's numbers in front of them,
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: the real ones. We only have estimates they have, I
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: mean oil. Frankly, you know, for us, there's no secret
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: information on oil stockpile and all that is completely public.
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: We know exactly where we are. But these Raelis continue
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: to push their own versions, which Trump wants to believe
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: because they are both much more optimistic and they give
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: him the potential win. Let's put a nine up here
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: on the screen from the Wall Street Journal just this morning,
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: new magical analysis the magic bullet, if you will. Israel
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: believes Iran move nuclear centrifuges into Pickaxe Mountain. The US
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: is now reviewed and is really assessment, and President Trump
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: has threatened to attack the site. Israeli intelligence believes Iran
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: has moved thousands of uranium and Richmond centrifuges into tunnels
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: deep inside of a mountain last fall wait, I thought
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: it was all destroyed. I thought it was unburied, unusable, unmovable.
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: You can't even get to it. And yet now magically
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: it's all in Pickaxe Mountain. Perhaps perhaps it is true.
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: If it is true, one might even ask why the
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: Twelve Day War even happened in the first place. And
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: they say Israel's war aims have now diverged from the
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: United States. Prime Minister Benatanyahu has tried to persuade Trump
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: to resume all out attacks on Iran into further set
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: back to Tehran's weapons program and rebuilding efforts, and the
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: US has now stepped up attacks in the past ten days.
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: Trump has said publicly that he would potentially target Pickaxe Mountain.
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: He said, a possible target for nice, big fat shot. Now,
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: many of you might remember the interview Trump gave last
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: week in which Hugh Hewitt magically seems to bring up
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: Pickaxe Mountain out of nowhere. I read the news, you
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: do too, I hadn't really seen a ton about Pickaxe Mountain. So, hmm,
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: Israeli intelligence tells Trump about this magical Pickaxe Mountain. Hugh Hewitt,
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: who is one of the major neocons radio hosts here
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: in Washington happens to have a show with a prime
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: mint or sorry, an interview with Trump in which he
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: goes president. He even signs off the interview. Do you
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: remember this, mister president, go get pickaxe Mountain. One may
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: ask mister Hewitt in which why he got and where
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: he got some of that information and planted it there
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: in the President's head, not in any way taking any
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: agency away from Trump, who of course could decide that
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: this is obviously it is Reeli info op. But you
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: can see if you want to read the tea leaves
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: where things are all coming from. We also, and this
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: is the thing too, about the other Gulf nations. They
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: are taking an absolute pounding. So professor Morandi from Tehran,
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: of course we've had him on here on the show
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: many times, and he is very much in touch with
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: the Iranian leadership.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: We can put a three please. He put this out yesterday.
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: People should evacuate Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi via the UAE,
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: possibly Oman. If the Trump regime keeps pushing escalation, the
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: fate of key infrastructure across these complicit receives is not
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: in doubt.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: They will become unlivable.
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: You can now see that in all of the attacks
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: that have happened on Kuwait multiple days in a row,
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: now of desalination energy plants that were all being targeted
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: in Kuwait. You also have critical energy infrastructure on top
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: of strikes all across the region Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan in particular,
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: where many of those US troops were killed. And we do,
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: by the way, have a four. These are the images
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: that we can show all of you of the American
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: service members we now know have confirmed who have been killed.
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: One of them Private Isabella Gonzales, nineteen years old. She
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: just graduated from high school in twenty twenty five in Carrollton, Texas.
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: The other first Lieutenant First Lieutenant Tyler James Fienn of
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: Ewa Beach, Hawaii, killed in action July eighteen, twenty twenty six.
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: We also getting some preliminary reports on the third casualty
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: in that strike appears to be a father of a
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: young girl. And so what we know also if we
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: put a five up here on the screen, is that
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: inside of Iran, many civilians, including two students, were actually
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: killed in the US strikes on a bridge in province
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: in Iran on Thursday. Iran has identified two of those students,
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: two of them also younger girls, so you can see
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: the human costs now so far. I also think it
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: is worth looking at the satellite imagery if we can
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: go to the next one A six please and Crystal,
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: this is just what's so devastating. Obviously we have the
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: video we showed everybody this yesterday. This appears to be
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: the strike on the barracks of the base in Jordan
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: where these soldiers seem to have been killed either in
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: their sleep or while they were running for cover. This
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: is satellite imagery for those of you who are watching,
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: which shows directly on the left side the damage that
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: was done to those containerized housing units on the right is.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: What it looked like before.
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: So a direct strike on the barracks where these troops
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: are being housed, and many of them were killed in
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: this third strike, the details of which Chris will just
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: show the targeting data and the ability of Iran to
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: evade US defenses because this base was struck three separate
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: times in one day, and all three of the missiles
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: came through debris was able to.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: Hit the first time around.
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: The second time around there was also a hit that
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: was on the base for incoming the third one is
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: where the direct strike happened in the middle of the night,
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: in this housing barrack, and obviously, i mean current indications
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: are that's where they were whenever they were hit.
• 15:33
  Speaker 4: It just makes it so well and it's just.
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: Such a horrific thing to even think about.
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: It is truly horrific.
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, that girl host nineteen, I mean, this is
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: basically my daughter's age. At her high school graduation, they
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: asked everybody who was enlisting the military to stand up.
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: There were quite a few in her glass who were
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: going in and it's like, for what, you know, for
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: what did this woman and the other service move for?
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: What did they die for? What did these Iranian civilians
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: get killed? I mean, it's just absolutely horrific, beyond belief,
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: you know. Going back to Pickaxe Mountain, and another reason
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: why everyone should be very very nervous when we start
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: talking about this shit is it's unlikely that conventional weapons
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: would be able to even come close to destroying Pickaxe Mountain.
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: It's much deeper, much more hardened than Fourdeaux and the
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: other sites that we've attacked. So could we collapse the entrances,
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: could we do some external damn sure?
• 16:29
  Speaker 4: With conventional weapons.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: Sure.
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: So that's why I continue to be concerned, because Trump
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: is a complete maniac and is desperate for a win,
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: for pulling some sort of win out of this absolute
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: catastrophe that he himself has put us into. That he
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: could be crazy enough to consider a nuclear weapon and
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: breaking that taboo, and then, I mean, what a complete disaster.
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: I mean that then we're talking about any sort of
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: moral leadership of the UA, Are you kidding me?
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: Like the world will.
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: Run to China as they should if we you know,
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, as they We've already given them plenty of reason.
• 17:04
  Speaker 4: To do that, by the way.
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: But that's why this is, you know, this is really
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: quite terrifying, these talks and the constant efforts from not
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: just the Israelis but all of the Hawks to push
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: Trump in the direction of and this is what he wants,
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: some sort of wild escalation that you know, this time
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: it'll be different. This time it will be the play
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: that is going to strengthen our hand and provide you
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: with the glorious victory that he is so anxious to
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: be able to achieve.
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: So that's very scary.
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: The last thing that I wanted to bring up is
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: This analysis from his name is policy tents are both
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: on Twitter and also he has a substack that is
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: really worth reading. He says he has says not only
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: does the US not have the military means to defeat Iran,
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: it does not have the military means to prevent Iran
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: from imposing its exclusive authority over HERMUZ. The US should
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: have honored the mouit signed. At least we could have
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: saved a bit of face, brought her on in from
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: the cold. The next one's going to be even more humiliating.
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: It's if a diplomatic is still not found, as would
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: be the case unless the US accepts Iranian authority over hermus.
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: This ends either with a nuclear armed Iran or with
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: the US Empire disarmed, or both. Regardless of how this ends,
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: Iran will keep Hormos forever for the same reason the
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: US will control the Panama Canal. The reason all this
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: is happening is very simple. The Empire is no longer
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: viable as an imperial project. Posn's command of the global
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: commons is gone. It was based on a decisive military
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: advantage that has vanished with the arrival of the mature
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: precision strike regime. You cannot argue with a technological era.
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: You can bash your head against the wall, but all
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: the head bashing is only going to yield more pain
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: and humiliation. Very important to know when to fold, to
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: accept defeat, and to understand it so that the means
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: and ends of foreign policy can be brought back into balance.
• 18:50
  Speaker 4: And Sager, I think that's really true.
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's why, in particular in this war against Iran,
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: that's why it's hopeless that we're going to be able
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: to secure some sort of decisive victory here. It's a fantasy.
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: It's why Israel going up against Hamas, which has like nothing,
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: which has scraped together weapons from the ordinance that's dropped
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: on Gaza. That's why Israel was unable to defeat Hamas,
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: is not able to secure their military victory in the
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: way that they would want using bombs alone. It's the
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: reason why Russia is bogged down in Ukraine. Again, Russia
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: vastly larger population, vastly larger military, technological superiority, all of
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: that stuff, and they're banging their head up against the
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: wall in Ukraine and basically completely bogged down at this point.
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: This is the era that we live in now. And
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: it is a completely different game than what was played
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: in the past. And you know, Trump at al just
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: refused to reckon with the fact that this is never
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: going to succeed. There is nothing that they can do
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: that would allow it to succeed.
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: Right, And actually the Russian experience is one where is
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: the United States prepared for what Russia is going to
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: do to eventually, in my opinion, win the war, which
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: is sacrifice hundreds of thousands of people for nothing. You know,
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: there's a new cias meant, who knows if it's true
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: where they say that the average estimate of lifespan on
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: the Russian Front for a new soldier is like thirty seconds.
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: I mean, is that actually true.
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: Probably I don't know if I really buy that, but yeah,
• 20:18
  Speaker 4: but you.
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: Know, it's one of those where okay, well, if it's
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: not thirty seconds, I forget the stat from the First
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: World War. I think it's like a new first lieutenant
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: on the Western Front for the British military that.
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: He survived like two weeks.
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: Let's say something like that, right, where okay, yeah, you can,
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: you can win, but it's going to take literally the
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: sacrifice of an entire generation.
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: Go and look up the statistics.
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: For Russian men born in the year nineteen it's like
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: nineteen twenty to nineteen twenty five. I forget the exact
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: number who were either wounded or killed, but it's insane,
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: like the vast majority of people who eventually saw service
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: on the Eastern Front?
• 20:53
  Speaker 5: Is that?
• 20:53
  Speaker 6: What?
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: Is that how we want to live? That's not how
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: I want to live.
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: Well, you want to see Isabella Gonzalezes and all of
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: her classmates and all of those people either get killed
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: or maimed for a generation for what And yeah, I
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: mean I talked a lot about this our in our
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: show yesterday about drones and how it was able to undermine,
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: specifically the entire idea that the US military was built
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: upon of which those trillions of dollars have been spent.
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: You just simply have to recognize reality. But this doesn't
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: happen when you read a history book. Every time we
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: say no, no, no, if we just do a little
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: bit more and a little bit more, it's not until
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: you absolutely get bitch slapped in the face, like you
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: know multiple times when the Japanese did it to the
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: United States, or if you know there's multiple other battles.
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: I think it happened to a British I forget the
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: exact I think it might have been in Singapore something
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: like that in around December of nineteen forty one, where
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: it was the same thing where the entire navy just
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: wakes up and goes Our entire theory of the last
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: twenty five years was wrong, and you find out in
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: a two hour time span.
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: But we found out. And yet just like with them,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: all the writing was on the wall. Everybody knew.
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: Basically, everybody had a chance to know if they wanted.
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: But it's willful blindness for too much money spent, sunk
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: cost fallacy. And that's why when I say we haven't
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: bled enough, we haven't. That's just the I wish it
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: were the case. To me, we have bled plenty. But
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: for the policymakers, for the imperial like for these people,
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: for the Duba Witzes of the world, for the journal
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: Wall Street Journal, for Trump, for Fox News, for these
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: people to admit catastrophic defeat, it takes, you know, something
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: like that like Pearl Harbor or something like thirty five
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: hundred people who are killed. I truly wish it weren't
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: the case, but it usually is. Yeah, and there's just
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: too much evidence to point in the other direction.
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: Well, and with Putin and Russia, I mean, not only
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: could they, you know, continue to just feed their people
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: into meet Griner, which what they've been doing, they're also
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: considering insane things, considering, you know, bombing further into Europe,
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: considering using a nuclear weapon. These are active debates that
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: are happening withinside of inside of Russia to try to
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: again secure something that they've been unable to fully secure
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: on the battlefield. You know, I think you're right over time,
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: it's enough time. You already have Ukrainian who are you know,
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: would like to see a resolution to the war, and
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: a war weary and have had an entire generation that
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: has been destroyed. But you know, this has not been
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: the easy pickings that Putin thought it was going to be.
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: And then with Iran, you know, Iran is we underestimated them.
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: They actually are a better industrial power than we are.
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: They've got their shit much more together in terms of manufacturing,
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: you know, the drones that they've developed and the things
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: that they need in order to succeed. They understand their
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: strengths in terms of their geography and what they need
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: to do, what our weaknesses are, et cetera. They believe
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: that they can withstand a lot more pain than we can.
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: I think that's absolutely the case. And so you know,
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: here we are with Trump considering, hey, do we pursue
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: this ten day deal, which Iran probably even if Trump
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: was like, let's do it, Iran's probably like, no, I'm
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: not doing that, because you're just using that to calm
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: the oil markets and then go right back to war
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: or is there going to be some sort of a catastrophic,
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: disastrous escalation.
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: So that's also I have the stat sixty eight percent
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: of Soviet males born innineteen twenty three were dead by
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: the beginning of nineteen forty six.
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: Jesus, basically seven.
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: Out of ten, and the rest were probably horrifically scarred
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: by their PTSD year wounds.
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: So I don't want to live that way. All right,
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: Let's get to BB.
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: So you may recall that mayors are on mom Donnie,
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: when he was on the campaign trail, indicated that he
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: would have Netnaw who arrested for his war crimes or
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: overcall he the wanted criminal by the ICC, if he
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: were to come to New York. He was asked about
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: that in a recent New York Times interview, and he said, yeah,
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: we're still looking into that.
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: Let's take a listen.
• 24:32
  Speaker 7: I believe that Prime Mister Nettane, who belongs in the Hague,
• 24:36
  Speaker 7: he's a war criminal who has been charged by the
• 24:39
  Speaker 7: International Criminal Court. And what you will find is that
• 24:44
  Speaker 7: is an opinion that is held by many purely because
• 24:47
  Speaker 7: of what his actions have wrought over these last many years.
• 24:50
  Speaker 7: I've also said that I will follow the laws that
• 24:53
  Speaker 7: we have here in New York City because I believe
• 24:56
  Speaker 7: that there's an importance in following the law as a
• 24:59
  Speaker 7: leader who presides over our city. And that's something that
• 25:02
  Speaker 7: I plan to do.
• 25:03
  Speaker 4: Meaning I'm sorry, I don't understand what that means, meaning.
• 25:05
  Speaker 7: That whatever the law allows me to do in New
• 25:07
  Speaker 7: York City, that's what we will do. But we won't
• 25:09
  Speaker 7: be writing our own laws.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: To that end.
• 25:10
  Speaker 6: What does the law allow you to do.
• 25:13
  Speaker 7: That's an active conversation with our legal department in seeing
• 25:17
  Speaker 7: what the prospects are we have here in our municipality. However,
• 25:21
  Speaker 7: what we've seen at the national level is a desire
• 25:22
  Speaker 7: sometimes to write your own laws, to go outside of
• 25:25
  Speaker 7: the bounds of legality.
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: That's not something we have an interest in.
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: So I'm very much read those comments as a way
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: to sort of walk back from the promise to arrest Natanya,
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: basically saying like, yeah, I'd love to do it, but
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: we got to be constrained by laws and we're looking
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: into it. And the reality is, I mean, we're not
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: even a signatory to the ICC. It's hard to imagine
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: what legitimate power he could use, even though I would
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: love for him to figure out one. Nevertheless, Sagar Trump
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: made sure to come to Netna, who's rescue and defense
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: here and can put Element one up on the screen
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: Benjamin Etna, who will not be arrested in any way,
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: shape or form.
• 26:00
  Speaker 4: While in the United States of America.
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: He's fighting against the Islamic Republic of Iran, which recently
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: killed fifty two thousand innocent protesters. I swear that number
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: goes up every time we see it, and has spent
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: the last forty seven years killing American soldiers and others.
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: The only ones that should be arrested are the people
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: that led Iran into this unprecedented spiral of death and destruction,
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: something that should have been dealt with years ago by
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: previous precedents. So there you go. Trump making sure that
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: met Nyahuu will be safe and sound when he comes
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: here in September. I think for the UN General Assembly
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: is the reason that he's planning to.
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: Be in town.
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: Zoran was asked again about the possibility of this arrest,
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: and they tried to play like, well, why do you
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: care so what about the treatment of Iran in New
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: York City? Is there some sort of a double standard
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: at work here? This is B three.
• 26:47
  Speaker 4: Let's go ahead and listen to that.
• 26:48
  Speaker 5: Our administration did not reach out to the Prime Minister
• 26:51
  Speaker 5: of Iran. Our administration received a request from the Iranian consulate,
• 26:57
  Speaker 5: and as soon as I heard of that, I made
• 26:58
  Speaker 5: it clear that we are noting and we will not
• 27:00
  Speaker 5: meet with the Israeli consulate here in New York City.
• 27:03
  Speaker 5: And when it comes to Benjamin Netanyaho, we're speaking about
• 27:07
  Speaker 5: someone who's the subject of an International Criminal Court arrest warrant,
• 27:11
  Speaker 5: and he's the subject of this arrest warrant for alleged
• 27:13
  Speaker 5: crimes against humanity, for war crimes, and he's the architect
• 27:18
  Speaker 5: of the genocidegainst Palestinians and Gaza. As Israel's Prime minister,
• 27:22
  Speaker 5: these are not facts of my personal assessment. They are
• 27:25
  Speaker 5: facts of public record, and I believe that when someone
• 27:30
  Speaker 5: is charged with an international criminal court warrant, it's something
• 27:32
  Speaker 5: that should be taken seriously, whether it's Benjamin Nettniaho or
• 27:35
  Speaker 5: it's Vladimir Putin or whomever else. What I've also made
• 27:38
  Speaker 5: clear is that my administration will follow all applicable local laws.
• 27:43
  Speaker 5: That is our commitment. That is something that we will
• 27:45
  Speaker 5: follow through on when it comes to an adherence to
• 27:48
  Speaker 5: local law. And that's all I have to add on that.
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: Thank you looking, And now we're going to go to
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: Heather for law.
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: Are you looking at arresting anybody else on that list
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: of people who've committed international war crimes?
• 28:01
  Speaker 5: My point is that if someone is charged with a
• 28:03
  Speaker 5: warrant by the international Criminal court for these kinds of crimes,
• 28:07
  Speaker 5: that's something I believe that should be honored. And I've
• 28:09
  Speaker 5: also said that we will follow our local laws.
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: So there you go.
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: Unlikely that Netanyaho is going to be arrested on anytime soon, sadly,
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: although I mean possibly if he loses this election, maybe
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: in Israel, but over corruption, not of war crimes.
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: So overcome Atari corruption, which is the best part of it.
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: For all the accusations.
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: Yes, absolutely, but in any case he's probably safe when
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: he comes to New York City. Sadly, it is wild though,
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: just to reflects Sager that this is the mayor of
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: New York, she's like under pressure to say that he
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: would arrest net in Yahoo just a couple years ago,
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: the idea that you would have an avowed anti Zionist
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: who wants to arrest net Yahoo, who support is a
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: supporter of the BDS movement to be the mayor of
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: New York City. Of course, the largest concentration of Jewish
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: Americans in the entire country, one of the largest concentrations
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: of use on the planet period. It just shows you
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: how radically things have shifted. And it's not, you know,
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: in spite of opposition from Jewish New Yorkers. It's in
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: part because of support from Jewish New Yorkers who were
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: also disgusted with the war crimes of NETANYAHUU and the
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: genocide that their tax dollars have funded. Along with of
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: course Urn's core campaign pitch, which was very appealing to me.
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: I do think what's interesting, first of all, are totally
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: so like I went to GW which is like the
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: birthplace of Hillary Clinton liberalism, and I you know, when
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: I was in college, the median position was Hillary is great,
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: but BDS is support for terrorism, Like that was the
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: that was like the democratic you know, and most of
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: the people I went to school with, if they're involved
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: in politics, they probably all work and you know, the
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: centrist industrial complex. So but for them, I think a
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: lot of them shifted also on Israel. It is inconceivable
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: for something like that to happen. I also think it
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: is so obvious that if you watch that first comment,
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: he's backing himself out of what his most ardent supporters wanted,
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: which is like I won't name the person who are
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: arguing with this about where.
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: He's like, why does Zoron not arrest Ben.
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: Gavier whenever Ben Gavier Nao came to the Israel Day parade.
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: I'm like, dude, he's the NYPD, or is the New
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: York City commissioner or a mayor, Mike, he doesn't have
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: any statutory authority to arrest a foreign dignitary And don't
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: use that word in what it is based the technicality, Yeah,
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: what it means he has zero authority to arrest a
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: foreign dignitary on US soil.
• 30:35
  Speaker 7: Like.
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: The fact is this US State Department and the United
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: States government at the federal level has total authority whenever
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: it comes to that, So a local mayor has zero
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: capability whatsoever to do that, and himself would be in violation.
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: Of like multiple US laws.
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: He knows that, which is why he keeps saying, we're
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: going to focus all our local laws, even at a
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: higher level. As you said, we're not statutory through the ICC.
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: We don't even recognize authority the current administration currently and
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: actually long in the past, even Bill Clinton and all
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: of them, whenever they were under serious pressure to become signatories,
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: they didn't want to do it because explicitly, not just
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: for this reason, but because it would, you know, undermine
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: the empire status.
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: Of the US. So there is no way that this
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: would ever happen.
• 31:19
  Speaker 4: I know it'd be popular if it didn't.
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: I see, I don't know about that.
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: But oh yeah, if they found a way to arrest Danya,
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: it would be popular.
• 31:28
  Speaker 4: It would be very popular.
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: You know, he did live here.
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: Friends of mine and the government tell me basically everyone's
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: guilty of wire fraud in some way or the other.
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: So I'm sure you'd find something.
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: But you know, yeah, it was from Pennsylvania, right, I
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: think he's lived in Pennsylvania.
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe not born there, but he lived around there.
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: I mean, I just know that he stayed in Jared
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: Kushner's bedroom when a street was in town.
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: And he would brack be like, Jared, I used to
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: sleep in your childhood bedroom. And I think I attended
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: a speech where he said that publicly. I'm looking around
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: in the press corps and I'm like everyone.
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: Else hear this.
• 32:01
  Speaker 4: I'm like's like normal weird?
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: Is this nobody else thinks this is super weird? Or
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: whenever you would you come to America and as frequent
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: visits and visit. Oh, I don't know Jonathan Pollard, the
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: convicted US or convicted spy in prison, but that's what
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: he's all about.
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: If we were to.
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: Zoom out a little bit about Bebe and Trump, I mean,
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: it's so hard to try and read the tea leaves.
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: Can we put this before up here on the screen.
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: This is from Barackravid inside Bbe's mystery Trump meeting, where
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: Bebe kept saying all day, I'm gonna meet with Trump.
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna meet with Trump.
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna meet with Trump via these anonymous accounts in
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: the Israeli press. No meeting has been scheduled Natagna, who
• 32:38
  Speaker 3: obviously has visited the Oval Office six times since Trump
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: has entered office, more than any world leader in under
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: the Trump administration. All of those meetings were scheduled quote
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: within an hour or days. This time, he's been trying
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: to get an appointment for more than two weeks. From
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: what we can see, A lot of this has to
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: do with Lindsey Graham's funeral. Now the funeral actually has
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: been delayed to the July twenty eighth. Now will be
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: Bbe is scheduled to attend the funeral, which okay, I
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: mean tells you a little bit about who's memorializing Senator Graham.
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: But what is fascinating to me is Trump doesn't seem
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: to want to meet him, or at least publicly as
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: of yet. But obviously they're on the phone and they
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: talk all the time. I just can't figure out who
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: exactly and what the optics behind this are, like, do
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: they recognize as toxic They don't want to send an
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: explicit message with Ron at the same time we're bombing
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: the hell out of them. It looks like a war
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: could resume literally at any moment, and why. And this
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: morning there's a report out of the Hebrew language press
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: where the Israelis are blaming the Vance team, saying Vance's
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: team is preventing Bbe from meeting with Donald Trump. I
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: don't think that that's true. I don't think if Trump
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: wanted to meet with me, would.
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: The questions of juice yeahrly.
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I don't think anybody has I kind
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: of juice to stop Trump from meeting with Bib. But
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: the question is why, Like, ultimately, why did he decide
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: Trump not to meet with Boebe? The White House came
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: out multiple times and said it's not happening as of
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: right now. So I have no idea, know, you got
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: to read tea leaves and all of that. But at
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: the same time, he comes out with some tweet being like, oh,
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: he's not going to get arrested.
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: Actually it's the Iranians who.
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: Should be are the ones who are arrested. It's like
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: he can't make up his mind about how to deal
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: with this man.
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, who knows what's going on in his head.
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: I really don't have a take on it either. It
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: could just be that like person on a personal level,
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: he finds bbe kind of annoying, you know, because they
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: add that, you know, he was irritated with him because
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: he congratulated Joe Biden on his victory, and he probably
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: still holds that grudge and he probably you know, maybe
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: BB is to whatever. He may just find him sort
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: of personally irritating, but it doesn't really change the logic
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: of the direction that he's pushing and in terms of
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: the war with Iran.
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: So I don't know.
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: It's also interesting that Israel's not participating in this current
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: bombing campaign. They had a big security meeting, cabinet meeting
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: yesterday and said basically like, Okay, we're just going to
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: hold our position for now. We're not going to join
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: the US in this bombing campaign. I don't know if
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: they were invited to join or not, but it seems
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: that they're waiting for a bigger escalation and that they
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: would want to participate in.
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah, the Finance Smotrich gave an interview yesterday in Israel,
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: and he says the State of Israel has no interest
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: in joining the contained confrontation between Iran and the United States.
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: The current situation is the best one for us.
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: And you know, I think he might be right in
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: the sense where Israel, as we all know, was getting
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: the shit pounded out of it whenever the war was happening.
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: For forty days, they were genuinely rationing interceptors, so it
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: was a big problem for them, and they were not
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: accomplishing their regime change goals. When he says the current
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: situation is the best one possible for us, in some
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: ways he's not wrong because Israel's economy is basically fake
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: and a protectorate of the United States, so it's not
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: their economy which is in huge trouble.
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: It's ours.
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: So he's like, yeah, we didn't get our regime change,
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: and the Battle of Horne moves nothing to do with us.
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: That's Europe, the United States, and Asia's no regime change
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: on the horizon, So let them fight it out and
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: we'll continue to kill you know, random Palestinians in the
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: West Bank every other day just because we can.
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: Well, plus there missile inner suffances. We're down to like
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: single digits, double digits.
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: It was scraping the.
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: Bottom of the barrel there, So yeah, for them to
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: just say, we'll sit back and watch as plus, they
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: don't care if Ron you know, destroys Kuwait and makes
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: the UAE unlivable or whatever, that.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: They don't care at all. Yeah, you know.
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: And that's the funny part is if I Ron really
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: hated Israel now would be or not hate it, but
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: like if they really wanted to destroy you Israel, wipe
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: it off the face of the earth.
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: Now's the time, right, you're at war. We got nothing.
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's like America's firing it you no matter what,
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: you could plow them off, but we could wipe them
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: off the face of the earth if you wanted to,
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: like you know, if you if you wanted to like
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: a full on military, if you've focused all your concentration,
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: or maybe they're actually a rational nation which just wants
• 36:50
  Speaker 3: to survive out of this and make a lot of
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: money for itself and its people and then keep its
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: regime in exactly the way that they decide. Just the thought.
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: All right, let's get to AI. Turning down to AI.
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: Massive development that happened over the weekend. Let's gohead and
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: put this up here on the screen from Axios, which
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: a general summary of the situation. Quote China just erase
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: America's AI lead. This is the number one non Iran
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: related story that we wanted to make sure that we
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: covered in extensive detail. So what happened is is that
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: over the weekend, Kimmy K three, which is a new
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: model by Beijing's based Moonshot AI, has now quote threatened
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: the foundations of America's AI boom. On Thursday, it dazzled developers,
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: jolted Silicon Valley, and reset the AI race. Overnight, the
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: AI Valuator arena actually put it in the number one
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: spot for the first time ever. Let's put C two
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: up there on the screen just to show everybody. Since
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: this time, by the way, they have reevaluated and they've
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: dropped it, but at that time they said big news.
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: Kimmy K three is now the number one in front
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: end Code Arena with one thousand, six hundred and seventy
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: nine points, surpassing clause Fable five, a seventeen place jump
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: from the KIMMYK two model. In the front end, Kimmy
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: K three ranked number one in six of seven domains
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: brand and marketing, reference based design, data and analytics, consumer
• 38:14
  Speaker 3: product simulations and content creation tools, landing number two only
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: in gaming, behind Fable five. The full model weights will
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: be released by July twenty seven. This has basically enabled
• 38:26
  Speaker 3: a gold rush for Kimmi, which has found itself deluged
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: by new customers and other users. So much so, let's
• 38:34
  Speaker 3: put C three up here on the screen that they
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: have now released this statement. Kimmy K three has received
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: far more love than we expected. Our GPUs are feeling it.
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: Over the past forty eight hours, demand has pushed close
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: to the limits of our current capacity. To protect the
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: experience of existing subscribers, we are temporarily pausing new subscriptions
• 38:53
  Speaker 3: and prioritizing compute for current members. Existing subscribed users are
• 38:57
  Speaker 3: not affected. We're adding capacity is fast as you can
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: and will reopen a new subscription spot in batches. Going forward,
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: we will also split membership into two more focus plans,
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: membership for Kimny Web app and work and then Kenny
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: Code for coding workflows. This will help us match compute
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: more precisely and keep the experience stable.
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: Thank you for your patience and understanding.
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: A lot of people reacted to this in AWE because
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: all of the other American companies they take your money.
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: One person responded, wait, so you're refusing to take money
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: to give people a better user experience. You're not taking
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: your best model out of the plans, and you're not
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: bullshitting your users into thinking.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: So very strange.
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: American customers are so used they'll take your money, then
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: they take the top model away, and then there's some
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: fuckery or something that's behind the scenes, and then they
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: rate limit you anyway, So a little bit of a
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: better Chinese customer experience, but.
• 39:45
  Speaker 4: This has caused like can I just stay on that note.
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: By the way, the very next time I logged into Claude,
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: got a message from aanthropic that's like, hey, oh, I know,
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: here's one hundred dollars credit to use stable.
• 39:57
  Speaker 3: Five our company our company account.
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: They keeps bombarding me by feeble five credit. I'm like,
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: we're fucking good man. You know we're not doing any
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: coding stuff over here.
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, but yeah, that's a little bit different. And by
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: the way, of course, we have a company account here
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: for a Claude and yet somehow they're still shaking.
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: Me down for money.
• 40:15
  Speaker 3: So a little interesting in terms of the difference in
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: what's going on. But you know, geopolitically, it's an earthquake moment,
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: and that's really what has been set off this new
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: discussion in the White House where let's put C five
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: up here on the screen. In the last three days,
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: there has now been an internal civil war over whether
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: they should just ban these cutting edge Chinese models that
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: which would lock in the dominance of Open Ai and
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: Anthropic in the US market. Basically, it's a divide between
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: the AI companies themselves, Open Ai and Anthropic, which are
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: saying that these open source and or Chinese subsidized AI companies,
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: which are able to charge dramatically less than what the
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: US companies are, would destroy their businesses and make it
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: completely unable for them to go IPO to remain dominant.
• 41:04
  Speaker 3: On the other side are the pro competition voices who say, actually,
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: the Chinese AI model is a kick in the ass,
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: exactly what the American companies need, and if anything, it
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: shows that the government is that the government has put
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: too much regulation on the AI companies. This voice, I
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: would say, is more like the David sachsfront, which is
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: enabled by a particular tweet I pulled it actually for
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: our segment. I have a report full of security issues
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: of software I'm working on. Codex won't fix them because
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: of cyberguardrails. Fable won't fix them because of CyberGuard rails.
• 41:37
  Speaker 3: Kimmy K three fixed all of them, no restriction, It
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: just gets the job done. This will end badly for
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: open AI and Anthropic. The criticism there, elevated by Sachs
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: is that cyberguardrails and so called security movement within the
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: AI companies is actually holding back, you know, the competition.
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: So you can see how all of this.
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: Is being used by open AI on Anthropic, which are like, hey,
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: you know, they're coming after us, They're stealing our technology
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: and they're undercutting us from one side. Some of the
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: pro AI voices with competition open source voices are like, no,
• 42:09
  Speaker 3: this is good and if anything, we just need to
• 42:11
  Speaker 3: let it all rip. Here in the US and the
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: way the China is, there's a medium ground kind of
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: analyst position which I kind of find myself in where
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: you're like.
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: Wow, this is crazy. Yeah, you're like well, you're like okay,
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: so well it destroys the economics of it. I think,
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: did you pull the Chamath thing?
• 42:29
  Speaker 4: Yeah?
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: Did? Why don't you summarize it?
• 42:31
  Speaker 5: Yeah?
• 42:32
  Speaker 4: Good, go ahead and put this up on the screen.
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: Guys. Is the last element in the block. So this
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: is Chamat, who obviously very close with David Zachs. He
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: says the leading AI has already forked into two options,
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: a a closed source American that costs twenty six to
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: fifty six per one million tokens, or an open weight
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: Chinese that cost fifty cents to one dollar per one
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: million tokens. If you force American companies to spend fifty
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: to one hundred times more than their competitors abroad, here's
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: what will happen on American companies spending fifty two one
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: hundred times will at some point become financially impaired. The
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: stock market will creater. This is the equivalent of the
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: US government saying we can only buy oil at eight
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: hundred dollars a barrel, even when the free market sells
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: the same oil for eighty dollars a barrel.
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: Two.
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: In the short term, the revenues of the closed American
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: labs may remain high, But when their revenue will also
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: creater because their customers in the US will be impaired
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: and their customers abroad will have already flipped to cheaper solutions,
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: this would be a terribly self defeating form of intervention
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: if it were to happen. There is so much to say.
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's right on the economics, right. The Chinese
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: models are vastly, vastly cheaper, and now they are affected.
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: You know, the thing that the American models had in
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: the past is they were a little bit better. They
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: were like six months ahead of the Chinese models. They're
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: not anymore. And it's not just Kimmy K three. There's
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: a few other models that have already been released in
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: the wake of Kimmy K three that are basically at
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: the same level. A lot of competition within China, within
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: China between these different models and labs that are operating
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: in that space as well, so sort of, I don't know, ironically, hilariously, whatever,
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: however you want to describe it. Part of the reason
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: why their models are so much cheaper and so much
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: more efficient is because we ban them from having the
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: top of the line chips, so they were unable to
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: pursue the same like, let's just throw as much compute
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: at it as possible as our closed labs. So they
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: decided to go in this open model direction and try
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: to push the efficiency as much as possible.
• 44:25
  Speaker 4: And now it's paying off for them.
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: So in some ways, the policy that we thought would
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: help secure our company's AI lead is exactly what is
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: undercutting them at this point. So that's one aspect of this.
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: You know, from a business perspective, Anthropic and Open AI
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: these companies are not profitable. They have massive amounts of debt,
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: and they're able to float it because investors look at
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: the possibility of getting rid of the labor force and
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: all of these productivity gains and think that it's worth
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: the investment, and think that large companies in particular will
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: pay a lot of money to Anthropic and Open AI
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: once they get to the point where that labor saving
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: technology is truly truly comes of age and can be
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: fully implemented. That is what the whole bet is based upon.
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: Kimmi K three open source model and other similar positioned competitors.
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: That just kills the economics. I mean just there's no
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: doubt about it. It kills the economics. Why are you
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: going to think that an American company is going to
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: choose Anthropic when they could choose something that's just as good,
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: that's way way cheaper. Of course, they're going to do that.
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: Microsoft already has announced they're evaluating Kimmy K three to
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: use with their copilot and to host on their platform.
• 45:38
  Speaker 4: Here's the other thing.
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: They own a stake in open ai too.
• 45:41
  Speaker 4: That's right, That's exactly right.
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: And here's the other thing too, is okay, open model
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: versus closed model?
• 45:48
  Speaker 4: What does that mean?
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: Open source model means that anyone can get access to
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: the model weights, which is the whole secret sauce behind
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: this thing. They can host it themselves, and you actually can't. Really,
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: it would be very difficult for the government even to
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: be able to block all American companies from using these models. Now,
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: what they could do is say, basically, you're not going
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: to contract with the US government, You're not going to
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: contract with Pentagon if you're using any of these models.
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: And that would work for all the large players, but
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: a lot of small players would still use the Chinese
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: models because they're not doing business with the US federal government.
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: So there's that if they do decide to ban the
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: Chinese models or make it functionally impossible for large US
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: corporations to use the Chinese models, there is no way
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: to look at that other than a bailout for Anthropic
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: and open Ai. However, because so much of our economy
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: is bet on the AI space.
• 46:42
  Speaker 4: It could be the case that if.
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: You don't prop up these now sort of like behind
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: the eight ball overly expensive models, that the whole ecosystem
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: could come crashing down. Now, what Chamath and others say
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: is that's fogus. Just because these frontier models turn out
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: to not be a good business and not profitable, that
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: doesn't change the demand for data centers and all the
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: other ecosystem that goes into this, so it won't be
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: this catastrophic thing for the economy. Anthropic and open AI
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: aren't even public yet, so they're not the things that
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: are propping up the stock market.
• 47:16
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: Maybe that's right, but it's hard for me to imagine
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: that that is the case. Sorry this is long winded,
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: but the you know, the TLDR is that I think,
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: whether it happens now or in the future, we are
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: very likely to move into a situation where the AI
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: models are sort of like the Internet. It's not the
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: place where people are making gobs and gobs of money.
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: It's all in the layers, the applications, what you do
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: with the Internet, there is a lot of you know,
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: it's going to be profoundly transformational.
• 47:43
  Speaker 4: I think that is true.
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: But the big you know, the business models are going
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: to be what do you do with this?
• 47:50
  Speaker 4: And the models themselves.
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: Are like a utility or like the pipes, or like
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: the internet, a you know, sort of common good thing
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: that everyone has access to more or less, and is
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: not the place where you're making these astronomical, world changing returns.
• 48:05
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 48:05
  Speaker 3: I mean, we're running a bit short on times because
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: we want to get to anti Jacobs and there's so
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: much to say. I do think ultimately, what this demonstrates
• 48:13
  Speaker 3: is the real problem for the overall US economy, the
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: US economy, and this reminds me a lot of the
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: chips in general. Chip design is an industry which the
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: America dominates.
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: We designed the.
• 48:25
  Speaker 3: Best chips, but we never made the actual chips themselves.
• 48:28
  Speaker 3: We allowed all that to be outsourced. So, from what
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: I can understand, the deliberate frontier model business model is
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: they spend oodles of money, trillions of dollars literally in
• 48:39
  Speaker 3: the development of these, but they haven't figured out the
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: actual way to price it so that they can make
• 48:45
  Speaker 3: up for what's ultimately a money losing product. The Chinese
• 48:49
  Speaker 3: basically are waiting for frontier model development using the open
• 48:52
  Speaker 3: weight strategy. They also have a force constraint because of
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: AI chip bands export bands. They had to train themselves
• 48:59
  Speaker 3: to be more efficient, which America never trained itself to
• 49:01
  Speaker 3: do so.
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: And then on top of that, there's.
• 49:03
  Speaker 3: A deliberate pricing strategy of the Chinese government where they subsidized, incentivize,
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: and create and ecosystems such that they don't have to
• 49:11
  Speaker 3: charge exactly at market price and they can have competition
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: the ultimate and the sole goal.
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: Very much.
• 49:17
  Speaker 3: How they did EV's Like to say China just blessed
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: the BYD and said go forth and create, It's not true.
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: China's EV sector was propped up at a basic level
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: from the Chinese.
• 49:29
  Speaker 4: Government seedd an entire ecosystem.
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: And then from there they were like, you guys, fight
• 49:33
  Speaker 3: it out. I mean, one day some guy who can
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: speak both languages will write a great book about that competition,
• 49:40
  Speaker 3: because that is one of the most interesting stories of
• 49:42
  Speaker 3: the last two decades.
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: Like that business the genuine war.
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: Like if you think our business price strategies and all
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: that are interesting, it all just played out there one
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: of the most capitalist wars in history. But it was
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: controlled shaped and laid the groundwork for by the government.
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: That's basically what they're doing here with That's basically what
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: they're doing in China with AI and Jijiping just gave
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: a speech about AI.
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: Why should all be.
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: Open source and more beneficial to the world Open AIS
• 50:10
  Speaker 3: chief policy officer put out a long essay Yesterday's a
• 50:13
  Speaker 3: former Trump administration official.
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: This guy's out here being like, what are we going
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: to do?
• 50:18
  Speaker 3: Like, how can we how are we supposed to survive
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: in this type of system?
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: What are what you know?
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: How can we be expected to compete in the future?
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: And these are I mean there's trillions in both cases.
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: They both expect to be value. They're currently valued in
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: terms of the private market around the trillion dollars each.
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: So that's two trillion in overall value.
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: And if that gets i mean even called by half,
• 50:39
  Speaker 3: I mean, that's a catastrophe, right for the overall economy,
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: not for maybe for US, but it's like for them.
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: For the data center build out, I mean, the capital
• 50:48
  Speaker 3: crunch that would follow would be dot Com esque and
• 50:50
  Speaker 3: the blowout from our overall, not to even mention.
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: That's the case too. But then I look at the
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: stock market and it's like, no, that's fine.
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: It's up today. Yeah, okay, Actually I don't.
• 51:00
  Speaker 4: Know what do I know?
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: I mean I've been thinking about some parallels with the
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: American auto industry, which I think is really in trouble.
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: There's a big piece in the Wall Street Journal about
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: how the fact that you had a Biden policy that
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: was pushing EV's, there was some significant research and development,
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: there were some improvements, new models coming out.
• 51:18
  Speaker 4: Then Trump comes.
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: In cuts all the subsidies, and you know, now they're
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: shelving all the and ends the buildout of a charging network,
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: which is one of the big barriers in a vast
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: country such as ours, and so now they're pairing back,
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: they're not investing in new research. So meanwhile, b WHYD
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: and other Chinese car companies too are just lapping us
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: in terms of technology. I mean, they're vastly ahead of
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: even Tesla. They are wildly cheaper than certainly than Tesla
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: or any of the other evs on the American market.
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: And so by protecting the American auto industry from that
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: Chinese EV competition, you know, you're allowing them to persist longer.
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: But it really is a pretty dim trajectory for them,
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: because the rest of the world is going ev I mean,
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: this is this is happening right and at a really
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: quite rapid clip. Once you have the charging infrastructure in place,
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: it is a superior technology, There's just no doubt about it.
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: That is where the future lies, and our car companies
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: are being left behind. So if you have a similar
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: situation where the American models are basically protected, yeah, that
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: will allow them to persist. It will function effectively as
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: a bailout for them. Corporate large corporations based here in
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: the US will use their models, etc. But you're sort
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: of setting yourself up for a broader failure in the
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: world as these Chinese models continue to progress and are
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: adopted by the entire rest of the world and by
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: small companies by the way, here in the US, which
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: will just you know, sort of flo out the US
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: regulation or go abroad so that they can use the
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: much cheaper Chinese models. So, I don't know, to conundrum
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: and with major major consequences for the economy for these
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: frontier labs, and you know, for the way that we're
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: all going to interact with this stuff going forward.
• 53:10
  Speaker 3: Very true, all right, we got Annie Jacobson's standing Biolet's
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: get to her. Very excited now to be joined by
• 53:17
  Speaker 3: Annie Jacobson, one of my favorite authors and the author
• 53:20
  Speaker 3: of this new book, Biological War comes on the heels
• 53:24
  Speaker 3: of Nuclear war A scenario. Here we have Biological War
• 53:27
  Speaker 3: a scenario. She is also the author of multiple New
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: York Times best selling books, one of my personal favorites,
• 53:32
  Speaker 3: Operation Paperclip. Very excited now to be joined by her,
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: truly one of my favorite contemporary authors of all time.
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: Annie, thank you so much for joining.
• 53:40
  Speaker 6: Us, well, thank you for having me, thank you for
• 53:42
  Speaker 6: that intro, of.
• 53:43
  Speaker 3: Course, and so you have now come out with this
• 53:45
  Speaker 3: new book, Biological War. It is a warning of what
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: you say could be even more of a terrifying apocalypse
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: for mankind and for the United States. You divulge not
• 53:55
  Speaker 3: only some of the reporting, but where you've uncovered a
• 53:59
  Speaker 3: lot of the ways the United States is set up
• 54:01
  Speaker 3: expec or to deal with the potential biological war, but
• 54:03
  Speaker 3: also detail how exactly such a thing would happen. What
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: inspired you to write this book after the Nuclear War book?
• 54:11
  Speaker 6: It was many of my sources who also work in
• 54:14
  Speaker 6: counter proliferation. It's a fancy word for keeping weapons of
• 54:18
  Speaker 6: mass destruction out of bad guys hands, and many of
• 54:23
  Speaker 6: them said, Annie, after you do nuclear you have to
• 54:25
  Speaker 6: look at bio. I did not realize what an extraordinary
• 54:29
  Speaker 6: threat it was until I really drilled down on the scenario.
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: And so Annie talk to us about why it's such
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: a threat and what the vulnerabilities really are that people
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: should be concerned about.
• 54:43
  Speaker 6: One of the most stunning facts I learned was in
• 54:45
  Speaker 6: a defense department doctrine sort of a threat spectrum, and
• 54:50
  Speaker 6: it defines nuclear weapons as the most destructive, and it
• 54:55
  Speaker 6: defines biological weapons as the greatest overall threat. And that
• 55:00
  Speaker 6: has to do with this incredibly low barrier for entry.
• 55:05
  Speaker 6: Unlike nuclear weapons, which are controlled. You know, first of all,
• 55:08
  Speaker 6: they're very hard to access because you have to have
• 55:10
  Speaker 6: fissile material, you have to have weapons systems for delivery,
• 55:15
  Speaker 6: and they're controlled by a nation state's nuclear command. And
• 55:19
  Speaker 6: controlled biological weapons, I learned, particularly now with AI systems
• 55:25
  Speaker 6: in play, can be made in a basement by sort
• 55:29
  Speaker 6: of a high school student, if you will, with a
• 55:31
  Speaker 6: very low knowledge of biology. That is terrifying.
• 55:36
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: We actually, just before you came in, we're talking about
• 55:39
  Speaker 3: these open source models and potential guardrails and more. I
• 55:42
  Speaker 3: know that you've highlighted the AI risk, but you've also
• 55:45
  Speaker 3: talked about many of these labs. We have a map
• 55:47
  Speaker 3: that we can put up here on the screen, which
• 55:50
  Speaker 3: were provided to us by your team. These BSL four
• 55:53
  Speaker 3: labs that are all around the world. Many of us
• 55:56
  Speaker 3: learn about some of these types of lads with COVID
• 55:59
  Speaker 3: and the of the COVID virus, but tell us about
• 56:02
  Speaker 3: the danger that has posed for a biological war scenario,
• 56:05
  Speaker 3: potentially even a lab leak of a biological apocalypse.
• 56:10
  Speaker 6: Well, first of all, thanks for showing that map, and
• 56:12
  Speaker 6: let's give credit to the academics and scientists who keep
• 56:16
  Speaker 6: track of those labs because they are there is no
• 56:19
  Speaker 6: government organization monitoring this. There are three thousand, five hundred
• 56:24
  Speaker 6: BSL three labs around the world in places of you know,
• 56:29
  Speaker 6: where wars are going on. You can work on plague
• 56:32
  Speaker 6: and anthrax, hantavirus, and a BSL three lab. Ninety percent
• 56:36
  Speaker 6: of those labs do not have safety standards. An astonishing fact.
• 56:42
  Speaker 6: BSL four labs that's like the CDC's lab in Atlanta,
• 56:47
  Speaker 6: the Defense Department's lab at Fort Dietrich. These are the
• 56:51
  Speaker 6: highest level of biosafety. There are now seventeen in the
• 56:56
  Speaker 6: United States and one hundred and ten around the world.
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: Help people understand because I think everybody knows that, or
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: most people know biological weapons are technically illegal. So how
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: is this sort of bioengineering allowed?
• 57:11
  Speaker 4: What enables this sort.
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: Of research which we all learned, you know, with devastating consequences,
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: can be extremely dangerous to humanity.
• 57:20
  Speaker 6: Well, there's lots of different euphemisms for genetic engineering in
• 57:24
  Speaker 6: this world. There's dual use research of concern. Everyone knows
• 57:28
  Speaker 6: about dual use. You can use a kitchen knife to
• 57:31
  Speaker 6: make your dinner or to kill someone. So then there's
• 57:35
  Speaker 6: this idea of gain of function, which is exactly like
• 57:39
  Speaker 6: it sounds. You modify, genetically modify a pathogen to give
• 57:44
  Speaker 6: it more function, be it virulence, be it transmissibility, to
• 57:49
  Speaker 6: defeat a countermeasure. This is often done in the name
• 57:52
  Speaker 6: of science, in the name of medical countermeasures, looking for vaccines,
• 57:57
  Speaker 6: looking for antibiotics to defer feet a biological weapon in
• 58:02
  Speaker 6: the event of an attack or incident. But you know,
• 58:06
  Speaker 6: interviewing presidential advisors as I did, there's another side of
• 58:11
  Speaker 6: the equation. People like Andy Weber, who is Obama's top
• 58:16
  Speaker 6: biological weapons advisor will tell you gain of function is
• 58:20
  Speaker 6: a euphemism for biological weapons engineering, and he is not alone, right.
• 58:27
  Speaker 3: And of course we learned quite a bit about that
• 58:29
  Speaker 3: term after the leak of COVID from the Wuhan lab.
• 58:32
  Speaker 3: But what from the COVID experience did you see in
• 58:36
  Speaker 3: terms of the breakdown of the US health infrastructure. A
• 58:40
  Speaker 3: lot of the lack of trust between the mainstream population
• 58:44
  Speaker 3: and the authorities that has also woven into this narrative
• 58:47
  Speaker 3: that you've written in Biological War.
• 58:49
  Speaker 6: I think you pointed out like a really important point
• 58:53
  Speaker 6: I found too. One In terms of lessons learned from COVID,
• 58:58
  Speaker 6: or rather maybe lessons not learned, Number one was the
• 59:02
  Speaker 6: United States is wofully unprepared despite spending billions of dollars.
• 59:08
  Speaker 6: And I quickly take the reader through some of those numbers.
• 59:11
  Speaker 6: But you know, it's remarkable to think that the case
• 59:14
  Speaker 6: fatality rate of COVID was one percent. So that's the
• 59:18
  Speaker 6: number of people per one hundred who die of the
• 59:22
  Speaker 6: disease who catch the disease. There are pathogens out there
• 59:26
  Speaker 6: with a hundred percent case fatality rate, and so that
• 59:30
  Speaker 6: fact that we are unprepared should really make people wake
• 59:34
  Speaker 6: up and pay attention to what can be done. The
• 59:37
  Speaker 6: second important point is what you mentioned, which is the
• 59:40
  Speaker 6: absolute fracturing of public opinion about science, about medicine, about
• 59:46
  Speaker 6: the trustworthiness of public health officials. This was a disaster
• 59:51
  Speaker 6: in COVID, and to my eye, not only has it
• 59:55
  Speaker 6: not been sort of resolved, there hasn't been a sort
• 59:58
  Speaker 6: of you know, denument about what really happened, and Okay,
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 6: this happened, let's move on because this is a real threat. Instead,
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 6: you just have this two sides digging deeper into their positions,
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 6: and this is at the peril of the American people.
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: Well, and let's talk about some of the moves that
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: Trump administration has made. RFK Junior installed as HHS secretary.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: There have been something like twenty five percent of the
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: CDC workforce which has been cut. We've withdrawn from the
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: World Health Organization. You know, are you concerned when you
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: see those cuts that that further degrades our readiness.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 6: I'm concerned because of the narrative. I'm concerned because what
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 6: you know, the actions, of course, and those really need
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 6: to be looked at, but the narrative on both sides.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 6: I am doing this because we are doing this, because
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 6: it's very rarely in the name of the general public.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 6: It's instead, you know, sort of a dig at the
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 6: political opponent. And again I do not write about politics.
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 6: I try to stay above the friend so that I
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 6: can just deliver the facts. But I think people that
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 6: read bi biological war as an area and it's just
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 6: one scenario, it's not only a scenario, will astonished when
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 6: they learn of the government's own plans in the event
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 6: of an outbreak or an incident of a genetically modified pathogen.
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 6: When the people learn that the government has plans to
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 6: save itself. It's a very classified program that I learned
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 6: about from one of the authors of the program who
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 6: took me. And therefore you up to the edge of
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 6: what can legally be known about this program called devolution.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 6: You learn that there are plans in place for certain
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 6: components of the government while in essence hate to be
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 6: a dramatist here, but the rest of us die miserable
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 6: deaths of some kind of horrible pathogen.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you write that it's a classified last resort program
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 3: that will transfer power to a hidden leadership group. So
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 3: can you maybe go into that a little bit more so,
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 3: we're not talking about elected officials necessarily. We're talking about
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 3: civilian or military officials who would effectively govern or govern
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: whatever's rests or left of us.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 6: Absolutely, the program is even spookier than you would think.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 6: It's called devolution or devolution depends on how you pronounce it.
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 6: I was taken through some of the details by Craig Fugate,
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 6: who was Obama's former FEMA director and who signed off
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 6: on the sort of last monograph about this program, which
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 6: is classified. The name Devolution is not classified, and that's
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 6: why we can learn a little bit about it from him.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 6: But it's a pre selected, pre designated subset of individuals
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 6: who will move off to these secret sites bunkers, if
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 6: you will, called cold sites, warm sites, and hot sites,
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 6: and they take over plans to restore the Constitution in
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 6: the event of anarchy and insurrection and this, you know,
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 6: it's pretty astonishing to learn that. The idea is that
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 6: most of the powers that be that are in power
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 6: will likely die, and so there has to be this
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 6: secondary group of individuals. Those are the people you know
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 6: who have a go bag stashed in the trunk of
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 6: their car.
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: So tell us a little bit more about this, because
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: it sounds wild. It sounds like the sort of thing
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: like Alex Jones will be ranting or raving about. And
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: yet you have, you know, hard reporting on the reality
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: of this lasts or plan in what type of event
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: would this process be triggered? Who has selected these people?
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: Who decides that, okay, it's a devolution time? How does
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: this all work?
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: Yes?
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 6: And anyone who doubts the reality of this can certainly
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 6: google FCD one Federal Continuity Directive one. And that's the
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 6: unclassified version of what I'm talking about. And you know,
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 6: the list itself is classified. Who has been chosen, who
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 6: is on that list is classified. What we can know
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 6: is that the program actually exists, and the event that
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 6: would trigger it is what is called a near extinction
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 6: level event. It's kind of exactly like it sounds, which
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 6: in itself is terribly unsettling. And the protocol that triggers it,
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 6: I learned, is something called COGCN, and that stands for
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 6: Continuity of Government Readiness Condition, and in this case, it
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 6: would be one number one. COGCN one triggers devolution. The
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 6: way that Fugate explained it to me, many people are
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 6: familiar with deaf con, the system for the of defense
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 6: readiness that the Defense Department runs by, And of course
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 6: def Con one is nuclear war. And so you have
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 6: this idea that COGCN one in a biological attack or
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 6: incident does have to be an attack. It can be
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 6: a lab league and if it begins to take over,
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 6: an anarchy and insurrection occurs, which is what many of
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 6: these Defense Department wargames I looked at Anticipate were at devolution.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 3: Well, what concerns me about that ANNIE is that defcon
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 3: one is a definable condition that means the United States
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 3: is under immediate nuclear attack COGCON one. I mean, who
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 3: defines what an extinction level event is like? Is there
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 3: a percent I mean obviously you don't know exactly, but
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 3: like a percent lethality a lab league? Could it be
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: used potentially as a pretext for a seizure of power?
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 3: I mean, can you maybe go into a little bit
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 3: of that, and then some more on the war games
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 3: as well, which I know that you write about of
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 3: the worry within the wargames that the civilians may technically
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 3: be in control, but they lack the ability to actually
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 3: enforce many of the laws that they necessarily would want to,
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 3: which would enable effectively like a military takeover.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 6: One of the most stunning things about really looking at
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 6: a biological attack or incident was that the real fear
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 6: of the Defense Department and its partners HHS, you know, FEMA, DHS,
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 6: the fear is the secondary effects, the fear of infection.
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 6: That is a quote I came across often, fear of
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 6: infection is what will likely lead to anarchy and insurrection,
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 6: and we all know what that's like. There's this visceral
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 6: sense of you know, getting a disease, and of course
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 6: everyone's thinking, I have to make sure I don't catch this,
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 6: and that's where you have insurrection come in. And so
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 6: what precisely triggers the level of COGCN. I certainly want
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 6: to know more, and I would hope that now that
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 6: I've put some of this information into the public discourse,
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 6: that others would begin to really drill down on this
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 6: through foyas and other means and get awareness to the
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 6: public about what we're up against. Not just to sort
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 6: of be furious with the government that there's a group
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 6: that will save itself, but you know the point of
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 6: me writing a book like this and nuclear war is
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 6: not panic as much as I believe it is pressure,
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 6: pressure to begin looking at what systems need to be
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 6: put in place to protect all of us, because in
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 6: the event of a near extinction level event, it's exactly
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 6: like it sounds, we all die.
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: Sober mentioned earlier, we just did a block on Kimmy
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: K three and the development of these very powerful AI
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: tools which are now widely available with really no safety
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: guardrails to speak of. How much does this concern you
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: when you're looking at these developments, you know what thoughts
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: are going through your head about the potential consequences.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 6: It's interesting you should ask that question, because I've often
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 6: thought about that, and I'll give you a raally sort
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 6: of disquieting answer, which is that last week I was
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 6: asked to do a Q and A for DARPA for
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 6: their Biology, Science and Technology Study group, and that was
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 6: raised by others. There was a part of that Q
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 6: and A where I was just listening and one of
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 6: the charts that was put up was precisely how dangerous
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 6: AI and biology are together. And there was even talk
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 6: about whether or not a situation needed to come about
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 6: where the plug would be pulled. It's just a fascinating
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 6: concept that you could actually pull the plug on bio
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 6: and AI. And from what I understand, the real hurdle
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 6: in that is getting all six CEOs of these AI
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 6: companies to agree to all pull the plug, which is
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 6: a very very bizarre concept when you're a national security
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 6: reporter who's been looking at this for twenty years and
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 6: is suddenly realizing this is actually true, that now there
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 6: is more power in the hands of six private individuals
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 6: full stop. Then the government organization that I myself have
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 6: written about DARPA, which I used to say when I
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 6: wrote the book The Pentagon's Brain, which published, you know,
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 6: ten years ago, I used to say, no one is
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 6: more scientifically advanced than DARPA, and I must shift that
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 6: statement now based on new information.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: That's fascinating.
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you really wrote the book on DARPA and blew
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 3: a lot of the you know, so nobody really knew
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 3: anything about it until I think your book came out.
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 3: And so when you've written now multiple of these successes
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 3: from DARPA to nuclear war scenario to biological war a
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 3: scenario kind of zooming out when you say you want
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 3: to provide information so that things could be done. What
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 3: recommendations then would you make Is it just awareness? Conversations
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 3: like these so people like us know, for elected leaders,
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 3: what should they be thinking about as they deal with
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 3: the hullabluo of whatever is in the news today while
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 3: this kind of lurks in the shadows behind them.
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 6: I am an old school journalist trained that way, so
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 6: I stay out of tribal politics. I think it's really
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 6: important for people to sort of lay down their swords
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 6: and begin to realize that uncertainty is a pathway towards success.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 6: If you can admit, you know, I don't really know,
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 6: then I believe we can begin to make progress. You know.
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 6: An interesting point that I raise in the book, and
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 6: I stay away from sort of, you know, spending too
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 6: much time on COVID, but a pathogen that is airborne
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 6: is the biggest fear within the biological community. Airborne means
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 6: the weapon system is our lungs, individual human lungs. For
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 6: the first three months of the COVID pandemic, the WHO
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 6: and the CDC tweeted repeatedly. I have a copy of
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 6: the tweet in my book. COVID not airborne, not was
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 6: in capital letters. Millions of people were dying and they
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 6: were tweeting this, and of course we now know COVID
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 6: was airborne. COVID is airborne, COVID is a respiratory disease,
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 6: that is how it was being transmitted. And yet when
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 6: I tried to get an answer from who from CDC,
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 6: why haven't you gone on the record and corrected this, apologized,
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 6: explain to people that uncertainty is inherent in biology. We
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 6: all have different physiology. The answer was no comment.
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 4: Annie.
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: Lastly, since we have you and we've been covering the
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: Iran war with great interest, we've been covering Russian Ukraine
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: with a lot of interest. Obviously, nuclear weapons are at
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: the heart of both of these conflicts. You know, as
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: you survey the current geo political landscape, what conflagrations concern
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: you the most with regard to a potential break of
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: the nuclear taboo.
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 6: Well, nuclear threats to may are profoundly dangerous. I've looked
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 6: at this since the book Nuclear War as Scenario first
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 6: published and putin was threatening the use of nuclear weapons,
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 6: which is extremely dangerous. But we must be factual here.
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 6: The current president in his first administration sort of set
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 6: the bar by essentially, you know, rhetorically threatening nuclear war
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 6: with North Korea, and we all remember that exchange from
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 6: the first Trump administration. So I believe that threats are
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 6: extremely dangerous. And this is because I know from looking
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 6: at Pentagon wargames involving nuclear war, that everybody in the
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 6: Defense Department knows that nuclear war, no matter how it begins,
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 6: only ends in one way, and that is total apocalyptic annihilation.
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: Well, Annie, as as always, thank you so much for
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: joining us. I'm going to be reading the book.
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 3: I hope everybody reads the book, and then I hope
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 3: they pick up the rest of your catalog everything you've
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 3: ever written. Again, as I said, one of my favorite
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 3: contemporary authors, thank you so much for joining us.
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 4: Another thing for me to be terrified about.
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 6: Thank you, Annie, pressure not panic.
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 4: There you go, there you go, ik you.
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: Thank you