Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 11 - 3/28/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 11 - 3/28/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 11 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:24
Betting Podcast Powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:34
Happy Thirsty Thursday. Happy return of March Madness.
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I got a couple plays in March Madness for you guys for
0:41
tonight. We also have a NHL bet that I'm
0:43
excited to share with you. But most importantly, guys,
0:46
baseball is back. Take Me Out to the ball game.
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Take Me Out to the crowd. Buy me some peanuts and Cracker
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Jacks. I don't care if I ever get back.
1:02
So let's root, root, root for the home team.
1:05
If they don't win, it's a shame for it's 123 strikes.
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You're out at the old ball game, MLB, baby.
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I know, probably, probably made your ears bleed with my terrible
1:19
singing there, but it is a great day.
1:20
It's Opening Day, even though my Red Sox look to have a very long
1:24
season because they didn't spend any money and the win total fell
1:26
from 80 1/2 to 77 1/2. Either way, there's something
1:30
special about Opening Day, especially when it comes to
1:32
betting on Major League Baseball, because Major League
1:35
Baseball is unlike any other sport from the sheer standpoint
1:38
of so many games in such a long season.
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So whole point being don't expect that we're going to
1:43
become MLB experts on today's pod but I do have two Major
1:47
League Baseball bets for you to start off the season.
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So I want to touch on some MLB just some just basic thoughts to
1:53
get us started. Our basic approach when it comes
1:56
to betting Major League Baseball some tips and strategies.
1:59
I had a a great listener to the pod reach out.
2:02
Mike Legend, my guy and he was saying hey, have you gone over
2:04
your systems for MLB yet? I said no.
2:06
We obviously talked about win totals for a win total
2:09
Wednesday. Have a bunch of bets here in
2:12
pocket. If you want to go over
2:13
yesterday's pod, you can get an update on all those the six
2:16
futures bets that I've gotten down on.
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But I want to kind of map out our MLB model.
2:21
And also remember that, you know, Major League Baseball,
2:22
it's such a long year that we're going to kind of, you know, be a
2:25
little bit disciplined at at the beginning.
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You know, obviously there's so many games today.
2:29
Doesn't mean we're going to bet on every single one.
2:31
But to me, baseball's a season where we're going to bet it all
2:33
year long and there's going to be ups and downs because it's
2:36
such a huge sample size each day.
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But each day we're going to get sharper and we're going to look
2:40
at matchups and and ways to exploit the betting market.
2:43
So I want to talk about MLB. Obviously we have Sweet 16
2:47
coming back. I also want to mention that
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there is a really cool thing that we're doing again today,
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the Sweet 16 live stream. Myself and my buddy James
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Santor, we did one for the opening round of March Madness
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and got up to 1400 people tuning into the live stream.
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So we did it again or we're going to do it again today.
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So right when this pod drops, I may want to pause the pod.
3:06
Or, you know, I don't know if you can listen to both at the
3:08
same time, but from 3:30 PM Eastern Time to 4:30 PM Eastern
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Time, James and myself are going to do a Sweet 16 live stream on
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Twitter. So love for you guys to tune in.
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We're going to go through all the games.
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I'm going to give you my take on all the games, and James is
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going to give you what the rhythm app is showing in terms
3:25
of an edge. We're going to answer some
3:26
questions. We're going to have some fun.
3:28
So before you tune into live stream again, which will be on
3:31
Twitter, you can just follow myself at Josh under score
3:34
Insights or the ASG Podcast. Rhythm will promote it, as well
3:38
as James Santor. He's at James Santor on Twitter.
3:42
But we're breaking on all those games and I want to first have
3:45
you guys, you know, be ready to go when the live stream starts.
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So if you haven't done it yet, just go sign up for that bet.
3:51
Rhythm or the rhythm app. I should say Rhythm, who
3:54
sponsors and powers this pod and they have a great kind of AI
3:58
back model for different sports, different models, looking at
4:01
prop bets with the biggest edge, looking at game bets, whether
4:04
it's side total, whatever the case may be.
4:07
But you want to have that you know, app in your hand
4:09
downloaded so that once we start talking about the games you can
4:12
pull up the the system matches. So if you haven't done it yet,
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all you have to do is go to my Twitter page at Josh under score
4:17
Insights. I tweeted out a picture, a
4:20
little promo for today's live stream.
4:22
At the bottom of that tweet there is a link rhythm dot page
4:25
dot link slash custom. Click that link.
4:27
Get that 7 day free trial of the Rhythm app so that when we do
4:31
the live stream today at 3:30 PM Eastern Time, you will be ready
4:34
to go. So got a lot of that you know,
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kind of you know, I guess you know homework or everything out
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of the way. First here a little
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housekeeping. Looking back toward yesterday
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guys, How about another winning night?
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We'll take it 4 and 2 + 1.6 units for our All Systems Go
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podcast plays. Had a great hit in the Seattle
4:53
high point under for the championship game under one
4:56
fifty 49149 1/2. Now I thought that was going to
5:00
be a rocking chair winner in the first half.
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I think they only scored like 50 points.
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They scored 92 points in the second-half so they made us
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sweat. There late we should have had to
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sweat but we did get that under Championship tired Legs Under
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came through for the team. Tampa Bay Lightning came through
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against my Boston Bruins even though it killed me to bet
5:16
against my bees. Tampa Bay was that favorite
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versus A-Team on the second leg. Go back-to-back.
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So the Lightning came through. Had a good night in the NBA.
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We hit our Hawks over 217. We got our Magic and Golden
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State under 218 1/2. The losers were the Nets under
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220 1/2. The game went to overtime so a
5:33
little bad luck there and then Drake Batherson could have.
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We could have had a five and one night with even more plus money.
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But Batherson over 2 1/2 shots on goal.
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He ended with two and he had two going into the third period.
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I'm like OK, one more, that's all we need.
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He didn't have any so unfortunately couldn't get
5:48
Batherson. But either way guys, second
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straight winning day. We're going to hopefully turn
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that into a third straight winning day on today's pod after
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a 4 and 2 + 1.6 unit night. So with that being said, let's
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dive right into our sweats guys, because it is a great day to bet
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on sports. Baseball's back.
6:04
March Madness is back. We still got NBANHL and as I
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mentioned, I have a 5 pack of sweats for you today.
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Maybe I didn't officially say it, but A5 Pack 2 College
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basketball, 2 MLB, one NHL. But let's start with college
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basketball because they obviously is the return of March
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Madness. And I wrote up kind of my
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breakdowns and thoughts on all four games for beeson.com.
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So you can check that out for my Twitter page at Josh under score
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Insights. But I'm going to give you kind
6:29
of my official bets here and I'm going to give you a couple
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comments on some of these other games, but some official bets
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for me first one tonight. And by the way, guys, I just
6:36
want to preface this by saying, you know, we had a good start to
6:39
the madness. You know, the first, the opening
6:41
round, round two was about as bad as it gets.
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Remember we had all those chalk favorites cover all the obvious
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public plays, ran the table money line parlays, just taking
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all the better teams, better seeds, if you remember and we
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don't even want to remember. I want to put this in the past
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and never, never remember it ever again because it was so
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brutal. But I think it was 15 and one
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favorite straight up in round two.
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Now that we're Sweet 16, my question here is, do we get that
7:06
regression that we're hoping for?
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I would find it hard to believe that these, you know, obvious
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favorites laying nine points, getting 80% of bets continue to
7:13
cover. I hope not.
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But remember, the public just had one of their best rounds in
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March Madness ever. This is also, unfortunately, one
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of the chalkiest, if you're contrarian, better like me or
7:22
like many of you. It's been an awful start to
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March Madness because of all these public plays coming
7:27
through. But again, the public says this
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betting thing, it's pretty easy. Take the the great teams laying
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points. They'll just, you know, roll and
7:33
win in a win in a landslide and cover the number.
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But no, it's not that easy. So Long story short, my hope is
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that hey, we start to see some aggression.
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Some of these contrarian plays come through, some of these
7:43
sharp moves come through and hopefully these chalk public
7:46
plays get taken in the woodshed, which they should be because
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that was absolutely brutal in round two.
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So anyway, just want to preface that by saying, hey, can we get
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some regression to sharp contrarian line moves here?
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But two bets for me. First one that I'm super high
7:58
on. It's my favorite bet of the
7:59
night. It doesn't mean I'm betting 5
8:01
units on it. It's one unit like any other bet
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that I'm making. But I'm excited about this one.
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Illinois and Iowa State. So this is your late game.
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This is a 10:00 game. It's going to be played at the
8:12
TTD Garden in Boston, MA. So maybe I should get some
8:15
tickets and see if I can get into this one tonight.
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But Long story short guys, I'm going to go with Illinois in the
8:19
points. So I'm looking at Illinois.
8:21
I got them plus 1 1/2. You know we can shop around and
8:24
maybe hold out for A2, but the more I'm looking at it, this
8:27
thing may be getting down even further toward Illinois.
8:29
But Illinois really checks off quite a few boxes for me.
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So on the one hand, public is split down the middle, Illinois
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and Iowa State. Some background here guys.
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Illinois is the three seed member.
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They rolled Duquesne 8963 in the second round.
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Iowa State is the two seed just brushed aside.
8:43
Washington State 6756 in the second round.
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But why do I like Illinois here? Well, they're just a blueprint
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play. Basically the public is split
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down the middle. Slight, slight majority on Iowa
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State. Iowa State is getting 52% of
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spread bets. However, in a vacuum,
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theoretically if the tickets are even, the line shouldn't move at
9:00
all. So basically it's 5050 on the
9:02
spread. Public doesn't know whether to
9:03
take the points or lay them. But what is the line done?
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The lines move toward Illinois. This game open Iowa State -2
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1/2. Now it's down to Iowa State -1
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1/2. Why is the line falling toward
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toward Illinois and away from Iowa State?
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If basically the tickets are down the middle, you would think
9:20
in a vacuum, no reason to adjust the number.
9:22
Because the tickets are split, however, not all action is
9:25
created equally. You have $5 average Joe Betts.
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You have dime wagers from respected betters.
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Even though the the spread ticket count, raw ticket count
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is down the middle, you're actually getting more money on
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Illinois. Illinois is only getting 48% of
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bets but 61% of dollars and the line is moving toward Illinois.
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So you have a 5050 line move, 5050 line shouldn't move at all
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yet it is going to Illinois and we have a low bets, higher
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dollar bet split in favor of Illinois.
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Then here's the other thing. Ken Palm has Iowa State winning,
9:53
but just by one point he's got him winning 76 to 75.
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So if we can still get that hook on the plus 1 1/2, I don't know
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if we're going to get like, my thought process here was maybe
10:02
Iowa State gets a lot of public love late.
10:04
It comes back up to two, we can get Illinois +2, but I don't
10:07
know if that's going to happen. If anything, maybe it's getting
10:09
back down to one or going toward one, which is a good sign toward
10:12
Illinois. So I'm going to take the plus 1
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1/2. I'm not going to get greedy
10:15
looking out for A2 and then it maybe never comes and it's down
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to one and I missed the hook. So let's go plus 1 1/2 here with
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Illinois. Ken Pumps only got him losing by
10:23
one. So the hook there is a
10:24
actionable value play. And also this is really
10:27
interesting because it's going to be a contrast in two styles.
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Iowa State is the number one defensive efficiency team.
10:33
Illinois is the number one offensive efficient efficiency
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team. So I want to bank on the offense
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of Illinois, hopefully coming through here first in the
10:40
country versus 48th for Iowa State.
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Better effective field goal percentage, 54% versus 52%.
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Better free throw shooting could be crucial.
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In A1 possession game, 74% versus 70%.
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So we have tickets down the middle but more money on
10:55
Illinois. The lines going toward Illinois
10:57
and Ken Palm only as in losing by 1:00 I'm going to go with the
10:59
the better offense here with the sharp line move.
11:02
Give me Illinois plus 1 1/2. Let's go a line I second bet of
11:07
the night for me and I'll give you just a couple takes on these
11:10
other games because they're interesting and I had kind of
11:12
liens. But yeah I wanted to kind of be
11:14
disciplined and and really go with the sharpest bets on the
11:16
board. So anyway, Alabama and UNC big
11:20
match up here another late one, 9:30 PM Eastern Time tonight.
11:23
Now, this one is interesting little background here.
11:26
Alabama is the four seed that just beat Grand Canyon 72 to 61
11:30
in round two. UNC, the one seed beat Michigan
11:33
State 85 to 69 in the second round.
11:35
Don't remind me, I had Michigan State in the points.
11:37
They're just teased me as they're up big early and then
11:39
got completely rolled. But anyway, this one's
11:42
intriguing to me for one basic reason in particular or I guess
11:45
two basic reasons. But the first one is that this
11:48
is the most lopsided game of the night.
11:50
Currently you are getting 81% of spread bets on North Carolina.
11:54
So this is the only team tonight getting 80% of bets or more.
11:58
Remember, we're coming off around where these 81% teams
12:01
actually did cover. But if you continuously long
12:04
term take teams getting 81%, believe me, you're going to be a
12:07
big loser long term. So this is your number one
12:09
public play toward UNC, which flip it the other way, this is
12:12
your #1 contrarian play of the night to take Alabama and the
12:16
points. That's what I'm doing.
12:16
I'm going Bama here guys. Now what I like about Alabama,
12:21
not just a straight up contrarian play, you know, 930
12:24
game, extremely heavily Bet everybody and their mother on
12:26
UNC. Therefore I want to be on Bama.
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But it's also kind of a line freeze ish.
12:31
Now it has moved a little bit. North Carolina open -4, they're
12:35
now up to -4 1/2 and I'm wondering if it gets to five.
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So that's one thing that I'm keeping my eye out for.
12:42
Like, I'm holding out for Alabama plus five because at
12:46
this point, you know, at 5 it becomes an inflated line
12:49
contrarian play. But here's where it also gets
12:51
good. Ken Palm.
12:53
Ken Palm actually has what's he got here.
12:55
He has UNC winning by two. So if UNC is the most popular
12:59
bet of the night, public says, hey, UNC is going to roll.
13:02
Maybe they will. I hope they won't.
13:05
But they see an obvious play with UNC laying the points yet
13:08
it hasn't moved a lot, 4 to 4, 1/2 maybe it's going to five.
13:11
I mean it's not like you open at 4:00 and it's at -7 now, but
13:15
with Ken Palm projecting A2 point win by UNC if we're
13:18
holding out for a four or we can get a 4 1/2.
13:21
But if we hold out for A5, like that's my angle Try to get the
13:23
+5 with bam, I see one book that is at 5 some some are juiced up
13:28
like UNC -4 1/2 -, 115. So you could buy it up to five.
13:32
You may want to wait. It's a late game, see if we get
13:34
5 just naturally by waiting. So not going to call Alabama a
13:37
sharp play tonight, but it's your number one contrarian play.
13:40
If we're getting a + 5, Ken Palm has him losing by two.
13:43
That's three points of actual value.
13:45
Then the last thing is a dog who can score.
13:48
Alabama is a very fast pace and really good offense.
13:51
We know that about them. But they had the better
13:54
offensive efficiency. 4th in the country versus 17th for the Tar
13:57
Heels. Better effective field goal
13:59
percentage, 56% versus 52%. Better three-point shooting, 37%
14:04
versus 36%. Better free throw shooting, 78%
14:09
versus 76% and better offensive rebound percentage, 35% versus
14:13
33%. So we have a lot of offensive
14:16
advantages for Alabama. Now, Alabama doesn't play great
14:18
defense. That's something that worries
14:20
you. But I'm going to go with Bama
14:22
here in the points. Again, I'm holding out for A5.
14:24
If not, I'll go 4 1/2. But I think the five will be
14:27
available here before the game starts and it's the number one
14:30
contrarian play. Ken, palm edge and a dog who can
14:32
score system match. Again, if you're a dog in a
14:34
spread sport, you want to be able to put up enough points to
14:37
keep pace or backdoor cover. So you got it all up here, guys.
14:40
I'm going Bama plus five with Illinois plus 1 1/2.
14:45
Now I wanted to give you just a comment on a couple of these
14:47
other games. Clemson and Arizona is
14:50
interesting to me. I have a lot of people I
14:52
respect, colleagues, especially at Beeson, who like Clemson in
14:56
the points to me. I'm laying off because if
14:59
anything, Arizona kind of looks sharp to me.
15:01
Arizona open -6 1/2, they're up to -7 even though a majority of
15:05
bets are on Clemson. So Clemson looks kind of like a
15:07
trendy dog. They're getting 65% of bets but
15:10
yet the Lions going to Arizona -6 and half up to -7.
15:13
Now Ken Palm has Arizona winning by 6.
15:15
So again to me this is a toss up like looks like a lot of wise
15:18
guys like Arizona -6 1/2 and anytime this line got to 7 1/2
15:22
it came back down. So maybe there's some buyback.
15:24
Clemson 7 1/2 and again, Ken Palm's got a six point game, but
15:27
if anything, I'm not taking Clemson because they look like a
15:30
trendy dog to me, so I'm not touching that game now.
15:33
San Diego State, Connecticut. This one's intriguing because if
15:36
you look at the betting market, looks like laying the points
15:38
with Connecticut is probably the play.
15:40
You know, Connecticut open -10, 1/2, they're up to -11 1/2 now.
15:45
They're up to 12 at some shops. So this line is moving pretty
15:48
good toward Connecticut. Now Connecticut is getting 70%
15:51
of bets, 80% of money. The other angle here is that
15:54
this game will be played at the TD Garden in Boston, you know,
15:57
in my neck of the woods. And that's only about an hour
15:59
and a half drive from stores. Connecticut where UConn plays,
16:02
San Diego State obviously is going cross country.
16:04
So I think it's going to be a big UConn crowd.
16:07
Like I was actually at the BET MGM, Springfield and
16:09
Springfield, MA over the weekend and when the UConn game was on,
16:12
that was the loudest. I heard the sports book because
16:14
there are a lot of UConn fans. So Connecticut probably is going
16:16
to get that homecourt boost. The one thing that trips me up
16:19
though is that Ken Palm has Connecticut winning only by
16:22
eight points. So if we're laying at 12 now at
16:25
this point, Ken Palm's got an 8. I mean you could say San Diego
16:29
State would be a hold your nose contrarian, take the 12, you
16:32
know it only has them losing by 8.
16:34
They're only getting 30% of bets.
16:35
I get that. But then remember these teams
16:37
did match up in the championship game last year and Connecticut
16:40
rolled 76 to 59. So the markets is screaming
16:44
Connecticut, they have the homecourt, but Ken Palms got a
16:47
shorter number toward San Diego State and it is a popular bet
16:52
and heavily back game. So I'm not, I'm not touching
16:54
those first two games, but I just wanted to get that out
16:56
there in terms of kind of the way I'm viewing those first two.
16:59
But for me, guys, it's Bama +5 and Illini plus 1 1/2.
17:04
Now let's go over to some Major League Baseball.
17:07
Put me in coach, I'm ready to play.
17:09
So I have two Major League Baseball bets for you tonight.
17:12
But I want to take a step back and kind of just talk a little
17:15
bit about betting Major League Baseball.
17:17
So Major League Baseball is different from all the other
17:20
sports. The first thing you got to know
17:21
about MLB is that it's mostly a money line in total sport.
17:26
It's, you know, you do have the spread, which would be the run
17:28
line, which would be the favorite -1 1/2 dog plus 1 1/2.
17:30
There are situations where if you like a huge favorite, think
17:33
they'll win by two or more, you could, you know, run line them.
17:35
But you know, 99% of the bets we're going to talk about on the
17:38
pod are going to be money lines and totals.
17:42
Now when you're looking at baseball just in general, you
17:45
got to remember that this is a very long season with a ton of
17:48
games. I cannot stress that enough.
17:49
So on the one hand, you know a lot of sharps love baseball
17:53
because you could. There's limitless opportunities
17:56
basically to maximize your edge. You have so many games every
17:58
single day for six plus months. Now the downside or the dark
18:02
side to baseball is that you can really get in a hole betting
18:05
baseball because there's so many games.
18:07
And if you're betting, you know, 10 games a night, every single
18:11
night for six months, you're going to have thousands of bets
18:13
that you're making. And if you just have like 1 bad
18:16
week, you know, one, a few bad day stretch, bad week, a bad
18:19
month, you know you can really dig a hole.
18:21
So to me, baseball, you got to remember that there's so many
18:25
games, which means there's so many opportunities, but also you
18:28
want to be a little careful here because you don't want to bet
18:30
too many games. So we want to find that sweet
18:32
spot where for me, you know, and we're going to be grinding
18:35
baseball from start to finish. I know baseball is maybe not one
18:38
of the most heavily bet sports, but it's kind of that true
18:41
grinder sport where if you're into it, you know you love it
18:43
because it's a daily thing. But I would say on the pod, I
18:47
mean we're going to talk maybe three or four MLB best bets a
18:51
day because we don't want to bet too many and obviously we hope
18:54
for a great day and make a ton of money.
18:56
But we can also have 7 bets and go two and five and and lose
19:00
money. So to me like the three to four
19:02
bets each day, that's kind of the goal.
19:04
Now when you're looking at money line, one thing I want to
19:06
mention, the same model applies in terms of line movement.
19:10
Bet splits. I tweeted out for my AT Josh
19:12
under score Insights Twitter account.
19:14
The bet splits coming from DraftKings powered by V Sin,
19:17
which we're going to lean on. So bets and dollars, line
19:19
movement, that same thing applies.
19:21
Obviously we're focusing on money line, not the spread, but
19:24
one thing we are going to look at are correlative betting
19:26
opportunities. So you know, baseball is
19:29
interesting because if you basically in order to break even
19:33
betting on sports, it's 52.38%. That's -110 juice assuming
19:38
baseball. You know if you if you bet a few
19:40
like we're going to bet a few more dogs in baseball because if
19:43
you're getting plus money plus 120 + 130 and you win, you only
19:46
have to win like 46% of the time.
19:49
We can make money based on the plus money payouts.
19:51
And when we're looking at dogs, we want to line to move toward
19:54
the dog. You know, like plus 130 down to
19:56
plus 120. But also we're going to lean on
19:58
divisional dogs. This is 1 big thing that's
20:00
important. You see it in the NFL as well,
20:02
divisional dogs. But that built in familiarity
20:05
levels. The playing field benefits the
20:06
team getting the plus money and in particular divisional dogs
20:11
with high totals. So if we're on a dog, we want a
20:13
total of, you know, 8 1/2 or more.
20:16
More expected runs scored, more variants, more upset
20:18
opportunities if we're on a favorite.
20:20
We want a a favorite with a total of eight or less because
20:22
fewer amount of expected runs scored, you know more likely to
20:25
be coming from quote UN quote the better team.
20:27
Obviously we're going to look at, you know, bullpens.
20:29
We're going to look at starting lineups.
20:33
Also we are going to look at starting pitcher matchups.
20:36
That's huge. When it comes to totals, one
20:39
thing that I look at is the wind and the umpires.
20:42
So if wind is blowing out, it's hot and we're going to lean a
20:44
little bit over. If it's a indoor game or winds
20:47
blowing in, we're going to lean under.
20:49
We're going to look at umpires. I mean, there's so many things
20:51
to talk about. That's why I don't want to, you
20:53
know, stress it too much and, you know, give you information
20:55
overload. Today I will mention in my book
20:58
the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
20:59
If you want to pick one up from Amazon.com, I have a full
21:02
chapter on how to bet MLB. But just remember, this is going
21:05
to be kind of a slow transition. MLB, like, I'm still obviously
21:08
focused on March Madness. We're in the thick of it with
21:11
NBA and with with NHL. So just remember, it's a long
21:14
season, it's starting, it's very early.
21:17
There's going to be ups and downs, but we are going to
21:20
approach it from a data-driven perspective like we do any other
21:22
sport. Just wanted to mention that,
21:24
give you just a little bit to chew on when it comes to MLB.
21:27
So with that being said, it is opening day and I do have two
21:31
bets for you. So first but on the board, first
21:34
bet of the 2024 Major League season, I'm going to go toward
21:37
the San Francisco, San Diego Padres game.
21:41
It's a 4:10 PM Eastern Time to get today game, you know late
21:45
afternoon. It's in San Diego, and where am
21:48
I going with this one? I'm going to go under 7 1/2 now.
21:52
One thing that I look toward early in the season, especially
21:54
opening day, is leaning unders. The weather isn't great.
21:58
Also, you see unders, you know, perform at a pretty at a higher
22:01
rate early in the season because basically pitching is ahead of
22:03
the hitting and you don't really have your hitting down, your
22:06
timing down yet. And when you get to the early
22:09
part of the season, like everyone's healthy, so you're
22:11
going to get the best bullpens, rested arms, rested starters.
22:14
So you see basically an increase in unders early in the year.
22:17
So we're playing with that overall historical edge.
22:20
But in terms of San Diego San Fran game, I'm going to start
22:22
with the starting pitchers Logan Webb and U Darvish.
22:25
Webb, good pitcher, had a 3.25 ERA last year.
22:29
Darvish had a 4.56. But Darvish is actually actually
22:32
making a second start of the year.
22:33
He went 3.2 innings, no runs, 3K's against the Dodgers.
22:37
I think that was in where was it?
22:38
South Korea. So he did look good in his
22:40
opener. And Logan Webb, he, I think he
22:43
only pitched maybe once. Maybe I'm wrong about that, but
22:46
I know in September I was looking at his game log.
22:48
He played San Diego. He went nine innings, one run,
22:51
seven KS. It was a 2 to one win.
22:53
So you have two pretty good pitchers on the mound.
22:55
We have rested bullpens, but here's where I'm going to go
22:57
under and why I like the under in particular as a data-driven
23:00
play. This game opened with a total of
23:02
7 1/2, -, 110, both sides. Now we're looking across the
23:06
board and it's really juiced up under.
23:08
So I pretty much see all 7 1/2 under -115 under -120 so painted
23:14
across the board juice liability under.
23:16
We also have a really good bet split to the under only 56% of
23:20
bets but 84% of the money is on the under.
23:23
So again that has a really good low bets higher dollar split.
23:26
And then the last little angle cherry on top for this under is
23:30
that in San Diego it's a pretty good weather day for an under.
23:33
It's only about 65° but the wind is blowing in from left center
23:37
at about 11:50 mph and we do have a pretty good under UMP.
23:41
Victoria Carapazza, he's about 54% historically to the under.
23:45
So you have two good pitchers. We have the juice to the under.
23:48
We have really good bet split. We have wind blowing in and we
23:51
have fresh bullpens at a time when typically you know pitching
23:54
is ahead of hitting. So you got it all up here guys.
23:56
I'm going under San Diego, San Francisco under 7 1/2.
24:01
I got it at -120. Then one more bet for you,
24:04
Cleveland, Oakland. This is a late game, 10:00 PM
24:07
Eastern Time tonight. You guessed it, another under
24:10
bet for me. I'm going to go under 7 1/2 with
24:13
this one as well. This is under seven half at
24:14
-120. Now the pitching match up here
24:16
is Shane Bieber. He had a 3.8 OERA last year
24:19
going up against Alex Wood 4.33 ERA.
24:22
Oh, I forgot to mention this. I should have mentioned this.
24:25
San Francisco. San Diego, They were.
24:27
They were your two best under teams last year.
24:30
They're both around 57%. Petco was your number one under
24:33
ballpark 58%, so I wanted to mention that.
24:35
But anyway, Cleveland, Oakland, under seven half, same sort of
24:38
thing. It was 7 1/2 like -110 -, 115
24:41
opener. Now it's 7 1/2 -, 120 to the
24:44
under. I see some books that are down
24:45
to seven. So if you're betting the under,
24:47
make sure you get the hook 4 three-game you want to cash
24:49
this. So there are some sevens but
24:50
there's still a lot of seven and a halfs great bets foot here
24:54
aside from being juiced up under 59% bets, 86% dollars on the
24:58
under. What are they called now Oakland
25:01
Coliseum. Is it still the name they're
25:03
probably they're moving to? I think they're still moving.
25:05
Not with no hiccups but anyway they're going to Vegas.
25:08
But you look at the Oakland stadium it is one of the best
25:11
under ballparks has a ton of foul territory.
25:13
It's very deep so usually get an extra out by foul balls that are
25:17
typically caught versus going the first row of of the stands.
25:20
But it's a good under ballpark. Cleveland was your #3 under team
25:24
last year. They're 56% to the under and
25:27
again juiced up under good sharp bet split.
25:30
I'm hoping I'm going for an under here so I'm on Cleveland.
25:32
Oakland under 7 1/2 with the San Diego San Fran under 7 1/2.
25:38
So two bets there and Major League Baseball.
25:41
Now to finish up the pod. Got a hockey play for you.
25:43
Now let's go to a game here tonight. 8:00 Eastern Time.
25:47
What are we looking at here? Let me just pull this up.
25:51
Here it is. 8:00 we have a match up Calgary Flames and the Saint
25:54
Louis Blues. Now this isn't a huge line move
25:57
play for me, but it's a good system.
25:59
Match and match up play in favor of the Saint Louis Blues.
26:03
I'm going Blues tonight guys shop around.
26:05
I get the Blues around -130 -, 135.
26:08
Now not a huge line move as I mentioned because Saint Louis
26:11
opened -135 ish. They pretty much stayed around
26:15
-135. I think they jumped up as high
26:17
as like -140 earlier today but you pretty much stayed steady at
26:20
Saint Louis. Relatively modest -130 -, 135
26:24
short favorite, but a couple things I like about the Saint
26:26
Louis Blues tonight. First is the goaltending match
26:29
up. Calgary Flames are going with
26:31
Wolf. This is AI.
26:32
Think he's AI? Don't know.
26:33
He's a draft picker journeyman guy.
26:35
He's in the AHL. 3.14 goals against 900 save percentage.
26:39
Jordan Bennington 283 or 2.8. Three goals against with a 912
26:44
save percentage with Bennington in particular.
26:46
He has been hot in the month of March.
26:48
He's got a 2.4 O goals against. The Blues are two and O against
26:52
Calgary this year so hopefully they have their number and will
26:54
continue to do so. What I like about the Blues
26:57
tonight in particular, two things.
26:59
One is a rest first tired matchup, so it's not a favorite
27:02
versus a second leg of a back-to-back.
27:05
But if you look at the Saint Louis Blues, they have one extra
27:07
day of rest. They last played on the 25th,
27:10
which is Monday. You had Calgary play on the 26th
27:12
which is Tuesday. And also Calgary is playing
27:15
their third game in five days. Look at Saint Louis, they're
27:18
playing their second game in five days.
27:20
So Saint Louis has more rest and they've played less games
27:24
obviously in the last five day stretch.
27:26
So if we have an advantage here in favor of Saint Louis, now
27:29
Calgary has lost four straight, They're three and seven.
27:32
Their last ten they've been outscored 16 to 6 and they
27:35
haven't been very good on the road, 1516 and four versus Saint
27:38
Louis, who's been really good at home, 2112 and two at home.
27:43
So it's a bit of a, you know, home ice advantage, obviously
27:45
getting the last ice change when you're the home team.
27:47
But you look at the motivation as well.
27:49
Saint Louis is only six points out of the final wild card spot.
27:53
Now, Calgary's in the conversation too.
27:54
They're nine points out. But if you look at Calgary, they
27:58
sold a bunch of good players at the deadline, Hanifan, Lindholm.
28:02
And they've really been, you know, falling off here recently.
28:04
Three and seven, their last 10 lost four straight.
28:07
Saint Louis, you know, kind of left for dead.
28:09
Maybe they're feeling like, hey, we can maybe grab that final
28:12
wild card, spot their six, three and one, their last ten.
28:15
And they're coming off a tough game against the Golden Knights
28:18
where they lost 2 to one in overtime.
28:19
So they've been playing well recently.
28:21
So again, it's not a huge line move, play bets at DraftKings
28:26
right now I think it's 77% bets, 80% money on Saint Louis.
28:30
But to me it's a rest first tired system match.
28:32
It's a good home team, plays well at home system matching,
28:36
it's a bad Rd. team and you also have the motivation of being
28:39
closer to a playoff spots, hopefully getting that
28:41
motivation along with an advantage here in net with
28:44
Bennington, hopefully over Wolf. So you add it all up here guys
28:47
and you see relatively cheap price here to back Saint Louis,
28:51
a surging team against Calgary A-Team who was struggling.
28:53
So I'm on Saint Louis money line shop round.
28:56
I got Saint Louis money line at -135.
29:00
So that about does it for episode 11 of the All Systems Go
29:04
Sports Betting podcast. Reminder, we are a seed that is
29:08
germinated. We're out of the, you know, out
29:09
of the we're out of the soil. We poked our head out into the
29:12
world. We're getting some sunlight with
29:14
the pod. We're getting some some water
29:16
here. If you're like me it's it's
29:17
pouring rain here in Boston today.
29:19
But we need to to get this baby growing.
29:22
We're a little seedling. Let's become a huge oak tree.
29:24
So help me spread the word about the All Systems Go Sports
29:28
Betting podcast. I'm obviously super excited
29:30
about this and I'm really happy with how we've gone so far.
29:34
You know, 11 pods in our in our back pocket at this point.
29:37
But you guys can help me to get all systems go off the ground.
29:40
Number one, refer it to a friend tell your friends about it #2
29:44
This is very meaningful. Give it five stars, whether
29:48
you're on Spotify. That's my number one goal.
29:50
Spotify is the way the vast majority.
29:53
It's pretty cool a spot. I have a basically an account
29:56
here as an editor, or it's podcasters for Spotify, or
30:01
Spotify for podcasters, whatever they call it.
30:02
But I get analytics, which is cool.
30:04
So I can see like the countries where people are from listening
30:07
to the pod, the demographics, the age groups, what platforms
30:11
are listening to. And the majority are coming from
30:13
Spotify. And the second one is, is
30:15
iTunes. So in particular, no matter how
30:18
you listen, if you want to give it five stars, but in particular
30:21
on Spotify, that would mean a lot to me guys.
30:23
Of course if you are looking to learn more about data-driven
30:27
sharp contrarian betting, that would highly recommend buying my
30:29
book, support the team, make me happy.
30:32
But it's not just, you know, making me happy.
30:34
You can make yourself happy too. Or that friend of yours who
30:36
loves betting, parlays everything bets every home team
30:39
double S down chases, does all the things that we say never to
30:43
do. But my book, it's got everything
30:46
I've learned how lines how lines are set.
30:48
How and why they move. How to read line movement.
30:50
How to locate sharp action. How to place a bet in person or
30:52
online. How to shop for the best line.
30:54
How to set up a bankroll management plan.
30:57
Of course full chapter on how to bet MLB if you want to brush up
31:00
on that because baseball's returning as well as March
31:03
Madness and all the other sports.
31:04
So if you want to learn more or make my day or gift this copy or
31:08
a copy of the all of the everything got a sports betting
31:11
to your uncle or aunt or whoever is getting into bedding for the
31:13
first time. It really mean a lot to me guys.
31:15
And if you want to also give the book five stars in a good review
31:18
on Amazon, that would also make my day.
31:20
Then lastly of course, reminder, I got to get ready for the live
31:23
stream here. So hope to see you guys 3:30 PM
31:26
Eastern Time for the live stream myself.
31:28
James Santor, the team at Rhythm.
31:30
We're going to go through all the March Madness games for
31:32
today. I'll give you my take, give you
31:34
some late breaking line moves and then of course I'm
31:37
interested in seeing what Rhythm has on the app for some plays
31:40
here for today. So looking forward to that.
31:42
It'll be streamed live on Twitter at 3:30.
31:44
And lastly, I want to let you know that Rhythm is freaking
31:47
awesome. Rhythm is the ultimate AI sports
31:50
betting app for data, back pics and props.
31:52
So if you haven't done it yet, make sure you go download the
31:55
Rhythm apps. You can start making smarter
31:56
bets today. In order to download the Rhythm
31:59
app, all you got to do very simple, very easy.
32:01
Go to my Twitter page at Josh under Score Insights or the All
32:04
Systems Go Twitter page at under score, ASG, under score Podcast.
32:08
There's going to be a pin, tweet, there's going to be a
32:10
custom link. Click that.
32:11
You're going to get your trial and they'll know that I refer to
32:14
you, which is very important as well.
32:15
But I'm looking forward very much to helping you guys win and
32:20
and helping us use rhythm to our advantage to make smarter bets.
32:24
So make sure you give rhythm a follow on Twitter at Bet Rhythm
32:27
as well. But MLB is back, baby.
32:30
March Madness is back. We're still sweating.
32:32
NBANHL and and all and all things are pretty good here.
32:35
Let's see if we can have our two day win streak, move to a three
32:38
day win streak guys. That is always the goal.
32:40
And that's the thing about sports betting.
32:42
It's always a challenge. If you have a losing day, it's a
32:44
challenge to bounce back and have a winning day the next day.
32:47
If you got a winning day yesterday or two days straight,
32:49
it's a challenge to try to produce a third straight winning
32:52
day. So I think as the sports better
32:54
you got to embrace the challenge and hopefully that's a good
32:57
challenge to have when you're winning to try to keep winning.
32:59
But my parting words, as always, whether I see you at the Borgata
33:03
in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
33:05
Hampshire Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun.
33:07
Down in Connecticut at the encore in Boston or Plain Ridge
33:09
Park Casino or MGM Springfield, or out in the desert where the
33:12
true grinders get down at the South Point or of course,
33:15
Stadium swim jumping in the pool Here.
33:17
Hopefully if if we have a cover maybe by by Alabama or by
33:22
Illinois, wherever it may be. You're going to walk up to me.
33:24
You're going to show me some nice tickets from last night.
33:26
You were going to show me a Seattle high point under a
33:29
lightning fade. Teams on second leg
33:32
back-to-back. System match.
33:34
Hawks over. Magic under.
33:36
Guess what? First one's on me.
33:37
Next one's on you. We're going to post about the
33:38
book. Sweat sharp, Contrarian plays
33:40
all night long. So parting words, stay sharp,
33:43
stay contrarian. Bet against the public.
33:44
Place yourself on the side of the house.
33:46
Always be with the smart money. Never against it.
33:48
Will smart money win every time? Of course not.
33:51
It's hard betting. Betting ain't easy if you
33:52
haven't realized that yet. But we can win.
33:55
And we will win by staying true to the model, betting with our
33:57
heads and not our hearts. Against the public, with the
34:00
house, with the pros, Flat bet, avoid parlays, get some CLV.
34:03
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
34:06
So happy MLB return, enjoy the madness.
34:09
I'll see you guys in the live stream.
34:10
And then big day tomorrow with a big, big Friday pot for all
34:14
systems go. So thank you for listening.
34:16
Good luck and let's see if we can cash some tickets on a big
34:19
Thursday night.