Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 3

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The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 3 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:13
Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
0:17
Speaker 1: We are sweating the end of some games live from
0:22
Speaker 1: our Tommy John Holmes Studios. I am Chadmllman, Chief Content
0:26
Speaker 1: Officer of the Action Network. This is our Sunday Night
0:30
Speaker 1: episode in which we review the Phase five's picks we
0:34
Speaker 1: put into the contest. This morning, we dissect why we
0:40
Speaker 1: left some games out, preview the early lines we already
0:44
Speaker 1: like for week four. I'm joined as always by my
0:47
Speaker 1: co host, my bff, my companion, Michael Padre, the man
0:51
Speaker 1: who gave out the rams with doctor Nick Giffen on
0:55
Speaker 1: our afternoon BET What Happens Live, Simon Hunter.
1:00
Speaker 2: So I'm in What a day, jad, dude.
1:04
Speaker 1: A miraculous day, A beautiful day. We're not out of
1:08
Speaker 1: the woods in any respect for our five picks, but
1:13
Speaker 1: at least like there was not a ton of anxiety
1:16
Speaker 1: with our picks. We're going to get to that. Catch
1:18
Speaker 1: every episode of The Favorites Live on YouTube. For those
1:22
Speaker 1: enjoying it on YouTube right now, don't forget to give
1:24
Speaker 1: us a life and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.
1:28
Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
1:31
Speaker 1: three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.
1:34
Speaker 1: Customers can get two hundred dollars in bonus bets when
1:37
Speaker 1: you bet five dollars. Sign up using promo code Favorites,
1:42
Speaker 1: deposit ten dollars and place a bet for five dollars
1:44
Speaker 1: to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus
1:48
Speaker 1: bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
1:51
Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet
1:55
Speaker 1: three six five. Must be twenty one or older in
1:58
Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
2:05
Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem call one
2:09
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off. In
2:12
Speaker 1: Iowa terms, conditions restrictions apply. All right, Here's a fun
2:15
Speaker 1: little stat that Evan Abrams has been touting our week
2:20
Speaker 1: that he just put into the script for us. The
2:22
Speaker 1: Rams have won outright underdogs of six plus points, so
2:28
Speaker 1: six points or more moved to eleven and one against
2:32
Speaker 1: the spread, seven and five straight up this season and
2:37
Speaker 1: during Monday Night Football. The Panthers covered as big dogs today,
2:44
Speaker 1: the Giants covered as big dogs today, the Broncos covered
2:49
Speaker 1: as big dogs today. The Giants, the Panthers, the Broncos,
2:54
Speaker 1: all one outright, and now the Rams insane. He blended
3:00
Speaker 1: the varied talents of his teammates like a skilled conductor.
3:05
Speaker 1: He directed them in a classic two minute drill insane day.
3:11
Speaker 1: What's amazing about this contest, Simon, is that we were
3:15
Speaker 1: on all these games, and yet somehow, instead of being
3:19
Speaker 1: four and zero at the end of the day so far,
3:23
Speaker 1: just playing those games, we're two and one. We have
3:26
Speaker 1: the Falcons plus three and a half tonight against the Chiefs,
3:28
Speaker 1: the Jags plus five and a half tomorrow against the Bills.
3:32
Speaker 1: If you believe listeners, viewers, you could beat our picks
3:38
Speaker 1: this season. Be our guest. Let us pay you forty
3:42
Speaker 1: thousand dollars. Sign up for the contest favorites dot Actionnetwork
3:48
Speaker 1: dot Come. All right, let's run through the games, starting
3:52
Speaker 1: with the loser. And I got to emphasize here, just
3:56
Speaker 1: one loser so far through Sunday. I wish I could
3:58
Speaker 1: say we were undefeated, like I said up there at
4:00
Speaker 1: the top. Unfortunately, we never even considered taking our losing
4:05
Speaker 1: team out. In all of these conversations, the good news
4:08
Speaker 1: was time and this was a no sweat day. As
4:11
Speaker 1: far as the games we put into the contest from
4:14
Speaker 1: the outset, the teams we picked either controlled the game
4:19
Speaker 1: or they were never in it, starting with Tennessee minus
4:26
Speaker 1: two and a half against Green Bay. Listen, Matt Lafleur
4:32
Speaker 1: is just a genius. Since nineteen ninety the list of
4:38
Speaker 1: coaches who are above five hundred straight up as a
4:45
Speaker 1: dog with at least seventeen games, Matt Lafleur twenty and
4:49
Speaker 1: fifteen and Mike Tomlin fifty and forty nine. So we're
4:52
Speaker 1: going to break it down. I'm curious to know sort
4:55
Speaker 1: of your perspective on all of it, and I'll take
4:58
Speaker 1: a break from babbling for a second.
5:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, we did have a conversation. We talked
5:04
Speaker 3: about a couple other favorites. And that's what's fun but
5:09
Speaker 3: tough about this show, right, it's a partnership. We're both
5:12
Speaker 3: trying to find games we both like together. And you
5:16
Speaker 3: know today you definitely planned your flag in Denver where
5:18
Speaker 3: I like Denver, but you loved it and you were
5:21
Speaker 3: spot on on that one. I love the Ravens, and
5:24
Speaker 3: I never could get you there. So we end up
5:26
Speaker 3: going with Tennessee, which is another game I love. So yeah,
5:29
Speaker 3: Will Levis throwing a pick six and just being awful.
5:33
Speaker 3: That's that's life bet in Tennessee. That's they're they're a
5:36
Speaker 3: bad team right now. So, like you said, that was brutal,
5:39
Speaker 3: especially in a day where that's our only miss. Everything
5:42
Speaker 3: else really came through. That's that's a tough one. But
5:46
Speaker 3: at the end of the day, it's that's gambling.
5:49
Speaker 2: You know. I have no regrets with it.
5:51
Speaker 3: But yeah, I just you know, going back looking at
5:56
Speaker 3: our picks, it's like, what could I have said to
5:59
Speaker 3: make a different But I just don't think I would
6:01
Speaker 3: have said anything. So no matter what, we were probably
6:03
Speaker 3: going to be either three and one at this point
6:04
Speaker 3: or two in one.
6:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, that to me, I felt like the only game
6:09
Speaker 1: we might have taken out was the Broncos because I
6:14
Speaker 1: got this sense the whole time you were not sort
6:16
Speaker 1: of in love with that pick. I think you really
6:18
Speaker 1: wanted a seven.
6:20
Speaker 3: No I met it, but it was more yeah, like exactly,
6:22
Speaker 3: I was just like I wish the number was.
6:24
Speaker 1: Up there, wanted to know you were always going to
6:26
Speaker 1: bet the game, and we'll get to that game to sack.
6:28
Speaker 1: But but you just wanted a better number. Yeah, I
6:32
Speaker 1: ended up. I ended up buying the seven, and you know,
6:35
Speaker 1: regrettably paid a little extra on the juice. But our
6:39
Speaker 1: theory with green Bay and this is going to be
6:42
Speaker 1: I made a note already for Tuesday in our script,
6:46
Speaker 1: we got to talk about green Bay, what green Bay
6:48
Speaker 1: is doing on defense, and what a good coach Matt
6:52
Speaker 1: Lafleur is like. Our theory was that green Bay would
6:56
Speaker 1: not run the ball as well as did against the
6:59
Speaker 1: Colts they did. Our theory was that Malik Willis would
7:05
Speaker 1: not play well as well as he did against the Colts.
7:08
Speaker 1: He did. Our theory was that this Titans team was
7:11
Speaker 1: really just a couple of mistakes away from being two
7:13
Speaker 1: and zero. They're not. Our reality is that we knew
7:19
Speaker 1: we were stepping into it with will Levis and the
7:25
Speaker 1: Packers ended up with two hundred nearly two hundred yards rushing.
7:28
Speaker 1: They averaged five point five yards per carry. Malik Willis
7:32
Speaker 1: threw for more than two hundred yards ran for seventy
7:35
Speaker 1: three yards. Levis has a nice looking stat line like
7:39
Speaker 1: twenty eight thirty four two sixty two touches, also fumbled
7:43
Speaker 1: and had a pick six, was sacked eight times.
7:46
Speaker 2: You did that.
7:48
Speaker 3: I letna say, like he had nice stats, but he
7:49
Speaker 3: nailed it. It's like I thought you'd have a good day.
7:52
Speaker 3: I thought it was a good matchup for their team,
7:54
Speaker 3: but the defensive playing whatever it was, was just awful.
7:58
Speaker 3: And I knew we were in trouble early in the
8:00
Speaker 3: game where they weren't spying Malik, And it's just like, yeah,
8:04
Speaker 3: why would you not do that? Of all things to
8:06
Speaker 3: do with this kid. Don't let him get comfortable running
8:08
Speaker 3: the ball, because that's gonna give him. Let him build confidence.
8:11
Speaker 3: And like you just said, lafleur Man, what can you say?
8:14
Speaker 3: The guy has been incredible, especially when he coaches his
8:17
Speaker 3: team as an underdog. So yeah, like you said, or
8:22
Speaker 3: one miss, it's what's so brutal? Or one miss we
8:25
Speaker 3: we end up putting the contest. And I just there's
8:28
Speaker 3: no way I could have gone back and have known,
8:30
Speaker 3: just because same thing we're gonna talk about this upcoming week.
8:33
Speaker 3: They're oero for three now oh for three against the spread.
8:36
Speaker 3: This Titans team. Eventually the value will come the other way.
8:40
Speaker 3: But maybe me and you just stay away until they
8:42
Speaker 3: make a change of the QB position.
8:45
Speaker 1: So it's funny you mentioned that. I would say there
8:49
Speaker 1: was one point where Callahan, Brian Calhan, the coach who
8:54
Speaker 1: has been sort of charmingly candid about his feelings for
9:00
Speaker 1: Will Levis during the week after cussing him out last
9:05
Speaker 1: week and then saying how much he basically you know,
9:09
Speaker 1: in not so many words, kind of thought he was
9:11
Speaker 1: an idiot this week and became a great conversation starter
9:15
Speaker 1: for everyone in the media. I actually wondered when what
9:20
Speaker 1: we see the Titans backup quarterback? I was surprised we didn't,
9:24
Speaker 1: and then I remember I had to look it up.
9:25
Speaker 1: What was with Mason Rudolph, who, by the way, was
9:29
Speaker 1: brilliant last year with the Steelers, So why not put
9:34
Speaker 1: him in? Like give your team a shot when they're
9:37
Speaker 1: playing so badly. I do wonder if there will be
9:40
Speaker 1: some kind of conversation in Tennessee now to get Mason
9:46
Speaker 1: Rudolph in similar to Carolina, right, like get a guy
9:50
Speaker 1: if you think your team might be close, get a
9:53
Speaker 1: guy in there who can do something with it. But
9:56
Speaker 1: Matt Lafleur, God, he is good.
10:03
Speaker 2: Just this, I know, I love that you just spent
10:05
Speaker 2: about ten minutes in this game. Though.
10:07
Speaker 1: Let's keep it moving, all right, We're gonna talk a
10:10
Speaker 1: lot more about mattla floor. There's one thing one more.
10:12
Speaker 2: Than disuption of Mala flora right now.
10:14
Speaker 3: It's like, all right, dude, you just beat up Anthony
10:17
Speaker 3: Richardson and Will Levis and Chad's going ape shit.
10:20
Speaker 1: The Packers are also, they are flying to the ball
10:24
Speaker 1: defensively under Jeff Haffley. They have as many picks in
10:27
Speaker 1: three games as they did all of last season. That's
10:31
Speaker 1: seven picks. Pretty good, Yeah, pretty good. All right, let's
10:35
Speaker 1: talk about some winners. There we go, Denver plus six
10:38
Speaker 1: and a half of Tampa. No notes, as they say
10:42
Speaker 1: in Hollywood, no notes.
10:46
Speaker 2: Denver.
10:46
Speaker 1: Denver was nearly flawless, Like, oh yeah, all of the
10:50
Speaker 1: luck trends that we like to talk about. This was
10:54
Speaker 1: a thirty point luck gap, meaning the Bucks have been
10:58
Speaker 1: one of the luckiest, the Broncos have been one of
11:00
Speaker 1: the least lucky. We can get into all of it.
11:04
Speaker 1: Tell me what you saw.
11:07
Speaker 3: Yeah, first reaction would be we thought what Detroy would do?
11:10
Speaker 3: What the Denver did right, attack the secondary like there
11:15
Speaker 3: were holes and openings in the secondary that you could attack,
11:18
Speaker 3: and they were able to do it.
11:19
Speaker 2: But unlike the Lions who kept stowing in the red zone,
11:22
Speaker 2: they shockingly didn't.
11:23
Speaker 3: Right, bon Nicks looked comfortable in the red zone, had
11:26
Speaker 3: a couple of nice plays, you know, pulling the ball
11:28
Speaker 3: down and running it, which is what we want to
11:30
Speaker 3: see out of him, right, I'd rather see him take
11:32
Speaker 3: a sack in the red zone then him keep throwing
11:34
Speaker 3: those interceptions. So the most surprising part was just how
11:38
Speaker 3: bad Baker played. He never looked comfortable. Denver's defense did
11:42
Speaker 3: are a great job against them, And yeah, Chack giving
11:46
Speaker 3: you your flowers, Like that's the kind of number where
11:49
Speaker 3: it's the dream, right when you're when you get a
11:50
Speaker 3: double digits, when you have a six and a half
11:52
Speaker 3: point dog, you're just like, I have no worries where
11:55
Speaker 3: you know we're gonna talk about the vikings. It's never
11:58
Speaker 3: really that far away because you know we're getting only
12:00
Speaker 3: a point in a half or two and a half.
12:01
Speaker 3: But when you have that six and a half, seven
12:03
Speaker 3: and a half kind of numbers late in these games,
12:06
Speaker 3: it's just like, you know, there was no way that
12:08
Speaker 3: we weren't going to cover that number one Denver. So
12:11
Speaker 3: looking at the matchup wise going forward for them, I
12:13
Speaker 3: think they learned a lot about, you know, having bone
12:16
Speaker 3: Nicks kind of just get outside.
12:17
Speaker 2: The pocket more.
12:18
Speaker 3: I think that was really pretty, you know, pretty telling
12:21
Speaker 3: in that game that Chempayn wouldn't to do that with him. So, yeah,
12:25
Speaker 3: once again Denver's defense, that to me is probably the
12:27
Speaker 3: most shocking part. How well they played against that Bucks offense.
12:30
Speaker 1: Yeah, I thought they played really well. I thought there'd
12:34
Speaker 1: be more points scored in the game because Denver's defense
12:38
Speaker 1: has been good, not great, and because the reason we
12:41
Speaker 1: liked Denver so much was Vita Vea's out. Another defensive
12:47
Speaker 1: lineman is out, their secondary is incredibly banged up, and
12:51
Speaker 1: everything the Lions did wrong Sean Payton did right this
12:57
Speaker 1: week with bone Nicks. Also, all of the luck trends,
13:02
Speaker 1: sort of the regressions on turnovers, fourth down conversions, performance
13:09
Speaker 1: in the red zone, scoring touchdowns, all the things that
13:12
Speaker 1: they have suffered from or that have happened to them
13:16
Speaker 1: went their way this week. Like, here's my list of
13:20
Speaker 1: things the Broncos did that indicated sort of a luck turnaround.
13:28
Speaker 1: Bon Nick's first three plays three for three fifty nine
13:32
Speaker 1: yards two plays pass plays of twenty plus yards scored
13:36
Speaker 1: a rushing TV at the end of the drive, even
13:39
Speaker 1: after he had had to delay a game in the
13:42
Speaker 1: red zone after picking off Baker Mayfield, the Broncos and
13:47
Speaker 1: Bonnicks fumbled. That fumble didn't count because the Bucks were
13:53
Speaker 1: off sides. They went forward on fourth and goal inches away,
13:58
Speaker 1: pitched it wide. The guy barely snuck into the end zone.
14:03
Speaker 1: Like they even got a fumble by Tampa in the
14:05
Speaker 1: red zone. This was just so enjoyable, Like it was
14:12
Speaker 1: so stress free. I couldn't have been happier with this game.
14:16
Speaker 1: I wished every game. I wish this was the only
14:19
Speaker 1: game that I was watching the whole day.
14:21
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's also we got lucky where you know, people
14:25
Speaker 3: overreacted to a lot of these teams after two games, right,
14:28
Speaker 3: and I think Bucks is one of those teams. The
14:29
Speaker 3: Saints again, we'd't even talk about where. You know, I
14:32
Speaker 3: really like the Eagles and you never got there.
14:33
Speaker 2: But I got why. The Saints were pretty damn.
14:36
Speaker 3: Scary through two games, and I understood your hesitation with it,
14:40
Speaker 3: and I thought to myself, Man, they can't be this good.
14:44
Speaker 3: They're just they had to come back to Earth. I
14:46
Speaker 3: think just like the Saints the Bucks. We saw Derek
14:49
Speaker 3: Carr come back to Earth and we saw Baker come
14:51
Speaker 3: back to Earth. Right, even if Baker had a good
14:53
Speaker 3: game as a whole, that team, the Bucks have so
14:55
Speaker 3: many injuries to that defense, it was just like, man,
14:58
Speaker 3: if they can get the ball moving on Denver here,
15:00
Speaker 3: I just never thought we would have a problem with
15:03
Speaker 3: back in that side. And you know, little did we
15:05
Speaker 3: know that just the Bucks, the whole team wasn't going
15:07
Speaker 3: to show up today, right, So, like you said, I
15:09
Speaker 3: think it was what it was, seventeen nothing at one
15:12
Speaker 3: point or fourteen w whatever it was. I just said
15:15
Speaker 3: to myself, Okay, Chad nailed this one. That this number
15:17
Speaker 3: is never going to be a sweat.
15:19
Speaker 1: Here's the good news. We never have to bet the
15:22
Speaker 1: Broncos or Boonix again. We've been waiting for the exact
15:26
Speaker 1: right number and the exact right spot to take advantage
15:29
Speaker 1: of their number in an overinflation undervalued spot. This was it.
15:35
Speaker 1: And by the way, you mentioned the Ravens, you mentioned
15:37
Speaker 1: the Eagles. I do want to like get into those games.
15:40
Speaker 1: So we are going to get through the last game
15:42
Speaker 1: that we did bet and that we did win because
15:45
Speaker 1: I think the games that we left out are just
15:48
Speaker 1: as fascinating as the games that we put in. So
15:52
Speaker 1: I do want to get to a bunch of those games. Yeah,
15:54
Speaker 1: the last game that we bet today in a game reminder,
15:57
Speaker 1: we got the Falcons tonight plus three and a half
16:00
Speaker 1: the Jacks plus five and a half tomorrow. In our
16:02
Speaker 1: favorites contest, we had Houston at Minnesota plus two and
16:06
Speaker 1: a half. You've been on this since Sunday, like it
16:09
Speaker 1: was three and a half on Sunday last night when
16:11
Speaker 1: we did the show. You bet it, then kept betting it.
16:14
Speaker 1: You were on it today. Unconvinced me. Eleven am Eastern
16:19
Speaker 1: watching in YouTube in the Action Network app, this was
16:22
Speaker 1: your best bet of the day on sides, even when
16:25
Speaker 1: it get down to one and a half. Here's something
16:28
Speaker 1: my son said to me while we were watching the game.
16:32
Speaker 1: I don't think there were any odds on anyone saying
16:35
Speaker 1: this in the world when this season started. Is Sam
16:41
Speaker 1: Darnold the MVP of the league right now?
16:48
Speaker 2: No, but he is playing really good. I'll give him that.
16:52
Speaker 3: I mean, you can't hate on it where it's like
16:55
Speaker 3: he has complete confidence in the offense, and there was
16:56
Speaker 3: a couple throws in that game where big time throws
16:58
Speaker 3: right like to the sideline only his guy could catch it.
17:02
Speaker 2: Pretty impressive throws.
17:03
Speaker 3: But I told you my main reason for liking that spot,
17:06
Speaker 3: it was definitely Brian Flores in that defense, and you
17:09
Speaker 3: saw immediately that you know, CJ was not comfortable like that.
17:13
Speaker 3: Just the different looks he can set up with that
17:15
Speaker 3: defense and the vikings is you know, to me, that's
17:19
Speaker 3: been the game changer this season as much as Sam
17:20
Speaker 3: Donald as well. Like I'm not gonna again, I'm not
17:22
Speaker 3: trying knock Sam Donald. He's played so well here, but
17:26
Speaker 3: that that defense really showed up, and you know, you
17:30
Speaker 3: talked about it like it's it's always a little scary
17:32
Speaker 3: when we give out these numbers on Sunday and then
17:35
Speaker 3: I'm betting it all week and then we get to
17:37
Speaker 3: this point and you're right, it was all the way
17:38
Speaker 3: down to one one and a half and it's just like, okay,
17:40
Speaker 3: what at what point does this become the public chalky side?
17:45
Speaker 3: And luckily a ton of money came in late that
17:48
Speaker 3: gave me a little confidence on that Houston team where
17:50
Speaker 3: it's like, okay, at least there are people bet on
17:51
Speaker 3: the other side, and that was just another no brainer, right.
17:55
Speaker 3: I think it was fourteen to nothing right from the
17:57
Speaker 3: get go, and with two turnovers as well, which is
18:01
Speaker 3: like pretty shocking for that Houston side. And once Sam
18:05
Speaker 3: kind of got into a groove, that offense was just clicking.
18:08
Speaker 3: So even when he got banged up he came back in,
18:10
Speaker 3: he still looked pretty good. That's one thing I'm definitely
18:14
Speaker 3: gonna be checking for. Is it sounds crazy, but definitely
18:17
Speaker 3: interested in his injury report and what he's like going forward.
18:21
Speaker 3: But you know, he played the end of the game,
18:23
Speaker 3: and you know, we said the same thing about Herbert
18:25
Speaker 3: last week, and then it popped up this week. They
18:27
Speaker 3: didn't look right, so I wanted to bet. We'll talk
18:32
Speaker 3: again the lines coming up. But they're the team I
18:34
Speaker 3: kind of liked this upcoming week, and now with the
18:36
Speaker 3: unknown of Sam Donald what his injury might be, they're
18:39
Speaker 3: definitely a team I'm gonna wait on, not bet right away.
18:41
Speaker 1: Sam Donald's odds for MVP are fifty to one right now.
18:47
Speaker 1: His stats through three games six hundred and fifty seven
18:52
Speaker 1: passing yard, sixty eight percent completion rate, eight touchdowns, only
18:55
Speaker 1: two picks, A ninety seven yard touchdown pass win against
19:00
Speaker 1: the Giants, Niners, and Texans.
19:05
Speaker 2: That's good.
19:06
Speaker 1: Why wouldn't she take a flyer on Sam's Kevin O'Connell
19:10
Speaker 1: is locked in and he deserves as much credit as
19:14
Speaker 1: Matt lafleur. They might be the two best coaches in
19:16
Speaker 1: the NFL right now, Matt Lafloor Jarman O'Connell. Two best
19:21
Speaker 1: coaches in the NFL are in the same division as
19:24
Speaker 1: the Bears. And you nailed it. You nailed it this game.
19:29
Speaker 1: You've been saying it all week. You just said Brian
19:32
Speaker 1: Flores what he could do to this Texans defense and CJ. Stroud,
19:37
Speaker 1: which is exactly what they did. He had two picks,
19:40
Speaker 1: five sacks. They were only four or fourteen on third down.
19:42
Speaker 1: They were playing it seemed like they were playing behind
19:44
Speaker 1: the chains, and definitely they were trying to comfort behind
19:50
Speaker 1: this entire game. Yeah, like you nailed Simon, You nailed
19:56
Speaker 1: this handicap, just nailed it.
19:59
Speaker 2: That was good.
20:01
Speaker 1: You know what's even better, Simon, this was our Tommy
20:08
Speaker 1: John Big Balls Bet of the Week. I don't know
20:12
Speaker 1: if you know this or not, but ever since Tommy
20:15
Speaker 1: John started sponsoring the show, we are undefeated with our
20:21
Speaker 1: big balls better the week. Yeah, can you believe that
20:25
Speaker 1: we're three? We're three? To know with our big balls
20:30
Speaker 1: bet of the week. I went back and looked and
20:33
Speaker 1: it's true, we are three. And oh I think I
20:36
Speaker 1: feel so much more comfortable making these big balls bets.
20:40
Speaker 1: We barely sweat these bets. Is that a coincidence?
20:45
Speaker 2: And we definitely didn't last week at Green Bays. I
20:47
Speaker 2: guess you're right.
20:48
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't think it's a coincidence that ever
20:51
Speaker 1: since Tommy John started sponsoring it, we're more comfortable and
20:55
Speaker 1: less sweaty. All right, these are the games we left
20:59
Speaker 1: off the table, Panther's plus six and a half. I mean,
21:04
Speaker 1: we wanted to do it. I feel like we did
21:07
Speaker 1: a disservice to our fans because we believed in Andy Dalton.
21:11
Speaker 2: Then we believe you have the money line, that the
21:14
Speaker 2: money line, the round robin.
21:15
Speaker 1: Give away on the money line. We gave the money line.
21:17
Speaker 1: We didn't put them in the contest. We believe this
21:20
Speaker 1: team was better than their performance. It was a bryce
21:22
Speaker 1: young issue.
21:23
Speaker 3: I just promised the people we wouldn't do it. I
21:26
Speaker 3: just they were as much as we loved it. I
21:29
Speaker 3: just knew they didn't want to hear it, so it's
21:30
Speaker 3: just like, let's let them see it and then they'll
21:32
Speaker 3: maybe believe it. But I knew a couple of psychopaths
21:35
Speaker 3: who were ride with us on our money line bets,
21:36
Speaker 3: were like, they'll bet their money line with us, and
21:39
Speaker 3: hopefully they did, because you know, we gave out them
21:41
Speaker 3: and the Giants, and that combo on the round robin
21:43
Speaker 3: was a pretty pretty nice payout.
21:46
Speaker 1: Pretty pretty pretty good payout for the Panthers the Giants.
21:54
Speaker 1: I forgot who else was in the round robin? Not
21:57
Speaker 1: the parlay, but the round robin. Does anyone remember Kings
22:00
Speaker 1: were in there? Vikings were in there.
22:03
Speaker 3: We have Atlanta left, and I'm guessing we lost on Arizona.
22:07
Speaker 1: I think we might have at Arizona too. We also
22:10
Speaker 1: felt like the Raiders had no business being six and
22:15
Speaker 1: a half point favorites. The just weren't good enough. And
22:19
Speaker 1: then Gardner Minshew got replaced at the end of the game.
22:22
Speaker 1: Then you really yeah, yeah, Aidan O'Connell came in. Eagles,
22:28
Speaker 1: you love them. I was skeptical. I feel like we
22:33
Speaker 1: were kind of both right because at the end of
22:35
Speaker 1: the day, they needed a miracle, Like if two Saints
22:40
Speaker 1: players don't bump into each other with one of them
22:44
Speaker 1: trying to guard Dallas Goddard running across the middle with
22:49
Speaker 1: with seventy five seconds left. They don't get the ball
22:53
Speaker 1: to him on third and sixteen, and he doesn't sprint
22:56
Speaker 1: down the sideline and put them in a position to
22:58
Speaker 1: score a touchdown. That was a that was a miracle.
23:01
Speaker 1: Cover Like, you used up some of your good karma
23:04
Speaker 1: for the season on this.
23:05
Speaker 3: So the team that lost their number one receiver, their
23:07
Speaker 3: number two receiver, and their left tackle got lucky in
23:10
Speaker 3: that game.
23:11
Speaker 2: Chat. Is that what you're saying right now.
23:13
Speaker 1: A little bit?
23:14
Speaker 2: Yeah?
23:14
Speaker 3: I mean you're a Bears fan, so you don't even
23:16
Speaker 3: know what good quarterback play looks like. So I'm not
23:17
Speaker 3: gonna go, oh my god, Yeah, I mean, dude, I
23:22
Speaker 3: was ready to go stick a bunch of four sales
23:26
Speaker 3: signs in Sirianni's yard. I mean the coach email practice
23:29
Speaker 3: in this game in so many different ways was just brutal.
23:32
Speaker 3: But the reason I couldn't believe you didn't want to
23:35
Speaker 3: do it was just like, dude, we were catching Dennis
23:37
Speaker 3: Allen after two wins in a row, when not like
23:40
Speaker 3: you couldn't get more hyped, and it was just like
23:42
Speaker 3: this guy is gonna blow it in some way, and
23:46
Speaker 3: they did. I mean, I can't believe they didn't win
23:49
Speaker 3: that game at home in that spot. Yeah, the Eagles
23:52
Speaker 3: defense came to play for sure, watching all that game,
23:54
Speaker 3: like their run defense was really good. Jalen Carter probably
23:57
Speaker 3: had his best game as an Eagle. But the Barkley signing,
24:03
Speaker 3: I mean, wow, yeah, Like even though you know he
24:08
Speaker 3: he let us down last last week, this game is
24:11
Speaker 3: really why he's such a special talent. Like everything he does,
24:16
Speaker 3: he gets better as the games go along. And I
24:19
Speaker 3: believe the Saints had and given up like one hundred
24:20
Speaker 3: yard rushing at home in like three years, and I
24:23
Speaker 3: think he put up one forty six, so that that
24:27
Speaker 3: was definitely the right side.
24:30
Speaker 2: But I agree with you where you.
24:32
Speaker 3: Know, I thought, I don't know if the Eagles didn't
24:35
Speaker 3: get three or we had a turnover in the red zone,
24:36
Speaker 3: but all these things have happened where it's just like,
24:39
Speaker 3: you know what people are right about Geon Hurts. He's
24:41
Speaker 3: just loose with the ball, he doesn't protect it, he
24:43
Speaker 3: plays sloppy. But you know he had a big drive
24:46
Speaker 3: there at the end of the game. That's just going
24:48
Speaker 3: to shut people up for another week. So I don't
24:50
Speaker 3: think Amerciriana out of the woods yet. That's a big
24:53
Speaker 3: time win. Like that Saints team they had back to
24:56
Speaker 3: back putting up forty points and they had Chad scared,
24:58
Speaker 3: which is just mind because you hate Dennis Allen. When
25:01
Speaker 3: I think of people who shot on Dennis Allen, it's you.
25:04
Speaker 3: Uh So, yeah, we'll see going forward the Saints team.
25:07
Speaker 3: But I think all of us can take a deep
25:09
Speaker 3: breath and realize this is not the Rams from two thousand, right,
25:12
Speaker 3: So I think we all can agree on that, you know.
25:15
Speaker 1: And I my feeling on this was I was more
25:18
Speaker 1: worried about the Eagles without a j. Brown, And this
25:24
Speaker 1: is another thing I want us to think about next week,
25:27
Speaker 1: especially the spot that the Eagles are going in.
25:30
Speaker 2: I don't think Smith's gonna play either.
25:32
Speaker 3: I mean, he got hit by defensive linemen that yeah,
25:35
Speaker 3: probably has two hundred pounds on him right into his head.
25:38
Speaker 1: Like, yeah, Kwayne Johnson has a concussion. Now Devonte Smith
25:41
Speaker 1: has a concussion. This team is not in great shape.
25:47
Speaker 1: In addition to the mistakes, right, Like, it's not just
25:51
Speaker 1: the coaching malpractice. It's an undisciplined team and they are
25:56
Speaker 1: shooting themselves in the foot. They are so talented when
25:59
Speaker 1: they are all healthy, and Sirianni like, unless they are
26:04
Speaker 1: blowing people out, you cannot count on this team necessarily
26:09
Speaker 1: win unless you got two Saints pumping into each other
26:12
Speaker 1: and they're playing against Dennis Allen and even then like
26:15
Speaker 1: it was a miracle.
26:18
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's just there again though, they're they're what I'll
26:22
Speaker 3: catch away from Barkley for being three and zero right
26:25
Speaker 3: now and great, really big wins to start the season.
26:27
Speaker 3: So it is tough where it's like, I agree with
26:29
Speaker 3: everything you're saying, but it's like they have so much
26:32
Speaker 3: talent that every week's can be hard to take against them. Unles,
26:35
Speaker 3: we're getting a decent amount of points. So they're a
26:38
Speaker 3: team that that that game right there kind of feels
26:41
Speaker 3: like they determine their season. Right If they would have
26:43
Speaker 3: lost that game, yes, things could have got ugly pretty
26:45
Speaker 3: quick for sirian.
26:46
Speaker 2: And that Eagles team. So that was a huge one
26:48
Speaker 2: for that Eagles team.
26:50
Speaker 1: Also, you might be able to credit me for the win.
26:54
Speaker 1: I may have jinxed the Saints because when they were
26:57
Speaker 1: about right before that third and sixteen miracle play I
27:02
Speaker 1: put in my notebook New Orleans and Minnesota three and zero.
27:08
Speaker 1: Who to thunk it? Oh god, I did it for you.
27:13
Speaker 1: Yeah so fast, Yeah, Colts minus one and a half.
27:17
Speaker 1: I liked it the whole week. You were suspect. I
27:21
Speaker 1: actually think we were both right on this one too.
27:23
Speaker 1: Like even though, oh my god, even though Caleb Williams
27:28
Speaker 1: like consistently confused Colts defensive backs for Bears receivers. This
27:34
Speaker 1: game was seven to three until the last plays of
27:39
Speaker 1: the third quarter. It was fourteen to nine with five
27:42
Speaker 1: minutes left in the game. The Bears even had a shot.
27:45
Speaker 1: Like in the final couple of minutes. The Colts did
27:48
Speaker 1: exactly what we said they were going to do, right, Yeah,
27:50
Speaker 1: We're going to run the ball against a middling Bears
27:53
Speaker 1: rush defense. They gained one hundred and fifty yards. They
27:56
Speaker 1: had multiple explosive runs, including a long Jonathan Taylor ron
28:03
Speaker 1: so like, I feel like this is similar to the
28:09
Speaker 1: cult to the Saints and the Eagles, and that I
28:13
Speaker 1: wanted to bet it end up being the right side.
28:16
Speaker 1: You were skeptical. You were probably right as well. I'm
28:20
Speaker 1: really glad we didn't put it in the contest.
28:24
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say though, if you're a Bears fan,
28:26
Speaker 3: the things to be excited about is whenever you do
28:29
Speaker 3: get rid of this offensive coordinator. There is so many
28:33
Speaker 3: things to build off with Caleb Williams, Like there are
28:35
Speaker 3: little things he does. You're just like, man, this kid
28:37
Speaker 3: is so incredibly talented. But whatever offense you guys are gonning,
28:42
Speaker 3: I just hate it.
28:43
Speaker 2: I just I've watched too much bearriers I care to
28:45
Speaker 2: even admit to this point through three games.
28:47
Speaker 3: But yeah, the Colts team, Anthony Richardson, I think we
28:53
Speaker 3: talked a little bit about going to the year where
28:54
Speaker 3: it's just like this kid just needs game reps.
28:57
Speaker 2: It's gonna be a lot of ugly, but there's gonna
28:59
Speaker 2: be some good in there.
29:00
Speaker 3: And that pick he threw into the end zone was
29:04
Speaker 3: just atrocious, Like it's just it's something you don't really
29:07
Speaker 3: see in the pros how bad it was where it's
29:09
Speaker 3: like there was three guys in front of the ball
29:11
Speaker 3: and he threw it right to your guy.
29:14
Speaker 2: Man, that was just so bad.
29:15
Speaker 3: So the Colts team going forward, chat, I don't know,
29:18
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna bet them as confident as I am.
29:20
Speaker 3: I think it's talking about our situations and the different
29:22
Speaker 3: matchups where yes, you know some teams won't match up
29:24
Speaker 3: well for them, but we talked going into this game.
29:27
Speaker 3: Their secondary is really suspect, and I think Kleb almost
29:31
Speaker 3: threw for four hundred yards against them, Like I think
29:33
Speaker 3: it was like three eighty when he put up, which
29:36
Speaker 3: I mean you've watched him as well, Like that's that's
29:39
Speaker 3: an insane amount for even him. So yeah, that one's right,
29:43
Speaker 3: Like it wasn't even one of my bigger bets. I
29:46
Speaker 3: remember earing the week we were talking about and it's
29:48
Speaker 3: just like, yeah, you're right, the Colts were owing to
29:51
Speaker 3: back against the wall. It's just like the Rams there, right,
29:53
Speaker 3: you back these teams that are super desperate and they
29:56
Speaker 3: usually find a way, and they certainly found a way,
29:59
Speaker 3: and it's just the the Bears can stop shooting themselves
30:01
Speaker 3: on the foot.
30:02
Speaker 1: The only bright side I wrote to my buddies in
30:05
Speaker 1: our Bears text chain that is like so apoplectic and
30:10
Speaker 1: upset and talking about the offensive coordinator. I told everybody
30:17
Speaker 1: it happened to be on one of Kayleb Williams' picks
30:23
Speaker 1: in the second half. It was his thirty second pass
30:26
Speaker 1: of the game. And that's when I told everybody that
30:30
Speaker 1: for our betting Investment club, I had bet a parlay
30:35
Speaker 1: of DJ Moore over sixty two and a half receiving yards,
30:38
Speaker 1: which you gave out on Convinced Me, which he got
30:41
Speaker 1: on a hail Mary deflection at the end of the
30:44
Speaker 1: first half where he ended up being down at the
30:46
Speaker 1: one and the Bears didn't score, but it got him
30:48
Speaker 1: to seventy seven yards in the first half and Kayleb
30:52
Speaker 1: Williams over thirty one and a half passing attempts, thanked
30:54
Speaker 1: to doctor Nick, your co host on bet What Happens
30:56
Speaker 1: Live Today, So we did win that parlay. Maybe you
31:01
Speaker 1: all the happier even though even though we didn't win
31:03
Speaker 1: the game, we didn't win a nice little parlay. You
31:07
Speaker 1: go ahead.
31:08
Speaker 3: I'll just say, if you haven't listened to me and
31:10
Speaker 3: chat and check like commenced me, you are really missing
31:12
Speaker 3: out right. Sean Kerner, one of the other pickers on
31:15
Speaker 3: the show, he had a sixteen and oh streak heading
31:17
Speaker 3: into that Sunday show, and you know today Chris Raybahn,
31:22
Speaker 3: I believe he's six and oh on his picks in
31:24
Speaker 3: the app so he went three and oh on the show.
31:27
Speaker 3: I went three on the three and oh on the show,
31:29
Speaker 3: and you know, we're through three weeks shore. The worst
31:31
Speaker 3: week I've had on that My worst picks on that
31:33
Speaker 3: show are three and one. So you know, week one
31:35
Speaker 3: I went three and one, Week two and three in row,
31:38
Speaker 3: and it's looking like week three, I'm gonna go three
31:40
Speaker 3: and one again. Uh if Atlanta hasn't come through for
31:42
Speaker 3: us tonight. So yeah, that commenced me show. It has
31:45
Speaker 3: just been money this year. And you know, like you
31:47
Speaker 3: already talked about, we bet dogs and unders. It's been
31:51
Speaker 3: a great year for dogs and unders.
31:54
Speaker 1: Uh, tell me again, why didn't you why you didn't
31:57
Speaker 1: make me pick Baltimore.
32:00
Speaker 2: I mean you were being soft about it, Chad. Let's
32:03
Speaker 2: be honest.
32:03
Speaker 3: You're just like I gave you all these stats from
32:06
Speaker 3: Evan that were just insane. It was just like, it's
32:10
Speaker 3: Lamar against the NFC's twenty and one.
32:13
Speaker 2: Straight up.
32:14
Speaker 3: All we needed to do was straight up win and
32:16
Speaker 3: it was money in the bank. But your hesitation was
32:20
Speaker 3: I don't trust Baltimore's defense, which doesn't look too crazy.
32:24
Speaker 3: Every time we talk about they just let them come
32:26
Speaker 3: all the way.
32:27
Speaker 2: Back, right. Yeahy're up twenty eight to six. The game
32:30
Speaker 2: ended twenty eight to five, so the reason for it
32:33
Speaker 2: is valid.
32:34
Speaker 3: Like, they don't really have an identity on defense, But
32:36
Speaker 3: my reason to you was they might have one of
32:39
Speaker 3: the worst run defenses of football and one of the
32:41
Speaker 3: worst run games of football offensively, Dallas.
32:43
Speaker 2: Like that's a big issue this season. We saw it today.
32:47
Speaker 3: I mean, the Ravens could get as anything they wanted
32:49
Speaker 3: running the ball, especially with Derrick Henry. So yeah, that
32:52
Speaker 3: was my Scooter Lepik never in doubt until that very
32:56
Speaker 3: very end there. But yeah, it's stuff we missed on it.
33:01
Speaker 3: But your hesitation was valid. I was just like, I
33:04
Speaker 3: can't see this team being oh and three against the
33:07
Speaker 3: spreading oh and three straight up to start the season.
33:09
Speaker 2: That Ravens team, they just they were unlucky in their
33:11
Speaker 2: first two games.
33:12
Speaker 3: So great to see them bounce back, even though they
33:15
Speaker 3: don't have a starting kicker on their team.
33:17
Speaker 2: Justin Tucker another miss today. I can't pack it. Yeah, No,
33:23
Speaker 2: it's crazy how they just age like that kickers.
33:25
Speaker 1: It's insane. Yeah, what has happened to him? Do you
33:28
Speaker 1: think we would have replaced Tennessee with the Ravens? Like,
33:31
Speaker 1: was that what we were going to do.
33:33
Speaker 3: Yeah, because we were talking about replacing a favorite, because
33:35
Speaker 3: I knew there was no chance you were going to
33:37
Speaker 3: take Denver out. And I wasn't really pushing it either,
33:40
Speaker 3: because it was just like, we're getting a good number
33:42
Speaker 3: of the contest. It wasn't five and a half anymore.
33:43
Speaker 3: It was up to six and a half, So it's like,
33:45
Speaker 3: we'll keep that. Vikings was no doubt or two and
33:47
Speaker 3: a half. Maybe the only hesitation I had today when
33:50
Speaker 3: I woke up was our Jaguars pick just thinking about it.
33:55
Speaker 3: But I don't think I ever would have tried to
33:56
Speaker 3: make you switch it out, just because I've already bett
33:58
Speaker 3: it so much this week.
33:59
Speaker 2: So yeah, like I said all the time, chat, it's hard.
34:02
Speaker 2: We need to try to be both on the same side.
34:03
Speaker 3: And it's rare that I can convince you that Sunday
34:06
Speaker 3: morn on a side you don't love. Your hesitation on
34:08
Speaker 3: the Ravens, like I said, was valid that defense going forward.
34:12
Speaker 3: That's gonna be the reason we're a little scared to
34:14
Speaker 3: take them if the number is not right.
34:15
Speaker 2: Right, but we talk Lamar.
34:17
Speaker 3: Under three points, so if he's less than three point favorite,
34:20
Speaker 3: now he's twenty three and seven against the spread in
34:23
Speaker 3: his career.
34:25
Speaker 2: Damn good.
34:26
Speaker 1: It's really that's why.
34:28
Speaker 2: I I remember I took him scooch for that.
34:29
Speaker 3: You're like, oh my god, you're taking the chalk favorite,
34:31
Speaker 3: and it's just like chalk sometimes wins, and now it
34:34
Speaker 3: was one of those sometimes that wins.
34:38
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about week four lines here. Bear's
34:41
Speaker 1: are one point favorites at home.
34:45
Speaker 3: You liking that spot against the Rams. I don't hate it, No,
34:49
Speaker 3: you should like it, that is I'm with you. I
34:51
Speaker 3: would not bet it yet, So I do you think
34:53
Speaker 3: we might be able to get a plus number?
34:55
Speaker 2: What do you think?
34:56
Speaker 1: I know, I agree, especially with the resp when they
34:58
Speaker 1: come back. They came back today, But there is a
35:01
Speaker 1: big difference between coming back against division arrival who you
35:06
Speaker 1: are so familiar with at home, and then going on
35:09
Speaker 1: the road. Like think about last week the Rams got
35:13
Speaker 1: blown out by the Cardinals in the same way the
35:16
Speaker 1: week before. They have played so well. This is geared
35:20
Speaker 1: for a letdown, and the Bears are in a position
35:24
Speaker 1: to overachieve, learning from mistakes, planning against a team that
35:29
Speaker 1: is so beat up, like we don't know who's going
35:32
Speaker 1: to be on the field.
35:33
Speaker 3: And it's actually a great matchup for your defense against
35:36
Speaker 3: Rams team exactly.
35:39
Speaker 1: So I saw that and I immediately thought, oh, yeah,
35:42
Speaker 1: I like them.
35:43
Speaker 3: I'm gonna throw a little bit on just in just
35:44
Speaker 3: in case you ran the professionals dude coming on the Bears.
35:47
Speaker 3: But I just I can see the public hammer in
35:50
Speaker 3: this Rams team now. They just everyone hates this Bear's team.
35:53
Speaker 3: I just think everyone's totally off them at this point.
35:56
Speaker 3: So I think we might get a good.
35:57
Speaker 2: Number on that.
36:00
Speaker 1: The other game that jumped out at me, don't laugh
36:03
Speaker 1: at me. Yeah, Green Bay is a very short home
36:07
Speaker 1: favorite against Minnesota.
36:11
Speaker 3: Yeah, honestly, I bet it just because I bet it
36:14
Speaker 3: before the games today, just in case Jordan and Love
36:16
Speaker 3: did come back.
36:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I like that too for early bet.
36:24
Speaker 3: Yeah, even though it is that is tough throwing Jordan
36:27
Speaker 3: Love in against his Vikings defense, because that they're gonna
36:30
Speaker 3: they're gonna be bringing the heat on his ass.
36:31
Speaker 2: There's no doubt they're gonna make him test of that leg.
36:35
Speaker 2: I think you're right. I'm gonna grab it now, just
36:36
Speaker 2: because this is a key number at two.
36:38
Speaker 1: Look at that, you think I'm right. I got two
36:40
Speaker 1: games that I'm looking at and you're like, oh, yeah,
36:42
Speaker 1: you know what.
36:43
Speaker 3: You know what I like though, just bet these ugly
36:45
Speaker 3: home favorites. I'm gonna give you a chalk bet that
36:50
Speaker 3: I made right away before you even came on the air.
36:52
Speaker 3: Tell me Cowboys minus five and a half Thursday Night
36:56
Speaker 3: Football in the Meadowlands, don't They beat the Giants by
37:00
Speaker 3: thirty points every time they play.
37:02
Speaker 2: Interesting, this is the only team Dak beats up.
37:05
Speaker 3: So this number look ahead was minus seven. After the
37:08
Speaker 3: loss and the Giants win, It's moved under a key
37:11
Speaker 3: number now, So I hate it because it's so chalky
37:15
Speaker 3: and it's a standalone Island game. But I'm just gonna
37:18
Speaker 3: grab it now because I think it goes back above
37:20
Speaker 3: the six jet. So this is just grabbing the number
37:22
Speaker 3: before it moves. No way this will be our big balls.
37:26
Speaker 3: Simon says, any of that most likely, but I'm gonna
37:30
Speaker 3: grab it now. I just I love this Cowboys in
37:31
Speaker 3: this bounce back spot. They've lost two games in a row,
37:35
Speaker 3: both at home, both embarrassing.
37:37
Speaker 2: This is the type of spot.
37:38
Speaker 3: Where they go on the road and they just beat
37:40
Speaker 3: the absolute shit of the Giants. That's they're not that
37:43
Speaker 3: good of a team. They played Deshaun Watson today, which
37:45
Speaker 3: is the reason they look so good. Right. I think
37:48
Speaker 3: you said they had eight sacks or something like that.
37:50
Speaker 3: So yeah, this is a nice spot for the Cowboys
37:53
Speaker 3: to get right and just a typical letdown spot for
37:58
Speaker 3: this Giants team.
38:01
Speaker 1: Any other games, I have one more game that I'm
38:03
Speaker 1: I'm spying a little bit, just a little bit.
38:09
Speaker 3: Uh, the only other game that really jumped out, and
38:13
Speaker 3: it's just in case our Jaguars beck comes through.
38:17
Speaker 2: It's the Ravens a minus two and a half. I
38:21
Speaker 2: just gave you that. I just gave you a La
38:22
Speaker 2: Mar stat.
38:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting to me. I was leaning the other
38:28
Speaker 1: way the Bills. No, I was looking at the Jags
38:33
Speaker 1: as four and a half point dogs road against the Texans,
38:37
Speaker 1: thinking that number is going to get smaller if our
38:40
Speaker 1: Jags bet like that thought, that's what I liked.
38:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll be I'll be honest, though.
38:47
Speaker 3: If the Jags cover and do well against the Bills,
38:50
Speaker 3: you expect them to let down. Yeah, I'm gonna hammer
38:52
Speaker 3: Houston at home in those kind of spots. So I
38:56
Speaker 3: get where you're coming from. That actually actually actually interesting side,
38:59
Speaker 3: but I can't touch it. I honestly, I'm glad you
39:03
Speaker 3: didn't bring up I think you're gonna try to get
39:05
Speaker 3: me on Denver here right away.
39:06
Speaker 2: It's seven and a half. No, No, that's how I
39:10
Speaker 2: feel about it. Where it's just now, man, is that tempting?
39:13
Speaker 3: They know us though, they know us pretty well where
39:15
Speaker 3: it's like, if this was six and a half, seven
39:17
Speaker 3: and a half, seven, I wouldn't touch it.
39:18
Speaker 2: But at seven and a half, I'm just like, should
39:20
Speaker 2: I take Denver here? But you're right, You're right.
39:23
Speaker 1: What did I say? What did I say? That was
39:25
Speaker 1: the exact right spot? This week? We never have to
39:28
Speaker 1: bet the Broncos again as long as we live. We
39:31
Speaker 1: are done. We are done. We can go back to
39:34
Speaker 1: betting the Panthers every week.
39:37
Speaker 3: So I'll tell people right now though another really sharp
39:39
Speaker 3: side that I'm not going to bet right now because
39:41
Speaker 3: I think I'll get better value on as the week
39:42
Speaker 3: goes along.
39:44
Speaker 2: The Bucks are plus two right now against the Eagles.
39:47
Speaker 3: So this is Eagles on a back to back road
39:50
Speaker 3: after a huge emotional win against the Saints, playing against
39:53
Speaker 3: a Bucks team that just got embarrassed.
39:54
Speaker 2: I'm blown out.
39:55
Speaker 3: I mean, all the money's gonna come on the Eagles,
39:57
Speaker 3: right So I'm gonna wait see if I can get
40:01
Speaker 3: above a key number of plus two and a half
40:03
Speaker 3: plus three. But that's that's actually a really nice spot
40:06
Speaker 3: for the Eagles to have a letdown. So uh yeah,
40:10
Speaker 3: people don't don't be mad, but the Bucks, I can
40:13
Speaker 3: already tell that's gonna be a side Me and Chatter
40:15
Speaker 3: are most likely going to end up on.
40:16
Speaker 2: It's just they have they have had the Eagles number
40:20
Speaker 2: the last couple of years.
40:21
Speaker 3: And I know you can be like, well, in the playoffs,
40:23
Speaker 3: that was like the Eagles were just a totally different
40:25
Speaker 3: team and it was a Cason on hell. I totally
40:28
Speaker 3: get that position. I honestly think it's the coaching match.
40:31
Speaker 3: But Todd Bowles has just done well against Sirianni. He
40:34
Speaker 3: kind of knows what the Eagles want to do. So
40:36
Speaker 3: that's a number that I didn't want to give out
40:38
Speaker 3: on the show yet, but it's sometime I want people
40:40
Speaker 3: to be aware of that, Like, if this does get
40:42
Speaker 3: up to three, no, you should grab it right away
40:44
Speaker 3: because I'm definitely gonna grab it when it gets there.
40:46
Speaker 1: Well, look, we just don't know what this Eagles team
40:50
Speaker 1: is going to have.
40:51
Speaker 2: That's what I mean. They're so banged up.
40:52
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like, we just don't know at this point. All right,
40:56
Speaker 1: So the early lines that were sort of touching on
40:59
Speaker 1: Bear's my one, pat, what's that? Definitely Bears, Definitely Bears.
41:05
Speaker 1: Packer's minus two. You mentioned Cowboys minus five and a
41:08
Speaker 1: half at the meadow Lands on Thursday Night football.
41:11
Speaker 2: That's my biggest early bet right now.
41:14
Speaker 1: We're hedging right now like Baltimore two and a half,
41:20
Speaker 1: Jags plus four and a half, where I'm interested in Jags,
41:23
Speaker 1: You're interested in Baltimore depending on the outcome of the
41:27
Speaker 1: game on Monday night, and we're not betting it yet.
41:31
Speaker 1: We're hoping the number goes higher. We're hoping the number
41:34
Speaker 1: goes up to two and a half three the Bucks
41:37
Speaker 1: as underdogs against the Eagles. All right. As a reminder,
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