Latest / Closing Market Report / Sep 29 | Closing Market Report
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- cmr260929 The September 29, 2026, broadcast of the Closing Market Report, hosted by Todd Gleason, provides a comprehensive update on commodity markets, agricultural policy, and weather. Market analyst Naomi Blohm discusses recent grain trading trends, upcoming USDA reports, and the market impact of lagging crop maturity and harvest delays. The program highlights several updates from Washington, D.C., including the rollout of a new digital acreage reporting system by the Farm Service Agency, the ongoing partisan stall of the new farm bill in the Senate, and legislative efforts to secure permanent year-round access to E15 fuel. Additionally, the broadcast features analysis on why increased foreign beef imports have failed to lower consumer prices amid a record-low domestic cattle herd. The episode concludes with meteorologist Don Day forecasting heavy, harvest-delaying rains across the western Corn Belt, followed by a transition to a cooler, drier weather pattern. 00:58 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing 07:05 WILLAg News Update 16:00 Lower-Cost Fuel at Stake in E15 Debate 19:01 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather --- Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 29th day of September 2026. I’m Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Naomi Blohm. She’s at totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin. We’ll head to Washington D.C., where there are a series of developments on Capitol Hill, at USDA, and in the White House she’ll want to be brought up to speed on. And then as we close out our time together, we’ll take a look at the weather forecast with Don Day at Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. And along the way, we’ll also hear about yesterday’s USDA NASS report, looking at the weekly crop progress and how harvest has been moving along across the Midwest on this Tuesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. Announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. 00:58 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing Todd Gleason: Naomi Blohm from totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin, now joins us to take a look at this marketplace on what appears to be mostly a turnaround Tuesday, particularly for the soybeans. Thank you, Naomi, for taking some time with me today. Naomi Blohm: Yeah, thanks for having me. Todd Gleason: Well, tell me about the Tuesday trade and what happened overnight and into the day trade. Naomi Blohm: Yeah, so just some mixed, quiet grain trade last night and today. The November soybeans today really tried a couple of times to get back over that $13 handle, getting as high as $13.04 today, but just not able to settle back above it. A finish today at $12.97 and three-quarters, up nine and a half, definitely a bit of a turnaround Tuesday, but now we have November beans with big resistance at $13. Looking over at corn, quiet day, about a nickel, six-cent trading range overall, finishing about a penny lower today, with wheat trading two-sided as well. Feels like the market has kind of shrugged off the news from China, especially that the tariffs did not get reduced for soybeans, but now we turn our focus to tomorrow’s quarterly stocks report and small grain summary. We’re also dealing with month-end and quarter-end for these markets as well. Todd Gleason: Let’s start with the small grains, that would be wheat in particular, are there expectations that you’re looking for? Naomi Blohm: Yeah, so what we’re looking for, the survey going into the report tomorrow, all wheat average production looking at about 1.528 billion bushels. So that’s the number there for production, and we’ll like to see the breakdown of all of the specific categories. I’m curious to see where oats end up on the small grain production side of things for tomorrow, so we’ll keep an eye on that as well. Oats ending stocks have been getting a little tighter here in the United States. But then the bigger piece of the puzzle is the quarterly grain stocks. Average estimate for tomorrow for the quarterly grain stocks on corn coming in at 1.9 billion bushels. Keep in mind that is up from last year’s number for this time of year of 1.55. Soybeans, the number they’re looking for is 321 million bushels, that’s the average estimate, pretty much in line with a year ago. And for wheat, the quarterly stocks number of 1.85 billion bushels, lower than last year at this time when we were looking at 2.1. So those quarterly stocks numbers will set kind of a cornerstone as we start into the fourth quarter because then that will represent as carry-in on the balance sheet. And then as we find out where all of the yields end up as harvest progresses, we can fill in all the remaining pieces of the puzzle to find out exactly where price potential could go as we head into the latter part of 2026. Todd Gleason: Naomi, what are producers talking to you about as it’s related to the size of their corn and soybean crops? Naomi Blohm: It is a very mixed crop this year overall, very extremely mixed from one side of a county to the next side of the county. So it’s really hard to get a handle on what is out there or what isn’t out there, especially with harvest. You know, when you compare harvest to a five-year average, it’s on track, but it’s also a slow harvest because of the rainfall that has happened here. So probably another couple of weeks we’ll get a better handle on things, but I think it’s definite to say it’s definitely not better than last year’s crop. It’s just a question of where things will end up when all is said and done, and what will the USDA print on the October WASDE report which will be on the 9th of October, and then how that compares as the year goes on. Todd Gleason: We did get a feel from yesterday’s Crop Progress Report why soybeans were so high priced in parts of Iowa and the western corn states, Iowa that is. Maturity there is running 14 points behind. Eventually, it will catch up, I suppose. They’ll have plenty of beans in the pipeline at some point. What might impact that have on either basis, which I’m sure it will, and or more importantly for the rest of the nation, futures? Naomi Blohm: Yeah, so I think it’s gonna just be a local cash issue and a local basis issue for places where harvest is lagging. So I don’t know that it’s going to play into an actual overall pinpoint on the futures market because we all feel that that crop is out there, it’s just slow to bring it in. So again, it’ll probably just be a local cash market thing that’ll have basis fluctuations. Todd Gleason: And finally, because we are in the middle of the basis dip for the fall harvest, what are you thinking might happen after we get to the beginning of November to maybe mid-November at this time? Naomi Blohm: Yeah, so we’re at that point, you’re right, where basis traditionally would start to widen out a little bit, but I kind of think that this year, just because the supply and demand situation has shifted so much from bearish to more supportive because of the drought in Europe this summer and our flash drought here, that once farmers are done harvesting, they are going to lock the bin doors tight. So come November or mid-November once farmers are wrapping up harvest, that’s when maybe we’ll start to see basis levels improve as end users are eager to make sure that they’re getting enough supplies in for end of year and to cover part of their first quarter needs for 2027. It will be interesting to keep an eye on that as well, as how different parts of the country deal with what could potentially be a more bullish market in 2027 because of lower supplies of grain being produced and how farmers want to balance paying bills versus storing that corn and waiting and hoping for better prices in 2027. Todd Gleason: Thank you very much, Naomi. Naomi Blohm: Thank you. Todd Gleason: Naomi Blohm is with totalfarmmarketing.com. She is in West Bend, Wisconsin. You may hear her again if you’d like on our website, the address there is willag.org. 07:05 WILLAg News Update Todd Gleason: Yesterday afternoon, the United States Department of Agriculture released the weekly Crop Progress Report. It shows across the 18 major producing states that 72% of the corn crop has matured, that’s slightly ahead of the five-year average of 71%. Harvest has reached 18%, and that’s on the five-year average for corn. Soybean progress mirrors that timeline, three-quarters of the national crop is dropping leaves right at the five-year benchmark. The soybean harvest reached 17% complete, matching the five-year average. In Iowa, though, there has been a stoppage of sorts. Iowa recorded just 1.1 days suitable for fieldwork last week. While Iowa corn remains largely healthy at 75% good to excellent, maturity there sits four points behind average at 72%. And even more pronounced, Iowa soybeans dropping leaves reached just 62%. That’s a full 14 points behind the state’s five-year average. In Illinois, things are running moderately ahead on corn maturity at 83% versus 77% average. The soybean leaf drop matched its five-year average at 79%. And that’s a quick look at yesterday’s weekly Crop Progress Report from the United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service. Todd Gleason: The theme music for the Closing Market Report is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason. Todd Gleason: A series of agricultural news stories in depth for the day. The Farm Service Agency is where it will begin, which has completed a major upgrade to acreage reporting, moving producers nationwide onto a new system designed to improve efficiency and reduce paperwork. FSA Deputy Administrator of Farm Programs Jared Hagert says the transition is already showing promising results. He says the new acreage reporting platform was thoroughly tested before launching nationwide. Jared Hagert: We had a great, great opportunity here the first part of this year to get it was about 89 counties, so two whole states, North Dakota and Maryland, along with some other test counties, to really take a good hard look at our new geospatially based acreage reporting. For the first time ever, we’ve got a geospatial reference map that ties all of this, all of the land to those reference points. So as we went through and developed the system, ran it through testing, it was extensive. Somewhere close to 25 million acres were reported in the system, and that ran from about the first part of April until when we cut over completely for the whole United States. So we’re all on the same system now. Todd Gleason: The new system is expected to offer more digital options for producers. Hagert says that starts with creating a login.gov account. Jared Hagert: We will be able to take an acreage report from a producer that logs in on their laptop to login.gov, you know, that’s key. If you don’t have login.gov or signed up for it, take when you get a chance, you’re having a cup of coffee in the morning, take and sign up for it because it’s the key to USDA programs in the future. Todd Gleason: Hagert says the new reporting system is already saving time for both producers and county office staff. Jared Hagert: Acreage reporting is our number one lift that we have as an agency. Within the Farm Service Agency, that’s the paramount time that’s where we spend the time with our staff. Just in the pilot program, we’re looking at 20% time savings, you know, in reporting acres in the new system, and I have to say that’s going to be our worst number. Todd Gleason: Even as USDA modernizes its reporting tools, Hagert says producers can still work with FSA in the ways they’re most comfortable. Jared Hagert: I heard the Undersecretary, Mr. Richard Fordyce, talk about USDA is going to meet producers where they’re at. And that whether you’re large, small, beginning, veteran, we’re going to meet you where you’re at. And that goes as far as acreage reporting too. I mean, yeah, we are modernizing it, but that doesn’t mean that you can’t report acres the same way you always have. So, you know, that option is always there. Todd Gleason: And as he looks ahead to the future, he says the agency’s focus remains on serving farmers and ranchers. Jared Hagert is a fourth-generation North Dakota farmer who joined USDA earlier this year as Deputy Administrator for Farm Programs. Todd Gleason: Well, let’s stay in Washington D.C., but we’ll move from USDA to the Capitol building. It’s the last week the Senate is in session before the elections, and there still are no plans to take up the Ag Committee passed farm bill. Three years late, and still no new farm bill with the third extension of the old one about to run out this week. That’s frustrated Senate Majority Leader and Ag Committee member John Thune. John Thune: There were 100 Democrat amendments in the farm bill that they block voted against. That is inexcusable in farm country. Todd Gleason: Still, top Ag Committee Democrat Amy Klobuchar insisted at the farm bill markup that Democrats do not oppose the farm bill, but only after a SNAP funding fight is worked out and after the midterms. Amy Klobuchar: There’s a lot we agree on this bill and that we really can’t afford to not get this done by the end of the year. Todd Gleason: But Thune claims it’s all about the elections. John Thune: I have never seen a time in my time in public life where you had this kind of a partisan and, frankly, on a bill that the Democrats were involved in negotiating. Todd Gleason: Republicans, for their part, lacked the 60 votes needed procedurally to take up the farm bill on the Senate floor. Farm groups urge Congress to pass a five-year bill rather than another extension, but even that seems unlikely now with even more politically sensitive topics expected to consume remaining floor time, and as Democrats are betting they can retake one or both houses. 16:00 Lower-Cost Fuel at Stake in E15 Debate Todd Gleason: Now up next, let’s turn our attention to E15, the effort to secure permanent nationwide access to that product continues on Capitol Hill. Renewable Fuels Association President and CEO Geoff Cooper says supporters have made important progress, but hurdles still remain before year-round E15 becomes law. Geoff Cooper: We obviously took a big step forward back in May when the House passed stand-alone legislation that would finally allow year-round sales of E15 nationwide. That’s the first time in my 20 years of dealing with these issues that the House has passed stand-alone ethanol legislation. So we were very pleased to see that get through in a bipartisan fashion. Our crusade took another step forward, a maybe smaller step forward last week when the Senate Ag Committee did report a farm bill out of committee. That farm bill does include permanent nationwide year-round E15 as well. But looking forward, it certainly doesn’t get any easier from this point. Todd Gleason: Cooper says permanent year-round access to E15 would benefit both consumers and agriculture. Geoff Cooper: When you look at what’s going on with gas prices, I think we all know E15 is selling for 20, 30, sometimes 40 cents a gallon less than regular gasoline. So giving consumers permanent access to that lower-cost fuel would be very welcome right now as folks are facing high gas prices. And of course, it would be welcomed by the agricultural community because it would open a new market for corn and sorghum at a time when our farmers are really looking for new sources of demand and a boost to their bottom line. Todd Gleason: While emergency waivers have allowed E15 sales during the summer months, Cooper says they don’t provide the certainty retailers need to expand availability. Geoff Cooper: What those emergency waivers don’t do is provide the certainty and the long-term stability that other retailers are looking for before they decide to make an investment in E15. We talk to retail gas station owners and chains every day, and they’ve told us, look, we want to sell E15, but we need certainty, and we need to know that that product will be available to our customers 365 days a year. We’re not going to have to pull it down every year on June 1st, relabel the pumps, turn the tanks over. Just the burden on a small business of doing that is just not a risk that many retailers are willing to take. So there is a huge difference between what the emergency waivers provide and what a permanent, durable legislative solution would provide. Todd Gleason: Again, that was Renewable Fuels Association President and CEO Geoff Cooper providing an update on their efforts to get year-round E15 across the finish line. Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention now to the White House plan to import more beef, does not appear to be lowering prices a great deal. Chad Smith from the National Association of Farm Broadcasting has the details. Announce: New analysis is signaling that the Trump administration’s plan to lower the tariffs on imported beef has not met the intended goal of lowering prices for consumers. Faith Parum, an economist for the American Farm Bureau Federation, said her organization studied beef prices at 41 grocery stores in September to measure the impact. Faith Parum: To see how the price of 80/20 ground beef would change, and we found since September 2nd to September 24th, prices only decreased about 2%. With some stores really not changing their price at all. So even though we’re importing more beef than ever, we’re still not seeing consumers’ price go down. Announce: Parum says the higher prices can be attributed to a shrinking US cattle herd. Faith Parum: You know, in the United States, we have a record low cattle herd size. That’s really reducing the supply of beef in the United States. On top of that, we have limited imports from Mexico due to New World screwworm, and all of that is causing that supply to shrink. Anytime supply goes down as we keep having this high demand for beef, that’s going to push those prices up. So it’s going to take a long-term fix. Announce: Parum said importing foreign beef is only a short-term fix for what is actually a years-long problem. Faith Parum: When we think about how do we long term bring prices down for consumers, rebuilding that cattle herd size is number one. Policies like suspending the tariff rate quota actually incentivize farmers and ranchers to sell part of their herd because they are seeing that market volatility, and they’re not getting those signals to rebuild that herd. Announce: You can learn more on the Farm Bureau Intel page at fb.org. Chad Smith, Washington. Todd Gleason: And I’m Todd Gleason, you’re listening to the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. On this Tuesday afternoon, do visit our website, the address there is willag.org. That’s w-i-l-l-a-g.org. There you’ll find our daily programming to listen to anytime you’d like, and can also search it out if you prefer in your favorite podcast applications by name. Look for the Closing Market Report and Commodity Week, the Opening Market Report as well. 19:01 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather Todd Gleason: Now up next, let’s turn our attention to the weather forecast. Don Day is here. He is with Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Don, I’d like to talk about the western corn belt in particular, Iowa, as they only had 1.1 field days that they could work last week according to USDA NASS from yesterday’s Crop Progress Report. The good news there is that maturity of the crop for both corn and soybeans lags behind, they sure would like to get some of that crop out and into the bin or to the elevator. What are their chances the rest of this week? Don Day: Slim to none. Uh, in fact, not only is there a chance of rain, but I’d say about 60% of Iowa is under a flood watch. We’re going to see a very expansive area of heavy rainfall that’s going to go from the southern Rockies and the desert southwest, arching northeastward across Kansas, eastern Colorado, central and eastern Nebraska, then curving around into Iowa. Then that heavy rainfall is going to be getting into northern Illinois, and you might be going, well, what’s going on, it just keeps continuing. Well, it’s all been due to this Pacific connection to the very active subtropics off the west coast of Mexico. We’ve had hurricanes, we’ve had tropical storms, we’ve had the right wind patterns to transport that high humidity air in. Not only are we getting that, but we’re getting the remains of what was Hurricane Polo that is streaking its way across northwest Mexico, and it’s going to, the remains, get ejected northeastward and go to those areas I just mentioned before curving around to the east as we go into later this week, and we’re going to see two, three, four inches of rain in some of those areas I just mentioned. Todd Gleason: Just for clarification’s sake, Hurricane Polo, which is different than Hurricane Nolo. Don Day: That’s right. Just to make things confusing, they’ve got a Nolo and a Polo, and the one before that was Odile, but don’t ask me to pronounce any of these other ones. Todd Gleason: Once that gets past us, what do you see? Don Day: The pattern is going to change. What will happen is a realignment, kind of a reset, it’s the control-alt-delete of, to give you a computer analogy. We’ll see a pattern where it’s less about the Pacific and we’ll start to see nothing really cold, but we’re going to see a series of Canadian cold fronts start to move along the US-Canadian border. We’re going to see that this weekend into next week. That introduces drier, more stable air into the region, and what that will do is it’ll turn off the valve, the spigot of water from the south and west for a while. Todd Gleason: And finally, look at Illinois and Indiana specifically. What do you see for those two states over the next 7 to 10 days? Don Day: The northern counties are going to get wet, especially the central and northern parts of Illinois will join into some of those heavy rains, right. I was talking two, three inches of rain in some of those areas. Far northern Indiana the same. Now you go into the central and southern counties, you’re going to still see rain, but amounts are going to be much less. Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much, I appreciate it. Don Day: Thank you. Todd Gleason: You’re welcome. That’s Don Day, he is with Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Joined us on this Tuesday edition of the Closing Market Report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. And note that if you are traveling on the back roads and two-lane highways of rural America, beyond the lookout for those harvesting machines, as well as the wagons and tractors and semis that are moving the grain to and fro, sometimes they are moving very slowly. The biggest of those machines that move the slowest will have, or should have, a triangle that’s reflective on the back of it. If you see it, slow down now, don’t wait, because if you do, you may find yourself in the back end of that vehicle. Be safe, I’m University of Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason.