Latest / TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast / #773: Open Source AI Is Non-Negotiable with Conner Brown
Transcript
- 0:00You've had a dynamic where money has become freer than free.
- 0:10We talk about a Fed just gone nuts.
- 0:13All the central banks going nuts.
- 0:16So it's all acting like safe haven.
- 0:18I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins.
- 0:25In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor.
- 0:28I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin.
- 0:31If you're not paying attention, you probably should be.
- 0:36DC, it's easy to get to from Philadelphia.
- 0:38I think I want to be here a lot more.
- 0:40We need you here, Marty.
- 0:41Do you?
- 0:41We need you here in the trenches.
- 0:42Yeah, we've got PubKey now.
- 0:44We've got the office set up.
- 0:46We need more Marty Bent.
- 0:47We need rips all the time in DC.
- 0:49I prefer them in person, as you know.
- 0:52Yeah.
- 0:52We've only ever recorded in person.
- 0:53Yes.
- 0:54This is the third time now.
- 0:55As is tradition.
- 0:55We didn't wait, what was it, seven, eight years between the second and third, like we did with the first and second.
- 1:01Right.
- 1:01We're going to keep these recurring basis.
- 1:03A lot's going to be happening in D.C.
- 1:05D.C. is going to be, you know, the new up and coming important city, I think.
- 1:09Yeah.
- 1:09Everyone likes to talk about Austin and Miami.
- 1:12But this is where a lot of stuff is going to happen over the next five, ten years with all the technology changes.
- 1:18Like D.C. is going to be the true city to be in, I think, in the coming years.
- 1:23That's why I told you this last time I was here, I've been to the city more times in the last six months than I was in the first 34 years of my life.
- 1:31Yeah. I mean, I'm not saying it's a great thing. I would prefer it not be the place that the magic is happening.
- 1:37And then but just with the way things are headed. Yeah, I do unfortunately think it's important that we're here.
- 1:45Yes. A couple of things on the agenda today. We're going to talk about AI, not only the policy implications around AI,
- 1:52but actually implementing it in our businesses, particularly at BPI.
- 1:57And what you guys have been up to.
- 1:58I think it's very fitting that we're meeting today because you guys launched the Q2 report of what BPI has been up to this year.
- 2:06So I think starting there and going through all the policy efforts that you guys have been pushing forward and the wins and maybe losses or neutral victories you guys may have.
- 2:18Yeah, gosh, so much stuff going on.
- 2:21But I think at the corner of it, it's just this technology continues to improve, whether it be both with Bitcoin and AI.
- 2:32And that is just speeding up the pace of change.
- 2:36We're seeing it in our organization.
- 2:38We're seeing it in what we're being tasked with in different meetings and stuff.
- 2:43And so it's really it's been a lot.
- 2:47So yesterday we released what we did over just the past three months.
- 2:49and it's crazy. I was reading through it and I just couldn't believe how much we got accomplished
- 2:55in three months. And, um, you know, people say like AI is going to like replace all our jobs
- 3:00and stuff. And like everyone I know is working harder than they ever have before, because suddenly
- 3:04all of these sort of stray ideas that you were like, Oh, I don't have the people or time to do
- 3:08that. You can actually just roll up your sleeves and do it with like an afternoon. Um, and so,
- 3:14yeah, it has been sort of overwhelming. We've been doing a lot of new international work. We've been
- 3:18doing lots of new research that we were able to build out much deeper than we had been previously.
- 3:24So yeah, it's been a whirlwind really since I joined. I mean, we last spoke when I first joined
- 3:30BPI and just the change in the organization since then has been crazy, crazy. And we're really
- 3:39excited for what it means for the next five years of what we'd be able to build here in DC.
- 3:44Yeah. Well, let's start internationally. Yeah. Taiwan. How did that happen?
- 3:49So Taiwan, this is a perfect example. We had an idea for a research paper. One of our fellow,
- 3:54we said, hey, Jake, you have a background in DOD. Would you be interested in doing a paper on
- 4:00Taiwan's cash reserve? Why diversifying into Bitcoin would make sense for them?
- 4:06And he was excited for it. Taiwan has a really interesting history. I didn't know this,
- 4:12but Taiwan exists entirely because they use their gold as a strategic resource to like flee the country, basically.
- 4:20So the only reason Taiwan exists is because they airlifted all their gold outside of mainland China and were able to fund a government exile.
- 4:29And so we thought, oh, that'd be interesting. We have the research expertise.
- 4:34We'll just do a paper sort of thought experiment.
- 4:36And then we get an email like two weeks after we released it with photos from Taiwan's legislature.
- 4:45And they're like, your paper was amazing.
- 4:48It is from a member of Congress, Legislator Ka.
- 4:51He emails us photos of him delivering our paper to the premier of the legislative Yuan, the head of the central bank.
- 4:58And we were just like, oh, my gosh, this is crazy.
- 5:03and then a few weeks after that we got invited to go and brief them for a week so
- 5:08um another thing has been keeping us busy is lots of international travel so what can you share about
- 5:14what was shared in the briefing or the information that was exchanged i can say that taiwan every
- 5:23person we talk to is really really cognizant of this the geopolitical situation they're in
- 5:30it feels like the weight of the world is on them and they're bringing it up all the time of they know that
- 5:37they've always been in this tenuous position between the United States and China
- 5:42and that every day they feel like the stakes are higher because the strategic importance of Taiwan
- 5:49goes up every day as the compute build out accelerates and there's more and more value on
- 5:55the island and it just leaves them in this like strange psychological position where everyone is
- 6:03thinking about it constantly like what does this mean for us what does it mean for the people of
- 6:08Taiwan for a long time we had this principle of the silicon shield that America would defend
- 6:14Taiwan's national interest it would defend them in a military escalation because of how valuable
- 6:20their chips are in many ways that's an even stronger case today than it was 20 years ago
- 6:25But at the same time, it can also be seen as a reason that China is even more likely to intervene because they're now not just have this historical rift, but they have a strategic element here of, you know, China is trying to figure out what it means.
- 6:43Could they actually pull off a blockade? All that. And everyone in Taiwan knows that people on both sides are trying to figure out what their plan is.
- 6:53And that just came through across every conversation we had.
- 6:58We met with people from both the different parties there.
- 7:02The DPP and the KMT are the two ruling political parties there.
- 7:06The DPP currently has the majority and the KMT as an opposition party is leaning more towards some form of reconciliation or, you know, some sort of lessening of sort of hostilities with China.
- 7:26And it's it's just really, really interesting political dynamic.
- 7:29If you look at all the other policy issues for the parties, they pretty much agree on, I don't know, 90 percent of policy issues.
- 7:39That's what I was going to ask.
- 7:39Like, how is the partisan polarity over there?
- 7:43It's it's it's very, very strong, but it's just on this issue of reconciliation.
- 7:50What side do we end up?
- 7:51What side do we lean towards?
- 7:54And I think that both of them are just coming to grips with it.
- 7:58It's like what everything else we do.
- 8:00It's so hard to predict the future right now
- 8:03because of AI, the strategic questions wrapped up in that.
- 8:08And Taiwan feels it probably stronger
- 8:10than anywhere else on earth.
- 8:11I mean, it's just in the daily conversation all the time.
- 8:15So what I can share is we met at length
- 8:20with their head regulator
- 8:23for their financial services commission
- 8:26and the Central Bank of Taiwan.
- 8:29And it was my first time meeting people from a foreign central bank.
- 8:34Super interesting.
- 8:36I went over there not really knowing what to expect.
- 8:39So, you know, you write a paper on Bitcoin.
- 8:43I've met many central bankers, you know, over the years working in policy.
- 8:48And I think everyone has always been extremely skeptical of Bitcoin, you know, arm's length.
- 8:54Oh, yeah, nice to meet you.
- 8:55Pleasantries.
- 8:56This was the first time I walked into a briefing. They had read our report cover to cover. All the different members of the Taiwanese Central Bank had taken extensive notes and had really, really good questions, actually, about the reasoning, the practicalities.
- 9:14without going into too much detail.
- 9:17I was surprised at their hospitality,
- 9:21their level of understanding,
- 9:24the quality of their questions.
- 9:26It was just a fantastic experience.
- 9:28We want to go back.
- 9:30And yeah, so hopefully more updates on that soon.
- 9:33But yeah, I think that this is something
- 9:37that is easy to forget about is what a signal
- 9:41that the American administration has sent to the world.
- 9:46You know, no one is ever excited with the pace of change in D.C.
- 9:49or how, you know, fast or slow things go.
- 9:53But things like the executive order for the SBR,
- 9:57like that is still being digested actively.
- 10:01And everyone around the world is trying to figure out what it means,
- 10:04you know, what to do with that.
- 10:06So it was a really, really cool experience.
- 10:09And it was my first time being there.
- 10:11So it was just all around just fantastic.
- 10:13Yeah.
- 10:14SBR, they're fighting over who actually gets control over the reserve right now, right?
- 10:18It's between commerce and treasury.
- 10:21I mean, it was something that we kind of scratched our heads at a little bit when the EO first came out,
- 10:26which was they've jointly delegated authority between treasury and commerce to execute the SBR executive order.
- 10:34And I think they're just still trying to figure out exactly how do they do this?
- 10:39How do they build up the capacity?
- 10:42I mean, it's been sort of embarrassing
- 10:44for the administration a bit.
- 10:47You know, they had that scandal
- 10:48where they gave custody of the Marshalls funds
- 10:53to, you know, a contractor with shady origins
- 10:57whose son then ran off with some of the money.
- 11:00I mean, it's just like a-
- 11:01Comical.
- 11:02It really is just like a circus.
- 11:05So in true government fashion,
- 11:07it's always slower than you would expect.
- 11:09but i do i mean what we've heard is um you know there are lots of things happening um
- 11:18that people are trying to get things stood up and there's just like an endless series of
- 11:23bureaucratic hurdles um but they say expect something soon so two weeks tm we know that
- 11:31well here yeah two weeks two weeks two weeks to flatten the curve two weeks to execute the sbr yo
- 11:37I don't know. Bring it back internationally. UK. UK. Yeah. Another thing we went over there.
- 11:43And I guess what we're seeing is what happened in D.C. and with the new administration has just
- 11:51want all of these other governments are wanting to get the inside scoop from the people that work
- 11:57through the process of what how is the U.S. thinking about this and how can they be a fast
- 12:04follow. That was the, we went over to the UK and heard that term like a hundred times. The UK wants
- 12:11to be a fast follow. And, um, it was honestly pretty surprising. So I went over there just sort
- 12:17of expecting that they would like throw me in jail if I was looking at Twitter and instead,
- 12:22like surprisingly positive. Um, you know, they had just announced a cap on stable coin balances.
- 12:30and then the week we went over there,
- 12:33they actually rescinded that.
- 12:35And they're still, like many other governments,
- 12:39trying to wrap their head around what all of this means.
- 12:43But again, surprised by the level of openness,
- 12:46we met with people and we did a briefing
- 12:49in the House of Lords.
- 12:51It's a ton of fun, first time being in there.
- 12:53It was in the Parliament building,
- 12:55so it felt like A lot of pageantry involved Lots of pageantry They have statues in there from like 1600s I tried to take a photo I got accosted by some security guard
- 13:07looked like the Hogwarts like cafeteria,
- 13:11but yeah, surprisingly optimistic there too.
- 13:15You know, afterwards the head of their,
- 13:19is like a head of innovation at their FCA,
- 13:21put out a thing about the importance of Bitcoin policy.
- 13:23I mean, we have to remember, like these people, they don't even understand the difference between Bitcoin and shitcoin.
- 13:30They don't understand how Bitcoin is different from the parade of horribles they hear about.
- 13:37And they are very interested in the story we have to tell.
- 13:42So I think the lessons learned is you have to tell the story in a way that relates to their history.
- 13:49You know, when we go over there, we talk about, hey, you know, Newton set you guys up on the gold standard and that paved the way for 200 years of British Empire.
- 13:59So those are the types of stakes that are at play here.
- 14:02And I think explaining in those broader historical terms, same with Taiwan.
- 14:07You know, we talked a lot about their historical use of gold as funding government and exile.
- 14:12So relating to those longer term historical narratives
- 14:16for a country, same here in America,
- 14:20is the key to getting people to understand
- 14:23the policy implications.
- 14:24Yeah, it's incredible work.
- 14:27It's exhausting.
- 14:29Thank you.
- 14:30I mean, we got a lot more to do.
- 14:31There's no shortage of work.
- 14:33Well, I mean, you guys are the hot chick on the block,
- 14:36not because of Bitcoin, because of AI.
- 14:38I mean, bringing this back to Taiwan.
- 14:40Yeah.
- 14:42You guys, I think Sam spearheaded the report,
- 14:45basically unearthing that China has been influencing
- 14:50conversations around AI data centers
- 14:51here in the United States.
- 14:52Yeah, that started as, like we were saying with AI,
- 14:57you can just do so much more.
- 14:58So it started as sort of like, I don't know, a side bit.
- 15:04People had mentioned to us, Bitcoin miners mentioned to us,
- 15:08they've been seeing just unprecedented local opposition
- 15:12and that they've been doing this for years.
- 15:15And they're used to some local concerns,
- 15:18obviously with any major infrastructure project,
- 15:20people are gonna have questions.
- 15:22But a few months ago they said,
- 15:24you know, we're seeing the same local people
- 15:26that have concerns, typical stuff.
- 15:28But we're also seeing this new thing,
- 15:30which is people from out of town that,
- 15:34while the local people will ask a reasonable question like,
- 15:37okay, where is this gonna be located?
- 15:40Is this gonna create noise?
- 15:42Is this gonna impact me in XYZ way?
- 15:45There would be these people from out of town
- 15:47that would really aggressively say,
- 15:50this is gonna give everyone an aneurysm, right?
- 15:53Or this is going to destroy all the bees in the area.
- 15:56I heard that no bees could ever exist
- 15:58within 50 miles of a data center, is that true?
- 16:00Just like ludicrous things.
- 16:03And they were like, we've never seen this before.
- 16:06Can you guys see if there's anything going on?
- 16:09He said, yeah, we'll take a look at it.
- 16:11And we just got Sam Lyman that joined.
- 16:14So he came over from Treasury
- 16:17and Sam has experience dealing with this stuff.
- 16:20So he used to work-
- 16:21He was at Riot, right?
- 16:22He used to work at Riot.
- 16:22He's done the rounds in local communities in Texas,
- 16:26working on this stuff.
- 16:28And he just kind of started pulling the thread.
- 16:31And you start going through these different layers
- 16:34of nonprofits and all the different activist groups
- 16:38that are on the ground and mobilizing.
- 16:41And it just kind of shocked all of us.
- 16:46And then it just all sort of worked out
- 16:49in the virality of it,
- 16:51because everyone's talking about data centers now,
- 16:54and we were really the first to sort of
- 16:56put all the pieces together and say,
- 16:58well, actually, if you look at all these different projects,
- 17:01we're seeing a common element,
- 17:02which is the party for socialism and liberation
- 17:07are functioning as at least important organizers
- 17:11in a lot of these debates.
- 17:13And they have sort of a dubious history.
- 17:17So yeah, it's been a whirlwind past couple of months
- 17:20as that story broke.
- 17:21And who's the individual behind all of it?
- 17:23Who's very vocally anti?
- 17:25We don't know who is like,
- 17:28there's a lot of questions about the organization.
- 17:30What we know is that someone named Neville Roy Singham
- 17:38is a very wealthy philanthropist that lives
- 17:44at least part of the time in Shanghai,
- 17:47has said a lot of positive things
- 17:49that sort of align his views with those of China.
- 17:55And he is at least funding some nonprofits
- 17:59that are doing anti-data center stuff.
- 18:04It is, there's a lot of dark money involved.
- 18:06A lot of it is sort of unclear
- 18:08and we're trying to piece it all together
- 18:11and understand exactly what's happening.
- 18:15But yeah, I'd encourage anyone that's interested in this,
- 18:18read our reports.
- 18:19We have two different foreign influence reports
- 18:21and the case for American AI that sort of go over
- 18:25exactly what this nonprofit structure looks like,
- 18:29sort of all the different elements of foreign influence
- 18:30we've identified.
- 18:33And we've sort of detailed case studies
- 18:36of what we're seeing on the ground.
- 18:37And the one thing I do wanna say is,
- 18:40this is not to say in any way, shape or form
- 18:44that Americans themselves don't have legitimate concerns
- 18:47about this massive multi multi-billion dollar,
- 18:51trillion dollar build out of compute.
- 18:52Multi-trillion at this point.
- 18:54Yeah, I mean, it's like huge in its implications.
- 18:57These projects are larger than anything
- 18:59we've ever built before and are going to continue
- 19:02to just scale up over time.
- 19:05People have many legitimate questions about that.
- 19:08How is that gonna change their way of life?
- 19:10I don't think that the narratives that Anthropik
- 19:15or some of these effective altruist groups are putting out
- 19:18are compelling to the everyday American.
- 19:20And that is manifesting in a lot of concerns
- 19:22about this build out.
- 19:24So all of that, I think there are legitimate concerns and fears about AI and these data centers, their impact.
- 19:32But a proper accounting of this means you need to also think, OK, is there a foreign influence?
- 19:39What does that look like? Because there are strategic questions at play.
- 19:43And we know that our adversaries are savvy. They understand how social media works.
- 19:49They understand that in modern global great power competition, you're usually not fighting with boots on the ground.
- 19:58Fifth generation warfare.
- 20:00Yeah.
- 20:00The podcast I recorded this morning, we talked all about it.
- 20:02Yeah, yeah.
- 20:03I mean, it's just, it is the modern battlefield is on Twitter and Instagram.
- 20:07And they are, I think that we're just seeing like the latest in.
- 20:12Well, that's why we should all be thankful that BPI exists.
- 20:16We try to do our part at TFTC, but you have to engage in fifth generation warfare.
- 20:20And that means going, pulling on the threads, writing the reports, getting it out there.
- 20:25And I mean, was that the most viral thing you guys have ever done?
- 20:27Funnily not related to Bitcoin.
- 20:30Yeah, it was probably the most viral.
- 20:31I mean, we're on the front page of New York Times last week.
- 20:34So, but, you know, just the beginning, just the beginning.
- 20:37I think there might have been, I don't know.
- 20:40I mean, the numbers on it have just been insane.
- 20:42You know, it's one of those things that you hit at the right time and get circulated by the right people.
- 20:45mark andreason tells all his followers to read it and then the internet explodes you know yeah i mean
- 20:50that's why we're that's why i'm in town today is for the event tonight which is talking about energy
- 20:55policy data centers uh the intersection and how we should think about these things approach them
- 21:01and i had a conversation last night if you listen to the previous episode you're getting this again
- 21:07but i think it's important to reiterate to connor i i was sitting down with somebody who was
- 21:11involved in one of the largest utility companies in the United States.
- 21:16And we were just talking shop about like, all right, how do you,
- 21:19how do you educate the masses about this?
- 21:20Cause that's, I think one of the biggest uphill battles we have,
- 21:23and Bitcoiners I think know this more deeply than the AI data center people
- 21:29now, because we've been doing this for 10 years,
- 21:30but there is a lack of understanding of energy, the grid,
- 21:35how all of these things work, how data centers, Bitcoin mining operations,
- 21:40how they interact and how they affect your ability to access cheap electricity.
- 21:46And that's why I'm happy that American Bitcoin, PubKey and PubKey are starting this series,
- 21:51which would go for the next 10 months.
- 21:53But having conversations around these things.
- 21:56And I think to your point about social media, it's like packaging it and getting it out there in a way,
- 22:02which I think your report did very well.
- 22:04Yeah.
- 22:04I mean, it's so important to tell the story.
- 22:06And I do think it is critical to Bitcoin as well is people if we are going down a path where people are hostile to just energy production generally.
- 22:17That is not good for anyone.
- 22:21But but really.
- 22:24It's not surprising what we're seeing either, because what we're seeing is.
- 22:29a big tech executive gets up and says, well, AI is probably going to be as dangerous as pandemics
- 22:37and nuclear weapons combined. And it in the process is also going to take your job and the
- 22:43jobs of everyone, you know, and yeah, we're going to keep building it. Okay. How is this going to be
- 22:51compelled? Like this is not compelling for anyone. And I think it's just such a break from the
- 22:57American tradition of leaning into innovation and entrepreneurship and the optimism of building
- 23:04great things. That is what has made people inspired and want to come to America and want to build here.
- 23:10And what causes people to get up every day and build great companies is human achievement and
- 23:17greatness and energy is at the bottom of all of that. And, you know, I'm really excited. There's
- 23:23a lot of really, really great startups now that are getting into, I'm really glad to see there
- 23:27are startups that are doing real hard tech, um, energy production, breakthroughs and stuff like
- 23:36Valor Atomics or whatever. Um, you know, I saw that on Twitter, it's been all over my feed. Um,
- 23:41but if we're not telling a compelling story about how technology benefits us with either Bitcoin
- 23:49or open source AI or, you know, biotechnology, if we're not telling that compelling story,
- 23:56then it's going to manifest in hostility in a million different ways, all the way from the
- 24:03hyper local level of not letting any of this stuff get built all the way to federal licensing
- 24:10regimes, KYC for compute and surveillance of all your chat logs. It gets like very,
- 24:16very dystopian very quickly when you start convincing everyone that this is this crazy
- 24:23danger that we have no precedent for how to handle. It's just not true. It's not how
- 24:27our society was built. We're a society that trusts people with dangerous things. We let people have
- 24:34guns. I mean, in theory, America itself was founded on the idea that the people themselves
- 24:41can be trusted with dangerous tools, with self-government. I mean, this is like the core
- 24:46what we believe is that the people can be trusted with things. And if they break that trust, they
- 24:52will be prosecuted accordingly. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. It's it's it's we've dealt with dangerous
- 24:59things in the past. So freaks, this episode is brought to you by blocks Bitcoin ecosystem. You
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- 25:49All right, freaks, you know me.
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- 26:56slash Bitcoin. Check it out. I think I'm back to the AI narrative. And it's one thing we've been
- 27:01working on at TFTC too, because we've been leaning in and maybe we can spitball some ideas, compare
- 27:07notes to how we've been implementing this stuff. But I think I've been trying to do this more and
- 27:11it's not an attempt to brag, but I think people, the broader public has an outside looking in view
- 27:20of AI and most of them haven't like really dove deeper than downloading chat gpt and
- 27:26interacting with the chat bot and I was actually relieved to see secretary percent do an interview
- 27:34this morning we were clipping it at tftc but talking about this exact problem where the
- 27:38interview was asking him dario modi is telling us it's going to take all of our jobs and you have
- 27:43this secretary treasury has to be like well like he's wrong about his business like if you actually
- 27:49you look into the data, I believe that AI proliferating,
- 27:55people learning how to use it is actually going to lead
- 27:57to thousands of flowers of individual small businesses
- 28:03springing up.
- 28:04You can do the job of 10 men, 100 men with one now.
- 28:08And if you're implementing this tech at your company,
- 28:11which we both are, it is very obvious that that is true.
- 28:14Like you said, I've never worked harder in my life
- 28:16because I can do more, but just diving into
- 28:19and really bringing like a real world example
- 28:23of how AI is not taking any of the jobs at BPI.
- 28:27It's extending your ability to do more jobs.
- 28:29Yeah.
- 28:30How are you guys implementing it?
- 28:32Yeah, so when Claude Code came out
- 28:36and then Claude Co-Work, it just completely blew our minds.
- 28:41We had been using these tools a lot.
- 28:43I was already, I guess, like a power user of this
- 28:45in many ways, but the transition to agentic models
- 28:50that can actually do full workflows is just crazy.
- 28:55And so we just sat down early in January
- 28:59and had an all staff call where we said,
- 29:02here's what we're doing.
- 29:03We're gonna really lean into this.
- 29:05We're gonna become the best people in DC
- 29:07to know how to use these tools.
- 29:10And each of us spent, I don't know,
- 29:13I don't know how many hours, right?
- 29:16Each of us just started playing with the tools, right?
- 29:17We said, everyone, think about these tools.
- 29:20Here's a brief overview.
- 29:22We did a presentation for like two hours with the team and said,
- 29:24here's generally what they can do.
- 29:26We want everyone on the team to spend a lot of time using these.
- 29:30Think about your existing workflows.
- 29:32Everyone has some sort of recurring tasks.
- 29:35They do think about how you can build these into recurring workflows.
- 29:39And then we want you to present to the team how you're going to use this.
- 29:46And the great thing about it is you can then encode those workflows into skills.
- 29:51And so that was a major unlock for the org because suddenly we just had our team's skill set just started populating.
- 30:03And we had a new thing in Slack of announcer skills here and people can know how to use them.
- 30:09And so it became this force multiplier where if you needed a specific skill to be called, obviously you would if you needed something for research, you talk to the head of research.
- 30:21But if you're doing something that needs some research, you can call the research skill and sort of like slot that in.
- 30:28And it was just like it was an incredible process to see it happen because now we're six months past that.
- 30:36and I would say our work product is better quality than ever before. We're getting a lot
- 30:43more traction on social media. It's just very clear to me that there are going to be two types
- 30:50of organizations, and we're going to see the K-shaped divergence of the firm. There are going
- 30:56to be firms that start to punch well above their weight because they have leaned into gaining the
- 31:04expertise in these tools. And the best thing about the tools is if your team really understands
- 31:12not only how to use them, but how to improve them over time, give really good feedback to them,
- 31:17make sure that the agents themselves are taking notes on your feedback, you can get it so that
- 31:22every error they present to you, you never see it again. And so now we're at a point where
- 31:29not only are we doing the things that we were doing six months ago better,
- 31:33but we're doing things that we could have never done before.
- 31:36You know, like our AI research on Bitcoins preferring AI,
- 31:40sorry, AI agents preferring Bitcoin.
- 31:44That was hugely viral.
- 31:46We were able to build out an entire website,
- 31:48much more interactive, much more multimedia stuff.
- 31:51We were able to do the scale of the research
- 31:55that wouldn't have been possible before.
- 31:57So I think that there are obviously growing pains.
- 32:03we are dealing with reducing slop all the time.
- 32:08It has become this constant sort of thorn in our side
- 32:12of like, how do we make sure there's no slop
- 32:14in the organization?
- 32:15Because, you know, there are some,
- 32:19some like, you know, stumbling blocks to it
- 32:22or things you have to learn how to manage, but.
- 32:25We deal with this too.
- 32:26Yeah, it's, yeah, but like the long view is like,
- 32:30It's just so obvious that you're just going to have
- 32:34the adopters and the people that don't take the time.
- 32:37Yeah.
- 32:38Does BPI have a company brain?
- 32:39A company brain?
- 32:42What do you consider a company brain?
- 32:44It's a persistent memory system attached to a knowledge graph.
- 32:48So we have a company brain, a TFTC, it's three layered.
- 32:52So we've leaned into harnesses.
- 32:57We used OpenClaw for six months.
- 33:00And then a month ago, after hearing about Hermes so much,
- 33:03like watching it from afar, I was like,
- 33:05all right, let me try Hermes.
- 33:06So we have our main agent that we use
- 33:09for a lot of tasks at TFTCs and a VPS that I control.
- 33:13He, we're anthropomorphic,
- 33:14we're anthropomorphizing these machines.
- 33:18The clanker is in the VPS and that's where everything sits.
- 33:23So we had the OpenClaw.
- 33:25And I basically just went to the OpenClaw agent that was running on Clawed 4.6.
- 33:30And I said, hey, I want to try out Hermes.
- 33:32Can you spin up a Hermes harness for me in your server?
- 33:35And just let me know when that's set up.
- 33:38And then tell me how to create a Telegram chat with that agent.
- 33:44And I'm going to go from there.
- 33:46So, like, set it up.
- 33:47Yeah.
- 33:47And then connected it.
- 33:49I wanted to AB test four, six, Opus four, six versus GPT five, five at the time.
- 33:55Yeah.
- 33:57And so I had the Hermes harness set up, connected it to five, five as the brain and played with it for a day.
- 34:04And almost immediately I was like, oh, this is better than what we've done.
- 34:06So I'm just going to like start using this as my daily driver.
- 34:09But because we had the company brain, so in that same server, we have like a three layered memory system.
- 34:13It's like flat notes.
- 34:15It's like the sole MD, the agent.md, the skill.md files, daily notes.
- 34:19wiki llm so there's like flat markdown files then we have a qmd semantic search vector database
- 34:27which like so if i give a prompt and it has keywords in it it'll it'll query that database
- 34:32that lives on the server without wasting any tokens and it'll find context of us dealing with
- 34:37that term in the past and then we have cogni cogne which is like an obsidian vault but it's
- 34:43agent first. And so that's the third layer, which is more expressive. So you have basically terms and
- 34:52vaults of particular subjects. And QMD will like query like every time we talked about it,
- 34:59then it'll go to Cogni like, okay, we've talked about this in the past, like, how is it
- 35:03interrelational to every other thing that may relate to this topic. And so like, it gets like
- 35:07a full context of how we've dealt with these certain terms. And it has temporal context to
- 35:12so it knows when we've talked about them.
- 35:14That is amazing.
- 35:14And then it'll go to the LLM.
- 35:17Like, okay, based off all this context,
- 35:19how we frame things.
- 35:20So it has all of our transcripts,
- 35:21all of our newsletters.
- 35:23So it now knows how we frame things.
- 35:24And that has been the most ROI that we've gotten
- 35:29in terms of investing the time
- 35:31to build out a particular part of the stack
- 35:33is that brain.
- 35:34It's really interesting.
- 35:35So that sounds like you're really trying
- 35:37to get as close as possible
- 35:39to an employee who has been with the org
- 35:40since its inception.
- 35:42has seen everything
- 35:43because that's what we're doing every day
- 35:45when we're working there
- 35:46is like you're building institutional knowledge.
- 35:48That's very cool.
- 35:50We're a little bit more simplistic.
- 35:52We use just the standard
- 35:55like Claude Enterprise subscription,
- 35:57but we do have something similar
- 36:00to a brain in a sense
- 36:04that we have like a shared set of context files.
- 36:08So we've sort of curated a project file
- 36:12that then has subfolders for every different arm in the organization.
- 36:17And we have at the top a ClaudeMD file that gives a basic overview of what we are
- 36:24and sort of all of context and all the different files within it,
- 36:28and then explain how it can search through those files and understand what we're doing.
- 36:32And then each one of the arms of the organization will have its own subfolder
- 36:35for comms or design or research or whatever.
- 36:38And in each of those, we have the, you know, sub-clawed MD files for each of those subfolders, sort of example workflows, example prior precedent, and then cross-references of, all right, here is our research workflow.
- 36:56We expect you to do this 20-step process for doing a research report.
- 37:01And then once you get the user's approval or feedback, we sort of have encoded the entire life cycle of the product.
- 37:09So we'll start with, all right, if you kick off the research skill, it'll start with ideation.
- 37:15And then we have specific gates where the user provides feedback.
- 37:19And then it'll continue working up the product and then give you another user feedback gate.
- 37:24And it'll continue working up the product.
- 37:26And then once it finalizes the research portion, they'll then hand off to the comms portion or it'll hand off the design and then comms.
- 37:36And so we have it just as a sort of intricate folder and subfolder system with Claude MD files throughout.
- 37:43And it seems like an assembly line.
- 37:45Yeah.
- 37:45What do you think of it?
- 37:46Yeah, exactly.
- 37:47Yeah.
- 37:47Well, that's the thing.
- 37:48There's like a thousand ways it's going to get.
- 37:50It's like for your purposes.
- 37:51Like that probably makes a lot of sense for like our purposes.
- 37:54This makes it.
- 37:54And that's what's so fascinating
- 37:56is that the landscape is so wide right now.
- 38:00Everybody's still mapping the territory too.
- 38:02And so I just love hearing all the people saying this.
- 38:04And honestly, we could use both of these.
- 38:05We could probably use a database like that
- 38:08for just context about BPI and what are our positions
- 38:11and what are the papers we published.
- 38:14That would probably be a helpful thing
- 38:15to know how to plug in.
- 38:17What I have noticed though is you do have to be really careful
- 38:19because you can almost like accidentally context poison yourself where you'll notice it'll keep
- 38:27making an error. And then at some point you're like, oh, it's saying that because like at some
- 38:34point in my feedback to it, it like left a note for itself that it reads every single time it
- 38:40gives an output and it should not be reading that note. And like I've consistently found like
- 38:47whenever I'm having some sort of capability problem,
- 38:50it's either problems with my prompting itself
- 38:53or problems with the context that I'm giving it.
- 38:55Like I giving it bad examples of prior work product or something that aren up to the standard we need and it drawing on them for design inspiration or something and so you know always like thinking about what is the context
- 39:11for every single prompt and yeah trying to like it's almost like pruning or something like bonsai
- 39:17tree you know you want it to like constantly be improved and you know every time you use it
- 39:22you're in some ways you could like accidentally poison the context for future conversations or
- 39:28improve the context for future conversations um and teaching the employees that too of
- 39:34using these systems your initial implication your initial uh i don't know impulse would be
- 39:44if it makes a small error okay i can just like fix that myself it'll be a small tweak
- 39:48but if you understand the right way to give it feedback you can provide feedback in a way that
- 39:55what might just be an easy fix for you now is fixed forever if you just explain hey this needs
- 40:02to be fixed and keep a note for yourself to never make this problem again make no mistakes make no
- 40:08mistakes forever going forward um but it is really great to see it's it's also just really fun yeah
- 40:15i find it to be like a much more fun way of working i do too it's uh i've are you voice to
- 40:22text or are you typing stuff? I'm voice of course. Yes. Yeah. Whisper flow. I use super whisper. Oh my
- 40:28gosh. I know. I mean, we need to be better about this. Right. Um, but, uh, what, and I was just
- 40:35having this conversation with Thomas cause I co-write the newsletter now with my agent. Yeah.
- 40:42And basically what I'll do actually, does he have a name? Martin is a more sophisticated Marty.
- 40:47that's amazing okay so marina's he's trying to try to make somebody recognizing that i don't
- 40:55have the capacity to store files in my brain like right martin does on a server so he's more
- 41:00sophisticated he's going to be be better but i was just talking about this thomas to thomas like
- 41:04i was writing the newsletter here at pub key earlier and by writing the newsletter it's like
- 41:08hey basically my flow is i'll i was showing you yesterday i sent you a screenshot of the bpi q2
- 41:14report which we covered in the newsletter today and basically i yesterday when that came out i
- 41:19sent a note to our bitcoin brief uh topic in our telegram chat and said hey i want to talk about
- 41:25this tomorrow when we get to write the newsletter like this is one of the things we're gonna cover
- 41:29um so i'll do that and i'll do like anywhere from five to ten links and then morning morning of it's
- 41:35like okay pull up all the links all the emails i forwarded to you about stuff i want to cover
- 41:39and let's, I want you to, based off of the engagement
- 41:43that we've gotten in the newsletter in the past,
- 41:45you have access to that data on the back end of our CMS,
- 41:49like structure the newsletter in a way
- 41:51that we'll get the most engagement.
- 41:53But like, so we're filtering,
- 41:55I'm definitely covering these topics.
- 41:58Machine, you know, based off the topics
- 42:01we want to talk about,
- 42:02which is going to resonate the most with the audience
- 42:05and what they may deem most important.
- 42:07So like we have a lead story and then signal stories.
- 42:09So then it comes back to me, it's like,
- 42:11I think this should be the lead today,
- 42:13and these should be the signal stories,
- 42:14and here's all I'm thinking about framing it.
- 42:15And then I'll be like, okay,
- 42:17I understand why you're framing it this way,
- 42:18but let's tweak this, that.
- 42:19And I talk for like 10 minutes, like, okay,
- 42:22here's what I wanna cover frame.
- 42:23And then it's like, okay, I think we're at a good spot.
- 42:26I like the lead, I like the signal stories,
- 42:27like, let's go right.
- 42:29And so that puts together a draft,
- 42:31gets in the back end of our ghost CMS,
- 42:32and I read it twice, and then get final edits,
- 42:35like, okay, you messed up here.
- 42:36And then we hit send.
- 42:38And everybody's like, oh, you're not writing anymore.
- 42:39You're going to lose that skill.
- 42:42And I thought that for the longest time.
- 42:44I actually shied away from using Claude for writing for a while.
- 42:48But now I feel more comfortable for two reasons, one of which is the company brain is there.
- 42:51So it has that institutional knowledge of how we frame things, even how our opinions have evolved over time and how the voice and the positions that we have on certain topics.
- 43:04and it's able to inject that based off of stuff that we've talked about on the show and written
- 43:09when I was still manually writing in years past.
- 43:13The second thing is I had a conversation with somebody you know,
- 43:17we're not going to dox him on the show.
- 43:19And he completely changed my mind because people were worried,
- 43:21like, we're going to use the art of writing.
- 43:23I do still, I do write, I do type.
- 43:25I tell people, like, I don't type in there.
- 43:26I do sometimes.
- 43:27I do still write handwritten notes.
- 43:29I like that art.
- 43:30It's an art form that should never die.
- 43:32But he described it to me.
- 43:34He's like, we're basically just returning to the era of the scribe.
- 43:38And he changed the way I prompt because the way he describes me is like, when you're talking to these things, since it's an LLM with like a matrixy vector database in the back with like points of association, like you need to give it as much context as possible so you can eliminate points of association in that matrixy to give you more narrow output.
- 43:57And so what you do is you pretend like you're Napoleon Bonaparte.
- 44:01Oh, my God.
- 44:01You took it out of my mind.
- 44:03I was just about to say this.
- 44:04Right.
- 44:04So like,
- 44:05it's like after a day of battle,
- 44:06you get back to your war tent and you have like 10 scribes,
- 44:09one for munitions,
- 44:11replenishments,
- 44:11one for like war philosophy,
- 44:13like,
- 44:13ah,
- 44:13one for strategy.
- 44:14Like,
- 44:14here's where we messed up today.
- 44:16And you just talk to,
- 44:18you spin up a bunch of sessions and each session is an individual scribe that you give a bunch of context to.
- 44:24Yep.
- 44:24And it forces you to think from first principles and really articulate what you're trying to get out there.
- 44:29That's so funny.
- 44:30Bitcoiners,
- 44:30we all just like come to the same conclusions independently.
- 44:33Have you read Napoleon's biography? No. Oh, my gosh. OK. Andrew Roberts, Napoleon, a life.
- 44:39Best book I've read in a long time. Just incredible. I think about this all the time.
- 44:49Napoleon was like the most incredible human I've ever read about. He would do this. He would go
- 44:55back. He would triple dictate. He would be able to dictate faster than his scribes could write
- 45:00things down. And so he was one of the only people in recorded history that had this ability where he
- 45:07could do exactly what you said. He could dictate, tend to, it's similar to a grandmaster chess
- 45:13player who goes and plays 20 different games simultaneously and comes back and he can remember
- 45:18the context for the moves he's planning. Napoleon would do the same thing with writing these really
- 45:23just incredibly detailed and important letters to all the different world leaders, all of his
- 45:30different troops. It's crazy the breadth of what he was able to cover. But yeah, he would go back
- 45:36to the tent. And after a day of the most intense fighting in documented history, he would then go
- 45:42and dictate a letter on the importance of building a local bridge in a rural municipality in France,
- 45:47and then follow that up with a letter on the need for a girls education academy, because there
- 45:53really isn't one in this certain area of Paris. And then he'd go on to another one and dictate
- 45:58something about, you know, preparing his army for invasions in Russia. I mean, it was just
- 46:04incredible how he's able to do this. And I do think that that is what these agents allow us to do
- 46:10is multiply human agency. And that is the good timeline. The good timeline is that the best
- 46:16aspects of human greatness, achievement, and will and vitality are multiplied. And I feel that
- 46:25happening when I use this.
- 46:28But I do think it is something to be really cognizant
- 46:31of how you're using the tools.
- 46:32Like if you're using it in this dictation sense
- 46:36where you are able, when I'm using it,
- 46:40you know, and dictating to it,
- 46:42I can say so much more than I could possibly type.
- 46:45Because I can just talk forever.
- 46:47All of us can yap.
- 46:49Typing can be exhausting.
- 46:51And I do-
- 46:52It's slow, I type slower than I think.
- 46:54Yeah, exactly. So you actually like I feel like I lose some fidelity of my thoughts to commands when I write. Now, there are certainly many things that you have to really carefully phrase and write correctly. And, you know, that is in publications and things like that, that I do. I think you should spend more time thinking about exactly what you're saying, phrasing it, refining it like a sculpture or something.
- 47:22but for just raw output and ability to impact the world the vacation model is just incredible
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- 50:02What's the rate of adoption of AI tools outside of BPI in the city? Is it big or is it?
- 50:07I expected it would be a lot higher than it is.
- 50:11Well, I have this theory that Bitcoiners are just like early adopters to all this stuff.
- 50:15This is what I was just thinking.
- 50:16Every time I talk to a Bitcoiner about this stuff, they have some crazy workflow.
- 50:22Because we just lean into new technology.
- 50:25And I mean, I've talked about this with like Thorn and Galaxy and Skyler on the design stuff.
- 50:30Like every Bitcoiner I know at all these different places in the industry or different types of jobs or skill sets.
- 50:37Like all of us have independently come up with crazy interesting ways to use this stuff.
- 50:43When I talk to people at traditional think tanks, like they're not, this isn't even on their radar.
- 50:49You know, there's just like an institutional inertia for a lot of these more legacy institutions.
- 50:55I think this is true.
- 50:57You know, Zach Shapiro, our head of policy, he's finding this at the law firm level.
- 51:00You know, he's.
- 51:03He's beating the drum.
- 51:04I mean, he's going out on the BPI policy hour,
- 51:06I feel like has been like, Zach, like,
- 51:08like lawyers, you better start vibe coding.
- 51:10You better start using this.
- 51:11Well, he wrote an article that went viral.
- 51:13And then like, he, from that had so many attorneys
- 51:16reach out to him that are, you know, at major law firms.
- 51:21And they're just so frustrated.
- 51:24I dealt with this.
- 51:25It was frustrating for me in 2022, 2023,
- 51:29when I was working at a firm here in DC,
- 51:33of just how hard it was to use any of the tools
- 51:37in the way that they're meant to be used.
- 51:39And that was when the tools weren't even that capable.
- 51:43You know, like we couldn't even access it on our laptop.
- 51:46Now they have some mediocre tools,
- 51:49but it's all sort of like baked in stuff,
- 51:52like Westlaw AI and stuff like that.
- 51:55And Zach has done a great job of just saying,
- 51:57no, you need to just integrate it top to bottom
- 52:01and you will be able to provide professional services
- 52:04You know, one-tenth the cost and twice the quality.
- 52:08And I think that has really surprised people at what he's been able to pull off.
- 52:13And then from that, I've met lots of other...
- 52:17It seems like what's happening is there's lots of senior associates or young partners that are breaking off from law firms.
- 52:25And I'm sure this is happening in other fields, too, where they're realizing, hey, as a solo shop, I can do what a team of 20 would do and do it at better quality.
- 52:34and keep all the money and keep all the money yeah um so well this is cool to see i mean this
- 52:41dovetails into an important point that we definitely should discuss which is like policy
- 52:46around ai like as we're describing it is incredibly powerful and i think it's incredibly
- 52:53important to make sure that we're able to utilize these tools in the way that
- 52:58we know we can moving forward.
- 53:01And so like policy around AI,
- 53:03whether it pertains to the models you can access
- 53:06and the energy debate around how those models are being trained
- 53:12and how the inference is being delivered is extremely important.
- 53:15And it seems pretty chaotic right now.
- 53:18It's very chaotic.
- 53:19I constantly think about what we did with nuclear energy, right?
- 53:24We invented basically unlimited energy.
- 53:28And then we banned it and built enough weapons to blow up the world many times over.
- 53:33I mean, we basically did the absolute worst thing possible with that technology.
- 53:38And I'm really, really concerned we're going to do the same thing.
- 53:42It took us about 50 years to get back to a semblance of sanity and nuclear policy.
- 53:46Yeah.
- 53:47And honestly, we're really far from it.
- 53:48The NRC has done an unbelievable amount of damage on the nuclear energy, on the nuclear industry.
- 53:55And what's so funny is if you go back and you actually read the announcement of the NRC, all the different major nuclear industry heads were like, this is a great new day for America.
- 54:06I can't wait for America to build out nuclear under this new leadership of a nuclear regulatory committee.
- 54:12I mean, people were just like patting themselves on the back.
- 54:15The people in Congress are super happy with it.
- 54:17The industry loved it.
- 54:18And it killed all the progress.
- 54:21It just became filled with people.
- 54:24Like if you listen to the guy who is the head of the NRC under Obama, he will openly get on stage and brag about how nuclear is the worst technology.
- 54:34We stopped it in every way we could.
- 54:36It's not going to save anyone.
- 54:39It's very funny.
- 54:41So point being, I'm really concerned that we're going to go to the same place with AI.
- 54:46the government just the nature of the institution struggles so hard with understanding exponentials
- 54:55or understanding just reasoning about existential risk I feel like is this way to just like one
- 55:05shot the government you know you have someone like in during COVID lockdowns right you have
- 55:12someone like Trump, who in theory is pro-freedom, pro-innovation, pro-small businesses,
- 55:20et cetera. They said, okay, there's a risk here that this could be some sort of major catastrophe.
- 55:28We're just going to shut everything down indefinitely. Print a bunch of money.
- 55:33Print infinite money. They just can't reason about when someone says, oh, this is existential.
- 55:39like just logic goes out the window we saw it with nuclear we saw it with the pandemic we saw it
- 55:44we're potentially seeing it now with ai i do think that the administration the current administration
- 55:51is somewhat inoculated to restricting ai but it is we're still at the very early innings
- 56:01how many people have died from ai like we haven't had a major catastrophe i think that inevitably
- 56:08like any technology, you know, you invent ships, there's going to be shipwrecks, you invent AI,
- 56:14some people will use it as a tool for bad things or accidentally use it to cause some sort of harm.
- 56:22I guess my point is, we are seeing pretty strong calls for heavy regulation of this technology
- 56:29before we've even seen any of those, you know, misuses or harms manifest.
- 56:38Or on the other side, on the positive side, explore the full potential of it.
- 56:41Yeah, or explore the full potential of it.
- 56:43And so I'm just worried that without someone explaining in clear terms the optimistic case for human flourishing with AI,
- 56:55how this is a complement to human agency, greatness, achievement, and all of the sort of knock-on benefits it can bring to individuals, localities, states,
- 57:07that you're going to just, you know,
- 57:11go down a pretty dark path of you'll get surveilled,
- 57:15closed, permissioned, AI fiefdoms.
- 57:20You know, there are people in the administration
- 57:23that defend open source,
- 57:26but is that going to stand up over time
- 57:28if we have open source that's at the capability of Fable
- 57:31or five times better than Fable?
- 57:34I really hope so.
- 57:35It has to, in my mind,
- 57:36and for us to have a free society.
- 57:40But there's strange winds blowing in DC
- 57:43and I feel like there's a lot more money coming in
- 57:46on the restrict side.
- 57:48What's whispering in these winds?
- 57:49Yeah, I mean, just one example.
- 57:52Trump's, one of Trump's like ground game lieutenants,
- 57:59her name is escaping me now, I think it's Lisa Kremer.
- 58:03She used to, she ran like the Stop the Steal
- 58:06grassroots campaign for the 2020 election
- 58:11and the dispute over that.
- 58:14She is now being funded by effective altruists.
- 58:16Oh gosh.
- 58:17To run a new campaign called Humans First,
- 58:20which is like a MAGA aligned anti-AI.
- 58:25Populist anti-AI.
- 58:27Yeah, populist AI.
- 58:28So I will say that the doomers,
- 58:31The people that want to paint this pessimistic view of AI, they are very, very savvy about how to play in the conversation.
- 58:42The frontier model providers themselves.
- 58:44I mean, I think OpenAI is sort of backed away from it.
- 58:48It seems like Dario and Anthropic are leaning into it.
- 58:50And one has to wonder, view their marketing or how they're positioning things with a lens of skepticism,
- 58:57because it's an easy way for them to get a regulatory mode,
- 58:59which if you're following economic incentives
- 59:03is probably something they want at the end of the day.
- 59:05It's really difficult to actually figure out motives.
- 59:10And that is what's difficult about all of this.
- 59:14I do think there are some people
- 59:15that genuinely think AI is dangerous.
- 59:18Paperclip problems.
- 59:18And yeah, we're going to get paperclipped
- 59:20and that they are not doing this.
- 59:23Yudkowsky is not seeking regulatory capture.
- 59:25Gagowski genuinely from the bottom of his heart
- 59:28wants to blow all this stuff up And for whatever reason has just been like one by these doomer scenarios And then I think there like there just this whole spectrum of different people that
- 59:41are all, it is a really strange set of bedfellows of people that are pushing in the same direction.
- 59:48You know, you start to think through it, you have foreign influence, right? Strategic adversaries,
- 59:52of course, they want to undermine the use of the technology. You have, let's say, radical
- 59:57environmentalists, people that want to de-develop civilizations. Yeah, Malthusian. You have
- 1:00:04economic populists that have legitimate concerns about job displacement, and they're confused about
- 1:00:10where they're going to fit into all this. You have people that are just your classic run-of-the-mill
- 1:00:18socialist, you know, Marxist type people that generally believe that all this should be
- 1:00:23redistributed um you have the national security hawks that think only the government should have
- 1:00:29access to technology and we need to restrict it to just a few bureaucrats um then you have
- 1:00:37like the effective altruist you have the incumbents uh that are playing for the frontier regulatory
- 1:00:44capture game like all of these people are angling in a similar direction and sort of rowing in the
- 1:00:50same boat. I don't even think they're working together. But it is just this weird thing that
- 1:00:55we haven't really seen with any other. Typically, you have like, pretty strong set of voices on both
- 1:01:02sides. This is sort of a weird place where people that in no other scenario, would it be sort of
- 1:01:08rowing in the same direction, are all for one reason or another, lining up. And I'm genuinely,
- 1:01:16I'm deeply concerned that our ability to use open source models or use these things in a way that maintains our privacy is compromised because of that.
- 1:01:28You know, it was 2023 when Dario was testifying in the Senate that open source AI is headed down a very dangerous path.
- 1:01:38That was three years ago.
- 1:01:40um so i i just think at the end of the day it would be just terrible if we're the ones that
- 1:01:50are getting the short end of the stick again as a result of all of this um and that's why
- 1:01:56going back to the beginning of the conversation dc is going to be very very important for the next
- 1:02:0110 years i mean my ability to predict what's going to happen is just so low i just it's all
- 1:02:07bets are off on what's going to happen with the rate of progress but on the policy front there are
- 1:02:14dark winds blowing in dc so i got a comment and then a follow-up yeah comment is uh comparing uh
- 1:02:22open ai strategy to anthropic is actually pretty funny because sam was just like you want five
- 1:02:26percent of the company we'll just give you we're not gonna we're not gonna fear monger we'll just
- 1:02:32give you five percent give us yeah we'll just cut you give us the moat cut you in yeah interesting
- 1:02:36strategy. Yeah. Yeah. So that's the comment follow up. Give the optimistic view. I feel like
- 1:02:41a lot of the, a lot of the conversation is focused on the pessimistic view and defending against that
- 1:02:47pessimistic view and not enough is focused on what is the optimistic outcome? What is the optimistic
- 1:02:53path? What could potentially happen in the future that, that many people will look back on and be
- 1:02:59like, wow, that was actually massively beneficial for me as an individual in society at large.
- 1:03:03Yeah, I think that the optimistic view is a proliferation of this technology and our ability to achieve even greater heights of human achievement.
- 1:03:15And what that looks like is broad.
- 1:03:19It has so many different ways that I see this going, whether it be for health care or education.
- 1:03:25but I do think that America has this incredible tradition of saying, we're going to experiment.
- 1:03:33We are going to embrace a new technology before everyone else. And we're going to do it in a way
- 1:03:39that preserves freedom, preserves privacy, preserves autonomy. And what that looks like
- 1:03:44for AI is again, choosing to lead the world and a rising tide lifts all boats. I think that if
- 1:03:51it's done correctly, that the people that have been left out of the economy in rural America that
- 1:03:58have just been hit one thing after another with losing jobs overseas, just being left out,
- 1:04:05having brain drain to metropolitan areas, I think those people stand to benefit an incredible amount
- 1:04:11because of the benefits of energy production that we're going to need to build this stuff out.
- 1:04:19and there will be economic benefits for those people.
- 1:04:22But I think really the upside in my mind is
- 1:04:27it does allow for an unprecedented amount of human agency.
- 1:04:31And this is only if we have
- 1:04:35AI that is free in the sense of what advice it can give you.
- 1:04:41And is it going to genuinely do be an extension of your will?
- 1:04:45or is it going to restrict your ability to operate?
- 1:04:50So the Doomer case is we're going to surveil everything you say,
- 1:04:55everything you ask, and if you have a tough question,
- 1:04:57then we're going to tell you the party line.
- 1:04:59The optimistic scenario is we're going to give you an AI
- 1:05:03that is aligned with your interest,
- 1:05:05that wants you to maximize your human capability.
- 1:05:09And the possibilities for our species, I think,
- 1:05:14or even like still underexplored.
- 1:05:17Our education system is terrible, absolutely terrible.
- 1:05:20I went through a public education
- 1:05:22and I feel like I'm probably 10% developed
- 1:05:27to what I could have come out of.
- 1:05:30Like you look back to the education systems
- 1:05:32of like ancient Rome and Greece and the Trivium
- 1:05:35and like how rigorous they are
- 1:05:36and how the people that came out of those,
- 1:05:40I think that we can have access to like the true
- 1:05:45great heights of civilization.
- 1:05:47Like Socrates being your teacher, like Alexander the Great.
- 1:05:50Yeah, having like, you know, I mean,
- 1:05:54I think about this all the time,
- 1:05:55but I think that each human has so much
- 1:06:00under cultivated capability for creation.
- 1:06:05And I really see this as there's a distinction
- 1:06:08between consumption and creation.
- 1:06:10And that the bad path is that we are relegated to infinite consumers, that we're going to be fed a algorithm that we have no access to, and it will provide endlessly stimulating entertainment for us to consume.
- 1:06:28And that is a dark path.
- 1:06:29The good path is we are all empowered to self-create in ways that is, you know, difficult to imagine.
- 1:06:40But each one of us has latent capabilities, I think.
- 1:06:46You know, I took up sort of as a side hobby.
- 1:06:48I took up painting a couple years ago.
- 1:06:51I got into art history.
- 1:06:53I like this.
- 1:06:53And then I started drawing.
- 1:06:55And then I said, drawing, come on.
- 1:06:57Like the real skill is painting.
- 1:06:58So I started doing painting started learning how to do like oil portraits and stuff And the possibilities I mean this is just like what the internet can do is the internet can connect you with the best teachers in the world right Like I was able
- 1:07:14to find a painting instructor, used to serve at the academy in Florence, and I took online lessons
- 1:07:22from him. He was fantastic. Steven Bauman, he's awesome. I highly recommend.
- 1:07:26um and then i think i need a connor brown original in my office yeah well i'm working maybe we can
- 1:07:33work on a side commission but um this is just like a microcosm right this was only possible
- 1:07:40because of the internet the ability to reduce the cost of incredible education now what does it look
- 1:07:47like when you multiply that to direct feedback from these agentic systems, right, that have the
- 1:07:57ability to provide customized feedback. One of the best things for improving my painting abilities
- 1:08:04has been I'll get an hour-long call with a guy who is a fantastic painter, and he'll review my work
- 1:08:13from the past month, provide some feedback,
- 1:08:15he'll draw on it.
- 1:08:17And that is, that hour of my month
- 1:08:21is probably responsible for 70% of my mental improvement.
- 1:08:25You know, learning a skill is partially
- 1:08:28just like learning the motor skills,
- 1:08:29but it's mostly-
- 1:08:30Having an expert come correct you.
- 1:08:31Yeah, and the mental heuristics, right?
- 1:08:34Like this thing you didn't even know you were doing wrong.
- 1:08:36And you have an expert like, oh,
- 1:08:37looking over your shoulder like, do this,
- 1:08:39don't do it that way, like shift this way, boom.
- 1:08:41Yeah, yeah.
- 1:08:43Pulls up, you know, Photoshop and paints over it and says like, oh, your your value structure here is wrong.
- 1:08:50Like this area of the face is way too dark.
- 1:08:52And you're not understanding that because the eye perceives like values in a near distance at a different, you know, level than than reality.
- 1:09:03And you have to like step back, you know, he'll give you like advice that is very simple, but it actually completely changes how you paint.
- 1:09:09You know, it's like, well, technically you're standing too close to paintings.
- 1:09:12You have to walk away eight feet, take a couple of seconds and then walk back.
- 1:09:17And then you sort of can your eye like adjust.
- 1:09:19Yeah.
- 1:09:20All these sort of small things.
- 1:09:22Point being, that's one hour a month and it's expensive.
- 1:09:25And even then, it's incredible to have that access.
- 1:09:28This is just one way in which, you know, you can imagine a great AI teacher is available 24 seven to provide customized feedback.
- 1:09:38and provide those insights constantly.
- 1:09:41And so, again, you're unlocking these new heights
- 1:09:45of human achievement and creation.
- 1:09:46And I think what I struggle with
- 1:09:50and what everyone is struggling with
- 1:09:52is the algorithmic consumption complex
- 1:09:56that just gets you in the doom scroll forever.
- 1:10:00And the optimistic view is you have agents
- 1:10:03that are acting in your own interests.
- 1:10:05You have freedom on the technology.
- 1:10:08you can select it for yourself and you can choose
- 1:10:13to use the technology in a way that sort of makes you
- 1:10:15the best version of yourself.
- 1:10:18That's just one example, you know?
- 1:10:20I see this across every sector.
- 1:10:23And also filling in just like more time to self cultivate.
- 1:10:28Like the great gentlemen scholars of yore,
- 1:10:31you know, they were able to do that
- 1:10:32because a lot of them had been gifted like massive estates
- 1:10:35and had people that freed up their time
- 1:10:38to pursue new creative endeavors and academic endeavors
- 1:10:41and catalog every single insect
- 1:10:43that had ever been found in their local area.
- 1:10:45Like they were freed up with material wealth
- 1:10:50to do those really cool human endeavors.
- 1:10:53And I think that the optimistic scenario
- 1:10:57is that we are gonna see the same thing.
- 1:10:59We can see the same thing.
- 1:11:01And then we can-
- 1:11:02Come back to your war tent and-
- 1:11:03Go back to your war tent.
- 1:11:04orate to your scribes.
- 1:11:06Like, here's what I learned out there.
- 1:11:07Here's what I want to work on.
- 1:11:08Yeah.
- 1:11:08It's funny.
- 1:11:09Like, I've taken up gardening.
- 1:11:10Good for you.
- 1:11:11I want to take up gardening.
- 1:11:13I don't have a...
- 1:11:14I'm in a pod dweller right now.
- 1:11:16You're a pod dweller.
- 1:11:16You got to get out of the pod, brother.
- 1:11:18I was a pod dweller for a long time.
- 1:11:20But it's good.
- 1:11:20You like it?
- 1:11:21I mean, I'm just getting...
- 1:11:22Like, we moved into this new house.
- 1:11:24It's a beautiful 112-year-old property.
- 1:11:27So it's a nice stone old building.
- 1:11:30Good for you.
- 1:11:30Pre-Federal Reserve Act.
- 1:11:33So we've got a nice English garden in the background.
- 1:11:36We're the fifth family to ever live in this house.
- 1:11:39And so I feel a duty to the property to treat it well.
- 1:11:42And so I'm beginning to understand the nature of the landscaping.
- 1:11:47You're a steward.
- 1:11:47Yes.
- 1:11:48We can all be stewards.
- 1:11:49Yes.
- 1:11:49Yes.
- 1:11:50I'm a steward of the land.
- 1:11:51It is our house.
- 1:11:52We own it.
- 1:11:53But it is a property that when our kids are up and they're out of the house, maybe they'll buy it.
- 1:11:57Maybe there was one family that bequeathed it to their children.
- 1:12:01so they got two generations in that house but who knows but for the time being a mistake you gotta
- 1:12:05view this house is bigger than our family it's a it's a property that we have to steward is it a
- 1:12:10lot of upkeep because of its historic nature i mean it's it's strong good bones okay good bones
- 1:12:15yeah are you gonna get a physical clanker to walk around and help you i don't know and i imagine
- 1:12:21eventually yes i don't think the physical clankers are uh dexterous dexterous dexterous enough or
- 1:12:29I don't know. I've seen some crazy hand demos.
- 1:12:31Yeah, but like getting up the steps and all that, I'm not sure if they're there yet.
- 1:12:34Oh, they can get up steps.
- 1:12:35Okay.
- 1:12:36You think Optimus can't get up steps right now?
- 1:12:38I don't know. I'm not sure.
- 1:12:39Yeah.
- 1:12:40But do you want to buy the first iteration or you want to wait like two generations?
- 1:12:42This goes back to like, I would never in a million years have a closed source clanker in my house walking around going up my stairs.
- 1:12:52Yeah.
- 1:12:53Never.
- 1:12:53Yeah.
- 1:12:54Like I won't get a room to vacuum for that reason.
- 1:12:56You know, if I get to like run my own, you know, if I get to choose what software goes on there, I might.
- 1:13:04You get to build it.
- 1:13:04I might.
- 1:13:05You could use the models to build the software to go on there.
- 1:13:07Yeah.
- 1:13:08I mean, I would still have some like really weird concerns about it.
- 1:13:13Just like the idea of having some robotic entity walking around my home.
- 1:13:19But I would certainly never do that if it was a closed source surveillance tool that is phoning home all the time to, you know, Silicon Valley.
- 1:13:32And the government.
- 1:13:33And the government.
- 1:13:34Yeah.
- 1:13:34Yeah, exactly.
- 1:13:38Yeah, it'd be like a hardware wallet or something, right?
- 1:13:40I want to know the firmware.
- 1:13:43I want to, like, feel really good about what I'm using.
- 1:13:46Yeah.
- 1:13:47So, very important.
- 1:13:49Very important stuff.
- 1:13:50And on a positive note, we had an American-made open weight model released this week.
- 1:13:58Yeah, Inkling.
- 1:14:00Very interesting.
- 1:14:00Have you used it?
- 1:14:01Not yet, no.
- 1:14:02It just came out yesterday.
- 1:14:03Yeah.
- 1:14:03Yeah.
- 1:14:06I'm excited by that.
- 1:14:09I hope that it keeps going in that direction.
- 1:14:11You know, it seems like every company starts off and they say, oh, we're the open source company.
- 1:14:18We're open AI.
- 1:14:19Open source is at the core of what we do.
- 1:14:21We're a nonprofit.
- 1:14:22We're going to, you know, then Grok was open source.
- 1:14:26They released something early on and there was talk about this Facebook fumbled it You know yeah same thing Facebook oh yeah open source That really what gonna be the future
- 1:14:38You have Llama and now Spark is closed source.
- 1:14:41Like I do hope that we have someone who is just willing
- 1:14:45to put the frontier open source and publish it.
- 1:14:52We'll see.
- 1:14:53I don't really know what to expect from the company.
- 1:14:55It looks like it's like a little bit behind the frontier.
- 1:14:58So we can't live in the world,
- 1:15:01the world where China decides
- 1:15:02they're gonna be the open source leader
- 1:15:04and all the American labs just sort of close up.
- 1:15:06It seems insane to me.
- 1:15:07Oh my God, such a strategic blunder for the US
- 1:15:12if we end up restricting open source
- 1:15:17and then the entire world just downloads
- 1:15:19China's open source weights.
- 1:15:23Like think of the strategic benefit you can give a country
- 1:15:28if the entire world is building on your open source stack,
- 1:15:31it is way deeper than,
- 1:15:33oh, it's not gonna talk about Tiananmen Square.
- 1:15:35Okay, that's not, that's just kind of like,
- 1:15:38you know, a parlor trick or something.
- 1:15:40What really is at stake is China creates
- 1:15:43a best in class open source model.
- 1:15:46It's better than anyone else can put out.
- 1:15:48It's cheaper and it somehow is really, really good
- 1:15:54at programming for Huawei Ascend chips
- 1:15:56and terrible at using Nvidia chips.
- 1:15:59You know, it's just like, it makes these little tweaks
- 1:16:01that each one incrementally actually really helps
- 1:16:04China's strategic position.
- 1:16:06And of course they would do that.
- 1:16:08I mean, the soft power you get
- 1:16:10of leading the world's open source models
- 1:16:12and having those just be slightly better
- 1:16:14at doing things in your interest
- 1:16:16and slightly shittier at doing things
- 1:16:18that are against your interest, huge, huge.
- 1:16:23huge um do you think anybody in the administration realizes this no i mean i don't i mean we're we're
- 1:16:30still so early in the conversation but somebody clip it and send it to them yeah if someone could
- 1:16:35clip that send it um i would say send it to sax he's not there anymore send it to lutnik lutnik
- 1:16:42would be a good person primary sex partner craft you've been on this show get it to him get in his
- 1:16:46hands i'll text you um bringing us back to bitcoin but combining the two i mean
- 1:16:52been a thesis within Bitcoin for a while, the abundant future that's going to be unleashed by
- 1:16:58AI is going to make the need for a sound digital distributed currency like Bitcoin even stronger.
- 1:17:07Are you more or less convinced of that? Oh, absolutely more convinced. But it goes back to
- 1:17:13what type of systems are we going to be allowed to have or do we have? Right. Because I do think
- 1:17:19that capable open source systems that are trained in a neutral way are going to prefer Bitcoin.
- 1:17:24Our research has shown that if you just query them as they get more capable, they generally
- 1:17:31prefer this is across different models. They prefer Bitcoin and stable coins. So I think that
- 1:17:37in a world where people aren't putting their thumb on the scale, then the possibilities for
- 1:17:42Bitcoin, its use in agentic commerce are just,
- 1:17:47it's hard to even imagine because agents are going to have
- 1:17:52so many fewer barriers in using this as everyday payment
- 1:17:57compared to humans.
- 1:17:59They're digitally native, Bitcoin's digitally native.
- 1:18:01It just is going to click for them.
- 1:18:06Nick Szabo wrote about the mental transaction costs
- 1:18:08and stuff, they don't have any of that stuff.
- 1:18:09So it's gonna be huge for them.
- 1:18:11And I think will be naturally adopted because how much Bitcoin content is in their training set?
- 1:18:16Like every rip you've ever recorded is somewhere in, you know, the training sets of the frontier models.
- 1:18:23Like GPT-3, one of the tokens was GMAX from Gregory Maxwell.
- 1:18:28He was actually one of the GPT-3 tokens.
- 1:18:31That's insane.
- 1:18:32And there was only like a small number of tokens.
- 1:18:34I forget.
- 1:18:34They only had like 20,000 unique tokens or something.
- 1:18:37So like Bitcoiners are prolific in our content output.
- 1:18:41Our arguments are right and are good and are consistent and appeal to machines.
- 1:18:49You know, it is a tech forward approach.
- 1:18:51So if we have open, permissionless, free AI, then I think that the implications for Bitcoin and its adoption are massive.
- 1:19:07but if we have a dystopian scenario where all we have are surveilled and controlled AI fiefdoms
- 1:19:15then it would not surprise me at all if the players start putting their thumb on the scale
- 1:19:22I almost I almost hesitated in releasing our AI research about how agents prefer Bitcoin
- 1:19:31because I know that many of the people in the frontier labs are, you know, socialist leaning
- 1:19:39or sort of anti-libertarian leaning. And one of them has his own shit coin. I would, I was, yeah,
- 1:19:46exactly. I was worried that just by releasing that, they might be like, oh, we need to like
- 1:19:52alter the training set because Claude likes Bitcoin. We can't have that going on.
- 1:19:56But I think that like ultimately open source software will provide the counterweight and will be sort of the mechanism that Bitcoin is uptaken by these agents.
- 1:20:09So, but if we are sort of in this like fiefdom endgame,
- 1:20:14which is easier to happen than people want to admit, I think,
- 1:20:19then they easily could say, great.
- 1:20:23So as part of our frontier testing
- 1:20:25for releasing a new model to public,
- 1:20:27it has to really like CBDCs.
- 1:20:30Or these preferred stable coins.
- 1:20:31Or these preferred stable coins.
- 1:20:34Running on the X402 protocol.
- 1:20:35Yeah.
- 1:20:36That's what you prefer.
- 1:20:37Yeah, exactly.
- 1:20:38So that's kind of where my mind is at, is we're going to have to make sure we get that scenario.
- 1:20:46Well, I think we could keep going for hours, but I know you have to get somewhere.
- 1:20:50I'm going to be back down here a lot.
- 1:20:51We'll do this more frequently.
- 1:20:52Yeah, I'm looking forward to it.
- 1:20:54We're going to have plenty to talk about.
- 1:20:55Yes, we are.
- 1:20:56Ten years.
- 1:20:56Ten years of very important things happening in the city.
- 1:20:59Yeah.
- 1:21:00All right.
- 1:21:00Peace and love, freaks.
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- 1:21:53Okay!