Latest / Toadstool Sports / Wednesday BEST BETS | Selectivity Pays | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB & WNBA | 5/13/26

Transcript

Wednesday BEST BETS | Selectivity Pays | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB & WNBA | 5/13/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: Man, a hole in your chase, the black coffee on
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: the felt Man, you look.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet? Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: Your name steal mean something on somebody for show. Put
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Nine. Hold on, hold on, nothing.
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: Nice now, hold on, hold on.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: And me but it all get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on, stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Now, what's up? Everybody? It's Toad Back with you with
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Toadstool Sports. Wednesday, May thirteenth, one and all on the show.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Yesterday Saint Louis Cardinals only play. They got the win.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: They I believe they were winning four to nothing in
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: the first inning and then they threw it away and
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: it was four to three. But then they extended the
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: lead and wound up winning. Hung on for the win,
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: their bullpen hung on in the end. We won that.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: They won that game six to four. We're now on
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: a seventy one, thirty four and five run in the
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: last thirty nine days. Really really hot on the show.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Here we're on a fifteen and one run. Now, I
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: think over the last five or six days, whatever it is, Yeah,
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: we've been crazy hot right now. The one loss was
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: that one game over the weekend that under that went
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: awry on Saturday. That was the only day where we
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: haven't swept the board over the last week basically. But
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: you know now that I say that we're gonna lose
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: every play today, so whatever. But I was also correct
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: about both hockey games last night. I was correct on
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: the side in the NBA game, I think I think
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: the game went under as well, which I also agreed with.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: I was correct about every WNBA game last night as well,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: even though I didn't have a strong opinion on them.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: You know, I don't know, man, some of the baseball
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: stuff I was not correct about. A lot of those
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: teams in return home spots won anyway because the matchup
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: was just so bad for them. That's what I was saying, like,
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: I just don't want to do it. I don't know.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Let's get into today. I guess I'm gonna have two
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: plays both in baseball today. I don't like the rest
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: of the board enough. I was close on the NBA game.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: I don't know. There are a few things about it.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: I don't like enough. But Bertie Sock, what's up. Thanks
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: for hanging out, Buffalo. Yeah, I mean these I don't know, man,
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: these liens that I give out, I mean that was
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: pretty close. These liens that I give out Buffalo got
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: out playing in that game. They were not the better
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: team in that game. I think I was wrong about
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: that and had the correct winner. But yeah, I mean
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: there's a reason why I did not put that on
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: my card. I don't know. Like these leans, I would
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: not take them that seriously. I mean, depending on how
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: strong I feel about it. But that's kind of just
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: in my head, like what I'm thinking about it. I
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: don't know. Yeah, I have no idea what to say
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: about that. But if you're gonna bet those, I would
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: not recommend putting much money on those. Josh, what's up?
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out? All right? First game up? We
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: have two after noon games today. This is a weird
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Wednesday slate. Tomorrow is basically gonna be getaway day. There's
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: like a lot of baseball tomorrow and a lot of
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: afternoon baseball tomorrow. Today it's mostly night baseball, but there
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: are two series that are ending, which are these afternoon
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: games here Yankees and Baltimore. They've split the first two
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: games of the series, so I think both teams are
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: gonna show up for divisional series. Whoever wins this game
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: is gonna win the series. This is on Amazon Prime
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: and ESPN Unlimited. The Yankees bounce back with a win
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: yesterday after I think they'd lost like four games in
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: a row. Prior to that, Yankees had they used four
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday Baltimore used what is that for? As well.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Yankees have the better bullpen out of the two, though
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Yankees are ranked ninth. I arranged this to my whip,
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: Baltimore is fifteenth. Yankees have the better offense as well.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: They're currently ranked second. Arranged by ops, Baltimore is I
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: don't even see them. Where the hell are they twenty first?
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: So yeah, Yankees obviously have some edges here. They have
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: the better pitcher on the mound as well. Max Freed
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: is pitching two point nine to one ERA point nine
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: to five Whip. He's been better on the road as well,
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: significantly better, although he hasn't made that many home starts,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: but one point seventy four ERA on the road is
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: roadyra is four runs lower than it is at home
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: right now. That's interesting, and you know, it might make
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: things a little bit questionable for him going forward. This month,
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: he has had some walk issues. He's walked six in
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: eleven and a third inning so far over the last
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: two out he's including one against Baltimore at home where
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: the Yankees won that game. He didn't get the win.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: In the game, he went five and a third, had
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: three walks, had six strikeouts, give it three on runs. Overall,
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: his numbers are pretty good. Forty eight strikeouts, eighteen walks,
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: thirty eight hits, a lot of fifty eight to two
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: thirds innings. Just his strikeout rate is not really that high.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Numbers against Baltimore, despite that somewhat questionable start last time out,
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: are pretty good. One hundred and seven at bats two
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: thirty four average allowed, six forty six ops, thirty two strikeouts,
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: fifteen walks is not a good ratio, although six of
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: those walks are Pete Alonzo. He also counts for half
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: of the strikeouts free. Though he is pitching better on
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: the road, good numbers against Baltimore, I mean, to me,
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: it does look like he is probably gonna have a
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: good start here. Kyle Bradish is pitching for the Orioles.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: He has not been great. Four point eight three e RRA,
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: one point six to six whip is very bad. He's
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: been better at home though, three point nine to seven
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: homey RA. So you have both starting pitchers in the
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: better of their home road splits. Bradish did pitch against
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: the Yankees in that series as well in the Bronx,
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: and he did not do well. He went four innings,
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: gave up five runs, and that outing had four walks,
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: also four strikeouts. That was not particularly good at all.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: He bounced back really nicely with the home start against
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: the A's where he demolished them last time out with
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: ten strikeouts though and one walk at seven innings and
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: allowed three runs. His overall numbers, his walk rate is
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: too high. He's got forty five strikeouts, twenty two walks,
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: forty six hits, allowed forty one innings, pitched too many
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: hits as well, just generally putting way too any guys
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: on base. But believe it or not, even though that
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: start last time out was bad against the Yankees, his
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: numbers against the Yankees are actually good. In seventy two
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: at bats, and this includes that bad start twenty eight
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: to eight, strikeout walk ratio two to eight to average
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: allowed six to ninety ops. So both pitchers actually are
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: in the better of their home road splits, and they
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: look to match up pretty well here. So I'm gonna
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: lean under in this game. This one. I was toying
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: with the idea of making this a play. I'm not
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: gonna do it. I just I'm not sure if I
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: totally trust Bradish, especially after that last time out. Both
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: pitchers did just see these hitters, so the hitters are
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: gonna be more recently familiar with them. A though in
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: this case, I don't really think it matters because they
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: have so much history against these two pictures anyway, that
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: I don't think matters that much. But generally, when you
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: have offenses that know the opposing bat, the opposing pictures
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: excuse me, generally, I think they tend to do a
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: little bit better. But as you just saw, both these
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: pictures have really good matchup numbers. Although it didn't help
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: Bradish in the last outing, and Freed wasn't even really
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: that good the last time he was facing Baltimore either.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: We have eighty seven percent of tickets, ninety three percent
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the under, the totals eight and
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: a half. Do with that information what you want. The
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: money is fading the Yankees as well, eighty five percent
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: of the tickets, sixty six percent of the cash. They
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: were minus one ninety or so on the price minus
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: one eighties. I don't know, man, I don't have a
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: good feel for that. I mean, I think the Yankees
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: are gonna win this game. I think they have the
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: better starting pitcher. I think they have the better offense
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: and the better bullpen, so I think they will win,
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: especially because they ended a losing streak. Sometimes that gives
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: you new positive momentum. So I would not want to
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: jump on Baltimore here, but I think my preference is
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: to go under in this game, probably including the bullpens
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: as well. I don't know. I mean the bullpens. They're
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: not that unrested here and they're not really horrible bullpens,
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: so that makes sense to me. First five under also
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: does make sense Anaheim at Cleveland, these teams are finishing
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: this series as well, I believe, because it's an afternoon game,
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: so usually that means they're traveling afterwards. Cleveland is on
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: the verge of a sweep and Cleveland does play Cincinnati next,
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: so maybe Cleveland takes Anaheim lightly here. Like I always say,
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: when a team has already won the series, they're looking
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: for the sweep. Usually the team trying to avoid the
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: sweep has a little bit more motivation. The team on
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: the verge of the sweep can overlook that team. Sometimes
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Cleveland has their interleague in state rival coming up, it
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: looks like it's gonna be like a rivalry weekend. I think,
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: like there are a lot of interleague rivalries happening over
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: the weekend, like the Yankees Mets are playing a subway
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: series over the weekend as well. If there was one
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: other one in here, I forget what it was, but
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: there was one other one where I was like, oh, yeah,
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: that's another one of those rivalries. I think it's Tampa
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: Bay is playing Florida, I think. But Cleveland Cincinnati is
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: a pretty big rivalry, so they might look ahead to that.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: So situation to me, it favors Anaheim here. But of
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: course Anaheim has some problems, especially their bullpen. These three
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday Cleveland used a lot, though Cleveland used five,
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: so that's gonna disadvantage Cleveland's bullpen a little bit, even
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: though they are the better bullpen. Their ranked Twelvethims ranked
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: twenty seventh, So I still think the Cleveland has a
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: bullpen edge, but it gets somewhat negated by having used
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: so many relief pitchers yesterday. Anaheims is still so bad
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: you can't really rely on them, so this might be
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: a game where you want to fade both bullpens. Cleveland
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: has ranked twenty second in offense angels thirteenth red debt
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: me versus pitching for Anaheim here, he's been okay this year,
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: starting to drop off a little bit though, four point
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: three to three ERA, one point two to four WHIP.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: He's been better on the road three point nine to
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: eight road ERA. He was really bad in his last
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: outing against Toronto, though he had six walks and three
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: and two thirds innings. He was good in the previous
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: start against the Mets. The last time he had a
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: bad start like that, it was against the hard hitting
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Braves and then he bounced back with a good start
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: against the Yankees the next time. So maybe he will
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: bounce back from that bad start against Toronto. Maybe it
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: was a fluke. He threw way too many He was
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: almost at one hundred pitches through three and two thirds innings,
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: so that's not good. He may be able to bounce
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: back here though against Cleveland. Debt Mers does not have
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: good numbers though in forty eight bats two seventy five
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: average allowed, nine ninety six ops, thirteen to eight strikeout
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: walk ratio not good numbers here. I don't know if
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: I would want to deal with Debt Meers here. Man. Overall,
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: those numbers do look fine on the season though, forty
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: seven strikeouts fifteen walks, that's a little bit high, but
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: the strikeout rate is high. Thirty nine hits a lot
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: of forty three and two thirds innings, So yeah, generally,
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's that bad. Doesn't look like a
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: great matchup for him, though Parker Messic is pitching for Cleveland.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: He is definitely the better of the two pitchers two
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: point three ERA point nine to eight whip. He's been
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: slightly worse at home, but not really anything significant there.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Pitch well last time out against the Mets, bouncing back
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: from kind of a rough outing at the A's stadium.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: But I think we give him a pass for that
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: because we know that's just all home run conducive stadium,
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: and he did get knocked for three home runs in
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: that game, but he's only allowed one of their home
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: run this season. He's got a fifty one to eleven
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio, thirty five hits a lot in forty
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: seven innings. All those numbers are quite good. Besides that
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: A's game, he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: every other start. He's allowed two or fewer in all
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: but two outings, and even that as won, he only
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: allowed four. So yeah, he's been really good. And the
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: Angels only have one hitters faced him, Josh Lowe, and
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: he's zero for five with two strikeouts against him. So
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: Messk is unfamiliar to the Angels. So even though I
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: think the situation favors the Angels here, the starting pitching
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: matchup definitely does not. The money is coming in on
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: Anaheim here seventy three percent of tickets on Cleveland, fifty
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: two percent of the cash on Anaheim. Crazy, the total
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: is really low in this game at seven. I mean
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: a lot of that has to do with Parker Messick,
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: But I don't know, man, I mean, if Denvers gives
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: up some runs here, I don't know Cleveland does seem
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: like they have a pretty pitcher friendly ballpark, but Cleveland
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: plays a lot of low scoring games because they have
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: decent pitching and bad offense. So there is that. But
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Anaheim is a bad bullpen. Cleveland's bullpen used way too
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: many guys yesterday, So if I was gonna go under here,
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: I would limit it to the first five. But I
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: don't want to do that, and I probably lean to
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: Cleveland here man to complete the sweep. I mean, they're
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: you're paying a price for it though they're around minus
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: one sixty. This is not gonna be on my card again.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: The situation favors Anaheim, so I don't really want to
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: fade that. But the stardy pitching matchup looks like it's
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: a big edge to Cleveland, especially you know, the young
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: like stud pitcher who's unfamiliar to the opposing hitters. That
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: is a good angle usually that gives them a little
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: bit of an extra advantage. And then Cleveland does have
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen, even though it's unrested right now. So yeah,
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: I I don't want to play Anaheim in that game.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: The matchup just doesn't give them any advantages there that
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: I see. So even though the situation, does Tyson, what's up?
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out all right into the evening slate.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: Colorado at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh won yesterday with Paul Skeen's pitching,
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: even though it was a return home spot. I did
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: lean under in that game, which did hit, and I
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: leaned Colorado on the run line. That depended on what
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: number you got, because the Pirates won three to one.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: Paul Skeen's was really good in the game. Again, Colorado's
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: pitching wasn't even bad in that game. This game, I
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: don't know if this game is gonna be different. Though
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: Colorado used four relief pitchers yesterday, Pittsburgh used only one,
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: so Paul Skeen's kind of saved their bullpen. As far
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: as the bullpens, they're both mediocre bullpens, Colorado eighteenth, Pittsburgh nineteenth.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: But those when you order this by Whip, it kind
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: of fucks everything up because they're actually tied and Whip.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: But Colorado as a worse ra so Pittsburgh should be
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: ranked higher. Pittsburgh is the better bullpen. Hitting wise, Pittsburgh
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: has been pretty good. They's seventh in offense. Colorado actually twelfth,
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: although not as good on the road. Jose Kintana is
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: gonna pitch for Colorado. I mean he keeps doing it, man,
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know. He's been around forever. He
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: keeps his team in most games. At least. He's got
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: a three point ninety RA one point three to three whip,
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: which isn't that great but not horrible. He's slightly worse
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: on the road, but his home road splits are not
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: very significant. He's allowed four or fewer earned runs in
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: all of his outings. He has a really ugly fourteen
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: to thirteen strikeout walk ratio. But really, what the issue
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: is that he's not striking anybody out. His strikeout rate
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: is really low, but he's still getting a lot of outs.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: Twenty seven hits a lot in thirty innings. So his
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: stuff just doesn't exist. He's never really been like a
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: hard thrower. He's a junk pitcher. But whatever he's doing
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: is still effective enough. He's still pitching alright here, and
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: you know he's he was okay against Atlanta. He was
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: good actually against Atlanta a couple of starts ago. His
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: worst start this season was against the Dodgers. Maybe give
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: him a little bit of a pass for that. His
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: numbers against the Pirates are not very good though. In
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: seventy three at bats two eighty eight batting average allowed
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: seven forty nine ops, which is just below the seven
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: fifty that I kind of uses the Mendoza line there.
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: Sixteen strikeouts, four walks a lot against them. You know,
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: could Quintana could actually pitch okay here, but I think
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: he is the lesser pitcher. He's going up against Mitch Keller,
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: who you know, I always talk about Keller. I think
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: he's a he's a pretty strong pitcher and he never
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: gets any accolades, like nobody knows who the hell he is.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: But he's got a two point eight seventy RA one
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: point zero four whip for Pittsburgh. He's been a little
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: bit worse at home, but not very significant splits there.
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: He's pitched well this month. He's allowed three ar in
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: runs total this month, three or few are runs in
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: his last four outings. Pirates have won all four of them.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: This month. He has a ten to three strike out
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: walk ratio season wide, thirty five to fourteen strike out
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: walk ratio and thirty five hits a lot of forty
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: seven innings. Those numbers are all pretty good, except it's
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: just he doesn't strike out a lot of guys. But
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: that's just not what he does. But he's been quite
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: effective this season because numbers against Colorado or pretty strong.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: In forty six at bats, fourteen strike outs, two walks,
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: two seventeen. Average allowed the ops is a little bit
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: high though, seven to twenty eight. He's allowed three home
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: runs to three different batters. But I like Keller over
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: Kintana on this one. Man, the problem is you have
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: to pay a huge price for it if you want Pittsburgh.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, the price is not going to
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: be justified. Colorado, like they just get extremely disrespected in
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: the market. I know Pittsburgh was minus three hundred with
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: schemes on the mound. This is around minus here today.
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: This is a little bit more tolerable, but still the
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: money's coming in on Colorado. Seventy percent of tickets on Pittsburgh,
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: seventy one percent of the cash on Colorado. I think
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh probably gets the job done and wins this game. Again.
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: You know, it might be a situation where you go
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: split bet run line, money line. The totals at eight
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: and a half, I would probably lean a little bit
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: towards the under in this one as well. I could
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: see both pitchers actually doing okay here, but I don't
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: feel as good about that as I You know, I
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: think the under was better yesterday, even though it was
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: Paul's skiings and the total was a little bit lower.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: But Quintana might be better than Lorenzen though Lorenz is just
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: way better on the road than he is at home.
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: I don't know, I'm rambling, but yeah, I don't have
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: a good opinion on that game. Sab puts up. Good
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: to see you again, Thank you, sir. Spurs Kee Wolves
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: went over. It went over. I thought it went under
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: last night. Know twelve? Wait, what's the what is this stat?
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: Twelve of thirteen have gone over? What? Just in general
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: in the NBA playoffs, those games have gone have gone over?
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: You lean under in the Cavs game, I also agree.
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: I agree with that. I agree with the under. I'm
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: gonna talk about that game at the very end of
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: the show. I don't know what this overtrend is though,
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: but yeah, I'm not putting too much stock into that
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: other than if a lot of recent games are going over,
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: you're probably gonna get a better number playing under, although
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna talk about that. The books know like the
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: under trends into two series, so the books have adjusted
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: that total a little bit lower. Uh, so there isn't
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: as much value on it. Although I think I still
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: agree with that Washington at Cincinnati in baseball, Cincinnati got
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: killed yesterday. They didn't beat Miles Michelis. I was correct
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: about the over. That was my best opinion in that game.
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: Maybe I should have added it to my card. That
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: was one of the other things I got right yesterday
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: base Well, you know, even though I got my one
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: play correct, my baseball reads were not too good yesterday,
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: but that was one that was correct. And then I again,
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: I'm kind of mad because I was correct about all
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: the other things pretty much NBA side, the NHL sides,
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: and whatever else the WNBA. I was correct about all
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: of them as well. But anyway, that's an embarrassing lass
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: due for Cincinnati. I mean, Cincinnati is not as good
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: as the record looks. As I've been saying. Washington's not
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: a really good team either though, and to lose ten
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: to four, maybe Cincinnati is going to be in bounce
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: back mode here, JR? What's up? Thanks for hanging out. Yeah,
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: it's been rough, guys, not really though on this show
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: it's been the opposite of rough recently. As far as
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: these bullpens, these are both pretty bad bullpens, and Cincinnati
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: used five relief pitchers in that game yesterday, Washington used three.
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: I would not want to rely on either bullpen here.
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati's ranked twenty eighth in bullpen penal of their ERA,
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: is actually less bad than some of these other teams,
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: including Washington, who i've ranked twenty fourth. But both bullpens
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: are bad. Like I said, you know that should be
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: factored into the handicap. Washington is sixth offensively now and
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: the Reds are twenty third, so Washington does have a
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: big offensive edge. Jake Irvin is pitching for Washington. He
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: has not been very good five point two two ERA,
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: one point three to six whip. He's been way better
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: on the road though, for whatever reason, three point zero
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: five Roady Ira, so he has significant home road splits
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: where his Roady Iray is like four runs better. At
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: least for now. Hasn't been very good this month, but
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: both those starts are at home against Milwaukee and Minnesota.
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: I had seven strikeouts, five walks, that's not a good ratio.
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: His overall ratio this season is a little bit better
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: than that, forty one to sixteen strikeout walk ratio, thirty
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: eight hits a lot in thirty nine to two thirds innings.
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: You know, looking at those numbers, they're not really that bad,
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: although the walk number is still high. He is better
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: on the road. I think he might be better than
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: his overall numbers kind of make him look right now.
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: At least. Numbers against the Reds are pretty mediocre, though
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: not something that I really would want to back. Sixty
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: four at bats, sixteen strikeouts, six walks, two sixty six
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: average allowed, seven sixty six ops. Those numbers are you know,
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: they're they're very average. He's going up against Nick Ldolo,
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: who was making Oh no, I thought he was making
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: a season debut. My mistake. He made one start already
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: this season. It was against Houston at home in this ballpark,
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: and he was not that good. He went five and
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: a third in He's gave up four and runs on
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: five hits, but got a little bit unlucky allowed two
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: of them runs. He does allow too many fly balls,
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: though he had two strikeouts one walk. Lodolo is a
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: bit of a mystery because his first season in the
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: majors all of this was Cincinnati. His first season was
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: pretty good. Then it looks like he dealt with injuries
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: the year in twenty twenty three and he kind of
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: fell off, came back at twenty twenty four and his
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: whip was actually pretty good, indicative that his ERA should
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: have been better than it was. And then last year
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: he had his best season. Uh so is he gonna
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: return to for him? I don't know. I don't know
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: what his injury was that led to the delay in
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: starting this season, but his whip is pretty good this season,
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: still one point one to three. This is only with
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: one start, though, but that indicates that his six point
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: seventy five r RA should not be that high, and
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: looking at what he did last year, yeah, he's better
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: than that era. Against Washington, his numbers are a little
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: bit all over the place and forty four at bats,
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: eight strikeouts, one walk. He's only allowed one extra base
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: hit to them, a double to Wood, not James Woods,
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: the actor, James Wood, not Shark. If anybody remembers that
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: show with James Woods. I used to watch that show
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: actually a pretty underrated show where I believe he was
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: a lawyer. If I'm not, it's been a while for me.
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: Batting average allowed though, to ninety five, that's not very good.
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: Lodolo against Washington six forty four ohps allowed is pretty
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: good though. So he's a lot a lot of singles
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: to them, but not a lot of uh power hitting
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: to them. Kind of strange numbers. This is not a
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: game I want to get involved in. You know. I
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: think Cincinnati might have some advantages here, but they did
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: use a lot of their relief pitchers yesterday. We got
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: fifty five percent of tickets on Cincinnati, fifty three percent
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Washington. The total is high. It
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: is a hitter friendly ballpark here, total at nine. I
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, I kind of lean Cincinnati to bounce
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: back after yesterday's really awful effort. But you're having to
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: lay minus one fifty something here, probably a split bet
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: run line, money line something like that, but I don't
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: or you could go first five innings, so you just
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: avoid the bullpens, even though both bullpens suck. So I
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: don't know, but Cincinnati is a little bit less rested.
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: But maybe Lodolo does have an edge over Irvan but
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: then again, IRV has been pretty good on the road too.
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: There are some arguments to be made for a first
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: five under in this game, and the money seems to
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: be coming in on the over for the full game.
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: But if some of that is because the bullpens are
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: that bad, but I could see the starting pitchers actually
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: doing okay in this game. Not a game I want
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: to get involved in it all though, Garrett, what's up?
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out Braves. I have not talked about
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: the Braves game yet. Next game up is Philadelphia at Boston.
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: My Boston Red Sox continue to not be able to
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: hit whatsoever. They lost two to one yesterday and it
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: looked like William A. Bray You was gonna potentially tie
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: the game or whatever with a home run there and
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: it fell short, caught on the warning track. Everybody freaked out,
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: looked like it was gonna be a home run, and
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: then it just died up in the air. I don't
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: know what's going It has been fairly cool out recently,
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: though the really well, I don't know, it's been in
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: the sixties, which is what it's gonna be again here
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: in Boston. So whatever. This game, though, the Red Sox
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: do have the better bullpen. They used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: Beao was actually good again, very interesting bo when they
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: have him come in. Moran gave up a run in
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: the first inning, and then Bao came in and went
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: like seven innings of one run ball. I don't know
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: what's going on, dude, Bao. He's like atrocious when he
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: starts the game, but when you put an opener in
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: front of him for one inning, Bao becomes like a
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: completely different pitcher and he's way better. That guy's a
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: total head case. It makes no sense to me. But anyway,
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox did not really use any of their
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: really best relievers. Yes well, I don't know. They didn't
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: use Chapman at least yesterday. But the Red Sox still
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: have the better bullpen anyway. Philadelphia's is kind of mediocre.
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia only used two relievers yesterday. They did use their closer, though,
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: which I believe is Durrah. Not to be confused with
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: Darren with Jaron Taran Darren Duran, No with Jaron Duran.
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: This is Joan Duran. Anyway. The Red Sox, the one
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: thing they got going for them is their number six
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: in bullpen Philadelphia's seventeenth, so the Red Sox do have
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: the edge there. The Red Sox basically don't have a
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: hitting edge against anybody except for the Giants and the Mets.
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: Red Sox twenty eighth on offense. Phillies have moved up
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: a little bit their eighteenth and unfortunately brief Red Sox
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: player Nick Schwarber hit a home run in that game
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: yesterday too. Starting pitching here, though, the Red Sox should
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: have an advantage here. Andrew Painter is pitching for the Phillies,
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: and he's young, and the Red Sox have never faced
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: him before. I think he's talented, but hasn't really shown
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: it yet. He's got a six point eight to ninety
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: RA one point seven to one whip that's pretty bad stuff.
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: He's getting worse on the road seven point three six ROADRA.
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: So these offenses have been getting to him. After he
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: looked pretty good in his first start, he really hasn't
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: been since then. He had one other good start, and
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: all the other starts that he's made are pretty bad.
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: Although really the bad number that he has is he's
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: allowed way too many hits forty four hits in thirty
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: two and two thirds innings. The rest of his numbers
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: are fine, thirty strikeouts, twelve walks. It's a few too
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: many walks too, but I'd give him a pass for
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: that if he was, you know, not completely hittable like this.
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: So you know, maybe he'll do better against the Red Sox, though,
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: because the Red Sox have never seen him in The
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: Red Sox have been a very weak offense this year,
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: so Painter might actually pitch well here. But he also
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: has not done well in the season though, so it's
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: also possible the Red Sox actually breakout offensively in this
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: game for once. I don't know which way it's gonna go,
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: so obviously I'm not gonna make a play on this.
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: Sonny Gray is pitching for the Red Sox. You know,
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: he's already had to deal with an injury this year.
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: He's getting old, but he's been all right. Three point
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: five four ERA, one point two to nine whip. He's
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: been better at home pretty significantly, actually, one point eight
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: Homie Ray so far. He's coming off a shutout of
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: Detroit on the road. Gray, he's not really striking out
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: guys anymore, which you know makes sense when you're up
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: there in age, but he's still pretty much getting the
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: job done. All the fifteen strikeouts in twenty eight innings
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: does worry me that he's just not fooling anybody. But
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: he's only allowed seven walks twenty nine hits. That's not
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: too bad, although the whip is still a little bit
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: higher than i'd want to see it. His numbers gets
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia are decent. I would say they're a little bit
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: above average on his side of things. One hundred and
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: thirty six at bats against him. It's a huge sample.
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: Forty five strikeouts, eleven walks, two fifty average allowed seven
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: to twenty five ops. Gray. Yeah, he's done alright against Philly,
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: so he might set up okay in this game. Maybe
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: it's a bounce back for the Red Sox here. I'll
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: lean Red Sox, but I really don't love it. The
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: money is hitting Philadelphia though, fifty eight percent of tickets
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: eighty one percent of the cash on Philly. I really
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: don't know the paint or his trustworthy man. I mean,
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: Gray obviously is the more solidified pitcher here, and I
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: don't mean how old he is. He's fossilized. No Red
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: Sox are a fairly cheap price in my opinion at
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty six. There's a reason why they're still
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: favored here. Although both these teams have I think underperformed
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: this year though, But the Red Sox are they have
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: one of the worst records in baseball, man, and their
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: offense has been that bad, like they got to fix
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: that shit because they're pitching hasn't been that bad anyway.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: The total in this game is nine, which does kind
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: of seem high to me, although it is a hitter
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: friendly ballpark. Maybe that means wind is blowing out as well.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: The wind isn't that much of an effect in Fenway
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: because they're not close to the water or anything. But yeah,
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I don't know. I think my
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: slight opinion in that game would be to lean towards
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox though, to bounce back Tampa Bay at Toronto.
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay keeps beating Toronto, man, I mean, I don't
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: know what it is, but I think Toronto. Toronto got
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: swept by Tampa Bay down in Tampa Bay already and
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: now they're on the version of getting swept again. Although
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: I think these teams play tomorrow too, I might be
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: wrong about that. I think I'm wrong actually, like I said,
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay actually does have Miami next. Now, I don't know,
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: are they really gonna look ahead to Miami. I don't
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: know that is their interleague rival, but it's not like
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: that's a long standing rivalry. Is both those teams were
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: expansion teams in like the nineties or whatever, So I
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: don't know about that, but that is who Tampa plays next.
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: Toronto might you know, have a little bit extra motivation
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: here because they're trying to avoid the sweep. They're trying
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: to avoid going zho to six against Tampa Bay so far,
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay again, I think they're overperforming a little bit, dude.
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay one yet another one run game yesterday, seven
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: to six. I believe in extra innings they keep winning
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: run one run games, dude, Like you can't keep doing that?
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: In my opinion, Well, I think Tampa's not a bad team,
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: but I think they're not as good as their record looks,
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: and I think there is gonna be some regression for
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: them coming at some point. Will it come in this
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: game though, I'm not sure. Tampa Bay did use a
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: lot of relief pitchers yesterday. It was an extra inning game,
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: so it makes sense they used five. Toronto also used five,
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: so the bullpens are both not really in a good
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: shape Pier, so I would not want to rely on
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: the bullpens, although Tampa has actually been pretty good tenth
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: in bullpen right now, Toronto thirteenth not bad either offensively,
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: Tampa thirteenth and Toronto is twenty third, so Tampa does
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: have a slightly better bullpen and a better offense by
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: a decent margin. But Tampa looks like they're kind of
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: going with a bullpen ish game here with Griffin Jacks
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: listed as their starter, who's gonna be an open role
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: though he might go a few innings here, but he's
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: also not good five ERA one point four to four
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: whip that's not good. He's been really bad on the
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: road six point nine to seven roadyra It's hard to
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: gauge what he's gonna do. Is last outing, he actually
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: went four innings against the Red Sox, but I think
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: it's gonna kind of depend on how he's pitching, like
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: how deep he's gonna go into this game. And his
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: numbers are actually good against Toronto though, but remember most
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: of this is in relief appearances. Fifty three at bats,
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: eleven strikeouts, three walks, two twenty six average allowed six
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: forty five ohps. My guess is that Jacks is probably
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: gonna go about three innings in this game, and then
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: Tampa's gonna have to use their bullpen. But remember that's
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: not good because Tampa used a lot of their bullpen
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: last night. So you have an unrested bullpen and you're
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: basically setting up kind of a bullpen game here. That
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: doesn't look good to me. They might have Jacks, they
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: might leave him in longer than that, but I don't know, man,
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, that looks like a problem. When they're going
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: up against Dylan Cease, who is an actual starter for Toronto.
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: He's been pretty good two point five EIGHTYRA, one point
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: two to four whip. He is improving upon his numbers
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: that really weren't that good last year with San Diego,
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: so I kind of questioned this signing by the Blue James.
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: But he's pitched well so far this season. Cease has
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: been a little bit better at home, but not really
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: significant home road splits. He's coming off a really good
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: outing against Anaheim. He shut them out for seven innings,
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: double digit strikeouts. He has a seventeen to one strikeout
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, along with a one point nine to three
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: ERA and two starts this month, one on the road
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: one at home. He's in really good for him currently.
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: Overall in the season, he has a ridiculous strikeout rate
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: sixty six strikeouts and forty five and third innings. That's insane,
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: which covers the fact that he has too many walks
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: eighteen walks. His problem is the walks, but he's gotten
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: that down recently too. That was really his issue last
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: year as he was walking a ton of guys, but
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: he's seems to have that a little bit more under
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: control right now. He's also only allowed thirty eight hits.
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: Cease has been really good. His numbers against Tampa, though,
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: are not good. In forty two at bats, six strikeouts,
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: twelve walks, three ten batting average allowed eight to sixty
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: eight ops. That's some bad stuff, man, So Ceas is
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: in really good form right now, but in his career
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: he has not ceased Tampa Bay's hitters from doing damage
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: to him. So I like the over in this game,
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: and you have two unrested bullpens that it's gonna be
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: a problem if they get in there. Tampa looks like
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: they're going with basically a bullpen game with an already
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: tied bullpen. Cease sometimes does throw too many pitches and
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: not go deep into games, even though he is getting
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: that fixed a bit. His numbers against Tampa bad though, dude,
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: So Toronto's around minus one fifty on the side the
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: money's coming in on Tampa Bay fifty four percent of tickets,
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: fifty nine percent of the cash on Tampa. I don't
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: like Tampa in this game. I don't like I'd probably
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: still lean to Toronto because Cese is actually at least
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: a starter and might get you further into the game,
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: so Toronto might finally beat Tampa Bay. That would be
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: my lean there situation I think supports Toronto as well.
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: But again the problem is the matchup for Cease looks
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: really bad. This total is really low. It's seven and
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: a half. Seven and a half for a game where
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: you have a bad matchup for Cease and a bullpen
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: game on the other side for Tampa. Usually I would
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: not go over a low total because the totals low
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: for a reason. The oddsmakers are telling you they think
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be a low scoring game. But in this
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: particular game, I would lean over in that game. All right,
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: seven in a row, last seven playoff games overall. Okay,
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: so they've all gone over, is what you're saying. I'm
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: still kind of confused by that. But okay, you're just
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: saying that that many games in a row have got
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: over the total in the NBA playoffs, which might be true.
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Maybe I should have been Maybe I
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: should have been paying attention Chris Sale. Yeah he's not
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: pitching today though, Wait is he? No? Actually no, he's not. Yeah.
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: I was gonna say, did I I was gonna say,
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: did I skip it Landa in my handicapping? I did not?
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: NBA coins? What's up? Man? Define promos? I don't know.
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'll just randomly shout people out on the show,
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: and nobody watches my show, so that's not really gonna
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: help people if I do that? Or do you mean, like,
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: do I I don't have any sponsors if that's what
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: you mean. I don't know. I don't know if we're
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: NBA coins? What is that? Is that? A? Is that
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: a cryptocurrency? I don't know what's going on here. All right,
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: I gotta get through these games, though, Man, this is
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: taking a long time Baseball usually does. This is taking
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: even longer. Detroit at the Mets. The Mets actually won
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: yesterday despite being in a return home spot, So, like
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: I said, I thought that was a bad spot, but
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: then that matchup was definitely in favor of the Mets
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: Peralta against Flaherty. I was not gonna take Detroit with
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: that matchup. So the Mets one, you know, I don't
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: know if they're gonna have any sort of delayed return
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: home distraction here or anything like that, but it could
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: be a bounce back spot for Detroit. But the American
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: League is so bad that even these bad National League
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: teams like the Mets are beating the American League. The
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: National League has dominated the interleague series so far. Yes,
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: you have coins for each of the remaining NBA playoff teams.
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: All right, I mean I'll shut you out, man, I'm
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: bringing you up on the screen right now. So NBA coins,
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: check NBA coins out. I don't know who he is
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: at all, but go check him out. He's got cool
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: custom coins for all the remaining NBA Playoff teams, and
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: the only one that I would recommend melting into its
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: precious metal is the Knicks. They're the only team that
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: I really want to see Dunzo gone. The Lakers are
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: already out, so any if any other team wins, I'll
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: be fine with that, But not the Knicks. That's what
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: I gotta say about that, all right. Yes, Detroit at
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: New York is what I was talking about here. The
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: Mets Detroit could be in a bounce back, but Detroit's
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: following on hard times here. The Mets used two relief
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: pitchers yesterday, Detroit used a lot. They used four, and
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: Detroit's bullpen is already the inferior of these two. The
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: Mets bullpen has been okay. They're eleventh, Detroit twenty first,
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: not as good hitting wise, Detroit obviously is better. They're
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: ninth in offense. The Mets are dead last thirtieth. Detroit
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: has from Valdez making his return from suspension. Oh man,
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: from Valdez got suspended for throwing at hitters. I think
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: that was in the game against the Red Sox. Valdez
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: is a total head case, dude. Now, I tell you
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: a creatures have had it, okay, and Valdez goes on
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: tilt a lot, and now is he going to be
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: thrown off by not pitching on schedule now because he
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: last pitched on May fifth, so his suspension did actually
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: delay his next start. Here, does that mean that's gonna
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: throw him off? It might. Plus the fact that he
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: was really bad in that game against a Red Sox
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: team that has not hit well at all this year,
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: that's not a good sign and that was at home,
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: so he might be a little bit out of form
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: right now. On the other hand, you might argue that
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: he'll be pumped to get back out there after the suspension.
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, Valdez is a pretty big wild
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: card in this game, and he was pitching pretty well
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: for the most part, but he does have these just
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: occasional implosions. He had two this year so far against
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: Minnesota and the Red Sox. Overall, his numbers are not
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: very good though four point five to seventy one point
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: four to one whip. I think he is better than that, though,
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: like his numbers got really skewed by that Red Sox game.
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: His home road splits are not very significant, and uh,
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: we gotta look at his numbers against the Mets. Here.
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: Against the Mets, he actually doesn't have very good numbers.
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: They have one hundred and twelve at bats against them. Really,
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: that doesn't seem right, does It was Valdez in the
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: National League and I totally forgot about it. No, he's
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: been on Houston for his whole career. That's weird to me. Man.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: Usually when a guy's been in the other league for
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: his whole career, you don't see a hundred something career
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: at bats. But that's what he's got. I think it's
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: because a lot of these hitters are actually in the
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: American League. But he has one hundred and twelve at
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: bats against this current Mets lineup, two eighty six batting average, allowed,
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: seven to seventy four ohps, twenty six to twelve strike
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio, but seven of those walks are Marcus Semian. Hey,
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: you see, that's why Semian has a lot of the
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: at bats. He was in his division for a while
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: on Texas, and Bobaschett has some of the at bats
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: he was on Toronto, so that does make sense. Juan
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: Soto is in there as well. He was on the
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: Yankees for a while, so yeah, that does make sense
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: all right. But anyway, Valdez does not have good matchup
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: numbers against these particular hitters. Christian Scott is pitching for
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: the Mets. He's really young, and his numbers are pretty
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: good right now. Three point two seven E Ray, one
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: point one to eight whip. He's been really bad at
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: home though, six point seven to five homey Ray. But
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: it was only in one start and it was his
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: first start of his major league career. I believe. Oh no,
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: he made nine starts last year or two years ago.
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: My mistake. That was his first start of this season
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: and he walked five guys. He was really shaky. But
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: his two starts this month were both on the road
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: in hitter friendly parks in Anaheim in and Course Field,
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: and he actually did pretty well. He's got a fourteen
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: to two strike out walk ratio this month, so he's
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: turned it around a It didn't go that deep into
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: those games, but he is trending in the right direction here. Overall,
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: fifteen to seven strike out walk ration, only six hits
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: a lot on eleven innings. He looks like he is
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: talented and has the ability to do damage at a
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: major league level. Two years ago, his numbers were decent
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: at the major league level and Detroit's never seen him before,
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: so you know, I talk about that when a young
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: pitcher has never been seen before by the opposing hitters
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: and he is a pretty good pitcher, which I think
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: he is, that'll give him an extra advantage the hitters
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: have to figure him out. So I actually like the
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: Mets in this game. I think they have the better pitching.
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: Actually throughout this game. You know, Valdez could go out
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: there and pitch well, but his matchup numbers don't look good.
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: He's thrown off schedule. The money looks like it's on Detroit,
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: which I just, yeah, I don't really agree fifty three
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: percent to take a sixty four percent of the cash
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: on Detroit. Mets are a small favorite. Basically pick the
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: winner type of price there. I lean Mets there. Yes, sir,
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: you think the Knicks are not gonna win, but they've
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: had a really, really easy path so far against the Hawks,
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: who don't play deffense and did not really have that
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: experience of a lineup, and the seventy six, who are
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: just an injured mess of a team. The Celtics just
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: completely imploded. It wasn't anything that the Sixers did. Yeah, well,
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: I hope they choke, but their path is pretty easy, dude,
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: Like they might get a home series against Cleveland, and
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: if they don't, they get Detroit, although it is going
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: to be revenge for Detroit. Detroit did play them pretty hard,
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: pretty tough last year in the playoffs. So you know,
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: if I want the Knicks gone, I'd probably prefer they
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: draw out the Pistons because the Pistons have actually given
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: them problems, and I think they did during the regular
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: season this year too, So I'd probably rather have them
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: have to play the Pistons, and it would be a
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: road series for the Knicks if that was the case.
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: Pistons are also the better defense over the Calves, all right,
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: but I think I still think the Calves are gonna
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: beat the Pistons though. Yeah, you can DM me on Twitter. Yeah, yes,
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty active on Twitter, all right, as long as
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: long as you're not trying to fuck with me, all right.
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: Cubs at Atlanta, hear you go? H Garrett, You're Atlanta
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: Braves three wins in a row over the Dodgers and
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: the Cubs. They beat the Cubs yesterday even though it
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: was a return home spot from the Pacific Coast and
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: a potential letdown spot. So I did not like the
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: Braves yesterday and they still won. But one thing I
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: forgot to remember is that they had this big thing,
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: like this big ceremony because Ted Turner and Bobby Cox
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: both died in the last week. Bobby Cox former Atlanta
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: managers or who I remember when I used to watch
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: baseball and used to yes, and Ted Turner of course
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: we all know, the owner of the Braves for a
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: long time and head of you know all the Turner
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: owner of all those Turner Entertainment you know, channels and
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: whatever and a TBS. I believe that that shit anyway,
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: that probably motivated Atlanta more than I expected. I forgot
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: to mention that yesterday I still my hand I think
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: still would have been pretty much the same though, So
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: I was wrong about that game. And in fact, the
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: Cubs only had one hit in the game. They got dominated.
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: In that game, the Cubs scored two runs I don't
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: know how because they only had one head. So yeah,
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: Atlanta dominated them. Cubs used three relief pitchers. Atlanta used
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: three as well, or yeah, use three as well. Both
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: bullpen's have been pretty good. Atlanta's number one in bullpen
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: right now and the Cubs are eighth. Both these teams
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: are really good. Man, we're looking at two of the
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: top three teams in the National League. Atlanta's number one
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: in offense and Cubs are fourth. That's in all of
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: Major League Baseball. Show to Imnaga pitching for the Cubs here,
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: which on the surface you would think that would be
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: a good thing. He's really good. Two point two to
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: eighty ra point nine three whip. He's a little bit
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: worse on the road though, three point three to one
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: Roady Ray, which is still good. But he's dominant at
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: home and he's not quite so dominant on the road.
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: He's looked really good this month fifteen to four strike
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio. He has allowed one run in thirteen
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: innings this month, both starts at home, though the last
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: time he went on the road and faced a good offense,
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers did get to him for four runs and
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: won the game, although the Cubs gave Imanaga no run
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: support there. Overall, his numbers are really good fifty three strikeouts,
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: thirteen walks, thirty one hits a lot in forty seven
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: and a third innings. Nothing to really dislike about any
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: of that, but his numbers against the Braves are not good.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: In forty at bats, three point fifty average allowed nine
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: to forty one ohps. The Braves are one of the
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: few lineups that actually has good offensive numbers against Emanaga,
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: although a lot of it is alb As. However, you
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: pronounce his name five for nine with two of them runs,
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: and Olsen is eight four for eight excusely with a
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: trip ball off of him. They have six strikeouts, one walk,
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: which is also Olsen. Yeah, that kind of takes him
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: off the table for me as far as wanting to
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: back him in this game. JR. Ritchie is pitching for
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: the Braves. I believe he is a rookie. Yep. He's
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: made three career starts all this season. He looked pretty
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: good in his opening start against Washington, and he's been
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: somewhat worse than each start since, which is not good.
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: His walk number is escalated a lot, which is bad.
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: He had six walks in his last outing at Seattle.
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: That's not good, although he did limit the damage still
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: and held him to three earned runs, so he's not
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: a lot more than three earned runs this season. All bees,
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: I still think it's all bs, though I'm pronouncing it
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: like a Latino. Thirteen strikeouts, twelve walks, fourteen hits allowed
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: in seventeen at thirty and he's that walk number is
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: really really bad. Like the rest of his numbers are fine,
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: but that he's got to stop walking people. Man, that's
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: been his major problem. Obviously, He's got a three point
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: six y three ERA, so he is still limiting the
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: damn one point five whip for Richie. Not good. He
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: might have a little bit of an advantage here because
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: the Cubs haven't seen him, but that has been the
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: case with all the offenses he's faced so far. But yes,
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: that is an edge to a young pitcher that does
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: have talent. If the opposing offense hasn't seen him, that'll
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: give him a little bit of an edge. What do
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: we want to do with this game here? Well, I'm
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: staying away from it. I have two plays. I haven't
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: given you either of them yet. I know the money
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: is coming in on the braves here, I might agree. Actually,
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: sixty six percent of tickets eighty nine percent of the
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: cash on the braves, Cubs are around minus one thirty.
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: But the matchup numbers are just pretty bad for imon Naga. Dude,
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: He's certainly capable of going out there and pitching really well. Obviously,
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: he is a really good pitcher, but the matchup is
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: not good. Richie could be a bit under the radar
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: because nobody knows who the hell he is. Might have
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: the unfamiliarity advantage here. I'm probably gonna agree and lean
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: Atlanta slightly there, but it's not gonna make my card.
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: They have sixty six percent of tickets eighty nine percent
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: of the cash. I might be repeating myself. I don't
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: know if I said that yet or not. Yeah, that's
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: a very slight opinion for me in that game, though
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: not strong at all. All right, Pete, what's up? Man?
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: Ted Turner hired Bobby Cox in nineteen seventy seven. That
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: for some reason that makes me feel young, because at
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: least I was not born yet at that point. Kyle,
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: what's up? Things for hanging out? All right? Next game
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: is Kansas City and the White Sox. So Zach is
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: about to come out of the woodwork here. White Sox
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: won the game yesterday six five and won three games
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: in a row. Could possibly be a bounce back for
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: Kansas City here. But I think both teams show up.
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is a divisional series. These teams probably
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: are both motivated to try to win these games in
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: this series. Kansas City used three relief pitchers yesterday, White
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: Sox use four. These are both bad bullpens. White Sox
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: are twenty six, the City twenty fifth. Definitely could fade
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: both these bullpens and whatever you do here. The offense
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: have actually been surprising and pretty good. The White Sox
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: are tenth in offense right now, the Royals eleventh. Interesting. Richie, Yeah,
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: he needs to eliminate the walks. I think he is
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: pretty good. I mean when I handicapped him for his debut,
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: I had positive things to say. Although I tend to
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: lean that way. I like these young guys. Man, I'm
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: gonna I'm gonna sound like John Gruden. I don't know,
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: Like I always have kind of a positive feel for
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: a lot of these like pitchers that are making their
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: debuts and whatever. But I I look at their scouting
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: reports and their minor league numbers and whatever, so you know,
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: all right, anyway, this game, Uh Seth Lugo is pitching
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: for Kansas City. He's been decent overall, but he's his
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: whip is getting up there though, three point two twenty.
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: But his whip is one point three to six, which
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: is not good, but I think there's one bad start
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: in there that's like totally skewing his stats. He's been
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: good on the road one point four to two Roady
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: I Ray. His last start actually wasn't that good. He
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: walked four guys against Cleveland. He's been a little bit
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: iffy this month eleven to six strike out walk ratio.
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: But his started against Seattle was fine. His worst start
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: he got absolutely tagged by Anaheim, but they let him
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: go pretty deep into that game back on April twenty six,
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: But he allowed more than two hits an inning in
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: that game. That's what's skewing his numbers quite a bit. Overall,
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: his numbers are not too bad. Forty two to seventeen
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio. You'd like to see that walk
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: number be lower than that, though, but usually Lugo does
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: not walk this many guys. Forty eight hits alloted forty
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: seven to two thirds innings. Generally, I think Lugo is
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: fairly good. He did have a pretty good start at
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: home against the Cubs or the White Sox, sorry my mistake.
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: The White Sox, so he's playing against today, back on
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: April ninth, held him to one and run and six
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: and a third innings, but he walked four guys in
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: that outing, so that's kind of a problem. But his
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: numbers against the White Sox overall are actually pretty dominant.
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: Fifty four at bats against them, one to eighty five,
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: average allowed, four to ninety five ohps. Lugo does look
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: like he matches up quite well here nine to five
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio is not very good, but overall, I
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: think these are really good matchup numbers, so I would
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: lean towards Lugo pitching well here. Noah Schultz is pitching
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: for the White Sox. You know I like him. I
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: mean he's he made his major league debut earlier this year.
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: He's a very tall lefty who I think throws at
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: a difficult arm angle to pick up. He's got a
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: really disgusting sinker that is his best pitch. He's got
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: a four point six to eighty RRA one point three
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: to two whip. Those are not great numbers. He's been
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: slightly better at home four point three to five homey. RA.
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: Didn't do well in his last doubting. It was on
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: the road against Anaheim, got really tagged for seven earned runs.
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: The rest of his starts were good prior to that, though.
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: He hadn't allowed more than three earned runs in any
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: start prior to that, so maybe that was a little
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: bit of an outlier. But this month he's walked way
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: too many guys. He's had seven walks five strikeouts in
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: his two starts this month. So Schultz is worrying me
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: a little bit, just that his walk number is too
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: high right now. He's got twenty three strike outs, sixteen walks.
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: He's got to get that number down, just like Richie.
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: Because Schultz, I think is a pretty talented pitcher. Don't
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: like to see that. He has a really pretty extreme
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: fly ball right though, which is not what you want
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: to see when you're throwing a sinker. You're supposed to
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: be inducing ground balls, man, So I don't know what's
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: going on with that. He's allowed seventeen hits and twenty
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: five innings. That's good, so he's been pretty unhittable. He's
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: certainly capable of pitching well. Here he's going up against
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: a Royal lineup that has never seen him before. So
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: I talk about how a pitcher usually has an extra
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: advantage against a lineup that hasn't seen him before. So
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: I would lean more towards Schultz actually bouncing back and
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: having a better start in that one. So I would
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: lean under first five innings in that game. Obviously I
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: don't want anything to do with the bullpens. I consider
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: putting that one on my card. The money doesn't like it.
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: Ninety four percent of tickets ninety percent of the cash
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: on the under. Uh. The total for the full game
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: is eight, so you're probably looking at about four four
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: and a half in the first five innings, which I
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: think is pretty reasonable. That's what I would do. You
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: have a Lugo is better than his whip would probably
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: suggest right now, good matchup numbers for him, and unfamiliarity
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: with Schultz, who I think is a little bit better
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: than his numbers suggested. People don't know who he is.
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: So under first five innings is my lean there, and
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: exclude the bullpens that are trash. So that's how I
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: would approach that game. Next game will finally be a
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: play for me, and then I'll take a quick break
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: and then I'll have one more play. So my players
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: are both in the night slate. One of them is
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: one of the later games here. Actually, both of these
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: these next two games they're actually at the same time
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: the seven to forty slate. These are my two plays
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: of the day. They're both at the same time here,
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: but this is the first one. Miami at Minnesota. Let's go.
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: We're gonna play Miami on the money line here. I
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: think Miami has the better pitching throughout this game. And
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: that's kind of where I start with this. But looking
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: at the situation, I mean, Minnesota return home from a
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: road trip yesterday. It wasn't a horrible road trip though.
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: They were returning from Cleveland at the end of the
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: road trip, so that made it a little bit easier.
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: But my Minnesota had a big emotional win yesterday because
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: Bailey Ober had his first career complete game shutout, so
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: it was a big, you know, celebratory win. You know,
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: they dumped the gatorade on him. Ober's pitching well right now, man,
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: Like I thought that he would do well while like
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: he had good matchup numbers, good numbers at home. I
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: thought he might do well while he was out there.
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: Didn't expect that from him though, So Ober might be
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: in a letdown next time he pitches, so that's something
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: to consider it. But Minnesota might be in a letdown
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: spot right now after that in Miami, I think it's
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: the better team, which the odds makers are telling you,
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: even though I know Miami has been bad on the road.
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: They're five and eleven on the road, Minnesota's eleven and
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: ten at home. I get that, But the odds makers
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: are telling you Miami is the better team. So that's
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: what I'm going with here. Like nobody's really gonna want
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: to lay a price with Miami on the road. I
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: don't think, but Miami could be in bounced back mode.
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: It's embarrassing to get shut out, especially by a Minnesota
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: team that has a terrible bullpen. But that terrible bullpen
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: never came into the game because Ober went the complete
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: game yesterday, which yes, that does mean in Minnesota's bullpen
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: is rested, and in fact they haven't pitched for two days.
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: They needed it, but there's still a horrible bullpen. Miami
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: used two relief pitchers yesterday, they didn't really use their
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: best relief pitchers. They still have a bullpen edge. Miami
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: fourth in bullpen. They're a good bullpen, dude, Minnesota. I
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: don't care if they're rested or not. They're ranked second
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: last twenty ninth. They're a bad bullpen, dude, So Miami
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: still has a bullpen advantage here. Offensively, Minnesota is a
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: little bit better sixteenth, Miami nineteenth, not really a big
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: gap between the two. But then we look at the
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: starting pitching. Max Meyer is pitching for Miami, and I
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: think he's still pretty under the radar here man, although yes,
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: the books are pricing him as a favorite on the road,
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: so you know, maybe you can make the argument he's
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: being a little bit overpriced at this point, but you're
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: still basically a pick the winner situation here, and I
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: think he's significantly better. Plus their bullpen is significantly better.
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: Plus it's like a letdown spot potentially for the Twins,
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: a bounce back spot from the Marlins here. So I
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: like all that. Meyer has a two point seven to
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: ninety RA this year and one point one whip. He's
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: pitching well. He's been a little bit worse on the road,
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: but not by much. Still three point oh seven roadra's
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: pretty solid. He's allowed two or fewer earned runs, and
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: all but two starts on the season, including his first
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: one of the season, he's allowed no more than three
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: earned runs in any outing this entire season, forty five
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: to fifteen strike out walk ratio is pretty good. It's
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: right on that threat showal they look for three strikeout
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. Thirty one hits alloted forty two innings is good.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: He's not allowed many hits. He's pitching well, dude. I mean,
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: the one kind of question mark is then maybe he
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: won't go that deep into this game. But I still
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: do like Miami's bullpen too, so I'm not too concerned
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: about that. And he has the extra advantage of unfamiliarity
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: because the Twins have never faced him before, so that
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: should be an extra advantage to Meyer here. So I
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: like how that sets up. And he's going up against
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: Simeon Woods Richardson, who I don't think is particularly good,
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: even though he was decent the last couple of seasons.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: But he's not doing well here. Six point nine to
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: two ERA, one point seven to two whip. He's a
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: little bit better at home, but his ERA is still
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: six point zero six at home. So even though the
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: home road splits are actually against Miami as far as
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: both starting pitchers are concerned, Miami's starting pitchers still has
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: an ERA three runs lower on the road than Woods.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: Richardson's home ray, so I'm still fine with that. Woods
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: Richardson's been bad this month. The only has four strikeouts,
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: three walks, and nine innings. He's allowed nine runs in
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: his two starts here. He hasn't gone five innings since
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: April twenty first. He's only gone more than five innings
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: once all season. This is some bad stuff. Nineteen strikeout,
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: sixteen walks in thirty nine innings and fifty one hits
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: allowed and eight home runs allowed. There's nothing to like
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: about any of those numbers, and an extreme fly ball
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: rate for what that's worth. Not liking that. His numbers
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: against Miami are not horrible, but it's a small fourteen
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: at bat sample. Three to three strike out walk ratio
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: to fourteen average looks good, but the OPS is also
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: not very good because of the three walks and a
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: Stours home run in there. Seven eighty two OPS. So
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: that is above that seven point fifty threshold where I
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: start considering the offense to have some sort of an
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: advantage here. I think they do. We're gonna go with
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: it in Miami is my first play. The money looks
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: like it does agree, and though the public kind of
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: looks like they're on that side as well, eighty one
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, eighty nine percent of the cash on them.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: Public's not always wrong though, man. So you can find
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: this in the minus one twenties somewhere. So that's my
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: first play, Miami money line. You're tailing it all right,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: Let's get it done, man. I can't keep this run up, dude.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: This run is just really really it's one of my
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: hottest runs that I've had, you know, and I've been
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: doing this for a long long time. So at some
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: point there's gonna be a bad down swing. Obviously, I
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: don't want it to happen. Obviously, I'm trying to avoid it.
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: Like my goal is to just have a win of
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: some kind every single day. Though of course to do
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: that today, I think we need both bets to win.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: Uh so we're gonna have to go to and O
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: today for that to happen. That is my goal. But
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: also my goal would be like if I'm gonna have
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: a bad day, it needs to just be slightly bad,
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: Like we need to not have like an oh to
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: four day, you know what I mean. Like it's gonna happen,
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: but it needs to be really rare. And I feel
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: like I've had too many of those, like I've had
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: some add down swings. So pete, thank you, man, what's up? Man?
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: Hopefully hopefully we get it done and hopefully nobody's mad
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: at me, man, because I've been you know again. Yeah,
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, you guys know it's it's a risk, you know.
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: But these are the plays that I'm giving out that
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: I am recommending and betting personally for some amount on
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: some of these at least. But I need I need
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: to ramp that up, man. All right, I'll be right back.
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: The next game is also another one of my plays,
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: and then I'll finish the rest of this off and
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: talk about all the rest of the plays here. Yes,
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: risk reward, yes, yeah, you guys get it all right?
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: One second, alright, I'm back ESPN over here. All they're
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: talking about is well, they're talking about the NFL schedules,
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: but they're talking about the Celtics trading Jalen Brown for Giannis.
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I like that, man. I mean,
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: I know, Yan, this is awesome. He's a stud, but
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: he's also a little bit older. I mean, if the
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: Celtics do something like that, they're gonna have to win
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: another championship immediately pretty much. So I don't know if
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: I like that or not. Thank you sir. The intro,
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah Saw good man, Yeah that's right. Better Call Saw
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: way better than I thought it was gonna be. I
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: love Breaking Bad. One of the best shows ever made
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: in my opinion. It never got bad, like you know,
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: they ended it at the right time. And then Better
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: Call Saw. I was like, yeah, okay, this is gonna
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: be like comic relief. I'll watch it. But it was
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: not really that. It was like an extension of Breaking Bad.
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: Awesome show. All right, what are we doing here? I
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: forget what I'm doing? All right? Next game up? Oh yeah,
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: that's right. The next game up is my last best bet.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: And I know I'm being selective. I only had the
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: one play yesterday. I had one play the day before that.
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: I have two today. It's just the way that it
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: panned out, man, you know, trying to find spots that
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: I like. Well enough, the next game is going to
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: be a total you probably know what it is. San
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: Diego Milwaukee. We're going under seven in this game. I
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: like the pitching in this game, obviously, I mean it
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: almost seems too obvious, but it's one of those games
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: that's like, I don't know, this is like one of them,
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: this is one of my underplays, Like, yeah, you get it.
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: I know that these these pitchers are not really unknown
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: at this point or under the radar. But Milwaukee won
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: the game six to four yesterday, so yesterday's game went over.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: But obviously yesterday's game was not a pitching matchup like
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: this one. I like both bullpens. They saw some usage yesterday.
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee did use their closer. They used three relief pitchers yesterday,
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: but I'm not too concerned by that. Also, San Diego
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: did not use their closer yesterday because they lost the game.
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: They were losing at the end. Their better relievers are
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: pretty much all available, and San Diego is a pretty
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: elite bullpen, so I'm I'm with keeping the bullpens in
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: this equation. San Diego, you know, Mason Miller's available today. Whatever.
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: They're ranked third and bullpen very good. The Brewers have
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: moved up a little bit. They're sixteenth now. Their era
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: is pretty low as well, in the threes, So I'm
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: okay with having the bullpens in this equation, you know,
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: rather than going first five. I still agree with the
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: first five under like three and a half or whatever.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: You might have to get three on it, but I
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: think extending it to the full game because we do
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: get under that key number seven. I think that is
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: the approach here, especially because you know I do like
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: the bullpens, so that is what we're doing. And as
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: I always say, seven is a key number because it
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: breaks the three three tie like some team needs to win.
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: But yes, we need this game to not go into
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: extra innings. Don't want to have to deal with the
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: fucking ghost runners, which need to go away. Hitting wise,
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: by the way, yeah, these teams are not the best
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: offenses either, so that helps the under as well. San
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: Diego's ranked twenty seventh in offense and Milwaukee twenty so
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: we're looking at offenses that have not really broken out
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: here though. Yeah there they got some talent in these lineups,
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: but they haven't been hitting that well this year. And
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: also the pitching I think might be able to hold
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: them down. Michael King is pitching for the Padres. He's
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: having a good season two point seven to sixty RA
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: one point zero five whip. He is a little bit
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: worse on the road, but still a three point one
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: to eighty. Ray is strong, and of course he pitches
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: in a very pitcher friendly park in San Diego, so
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: that's all expected, but still pretty good on the road
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: this month, he's just kind of continuing to pitch the
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: way that he usually does. His walk number is concerning.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: He's got forty five strikeouts, twenty walks, and forty five
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: to two thirds innings, but he's also borderline unhittable at
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: twenty eight hits allowed. He's allowed more than tour in
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: runs only twice this season. So yeah, I'm good with
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: Michael King. But also I mean, yes, he has to
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: get his walk numbers down, but also he has good
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: matchup numbers against the Brewers. He has fifty at bats
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: against him, so we have a good s ample to
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: work with here. Eighteen strikeouts, one walk against them, so
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: he has not had a lot of walks against them.
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: He's striking out a lot of them, and he's held
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: them to a two twenty average and five point thirty
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: five ops. So he has done really well against these hitters.
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: So I like that. And on the other side we
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: get Jacob Mizerouskin. I know everybody's talking about him. He
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: just threw you know, several one hundred and three mile
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: an hour pitches in one game whatever. As a starter,
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: he's the hardest throwing starter in major league history. But yeah,
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, we're gonna back him here anyway. Even though
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: he's hyped right now, there's a reason why two point
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: four to five y point nine to five whip good stuff.
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: He's been basically the same home and away. The splits
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: are just not significant. He had eleven strikeouts in his
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: last outing, in a six inning shutout against the Yankees.
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: And while you could say, well, maybe he'll be in
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot after that, I'm not so sure about
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: that because he's just been pitching well pretty much against
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: everybody he hasn't allowed to yet this season of this season,
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: this month, excuse me, which I know I don't want
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: to jinx that, but yeah, I'm just telling you what
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: the stats are. He's gonna two starts this month. He
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: has nineteen strikeouts and eleven and a third innings, four walks,
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: two hits allowed. He's been almost literally unhittaball, and he
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: hasn't allowed a run this month. He has a ridiculous
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: seventy strikeouts on the season and forty four innings I
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: don't think I've seen a strike out rate that high
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: maybe ever, and seventeen walks. Even though the walk number
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: is too high, the ratio is insane because the strike
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: out rate is unbelievably high and he's only allowed twenty
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: five hits as well. Yeah, so, dude, I mean, major
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: league hitters, they can hit fastballs. But he's so good
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: with it that he just goes out there and still
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: just blows it by everybody. It's just the way that
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: it is, man. And he misses the plate too much
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: and walks too many guys, but whatever, and then he
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: is the Other thing about him is he is pretty
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: inefficient with his pitches. But he's gone six innings in
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: two of his last three outings. That's not too bad.
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: A lot of times he's out of the game in
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: the middle of the sixth inning or whatever. Even if
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: that happens, I think we could still get there with
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: this though. I mean, we're still looking at decent bullpens.
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: Missy Rauski, I think also has another edge here. He's
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: unfamiliar to San Diego, and like I always say, these
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: young pictures who are talented, which we know he is,
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: they usually have a little bit of an extra advantage
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: against these hitters that have never faced him before, so
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: that might help him get a little bit deeper into
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: this game. On Duhar has seen him in his two
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: for two, often with two singles, but that just doesn't
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: really worry me a whole lot because the rest of
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: this lineup has never seen him, So I think he's
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: gonna have an advantage there. So we're gonna go under
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: in this game. San Diego Milwaukee under seven. The money's
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: not agreeing with me. Sixty percent of tickets on the under,
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: seventy two percent of the cash on the over, according
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: to wager talks odd Screen here, which as I keep saying,
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: we need pregame to fix their stuff. Man, it's been
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: over two weeks. It's unacceptable that they're odd screen that
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: a lot of people use as the best free tool
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: out there. Pregame. Yeah, I'm not happy with them. Wayger
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: Talk though. There they're handicappers are way better though, So
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: there is that. So I recommend wayser Talk's content for
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: sure over anybody else's, like their video content on their
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: YouTube whatever. Absolutely recommend that. Okay, yeah, so the money's
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: not agreeing with me, but yeah, we're going under. In
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: that Padres Brewers game. Okay, next game is Arizona, Texas.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: I was correct about this game yesterday. I said that
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: I felt that it was finally gonna be an over
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: in Texas. Even though they're unders have hit in Texas
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: games at home are ridiculous rate. I think they're like
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: fourteen three and two to the under now at home.
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: But that game last night did go over. Wasn't really
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: a fan of the starting pitching in that game, so
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: I was correct it went over. I was never gonna
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: actually make that a play though, but yes, you know,
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: it would have been going against a really strong trend,
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: but it did happen. In that game, Texas used two
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers. Texas won the game. I think seven to four.
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: Texas does have a good bullpend, but I believe Lots
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: is their closer and they did use him in that game. Arizona,
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: I still don't like their bullpen. They used two relief
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: pitchers yesterday, including Fott, who has been relegated to the bullpen.
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: Now maybe that's helping their bullpen a bit. Bullpen wise,
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: Arizona is ranked number two, even though their ERA is
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: still lower than half of the teams in baseball, so
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: I still don't like their bullpen, even though they have
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: the second best WHIP. Maybe I'm underrating them. I don't know, man,
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: Texas has a really good bullpen though they're ranked fifth
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: right now, but they have the best bullpen the ray.
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: I don't really think it's crazy to say that Texas
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: is the better of these two bullpens. I believe they are.
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: Their era is significantly better. Hitting wise, both teams have
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: been bad. Actually, Texas has actually overtaken Arizona. Texas is
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: twenty third, Arizona twenty sixth, So these teams have not
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: been good offensively. This game does not look like a
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: game where I'd want to go under by the way,
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: even though I know Texas strong under trend in this stadium.
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: It's a pitcher friendly stadium. Texas has pretty good pitching,
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: but not necessarily in this game, and Arizona has Ryan
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: Nelson on the mountain. You know, I'm not a fan.
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: Five point six to eighty RRA one point two to
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: six whip is actually not too bad, though he's been
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: way better on the road though two point nine to
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: five Roadiray. Arizona is a hitter friendly ballpark, but that
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: is still an extreme split there. His ERA is like
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: six runs lower on the road, so he might be
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: able to pitch well here. He's actually done well this month.
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: He's allowed two earned runs and two starts this month,
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: one at Wrigley Field and one at home against the Mets,
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: and you know, not easy to pitch in Wrigley, but
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: he pitched well in that one. He's got an eleven
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: to three strike out walk ratio this month. That's not bad.
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: So he is in decent form right now. But his
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: numbers against Texas are very bad and fifty five at
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: bats seven to five, strike a walk racio three, forty
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: five batting average allowed nine eight two ohps. So his
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: home road splits look good. Here, his current form looks good.
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: His matchup numbers are terrible against Texas, so and you know,
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: just generally, I don't think Nelson is that good of
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: a pitcher. Last year looked like kind of a fluke
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: to me. I don't know what that was, so I
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: wouldn't really have a problem with fading Nelson in this game.
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: Kumar Rocker is getting these start for the Rangers. He
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: hasn't been that good five point zero one ERA, one
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: point five to two whit, but he is way better
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: at home three point four to eight HOMEIRA, so he
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: has significant home road splits as well. So both starters
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: are are on the good side of their very significant
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: home road splits. A Rockers like four, his ra at
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: home is four runs lower than it is on the
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: road at three point four to eight. He's been really
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: bad month though. He's failed to even go four innings
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: and both of his starts twelve point seven to one
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: ERA five to three strike up walk ratio. That's ugly.
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: Starts at Detroit and at home against the Cobs not
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: easy lineups to face, though the Diamondbacks lineup is gonna
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: be easier than those two. Overall, he's got a twenty
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: seven to thirteen strike out walk ratio. I don't love that.
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's too many walks, thirty six hits a
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: lot in thirty two and a third innings. Yeah, these
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 1: numbers aren't great, although I don't think they're absolutely horrible either.
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: He's veter at home, and he does have an unfamiliarity
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: edge against the Diamondbacks. They haven't seen him before, so
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: that might help him a little bit here. Yeah, I mean,
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I'm probably gonna lean slightly to
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: Texas here because I would prefer the unfamiliarity of Rocker
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: over Nelson having really bad matchup numbers. But the money
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: is coming in on Arizona eighty percent of tickets, ninety
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: four percent of the cash on them. But I think
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: Texas has a bullpen edge as well, so I don't
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: really agree with that money Texas. This is a very
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: short price right now. But remember the National League has
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: also dominated the American League so far. And by the way,
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: I keep forgetting to mention what's happened in the series
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: so far. These teams will split the series so far,
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: and I yeah, so I think both teams are gonna
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: show up for that reason. I think this is the
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: end of the series, so they're trying to win the series.
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: San Diego and Milwaukee, by the way, continue their series
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: into tomorrow. So yeah, Milwaukee has won the only game
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: in that series so far. Just for what that's worth anyway, Yeah,
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: I could also see the arguments for the over again
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: in this game. I could see both pitchers struggling a
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: little bit here. Totals at eight and a half, which
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: is pretty high for Texas total, though Texas toast now Texas.
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: Their home totals have averaged like below six runs a
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: game though, so including last night's game, even though that
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: went over so whatever, just throwing all the information out there,
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: I don't have a good opinion on that game though.
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: Seattle at Houston this game, this series is going to
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: continue tomorrow as well. Seattle has won both games in
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: the series so far, including a blowout ten to two
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: win yesterday. Maybe Houston's gonna be in bounce back mode
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: from that. But Seattle's definitely the better team, even though
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: they're below five hundred. I think they're definitely better than that.
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: Houston has not been good in a large part of
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: that is because They're pitching has been awful. Seattle's obviously
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: the way better pitching team, including in the bullpen, obviously
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: as far as the bullpens are concerned. But Seattle might
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: start overlooking Houston at some point, which might be the
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: problem here. Seattle only these two relief pitchers yesterday, though
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: Houston also used two. But their bullpen is absolutely atrocious.
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: Houston is the worst bullpen in baseball. Their rays above
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: six again unbelievably bad. They're ranked dead last horrible bullpen.
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: Seattle's is actually pretty good. They're ranked fourteenth, but their
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: eerray is quite good. I think Seattle is probably be
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: a top ten bullpen. Offensively, Houston is the better team.
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: They're fifth right now. Seattle's been hitting better recently though
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: it's seventeenth, so that's not too bad. Bryce Miller is
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: making his return for Seattle. He started the season on
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: the injured list. It's dude, He's definitely gonna be a
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: mystery coming into this game because he looked pretty good
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: when he started out his career with Seattle. He was
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: decent in his first season. His whip was good one
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: point one four and twenty twenty three indicated that his
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: ERA should have been better than it was at four
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: point three two, and then he was excellent in twenty
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: twenty four, had a two point nine four ERA and
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: point nine to eight whip. Very good. Last year he
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: had a lot of injury problems though, and he never
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: really got on track. He was really bad last year
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: five point six to EIGHTYRA, one point four to one whip.
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: But we know, based on his career prior to that,
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: he's obviously better than that, and the injury has definitely
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: derailed him a bit. Now the question is going to
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: be is he going to be back in form or not.
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: I have no idea, dude. Sometimes it's hard to come
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: back from injury. It is easier when you're younger, and
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: he is only twenty seven, so he might be able
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: to do it. I looked at his minor league numbers.
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: He's made like three or four minor minor league starts.
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: He was pretty good in like single A, double A,
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: whatever it was, but he wasn't that good in Triple A.
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: He made two, like really short appearances in Triple A,
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: and his era was like in the fours and his
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: whip was like one and a half, So that isn't good.
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: He didn't pitch that well in triple A. But of
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: course they're gonna bring him back up anyway because they
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: know how good he has been for them in the past.
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: So I'm gonna pass on this game. A lot of times,
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 1: the guy who is an established pitcher, which I think
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: he is at this one, A lot of times those
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: guys will pitch well in their first game back, and
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: they will bounce back. Miller generally has pitched pretty well
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: against Houston, surprising, only five of their hitters have ever
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: faced him, though they have thirty two at bats against
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: him two nineteen and average seven oh two ops five
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: to two strike out walk ratio, So those numbers are
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: pretty good from Miller. I'm probably gonna lean more towards
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: Miller pitching well here than not, but I don't know, man,
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: it's just for me. I don't want to jump in
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: on this game. If he was like totally dominating a
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: triple A, maybe, but I don't know. Man. He's going
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: up against Lance McCullers, who has not pitched well for
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: Houston at all this year seven point four to one,
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: one point five whip. He's been basically just as bad
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: home and away. It doesn't really matter. He's been bad, dude.
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: I don't know what else to say. He's had multiple
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: walks in every outing except his first one, which was
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: his really only good start against the Red Sox. Since then,
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: he's been awful. He's got a thirty seven to twenty
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio. That is some bad stuff. Thirty
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: one hits a lot in thirty four innings isn't that
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: bad though, So if he stops walking people, he'd actually
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: be pitching well. His strikeout rates good. He hasn't allowed
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: that many hits. Yeah, so the problem is the walks.
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: If you could figure that out, he actually might be
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: good again. Numbers against Seattle are not good, and this
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: includes his career back when he was better, because of
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: course mccullor's he's at the point in his career where
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: he just is unable to come back from the injuries
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: and surgeries and whatever. Man, but these numbers include like
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: back when he was pretty good. I think he's got
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: eighty career at bats against Seattle, twenty three strikeouts, eleven walks.
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: That's a lot of walks to eighty seven batting average,
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: a lot eight eleven ops. Mccullors has not done well
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: against Seattle, just generally, so I am gonna lean to
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: Seattle again in this game. The money's disagreeing. Seventy two
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on Seattle, sixty nine percent of the
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: cash on Houston. The total is pretty high at nine.
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: Part of that because we have a horrible Houston bullpen.
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: But I think you could definitely make the argument you
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: have a better starting pitching matchup with you have the
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: better or of the starting pitching matchup with Seattle, and
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: you definitely have the better bullpen with Seattle and Seattle
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: is not. They're not really that expensive of a price here,
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 1: you know, I think they are. They're definitely the better team,
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: and they're at like minus one twenty something. Yeah, I
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: like Seattle in that one. Not gonna be a play
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: for me, though, as I said, all my players have
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: already been given out Saint Louis at the A's. We
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: got the win with Saint Louis last night. I'm happy
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: about that. I liked my handicap, especially the part of
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: it about the home road splits, but also the fly
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: ball versus groundball stuff where Pyonte is a ground ball pitcher,
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: that would you know, I felt would play better in
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: a home run stadium like this awful Sacramento stadium, the
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: A's playing whereas Springs is a fly ball pitcher, so
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: balls spring into the air off of his bats. So
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: I liked that. But now we got a handicapp Today's
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: game man. So that was also a spot where the
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: A's were returning home from a road trip flying cross country.
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis was already in California, so that was also
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: a big part of the handicap. I liked it. But
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: now the A's could be in a bounce back mode
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: now they're back at home. A lot of times when
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: a team returns home, they don't have a good game
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: in that game, they get the stuff they need to
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: get done at home out of the way, and they
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: play a lot better in the second game. That might
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: happen here, but I don't really want to bank on
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: it here. I don't like the A's bullpen. They used
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: four relief pitchers yesterday. I don't like Saint Louis's bullpend either,
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: and they used four relief pitchers yesterday as well as
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: a ranked twenty third Saint Louis twenty second and bullpen,
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: so these are both bullpens that are definitely fatable here.
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: The A's have been a good hitting team. They're eighth,
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: and Saint Louis has been decent as well. They are
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: at fifteenth right now, so yeah, the A's probably do
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 1: have a little bit better hitting team. Matthew liber Torre
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: is gonna get the start for Saint Louis. Four point
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: zero seventy Ray doesn't look too bad, but his one
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: point four to three whip is pretty bad. He's putting
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: too many guys on base. He's been better on the road, though,
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 1: three point one to eight roady Ra. So he's in
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: the better of his home road splits here. But then
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: the question is is he going to be able to
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: pitch well in the as stadium? And I don't know
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: about that because he is not Pai pone with all
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: his ground balls. No, Libratore is an extreme fly ball pitcher,
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: so I don't love that in the stadium. Don't love
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: his walk numbers either. He's walked too many guys this
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: month five walks to ten strikeouts this month, even though
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: he's ERA this month is two point three to one
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: and starts against the Dodgers and San Diego. He only
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: allowed three combined runs, but overall twenty nine to sixteen
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio. So again recently and overall, his walk
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: numbers way too high. Forty four hits allowed in forty
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: two innings. That's not very good either, So I yeah,
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: I just don't trust him here. Man. His numbers against
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: the A's are actually pretty good though, in thirty one
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: at bats, nine strikeouts, one walk, two fifty eight average allowed,
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: six ozh four ops. So Libra Torre has pretty good
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: numbers here. He's in the better of his home road splits,
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 1: but he walks too many guys, and I do not
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: trust him because he's a fly ball pitcher. Man. JT.
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: Ginn is pitching for the A's. He's been pretty good
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: this year three point six one point one to three whip.
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 1: He's still kind of a converted reliever though. But the
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: problem with him is his home road splits are insane.
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 1: He's been horrible in this stadium at home seven point
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 1: six y two home era. His homeyra is six runs
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: higher than it is on the road. Right now, you
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: cannot trust him to pitch in the stadium, man, you
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: just can't do it. Even though he just had an
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: excellent start on the road against Philly, of course it
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: was on the road. He went eight innings, allowed one
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: and run, eight strikeouts, one walk. But his start before
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: that at home he had five walks, five and runs
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: a lot against a Cleveland team that can't hit that well.
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't trust gin can't trust him at home.
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: He's got thirty one strike outs fifteen walks. That's not
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: a good ratio. Twenty seven hits allowed in thirty seven
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: at third innings is good though He's not that hittable.
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: He is more of a ground ball pitcher. Though, so
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: you would think he would be better at home, but
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: that just hasn't been the case. So I don't think
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: I could trust him. He is unfamiliar to Saint Louis, though,
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: that is a little bit of an advantage that he
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: does have, is that they haven't seen him before. But
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: they are just too many moving parts in this game. Man,
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: I can't figure it out in my mind. What are
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: we looking at it? I'm trying to look at the
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: market read here. Oh yeah, it's gonna be in the
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 1: interleague section. Yes, that's right. Aas have sixty percent of
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: ticket sixty six percent of the cash on them, thinking
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: they might bounce back here. I don't necessarily disagree with that,
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: because again might start pitching better at home because he
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: does induce ground balls. The A's aren't a bounced back spot.
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: I'm not really gonna disagree with the A's here. They're
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: about a minus one forty price though. But again, like
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 1: I said yesterday, even though I liked Saint Louis yesterday,
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis is overrated. The odds makers are telling you
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: by lining the A's as a favorite, they're telling you
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: the A's are actually kind of the better team here,
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 1: even though Saint Louis has the better record, and I
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 1: chose to ignore that yesterday because I liked the situation
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: a lot for Saint Louis. But they're on my radars
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: being a team that is going to regress. They're not
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: as good as the record looks. So this is a
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: game where I don't really have a strong opinion towards
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis here. So yeah, I might lean towards the A's,
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: but that's not strong for me either. The totals ten,
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: you know, it usually is around there in a stadium
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: like this, money's coming in on the over It makes
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: sense in a way. I mean, Gin's been bad at home.
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: Lebratory is a fly ball pitcher. Both bullpens are bad.
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't really disagree with an over there, but not
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: gonna make, you know, make my card or anything like that.
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: San Francisco at the Dodgers. The Dodgers have lost four
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: games in a row. These teams play tomorrow as well,
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: so the Dodgers are not on the verge of of
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: getting swept yet because these teams will play tomorrow as well.
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: But you gotta think the Dodgers are gonna bounce back here.
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: They're clearly the way better team, and they're they're you know,
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna lose three games in a
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: row to San Francisco, though of course it is easier
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: for that to happen when they've already lost two of them.
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: But I thought they were gonna be in a bounce
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 1: back spot yesterday didn't happen. I think they're in a
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: bounce back spot today as well. You know, I really
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: do not expect them to lose this game. I don't Dodgers,
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 1: you know, the way better team, having lost four games
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 1: in a row. Now, having lost two games in a
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: row to San Francisco, you gotta think they're gonna come
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 1: in with a lot of effort here. Dodgers used three
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday, uh, San Francisco used four. And I
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: think San Francisco's bullpen is better than their twentieth ranking
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 1: would suggest. Their rake twentieth then whip, but their era
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 1: is pretty good. I think they do have a pretty
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: good bullpen. The Dodgers have been good. Though they're seventh
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 1: in bullpen. You could argue that Dodgers have a slightly
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 1: better bullpen right now. I think it's close the Dodgers
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: have a way better offense though, third in offense, San
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: Francisco second last twenty ninth, so yeah, there's no question
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers have the better offense. Robbie Ray is getting
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 1: the start for the Giants. He's been pretty good two
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 1: point seven to six ERA, one point zero nine whip.
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: Not as good on the road though, four point one
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 1: to five ROADRA kind of makes sense, and San Francisco
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: has a pitcher friendly ballpark, so Ray is definitely more
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: fadable on the road. He's pitched pretty well this month
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 1: so far. One road start, one home start, twelve to
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 1: four strike out walk ratio two point nine two ERA
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: this month not bad. Overall, numbers pretty decent. Forty seven
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 1: strike cuts, eighteen walks it's a little bit high. Thirty
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: two hits allout in forty five to two thirds innings
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 1: is pretty good. Yeah. Overall, Ray has been good. He
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 1: hasn't a lot more than three e runs in any outing.
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: But he is going up against the La Dodgers here.
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: His numbers are not very good against them. One hundred
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: and thirty seven at bats they're really familiar with them,
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: forty strike gouts, nineteen walks That is a lot of
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 1: walks to seventy seven batting average allot nine to fifty
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: seven ops. He's a lot of eleven home runs to them,
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 1: which is a lot. So he does not do well
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 1: against the Dodgers. So again, this might finally be the
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 1: spot where the Dodgers' bats are gonna break out. People
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 1: might think Ray looks good because the ERA looks good.
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 1: Doesn't look like a good matchup for him. He is
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: worse on the road as well. Sho Hey Otani's pitching
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 1: for the Dodgers, and he's been he's been one of
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 1: the best pitchers in baseball, you know, because he just
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: does everything point nine to seven ERA point eight point
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 1: eight to one whip. I mean, give me a break.
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 1: He hadn't allowed more than one run in in the
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: outing until his last outing at Houston were Oh No.
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: He allowed two earned runs on two solo home runs
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 1: in that outing. Houston does have a pretty good offense.
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 1: Though he had eight strikeouts no walks in that one.
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 1: It went seven innings. I'm not concerned. He's got a
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 1: forty two to nine strikeout walk ratio, hadn't allowed a
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 1: home run before that game. Twenty one hits allowed in
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 1: thirty seven innings. All of his numbers are really good.
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 1: He actually pitched against San Francisco once this year and
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 1: shut them out for six innings, seven strikeouts, no walks,
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 1: five hits. He dominated them. He's pitched against them before
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 1: as well, and he has dominant numbers against San Francisco
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 1: pretty much seventy three at bats, twenty five strikeouts, three walks,
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 1: one ninety two average allowed five to twenty five. So
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: quite clearly there's a huge matchup edge here for Otani Overay.
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: Based on what these matchup numbers look like, I think
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 1: the way to play this is to lay the run
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 1: line with the Dodgers. I know I said that yesterday,
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: but I think you want to take full advantage of
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 1: the fact that they have the starting pitching edge here.
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 1: The bullpen's a little bit of a wash, But if
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 1: you're gonna play the run line, you probably want the
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: full game to do it. Even though I know it's
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 1: the home team. They might not bat in the ninth inning.
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 1: You're probably getting the minus one and a half at
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 1: about a minus one ten price, I would guess in
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 1: this game, because the Dodgers are about minus two forty
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 1: on the money line. I would not lay a money
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 1: line like that unless I was gonna moneyline parlay it.
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 1: But you know, I don't like doing that, And if
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 1: I was gonna parlay, I would only do it. I
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 1: would make it a two leg parlay, so you reduce
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 1: the variants as much as possible. I would. I would,
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 1: you know, what a parlay Dodgers' money line and Detroit
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 1: Piston's money lines that I might be a decent two
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 1: team par and get the price down on both them.
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 1: I don't mind that idea, but I hate parlays. So
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 1: but I'm just you know, spitballing ideas here. But yeah,
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: the money is coming in on the Dodgers eighty percent
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 1: of tickets, ninety one percent of the cash on them.
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 1: That is probably what I would do, though I'd probably
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 1: lay the run line with the Dodgers to finally get
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: it done there. With the Dodgers, either they it's like
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 1: either they lose outright or they win by more than
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: one run. Like you know, there's almost nothing in the
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 1: middle there. So they are one of those teams where
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 1: you do want to play the run line with them.
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 1: It is a fairly low total though, it's seven and
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: a half, but you know again, Ray, his matchup numbers
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 1: just don't look very good. So all right, WNBA, we
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 1: have four games here. This is gonna be a long episode.
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 1: I don't really have a great read on these games here.
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 1: Seattle at Toronto. Toronto is a new team. They're an
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 1: expansion team. So, as I keep pointing out, these expansion
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: teams need time to gel whatever. But Portland is able
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 1: to pull off the huge upset last night. So you know,
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 1: the expansion team, they go through the expansion draft, they
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 1: pick players that are unprotected by the other teams, and
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 1: then that team. Usually it does take a little while
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 1: for that chemistry to develop. But Portland won their second
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 1: game outright, Maybe Toronto will be able to do the same.
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, they played pretty well in their first game,
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 1: and they're actually a favorite in this game. Seattle. People
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 1: remember them being pretty good last year. They're not really
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 1: that good this year. They're coming off a win over
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 1: Connecticut that wasn't really a great win. They're traveling from
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 1: Connecticut to Toronto. Maybe Seattle does bounce back from kind
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 1: of a lackluster effort there, but Toronto being own one
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 1: yet they're favored by three three and a half points here.
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 1: If the public looks at this, they're not gonna play
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 1: Toronto here. You know, an expansion team that lost their
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 1: first game, Why would anybody want to bet them as
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 1: a favorite, right, I'm probably gonna lean that way. They'll
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 1: all probably lean Toronto favorite price, but you lay the points.
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 1: But I'm not gonna that's not a play for me.
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 1: Vegas at Connecticut on USA Network. This is a complete
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 1: misman Vegas is a huge favorite. Vegas is they're the
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 1: returning champs. There's still one of the top teams in
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 1: the league. I know they lost that home opener horribly.
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 1: I've had a good read on this Vegas team, and
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: both of my WNBA plays involved them, and we got
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 1: them both right. I said, fade them in their home opener,
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 1: their rings ceremony, revenge for the finals, revenge for Phoenix there.
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 1: Then I said Vegas would bounce back after they had
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 1: a horrific game in that first game, and both of
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 1: those things happen. Now Vegas is flying to the East
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 1: Coast though from LA so they played both their games
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 1: in the Pacific time zone so far. Now they're going
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 1: to the East Coast off a blowout win. They're going
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 1: to play Connecticut, who suck. And Connecticut might be moving
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 1: to Boston. I'm not so sure I think they are.
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Connecticut is staying at home and haven't
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: won a game yet and they have not left the
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 1: Eastern time zone. Yeah, i'd leank Connecticut here. It's a
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 1: weird spot. And Vegas is laying fourteen points here, fourteen
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 1: and a half at some place, thirteen and a half
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 1: in some places as well. The money is agreeing with
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 1: me on Connecticut. I almost want to say Yukon, but
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 1: this is not Yukon. This is the Connecticut WNBA team.
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 1: Sixty percent of tickets, eighty four percent of the cash
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 1: on them. The money seems to agree. That would be
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 1: my lean, but I don't want to make it a
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 1: play obviously, but yeah, I would lean towards taking the
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 1: points with Connecticut, although it is definitely a mismatch. Chicago
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 1: at Golden State. These two teams they think are both
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 1: improved this season. We know, as I keep pointing out
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 1: Golden State, they have a really expensive roster this year.
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 1: They loaded up with talent. Man They're a team that
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 1: was an expansion team not that long ago. The Golden
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 1: State Valkyries they're staying at home. But they did just
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 1: blow out Phoenix. But you know, I wish I made
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 1: that a play because you remember Phoenix was off that
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 1: blowout revenge win over Vegas. They're clearly in a letdown spot.
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 1: Golden State easily got the job done. Now they're two
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 1: to zero. They're laying points here to Chicago. Chicago's one
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 1: to oh Chicago hasn't been tested yet, So Chicago beat Portland.
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 1: You know, I don't know if Chicago's got some of
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 1: their players back that were injured. I think they are
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 1: a better team this year. I think getting rid of
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 1: Angel Reese is actually gonna help them. You know, I
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 1: think both these teams are pretty good. Golden State could
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 1: be in a little bit of a letdown off of
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 1: that kind of blowout win in their last game against
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 1: Phoenix and their home opener. I'll probably slightly lean towards Chicago,
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 1: but I don't have a good read on this game.
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 1: The money does agree seventy two tickets ninety three percent
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 1: of the cash on them, and no, I'm not doing
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 1: that intention. I'm trying to go through my actual reads
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 1: and then if the market agrees with me, it agrees
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 1: with me. If a dozen A doesn't, and I'll act accordingly,
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 1: five and a half is the number here. Golden State
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 1: is the favorite, and yes, I think they are the
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 1: better team, which people might not think. Maybe the public
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 1: will be on Chicago, but I don't know, because Chicago
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 1: was so bad last year. It seems like the public
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 1: doesn't really love Chicago. Public's probably not really getting involved
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 1: in the WNBA anyway. And then the final game is
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 1: also on USA Network in the doubleheader Indiana at LA.
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 1: It seems like the public maybe doesn't want Indiana right now,
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 1: even though they have Caitlin Clark, they have Sophie Cunningham,
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 1: they're all back. By the way, Sophie Cunningham in the
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 1: Sports Illustrated Swimsuit edition or whatever that was. Yeah, that
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 1: was that was not bad, you know, I I looked.
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 1: I observed it for science. Sophie Cunningham. Yeah, I'm a fan,
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 1: let's say that. But anyway, Indiana lost their opener to Dallas.
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 1: Indiana was the favorite in that game. It's kind of
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 1: an ugly loss. But again, I mean, I think their
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 1: chemistry maybe isn't up to snuff right now because Cunningham, Clark,
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 1: like these players were all hurt when they went through
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 1: their playoff run last year. This Indiana team, I think
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 1: is a contender this year. So I kind of like
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 1: Indiana in this game. Their favorite on the road. They're
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 1: favored for a reason, they are the better team. But yes,
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 1: they are having to go to the Pacific Coast for this,
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 1: but I think they might be in bounced back mode
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 1: off of that ugly upset loss that they had in
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 1: the first game. LA did just get crushed by Vegas though,
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 1: and they are staying at home, so they could be
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 1: in bounce back spot as well. I never really want
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 1: to fade a team that's coming off an ugly, ugly
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 1: loss like that, which both these teams are coming off
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 1: kind of ugly losses, although Indiana's was a lot more
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 1: competitive and Indiana's was still you know, the whole thing
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 1: Clark against Becker's, you know from back in the that
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 1: was Indiana against Dallas. That was the you know, that's
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 1: the new rivalry because there were both number one draft picks,
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 1: and that was Iowa versus Yukon in the tournament and
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 1: whatever back in the in women's college basketball, whatever. But yes,
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 1: I would lean Indiana here. They're laying one and a half. Now,
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 1: the money looks like it kind of came in against
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 1: them early. They're minus one and a half. It might
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 1: go back up a little bit though. I don't know.
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 1: But my last play that I made on Vegas, that
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 1: number actually went against me. It went down. I don't know.
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 1: I don't know what that was about. But yeah, I
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 1: don't have a strong opinion though, on any of these games.
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 1: Here all right, Sophy Cunningham, as she comes to Boston,
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 1: You're gonna go to all the games? Yeah, I don't
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 1: know if that's gonna happen, but yeah, I have no idea. Man,
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 1: Indiana played in Boston last year because I remember I
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 1: was going to a comedy show that night or a
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 1: concert or something. I saw all the dude. Even though
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 1: it was against the New England team, the Connecticut team
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 1: that I think is now gonna be the Boston team,
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 1: everybody that I saw that was going to the game
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 1: was wearing like a Caitlin Clark jersey. Everyone was wearing
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 1: an Indiana jersey. I'm like, this is ridiculous, man. It
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 1: was Indiana against Connecticut in that matchup. I believe Indiana
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 1: won that game as well. I mean they probably did
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 1: because Connecticut sucked anyway. NHL. We have one game in
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 1: the NHL. It is Minnesota and Colorado. Game five back
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 1: in Colorado. Colorado leads the series three to one. I
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 1: mean they've been the better team, man, I mean, I
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 1: know they won the last game five to two. We
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 1: had a win in each of the last two games,
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 1: although we did lose on the under in the second
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 1: game of the series on an empty net goal. I'm
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 1: pissed about that. But then we came back with Minnesota
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 1: in the next game and won. We came back zigzagged
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 1: again with Colorado in the last game and won. Now
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 1: five to two. It is a little bit misleading if
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 1: you look at it, with the fact that there were
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 1: two empty net goals at the end. Each team had
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 1: one power play goal, so even strength, Colorado did win
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 1: the game, I believe, two to one if you look
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 1: at only the even strength goals. But the game was
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 1: not really a five to two game. However, Colorado did.
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 1: They were the better team in the game, man. They
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 1: had thirteen more shots, They had way more scoring opportunities
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 1: throughout the game. Minnesota scored on their first one and
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 1: then basically didn't score again. Colorado won the face off
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 1: battle had more hits. I told you coming into the series,
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 1: I thought it was not a good matchup from Minnesota Colorado.
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 1: I think got lucky that they got Minnesota instead of
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 1: Dallasalla has given Colorado a ton of problems Minnesota. Minnesota
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 1: not so much. Even though they split the season series,
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 1: Colorado statistically was pretty clearly the better team. I think
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 1: Colorado is gonna win the game here. I mean that
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 1: game was pretty close, and it might kind of just
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 1: take the wind out of Minnesota sales. You know, they
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 1: don't got the wind in this sound if anybody knows
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 1: that Weezer song from the Underrated White album. This game's
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 1: on TNT, True TVHBO Max by the way. But yeah, Minnesota,
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 1: they're down three to one now. They're gonna have to
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 1: somehow win three games in a row, two of them
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 1: as big underdogs in Colorado. That's not gonna happen. I
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 1: think it might end tonight, But I don't think you
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 1: can lay a price like this. I mean, Colorado's at
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 1: minus two hundred now, which I think is a heavier
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 1: favorite than they were in the first couple of games
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 1: in the series. I don't think you could do it
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 1: eighty eight percent of tickets ninety percent of the cash
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 1: on them. I mean, if you want to throw them
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 1: in a money line parlay, I guess, but I mean
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 1: I don't love it, but I do lean in the
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 1: direction of Colorado winning this game. So do with that
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 1: information what you want. I would not lay like a
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 1: puck line or anything like that, though, I don't know.
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, unless if you wanted to do that split
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 1: bet thing and do puck line money line to make
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 1: it a minus one puck line. I guess maybe at
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 1: least it's been a high scoring series, so there is
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 1: that totals at six and a half. I don't have
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 1: a good gauge on the total in that one. I mean,
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 1: I think, really under I think might be worth maybe
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 1: considering here because two of these games only went over
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 1: because of empty net goals, you know, so this game,
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 1: this series has been lower scoring than it looks like,
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 1: but you always have to worry about the empty nets.
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 1: Maybe in this game you don't of Colorado. Well, I
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, if Colorado is winning by a decent amount,
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is still gonna go empty net at the end
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 1: of that game. So I don't know. I don't have
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 1: a good feel for it. And then there's only one
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 1: NBA game tonight as well, which is Cleveland and Detroit
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 1: Game five tie series. Detroit is the favorite, and of
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 1: course we know that Cleveland has been an extreme home
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 1: road split team in the playoffs. They've lost every single
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 1: road game. They've failed to cover every single road game,
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 1: and they've won every single home game, and they've covered
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 1: all but one home game. So that's Cleveland. That would
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 1: mean that you want to look to Detroit here though,
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 1: because Cleveland has not been good on the road, and yes,
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 1: during the regular season, Detroit was very good at home,
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 1: though Cleveland was decent on the road even without James Harden.
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 1: We got to kind of look at what's happened in
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 1: this series. There could be a zigzag component to this
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 1: where Detroit. This series has been a very home centric series.
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 1: Detroit won and covered both games at home. Cleveland then
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 1: won and covered both games at home. So if that
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 1: zig zig zag zag continues, yeah, Detroit makes sense in
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 1: this game. For that reason, if you look at what
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 1: happened in the previous game. I have some conflicting thoughts
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 1: about this, because if you look at the game flow,
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 1: Cleveland should have won this game by more than they
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 1: did then won the game by nine, but they were
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 1: dominating the game in the second half, like they were
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 1: winning this game by almost twenty points, actually more than
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 1: they were winning by twenty one actually in the fourth quarter,
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 1: or maybe even more than that. So yeah, this game
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 1: only being a nine point finish does not tell the
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 1: story like Cleveland was way ahead in this game. So
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 1: that would lead me to want to lean towards Cleveland
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 1: in this next game, because Cleveland was actually better than
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 1: they looked on the scoreboard in that way. But if
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 1: you look at the stats in this game, there are
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 1: some that indicate that that same thing, and there are
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 1: some that indicate in the other direction. Now, Detroit did
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 1: shoot really well in the game. They shot fifty one
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 1: percent from the field forty three percent from three, but
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 1: Cleveland actually hit more threes because they took almost twice
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 1: as many. But there is a regression point here where, yes,
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 1: Detroit really is probably not gonna shoot as well again,
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 1: even though they are going to be at home. Detroit's
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 1: not a great shooting team. They're definitely going to regress
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 1: at least somewhat from three point range. So that's another
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 1: check for Cleveland coming into this game. But the one
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 1: issue I really have with it, besides the fact that
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 1: I already gave you a check on Detroit for being
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 1: at home, the other thing that would indicate towards Detroit
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 1: is Cleveland had a massive free throw disparity in this game.
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 1: They went to the line twenty two more times in
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 1: the game and they hit twenty one more free throws
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 1: in the game. That's insane. That is a major, major discrepancy. Man.
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 1: You gotta think that there is no way that the
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 1: foul calling is going to be that lopsided again. And
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 1: I don't even know how that happened, because Detroit won
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 1: the rebound battle again. I think Detroit has won the
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 1: rebound battle in all four games in the series so far,
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 1: and usually that's kind of an indicator of who the
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 1: better team is. I thought Detroit would not do well
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 1: rebounding in this series because Cleveland has more big men
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 1: and more experienced big men. And you know again, I
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 1: thought Game one was a little bit of an outlier
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 1: because Allen was in foul trouble, but that hasn't really
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 1: been the case. James Harden has been a turnover machine.
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 1: So those are some problems with Cleveland. But yeah, this
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 1: free throw disparity is a real, real outlier. Man. The
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 1: fact that Cleveland was plus twenty one from the free
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 1: throw line, I mean, that is that is probably the
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 1: biggest regression point, you know what I mean. So I
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 1: will lean to Detroit all those things being considered, but
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 1: I can't make it a play. The money is kind
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 1: of disagreeing. Detroit sixty eight percent of tickets, only sixty
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 1: three percent of the cash. And as you guys know,
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 1: I picked Cleveland to win this series in my bracket,
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 1: and I've gone on records saying I felt they would
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 1: win this series with their experience being able to overcome Detroit.
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 1: The line is three and a half four. It's about
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 1: where it was in the other home games for Detroit.
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 1: They were about a three and a half or four
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 1: point favorite in those games. So I'm gonna lean Detroit,
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 1: but I don't like, I'm not gonna make it a play.
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 1: I can't do it. There are just too many regression
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 1: points there that go in both directions, even though I
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 1: do think the biggest one is the free throw disparity
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 1: that would regress against Cleveland going into this The total
• 1:48:04
  Speaker 1: here is at to twelve. Whoops, did not mean to
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 1: click on that. I think I clicked on the La
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 1: Lakers Oklahoma City game. That's not happening because the series
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 1: is over. This total is at two twelve to twelve
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 1: and a half in Cleveland Detroit. Here it is lower
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 1: the last game I think the last home game in
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 1: the series for Detroit I think was around two fourteen,
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 1: so the total is a little bit lower. The books
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 1: know that in a to two tide series, a two
• 1:48:31
  Speaker 1: two series, in a three to three series, there are
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 1: some heavy trends to the under because teams show up
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 1: with a lot of defensive intensity, you know what I mean,
• 1:48:39
  Speaker 1: because it's like the whole series is pretty much on
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 1: the line at that point. Like the team that wins
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 1: game five and a two two series wins the series.
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 1: Probably I don't know. I would say probably seventy percent
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 1: of the time. So that is a good indicator. It
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 1: means both teams show up with a lot of intensity.
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 1: So I don't disagree with the under, but you've lost
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 1: couple of points of value on it. I probably still
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 1: agree with it though, Again, as a sab was pointing out,
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 1: a lot of these playoff games have got over so far.
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 1: But some of those were those game sevens where the
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 1: book's way over adjusted. If you remember that Game seven
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 1: in the first series, the books over adjusted all of
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 1: those totals, knowing that the game sevens are usually low scoring.
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 1: The books adjusted them. They were like twenty points off
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 1: from where Game one was. I was like, you cannot
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 1: play these unders, man, and all of them went over.
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 1: So that's part of the reason why the overtrend is
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 1: going the way that it has been. But yeah, I'll agree,
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 1: I'll lean under in this game. But yeah, I don't
• 1:49:38
  Speaker 1: have a strong enough opinion on that game, and that's
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 1: gonna do it, man. But you could argue that both
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 1: teams are gonna regress offensively because Cleveland's not gonna hit
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 1: as many free throws and Detroit is not going to
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 1: hit as many threes or hit as high a percentage
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 1: of threes. So those are indicators that maybe it'll be
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 1: a lower scoring game here as well. So yeah, I
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 1: don't disagree with the under in that game, but doesn't
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 1: make my card. I'm not enough of a totals guy.
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 1: Though we won. The one total I gave out wasn't
• 1:50:05
  Speaker 1: over in the Detroit Magic series. We did get that
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 1: one correct. That one was just a massive, massive regression
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 1: from both teams shooting wise that I thought was gonna happen.
• 1:50:15
  Speaker 1: There were positive regression in that case. Anyway, that's gonna
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 1: do it. My place is sit there both Baseball plays
• 1:50:21
  Speaker 1: Miami Money Line, the Milins, and then under seven in
• 1:50:26
  Speaker 1: Padres Milwaukee. If this number gets to six and a half,
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 1: I would probably just leave it alone or maybe go
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 1: first five innings. I just don't do it, man, even
• 1:50:34
  Speaker 1: though again the professional betters will tell you that you
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 1: should because the oddsmakers are trying to keep you away
• 1:50:39
  Speaker 1: from it. I'm like, yeah, but there's a reason for that.
• 1:50:42
  Speaker 1: It's because seven is a key number. So I just
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 1: I usually leave the six and a half alone. That's
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 1: gonna do it. Learn a tone on Twitter, learn a
• 1:50:49
  Speaker 1: tone on Instagram. You can subscribe on Twitter. That helps
• 1:50:52
  Speaker 1: me out get some more subscribers here. Man, Like subscribing
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 1: it notified when I go live again. I've been pushing
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 1: it for a while, but I will do an NFL
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 1: in total show at some point in the near future.
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 1: So if you subscribe, you'll be notified of when that's
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 1: gonna happen. World Cup at least I'll fill out my
• 1:51:08
  Speaker 1: bracket once we know what the bracket looks like, but
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 1: that'll be next month. That's what we have upcoming, man
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 1: and more, you know, football preview content, probably for the NFL,
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 1: maybe some college football preview as well, like shortly before
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 1: the season starts, so that'll be all upcoming within the
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 1: next couple of months. We're on audio as well. It
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 1: helps me out. If you listen on audio Apple, Spotify, Spreaker,
• 1:51:30
  Speaker 1: that all helps me out. Oh hey, we have a
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 1: lot more viewers say I didn't even realize that, thanks guys.
• 1:51:34
  Speaker 1: Hell yeah, maybe it's just a glitch though in stream yard.
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know what's going on with that.
• 1:51:38
  Speaker 1: And it includes Twitter numbers that are a lot a
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 1: lot of times those are fake. Yeah, I don't know anyway.
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 1: Covered in You is my yuke channel on YouTube. You
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 1: can check that out. I'm and cranking out yuke covers
• 1:51:52
  Speaker 1: Patreon dot com. If you want to get a Spotify
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 1: feed with the Yuke covers on it, that's out there
• 1:51:56
  Speaker 1: and you get to support and me and maybe some
• 1:51:59
  Speaker 1: bonus U streams that I'm planning on doing at some point.
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 1: Just you know, hang out with me while I jam
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 1: and maybe do requests and stuff. I'm gonna do that
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 1: at some point, man ask but inspires me to do that. Man,
• 1:52:12
  Speaker 1: go check out his show as well, because he does
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 1: the same thing but with keyboards. He's good man. He's
• 1:52:17
  Speaker 1: a good vocalist as well, and he's really good at
• 1:52:20
  Speaker 1: just playing stuff on the fly. What else do I
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 1: have to plug? Loser Cast? We had a new episode
• 1:52:26
  Speaker 1: last night. You could check that out. My Loser nomination
• 1:52:31
  Speaker 1: had to do with one of the news stories of
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 1: the week, so you can go check that out. That
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 1: was a fun episode. G Spot. The Giants podcast that
• 1:52:38
  Speaker 1: I do will return at some point as well. That's
• 1:52:40
  Speaker 1: me with Ben Weir and possibly Adam Nutter. So yeah,
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 1: all those things upcoming. Man. But that'll do it for now.
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 1: Let's have a good Wednesday. Let's get some more wins here.
• 1:52:50
  Speaker 1: Let's keep this hot streak going. That's gonna do it.
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 2: Peace, But don't you go quiet, don't you play it
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 2: from the your name, steal me something new, somebody for show.
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 2: Put the glass down, baby, look at me, nic.
• 1:53:12
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on nothing nice.
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 2: Now, hold on, hold on, let me for you. That
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 2: b bites hard, but it don't get the crown. Hold on,
• 1:53:39
  Speaker 2: hold on and stay with me now