Latest / Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast / Revealing the BEST Picks for Week 12 Right Now!
Transcript
- 0:03Yeah, welcome back. Targeting Winner is a college
- 0:06football betting podcast. We are getting ready for Week
- 0:0912, well into November, well into midweek action.
- 0:13It's a wonderful time to be alive.
- 0:14Most wonderful time of the year, Christmas.
- 0:16Maybe in this household, but not on this show.
- 0:19Maybe it's college football. I am Darren as always, I am
- 0:23joined by Pete from God knows where you are this week man.
- 0:26But it's good to see you. We haven't heard from in a few
- 0:28days. Good to see you breathing and
- 0:29living. We always appreciate that And
- 0:32Tim down in Florida. Tim, we'll start with you.
- 0:34How we doing today? Doing good.
- 0:36I'm in an undisclosed location back in the.
- 0:38Bunker, I was going to say I'm not sure what prison that is,
- 0:40but they have nicely painted walls so well, thank you for
- 0:43getting getting an up. Sale nice upscale.
- 0:47Stealth that they put you in. And Pete, how are we doing
- 0:50today? Not too bad, enjoying the
- 0:53Christmas season apparently. So all is good.
- 0:55I'm glad to be here and Eric I. Have one tree for each of you
- 0:58guys. I just want you to know.
- 1:01I want the pretty gold 1 back there.
- 1:03I don't know what that I think that's the crystal tree.
- 1:06This. I don't know what the hell this
- 1:07is and the green 1 is going to be a Grinch theme.
- 1:11I like that. OK, cool.
- 1:13Yeah, she she does good work. I don't know nothing to do with
- 1:17college football, but I did see an instructional video for some
- 1:22reason. It's a funny reel of a nurse who
- 1:25works in the ER and you go quick review with all these different
- 1:28little Christmas trees. No, no, no, no, do not put that
- 1:31up. She has experience with
- 1:34Christmas trees. I guess if.
- 1:36I could even just, if somebody could videotape the process of
- 1:40taking all this stuff out of the garage and if I had a dollar for
- 1:44every time she looked at something and said where did
- 1:46this go last year, I would be loaded.
- 1:49I I wouldn't even need to be doing this show or.
- 1:51Better get a lot of views. I mean, they have videos of
- 1:53people mowing lawns and and just speeding it up and, you know,
- 1:56watching mow the lawn and people like watch it so I'm sure.
- 2:00It's, I mean you. Guys do work man.
- 2:03But believe me when I tell you this is just the tip of the
- 2:06iceberg. It's.
- 2:07Oh, that's only one room in a house.
- 2:08That's it. Can't be the only room.
- 2:10I mean, I think I took you guys on a tour last year.
- 2:12It was just. Well, in July you still had a
- 2:14couple up and like down stairs I.
- 2:16Was the the Grinch tree has been up all year long just re themed
- 2:20depending on the time of year so.
- 2:22OK, red, white and blue for 4th or the.
- 2:24July Tree. Halloween Tree.
- 2:26Easter Tree, whatever Arbor Day, you know, whatever it is that
- 2:32she's got a theme for. But like I said, she does good
- 2:34work. It makes her happy.
- 2:36My garage looks like the backroom of Hobby Lobby in the
- 2:39offseason. Yeah.
- 2:40Whatever. Well, if she's.
- 2:43So all right, nobody cares about any of that crap.
- 2:45Let's get into why everybody watches us.
- 2:47Idiots. So we are starting week 12A
- 2:50lessened weekday slate tonight. We got a couple games on Friday
- 2:53which we're actually going to get into because Pete has a bet
- 2:56on both of those. There is one game tonight
- 2:59kicking off 7:30 Eastern and people start with you here
- 3:02because you do have a futures bet on one of these teams to win
- 3:06the Sunbelt. We've got Troy travelling to Old
- 3:09Dominion. This spread open at 11 1/2.
- 3:11Looking at DraftKings, it's down to Troy only getting 10 with a
- 3:15total of 53 1/2. Pete, don't know how hardcore
- 3:19you've been fouling Troy, other than maybe checking the
- 3:22standings every couple of weeks or so, but let's start with you.
- 3:25You got any thoughts or leans on tonight's game?
- 3:28Yeah, that's, I mean, that's about it.
- 3:29What I've been doing is just keeping an eye on them.
- 3:31I mean, I'm not that optimistic about them winning this game
- 3:33outright, which I would of course need for the win here.
- 3:36Total is 52 1/2. I I thought about the under
- 3:39here, but I decided not to play it just because I didn't figured
- 3:41I'd jinx myself by going with the under if I'm trying to get
- 3:44Troy to win because I think they're going to score a lot of
- 3:46points to do so. So I think it's a bit of a
- 3:48challenge here for for Troy this week.
- 3:50So I'd love to see him win. I'm going to keep an eye on it
- 3:52tonight, but I'm not overly optimistic, but it'd be really
- 3:55nice to see them win. Tim, any thoughts on this?
- 3:59Yeah, I was actually leaning towards younger as well, so I
- 4:01don't know if that bodes well for you or not, but if I'm as
- 4:05hot as I was last week, yeah, maybe that'll bode well for you.
- 4:07But yeah, I was leaning for the younger as well.
- 4:09I decided not to pull the trigger.
- 4:12Slight lean to Troy, but obviously I wish I would have
- 4:14done it at 11 1/2 as opposed to the 10.
- 4:18I know their quarterback got injured early in the year, but
- 4:20they they seem to turn it around with with the new guy behind the
- 4:23behind the line. But the Old Dominion apparently
- 4:26is a turnover machine. And I don't mean like
- 4:28defensively they force them. I mean like they fumble like
- 4:31there's no tomorrow. So asking a team that can't hold
- 4:35onto the ball to cover 10 worries me a tad If I had to bet
- 4:40this game it would be Troy plus the points if anything, but
- 4:45nothing official here for me all right let's get into Friday's
- 4:51two game slate. We got a couple of good ones
- 4:53here, some some ranked teams in action all right well God damn
- 5:02Cardinals losing the. I know what the heck happened
- 5:06there? That was that was just
- 5:07unexpected week. Yeah, it's been a crazy year.
- 5:11I mean, it's been really hard to call some of these games.
- 5:13It's crazy. It gets me anymore.
- 5:16Yeah, so, so total on this game, 51 1/2.
- 5:22I am playing it under on this game for a couple of reasons #1
- 5:27Louisville did look pretty pathetic last week.
- 5:30Clemson ranks in the bottom 25th nationally in place per minute,
- 5:33so I expect a bit of a slow grind, at least from their side.
- 5:36Either team's been all that explosive of late, like subnets,
- 5:39just arts yards per attempt or down nearly 1.3 versus versus
- 5:45last year. So that's a, that's a, that's a
- 5:47big deal, right? We've not seen the explosiveness
- 5:48here. So I think this will be
- 5:50suppressed. I don't, you know, I don't think
- 5:51it's going to be a really low scoring game, but something like
- 5:5427 or 20 would not surprise me. So that fits the under.
- 5:58So I'm going with one unit. I'm the under of 51 1/2.
- 6:02Tim, I know you'd love you some Clemson.
- 6:04Any thoughts here? Yeah, I mean, Louisville should
- 6:08win this game by all counts, but that's which is why in my gut,
- 6:12Dabo likes to mess up the works a little bit.
- 6:16Yeah, I can totally see this is if it was if this was in the
- 6:19RPO, it would be a hard pass for me.
- 6:21But I can totally see Clemson going in and just running away
- 6:26with this somehow. They shouldn't, but I can see
- 6:28them doing this. But yeah, it's for me.
- 6:31It definitely hard pass if it was in the RPO.
- 6:35Yeah, I mean, I, I have the slightest of hopes that
- 6:39Louisville can still make the ACC title game because that
- 6:42conference is such a dumpster fire.
- 6:45But they need to win out here. And I, I don't know, Miller Moss
- 6:48has not been the guy we had all hoped.
- 6:51We figured he gets with Jeff Brahm, the quarterback whisperer
- 6:54and Louisville would go on to great things.
- 6:56Has not happened so far. He's he has been average at
- 7:00best. SO I would avoid this as well.
- 7:03But see, really, yeah. I mean I'm hoping for Louisville
- 7:06because very anti Clemson. Well, it's always good to be
- 7:12anti Clemson. I agree.
- 7:14Any team in Orange, actually so. We like the Flyers.
- 7:18What are you talking? About Well, for football, here
- 7:21we go. I mean, come on, You know,
- 7:22Florida, Miami, Clemson, Yeah, all the orange.
- 7:25Just go away. All right.
- 7:28And the other day, Friday night, we've got Oregon hosting
- 7:31Minnesota. Was that their total 43 1/2 or
- 7:35favored by 25 1/2? Pete again, you you've got a bet
- 7:39here what you got? I do.
- 7:41So how many times have I played Minnesota at the under this this
- 7:45year? A number of times.
- 7:46A number of times I look at them.
- 7:47A number of times I played them this year.
- 7:49So the total that I got when I played it was 44 1/2.
- 7:51So let's come down a little bit to that 43 1/2, which does
- 7:54support the under. I'm going to play, right?
- 7:55It seems the money's going that direction.
- 7:58Minnesota's been a little better scoring than I thought they
- 8:00would be this year. But looking at what this game is
- 8:02going to do, I would imagine Oregon's going to get up by a
- 8:04couple pretty early ish and that I think it's going to turn into.
- 8:08And Minnesota just grinds anyway.
- 8:10And I think we're going to see Oregon kind of grinding some
- 8:12time as well because I think they will they'll be up and
- 8:15they'll probably run more than 65% of the time if they get
- 8:18ahead. And I expect that to happen.
- 8:21So eat the clock. They both have good punters.
- 8:23So I expect some field position being played here.
- 8:27Could be rainy. I'm expecting maybe some
- 8:29showers, which was going to lead to this under as well, which
- 8:32could end up where they're playing.
- 8:33That turf can get a little slick.
- 8:35So that could hurt in terms of field goals as well.
- 8:37So I think there's a number of factors here playing into this
- 8:40under. So I am playing under 1 unit,
- 8:44Minnesota Oregon 44 1/2. Jim, thoughts?
- 8:49It's just weird playing the under in any game involving
- 8:51Oregon. Usually you see them, you just
- 8:54bit, you know, over 'cause they're going to.
- 8:56They're good for 4045 by themselves.
- 8:59But yeah, with the weather and everything, the way they like to
- 9:02control the clock for Minnesota, yeah, I could see it going
- 9:05either way. It's just, it just feels weird.
- 9:07It's a weird bet for me. It it does and it took me all to
- 9:10look at this thing and scratch my head and say, do I really
- 9:12believe an under with Oregon? But right.
- 9:16So, well last week wasn't the Oregon Iowa game like 40 1/2 Tim
- 9:19and you and I were like what the hell?
- 9:21This makes absolutely no sense. What was it like 3418 to 16 or
- 9:26something like? That.
- 9:27Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I agree with what
- 9:29Pete said here there. There is no slower team when it
- 9:32comes to pace of play offensively than Minnesota.
- 9:34I don't see a scenario against Oregon they're going to try and
- 9:36go any quicker to keep them off the field.
- 9:39Oregon's got a couple injuries on the offensive side.
- 9:42They may have trouble piling on here as well.
- 9:45So yeah, I love that bet. So OK.
- 9:49I'll move right along. I think we got one of yours
- 9:51coming up here, Darren. Yeah, that's me.
- 9:55All right, so I've got a one unit play or no, I'm sorry.
- 9:57I have a 2 unit play actually, and I pulled a total.
- 10:01Yeah, I went totals. I'm going over this game here.
- 10:03Now it's 48 1/2 and I know that South Carolina's offense is
- 10:08terrible, but we've talked about the fired coach's bump that a
- 10:13lot of teams seemed to have. When head coach gets fired the
- 10:16the following week, the team is 7 and two against spread.
- 10:19Not while Shane Beamer wasn't fired here.
- 10:22Mike Shua, the offensive coordinator, was fired after a
- 10:24whopping 9 game stint as the OC of this team.
- 10:28And South Carolina stats were absolutely horrible offensively
- 10:31under this guy last year, 2024 S Carolina was great offensively,
- 10:36but there OC at that time left to take the head coaching job at
- 10:40App State. So I think with Shula leaving, I
- 10:44think it can only get better from here for for South
- 10:47Carolina. So the the two guys that are
- 10:49actually going to take over the play calling duties, both were
- 10:53on the offensive staff in 2024 when Lenora Sellers had quite a
- 10:56bit of success. So I'm, I'm expecting South
- 10:59Carolina's offense to improve enough to get this there.
- 11:03And despite as bad as they've been, I mean, they're still
- 11:05averaging almost 20 points a game.
- 11:06And let's face it, nobody's putting South Carolina offense
- 11:10together in 2025. But you look at the other side,
- 11:14first of all, South Carolina's defense is still really, really
- 11:16bad. That's going to be a problem
- 11:17against Texas A&M, whose offense is really, really, really good.
- 11:20Every game this year except one, they put up 31 points.
- 11:24And the only game they didn't was they put up 16 against
- 11:26Auburn. Auburn's defense is way better
- 11:29than South Carolina's, and all this talk about the A&M defense
- 11:32being good. They have been.
- 11:34But if you look at some of the games that they've played
- 11:36already, they've given up 24 to Texas, San Antonio, 22 to Utah
- 11:40State, 40 to Notre Dame, 42 to Arkansas, 25 to LSU.
- 11:46And even last week against a freshman quarterback making his
- 11:48first start, Missouri still put up 17.
- 11:50So this is a defense that can be had to some extent.
- 11:54So I'm looking at A&M to get 31 with no problem, which means I
- 11:57only need to get 20 out of South Carolina to make this happen.
- 12:01So I'm thinking the coordinator change is going to give them a
- 12:03little bit of a spark. I don't know if they're going to
- 12:06stay within the spread here, but if this ended up like 38 to 17
- 12:11or something like that, it wouldn't surprise me.
- 12:13I, I think you're going to see a little bit better effort
- 12:15offensively from South Carolina. So I went 2 units on the over
- 12:20and Pete, I'm dying to hear what you have to say because I know
- 12:22you're the you're the totals guy.
- 12:23I didn't even check with you. I was just like, they can't be
- 12:26this bad. I like it.
- 12:30I like it. Yeah.
- 12:30So I I kicked this game around a bit.
- 12:32My first thought, of course, was the under right.
- 12:33And the first number I had out of FanDuel was 47 1/2 and I was
- 12:37thinking under, but that everything you just said, I
- 12:40agree, right. So my thoughts were shifting
- 12:42that, well, maybe in this case this could be an over because of
- 12:46the change and that, that looks like there's money flowing that
- 12:49way 'cause you're over under 48 1/2 as you have to slide.
- 12:51I have 47 1/2. So I think you've got on the
- 12:54right side of the money at the moment.
- 12:55I think it makes sense. I, I agree with your, with your
- 12:57prognosis. This is the one I wasn't really
- 12:59sure where to go with it. South Carolina, it's going to be
- 13:01bad or are they going to look a little better?
- 13:03I, I agree with you, I think they'll look a little better
- 13:06this week. So I think, I think it's good
- 13:08that. Tim, I know this involves your
- 13:11your favorite team of 2025 that's not named Florida State.
- 13:14What do you? Think about this game.
- 13:17Well, I like the bet. I do not care what the total
- 13:20ends up being as long as Texas A&M wins I'm it's nice to see
- 13:24Marcel Reed finally getting some run when they're talking about
- 13:27the Heisman, you know Urban Meyer on his podcast and some
- 13:31other people and Josh Pate and all the finally giving hey, pay
- 13:35attention to the guy down in College Station.
- 13:38So that will help out my bet a lot.
- 13:40I think if they keep winning, I got it.
- 13:44This should almost. I think if this, if they get one
- 13:46more win, I think I might almost lock it up.
- 13:49I think as long as Vanderbilt doesn't get by them, they should
- 13:54lock them up in the championship game.
- 13:56That'll be good for my future bet there.
- 13:59The win total bet already hit and I'm looking for see what the
- 14:02buyouts are a little bit early for.
- 14:04I have to check with get with you Pete, and check with that.
- 14:06If they're offering anything for the Heisman, I have to place my
- 14:08Heisman bet with you. But yeah, go A&M.
- 14:12Total be damned. Just win the game, baby.
- 14:15Just win. As some old guy once said, just
- 14:18win, baby. All right.
- 14:24What's the next game? The next game, oh, it's one of
- 14:27mine. The West Virginia hate you've
- 14:32been spewing the last few weeks. Is I know I.
- 14:36It's not acceptable, not acceptable.
- 14:37As few days. Yeah, but I guess I'm going to
- 14:42spew a little bit more hate this week.
- 14:46Well, we got the two time zone travel.
- 14:47Here we go West Virginia travelling to Arizona State.
- 14:51I like Arizona State at home. They're very good on 3rd down.
- 14:56They can stay. I think they can control the
- 14:58ball a lot more. They'll stay on the field.
- 15:00They can score more points. West Virginia, they like to run
- 15:03like 5 plays a minute. So they're going to there's
- 15:05going to be plenty of scoring in this game.
- 15:08I think they could sputter out a couple times.
- 15:10I think Arizona State gets a few stops, especially on on 3rd
- 15:13down. Force them into punting and they
- 15:16pull away. I do like Arizona covering the
- 15:1812 1/2 and a double feature for this one.
- 15:22I also like to over a 47 1/2 just because you know, for the
- 15:26little amount of time West Virginia is going to be on the
- 15:29field, if they're third down trends continue, I think they're
- 15:32still going to put up some points.
- 15:34I probably only need about, you know, 1010 to 17 from them.
- 15:39I think Arizona State can take care of the rest, but I think
- 15:42it's going to be a like a 48, you know, 48 to 31 score or
- 15:46something like that. I, I suspect a high scoring game
- 15:49hits the over. So I like over 47 1/2 and I'd
- 15:53like Arizona State to cover 12 1/2.
- 15:56Your thoughts? I've.
- 16:01How West Virginia might have found a quarterback in Scotty
- 16:03Fox, I don't know. Well.
- 16:08That'll help the over. Man, is, is, is Levin even
- 16:13playing in this game? I know you missed last week.
- 16:16I don't even know if he's in or not.
- 16:17That would certainly help your both of your bets.
- 16:20But Oh yeah, for sure. Oh, man, kind of kind of like
- 16:23West Virginia been doing the last couple weeks.
- 16:24I mean, I hope for your sake you get it right.
- 16:26But I'm I'm against this West Virginia slander, not going to
- 16:29lie. They've been.
- 16:31Improved exactly. They've come along with the
- 16:36garbage we saw. I mean, they're certainly
- 16:37improving. So that's a good Oh yeah, they
- 16:39were absolute trash. I just can't, maybe I just can't
- 16:41get that out of my mind. I was like, God, they look
- 16:43horrible. They they look so bad, but
- 16:46they're looking better, so Rich Rod's doing his thing or
- 16:48whatever it's let's start to look better so.
- 16:50Our after taste of mediocrity. So just never leaves Crazy 10
- 17:00yes, we're going in order here. So now we have oh, U tap.
- 17:04I think U tap. Oh boy.
- 17:09OK, we got the they're traveling up to Missouri and they are not
- 17:15good. They're averaging about 20
- 17:16points a game. Missouri isn't at or Missouri
- 17:19State isn't averaging that much more.
- 17:23They like to run the ball. The weather is going to be fine.
- 17:26I don't think that's going to help either team.
- 17:28Both of these offenses aren't really that wonderful.
- 17:31Missouri does have a better defense or Missouri State.
- 17:35Sorry, I just keep rambling on, but I like Missouri State to
- 17:39cover. I'm leaning towards the under of
- 17:4249 1/2, but I'm expecting a game, you know, 24 to 10,
- 17:46something like that. So I do like Missouri State to
- 17:51cover. What was the line on that one?
- 17:59I. Forget to the line but I do have
- 18:00the under at 49 1/2. I think the line was what 6 or
- 18:06something like that. I.
- 18:07Think it's it was 4 1/2. I can look real quick.
- 18:10Hold on. Yeah, that over under has gone
- 18:14up. It was 48 1/2.
- 18:15It's 49 1/2. Now, so that's.
- 18:17Yeah, I got 4 1/2 Missouri State favored.
- 18:21Yeah, 4 1/2 as well. So that's my bet on that one.
- 18:25So under the 49 1/2 terrible game, that's could be a a
- 18:34candidate for snoozefest of the week Pete for for next week.
- 18:38Yeah, might be something not to watch here, but I looked at it.
- 18:41I mean, I like your hunger here. I like watching somebody
- 18:43parallel park a bus. Like you watch it and you're
- 18:46like, huh, why am I watching this?
- 18:49It's great, I guess. I don't know.
- 18:51Not a game I'm going to be tuning into.
- 18:53I think The Hunger is a good play here.
- 18:54I. Well, hopefully it's on ESPN.
- 18:56We won't have to watch it because we won't have it because
- 18:58we have YouTube TV, so. Hopefully it's on ESPN.
- 19:01We're safe. All right, enough of my picks.
- 19:05Let's move on. We got Oklahoma, Alabama.
- 19:09Whose is this? That is mine.
- 19:12So total on this game that I have that I bet it's 46 1/2.
- 19:18I am leaning heavily meaning obvious, I'm betting this.
- 19:22I'm leaning heavily into the fact that this is SEC game
- 19:25that's going to turn into a grind that like these big ones
- 19:27typically do, right When you get 2 big SEC teams playing each
- 19:31other it it tends to be a bit of a grind and that's what I fully
- 19:36expect will happen here. I mean, the weather's not going
- 19:38to be a factor. Defence, Alabama's defence is,
- 19:42is pretty gosh darn good. So that's certainly playing in
- 19:46here. There's a lot of pressure from
- 19:48Alabama's defense when quarterback drops back, which is
- 19:51going to be a problem, and it's going to keep the quarterback
- 19:53running and moving, which is going to disrupt the continuity
- 19:57of Oklahoma. So I think it's going to be one
- 19:59of those games, right, where it's like a three and out kind
- 20:02of thing and just a lot of thinking.
- 20:05Duncan that's what I expect to see.
- 20:07So I think it's going to be a good game.
- 20:09So I do want to watch this one unlike the last one, but I do
- 20:12not think it's going to be high scoring.
- 20:13I do expect Alabama to win this game.
- 20:14So maybe something like, you know, 27 to 14 or something like
- 20:18that would maybe 17 would not would not surprise me.
- 20:21So I feel pretty confident in this one.
- 20:23So I like the under 46 1/2 one units.
- 20:26Yeah, I like both defenses here I would love and Oklahoma will
- 20:29win and really help A&M out. That would so personal
- 20:33preference for Oklahoma, but yeah, I I kind of like that bet.
- 20:36I like the defenses here. Yeah, I mean, unless John Metir
- 20:41suddenly remembers that he was supposed to be good or played
- 20:44like he did in September, I don't know how Oklahoma's going
- 20:47to, you know, surpass 17 here, but their defense is certainly
- 20:52capable of of keeping Alabama totaled down as well.
- 20:56So yeah, I I do like this if Metir all of a sudden, you know,
- 21:01just starts lighting it up, maybe we're sweating this little
- 21:04because Alabama's defense isn't anything to write home about,
- 21:07but just just haven't seen it out of a tear ever since he came
- 21:10back from his hand surgery. So I also want Oklahoma to win,
- 21:16but for a completely different reason.
- 21:17They're currently sitting on 7. I have a future them at plus
- 21:21money winning at least a regular season games so I would love to
- 21:25not sweat that. They do have two home games
- 21:28after this. One of them is against LSU, so
- 21:30it's. There we.
- 21:32Go. But yeah, I would love Oklahoma
- 21:35to win this like 21 to 20 or something like that.
- 21:38That would be. Wonderful.
- 21:39That would actually give me, I was doing some numbers for our
- 21:42future stuff. I'd actually be positive and all
- 21:44my futures bets if Oklahoma hits, whether Louisville will,
- 21:48well, Louisville wins a conference, then we're way ahead
- 21:50but not looking likely. But yeah, I, I, we do.
- 21:55We didn't officially give out a money line sprinkle, but
- 22:00wouldn't be against throwing half a unit on the Sooners here.
- 22:03I like. I like.
- 22:05It oh, what's up next? Oh, the Belichicks.
- 22:11On a Rd. For us, one more than. 17 God,
- 22:14what a horrible. Game here's.
- 22:16The Who's best of the league guys knit UTEP.
- 22:20Break out. LeBron, I wonder this, this is
- 22:23the Bronx butt cheeks game. I went all over the place in
- 22:26this stupid thing. And then I first, my first
- 22:28thought, North Carolina, they stink under, right?
- 22:30That was my first thought. And it looked a little closer.
- 22:32I was like, well, you know, they've been scored a little bit
- 22:34of late and you know, they could score a little bit and that's a
- 22:37really low #38 1/2 is the number that I have to say on the slide
- 22:40right there. So I went all over the map on
- 22:42this thing trying to figure out. So I thought, well, maybe I
- 22:46should, just shouldn't play it because I'm just on both sides
- 22:48of this thing. But that number seem pretty low
- 22:51to me. And I think North Carolina's
- 22:52offense has rebounded a bit, right?
- 22:54It seems to become they're hardly setting the world on
- 22:56fire, but they've gotten better. I think they can score some,
- 23:00right? It's a really low number.
- 23:01I expect Wake to score some on them.
- 23:04So, and Wake does tend to play a faster tempo at home.
- 23:08So I expect to see some of that turn going here.
- 23:10So, you know, I, I, I said this is a tough call.
- 23:13I'm not highly, highly confident in this one, but I just have a
- 23:15feel. This is kind of after I went
- 23:17through tons of data, it was a bit of a gut feel.
- 23:19So I'm actually playing it over here.
- 23:21So over 38 1/2 units. Interesting.
- 23:26What's North Carolina's record, Darren?
- 23:27Do you have an off hand? Because you got a, you got a win
- 23:29for a little bit on them? Well that was that was shot the
- 23:32hell like 3 weeks ago. They have been playing better,
- 23:35but it's been it's been because of their defense and Gio Lopez
- 23:39has been complete ass since he came over.
- 23:42Sorry, it's just a fact. They're they're they run slow.
- 23:45They're they're, they're like the AC CS version of Minnesota.
- 23:48They are in no rush to push the ball down the field.
- 23:52But defensively they're really good.
- 23:54They've been setting up their offense with with some promising
- 23:57drives in the last couple of games.
- 23:58So they're turning it around. But like Pete said about Wake
- 24:02Forest and North Carolina has an off game, Wade Force could get
- 24:06into 30s without too much trouble here.
- 24:08I kind of like they're playing better than I gave them credit
- 24:11for coming into the year. So.
- 24:13But yeah, 38 1/2 at first, like Pete, I was like, yeah, North
- 24:16Carolina's in this game. They won't get 38 the next two
- 24:19weeks put together. Like, you know what, Gio's not
- 24:22against the old pick sticks or turning the ball over.
- 24:26They do have a bad. Off.
- 24:29Yeah, Wake Forest could be set up with some short fields here
- 24:32and easily get this to the over with no problem.
- 24:35Nice. I wish all the games would go
- 24:38the way we see them. Be wonderful.
- 24:41Be great, we'd be geniuses. Mississippi State and Missouri.
- 24:46This is me simple handicap here. First of all, I got 6 1/2 on
- 24:50FanDuel. It is heavily juiced, but
- 24:52everywhere else I have access to was at 7:00.
- 24:54So I laid the little extra juice to get the 6 1/2 on FanDuel.
- 24:59Listen, Missouri's got a freshman quarterback making his
- 25:01second rear start. You've got one of the best
- 25:03running backs in the country going up against a defense that
- 25:05can't stop the run. Hello.
- 25:08This is not rocket science. Run the ball.
- 25:10Run the ball 50 times. Don't throw the ball.
- 25:13I mean, some quick numbers here. Let's see Mississippi State last
- 25:18in the SEC and rush yards allowed per game with 176.
- 25:22That is a ton of rush yards for an SEC defense, and they do like
- 25:27to pass. First of all, Blake Chapin was
- 25:29her. He is listed as probable as of
- 25:31last night. Whether he's 100%, not sure, but
- 25:35Mississippi State does like to pass Fluff Bothwell, who's a
- 25:38nice addition, but only 500 and 138 yards.
- 25:43I think he's got for the year. But Missouri is also first in
- 25:46the SEC and pass defense, only allowing 143 yards a game.
- 25:50So Missouri's defense plays to to Mississippi State's strength,
- 25:55Missouri's strength running the ball that plays right into what
- 25:58Mississippi State cannot do well at all.
- 26:00So I didn't really go much further than that basic handicap
- 26:04cop, outcall whatever you want, just run the friggin ball 50
- 26:08times, wear them down the second-half win this going away
- 26:11by 1721 points. I I didn't go 2 units on this
- 26:16because it just seemed like it made too much sense.
- 26:18But and Missouri's got to have this one and Mississippi State's
- 26:23run defense is terrible. So one unit, Missouri lay in the
- 26:256th and 1/2. Just run the damn ball and don't
- 26:28run the. Damn ball.
- 26:29I mean, you break that. That's it.
- 26:32Just run it. You've got the best running back
- 26:34in the world, for God's sakes. I like how in our old age we've
- 26:37all turned in to build Parcells. Just run the balls.
- 26:42I mean, you know, I, I look heavily at this under here, 51
- 26:461/2, if they're going to run the damn ball, which I expect they
- 26:48will run the damn ball, that under is really enticing.
- 26:50I didn't play it, but I kind of like that number because that's
- 26:52a pretty inflated number for me with a team with a team that's
- 26:55going to run a lot. So that is a definite lean
- 26:58there. So if you want a little sprinkle
- 26:59of something here, I do do kind of like that under at the 51 1/2
- 27:02here. Now we got the last one.
- 27:07This is a very important game for me.
- 27:09We got BYU hosting TCU, OK, I need BYU to win for my win
- 27:14total. I win put some square in the
- 27:17driver's seat facing off against Cincinnati I believe next week
- 27:21for a spot in the Big 12 title game, which I also have them for
- 27:25the title future. So yeah, this is this is a big
- 27:29one. So I got the BYUI got them
- 27:32laying 4 1/2. Big part of it, you have TCU
- 27:36coming up into on the road. The last time I checked, they
- 27:41didn't build a Dome up in Utah. So this game will be played
- 27:45outside. It's going to be a probably the
- 27:47low 40s, maybe even high 30s by the time the kickoff rolls
- 27:51around. And you know, BYU thinks, you
- 27:54know, cold weather, thin air night game.
- 27:57That's perfect. So that's, you know, and you
- 28:01know, TCU, they like to pass. They pass the ball a lot.
- 28:03But when that ball freezes, you know, they're down there in
- 28:06Texas. So I'm thinking they're not
- 28:09going to like the cold at all. I like BYU to pound the ball.
- 28:12Just run the damn ball, wear them down, pull away at the end.
- 28:16And I like BYU laying 4 1/2 at home against TCU.
- 28:24Ellis, I'm. Just going to say, bro, you've
- 28:25been in your Florida shell too long.
- 28:27You do know Texas gets winter, right?
- 28:29They get snow and things. That's not going to bother them.
- 28:34But TCU, man, they're chewing in scissor for me.
- 28:36They're like my Washington Capitals.
- 28:37I can't figure out to bet on them or against them.
- 28:40As soon as I saw you put that bet up, I'm like TCU, keep it
- 28:44away from me. I want nothing to do with it.
- 28:46But I do agree with what you said.
- 28:48BYU could certainly be in a situation to run the ball with
- 28:50RJ Martin, keep Josh Hoover and Lauren Frogs off the field.
- 28:54I do like this, but if if they if BYU covers, it won't be
- 28:59because TCU hates the weather. They they, yeah.
- 29:02It'll be alright. Well, it won't be.
- 29:03It won't be a snow issue, I think.
- 29:04I mean, that weather line, if it does rain in the second-half,
- 29:07right, that ball's going to get slick, The field's going to get
- 29:09slick. That will be a problem.
- 29:10So rain is an issue. Able to suppress scoring.
- 29:13So I mean, I kind of like that under and the 51, another
- 29:15sprinkle, maybe the under because of the weather.
- 29:17If it doesn't, OK, it's going to be closer to that.
- 29:19But yeah, if it rains, that will absolutely impact the
- 29:23second-half of the scan. They do not have one like they
- 29:25have it up in Utah, though. I mean, I was up in Utah in
- 29:30August. There's still snow up there.
- 29:31So, so it'll be an it'll be, it'll be an adventure, that's
- 29:39for sure. So, all right, Well, any final
- 29:43thoughts you want to move on to the RPO?
- 29:46Let's RPO it. I came in with no thoughts.
- 29:49Let's get going. I rarely have thoughts.
- 29:54We go, all right, Darren, take us through it.
- 29:58All right, Notre Dame laying 12 1/2 at Pittsburgh with a total
- 30:01of 55 1/2. Tim, we'll start with you.
- 30:05This is a hard pass for me. I'm not going to touch it, not
- 30:08at all. Notre Dame by three scores beat.
- 30:12Yeah, total total's 55 1/2. I actually thought going over
- 30:15here, I didn't, but I think Notre Dame's going to score a
- 30:17bunch and they're going to win this game, I guess.
- 30:19Michigan laying 12 1/2 at Northwestern, total of 40 1/2.
- 30:23Pete, what's on your team? I kicked.
- 30:26I kicked the tires all over this thing.
- 30:27So I thought, is this the time after a buy they come out and
- 30:30see what that offense can do. That's the only.
- 30:32So that's why I didn't play it because I thought that number
- 30:33was suppressed. Otherwise I would have gone the
- 30:35under. But I don't know what that
- 30:36offense might do after a buy, so we'll.
- 30:37See what happens, Yeah. I was leaning over but I will
- 30:43run. I will.
- 30:44I would bet Michigan the laying at 12 1/2.
- 30:47I like it. Yeah, I got no thoughts here.
- 30:50I mean. I'm kind of biased because you
- 30:51know, my old office buddy's kid plays for Michigan so I probably
- 30:55bet them they'll win anytime anyway.
- 30:56But OK, well then that then why? Not play it on the offensive
- 31:01line. Yeah, I would.
- 31:04I would run away from this game hardcore South Florida, the
- 31:08Bulls good chance to meet the group of five Rep laying 10 at
- 31:11Navy total of 64 1/2. Yeah.
- 31:14What do you think? I'm leaning Navy but at the end
- 31:17of the day I'll pass. But I'm I'm starting to like
- 31:19Navy there with the tent. And that feels, feels like a big
- 31:22number for, for, for Navy 64 if I mean, I didn't touch it 'cause
- 31:27that number just confused me. I was like, yeah, I think they
- 31:29could eventually win the game, but I don't have.
- 31:32Yeah, Blake Hormat didn't play against Notre Dame last week.
- 31:35I don't know what his status is for this.
- 31:37Obviously, I would need to know that before making a play of any
- 31:39kind, so for now, it's in the past.
- 31:42Arkansas getting 6 as they visit the Brian Kelly list.
- 31:46LSU Tigers total of 57 1/2. Hey, what do you think?
- 31:50I think LSU is going to keel over and die on the field.
- 31:52So at the end of the day, I was going to go under on this.
- 31:54I I didn't play it, but I just don't think they're going to do
- 31:56much of anything. So that's my thought.
- 32:00I like LSU. I'm not sure about their odds to
- 32:02win the lawsuit against Brian Kelly coming up, but I like LSU.
- 32:06Here the latest 6. No thoughts here in Arkansas
- 32:11defense and LSU offense. I don't even know if they can
- 32:14take advantage of it now. I wouldn't bet this game with
- 32:18your guys money so forget it. Iowa getting 7 as they travel
- 32:23out West for this hardcore rivalry that's been going on for
- 32:26at least a year. Total of 48 1/2.
- 32:31Tim, what do you think? I like the over.
- 32:35I like the over 48 1/2. I got the two time zone things
- 32:38right pass on the game, but if I was going to bet this I'd run to
- 32:41the 48 1/2 over. Pete.
- 32:44Yeah, it's interesting. Then usually I say Iowa equals
- 32:47under no matter what, but in this case I I think it might be
- 32:49right. But I didn't didn't go that way.
- 32:51Yeah, I agree with that. I would I would lay the seven
- 32:54with with USC as well if I had to.
- 32:57I have the ACC the most cluster after the conference that we've
- 33:01seen. No offense to the Big 12, but AC
- 33:03CS trash Virginia getting 4 at Duke. 58 1/2 Pete, what do you
- 33:09think? I prefer they wouldn't play the
- 33:11game. We'll just move on to the next
- 33:12week, so I'm good. I got nothing.
- 33:14Yep I would jump. That looks like a trap of
- 33:18Virginia getting 4I do like the under though. 58 1/2.
- 33:22I like the under. Yeah, again, much like Navy, I
- 33:25don't know if Chandler Morris is playing.
- 33:26He got knocked out of the loss last week to Wake Forest.
- 33:29So if you're interested in playing this game, see if see if
- 33:31he's in or not before you make it a bet.
- 33:33But I got nothing here. Ah, the fighting James
- 33:36Franklin's playing seven at the fighting Jonathan Smith, total
- 33:41of 48 1/2. Yeah.
- 33:42What do you think? Money line sprinkle.
- 33:47Let's go Penn State here. How is that a sprinkle when
- 33:51they're favored by 7? +7 OK, never mind, it's not a
- 33:56sprinkle. And where are your glasses,
- 33:59Pierce? Right here I need them.
- 34:01You need them. It looks like a plus sign from
- 34:03here. I thought that looked funny.
- 34:05I'm like why are they? Why are they getting?
- 34:08Seven paid help. I'll say that the policeman pull
- 34:09you over. Sparty just got bent over by the
- 34:12NCAA, so I don't know if they're demoralized or they come out
- 34:15pissed off. I think option B is they come
- 34:18out pissed, pissed off. So I think they might actually
- 34:21do something in this game. So I yeah, I'm intrigued to see
- 34:24what Sparty does here. I don't know if I'd do that
- 34:26then, but it's it's gonna be an interesting game, I think.
- 34:29Yeah, watching anything involving Aiden Childs makes me
- 34:32drink more than I probably should, so I would just avoid
- 34:34this game all together. You got to have eggnog up there
- 34:37by now, right? I believe Stewart's will be
- 34:40having it shortly. I I have not seen the commercial
- 34:42where it's in stock. Yeah.
- 34:49And spend this game on the toilet, then have to watch a
- 34:51Giles drive that. Sounds great.
- 34:52Well, you. Know all right Florida oh God
- 34:58they were stiff. Dude, if if you found a team
- 35:00that could quit. Holy crap last week Florida
- 35:03Lagna gets benched. The other guy comes in, he sucks
- 35:06too. What a mess. 14 against all your
- 35:10guys favorite team Lane Kiffin and old miss Tim.
- 35:16Bank Kiffin equals pass. I'm not betting it.
- 35:20I'm not betting in the rest of the year.
- 35:21I'm not going to do it. Pete, you didn't go a week last
- 35:24year without betting something involving Lane Kiffin and Ole
- 35:26Miss. What?
- 35:27What do you think here? Yeah.
- 35:28I mean, they're probably going to score 80 this weekend.
- 35:30Florida. So yeah, I mean, I would be all
- 35:32over Ole Miss. I I, I didn't touch you because
- 35:34I had enough bets, but I thought about it.
- 35:36I would definitely take Ole Miss.
- 35:37I don't blame you. Florida cost me a perfect week
- 35:40last week. Yeah, but the good thing was by
- 35:42the second quarter, I didn't have to watch the rest of the
- 35:43game. So.
- 35:46Oh, God. I mean, I've lay 24 with Ole
- 35:49Miss, and that was a lie. Nothing I saw before last week
- 35:51leads me to believe that they're even remotely All right.
- 35:56Another game for Tim. He's got some Utah futures.
- 35:58They are laying 7 1/2 going to Mailer with a total of 59 1/2.
- 36:02Pete, what do you think about this one?
- 36:04Oh, I like you tall day in this game.
- 36:07I think they you can lay that lay those points and feel pretty
- 36:09comfortable about it. But that's that's my thought.
- 36:12Tim. Heavy lean towards the under
- 36:15here. That's one reason.
- 36:16But yeah, I'm looking the under, yeah.
- 36:19I see that. Yeah, I would lean Utah, but the
- 36:22hook scares me, so wouldn't bend this one.
- 36:25Plus, I I can't figure out Baylor for the life Beginners.
- 36:29Yeah. All right, another SEC match.
- 36:30Texas, they need to win out to possibly be a playoff team.
- 36:34They're getting 6 1/2 at Georgia, total of 48 1/2.
- 36:38Tim, what do you think? I'd run with Georgia.
- 36:42I think just Georgia, you know, at home.
- 36:44Doesn't matter who they're playing.
- 36:45I think they're going to cover here.
- 36:46I think it's it. It might be ugly.
- 36:48I don't know. For some reason I'm feeling it's
- 36:50going to be bad. Go to Georgia.
- 36:53I agree, Pete. Yeah, I mean we saw multiple
- 36:56grind fest of this game last year.
- 36:58Texas has shown they cannot beat Georgia period.
- 37:01I don't think they're going to here.
- 37:03Yeah, I think I would. I would definitely go to.
- 37:06Georgia, I read somewhere today that we're talking about like
- 37:10the downfall of Georgia's defense in regards to sacks.
- 37:14They said in the two games last year against Texas, Georgia had
- 37:1713 sacks and they only have like 11 this year or something like
- 37:21that. They they had more sacks in the
- 37:22two games against Texas than they have all of this year's.
- 37:25So bars do with that what you want.
- 37:28All right, UCLA's getting 31 1/2.
- 37:34I don't even know why I put this one on here visiting and maybe
- 37:37because Ohio State, I don't know, They just haven't looked
- 37:40explosive. But again, we're not giving up
- 37:41any points. You don't need to be total of 47
- 37:451/2 feet. What do you think?
- 37:48Yeah, I mean, it's a pass in this game, but Ohio State's
- 37:50offense has not been impressive, and that's going to be a problem
- 37:53for them the playoffs coming off that.
- 37:54I mean, the defense is great, but that offense has really not
- 37:57been what I expect it to be. So I mean, they're going to win
- 37:59this game. They'll probably score 50 or
- 38:00something, but it's UCLA so that doesn't matter.
- 38:03Yeah. Yeah, I'm seriously leaning
- 38:06towards UCLA with the 31 1/2, but yeah, pass on this game.
- 38:10I'm just going to pass. I want nothing to do it like
- 38:13this could be a game where Ohio State covers, but it'll be like
- 38:1634 to nothing. You know?
- 38:19I can. I can see them pitching a shut
- 38:20out here and while not looking super impressive offensively in
- 38:23the process and the one we all the team, we all love because we
- 38:27know Tim loves his team. But the the fighting enter
- 38:32Sandman's getting 14 as they visit Florida State total of 55
- 38:361/2 beat. You go first because we're going
- 38:38to save Tim for the last time. I I forgot they were still
- 38:41playing this year, so they they pretty much shouldn't.
- 38:43We'll be fine. Moving on to Tim.
- 38:46Would you guys laugh at me if I said a money line sprinkle on
- 38:49Virginia Tech? No.
- 38:51No. I thought about that, but I was
- 38:56like, you know what, I I don't want to go that hardcore, but
- 38:59honestly at Virginia Tech went in here and gave him a game and
- 39:02had a chance to win. Wouldn't surprise me one bit.
- 39:06So you're having a good week and you get down to this game.
- 39:09You know what took a half unit on Virginia Tech money line.
- 39:11What the hell? Why not?
- 39:13Tim, tell me why Florida State's going to win this game.
- 39:17I'm not so sure they are, but I do like the under for this. 1.
- 39:23If they do happen to lose this game, Norvell will beat Lane
- 39:27Kiffin in firings. He got fired at the airport.
- 39:30I think Norvell will be fired in the locker room before he even
- 39:34gets his post game speech of it. Like don't even go in the locker
- 39:36room just get out. Just keep walking.
- 39:38Just keep walking. There's your car at your parking
- 39:40spot. Just go home.
- 39:42They have to win this game. They do.
- 39:45He wants to keep his job. I don't know why that's a bridge
- 39:47too far after what's happened already, but I would like for
- 39:52him to win. I I still think getting rid of
- 39:54them this early is a bad idea, so we'll talk about that later
- 39:58on, but I like the under all. Right.
- 40:02Final answer. Slap in here, wrap this baby up.
- 40:06All right. Oh, there it is.
- 40:12All right. Who wants to go first?
- 40:15Oh. I'll go first.
- 40:16I'm on the top of the page. So first of all, I am positive
- 40:19finally. So I'm very happy about that.
- 40:21So I got both Friday games, Clemson, Louisville, under 51
- 40:251/2 on the unit. Also Minnesota, Oregon under 44
- 40:291/2 also in the unit. North Carolina, Wake Forest over
- 40:3338 1/2. I'm playing kind of the
- 40:35opposite, my normal North Carolina, Atlanta play here.
- 40:37So I'm interested in that. And finally, Oklahoma, Alabama
- 40:41under 46 1/2 Pitbull SEC slugfest.
- 40:45OK. I am coming off A5 and a week.
- 40:48Thank you very much. I did have a bet couple bets
- 40:52this week. I had Toledo over Miami of Ohio
- 40:55and I also had the over. So I'm one and one there.
- 40:58So six and one in my last 7 bets.
- 41:00But this week I have Utah, Missouri State under 49 1/2, BYU
- 41:05-4 1/2 over TCU, Arizona State -12 1/2 over West Virginia.
- 41:11And I also have the over in that game of 47 1/2.
- 41:14What you got there? Well, I had a loss, but it was
- 41:18probably the one of the best college football games of the
- 41:20year to watch even though it didn't work out in the win
- 41:22column at Akron to beat Kent State.
- 41:26They scored eighteen straight in the fourth quarter to take it to
- 41:28overtime but did not get the ball 1st and that went as you
- 41:31would. Expect.
- 41:32But I have two plays this week. 2 units on the South Carolina
- 41:34Texas A&M game going over 48 1/2 and one unit on Missouri laying
- 41:376 1/2 over Mississippi. OK, All right, well, you started
- 41:43the show. I'll end the show.
- 41:44Thank you all for watching. Please don't forget to like and
- 41:46subscribe to our channel and on Spotify.
- 41:49Leave us all your bets in the comments section.
- 41:51Like to know what you're betting on and leave us a review.
- 41:54That'll help us out a lot. If for no other reason, you can
- 41:57watch all my bloopers every week.
- 41:58So it should be entertaining as well as hopefully lucrative for
- 42:02you guys. So that's our show for week 12.
- 42:05Thank you for watching. We'll see you next week.