Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 91 - 8/6/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:18Hello, and welcome to episode 91 of the All Systems Go Sports
- 0:24Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
- 0:27I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
- 0:34Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena,
- 0:37guys. And guess what?
- 0:39We got another big day of Major League Baseball.
- 0:42I know football is on the horizon here.
- 0:44We do have actually some preseason games coming up here
- 0:47on Thursday. I'm already seeing some line
- 0:49movement. We saw the Patriots.
- 0:51Looks like Carolina Panthers are going to sit everybody.
- 0:53Patriots went from like -1 1/2 to -6 1/2.
- 0:56Then also we have Detroit in the New York Giants where we've seen
- 0:59that line move a little bit to the G men -3 up to -3 1/2 also.
- 1:03You're going to see this happen quite a bit.
- 1:05Totals are dropping expecting lower scoring games.
- 1:07Carolina New England fell from like 34 down to 33 1/2 and we've
- 1:12seen Detroit, New York Giants fall 36 down to 34 1/2.
- 1:15So we do have of course football on the horizon.
- 1:18Friday we do have three games and then Saturday we have nine
- 1:21games. So expect to talk a little bit
- 1:23of preseason football again, looking at information based
- 1:26bets, line moves, trying to line up everything in One Direction
- 1:30and not force anything, but also not layoff things that are, you
- 1:33know, banging on the door telling us that they're sharp.
- 1:35So stay tuned later in the week for some NFL pre season betting.
- 1:39But for today, as I mentioned, another baseball day, which is
- 1:42fine with me. I got a four pack of sweats that
- 1:45I'm excited to share with you, including three favorites and
- 1:48one dog. So let's even get a dog to bark.
- 1:51Dog that did bark for us last night.
- 1:53Now looking back toward last night, two and 1 + 0.75 units,
- 1:57you love to see it. Remember we went into yesterday
- 1:59saying, hey, we got 3 bets, let's try to go two and one, eke
- 2:02out a profit and post a winning day.
- 2:04That's exactly what we did. Remember the Red Sox?
- 2:07Huge bet. I joked yesterday saying hey,
- 2:09you never want to bet on your favorite team just because
- 2:11they're your favorite team. But also, if your favorite team
- 2:13happens to be sharp, contrarian, reverse line, move dog, high
- 2:17total, checking off boxes, then hey, we're going to play it.
- 2:20So I love seeing my team win and my bet win and your bet win with
- 2:24the Red Sox coming through last night, nine to five against
- 2:26Kansas City. And then the gift that keeps on
- 2:29giving. If you have anyone in your life
- 2:31who's a White Sox fan, maybe you should reach out to him, give
- 2:33him a hug, make him feel better. I'm glad that they lost again
- 2:37last night. But now 21 in a row, we did get
- 2:39our Oakland best bet number, big, sharp steam -165 all the
- 2:43way up to -200 and I'm thinking if you want to continue to fade
- 2:47Chicago White Sox, you probably want to bet these opening
- 2:49numbers as soon as they drop because you're seeing a huge
- 2:52steam move basically against them.
- 2:54And if you're going to fade the White Sox, which again, it's
- 2:57been profitable to fade them, to say the least, you probably want
- 2:59to get these numbers early before they get hammered and
- 3:02move a ton, which happened yesterday and again happened, is
- 3:04actually happening again today. So Red Sox, Oakland came
- 3:07through. The only loser was the
- 3:08Guardians. And that was kind of a tough one
- 3:10because the Guardians had multiple leads.
- 3:12Think they're up three to two. They're up five to four.
- 3:15They tied in the 9th to force extras and they lost an extra
- 3:18inning. So kind of a annoying one there
- 3:20with Cleveland failing to get it done.
- 3:22But we did go 2 and 1 + 0.75 units.
- 3:25I will never complain about posting a winning night because
- 3:28that's our goal in sports betting.
- 3:29And I think realistic, realistic expectations.
- 3:32You never hear me say let's go three and O tonight we have 5
- 3:35bets. Let's go, let's go 5 and O.
- 3:36No, we know that sports betting is difficult. 3 bets, let's try
- 3:40to go two and one. Five bets, let's try to go three
- 3:42and two. That way, if you do end up going
- 3:45three and O or five and O, which has happened for us, you feel
- 3:48pretty excited about it. But again, the whole point is
- 3:50just to go into each day trying to produce any winning margin
- 3:54that you can. And we were able to do that
- 3:56yesterday. So looking toward today, let's
- 3:58see if we can run our winning streak to two straight here to
- 4:00start the week and we'll dive right in here to our Major
- 4:03League Baseball slate. So with that being said, let's
- 4:06get right into it guys first. But on the board for me, 6:40 PM
- 4:10Eastern Time, first pitch, we have the San Diego Padres, the
- 4:12fathers, as we like to call them, visiting the Pittsburgh
- 4:15Pirates. Now going into this one, the
- 4:17Padres, 61 and 52, just took two or three against the Rockies.
- 4:21They won Sunday's series finale. 1:50 taking care of business as
- 4:25a -, 220 home favorite. Meanwhile, the Pirates 56 and
- 4:2955, they just dropped two of three against the D backs.
- 4:32They lost Sunday's series finale six to five as a -, 165 home
- 4:36favorite. So pitch match up here for
- 4:39tonight. We have Dylan Cease through a no
- 4:41no couple starts ago. He is 11 and eight 3.42 ERA
- 4:45going for the pods. And the Pirates are going to
- 4:47counter with the lefty Bailey Falter, who's five and seven
- 4:50with a 3.95 ERA. So what do you see across the
- 4:53market? Here, well, kind of classic good
- 4:56Sharp Rd. steam in favor of San Diego.
- 4:58I'm going Padres guys, this game open with San Diego listed
- 5:01around a -, 155 road favorite. We've now seen San Diego, San
- 5:06Diego get bet up to -165 -, 170. I see some books even inching
- 5:11further, maybe toward -180. So I was actually talking to my
- 5:14buddy Gary Garrison, who is a wise guy in his own right and
- 5:18talking about steam moves and reverse line moves and line
- 5:20movement. And I mentioned this to Gary
- 5:22that I love it when a line moves, you know, basically in
- 5:25One Direction with no buyback toward one side.
- 5:27Now, is that going to happen all the time?
- 5:28No, there's going to be buyback. Line can go up, it can come down
- 5:31based on, you know, conflicting money coming in or maybe wise
- 5:35guys seeing value once the number has moved to a certain
- 5:37point. But I always like it when
- 5:39there's just basically uniform movement in One Direction with
- 5:42no buyback. So that's what we're seeing here
- 5:44with San Diego -155 up to -170 even -180 there's really been no
- 5:50buyback whatsoever on Pittsburgh.
- 5:51Tells me that even though the sign is getting a little higher
- 5:54and more expensive towards San Diego, really there's no wise
- 5:57guys saying, hey, now let's hit Pittsburgh.
- 5:58It's been consistent here toward the fathers now San Diego
- 6:02getting around 80% of money line bets and dollars.
- 6:05So both pro and Joe support in addition to that big steam move
- 6:08in their favor. And really this game here
- 6:10matches a ton of systems for me. So if you look at Rd. favorites
- 6:14getting $0.10 of steam or more, they've been great this year. 65
- 6:18and 3764% with a 7% ROI. Also, classic non division
- 6:24favorite value, lack of familiarity, benefiting the
- 6:26better team with San Diego, if you'll get non division Rd.
- 6:30favorites off a win, they're 123 and 9357% with a 2% ROI.
- 6:36And then another system that that we love when both teams are
- 6:39coming off a day off, take the favorite.
- 6:41But in particular, I've been messing around with some of my
- 6:43systems. Always tweak them.
- 6:44You know, feel like, hey, I'm on to something here, but can I
- 6:46tweak it 1 little, you know, inch left or right to make it
- 6:49even better? Well, both coming off a day off
- 6:52take the favorite, but if it's both coming off the day off take
- 6:55the road favorite, it's even better. 205 and one 2961% with a
- 7:005% ROI since 2020. That's a pretty good sample
- 7:03size. Padres by the way, classic Coral
- 7:06to betting value favorite low total total.
- 7:08This game is 8 now it is juiced up at some shops 8 / -, 115, but
- 7:13still 8 is a lower end total, which would give it a
- 7:16correlative betting fair amount of expected run scored more
- 7:19likely to come from quote UN quote that better team who's
- 7:22favored to win. And I'm going to bank on San
- 7:24Diego's bats here. They're hitting 264 with 526
- 7:28runs scored. Pittsburgh's only hitting 233
- 7:30with 468 runs scored. Home Rd. splits also favorite
- 7:34Padres, they're 31 and 23 on the road.
- 7:37Pirates are only 27 and 28 at home and the Padres, they've won
- 7:41four straight games started by Cease.
- 7:43Remember he threw the no no, as I mentioned, but he was good
- 7:45overall in the month of July, he made six starts, had a 2.35 ERA.
- 7:50Meanwhile, Falter, who was on the bump for the Bucks, he had a
- 7:534.91 ERA into July starts and Pittsburgh is only three and
- 7:57eight and his last eleven starts.
- 7:59So we have consistent movement towards San Diego.
- 8:01Good sharp steam, no buyback, non division favorite bunch of
- 8:06system matches, favorite low total.
- 8:08I want to back Cease. I want to back the bats of San
- 8:10Diego. I'm going with the Padres here.
- 8:12Let's go, Dad, start us off with a winner here, guys.
- 8:15I got San Diego a little bit earlier today.
- 8:17Around -165 now you're looking at San Diego.
- 8:20Around -170 -, 175, keep on cruising and ain't broke.
- 8:25Don't fix a play. What do I mean by that?
- 8:28I mean, hey, they cashed for us last night.
- 8:30Same spot tonight. Let's play them again.
- 8:32I'm talking about my Boston Red Sox, and they can be your Boston
- 8:36Red Sox too if you want to sweat them.
- 8:38But anyway, Red Sox going into game two at Kansas City.
- 8:40It's a big series because these teams are battling it out for
- 8:43the last wild card spot. I think the Sox after last
- 8:46night's winner, only now a game or a game and a half back of
- 8:49Kansas City. But the Sox come in 60 and 51,
- 8:52had a huge win for us last night, nine to five beating the
- 8:55Royals as a + 115 row dog pitching matchup for tonight.
- 8:59In the rematch, Sox are going with ready Brian Baio.
- 9:02He's 10 and five with a 5.13 ERA.
- 9:05The Royals, meanwhile, who are 63 and 51, they're going to go
- 9:08with ready Seth Lugo, they're ace.
- 9:10He's 13 and five with a 2.57 ERA.
- 9:13So what we've seen across the market here, well.
- 9:15The Royals open this game around a -, 135 home favorite and the
- 9:20public is saying, hey, Red Sox, you're spunky.
- 9:22You're better than this year than in previous years.
- 9:25But Kansas City has a better record.
- 9:27They're at home. They're laying a short number
- 9:28and they got their ace on the bump, Seth Lugo.
- 9:31So the public is going with the Royals looking at to play Kansas
- 9:34City in a bounce back spot. Currently, 60% of bets are going
- 9:38Royals, yet this line is falling away from Kansas City toward
- 9:42Boston. So even though nearly 2/3 of
- 9:44bets are on the Royals, they open -135 they're down to -130
- 9:49some shops even down to -125 So just like yesterday, where
- 9:52public was Kansas City at line moved to Boston.
- 9:55Same thing tonight, public Kansas City line dropping toward
- 9:58Boston tells me the Red Sox have a good sharp reverse line move
- 10:01in their favor. This is also one of the most
- 10:04heavily bet games of the night. So going with the Red Sox, only
- 10:0740% of money line tickets. You're in a good contrarian
- 10:10system play here. The Red Sox, I'm going to bank
- 10:12on their bats. They're hitting 264 on the year,
- 10:15141 homers, 553 runs scored. Casey's only hitting two, 53122
- 10:22homers, 541 runs scored. Not a huge advantage, but Boston
- 10:25bats have been better. And I'm gonna give you another
- 10:28stat about the Sox offense recently that'll get you excited
- 10:30to sweat Boston tonight. But the Sox, meanwhile, are
- 10:33three and one head to head against the Royals this year.
- 10:35Let's hope that continues. And Brian Baio, even though he's
- 10:39got a good one loss record, 10 and five is ERA isn't great.
- 10:425.13. But the Red Sox are five and one
- 10:45in his last six starts, and he has pitched better.
- 10:47He's given up three earned runs or less in four straight starts
- 10:50and five of his last six. Red Sox.
- 10:53Meanwhile, this is the stat I wanted to mention to you guys.
- 10:56Over the last 10 games, they're hitting 328.
- 10:58The bats are really red hot right now.
- 11:00Royals only hitting 273 last 10, which isn't bad, but compared to
- 11:04Boston, you can tell how good the Sox bats are right now.
- 11:08Also, Coral to betting favorite or sorry, dog high total.
- 11:11So dog Boston totals 8 1/2 again, higher or more expected
- 11:16run score, more variants, more upset opportunities.
- 11:19Also, the Red Sox, you mentioned the stat yesterday which cashed,
- 11:22but the Red Sox as a dog, they're 28 and 26 as a dog. 52%
- 11:27may not seem amazing, 52%, but remember, when you're a dog and
- 11:31you're above 500 in a money line sport, that's pretty damn good.
- 11:34That means the Red Sox had to be 14% ROI.
- 11:37That's the 5th best dog team in baseball.
- 11:40And I took it a step further. I searched in my database.
- 11:42OK, well what? How do they play when they're a
- 11:44dog against a team who missed the playoffs the previous year?
- 11:47Well, guess what, they're even better. 18 and 1358% with a 26%
- 11:52ROI. So the Sox came through for us
- 11:54bigly last night. Wash, rinse, repeat.
- 11:57They're contrarian with the reverse line move.
- 11:59The bats are hot right now. I'm going to bank on the Red Sox
- 12:02here hopefully getting another win for us.
- 12:04Shop around. I was able to get Boston at plus
- 12:071/15. Next one for you, 9:40 PM
- 12:11Eastern Time, Detroit Tigers and the Seattle Mariners.
- 12:14Detroit comes into this 153 and 60.
- 12:17The Tigers have struggled since the break.
- 12:19They just lost three or four to the Kansas City Royals.
- 12:22Meanwhile, the Mariners 59 and 54, they just took two of three
- 12:26against the Phillies. So pitching match up here for
- 12:29tonight in Seattle, we have Kyder Montero or Keator Montero.
- 12:33Kyder Keator. Either way, this Rady is young,
- 12:3624 year old for the Tigers and he's one and five on the year
- 12:40with a 6.18 ERA. He'll be opposed by the veteran
- 12:43righty Luis Castillo. 9 and 10 but a decent 3.43 era so.
- 12:49What we've seen across the market here.
- 12:50Well, not a massive move, but the line is moving towards
- 12:53Seattle. This game opened at a lot of
- 12:55shops around Seattle -190 Seattle is now up to -195 -,
- 13:01200. So again, not a 2030 cent steam
- 13:04move. Not a massive move like the
- 13:05Padres or the line going to the Sox, but this lines pretty much
- 13:08stayed the same or ticked up in favor of Seattle.
- 13:12Now I'm going to go Seattle and I'm not going to call this like
- 13:15a strictly line move play. To me, this is a betting system
- 13:18play because I have a lot of matches here on Seattle.
- 13:21I'll give you a few of them. One would be the classic both
- 13:24day off. Take the favorite mentioned that
- 13:27a second ago of that 61% since 2020.
- 13:30If you look at a good favorite off a loss versus a bad team, so
- 13:34you're favored, you got an above 500 record.
- 13:36You're playing a team below 500. That is 130 and 8560% this
- 13:40season. Winning team favorite offer a
- 13:42loss, 58% favorite with steam versus team who missed the
- 13:45postseason 62%. So I have a lot of like 60 to
- 13:4962% system matches on Seattle. Also classic non division
- 13:54favorite. Seattle's in the AL West.
- 13:56Detroit obviously is in the AL Central.
- 13:58So lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the
- 14:00better team favorite low total told this one is 7 1/2 and it's
- 14:04juiced up under -115 So when you're a bigger favorite of
- 14:08close to -200 and the total is low and it's even juiced under,
- 14:12you know, are you looking at a four nothing Game 5 to one game,
- 14:15something like that? That would be a benefit with the
- 14:18total dropping or juiced under with the line moving toward the
- 14:22favorite and then also home Rd. Detroit 27 and 29 on the road.
- 14:27Seattle 33 and 24 at home last 10.
- 14:30Seattle six and four hitting 239 with a 4 ERA and they're plus 14
- 14:35and run differential. Detroit's three and seven, their
- 14:38last ten only hitting $1.96, four .89 ERA and they're -25 run
- 14:44differential. Also Castillo, he had a 1.99 ERA
- 14:48and five July starts. He was great in the month of
- 14:50July. He's got a 2.82 ERA at home
- 14:53versus 4.14 on the road. So he's been good at home.
- 14:56And then I'm going to start to kind of look at motivation,
- 14:59guys, because obviously we still have all of August, all of
- 15:02September, but you know, the Pennant races are heating up a
- 15:05little bit here. Detroit is definitely not out of
- 15:09it, but they're really not in it either.
- 15:11If you look at the Tigers, they are 14 1/2 games back in the
- 15:15central. And in terms of the wild card,
- 15:17they're 9 1/2 back. So, you know, they're not
- 15:20technically out of it, but they're pretty far out of it.
- 15:23And they've had a lot of injuries.
- 15:24Seattle to me is a bet on because they're they got to take
- 15:27care of business against these lesser opponents because as of
- 15:30right now, they're 1 1/2 games up on Houston.
- 15:33But Houston is right behind them.
- 15:35And Houston, you know, is, is looking like, you know, catch
- 15:39them. Seattle's got to fend them off.
- 15:40Seattle's got to win these games.
- 15:42So that's kind of a motivational edge to keep on winning for
- 15:46Seattle versus Detroit. Who's got injuries?
- 15:49Ship is sinking a bit here. I want to back Seattle a little
- 15:52bit of line movement favorite, low total.
- 15:55We also have non division favorite.
- 15:56I want to back Castillo over Montero.
- 15:59Last 10 stats really favor Seattle over Detroit.
- 16:03I'm going to go with the Seattle here guys.
- 16:05So shop around, try to get anything if you can below -200
- 16:09like I found a book at -195 I see another book at -2 O 5.
- 16:13So to try to get as close to sub -200 as you can.
- 16:17But I'm going to play Seattle here with a lot of good system
- 16:19matches. Then last bit of the night, this
- 16:22is definitely an ain't broke, don't fix it play.
- 16:24And hopefully you read the sharp report that I wrote for
- 16:26visen.com and tweeted out earlier today at Josh under
- 16:30score insights. But I'm talking about the
- 16:32Oakland A's guys, I think we got to keep fading the White Sox.
- 16:36Now, I'm not going to fade them if they're like sharp and it's
- 16:39like in arguably, you know, a wise guy, play in their favor
- 16:42like I'm not going to. I'm probably not going to bet on
- 16:44them, but I'll, you know, have enough to lay off of them.
- 16:47Like, I'll give you an example from yesterday.
- 16:49I had a couple people say, where the hell were you fading Patrick
- 16:51Corbin? Why wasn't that a pic of yours?
- 16:54Well, it's because San Fran open like -175 and they fell the -170
- 16:59So even though I wanted to bet against Corbin, it looked like
- 17:02Washington had a little sharp money.
- 17:03So I'm not going to go directly against smart money.
- 17:06So my point being, as long as Chicago doesn't have obvious
- 17:09smart money line moving in their favor, I think we got a bet
- 17:12against the White Sox. So we did it last night in cash.
- 17:15Let's do it again here tonight. Athletics against the White Sox
- 17:18tonight, 9:40 PM Eastern Time. The A's who are 47 and 67, had a
- 17:23big 5 to one win for us, taking care of business as a -, 195
- 17:27home favorite. The rematch tonight, the White
- 17:29Sox 27 and 88. Unbelievable.
- 17:33They're going to go with ready Jonathan Cannon.
- 17:35He is one and five with a 4.11 ERA.
- 17:38Meanwhile, the A's are going to go with Ross Stripling the
- 17:40righty two and ten 5.6 for ERA. What have you seen across the
- 17:45market here? Well, I kind of alluded to it at
- 17:47the outset of the pod. If you want to bet against
- 17:49Chicago, you really got to bet the overnight number because two
- 17:52nights in a row we had Oakland open like -165 now they're -200
- 17:57even a little bit higher than that.
- 17:59So try to pick off these numbers before they move too much.
- 18:03I was able to bet Oakland a little bit earlier today.
- 18:05I want to say I got them around -190 I'm looking at them now.
- 18:08They're like -210 I see one book -225 So this line is definitely
- 18:12creeping up. But again, if you got a little
- 18:14bit earlier, hopefully you're getting a bit of a better
- 18:17number. But a good sharp steam move -165
- 18:21up now to around -220 at this point, 85% of bets, nearly 90%
- 18:26of money is on the Oakland A's. Also, if you look at system
- 18:30matches, I got a ton on Oakland. Non division home favorite -200
- 18:33or more. Those teams are 73 and 2872%
- 18:37with a 3% ROI. Oakland, by the way, you
- 18:40probably wouldn't guess this. They're actually the 4th best
- 18:43chalk team in baseball. They've only been favored 13
- 18:46times this year, but they're ten and three when they're favored.
- 18:4877 percent, 36% ROI. A's have the better bats, 13230
- 18:53with 147 homers and 467 runs scored.
- 18:58White Sox hitting 216, only 96 homers and 353 runs scored.
- 19:03Chicago, by the way, Awful regardless, but definitely on
- 19:06the road. They're even worse.
- 19:07They're 10 and 48 on the road, by far the worst in baseball.
- 19:11They're O and five and Gannon's or Cannon's last five starts.
- 19:15It's a really struggle when he takes the bump and they're only
- 19:18hitting are actually Oakland's hitting 220 with a 3.89 ERA.
- 19:23Their last 10 games with their six and four Chicago, they've
- 19:26lost 21 in a row. They're O and 10 their last ten,
- 19:29only hitting two O 8 with a 7.74 ERA.
- 19:32And if this ends up being a close game late, hopefully it
- 19:35isn't. Hopefully the Oakland A's get up
- 19:37to a big lead and we don't have to sweat it too much.
- 19:38Wouldn't that be nice? We probably will have to sweat
- 19:41it. I hope not, but that's the way
- 19:42betting goes usually. But the bullpen, big advantage
- 19:45with Oakland. They have a 3.65 bullpen ERA.
- 19:48That's the 7th best in baseball. White Sox are five point O3.
- 19:51That's 29th, 2nd to last. So again, hopefully you read the
- 19:55sharp report and got Oakland a little bit, you know, earlier
- 19:58today at a better price. I'm holding Oakland -195 or -190
- 20:02now you're looking at around -210 even as high as -220.
- 20:06So I know we have some bigger numbers today, guys like San
- 20:08Diego. You know -170 -, 175 Seattle and
- 20:12Oakland -200 or a little bit more.
- 20:15As always, bet to risk verse, bet to win.
- 20:17I can't tell you how important that is.
- 20:19That means that if you're betting, for example, Oakland
- 20:22with me now, let's say your book is -210 betting to win would be
- 20:27you're risking 2.1 units to win one unit.
- 20:29No, no, no, always risk one unit.
- 20:31We're trying to eke out about 1/2 unit back here.
- 20:34Why is that important? Because I hope Oakland wins.
- 20:37They're sharp. I'm playing them but anything
- 20:39can happen if they lose. I don't want to lose 2.1 units
- 20:43by betting to win. I only want to lose 1 unit.
- 20:44I don't want to lose it all obviously, but whole point being
- 20:47with Bettris versus Bet Twins, it sets you up for a bigger ROI
- 20:50if you're on a dog like with Boston, risking one unit trying
- 20:54to get 1.15 units back because they're plus 1:15, but also
- 20:58protect you from losing more or multiple units when you're
- 21:01betting on a favorite. So Long story short guys, we got
- 21:044 bets tonight, Padres, Red Sox, A's and Seattle.
- 21:08Let's try to get three out of four.
- 21:09And he got another winning night.
- 21:12Now that about does it for episode 91 of the All Systems Go
- 21:15Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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- 21:47But secondly, make me happy. Give this podcast a 5 star
- 21:50review, tell a friend, recommend it to a buddy.
- 21:53But of course, if you're on Spotify or iTunes, the five
- 21:56stars would go a long way to helping us to continue to grow
- 21:59the pod to get more, more, more ears, more listens.
- 22:03And again, if there's an option to follow, that would be great
- 22:06too. Just click that.
- 22:06That way you get alerted as soon as the pod drops.
- 22:09Secondly, if you enjoy this style of betting, are we betting
- 22:13based on our heart? No, we're betting based on our
- 22:15head and we're looking at the market the way the the stock
- 22:19market, the people in Wall Street, the way they look at
- 22:22stocks and trading and value and where the money's going.
- 22:25Same thing for us, but from a sports betting perspective.
- 22:28If this style of betting appeals to you, looking at numbers, how
- 22:31they move, monitoring the market, going contrarian,
- 22:34identifying sharp action, looking at bet splits and system
- 22:37matches and flat betting and not parlaying.
- 22:39If that speaks to you, if you've hopefully improved your betting
- 22:43results since listening to the POD, well, here's the thing.
- 22:46I wrote a book, it's called the Everything Guide to Sports
- 22:49Betting. So buy a copy, support the team,
- 22:51let me know you appreciate the hard work that I put in each day
- 22:54putting out this free pod. And if you want to pick a copy
- 22:57up, it's pretty much 20 bucks. Just go to Amazon.com, type in
- 23:01the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
- 23:03It's got everything I've learned in the industry, how lines are
- 23:05set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to
- 23:08locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online,
- 23:12how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
- 23:14management plan, all included in the Everything Guide to sports
- 23:17betting. So pick up a copy when I see at
- 23:20the sports book, bring my book to the book, I'll sign the book
- 23:24and I'll buy you a beer or a ginger ale if you don't drink,
- 23:26which is fine too. But seriously, you've already
- 23:28bought it. Thank you, it really means a lot
- 23:30to me. Of course, I want to give a
- 23:33shout out to my two favorite sports sports betting apps on
- 23:36the market, Rhythm and Juice Reel.
- 23:39They do a great job helping us power this podcast, but I want
- 23:42to make sure you're profiting off of Rhythm and Juice Reel
- 23:45because they're great apps to add to your digital toolbox.
- 23:49Rhythm does a great job with their AI backed models and
- 23:52predictions for both game bets and player props.
- 23:55Actually just unveiled all of their NFL Week 1 plays and
- 24:00system matches. College football's coming up
- 24:02here, so it's a great time right now to download the Rhythm app,
- 24:06get yourself acclimated and ready to go so that for week one
- 24:09of the NFL season, you're ready to start.
- 24:10Cash and bets on both player props, which we'll talk about.
- 24:14Really NFL player props, really pass catching props.
- 24:16Those are my favorite. So we've been quite a few of
- 24:19those this NFL season. But again, whether it's WNBA,
- 24:22golf, any other sports that Rhythm focuses on, it's a great
- 24:26app to add to Arsenal as well as Juice Reel.
- 24:28Juice Reel does a great job for multiple reasons here you can
- 24:32sync up your sports books to the app.
- 24:34They'll automatically send your bets from once you're synced up
- 24:37the book to the app, it'll track your performance.
- 24:40You can learn about yourself as a better if you feel like your
- 24:43picks are really good and you want to sell them, you can
- 24:45actually sell them on the app. 5 bucks for a week of my place.
- 24:49You set your own number. It's kind of cool.
- 24:51I think it's a really cool feature, but also getting the
- 24:53robo Jackson AI best bets each day.
- 24:56I tweeted out today that when I look at the board each morning,
- 25:00I pick out the plays that, you know, our system matches for me
- 25:03that I'm going to play. And then I open up Juice Reel
- 25:05and I look to see what Robo Jackson's got.
- 25:07My goal is to overlap and we had a good overlap yesterday.
- 25:10Robo was on the Red Sox and guess what?
- 25:13Robo's on Oakland today. Be a little AI back to system
- 25:17match. One of the hardest working bots
- 25:19around. So whether it's best bet picks,
- 25:23whether it's sharp mush opportunities, arbitrage bets,
- 25:27syncing up your sports books, whatever the case may be, Juice
- 25:30Reel is great and will help you win.
- 25:32So I want you to go sign up for rhythm and sign up for Juice
- 25:34Reel 7 day free trial. Test it out.
- 25:36Let me know what you think. I think you're going to enjoy
- 25:38it, but I want to make sure you sign up in a specific way.
- 25:40You got to click the custom link that's located in the bio
- 25:43description of my podcast, whether it's on Spotify or
- 25:47iTunes, there should be a link in the bio where it says, hey,
- 25:50episode 91, Josh dishes out a, you know, 4 pack of best bets
- 25:55should be a little bit Scroll down and right there links to
- 25:58sign up for juice rail as well as rhythm.
- 26:00So sign up and add those tools to your toolbox and I think
- 26:04you're going to going to like it.
- 26:06So that about dozen guys last two parting were parting
- 26:10comments. I always like to leave you with
- 26:11number one, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City,
- 26:15Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
- 26:17Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut at the Encore in
- 26:21Boston, or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my
- 26:24neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
- 26:26Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
- 26:28down. Or Billy Walter sends his number
- 26:30runners where lowest use possible is found at the South
- 26:32Point. Or of course, jumping in the
- 26:34stadium swimming pool. And those hot Vegas days when
- 26:37you're at Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to
- 26:39me. You can show me a couple nice
- 26:41winning tickets from last night. Nice.
- 26:43Show me your Red Sox RLM contrarian dog play.
- 26:46Show me an Oakland A's play. Guess what?
- 26:48First one's on me, next one's on you.
- 26:50We're going to post about the book sweatshop contrarian plays
- 26:52all night long. So wish you the best luck.
- 26:55Everyone have a fantastic Tuesday.
- 26:57Let's see if we can stretch our winning streak to two straight
- 27:00again. 4 bets tonight. Let's try to get three of them.
- 27:03And he got a winning night. And of course, I'll always leave
- 27:05you with this at the end of every pot.
- 27:07Little motivational speaker. This is my my Matt Foley living
- 27:11in a van down by the river and hopefully this is a little bit
- 27:14more motivating for USNL fans out there.
- 27:16But anyway, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet against the
- 27:20public, place yourself on the side of the house.
- 27:22Always be with the smart money, never against it.
- 27:25Will smart money when every time?
- 27:26Of course not. Nothing's a lock or a guarantee
- 27:28in sports betting. But here's the thing.
- 27:31If we can consistently stay true to our model as data-driven
- 27:34betters, betting with our head and not our heart against the
- 27:37public with the pros flat bet, avoid parlays again, not get
- 27:43some CLV. If we can do that, we're going
- 27:45to be successful sports bettors long term.
- 27:47So enjoy the sweats, everyone. Another MLB day, let's see if we
- 27:51can get three out of four, eke out another winning night, and
- 27:53then I will see you guys tomorrow for episode Wednesday.
- 27:56Episode Wednesday, episode 92, we're almost at 100.
- 27:59Can you believe it? Episode 92 on a Wednesday,
- 28:02tomorrow of the All Systems Go sports betting podcast powered
- 28:06by Rhythm. Looking forward to seeing you
- 28:07guys then. Have a great night, everybody.
- 28:09Let's see if we can cash some tickets.