Latest / The Tailgate Cam Podcast / Nate Smith joins the Tailgate to Preview NFL Week 1 Games and Offer up our Tail the Tailgate Picks
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_01: On this episode of the Tailgate podcast, we are proud to announce our new sponsor, Death Charts, the most innovative site to track player movements, ratings, where those NFL players stack up on their own teams.
- 0:14SPEAKER_01: And they also have some pretty awesome custom team merch.
- 0:18SPEAKER_01: I like to think of it as PFF meeting our lads, but with a little bit more depth.
- 0:23SPEAKER_01: Check them out at death charts.com or depth underscore charts on Twitter and Instagram.
- 0:55SPEAKER_01: What is up, Tailgators?
- 0:57SPEAKER_01: It's your host, Cameron Clark, and I am back here again for another episode of the Tailgate Camp Podcast.
- 1:06SPEAKER_01: We have a jam-packed show today full of NFL picks, NFL tail, the tailgate segment with my good friend Nate Smith.
- 1:16SPEAKER_01: But first, a few headlines.
- 1:18SPEAKER_01: Obviously, the college football week one reaction show was posted earlier this week.
- 1:24SPEAKER_01: And one game we were not able to get to is Florida State in SMU.
- 1:29SPEAKER_01: And it is time to address that game because boy was it a doozy.
- 1:34SPEAKER_01: So, first and foremost, the fact that Florida State was unable to start the game on time.
- 1:41SPEAKER_01: The kick was originally scheduled for 7:30 Eastern time, and that was delayed until about 9.15.
- 1:47SPEAKER_01: So it started about two hours later than it was originally scheduled.
- 1:52SPEAKER_01: That was due to uh a power issue within the stadium.
- 1:56SPEAKER_01: Uh, some people speculated that that could have been due to an explosion with a transformer outside of the stadium.
- 2:03SPEAKER_01: Regardless, there was no power in the stadium, and the game started about two hours after it was supposed to.
- 2:10SPEAKER_01: And if that wasn't the most tall tail sign of things to come for Florida State, I don't know what else would be.
- 2:17SPEAKER_01: They were pretty much in this game back and forth.
- 2:22SPEAKER_01: Um, at one point, SMU uh stretched their lead out.
- 2:27SPEAKER_01: I think at most at one point they were up uh by seven, I think was their largest lead.
- 2:33SPEAKER_01: They were up 14 to 7, and then they got out again at halftime 17 to 10 uh before stretching the lead out again in the fourth quarter, um, only to see FSU tie the game.
- 2:45SPEAKER_01: Like there was some resiliency there.
- 2:47SPEAKER_01: Um, Usman Kroma was an incredible night for him.
- 2:53SPEAKER_01: He uh ran for over 116 yards.
- 2:56SPEAKER_01: He had a touchdown, he had a 54-yard run in the first quarter, but the story of the game was FSU's inability to capitalize on SMU's many, many mistakes.
- 3:09SPEAKER_01: SMU, um, while Kevin Jennings had a I would say probably the strangest 430-yard game I've ever seen.
- 3:18SPEAKER_01: Because if you watch the game with no stats anywhere being shown to you, there was no way that I would have thought that Kevin Jennings had 430 yards.
- 3:28SPEAKER_01: But he had 430 yards, he threw two interceptions, one of them was brutal in the red zone.
- 3:35SPEAKER_01: Um actually coming down with it.
- 3:38SPEAKER_01: Um, Nehemiah Chandler brought that down in the in the end zone and returned it out.
- 3:43SPEAKER_01: But ultimately, SMU had four turnovers in this game.
- 3:47SPEAKER_01: They also missed a field goal, and they were just leaving points on the board left and right.
- 3:55SPEAKER_01: They were able to run the ball pretty well.
- 3:57SPEAKER_01: Um, they averaged five yards a carry.
- 3:59SPEAKER_01: I already mentioned that Kevin Jennings had 430 yards passing in this game, but ultimately FSU was not able to capitalize.
- 4:07SPEAKER_01: They were just two of 15 on third down attempts.
- 4:12SPEAKER_01: They only had three penalties compared to our SMU's six penalties for 47 yards.
- 4:18SPEAKER_01: They were out gained 585 yards to 324.
- 4:24SPEAKER_01: And honestly, this was just a story of a team that did not have the horses to match SMU.
- 4:30SPEAKER_01: It was not well enough coached with by Mike Norvell and his group to be able to catch up and take advantage of these mistakes that SMU made.
- 4:40SPEAKER_01: And it if you're an S uh FSU fan, you have to be completely deflated because this was a golden opportunity from a ranked ACC team that they were trying to hand you a game on a silver platter, and FSU was unable to take advantage of that.
- 4:59SPEAKER_01: So, with that, FSU drops to one-on-one on the season, 0-1 in the ACC, and SMU wins their first game, and then they have a much easier game ahead against Charlotte.
- 5:10SPEAKER_01: Florida State, on the other hand, has a bye week, and then they get ready to play at Alabama.
- 5:16SPEAKER_01: So things don't get much easier for Florida State.
- 5:19SPEAKER_01: Um, some other news, Aaron Judge is back.
- 5:22SPEAKER_01: The MVP, the two-time running AL MVP, came back on Tuesday night, September the 8th, and actually kind of crazy.
- 5:32SPEAKER_01: He missed 99 days on the injured list.
- 5:37SPEAKER_01: And for those that don't know, Aaron Judge, the MVP, wears number 99, and he is back.
- 5:42SPEAKER_01: He is making a start Tuesday night in the Yankees lineup.
- 5:47SPEAKER_01: And then the last thing that I'm gonna get to before we get into our NFL week one picks and tail the tailgate segment, is UFC Noche is this Saturday.
- 5:58SPEAKER_01: Um, 5 p.m.
- 5:59SPEAKER_01: Eastern time is when that is scheduled to start on the undercard.
- 6:03SPEAKER_01: Um, UFC Noche, as I talked about a few episodes ago with my good friend Pedro, is an annual event that UFC has done the last several years highlighting um Latin American-born fighters, a lot of Mexican-born fighters, um, but all all over um Latin America, Brazil, uh, Mexico.
- 6:24SPEAKER_01: Um, we we have a really good card ahead of us.
- 6:28SPEAKER_01: Gene Silva and Jose Miguel Delgado are the main event.
- 6:32SPEAKER_01: Brandon Moreno in the flyweight division is in the co-main event against Joseph Morales.
- 6:39SPEAKER_01: Um, some other fights that we get Tommy McMillan, uh Manon Faro against Alexa Grasso, Curtis Blades is fighting Waldo Cortez Acasta, and Dan Ige, uh, while be it a mighty underdog against David Martinez, is also fighting on this card.
- 6:56SPEAKER_01: Um, Ignacio Bajamunde's um Dracar Close.
- 7:01SPEAKER_01: I mean, there is some really, really good names on this fight card.
- 7:05SPEAKER_01: JJ Aldrich is the the first fight against Regina Terran.
- 7:10SPEAKER_01: Ultimately, be all this to be said, this UFC Noche card looks tremendous.
- 7:16SPEAKER_01: 5 p.m.
- 7:16SPEAKER_01: Eastern on Paramount Plus on Saturday, right in the middle of college football.
- 7:21SPEAKER_01: So if you don't have anything else to watch on Saturday, there's one more thing for you to watch.
- 7:26SPEAKER_01: So now coming up, my good friend Nate Smith will be joining the tailgate, and we will preview all of the games for week one.
- 7:37SPEAKER_01: We will pick winners in every game, and then we will actually go through and give our best bets for the week uh in the form of the tail, the tailgate segment that we've been doing already for college football.
- 7:49SPEAKER_01: But this is our first crack at it for the NFL, so stick around.
- 8:13SPEAKER_00: What's going on, Cam?
- 8:14SPEAKER_00: It's good to be here.
- 8:15SPEAKER_00: I know that I was not your first repeat guest, but I'm I'm happy to come in right behind our boyfriend.
- 8:21SPEAKER_00: But I'm glad to be back here.
- 8:22SPEAKER_01: You and Brandon have developed a rivalry at like two ships passing in the night in the tailgate.
- 8:28SPEAKER_01: So we just gotta keep it going, I guess.
- 8:31SPEAKER_00: Once we realize we're rivals on, you know, he's a cubs fan, right?
- 8:34SPEAKER_00: Cardinals cubs.
- 8:35SPEAKER_00: I was like, what else can what else can we do rivals at, you know?
- 8:37SPEAKER_01: He's also a Blackhawks fan.
- 8:39SPEAKER_00: Exactly.
- 8:40SPEAKER_00: There we go.
- 8:40SPEAKER_00: We can look at friendly disagreements.
- 8:43SPEAKER_01: Exactly.
- 8:44SPEAKER_01: Uh well, we got a lot of games to talk about.
- 8:48SPEAKER_01: Uh full slate for NFL week one.
- 8:51SPEAKER_01: Before we even start getting into any games, are there any games besides the Rams game that you are very excited to see?
- 8:59SPEAKER_00: Yeah, definitely.
- 9:00SPEAKER_00: Um, it was hard for me to choose between the two.
- 9:03SPEAKER_00: I actually went with um Saints and Lions.
- 9:06SPEAKER_00: I think that could be a really interesting offensive game.
- 9:08SPEAKER_00: I'm excited to kind of get into that matchup and you know, just see see maybe some hidden gems we might be able to find.
- 9:14SPEAKER_01: Nice.
- 9:14SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that should be a really good game.
- 9:16SPEAKER_01: I obviously am kind of glued to my Saints opinion for the season, so I don't think that that means they're gonna win week one, but I am excited to see those two teams, at least on offense, match up with each other.
- 9:30SPEAKER_01: Should be a pretty fun game.
- 9:32SPEAKER_01: Uh, but we start with a really fun game tomorrow night, or I guess by the time this episode comes out, tonight, uh the first game of the season, a rematch of last year's Super Bowl.
- 9:45SPEAKER_01: The Patriots travel out to Seattle to play the defending Super Bowl champs.
- 9:51SPEAKER_01: Uh, it it has been confirmed that Travion Henderson will not play in this game.
- 9:56SPEAKER_01: And it also seems unlikely, it still could change before game time, but um, star defensive lineman Christian Barmore also seems unlikely to give it a go for the Patriots.
- 10:08SPEAKER_01: Um, but obviously, this is the Seahawks' first game defending their Super Bowl at home.
- 10:13SPEAKER_01: Um any immediate thoughts before we get into some of like the actual X's and O's here?
- 10:19SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think what the NFL does with having the Super Bowl rematch to open up the next season, I think is really great for the game.
- 10:25SPEAKER_00: Um, not only for the teams to get that revenge factor, but I think it's it's what the fans want to see.
- 10:29SPEAKER_00: It's a great way to kick off the season.
- 10:31SPEAKER_01: Yeah, absolutely.
- 10:33SPEAKER_01: The two biggest stars, one of them actually just got paid this week, uh, Christian Gonzalez and last year's number one receiver in the entire NFL, Jackson Smith and Jigba, uh, they will be putting on quite a show tomorrow night.
- 10:48SPEAKER_01: And the last time that they matched up in the Super Bowl, Gonzalez got the better hand of JSN.
- 10:54SPEAKER_01: He held him to four catches for 27 yards.
- 10:57SPEAKER_01: Uh, do you think that JSN gets his lick back, so to speak, or do you think Christian Gonzalez keeps him in check again?
- 11:06SPEAKER_00: Somewhere in the middle, but I do expect JSN to have his production hike back up.
- 11:10SPEAKER_00: I think when you have that two-week uh preparation time through the Patriots last Super Bowl, it's really honing in on that exact part of the game plan that you want to sort of take away.
- 11:18SPEAKER_00: Um, not that that makes it easy, but it's more approachable, more digestible as a defense to implement that.
- 11:23SPEAKER_00: Um whereas we've got a blank slate to start this season.
- 11:26SPEAKER_00: I think JSN's probably hungry to get that lake back.
- 11:29SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I I totally agree.
- 11:31SPEAKER_01: Um, I also failed to mention Seattle is favored on the line in this game by three and a half points.
- 11:37SPEAKER_01: Uh the over-under is set at 44 and a half.
- 11:40SPEAKER_01: So who do you have winning this game?
- 11:43SPEAKER_01: The first game of the season.
- 11:44SPEAKER_01: Gotta start off on the right foot with our pick.
- 11:46SPEAKER_01: So who do you have winning?
- 11:49SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so I I do have the Patriots winning.
- 11:52SPEAKER_00: Um and I can't lie, I don't have a huge X no breakdown on that one.
- 11:56SPEAKER_00: I just I really think that uh, you know, the motivation of revenge, however you want to frame it, I think that's a real piece.
- 12:01SPEAKER_00: Um and on the flip side, I think the Super Bowl hangover is a real piece.
- 12:04SPEAKER_00: That's not even to say anything specifically about Seattle.
- 12:07SPEAKER_00: I just think in general, you know, you're coming out, you're getting like the ring ceremony, the fans welcome you back.
- 12:12SPEAKER_00: It's kind of a you know, a happy, you know, happy tears moment.
- 12:16SPEAKER_00: Um whereas the Patriots are sitting there on that other sideline with their blood boiling as they're watching that.
- 12:20SPEAKER_00: We see this play out in the first quarter of a lot of like NBA games.
- 12:23SPEAKER_00: Um not the same, obviously, but football being a very physical sport, I think that the Patriots will really be riled up, ready to make some hard hits and then play their best.
- 12:32SPEAKER_01: Yeah, these are two teams that I actually think what as I've gone through the divisions this year, I think that both of them are slated to win less games than they did last year.
- 12:43SPEAKER_01: I think there's just some natural regression that's gonna come for both of these teams.
- 12:47SPEAKER_01: Um, more so for the Seahawks, and I think really on the Patriots side.
- 12:51SPEAKER_01: That being said, I do think this is one of the the opportunities when we see this, you know, the opening game with the defending Super Bowl champion, where I think they are kind of poised to actually take advantage of this opportunity.
- 13:07SPEAKER_01: It's an earlier week matchup than normal.
- 13:10SPEAKER_01: They're playing obviously on a Wednesday night.
- 13:12SPEAKER_01: Um, and I think that the way that Seattle is able to match up physically, um, especially on the defensive line against New England's offensive line, which New England's offensive line should be improved from last year.
- 13:24SPEAKER_01: They drafted another offensive tackle in the first round, Caleb Lomo.
- 13:28SPEAKER_01: Uh, but that still being the case, Seattle still has a lot of hungry dogs on that defensive line, and this is their opportunity to you know prove to people that they are rightfully the defending champions.
- 13:41SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna go with Seattle here.
- 13:43SPEAKER_01: Um, not very confident, uh honestly.
- 13:47SPEAKER_01: Um, I actually kind of went back and forth on this a few times, but I do think Seattle um holds a few advantages specifically here.
- 13:55SPEAKER_01: Um, but I do have a Patriots prop tucked away for our tail-the-tail gate later.
- 14:00SPEAKER_01: So we'll get to that here later on.
- 14:03SPEAKER_01: Um, but let's move on to Thursday night, down under an Australia night.
- 14:08SPEAKER_01: Uh, your Rams taking on their hated division rivals, the 49ers.
- 14:15SPEAKER_01: I don't know if Jed York will be in attendance.
- 14:18SPEAKER_01: Uh, I don't know if there's any trailer parks hanging around Melbourne, Australia.
- 14:22SPEAKER_01: Uh, it's that's still to be seen.
- 14:25SPEAKER_01: Kyle Shanahan uh is probably the most injured right now of all the 49ers, which I think is saying a lot.
- 14:33SPEAKER_01: Uh, I saw the interview that he gave.
- 14:35SPEAKER_01: I I guess in Australia it was on Sunday, but here it was on Monday.
- 14:40SPEAKER_01: And he was trying to explain.
- 14:42SPEAKER_01: I don't know if you saw this, but he was trying to explain like what day it was in America while he was talking in Australia, and it broke my brain.
- 14:50SPEAKER_01: I was like, hey man, maybe you need to go back to the hospital and get checked out.
- 14:55SPEAKER_01: I don't know what was going on there.
- 14:57SPEAKER_01: Uh, the Rams come into this game minus three and a half, the over-underset at 48 and a half.
- 15:03SPEAKER_01: It does seem like Mike Evans, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle are all trending towards being able to play for week one.
- 15:10SPEAKER_01: Um, the big and exciting thing here for the Rams, first game with Miles Garrett, first game with both of their new corners.
- 15:18SPEAKER_01: Um, what is your immediate uh, you know, first impressions when you look at this matchup between the Rams and the 49ers?
- 15:26SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so obviously we've heard all offseason about the big Miles Garrett move.
- 15:30SPEAKER_00: Um, one specific thing I want to highlight there, um, and I know you and I kind of talked about it looking at our notes coming in, um, specifically the matchup versus Trent Williams, that was something where um, you know, Trent Williams is obviously elite, right?
- 15:45SPEAKER_00: One of the very, very, very few times and rare times where he is outmatched, in my opinion, is versus Miles Garrett.
- 15:50SPEAKER_00: And then one of the few times on the flip side that Jared versus last year is completely physically overmatched, is versus Trent Williams.
- 15:57SPEAKER_00: So I think the Rams, um, not that that was the sole purpose of the trade, but that certainly helped um as far as a reason for them to pull the trigger.
- 16:04SPEAKER_00: Knowing that you're going up against an elite future Hall of Famer and Trent Williams two, maybe three times a year.
- 16:09SPEAKER_00: Um, I think this is the perfect opportunity on prime time for the fans to get to see that matchup right away.
- 16:15SPEAKER_00: We don't have to wait till week eight or something like that.
- 16:17SPEAKER_00: We'll see it right away.
- 16:18SPEAKER_00: Um, and it's something that I know the broadcast is going to zoom in on, something that can completely affect the game on both sides.
- 16:24SPEAKER_00: So um, there's a lot of things I'm looking forward to in this game, but for me it starts in the trenches.
- 16:28SPEAKER_01: Yeah, absolutely.
- 16:29SPEAKER_01: I I think we both share the excitement for seeing really what kind of step Miles Garrett allows the Rams to take.
- 16:36SPEAKER_01: I mean, obviously, there's other moves that they made, Trent McDuffie, Jalen Watson.
- 16:40SPEAKER_01: Um, we haven't even mentioned the fact that they officially signed Aaron Donald last week, uh, but he will not play in this game.
- 16:47SPEAKER_01: Hopefully, he will be playing in week two.
- 16:50SPEAKER_01: Um, he's still getting up to speed and acclimated, but you know, with all of these new additions to the defense, I'm really interested to see what kind of impact Miles Garrett creates uh both in the trenches and really like for the past defense as a whole.
- 17:06SPEAKER_01: Um, so really from the 49ers perspective, is there anybody that you think can still that you would lean towards taking advantage of from a DFS position before we get to the Rams side?
- 17:19SPEAKER_00: From a DFS standpoint, um now are we talking single game or we're talking like full slate?
- 17:25SPEAKER_00: Yeah, single game for Thursday night.
- 17:27SPEAKER_00: Okay.
- 17:27SPEAKER_00: So single game, I think that um and you know he the buzz is the buzz in the hype is kind of rising, so we'll see.
- 17:33SPEAKER_00: But I think if we can still get Terrence Ferguson um as you know, a less popular play, maybe maybe people aren't quite aware yet of the role he's actually gonna have.
- 17:42SPEAKER_00: Um I think that he's somebody who you know might even be able to put a guy like that in your captain spot if you're looking at DraftKings, maybe have a little bit more money to get some of the other true stars in your lineup, your Puka's, your Devantes, you know, Staffords, um, bring it back with a 49ers player like Kittle or Evans.
- 17:59SPEAKER_00: I think transverse and whether you put him at Captain or otherwise, I think is someone I want to get in my lineups.
- 18:04SPEAKER_01: One guy that I have kind of been poking around at, just looking at um in terms of building a Thursday night lineup, is DeJan Stribling.
- 18:13SPEAKER_01: I know that Stribling's hype has kind of been escalating slowly, slowly.
- 18:18SPEAKER_01: Obviously, it helps that Ricky Pearsall is out for the season, Christian Kirk is out for at least the first four games, and the 49ers were relying on signing somebody like Debo Samuel to come in and fill a void in their wide receiver room.
- 18:32SPEAKER_01: So I could see I like the Ferguson call.
- 18:35SPEAKER_01: I could also see Stribling making a kind of an under-the-radar impact that isn't one of the bigger names.
- 18:41SPEAKER_01: But ultimately, who do you think wins this game?
- 18:47SPEAKER_00: Ultimately, I do have the Rams winning here.
- 18:49SPEAKER_00: Um obviously a little bit of bias for me, right?
- 18:52SPEAKER_00: Huge Rams fan, but um from a tactical standpoint, you know, not only Miles Garrett matchup that you touched on the secondary editions, um, and anytime you've got Matthew Stafford at the home, reigning MVP.
- 19:03SPEAKER_00: I'm pretty confident in the Rams heading into this game.
- 19:06SPEAKER_00: Um one thing I think is a lot of people will talk about is the travel difference.
- 19:10SPEAKER_00: The Niners go over, you know, what whatever it was, five, six days in advance.
- 19:13SPEAKER_00: The Rams going over 24 hours or less in advance.
- 19:17SPEAKER_00: I won't pretend to be the person that understands that science well, but it's worth looking into some of those quotes, some of those press conferences, and some of those articles.
- 19:23SPEAKER_00: A lot of people automatically dismiss that as a Niners advantage.
- 19:26SPEAKER_00: I actually think it's more so neutral.
- 19:28SPEAKER_00: Um, and I trust the Rams and what they're doing there.
- 19:30SPEAKER_00: So um, one interesting angle to keep an eye of.
- 19:33SPEAKER_00: I'm sure they'll leave the broadcast talking about that.
- 19:35SPEAKER_01: Yeah, no, that's that's a great point.
- 19:37SPEAKER_01: Um, when I look at this game, and these are two teams that I am high on this year.
- 19:43SPEAKER_01: I we we did the NFC West podcast together, and I believe that the Rams are gonna be a top contender in the NFC this year, barring any major injuries.
- 19:54SPEAKER_01: I also do have some confidence, and I feel better now that the 49ers are getting healthier before they actually start playing games.
- 20:02SPEAKER_01: Um, I I feel good about this 49ers team.
- 20:06SPEAKER_01: Honestly, this the the side that I like the most probably in this game is the first half over.
- 20:11SPEAKER_01: I I think that they these two teams are gonna show up ready to go um in a neutral site, new environment.
- 20:18SPEAKER_01: Um, I don't think the body clock is gonna play much of an impact at all.
- 20:22SPEAKER_01: Um, because they're gonna be playing in broad daylight.
- 20:25SPEAKER_01: I don't think there's gonna be a lot of like tired legs there.
- 20:28SPEAKER_01: Ultimately, I just think the Rams are a step above what the 49ers have.
- 20:34SPEAKER_01: Uh, and the difference maker there is Stafford versus Purdy.
- 20:38SPEAKER_01: Uh, I think if this is a close game, which the spread indicates that it could be, that Stafford, Devante, Puka, um, even a guy that has been hyped up in our group chat recently, Blake Coram, I could see him making a late impact in the second half on a um dump off pass from Stafford.
- 20:57SPEAKER_01: I I like the brands in this game.
- 20:59SPEAKER_01: I don't I don't know if they cover, but I definitely think they win the game.
- 21:03SPEAKER_01: Um, I could see this being very close back and forth, like a classic Stafford shootout.
- 21:08SPEAKER_01: Uh, but ultimately they're just good.
- 21:10SPEAKER_01: You know, like they that's how they're gonna win a lot of games, just by outlasting a lot of people.
- 21:15SPEAKER_01: Um, and then obviously we get to see our first look, like we said, at Trent Williams versus Miles Garrett.
- 21:20SPEAKER_01: So we're both on the Rams.
- 21:22SPEAKER_01: That takes us to Sunday, where we get to see the two-time MVP Josh Allen travel to Houston, Texas, where he debuts his new head coach, Joe Brady, who takes over for previous head coach Sean McDermott.
- 21:39SPEAKER_01: And an interesting stat that I I thought this and I looked it up to make sure.
- 21:44SPEAKER_01: Uh I just started thinking about when I was writing notes down for this game.
- 21:47SPEAKER_01: Has Josh Allen ever won at Houston?
- 21:50SPEAKER_01: I feel like every time he's ever played there, it goes horrible.
- 21:54SPEAKER_01: Uh, and he has not.
- 21:55SPEAKER_01: He is 0 3 in his career in Houston.
- 21:58SPEAKER_01: Um, the Texans last year were.
- 22:00SPEAKER_01: A very good home team.
- 22:01SPEAKER_01: Um, they were 7-2 at NRG Stadium, but their right tackle, Braden Smith, is out.
- 22:07SPEAKER_01: Their new right tackle that they brought in from Indianapolis.
- 22:10SPEAKER_01: So the ultimate question to me is do you think Buffalo can run on this Houston defense?
- 22:17SPEAKER_01: Because if not, this is going to be a long day for Josh Allen.
- 22:23SPEAKER_00: You know, I do think that's the key.
- 22:25SPEAKER_00: I I'm not sure if they're going to be able to actually pull that off.
- 22:28SPEAKER_00: Um, but I do think that even if James Cook is going to be a little bit of an inefficient runner because of that Houston front, it's still important to not go away from him.
- 22:36SPEAKER_00: Um, still give him some handoffs, but then also be creative in how they involve him, um, swing it out to him, you know, get him on a short check down route and just let him be a playmaker.
- 22:44SPEAKER_00: I think that the Bills know exactly what they have to James Cook.
- 22:47SPEAKER_00: They showed that with their extension to him last year.
- 22:49SPEAKER_00: Um, I think if him and Josh Allen come out with their super Superman gains this week, I think that's the only recipe to success for the Bills, but I do think they're gonna be able to pull that off.
- 22:59SPEAKER_01: Uh a thing that I have been thinking about when I was thinking about the AFC East is why do I feel like the Bills are gonna win this division?
- 23:09SPEAKER_01: And I don't mean this as a disrespectful thing to Josh Allen, but I I often see quite a bit of like James Harden in him, um, minus like some of the other stuff.
- 23:23SPEAKER_01: I specifically mean like his team performance and his individual performance as well.
- 23:29SPEAKER_01: Like individually, he is a Hall of Fame level player and he consistently carries his teams to good regular seasons.
- 23:38SPEAKER_01: And I think because of that, I just think the Bills are really good at emphasize winning some of these tougher games in the regular seasons that in years past they may not have.
- 23:49SPEAKER_01: Um, I just think I think they're gonna put a lot of stock into the regular season, especially with a new head coach, and try to get a better playoff seed because ultimately that was their downfall last year when the AFC felt pretty wide open.
- 24:02SPEAKER_01: You know, it was the Patriots, the Jags, the Broncos, and the Bills, really, that were the real contenders, and they were on the road for every game.
- 24:11SPEAKER_01: You know, they came to Jacksville and beat us, they had to go to Denver, and things did not work out well, and that's just typically how that goes when you have to stack road games in the playoffs.
- 24:21SPEAKER_01: And I think that the Bills are gonna try to change that outcome ahead of time by forcing the deck and trying to get a home playoff game.
- 24:30SPEAKER_01: And the first step to doing that is going one-on-one in week one.
- 24:34SPEAKER_01: Um, I'm on the Bills.
- 24:36SPEAKER_01: Where who do you have?
- 24:38SPEAKER_00: I think you summed it up really well.
- 24:40SPEAKER_00: I think the emphasis on the regular season will be very clear from them.
- 24:43SPEAKER_00: Um, this is simply a team that, you know, they just didn't bring it here and there, just around the edges.
- 24:48SPEAKER_00: There was um, you know, they left a lot to be desired on the margins, left a lot of meat on the bone.
- 24:53SPEAKER_00: Whatever metaphor you want to pick, I think sums up the bills in the recent years.
- 24:56SPEAKER_00: I think they know that, and that's gonna be a big focus for them this year is capitalizing on exactly games like this.
- 25:02SPEAKER_01: Yeah, totally agree.
- 25:04SPEAKER_01: Um, should be a great game, though.
- 25:05SPEAKER_01: They should be two of the better teams in the NFL this year, uh, or at least in the AFC.
- 25:10SPEAKER_01: So should be a great one o'clock kickoff.
- 25:13SPEAKER_01: Another one o'clock kickoff that I think has some interesting implications is Bucks and Bengals.
- 25:19SPEAKER_01: Um, the Bucks actually just this week extended Baker Mayfield to a new three-year contract.
- 25:26SPEAKER_01: There had been a lot of um controversy whether he would get an extension or go into the season on a uh expiring contract, but it is their first game and Baker's first game with the Bucks without Mike Evans, and the first game Tampa has played without Mike Evans in over a decade.
- 25:44SPEAKER_01: What are your initial thoughts on the Bucks coming into this game on the road in Cincinnati?
- 25:51SPEAKER_00: First, I want to give a shout out to Baker Mayfield.
- 25:53SPEAKER_00: Um, really cool to see him get that contract extension done.
- 25:56SPEAKER_00: Also, I like how the organization handled it now, not previously, but they re-approached him, hey, we're not that far apart.
- 26:03SPEAKER_00: Let's do this behind closed doors.
- 26:04SPEAKER_00: We value you, we want to get this done.
- 26:06SPEAKER_00: A plus from the organization now, also correcting the mistake on how they handled it previously.
- 26:11SPEAKER_00: Um I actually think that momentum is relevant to this game.
- 26:14SPEAKER_00: I think that's probably a mental you know hurdle or clutter that Mayfield wants to get out of the way.
- 26:19SPEAKER_00: Um he anticipated it probably wouldn't be out of the way, but now found money.
- 26:22SPEAKER_00: Um, literally.
- 26:23SPEAKER_00: So I think they come in firing on all cylinders.
- 26:26SPEAKER_00: As long as the Mecca Buka is fully healthy, I think this game's a shootout.
- 26:31SPEAKER_00: I think on the other side, the same way that the Bills are prioritizing a hot start, if you look at a team like Cincinnati, um, Zach Taylor's been great at slow starts.
- 26:39SPEAKER_00: I mean, just phenomenal at them.
- 26:41SPEAKER_00: So this is a team that they can't afford another, you know, one in three, you know, one in four, two and four star.
- 26:47SPEAKER_00: They they just simply can't.
- 26:48SPEAKER_00: Um not only for the playoff price, but for seating too.
- 26:51SPEAKER_00: Um the Bengals are gonna come out hot, just like the Bills.
- 26:54SPEAKER_00: I just don't think the Bucks are gonna slow down.
- 26:56SPEAKER_00: So I think this is, you know, this is why this was almost my number one game of the week.
- 27:00SPEAKER_00: Even talking about it now, I might have to put it above Saints lines that this is gonna be, I think, a shootout and a great game to watch.
- 27:06SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think a a big thing that doesn't get talked about when when a team like the Bengals consistently falls behind the eight ball to start the season, that puts a lot of strain on their on their star players to lift them up out of that, you know, and you see it take a toll on them towards the end of every season the last few years, whether it's Burrow suffering injuries, Jamar Chase, you know, dealing with injuries, T.
- 27:33SPEAKER_01: Higgins missing games from time to time.
- 27:35SPEAKER_01: Um, they they just deal with a lot of injuries because they find themselves having to dig themselves out of holes, and guys are over straining in those situations to overcompensate for their earlier miscues and earlier games in the season.
- 27:50SPEAKER_01: I'm I'm right there with you.
- 27:52SPEAKER_01: I I think the Bengals are gonna have a better season than they have in the last few years.
- 27:57SPEAKER_01: I think they also get off to a much better start this year.
- 28:01SPEAKER_01: Um, Todd Bowles, though, he's four and oh in week one as a head coach, which or as the Bucks head coach, I should specify.
- 28:09SPEAKER_01: He definitely was not winning a bunch of opening games with the Jets, uh, but he's four and oh uh as the Bucks head coach in week one.
- 28:16SPEAKER_01: Um, but ultimately the the number one thing here for me is that Joe Burrow comes into this game completely healthy.
- 28:24SPEAKER_01: Um, they've even been hinting at trying to get him more under center to run more play action because it's been really difficult for them to create explosive uh passes off of play action because they don't get under center that much.
- 28:39SPEAKER_01: And he takes a lot of hits because of it.
- 28:41SPEAKER_01: So I'm excited to see that.
- 28:43SPEAKER_01: Uh I ultimately, though, am taking the Bengals here at home.
- 28:47SPEAKER_01: Who you got?
- 28:49SPEAKER_00: I've got the Bengals as well.
- 28:50SPEAKER_00: Um, really going back again to the similar reason as the Bills.
- 28:54SPEAKER_00: I just think despite being week one, I think the Bills versus Texans and the Bengals versus the Bucs, Bills and Bengals both have those games circled as must wins.
- 29:03SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I I completely agree.
- 29:05SPEAKER_01: Um, we have another really good one o'clock game.
- 29:08SPEAKER_01: The Ravens traveled to Indianapolis to take on the Indianapolis Colts.
- 29:13SPEAKER_01: The Colts who started last season eight and two, and unfortunately, so terribly, regrettably, I'm sad to report, did not win another game after that.
- 29:26SPEAKER_01: Uh, I don't I don't really know uh how else to put it other than that I just was torn up about it, really torn up about it.
- 29:34SPEAKER_01: Uh, but the Colts, they're 8-2 in their last 10 games against the spread against Baltimore.
- 29:40SPEAKER_01: Uh, the biggest thing here, Lamar Jackson comes back healthy, Daniel Jones is back healthy off of his torn ACL.
- 29:49SPEAKER_01: Um my first question: who do you think is more likely to score?
- 29:54SPEAKER_01: Jonathan Taylor or Derrick Henry?
- 29:58SPEAKER_00: That's a great question.
- 30:01SPEAKER_00: Two running backs in some of the NFL's greatest for a long time.
- 30:05SPEAKER_00: Huh.
- 30:08SPEAKER_00: You know, I think I think I'll go with uh JT just by default.
- 30:13SPEAKER_00: Um Henry tends to pick things up later in the year, but I wouldn't be surprised if they both get in the end zone this game.
- 30:19SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I I feel like it's probably JT.
- 30:21SPEAKER_01: He led the NFL in rushing touchdowns last year with 18.
- 30:25SPEAKER_01: He added in two more receiving touchdowns, so he totaled out at 20.
- 30:29SPEAKER_01: Um, he also led the NFL in touches last year, which I think later on this season that will really start to catch up to him.
- 30:36SPEAKER_01: Uh, because he's not a young running, neither of these guys are young running backs anymore.
- 30:41SPEAKER_01: But I agree.
- 30:42SPEAKER_01: I think JT is a little bit more likely to score.
- 30:45SPEAKER_01: I also forgot to mention the Colts are home underdogs by three and a half points in this game.
- 30:50SPEAKER_01: The over-under is set at 47 and a half, which that stuck out to me right away.
- 30:56SPEAKER_01: It felt like a very key number there.
- 30:58SPEAKER_01: Um, slightly above 45, pretty high for a Colts home game where they usually are a little bit more low scoring.
- 31:07SPEAKER_01: Um, that being said, if we're gonna expect points, who would you rather start on fantasy?
- 31:13SPEAKER_01: Zay Flowers against Sauce or Alec Pierce against Nate Wiggins and Marlon Humphrey.
- 31:20SPEAKER_01: Hmm.
- 31:22SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I had a hard time chewing on this one too.
- 31:24SPEAKER_00: I think that I'm gonna go with Alec Pierce.
- 31:27SPEAKER_00: Um for the reason being that I think the Colts are a little bit more concentrated on their pass catchers.
- 31:34SPEAKER_00: A little bit.
- 31:35SPEAKER_00: Um, I also trust Alec Pierce at home.
- 31:37SPEAKER_00: I know that the Colts just paid him, they value him.
- 31:41SPEAKER_00: Um and typically when he gets the most success is on those long plays, especially on the turf.
- 31:45SPEAKER_00: Um Zay Flowers could have a good game, but Alec Pierce should have a couple long catches that that allow him to be more productive than Zay Flowers.
- 31:52SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think my my my thing about Zay Flowers is I I just don't think he's like truly a difference maker.
- 32:00SPEAKER_01: To me, he falls of the guy, the wide receivers that have recently gotten contracts, he falls into like the Christian Watson bucket to me.
- 32:09SPEAKER_01: Like he's just a talented player that at times can make splash plays and be very exciting, but I don't really think he's like week to week a difference maker, especially against like premier corners.
- 32:22SPEAKER_01: Uh ultimately, we got to pick a winner, though.
- 32:25SPEAKER_01: So I'll let you go first here.
- 32:26SPEAKER_01: Who do you think wins this Ravens Colts matchup in week one?
- 32:32SPEAKER_00: I was having a hard time with this one.
- 32:34SPEAKER_00: I put Baltimore that way I could have plausible deniability of if I'm at the Baltimore Colts or the Baltimore Ravens.
- 32:40SPEAKER_01: I was just thinking that, honestly, looking at it.
- 32:44SPEAKER_00: It's tough, man.
- 32:45SPEAKER_00: Um I think Ravens, but you pointed out something really key.
- 32:49SPEAKER_00: Uh the Colts being getting three and a half points at home.
- 32:53SPEAKER_00: That's what really makes me hesitate.
- 32:54SPEAKER_00: So I'm gonna stick with Ravens, but I don't have too much conviction on this one.
- 32:59SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you don't need to convince me super hard to get me to get off my pick, but that being said, I am going to pick the Colts.
- 33:07SPEAKER_01: Um I just think that even if the Colts underperform below expectations, which their win total was set at seven and a half.
- 33:17SPEAKER_01: So, I mean, even if they're seven and ten this year, they still got to win seven games.
- 33:22SPEAKER_01: And chances are some of those are gonna come at home.
- 33:24SPEAKER_01: And the Colts are a competent team, they have a good coach.
- 33:28SPEAKER_01: Their GM is a different conversation.
- 33:30SPEAKER_01: Um, some of their decisions that they make as a as a team are questionable, but they have a good nucleus of players.
- 33:37SPEAKER_01: I I'm obviously been adamant that I'm not a Daniel Jones fan, but at home in this situation, and I do expect some rust from Lamar early on um to kind of hold them down for a few weeks.
- 33:51SPEAKER_01: I I think the Colts ultimately come out on top here, but I will be thrilled if you are right and I'm wrong.
- 33:58SPEAKER_01: So uh that being said, I'm on the Colts.
- 34:01SPEAKER_01: You are on the Ravens.
- 34:03SPEAKER_01: That brings us to the Bears and the Panthers.
- 34:07SPEAKER_01: The Panthers, speaking of home underdogs, are two and a half point dogs at home.
- 34:12SPEAKER_01: The over-under is set at 47 and a half.
- 34:16SPEAKER_01: These it fee this game is a matchup of two teams that won their division: the Bears, the NFC North, and the Panthers, the NFC South via tiebreaker last year.
- 34:27SPEAKER_01: It's also a matchup of two teams that have previously employed DJ Moore, and he will not be playing for either of them.
- 34:34SPEAKER_01: Uh, what what kind of uh target share do you foresee the Bears rolling out with in week one?
- 34:42SPEAKER_01: I know we've both been kind of aligned on the Colston Loveland, Luther Burden um duo really emerging.
- 34:50SPEAKER_01: Uh, and Rome is actually questionable for this game.
- 34:53SPEAKER_01: Um, I'm gonna look real quick while we are talking about this to make sure that that is not changed.
- 34:59SPEAKER_01: Romo Dunze, as of today, won't practice, uh, but the wide receiver is considered day-to-day.
- 35:07SPEAKER_01: The Bears remain hopeful that he'll play in Sunday's season opener.
- 35:12SPEAKER_01: So take that for what you will, as of this recording.
- 35:16SPEAKER_01: Uh, but how do you see, let's say Rome does play and he suits up, uh, albeit limited.
- 35:21SPEAKER_01: What do you see the target share for the Bears really looking like early on in the season?
- 35:28SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so I think I'm I'm probably about as big of a Luther Burton truther as they're as is possible, to be honest.
- 35:34SPEAKER_00: I mean, this is going back to his East St.
- 35:36SPEAKER_00: Louis days in the high school, I've I've been all over this.
- 35:39SPEAKER_00: Um, so I'm certainly not gonna stop now.
- 35:41SPEAKER_00: I think that Luther Burton's due for a huge year.
- 35:44SPEAKER_00: A huge year.
- 35:46SPEAKER_00: Top ten wide receiver finish in fantasy.
- 35:48SPEAKER_00: Um I that's probably a hot take to me.
- 35:50SPEAKER_00: It's not a hot take.
- 35:52SPEAKER_00: I think that he's gonna have a phenomenal year.
- 35:54SPEAKER_00: If you look at a guy like Amandra St.
- 35:56SPEAKER_00: Brown, um, that Ben Johnson coached during his tenure in Detroit, um, the recipe is there for Luther to get those type of routes, and he's an explosive enough player to hit those down the sideline go routes like a Jamison Williams type.
- 36:08SPEAKER_00: Um, furthermore, you throw in the fact that Ben Johnson is um talking about how he wants to have the highest scoring offense of all time.
- 36:14SPEAKER_00: I think when a guy like that says that, I think I think he he actually truly means that.
- 36:19SPEAKER_00: Year two with Caleb and Luther locked in together.
- 36:21SPEAKER_00: I think Luther's gonna blow his you know his expectations out of the water.
- 36:25SPEAKER_00: Um target share, he's gonna be number one.
- 36:28SPEAKER_00: I I say all that, but I don't want to sleep on Roma Juncey.
- 36:31SPEAKER_00: I believe he's a very quality player.
- 36:33SPEAKER_00: I think his target share will be right there.
- 36:35SPEAKER_00: Um you know, as a solid 1B, maybe a little less um, but I think it probably comes down to health for him.
- 36:42SPEAKER_00: And then Colson Loveland's out of that tight end spot.
- 36:45SPEAKER_00: Really, I would put him as him and Luther as the one-two for the Bears.
- 36:49SPEAKER_00: I think that Caleb Williams is going to be looking to find them all day, every day.
- 36:53SPEAKER_00: Um, and if those are players that you have on your fantasy team, um, you have every reason to be excited.
- 36:58SPEAKER_01: To me, I feel like from a fantasy perspective, Luther will be their best fantasy player uh aside from Caleb Williams.
- 37:07SPEAKER_01: Um, I think Luther will be their number one fantasy option on this Bears offense.
- 37:13SPEAKER_01: I do think that Romo Dunze and Colston Loveland could end the year with more touchdowns, um, really just due to like their the mismatches that they create physically.
- 37:24SPEAKER_01: Um and and Romo Dunze is a little bit more of like a go up and get it guy than Luther is.
- 37:29SPEAKER_01: So I could see both of them scoring more touchdowns, but I think in terms of target share, like kind of how we got on this, I think Luther ultimately throughout the course of the season will dominate the target share for the Bears.
- 37:42SPEAKER_01: Um, we even saw in games last year where DJ Moore exited the game that he immediately came in and started to consume large portions of the target share.
- 37:51SPEAKER_01: Uh that being said, the Panthers also feature a pretty dominant number one wide receiver also entering his second year, Ted Oroa McMillan.
- 38:02SPEAKER_01: Who do you think is more likely to score in this game?
- 38:06SPEAKER_01: Luther Burden or Ted?
- 38:08SPEAKER_00: Luther Burden.
- 38:10SPEAKER_00: Um and that's nothing against Ted.
- 38:12SPEAKER_00: I do also think that both of these receivers will be amped up to go against each other.
- 38:17SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 38:17SPEAKER_00: You know, from Ted's standpoint, you know, I'm the wide receiver one in the class, not you.
- 38:21SPEAKER_00: And you know, from Luther's standpoint, same thing.
- 38:22SPEAKER_00: You know, I should have been drafted over you, that kind of thing.
- 38:25SPEAKER_00: Um, I actually think they'll both get in the end zone.
- 38:27SPEAKER_00: Um I'm very confident that Luther gets in the end zone.
- 38:31SPEAKER_00: I'm also excited to see what kind of celebration he breaks out because he can be he can be a fun one with that.
- 38:35SPEAKER_00: In addition to on the field, he can do some light antics.
- 38:39SPEAKER_00: He's a really fun player to watch.
- 38:40SPEAKER_00: I think he I think he gets in the end zone this week.
- 38:42SPEAKER_01: So I will go ahead and kick us off with our winner for this game.
- 38:46SPEAKER_01: I am pretty bullish on the Bears this year, and I feel the opposite, honestly, about the Panthers.
- 38:53SPEAKER_01: I have the Bears winning this game pretty handily.
- 38:57SPEAKER_01: I I I think they'll win this game probably by eight to ten points.
- 39:01SPEAKER_01: Um, I could see this really coming down like 30 to 17 kind of score, uh, maybe 30 to 21 if the Panthers can turn a few field goals into touchdowns.
- 39:11SPEAKER_01: But ultimately, I think the the the Bears win this game by over a touchdown.
- 39:15SPEAKER_01: What about you?
- 39:17SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I agree with that.
- 39:18SPEAKER_00: The score that I'm envisioning is you know around 10, 11, 12 points, even possibly even higher.
- 39:25SPEAKER_00: Obviously, in the NFL, we don't see that too often, but yeah, um, I really believe in the Bears' attack this year.
- 39:30SPEAKER_00: I think they're gonna come out on fire.
- 39:31SPEAKER_00: I don't know if the Panthers have enough to stop him.
- 39:34SPEAKER_01: The the other thing that I'm worried specifically early on in the season about the Panthers, at when the Panthers are at their best on offense, they are a team that runs the ball very, very well.
- 39:46SPEAKER_01: But with last year, we saw a lot from Chuba Hubbard.
- 39:48SPEAKER_01: We've seen it with Rico Dowdle in the past, um, and now Jonathan Brooks.
- 39:53SPEAKER_01: But Jonathan Brooks and Chuba Hubbard are both injured right now.
- 39:57SPEAKER_01: They there's hope that both of them will play this week, but that doesn't make me feel great about relying on this Panthers offense that needs to run the football to open up their passing game.
- 40:09SPEAKER_01: If both of their running backs come into this game hurt, uh, that just gives me all the more confidence in the Bears.
- 40:16SPEAKER_01: So you can see my jersey.
- 40:18SPEAKER_01: It's it is a number seven former LSU Tiger Brian Thomas Jr., who will be donning his number seven jersey at one o'clock Eastern Time on Sunday while yours truly is in attendance against the Browns.
- 40:34SPEAKER_01: The first thing about this game that I have to get out of the way is the Sean Watson is starting week one despite an incredibly rough preseason, not only in the games, but in his practices as well.
- 40:47SPEAKER_01: Uh, I think there was a streak in between their first and second preseason game where three straight days of practice, he threw multiple interceptions.
- 40:56SPEAKER_01: So it it's the most Brown thing of all time that Todd Munkin, as a new head coach, doesn't just roll out the younger option.
- 41:05SPEAKER_01: Um to me, even if they don't think that Shador is a better quarterback than Deshaun Watson today or ever, it makes no sense to me that Deshaun Watson is starting this game.
- 41:17SPEAKER_01: He is an older quarterback, he's an expensive quarterback, and he is on an expiring contract.
- 41:24SPEAKER_01: And the fact that they are still gonna roll this guy out here against a team that was the best run defense in the NFL last year and was second in the NFL in turnovers, that is a recipe for disaster.
- 41:36SPEAKER_01: And that's the reason that this spread, by the time I typed it in this morning, has already jumped up another half of a point.
- 41:43SPEAKER_01: Uh, it has been sitting all offseason, Jags minus seven and a half, and it is now Jags minus nine.
- 41:50SPEAKER_01: The over-under is set at 40 and a half.
- 41:53SPEAKER_01: What are your thoughts on the Browns coming into this game?
- 41:57SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think they would have a better chance to win if they had the Jaguars backup when you were on the team, honestly.
- 42:02SPEAKER_00: Um I I don't think you were hard on hard enough on Deshaun uh Watson.
- 42:07SPEAKER_00: I I second everything you said, and I I would go even farther.
- 42:10SPEAKER_00: I think I think he's just not it.
- 42:13SPEAKER_00: We'll say that.
- 42:14SPEAKER_00: Um, I think the Jags will have a field day.
- 42:16SPEAKER_00: The Jags showed last year, um, much improved defense.
- 42:19SPEAKER_00: Um, I think they'll continue this year with a with a great defense.
- 42:22SPEAKER_00: A little underrated angle, too, as well.
- 42:25SPEAKER_00: Um, I know you're excited for um Travis Hunter to return.
- 42:29SPEAKER_00: Um we're certainly excited to see him play make on defense, but um again, this is the team, the Browns that originally had that number two pick and traded that away um for the package that ultimately landed uh Travis Hunter.
- 42:41SPEAKER_00: So um if you're a player, you're probably you know, again, that kind of that mental motivation factor, you're really thinking about okay, so I wasn't good enough for you.
- 42:51SPEAKER_00: Even even though that's not the case, if you're the player rightfully so, that's what you're thinking.
- 42:54SPEAKER_00: So if you couple that with Travis Hunter really just itching to get back on the field after missing uh the last half of the season, um, I know you as a Jags fan couldn't be more excited, and I think all NFL fans should be excited to see um not only the Jags defense and offense this year, but also how Travis Hunter fits in.
- 43:11SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I I think that uh it seems likely to me, like I said, the Jags were second in the NFL in turnovers this year, last year.
- 43:20SPEAKER_01: It's unlikely that they are that good.
- 43:23SPEAKER_01: I mean, turnovers always have some regression involved in in them, but I would say that it it's a better whatever the odds are for Travis Hunter to come down with an interception this week, it's that the odds are wrong because of exactly what you said.
- 43:39SPEAKER_01: He will be extremely motivated to play in this game.
- 43:43SPEAKER_01: If you haven't seen a picture of Travis Hunter in the last 30 days, you should Google it because he is 15 pounds heavier than he was, and he's faster than he was last year.
- 43:55SPEAKER_01: That to me is one of the most insane things you could tell me.
- 44:00SPEAKER_01: Because he was already one of the most premier athletes in all of the world.
- 44:04SPEAKER_01: I am very excited to see Travis Hunter.
- 44:07SPEAKER_01: I'm excited to see all of our offense.
- 44:09SPEAKER_01: Uh, we've talked a lot about Brian Thomas Jr., about Parker Washington, Jacoby Myers.
- 44:14SPEAKER_01: We also extended tight end Brenton Strange.
- 44:17SPEAKER_01: We drafted two other tight ends, and we get to see the Beishall Tutin show, root and tootin', baby, all the way to the end zone.
- 44:25SPEAKER_01: Any Browns here before we dive in a little bit further on the Jags that you would start in fantasy other than Quinshawn Judkins?
- 44:35SPEAKER_00: Yeah, um, I think it would come down to roster makeup, but I am very excited to see where this offseason hype on the rookie receivers takes us.
- 44:43SPEAKER_00: Um, I think Denzel Boston seemingly got a little more hype.
- 44:46SPEAKER_00: Um, don't get me wrong, I'm excited about him, but I'm I'm really high in KC Concepcion um coming out of Texas AM.
- 44:53SPEAKER_00: I think he was someone that in college you've seen him line up all over the field.
- 44:56SPEAKER_00: The Browns have said they plan to use him, utilize him all over the field.
- 44:59SPEAKER_00: Um so I think even in a low volume offense, bad quarterback, not a good matchup.
- 45:04SPEAKER_00: I do think that he's somebody that um does get featured in the offense and could end up being a good fancy player.
- 45:10SPEAKER_00: I'm not gonna force any Browns by any means, but if I am looking there, I think that's probably the direction I go with Conception.
- 45:17SPEAKER_01: When I look at these odds for this game, there's two things that stand out to me right away.
- 45:24SPEAKER_01: The Jags are favored by over a touchdown, and the total is under 42.
- 45:30SPEAKER_01: Typically, when that happens, both of those things occur, which usually indicates that one team is going to put some beat down on another, you know, a 27-10 kind of score that falls into both of those, uh, the under and the spread being covered.
- 45:48SPEAKER_01: I I think that there is a virtual lock here that the Jaguars will win this game.
- 45:55SPEAKER_01: Liam Cohen is a master motivator of men.
- 45:59SPEAKER_01: He knows how to get people riled up, how to feel disrespected.
- 46:03SPEAKER_01: And even though the Jags won 13 games last year, it seems like they're the most slept-on team in the NFL.
- 46:10SPEAKER_01: And Trevor Lawrence, despite being an MVP finalist, was left off of Albert Breer's top 14 quarterback rankings behind his rival CJ Stroud.
- 46:22SPEAKER_01: So if that doesn't get him ready to go on Sunday, nothing will.
- 46:26SPEAKER_01: I think the Jags cover.
- 46:27SPEAKER_01: I think they open a full can of whoop ass on the Browns this weekend.
- 46:32SPEAKER_01: Who you got?
- 46:34SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think you said it well.
- 46:36SPEAKER_00: With that line and that total, it's definitely got me thinking along the same lines.
- 46:39SPEAKER_00: I was thinking, you know, anywhere from 27-6, even a full beatdown to, you know, 26-10, that that that type of range, kind of like you said.
- 46:47SPEAKER_00: I do fully expect that kind of result.
- 46:49SPEAKER_00: I think the Browns are just simply outmatched when you look at offense, defense, coaching.
- 46:54SPEAKER_00: Um, and I'm pretty sure the Browns were dead last in special teams last year.
- 46:57SPEAKER_00: So I just don't think they stand a chance.
- 47:00SPEAKER_01: Yeah, totally agree.
- 47:02SPEAKER_01: Um, let's move on.
- 47:04SPEAKER_01: Next game, an NFC East showdown.
- 47:06SPEAKER_01: We actually have two NFC East showdowns we're gonna get to.
- 47:09SPEAKER_01: Um, the Commanders and the Eagles.
- 47:12SPEAKER_01: The Eagles are favored by four and a half points.
- 47:14SPEAKER_01: The over-under is set at 44 and a half.
- 47:17SPEAKER_01: This game kicks off at 4.25 Eastern Time on Sunday.
- 47:22SPEAKER_01: Brand new look for the Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver room.
- 47:25SPEAKER_01: No AJ Brown.
- 47:27SPEAKER_01: He will be making his debut with the Patriots tonight.
- 47:30SPEAKER_01: They do start rookie wide receiver out of USC Mikai Lemon, opposite Devonta Smith.
- 47:36SPEAKER_01: And they will be taking on a very rebuilt Washington Commanders defense.
- 47:42SPEAKER_01: Um, they brought in a ton of free agents, Odafa Owe.
- 47:46SPEAKER_01: Um they, I mean, they really I think they brought in 12 free agents to supplement their defense, which they needed it.
- 47:54SPEAKER_01: Three of the four worst defenses in the entire NFL last year were the Commanders, the Cowboys, and the Giants.
- 48:00SPEAKER_01: So they were right to spend some money on defense.
- 48:03SPEAKER_01: Uh, initial thoughts about this game, Commanders and Eagles.
- 48:08SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I sort of had a hard time picking this one, but I think that speaks to um the potential this game has to really be great.
- 48:14SPEAKER_00: Looking at an NFC East matchup, we've seen in this specific matchup in the last few years, um, there's been multiple results that didn't go as we anticipated, where one team was sort of down on their luck, but still found a way to win.
- 48:25SPEAKER_00: Um, those interdivisional matchups, you know, they really have such a high familiarity.
- 48:29SPEAKER_00: Um things went a little better last year for the Eagles than they did the commanders.
- 48:33SPEAKER_00: Things kind of broke down for the commanders.
- 48:35SPEAKER_00: Not really speaking of the same sort of vibe as the Bills or Bengals, but I think there is enough hunger for the commanders to kind of bounce back.
- 48:42SPEAKER_00: Um the Eagles are looking to return to their Super Bowl form, of course, but they are doing it with a completely new offense.
- 48:48SPEAKER_00: So um that's where my pick kind of comes in.
- 48:50SPEAKER_00: I do have the commanders winning.
- 48:52SPEAKER_00: I think they'll have just enough with the motivation um and kind of you know the bounce back, and then maybe Philly struggles just a bit with implementing their new offense.
- 49:00SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 49:01SPEAKER_01: Uh to me, the two things that really stand out to me.
- 49:05SPEAKER_01: One is gonna be this matchup between Terry McLaurin and Stephon Diggs against Quenyan Mitchell and Cooper DeGene.
- 49:11SPEAKER_01: And then the other thing that I keep looking at is the fact that the Eagles, you would think that they practice against Jalen Hurts every week.
- 49:19SPEAKER_01: They would be one of the better teams against defending running quarterbacks.
- 49:23SPEAKER_01: And in fact, the last two years, they've been one of the worst.
- 49:27SPEAKER_01: Uh, last year they allowed 25 rushing yards per game, which doesn't seem like a lot, but when you consider that about half the quarterbacks in the NFL don't run at all, uh that is a lot.
- 49:38SPEAKER_01: And Jaden is a quarterback that likes to run.
- 49:41SPEAKER_01: I also kind of just think, given this narrative around him, how his season went last year with multiple injuries causing him to miss a large portion of the season and then eventually the rest of the season later on, I think he's gonna be supremely motivated to make his mark here against Jalen Hurts.
- 49:59SPEAKER_01: And it is no secret, I am not in on the Philadelphia Eagles this year.
- 50:04SPEAKER_01: I think that there is a massive, massive stink brewing in that locker room.
- 50:10SPEAKER_01: Their offensive line coach, I don't know if you saw this, their offensive line coach who had been there for 12 years, all by all considerations, is a Hall of Fame level assistant coach, one of the best.
- 50:23SPEAKER_01: I mean, they've consistently had one of the best offensive lines.
- 50:26SPEAKER_01: They tried to get this man to reduce his role and change actually position groups and get him to focus as a run game coordinator, and he walked away.
- 50:38SPEAKER_01: He said, I'd rather retire than change what I do.
- 50:42SPEAKER_01: I've been doing this for three head coaches since I've been with the Eagles.
- 50:46SPEAKER_01: I I just think like that is so symbolic of so many things with this team.
- 50:50SPEAKER_01: Like the AJ Brown nonsense, like was he the one that was in the wrong, or was it the team?
- 50:56SPEAKER_01: All the constant Nick Siriani shenanigans and his loud mouth and the antics that he puts on.
- 51:03SPEAKER_01: I just don't like the vibe that I get out of this locker room.
- 51:08SPEAKER_01: This is really more of like an NBA thing that I'm talking about, where you can see like too many personalities together and it blows up.
- 51:15SPEAKER_01: But I think that this Eagles team is poised for disaster this year.
- 51:20SPEAKER_01: I am on the commanders.
- 51:22SPEAKER_01: The commanders also have a pretty hard start to their schedule.
- 51:25SPEAKER_01: I think it is very important that they win this game an in division game on the road.
- 51:30SPEAKER_01: I like the commanders here as well.
- 51:32SPEAKER_01: Um, any other thoughts on this game before we go to Sunday night football?
- 51:37SPEAKER_00: No, I'm just glad we get one of those classic NFC East matchups to start the year.
- 51:41SPEAKER_00: I love it.
- 51:42SPEAKER_01: Well, we got another one to talk about for Sunday night football.
- 51:45SPEAKER_01: That is the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants.
- 51:49SPEAKER_01: This is the debut game for new head coach John Harbaugh taking over uh as the Giants head coach, coming over from being in Baltimore for the last 16 seasons.
- 52:02SPEAKER_01: And this also marks the return of Cam Scatabou and Malik Neighbors coming back from their season-ending injuries.
- 52:09SPEAKER_01: Uh, my prediction though, I I ran through this on the NFC East podcast.
- 52:14SPEAKER_01: It kind of coincides with how I feel about the Eagles.
- 52:17SPEAKER_01: I think the Cowboys are going to run away with this division and won't look back.
- 52:23SPEAKER_01: I think they're going to win five games in this division this year.
- 52:26SPEAKER_01: Um, I I don't care that this is on the road.
- 52:30SPEAKER_01: I don't care that it's at night.
- 52:32SPEAKER_01: I think the the total is set at 48 and a half, and the cowboys are road favorites.
- 52:36SPEAKER_01: That screams to me that this total will hit and they'll probably win this game by one point.
- 52:42SPEAKER_01: That's that's what it's that's what it says to me.
- 52:45SPEAKER_01: Uh I have the Cowboys here.
- 52:47SPEAKER_01: Who do who do you have?
- 52:49SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I'm also hiring the Cowboys this year, um, and in this matchup as well.
- 52:53SPEAKER_00: I think um them being at home um for me is you know enough of a difference maker.
- 52:59SPEAKER_00: I think uh the Cowboys, you know, we talked I I keep going back to the Bengals Bills thing, but the Cowboys are kind of like that every year.
- 53:05SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 53:06SPEAKER_00: Like they've had enough frustration um where finally this year is the year things kind of bounced their way more so.
- 53:13SPEAKER_00: Um I don't think enough can be said about CeeDee and Dickens together as a duo.
- 53:19SPEAKER_00: We didn't even get to see that as full potential last year.
- 53:21SPEAKER_00: CeeDee had things bounced the wrong way, a little injury, uh a little bad luck.
- 53:25SPEAKER_00: Um so I I think the Cowboys will win, um, like you said, and I expect him to be very, very high power this year.
- 53:31SPEAKER_00: I'm sure when they catch the Giants again later in the year, maybe that's one of the division games they either have a hard time or could end up losing.
- 53:38SPEAKER_00: But I think with Harbaugh, you know, just getting the guys you know going now, Dallas being at home, I think they take this one.
- 53:46SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I and when I look at the NFC as a whole, the three teams that I feel the utmost confidence in from an organizational approach, from an offensive perspective, um, from a defensive schematic perspective, I really like that they brought in Christian Parker to be their new defensive coordinator.
- 54:06SPEAKER_01: Matt Eberflus shouldn't be defensive coordinator at a major college, much less uh in in the NFL.
- 54:16SPEAKER_01: He just doesn't create enough pressure.
- 54:17SPEAKER_01: He plays very conservative defense.
- 54:20SPEAKER_01: Um, we saw it when he was with the Colts.
- 54:22SPEAKER_01: We saw it last year when he was with the Cowboys, um, we saw it in in his time in Chicago as well.
- 54:29SPEAKER_01: Um, he's been a pretty passive defensive coordinator.
- 54:32SPEAKER_01: He reminds me a lot of Gus Bradley, and Christian Parker is basically the exact opposite of that.
- 54:38SPEAKER_01: Um, he is an all-out, all-aggressive defensive coordinator.
- 54:42SPEAKER_01: I like Caleb Downs fitting into this defense.
- 54:45SPEAKER_01: Um, I love their defensive line.
- 54:47SPEAKER_01: They're they're two um rookie pass rushers, Malachi Lawrence primarily their first round pick from UCF, uh, right next to Quinnen Williams.
- 54:58SPEAKER_01: I think that that combination right there is going to absolutely wreck this Giants running game.
- 55:04SPEAKER_01: I'm all over the Cowboys here.
- 55:08SPEAKER_01: So that takes us to Monday night football in Kansas City.
- 55:14SPEAKER_01: They will be hosting last year's AFC West champion, the Denver Broncos.
- 55:19SPEAKER_01: The Chiefs open up as a two and a half point favorite.
- 55:23SPEAKER_01: The over-under is set at 43.5 on Monday night football.
- 55:28SPEAKER_01: It is likely, as it was confirmed today by reports, that Patrick Mahomes will start week one.
- 55:34SPEAKER_01: Um, Bo Nicks also coming back from his ankle surgery that he had that forced him to miss the AFC title game.
- 55:40SPEAKER_01: And this is also Kenneth Walker, the third's debut with the Chiefs after leaving Seattle and winning the Super Bowl MVP.
- 55:47SPEAKER_01: Some big injury news though.
- 55:49SPEAKER_01: Chiefs left tackle, Josh Simmons, the the third-year left tackle out of Ohio State, not expected to play, um, which could play a big impact with Nick Benito over there.
- 56:01SPEAKER_01: Um, what are your thoughts about this game initially when you look at these two teams facing off in week one?
- 56:08SPEAKER_00: I think the Chiefs have been really disappointing in the last uh couple seasons, leaving you know a lot of games up to chance that shouldn't have been at the risk of really overdoing the Bills and Bangles mentioned.
- 56:22SPEAKER_00: I I think the Chiefs are kind of in that same category, I really do.
- 56:26SPEAKER_00: Um teams that we know are better than the record the last couple years.
- 56:28SPEAKER_00: They also have a superstar quarterback, so we're not just hoping they get it together, we're you know, we're really pinning the hopes on hey, the superstar quarterback, we know who he is, we know what he does, MVP caliber in Mahomes' case, literally an MVP Super Bowl champ.
- 56:40SPEAKER_00: Um I think he's gonna bring it all together for them.
- 56:43SPEAKER_00: I also think that a lot of time this offseason has been spent uh from a lot of fans focusing on the Mahomes injury, deservedly so.
- 56:50SPEAKER_00: Um, but you like you pointed out, Bo Knicks is also coming back from an injury.
- 56:53SPEAKER_00: So I don't think that's a huge advantage for the Broncos.
- 56:56SPEAKER_00: Um that's kind of like a small negative for both teams.
- 56:59SPEAKER_00: So I don't expect that to really dictate things.
- 57:02SPEAKER_00: I think that who will dictate things is is 15.
- 57:04SPEAKER_00: I think Mahomes will get the Chiefs right here.
- 57:07SPEAKER_01: I think to me, like when I look at this matchup, the Broncos are not great against the run.
- 57:13SPEAKER_01: They are tremendous against the pass and a tremendous pass rushing team.
- 57:17SPEAKER_01: I like Kenneth Walker in this game.
- 57:20SPEAKER_01: I think that he can have a pretty efficient and effective game, maybe not like a super high yardage total, but I think his yards per carry will be pretty high.
- 57:29SPEAKER_01: I also think he could easily find the end zone at home.
- 57:32SPEAKER_01: Um, ultimately, again, like kind of similar to the Eagles, but without all the drama, I do think that the Broncos are poised for a significant regression this year.
- 57:44SPEAKER_01: And I think that starts on the road.
- 57:46SPEAKER_01: They won 11 one-score games last year.
- 57:50SPEAKER_01: Seven of those they came from behind in the fourth quarter, which is unheard of for a team that was the number one seed in the AFC.
- 57:58SPEAKER_01: Ultimately, I just think the fact that it's at home, it's Mahomes' day uh return, essentially, his debut.
- 58:05SPEAKER_01: Um, I just think that the emotion will be there behind this crowd, behind this team.
- 58:10SPEAKER_01: Um, we both know very well that Arrowhead gets loud and it gets filled up real quick.
- 58:15SPEAKER_01: Uh, and especially for a Monday night game, those fans will be drinking in that parking lot all day long.
- 58:21SPEAKER_01: I'm on the Chiefs.
- 58:22SPEAKER_01: What about you?
- 58:24SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I've got the Chiefs taking it home.
- 58:26SPEAKER_00: Um, I'm really excited to see Mahomes get back out there.
- 58:29SPEAKER_00: Also excited to see um the Mahomes Rashi Rice uh combo and see what it can do this year.
- 58:34SPEAKER_01: Nice.
- 58:35SPEAKER_01: So we have a few other games.
- 58:36SPEAKER_01: We're just gonna run through these a little bit more rapid fire.
- 58:39SPEAKER_01: So first game is Falcons and Steelers.
- 58:42SPEAKER_01: The Steelers are three-point favorites.
- 58:45SPEAKER_01: I am on the Steelers.
- 58:47SPEAKER_01: Nate also took the Steelers.
- 58:49SPEAKER_01: Uh Saints, Lions.
- 58:51SPEAKER_01: The Lions are seven and a half point favorites.
- 58:54SPEAKER_01: This was Nate's must-watch game of the week.
- 58:57SPEAKER_01: The Lions are both of our picks as well, but this is where we get a little bit of differentiation.
- 59:03SPEAKER_01: So the Packers take on the Vikings in Minnesota.
- 59:06SPEAKER_01: Minnesota is a slight home favorite at one and a half.
- 59:10SPEAKER_01: I am on the Packers.
- 59:12SPEAKER_01: Do you want to give us a quick thought on your Vikings pick?
- 59:17SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and this one doesn't really come down to matchup because if it did, I think I would pick the Packers.
- 59:22SPEAKER_00: Um, I've just noticed that these games, for whatever reason, when I look at them the last couple years, I tend to be thinking on the wrong side of who's gonna win.
- 59:30SPEAKER_00: I was kind of leading the Packers, and I just simply went the opposite here.
- 59:32SPEAKER_00: I just went with the Vikings at home.
- 59:34SPEAKER_01: Fair.
- 59:34SPEAKER_01: Hey, that's fair.
- 59:36SPEAKER_01: So in week one, that is the week that that happens, like when the thing that you don't expect to happen is what happens, especially with these short spreads.
- 59:44SPEAKER_01: So I like the thought there.
- 59:46SPEAKER_01: Um, the Jets also traveled to Tennessee to take on the Titans, who are two and a half point favorites at home.
- 59:53SPEAKER_01: I am on the Jets.
- 59:55SPEAKER_01: I I said this when Dylan joined for the AFC East podcast.
- 1:00:00SPEAKER_01: I am not a fan of the Jets this year.
- 1:00:02SPEAKER_01: That being said, I do think Geno Smith is poised to have a better week one than Cam Ward.
- 1:00:08SPEAKER_01: Um, I still don't trust these Titans weapons.
- 1:00:11SPEAKER_01: Um, I just think this is gonna be a bad game in general, and I think that the Jets have a little bit more competent quarterback play, which this might be the only time all season that they can say that.
- 1:00:23SPEAKER_01: Um, who are you on here?
- 1:00:26SPEAKER_00: Yeah, the the Titans, but I don't feel great about it really.
- 1:00:29SPEAKER_01: Um I don't feel great about the Jets either, I promise.
- 1:00:33SPEAKER_00: Yeah, right.
- 1:00:34SPEAKER_00: Like my my instinct looking at the game is oh, not the Jets, but then I see, oh, they're playing the Titans, you know, so it's uh kind of a lose lose here, but um, I guess my outside of Tennessee, I I am a fan of Brian Dayball, so maybe they can work some magic and end up beating New York week one.
- 1:00:51SPEAKER_01: Yep.
- 1:00:52SPEAKER_01: Uh, and then two other games, the Dolphins travel all the way out to Las Vegas, where the Raiders are three and a half point home favorites.
- 1:01:00SPEAKER_01: Nate and I are both on the Dolphins, actually.
- 1:01:03SPEAKER_01: Some road dogs.
- 1:01:05SPEAKER_01: The team that I think the disrespect on the Dolphins, I'll just I'll say this before we go to the last game.
- 1:01:10SPEAKER_01: The disrespect on the Dolphins is out of hand.
- 1:01:13SPEAKER_01: I don't know why people are acting like they are the Jets or the Cardinals.
- 1:01:18SPEAKER_01: I I don't think that this coaching staff or the GM or this front office or Malik Willis for that matter are that bad.
- 1:01:26SPEAKER_01: And I think that they're gonna be a competitive bunch, which in the NFL, all these guys are good.
- 1:01:32SPEAKER_01: If you show up focused with a good game plan, you can catch teams.
- 1:01:36SPEAKER_01: You know, like you can catch teams sleeping or not locked in.
- 1:01:40SPEAKER_01: I just think that the Dolphins are gonna surprise people.
- 1:01:42SPEAKER_01: I don't see them being like a two or a three-win team.
- 1:01:45SPEAKER_01: I think they actually go on the road and get a win against the Raiders, um, which clearly you share that belief.
- 1:01:52SPEAKER_01: Um, the last game that we have is the Cardinals and the Chargers, the biggest spread of the weekend, and that sees the Chargers favored by nine and a half points.
- 1:02:04SPEAKER_01: Uh, I'll let you take this one.
- 1:02:06SPEAKER_01: I have the Chargers.
- 1:02:07SPEAKER_01: What's your take on this game?
- 1:02:10SPEAKER_00: I've got the Chargers as well.
- 1:02:12SPEAKER_00: I actually anticipate it.
- 1:02:13SPEAKER_00: Um, could be a little bit closer than what meets the eye.
- 1:02:17SPEAKER_00: The Cardinals have such such a tough schedule to open the year.
- 1:02:21SPEAKER_00: Um, I I know it's the hardest in the league.
- 1:02:23SPEAKER_00: It's it's probably one of the hardest in recent memory.
- 1:02:26SPEAKER_00: I say that to frame it like this.
- 1:02:28SPEAKER_00: I think that the Cardinals know that and will see some good fight with them uh to open up the season because they're staring at what a lot of people pencil in to be, you know, 0-8, 0-9, 0-10.
- 1:02:38SPEAKER_00: Um, these are professional athletes.
- 1:02:39SPEAKER_00: They have pride and ability.
- 1:02:42SPEAKER_00: They're not just gonna sit there and be a doormat.
- 1:02:44SPEAKER_00: Um, so I think the Cardinals they gotta find a way to get a win at some point, you know, to open up the season in this, you know, eight, nine, ten game stretch, whatever it is.
- 1:02:52SPEAKER_00: I don't think it's necessarily gonna be week one, but I think we see some fight from this team, and it's uh a better game, a closer game, and a higher scoring game than most people anticipate.
- 1:03:00SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I like it.
- 1:03:01SPEAKER_01: I I also don't think that the Cardinals are gonna be completely chop liver in most weeks.
- 1:03:07SPEAKER_01: Um, I think they have enough on offense, at least, um, especially with Mike LaFleur there now as their head coach.
- 1:03:14SPEAKER_01: Um, Jacoby Brissett is a guy that's been around the NFL for multiple teams and started games.
- 1:03:19SPEAKER_01: They still have Marvin Harrison.
- 1:03:21SPEAKER_01: They have my guy, Michael Wilson Jr.
- 1:03:23SPEAKER_01: from Notre Dame, that I love him.
- 1:03:26SPEAKER_01: He is gonna fit perfectly in that kind of like Puka Nakua, bigger wide receiver, run blocker who can get over the middle of the field.
- 1:03:34SPEAKER_01: Um, I think he's really gonna have a good season.
- 1:03:36SPEAKER_01: And obviously, they have Trey McBride.
- 1:03:38SPEAKER_01: So um I don't think that this team is completely dead meat most weeks.
- 1:03:43SPEAKER_01: I just don't think that they're gonna come out with more points than their opponent more often than not.
- 1:03:48SPEAKER_01: So that being said, we have given our winners for every game.
- 1:03:52SPEAKER_01: It is time to tail the tailgate.
- 1:03:55SPEAKER_01: That means picks for me and Nate lining up for week one.
- 1:04:00SPEAKER_01: Uh, Nate, do you want to go first or do you want me to go first?
- 1:04:03SPEAKER_01: We can ping pong these or whatever whatever you prefer.
- 1:04:07SPEAKER_01: The guest decides.
- 1:04:11SPEAKER_01: Um unless you go first.
- 1:04:15SPEAKER_01: My first pick, um, one that I have had placed for a while, is Saints plus seven and a half.
- 1:04:23SPEAKER_01: I think this line actually moved down today to seven.
- 1:04:28SPEAKER_01: Um, if you can still find seven and a half, that would be ideal.
- 1:04:32SPEAKER_01: I am giving out Saints plus seven and a half as my first pick.
- 1:04:39SPEAKER_00: All right, I'm gonna turn it to some props, I think.
- 1:04:42SPEAKER_01: Yeah, go for it.
- 1:04:44SPEAKER_00: I've got Luther Burton over 56 and a half yards.
- 1:04:47SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, I kind of got into the reasoning earlier.
- 1:04:49SPEAKER_00: I think that everything's come together for him.
- 1:04:51SPEAKER_00: He's got the ability, he's got the system, he's got the coach, he's got the matchup.
- 1:04:54SPEAKER_00: I just think it's a smash play.
- 1:04:56SPEAKER_00: Luther Burton over 56 and a half receding yards.
- 1:04:59SPEAKER_01: Nice.
- 1:04:59SPEAKER_01: Uh I'll keep the doc updated so I can track our picks.
- 1:05:04SPEAKER_01: My second pick that I'm gonna give out, uh, one that we just talked about, is the Jets plus one and a half, the stinkiest line you could find.
- 1:05:13SPEAKER_01: I think if anybody sees that this line is the Jets as road dogs by one and a half, I think most average people will take the Titans in that situation.
- 1:05:24SPEAKER_01: I am going to take the Jets.
- 1:05:26SPEAKER_01: I just feel like it stinks loud enough that there's gotta be something smelly under there, and that's a smelly road dog.
- 1:05:33SPEAKER_01: I'm taking the Jets.
- 1:05:36SPEAKER_00: Alright, for my next one.
- 1:05:38SPEAKER_00: Um You know, I'm I'm gonna stick with the theme of receivers we love.
- 1:05:43SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna go with Parker Washington over fifty three and a half yards, receiving yards, of course.
- 1:05:47SPEAKER_00: Um now this isn't a game where the Jaguars offense has to turn up.
- 1:05:51SPEAKER_00: I don't think they're gonna be really challenged very much at all by the Browns.
- 1:05:55SPEAKER_00: However, I think Parker Washington easily hits that line.
- 1:05:58SPEAKER_00: Fifty three and a half is just too low.
- 1:06:00SPEAKER_00: This is a guy that's going to be in the 70s, 80s, 90s throughout the season.
- 1:06:03SPEAKER_00: I'm very high on him, especially in the Liam Cohen offense as a slot receiver.
- 1:06:07SPEAKER_00: Even when he moves around, I think he'll have no issue getting to that over 53 and a half yards.
- 1:06:13SPEAKER_01: I like that.
- 1:06:13SPEAKER_01: It segues nicely into my third pick, which is Jags' first half minus four.
- 1:06:20SPEAKER_01: I just think that that is a perfect spot for a team at home against a, you know, I'll say maligned offense to be nice about the Browns.
- 1:06:31SPEAKER_01: I just think four points is not enough for what this first half will look like.
- 1:06:36SPEAKER_01: Um while kind of like you said, while the Jags are still motivated to throw the football, I am going to take the Jags minus four in the first half.
- 1:06:45SPEAKER_01: Hit me with your next pick, Nate.
- 1:06:49SPEAKER_00: For my next pick, I'm gonna stick with the props.
- 1:06:52SPEAKER_00: I've got Terrence Ferguson over 22 and a half yards.
- 1:06:57SPEAKER_00: I think that with his role this year, um let me back up.
- 1:07:02SPEAKER_00: I think that with his role last year, we saw that he's someone that's gonna be featured in the scene.
- 1:07:06SPEAKER_00: Um, I mean his yards per catch were something astronomical like 22 or 23, just numbers you don't really see.
- 1:07:12SPEAKER_00: Yes, that was a small sample size, but I expect um really that his usage is gonna double, you know, triple this season.
- 1:07:21SPEAKER_00: I think that 22 and a half yards is something he hits in the first half, to be honest.
- 1:07:25SPEAKER_01: Love that.
- 1:07:26SPEAKER_01: That is a that is a really easy line to hit, especially if he catches one seam route or something down the field.
- 1:07:33SPEAKER_01: That that's a one one catch in in cash kind of kind of line right there.
- 1:07:38SPEAKER_01: So I like that.
- 1:07:40SPEAKER_01: My fourth pick is the Cowboys money line.
- 1:07:45SPEAKER_01: I obviously was pretty bullish on the Cowboys as a whole heading into this season.
- 1:07:50SPEAKER_01: I like the spot in this game.
- 1:07:52SPEAKER_01: Sunday night football, the Americas team on NBC.
- 1:07:56SPEAKER_01: I just think it's set up for Dak Prescott and the boys to come away with a win.
- 1:08:00SPEAKER_01: Give me the Cowboys money line.
- 1:08:04SPEAKER_00: I love that.
- 1:08:05SPEAKER_00: I love that.
- 1:08:06SPEAKER_00: Um, let's see.
- 1:08:07SPEAKER_00: Do I want to stick with props?
- 1:08:10SPEAKER_00: You know, let's um let's do that because I'm worried I'm gonna take one of your picks, so I'll stick with props here.
- 1:08:16SPEAKER_00: Um I'm gonna go with Malik Willis over 38 and a half rushing yards.
- 1:08:21SPEAKER_00: That is somewhat of a high line for a quarterback.
- 1:08:23SPEAKER_00: Um, but Malik Willis is that guy when it comes to rushing the football.
- 1:08:27SPEAKER_00: I don't have the exact stat in front of me, but it was something to the effect of I think it's every start but one, or maybe it was every start that he's ever had.
- 1:08:35SPEAKER_00: He's um gone over 40 rushing yards.
- 1:08:37SPEAKER_00: Wow.
- 1:08:38SPEAKER_00: And you know, the the Raiders defense, um, I mean it's fairly little improved from last year, but it's it's not something that scares me.
- 1:08:44SPEAKER_00: I think that's a good offensive environment in that game.
- 1:08:46SPEAKER_00: Um, and you and I kind of both talked about how we think the Dolphins are getting slipped on at least just a little bit.
- 1:08:52SPEAKER_00: I think Malik Willis really comes out and wants to show, like, yes, I am that guy that you can pay to be your franchise quarterback, and this is exactly how I'm gonna do it.
- 1:09:00SPEAKER_00: So I'm excited for what he's gonna do in Las Vegas.
- 1:09:03SPEAKER_01: I like that.
- 1:09:03SPEAKER_01: That's a fun one.
- 1:09:04SPEAKER_01: Um, that's definitely one to root for, too, since we're both on the Dolphins.
- 1:09:08SPEAKER_01: Uh my fifth pick, a game that I've already placed one pick for.
- 1:09:13SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna double dip a bit, and I'm gonna take the Lions and the Saints over 49 and a half.
- 1:09:20SPEAKER_01: I think that this game is a shootout.
- 1:09:22SPEAKER_01: It's on turf, it's in Detroit on that artificial turf.
- 1:09:27SPEAKER_01: I think both of these quarterbacks are gonna have good games.
- 1:09:31SPEAKER_01: I love both of these wide receiver rooms.
- 1:09:33SPEAKER_01: I love both of these running games between Travis Etienne or Travis A.
- 1:09:38SPEAKER_01: Chan, I should say, and Jameer Gibbs.
- 1:09:41SPEAKER_01: I think 49 and a half points might be 15 points too few in this game.
- 1:09:46SPEAKER_01: Give me the over 49 and a half for Detroit and New Orleans.
- 1:09:52SPEAKER_00: I like that a lot.
- 1:09:53SPEAKER_00: Like it like it so much that I had it written down as well.
- 1:09:56SPEAKER_00: Oh the double dip inspired me.
- 1:09:58SPEAKER_00: I think I'm gonna double dip as well in a different way.
- 1:10:00SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna go back to Terrence Ferguson and I'm gonna take over 17 and a half longest reception.
- 1:10:06SPEAKER_00: Ooh, for really the reasons we already said.
- 1:10:08SPEAKER_00: I mean, he's a guy that they'll look to hit him up the seam, they'll look to hit him in a variety of ways, not just a tight end check down by any means.
- 1:10:14SPEAKER_00: This is an athletic guy they want to get involved.
- 1:10:16SPEAKER_00: Um, I mean, heck, I think that hits the first drive.
- 1:10:19SPEAKER_00: Not even kidding.
- 1:10:20SPEAKER_01: Nice, that's awesome.
- 1:10:21SPEAKER_01: A little double dip for both of us.
- 1:10:23SPEAKER_01: Uh, this is a game that both of us kind of saw happening the same way.
- 1:10:28SPEAKER_01: Uh, that is the NFC East clash between the commanders and the Eagles.
- 1:10:33SPEAKER_01: I am on the commanders plus four and a half.
- 1:10:36SPEAKER_01: I know they're on the road, but for the reasons that we already mentioned, I like the commanders' position in this game.
- 1:10:43SPEAKER_01: I think most people will look at that line and take the Eagles, which just gives me the faith to take the commanders.
- 1:10:50SPEAKER_01: So I'm gonna take the commanders plus four and a half.
- 1:10:54SPEAKER_00: I like it.
- 1:10:55SPEAKER_00: I like it.
- 1:10:56SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna go um, you know what?
- 1:11:00SPEAKER_00: I do have another prop.
- 1:11:01SPEAKER_00: I do have another prop.
- 1:11:03SPEAKER_00: After this, I'm gonna go back to lines, but I one more prop to kick in.
- 1:11:06SPEAKER_00: A guy we mentioned we both like earlier, uh, Deshaun Stribling.
- 1:11:10SPEAKER_00: A little bit risky betting on a rookie in his first game, but I think his role is very real.
- 1:11:14SPEAKER_00: Um I think he's a very talented player.
- 1:11:17SPEAKER_00: I do expect him to be involved.
- 1:11:18SPEAKER_00: Not saying he's gonna have, you know, home run amazing game, but I don't need him to do that.
- 1:11:22SPEAKER_00: I just need him to go over 35.5 yards for Deshaun Stribling.
- 1:11:26SPEAKER_00: So I'm gonna take that.
- 1:11:27SPEAKER_01: I like that.
- 1:11:30SPEAKER_01: That is sneaky.
- 1:11:32SPEAKER_01: All right, so we each have two more picks left.
- 1:11:35SPEAKER_01: My next to last pick, um, before I give you a prop finally, is the Monday night football under.
- 1:11:44SPEAKER_01: This feels like a weekly occurrence that you just close your eyes, take the Monday night football under, especially when you consider the fact that both of these quarterbacks are coming back from injury.
- 1:11:56SPEAKER_01: Um, I mentioned that the Chiefs left tackle is out.
- 1:11:58SPEAKER_01: I I just think that this is gonna be a slower paced game.
- 1:12:02SPEAKER_01: The Chiefs like to lean into their defense when they're at home at night.
- 1:12:06SPEAKER_01: I like going under here.
- 1:12:07SPEAKER_01: Monday night football, two good defenses, two teams that know each other extremely well.
- 1:12:13SPEAKER_01: I'm taking the under 43 and a half on the premier Monday night football game of the season.
- 1:12:22SPEAKER_00: I like that a lot.
- 1:12:23SPEAKER_00: I like that.
- 1:12:24SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna go um I'm actually gonna go to you just took Jags first half, right?
- 1:12:32SPEAKER_01: Yep.
- 1:12:33SPEAKER_00: Okay, I'm gonna take full game.
- 1:12:34SPEAKER_00: Uh Jag's minus eight and a half um for really the exact reasons we teed up.
- 1:12:39SPEAKER_00: I think it's a great spot for them.
- 1:12:41SPEAKER_00: I just think they take care of the Browns easily.
- 1:12:43SPEAKER_01: Nice.
- 1:12:44SPEAKER_01: All right, we each have one more pick, and I'll finally give you a prop, Nate.
- 1:12:49SPEAKER_01: And I told you earlier when we talked about the first game of the season, the Patriots and the Seahawks, that I had a prop to come back to here.
- 1:12:57SPEAKER_01: We talked about uh the matchup between Christian Gonzalez and JSN.
- 1:13:03SPEAKER_01: One thing that we did not talk about is who is going to cover AJ Brown.
- 1:13:08SPEAKER_01: And the reason that I'm talking about this is because the Seahawks lost several members of their defense in free agency from their secondary.
- 1:13:16SPEAKER_01: Tariq Woolen is gone, Kobe Bryant is gone, both left in free agency, and Nick Emanwari, their star uh third year safety out of South Carolina, is injured and most likely will not play tomorrow night.
- 1:13:33SPEAKER_01: That means nobody, nobody that I trust is going to be over the top of AJ Brown.
- 1:13:39SPEAKER_01: AJ Brown might get that in two catches tomorrow night.
- 1:13:42SPEAKER_01: So I'm taking AJ Brown over 62 and a half receiving yards.
- 1:13:47SPEAKER_01: I also just think that the Patriots, and especially Drake May, he's suited to throw the ball downfield, and he didn't really have a guy that could do that last year.
- 1:13:57SPEAKER_01: I think he's just gonna be excited to play with his new toy.
- 1:14:00SPEAKER_01: So for all of those reasons, I'm taking AJ Brown over 62 and a half.
- 1:14:07SPEAKER_00: I love that.
- 1:14:08SPEAKER_00: Love AJB.
- 1:14:10SPEAKER_00: I'm a little conflicted on my last one.
- 1:14:12SPEAKER_00: Um you know, I've done enough props, so I'll leave those alone.
- 1:14:16SPEAKER_00: Um I'm gonna go with Bears minus two and a half.
- 1:14:20SPEAKER_00: Nice.
- 1:14:22SPEAKER_00: Two and a half lines typically give me some pause.
- 1:14:25SPEAKER_00: Not in this case.
- 1:14:26SPEAKER_00: I just again not just Luther Burden, but the Bears as a whole.
- 1:14:29SPEAKER_00: I'm a huge believer um in what they have and what they're about to do.
- 1:14:32SPEAKER_00: I think they handle business.
- 1:14:34SPEAKER_01: Yeah, to me, I I agree.
- 1:14:36SPEAKER_01: Usually you see a two and a half, especially on the road, and you get a little cautious, like, why is that home team only getting two and a half?
- 1:14:44SPEAKER_01: Like, it would make me nervous.
- 1:14:46SPEAKER_01: I just think this is one of those like double false negatives, you know, where Vegas almost tries to fake people out.
- 1:14:53SPEAKER_01: Like, oh, take the Panthers, take the Panthers, and the Bears are really the answer the whole time.
- 1:15:00SPEAKER_01: So, to recap, I'm on the Saints plus seven and a half, the Jets plus one and a half, the Jags first half minus four, Cowboys money line, Lions Saints over 49.5, Commanders plus four and a half, the Chiefs and the Broncos under 43.5, and AJ Brown over 62.5 yards.
- 1:15:22SPEAKER_01: Nate is on, Luther Burden over 56.5, Parker Washington over 53.5, Terrence Ferguson to go over 17.5 on his longest catch and to go over 22.5 yards for the game.
- 1:15:36SPEAKER_01: Malik Willis over 38.5 rushing yards, DeJon Stribling over 35.5 receiving yards, the Jags minus 8.5, and the Bears minus 2.5.
- 1:15:51SPEAKER_01: Wow.
- 1:15:52SPEAKER_01: We got a slate.
- 1:15:53SPEAKER_01: We we broke it all down.
- 1:15:55SPEAKER_01: Any last thoughts about week one?
- 1:15:58SPEAKER_01: Any anything we didn't address that you you gotta get off your chest while you're in the tailgate?
- 1:16:04SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I might as well.
- 1:16:06SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, there's there's some stat out there that I think Super Bowl champions are teams with the lowest odds to win the Super Bowl.
- 1:16:15SPEAKER_00: So in this case, preseason, the Rams.
- 1:16:17SPEAKER_00: Typically it doesn't work out for those teams.
- 1:16:19SPEAKER_00: There are some stat like 0 and 20 since that was since that was tracked.
- 1:16:23SPEAKER_00: I think this is the year that breaks.
- 1:16:25SPEAKER_00: No one's surprised to hear that for me.
- 1:16:26SPEAKER_00: I'm a huge huge Rams fan.
- 1:16:28SPEAKER_00: Um, but two things to look forward to this season.
- 1:16:30SPEAKER_00: I do think the Rams will make a long run in the playoffs and win the Super Bowl.
- 1:16:34SPEAKER_00: But like you said, man, this week one slate.
- 1:16:36SPEAKER_00: I'm so excited for this.
- 1:16:37SPEAKER_00: It's not often that I just think it pops off the page this much.
- 1:16:41SPEAKER_00: We got a lot of good football in front of us.
- 1:16:43SPEAKER_00: We got a great rookie class, and I'm just ready to watch some football, man.
- 1:16:47SPEAKER_01: Honestly, when I was putting the notes together today, I was gonna do eight games that we broke down in detail and eight games that we went through quick, and I had to sneak one more game in there.
- 1:16:58SPEAKER_01: So we ended up doing nine and seven.
- 1:17:00SPEAKER_01: I had to.
- 1:17:01SPEAKER_01: Like there were too many good games.
- 1:17:02SPEAKER_01: I just had to get one more in there.
- 1:17:04SPEAKER_01: I just had to for us.
- 1:17:06SPEAKER_01: I had to.
- 1:17:07SPEAKER_01: Uh well, all right, Nate.
- 1:17:09SPEAKER_01: I I appreciate you jumping in the tailgate.
- 1:17:11SPEAKER_01: As I always ask everybody before they leave the tailgate, did you enjoy your time, sir?
- 1:17:18SPEAKER_00: I had a great time, man.
- 1:17:19SPEAKER_00: You can count on me to come back anytime.
- 1:17:21SPEAKER_00: I love chopping it up, talking sports with you.
- 1:17:23SPEAKER_00: Um, really is nothing better.
- 1:17:25SPEAKER_01: That's awesome, man.
- 1:17:26SPEAKER_01: Well, I appreciate it.
- 1:17:27SPEAKER_01: Uh, excited to talk some football with you this weekend.
- 1:17:30SPEAKER_01: Meanwhile, oh yeah, Hunter Goodman just hit a home run against the Yankees.
- 1:17:38SPEAKER_01: That one out as a prop that breaking breaking news on the tailgate pod.
- 1:17:42SPEAKER_01: Um, so Nate, I appreciate you jumping in here.
- 1:17:45SPEAKER_01: Thank you so much, sir.
- 1:17:47SPEAKER_01: Yes, sir.
- 1:17:57SPEAKER_01: Well, that was great.
- 1:17:59SPEAKER_01: Getting to break down all of the week one games with our good friend Nate Smith in the tailgate.
- 1:18:04SPEAKER_01: Now, to wrap the show up with our gold star of the week, a guy that I mentioned at the start of this show, Kevin Jennings, the SMU quarterback.
- 1:18:14SPEAKER_01: He had 430 yards, second in all of college football this week, on the road at FSU, despite all of the distractions, the delays, the odd circumstances around this game.
- 1:18:28SPEAKER_01: Kevin Jennings, when it mattered most, kept answering the call.
- 1:18:33SPEAKER_01: Uh, they tied the game at 17, Kevin Jennings responded.
- 1:18:37SPEAKER_01: They tied the game at 24, Kevin Jennings responded.
- 1:18:41SPEAKER_01: He is the gold star of the week.
- 1:18:44SPEAKER_01: Congrats, Kevin Jennings.
- 1:18:46SPEAKER_01: Or what to watch for, if it wasn't obvious enough, the NFL is back.
- 1:18:51SPEAKER_01: And I'd be lying if I didn't tell you to go out and watch Travis Hunter, Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, Jacoby Myers, Brenton Strange, Beyshall Tutin, and Trevor Lawrence.
- 1:19:01SPEAKER_01: And that is not even naming everybody who's going to touch the rock for the Jags, Jags, Browns.
- 1:19:08SPEAKER_01: That is my what to watch for this week, in addition to the entire NFL slate, all of college football this week, and the border war.
- 1:19:18SPEAKER_01: Mizzou, Kansas, Friday night in Lawrence, 8 o'clock Eastern Time.
- 1:19:23SPEAKER_01: And then lastly, you UEFA Champions League returns on Thursday for group match play day one, loaded week, and UFC Noche this weekend.
- 1:19:37SPEAKER_01: If there's something for you and you can't find it this weekend, you don't know what you're looking for, you need to listen to the Tailgate Cam podcast.
- 1:19:45SPEAKER_01: I will tell you what to watch for.
- 1:19:47SPEAKER_01: On the next episode next week, we will react to all of the college football games from week two, all of the biggest upsets, movers, and shakers.
- 1:19:56SPEAKER_01: Thank you so much for listening to the Tailgate Cam podcast.
- 1:19:59SPEAKER_01: I am your host, Cameron Clark.
- 1:20:01SPEAKER_01: Please rate, review, comment, like, and subscribe.
- 1:20:04SPEAKER_01: Thanks so much for hanging out with us in the Tailgate.
- 1:20:07SPEAKER_01: See ya.