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Episode 75 - 7/12/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 75 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Friday. Our work week has come to an
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end. We got a big weekend ahead here,
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guys, steaming into the weekend as it continues to be hot.
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As you know what, I left San Diego, came to Boston.
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It's still 100°. So either way, guys, let's see
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if we can end our week on a hot note.
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I have a four pack of sweats for you today, including three Major
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League Baseball bats, couple favorites, as well as a very
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sharp reverse line move on an on a home dog tonight.
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And then I got to play in the WNBA, which is both a market
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move as well as a rhythm system match.
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We're going to get to rhythm here in a second because they
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helped us catch a big total last night.
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Hopefully you got the best of the number.
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And then on a Friday, you guys know what it is.
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It's biting in the arena. UFC Octagon.
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I did find one bout that caught my eye.
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It doesn't check off every single box.
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It's not a perfect play, but there are a bunch of reasons to
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lean in terms of a data perspective on this one biter.
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So I will have some action here for you in the UFC for tomorrow.
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Now looking back to her last night.
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Bust out the brooms, baby. How about a nice little three
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and O sleep sweep, little golf clap, golf clap 3 and O + 2.52
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units had a bunch of good hits. One was the Mariners didn't have
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to sweat that thing at all. They won about 25 nothing.
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Just kidding. I think it was 11 nothing, but
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that was great. Often and early.
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Remember we talked about anytime you get a young pitcher getting
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called up to Major League Baseball for his first start,
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what's the automatic early move? It was against our guy.
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Was it Kachowski Kowalski? I forgot his name, but we talked
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about, hey, you know, wise guys are looking to like this kid up.
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Sadly for the kid, he got lit up.
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But that was good for us because the Mariners rolled also the
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Diamondbacks. Nice one nothing win.
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Remember how sharp that reverse line move was, guys?
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Everyone on Atlanta, but that line kept falling, falling,
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falling in favor of Arizona. One nothing game and I want to
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give two shout outs, 1 to Eugenio Suarez written a hitting
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a bomb, giving us our one nothing win.
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But in particular Jake McCarthy. Did you guys see how that game
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ended? Matt Olson was at the plate.
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Braves were down 1 nothing in the ninth.
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Matt Olson, it's a bomb to left field and Jake McCarthy robs a
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home run that would have been a tied game 1:00 to 1:00.
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Instead, he robs it preserves the one nothing win.
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So thank you to Jake McCarthy and your webjam out in left
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field. And then WNBA had to sweat this
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one. Got a little lucky were able to
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cash last night, the sky and the liberty over 166 1/2.
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Wouldn't you know it guys, it landed on 167.
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So don't ask by how much. They just asked, hey, how many
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or how can you go over the number?
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That's all we cared about. But thanks to our friends at
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Rhythm, remember we saw the market move on that total.
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Was it 164 and F up to 166 1/2? And then we had some great
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Rhythm edges based on my model, the Rhythm model, and the
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community model all pointing over.
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And we need a three pointer late to cash that over.
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But again, all that matters is we went over the number and our
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friends at Rhythm helped us cash another WNBA ticket.
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So you love to see it. Anyway, guys, 3 and O + 2.52
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units on a big Thirsty Thursday. Let's see if we can keep it
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rolling as we steam into the weekend.
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But we got one last pod, hopefully add another half unit,
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A unit or two, whatever we can do.
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As long as it's a winning day, that's all we care about.
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So without further ado, let's get right into it with some
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Major League Baseball big slate here for tonight.
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Guys, I'll be honest with you, there's so many huge numbers
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tonight. Did you guys notice that there's
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a bunch of teams that are like -250 like, I'll just give you a
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quick rundown. Phillies -262 Seventy against
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Oakland, then you have the Mets -260 against Colorado, then you
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have the Milwaukee Brewers -250 against Washington.
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I know there are a couple others there and was another -200 Saint
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Louis against Chicago. So there's a lot of really big
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numbers out there, which again, feel like layups.
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But you got to win so many to overcome the juice that to me,
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there's a kind of just layoff plays instead of layup plays.
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But I did find 3 bets in particular that caught my eye.
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So let's dive right into them. First one on the board.
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Let's look at a match up here in Cincinnati, the Miami Marlins
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visiting the since the aforementioned Cincinnati Reds.
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Now going into this one, let's set the stage and I'll tell you
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who I'm going to go with. By the way, it's Pete Rose and
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the red legs here. Also, there's a new documentary
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coming out about Pete Rose. I think it's called Charlie
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Hustle. I want to say it comes out maybe
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next week. I cannot wait to watch it.
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I forgot if it's Netflix or another another platform, but I
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did notice that that's something I have on my cue.
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But anyway, and sadly, I was never I was too, too young.
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I guess I never got to watch Charlie Hustle, but hopefully
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this documentary will kind of teach me what it was like to
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watch the hit King, who again still is barred from the from
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the Hall of Fame because he bet on sports and won't and won't
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fess up to it. Or maybe he did, I don't know.
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Anyway, that was a tangent for you, but Miami Marlins at
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Cincinnati Reds, 7:10 PM Eastern Time, first pitch tonight.
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Little background here. The Marlins come in 32 and 61,
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just got swept by the Astros. They lost yesterday's
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interleague series finale six to three as a + 155 row dog.
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Meanwhile, the Red Legs 45 and 49 just took three or four
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against the Rockies. They won eight to one yesterday
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as a -, 200 home favorite. So pitching match up here for
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tonight. The Marlins are going to go with
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ready Yanni Chirinos, who's O&O with a 4.19 ERA.
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Meanwhile, the Reds are going to counter it with fellow ready
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Carson Spires, who's two and two with a 3.64 ERA.
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So what have we seen across the market here?
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Well, pretty obvious, pretty simple.
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We got some massive steam on the red legs.
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Remember, steam or steam move? And again, there are different
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terms to describe kind of the way the market moves.
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Remember last night we had that RLM play obviously on the snakes
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public all over the Braves with the line move to Arizona.
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Well, this is just the classic steam move.
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A steam move is when you have an overload of smart money across
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multiple books. Usually it's wise guys and
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syndicates hammering one side and causing the entire market to
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move. Can't just be one book, It's got
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to be all the books across the market.
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A big wave of sharp action action forcing the entire market
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to adjust in a short period of time.
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So we always say, hey, team's getting steam, they're getting
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hit hard by respected money. But the money here getting
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steamed on Cincinnati, they open as a -, 145 home favorite.
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Now we're seeing the Reds bet up to -175 SA 30 cent steam move in
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favor of Cincinnati tells us a lot of respective money has come
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in here on the red legs. Now the Reds across the market
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are getting 90% of money line bets and nearly 95% of money
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line dollars. So basically heavy one way
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support from both pros and Joe's, as well as that big steam
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move in their favor tells me that the public saying, hey,
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Marlins are terrible, let's just bet against the Marlins.
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That's a two second handicap. But wise guys are also saying,
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hey, not just to bet against the Marlins.
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We like this, you know, the early number.
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Now, do they like it as much now that it's moved so much?
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Maybe not, maybe not because it's obviously you're getting
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not as great a price. But I still want to be with this
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smart money here in favor of the Reds.
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Now the Reds going to bank on their offense.
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They're hitting on the year. They're much more explosive,
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hitting 98 home runs, 413 runs scored.
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Marlins only hitting 75 homers with 323 runs scored since he
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has that classic non division favorite value.
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So the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who's
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expected to win one good system match here when two bad teams
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face off. So again, have to both be below
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500. Take the favorite.
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Very simple, but it's 191 and 1:30 on the year. 60% with a 1%
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ROI. Nothing massive, but it is a
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winning system. Now look at the last 10.
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The Reds are six and four. They're hitting 242 with a 3.4 O
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team ERA. Marlins last 10 are just two and
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eight, hitting only 237 with a 4.85 ERA.
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So you think of a little bandbox there at Great American Ballpark
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as a big hitter's park, which it is.
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But the Reds obviously based on that list, that last 10 game
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sample have been pitching better, which is also a good
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sign. And then also Miami.
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I want to bet against them when they're on the road.
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Just got swept at the Astros. They're 14 and 30 on the road
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this year. That's the fourth worst record
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Rd. record in Major League Baseball.
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Be at all up here, guys. Again, if you're using your live
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odds page and you look at the open column versus the current
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column, the immediate thing you're going to notice is a
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massive move toward the Reds, even though we're not getting
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the best of the number anymore. Only with the sharp action.
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I'm going to go Reds here, guys. I'm going to late with
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Cincinnati. Give me the red legs for Charlie
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Hustle at -175 keep on cruising. Next one up.
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Couple late games for you. Let's go to San Diego, which I
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already miss. I'm back in Boston.
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I miss the Mexican food. I miss the ocean.
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I don't miss the 100° days. But it's like 95 in Boston.
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So what are you going to do? Anyway, let's go back to Petco
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Park and look at the Braves visiting the Padres now coming
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into it. The Braves 51 and 41 split that
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four-game set against Arizona. Thank God they lost yesterday.
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One nothing and Olson didn't hit that home run.
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They were a - 110 Rd. favorite. On the other hand, Padres 49 and
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47, but they've struggled a bit here.
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They just got swept at home in the two game series against the
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Mariners. They lost Wednesday's series
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finale to nothing as a - 135 home favorite.
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The pitching matchup for tonight, the Braves are going to
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go with ready Spencer Schwellenbach, who's two and
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four with a 5 point O2 ERA. And while the pods are going to
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go with the ready Randy Vasquez, who's two and four with a 4.66
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ERA, what do we see across the market here?
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Well, ironically enough, yesterday we saw a reverse line
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move away from Atlanta toward Arizona.
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Well, tonight we have another reverse line move away from
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Atlanta towards San Diego. See Atlanta Braves open this
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game listed around a -, 130 Rd. favorite and the public, they're
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saying, hey, let's go Atlanta again.
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Good team, World Series contender, better record.
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However, despite 64% of bets going with the Braves, the
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Braves number has fallen. They open -130 now they're down
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to -120 So again, if the public is all over Atlanta, 2/3 of
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bets, why is the line dropping again?
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Same situation last night against Arizona.
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This always tells us reverse line movement.
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One of my favorite indicators of smart money.
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When the line goes away from the popular side toward the
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unpopular side, it doesn't make sense at first glance.
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But then you got to think, OK, why is the line going away from
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the popular side? It's because the unpopular side
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has taken in respected, sharp action.
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So we've seen this line move in favor of the Padres plus 115
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down to plus one O 5. So you can get a little plus
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money here on the fathers. San Diego has a really good bet
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split. They're only getting 36% of
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money line bets, but 52% of money line dollars.
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So good low bets, higher dollars bet split.
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In addition to that line move in their favor Padres.
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I'm gonna hope their offense comes back to life.
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It's been a little stagnant last couple games, but they do have
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the better offense on the year hitting 261 with 440 runs
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scored. Braves are only hitting 242 with
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395 runs scored. San Diego also has a rest first
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tired advantage. Maybe when you're struggling a
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bit, you get swept a day off is good to clear your head, get you
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back excited to go out on the on the diamond.
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But San Diego with that rest first tired advantage, they were
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off yesterday and they're also in the middle of a home stand so
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they don't have to travel for this one.
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Slept in their own beds, going to go right back to Petco Park.
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Meanwhile, the Braves played at Arizona and I'm not saying
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Arizona to San Diego is a very long flight.
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It's really not. But second leg of a back-to-back
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travel involved. The advantage here would be the
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rested San Diego Padres at home who had the day off.
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Padres have had the Braves number this year, the three and
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one against Atlanta. Hopefully that continues
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tonight. And Schwellenbach, he has a 6.89
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ERA on the road, 3.68 at home. So he's been pretty decent at
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home bat on the road. Hope that continues tonight.
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And then Vasquez, his last seven starts, San Diego's five and two
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in those games, he has a 3.41 ERA at home versus 6.15 on the
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road. Luckily for us he's at home here
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tonight, so almost a carbon copy of yesterday's game.
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Does it get down closer to pick and we shall see but either way,
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Publix Atlanta lions going to the pods I'm going Padres
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tonight guys give me the fathers at plus one O 5 last bit of the
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night again 3 bets. Can we get two out of three?
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That's the goal. Let's go to San Francisco where
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we have an inter league match up here between the Minnesota Twins
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visiting the San Francisco Giants.
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Now I'll tell you right off the bat giants have frustrated me.
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I've taken in the last two games they have been, they both lost.
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I couldn't believe it webbed the other day and then again
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yesterday. That was an afternoon sweat that
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I had. But I'm looking to get some
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revenge and hope they lose again today.
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So that's the spoiler alert. I'm on Twinkies here.
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The Twins come in 53 and 40, just took two of three against
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the White Sox. They won that finale.
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Second game of a doubleheader, three to two as a -, 210 Rd.
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favorite. Flip side, the G men, 45 and 49,
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they just dropped two of three, as I mentioned against the Blue
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Jays, lost five to three yesterday as a -, 130 home
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favorite. So for the interleague series
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opener tonight, pitching match up, the Twins are going to go
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with ready Joe Ryan who's six and five with a 3.29 ERA.
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Meanwhile, the G men are going to go with lefty Kyle Harrison
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who's four and four with a 4.24 ERA.
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What have you seen across the market here?
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Well, good sharp steam on the Twins.
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I'm going Twins guys. Twins open this game around a -,
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125 -, 130 Rd. favorite. Now we're seeing the Twins up to
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-140 - 145. I see one book maybe even
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inching closer to -150 so notable to me that really it's
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been one way movement in favor of Minnesota.
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No, no buyback. We haven't seen the sign come
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back toward the Giants. It's been all one way in favor
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of the Twins. Now the Twins are getting 77% of
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money line bets, nearly 85% of money line dollars.
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So both a pro and Joe bet split little bit low bets, higher
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dollars in favor of Minnesota with that steam move as well.
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And Minnesota is checking off quite a few boxes for us.
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They are an inner league favorite, lack of familiarity
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benefiting the better team was expected to win.
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They're also an interleague favorite off a win.
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That's another betting system that's around 60% this year.
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So interleague favorite, lack of familiarity with some momentum.
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The twins also have some correlative betting value as a
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favorite in a low total game. So they're a favorite that's
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becoming more of a favorite. And the total in this game is
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only 7 1/2. So again, looking at favorite
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low total, dog high total, favorite low total is good.
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If your amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from
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quote UN quote that better team who's expected to win.
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I'm going to bank on the bats of Minnesota.
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And there's one stat I'm going to give you that you're going to
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really like if you're playing Minnesota with me here.
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But they have the better offense, hitting 255 with 114
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homers, 459 runs scored. San Fran's only hitting 244 with
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96 homers and 415 runs scored. The Twins have another rest
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first tired advantage. Just mention, you know, the
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Padres advantage rest first tired over Atlanta.
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Well, the Twins have an advantage here.
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They were off yesterday. The Giants played yesterday and
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hosted the Blue Jays. I want to bank on Joe Ryan
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hopefully pitching well today. He has a 2.78 ERA on the road
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versus 3.81 at home. And here's the stat that you're
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going to love if you're playing Minnesota against southpaws this
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year. I always mention it, but quick
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Google search you can go to MLB.com with their stats and go
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to splits and go versus left-handed pitchers.
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But Minnesota is hitting 284 against lefties this year.
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That is number one in Major League Baseball.
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So they are the best team against lefties this season.
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Who are they facing tonight? Kyle Harrison, a lefty.
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So I'm going with Minnesota guys.
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Good sharp move. They've they've really roughed
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up lefties this year. Hopefully a better pitcher on
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the bump. Bunch of betting system matches.
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I'm going twins. I got Minnesota at -145 S,
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Twins, Padres and the Reds. Can we get two out of three?
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That is the goal. Now over to the WNBA after it
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was a my heart was beating fast hoping for points late.
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Luckily we got it again. What's better than having an
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over 166 1/2 and it lands 167? You love to see it because there
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have been situations where I've had over 166 1/2 and it lands
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166. So it's, you know, sweet with
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that win because you know what it feels like when you lose a
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close one like that. But anyway, I found one game
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tonight that fit our model in terms of a market based sharp
16:00
move as well as a rhythm system match.
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And it is the Aces and the Dream.
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That is a 7:30 PM Eastern Time tip off tonight.
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It's a big spread. The Aces are favored by 14 1/2.
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They open -13 so it looks like money's going here with the Aces
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to win in a blowout. But I'm going to focus on the
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total because we've had some good success with WNBA totals.
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That's where Rhythm has really helped us cash some bats and
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hopefully they'll help us cash this one.
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So breaking on this game, first start here to handicap.
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Let's look at the market. The market has gone up with this
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total. This total opened at 166 1/2.
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You're now seeing this total up to 169 1/2.
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And again, always get the best of the number because I see a
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couple books at 170. So shop around, have multiple
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outs, something we always stress on the pod.
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But those 169 1/2 should be widely available.
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So try to get the over 169 1/2. So total is on the rise.
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Great bets split to the over at DraftKings.
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Only 57% of bets are on this over, but it's taking into
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account 78% of the money. So 57% kind of tells me public
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is just slightly, slightly leaning over, but nearly 80% of
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dollars tells me all the big money is going over.
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So that is a + 21% low bets, higher dollar, smart money
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discrepancy. Now we're going to bank on the
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Aces. They're really good.
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Fourteen and seven. Atlanta, not very good, 7 and
17:16
14, but the Aces are an offensive juggernaut.
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They remind me a little bit of Gonzaga in college basketball,
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but the Aces are #1 in terms of pace, so that the fastest team
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in the league up and down the court, more possessions, more
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opportunities to score benefits. The over their number one in
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points per game, 89.1, their number 2IN field goal
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percentage, 45.3%, their number one in free throw percentage,
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which is always huge. You got to make your free throws
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if you're going to play an over 84.3% and then also last 10 aces
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are averaging 91.1 points a game.
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They're giving up 81.5 points per game.
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So again, it's rudimentary real quick.
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Boom, that's a 172.6. So it tells us they've been
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playing in some of these higher scoring games.
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It's a little bit fishy as well. Now remember yesterday's game we
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talked about how both of those teams, the sky and the Liberty,
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their last games went way under, yet that total was rising.
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So I kind of wanted to be with that fishy over.
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Well, this one was interesting because both these teams played
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a couple days ago and the Aces won eighty.
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What was it, 84 to 79? So that was a 163 and the Sky,
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the Dream lost to this guy 78 to 69.
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That was a 147. So it's kind of similar where if
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you just quickly look at the box score in their last game, both
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these teams went way under. The posted total, which is 169
18:34
1/2 for today tells me we might have a high scoring game.
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And then also it's fishy because these teams only played each
18:39
other one time previously this year and the dream actually won
18:43
78 to 74, but that was only 152 final score.
18:48
So again, if this total is on the rise, it opened high and
18:50
it's it's getting higher. You know, that's kind of
18:53
interesting because both games, both teams previously went
18:56
under. The last matchup went went
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under. The obvious move is probably
18:59
hey, take the under, but no, the market's moving up.
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So that tells me we got smart money going over and then pop
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open our rhythm app who helped us catch a big bet last night by
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the skin of our teeth. And I'll ask, let me ask you
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guys, do you like it more and kind of enjoy a sweat more when
19:17
you when you have to fight in battle and barely cash at the
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end? Or do you like a blowout, a
19:21
rocking chair play again, both are great because you win both.
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I kind of like the ones you got a battle for.
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But I tell you what, it's nice when you don't have to sweat it
19:28
at all. Anyway, pop open the Rhythm app
19:31
and Rhythm is telling me to take the over.
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I have a Rhythm AI projection at 170.2.
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Now, again, that's just right on it.
19:40
You know, it's 169 1/2, so if it lands 170, that's another half
19:44
point win, but at least it is projected or predicted combined
19:48
total. That's higher than the market
19:49
because we're on the over. And then community model again,
19:52
once again polling everyone who has a Rhythm app and they have a
19:56
play on this game based on their created models. 61.4% are on the
20:00
over. So we have a total that's gone
20:02
up. We have a great bet split 57%
20:05
bet, 78% money. We kind of have a fishy over cuz
20:08
previous games have gone under tells me the match up here maybe
20:12
will lead to high scoring game. Aces are great offensively and
20:15
then again cherry on top rhythms got a 170.2 and a community
20:19
model of 61.4% to the over. So you Add all up here guys,
20:23
let's sweat some points. Let's go over.
20:25
What about what if the aces win? I don't know 100 to 70 it lands
20:29
170. That would be nice.
20:31
Maybe we need some more wiggle room.
20:32
Either way, guys, I'm going over Aces dream over very important.
20:36
You got to get the 169 1/2 shop around just from last night,
20:40
another evidence or evidence of how important it is to get that
20:43
triggering number over 169 1/2. Let's go Aces dream now to
20:48
finish up the pod on a big Friday.
20:51
We got some UFC, some fighting in the arena.
20:53
Now I'm going to preface this by saying this isn't a perfect
20:56
play. You know, we've been doing very
20:59
well with our UFC plays. Let me just dial up my app
21:02
because I don't want to jinx us here and I probably am jinxing
21:05
us. But again, I hope I'm not
21:07
jinxing us. But if you look at kind of the
21:09
way we've been approaching UFC, we're we're doing pretty well
21:12
right now. We've won.
21:13
Let's see 12345 in a row again. And these are selective plays
21:18
of, hey, you know, if there's a match, we play it.
21:20
If not, we lay off. Of course, it's a one week
21:23
thing. I almost kind of like UFC in
21:24
terms of like NFL or college football just because it's once
21:27
a week, so it's not very demanding of you like baseball
21:29
is, even though I like the fact that you have challenges
21:32
everyday in MLB, but it gives us the opportunity to pick our
21:35
spots. So for those who have never met
21:38
UFC on the pod with us before, what are we looking for?
21:41
We're looking to combine data and market movement with
21:44
basically tail of the tape. So we're looking at ideally
21:47
younger, taller, longer reach and a line move as well as a
21:52
good bet split. And then we're going to factor
21:53
in some other supplementary factors.
21:55
So for the UFC match up here this weekend, this is Fight
21:59
Night Naman Junis versus Cortez, I found one bout that really
22:03
caught my eye and that is let me just dial it up for you.
22:07
That is, let me find it. It is the why can't I find it?
22:13
Now It is here we go, the middle weight Abdul Razak Al Hassan
22:20
versus Cody Brundage. Now here's why I really like
22:24
Abdul Razak al Hassan. That's my play.
22:27
I'm going to Abdul Razak Al Hassan.
22:30
I got him at -165 So why do I like Abdul Razak al Hassan?
22:35
Let's start with the data. I woke up this morning with a
22:38
fresh batch of data like I do every Friday for my friends at
22:41
BET MGM. I want to give a shout out as
22:43
always to John Ewing and my other guy Drew Odell, who does a
22:46
great job with the the data. But I looked at this BET split
22:50
and let me just tell you, because we have new people
22:52
listening to the pod, but when you get access to this data,
22:55
don't look at the names of the fighters first.
22:57
The brighters cover them up and only look at first the
22:59
percentage of bets and dollars. And then you're going to combine
23:02
that with a line movement. So the first thing I do is go to
23:05
the bets and and handle bets and dollars.
23:07
Handle is the same thing as dollars, the amount of total
23:09
money wagered. But the first thing I notice is
23:12
that Abdul Razak Al Hassan is only getting 52% of bets, but
23:17
78% of dollars. So that tells me basically it's
23:21
right down the middle 5050 public doesn't know who to take.
23:24
But 78% of money, the money, the money, the money.
23:27
Show me the money from from Jerry Maguire, it's on Abdul
23:32
Razak Al Hassan. So only half the tickets, but
23:35
nearly 80% of dollars are on Abdul Razak Al Hassan.
23:39
Then we have a line move in favor of Abdul Razak Al Hassan.
23:42
He opened up -160. Now he's up to -165.
23:46
So think with this way, 5050 bets, a line shouldn't move at
23:50
all. Yet we're seeing because of the
23:51
more money, the respected money. Always remember it's respected
23:54
money, not public money that moves numbers.
23:56
But the respected money is jiving with the line move in
23:59
favor of Abdul Razak Al Hassan. What -160 up to -165 Now some
24:04
books are even up at -170. So again, shop around, try to
24:07
find the best number you can there, which is going to be
24:09
around a -, 165. Now that's my play.
24:13
Now I'm going to tell you it's not a perfect bet.
24:15
There are a couple things that I'm a little nervous about.
24:18
One is the age difference. I like the younger fighter.
24:21
Abdul Razak Al Hasan is not the younger fighter.
24:23
He's 38 years old. Brundage is 30.
24:26
Is that that scares me a little bit.
24:28
Brundage would have the youth advantage.
24:30
He's also 5 foot eight. And then I saw another, I saw
24:34
another site that said he's 5 foot 10.
24:36
But either way, Brundage is 6 feet.
24:38
So I don't like that he's shorter.
24:40
I don't like that he's older. I did like the reach advantage.
24:43
He's got a 73 inch reach versus 72, so that is worrisome.
24:48
Again, it's not a perfect bet, but really the best split in the
24:51
line move is what's making me take Abdul Raziq Al Hassan.
24:55
So again, if that scares you and you don't want to lay off, I get
24:58
it. You know, I want the action, so
25:00
I'm going to play it here. I'm going to walk a bit of a
25:01
tightrope. I was reading up about this
25:03
matchup though, and a couple other things to like about Razak
25:06
Al Hassan. He has more significant strikes
25:09
per minute, so he has more offensive output.
25:11
Why is that important? Because if it goes to the
25:13
judges, usually the fighter who has, you know, given up, dished
25:17
out more punishment will get kind of a benefit in the
25:19
scorecard. But he's averaging 3.37
25:22
significant strikes per minute versus only 1.62 for Brundage.
25:26
Also, he defends better. He's defending 55% of
25:29
significant strikes. Brundage is only defending 43%
25:32
of significant strikes. And I was also reading about
25:35
Razik Al Hassan. He's a heavy hitter, so he's
25:39
he's basically can dish out a lot of punishment.
25:41
He's got a powerhouse punch and he really leads to a lot of
25:44
knockouts. He's also coming off a loss.
25:46
So please, you know, got that motivation here.
25:48
So again, I don't like that he's older and I don't like that he's
25:51
shorter. But one thing that I'm leaning
25:53
on is the fact that wise guys who are betting this bout, they
25:57
know he's he's older, they know he's shorter and yet they're
26:00
still hitting him and causing him to move.
26:01
So not a perfect bet, but for some action here in the UFC
26:05
biting this weekend, I'm going to go with only 52% bets, 78%
26:10
money line move, more offense, better defense, and the heavy
26:14
header knockout blow. I'm going with Abdul Razak Al
26:17
Hassan, I got him at -165 No, that about does it for episode
26:22
75 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by
26:26
Rhythm. Couple things that we got to
26:28
finish up with here on today's pod #1 Thank you for listening
26:31
to the pod each day. Thank you for taking the time
26:34
out of your day to pull up a chair to the virtual bar as I
26:37
always joke about. But really when I'm doing a pod,
26:39
I feel like I'm surrounded by friends, surrounded by like
26:41
minded betters who all have one goal in mind and that's to make
26:44
smart bets and hopefully cash some tickets.
26:46
So thank you as always for tuning in.
26:48
But can you do me a favor? Can you make my day?
26:50
Can you please give this podcast a 5 star review?
26:54
If you're listening on iTunes or Spotify or any other platform,
26:58
can you please give it a 5 star review?
26:59
That really helps us to rise up the rankings, gain more
27:02
credibility and really just, you know, kind of build organically
27:06
a good a good listener base. That's always very helpful.
27:08
So if you can give it a 5 star review and also the option to
27:11
follow the pod, there might be a button that says follow.
27:13
That way you're alerted as soon as a new one drops each
27:15
afternoon. I'd very much appreciate that as
27:17
well. Secondly, if you haven't done it
27:20
yet, go sign up for Rhythm as well as Juice Reel.
27:23
We love Rhythm because they help us to make very sharp, informed,
27:27
data-driven bets. They helped us cash are over by
27:29
the skin of the teeth and WNBA last night.
27:31
But rhythm is fantastic for AI backed predictions with WNBA as
27:36
well as golf. I don't hit on golf a ton.
27:39
I don't bet on golf a lot, but I probably should bet on it more.
27:42
But rhythm has great projections for top five, top ten, top 20.
27:46
They have the AI caddy. I know the Scottish Open is
27:48
going on right now. So if you're listening to my
27:50
voice and you're, you know, you're saying, Josh, why don't
27:52
you talk more golf? Well, guess what rhythms going
27:54
to help you catch some golf bets, but you can sign up for a
27:56
rhythm 7 day free trial just by clicking the custom link in the
27:59
bio description of this podcast. Secondly, go sign up for juice
28:03
reel. Juice Reel does a great job of
28:06
helping us learn more about ourselves as a better.
28:08
You can sync up your sports book to juice reel and then as soon
28:11
as you make a bet in your book, it'll go automatically to the
28:13
juice reel app. It gives you a report card.
28:16
You can track your performance. You can learn, Hey, I'm really
28:18
good at W MB AI need to get better at baseball.
28:21
Maybe I'm really good at WNBA totals and I'm not great on
28:24
sides. Then I bet more totals and I
28:26
lean a little bit less on sides. It just gives you more
28:28
information about yourself as a better, which you can use to
28:31
your advantage. But also it's got the juice Reel
28:34
Robo Jackson AI best bets each day that come out at noon.
28:37
It also has the sharp mush opportunities looking at the top
28:39
pro versus Joe bets. And also I wanted to mention
28:42
this. I tweeted about it.
28:43
You can follow me on Twitter at Josh under score insights.
28:45
It'll always be Twitter. It'll never be X Sorry Elon
28:48
Musk. But anyway, the only guarantee
28:50
in sports betting arbitrage arbitrage is when you bet the
28:53
same thing or basically opposite sides of a bet at two different
28:57
books and because of the prices, you're guaranteed a profit.
28:59
So I tweeted this out earlier. We'll get these arbitrage bets
29:03
every single day with the Juice Reel app.
29:05
There was one today, Tampa Bay total runs.
29:08
So at DraftKings it's over 3 1/2 at minus one O 5.
29:12
At FanDuel, it's under 3 1/2 at plus 1/12.
29:15
If you bet 100 bucks on the under 3 1/2 at plus 1/12 at
29:18
FanDuel and you bet $108.59 on the over 3 1/2 -, 1 O five at
29:23
DraftKings, no matter what the outcome is, you're guaranteed to
29:27
win $3.41. Now you might be rolling your
29:30
eyes like Josh $3.41. Who cares?
29:32
That's not the point. The point is that these are this
29:35
is basically free money. I call it the cup of coffee
29:37
money, $3.41 now at McDonald's, I want to say my French vanilla,
29:42
my large French vanilla is only $1.99 maybe or $0.99 in the app.
29:47
I know if you get a cup of coffee like my wife at
29:49
Starbucks, it's like $8. But either way, there's just
29:52
another way that the Juice Reel app can help you win money.
29:55
And again, if you grind out, let's say you grind out a $3
29:58
arbitrage every day, you know, that's 21, that's 21 bucks a
30:02
week, that's 2040, that's 80 bucks a month.
30:05
You know, don't make me do all the math, but this is just
30:07
another cool way that Juice Reel can help you cash some tickets.
30:12
So sign up for the Juice Reel app by clicking that custom link
30:15
located inside of the bio description of the pod.
30:18
Lastly, if you enjoy the breakdowns, you enjoy the
30:21
thought process of making sharp data-driven bets, guess what?
30:24
I have a resource that you can lean on a little bit more.
30:27
I wrote a book, it's called the everything Guide to Sports
30:29
betting. Just go pick up a copy.
30:31
You can go to Amazon.com, type in the everything guide to
30:34
sports betting and you'll learn all about how to be a
30:37
data-driven sharp contrarian better.
30:38
It's got everything I've learned in the industry, how lines are
30:40
set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to
30:43
locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online,
30:46
how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
30:48
management plan. It's all included in the
30:50
everything guide to sports betting.
30:52
So support the team, make my day go buy a copy, something you can
30:55
hold in your hands right in the margin, something you can refer
30:57
to or give it as a gift to that buddy of yours that parlays
31:01
everything and has no bankroll management plan.
31:03
And that's every favorite every over.
31:05
That's that's the friend of yours that needs it.
31:08
But seriously, guys, if you want to pick up a copy, it would
31:10
really mean a lot to me. I want to meet you at the book.
31:12
I'll buy you a beer or a ginger ale or maybe some mozzarella
31:15
sticks and we'll go sweat some games and I'll sign a copy of
31:18
the book for you. But that about does it for
31:20
episode 75 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast, Powered
31:24
by Rhythm. My parting words, as always,
31:26
whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
31:30
Rhode Island, the Brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
31:32
Sun in Connecticut, in my neck of the woods at the Encore in
31:37
Boston, Plainers Park Casino, MGM Springfield in
31:39
Massachusetts. I just say that twice.
31:40
Maybe I did anyway. We're out in the desert where
31:43
the true grinders get down, where Billy Walter sends his
31:45
number runners, where the lowest juice possible is found at the
31:48
South Point. So I hope you guys, if you're in
31:50
Vegas, you're sticking in the AC or in a pool or of course,
31:54
Speaking of pools, jumping in the stadium swimming pool at
31:56
Circa, which is my favorite sports book in the world,
31:59
wherever it may be. They're going to bust out a
32:01
broom. We're going to, we're going to,
32:02
we're going to, I don't know, play lightsabers with our brooms
32:05
because we had a sweep last night.
32:06
You're going to show me a Mariners ticket, AD backs
32:08
ticket. Thank you, McCarthy.
32:10
You're going to show me a WNBA Sky Liberty over 166.
32:14
Now if lands 167 Jeff's kiss, you love it.
32:17
Guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
32:19
you. We're going to post about the
32:20
book Sweatsharp contrarian place all night long.
32:23
So wish her the best of luck. Everyone have a fantastic
32:26
weekend. Actually, I'm about to hit the
32:28
road and drive back across the state of Massachusetts to pick
32:32
up my daughter. My daughter is she's a furry,
32:35
furry daughter. My dog, my pup, metal pup.
32:37
She's spent about the last two weeks with my parents and I miss
32:41
her. So I'm going to go pick her up,
32:42
bring her back home and hopefully have a winning weekend
32:44
with you guys. Reminder, I do write the sharp
32:46
report for visa.com on the weekends.
32:48
So you can always follow me on Twitter at Josh under score
32:50
insights and check out some some sharp bets for baseball this
32:54
weekend. We'll be back at it for for
32:56
Monday. Hopefully you can catch some
32:58
tickets for today. Let's go Abdul Razak Al Hassan
33:00
and I'll see you guys back on Monday for episode 76 of the All
33:05
systems Go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
33:08
Have a great day everybody and an even better weekend.
33:11
Good luck.