Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Gold Just Had Its Worst Week Since 1982. Here's Why That's Bullish For Bitcoin | Bitcoin Simply

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Gold Just Had Its Worst Week Since 1982. Here's Why That's Bullish For Bitcoin | Bitcoin Simply · Simply Bitcoin

0:00
Things continue to escalate in the Middle East.
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Trump just threatened to obliterate Iran's power plants
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if the Strait of Hormuz isn't open in 48 hours.
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Iran responded by threatening to attack US energy infrastructure
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across the Gulf. Oil prices are spiking, US
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warships are being deployed, and energy refineries are burning.
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And in the middle of all this chaos, gold, the world's safe
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haven asset for the last 5000 years, just had its worst week
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since 1982. It's down over $500 in just five
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days. That's not a dip.
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Peter Schiff that's a collapse. And here's what nobody on
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financial TV is asking. If gold can hold a bid while the
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world is literally at war, then what does that tell us about
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where money is actually going? Because at the same time, the
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gold has been crashing since the Iran war started.
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Bitcoin is held stable AT70K. Bitcoins lack of explosive
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growth makes sense. Gold's does not.
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And understanding that difference might be the most
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important thing you can understand right now.
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This is Dante Coco Bitcoin. Simply let's go.
0:59
Let me put this in perspective for you.
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Every major gold crash in history has happened for a
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fundamental reason. 1982 the Fed hiked interest rates to 20% to
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kill inflation. It was a tightening cycle that
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led to dollar strengthening, which obviously her goal. 2013
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the Fed signaled tapering. The easy money from the great
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financial crisis was over, which was bears for gold and gold
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crashed. In 2022, the Fed aggressively
1:23
hiked rates. The real yields surged, which
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was bad for gold. Now to March of 2026 wars
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escalating in the Middle East. Trump is threatening to
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obliterate a sovereign nation's infrastructure.
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Iran is threatening to shut down one of the most important
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shipping lanes in the world, and 20% of the world's oil supply is
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hanging by a thread. Inflation forecasts are rising.
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U.S. Federal debt just crossed $39
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trillion for the first time, up 2 trillion in eight months.
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Every single one of those signals is textbook bullish for
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gold. And yet, gold just had its worst
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week since 1982. There were $6.3 billion in
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outflows of gold ETFs in March alone, the single most in a
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month since 2013. Three consecutive weeks of
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declining holdings. 62 tons of gold vanished.
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All gains from 2026 out the window.
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So what's actually happening? Well, there's only two
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explanations. Either something is deeply
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broken in the gold market, or the world's assets are actually
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starting to rotate. I think it's both.
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Gold isn't the only thing selling off.
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Equities are under pressure and the whole market looks like it's
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starting to crack. Which leads to the point people
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aren't selling gold because they don't believe in it, they're
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selling it because they need cash.
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And it might be because private credit is starting to crack and
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there's been actually zero job growth.
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The thing that I think good number of people on the
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committee are concerned about is just the very, very low level of
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job creation. If you, if you adjust what has
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been the trend job creation over the past let's say six months.
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If you adjust that for what we think our staff thinks is the,
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the overstatement due to overcounting, effectively
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there's zero net job creation in the private sector.
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But actually that looks like that's about what the economy
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needs in terms of of dealing with very, very low non existent
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really growth in the labor force, which of course we've
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never had in our in our history. So you've got a sort of a 0
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employment growth equilibrium. Now that's that's balance, OK.
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But you know, I would say it does have a feel of downside
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risk and it's not kind of a really comfortable balance.
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Businesses can't accept capital, consumers are stretched and the
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government has one move left. You still need a 10 year plan to
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figure out how to beat inflation and survive in a multi polar
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world. And the only thing I know about
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that is hard assets. You know, physical assets, the
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next crisis is a self custody play.
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Definitely custodians versus self custody.
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That's what goes wrong. You know, there's many different
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theories on that. The only strategy is the big
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print in the West, you know, a Larry Leopard who wrote a book
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on that. Like, yeah, there'll there'll be
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a bigger print than COVID. It's the only strategy.
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There's no other thing. There's no way around that.
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And everyone needs to just understand the fixed assets is
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the way to solve that. And we enter into a world where
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your government might confiscate your assets or they might tax
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your assets in order to stop you from leaving.
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And so everyone just needs to work on the sovereign side.
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That's solvable. And you need a 10 year plan to
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do that and you need to start today.
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You know, don't say it's too late.
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It's not too late. You know you need it.
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You need 10 years to to really plan for that.
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There's no other strategy. The only path forward is the big
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print. This is exactly what's laid out
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in Larry Laparde's book Right Behind Me.
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And when this happens, this presents a great opportunity to
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buy hard assets. People sell what they can sell
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in these times, not what they want to sell.
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And this structural setup looks really good.
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For Bitcoin, So since the war started, Bitcoin is I think the
5:01
best performing asset, by a good amount too.
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Gold is now falling sharply, and I think it's down 8 or 9% since
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the beginning of the war, and Bitcoin is up five to six since
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the beginning, which is an interesting dynamic on itself.
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Now, I said it last week, I'll say it again.
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Some of this is just mean reversion, meaning gold had
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outperformed significantly. But I do think there's a couple
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things going on with inside the Middle East.
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You've got the UAE focused on liquidity for the banking
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system, so they're already having to pump money into the
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system. We do have an inflation issue
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that has picked up, and even though gold is a good
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theoretically inflation hedge, not if it means rate cuts are
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going from zero to up. Bitcoin already discounted this,
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so it already got ahead of it. If we're going to have a
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recession and private credit is going to become a bigger issue,
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then I'm going to go back to my thesis for Bitcoin, which is
5:56
they're going to have to do something to provide liquidity
5:58
to the system. If you can't get the oil price
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down, I hate to say it, guys, but if private credit is
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worsening, they're going to have to do something for private
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credit. I wrote about it last week.
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I'll say it again. This is my belief that the 1970s
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are the most important thing for Bitcoin.
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Not in the fact that inflation in the 1970s was was high.
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We all know that CPI got up to higher levels than in 2022, then
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it came down, then it went higher again, then kind of went
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sideways. It just never died.
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We could be in a three-year period where now that oil prices
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are no longer sitting there and I think we're in a commodity
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bull market when we could have headline inflation stay high,
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core inflation for services could come down because of the
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deflationary pressures on AI. The deflationary pressures on AI
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are crushing software and they're crushing anything built
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on code. And like I've said, if you at
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the end of this year sitting there and you realize that the
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S&P 500 was unchanged or down slightly.
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And next year there's not a lot of hope for anything changing
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because we're still in a commodity bull market.
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And people are like, what's going on here?
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We've we've got a credit problem, we've got this.
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Then all of a sudden people are looking for growth assets and
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they look around and I think Bitcoin will be the best
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performing asset this year when you put it in the growth bucket.
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And if that's the case, we already have the momentum.
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So I'm going to keep pounding the table that the best thing
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for Bitcoin is a continuing credit problem, which I don't
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think can be resolved on itself. And at the same point, having a
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commodity bear a bull market which is based on scarcity and
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then a shorting of abundance which is based on these growth
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assets, if all of that plays in. Bitcoin's like uniquely.
7:36
Positioned. It's uniquely positioned.
7:38
Here's one of the most bullish signals in Bitcoin that's
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happening that no one is talking about right now.
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Bitcoin mining difficulty just dropped 7.76%.
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Miners are feeling the squeeze. When the price drops, less
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efficient miners have to go off the network.
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They can't cover their electricity costs and they shut
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down. And here's why.
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This is bullish. When those weak miners exit, the
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network's self correct, remaining miners become more
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profitable, and miners are typically the strongest hands in
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Bitcoin. We've seen this set up before
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whenever mining difficulty drops this fast, this hard and this
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sharply, it typically marks a point in Bitcoin where we're
8:11
near a bottom. The accumulators are still
8:13
continuing to accumulate. Are you still bullish on
8:16
Bitcoin? That's the question of the week
8:18
and according to our polls, the answers in the data quick break
8:20
to talk about something important.
8:22
If you've been stacking Bitcoin for any amount of time, you know
8:24
the biggest mistake that you can make in your Bitcoin journey is
8:27
selling because you have to. Instead of selling, have you
8:30
ever considered borrowing against your Bitcoin stack?
8:32
That's what led an exist to do provide Bitcoin backed loans,
8:35
keep your Bitcoin while accessing the liquidity that you
8:38
need. No selling, no tax event, just
8:40
using your Bitcoin as collateral.
8:42
In a world, a macro world where things are uncertain, the last
8:46
thing you want to do is sell your hardest asset to cover a
8:48
short term need go to learn dot Lennon dot AO slash simply to
8:52
get started. Let's go back to this oldie but
8:54
goodie from the last time that the US dollar was weaponized
8:58
against another country. Vladimir Putin, the leader of
9:01
Russia, a country who has been sanctioned, kept out of the
9:04
global financial system and had their assets frozen on SWIFT,
9:06
had this to say about Bitcoin in times of calamity.
9:10
Now, Bitcoin too much is a pretty.
9:14
I suppose when you drug electronic electronic serious
9:25
too much is a pretty. Who can ban Bitcoin?
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He says. Nobody let that sink in.
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Bitcoin is the only asset that nobody can shut off.
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You can shut off the straight of her must.
9:44
You cannot stop Bitcoin. Iran is living that reality
9:47
right now with their own financial system, and the rest
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of the world is watching. They're all asking the same
9:51
question. What's the one asset that nobody
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can ban? And though gold is unbannable,
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why are people selling right now?
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A drop that large, that fast, has only happened once in almost
10:03
45 years. The answer is the same as when
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Satoshi released the white paper.
10:06
Bitcoin is the only asset that cannot be banned, and that's why
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it's underpriced. Gold is heavily overvalued, the
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stock market is heavily overvalued, but Bitcoin is very
10:16
attractive at these prices. And and so now I don't know how
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much money necessarily is now chasing like this attractive
10:25
investment, you know, because it also feels risky.
10:27
We had some of the quantum strats, there's some
10:31
uncertainty, you know, and then we have all these conflict and
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then gold is actually performing very well.
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Bitcoin is not. And so, so a bit of loss of
10:39
confidence, like, oh, is Bitcoin really going to do what it's
10:42
going to do? But if you really look at the
10:44
fundamentals, Bitcoin is actually exactly doing what it's
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going to do. And so I'm, I'm super optimistic
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actually about Bitcoin, right? Like, OK, I'm, I'm, I'm
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pessimistic about the next couple of months.
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Not I mean, I, I, I even think we don't necessarily have to get
10:58
that, that like lag down. As I said, there's passive
11:01
flows. And so maybe we don't.
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And also the, the, the reason the business cycle it has a bit
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of is extending. Maybe that also will have an
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impact on Bitcoin and we'll bottom early or this was already
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the bottom and we started gradually moving up.
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But if we look at the on chain charts and for example in this
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one, we see such a similarity to previous bear markets.
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You know, we see these red lines like the amount of short model
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profits which is shown here. You know, we it's, it's hard to
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neglect like it looks exactly like a bear market would.
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And, and so, yeah, for me unfortunately also then the
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probability is the highest that will continue exactly as how a
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bear market usually has functioned in the past.
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And, and, and yeah, doesn't sound that attractive, but I
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think it's a, it's also a big opportunity because, you know,
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we basically have another few months of checking extremely
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cheap sads and Bitcoin will turn around again.
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I mean, we're Bitcoin is not going to 0.
12:00
It's literally the only hope we have on a better future for
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humanity and, and to even live in peace with AI and, and to be
12:07
all you know, and, and so I think it's, it's, it's so it's,
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it's Bitcoin is already heavily undervalued.
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In my, in my opinion, Bitcoin is worth, you know, much more than
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two 100K and, and, and, and probably will go into the
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millions. But but yeah, we have to move
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through this phase. I mean, hype is gone.
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We have seen this every cycle, you know, Bitcoin has to form a
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bottom. That takes time.
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There's a time factor to this and that's so it will take a
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couple of months and but yeah, those months are an opportunity
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as well. Last thing about liquidity and
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where it could be rotating from and why Bitcoin is holding
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steady. It's rotating out of gold that
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we know, but it also could start to rotate out of AI and data
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center open. AI data center pivot this week
12:48
sparked a lot of concern. This is exactly what Jordy
12:51
Visser and Arthur Haze have been talking about.
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AI supposedly destroying every mount of every business.
12:57
But what if the AI models themselves are actually
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commodity? All that capital that's being
13:01
poured into AI, the data center backs, the GPU's that are being
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put into those data centers, the hyperscaler spending unlimited
13:09
amounts of capital. What if that flow starts to
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dwindle? It has to find a new home.
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It will not disappear. It will simply rotate into other
13:18
hard assets, assets that cannot be commoditized.
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Bitcoin is scarce, neutral, and impervious to AI disruption.
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People are going to find that out sooner than later.
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When the AI trade matures, it's showing that it's not going to
13:31
flow into gold, but into the asset of the future.
13:33
Before we close, here's a quick reminder.
13:35
If you're going to own Bitcoin in this environment, you need to
13:37
actually control the Bitcoin, not outsource it to banks or
13:40
somebody else who says trust me bro, I have your Bitcoin.
13:43
Self custody. That's where the Bitcoin way
13:46
comes in. They help individuals learn how
13:48
to store and secure their own Bitcoin.
13:51
No exchanges, no third parties, just you and your keys.
13:54
Visit thebitcoinway.com/partner/dante
13:58
Dante Dash Cook to get started. Let me bring this full circle.
14:01
Gold just had its worst week since 1982, not because the
14:04
macro environment turned bearish, but it turned chaotic.
14:07
Every single that should have sent gold at 6000 sent it down
14:10
to 4400. the US is $39 trillion in debt right now, and the only
14:15
thing that's going to solve it is printing more money.
14:17
Austerity is not an option. There's going to be unlimited
14:20
demand for an asset that no government can freeze and no
14:23
government can ban. As Putin says, no one can ban
14:25
it. As Sailor says, it's at a 99%
14:27
discount. The data says miners are
14:29
capitulating, but individuals are continuing to stack.
14:33
The world is chaotic right now, but that's the actual story that
14:36
Bitcoin was born out of. The question isn't whether
14:38
Bitcoin survives. The question is whether you are
14:40
positioned to capture the rotation out of gold into a firm
14:44
and safer store value for the future, which is Bitcoin.
14:47
This is Dante Coco Bitcoin simply and if you want to do
14:50
more than just hold Bitcoin, this is a great time to get into
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