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WOMEN'S NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET PICKS | Filling Out the Women's Tournament Bracket · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN seven
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: It was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you above that. I
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: good day at all.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Own four that have not had a good season.
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: Man with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: slump continues.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: I've reached into pink. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: browins hat man, I don't know what is going on
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: with the bruins arch hape? Is that what it is?
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: I don't even know it's it's March ninth, I think
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: who even knows?
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Man, I don't know what data is anymore. I don't
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: after the worst day that I can possibly have, Back
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: with you as I always am until I die at
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did not
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: go well for me. Own five.
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: The worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: years doing this.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: To the slump series, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: point other than potentially end it all.
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you. This is
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: gonna be h toadstool sports. This is gonna be the
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: women's bracket. Then I'm gonna fill out here for the
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: NCAA tournament and the women's edition, which I have paid
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: zero attention to women's basketball all season. I know very
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: little about it. But we're gonna use a game theory approach.
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: I got some tools at my disposal. This is the
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: first time I'm really even looking at the bracket. It
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: just came out last night. I put more work into
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: the men one, obviously, but this one, the women's one.
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: You know, I just say whatever, kind of fuck it
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: and just fill it out kind of fast. But the
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: approach is the same, where if you see me do brackets,
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: I try to find what the public pick percentages are,
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: who's picking what, try to find spots where you actually
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: have leverage against the public and the odds actually are
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: better than what the public thinks in a certain direction
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: by a significant amount or whatever the case may be,
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: go with that instead. Try to find spots to do that.
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: And usually it does get really really chalky, and the
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: women's it looks like the men's is headed in that.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Direction as well. But you know, that's the way that
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: it is.
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: You want to find ways to differentiate your bracket from
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: the public.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: And we're saying, like, probably you know the technique that
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: I use.
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: I mean, how conservative you want to be with this
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: technique should kind of depend on the size of your pool. Like,
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: if you're only playing up against, like, you know, thirty
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: forty fifty people, you can be more conservative with it.
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: If you're trying to beat thousands and thousands of people,
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: then you want to try to like pick more upsets.
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: I just it's just, man, I mean, there just isn't
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: really that much upset potential usually, though again, I have
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: the odds up now, I haven't looked at any of
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: this yet, so I'm gonna look at betting odds here,
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna look at I have what was formerly team rankings.
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: Is this still kind of is, but now pool genius
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: kind of took it over.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: They have.
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: They're like the only place where you can really kind
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: of get the public pick percentages.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: I'm guessing ESPN stop posting them because of Pool Genius.
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: Probably because Pool Genius is like, no, you got to
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: pay us to get all these numbers. They usually think
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: a combination of Yahoo, ESPN whatever.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: I know, we haven't really.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: Uh, you know, let the numbers kind of percolate, but
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: you know, I don't really care as much with the women's.
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna let it happen for the men's so that
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: the public pick percentages have a few days to happen
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: because a lot of people haven't filled out their brackets. Yeah,
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: but with the women's I'm just gonna say fuck it
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: and just do it.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: So that's what we're doing here. I do recommend Pool Genus.
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: I don't think it costs that much to have the
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: like kind of standard. I've had it for so long,
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: I honestly don't remember what it costs. It's some yearly amount.
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: I forget what it is. And you can get like
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: they give you NFL picks in the package as well,
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: bracket picks.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: I actually don't the only thing I even use it
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: for is this is to find the public pick percentages really, like,
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: I don't know, It's just something that I have. You
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: can pay them more.
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: If you want, like actual betting picks and stuff, which
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: I don't do. Like I basically just use it for
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: like the pool stuff. But I don't even use it
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: for that either. I don't know why I still have
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: it other than the fact that you know, I'll use
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: it from time to time just because I'm interested to
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: see what they have to say about it. But you've
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: seen what I do with my like NFL and stuff.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: I use situational stuff and not really analytics completely for
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: my you know, betting and whatever.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: But for brackets it's a little bit different.
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: This is why a lot of betters don't like doing brackets,
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: because you have to think completely differently, Like you do
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: have to kind of use analytics, and you have to
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: go with the fact that you don't even know like
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: what some what matchups might happen, you know what I mean,
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: So like you can't really start predicting like hype pathetical matchups,
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: like you need to compare the odds that based on
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: the like really the analytics are the only way you
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: can really figure it out besides, I guess kind of
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: the betting futures odds, which of course that is what
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: I use for like the men's tournament I did last year.
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: I'll figure out what I want to do for it
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: this year.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: But the what was I gonna say?
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: But yeah, like you need to find some way of
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: figuring out, like what do you, like, what are the
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: real odds for this team to get to a certain
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: point of betting odds? You know, of course the betting
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: is a little bit skewed towards what the public is
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: going to be picking whatever, so maybe those aren't really
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: the best things to use.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: So maybe analytics really are kind of the best.
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: But the analytics, you know, won't take into account injuries necessarily.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: It's stuff like that.
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: So you got to kind of figure out, like which
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: way is you know, the best approach for you and whatever.
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: I'm rambling though, but you want to take what those
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: percentages are compared to what people are actually picking and
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: find spots where there's just a difference between those two.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Let's get into it.
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: And if you see me do my brackets, you know
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: that the first thing you want to do is pick
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: your champion. So I don't go through the bracket. Oh,
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: Yukon's gonna win this game whatever. Of course, yes, I
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: think they're gonna win against Utsa, who is the last
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: team in I believe Utsa somehow pulled off some ridiculous
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: upset in their tournament. Like I don't even think, Yeah,
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: I was gonna say I thought they didn't even have
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: a winning record.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: They do, But Yukon, by.
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: The way, is a fifty four and a half point
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: favorite in this game.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: You want to lay those points.
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: So you know, like there's still like so little parody
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: in the women's game. It's insane, but you know, like
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: you'll never see numbers like that anyway. People probably don't
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: even realize that reds like that exist, but they do
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: in the women's So first thing you want to do
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: is pick the champion. You want to go backwards. You
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: don't want to go through all these matchups. Oh, this
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: team's gonna win this matchup.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: Then you get a hypothetical matchup in the next round,
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: this team's gonna win that.
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: No, what do you want to do is who's picking
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: whom to win the whole thing? And you want to
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: see what the actual odds are and find the best,
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: like disparity there, but also combined with what is the
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: actual percentage?
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: So man, excuse me.
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: All right, so obviously everybody's picking Yukon here, but like,
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: to what extent are people picking Yukon. Well, it looks
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: like forty six point one percent of pickers on ESPN
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: are picking them right now, thirteen point one percent are
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: picking UCLA, twelve point six picking South Carolina, who have
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: been the dominant team I think over the last couple
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: of years in the women's basketball, but not now. Then
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: there's a pretty big drop off to Texas at eight
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: point two, LSU three point three, and so on. You know,
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: Yukon is definitely gonna be a heavy favorite to win
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: this thing. And if you look at the odds to
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: win the national championship up, I'm looking at men's right now.
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: Hang on, wait what, oh, I guess for the women's
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: they don't have all the odds. I'm looking at fan
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: duel here. Maybe I'm not allowed to even say, fan
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: I wanted to see, like what the odds were for
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: each particular game, but I'm gonna bring in some like dude,
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: Like for the men's you can see the odds to
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: reach each round for the women's. I don't think any
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: of the sportsbooks really do that. So you have to
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: kind of fly by the seat of your pants here
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: a little bit. But let's find the We want to
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: find the futures here were they got to have futures?
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Right? No?
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: They must, well, I guess they don't, Uh, national champion,
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: that's gonna be the men's unless oh, here's the women's
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: all right, So Yukon is minus two seventy to win
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: the whole thing, then UCLA plus five hundred Texas plus
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: eight fifty is interesting because people are really not picking
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: Texas to a high degree and their third you know,
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: in odds to win the whole thing, South Carolina nine
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: to fifty and so on, Yukon minus two seventy.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Though, I mean.
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: That that equates to like a heavy favorite, like more
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: than fifty percent, obviously, And you know my tool over here,
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: you know, I don't want to give it away all
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: pool genus A secrets, but they do have Yukon winning
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: a majority of the time, more than fifty percent. They
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: actually have Texas with the second best odds. So what
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: I want to do, So we're gonna pick Yukon to
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: win the whole thing. Man, even though everybody's doing it.
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: We're gonna try to differentiate our bracket elsewhere. But I
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: think there is actually still value in picking Yukon to
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: win the whole thing. I'll figure out the time breaker. Well,
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: how many points will be scored in the championship game.
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know how many points gets scored in a
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: typical women's game. I have no idea one twenty five.
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: I don't know, because it's lower scoring than the men's
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: and it's a championship game, so it should be low scoring.
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: But yeah, so not even like you know, people like
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: have a tendency to like try to make wild picks
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: in March madness, you know what I mean. So Yukon
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: is a pretty heavy favorite, Like based on the betting onds,
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: Yukon is gonna win this thing like well over fifty
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: percent of the time, and they're not even being picked
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: fifty percent of the time. So we're going with Yukon
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: here to win the whole thing. Then it seems like
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: hopefully Texas is on the other side of the bracket.
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: They are, so we're gonna want to take Texas all
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: the way to thechampionship game here because nobody's picking them.
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: You know, they're the fourth most pick team. It looks
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: like everybody's taking Ucla here on the right hand side
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: for the most part, so we're gonna differentiate our bracket
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: that way. I think we actually have leverage with taking
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: Texas to get there because more people are picking UCLA.
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: And if you look at the odds, I have the
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: odds up for like you know, basically the odds to
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: win the whole thing Texas. As you can see there,
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: they have the third best odds to win the championship.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: Let me see which is behind UCLA, but not by
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: that much.
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: And let me see here looking at pool Genius here, well,
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: we want to see the odds to make the championship game.
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: Let's see Pool Genius will tell you these odds, and
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: Yukon is an overwhelming favorite to get there. But according
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: to them, they actually have Texas having better odds to
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: make the championship than UCLA does, which is very interesting.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: So I don't know why the.
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: Like the odds to win the whole thing are different
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: than that, which is really really interesting.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: So I don't know why that is the case.
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: I don't know if there are like injuries going on,
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: but UCLA is being picked like overwhelmingly more than Texas is.
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: So yeah, we're gonna go with Texas. I think to
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: do this, maybe it just has to do with, like,
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: you know, the path or something to get that far.
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: But I don't even know if that's the case, because
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: I don't know Pool Genius.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Their odds look like they're.
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: Way way different, but they're basically telling you that UCLA
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: is a massive negative leverage play and Texas is a
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: high leverage play, which is what I thought anyway looking
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: at you know how people are picking.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: So yeah, we'll do it. We'll take Texas to the championship.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: Where are we going here?
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: There they are, so we're gonna have them losing to
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: Yukon in the final here, all right? Then we got
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: to fill out the other final fours here South Carolina
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: and UCLA or the others. We might wind up putting
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: them in the final four, but I'm gonna have to see,
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: like what are the odds there, Like, I don't know
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: how Texas seems to have better odds according to Pool
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: Genus analytics, at least to make the final there. Let's
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: see to make the final four, South Carolina is an
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: overwhelming favorite to win their region. It looks like, so
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: I know everybody's picking them, We're just gonna do it anywhere.
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: It looks like they're like over seventy percent to make
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: the final four. So we are gonna take South Carolina
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: to the final four. I don't really see any value
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: in fading them there. I mean, even if you look
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: at like pretty much everybody is picking them there eighty
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: six percent.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I think.
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: The real odds for them to make it are like
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: seventy something percent. But I'm not gonna fade like an
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: overwhelming favorite like that when you don't really have to.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: So we're gonna do that. And then the other region
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: is where UCLA is.
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: It probably is gonna be UCLA, but we're knocking them
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: out a little bit earlier than everybody else's. They are
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: only really a slight favorite. They're actually negative leverage to
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: even make the final four. It looks like they in
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: LSU's region. LSU looks like they're like just a little
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: bit lower than fifty to fifty to make it to
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: the uh they are? Yeah, that's interesting. Yeah, you know,
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: what what.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: Are the odds? Real? Dude?
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: I want to see the actual odds like to make
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: the fin I wonder if I can find like the
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: actual betting odds here women's odds to make Final four.
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna look right now. Maybe I can find some
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: other like analytics on this, because it seems crazy to me.
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: It looks like basically it's a toss up between Yeah,
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I can find that here. Maybe
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: I can find like a different analytics site. Uh, I
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: mean obviously, I know, like I can find like ken
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: Bomb and stuff like that.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: Oh, we have her hoop stats. Let's see what does
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: this site say.
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: I'll bring this up in my because I'm you know,
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna have any like paid stuff here. I'll
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: bring it up over in my window here. Let's say, Uh,
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: that didn't work, I guess, did it?
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: No, it didn't.
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: Let's just bring it up anyway. There it is all right.
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: Let me see here bracketology. Well, I wanted to see,
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: like I was hoping that they had odds like for each.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: Team to you know, um, yeah, I don't know.
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: I thought they would have odds to like, let's see
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: full bracket. No, that's not what I want.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I wanted to see if they have
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: odds for like each team to make the whole thing.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: I guess they do not, I don't know.
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: Hold on, I'm gonna see if I can find something
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: else real quick here, um women's bracket analytics. Because I
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: don't think like you know, the typical guys. I don't
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: think like Ken Palm or any anything anybody like that
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: does the women's I could be wrong, though, let me
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: see real quick here. Yeah, I know I'm wasting some
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: time here, but yeah, it looks like, you know, it
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: looks like there might be a value play here on
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: on LSU.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: Over U c l A. Here.
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: Let me see U c l A is like a
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: one lost team. Uh so it looks like a lot
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: of people are picking them here. I mean we've already
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: kind of taken a stand against them though by going with.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: Let me see, yeah.
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: Like LSU is still like a top five team, like
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: looking at the rankings and stuff. So I mean we've
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: already kind of taken a stand against UCLA by putting
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: Texas in the championship. You know, we could get a
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: little bit crazier and go with LSU to make the
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: I mean that's not that crazy, to be honest. And
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: LSU they do have a good history as well, you
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: know what, whatever, let's do it.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: We'll take LSU to make the final four here and
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: lose to Texas.
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: So we have three one seeds and one you know,
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: other one seed. But we will take Ucla to make
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: the Elite eight. We're not gonna go like completely insane here,
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: you know, whoops, LSU is what I want to yet
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: there we go. But we will have UCLA making the
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: Elite eight. Like, I don't think there's any real value
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: in fading them to get that far, but it looks like,
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: you know, there is some real high leverage there, and
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: taking them to make the final four as like close
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: to a coin flip there. So we're doing that to
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: make the Elite eight. Yukon, Ucla, Texas, LSU, South Carolina
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: all overwhelming favorites. Michigan is a really high like, Michigan
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: is favored to get there as well as a two seed,
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: So we're not gonna overthink it too much.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: We will take Michigan to get there. It looks like
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: pretty much everybody is. But I don't really see a
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: reason to not do that because we've already differentiated some
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: of our highest value picks a bit. So I will
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: take Michigan to get there as well, then we have
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: to fill out the other Elite eight games. So basically,
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: who's Yukon gonna play in the Elite eight? Vanderbilt is
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: the two seed in that region. Let me see here, Yeah,
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're more of a coin flip.
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: To get there, though.
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: It looks like, you know, Ohio State's a little bit
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: less though to make it there. Let me yeah, I
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: don't know, man, I'm trying to find like, like where's
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: the like, you know, Ohio State is a very very
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: high leverage play to do that though. Yeah, Like Vandy
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: is like a massive, like negative leverage play to be
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: honestet to get there. Yeah, you know, I mean I
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: don't know, should we differentiate ourselves a little bit further
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: and go with, uh, we could go with Ohio State
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: to get there, that's like the other option here.
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: Let me see, I wonder what the like power ratings
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: guys have on this.
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: I feel like I'm like overthinking this too much now
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: because they usually just go with kind of who's the
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: better team. Yeah, I mean, Ohio State is not that
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: far down to the power ratings from Vandy. By the way,
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: I will point out that in the earlier rounds, like
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: some of the higher seeds will like host some of
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: these games.
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: By the way, you know what, let's do it.
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: We'll take Ohio State to the Elite eight there and
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: then let's see here, and then we need the other
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: Elite eight team, which would be either it looks like
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: Iowa is being overpicked a lot, and then it looks
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: like TCU actually is it. Iowa and TCU are the
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: in the same region. It looks like TCU actually has
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: better odds to make it than Iowa. Iowa's still riding
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: the Caitlin Clark phenomenon in there. So yeah, actually we'll
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: take TCU to make the Elite eight as well there.
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: So two three is working their way into the Elite
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: eight there, a little bit higher leverage there. But of course,
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: you know, again we're not gonna be like totally insane here.
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: We're gonna take Vandy, you know, to match up against
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: Ohio State there, and we will take Iowa to get
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: to the Sweet sixteen.
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: There as well.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: We're not gonna be like totally crazy about it again here.
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: You know, I'm just looking for again, like the leverage
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: spots here real quick here, which I'm not showing the
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: actual pool genius numbers, just because you know it's a
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: paid product, so you know they should sponsor me.
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: Man, all right, you can look.
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: And see like their you know, their odds per round.
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: But I'm gonna try to do this crazier for the
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: men's though. Man, all right, So odds to make the
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: Sweet sixteen, there are some teams that are just overwhelming favorites.
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: All the one seeds are, it looks like, let me see,
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: all the two seeds basically are as well. Yes, all
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: the two seeds are well over seventy percent. The three seeds,
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: we already have a couple of them in there, with
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: Ohio State and TCU we already picked to get there.
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: It looks like Duke and Louisville are very high percentage
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: chances to make the Sweet.
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: Sixteen as well.
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: Probably everybody has them, but we're not gonna be stupid
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: about it. We will take those teams to get there
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: as well. Let's figure this out here. Wait a minute,
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: what do we do here? We have South Carolina there,
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: let me see, where's where's Duke at? What region are
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: they in? I don't even see that. I don't know
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: the I'm not familiar with the layout of this bracket.
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: All seeh we're taking Duke to the Sweet sixteen.
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: And then what did I say? The other team was Louisville.
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: All right, so we'll take Louisville.
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: There as well. They're both very heavily favored to get there.
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: Then what else do we got here? Which means, of
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: course I'm not even analyzing the first round matchups. It
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: looks like to make the Sweet sixteen, Oklahoma is a.
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: Huge favorite to make it as well as a four seed.
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: Minnesota is quite high as well, and then there's a
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: bit of a drop off with West Virginia North Carolina.
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: Looks like Oklahoma and Minnesota are very heavy favorites to
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: make it, So we will go with those two teams.
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: Let me see, even though I'm only using one site.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: To do this. So what did I say? I said, Oklahoma,
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: they at as a four seed. Let me see, So we'll.
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: Have Oklahoma making the Sweet sixteen against South Carolina. And
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: then the other one I said was Minnesota. I think
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: I said, so we're gonna have them make making the
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: Sweet sixteen against UCLA.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: All right, let me see.
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: Yes, Then then we have some decisions to make because
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: West Virginia by the way those are actually high leverage
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: plays as well. There looks like people are not picking
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: those teams as highly as maybe they should be. It
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: looks like West Virginia as a fore seed is actually
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: being underpicked as well.
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: Let me look at the who's picking oom here?
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: So looking at this bracket, I mean, no surprise, they
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: all got Louisville making it there. It looks like everybody's
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: picking Kentucky over West Virginia. But according to pool genius, yeah,
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: West Virginia would actually be favored to make it through
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: against them, So there's actually leverage in taking the fore
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: seed there, West Virginia.
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: So we're gonna do that. Let me see where are
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: they at?
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so we'll take West Virginia to match up against
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: Texas there for that Sweet sixteen play.
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: Then let me see here.
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: Uh yeah, So I mean again, a lot of people
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: have Iowa, like I said, getting to the play South
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: Carolina and we're flipping that, or we're taking TCU and
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: then we're actually taking LSU to actually bounce UCLA, which
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: is we'll see how it works out, man, We'll see
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: if we can get some extra points that way, but
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: we'll see. And then we got let me say, what
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: else is like, oh, the other Sweet sixteen. Yeah, Oklahoma
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: is being picked sixty five percent of the time, but
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: it looks like they're believe it or not, a higher
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: percentage than that to get to the Sweet sixteen.
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: And uh, Minnesota.
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: It looks like Minnesota is basically a fifty to fifty
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: with Old miss there, which is actually being underpicked.
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: They're being picked slightly.
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: Less than fifty percent of the time by the public,
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: So we're definitely going to that.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: But then North Carolina is an interesting one.
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: Where they're being picked sixty three percent of the time
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: to get to.
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: The Sweet sixteen.
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: But according to Pool Genus et cetera, North Carolina is
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: actually a slight underdog to make it there versus Maryland.
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: So I usually I do have one.
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: Usually I do at least one have one five seed
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: getting through over a four seed. Sometimes I have two
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: in the women's bracket. But this is gonna be one
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: where it looks like there's a nice switch that we
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: can make here where we get leverage on Maryland, who
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: actually looks like they'd be the favorite over North Carolina.
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: So we'll take Maryland to make the Sweet sixteen against
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: Yukon and again, I know nothing about these teams except
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: I know that Yukon is undefeated and they're just a
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: monster this year.
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: And I know that. I think again, Ohio, I think.
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: Iowa and South Carolina are kind of riding, you know
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: what they were doing previous years. And then, although we
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: do love South Carolina getting into the final four, and
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: then I think.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: The only other thing I.
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: Know is that that really really overweight young lady is
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: on the Iowa State. There Where the hell is Iowa state?
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: They got to be in here somewhere right, Crooks is
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: their name, you know what I'm talking about, very very
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: big girl. They must be in here right, Like she's
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: good enough to the I was gonna say she's good
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: enough to carry them. The team definitely can't carry her.
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: They're in is an eight seed, which is okay. Uh,
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: they're probably gonna get dropped by Yukon almost immediately if
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: they make it there. We'll see if we're gonna pick
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: Iowa States even win a game. I don't know yet. Okay, Now,
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: actually that's where we're at because we already we already
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: have our sweet sixteen picked now, so uh, the only
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: thing we have left is to pick the opening round
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: games here and some of them there are of course
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: playings that haven't happened yet, but we can look at
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: the betting odds for some of these.
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: So we'll look at the odds for the Iowa Iowa
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: the odds for Iowa State.
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: Let's see, I was it is a seven and a
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: half way favorite over Syracuse, so we're not gonna be stupid.
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: We'll we'll pick them in that game to beat Syracuse.
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: I thought they were actually better than that because Crooks
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: is actually good.
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: Then we gotta pick UNC in Western Illinois.
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: I mean, I would assume UNC is a huge favorite.
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: They're twenty six and a half, so we're not gonna
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: be stupid there either.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: We will pick UNC to beat well Western Illinois. There.
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: Notre Dame in Fairfield, the six elevens could be a
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: little bit more interesting. Maybe Notre Dame is a double
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: digit favorite as well, ten and a half. So again
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: we're just we're not being stupid here, you know, unless
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: we have like a toss up situation, we're gonna pick
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: these bigger favorites seven tens. We could have some interesting
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: stuff here Illinois and Colorado.
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: Let's see what's going on with that Illinois is only.
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: A three and a half boy favorite. Uh, let's see
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: how many people are picking Illinois about sixty seven percent. Yeah,
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: I mean they're not really being picked overwhelmingly. I'll pick
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: them as well. I mean they are favored, but you know,
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: if you wanted to try to get some you know,
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: some extra points and go with Colorado, I'm not gonna
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: beat you up over that.
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: All right, let's go down. Let's go over to the
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: regional two.
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: I guess here because Ucla, I assume Yukon's the overall
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: one seed, and then the overall two seed usually is
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: over here on the right like in the men's So
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: I think Ucla is the number two.
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: So we'll go over here.
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: Look at Oklahoma State and Princeton. Oklahoma State's a seven
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: and a half way favorite. So again, we're not gonna
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: be stupid. Maybe it's interesting to see, like, yeah, Oklahoma
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: State's only being picked fifty eight percent of the time,
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: so they're actually being underpicked basically the fact they're actually
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: a seven and a half way favorite, So that's pretty
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: obvious they were taking Oklahoma State there.
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: You know, it's kind of interesting to see, like.
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: Who's picking whom, Like a lot of people are picking
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: Iowa State, but you know, I mean they're a big
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: favorite there as well. Everybody's picking North Carolina and in
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: fact they're picking them too far. But we're bouncing them
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: after they win one game. Okay, what else do we
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: have going on in this region? We have to pick
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: Ole Miss and good Zaga. You think of good Zaga
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: as having a big name, you know, in both women's
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: and men's. But there are a twelve seed but that
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: doesn't really mean everything. But let's see what are the
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: odds on that. I'm guessing Old Miss must be favored here. Yeah,
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: they're fourteen and a halfway favorites. So again, we're not
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: gonna be dumb, you know, we'll just take the favorite there,
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: you know, should we should get, you know, just get
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: the points that everybody else is getting.
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: Basically, you know, when you have a huge favorite like that.
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: But we are bouncing Ole Miss before a lot of
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: people are by knocking them out. With Minnesota, it seems like,
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: you know, some people, yeah, don't like Minnesota's much.
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know why that is.
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: But and Minnesota is actually a heavier favorite in the
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: first round of twenty two and a half. So also
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: I wonder what Maryland is. Maryland's thirty one and a half.
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: So it looks like we are kind of doing you know,
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: the right thing by picking some of those teams to
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: make the Sweet sixteen. There, Okay, what are the games
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: we need to pick? We got to pick Baylor versus
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: the winner of the play in between Nebraska and Richmond,
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: which we won't have the odds on that yet. It
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: looks like Nebraska is a four and a half way
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: favorite of a Richmond, so they'll probably win that game,
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: which would mean Baylor would be up against the winner
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: of that. Sometimes these playing games, man, because the you know,
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: we might be able to find some leverage there, because
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: people will just pick the team that's not in the
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: play in, you know what I mean, ninety one percent
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: of people are picking Baylor. So we got to try
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: to figure out, like, what are the odds gonna be
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: on Baylor to make it there?
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: Right, so we can look at you know, pool genius.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: Again, he actually has Baylor being an underdog against the
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: winner of that first round matchup.
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: That's crazy.
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: And sometimes the playing games, like I said that, when
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: that team has you know, a game under their belt,
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: they can actually you know, have the momentum and do well.
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: So ninety one percent of people are picking Baylor, and
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: it looks like they are gonna be an underdog potentially
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: in this game.
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: Probably if Nebraska wins. It looks like they will be.
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna look at some of the power ratings real
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: quick for women's ball and just see here, like, is
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: Baylor like not good?
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: Let me see.
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: Massey not Thomas Massey. Massey has them twenty first in
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: the country. Where does he have Nebraska? He's got Nebraska
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: thirty fifth, so I mean that would be kind of
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: a toss up ish and then Richmond is fifty fourth,
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: so Richmond obviously is worse than Nebraska.
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: But that's interesting that I don't know.
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: I don't know what's going on with Baylor there, but
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: all right, we'll try to get some leverage there and
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: we'll take the play and winner there over Baylor.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: Then we have Texas Tech and Villanova.
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: Let me see, that's interesting because Texas Tech is only
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: a one and a half point favorite. So who's picking
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: whom in this game? That's it's like a toss up game.
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: It looks like sixty five percent of people are taking
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: Texas Tech. So we're gonna flip the switch on that
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: one too. We'll take Villanova as the ten seed there
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: as they're a very small underdog in that game, so
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: there might be a little bit of an advantage there
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: because Texas Tech is being a little bit overpicked there. Okay,
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: going down to the I guess we'll go to the
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: bottom right, Regional three, Oregon Virginia Tech. Oregon's a four
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: and a half point favorite. Probably will just pick them.
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's a decent sized favorite. They're being picked
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: sixty four percent of the time, which is really not overwhelming.
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: In fact, I think they're actually being underpicked a little bit.
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: So we will take Oregon there. Let me say then, Kentucky.
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: We'll take Kentucky over James Madison.
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: I assume, yeah, they're seventeen and a half way favorite
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: because we did already bounce Kentucky with West Virginia, who
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: are twenty seven and a half boy favorites by the way,
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: over Miami, Ohio our favorite. Alright, let's yeah, we'll take
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: Kentucky to win that one game. Let's see Miami. I
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: don't know what's going on with that program this year, man,
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: but uh or that school, but both basketball teams getting
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: in and they're both gonna lose right away.
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: No, I don't know.
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: The women's I think definitely will all right, Alabama Rhode
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: Island six or eleven matchup here. Alabama is a ten
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: and a half way favorite. So again, we'll just take them.
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: They're being picked eighty nine percent of the time, but
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: still huge favorite. Will take them, you know, don't throw
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: away points, you know what I mean when you don't
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: really have to?
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: Let me see.
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: And then NC State is being picked fifty seven over Tennessee.
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: The lady volunteers, man, what happened to them? Like, you know,
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: they're usually a good program. I know back in the
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: day when they had what was her name, Pat Summit.
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: I know she's no longer with us, I don't think,
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: but yes, let me see here.
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: Tennessee. Let's see, maybe Tennessee is a value player.
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: They're only two and a half point dogs here. That's
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: a tough call. That's a really tough call. NC State
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: is basically being picked like pretty much the right percentage
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: of the time there, fifty seven percent.
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: What does that equate to?
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: You know, yeah, this is I mean, we don't want
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: to overthink it because you know, it's only a first
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: round matchup.
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: I guess we'll take the favorite NC state.
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: There's a possibility, you know, if I look, I'm gonna
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: look closer to game time and see if the odds moved,
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: just to see where the money actually came in, and
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: that that one I might change, But you know, I'm
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: not gonna change anything else, probably in this bracket, all right,
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: and then we'll go to the final region.
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: Here we have.
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: Clemson in USC and by the way, of course I
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: ignored you know, a lot of these lower seeds here,
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: ignored the sixteen seed play ins and whatever, because by
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: the way, the women's expanded to having that first four
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: later than the men's did. They used to not do that. Anyway,
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: let's figure this out. Clemson in USC, the winner of
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: which will.
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: Lose to South Carolina. I'm most likely clem's.
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: USC excusely is a five and a half boy favorite
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: in that one, and US seems being picked sixty three
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: percent of the time, so they're actually maybe even being
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: a little bit underpicked.
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: So we will take USC. It looks like people do.
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: Know that they're the better team even though they're the
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: nine seed. So we do have a nine seed winning
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: that game there possibly was that the only nine seed
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: that I picked or not that I care, but well,
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: it's just kind of interesting to know. Yeah, I've only
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: picked one nine seed, but that's just the way that
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: it worked out. The Michigan State, I assume, will be
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: a favorite over Colorado State. Yeah, they're nineteen and a
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: half boy favorites, so we will take them as well, obviously.
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: And then we are bouncing them already with Oklahoma, who
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: are thirty five and a half boy favorites in their
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: first game women's basketball.
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: Even though Oklahoma is being picked by a majority, I said,
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: they're still being under picked. Then we got a six
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: eleven Washington and South Dakota State. South Dakota State seems
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: to have a good women's program, not that I really
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: know anything, but Washington is a six and a half
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: point favorite. They're being picked eighty one percent of the time,
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: which you know is maybe a little bit overpicked.
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: But I'll still pick the favorite there.
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: I'm not really gonna overthink, and I don't really have
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: a tendency to fade favorites like that in brackets like this.
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: And then Georgia is gonna play a ten seed play
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: in between Virginia and Arizona State. I mean that could
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: have a tendency to get a little bit wild.
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: Arizona. Let me see, where's Arizona State at.
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: So, Virginia is a two and a half point favorite
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: against Arizona State. There, I'm gonna look at what old
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: Massy has to say with his ratings.
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: He has Georgia thirty third in the country, which is
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: not that great to be honest. Virginia he has fiftieth,
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: so that's also not very good. Arizona State must be
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: worse than that. Then where's Arizona State? Actually he has
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: Arizona State four seventh. All right, well we'll just see
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: what good old you know pool genius has to say
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: about this. Uh, to make the round of thirty two.
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: Georgia is being picked eighty five percent of the time
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: basically according to this and they're negative twenty two percent leverage.
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: There are only sixty three percent chances to win that
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: game against whoever gets out of that matchup. So you know,
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: it is a pretty negative leverage play to take Georgia
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: in this one. Because of course, again people fill out
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: the bracket and they don't pick the playing team. You know,
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: eighty five percent of people are picking Georgia, So you know,
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: if you want a little bit of leverage there, you
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: could take, you know, the underdog. I don't know if
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: I want to really though, because you know, sixty something
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: percent favorite. I usually just do pick the favorite there,
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: even though it is pretty bad negative leverage there. I mean,
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: if you want to take the winner of the play
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: in there, you could definitely do it. The other one
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: that I did seems like they're.
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: Actually gonna be potentially a favorite.
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: Uh in the other one against Where's the other one
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: that I picked? The one that I did pick, I
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: mean I picked a Baylor to get bounced against Nebraska
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: and Richmond.
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: We don't have a.
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: Britney grinder there anymore on Baylor, man, so I don't
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: think they have a man playing for them now.
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: So that's it. My bracket's done. There you go. We
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: have Yukon winning the whole thing.
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: Over Texas in the final four, and then you know,
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: I'm bouncing UCLA before basically everybody else. And that's the
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: way that I'm differentiating this South Carolina and then LSU
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: making the final four instead of Duke or excuse me,
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: instead of u C.
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: L A. There but Lsu.
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: I mean, they've had a really good his recent history,
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: so I'm not you know, it's not like I'm like cringing,
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: you know at that decision. There there's your leverage on
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: women's bracket. Man, there you go, Yeah, I think that's
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: that's gonna do it. There you go about a about
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: a half hour for that. There, Charles, what's up, hottest
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: women's player? I don't know any of the I'm not
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna put the research into doing that.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: Not Crooks.
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: How about that Crooks loses that bracket? I don't, dude,
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: I don't know enough of the players. I'm sure there
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: are some that are hot, like Sophie Cunningham is that
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: she's in the WNBA now, But dude, I don't know
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: any of these players. I couldn't name one player besides Crooks.
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: I literally cannot name a single player in women's basketball
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: in college Yukon. I mean, they're undefeated this year and
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: they're a favorite to win this entire thing, so I'm
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: not going to pick against them, and in fact, they're
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: actually being underpicked as a championpick.
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: So we are going with that. But that's gonna do it?
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: Learn it.
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: Tone On Twitter, you know the deal, learn it tone
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: on Instagram. I gotta put out my videos for today
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: is crap, Like subscribe to the channel here because of
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: course I'm gonna do this type of thing with the
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: men's bracket, but.
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: You know, it'll be a little bit different.
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I want to use the betting
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: odds really for the men's but I mean I'll at
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: least use them as kind of a guide.
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: But I don't know. I mean, doing that.
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: Insane spreadsheet that I had last year is a little
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: bit crazy, you know, But we want to kind of,
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: I guess, compare the analytics to the betting odds to
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: try to like consolidate it that way at the very least.
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: But last year I feel like I kind of overdid
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: it with the spreadsheets.
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: We'll figure out what I want to do with the
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: men's when it happens.
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I.
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: Don't really have a whole lot else to say about that,
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: but yeah, subscribe and you'll get the notifications for that.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: Listen on audio.
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: I'll put the I'll probably put this on audio too, Apple, Spotify,
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: whatever review listen over there that helps me out. Covered
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: in yuke My yuke channel on YouTube checked out as well.
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: Patreon dot com, slash will learn to.
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: Toad you can support me there and Loser Cast will
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: be back tomorrow night with a new episode that's gonna
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: do it peace again for now, and I'll be back
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: tomorrow morning. We will have, uh, will break down whatever
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: games are being played tomorrow. We'll have some first four
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: actional that you kind of already know. My thoughts on
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: the first four games tomorrow. Don't know if I'm gonna
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: recommend to play on either one of those, and then uh,
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: there'll be NHL and NBA to discuss as well. And
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: I don't know when, like the other tournaments start, the
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: n I T and whatever those are starting soon as well.
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: Sometimes I jump into the n I T a little bit.
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: Usually I don't do a.
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: Whole lot with Then the Crown and whatever else. I
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: know one of the tournaments is gone, the CBC or
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: something I think is disbanded now or no, the CBC
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: is the Crown, So wait, which which one is gone?
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: Now?
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: I forget there was the n I T, the c
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: I T, and then there was one other one, whatever
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: that other one is, I think it's gone now.
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: I don't know that's gonna do it.
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: The n i T is also a little bit less
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: interesting now that a lot of the teams wind up
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: in the in the Crown Tournament instead. But you know
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: that I've seen the n i T bracket already. Auburn
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: actually accepted the invitation into it, So Auburn is actually
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: playing in it. A lot of teams rejected it, which
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: you know, it weakens the n team and a lot
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: of these teams just decide to not play in it.
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: But Auburn will be in it. And you know, if
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: teams decide to play into that ward, I mean, I'll
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: talk about it when it happens. So usually that team
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: that like just.
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: Missed out on the tournament, I usually want to fade
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: them in the it, especially when.
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: They're like a program.
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: It's usually you know, in there, like Auburn. Maybe I
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: will still want to fade them there. But if at
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: this point, with so many teams rejecting the invitation, if
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: a team is accepting it, that kind of tells you
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: they actually want to try to win the thing, you
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: know what I mean. And Auburn might actually be a
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: little bit angry and have a little bit to prove, like, hey,
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: we want to prove that we're actually better than people
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: think that we are, because they beginning shit on so
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: much recently, you know what I mean. So they're probably
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: a team that I'm not really wanting to jump in
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: and really fade in that first round matchup there they're
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: playing South that Willbama, I believe. Anyway, I'll talk about
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: it when we get to it. I'm probably not going
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: to break down every n Maybe I will.
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: We'll see, because I have to break down every tournament
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: game and Thursday Friday will be sixteen of them each,
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: I believe.
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: Is that the way that it works? Can I do math? Yeah?
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: I think so that's gonna do it. Peace for now, guys,
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: mm hm