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Recapping Our BIG Plays from Primary Election Results Night · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable
• 0:02
  with Stu.
• 0:03
  PredictableShow.com is the place to go to sign up for the sub-stack,
• 0:06
  get the newsletter,
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  get all the information
• 0:09
  that you need to get about prediction markets
• 0:11
  and the elections that we're dealing with.
• 0:13
  Now we had an election last night,
• 0:14
  primaries.
• 0:15
  Uh,
• 0:15
  one of the pieces that we put up on substack
• 0:19
  called the Plattner Play.
• 0:21
  Uh,
• 0:21
  gave you an outline as to what you should do,
• 0:23
  uh,
• 0:24
  during the Graham Plattner election.
• 0:25
  We'll go through the results of that here in just a moment.
• 0:28
  We have,
• 0:28
  uh,
• 0:29
  I'll give,
• 0:29
  also give you,
• 0:29
  and this is what I try to do every single time after we have an election,
• 0:32
  give you every single position
• 0:34
  that we had
• 0:35
  in that election,
• 0:36
  show you the good news,
• 0:37
  the bad.
• 0:38
  News and everything in between.
• 0:39
  And we'll talk to you about what your questions are with prediction markets,
• 0:44
  what we're looking for going in the future.
• 0:45
  Uh,
• 0:45
  in the next few weeks,
• 0:46
  we have more primaries coming up
• 0:48
  and a lot,
• 0:49
  lot more.
• 0:50
  So stick with us.
• 0:51
  It's predictable with Stu at predictableshow.com.
• 1:10
  All right,
• 1:10
  it's predictable with Stu.
• 1:12
  Check us out on all the social media.
• 1:13
  Follow us there,
• 1:14
  do the things that you're supposed to do as good social media compadres.
• 1:17
  We appreciate it.
• 1:18
  We're building a bankroll together in,
• 1:21
  leading into the November elections,
• 1:23
  and
• 1:24
  each week,
• 1:25
  we're kind of going big on these,
• 1:26
  uh,
• 1:26
  primary elections right now because it seems like there's
• 1:29
  opportunities in each and every one of them.
• 1:31
  We will see if that continues to go forward,
• 1:33
  but so far our results have been very,
• 1:34
  very positive.
• 1:35
  We'll get into all those here in just a second.
• 1:36
  Right now,
• 1:37
  this yesterday was Oklahoma.
• 1:39
  Or excuse me,
• 1:39
  coming up next week,
• 1:40
  Oklahoma,
• 1:41
  Alabama,
• 1:41
  the runoff election there,
• 1:43
  and the Georgia runoff is next week.
• 1:45
  So not a ton of stuff,
• 1:46
  but I think there'll be opportunities there.
• 1:48
  June 23rd is Maryland,
• 1:49
  New York,
• 1:50
  Utah,
• 1:51
  and South Carolina runoff.
• 1:54
  Uh,
• 1:54
  Um,
• 1:54
  by the way,
• 1:54
  the South,
• 1:55
  this is again,
• 1:56
  we pointed this out with the California elections.
• 1:57
  2,
• 1:58
  yeah last night was the South Carolina election.
• 2:00
  They count all the votes and they get to their runoff,
• 2:02
  their entire new election in 2 weeks.
• 2:04
  By then,
• 2:05
  California will be 3 or 4 weeks into just counting their vote,
• 2:08
  trying to figure out who won.
• 2:10
  Perfect.
• 2:10
  June 27th is uh Saturday.
• 2:12
  That's a Louisiana runoff,
• 2:13
  and then the 30th is Colorado,
• 2:15
  all in front of us.
• 2:17
  But last night behind us,
• 2:18
  and we wanna look back and review what we did,
• 2:20
  what can we learn?
• 2:22
  What was uh a good idea or what was maybe a bad idea?
• 2:26
  We learned this from the,
• 2:28
  uh,
• 2:29
  the primary elections last night that we talked about,
• 2:32
  and
• 2:32
  what I wanna focus on first is Maine.
• 2:35
  Maine was sort of the highest profile election.
• 2:37
  There's lots of controversy going on around,
• 2:39
  around Graham Plattner,
• 2:41
  and we decided to dive into that,
• 2:43
  uh,
• 2:43
  with a written piece that we posted at the sub stack at predictableShow.com.
• 2:47
  It was called The Plattner Play,
• 2:49
  as the graphics said.
• 2:50
  Here's a great election quick profit opportunity.
• 2:53
  Graham Plattner has provided some opportunities.
• 2:56
  Yeah,
• 2:56
  he sure has.
• 2:57
  Uh,
• 2:57
  why?
• 2:58
  Because,
• 2:59
  like,
• 2:59
  we look at this election and you look at these,
• 3:02
  uh,
• 3:02
  these election graphs and,
• 3:03
  and everything that's going on with them.
• 3:06
  And you notice that Graham Plattner is going through all of this stuff,
• 3:09
  and the traditional way to react to that is,
• 3:11
  well,
• 3:12
  he's got a lower chance to win because of all of the controversies.
• 3:15
  But you need to analyze that and you need to go through it.
• 3:17
  Now,
• 3:17
  the Plattner play lined this out pretty well,
• 3:20
  uh,
• 3:21
  giving you 4 quick points as to why
• 3:24
  Graham Plattner to win this election was interesting.
• 3:27
  Uh,
• 3:28
  number 1,
• 3:28
  Janet Mills,
• 3:29
  his only opponent,
• 3:30
  had dropped out of the race,
• 3:31
  and even when she was in the race,
• 3:32
  she was down by 30 points.
• 3:33
  Number 2,
• 3:35
  about a third of the vote had already
• 3:36
  been in before this latest controversy happened,
• 3:39
  so almost all those people,
• 3:40
  uh,
• 3:41
  probably went to Graham Plattner.
• 3:43
  Um,
• 3:44
  Plattner
• 3:44
  getting a bunch of new accusers was a worry and is a worry,
• 3:48
  I think,
• 3:48
  for the Democrats,
• 3:49
  uh,
• 3:50
  and if you happen to have Plattner
• 3:52
  winning in November,
• 3:53
  there's a real worry there that there's going to be hundreds,
• 3:56
  thousands,
• 3:57
  millions
• 3:58
  of other women that come forward and say terrible things about him.
• 4:01
  That being said though,
• 4:02
  that election
• 4:03
  was specifically in the rules,
• 4:05
  uh,
• 4:06
  designated,
• 4:06
  uh,
• 4:07
  it says right here,
• 4:08
  this market will resolve after a consensus of designated media sources have called
• 4:10
  the winner of the Maine Democratic Senate primary scheduled for June 9th.
• 4:14
  In other words,
• 4:14
  this is about Tuesday's election.
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  This is not about what's going on in November.
• 4:17
  So we have that.
• 4:18
  And then fourth,
• 4:19
  kind of a
• 4:20
  non-scientific measure for my part,
• 4:22
  I don't think the Democrats care about this at all,
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  and they're the ones voting in this primary,
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  so.
• 4:28
  I,
• 4:28
  I just didn't see anything that was gonna happen that was gonna,
• 4:30
  uh,
• 4:30
  upend
• 4:32
  Graham Plattner's run.
• 4:33
  We gave you a few different ways to play.
• 4:35
  We'll come back to that here in just a second.
• 4:36
  Maine Democrats did wind up picking Graham Plattner,
• 4:38
  scandals and all,
• 4:39
  to take on Susan Collins.
• 4:41
  Here's the final vote count,
• 4:42
  and it was a big margin for Graham Plattner,
• 4:44
  72
• 4:46
  to 19.
• 4:48
  72 to 19.
• 4:50
  So again,
• 4:50
  not much worry from the Democrats on,
• 4:52
  on that.
• 4:53
  We gave you a few different ways to play this election,
• 4:55
  uh,
• 4:55
  and
• 4:56
  we were able to do very,
• 4:58
  very well.
• 4:58
  Another really good night.
• 4:59
  Honestly,
• 4:59
  we've had what,
• 5:00
  4 or 5 primaries we've done since we launched the show.
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  And all of them have been really good nights so far.
• 5:05
  So hopefully you're joining us,
• 5:06
  hopefully you're following along.
• 5:07
  I got a lot of feedback from you,
• 5:09
  uh,
• 5:09
  during the live streams last night that we did for Blaze TV
• 5:13
  and the YouTube show,
• 5:14
  uh,
• 5:14
  YouTube channel,
• 5:15
  youtube.com/atpredictableshow,
• 5:17
  and of course,
• 5:17
  on the sub-stack as well at Predictable show.
• 5:20
  A lot of you are
• 5:21
  coming along for the ride on a lot of these investments and so far We've done great.
• 5:24
  Honestly,
• 5:25
  it's been great.
• 5:25
  You know,
• 5:25
  you're gonna have,
• 5:26
  I'm sure,
• 5:26
  a bad day one of these days,
• 5:27
  but so far we haven't seen that,
• 5:29
  which is nice.
• 5:29
  Uh,
• 5:30
  here is,
• 5:30
  uh,
• 5:31
  the chart for the Maine Democratic Senate nominee.
• 5:34
  Of course,
• 5:34
  Graham Potner winning and ending up at 100%.
• 5:37
  If you kind of look at the very end of this chart,
• 5:39
  and I'll describe for
• 5:40
  you if you're on podcast,
• 5:41
  you see him getting up,
• 5:42
  uh,
• 5:43
  I don't know,
• 5:43
  maybe it's May
• 5:44
  of 2026,
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  up to that 95% level right after,
• 5:49
  uh,
• 5:49
  what's her face,
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  uh,
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  Mills drops out.
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  And it stays steady right there around,
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  I don't know,
• 5:54
  98,
• 5:55
  99%.
• 5:56
  And then there's that little dip.
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  That little dip
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  is where the platinner play
• 6:01
  came into effect.
• 6:02
  Yes,
• 6:02
  I know,
• 6:02
  it doesn't look like a lot from that distance,
• 6:04
  and it really isn't a lot when it comes to percentages.
• 6:07
  One of the things we focus on all the time
• 6:09
  is what our annual percentage rate is
• 6:12
  on an investment.
• 6:13
  Not just
• 6:14
  whether,
• 6:14
  you know,
• 6:15
  you're,
• 6:15
  if you're making 1%,
• 6:16
  what's the big deal on that,
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  but if you're making 1% in one day,
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  If you annualize it,
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  that's 365%
• 6:22
  annual.
• 6:23
  We're not gonna get that every single day,
• 6:25
  of course,
• 6:25
  but we can lock in those gains
• 6:27
  here and there and everywhere as many times as we can in as many,
• 6:30
  as many markets as we can
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  and take those victories forward.
• 6:34
  We stack,
• 6:34
  uh,
• 6:35
  stack with stew,
• 6:36
  stack these gains,
• 6:37
  stack them,
• 6:37
  stack them,
• 6:38
  stack them until we get to November,
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  and then we have a nice big bankroll
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  to go big
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  on the November.
• 6:43
  Elections.
• 6:44
  So we did win with that.
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  Uh,
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  the way that played out was when I wrote the piece,
• 6:47
  it was a,
• 6:48
  uh,
• 6:48
  he was at 95.5% chance to win.
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  Uh,
• 6:52
  if that means you have a $4.5
• 6:54
  in gain on every $95.5
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  invested.
• 6:58
  Long story short,
• 6:58
  that's a 4.7%
• 7:01
  return in 4 days
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  or about a 429%
• 7:05
  annual return.
• 7:06
  Uh,
• 7:06
  that's how we kind of contextualize these investments now.
• 7:09
  The,
• 7:10
  the numbers are much,
• 7:10
  much higher for these other investments.
• 7:12
  Uh,
• 7:13
  we did two other plays.
• 7:14
  One was,
• 7:15
  um,
• 7:15
  the
• 7:16
  margin of victory.
• 7:17
  Now,
• 7:17
  this is the margin of victory,
• 7:19
  uh,
• 7:19
  market
• 7:20
  for Graham Plattner.
• 7:21
  Of course,
• 7:21
  he did win.
• 7:22
  Uh,
• 7:23
  we had a couple of different,
• 7:24
  um,
• 7:25
  pieces here.
• 7:25
  If you see the one,
• 7:26
  the,
• 7:26
  the one at the top,
• 7:27
  the one that wound up winning
• 7:28
  was Graham Plattner by more than 50 points.
• 7:31
  Again,
• 7:31
  the final was 72 to 19.
• 7:33
  So we cleared that by a few points.
• 7:35
  That was sort of her longest shot,
• 7:36
  uh,
• 7:37
  in this particular elect uh piece that we wrote
• 7:40
  at predictableshow.com.
• 7:43
  Uh,
• 7:43
  I wrote the most enticing option is Plattner to win by 50+ points.
• 7:46
  Currently sitting around 40% chance you can more than double your money here.
• 7:50
  You just look,
• 7:51
  you're looking for Plattner to get around 75% of the vote.
• 7:53
  Now I actually ended up at 72%,
• 7:54
  but because of the third candidate,
• 7:55
  it was still plenty to clear that,
• 7:57
  um,
• 7:57
  possibility.
• 7:59
  Uh,
• 7:59
  and,
• 7:59
  uh,
• 8:00
  so 40,
• 8:01
  you're getting 60 cents on a 40 cents investment,
• 8:03
  which is 150% profit
• 8:07
  in 4 days.
• 8:08
  So I really hope
• 8:09
  that you took advantage of that.
• 8:10
  Uh,
• 8:10
  by the way,
• 8:11
  I've talked to several people
• 8:13
  who listened to the show or read the piece and wound up
• 8:16
  investing in this and making good money.
• 8:17
  I talked to one person yesterday
• 8:19
  who,
• 8:19
  uh,
• 8:20
  bought at about 50 cents
• 8:21
  on that particular market.
• 8:23
  And then wound up selling at about 75 cents,
• 8:25
  locked in,
• 8:26
  uh,
• 8:26
  a nice 50% profit,
• 8:28
  didn't ride it all the way to the top,
• 8:29
  that's fine.
• 8:29
  You don't have to do that every time.
• 8:31
  Take your chunks of profit where you can get them.
• 8:34
  Uh,
• 8:34
  and then,
• 8:34
  uh,
• 8:35
  I talked to another person who rode it all the
• 8:36
  way to the end and got the full benefit of that
• 8:39
  particular market.
• 8:40
  A very nice,
• 8:41
  uh,
• 8:41
  market increase there.
• 8:42
  Now,
• 8:42
  I had actually,
• 8:43
  you know,
• 8:44
  that was like a long shot.
• 8:45
  I wasn't sure
• 8:46
  we were gonna win that market,
• 8:47
  but I thought there was value there.
• 8:49
  Uh,
• 8:49
  on the other side,
• 8:50
  there was a market that was,
• 8:51
  uh,
• 8:51
  I thought gave a little bit better returns
• 8:52
  than that 4.7% margin we were talking about,
• 8:56
  uh,
• 8:56
  on the first market,
• 8:57
  just whether he would win.
• 8:58
  And that was a,
• 8:59
  uh,
• 9:00
  uh,
• 9:00
  the margin that was,
• 9:01
  uh,
• 9:02
  basically that Plattner will win by between 10 and 20 points.
• 9:05
  OK?
• 9:05
  So you're talking about.
• 9:07
  Somewhere between 55-45 election to a 60/40 election in that general vicinity,
• 9:12
  and I think I just thought he was going to win by a lot more than that.
• 9:14
  He did win by a lot more than that.
• 9:16
  So I went no on the 10 to 20% market.
• 9:18
  Uh,
• 9:18
  we rode that to the end as well in the piece.
• 9:21
  Uh,
• 9:21
  he was in the high 80s is where we started recommending that.
• 9:24
  And if you see here,
• 9:26
  uh,
• 9:27
  uh,
• 9:27
  you know,
• 9:28
  uh,
• 9:28
  the no position,
• 9:29
  this is sort of reverse,
• 9:30
  this is the yes position,
• 9:31
  but the no position on that market
• 9:32
  wound up,
• 9:33
  uh,
• 9:33
  playing out,
• 9:34
  paying out very easily.
• 9:35
  I mean he cleared that by a mile.
• 9:36
  Bottom line is,
• 9:37
  uh,
• 9:38
  we hit on all three of those things.
• 9:39
  So if you read that piece,
• 9:40
  if you just took your money and invested in the three things that we recommended,
• 9:44
  again,
• 9:44
  we're not a financial advice show,
• 9:46
  but we are trying to find winners here and we're trying to find them together,
• 9:48
  uh,
• 9:49
  you would have done very,
• 9:49
  very well,
• 9:50
  as we did last night.
• 9:51
  There's a few other,
• 9:51
  um,
• 9:52
  elections to talk about.
• 9:54
  The most interesting one of the night,
• 9:56
  I mean,
• 9:56
  the Plattner thing was pretty much a sure thing that he was gonna win,
• 9:58
  that the only question was the margin there,
• 10:00
  and we've watched that kind of
• 10:02
  to the end.
• 10:03
  Excuse me,
• 10:04
  my voice is just,
• 10:05
  I've had this cough,
• 10:06
  like this lingering scratchy frog in the throat type of cough for a month.
• 10:12
  It's great.
• 10:13
  I freaking love it.
• 10:15
  It's definitely not annoying trying to do multiple shows a day with it.
• 10:18
  I will tell you that.
• 10:18
  OK,
• 10:19
  so in South Carolina,
• 10:20
  the Republican governor
• 10:22
  primary,
• 10:22
  this is how that played out.
• 10:23
  Pamela Yvette
• 10:25
  at 28.9% of the vote.
• 10:27
  Uh,
• 10:27
  Alan Wilson at 26.1% of the vote.
• 10:30
  Uh,
• 10:30
  Ralph Norman was in third at 17%,
• 10:32
  Ron Reddy at 14%,
• 10:33
  and Nancy Mace at 12.
• 10:35
  Keep this up for just a moment because
• 10:36
  I want to talk through what we wanted to do here.
• 10:38
  Our,
• 10:39
  our idea was
• 10:40
  to go through these,
• 10:41
  uh,
• 10:42
  particular markets and take the bottom three,
• 10:44
  which was Norman,
• 10:44
  Reddy and Mace.
• 10:45
  Uh,
• 10:46
  they were trading at 1 or 2 cents when we made this idea,
• 10:49
  uh,
• 10:49
  this investment in this,
• 10:50
  uh,
• 10:51
  segment that we did last week.
• 10:52
  And the hope was that.
• 10:54
  For the first few,
• 10:55
  you know,
• 10:56
  15,
• 10:56
  20% of the vote,
• 10:57
  one of these three
• 10:58
  would get into that top two
• 11:00
  and start looking really,
• 11:02
  really good to make it to the,
• 11:03
  uh,
• 11:04
  runoff,
• 11:04
  which is where the top two,
• 11:05
  come from,
• 11:06
  and,
• 11:07
  uh,
• 11:08
  and pop into that range.
• 11:10
  And honestly,
• 11:11
  the worst case scenario for,
• 11:12
  for that particular idea
• 11:14
  was that Yvette and Wilson would go off to an early lead and hold it the entire time.
• 11:18
  Well,
• 11:18
  unfortunately,
• 11:19
  that's exactly what happened,
• 11:20
  right?
• 11:20
  That's exactly what happened.
• 11:21
  Yvette and Wilson got off to an early lead.
• 11:23
  The first few 1000 votes,
• 11:24
  they were up by a lot,
• 11:25
  and they just held that it wound up getting closer as the night went on,
• 11:28
  but honestly,
• 11:29
  never really,
• 11:29
  none of the other candidates ever really popped.
• 11:31
  So that was,
• 11:32
  uh,
• 11:32
  uh,
• 11:33
  an L,
• 11:34
  unfortunately.
• 11:34
  Now,
• 11:35
  There was opportunity to take profit on each one
• 11:37
  of those 3 candidates before the election day started,
• 11:40
  and I talked to some people who did that.
• 11:41
  Um,
• 11:41
  I did it a little bit,
• 11:43
  not as much as I would have liked now in retrospect,
• 11:45
  but generally speaking,
• 11:45
  it was a small investment.
• 11:47
  We're talking about 1 or 2%,
• 11:48
  which you should be looking at and kind of mental,
• 11:50
  uh,
• 11:50
  mentally.
• 11:51
  Modeling the idea
• 11:53
  that's a 50 to 100 to 1
• 11:55
  type of opportunity.
• 11:57
  If that one of those would have hit,
• 11:58
  would have been fantastic,
• 11:59
  but generally speaking,
• 12:00
  we didn't expect it to hit,
• 12:02
  it didn't hit,
• 12:03
  and unfortunately,
• 12:03
  one of our long shots goes down there.
• 12:05
  By the way,
• 12:05
  we'll go through every position that I had yesterday here in just a minute.
• 12:08
  Uh,
• 12:08
  also I wanna give you this,
• 12:09
  uh,
• 12:10
  Lindsey Graham was another big position that we had,
• 12:13
  uh,
• 12:13
  you know,
• 12:14
  this is an interesting market because Graham wins with 56.8% of the vote.
• 12:18
  Uh,
• 12:18
  Mark Lynch comes in 2nd,
• 12:20
  28.9%.
• 12:21
  And a third candidate there,
• 12:22
  Thomas
• 12:23
  Desmuks,
• 12:24
  I don't know,
• 12:25
  uh,
• 12:25
  5.2%,
• 12:26
  not really a factor,
• 12:27
  but Lynch was not a,
• 12:28
  I wouldn't say a top tier candidate.
• 12:30
  Might be a great guy.
• 12:31
  I don't know him.
• 12:32
  I don't know much about his candidacy,
• 12:33
  but he was not like a heavily funded candidate.
• 12:35
  And this is sort of,
• 12:37
  this one's sort of basically what you'd expect out
• 12:40
  of Lindsey Graham when you look at the history.
• 12:42
  A win,
• 12:43
  but a particularly unimpressive win.
• 12:45
  The fact that you're only getting 57% in a race
• 12:47
  where you're kind of the only one in there,
• 12:49
  I mean,
• 12:49
  Lynch was a candidate,
• 12:50
  but not a,
• 12:51
  uh,
• 12:52
  a highly funded.
• 12:53
  He didn't have 10 super PACs behind him.
• 12:55
  It was basically Lindsey Graham
• 12:56
  running against
• 12:57
  how many people.
• 12:58
  Don't like Lindsey Graham and he barely won over 50%.
• 13:01
  So it was not impressive
• 13:02
  at all.
• 13:03
  And when I look at these two,
• 13:04
  because,
• 13:04
  so I,
• 13:05
  we won very big,
• 13:06
  uh,
• 13:06
  uh,
• 13:07
  again,
• 13:08
  small percentage,
• 13:08
  but it was our one of our,
• 13:09
  I think it was my actually,
• 13:10
  my largest position was technically on Lindsey Graham to just win,
• 13:14
  uh,
• 13:14
  which he did,
• 13:15
  um,
• 13:16
  but,
• 13:16
  you know,
• 13:17
  it wasn't super,
• 13:17
  uh,
• 13:18
  super sexy investment.
• 13:19
  It was in the range of whatever,
• 13:20
  uh,
• 13:21
  the platinum,
• 13:21
  uh,
• 13:22
  to win range was.
• 13:23
  It was in that,
• 13:24
  you know,
• 13:24
  3 or 4% points,
• 13:25
  5% points maybe it was,
• 13:27
  um.
• 13:29
  I also went into the,
• 13:30
  the
• 13:31
  markets on margin,
• 13:32
  uh,
• 13:33
  and we,
• 13:34
  you know,
• 13:34
  Lindsay,
• 13:35
  it was the same type of thing I did with Plattner where it was 10 to 20%.
• 13:38
  I said no.
• 13:39
  I thought he would win by more than 20%.
• 13:41
  Uh,
• 13:42
  he did win that one,
• 13:43
  so he won that market,
• 13:43
  but I also had a flyer in,
• 13:45
  uh,
• 13:46
  Graham plus 40%,
• 13:47
  I think it was.
• 13:49
  And that's the one that bothers me more
• 13:50
  than anything because the South Carolina one,
• 13:51
  I,
• 13:52
  I think the process was really clean there.
• 13:54
  Uh,
• 13:54
  I think
• 13:55
  it was the right play.
• 13:56
  I think it was a really,
• 13:57
  I think the value was really there for one of those candidates to pop off.
• 14:00
  Didn't quite happen,
• 14:01
  uh,
• 14:02
  didn't go our way,
• 14:03
  but I feel really confident in the process
• 14:05
  there and looking at that election and saying,
• 14:07
  hey,
• 14:07
  is this a good way to play this election?
• 14:08
  I feel like the answer to that is yes.
• 14:10
  So I feel good about that one.
• 14:11
  I feel annoyed at myself for going for Lindsey Graham
• 14:15
  over 40%,
• 14:16
  largely because
• 14:18
  I,
• 14:18
  I knew
• 14:19
  he was a weak winner.
• 14:22
  And I went back and looked at all of his previous,
• 14:24
  uh,
• 14:24
  primary results,
• 14:26
  and what you see there is he's
• 14:28
  never really cleared 70%.
• 14:30
  And if you think if he's gonna win an election,
• 14:32
  say 70 to 30%,
• 14:33
  that's 40 points.
• 14:34
  He's usually in the high 50s to high 60s in these elections,
• 14:38
  depending on how much,
• 14:39
  you know,
• 14:39
  how much,
• 14:40
  uh,
• 14:40
  pushback
• 14:41
  there actually is
• 14:42
  from a secondary candidate.
• 14:44
  Uh,
• 14:44
  he wound up in the high 50s.
• 14:46
  It's enough for him to get past the runoff.
• 14:48
  Uh,
• 14:48
  congratulations to Lindsey Graham,
• 14:50
  I guess.
• 14:51
  But at the end of the day,
• 14:52
  it was a,
• 14:52
  uh,
• 14:53
  you know,
• 14:53
  it's kind of wasteful.
• 14:54
  Uh,
• 14:54
  and it was a lottery ticket,
• 14:55
  wasn't a lot of money into it,
• 14:56
  uh,
• 14:57
  for that.
• 14:57
  It was a long shot.
• 14:58
  I think it was at
• 14:59
  15
• 15:00
  when I wound up buying it.
• 15:01
  I,
• 15:01
  I thought 40 points was really easy.
• 15:03
  You have 3 candidates in the race,
• 15:04
  you should be able to get more than a 40 point,
• 15:07
  uh,
• 15:07
  win.
• 15:08
  Uh,
• 15:08
  but he didn't.
• 15:08
  What was the final on that one again?
• 15:10
  And just to give it back to you,
• 15:11
  it was,
• 15:11
  uh,
• 15:13
  not even 30,
• 15:13
  and he won by 28.
• 15:14
  So really,
• 15:15
  I mean,
• 15:15
  look,
• 15:16
  Lindsey,
• 15:16
  Lindsey Graham being an embarrassment is not breaking news.
• 15:18
  Maybe,
• 15:19
  we might be leading the show with it,
• 15:20
  but it's not exactly
• 15:22
  new
• 15:22
  to anyone.
• 15:23
  So that's where we were.
• 15:24
  I wanna take a quick break,
• 15:25
  I'm gonna come back on the other side,
• 15:26
  and I'm gonna give you
• 15:28
  every single position.
• 15:29
  There's more than 20 of them,
• 15:30
  every single position we had
• 15:31
  during the election last night
• 15:33
  and how each one of them did.
• 15:35
  We'll give you those results here in just a moment.
• 15:41
  Welcome back to Predictable with Stu.
• 15:43
  Join us at predictableshw.com or on the YouTube page,
• 15:46
  youtube.com/atpredictableshow and of course at Predictable show on all social,
• 15:51
  social media.
• 15:52
  So one of the things we try to do,
• 15:53
  uh,
• 15:54
  after each election is go through all of our positions that we took,
• 15:58
  uh,
• 15:58
  during,
• 15:58
  uh,
• 15:58
  a particular primary and,
• 16:00
  uh,
• 16:01
  I'm just
• 16:02
  reading them off to you,
• 16:03
  telling you what,
• 16:04
  what we,
• 16:04
  what we have,
• 16:05
  what we learned.
• 16:07
  And,
• 16:07
  uh,
• 16:08
  you know,
• 16:09
  kind of looking back at a record because that's what you have to do in this,
• 16:11
  in this whole world,
• 16:12
  right?
• 16:13
  You can't just
• 16:14
  throw flyers at the window and not think about it.
• 16:16
  You need to look back,
• 16:18
  understand
• 16:19
  where
• 16:20
  you are kind of coming from,
• 16:22
  what your process was.
• 16:23
  Is it a process pro?
• 16:24
  Is it a launch problem or a design problem?
• 16:27
  Did you screw up because you,
• 16:29
  if you missed something because you just didn't think it through correctly,
• 16:31
  what can you improve for next time?
• 16:33
  And then did you win because
• 16:34
  you got lucky,
• 16:35
  or did you win because your process was good?
• 16:37
  And if you analyze that week after week after week,
• 16:39
  you start improving your process and you start winning even more.
• 16:42
  So let me tell you what we did here.
• 16:44
  I'll give you these,
• 16:45
  uh,
• 16:45
  of course,
• 16:45
  we talked about Maine a little bit,
• 16:46
  yeah,
• 16:47
  uh,
• 16:47
  already.
• 16:48
  Plattner,
• 16:48
  uh,
• 16:49
  yes,
• 16:49
  uh,
• 16:49
  to win,
• 16:50
  we hit that.
• 16:51
  Uh,
• 16:51
  then we had,
• 16:52
  uh,
• 16:52
  Mills
• 16:53
  not to win.
• 16:54
  Uh,
• 16:55
  we also hit that.
• 16:56
  We also had another,
• 16:57
  uh,
• 16:57
  earlier
• 16:58
  position on Golden not
• 17:00
  to win.
• 17:01
  Uh,
• 17:01
  and it's not even wound up being in the race,
• 17:03
  but that one did pay
• 17:04
  as well
• 17:05
  yesterday.
• 17:06
  Uh,
• 17:06
  Nevada governor,
• 17:07
  we had Ford,
• 17:08
  yes,
• 17:09
  to win,
• 17:10
  and Hill,
• 17:11
  no,
• 17:12
  which we also
• 17:13
  did win,
• 17:14
  so 2 more wins there,
• 17:16
  um,
• 17:16
  kind of the opposite side of the coin,
• 17:18
  if you will.
• 17:19
  Uh,
• 17:19
  in North Dakota,
• 17:20
  the House race at large there,
• 17:22
  uh,
• 17:22
  Fedorchyk,
• 17:23
  uh,
• 17:23
  we had to win that race,
• 17:25
  that was correct,
• 17:26
  wound up coming in.
• 17:27
  And
• 17:28
  Blaz,
• 17:29
  I don't know how to pronounce that name,
• 17:30
  uh,
• 17:31
  but whatever it was,
• 17:31
  B A L A Z S B A L A Z S.
• 17:35
  Uh,
• 17:35
  no,
• 17:36
  we did not think that was going to be a victory and we were correct on that one.
• 17:39
  Over the South Carolina Senate,
• 17:40
  uh,
• 17:41
  Lindsey Graham to win,
• 17:42
  as we mentioned,
• 17:42
  our largest dollar
• 17:44
  position,
• 17:45
  uh,
• 17:45
  was a yes and Lynch not to win,
• 17:48
  uh,
• 17:48
  was a win as well
• 17:50
  for us.
• 17:51
  Not for Lynch,
• 17:52
  unfortunately for him,
• 17:53
  and I don't know,
• 17:54
  I don't know Lynch very well,
• 17:55
  but Lindsey Graham's annoying enough that I'm just pretty
• 17:57
  confident that whoever else was there would probably be
• 17:59
  better.
• 18:00
  Um,
• 18:00
  in,
• 18:01
  uh,
• 18:01
  the main Senate race as well,
• 18:03
  we did have a small position on,
• 18:04
  uh,
• 18:05
  Susan Collins,
• 18:06
  uh,
• 18:06
  for a couple of percent even though she was running
• 18:08
  unopposed.
• 18:08
  We'll,
• 18:09
  we'll take it,
• 18:09
  right?
• 18:10
  It's,
• 18:10
  it's free money.
• 18:11
  Uh,
• 18:11
  yes,
• 18:12
  uh,
• 18:12
  for Susan Collins,
• 18:13
  and that was a win.
• 18:14
  In,
• 18:15
  uh,
• 18:15
  the main margin markets,
• 18:18
  we hit
• 18:19
  with
• 18:20
  Graham Plattner.
• 18:21
  Uh,
• 18:22
  winning by more than 50%,
• 18:25
  uh,
• 18:25
  percentage points.
• 18:26
  Uh,
• 18:26
  that was a yes we had on that market and it was a win for us as well.
• 18:31
  And Graham Plattner winning by between 10 and 20%.
• 18:34
  We said no,
• 18:35
  it's gonna be more than that,
• 18:36
  and we were correct as well.
• 18:38
  Another win there.
• 18:39
  Uh,
• 18:40
  a couple of other minor ones here,
• 18:42
  California,
• 18:42
  06,
• 18:43
  Stansfield,
• 18:44
  uh,
• 18:44
  no.
• 18:45
  We had a few percent on that one
• 18:47
  and we're able to win.
• 18:48
  South Carolina governor,
• 18:49
  this one's an interesting one.
• 18:52
  she,
• 18:52
  we had a Nancy Mace to win,
• 18:54
  uh,
• 18:54
  and we did not,
• 18:55
  we were not correct on that.
• 18:56
  Uh,
• 18:57
  Ralph Norman to win.
• 18:58
  We were not correct on that,
• 18:59
  but we lost our investment on that.
• 19:02
  Ron Reddy is an interesting one.
• 19:03
  Ron Reddy was the 3rd or the 3rd or 5th candidate,
• 19:07
  however you want to look at it.
• 19:07
  I think he finished 4th in the actual race.
• 19:09
  We had him to win.
• 19:10
  We did wind up being profitable on that particular one,
• 19:13
  up,
• 19:13
  uh,
• 19:13
  about doubled our money,
• 19:15
  uh,
• 19:15
  but that being said,
• 19:16
  he didn't win.
• 19:17
  He didn't get into the The real goal of that
• 19:19
  was him to get into the runoff,
• 19:20
  but
• 19:21
  we did get a profit,
• 19:21
  so we'll cut that as a win as well.
• 19:23
  In Maine,
• 19:24
  uh,
• 19:24
  the Plattner vote percentage,
• 19:25
  this is another way you can play the vote percentage.
• 19:27
  You can do it by margin.
• 19:29
  How much does he win over another candidate,
• 19:30
  or just how much does is his total vote percentage going to be.
• 19:35
  So we had,
• 19:36
  uh,
• 19:36
  there was a market that said,
• 19:37
  is Graham Plattner gonna be below 60%?
• 19:40
  And we said no,
• 19:41
  we were correct on that one.
• 19:43
  Then we had another market.
• 19:44
  Will Graham Plattner between 60 and 65% of the vote?
• 19:48
  We said no on that one,
• 19:50
  and we were correct on that one as well.
• 19:52
  And then in South Carolina,
• 19:54
  we had the same situation,
• 19:56
  um,
• 19:56
  we kind of played it the same way as we did with Plattner.
• 19:59
  Um,
• 19:59
  margin of victory,
• 20:00
  uh,
• 20:01
  Lindsey Graham by 40 points.
• 20:03
  I already,
• 20:03
  uh,
• 20:04
  complained to you about how,
• 20:05
  how I'm annoyed about that particular one.
• 20:06
  I was wrong on that.
• 20:07
  He won by 28.
• 20:09
  Uh,
• 20:09
  but
• 20:10
  we also played the other side of it.
• 20:11
  We said,
• 20:12
  will he,
• 20:12
  will he win by more than 15%?
• 20:15
  We said,
• 20:15
  yeah,
• 20:15
  uh,
• 20:16
  we said,
• 20:16
  uh,
• 20:17
  yes,
• 20:17
  uh,
• 20:18
  and we wound up winning with that
• 20:20
  particular market.
• 20:21
  And then will he get at least 50% of the vote?
• 20:23
  Lindsey Graham was another market we were in,
• 20:25
  uh,
• 20:26
  and,
• 20:26
  uh,
• 20:27
  we won with that as well.
• 20:28
  So,
• 20:29
  I mean,
• 20:29
  you're looking at here 123456789,
• 20:33
  1011,
• 20:33
  1213,
• 20:34
  1415,
• 20:35
  1617,
• 20:35
  1819,
• 20:36
  2021.
• 20:37
  So we.
• 20:38
  Hit 18 of 21 positions that we had
• 20:41
  yesterday's market.
• 20:42
  Uh,
• 20:42
  am I excited about that?
• 20:43
  Yeah,
• 20:43
  I mean,
• 20:43
  I think I will tell you,
• 20:45
  it was
• 20:45
  one of the larger,
• 20:47
  sort of,
• 20:47
  sort of total dollars,
• 20:49
  one of the larger,
• 20:50
  uh,
• 20:50
  wins that we've had so far.
• 20:52
  Part of that is because we keep building our bankroll,
• 20:54
  right?
• 20:54
  We,
• 20:54
  we're taking these
• 20:55
  dollars that we're making in one election,
• 20:56
  we're pushing to the next week.
• 20:58
  And,
• 20:58
  you know,
• 20:58
  we're being smart about it.
• 20:59
  We're not over,
• 21:00
  overly investing,
• 21:01
  making positions that we're
• 21:03
  more confident than we are,
• 21:04
  but
• 21:05
  a couple of these,
• 21:05
  particularly Plattner and Graham,
• 21:07
  were pretty large positions for me.
• 21:09
  Um,
• 21:09
  that's how we kind of size our positions,
• 21:11
  or at least we're thinking about small,
• 21:12
  medium,
• 21:12
  and large.
• 21:13
  It was a large positions for me.
• 21:14
  Even though they were smaller percentage gains,
• 21:16
  we were able to take that with a decent amount of money on top of it
• 21:19
  and bring in some extra dollars.
• 21:20
  So hopefully,
• 21:21
  you did the same thing.
• 21:22
  Hopefully,
• 21:22
  you were in on a lot of these markets.
• 21:24
  I heard from a ton of you
• 21:26
  who were in on these markets
• 21:27
  and were winning along with us.
• 21:29
  That's what I love doing.
• 21:30
  It's one thing to,
• 21:31
  you know,
• 21:31
  honestly,
• 21:32
  it's one thing to sit in front of your dumb computer all day as I did yesterday.
• 21:35
  And fiddle with these markets and try to get the maximum amount of profit
• 21:39
  possible.
• 21:40
  It's a lot of fun
• 21:41
  to do in the,
• 21:42
  in the moment,
• 21:42
  and then,
• 21:42
  you know,
• 21:43
  it gets kind of over.
• 21:44
  When you're sharing it with a great group of people like you,
• 21:48
  uh,
• 21:48
  it,
• 21:48
  it's a lot more satisfying,
• 21:49
  frankly.
• 21:50
  I love hearing your stories,
• 21:51
  honestly,
• 21:51
  about whether you've won,
• 21:53
  even some of the stories where you've lost and you're disappointed,
• 21:56
  but you realize,
• 21:56
  hey,
• 21:57
  I made a mistake.
• 21:57
  This way or I had,
• 21:58
  you know,
• 21:59
  a bad beat this way or whatever the story is,
• 22:01
  I'd love to hear them.
• 22:02
  Drop them,
• 22:02
  drop them at predictableshow.com or on Twitter or,
• 22:06
  you know,
• 22:07
  Facebook,
• 22:07
  wherever you are,
• 22:08
  uh,
• 22:08
  put the comments in the feed
• 22:10
  and we will,
• 22:10
  uh,
• 22:11
  find them and hopefully respond to you.
• 22:13
  We try to respond to as many
• 22:14
  as we possibly can,
• 22:15
  particularly on substack.
• 22:16
  If you're at predictableshow.com,
• 22:18
  put your email address in there,
• 22:19
  you can comment.
• 22:20
  And when you do so,
• 22:21
  I do my best to go through those
• 22:23
  as long,
• 22:23
  as much as I can and respond to,
• 22:25
  even if it's like a
• 22:26
  specific question to maybe something you're dealing with,
• 22:28
  I'll do my best to try to understand it and give you a quick response if I can.
• 22:32
  So,
• 22:32
  if you're learning,
• 22:33
  if you're trying to put these things together
• 22:34
  at predictableshow.com is the place to go.
• 22:38
  Predictableshow.com.
• 22:40
  I have some of your comments,
• 22:41
  some of your questions that I think might help everybody,
• 22:43
  uh,
• 22:43
  to answer,
• 22:44
  so we'll do that here
• 22:45
  next.
• 22:48
  Looking at your comments at predictable show,
• 22:51
  go there,
• 22:52
  put your email address in,
• 22:53
  win with us when we win,
• 22:55
  and
• 22:56
  don't tell us as much about
• 22:58
  how you're losing with us if we lose.
• 22:59
  Generally speaking though,
• 23:00
  it's been really,
• 23:00
  really positive so far.
• 23:02
  I wanna take some of your comments,
• 23:03
  uh,
• 23:04
  from last night's
• 23:05
  live streams and other stuff that we did yesterday.
• 23:09
  Uh,
• 23:09
  Nate writes in already 300% up on that Nancy Mace suggestion
• 23:14
  based on volatility two days ago,
• 23:16
  re-bought at 2%.
• 23:18
  So this is the one we're talking about that South Carolina governor race.
• 23:20
  A lot of people had that experience where they bought at 1 or 2%.
• 23:24
  Uh,
• 23:24
  Mace went up to,
• 23:25
  I think,
• 23:25
  8% at one point
• 23:27
  before the election.
• 23:28
  She wound up coming in 5th place and really never made a run,
• 23:30
  but if you were aggressive,
• 23:31
  you could have sold out of that position.
• 23:33
  I did that with Ron Reddy,
• 23:34
  another one of the,
• 23:34
  um,
• 23:35
  uh,
• 23:36
  another politician.
• 23:37
  In that particular contest.
• 23:39
  So hopefully,
• 23:39
  a lot of you did that because unfortunately,
• 23:41
  our larger play there didn't wind up,
• 23:42
  uh,
• 23:43
  picking up.
• 23:43
  Um,
• 23:44
  let's say Harris Weert writes,
• 23:46
  Stu,
• 23:47
  I took a small position on Allen Wilson in South Carolina at 13%.
• 23:50
  That's a good price on Wilson.
• 23:52
  My thinking is that he gives,
• 23:53
  if he makes the runoff,
• 23:54
  his odds will jump.
• 23:55
  What are your thoughts on that?
• 23:56
  That's exactly what my thought was on playing those lower three candidates.
• 24:00
  You catch one of them.
• 24:01
  Honestly,
• 24:01
  if I could have found,
• 24:02
  uh,
• 24:02
  Wilson at 13,
• 24:03
  I may have played all four of them and just hoped,
• 24:05
  uh,
• 24:06
  you know,
• 24:06
  one of them was going to be in the runoff.
• 24:07
  It was just who would,
• 24:09
  would make it there.
• 24:09
  I wonder what,
• 24:10
  have we checked yet
• 24:12
  what that,
• 24:13
  what that race came out to
• 24:15
  after.
• 24:17
  The runoff was set.
• 24:19
  Let's see if I can find that real quick.
• 24:21
  Uh,
• 24:21
  let's see.
• 24:22
  South Carolina,
• 24:23
  here we go.
• 24:24
  Um,
• 24:24
  I thought it would be between 20 and 30.
• 24:26
  It's 24.
• 24:27
  So we'll,
• 24:28
  it's 7,
• 24:28
  uh,
• 24:28
  75,
• 24:29
  25 basically.
• 24:31
  Uh,
• 24:31
  when you come to what percentage chance it is for Yvette to win
• 24:34
  and Wilson to win,
• 24:35
  um,
• 24:35
  Yvette is the Trump nominee.
• 24:37
  We do have a position on that as well,
• 24:39
  which we don't know if that's gonna pay off or not,
• 24:41
  uh,
• 24:41
  right now.
• 24:41
  It's basically flat.
• 24:43
  Uh,
• 24:43
  at some point we will know that here in the next couple of weeks.
• 24:45
  Uh,
• 24:46
  we may come back into this race,
• 24:47
  honestly.
• 24:48
  Uh,
• 24:48
  I'm gonna wait a little bit.
• 24:49
  People were asking me,
• 24:50
  when do you jump back in on Yvette?
• 24:52
  Do you go with Wilson on the longer shot?
• 24:54
  I'm gonna wait a little bit of time here.
• 24:55
  I mean,
• 24:55
  I will say,
• 24:56
  Yvette,
• 24:56
  I will,
• 24:57
  because of the Trump endorsement and a five-person field,
• 25:00
  I thought Yvette underperformed
• 25:01
  what she should have expected to get there.
• 25:03
  She only beat
• 25:04
  Wilson by about 3 or 4 points,
• 25:06
  which is kind of scary,
• 25:07
  I think if you're,
• 25:08
  if you're Yvette,
• 25:09
  you want a bigger win than that,
• 25:10
  you're gonna take now.
• 25:12
  Uh,
• 25:13
  half the vote,
• 25:14
  uh,
• 25:14
  and,
• 25:15
  and divide it up,
• 25:16
  I would say you have Ralph Norman,
• 25:19
  who is a,
• 25:20
  you know,
• 25:20
  Nikki Haley type candidate.
• 25:22
  You'd think most of his vote is going to go the Wilson way rather than the Yvette way.
• 25:27
  Nancy Mace
• 25:28
  dropped out of the race,
• 25:29
  had a pretty funny tweet about how she got her ass kicked,
• 25:31
  which was kind of funny.
• 25:32
  Uh,
• 25:33
  but then she also endorsed Wilson.
• 25:34
  So those two have endorsed Wilson.
• 25:36
  Um,
• 25:36
  Ron Reddy,
• 25:37
  I think will probably go more the Yvette way,
• 25:40
  but,
• 25:40
  you know,
• 25:40
  it's hard to know exactly.
• 25:41
  At the end of the day,
• 25:42
  it's an interesting race.
• 25:43
  I,
• 25:43
  I,
• 25:44
  I feel like Wilson's probably slightly undervalued right now,
• 25:47
  but I'm not gonna really jump in
• 25:49
  too hard
• 25:49
  at the moment.
• 25:50
  Um,
• 25:51
  though our thesis statement of,
• 25:52
  of Trump endorses,
• 25:55
  uh,
• 25:55
  you know,
• 25:55
  is,
• 25:55
  it does play into my head a little bit here,
• 25:58
  uh,
• 25:58
  because,
• 25:58
  you know,
• 25:59
  in a race where it's only two people,
• 26:01
  a lot of people who love Donald Trump in South Carolina
• 26:03
  might wind up going with
• 26:05
  who he endorsed,
• 26:06
  especially if he gets out there and campaigns and,
• 26:08
  and puts,
• 26:09
  puts some,
• 26:09
  uh,
• 26:09
  elbow.
• 26:10
  Grease into it.
• 26:11
  So far it hasn't really done that.
• 26:12
  We will see if that goes forward.
• 26:13
  OK,
• 26:14
  next question.
• 26:14
  Jared Curry writes,
• 26:15
  I bought a couple of shares of Lindsey Graham,
• 26:17
  winning by at least 55%
• 26:20
  to cover a long shot
• 26:22
  of at least 65%,
• 26:24
  hoping it pays off.
• 26:25
  Well,
• 26:25
  if that is the right,
• 26:26
  winning by 55% or 65%,
• 26:28
  he did not do that.
• 26:28
  He underperformed.
• 26:30
  Uh,
• 26:30
  so,
• 26:30
  but that is a strategy that we use.
• 26:32
  I call it laddering.
• 26:33
  I don't know if we've ever discussed this,
• 26:34
  but basically,
• 26:34
  like,
• 26:35
  You take a more sure thing,
• 26:37
  uh,
• 26:38
  uh,
• 26:38
  where you're going to get some returns,
• 26:40
  and then you take the profit off of that quote unquote,
• 26:42
  sure thing
• 26:43
  and
• 26:44
  you invest that in a long shot.
• 26:46
  All right?
• 26:46
  So it kind of covers you if you miss on the long shot,
• 26:49
  but if you connect on the long shot,
• 26:51
  then you win both and everybody's happy in the entire world.
• 26:53
  That's how that usually happens,
• 26:54
  or at least it can.
• 26:55
  Uh,
• 26:56
  A2AX Phoenix
• 26:58
  writes,
• 26:59
  already got OW on Shaw in Maine plus 20%.
• 27:03
  Shaw was the Democratic,
• 27:04
  uh,
• 27:04
  candidate.
• 27:05
  Uh,
• 27:05
  in,
• 27:06
  uh,
• 27:06
  Maine for governor.
• 27:08
  Um,
• 27:08
  we have,
• 27:08
  let's see if I can find that market in case you've been following it
• 27:12
  real quick.
• 27:12
  Uh,
• 27:14
  Shaw is
• 27:16
  still in the race.
• 27:17
  You know,
• 27:18
  this is,
• 27:18
  that's right,
• 27:18
  they have the,
• 27:19
  um,
• 27:20
  Ranked choice voting there,
• 27:21
  so we don't know what the heck is gonna happen.
• 27:23
  Shaw seems to be the 2nd favorite right now,
• 27:24
  but,
• 27:25
  uh,
• 27:26
  Phoenix was able to
• 27:27
  jump in,
• 27:27
  get the 20% profit,
• 27:29
  jump out,
• 27:29
  pocket the cash,
• 27:31
  move on with their lives.
• 27:32
  Oh,
• 27:32
  it,
• 27:32
  you know,
• 27:33
  sometimes you'll feel bad about not staying in and
• 27:36
  collecting the maximum amount,
• 27:38
  but honestly,
• 27:39
  it's never bad to take a profit,
• 27:40
  never a bad thing.
• 27:41
  Stack
• 27:41
  your gains,
• 27:42
  stack with Stu.
• 27:43
  Um,
• 27:44
  OK,
• 27:44
  Chopper writes,
• 27:45
  my first win.
• 27:46
  Time to take this and turn it into my retirement.
• 27:48
  Yes,
• 27:48
  Chopper,
• 27:49
  we are on the path to you at a beach
• 27:52
  with,
• 27:53
  uh,
• 27:53
  a boat and,
• 27:54
  um,
• 27:55
  I don't know.
• 27:56
  You know,
• 27:57
  I don't know,
• 27:57
  a delicious ice cream cone.
• 27:58
  Whatever it is,
• 27:59
  whatever you wanna do for your retirement,
• 28:00
  hopefully,
• 28:01
  it's coming through,
• 28:01
  and this is gonna help,
• 28:02
  maybe a little bit.
• 28:03
  Maybe it makes your retirement,
• 28:04
  but maybe it doesn't pay for your entire retirement,
• 28:06
  maybe it makes that retirement a little bit better.
• 28:08
  Maybe there's a nicer restaurant in your future.
• 28:09
  Maybe there's a nicer,
• 28:11
  uh,
• 28:11
  maybe there's a nicer present for your,
• 28:12
  your son or your grandson or your daughter,
• 28:14
  your granddaughter.
• 28:15
  Maybe
• 28:16
  it's just a,
• 28:16
  you know,
• 28:17
  it's,
• 28:17
  it's just a 250-foot yacht.
• 28:20
  Whatever it comes to for you
• 28:22
  is,
• 28:22
  is great.
• 28:23
  OK.
• 28:23
  Uh,
• 28:23
  this is a longer one,
• 28:24
  but I wanted to feature it cause I,
• 28:25
  I just,
• 28:26
  I love the,
• 28:26
  uh,
• 28:28
  I love the vibes of this.
• 28:30
  Uh,
• 28:30
  Homer writes,
• 28:31
  love all the content.
• 28:32
  Every time I go against you,
• 28:33
  I lose.
• 28:36
  First of all,
• 28:36
  thank you.
• 28:37
  Uh,
• 28:37
  secondly,
• 28:37
  uh,
• 28:38
  uh,
• 28:38
  almost every,
• 28:38
  uh,
• 28:39
  trade I've made with you,
• 28:40
  I've made money.
• 28:41
  That's good,
• 28:41
  we like that.
• 28:42
  I couldn't imagine Massey losing,
• 28:44
  that was from a few weeks ago,
• 28:45
  and got savagely decimated on that one.
• 28:48
  I've also made several mistakes on the margin and percentage markets.
• 28:51
  Embarrassing considering what my day job is.
• 28:53
  Uh,
• 28:53
  my seed,
• 28:54
  so the money he's putting in his bankroll,
• 28:56
  if you will,
• 28:57
  was 100%,
• 28:58
  this is a good idea,
• 28:59
  by the way,
• 29:00
  100% money I could afford to lose.
• 29:02
  Very good way to start.
• 29:04
  My goal is after November to fully recover,
• 29:07
  really should have uh listened sooner about Massey.
• 29:09
  Uh,
• 29:09
  using preset limit orders tonight helps me take out the emotion.
• 29:13
  That's a,
• 29:13
  that's a tough thing.
• 29:14
  I will say trading is tough with emotion.
• 29:16
  I made 25% on the limits
• 29:18
  that executed,
• 29:19
  which was almost all of them.
• 29:20
  Most markets I got in less than a week ago.
• 29:22
  I only lost on,
• 29:23
  on the South Carolina governor race,
• 29:24
  but Mace popping up earlier covered half of those tiny losses.
• 29:28
  So many people had that experience.
• 29:29
  We talked about it.
• 29:30
  I mess,
• 29:30
  I put a message out
• 29:32
  on Predictable show's website
• 29:34
  as well saying,
• 29:35
  hey,
• 29:36
  you know,
• 29:36
  these are up.
• 29:36
  You can take your profits now,
• 29:37
  or you can let them ride,
• 29:38
  one of the two,
• 29:39
  but at the very least,
• 29:40
  we're all at least up right now.
• 29:41
  Every one of those positions we recommended at the beginning wound up doubling.
• 29:45
  I wound up taking some profits off of one of them and letting the other two ride,
• 29:48
  uh,
• 29:48
  to,
• 29:49
  you know,
• 29:49
  uh,
• 29:50
  essentially a break-even position.
• 29:51
  I might have actually lost a couple of bucks on those,
• 29:53
  but
• 29:53
  overall,
• 29:54
  not too worried about it.
• 29:54
  It was small dollars.
• 29:56
  Anyway,
• 29:56
  uh,
• 29:56
  I put too much of a flyer on stupid Graham.
• 30:00
  Lindsey Graham,
• 30:01
  who's always a disappointment,
• 30:03
  very,
• 30:03
  no,
• 30:03
  no,
• 30:04
  that should be his campaign slogan.
• 30:06
  Lindsey Graham,
• 30:07
  always a disappointment.
• 30:09
  Uh,
• 30:09
  anyway,
• 30:09
  he says,
• 30:10
  I was a,
• 30:10
  it was a rough start and I expected that,
• 30:12
  and I really appreciate you and the team making
• 30:14
  the show and not just keeping it to yourself.
• 30:16
  That's gonna be a ton of extra work.
• 30:18
  I hope that the show
• 30:19
  makes you guys money like I'm starting to make watching it.
• 30:22
  That's awesome,
• 30:22
  Homer.
• 30:22
  I love that,
• 30:23
  that experience.
• 30:23
  I mean,
• 30:24
  because
• 30:25
  Uh,
• 30:25
  it's gonna,
• 30:26
  you're gonna have those days where things don't go your way.
• 30:29
  You're going to get into a market and it's gonna bend the opposite way.
• 30:31
  I mean,
• 30:31
  South Carolina kinda happened.
• 30:32
  I mean,
• 30:33
  really,
• 30:33
  the only thing that could have happened in South Carolina
• 30:36
  to screw up that strategy
• 30:37
  happened.
• 30:39
  OK,
• 30:40
  that's fine.
• 30:41
  You're not gonna win,
• 30:42
  you know,
• 30:42
  you know,
• 30:42
  we're not gonna go 162-0 in our Major League Baseball season.
• 30:45
  We're gonna,
• 30:46
  we,
• 30:46
  we just want to win 100 games,
• 30:48
  right?
• 30:48
  We win 110 games,
• 30:49
  maybe,
• 30:49
  maybe 115 games.
• 30:51
  Uh,
• 30:51
  we,
• 30:51
  we wanna be able to have
• 30:53
  a,
• 30:53
  a really good record over a long period of time.
• 30:56
  We want to keep stacking those games.
• 30:58
  We come building towards the future.
• 30:59
  We're kind of in this together here,
• 31:00
  at least the way that I look at it.
• 31:02
  When I look at your comments.
• 31:04
  I've already
• 31:05
  taken
• 31:06
  several of your comments
• 31:07
  and put little uh marker,
• 31:09
  uh,
• 31:09
  positions
• 31:10
  on them,
• 31:11
  even if I hadn't even looked into it because I wanted to make sure I'm kind of tracking
• 31:15
  the thought process there.
• 31:16
  I love,
• 31:17
  you know,
• 31:17
  not only hearing,
• 31:18
  hey,
• 31:19
  I won 20% on this,
• 31:20
  that's thanks,
• 31:21
  which is great,
• 31:22
  but I also love hearing,
• 31:23
  here's why I wanted to go this direction.
• 31:26
  Here's what I was trying to do.
• 31:28
  Here are the things that I,
• 31:29
  I've learned
• 31:30
  after missing on a position.
• 31:33
  That is how we all get better here.
• 31:34
  And,
• 31:35
  uh,
• 31:35
  you know,
• 31:35
  I'm,
• 31:36
  I'm looking at your results that you're,
• 31:37
  you're,
• 31:38
  you're posting,
• 31:39
  and I'm already seeing
• 31:40
  better results than I was seeing 3 or 4 weeks ago.
• 31:42
  Like people,
• 31:43
  I think are really looking at this and starting to understand how these things work,
• 31:46
  and I love that.
• 31:47
  I,
• 31:47
  I just love that you guys are connecting with this
• 31:49
  and able to make a little profit for yourself
• 31:52
  and build towards the future because November's coming.
• 31:55
  And in November,
• 31:57
  just to give you a preview of what that looks like,
• 31:59
  you've got,
• 32:00
  you know,
• 32:00
  what,
• 32:00
  uh,
• 32:01
  30 Senate races,
• 32:03
  you've got
• 32:04
  hundreds of House races,
• 32:06
  you've got governor races all over the place.
• 32:08
  You've got control of the House and the Senate,
• 32:11
  you've got state Senates,
• 32:13
  you've got a million different races like that.
• 32:15
  You've got margin
• 32:16
  markets for all of them.
• 32:18
  You have,
• 32:19
  uh,
• 32:19
  and,
• 32:19
  and here's the thing about a lot of these races,
• 32:22
  particularly on the
• 32:23
  upper half of what I just described.
• 32:25
  There's tons of money that's going to be in these markets,
• 32:28
  tons of liquidity,
• 32:30
  lots of opportunities all over the place,
• 32:32
  and we wanna have enough money freed up for that time
• 32:35
  to be able to go into those markets
• 32:37
  and profit together,
• 32:38
  because there are going to be a lot of opportunities.
• 32:40
  When you see them,
• 32:41
  send them in,
• 32:42
  let us know,
• 32:42
  let's talk about them,
• 32:43
  let me go through them,
• 32:43
  let me analyze them.
• 32:45
  And maybe we can get some wins together
• 32:47
  because,
• 32:47
  uh,
• 32:47
  you know,
• 32:48
  this isn't a one-way street here.
• 32:49
  I'll do my best to give you my,
• 32:51
  uh,
• 32:51
  my picks and the way I'm thinking about these markets.
• 32:55
  But if you see stuff as well,
• 32:56
  post it.
• 32:57
  Let me know about it.
• 32:58
  Send it to me because,
• 32:59
  uh,
• 32:59
  you know,
• 33:00
  I,
• 33:00
  not only can it be interesting for everyone else to see,
• 33:02
  but it also might help you think through the market
• 33:05
  a little bit more or maybe in a different way.
• 33:07
  I think the more that we kind of talk about this
• 33:09
  stuff and understand each other and where we're coming from,
• 33:12
  the better we're gonna do
• 33:13
  as we hit to November.
• 33:14
  So,
• 33:15
  that's where we are today at predictableShow.com is the place to go.
• 33:18
  Just go there,
• 33:19
  connect with the website,
• 33:20
  start reading the pieces.
• 33:21
  We're gonna probably do another written one this week.
• 33:23
  I had a couple that I've been kind of thinking about and wanting to do for a while.
• 33:27
  We're gonna do some election preview stuff probably tomorrow
• 33:30
  for Tuesday's elections.
• 33:31
  There's not,
• 33:31
  I mean,
• 33:32
  do I still have a machine?
• 33:33
  I don't,
• 33:33
  I don't remember all the elections that we have,
• 33:35
  uh,
• 33:35
  coming up this week.
• 33:36
  There's not a ton.
• 33:37
  Uh,
• 33:37
  but we'll try to find a couple that we can maybe take advantage of and,
• 33:40
  and build those gains a little bit more.
• 33:42
  And then next week we have a lot of,
• 33:44
  uh,
• 33:45
  really interesting stuff as well.
• 33:46
  Tomorrow,
• 33:47
  another show for you.
• 33:48
  Um,
• 33:49
  I,
• 33:49
  I,
• 33:49
  we should think about,
• 33:50
  should we look at the UFC
• 33:52
  event at the White House for fun
• 33:54
  tomorrow?
• 33:54
  Cause that could be,
• 33:56
  I don't know anything about the UFC.
• 33:57
  I don't know anything about MMA.
• 33:58
  I don't know anything about UFC,
• 34:00
  but I am mildly interesting that we've got a
• 34:01
  giant fight breaking out on the White House lawn,
• 34:03
  and that I kinda wanna talk about,
• 34:05
  so maybe we'll go into that as well.
• 34:06
  If you have any thoughts on that,
• 34:07
  if you know that stuff,
• 34:08
  send them in
• 34:09
  cause that could be fun as well.
• 34:10
  All right,
• 34:11
  thanks so much for joining us on social media at Predictable show.
• 34:13
  It's predictable with Stu,
• 34:15
  uh,
• 34:15
  also at,
• 34:16
  uh,
• 34:17
  YouTube,
• 34:17
  youtube.com/atpredictableshow
• 34:20
  and join us with your email at predictableshow,
• 34:23
  the website predictableshow.com.
• 34:26
  See you.