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Trump Vows to Crush Electric Car Industry: Will It Backfire? · Elon Musk Podcast

• 0:01
  Hey everybody, welcome back to the Elon Musk Podcast.
• 0:05
  This is a show where we discuss the critical crossroads, the
• 0:08
  Shape, SpaceX, Tesla X, The Boring Company, and Neuralink.
• 0:13
  I'm your host, Will Walden. Former President Donald J Trump,
• 0:17
  who is currently facing 34 felony counts, has announced
• 0:21
  plans to halt electric vehicle sales if he wins the upcoming
• 0:26
  election, including Tesla's. He is rallying the oil and gas
• 0:30
  industries for financial backing in exchange for reversing the
• 0:33
  Biden administration's climate policies, including rolling back
• 0:36
  emissions targets and slashing EV tax credits.
• 0:40
  These proposals may not sit well with even Republican voters
• 0:44
  given the job growth and investments linked to EV
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  production, especially in southern States.
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  And since Trump first took office in 2016, the EV market
• 0:52
  has seen significant growth. In 2016, only around 159,000
• 0:57
  electric vehicles were sold in the USA, figure projected to
• 1:01
  surpass 1.5 million in 2024. And despite Trump's opposition,
• 1:07
  the market might have reached a growth point where it could
• 1:09
  continue without substantial federal support.
• 1:12
  Now, analysts believe the transition to E VS will persist,
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  albeit possibly at a slower rate, if Trump's policies are
• 1:18
  implemented. William Clay Ford Junior, who is
• 1:22
  the executive chair of Ford Motor, emphasized the challenge
• 1:26
  of adapting to fluctuating political landscapes.
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  He said. Our time frame as a company, our
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  planning time frame, is a lot longer than election cycles.
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  He said this to the Detroit Free Press.
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  And investments in US manufacturing spurred by the
• 1:40
  Inflation Reduction Act, or the IRA, are set to continue
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  regardless of a potential second term for Trump.
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  For instance, Hyundai is investing $13 billion in EV
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  production in Georgia, state Trump narrowly lost in 2020.
• 1:53
  And by targeting policies that support these investments, Trump
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  risks undermining his support in states reliant on manufacturing
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  jobs. Now, the EV market has seen
• 2:03
  substantial investments from automakers, charging companies
• 2:06
  and dealership networks, making it unlikely that Trump could
• 2:09
  entirely halt his momentum. States like Texas and Florida,
• 2:13
  traditional Republican strongholds, have seen
• 2:15
  increasing EV adoption, second only to California in
• 2:18
  registrations. Now, this bipartisan consumer
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  base suggests that Trump's hardline stance might alienate a
• 2:25
  significant portion of the electorate.
• 2:28
  And Trump's vocal dissidane for electric vehicles is clear.
• 2:32
  He has falsely claimed they are inefficient and pledged to
• 2:34
  dismantle Biden's supportive policies.
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  Trump has proposed a 100% tariff on E VS imported from Mexico if
• 2:42
  he regains the presidency, stating you're not going to be
• 2:45
  able to sell those cars. Despite Trump's potential
• 2:49
  actions, analysts argue that the market's growth trajectory might
• 2:52
  continue independently. A record 1.2 million Americans
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  bought E VS last year, representing 7.6% of new car
• 3:00
  sales. This number is expected to rise
• 3:02
  10% this year, indicating a tipping point toward widespread
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  adoption. While a Trump presidency could
• 3:07
  slow the EV transition, it's unlikely to stop it entirely.
• 3:12
  The Biden administration's aggressive climate policies,
• 3:15
  including a significant Environmental Protection Agency
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  rule and substantial tax incentives, have been pivotal in
• 3:21
  driving EV adoption. Effort aims to make over 50% of
• 3:26
  new passenger vehicles all electric by 2032.
• 3:31
  Margot Ogg, a former head of EPA transportation emissions
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  program, said if Trump is elected, we absolutely will not
• 3:38
  reach Biden's target. This is important.
• 3:41
  If you can't get more EVs on the road, you can't do better for
• 3:47
  the world and for the economy. So I don't know why Trump is
• 3:50
  going to try to stop EVs. I, I don't understand that.
• 3:54
  It's all politics, as we all know.
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  And Trump's dismissal of scientific evidence on climate
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  change and his courting of the fossil fuel industry, it's all
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  well documented. He's urged industry executives
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  to contribute a billion dollars to his campaign promising to
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  reverse Biden's climate policies if re elected.
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  Now there's a little problem here because some of these
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  fossil fuel companies are transitioning to offering more
• 4:19
  EV tech in the future. BP British Petroleum, as it used
• 4:24
  to be called, is transitioning to EV chargers.
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  They're making a whole charge for EV chargers.
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  So the whole industry of fossil fuels is changing with the
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  times, and so should everybody else, in my opinion.
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  I mean, if you're a fan of Tesla, you should not be a fan
• 4:44
  of what Trump is doing. And a second Trump
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  administration could impact the EV market, though.
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  And it could rollback emissions regulations in altering tax
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  credit rules that Biden set up. And if Republicans gain control
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  of Congress, too, they might work to repeal parts of the
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  Inflation Reduction Act, which has provided substantial support
• 5:02
  for clean energy and EV manufacturing.
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  And despite these potential challenges, some automakers may
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  continue their EV initiatives. Analysts say that EV sales will
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  persist, the company's continuing to build charging
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  infrastructure and other supply chain components.
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  And also the industry might lobby the politicians to
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  maintain favorable policies. So historically, automakers have
• 5:28
  resisted stringent emissions controls.
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  However, given the current investment in EV tech and
• 5:33
  infrastructure, sudden policy reversal could harm the whole
• 5:37
  industry. The automotive sector has
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  significantly evolved since 2017 with substantial investments in
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  EV productions, and automakers like Ford have publicly opposed
• 5:48
  policy changes that disrupt long term planning.
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  I mean, they plan decades into the future.
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  And Ford has intervened in lawsuits supporting EPA
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  regulations against Republican efforts to block emission limits
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  now, William Clay Ford Junior said.
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  Our time frame as a company, our planning time frame is a lot
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  longer than election cycles. Remember that.
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  And other automakers might seek to negotiate slower
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  implementation of emissions regulations rather than their
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  complete removal. The Republican controlled
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  Congress stance on rescinding EV tax credits remains uncertain.
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  Right now. There's benefits from these
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  credits that bring business to Georgia, South Carolina and Ohio
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  and other states. And Hyundai's significant
• 6:30
  investment in Georgia, $13 billion for EV and battery
• 6:35
  plants. It shows that the scale is
• 6:38
  improving and everything's getting bigger.
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  It underscores the ongoing industrial shift, which might be
• 6:43
  resilient against politicians now, should Trump attempt to
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  limit tax credits through Treasury regulations,
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  particularly targeting materials like Chinese graphite, The EV
• 6:54
  industry might only face temporary setbacks, but could
• 6:58
  probably drive the price up a little bit.
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  Companies are also planning domestic graphite processing and
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  alternatives, suggesting that the market's growth may continue
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  through all of this. And federal tax credits have
• 7:12
  played a crucial role in making EVs more affordable for
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  everybody. Because not everybody can go out
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  and buy a $50,000 car that's a huge down payment for a house
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  and make it affordable with these tax credits.
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  And while Trump presidency might slow sales, it wouldn't destroy
• 7:30
  the whole market. EVs are here to stay, Tesla's
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  here to stay, and the $4000 tax credit has been instrumental in
• 7:36
  reducing costs for customers. Now the 29 or 2021 bipartisan
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  infrastructure laws allocation of $7.5 billion for e.g.
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  EV charging stations could be at risk if Trump works with
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  Congress to rescind it. However, private investments in
• 7:53
  state funds have often outpaced federal programs.
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  Tesla's going to continue building their charger
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  infrastructure. And Sarah Raphaelson of EV GOAT
• 8:03
  said increasing demand for EV charges in Republican LED states
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  indicate a growing market beyond federal influence.
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  The trend suggests that EV adoption could persist even with
• 8:14
  potential political setbacks. Now, Republican strategist Mike
• 8:19
  Murphy and the founder of the EV Politics Project pointed out
• 8:24
  that some Republican insiders quietly support EVs.
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  Of course, because we all know that politicians are a little
• 8:30
  bit underhanded sometimes, and they don't always tell the
• 8:33
  truth. They do little white lies.
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  He said there will be sober, quiet voices even in Trump land
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  that will push back. And the nice thing about Trump
• 8:41
  is that he can always change. He's totally transactional at
• 8:46
  possible shifts in Trump's stance based on practical
• 8:49
  considerations. So if basically, if Trump can't
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  get the money from the oil companies, the big oil
• 8:56
  companies, and the market is changing and everybody's pushing
• 9:00
  against him, he may change his mind.
• 9:02
  And that would be a good thing for all EV owners and Tesla
• 9:06
  fans. And there's ongoing investment
• 9:08
  in the EV market right now, particularly in states with
• 9:12
  Republican leadership. And it's gonna be complex
• 9:15
  dynamics if Trump returns to office, the market's evolution
• 9:20
  driven by substantial private and state investments,
• 9:22
  suggesting resilience that could withstand any Trump or federal
• 9:28
  policy changes. Hey, thank you so much for
• 9:37
  listening today. I really do appreciate your
• 9:39
  support. If you could take a second and
• 9:41
  hit the subscribe or the follow button on whatever podcast
• 9:44
  platform that you're listening on right now, I greatly
• 9:47
  appreciate it. It helps out the show
• 9:48
  tremendously and you'll never miss an episode.
• 9:51
  And each episode is about 10 minutes or less to get you
• 9:55
  caught up quickly. And please, if you want to
• 9:57
  support the show even more, go to patreon.com/stage Zero.
• 10:03
  And please take care of yourselves and each other.
• 10:05
  And I'll see you tomorrow.