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Felix Prehn - Last Chance: Why I am Buying the DeepSeek Dip + Stock Market News 28 January 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this live stream.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: This morning and a day where markets are calming down, the Xanax has officially kicked in and things are not looking quite as horrifying and terrifying as yesterday.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: So I want to walk you through why the market panicked yesterday, what the actual facts are, what the opportunities are today and help you make the most of this opportunity, because this is a big juicy opportunity.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: The last time we had an opportunity like this was seven months ago I'd say Six or seven months ago, august and we made a lot of money out of that.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: So my goal is for you to make a lot of money out of this here.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Wasn't I the following financial advice?
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Just an old banker sharing his thoughts and his insights, and my aim is always to make you what smarter, better informed, better educated, so you can make smarter decisions on your own, and that you don't need me.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: That's really, ultimately the goal here.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: So let's jump straight into it.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: I'm going to share my screen with you here for everybody complaining about my drinking slurping, which has been quite a few of you quite fondly, I have put in some sort of thing which apparently removes the slurping sounds.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Can you still hear them?
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Can you still hear me slurping.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: Let me know in the chat.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Now Bernstein Bernstein analyst output out there they're basically saying what the heck went wrong yesterday.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: And they're saying what the heck went wrong yesterday.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: And they're saying the first thing is there's a misunderstanding over the $5 million number.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: So DeepSeek came out and said we built OpenAI chat GPT for $5 million.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Now what the press release over the weekend which is always a little suspicious, because if you want to like, you know, oh, love the slurps, no slurps, slurp free.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Terrible, isn't it?
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Um, no more asmr slurping from felix.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: But they didn't tell us that they had lots of models before this model and they paid for those separately.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: You see what I mean.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: It's a bit like me saying I don't know, there's some pomegranate juice which I absolutely love, which I got in Dubai.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: I could say this cost me only $3.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Now I could also include the return first class flights, 14 days in a five-star hotel and endless expenses related to it, in which case it would be more like a much larger sum.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: But if I withhold that, then this is a very cheap glass of pomegranate juice.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: If I include that, it becomes expensive.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: That seems to be a little bit what DeepSeq is doing here.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: It's a little sneaky, isn't it?
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: I like the slapping, it means he's live.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: I like the slapping, it means he's live.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Right, so no more ASMR on this channel.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: And so, basically, they're saying, look, they distilled this model down from a larger model which costs more to make.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Now the actual pricing is far below what OpenAI is asking.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: So they're selling it far, far cheaper, much more aggressively than OpenAI.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: And is that a good thing?
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Is that a bad thing?
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Well, unless you're open AI which you're not because it's privately held good thing for everybody else, why is it a good thing for everybody else?
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Well, does that make sense so far?
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: By the way, that makes sense so far.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: Put a thumbs up in the chat.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: These guys they spent over $200 billion last year.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: These guys who are spending they spent over 200 billion last year.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Slurp Filter works great.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: 200 billion they spent last year.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: This is Microsoft, this is Amazon, which is Oracle, which is Google, which is Meta.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: If they can run models cheaper, first thing, they could spend less on AI infrastructure.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: Right, thanks for the thumbs up there, max and Grivbo, and Kit and John Tangleman thanks very much.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: I'm glad it makes sense If these guys could get the same output run the same.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Models offer the same services, like Microsoft Copilot, which is popping up in my face every time I open bloody Microsoft Office.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: Models offer the same services like Microsoft Co-Pilot, which is popping up in my face every time I open bloody Microsoft Office, and I don't want it, but they're forcing a bit upon me.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: It's just the way they always do it, isn't it?
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: If these guys could spend not $200 billion or less than the $250 billion they are threatening to spend this year, what would that do?
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: What if they spend less money?
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: Well, if you're a microsoft, an amazon, an oracle, a google or a meta shareholder, it would mean what?
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: Higher profits, higher profit margins, because they spend less money on nvidia and have more money left over, which means more profit.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: Right, um, joe I, I love you for that.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: Thanks very much for sharing that.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: You said the wall street protocol, which is our sort of flagship stock coaching program, saved me a 21 000 loss in this market.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: The risk management guidance works.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: That's what it's all about.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: A word on that in a moment as well.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: But would you be upset if the company that you have shares in reports higher profits?
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Would you be upset?
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Tell me if you'd be upset.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Say yes in the chat, or write upset, or say no, I wouldn't be upset.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Let me know in the chat.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Make sure you actually have a heartbeat and a pulse and this is making sense to you.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: Gary loves Copilot.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: In all fairness, I haven't tried it, so I'm just you know.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: No, you wouldn't be upset.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: You wouldn't be upset.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: No, no, no, no, no, no, no.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: Okay, christopher, claudia, the Scottish guy, you're all saying no, right, you wouldn't be upset unless you're shorting.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Yes, okay, brilliant, so that's a good thing.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: So why would I be upset about you?
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: Okay, nvidia shelled us a little bit, but NVIDIA is recovering already this morning.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: What are we upset about here?
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Okay, nvidia shelled us a little bit, but NVIDIA is recovering already this morning.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: I'll show you just in a second, but let's dive a little bit deeper into this.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: Tom Lee calls this the worst NASDAQ overreaction since the 2020 pandemic outbreak and he says buy the freaking dip.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Dan Ives, another analyst, you can never get off the screen.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: I think that's what these guys all do all day long, isn't it?
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: They say it's a top three buying opportunity I've seen in a decade.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: The market got this one wrong.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: So he's saying buy Nvidia, buy Oracle and everything else, and we can't really do a video nowadays without the Donalds, because the Donald is active.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: That guy seems to be pretty hardworking.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: He's like the hardest working CEO out there.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: He is calling for Congress to abolish the income tax.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: In all seriousness, you got to give this a moment and then we go back to deep seek and everything else.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Because if you had no income tax, what would happen?
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: What would happen to you if you're American and you would pay no income tax?
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Would you have more money or would you have less money?
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: Let me make this really simple here, just so you understand it.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Is it more money or is it less money?
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Tell me in the chat.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Tell me in the chat.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: I want to know now.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Let's just assume you have more money, which is probably the conclusion you're coming to, right, as I can see it.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: I want to know Now, let's just assume you have more money, which is probably the conclusion you're coming to right, as I can see, you guys are coming to that conclusion.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: What would then happen?
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Well, what would you do?
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: You would spend more, or you would invest more, which is putting more money into a shares or property or some sort of asset, and what would therefore happen to companies and stocks.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Well, if you spend more, you're spending it on something that a company provides as a service usually right.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: Pretty much everything you buy is provided by companies More, more, more Exactly and if you invest more well, you're paying for those shares.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: So if this happens, do share prices go up or down?
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: Take this through man Share prices People are spending more on goods and services and people have more money to buy a share.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: You're creating demand at the consumption level and you're creating demand on the stock market level.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: Does that make share prices go up or go down?
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: What's the stock ticket for DeepSea?
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: You can't invest in a private owned by a Chinese hedge fund.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: Shares go up?
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly Now things will go up.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: So if this comes true, you're going to get the biggest freaking demand bull market the US has ever seen.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: And yeah, there'll be a little bit of inflation in year one.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: There'll be no inflation in additional in year two because tariffs are a one-time event.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: It doesn't get more and more expensive.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: It just becomes more expensive one time and then you're going to start buying more domestic stuff, which will also be good for the Americans.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: So it doesn't really rob in the long-term increased inflation.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: It's a one-time event, so for one time it creates inflation.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: 12 months later that inflation will be zero because it'll be the same as 12 months prior.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: So it's not really a long-term inflationary thing and therefore it isn't something that the Fed will need to raise interest rates for.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: Because they know it's a one-time thing, make no sense to raise interest rates as a result.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: So up bigly, exactly, says Scott and Logan.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Precisely, it'll be up, everything will be up bigly.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: And then look at yesterday.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: What is this?
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: These are retail.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: That's you and me.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: You know us independent Muppets.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: And what did we buy yesterday?
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: What did we sell yesterday?
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: See how much retail was buying yesterday versus how little it was selling yesterday, yesterday versus how little it was selling yesterday.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: So retail is on the money to buy the fricking dip, and they did it yesterday, and I'm rather proud of retail for doing this.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: To be honest with you, the pen says I can't use it anymore.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: There's Microsoft's good work.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: So the only question then is that you probably had yesterday and yesterday.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: If I look at the poll here, I asked you if you're honest with yourself, did yesterday spook you or did you feel a little uneasy?
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: And 57% of you answered that honestly and said you felt a little uneasy, right, because that's natural.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: It's normal to feel a little uneasy when the market goes down.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: So the question really, on days like yesterday and like today is like, well, what do I buy, how do I know what to buy and how do I know what I close on a day like yesterday and what do I hold on to?
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: And most people haven't really got a process.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: But if you have that answer before a day like yesterday happens, it'll happen again.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: It'll happen in about six months again, guarantee you, because it happens without regularity.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: The market tanks 30% once every decade, every 10 years, 30%, right, and there are much bigger crashes.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: We have 60, 70% crashes and those are normal to happen and they could happen tomorrow, something weird happening.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: So if you are not prepared for that, you're doing what?
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: You are going to get freaked out, you're going to get scared, you're going to do things that are not ideal and, most importantly, you're going to miss out on opportunities.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Right, there are always opportunities.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: If you watched me yesterday live, you know we sold some put options, for example, on SoFi, which I thought was a good idea.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: We'll know whether that is or not, but you know whether that's a brilliant.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: I think it's a brilliant.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: I think it's a brilliant choice.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: But well, you know the market will tell me.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: But you know we can spot these opportunities by understanding volatility was high, fear was high.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: That makes options expensive.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: So my first thought is let's have options on something that got unfairly pummeled today, on good earnings.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: So there is always an opportunity.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: So if you know that opportunity, will you make more money or less money?
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: If you make more money, put a one in the chat.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: If you make less money because you have more knowledge, then put a two in the chat.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: Let me see it.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: Put a one in the chat if you think more knowledge brings you more opportunity.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: And Mike, sharing yesterday in Reinforce need to set up, stop losses.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Okay, kit says one.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: Arif says one.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: I'm Andy says one.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: Eileen, john, griff, beau, mr Proper, jason Okay, it's going to get a little quick now.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, okay, I love you guys for that.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: Thanks for participating, thanks for showing me that you are here and you're listening and not just sort of background noise.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: So what I said to you yesterday and I'll say to you again if you want to learn from people who've done this for decades, you can learn from my mentors because that's how I learned and we give you unlimited one-on-one coaching.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: You just hop on Zoom calls one-on-one on days like yesterday.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: You know how busy our mentors were yesterday.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: They were on calls back-to-back.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: We were running special group live sessions to make sure people are calm and collected and they know what to do and they know how to grab the opportunity.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: So if you are interested in possibly being mentored there is zero pressure here, it's just a you you're curious, find out more, type thing.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: Then you can book a call directly, without any hoops to jump through, at felix friends, at org slash freedom because I want you to get to freedom, financial freedom and life freedom and you can have a chat with my guys and and they are basically they're lovely and and our mentors team are investment bankers, hedge fund guys.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: We have three retired market makers, you know it, people who've really managed a lot of money hundreds of millions and billions of dollars for big institutions, for big banks, for big hedge funds, worked on the trading floor and stock exchanges, and therefore know what to do, because they've been through crashes that are way worse than this one we've just seen.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: You know, 2008, 2007, 1990, what was it?
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: Six?
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: Was it?
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: Crashes that are way worse than way, way worse than this one.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: We've just seen um.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: You know 2008, 2007, 1990, what was it?
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: Six, was it?
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: I can't remember um.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: You know those are the people I turn to when I want help, so have a chat with us if you like, felix, friends at org slash freedom, and let me run you through why.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: Yesterday was also a calm day.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: Financials, that's banks and mortgage companies and so on.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: They closed yesterday at an all-time high.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: We have some financial trades open.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: They actually did well yesterday, 22 out of the Dow Jones stocks closed higher.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: Transport stocks closed higher.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: The Dow Jones is only 1% below its all-time high.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: Apple had its best day in four months.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: Amazon is at an all-time high and 349 out of the S&P 500 stocks 349 out of 500 stocks closed higher yesterday.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: Is that bad news?
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: Is that good news?
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: Let me know in the chat each one of these.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: Is that good news or bad news?
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: Put good or bad in the chat?
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: Momentum overall is up 7% so far this year.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: Small caps outperformed, mid caps outperformed.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: So is that good or is that sign of a disastrous market crash?
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: No-transcript.