Latest / Green Ticker Tales / Dangcem joins the N1k club/ Berger Paints/Firstholdco Q1 2026

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Dangcem joins the N1k club/ Berger Paints/Firstholdco Q1 2026 · Green Ticker Tales

• 0:00
  good afternoon it's going to be a long episode and i strongly would encourage you crossover at 3 p.m nigerian time to go watch the video on youtube discussing a bunch of topics today discussing dango the cement following the joining the 1000 era club i'm discussing the three big paint companies i think three only paint companies on the ngx are active no not actually we have four but the big three the big three paint companies cap
• 0:29
  bigger paints and mayor and then i'm going to be touching briefly on first hold code q1 numbers so starting with the tango this event made history this week this uh concluding week or this just concluded week on the ngx closing at 1088 naira a share i think this stock still has further upside i think easily going by the momentum and just where the stock is trading at
• 0:56
  i think we easily see this top trade at a thousand to a thousand three sometime this year some may argue that some of the momentum we've seen or we saw between the friday was due to news of a potential london listing this year uh but going by the the fundamentals the stock is trading at the moment is trading at the forward and uses 14.2 times 14.2 x
• 1:23
  The five-year earnings CAGR for this stock is 25%. So, meaning it grows its earnings by 25%. So, if we assume that, look, estimated FY2025 earnings per share is 76 Naira, right? Let's assume that in five years' time, this firm is going to have 140 to 150 Naira in earnings per share. The question is, even if you were to use a 10x multiple, or even if you were to say a worst-case scenario,
• 1:52
  in five years time you're looking at 109 earnings per share and you use a 15x multiple or a 13x multiple it means that in five years time you're looking at one three one four one five you get and in any case imagine if you have 109 earnings you're probably going to get even if you were to get in a coin price your energy yield in five years time you're probably looking at maybe what's eight percent nine percent so um i think this stock is easily uh a one two one three stock and secondly
• 2:22
  this is the first i've given you the first explanation going by the gap between its forward earnings of 14.2 x and his earnings kegger of 25x so if you have a forward earnings of 14.2 x and any scale of 25x it means that you can inch up to maybe a 15x or 16x you would still be fair and if you were to do the numbers it simply means that at 76 times 16 you're looking at the target price of one two
• 2:51
  if you're using 76 times 15 you're looking at a target price of 1140 so if you were to say somewhere between 114 11 140 1200 we're still in a good place right we're still in a good place so that's the first way to try and value it between your any skager and where it is forward earnings and you can reprice higher uh second is i like to use a free cash flow as a cement business the bulk of sales i believe is um cash
• 3:20
  and now if you have some regular cash flow which is of course cement right you have a baseline number of cement you're going to sell so if you even were to discount and say look assume that this company has maybe two trillion naira in cash flow and market cap at the moment is 18.3 if you have a company that generates two trillion naira every year as cash flow what would be the value of that company you could argue you should trade at 10 times cash flow
• 3:50
  you could argue you should trade at nine times cash flow, right? But in any case, the cash flow is at 2.2. So if you say 10 times cash flow, you're looking at a market cap of somewhere around maybe 22 trillion or 20 trillion. So even if you're going by cash flow, market cap of say 20 trillion and looking at where the OS is, let's see if we can do the numbers, a market cap of say,
• 4:21
  let's use a market cap of 20 trillion what does that give us 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 uh what does that give us so market cap at 20 trillion and you divide by its um uh what do you divide by you divide market cap by um i'm trying to get the target price market cap by by um os right
• 4:51
  So I'm doing Excel. I have my market cap at E2. So that gives me equals to E2 divided by E4. That gives me E2 and E4. I think I can push this higher. Let's push it to 22.
• 5:29
  two two one two three four five six seven eight nine e2 divided by e4 um oh no no no no i've i've erased a couple of things so it should be e2 let's see hold on and this is why you should do take out the time to crossover to the video it's probably will be easier to understand right so i have uh e2
• 6:07
  divided by um okay let's just walk out the numbers plainly so i have market card 22 billion divided by 18.3 what does that give us 22 billion divided by 18.3 billion what does that give us i see that gives you but we're looking at what about a thousand
• 6:43
  um thousand two or so right yeah about a thousand two so you'll be fair if you say look this should be traded as a thousand two or so i think that's a fair price but going by what the technicals say i think for me and i'm looking let's look at technical analysis because fundamentally speaking there is no argument that this talk should be at 1001 1002 1003 whichever
• 7:11
  formula or whichever evaluation method that i use forward earnings price to free cash flow price operating cash flow we probably arrive at 1002 so let's see what the technicals tell us and let's look for where would be a good resistance and support for this stock so danksem let's see where we are when it comes to resistance and support um let's go there technicals
• 7:41
  What did the technicals say? R3 is 1, 2, 3, 6. So we are just a bit between R2 and R3. R is for resistance as it supports. First support level is 863. Pivot point is 916. So in my view, I think a good place to get into this stock would be the 900 Naira mark. Chances are, though, it might take a while to see this stock at 900. You would need...
• 8:07
  i mean the stock is at 1088 now i shared so pull back to 900 you're probably looking at a bit of a 10 pullback that would barely happen in a single day so maybe you try and cut it into a day intraday during the day's trading you might see that's 950 970 you can then get you know 900 if you're lucky uh but in any case this stock is on its way to 1001 or a thousand to a thousand three let's see how the year goes
• 8:36
  that is dango the cement ladies and gentlemen joined the 1000 era club some days ago now let's look at the paint companies they also have rallied i mean we had cap trading at an all-time high of 233.7 i think beggar paints are 108.6 these stocks have run hard um now in my view between cap beggar paints and mayor beggar beggar is obvious by why do i say so five year any skager for beggar prints 50.4 percent
• 9:06
  at its annualizing its earnings per share for analyzing q1 any special means that the stock is treated at the forward earnings ratio of 17.3 times multiple cap is straight at forward earnings of 30.1 x so cap is cap is pricey um but for the fact that it's the biggest paying company i would probably say it's a sell but um i i think and i don't know i i guess maybe um
• 9:34
  okay i guess i guess there's probably people have their reasons for positioning i think i can put it there people have that probably have their reasons for position in capital there must be a reason why this stock is rallying so hard i don't get it any especially because you look at any scale guys 31 percent and right now the stock is trading at four then is of 30 so i don't see the upside in cap i guess entry point ideally for me will be 190 180 190 because 30 times earnings um
• 10:04
  we don't have margin of safety so getting into cap at 233 is enough for me i think enterprise probably be 180 190 but even at 180 190 the question is if i have bigger pins with the stronger elf much higher any skager and bigger pieces straight out 108 frankly speaking why wouldn't i go for bigger paints going by forward and his backup is straight out 17.2 times four then it's so backup means it's way cheaper than cap has
• 10:32
  faster or higher in his kicker so breaker pins obviously is a buy at this point but even that's 108.6 i think once you probably get in at 90 9500 that's bigger prince may i in my view i'm kind of neutral mayor um now cap i'm neutral obviously because it has run hard it's fully priced when it comes to any scale versus forward endings uh maya maya numbers maya is just um maya is trading cheaper than forward
• 11:02
  that is any skager and his giga for mayor is 18.5 percent five years kiga that is um for the earnings multiple it's 16.6 so i i mean there's not much of a gap there in my view but even the more important point is if you look at your cost of equity and any skigger your cost of equity at 27 you put all the three frames together you have
• 11:29
  mere paint is lagging because if your any scale for mere prints is 18.5 percent your cost of equity is 27 percent even if you drop your cost of making it to 25 percent it starts it's way lower than if your your your earnings growth is way lower than your cost of equity it's not what buying so some might even say there's no point holding in stock and they will be valid in saying so because you i you need to see your any scale be higher than your cost of equity or be at power your cost of expertise that you can have a conversation so
• 11:58
  maya isn't in play in my view when it comes to where the stock is trading at um i think beggar is the obvious by here cap has run i'm not sure why i guess it must be reason why cap is running i don't know but i guess it was the reason why i put my position in the cup and i guess in the coming weeks we should find out because all of a sudden it's just run hard just ran this week in fact let's go see what was the best performing stock this week uh i suspect that um cap probably is in top five spot
• 12:29
  Luckily, we have the weekly report by the NGX out already. I give kudos to the NGX for that. Most of the time, they get that weekly report ready on time. So what was... Cap was the best performing stock this week, 60.9% appreciation. So the question is, a stock like Cap, which is in the most liquid of stocks, a stock like Cap doesn't just literally overnight just run 60%. Why is it running 60%? I don't know, but...
• 12:57
  This is unusual. This is unusually high movement, unusually brisk movement in CAP. So neutral on CAP, neutral on, neutral slash sell on mayor paints, accumulates on beggar paints. That is the paint segment. Now let's go to first hold score. I didn't dwell too much in the video. For me, first hold score is quite simple, right? Stock is traded at about 0.8 times book value. So it's cheap.
• 13:27
  uh i wish at the bare minimum with the level of cleanup provisioning they did last year fy 2025 i see no reason why this stock shouldn't be at book value so it means that uh i ideally you should see this stock trading at maybe 77 which is just about book value or 18 i share but there's an engine's raise in the works um capital raise i beg your pardon there's capital raising work question is
• 13:57
  it's kind of a bit difficult to model out what year and return on equity would be for this company so i guess you'd have to wait uh to the first code code by the way spring company of um popular first bank in any case sometime tomorrow probably see if i can um do a video on the fugaz bank so there'll be fugaz fy2026 2025 fy25 for the fugaz and q1226 for the fugaz as well combo video
• 14:25
  watch out for that that video will be out sometime tomorrow which is sunday or maybe monday morning not decided yet but it will be out in the next two days so first hold cool um interest income up 21 20.1 percent year on year interest income after payments up so 398.4 billion interest income um non-interest income is about
• 14:55
  bit of 170 something um a billion naira so clearly clearly surely i mean clearly numbers are good right and if you analyze the result on equity i look at maybe 28 or 30 percent return on equity return on assets maybe four percent on assets which is good so this year is kind of i think you might see first holds good delivering some of the
• 15:24
  best numbers have done last few years the only challenge i have is provisions permit charges is still too high right q126 per meter at 40.6 billion q125 last year 37.2 i want to see these gold numbers go down because we have a firm that's done over 800 billion in provisions last year you're running at 40 points uh something 20.3 billionaire and q1 provisions
• 15:53
  Yes, you cannot annualize provisions, but if you're already doing 14Q1, even if you come down to 20, 20, 20 or 15, 15, 15, you're probably looking at $85 million in provisions for the year. It's still too high. So I'll be waiting for H1 numbers. Let's see how Q2 performs. Maybe one can then come back to reconsider. But very minimum, you might say, okay, well, this stock should trade at book value. That would put it at 7.2.
• 16:23
  question i'll ask myself though is you have a zenith bank that's just on that book value right or just about book value which will you buy so you have a hundred naira you buy isn't it uh that is uh trading at uh let's see if i can get my weekly numbers let's see what i mean let's let me know let me know in the comment section i went with this you have 100 naira right
• 16:51
  you have to buy a banking stock you have zenith at 126 so you unless assume that you can buy fractions if you or let's even make it simpler you have a thousand there um is any shares at 126 a gtco share is at 144 and then you have first hold score at 77 what would you buy now some people might say buy the cheapest so you can have volume
• 17:22
  yeah i get it but when you put the returns together the honest truth is first hold code does not hold a candle to zenith and gt code so in my view i just i mean i'd rather do a uba which is also below book value i mean when you think of it uba is trading just roughly around um let's see let's see what's the book value for uba um uba closed at 14 hour on friday so let's see what the book value uba should be just under half
• 17:52
  or slightly above half uh uh book value so in my view it's i i don't i don't think um i just i think that they're better comparing opportunities i mean if you put the two side by side ub is probably better by them than first whole school right what i'm seeing here is uba book value is 102.3 ub is at 49 share right so
• 18:22
  even if uba reprises from 40 to 60 in a year's time you're you're looking at what 50 upside if my math is correct the question is do you see 50 upside in facebook i don't see that happening and i don't see that happening so um yes q1 number is not too bad but allergic festivals compelling provisions need to go down yep provisions need to go down
• 18:52
  i thank you for listening in about 30 minutes time you take out the time to go watch the video you'll be able to learn more and you can always um see the numbers and then work out the context and understand where i come from thank you for listening ladies and gentlemen catch you in the next episode