Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

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UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: All systems going clear, the lift up? What is going on? Everybody?
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Hope you're having a good week. We are back talking
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: some fights, UFC Fight to night at the Apex this
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: weekend Apex. I mean it's a small cage usually some
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: more uh more action, which is good. I always like
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: the live crowd environment though, but I love to see
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: though thirteen fights fingers crossed we keep all thirteen and
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: we don't lose one because thirteen means usually pretty spread
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: out ownership, which I think will be the case this week.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: An interesting main event. I think it is Fatable again,
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: which has been the theme of a lot of cards recently.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Mike Malott, I believe was not on the winner last
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: week at eighty seven, So excited to dive into this
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: one with Big Marley. What's up, Gabriel, what's up? Allen?
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: What's up? Ysn Yeah? You are number one? Talk about
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: number one. The draft going on right now as well,
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: some NBA playoffs, some NHL playoffs you can just see
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: right above. But before I throw it to Big Marley, NBA,
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: PGA going on, MLB, MMA, NASCAR, and NHL. So all
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: this going on, you know what I'm going to get
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: the marketing out of the way right away. That's six
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: sports going on, a lot of action, a lot of
• 1:38
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• 1:50
  Speaker 1: You get all these sports, six sports going on nineteen dollars,
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• 2:01
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• 2:23
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• 2:25
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• 2:27
  Speaker 1: so much going on right now in the sports world,
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: which is a great time for us over here for DFS.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Let's go to MMA The Stone. As you can see
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: what you get in MMA. You get projections, ownership, Core Report,
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: GPP and cash for fanuel and DraftKings, slate plan, breaking
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: down all the fights, fight rankings, Big Marley breaking down
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: all the fights, tier rankings, upper tier, mid tier, lower tier,
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: and also an education video more education MMA. So you
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: get all that, and then The Stone shows everything you need.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Significant strikes per minute, the reach, the heights, what they
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: weigh in at, finishing odds, everything right there. It's been
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: long enough to bring you in, Big Marley, how were
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: doing this week? And yeah, thoughts on this card.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: I'm good and I think it's a I mean, I'm
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: not excited to watch this card, but I think it's
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: a great DFS card because there's no real clear targets
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: on real either side of the board. I think that
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: the main event will be popular because it's the main event,
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: but there's no clear spind ups that everyone's gonna want
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: to go to. And then I also don't think that
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: there's any clear underdogs aside from the ones that have
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: taken some action. But I'm excited for this one. I
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: think it's gonna be spread out. We could see solo
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: shipper on this one, and hopefully it's one of us.
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: There's somebody listening.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: Absolutely I agree, So Mikoy broad Slay before we go
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: fight by fight five of the thirteen fights expected to finish,
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: which is not too many, but two stand out minus
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: six hundred minus six hundred mid tier fights Fan Buceca
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: and then eighty seven hundred and seventy five hundred. That
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: is the only two to five stars Big Marley has
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: as well. Totally agree right there. Also in terms of favorites,
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: three big favorites, we'll talk about him all in a
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: row minus four hundred, Michelle minus six hundred, Filow minus
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: six hundred, Francis Marshall. Some of those have moved a
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: little bit since I put these up on Monday, but yeah,
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: three big favorites, otherwise pretty closely lined the rest of
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: the way. So I say we get right into it,
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: no time to waste thirteen fights. First fight of the
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: night going based on the stone bottom to top, Victor
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: Venezuela minus one forty taking on Max Griffin plus one
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: twenty plus one twenty for this fight to finish Venezuela
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: or balanceuel excuse me not Venezuela. Balenzuela plus two to
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: thirty five inside the distance, Griffin plus three forty, So
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: this fight opened to pick him minus one ten apiece.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Balanzuela now the favorites. He's also making his UFC debut
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: against the UFC VET Max Griffin, making his nineteenth walk
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: to the UFC Octa on, which is crazy to think
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: at forty years old. I will say he definitely looks
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: younger than forty. But what's up? Sights and I'm gonna
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: throw to you on this one. Balanzuela Griffin, how do
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: you see it?
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, not a fight that I love. I just think
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: that it's gonna be a kind of typical Max Griffin
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: fight where it's gonna be primarily a striking match. Both
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: of these guys are actually strikers, so I don't see
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: either one of them really looking to shoot for takedowns.
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: If either, I would guess that it's Griffin just because
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: he's the VET, gonna be the smarter guy. Valenzuela is
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: a striker, where he's gonna be the one throwing more heat.
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: He's gonna be the one wanting it more, I think.
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: But he's also fairly low volume two from what I saw,
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: and I think he's gonna be relying on a knockout
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: for him to pay off an eighty six hundred dollars
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: price tag, especially if he's gonna be on the optimal lineup.
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: So I don't really have too much interest in him,
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: but I do think he's in He's a he has
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: more first round knockout equity, so I think he is
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: in play if he's gonna be low owned and then
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: Max Griffin, I really don't want to click on him,
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: but he's just in play as another loan play, and
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: he is a veteran, He's been around, he's fought who
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: is who getting this rookie who has favored over him.
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: I think you could make him a slight favor here,
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: and I wouldn't complain about that line. I just don't
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: really like him for DFS. I think he could win
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: this fight and score fifty five points, and that's not
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: going to put him on the optimal lineup on this card,
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: I don't think so. Most likely Vevenezuela or pass for me,
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: but I like the past most.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: I totally agree with everything you said, I think it's
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: gonna stand on the feet more than likely for fifteen minutes. Now,
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: both guys do have power to shut the other one off.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: This fight opened plus one ten to finish now plus
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: one ten one plus one ten to plus one twenty
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: five to plus one twenty. But if it's minus yeah,
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: minus won fifty to go the distance, both guys have
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: knockout ability plus two thirty five plus three to fifty
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: isn't bad for individual inside the distance props. They're gonna
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: be low owned. They don't break the bank, so I
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: think Valenzuela is more likely to get a knockout. If
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: he does, I'll take a low owned shot. Eighty six hundred. Again,
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: only five of the thirteen fights are expected to finish.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: This could be a lower scoring card. If Griffin wins,
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: and if someone wrestles, I think it's Griffin. Just say
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: he wins and scores seventy six points. It's not dead
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: in my opinion. At seventy six hundred this week, especially
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: with a lot of big favorites, or at least the
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: top three really big. That means the real, real lower
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: tier is pretty weak. In my opinion, seventy six could
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: be enough, do you sign up for it? I would,
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: I would actually sign up to be overweight this week.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: By no means would I lock it. But for his price,
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: he has some of the best money line value on
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: the slate. So there's a lot of other fights and
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: people I don't like. Then, I'm going to keep both
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: of these guys in the pool because they both have
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: knockout upside. I just hope that maybe it's a firefight,
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: but on paper expect you know the distance, two primary strikers.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Max Griffin usually not a good DFS guy. I would
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: do agree. It's probably like a two to three star
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: something like that. But there's other people I like worse
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: that I'll be fading. I'll keep both in the pool.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: Gun to my had this fight bus though and goes
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: fifteen minutes and stays on the feet. Another fight I
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: don't love too much. Julia Plastriy minus two forty to
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: lead to Alan Carr plus two oh five plus one
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: ninety five for this fight to finish Pilastree plus two
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: to fifty inside the distance Alan Carr plus six seventy five.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna maybe have to. I'm gonna play Alan Carr
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: for sure at the end of the day, like we
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: need dogs. I talked about not liking the bottom three.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about Brennan, Durdan and Silva. No thanks.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: So then we get up to Alan Carr. I think
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: she's gonna need to wrestle plus two forty for her
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: uh or excuse me, plus two oh five for seventy
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: two hundred not bad for sure, gonna play some there, Pilastery.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: When I looked on Monday, even on Tuesday, she was
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: plus three hundred inside the distance. Now she's plus two
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: fifty and she lands six point four significant strikes per
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: minutes against a wrestler and Alan Car, So I might
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: have to change and include Polastery in my pool as
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: a contrarian spend. What are your thoughts on this one,
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: and what are your thoughts on that.
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: I'm not against it as a contrarian play. I just
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: don't like this fight because it's gonna be her most
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: likely spending some time on her back where she's not scoring.
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: I do think she's gonna be able to get up.
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: She'll be the better striker in this one. She's just
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: a better fighter, just a better fighter overall. Alan Carr
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: is gonna need to wrestle and grapple the entire fight
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: in order to have any sort of edge. I think
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: the last week could even land takedowns of her own
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: if she really wanted to and have some success on top.
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: She just doesn't want to be on the bottom, or
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: she wants to be at range and striking here. But
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: if she spends let's say the first round on her back,
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: I think it's a wrap for her. After that, I
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: think it's too late at that point. If she's not
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: scoring any points in the first round at nine K,
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: so I think you got it's just to be super contrarian,
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: you're trying to get a solo ship or I think
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: it's okay, and she could score well if she's not
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: taken down at all, she just dominates the fight. But
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: I do think Alan Carr has some wrestling success, just
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: not enough. I think she gets like two or three
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: takedowns and doesn't get a finish. Of course, so give
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: me Pilastra to win two, if not all three rounds
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: on the scorecards, but probably score in the eighties is
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: what I would guess.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, which we don't want that by any means. My
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: initial thoughts was something like that, but plus two fifty
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: inside the distance is not bad for some of that.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: I think very well could be like fourteen percent owned
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: on this card. People are definitely gonna want Marshall fiel
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Hoo McVeigh for cheaper, ridolfho for one hundred. More Like,
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: it's really clear that Pete like she's gonna get skipped
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: over with six point four significant strikes per minute if
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: she stuffs takedowns, there is a path, So I think
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: I'm an includer. I have a little more interest now
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: seeing the line movements for her finishing prop than I
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: did earlier in the week. I'm definitely gonna play some
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: Allen card though a wrestler at seventy two hundred when
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: I hate dogs. If she wins signed me up, I
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: think more than likely, probably optimally even seventy. Like I said,
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: if I'm taking seventy six at seventy six hundred, taking
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: seventy six at seventy two hundred, So Alan Carr my
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: preferred play, but I might play a little bit of
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: Pilastree all right. Next fight on the card, we'll getting
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: into the three big FA, three biggest favorites. We're going
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: boom boom boom, Francis Marshall taking on Lucas Brennan. Marshall
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: minus five hundred, Brennan plus three seventy five minus won
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: forty for this fight. To finish, Marshall minus one oh
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: five inside the distance Brennan plus six twenty five. So
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: this fight was booked late. Let's see the odds came
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: out on. This fight was booked Monday, I believe, and
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: it opened minus four hundred. Francis was minus seven hundred
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: just earlier today, and then money came back on the
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: Brennan side. Now it's minus five hundred, So yeah, that
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: was actually pretty recent line movement. Minus four hundred got
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: as low as minus seven hundred now minus five hundred
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: in a fight minus one forty to finish. Both guys
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: look to be or. Brennan's a primary submission guy and
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Francis Marshall's pretty well rounded, but more of his wins
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: come by submission as well. What do you think happens
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: in this one?
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: I think Marshall probably just dictates where the fight takes place,
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: and since Brennan is primarily a grappler, I think Marshall's
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: gonna want to keep it on the feet and I
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: see him winning a striking match and not scoring well.
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: But my issue is that when both guys are grapplers,
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: sometimes it can just be a ten minute grappling match.
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: And if that's Marshall winning it, I think he could
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: score well. I don't think Brennan can win minutes too
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: much in the grappling. I think it would be more
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: him grabbing a neck and maybe submitting Marshall. I just
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: wasn't too impressive with what I saw in Brennan. I
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: also couldn't see as much as I wanted to. A
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: bunch of his film was like I was getting errors
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: when I was trying to watch his fight, so I
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: watched like a highlight reel. I watched his loss, which
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: wasn't very great. But I need to find some more
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: on this Brinnan kid. Maybe I don't. I mean, the
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: line kind of tells me everything. I think. I want
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: to avoid Brennan, and if Marshall's gonna be popular, I
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: want I'm probably gonna avoid him too. This would be
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: more of a two star for me. But if he
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: was not gonna be popular, then I think he would
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: have been a good shift away from Fielo or Montague,
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: whoever it is. That is gonna be popular on this card.
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: I don't know who that's gonna be. I think it's
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: gonna be a tough card to have anyone that's gonna
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: be like forty percent on Who do you think is
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: gonna be the highest own favorite on this card?
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: The highest own favorite on this card I think is
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: gonna be Jackson McVeigh. Wow, I mean Yusuf's a lull. Okay,
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: I'll say Yusuf's a lull for the main event, maybe
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: the easy way out, but after I think I'm gonna
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: go McVeigh because I think people are aren't gonna want
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: a dumpster dive too much down below, and I think
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: they're just gonna see that minus six hundred fight. Everyone
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: loves fading Dumas. He's minus one sixty inside of the distance,
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: he's plus one seventy five in round one. It's easy
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: for the salary wise, I think that's probably where it goes.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: So Ziwell and McVeigh would be my thoughts there. As
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: far as the top three highest priced, Marshall Filo months ago,
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: I think because of this recent line movement, Filo's minus
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: six fifty right now and Marshall's minus five hundred. So
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: if that's the case, I think people are in it
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: stays that way. I think people are gonna try and
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: find the one hundred and Filo will be more, but
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: I think that'll be relatively close. I think months ago
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: will be the one that's pretty clearly below them, maybe
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: like thirty five percent, Fuelo, thirty Marshall twenty three michell
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: or I throw out random names, but something in that
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: order is how I'm guessing. What are your thoughts on that?
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: And all that I had, I.
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: Put them all like basically the exact same, so I
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: have no idea yet. I'll adjust it all before we
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: get to Saturday, and it'll be more clear. If you're
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: a ship at Nation member to check it.
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: Out, yeah, absolutely that will be as you can see
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: where you can find that MMA projections ownership and obviously
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: our projections, and then it is automatically loaded into Saber
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: sim if you have that membership as well. Also, we
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: appreciate everyone hanging out like button subscribe button helps us
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: out a ton, watching live or watching on playback. We
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: appreciate you guys very much. MMA keeps growing. The sport
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: is there's no better sports. I mean, MMA is a
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: stone cold nuts. Love to see it continue to grow.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: Viewership's really good. And yeah, I've gotten multiple messages about
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: no one ever followed MMA all this. They got in
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: for dfs and they just fell in love with the sport.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: That always makes me very happy because, yeah, two people
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: trying to kill each other, it's as off as it gets.
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: That's a great way to spend your Saturday night. All right,
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: let's keep it rolling. Next fight on the card. I
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: mentioned it, but biggest favorite haf Oul Filo minus six
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: fifty taking on Cody dirt and plus four seventy five
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: minus three twenty five for this fight to finish. Filo
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: the biggest inside of distance prop on the card at
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: minus two seventy round one prop I am not seeing
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: right now. So this was supposed to be Feelo versus
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: Lucas Hocha drten stepping in on short notice. I always
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: love Cody Dirden fights. Usually the pace is pretty high,
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: Usually it results in a finish. But man, this is
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: a nightmare matchup for him. As you can see drdin.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: You don't find Durden's plus seventy eighty to finish. By
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: the way, I don't know if I mentioned that, but
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: you don't find Dirden is this big of a dog
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: too often. I think it just shows Durden has lost
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: five or five of his ten losses have been by
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: sub Philo is known to be a very good submission grappler.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: He's minus two seventy to finish. He opened minus two
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: twenty five. This fight opened or money line wise, Filo
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: open minus four hundred, similar to Marshall now minus six fifty.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: So yeah, give me the Filo side. I think he
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: gets a takedown and submits Durdin, either in the first
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: or the second round. Are you gonna play any Durden
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: and what are your thoughts on this one?
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: I'm not against it if I play it. I actually
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: played one hundred and fifty last week. If I knew
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty this week, then I would keep
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: dirtin in my pool, because I mean, I think he
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: could win the striking, and he's a better wrestler in
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: this fight. It's just that Felo is a better grappler,
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: way more dangerous grappler, and I do think he is
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: gonna submit Dirt and at some point, probably in the
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: first round. I just don't know if it's gonna be
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: enough points. If it's gonna be in the first round.
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: If he gets a takedown, couple, a couple punches here
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: and there, and he scores like ninety seven, is that
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: gonna be enough? I don't know. Usually he does score well, though,
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: I was looking at his scores one ten, one, thirteen,
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: one oh five and his wins, so I'd be fine
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: with all of those at ninety five hundred on this
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: card specifically, So I do like Felo more than Marshall.
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: But to me, I think again, it's just gonna come
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: down to the ownership. If there is a big gap
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: in anybody, I'd rather go to the lower own person,
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: no matter who that is. But I do think Filo
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: deserves to have higher owned ownership or a higher ownership,
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: because I think he is gonna have a pretty decent
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: round one submission line.
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm really curious to see what that wrong on
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: prop is, and I guess it's like plus one ten
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: or something similar. If Dirton wins, I mean, he's got
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: a score, usually pushes the pace, maybe it's some wrestling
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: or he knocks him out, but the line doesn't think
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: he wins. I'm more than likely I don't think he
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: wins because of that recent line movement on Brennan. I
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: would rather play Brennan then I would Dirdan. I'd rather
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: play Fila more than Marshall, assuming the ownership's pretty close.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: If there's a big gap, I totally agree with you
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: on that. But I don't think we'll see too big
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: of a gap with him in the highest price at
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: ninety five hundred. But yeah, Filo definitely has upside in
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: this one. Minus two seventy finish is in a tier
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: of its own, almost a dollar better than the next best.
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: Let's keep it rolling to the third biggest favorite. Michelle
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: Montagau minus four hundred ticket Miro Bueno Silva plus three
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: hundred plus one fifty five for this fight to finish.
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: Excuse me mont to go plus one seventy inside the
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: distance Bueno Silva plus nine hundred. Michelle a primary grappler.
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: You can argue, actually both these girls primary grapplers. Michelle's
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: plus three hundred to win by so in her UFC
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: debut it was. She's finished six of her seven wins
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: by sub The only non a finish win was her
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: debut last fight against Juana Carolina, but she went five
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: for seven on takedowns almost eleven minutes of control time
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: for one two DraftKings points. Buena Silva doesn't have great
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: takedown defense because she's always confident when she's offered back.
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: I think that'd be a mistake in this one. But
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: I do think Michelle gets takedowns. And yeah, I think
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: any Fiela lineup, you can go to Michelle leave two
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: hundred and be different, Marshall to Michelle to be different.
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: I do think she's the lowest owned of the three
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: and her ownerships in check as a primary wrestler and
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: submission grapplers. So yeah, just hearing all that, sign me up.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: I assume you have similar thoughts, but I'm curiously your
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: take on Myra Buena Silva, and then how would you
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: rank Buena Silva, Durden and Brennan if you had to pick?
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, same thoughts as you on this fight. Montague. I
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: think is gonna be just a better wrestler. I think
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: she has the one hundred and two point, but uh,
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: I'd say realistic ceiling in every matchup that she's in
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: because she's gonna want to get takedowns, keep the fight
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: on the ground for ten plus minutes if she can.
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: This is a dangerous fight to do that, because Silva
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: is a dangerous submission grappler, more so when she's in
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: a dominant position, though I think she can be taken
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: down and kind of dominated on the ground. Silva is
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: gonna be the better striker here too. She can throw heat,
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: maybe finish this girl on the feet. So I'm not
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: against Silva exposure. I'd say she's my favorite of those three.
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: Silva dirtin Brennan would be my third. Well, if I
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: am a twenty or less, I just might try to
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: avoid all three of them, hope that they lose and
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: stay more in that mid range of underdogs.
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: I agree. I if I'm playing a lot of lineups,
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: maybe I play all of them. Dirty would be my
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: least favorite. Brennan Bueno Silva would be close because of
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: the money line odds. I think i'd favorite Bueno Silva.
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: But if I'm making fifteen teams, to be honest, I'm
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: probably just trying to avoid all three of them. I
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: have enough ways to get different. I can fade the
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: main event, I can jam more mid tier, I can
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: leave money. I just I don't love playing these big
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: dogs as a way to get different today. It's not
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: my Earth this week. It's not my favorite approach there.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: Let's go to my favorite fight on the card to
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: target for DFS. I kind of already tipped my hand,
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: but Jackson McVay minus one eighty five taken ont Sidricus
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: Dumas plus one sixty minus six hundred for this fight
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: to finish McVay minus one sixty inside the distance, Dumas
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: plus two to twenty inside the distance McVay round one
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: open plus two hundred now plus one seventy five. I'm
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: loading up on both sides. If I'm not playing McVay,
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: more than likely I'm playing Dumas. I actually think Dumas
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: is probably one of the best game theory plays on
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: the slate. Since I do think McVay is very high owned,
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: Dumas cheaper. You get a lot of leverage best inside
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: the distance prop in the lower tier when he wins,
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: a lot of McVay teams die, and I'd assume Dumas
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: scores well. So yeah, I like both sides. I very
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: well might end up with more Dumas. But I feel
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: like I say this pretty much every card when it
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: comes to Dumas because he's always almost an underdog. He's
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: always in a fight expected to finish high. His opponent's
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: always highly owned, and I feel like Dumas is always
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: losing except against Josh Freend. No friend beat Dumas. I
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: don't even know which one Dumas won, but yeah, he's
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: not very good. Yeah, how do you see this fight?
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's be my favorite DFS fight on the card.
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: I think McVay. I think he'll look like the big
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: favorite early in the fight. In the first couple of minutes.
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: He is dangerous in the clinch and he could knock
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: out Dumas, and then he is also dangerous with submissions
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: when he gets the fight to the ground. But I
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: don't think he's gonna be a good wrestler, and I
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: also think he's gonna start to fall off the longer
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: this fight goes. Dumas could maybe even finish McVay in
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: the first round, but I think the longer it goes,
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: the more it's gonna shift over to Dumas. If he
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: can weather that storm, he could finish mcvagh in any round.
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: So I'm just gonna be all over this fight. I
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: prefer McVay. I'm picking him to win in the first round.
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: But when you said do you think he's going to
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: be the highest on favorite on the card and maybe think, well, shoot,
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: maybe I need to get more Dumas then, because I
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: just don't trust McVay enough. If he's going to be
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: forty plus percent own, he's just not that good of
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: a UFC fighter. So I think these guys are pretty
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: similar buckets, just more people hate Dumas.
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah. No, I think that's a very good breakdown, and
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: I think probably like forty percent around is where i'd
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: get it again. Eighty seven hundred on the card where
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: people don't love dogs, which means you can't spend up
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: too easily. The mid tier is pretty strong, but yeah,
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: I mean minus one sixty to finish for McVeigh. Everyone
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: does like picking on Dumas. I think this is probably
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: the best fight to target on the card, like I said,
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: and I want a lot of both sides. I'm not
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: making a rule down of one hundred percent, but if
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: I did end up with one hundred percent with twenty
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: teams or less, I would most definitely roll with it.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: Let's go to a four star fight, big Marley has
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: and all stars are on one side, which I do agree.
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: Ridulf of Vieira minus three oh five taken on Eric
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: mcconico plus two fifty five minus won forty for this
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: fight to finish Vieira plus one oh five inside the
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: distance mconco plus five twenty five. So you can see
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: on Monday Vieira was only minus two twenty five favorite
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: now minus three oh five, so he's taken some of
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: the most money as we've seen all week. I think
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: Vieira takes him down, dominates him on the mat, probably
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: eventually gets the submission. But at ninety one hundred, we
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: got to compare him to make Veigh, who we just
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: talked about. Also Marshall, Philo Montego, are you fine dropping
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: money from like a filo and going Vieira, how do
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: you rank him amongst them? And yeah, how much you
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: think you have? And then any mcconico for you.
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'm gonna have a lot of Viera
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: because I think he finishes mcconico in the first round.
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: It's just gonna be a levels to this game. When
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: he gets the fight to the ground in the first round,
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: especially when he's fresh and strong, I just think he's
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: gonna wrap it up pretty quick, pretty quick. I would
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: imagine it's gonna be like an arm triangle something like
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: that where mcconico fights it off for ten seconds and
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: then and then it's over. But give me vier to
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: score right around one hundred points, and I like that
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: a good amount. But if Filo's gonna score one hundred
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: and ten to viere is one hundred, then then I'm
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: gonna probably like Kilo more. But it's all just gonna
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: be similar to me. I'm fine dropping from Filo to
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: Vierra if that's gonna make me that much different. I
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: just also like that Vieera's four hundred dollars cheaper, and
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: that can afford me lineups that I won't be able
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: to get to with Filo also, so I think I
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: will be quite over right on Vieira and mcconico is
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: gonna be my first complete X off the board. If
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: I make one hundred and fifty lineups, I'm gonna x
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: out mcconago.
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: He's your first one, all right. With that line movement,
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: I was kind of thinking, uh, thinking similar, he's gone.
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: My appeal on him has gone down as the week goes.
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: I actually didn't like him too much to start with.
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: The problem is done. I don't like Brendan sixty eight hundred.
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: I don't like sixty seven hundred. I don't like sixty
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: nine hundred. I don't like seventy one hundred, which is true,
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: and that's why I'm talking about Alan Carr. I'm gonna
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: have to fall on Max Griffin, even though I don't
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: like the upside. If all those people lose, seventy six
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: could be enough. Kind of where we're getting there, and
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: then we'll get to like a Ryan Span, Barcelos Davy
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: Grant like I'm gonna play some of these dogs up top.
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm forced to. They play a salary based game,
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: but that is kind of where where my strategy is going.
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: Favorites early, kind of hoping some dogs are barking as
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: the card goes great fight to target right here minus
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: six hundred to finish tied for the best on the slate.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: Mid tier fight Marcus Puceca minus one forty, Ryan Span
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: plus one twenty individual inside the distance Props Buchcha minus
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: one oh five inside the distance, Ryan Span plus one
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: forty in terms of line movement on this card is
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: actually Span open as a minus one twenty five favorites,
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: and now he finds himself as the dog so flipped.
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: But yeah, both guys very good finishing props for their price.
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: It's this fight, and it's the McVeigh fight, and I like,
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: again I'm tipping my hand, but I like this fight
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: in the mid tier more than the wall sterling in
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: a vacuum plug. I needs a wall team in takes
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: the loll out Gobuchecha Span leave the money. That is
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: something I'll be looking to get different this week. I'm
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: gonna have a bunch of this fight. Uh what about you?
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I'm definitely gonna load up on this fight,
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: but I also have worries about it just being a
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: complete stinker of a fight, especially if they make it
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: out of a round one. Both of these guys will
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: tend to slow down. Wucech is gonna need to grapple
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: the full fight. Span has submissions in his game, but
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: he is gonna be at a disadvantage in the grappling
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: in this fight. He's gonna want to strike and he
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: could knock out Boucecha probably in any round, but who
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: knows what he's gonna look like late in this fight.
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: I would not trust him in the third round. So
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: I think if it's in the third round. Both these
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: guys are gonna be gassed out, and it's gonna be
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: a craft score for either one of them, So I'm
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: not gonna make it a point to get it into
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: my lineup, but it is my second favorite fight to
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: target with the main event being really close to it.
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: My preferred play is Buceca because I do think he
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: is gonna be the one getting takedowns and he's gonna
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: have the grappling advantage submission grappling advantage, but it's not
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: big enough where I'm sure he's gonna be my higher
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: own guy. If I need that four hundred dollars, I
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: have no problem going down to Span, and I also
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: think you know your couple of favorite Butceca lineups move
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: down to Span as well and save that four hundred
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: dollars that could make it go from twenty dupes to
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: two dupes. So I think that it's just a good
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: fight to target because it's right there in the mid range.
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: Both guys are one hundred plus potential fighters and there
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: is a decent chance that they score a hundred plus
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: points too. I just worry about it getting out around
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: one and how these guys are gonna look after that.
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: She gives me rayes Johnny Walker vibes, I mean, not
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: quite the same fight, but just the same kind of vibes. Yeah,
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: I mean, if it gets there, it's probably gonna bus.
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: It's gonna be bad unless Bouchuch has just been on
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: top the whole time, and then maybe like the top
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: control of the takedowns are enough, it'd be really hard
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: for Ryan Span. With that being said, though, under one
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: and a half favored at minus one fifty eight. Now
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: to go play Devil's Advocate. On the flip side.
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: It opened minus two hundred, so some money has come
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: in on the over, but it's still favored and inside
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: one and a half rounds, which is good for dfs.
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: We need it. If only five or thirteen fights expected
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: to finish and two minus six hundreds. Yeah, if you
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: do think it's more likely than this, like Big Marley saying,
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: than the odds dictate, and you want to be under
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: this fight and at BUS, that could be your way
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: to get different. Fading this fight, fading the McVeigh fight,
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: fading the main event. I think it's clear those are
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: the three highest owned fights on both sides. If you
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: only play one of the three. You're definitely getting different
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: that way. Now, I do think there's pass where you
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: can play two of them and get different. If you
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: play three of them, maybe you should be looking at
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: a Brennan, a Dirt and a Silva leaving four hundred
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: plus maybe something like that. Maybe playing Sterling, Span and
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: Dumas like all three underdogs is a way to get different.
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: I would be a little cautious on my roster if
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: I was playing those three fights. But yeah, I like
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: this fight a lot. But Chech is looking for takedowns.
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: I think Span can knock them out at any point.
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: Most of the SPAN's like submissions are just grabbing the
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: neck on the feet when he is shooting a takedown.
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I think he's live there. I think because
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: I can leave four hundred as a way to get different.
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: He's my slight preference, but not a strong lean by
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: any means. I definitely like the fight. I personally like
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: the fight more than the main event, and I will
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: talk about why when we get there. Next fight on
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: the card, Montel Jackson. That's big Marley's boy, Montale Jackson,
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: Don't I always remember that? Taking on Hyoni Barcellos minus
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: one ninety Jackson plus one sixty five Barcelos plus one
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: twenty for this fight. To finish, Jackson plus one sixty
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: in side of the distance Barcelos plus six twenty five.
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: So a little money has came in on Jackson. Excuse me, Jackson,
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: throw out the week. What I don't love to see. Actually, no,
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: it's not too bad. So Jackson opened plus two twenty
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: five inside the distance. He was plus one fifty when
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: I looked on Monday. Now he's plus one sixty, but
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: still decent amount of money has came in on him
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: to finish. Yeah, I'll let you talk about this one,
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: but I know I'm forced to play hyone. Like I
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: talked about not liking too many dogs. I think he's
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: gonna try and wrestle. I think that's his best path,
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: hoping the more the fight, the longer the fight goes,
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: the more he can take over with how much Montell
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: has to cut weight like you see on the stone.
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: But Montel always live for I mean the first minute bonus.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: When it's all said and done, the dude hits like
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: a truck as we saw against Blacks year. So yeah,
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna target this fight for sure. What about you.
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: I don't like it as much. I think that it's
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: fine to target either side of I like Jackson for
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: his knockout potential and I like Barcelos for his wrestling
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: and grappling potential. Barcellos is a really good striker too.
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: He could be Jackson on the feet. I don't think
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: he knocks him out, but he could win just minutes.
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: He could also land a couple of takedowns throughout the
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: way throughout the fifteen minutes. But I do think Barcellos
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: would score around ten x or more if he is
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: able to get the job done, So I'm cool with him. Jackson.
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: I'd rather just take him for the ceiling, and I
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: also don't think he's gonna get too much ownership. But
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: I see it being a pretty close fight where Jackson
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: just wins two rounds striking and doesn't score enough points.
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: That's out my prediction for the fight to go down.
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: I just don't think Jackson is gonna knock him out.
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: It could be close to if it's if it's on
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: the feet for fifteen minutes. But Jackson's my guy. I
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: never picked against him. I don't think in a single
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: UFC fight, so I'm not about to now. I just
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: don't like it as much for DFS if he's not
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: going to get that knockout, so I'm gonna be looking
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: at target other fights instead. I like Bucechu for three
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: hundred less. I like Za Lul for two hundred less.
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: But if they're gonna be low Owed, that could make
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: me like it a little bit more.
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I do think. I don't know about low Own,
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: but I don't think it can be like too chalky.
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be like right there in the
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: twenty percent range or something like that. People are definitely
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: gonna want McVeigh for one hundred more than Montel, but
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: I do think iyone. I don't know actually, because people
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: are gonna see plus one twenty money line versus like
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: plus one sixty for Barcelos, maybe that leads people to Griffin,
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: but if both win, I don't think it's not even close.
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: I think Barcelos has more upside because I think he
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: has a lot more wrestling upside, even though it's inside
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: the distance prop isn't good, but I'm gonna play this fight.
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: I'm almost forced to again. It's another one. I don't
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: love the main event. It's in the similar price range.
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: It's not breaking the bank since I don't love cheap dogs.
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm gonna hope it. I'm gonna help Montell
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: knocks him out. I'm gonna hope IONI wins the decision
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: and he scores enough at seventy six hundred. Next fight
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: on the card, the closest price fight and the pro
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: actually not even the closest line fight anymore. Davy Grant,
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: the cheaper fighter, finds himself as a minus one thirty
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: five take favorite, taking on Adrian Luna. This fight is
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: plus one ten to finish Grant plus two thirty five
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: inside the distance, Luna plus three fifteen. Again you can
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: see on Monday. Even there now or even on Monday,
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: Grant was the favorite at minus one twenty. He's continued
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: to take money minus one thirty five now at only
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: eight k inside the distance prop is good for the
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: price as well open plus two to fifty five now
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: plus two thirty five. With all that being said, Grant
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: a striker. I do think Luna, if he wins, he's
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: a lot more likely to get a submission or get takedowns.
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: And if I need to get different on this card,
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: if Grant keeps getting money and people are just gonna
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: we need dogs. We're gonna play them the favorite. That's
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: ak kind of like Castanada last week. I'm probably gonna
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: be overweight on Luna then as a leverage play, forcing
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: myself to get different because I am playing Nick. They
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: do checha lineups in that. So this one's tough. It's
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: expected to go, expected to go the distance and Grants
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: the striker, so Grant can easily win like he's supposed
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: to and still not be optimal at ak Uh what
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: do you think about this one? And that would be
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: an easy underweight thing for me. I think he's probably
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: Montel Jackson. Montel Jackson he's talking about.
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that'd be wild.
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: I think mid twenties, thirty maybe, But yeah, I mean
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: the inside, the distance prop's good, the money line's fine,
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: and it's right in the mid tier, so I wouldn't
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: be shocked. No, thank you for me at forty percent
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: or at least underweight obviously same same, Yeah, this fine.
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be a fun fight, probably one
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: of the highest paced fights on the card. I think
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: it's gonna mainly play out on the feet for the
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: most part, but either guy I could lay in takedowns
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: in this one.
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: I think uh Grant might even be the better submission
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: artist between the two. I think uh Luna is probably
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: the better wrestler, but I think it's gonna be a
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: fun striking match where either one of them could score
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: ninety plus points. I'm fine with either one of them.
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: I picked Grant because he was the plus money side,
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: but now he's the favorite, and he's gonna be much
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: more owned because he's the favorite. So that might lean
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: to Luno being my preferred play in this one, because
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: I really don't have a preference, and same with the
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: rest of the card. Man ownership could be what switches
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: me from one side to another, and I'm fine being
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: on the lower end of this one. Give me the
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: younger guy ten years younger. Grant is looking like he's
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: in the prime of his career at forty years old,
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: but how long can that really last? So I liked
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: him because he had a plus next to his name.
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: I don't like him that much with more ownership and
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: the minus next to his name.
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and because again the upside, like Grant a striker,
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: he's forty years old. I thought I picked him to
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: win a decision, but again when I looked at the
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: line was closer as well DFS. I think the ownership
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: ownership gap more than likely is two wide. And if
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: that's the case, give me the guy that's probably gonna
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: want to try and get it to the mat plus
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: four hundred by sub is is Luna. I think that's
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: pretty solid. We're talking DFS and upside, so I prefer
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: him in DFS. What's up, Nicholas, great to see, hope
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: you are doing well. Next fight on the card now,
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: this one is the closest line fight now. Alexander Hernandez
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: and Rafa Garcia minus one fifteen Hernandez minus one oh
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: five Garcia plus one fifty for this fight to finish,
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: Hernandez plus two seventy five inside the distance Garcia plus
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: three sixty five. So you can see on Monday it
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: was minus one fifty or Nanas plus one thirty Garcia
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: at open Hernandez went minus one fifty all the way
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: down to minus one seventy and then slowly but surely
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: the money has came in on the Garcia side and
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: it has not stopped. I do think this lead to
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: Garcia being one of the most popular underdogs on the slates.
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: As you can see, solid volume. He can wrestle Hernandez
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: mainly a striker, He's big, he has power. Garcias might
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: prefer play, but I do worry ownership could get up
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: there a little bit. Yeah, what do you think of
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: this one?
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah? I like Garcia. He was one of my top
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: underdog choices, just because I think anytime Garcia is an underdog,
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: you got to be interested because he is a high
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: paced fighter and he is the best part of his
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: game is his wrestling, so he should be looking to
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: mix in takedowns. I think he could win this fight
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: on the feet, just throwing out more volume than Hernandez.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: Hernandez at eighty five hundred dollars, you really need a knockout,
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: I think from him. So I'll be underweight if not
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: fading Hernandez and hoping that the knockout doesn't come if
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: he wins a decision. I think he's not on the
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: optimal lineup, but Garcia, I think he could win a
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: decision and still score ninety plus points as the dog.
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: So Garcia is gonna be definitely an overweight play for me,
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: even if if he is high own He's going to
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: be one of my first underdog clicks in most of
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: my hand built lineups. But I just don't feel very
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: confident about him winning. I think it could be pretty
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: close minute to minute. I don't love his skills, Like
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: I don't love his skills, they are solid, but I
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: love his pace and I like that he wants to
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: get the fight to the ground. So give me a
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: decent amount of Garcia at seventy seven hundred.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: What would you said is takedown prop at.
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: I'd say like one and a half with juice or
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: two and a half at plus money.
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: Okay, how much Hernandez do you think you'll have? Like
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: I feel like it's I mean, Garcia is really durable,
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: He's tough to finish. It feels like Hernanda is almost
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: needs a finish. But talk about low ownership, Like Montel's
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: going to be more popular, for sure, but Chach is
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: going to be more popular, Makeday's going to be more popular,
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: The lull is going to be more popular. Like if
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: we do get a Hernandez banker, Hernanda's optimal performance, that's
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: when you'll see a solo shipper and you'll get a
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: lot of leverage off of Garcia I guess I'm trying
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: to talk myself into it on paper. I don't love it,
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: but he's plus two seventy five to finish. I don't
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: know what are your thoughts on how much hernandez you'll have.
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: I'd say if I do a typical twenty or less lineup,
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: so I'm not gonna have any hernandez. If I do
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: one fifty, I don't think I would limit it at all.
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: With one fifty, I would let Saber sim do its
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: thing and hope that I'm around ten percent or so.
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: But if it gave me twenty out of one to
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: fifty percent, and I really liked everything else, I'd probably
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: be okay with it.
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: I like it. I like it all right. Two fights
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: left comain events. I mean, you can't really drop a
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: worse comyin event in terms of entertainment in my opinion.
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: But we do get what we get normal do Mont
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: minus two ten Jocelyn Edwards plus one eighty plus two
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: seventy five for this fight to finish, Dumont plus four
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: to twenty five inside the distance Edwards plus five to fifty.
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: So Edwards has taking some money since mondays. You can
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: see it was so this on the line went open
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: minus two hundred very shortly after, got all the way
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: down to minus one thirty eight, then Dumont. It stood
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: around there for a little while. Dumont got a good
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: amount of bye late last week, got all the way
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: as low as minus two forty, like you can see
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: right here on Monday, and Edwards has gotten some buy back.
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: We need dogs. It looks like you prefer the dog
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: on in this one. I mean, Dumont's gonna try and
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: wrestle and be boring. Can Edwards stuff the takedowns keep
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: it at distance? Or do you think Dumont Dumas is
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: in the end house arrested dude always feels like he is,
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: but he always fights. Who knows can Dumont wrestle in
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: this one? Is she gonna push up the cage and
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: make it greasy? Or is Edward's gonna continue a phenomenal
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: streak four wins in a row all by finish she
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: has definitely turned the page. So what do you think
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: of this one?
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Edward's one of the most improved fighters
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: in the whole UFC in the last couple of years,
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: And I think this is a pretty dang clow fight.
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: I've been thinking about betting Edwards in this fight because
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: it should be a little bit closer to pick him
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: in my eyes. But Dumont does have the wrestling to
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: be able to dictate where the fight takes place. She can,
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: I mean, she's active on the ground too. She could
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: score well at eighty eight hundred and not get too
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: much ownership. She's also decent on the feet, so I
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: think at low ownership, Dumont's an okay play. But Edwards
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: can hang with her anywhere. I think even now, her
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: wrestling game has improved enough where she can stuff takedowns
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: or even land one of her own as she wants to.
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: But she is the more dangerous striker, and I think
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: she's the more likely minute winner if this is a
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: fifteen minute striking match as well, So Edwards is my
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: preferred play, maybe a potential bet as well. The line
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: was moving in Dumont's favor when I was looking at
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: this fight, I was hoping it was gonna keep doing it.
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: It didn't make any sense to me, so I thought
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: I was missing something. But now I think it's coming
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: the right way. I still think there's value, but the
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: tighter it gets, the less interested. I'll be in the bet.
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the line, like I said, that line's
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: been all over the place. You said you did have
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: some interest in Dumont, like she's gonna want to wrestle
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: and get on top, can Edwards get up and Dumont
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: drop like Dumper. Again, if you had to pick Dumont
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: or Pilastery, who would you pick? I see them as
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: pretty similar plays in the sense of very low owned.
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: But you can I can draw up a path to
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: both sides.
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I'd say Dumont for me over Pilastree, Dumont
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: over Hernandez.
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: I agree with kind of that that range. I like
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: them just more than those ones. And again she has
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: to be low owned. As a pivot, I'm gonna play
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: something chalk your lineus. But again you have Vierira ninety
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: one hundred, you have Montel Jackson eighty six, McVeigh eighty seven.
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's mainly that, Like Pilaster is not really gonna
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: get ownership right there, but it's a couple hundred lower
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: and then a couple hundred higher. People are gonna find
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: ways to upgrade or just leave money to Dumont, like
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: zeroing out Dumont and not playing Montel or make veg
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: is a way to get different. Not my favorite way
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: to do it, but like leaving zero dollars instead of
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: two hundred to get down to Montel. The Montel side
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: I expect to have more dupes than the Dumont side.
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: All right, Main event time again, appreciate everyone hanging out,
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: watching live or watching on playback. Again, if you're not
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: a member at ship Nation, you guys know the drill
• 44:21
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• 44:24
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• 44:37
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• 44:40
  Speaker 1: And again you get all of this projections, ownership to
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: Stone which is highlighted and filled out come Friday co reports,
• 44:47
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• 44:50
  Speaker 1: again access to the MMA discord as well. Main event
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: time use of Zolol minus one twenty five. I was
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: remain sterling plus one oh five US one thirty five
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: for this fight to go the distance, Zaalaul plus two
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: forty inside the distance al Jo plus three seventy five.
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: So this fight open plus one twenty five to finish
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: and I'll plus one thirty five. The overtook money and
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: you can see on Monday it was zilal well. I
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: forgot to put minus next to it, but it was
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: Zall minus one sixty, al Jo plus one forty and
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: now Zala only minus one twenty five. I do think
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: this will lead to probably al Jamaine Sterling being the
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: chalkiest fighter on the slate, if not the chalkiest top two,
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: top three. I'll let you break it down and then
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: i'll talk about the reason. Of course, main events, you
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: should almost always play at least one side or both
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: sides twenty five minutes. It's a big thing. Mid tier
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: fight you don't need as big of a score. But
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna talk about reasons. I think you can fade
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: and get away, but I'll let you just talk about
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: your thoughts on it first.
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think this is a close fight. It's it's
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: a close fight and it could go anywhere. It could
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: be play out more on the feet and not be
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: on the optimal lineup, and it could also be grappling
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: heavy and you need to fight whoever. It's gonna be.
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: Al Joe, I do like to be the better grappler.
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: I think he is the one who would be the
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: more likely fighter that you would have to have if
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: he wins. Whereas the law, he is going to want
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: to keep this fight on the feet. I think he's
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: the better striker, not completely offensively, but he's just really
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: good defensively. It's hard to hit. I think he will
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: be winning the minutes when the fight is on the feet,
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: and he is also a good wrestler grappler himself. This
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: is just a big step up in that kind of
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: a fighting and that kind of a matchup, so I
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: think he's gonna want to keep it on the feet.
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: Algie is going to be looking for takedowns, and if
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: that all wins, it could be a wide range of
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: a score where we don't need him. And that's what
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: I'm picking happen, is the lall winning and maybe scoring
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: right around ten x or so, and hopefully that's not
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: on the optimal lineup. I do want to click on
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: him a lot because it's right there in the mid range,
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: and I'm also fine if I'm making limited lineups, duplicating
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: some of the allaw lineups of putting Sterling in as well,
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: saving the six hundred dollars. But the more the line titans,
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: I think, the more Sterling is gonna get owned. And
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: that either makes me like Salala a little bit more
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: or the fade just a little bit more. I think
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: it is closer to a three star than a five
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: star for me. And this could be just a lot
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: of defense on the feet for Zillah. Even though it
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: is a small cage. He's gonna be on the bike
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: trying to trying to get away from Sterling, not get
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: taken down in this fight. And I like so lot
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: to be the better striker, just not laying enough strikes.
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, man, I would feel I'd be It'd be a
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: three star for me if it was in the bigger cage.
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: I'd feel a lot better about the fade now because,
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: like you mentioned, the ownership or the line tightening for
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: l Joe, I do think inflates his ownership quite a bit.
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: I do think he's probably forty four plus, maybe even
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: gets like the fifty mark. Again, that's because value is
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: tough on this card and you're getting a big name
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: who can wrestle, who scored well in the past. At
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: seventy eight hundred and twenty five minute fight, it all
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: adds up, and like I have nothing bad to say
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: about it. My favorite way to play Sterling is Pluggins
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: the law goes Sterling leaves six hundred. Zlall is my
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: pick to win, but he was my pick to win
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: by stuffing takedowns, keeping at distance, and out striking l Joe,
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: and I don't think that scores, so honestly, my preferred
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: play it was the Lall. Thinking about it more, my
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: preferred play might be all Joe even at chalk, But
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: my preferred thing is general is just fading this fight.
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: And if Thelalla does win a decision, a striking base
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: decision and doesn't get many takedowns, which I don't think
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: he will like ten x eighty four eighty four is
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: not enough eighty four hundred on this card. If it
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: is like, okay, I'll live, I'll take my dub in
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: the fade and then somehow I'll be wrong and it'll
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: be really annoying. But I just don't see that being
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: the case. How often do you think ol Jo just
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: pushes the pace like he did against piotr Yan, and
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: it's just like Zila's forced to throw one hundred forty
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: significant strikes on the feet and we get a firefight
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: that way. Do you do you see that? Uh?
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: No, just I think us too hard to hit. He's
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: just not gonna be there for Sterling to throw that
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: many strikes against. I don't think that'd be the case.
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I didn't. I didn't think so either, but I
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: always do remember that like the Ol Joe Peter jan fight,
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: the one that ended in the DQ, I mean, al
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: Joe couldn't get takedowns. He was dead, but he just
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: came out guns blazing and just kept throwing, pawing the jab,
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: pushing the pace. I do wish this was in the
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: bigger octagon.
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: I don't think Zal has only been hit like forty
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: times most ever, I think in his UFC career, I
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: don't have it pulled up anymore around I want to say,
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: right around forties as he's ever been hit. But now
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: we got five rounds to work with, I'd be I'd
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: be pretty surprised if Sterling landed more than a hundred
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: total strikes in this fight, and I would guess that
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be less than seventy.
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm in agreement too. I just again the smaller
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: cage is the only thing scaring me a bit. But
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: with definitely monitoring this line. If alja like closes the
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: favorite or before lock Man, he could be fifty eight
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: percent or something like that. And again, I do think
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: he's a good play because I think when al Joe wins,
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: I do think he scores. I think he more than
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: likely is optimal on a card that I think is
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: low scoring. So I honestly actually think he's my preferred
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: play now. But my preferred route is the fight fade,
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: hoping Z thell all wins a striking base decision. Both
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: guys are not optimal and I do like and he's
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: a all lineup you can go to. Butceca or Ryan's
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: man pretty easily there. That's thirteen fights. I totally agree
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: in the sense of you said it from the top,
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: not your most favorite, that you're you're not looking forward
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: to this one most for a real life entertainment, but
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: for DFS. If we keep all thirteen, I think it's
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: a very interesting and solid car that could end up
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: with pretty low amount of dupes when it's all and
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: down up top. So that's all I care about. When
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: it's all said and done, what are your final thoughts
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: before we get down out of here.
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it should be a low duped winner
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: this weekend. But hopefully, hopefully it is Ben, Hopefully it's you,
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: Hopefully it's it's me. Hopefully somebody listening. But let's make
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: it a good card. Let's ship it, and that'll make
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: this code of funnel.
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, anytime you get some more money in the pocket,
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: that's absolutely fun. Again. If you do want content for
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: all these sports above, going on right now five days
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: for nineteen dollars. Otherwise, we got you covered in the
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: MMA streets again. Join the Nation bottom left. You can
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: check out all of our different packages. Appreciate everyone hanging out,
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: watching live, watching on playback. You are the real ones. Yeah,
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: appreciate that. Good luck to you as well. Pure. Hopefully
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: we get some fun fight Saturday. Hopefully we get some
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: shipping Nation logos to the top. Playoff Basketball, Playoff Hockey,
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: NFL Draft, PGA, MLB. It is a great weekend, indeed,
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: good luck to you, Big Marley, good luck to everyone
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: out there, be safe, good luck, peace
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: And se