Latest / Racers Odds / Why Shane Van Gisbergen Will Make A Deep Run In The NASCAR In-Season Challenge
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_02: Alright, welcome to Racers Odds.
- 0:02SPEAKER_02: David Styles is out on a uh much deserved vacation.
- 0:05SPEAKER_02: So we've brought back Kevin Redfern.
- 0:08SPEAKER_02: Kevin, we're looking to find the value again as we head to Sonoma.
- 0:11SPEAKER_02: But how are you doing, man?
- 0:12SPEAKER_01: Good, good.
- 0:13SPEAKER_01: It's gonna be hard to find this week on a road course.
- 0:16SPEAKER_01: We've done our homework and we we're gonna get back to the drawing board and uh and and find some value.
- 0:22SPEAKER_01: And honestly, it's probably a good thing for betters that SVG didn't win last week because now like we've like brought the price back a little bit closer to Earth uh after um some crazy lines last week.
- 0:34SPEAKER_01: But good to be back.
- 0:35SPEAKER_01: Thank you for having me.
- 0:36SPEAKER_02: Yeah, absolutely.
- 0:37SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I think uh I was quite surprised to not see SVG in victory lane.
- 0:42SPEAKER_02: I uh put 50 of our Monopia dollars on this show last week on him to win, and so um that hurts.
- 0:50SPEAKER_02: But I I want to know who's got your eye for Sonoma as we head to California this weekend.
- 0:56SPEAKER_02: I've been doing my notes, I'll be on pit road, and uh I think outside of the obvious ones in SVG and Connor Zilich, there are some big players who maybe don't get the recognition that they deserve uh just because they're overshadowed by these road course ringers.
- 1:12SPEAKER_02: But before I I uh share who I'm looking at, who are you looking at this weekend?
- 1:18SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so if we think a couple weeks back, uh when I was on the show, we were talking about Watkins Glenn, um, I kind of went through a process of cross-referencing um road course speed over this past year, um, speed from drivers at that particular track, and then also just with the odds and seeing where the value is um in all three of those dimensions.
- 1:40SPEAKER_01: And I went back and I did that again this week.
- 1:43SPEAKER_01: Um, and I gotta say, the books have tightened things up quite a bit since then, particularly from a top 10 standpoint.
- 1:49SPEAKER_01: Still, there's a couple of guys to look at.
- 1:52SPEAKER_01: Um both A.J.
- 1:53SPEAKER_01: Almondinger and Chris Busher on DraftKings are minus 105, so that's about as close to even as you can get from two guys who have just been fantastic on road courses.
- 2:04SPEAKER_01: I think A.J.
- 2:05SPEAKER_01: Almendinger's one of maybe one or two guys who finished in the top 10 um on all three road courses this year.
- 2:11SPEAKER_01: He has Chris hasn't hit that mark.
- 2:13SPEAKER_01: Yeah, Chris Busher hasn't hit that mark, but he was lightning fast at uh Naval Base Coronado and has been one of the top four road racers the last couple years.
- 2:24SPEAKER_01: So I think that that's primarily where where I'm looking at value.
- 2:27SPEAKER_01: In terms of betting strategy, um, this is exclusive to DraftKings and in their uh uh how they let you use the app, but what where I'm gonna be at this week is SVG plus one of those.
- 2:39SPEAKER_01: So SVG and an Almonding are top 10 parlayed together.
- 2:42SPEAKER_01: SVG and a Chris Bush are top 10 parlayed together.
- 2:46SPEAKER_01: Maybe get a little crazy and throw in a Tyler Reddick plus or top five, which is like plus 115, I think it's pretty decent.
- 2:53SPEAKER_01: Um, but that'll anchor me.
- 2:55SPEAKER_01: And then um without rambling too much, Andrew, I just want to say that uh if Naval Base Coronado taught us anything this last week, it's that to have a little bit stashed away for live betting on FanDuel because once the the big one per se came across in stage two, um there was a lot of money to be made um with in stage two with Larson and Cory Haim kind of packaged together on the same strategy.
- 3:23SPEAKER_01: Corey Haim was 30 to 1 last week and ended up winning.
- 3:26SPEAKER_01: Tyler Reddick when he restarted second row on uh the one of the final restarts uh was 10 to 1.
- 3:34SPEAKER_01: So keep a lookout for those things if SVG wrecks.
- 3:37SPEAKER_01: Um it's nice to have a little ammunition there for Jan FanDuel um just in case it goes a little sideways.
- 3:43SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I agree with you on a lot of those names that you mentioned.
- 3:47SPEAKER_02: AJ Almendinger, I really like for him in a at a top 10.
- 3:51SPEAKER_02: Michael McDowell, same thing.
- 3:53SPEAKER_02: Um and one guy, man, I was honestly blown away when I was looking at his stats.
- 3:59SPEAKER_02: He has never won at Sonoma, but you have to go back all the way to 2019 to find the last time that Chase Elliott finished outside of the top 10 in Sonoma.
- 4:09SPEAKER_02: He is, I'm looking here.
- 4:11SPEAKER_02: Uh, you gotta scroll a ways down, plus 165 to top 10.
- 4:16SPEAKER_02: I think that is that is an instant one for me, uh, just because he's he has had some great runs.
- 4:23SPEAKER_02: Second is his best finish in 2021.
- 4:26SPEAKER_02: That's something I like.
- 4:27SPEAKER_02: You're talking about the live betting.
- 4:29SPEAKER_02: I feel like Austin Hill will be someone to keep an eye on.
- 4:32SPEAKER_02: He's the type of guy who has prided himself on his road course abilities, but has been overshadowed by SVG and Connor Zilich in the O'Reilly Auto Park series.
- 4:42SPEAKER_02: Obviously, he was involved in that big one at San Diego, and um that's what took him out of it.
- 4:48SPEAKER_02: But I feel like he would have been a player.
- 4:51SPEAKER_02: He, you got to scroll even further down, plus 400 for Austin Hill, the top 10.
- 4:56SPEAKER_02: That's kind of like where I'm liking that spot, is the top tens and um in that area right there.
- 5:03SPEAKER_02: But um, those are the two guys that I feel like are worth hitting on um that you haven't touched on yet.
- 5:12SPEAKER_02: Zane Smith also with a fourth best at San Diego.
- 5:16SPEAKER_02: He's on a hot streak, three top tens in the last five races.
- 5:20SPEAKER_02: Um, you know, he's not necessarily known for his road course abilities.
- 5:25SPEAKER_02: San Diego was his only top 10, I feel like, uh, in his last 10 road course races, but I like the direction that him and Front Row Motorsports are going.
- 5:34SPEAKER_02: Maybe they can strategy their way into a top 10.
- 5:37SPEAKER_02: Um that's kind of who I've been looking at, uh, at least in Cup.
- 5:43SPEAKER_02: There's a few guys I want to showcase to in the O'Reilly Auto Parts series.
- 5:46SPEAKER_02: I don't know if you've looked at that as well, but um I'm liking the JGR Toyotas if we're gonna bet away from the favorites.
- 5:53SPEAKER_02: William Suwalic finished third last year and was very clearly the third best car in the O'Reilly Auto Parts series race.
- 6:01SPEAKER_02: Last year, Brent Cruz, also um a road course driver, road course ringer, didn't get the San Diego result that he was looking for, but he's led laps in all three road course races in the O'Reilly Auto Parts this season.
- 6:17SPEAKER_02: Um, and I can't get my odds to load for me right now, but um, you know, if if they're favorable and that might be something to uh to look into for them as well.
- 6:28SPEAKER_01: Yeah, absolutely.
- 6:29SPEAKER_01: Timing up the O'Reilly series is tough because those markets just aren't open for that long.
- 6:33SPEAKER_01: Uh I love those picks.
- 6:34SPEAKER_01: I'm I'm break I'm waiting for the day when Austin Green breaks through.
- 6:38SPEAKER_01: I think he had some good speed.
- 6:43SPEAKER_02: Parker Retzlav.
- 6:44SPEAKER_01: Parker Retzlav looked fantastic last week.
- 6:46SPEAKER_01: He just can't seem to get it done on strategy on pit road.
- 6:50SPEAKER_01: I can go on and on and on about that.
- 6:52SPEAKER_02: Also, uh this surprised me too.
- 6:55SPEAKER_02: And I'm trying to pull up my O'Reilly auto parts series notes.
- 7:00SPEAKER_02: But would you have guessed that this is Justin Algayer's best track on paper statistically?
- 7:07SPEAKER_02: 6.3 average finish at Sonoma.
- 7:10SPEAKER_02: That's his best among any of the active tracks that are uh out there right now.
- 7:16SPEAKER_02: Again, I don't think he will be able to win.
- 7:19SPEAKER_02: He hasn't won a road course since 2018.
- 7:22SPEAKER_02: But when those lines open up, a Justin Olgayer top 10 might also be something worth looking into.
- 7:28SPEAKER_01: Yeah, super cool.
- 7:29SPEAKER_01: I love where your head's at on the Chase Elliott one, too.
- 7:31SPEAKER_01: That meets a lot of the criteria I'm looking for in a top 10 bet.
- 7:34SPEAKER_01: It's just that his road course speed this year in particular hasn't been great, which is kind of outside of his um identity a little bit.
- 7:42SPEAKER_01: It's it's been a strength in the past, but it seems like those manifested themselves more pre-next gen era um and pre-SVG as well.
- 7:51SPEAKER_02: Um, so before we get to David and I both broke down our brackets, and we're gonna explain those um coming up here on Racers Odds in a minute.
- 8:01SPEAKER_02: But Kevin, I do want to get your input on your bracket challenge and uh your your thoughts on that as we start kicking that off this weekend in Sonoma.
- 8:10SPEAKER_01: Yeah, no big words of advice, strategies, or anything.
- 8:13SPEAKER_01: Like if you look back at the in-season tournament or chat in-season challenge last year, like just the first race provided upset score.
- 8:22SPEAKER_01: We had what Ty Dillon versus Ty Gibbs in the championship, correct?
- 8:25SPEAKER_02: Yes, Ty Gibbs won it.
- 8:27SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so I mean, would Ty Dillon, who I mean, I don't think I offend Ty Dillon when I say that he's not like running up front every week, is essentially a blown tire away from winning that prize.
- 8:41SPEAKER_01: You gotta look at the guys down the board, pick one or two of them, and just say whatever.
- 8:46SPEAKER_01: Um, to me, that guy's Daniel Suarez.
- 8:48SPEAKER_01: Uh if if you look at the bracket, guys who are running well, guys who have run well at in-season challenge tracks, Daniel Suarez at 40 to 1 seems about as competitive of a pick you can get with an immense payout.
- 9:04SPEAKER_01: So Daniel Suarez is gonna be the guy I'm riding with for the uh the in-season tournament, and um I yeah, I recommend finding one of those guys and just you know having fun with it.
- 9:14SPEAKER_02: Kev, I like where your head's at.
- 9:15SPEAKER_02: He's one of two of the racetracks that we go to, and the first two, a quarterfinals run for Daniel Suarez is definitely something in the cards.
- 9:24SPEAKER_02: Anyways, let's get to what me and David had to say about this bracket challenge.
- 9:30SPEAKER_00: I know um we've both filled one out.
- 9:32SPEAKER_00: I'm interested to see who Andrew has as his bracket champion.
- 9:38SPEAKER_00: And if you want to play along with us, we'll start a little league and you can join in.
- 9:42SPEAKER_00: We'll put that information down in the description and we'll share that with all of you that watch the podcast and listen to it here on uh YouTube and on Spotify and on Apple podcasts.
- 9:52SPEAKER_00: So uh play along with us, we'll have some fun and we'll see who can uh get close to winning that million dollars.
- 9:56SPEAKER_02: David, let's let's just do rapid fire round one matchups.
- 10:00SPEAKER_02: I'm gonna hit you with all my drivers that make it to round two to go to Chicagoland.
- 10:05SPEAKER_02: So uh Redick beats Bowman, Keslowski beats Sendrick, Suarez beats Gillaland, Smith beats Hosevar, Briscoe beats Almondanger.
- 10:16SPEAKER_02: That's kind of a up in the air one when it comes to Sonoma, but Briscoe has had some really dang good runs at Sonoma.
- 10:23SPEAKER_02: Uh Ty Gibbs beats Austin Dillon, Michael McDowell beats Bubba Wallace, poor Bubba Wallace is faced up against one of the best roadcourse racers at the road course race, which is the first round.
- 10:35SPEAKER_02: Um Chase Elliott beats Noah Grankson, uh Denny Hamlin, or no, Denny Hamlin loses to Ty Dillon, Eric Jones beats Joey Logano, Busher beats Nimachek, Chastain beats Bell, Byron beats Stenhouse, Larson beats Herbst, SVG beats poor Ryan Priest, and Ryan Blaney beats Josh Barry.
- 10:57SPEAKER_02: That's my round number one.
- 10:59SPEAKER_00: Well, we don't differ that much, but uh I have Bowman over Reddick, and then I'm taking Cendrick over Keslowski, and then I also have Suarez over Gilliland, Zane Smith over Carson Hosevar.
- 11:12SPEAKER_00: I'm taking Almondinger over Briscoe, Ty Gibbs over Austin Dillon, and you're right, poor Bubba Wallace, he gets matched up with Michael McDowell, which is it's just not fair.
- 11:22SPEAKER_00: Michael McDowell and then Chase Elliott on the uh left side of the bracket, right side of the bracket, I'm gonna run with Denny Hamlin.
- 11:28SPEAKER_00: I think he'll finish better than Ty Dillon.
- 11:30SPEAKER_00: Um I know that Denny's not good at the road courses, but I think he can he can finish better than Ty Dillon.
- 11:37SPEAKER_00: I also have Eric Jones over Logano, Busher over John Hunter Niemichek, Bell over Chastain, Byron over Stenhouse Jr., Larson defeats Riley Herbst, Shane Van Gisbergen, that's a that's a lock over poor Ryan Priest, and then Blaney over Barry.
- 11:54SPEAKER_00: So we don't vary that much in our first round, other than I I'm picking Bowman over Redick.
- 12:00SPEAKER_02: So that that's bold.
- 12:02SPEAKER_02: Bowman finished 19th last year at Sonoma versus Reddick finished sixth.
- 12:07SPEAKER_02: Where does where does that pick come from?
- 12:10SPEAKER_00: I just I don't know.
- 12:11SPEAKER_00: I just have a I just have a feeling about it.
- 12:13SPEAKER_00: And and I I think Redick is gonna try to do all he can to get the most points that he can and he may run into trouble and and you know Shane Van Gisbergen is still out there, so it could be a situation where he gets mixed up in something.
- 12:26SPEAKER_00: Um I think Bowman just needs needs some points and and they need something to go right this season.
- 12:32SPEAKER_00: So maybe just winning in the bracket challenge in the first round could be could be a a a feather in their hat, so to say.
- 12:40SPEAKER_00: But um yeah, David.
- 12:44SPEAKER_00: That's just what I'm feeling.
- 12:45SPEAKER_00: Just intuition.
- 12:46SPEAKER_00: I mean it's a bracket.
- 12:47SPEAKER_00: Who's to say anything is gonna go right?
- 12:50SPEAKER_00: And and we're picking so far out in advance.
- 12:52SPEAKER_00: I mean, we don't you don't really know, but that's the that's the point of doing this.
- 12:55SPEAKER_00: It's kind of like the March Madness of NASCAR.
- 12:58SPEAKER_02: Why don't you give me your final four and tell me how you got there?
- 13:02SPEAKER_00: Okay, so my final four, Suarez and Elliot and Bell and Blaney.
- 13:07SPEAKER_02: We have one driver that is the same.
- 13:11SPEAKER_02: We both have Chase Elliott.
- 13:12SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 13:14SPEAKER_00: So you have so who do you have Redick beating out Suarez, and then it'll be Redick and Elliot, and then I I'm I'm guessing you have Busher.
- 13:24SPEAKER_00: No?
- 13:25SPEAKER_02: I have I have Zane Smith beating both Suarez and Reddick to make it to the now that hey you're you're giving me graph over because I've got Zayn Smith over Daniel Suarez at Chicago round two.
- 13:41SPEAKER_02: Zane Smith has been freaking good at the mile and a half as of late.
- 13:45SPEAKER_02: Then you go to Echo Park Speedway, where he has also put together really great runs.
- 13:50SPEAKER_02: I think you just bank on chaos happening, and Zayn Smith will be the defending winner of Tyler Reddick to make it to the uh round of four at North Wilkesboro.
- 14:00SPEAKER_02: He loses to Chase Elliott, though.
- 14:02SPEAKER_02: All right, but let's go to the other side of the bracket.
- 14:05SPEAKER_02: Because I've got I've got two other interesting drivers on my other side of the bracket.
- 14:10SPEAKER_00: Okay, so I I can't even guess who it because that that blew me away right there.
- 14:15SPEAKER_00: Just the Zayn Smith side of the bra bracket coming out of that.
- 14:18SPEAKER_00: I I don't even know who your other two drivers will be.
- 14:20SPEAKER_02: All right, my other drivers, Eric Jones, who uh beat Logano in the first round, he beats Ty Dillon at Chicagoland, he beats Chris Busher at Echo Park Speedway to make it to North Wilkesboro.
- 14:34SPEAKER_02: Um and I actually have him beating this other driver, I have Shane Van Gisbergen going to the final four.
- 14:42SPEAKER_02: I VG, I have him beating at Chicagoland.
- 14:46SPEAKER_02: If he can he can run in the top ten and finish in the top ten at mile and a halves, I think if he can get a good qualifying day and good starting spot, there is a path for SVG to beat Ryan Blaney at Chicagoland.
- 14:59SPEAKER_02: Then you go to Echo Park Speedway.
- 15:02SPEAKER_02: I have Larson versus SVG.
- 15:04SPEAKER_02: SVG finished sixth at Echo Park Speedway earlier this year versus Larson.
- 15:09SPEAKER_02: He wrecked out.
- 15:09SPEAKER_02: It's kind of notoriously known that he doesn't race well on the super speedway types of tracks.
- 15:16SPEAKER_02: I have him beating Kyle Larson at Echo Park Speedway, and that's how I have him getting to the championship for.
- 15:22SPEAKER_02: Jones beats out SVG, so I have Chase Elliott, Eric Jones, my final at Indianapolis.
- 15:27SPEAKER_00: Oh man.
- 15:28SPEAKER_02: And Chase Elliott taking home the$1 million.
- 15:32SPEAKER_00: That's wild.
- 15:34SPEAKER_00: I could but see that I could see that happening.
- 15:36SPEAKER_00: Like I can I can see it in my mind's eye.
- 15:38SPEAKER_00: Like especially he wins he wins Sonoma because if he does well at at Naval Base Coronado, he'll be good in the metric.
- 15:47SPEAKER_00: He's good at Sonoma.
- 15:48SPEAKER_00: So he, you know, he's already ended round two.
- 15:51SPEAKER_02: But a lot has to happen for all of these guys.
- 15:53SPEAKER_02: But my two really my three bold picks are Zayn Smith, Eric Jones, SVG.
- 15:59SPEAKER_02: Uh all making deep runs in this thing.
- 16:02SPEAKER_00: I mean, I I feel like Bowman over Reddick is a big is a big push, but then when you get to Echo Park, like Suarez is just so good at these, you know, super speedway races.
- 16:13SPEAKER_00: And so I think Daniel ends up beating Alex Bowman, and that's how he gets to the final four.
- 16:18SPEAKER_00: And Chase Elliott's just super consistent everywhere we go.
- 16:21SPEAKER_00: He'll he'll be matched up with Ty Gibbs at Echo Park in that you know round three about.
- 16:27SPEAKER_00: But um that's the hometown boy for Echo Park.
- 16:31SPEAKER_00: And so uh I I think I think Elliott comes out of that.
- 16:33SPEAKER_00: That's how I got on that side.
- 16:35SPEAKER_00: My thinking on the other side is you know, Van Gisbergen at Chicagoland, I think Blaney's just super consistent, but I could see something happening in Blaney falling back, and like what you said happens and Shane Van Gisbergen beats him.
- 16:48SPEAKER_00: But I have Blaney going all the way to the um to the final four as he beats Larson out at Echo Park because he runs super well at the super speedway style tracks.
- 16:57SPEAKER_00: And then um Bell's kind of a toss-up.
- 17:00SPEAKER_00: I know he's got the left wrist problem.
- 17:02SPEAKER_00: I have him do getting out of Sonoma.
- 17:04SPEAKER_00: If he can get out of there again ch against Chastain, I think he the Toyotas are just so strong that he can defeat Chris Busher, and then it'll be a matchup between him and Denny Hamlin at at Echo Park.
- 17:16SPEAKER_00: And he's he's won at that racetrack before.
- 17:19SPEAKER_00: I know Denny's a good super speedway racer, but um we've got to think that something is gonna go Christopher Bell's way at some point this season.
- 17:26SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
- 17:27SPEAKER_00: And so um that's how that's how I have him going to North Wilkesboro matched up against Blaney.
- 17:32SPEAKER_00: So then my final two.
- 17:33SPEAKER_02: I could totally see that path.
- 17:34SPEAKER_02: Like that, that to me also makes a ton of sense.
- 17:38SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 17:39SPEAKER_00: So then, you know, my final two, I have Elliott over Suarez because I think he'll run better at North Wilkesboro.
- 17:45SPEAKER_00: Wow, we've got to be able to do that.
- 17:47SPEAKER_00: Oh no, we don't.
- 17:48SPEAKER_00: Bell over no, we don't have the same winner.
- 17:50SPEAKER_00: Then Bell over Blaney at uh North Wilkesboro.
- 17:53SPEAKER_00: So it'll be Chase Elliott versus Christopher Bell, and I'll put I'll put it on Seabell because he's in the Toyota at Indy.
- 18:02SPEAKER_00: So that's how he gets there.
- 18:04SPEAKER_00: That that's my bracket.
- 18:06SPEAKER_00: I I don't know how much of that will be correct at the end of this, but uh that's I've done this like three times now, and I keep coming up with this result.
- 18:14SPEAKER_00: So it it it that's just what I feel.
- 18:17SPEAKER_02: Wow.
- 18:18SPEAKER_02: All right.
- 18:19SPEAKER_02: Well, we're gonna have to see how this all ends up checking out because that's very interesting.
- 18:25SPEAKER_02: So that's what David and I had to say about our brackets.
- 18:28SPEAKER_02: Uh, Kev, you obviously you saw that segment as well.
- 18:32SPEAKER_02: Um, I've got Zane Smith, Eric Jones, Chase Elliott, SVG, my championship four, and I'm ready to ride with them.
- 18:40SPEAKER_02: Now, for transparency's sake, we did record that last week.
- 18:43SPEAKER_02: That was before Bubba ran second at San Diego.
- 18:47SPEAKER_02: I'm still gonna pick McDowell over Bubba, um, but that was definitely something I had to think about.
- 18:52SPEAKER_02: But um those are gonna be the guys that I'm rooting for.
- 18:56SPEAKER_02: I feel really solid about just like you, the reasons you had for Suarez.
- 19:01SPEAKER_02: Um I'm I think Eric Jones, this is the time to ride, ride with him.
- 19:06SPEAKER_01: So yeah, just a fun story to follow all year long.
- 19:09SPEAKER_01: I think pretty much a a strong majority of people who watch this sport are are pulling for Eric Jones this year as he continues to have a great season.
- 19:17SPEAKER_02: Absolutely.
- 19:18SPEAKER_02: Well, Kev, thanks for taking some time and joining the show.
- 19:22SPEAKER_02: We're gonna see if we can find that value this weekend at Sonoma.
- 19:26SPEAKER_02: I'll be there on Pit Road.
- 19:28SPEAKER_02: Um, so tune in to the Performance Racing Network all weekend long for our coverage.
- 19:33SPEAKER_02: And Kev, we're uh maybe gonna see you at Chicagoland Speedway.
- 19:37SPEAKER_01: I'll be there.
- 19:38SPEAKER_01: Yep, I'll be there.
- 19:39SPEAKER_02: All right.
- 19:39SPEAKER_02: Well, that's gonna be fun for Kevin Redfern and David Styles.
- 19:42SPEAKER_02: I'm Andrew Curling.
- 19:43SPEAKER_02: Thanks for listening to Racer's Odds.