Latest / Combat Veteran News / Livestream: Russia Nearly Encircled Near Lyman!
Transcript
- 0:00encircled nearly cut off near Lyman.
- 0:04Uh the
- 0:09the Britain's issuing their public dire
- 0:12warnings to stockpile canned goods.
- 0:14Yaoza,
- 0:16it's not not really what you what you
- 0:19say to the public when things are going
- 0:20great. And of course, we're going to be
- 0:22doing a breakdown of the road to
- 0:24Costantine, the most dangerous road in
- 0:28all of Ukraine.
- 0:33Flat Earth Hero. Welcome. Please be
- 0:35Please let your name be a joke.
- 0:38I can promise you the Earth is is not
- 0:40flat.
- 0:46100%.
- 0:55I'll be so sad. I'll be so sad. If uh
- 1:03if you tell me that you're like, "Nah,
- 1:05dude. Earth totally flat, bro.
- 1:28So, okay.
- 1:32So sad that flat earther was first.
- 1:34Termin. Well, again, I'm hoping he's
- 1:35joking. Like, everybody loves a good,
- 1:39you know, a good conspiracy joke, right?
- 1:43You know,
- 1:45be like your name being like average
- 1:47reptilian. You're like, "Ah, that's kind
- 1:49of funny,
- 1:51right?
- 2:10Send it. Send it indeed.
- 2:23Okay. So, while we're getting into this,
- 2:26100% flat, level, and stationary.
- 2:30So, then Okay. Okay, I got two
- 2:32questions. How
- 2:35in in the model of the Earth is flat,
- 2:37level, and stationary. Oh, sorry, bros.
- 2:39The gum is getting chewed. Okay, you
- 2:41can't sit there and tell a man who owns
- 2:43a gum company that you shouldn't be
- 2:45chewing strike gum with 90 milligs of
- 2:47caffeine, 100 milligrams alpha GPC. It's
- 2:50made in the USA. It's veteranowned. It's
- 2:52got all the energy of one of these
- 2:54without having to drink carbonated cough
- 2:56medicine. Fits in your pocket. If you're
- 2:58a cop, if you're a nurse,
- 3:01you do [ __ ] with your hands and you
- 3:03still want energy. Lads,
- 3:06these things aren't going to cut it.
- 3:08You're a live streamer who talks with
- 3:10his hands.
- 3:13Strike Gum is for you.
- 3:17So, if you're and if you're going to get
- 3:18it, guys, use the promo code from one of
- 3:20our partners because not only does that
- 3:22get you a big discount, but it also
- 3:26helps benefit them because those guys
- 3:27are up and coming streamers.
- 3:47Ah, jump gum. [laughter]
- 3:49Gum scare.
- 3:57Hey, Clay. This is fun. I know you're
- 3:58trolling, but it's pretty fun. Okay, now
- 4:01I need you to explain two things in your
- 4:03model that I have personally observed
- 4:06personally. Okay. The first is that I
- 4:10several years ago went on vacation. I
- 4:12was the time I was living on the east
- 4:14coast of the United States. It was
- 4:16January. I experienced approximately
- 4:20we'll say 8 hours of daylight.
- 4:23I took a flight took me about eight
- 4:26eight-ish
- 4:28hours. I landed in the southern part of
- 4:32New Zealand.
- 4:34So within 18 hours I experienced in the
- 4:36southern part of New Zealand
- 4:37approximately 20 hours of daylight.
- 4:45How does your flat earth model explain
- 4:47what I observed?
- 4:58Like I'm waiting
- 5:00about made one for my life. I'm day
- 5:01drinking. Listen, man. Just do me a
- 5:06favor.
- 5:09Have an honest conversation about your
- 5:10alcohol intake. I love a good day drink,
- 5:13man.
- 5:15But it's it's a Thursday afternoon, you
- 5:18know. Um there was layovers, right? But
- 5:20yeah, I mean to get to southern New
- 5:23Zealand. Yeah.
- 5:25Grim Grimes. Did I hear the army was
- 5:27sending our drone ending the drone
- 5:28battalion? Bro, we talked about that
- 5:31yesterday.
- 5:32The number of people who casually out
- 5:34themselves is not tuning in to every
- 5:35single live stream. What? Watch every
- 5:37single live stream. I'm kidding. Of
- 5:38course, I can't expect you to watch
- 5:40every single live stream. And the videos
- 5:43do come out eventually.
- 5:51The plane was not a P3 Orion. It was
- 5:53not.
- 5:58It wasn't 80 hours on a single plane.
- 6:01I'd say it was probably whatever 12
- 6:02hours of flying, but to get from
- 6:05basically
- 6:07the the DMV area, the Washington DC area
- 6:10to the southern island of New Zealand.
- 6:23Oh, I stream while you're walking your
- 6:24dog. Hell yeah.
- 6:32Okay, I love how we had the flatearther.
- 6:35I asked him a simple question to explain
- 6:38and now he's gone, which means he was
- 6:40trolling, which would be pretty funny.
- 6:41I'm pretty sure that's the case. But
- 6:43there you go. flat earthers go real
- 6:45quiet
- 6:48when you point out
- 6:53guys. I'm I I understand you're like
- 6:57It's funny cuz I I talk to people I'm
- 6:59like does chewing gum annoy you? Some
- 7:00streams people are like nah it doesn't
- 7:02really annoy me.
- 7:04But today everybody's like, "Don't chew
- 7:05the gum."
- 7:23You were in northern winter, southern
- 7:26summer,
- 7:29New Zealand near the crust, US near the
- 7:32center.
- 7:34the Gleon map.
- 7:40But that doesn't explain that doesn't
- 7:42offer any explanatory
- 7:44of why the sun was up for nine
- 7:47additional hours.
- 7:59What is the Gleon's map? This is This is
- 8:02pretty funny.
- 8:11Okay. So, here you go.
- 8:14All right. We got it here. We got it.
- 8:17Here's a Gleon's map.
- 8:20Okay. It claims that this is I mean this
- 8:22is a flat map of the world. Okay. So,
- 8:25what he Where's the sun go?
- 8:28Like here, I guess.
- 8:31And it rotates like this
- 8:36like.
- 8:41And so how does
- 8:55uh so it's like rotates like this.
- 8:58But when it's winter, okay, when it's
- 8:59winter in North America, what does the
- 9:01sun do in the flat earth model?
- 9:11Like it doesn't make any sense, guys.
- 9:13Try to play it. Does the sun cross this
- 9:15way?
- 9:16But again, I can tell you with a
- 9:18compass, assuming you know the compass
- 9:21points north. That I can tell you for
- 9:22sure based on this map. My compass
- 9:25points north. All right. It points
- 9:27towards all the towns to my north. So I
- 9:30know that my sun appears to rise from
- 9:32here. I know that for a fact, right? So
- 9:35I wake up as you guys do. Sun appears to
- 9:38right rise from the east, set in the
- 9:39west. So I know this is the line the sun
- 9:42transits based on your thesis and given
- 9:46that the earth is flat and and and so
- 9:50walk me through this. How does it so
- 9:52does Australia never see the sun?
- 10:03again explain to me how I got on the
- 10:05plane here in DC, flew
- 10:08uh to uh here New Zealand.
- 10:15And how do I see the sun rise in the
- 10:17east and set in the west? The only way
- 10:20is if it rotates like this.
- 10:25But then how did I observe the sun also
- 10:28rise in the east and set in the west?
- 10:30How did it do the same thing?
- 10:40Like how did I do that? This this model
- 10:42does not complete it, right? Unless the
- 10:45sun sort of wiggle waggles. So it like
- 10:48it just rose for me in DC, right? And
- 10:52set But then I knew I was flying and it
- 10:55followed me like a like a ghost and then
- 10:58went in New Zealand and rose and set
- 11:00much slower. Maybe it's like 10 suns.
- 11:04Your winter sun is lower in the sky,
- 11:08less hours of light because the outer of
- 11:13the circle is where the sun is.
- 11:18Yeah. So what you're saying is
- 11:22so
- 11:24in order for that to happen the sun
- 11:29like how does it rise over the horizon
- 11:32and also so you're arguing for it to be
- 11:34a line based on your Gleon map here then
- 11:37I the the sun would have to change
- 11:39direction according from my perspective
- 11:41it would have to shift something like
- 11:4390°
- 11:45so it would have to not just be lower in
- 11:47the sky but actually be 90° way.
- 11:54But remember, the model isn't about a
- 11:56sphere versus circle. The model also has
- 11:58to incorporate the sun moving around the
- 12:02sun orbiting the earth.
- 12:10The sun traverses the tropics inside and
- 12:13outside of the circle over the year.
- 12:18So it you're arguing that it shifts this
- 12:20way.
- 12:24But it's like very low.
- 12:30Yeah. But again, but in that case,
- 12:35the sun would have to like for this to
- 12:37be true, the sun would never be
- 12:40overhead. Like in the winter in in in
- 12:43basically anywhere in the United States
- 12:44for me to have observed those two
- 12:46things, the sun would have had to have
- 12:48actually been almost south. It would
- 12:50almost have to never rise in the
- 12:52horizon. It would never feel like I
- 12:55would never have direct overhead shadow
- 12:58because it would never be directly
- 12:59overhead.
- 13:06This isn't a flat earth channel. This is
- 13:08somebody who's trying to
- 13:13explain the fact that the seasons like
- 13:16that I've been to both Australia and the
- 13:19United States
- 13:21and that it doesn't really have an
- 13:22explanation for why the sun behaves
- 13:26why the they have radically different
- 13:28daylight hours.
- 13:35The sun is not always overhead, right? A
- 13:53little loud J.
- 13:58Yeah. But like this argument that it
- 14:00rotates in these different spheres
- 14:03holds that like
- 14:08I it struggles to actually make sense
- 14:11because like the sun would have to be so
- 14:13low that it simply becomes no longer
- 14:15visible as it transits the United
- 14:18States, but would have to be so high up
- 14:21that it reaches still pretty high apexes
- 14:24in the sky.
- 14:27So it was like picture it like a dome. I
- 14:29am picturing it like a dome. That's the
- 14:31conventional model. It's a perfect dome,
- 14:35a sphere if you will.
- 14:40The highest the sun gets here is like
- 14:4260° midsummer. And where's here?
- 14:56Yeah, this model just model like
- 15:05there's no position of the sun that
- 15:07makes any sense from this model.
- 15:10Like assuming what you're describing,
- 15:12which is the sun rotating through these
- 15:14these different parts spinning around,
- 15:16the model makes absolutely no [ __ ]
- 15:18sense.
- 15:27It would mean that either the sun would
- 15:29barely crest above the horizon anywhere
- 15:31in the United States. Yeah.
- 15:34Or again,
- 15:38the the 20 hours of sunlight in
- 15:45in New Zealand like can never occur,
- 15:48aren't possible.
- 15:56Yeah, I think it's funny. I'm just
- 15:58having it. We're just having a goof.
- 16:05Three poke hole. Hit the like button if
- 16:06you're pro flat earth.
- 16:09They got arguing with the flat earthers.
- 16:11I'm more having a having a goof letting
- 16:14people filter in. Larry Hootton bro
- 16:16thinks the sun is real.
- 16:18That's right. That's just reflected moon
- 16:20burn. All right, I put on moon screen. I
- 16:24mean, the map looks like a valid like a
- 16:26valid projection.
- 16:30Make sour strike gum, please, guys.
- 16:32We're working on it. That's that's the
- 16:33chemistry experiment that I got sent.
- 16:35All right. Should we uh should we talk
- 16:37about real news? I know. I can see I can
- 16:40see people steadily tuning in and then
- 16:42being like, why are we yelling about the
- 16:43sun?
- 16:50Listen, listen. We're not letting We're
- 16:52not letting these guys work us up. I was
- 16:54just sort of curious, honestly, to be
- 16:56like, explain explain how that happened,
- 17:00right?
- 17:11Make sour apple strike gum. Okay.
- 17:14All right.
- 17:16Let's talk about a real topic. The
- 17:19Ukrainians.
- 17:22Yeah, you know, we got all kinds here.
- 17:29All right, let's talk about this. Let's
- 17:31pull it up. Let's Let's talk about this.
- 17:36All right.
- 17:46The Russians have repeatedly said that
- 17:48the Ukrainian armed forces are on the
- 17:50brink of defeat. But for an army on the
- 17:51brink of defeat, the Ukrainians seem to
- 17:54keep liberating more territory from the
- 17:56Russian army. But the real story isn't
- 17:59just the tactical success, but the fact
- 18:03that for a lot of the analysts, this
- 18:08encirclement is a complete surprise, but
- 18:12again, maybe it shouldn't be. Take a
- 18:15look. So this is a map from Thorill
- 18:18which is a uh Polish analyst covering
- 18:22the war who has pointed out that
- 18:24according to recently acknowledged
- 18:27updates from particularly the third
- 18:29assault uh that the Russian forces in
- 18:34and north of Lyman have been heavily
- 18:37encircled. Now uh this is the
- 18:40encirclement really centers on the town
- 18:42of Kodiatsi
- 18:44and reportedly this is a function of
- 18:47third assault pushing from the north and
- 18:49actually the 60th mechanized pushing
- 18:52from the south pinsing off Russian
- 18:54forces. Now again I want to point out as
- 18:57is as needs to be acknowledged here that
- 19:02that in this war because of the nature
- 19:05of the sort of dispersed front line
- 19:08terms like cut off are a little bit
- 19:11looser but Ukrainian control is very
- 19:14robust on either side of the town of
- 19:16Koiatsi and that is not nothing because
- 19:20if you are a Russian soldier and you
- 19:23need to be resupplied it's or Kazvact,
- 19:26you are going to have to pass through a
- 19:28very narrow channel, a channel in which
- 19:30Ukrainian forces are going to be
- 19:31increasingly able to observe, monitor,
- 19:33and cut off. And that is pretty
- 19:37significant uh and spells a potentially
- 19:41dangerous situation if you are one of
- 19:43the Russian forces in these other towns.
- 19:46And it's also wild because the encircle
- 19:49the encircle and annihilate strategy is
- 19:51something that the Russians have pursued
- 19:53basically since the start of the war.
- 19:55Ever since this war became a grinding
- 19:57stalemate uh battle of attrition, not a
- 19:59war of maneuver, the idea of slowly,
- 20:02creepily encircling an area and then
- 20:04forcing Ukrainians forces to withdraw
- 20:06from it is actually been a reliable part
- 20:09of the strategy. And this is one of the
- 20:10first times I've seen Ukrainians
- 20:12actually execute a encirclement
- 20:15strategy.
- 20:17Now the this is reportedly
- 20:21uh has been the reason we haven't heard
- 20:24anything about it is because of airtight
- 20:27OPSSAC operational security. Now, what's
- 20:30really unusual about this is that not
- 20:33only have the Ukrainians not really
- 20:36released any footage, any information
- 20:39about this offensive action, which has
- 20:42reportedly taken place uh as early as it
- 20:46looks like July, which actually is not
- 20:49that long a period, right? Basically
- 20:51just two months of fighting. And
- 20:55the
- 20:57the fact that this has been totally
- 20:59locked down in on an information space
- 21:01perspective is shocking. But even more
- 21:03shocking is that the Russians also
- 21:06didn't acknowledge this. And it's funny
- 21:09because for the Ukrainians, they likely
- 21:11didn't acknowledge this because they
- 21:13wanted to keep the element of surprise
- 21:15and not allow Russian commanders or the
- 21:19public or even Russian political
- 21:21leadership to get fully a breast of the
- 21:24the how badly the Russians are being
- 21:26pushed back. But more than that, the
- 21:29Russians likely were just quiet about it
- 21:31because it's embarrassing. And if
- 21:33there's one thing that we have
- 21:34consistently reported on on this
- 21:36channel, it's that on the basis of some
- 21:39of the decisions and statements that
- 21:40Putin has made, he himself appears to
- 21:43not be getting briefed completely about
- 21:46the reality of the battlefield. We've
- 21:48seen on many different occasions Putin
- 21:50himself make statements about Russian uh
- 21:53control over key villages and towns,
- 21:55notably Kian, and only to have that
- 21:58refuted by sometimes video evidence. And
- 22:02some of that you can go, oh well, you
- 22:04know, Putin's just promoting his own
- 22:05propaganda. But if you're a strong man
- 22:08like Putin, getting lying opens you up
- 22:11to being exposed and so and frankly
- 22:15humiliated.
- 22:17And so I think Putin may actually be
- 22:19receiving uh lies from his subordinate
- 22:22commanders in part because those
- 22:24commanders get paid based on square
- 22:26kilometers of territory taken. And again
- 22:28in this war it's actually pretty hard to
- 22:30determine whether or not you've taken a
- 22:32territory. And so if you compound these
- 22:35lies on lies on lies, uh, at every level
- 22:38commanders kind of, uh, gassing up or or
- 22:41overexaggerating their effectiveness,
- 22:43adding, you know, if every level adds
- 22:45about 10% to how much territory they've
- 22:47taken, what you can end up with is a
- 22:49situation where the maps briefed to
- 22:52Kremlin officials look nothing like the
- 22:55battlefield reality. And if that's true
- 22:58of the Russian army when it is making
- 23:00its creeping advances, you can bet that
- 23:03the Russian army is probably not
- 23:05acknowledging areas where they are being
- 23:08driven back as we're seeing in this
- 23:11fight. So for context, this salient
- 23:14here, this little bulge north of
- 23:17Crematorsque, a little bit north of
- 23:19Lyman, um actually pretty close to Isum,
- 23:22this is where you're seeing this pinser
- 23:24movement take place. And again, this Ko
- 23:27Diatsi is the kind of focal point of
- 23:31what's believed to be. You can see even
- 23:32these maps haven't officially updated
- 23:34this information,
- 23:36but it's fascinating to see that the
- 23:40[sighs]
- 23:40God bless God bless it. Uh what on earth
- 23:44I have I get more spam ads. I have to
- 23:47turn off my ad block on this because of
- 23:49the um
- 23:52because the ads support them and they
- 23:54have like the anti- adblock stuff and
- 23:56I'm not here to like steal their money
- 23:58um but I end up with crazy [ __ ] like
- 24:00that. So
- 24:03what you end up with is a is a situation
- 24:07where again the Russians are probably
- 24:10not ever going to like openly admit that
- 24:13they have screwed up. There's also
- 24:15though a little bit of a of a uh mapping
- 24:20issue. You can see here this actually
- 24:22has acknowledged the counter offensives
- 24:26south of Kolo Diatsi and actually
- 24:28depicts north of Kodiatsi as being
- 24:31totally Russian controlled. So there's
- 24:33really a lot of questions. There was
- 24:34never really a lot of like solid mapping
- 24:37on either side. But notice the terrain
- 24:41here. the terrain naturally is going to
- 24:43favor a Ukrainian offensive operation.
- 24:46Why? Because of this waterway. You see,
- 24:49when you have to cross a waterway in the
- 24:52era of drone warfare, it gives the
- 24:55defender some really big advantages.
- 24:57Namely, that crossing a waterway is very
- 25:00slow and there's not really a way to do
- 25:03it at scale. And water crossings are
- 25:05natural choke points. So when the
- 25:07Russians send let's say uh 30 guys out
- 25:10from from Blushkana, right, they have to
- 25:13get to one of only a handful of bridges
- 25:16or fords across this river. The
- 25:18Ukrainians in turn don't need to monitor
- 25:21the entire front. If they know where the
- 25:23crossing points are, they simply monitor
- 25:25those crossing points and as soon as
- 25:27forces cross, they can be targeted and
- 25:30struck.
- 25:31now. So, it makes cutting off enemy
- 25:35resupply, at least groundbased resupply,
- 25:38much easier. Now, we know that the
- 25:41Russians are also willing to use things
- 25:42like Molinas to resupply their
- 25:44positions, but you have to think that
- 25:46supplying things uh you know 10 kg at a
- 25:49time via drone over a nearly 20 km wide
- 25:52front and a a area that is also up to 20
- 25:56kilometers deep is pretty tough. And
- 25:59again, basically everything here, right,
- 26:03these these lakes, there's not really a
- 26:05scenario where they can be easily
- 26:07crossed by a person. Much of this area
- 26:09is reportedly uh swamp land. Again, easy
- 26:12to maintain observation. You can also
- 26:15see a little bit from the terrain map
- 26:16that there's actually you have to cross
- 26:18this river and then scale up a ridge. So
- 26:22this really slows Russian infantry
- 26:24infiltration tactics and is just like
- 26:27perfect for conducting observation. So
- 26:29the Ukrainians likely said, "Listen,
- 26:31these guys are going to be vulnerable.
- 26:33It's going to be really hard for them to
- 26:34be to resupply through this difficult
- 26:36terrain. So let's use our drones to cut
- 26:39this off." That's my [snorts] theory
- 26:40anyway. And then we're going to use
- 26:42conventional assault tactics to kind of
- 26:45drive south and north, pinching off the
- 26:48Russians here. I think that's probably
- 26:49what they did. This was an operation by
- 26:52the third core, third assault. And I
- 26:55think this is really significant because
- 26:58one of the reasons I think this opsseack
- 26:59works so well is that third assault is
- 27:02just a little bit like a cult. And they
- 27:05literally have like a secret handshake.
- 27:07They actually are one of the few units
- 27:10authorized to do their own recruitment
- 27:12and recruit training. And I think this
- 27:14has the effect particularly in Ukraine
- 27:16today of saying, you know, we like we
- 27:21get to vet and pick our own recruits.
- 27:23And if you know you're going to get
- 27:26drafted, you as a Ukrainian are probably
- 27:28saying, "Listen, if I'm going to go have
- 27:30to fight with a unit, I might as well
- 27:32fight with the third assault." Right?
- 27:33Third assault, for example, um, every
- 27:35one of their soldiers is actually
- 27:37trained to what's called CLS or combat
- 27:40lifesaver, right? that is every single
- 27:42soldier. And normally a combat lifesaver
- 27:46is is uh you know a a the idea of like a
- 27:51squad uh firstline medic or aid provider
- 27:55designated aid provider is the best way
- 27:57to think of it. So they get trained for
- 27:58example to a st to open a nasal
- 28:00ferangeal airway uh to start an IV to uh
- 28:04apply I mean apply tourniquet is
- 28:06something like basically everybody's
- 28:07trained to do but the point is is that
- 28:09it takes you know an additional 40 hours
- 28:11of training third assault does that
- 28:13right because in part they say listen
- 28:15part of our culture is that you know
- 28:18like we view ourselves as members of a
- 28:20brotherhood the third assault
- 28:21brotherhood and that means that we don't
- 28:24leave soldiers behind we don't stick
- 28:26them in positions to die. Um, we get
- 28:28them out uh even at significant cost and
- 28:32we do everything we can to save lives
- 28:35because again today it might be soldier
- 28:38X, tomorrow it could be me. And that's
- 28:41part of the culture. But I think when
- 28:43you also have this insular unit culture
- 28:45that values this, they say, listen, part
- 28:47of keeping each other safe is
- 28:50maintaining operational security. We
- 28:52cannot afford to let our people walk
- 28:54into traps. And we avoid that happening
- 28:57by not letting the Russians know where
- 28:59we are. And that means maintaining
- 29:00discipline on social media. That means
- 29:02means maintaining discipline about where
- 29:04you're stationed, about what you're
- 29:05doing. Um what you're preparing for. And
- 29:08it seems like Third Assault did that
- 29:09really successfully, right? And
- 29:12um obviously according to reporting from
- 29:14Euromidan press uh it's this has been
- 29:17reportedly an even more successful uh
- 29:20fight than was previously acknowledged
- 29:22right and
- 29:24the Russian forces again caught in a
- 29:28pinser movement and part of this is also
- 29:31to help take the pressure off Lyman and
- 29:33in turn take the pressure off Slavian
- 29:35and Kremursk the last two big cities in
- 29:37Dyetsk but I I think the the fact that
- 29:43according to at least Thorill what
- 29:46you're looking at here is literally I
- 29:48mean this is basically just a little bit
- 29:51past the border of Kodiatsi which means
- 29:54that the units based on the most recent
- 29:57uh guesstimates right is probably
- 30:00literally within 2 kilometers uh of
- 30:03linking up with each other which is
- 30:05crazy to see which mean which implies
- 30:08kind of that all This has just been kind
- 30:11of sliced open, which is not just wild,
- 30:16right?
- 30:18But this represents also something
- 30:20significant because the
- 30:24Russians were on the offensive
- 30:27uh as of like the end of June which
- 30:31implies that just July and August you
- 30:33might see in fact a change of again an
- 30:37area that is roughly a 12x
- 30:4315 kilometer area get
- 30:47flip control, right? Almost 150 km we're
- 30:50talking about here
- 30:52and in in just 2 months, which is
- 30:55unusually fast. It's it's lightning fast
- 30:58by Russian standards, but even by
- 31:00Ukrainian standards, which rely on a
- 31:02little bit like faster counter punches
- 31:04over smaller areas, it's a very unusual
- 31:09event.
- 31:10And I think it might be indicative of
- 31:13something larger because one of the
- 31:15things that we have talked about is that
- 31:17over the last couple of of months, we've
- 31:21seen Russian casualties rise and a
- 31:24corresponding rise in Russian
- 31:26recruitment hasn't really materialized.
- 31:29And so we estimate right based on the
- 31:3130,000 recruits a month that Russia has
- 31:34uh reportedly
- 31:36uh had. Well, we can see here that
- 31:40Russia recruits about a thousand troops
- 31:41a day. And you can see that Russian
- 31:44losses are as high as it can be as high
- 31:46as um uh 1,500 a day. And even on the
- 31:51low end, you're talking about 1,200. In
- 31:54fact, the lowest casualty day in the
- 31:57last 90 days has still had 11 nearly
- 32:001,00 Russian casualties. These are these
- 32:03are KIA and and seriously WIA. And when
- 32:07you look at those numbers, what you see
- 32:09and what we talked about is that every
- 32:12month the total number of Russian forces
- 32:15actually conducting combat operations in
- 32:17Ukraine diminishes. And that's important
- 32:21because just like a football team or or
- 32:23think of it like a hockey team, right?
- 32:26The the a hockey team, right? when uh a
- 32:30a a player commits an infraction, he is
- 32:32removed from the ice and that team plays
- 32:35short-handed. So instead of I think it's
- 32:37like five people on the ice, they play
- 32:39with four or instead of six people on
- 32:41the ice, they play with five. And a 5v6,
- 32:44it's hard, but for a brief period,
- 32:46right, a 5v6, they can keep the fight
- 32:48going. But rarely in hockey, you
- 32:50sometimes see two players draw
- 32:52penalties. Now you've turned it into a a
- 32:56six versus a four. and the odds of a
- 33:00goal being scored in that interval is
- 33:02incredibly high. And then let's say
- 33:04theoretically that you had something as
- 33:06bad as a six versus three. Well, at that
- 33:10point you would essentially be looking
- 33:12at a situation where uh
- 33:16scoring a goal would become inevitable.
- 33:18In fact, the odds of goals being scored
- 33:20rise exponentially
- 33:23as each individual uh is removed from
- 33:27the ice. That is how it works with a
- 33:29military where the Russian military
- 33:32operations,
- 33:34right? In order for a Russian
- 33:36infiltration squad to push out.
- 33:39Remember, they have to have drone teams.
- 33:42Those drone teams have to be supplied
- 33:45and sourced and receive, you know, their
- 33:48drones, their batteries, their food,
- 33:50their water, their ammunition, right?
- 33:52And those drone teams are often supplied
- 33:55in turn by other drone teams or other
- 33:58logistics units or truck driver units.
- 34:00And those truck driver units are also
- 34:03resupplied by logistics units, logistics
- 34:05depots. Um, and those logistics depots
- 34:08receive their logistics from other
- 34:10things. So there's this network of
- 34:12people, this pyramid of people that
- 34:14culminates with a fighting with an with
- 34:16an actual Russian infiltration unit. And
- 34:20the problem is that what you do when you
- 34:22start to lose people is that the
- 34:24Russians say, "Listen, we can't afford
- 34:25to stop offensive operations." So, how
- 34:27do you maintain the the the point of a
- 34:30pyramid? The answer is you start pulling
- 34:32blocks out of the bottom. You start
- 34:33playing Jenga. And the problem is that
- 34:36if you don't bring blocks in to replace
- 34:38the pyramid, eventually the Jenga tower
- 34:40starts to collapse. And that might be
- 34:42what we're seeing here. a Russian
- 34:45military that has fewer troops doing
- 34:49supporting roles, right? In order to
- 34:50maintain their offensive operations,
- 34:52they have to pull from these supporting
- 34:54roles, pull from these diminished units
- 34:56that aren't getting backfilled. So now,
- 34:58instead of three truck drivers, you
- 35:01might have just one, right? Maybe
- 35:04instead of of four, you know, fourman
- 35:07drone teams providing roundthe-clock
- 35:10coverage of an area, maybe there's just
- 35:12one drone team that can only operate for
- 35:15eight hours at a time. So, when you look
- 35:18at that, right, you're going to see when
- 35:20you add in those little chinks to the
- 35:21armor, again, pulling one block out of a
- 35:24pyramid and putting it on the top isn't
- 35:26going to collapse the pyramid. Pulling
- 35:2815
- 35:29might cause some real structural issues.
- 35:32And the idea, the fact that we're seeing
- 35:34Ukrainian offensives that look like
- 35:36this, that create this level of
- 35:39territorial change in a comparatively
- 35:41short period of time, may indicate that
- 35:44this is a Russian army that is that is
- 35:48being bled out, that doesn't have enough
- 35:51blocks in its base anymore, that hasn't
- 35:53replaced the blocks that it's pulled
- 35:55out, and it's not going to get better.
- 35:59That's the other thing that unlike the
- 36:01hockey analogy where uh you might think
- 36:03of if you have only four people on the
- 36:06ice, those four people might play more
- 36:09aggressive physical hockey increasing
- 36:11the odds that one of them will draw a
- 36:13penalty. And that's kind of what the
- 36:15Russians may find themselves having to
- 36:17do because the more their
- 36:20army is having to make do with less, the
- 36:24more likely they are to have situations
- 36:26emerge like the one we're seeing in
- 36:28Koliati
- 36:30where significant amounts of troops are
- 36:33potentially cut off. And normally Russia
- 36:35would perhaps deploy reserves, try to
- 36:38stabilize the situation, try to conduct
- 36:39a fighting withdrawal, try to preserve
- 36:41some of their combat power. But with no
- 36:44reserve in place or with an anemic under
- 36:47undermand reserve, there might not be
- 36:49anything to deploy here to save them.
- 36:50And they'll incur further losses.
- 36:53Meaning that the next time there's a
- 36:55Ukrainian offensive, maybe the Russian
- 36:58forces that were here could be pulled
- 37:01out or rotated or put in a reserve
- 37:03compon reserve force and they won't be
- 37:05available. And so that that subsequent
- 37:09attack might even be more successful,
- 37:11more one-sided, unless of course Russia
- 37:14can find a way to mitigate what's
- 37:16becoming increasingly a manpower crisis.
- 37:28Uh the Mog, no, that the map we're
- 37:30looking at is a is from a guy named
- 37:32Thorill.
- 37:34Um the uh Thorill's map uses the Russian
- 37:38style. He's meant I think he's
- 37:40deliberately trying to be a uh a
- 37:43reputation of uh Ryar. Um because Rybar
- 37:47uses a similar style of map. Um but you
- 37:51notice you know this isn't Rybar because
- 37:53these are NATO standard symbols right
- 37:56and you notice he frames blue which
- 37:58indicates friendly in NATO um NATO map
- 38:02symbology right so this is third assault
- 38:05core or I think this is actually a
- 38:06battalion
- 38:08right so you have third a third uh
- 38:11mechanized battalion you have 66
- 38:14mechanized battalion um I think this is
- 38:18a I think two dashes is is a squad. So
- 38:22maybe a you know a 33rd
- 38:25um
- 38:27yeah I think it's battalion maybe these
- 38:29are companies but again the framing
- 38:32tells you that this is not rivar um that
- 38:35this is a pro-NATO this is using NATO
- 38:38mapping and the red triangle or the red
- 38:41diamonds are the NATO symbology for a um
- 38:45an enemy it.
- 38:54So
- 38:57yeah, I think this is a I think this
- 39:01really has the potential to be a very
- 39:03significant development. again more
- 39:06indicative also the fact that we're
- 39:08seeing this closely on the heels of the
- 39:13offensive operation I think it was by a
- 39:16different unit
- 39:19one of the mechanized units um in the
- 39:22south right remember they also announced
- 39:25hey man we just did a big sweep in the
- 39:26south we drove all these guys out and
- 39:29now in normally you would see a long
- 39:33interval a very long interval between
- 39:35that that offensive action and another
- 39:39significant offensive action by Ukraine.
- 39:40You'd see them wait a long time to
- 39:42replenish reserves, restock units, train
- 39:45up. But now you're seeing that actually
- 39:48they have they're conducting offensives
- 39:51at a snappier clip. And part of this, I
- 39:54think, is to keep the Russians keep
- 39:56pushing into the Russians because again,
- 39:58what they don't want is in order to
- 40:00maintain the casualty rate that they
- 40:01need to, they can't let the Russians,
- 40:04they can't only
- 40:06defend against Russian infiltration
- 40:07because the Russians when they start
- 40:09running low on people, they'll just
- 40:10launch fewer attacks and they'll sort of
- 40:12sit back and they'll they'll they'll
- 40:14replenish their forces before attacking
- 40:16again. The Ukrainians like, "But we
- 40:17definitely can't let them do that." So
- 40:18they say, listen, we have to maintain
- 40:20this quot of forward lean, this forward
- 40:22posture. It's also not nothing that this
- 40:25took place as the Ukrainian senior
- 40:27leadership was in total flux. But that's
- 40:30a sign again of kind of the NATO
- 40:32NATOification
- 40:34of the Ukrainian armed forces. In fact,
- 40:35they're doing NATO doctrine better than
- 40:37NATO does because again, this is
- 40:39something where the third assault was
- 40:41literally the the the guys the third
- 40:43assault. Like this seems like a third
- 40:46assault and 66th operation almost
- 40:48entirely, which to me says that the
- 40:52senior leadership in Kev, it didn't even
- 40:55matter that they were literally didn't
- 40:56know who was in charge of the army. It
- 40:58didn't disrupt this operation at all.
- 41:00which that is actually I think even
- 41:02crazier that this seems to have gone off
- 41:06not requiring that much direction from
- 41:09senior leadership.
- 41:13So uh okay
- 41:25again it's also a sign I think that
- 41:27Ukrainian units are have quite good at
- 41:29at independent operation independent
- 41:31command. Maybe psycho thanks to the 10.
- 41:34Nothing ominous about that name.
- 42:03I love how K's like using maps to prove
- 42:05a point without a single proof your idea
- 42:07is real. Uh I mean Euromid and Press has
- 42:10generally reported true facts. They are
- 42:13a legitimate news outlet. Um,
- 42:16and I think
- 42:19uh, Militari,
- 42:22I believe, is also covering this. Uh,
- 42:27let's see if I can pull this up.
- 42:38Let's see.
- 42:58Yeah. Let's see if Militarian's got
- 43:00this. Uh, they cover third assault.
- 43:10Yeah. Again, Euromine's usually pretty
- 43:13good about their reporting.
- 43:16Um, these guys probably may still be
- 43:18keeping it under wraps.
- 43:21Let's just see. Let's just see what news
- 43:23on Google has, right?
- 43:33Let's see. Let's see if I've just made
- 43:35this up or if it's actually legitimately
- 43:37reported.
- 43:40Uh here we go. Here's here's ISW, an
- 43:44entirely second source that relies on
- 43:46almost exclusively um
- 43:50uh legitimate sources.
- 43:52And let's take a look
- 43:57uh talking about Lyman.
- 44:01So this depicts Russ Ukrainian forces.
- 44:04Again, this depicts it as
- 44:09that Ukrainians, yeah, are again sort of
- 44:11putting the pinser on them here. So, you
- 44:14can see it there.
- 44:16And this is from
- 44:20See if we can get this.
- 44:25This is from August 26. Yes, this is
- 44:26yesterday.
- 44:32So,
- 44:37Right. Talking about Costa Anteneva,
- 44:44uh, Ukrainian forces recently advanced
- 44:46in Doropilia and Kian's directions
- 44:55again. You got curse,
- 44:59right? The Oscill
- 45:02Costeneva
- 45:05let's see
- 45:09more dignets south.
- 45:19Oh, this is a Russian occupation update.
- 45:30again five hours ago.
- 45:33Yeah, this says Ukraine. Here's more
- 45:34Eurom mine and Ukraine secret counter
- 45:36offensive
- 45:40on ice. He says, "I was at an event a
- 45:42few days ago. Third assault arrange
- 45:43showing off VR anti- drone training,
- 45:44shotgun, semi-auto rifle. People could
- 45:46practice making cameraing, etc. And very
- 45:47tasty food. They know what's up. Good
- 45:49food also. I believe it.
- 45:56Yeah. Yeah. Third Third Assault knows
- 45:58what's up.
- 46:00Yeah. Here's another article again by
- 46:02David Axe who does really actual like is
- 46:04a real reporter.
- 46:07Right. Again, Clemen Mullen Ukraine
- 46:10forces attacking for two weeks
- 46:11unnoticed. Right. Barely any
- 46:13geoloccation. Good level of opsac.
- 46:15Russians reluctant to publish videos
- 46:16from these areas.
- 46:22Uh again, he says, quote, "By the end of
- 46:24the month, we should have an official
- 46:25update on good results. The Ukrainian
- 46:26offensive has largely remained secret."
- 46:28So, we'll find out. We'll find out if I
- 46:30know what I'm talking about or not.
- 46:37So,
- 46:39we'll see.
- 46:45We shall see.
- 46:55Yeah, I'm looking around.
- 46:57Okay, these guys are just publishing
- 46:58screenshots.
- 47:09Like I said, I I have pretty good faith
- 47:11in uh in the reporting of Euromiden.
- 47:39Uh, let's see. Why would you want Russia
- 47:42to win?
- 47:45Cal explain how does a large offensive
- 47:47remain secret?
- 47:51Okay. Well, um,
- 47:54did you have a stroke? Well, I was what
- 47:56I was just talking about. I explained
- 47:58extensively why both sides have an
- 47:59incentive to keep this a secret.
- 48:02It's pretty easy. The Russians don't
- 48:05want to acknowledge territorial losses
- 48:07because it'll get them fired or, you
- 48:11know, Kremlin. Um, plus they will be
- 48:14exposed as having lied to their
- 48:15commander about success, something
- 48:17that's been well documented. And the
- 48:19Ukrainians don't want to because it will
- 48:21allow the Russians to better prepare and
- 48:23better respond to their offensive
- 48:25actions, right? It'll allow them to make
- 48:27to learn information. It's pretty
- 48:30straightforward.
- 48:31Tell a guy, "Any new update on the
- 48:32conscription guidelines for Ukrainian
- 48:34men? I have a friend over there and I'm
- 48:35worried he's on the hook." Uh, I haven't
- 48:37I haven't seen anything like this. All
- 48:39I've seen is some discussion about
- 48:41lowering the conscription age to like 55
- 48:44or something, but I'm not familiar with
- 48:45any new um new guidelines that have come
- 48:48out.
- 48:52Why is Ukraine keeping it a secret?
- 48:59I
- 49:01>> [laughter]
- 49:02>> Okay, dude. All right, man. Good luck
- 49:04out there. Good luck out there in the
- 49:05world.
- 49:12It's a It's a It's a It's a hard world
- 49:13out there. But if you don't understand
- 49:15why it's bad to not post on Facebook
- 49:18about what your your unit going on a big
- 49:20offensive and where exactly they're
- 49:22located, um I don't know what to tell
- 49:25you. You and the flat earth guy can hang
- 49:27out.
- 49:38But why mados?
- 49:54Okay. Want to talk about the UK?
- 50:08Yeah, you shouldn't be I mean I mean I
- 50:11understand listen if you've been at war
- 50:13for years like you're going to be on
- 50:15WhatsApp, you're going to be at on
- 50:17Signal. You're you're going to be on
- 50:19Facebook. Like you remember a lot of
- 50:20these guys have kids. I mean, one of the
- 50:23guys, two of the guys actually, one of
- 50:25them has a kid my age, and you know, it
- 50:28was really sad. Like, when I was there
- 50:30in December, we both got videos from our
- 50:33spouses, um, showing our our kids almost
- 50:36the same age, doing the exact same
- 50:37thing, like doing the the crawl practice
- 50:39where they sort of get up on all fours
- 50:41and they rock back and forth like, I'm
- 50:42doing it. I'm doing it.
- 50:55And yeah, it was sad. I was like, "Oh
- 50:57man, I'm in two weeks I'm going to get
- 50:59to go home and I'm going to get to like
- 51:01give the little guy a kiss and he's not
- 51:03going to go home until like he gets his
- 51:06five days annual leave, you know. Uh,
- 51:09Sat, do you think it's cowardly for
- 51:10Ukrainian men to dodge a draft? Like two
- 51:12million Ukrainian men have dodge a draft
- 51:13at this point in time?" Uh,
- 51:16yeah, kind of. I mean, I hate to on one
- 51:20hand, I hate to like sit in judgment of
- 51:21people and be like, "You should sign up
- 51:24for this like very dangerous war." Um,
- 51:27but on the other hand, like when my
- 51:30country needed me and there was a war, I
- 51:33like signed up for it. So, um, you know,
- 51:37I I I understand. I think the tragedy is
- 51:40that at this point
- 51:43there are
- 51:46um
- 51:48there's not a lot of like as somebody
- 51:51pointed out they're like listen all the
- 51:52like highly motivated Ukrainian men that
- 51:54are like patriots those people signed up
- 51:57in 2023 you
- 52:14like draft is a form of slavery
- 52:16regardless of the cause. Uh it that's
- 52:18true. That's true. It's something I
- 52:20think about a lot that like the draft is
- 52:22something where we agree collectively
- 52:24that nation states just have this
- 52:26ability to do, right? They they say,
- 52:28"Listen, we can force work and fighting
- 52:31out of you. Um
- 52:33you know, if you're a man, uh we we can
- 52:37force you to fight and kill and die. Um
- 52:39if it's necessary to defend the state
- 52:42and again, the United States, right, I
- 52:45think about a lot like what being
- 52:47drafted to fight in Vietnam, being
- 52:48drafted to fight in Korea to be like,
- 52:50listen, the Vietnamese, there is no
- 52:51scenario where they threaten American
- 52:52core interests. Like it just doesn't
- 52:54happen." And
- 52:58Yeah, I mean I think about that a lot
- 53:00like like what does it mean when you
- 53:03have a society like you know we we
- 53:04always love to dunk on the boomers and
- 53:07stuff but like
- 53:09I maintain that part of the reason that
- 53:12the boomers but also their parents the
- 53:14silent generation part of the reason
- 53:16they built this like big safety net
- 53:19society was because
- 53:23the
- 53:26because their country had asked an
- 53:28unbelievable amount from them and when
- 53:31your country asks you to do some
- 53:33unhinged [ __ ] you go, "Well, [ __ ] a
- 53:36dude, you owe me this, right? You owe me
- 53:39VA healthcare. You owe me uh uh a social
- 53:44security. You owe me FHA backed loans or
- 53:47GI Bill backed loans." You have to think
- 53:49that like the benefits that current
- 53:50veterans get were all given not to
- 53:55today's veteran population which is like
- 53:57half a percent of the of the US
- 53:59population. Um but back then it would
- 54:01have been basically 80% of males,
- 54:06right?
- 54:09So you got to think that
- 54:14you know
- 54:16the government was like like these
- 54:17people were like hey man you asked a lot
- 54:19of us you got to
- 54:22you got to give something back.
- 54:46So, and again, I worry about a society
- 54:48that like looks at that that expects
- 54:51that like being a citizen of a
- 54:52government entails or being a citizen of
- 54:55a country, excuse me, being a citizen of
- 54:57a country, especially a democracy like
- 54:59demands asks nothing of its citizens.
- 55:02Like it only exists as a gimme or you
- 55:04think your your service to the country
- 55:06is paying taxes.
- 55:10Like I I've told you this. I loathe I
- 55:14loathe the term taxpayer. I'm a
- 55:16taxpayer. No, you're a citizen because a
- 55:20citizen like a taxpayer my Strikegum LLC
- 55:25is a taxpayer. It is an a a a legal
- 55:29entity that pays taxes. But Strikeum LLC
- 55:33is not a citizen and it doesn't have
- 55:37rights and privileges only. That's
- 55:39something that citizens have. Yes, I pay
- 55:42my taxes. I do it. I I play no tax
- 55:45games, right? Trust me, I have I have
- 55:50two investment properties that
- 55:52essentially have become completely
- 55:53unprofitable because I pay every local
- 55:56tax. Even though my my manager is like,
- 55:59"Dude, they're never going to come after
- 56:00you for the county short-term rental
- 56:03taxes, I don't care. I do the right
- 56:05thing." And if you and I'm like, "If
- 56:08they raise the taxes, I'm just going to
- 56:09have to sell the properties because they
- 56:11obviously don't." But the point is the
- 56:13point is is that yeah, your citizenship
- 56:17involves sure being a taxpayer, but
- 56:19you're also required you have to be an
- 56:21informed voter, right? You're if you're
- 56:23going to cast a vote in a democracy, you
- 56:25should know things about who's running
- 56:27and why.
- 56:30Yeah, Richard. Non-citizens also pay
- 56:32taxes. Exactly. I mean, that's true.
- 56:34That's that's that's another example of
- 56:35someone who pays taxes, right?
- 56:37Non-citizens, non-citizen entities pay
- 56:39taxes. Um, but I I don't like the idea
- 56:42of a taxpayer because also it like like
- 56:45Elon Musk pays let's say a thousand
- 56:48times more taxes than I do or a million
- 56:51times more taxes than I do.
- 56:53But
- 56:55he [snorts] is not a million times more
- 56:57important a citizen than I am. But if
- 56:59you use taxpayer as the metric of
- 57:02importance as a reflection of who you
- 57:04actually serve. I serve the taxpayer.
- 57:07But like Congress doesn't serve the
- 57:08taxpayer. They serve the voters. They
- 57:10serve the citizens of this country. They
- 57:13do not serve the taxpayers or they're
- 57:14not supposed to. Obviously, they serve
- 57:16the people who write campaign
- 57:18contributions, which implies that they
- 57:20are, of course, taxpayers. And the fact
- 57:22that they just like sort of dropped the
- 57:23mask and are like, I work for the
- 57:25taxpayer. And you're like, okay, so you
- 57:27work for Elon Musk or Tesla or or
- 57:32Tencent or Alibaba or or the big pharma
- 57:35or whoever writes you checks, right?
- 57:38and you work for them because they pay
- 57:40the most taxes. They're the best
- 57:41taxpayers. And sometimes in the bottom
- 57:4540% of Americans, they can [ __ ] right
- 57:47off, right? Like my kids aren't
- 57:49taxpayers.
- 57:51Are they citizens? Should Congress work
- 57:54on their behalf? Yeah, probably.
- 58:14Birth-based citizenship is not a chosen
- 58:16state. It should not carry obligations
- 58:17like the draft.
- 58:21That's that's one way to look at it. Uh
- 58:25I didn't ask to be born, bro. I mean, if
- 58:28you want to get technical, yeah, you can
- 58:30surrender your citizenship. You can
- 58:32easily surrender your citizenship. You
- 58:34just you got to I mean you got to find
- 58:36another country of residence and but
- 58:39that's pretty easy to do. And then you
- 58:40just go to a US embassy and you say,
- 58:42"Hey, I'm here to surrender my
- 58:43citizenship." I think it's like 1,500
- 58:44bucks.
- 58:52Uh let's see.
- 58:54I wonder what the process is for
- 58:56surrendering
- 58:58US
- 59:00citizenship. I'm going to get like a
- 59:02bunch of crazy ads. All right. If you
- 59:04thought my ads were weird before,
- 59:06they're going to be worse now. Okay.
- 59:07Surrendering renouncing US citizenship.
- 59:08Inerson appearance for a US consular,
- 59:10diplomatic officer, US embassy or
- 59:11consulate outside the United States.
- 59:13Must be done abroad, obviously. Um,
- 59:16schedule an appointment, contact US
- 59:18Department of State, request an
- 59:19appointment, bring your US passport,
- 59:20proof of citizenship, like a birth
- 59:22certificate, proof of foreign
- 59:23citizenship or nationality, right? You
- 59:26just got to be something else. Uh, you
- 59:28got to have somewhere else to stay.
- 59:31Fill out documentation, but don't sign
- 59:33them until you're instructed to do so.
- 59:36Council officer will verify you're
- 59:37acting voluntarily without duress and
- 59:39that you understand the irreversible
- 59:40nature of the choice. Pay a
- 59:42non-refundable renunciation fee because
- 59:44it's the government. Take the oath of
- 59:46renunciation and then sign it. But it's
- 59:48irrevocable. You can't you can't change
- 59:50your mind. You should hold or require
- 59:52citizenship in another country.
- 59:53Otherwise, renunciation leaves you
- 59:54stateless.
- 59:56Doesn't automatically clear plus tax
- 59:58obligations. You may be subject to exit
- 1:00:00taxes or a final filing.
- 1:00:04So there you go. You don't have to be
- 1:00:06here. You don't want to be a citizen,
- 1:00:08that's fine.
- 1:00:28Jane Johnson. Yeah. Even if someone who
- 1:00:30hasn't worked a single day still pays
- 1:00:31tax if he buys Yeah. food, sales tax.
- 1:00:33That's a good point. That's a good
- 1:00:35point.
- 1:00:39But again, my kid my my my kid like my
- 1:00:42my kids cannot legally purchase
- 1:00:43anything. Um
- 1:00:46like
- 1:00:48uh my 80-year-old grandmother. You also
- 1:00:50produce again like the tears of like,
- 1:00:53okay, my 80-year-old grandmother pays
- 1:00:55probably like functionally nothing in
- 1:00:57taxes because she has basically no
- 1:00:59income. Um, [clears throat] you know,
- 1:01:02I'm sure she pays I'm sure like there
- 1:01:05might be some taxes because her her
- 1:01:08like,
- 1:01:10you know, her my uncle pays for her like
- 1:01:13care home like like is the uh power of
- 1:01:16attorney pays for her care home. So they
- 1:01:18should probably pay some taxes there.
- 1:01:19But like the the working for taxpayers
- 1:01:21implies that you work for both human
- 1:01:24beings and for legal entities that pay
- 1:01:26taxes
- 1:01:28and that it implies the existence of a
- 1:01:30score in which in which like citizens
- 1:01:34are all like voters all have one vote. I
- 1:01:36work for the voters. Each voter gets one
- 1:01:38vote. All voters are equally important
- 1:01:40regardless. But if you work for the
- 1:01:42taxpayers, then you're implying that if
- 1:01:45you pay $1 in taxes, you're one
- 1:01:48millionth as important as someone who
- 1:01:50pays a million dollars in taxes.
- 1:02:25again the like you shouldn't force
- 1:02:26people to fight, bro. It's like okay
- 1:02:29well like you shouldn't but but that
- 1:02:31also implies like uh you should just
- 1:02:33volunte
- 1:02:34where their taxes go they'll just give
- 1:02:36you taxes. They'll just hand over the
- 1:02:38taxes if they like what they're being
- 1:02:40used for. No, they won't. That's stupid
- 1:02:42and you're an idiot if you think that.
- 1:02:45Not you. I'm not saying that's what you
- 1:02:46think, but like you would you would
- 1:02:48laugh at someone who says that who says
- 1:02:50people will just see what the taxes buy
- 1:02:51and they'll just voluntarily turn over
- 1:02:53their money. You're like, "Nah, dude.
- 1:02:55That's not how this works." We all know
- 1:02:57that's not the case. You got to have
- 1:03:00like carrots and sticks, right? Mostly
- 1:03:03sticks. And you know, you say, "Listen,
- 1:03:08like you're happy to consume the things
- 1:03:10that society provides, like the safety,
- 1:03:13um the secure property rights, the lack
- 1:03:17of roving gangs of want and committing
- 1:03:19want and violence, the lack of of
- 1:03:22warlords, um you know, the the running
- 1:03:25water, the electricity.
- 1:03:28Um,
- 1:03:30[clears throat]
- 1:03:32like if you like all those things, then
- 1:03:33you have to realize that living in that
- 1:03:35society comes with obligations. Part of
- 1:03:37it is voting and being informed and
- 1:03:39making sure you you
- 1:03:42put into you advocate for policies that
- 1:03:45you think are going to be best for your
- 1:03:47for the free society of the future. You
- 1:03:50also have to pay your taxes and not play
- 1:03:52stupid games, right? Not again you can
- 1:03:55surrender your citizenship and you won't
- 1:03:56have to pay those taxes but you also
- 1:03:59have other obligations you know again
- 1:04:02those things can include like um
- 1:04:06like you know being drafted fighting in
- 1:04:09a critical war that your nation has. Um,
- 1:04:12you also have an obligation, for
- 1:04:14example, to do other things that are
- 1:04:16like basically pro-social, right? Um,
- 1:04:20you know, respecting the rules of the
- 1:04:22country, right? If the country has a law
- 1:04:25that says that you can't
- 1:04:28like
- 1:04:30um
- 1:04:32that says no no no spitting on the
- 1:04:36president or whatever. You can't spit on
- 1:04:37him. um you you just got to go, hey, I I
- 1:04:41gotta respect this, right? Civil
- 1:04:42disobedience. I get it. That is a but
- 1:04:45those are the whole point of civil
- 1:04:47disobedience that it is very carefully
- 1:04:49done, very selective and in advance of
- 1:04:53like of like deeply held beliefs.
- 1:04:59Uh Richard, no, no, no, no. You have to
- 1:05:01pay taxes uh the the final tax if you
- 1:05:03surrender. Also, I guess if you earn
- 1:05:05money in the United States, but you you
- 1:05:07can't if you surrender your citizenship,
- 1:05:08you have to reside somewhere else. It
- 1:05:10has to be done abroad,
- 1:05:28right? There's also things like you have
- 1:05:30to, you know, in in emergencies, you
- 1:05:33know, you may also have to do certain
- 1:05:36things like you may have to listen to
- 1:05:38authorities, right? Like uh
- 1:05:42for example, there's a there was a um an
- 1:05:44active shooter situation like in my
- 1:05:46neighborhood like somebody had called
- 1:05:47the cops and was like, "I have a gun.
- 1:05:48I'm going to hurt myself." Well, the
- 1:05:50cops had to sit there and tell people,
- 1:05:52"Hey, listen. Don't go outside. There's
- 1:05:54there could be a shooter." And yeah, did
- 1:05:57they legally have the authority to
- 1:05:58imprison me on my home? No. But like as
- 1:06:01a citizen, also as someone who enjoys
- 1:06:04not being shot, I was like, we all just
- 1:06:06got to play the rules, right? This is
- 1:06:08one of those things. You live in a
- 1:06:10civilized society. You want to have
- 1:06:12police that can respond to these sort of
- 1:06:13things. Then you have to like like not
- 1:06:17be a jerk to them and not pointlessly
- 1:06:19make their life difficult. Again, does
- 1:06:22that absolve police from misconduct?
- 1:06:24Does it mean you always listen to a cop
- 1:06:26no matter what? No. But like that should
- 1:06:28be your default
- 1:06:32your default response, right? You that
- 1:06:34like without a compelling reason to say
- 1:06:35otherwise. Part of living in a civilized
- 1:06:37society, a a society is saying, "Listen,
- 1:06:40that's just something we do here,
- 1:06:41right?" When when a traffic cop is goes
- 1:06:43like this, you're not like, "F that guy.
- 1:06:46Some dude in the road can't tell me to
- 1:06:47stop." Like, no. Uh what happens if
- 1:06:50you're stateless? It just means that you
- 1:06:51live somewhere, but you're either a
- 1:06:53refugee or a you have like you have a
- 1:06:57different status in a country that's not
- 1:06:58citizenship. Lots of countries make
- 1:07:02citizenship hard to access. Uh you could
- 1:07:03live, for example, in Dubai, right? You
- 1:07:05go, you get residency, but you don't
- 1:07:07have a you're not a citizen of Dubai.
- 1:07:09You're just a Dubai resident and you're
- 1:07:11a stateless person.
- 1:07:38Yeah,
- 1:07:43interesting. DJ, yeah. Uh, talking about
- 1:07:46who didn't vote in the last election.
- 1:07:47Okay, I know this is like distraction
- 1:07:48and we've we've got other stories to
- 1:07:50cover, but I do want to point this out
- 1:07:51because I think it's interesting. Um
- 1:07:55uh if
- 1:07:58okay
- 1:08:02here is a map that's called if did not
- 1:08:05vote was a candidate in each election.
- 1:08:06This is all eligible voters who won and
- 1:08:09all eligible voters not who won among
- 1:08:12people that voted but basically if did
- 1:08:16not vote was a candidate
- 1:08:19a huge portion of the electorate
- 1:08:23would have just never happened. No one
- 1:08:25would have won. I mean did not vote
- 1:08:27would have won easily.
- 1:08:29Um which is interesting and I think
- 1:08:32that's actually true of almost all
- 1:08:34elections.
- 1:08:57The towel has co mandates. Okay, dude.
- 1:08:59Get over yourself. Like
- 1:09:03most of them, believe it or not, were
- 1:09:05suggestions. Were either suggestions or
- 1:09:08they were policies of private businesses
- 1:09:11that can do whatever they want. like my
- 1:09:13grocery store doesn't have a legal
- 1:09:15obligation to like have me wear a mask.
- 1:09:21And again, believe it or not, in a
- 1:09:24crisis, the government
- 1:09:27has some emergency powers to handle
- 1:09:29public health crisis.
- 1:09:34And again, if you think that they're
- 1:09:36like there it was a totalitarian
- 1:09:38dictatorship, but you can't believe that
- 1:09:40and also simultaneously be like there
- 1:09:42was unprecedented protest and rioting
- 1:09:44like you can't say both. You can't be
- 1:09:46like Americans were totally oppressed
- 1:09:48and destroyed by a by a totalitarian
- 1:09:52regime. And also there were remember
- 1:09:54January 6 was a was co January 6 2021,
- 1:09:58right? You can't you can't say both. You
- 1:10:01can't be like January 6th was a was a
- 1:10:03large peaceful protest that nothing bad
- 1:10:06happened, but also COVID banned freedom
- 1:10:08of speech forever, right? You can't say,
- 1:10:11"Oh, Black Lives Matter protest
- 1:10:13destroyed all your blue cities and also
- 1:10:16freedom of speech was banned."
- 1:10:19Like, you got to pick one. You gota you
- 1:10:21got to pick one.
- 1:10:26Like, your grocery store asked you to
- 1:10:27wear a mask and I'm sorry. I'm sorry
- 1:10:28that happened. Yeah, I would have
- 1:10:30preferred to not have a global pandemic.
- 1:10:33I I would have preferred that.
- 1:10:40I know the trolls are in here just
- 1:10:41getting me worked up, but you know, I'm
- 1:10:42just in a mood today. I'm I'm all hyped
- 1:10:44up on Strike Gum.
- 1:11:17N I I like this cuz here's the thing
- 1:11:19with the trolls. One, it's something to
- 1:11:21talk about. Two, I think it's really
- 1:11:23good because it's like inoculating,
- 1:11:24right? It's it to me I think my goal is
- 1:11:27with some of these trolls is that if you
- 1:11:30encounter them in your real lives, they
- 1:11:33love to
- 1:11:35like trolls love to put these things
- 1:11:36out. And there's real people that
- 1:11:38believe these things, right? Trolls that
- 1:11:39believe absurd stuff I don't I don't
- 1:11:40like get get worked up about. But I
- 1:11:43think it's really important when
- 1:11:44somebody says something that is a
- 1:11:46popular opinion I disagree with to say,
- 1:11:48"Listen, here is the way here is the
- 1:11:51evidence-based framework for why we we
- 1:11:55believe these things." Because a lot of
- 1:11:57times people a lot of times people's
- 1:11:59response is, "Well, that's just wrong."
- 1:12:01Like flat earth. Like flat earth, that's
- 1:12:03just wrong. But then you go, okay,
- 1:12:06how would like what exactly are they
- 1:12:08claiming and what exactly have we
- 1:12:10observed in our individual lives that
- 1:12:12refute this and like why do we know
- 1:12:14they're wrong? So this way, right, maybe
- 1:12:15you have a young cousin, maybe you have
- 1:12:17a kid who goes, "Hey man, I've been
- 1:12:19consuming a lot of stuff and they say
- 1:12:20the earth isn't round." You go, "Hey,
- 1:12:23let's talk for a minute." Right? You
- 1:12:26know, why
- 1:12:28like why do they why is the day so much
- 1:12:30longer in Australia than, you know, why
- 1:12:32is it summer in Australia but winter
- 1:12:34here?
- 1:12:38Like I want to give people tools to be
- 1:12:42better analysts and better thinkers. And
- 1:12:45when someone comes into the chat and
- 1:12:47rolls out misinformation or
- 1:12:48disinformation,
- 1:12:50um, you know, again, I'll take it and
- 1:12:53say, "Okay, here's the claim. Let's
- 1:12:55let's break down this claim. What does
- 1:12:57it mean? Right? And again, especially we
- 1:12:59can couch it in our values like we talk
- 1:13:01about being citizens. Being citizens
- 1:13:03means some of these things happen,
- 1:13:05right?
- 1:13:14Again.
- 1:13:18Okay.
- 1:13:23Jimmy Turbo, you and me, boss. You and
- 1:13:25me, boss. The sun is somehow both so low
- 1:13:28it disappears quickly over the horizon,
- 1:13:29but also so high that it appears like
- 1:13:32directly overhead despite it not like we
- 1:13:35we we talked about it earlier in the
- 1:13:36stream. It it the the altitude of the
- 1:13:38sun makes no sense.
- 1:13:42A critical thought is our biggest
- 1:13:43national deficit. That's the real
- 1:13:44critical mineral. All right. The real
- 1:13:46critical mineral is [ __ ]
- 1:13:49the ability to perform basic analysis.
- 1:14:10Can we make a list of the Paul is wrong
- 1:14:12award? Yeah, I mean I was wrong. I
- 1:14:14thought when the war started I was like
- 1:14:16Russia big, Ukraine small, Ukraine's
- 1:14:18going to get its ass kicked. I was
- 1:14:19wrong. I got that [ __ ] way wrong.
- 1:14:26Okay guys, let's talk about it.
- 1:14:36The government of the UK is warning its
- 1:14:38citizens that they should be prepared
- 1:14:40for war. But it seems like their
- 1:14:44warnings are actually completely
- 1:14:46grounded in reality. Just how is the UK
- 1:14:50potentially sleepwalking itself into a
- 1:14:53war? Take a look. So Russia
- 1:14:57has threatened to strike British
- 1:14:59military targets. The defense ministry
- 1:15:00of the UK says that quote sites beyond
- 1:15:02Ukraine's borders could be targeted or
- 1:15:04sorry the defense ministry of of Russia
- 1:15:07says that site quote beyond Ukraine's
- 1:15:09borders could be targeted after Ukraine
- 1:15:10used a British-made missile. Now Russia
- 1:15:13has threatened to strike British
- 1:15:14military targets inside and outside of
- 1:15:16Ukraine after British missiles were used
- 1:15:17to hit Russian territory. This is from
- 1:15:20the spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign
- 1:15:22Ministry who in a briefing in Moscow uh
- 1:15:26literally said, "We're going to hit you
- 1:15:28beyond Ukraine's borders."
- 1:15:30And I point this out that this is sort
- 1:15:32of stupid on a number of levels. First
- 1:15:35off, she accused London of bearing
- 1:15:37direct responsibility for what she
- 1:15:39characterized as terror attacks on
- 1:15:40Russian soil and warned that those found
- 1:15:42quote guilty of war crimes against
- 1:15:43Russian civilians would be quote
- 1:15:45punished commensurate to their deeds.
- 1:15:47Now, this is because the Ukraine used
- 1:15:50British Storm Shadow missiles, a
- 1:15:52long-range cruise missile to strike
- 1:15:53targets inside of Russia. and some
- 1:15:56Russian civilians have indeed been
- 1:15:57killed uh in the missile and drone
- 1:16:01attacks that uh Keev has conducted
- 1:16:04against Russian logistics targets
- 1:16:06particularly Russia's state o oil
- 1:16:08industry as well as um a key Russian
- 1:16:12logistics hub uh the Wildberries which
- 1:16:15sells significant amounts of personal
- 1:16:17military equipment to Russian mobilized
- 1:16:19service members or sorry Russian contra
- 1:16:21contract service members. Now,
- 1:16:23obviously, uh Andy Bernham, prime
- 1:16:26minister of the UK, said that Moscow was
- 1:16:28making outrageous threats. Uh Russia
- 1:16:30also earlier this week threatened to
- 1:16:31attack British factories,
- 1:16:34uh after it gave Ukraine the blueprints
- 1:16:36to build its own storm shadow missiles.
- 1:16:38Now, what I think is wild about this is
- 1:16:42first and foremost that this is this is
- 1:16:45transparent Russian hypocrisy, right?
- 1:16:47They like to, and this is a really
- 1:16:49classic Russian maneuver, to um to try
- 1:16:54to hide behind a mirror to say, "Ah,
- 1:16:57you're the bad guys here." Because
- 1:16:58almost everything that Russia accuses
- 1:17:00the UK of doing, Russia is extremely
- 1:17:01guilty of. Uh first off, the very notion
- 1:17:05of that a third country
- 1:17:08is somehow
- 1:17:11uh that by providing aid or assistance
- 1:17:14to Ukraine that this constitutes being a
- 1:17:17bringing a new country into the war in
- 1:17:19unprecedented escalation.
- 1:17:21Russia is currently not may but has and
- 1:17:25is currently deploying North Korean
- 1:17:27troops uh who are conducting combat
- 1:17:30operations. drone operators, ballistic
- 1:17:31missile units are currently firing
- 1:17:33missiles at Kev like as we speak. So
- 1:17:38Russia is the one who is really bringing
- 1:17:39in third party countries into this. Uh
- 1:17:42you also of course have the fact that
- 1:17:44Russia has as a matter of routine
- 1:17:46targeted civilian sites particularly um
- 1:17:50for years they've been targeting uh
- 1:17:51power generation facilities in the
- 1:17:53winter in order to freeze Ukrainian
- 1:17:56civilians to death which they do every
- 1:17:58year. Uh they also Russia has routinely
- 1:18:00targeted um shopping malls and in fact
- 1:18:04targeted a shopping mall then actually
- 1:18:05doubletapped it killing uh a bunch of
- 1:18:08first responders. So the very notion
- 1:18:11that the UK is somehow a belligerent
- 1:18:16because it's given Russia a ballistic
- 1:18:18missile is is kind of absurd. And again,
- 1:18:22the fact that they call the use of Storm
- 1:18:24Shadow cruise missiles terror attacks
- 1:18:26against Russia uh and a war crime is
- 1:18:29also comical because again, if we're
- 1:18:32going to be arresting people for war
- 1:18:34crimes, there's basically the entire
- 1:18:36Russian military is fairly clearly
- 1:18:39culpable in this. Uh but again, this is
- 1:18:43part of the Russian propaganda machine.
- 1:18:46Now, where things get more interesting
- 1:18:48is what the UK is telling its citizens
- 1:18:50at home. Because as we have talked about
- 1:18:53here, by the way, the other hypocrisy of
- 1:18:55Russia is that the UK government has
- 1:18:59been targeted repeatedly
- 1:19:01by Russian intelligence services with
- 1:19:05attacks, sometimes very dangerous
- 1:19:07attacks. Um
- 1:19:10the hybrid war by Russia against the UK
- 1:19:14is kind of wild and the we found for
- 1:19:19example that UK Prime Minister Kier
- 1:19:21Starmer uh his home and his personal
- 1:19:23vehicle were emulated by arsonists um
- 1:19:27working on behalf of the Russian FSB but
- 1:19:30also
- 1:19:31uh the Russia has been conducting
- 1:19:34routine cyber attacks against the UK.
- 1:19:37Russia has been uh uh targeting right
- 1:19:41with with um bombs or uh arson attacks
- 1:19:46uh drone factories and other suppliers
- 1:19:49inside the UK. Right?
- 1:19:53So this
- 1:19:55this notion that the the Russians are
- 1:20:00completely don't want any of this.
- 1:20:02They've done nothing to to the the UK is
- 1:20:05being a big mean bully is absolutely
- 1:20:07absurd. And the
- 1:20:12unwillingness of the UK to come out and
- 1:20:15and honestly, I mean, the UK does come
- 1:20:17out and say it that listen, Russia
- 1:20:20conducts routine hybrid attacks against
- 1:20:25UK government facilities. And now the UK
- 1:20:27is actually warning its citizens,
- 1:20:29listen, stock up on food. Now, they
- 1:20:31frame it as a threat from the the the
- 1:20:33climate crisis and hostile states, but
- 1:20:35I'm going to be honest, hostile states
- 1:20:37probably leading the charge here. Or at
- 1:20:41best, it's going to be like a hybrid
- 1:20:42version of it, right?
- 1:20:45Uh right. The government's resilience
- 1:20:47campaign aims to ensure people can cope
- 1:20:49in a national disaster to free resources
- 1:20:50to help the most vulnerable, those who
- 1:20:52can't. But UK citizens are told to stock
- 1:20:55up on tin food and take steps to ensure
- 1:20:56they're prepared for national
- 1:20:57emergencies as part of a new government
- 1:20:59campaign to improve the nation's
- 1:21:00resilience. Right?
- 1:21:03People should be able to prepare for
- 1:21:04extreme weather events, potential
- 1:21:06attacks from hostile states, stock up on
- 1:21:08bottled water, uh food, and other basic
- 1:21:11supplies. Uh households should have
- 1:21:13knowledge of how to cope in a crisis to
- 1:21:14free up immediate government resources
- 1:21:16to help the most vulnerable. And this
- 1:21:18could range from cyber attacks which
- 1:21:20again as we have talked about uh Russian
- 1:21:22hackers routinely target critical
- 1:21:25infrastructure uh
- 1:21:28like water supply facilities right or
- 1:21:31power generation stations. So
- 1:21:35I mean again a quick search here reveals
- 1:21:37that the Russian governments routinely
- 1:21:40target uh all kinds of critical
- 1:21:44infrastructure. I mean it's it's almost
- 1:21:46like a joke. Uh almost every hospital my
- 1:21:48wife has ever worked at has been
- 1:21:49targeted by Russian hackers and had its
- 1:21:52um uh patient care portals and and
- 1:21:54patient records and entire electronic
- 1:21:57systems downed. And by the way, every
- 1:21:59time those hospitals make a statement
- 1:22:00where they say we have backup paper
- 1:22:02backups, they do not. Uh I can tell you
- 1:22:04that the intake form for their
- 1:22:06psychiatry department um was generated
- 1:22:08by me. Uh my wife texted me when when
- 1:22:11they got hacked, this was years ago, and
- 1:22:12she was like, "Yo, we have no intake
- 1:22:14forms." And I was like, "Okay." Okay, I
- 1:22:15Googled the different hospitals intake
- 1:22:17form in the US and I just changed the
- 1:22:19letter head and sent it to her. Um, so
- 1:22:21there there's no backups. These these
- 1:22:23these hospitals are absolute dog [ __ ]
- 1:22:26But again, it is normal for Russia to
- 1:22:31make these sort of to to target this
- 1:22:34critical infrastructure. Obviously, if
- 1:22:36they were to target it in an incident
- 1:22:37where say there's extreme heat straining
- 1:22:39the power grid, right? Imagine the power
- 1:22:41grid getting hacked during another heat
- 1:22:42wave or flooding or any number of
- 1:22:45disasters, right? And I think that's the
- 1:22:47real fear is that the UK may say, "Hey,
- 1:22:50listen. What would happen if there was a
- 1:22:52massive heat wave, a bunch of people had
- 1:22:54heat injuries, and then the Russians
- 1:22:56hacked the NHS's uh uh hospital
- 1:22:58admission system, right? It would be a
- 1:23:02critical critical disaster, right? or
- 1:23:04again a winter uh a freezing winter
- 1:23:07storm and the UK's um power grid gets
- 1:23:11hacked and taken down. These kind of
- 1:23:13things are worst case scenarios for
- 1:23:16sure, but
- 1:23:19uh
- 1:23:21oh my god. Okay, but this is this is
- 1:23:24classic. The government was criticized,
- 1:23:26however, for its decision to send an
- 1:23:28emergency phone alert warning of
- 1:23:30wildfires last week, which charities and
- 1:23:32domestic abuse survivors said risk the
- 1:23:34safety of people who might be hiding
- 1:23:36secret phones.
- 1:23:40Guys,
- 1:23:42if you have a secret phone, keep it
- 1:23:45turned off until you're ready to use it.
- 1:23:49Classic. I mean, that's that's the UK.
- 1:23:52The UK is just like
- 1:23:54No one complains as much as uh the UK
- 1:23:59people in the UK. I've never seen a
- 1:24:01country where more people whine about
- 1:24:03things and get taken seriously.
- 1:24:05But the bigger takeaway is that the UK
- 1:24:08seems to be aware something big and bad
- 1:24:10is coming. And the Baltics are too,
- 1:24:12right? They are saying that the Russia
- 1:24:15threat hasn't been mitigated or changed
- 1:24:16at all by the CIA director's Moscow
- 1:24:19visit. And remember, this isn't because
- 1:24:22the Baltics assess Russia to be uh
- 1:24:25peaceful or nice or not a threat. The
- 1:24:28Baltics have also been victims of
- 1:24:30Russian cyber attacks, sabotage, uh
- 1:24:35public opinion influence, uh repeated
- 1:24:38drone incursions. remember uh a Russian
- 1:24:41attack drone armed with real explosives
- 1:24:44uh three of them actually were found to
- 1:24:46have flown into Leipzig airport uh
- 1:24:48targeting a Ukrainian cargo plane that
- 1:24:51was full of high explosives that were
- 1:24:53being shipped to Ukraine as military
- 1:24:56aid. So the Russians obviously are more
- 1:24:59than capable of staging real significant
- 1:25:02terror attacks and
- 1:25:05again Estonia's minister right not
- 1:25:07mincing words the threat posed by Russia
- 1:25:10and possible provocations against NATO
- 1:25:11must be taken seriously and that's
- 1:25:13precisely what we're doing again taking
- 1:25:14things seriously and taking robust
- 1:25:16action are not the same thing right you
- 1:25:18you have to do both you have to take it
- 1:25:20seriously and then take actual action
- 1:25:23but they also add I want to tell the
- 1:25:25people of Lafia there's currently no
- 1:25:26reason for concern. Lafia's level of
- 1:25:28military threat has not changed. The
- 1:25:29risk of direct military invasion threats
- 1:25:31to Lavia is currently low. That is that
- 1:25:33is true. And I think again this is the
- 1:25:36real fear is that this hybrid war
- 1:25:41is dangerous, but it's dangerous in ways
- 1:25:45that are meant to be hard for
- 1:25:47governments to counter. Right? The UK
- 1:25:49can very much handle a military
- 1:25:52incursion, right? a a Russian um you
- 1:25:54know Russian tank brigades driving into
- 1:25:56Latvia is something NATO is ready for.
- 1:25:59NATO is not ready. NATO countries are
- 1:26:02not ready for what happens when again
- 1:26:04Russian propagandists uh push a message
- 1:26:07that a um that a highly communicable
- 1:26:12disease is actually not dangerous at all
- 1:26:15and the government is lying to you. uh
- 1:26:17or when as we discussed uh a freeze
- 1:26:21happens and hackers down the power grid,
- 1:26:24right? Or a flood uh uh requires a surge
- 1:26:29of aid to a a remote town and someone
- 1:26:32associated with the Russian government
- 1:26:34destroys railways leading to that town.
- 1:26:37This is something that you governments
- 1:26:39are just not that prepared to do. And
- 1:26:40it's very hard to get people to
- 1:26:43understand the difference between a
- 1:26:47these kind these kind of threats and a
- 1:26:49true national crisis. It's very
- 1:26:51difficult and the Russian the Russians
- 1:26:54exploit this all the time. Also because
- 1:26:57this is part of almost like a Russian
- 1:26:59insurgency. Uh having fought an
- 1:27:01insurgency in Afghanistan, what I can
- 1:27:03tell you is the insurgency wants to core
- 1:27:06goal of an insurgency is to humiliate
- 1:27:09the legitimate government, to make the
- 1:27:11legitimate government appear powerless.
- 1:27:13And that's one of the reasons why
- 1:27:15oftentimes insurgencies will target uh
- 1:27:18individuals or institutions of zero
- 1:27:21military significance. They'll just blow
- 1:27:23up random cars. They'll just start a an
- 1:27:26interthnic conflict. And the reason they
- 1:27:28do it is because it's about it's about
- 1:27:31showing the people that their government
- 1:27:33is powerless to to stop anything. And
- 1:27:36that's a core part of this Russian
- 1:27:37strategy as well. That's why they send
- 1:27:39these drones, right, again and again
- 1:27:41because they are want to send a message
- 1:27:43to the average lobby and the average
- 1:27:44member of the UK to say, "Listen, your
- 1:27:47government isn't as strong as they want
- 1:27:49you to think it is. They can't stop our
- 1:27:51drones. They can't stop our hackers.
- 1:27:53They can't even protect their prime
- 1:27:54minister's own house from being burned
- 1:27:56down by Russian FSB agents."
- 1:27:59And so
- 1:28:01I think that's why you when you combine
- 1:28:03that with the fact that the United
- 1:28:04States is become a less and less
- 1:28:07reliable ally, you start to see why
- 1:28:09these governments are grasping its
- 1:28:10straws here. Right? Reportedly, Berlin
- 1:28:12is actually weighing funding the UK
- 1:28:14nuclear arsenal. Uh not out of the
- 1:28:16goodness of their heart, but because
- 1:28:18they say, "Listen, we it's really
- 1:28:20important to have a nuclear deterrent."
- 1:28:23And while Germany
- 1:28:25won't build their own nuclear weapons,
- 1:28:27they have too big a Green Party. Um the
- 1:28:31UK may choose to extend its own nuclear
- 1:28:34arsenal to protect NATO in a way because
- 1:28:38they're not sure the United States will
- 1:28:41be there. And this is again a scoop from
- 1:28:44the Telegraph that Berlin is seeking
- 1:28:46greater involvement in Europe's existing
- 1:28:47nuclear programs developed by the UK and
- 1:28:49France rather than pursuing their own
- 1:28:50nuclear arsenal. I think that's just
- 1:28:52that just makes sense, right? They say,
- 1:28:54quote, "We have a strong interest that
- 1:28:55the existing nuclear powers in Europe
- 1:28:57extend their capabilities."
- 1:28:59And again, there's thinking and talking
- 1:29:01about how existing nuclear capabilities
- 1:29:03like the Trident, they play a bigger
- 1:29:04role for the defense of Europe and deep
- 1:29:06cooperation among European countries,
- 1:29:08namely because they're not sure the
- 1:29:10United States would actually pull the
- 1:29:11trigger and actually defend NATO
- 1:29:13territories. Right. Under article 5 and
- 1:29:16based on sort of treaties and statements
- 1:29:17by the United States government, the
- 1:29:19policy up until now was that our nuclear
- 1:29:22arsenal protects Warsaw or Kkow just as
- 1:29:26much as it protects New York. So if
- 1:29:28Russian if a Russian tank battalion
- 1:29:29rolled into Warsaw or if the Russians
- 1:29:31used a nuclear weapon against Warsaw, we
- 1:29:34would treat it as though they had bombed
- 1:29:35Kansas City.
- 1:29:37Actually, maybe one of our good states,
- 1:29:39one of our good cities. Um we would we
- 1:29:42would respond, right? we would say
- 1:29:43listen this is it this is the mutually
- 1:29:46assured destruction and the Europeans
- 1:29:50are not sure that's the case anymore so
- 1:29:51they say listen we need to have people
- 1:29:53who we believe will be critical will
- 1:29:55will actually show up when the chips are
- 1:29:57down and that I think is all part of the
- 1:30:02same sort of theme of the European
- 1:30:04governments waking up to a a much more
- 1:30:09brutal difficult reality
- 1:30:13one that I think in part over the last
- 1:30:1520 plus years has been sort of
- 1:30:17subsidized by the United States that the
- 1:30:20US military's job is to defend everyone
- 1:30:22else and protect everyone else's
- 1:30:24interest and so they don't have to worry
- 1:30:26so much. It's like my kids. My kids
- 1:30:28don't worry about why we lock our doors
- 1:30:30or why dad has a gun safe, right? They
- 1:30:32don't worry about those things because
- 1:30:33they're not supposed to. They're kids.
- 1:30:35But one day they'll grow up and we'll
- 1:30:37talk to them about, hey, this is why we
- 1:30:38lock our doors. This is why we use a
- 1:30:40deadbolt. this is why you you you carry
- 1:30:44this or that thing. And I think that's
- 1:30:47the reality the UK is starting to to
- 1:30:49wake up to to say, listen, we have real
- 1:30:51enemies and when push comes to shove,
- 1:30:54we're not certain anyone is will be
- 1:30:56willing to fight our enemies um
- 1:31:00and protect us as much as we have to
- 1:31:03protect ourselves.
- 1:31:07Whiskey Omega, thanks for the five.
- 1:31:08Article five might be a new point. Not
- 1:31:10sure we can hold Poland back much
- 1:31:12longer. I don't know if Poland's being
- 1:31:13held back. Uh to be honest, I think the
- 1:31:17Poles are
- 1:31:19happy to continue to learn as much as
- 1:31:23humanly possible from
- 1:31:26um
- 1:31:29from the Ukraine war, right? The longer
- 1:31:31this goes on, the the stronger the
- 1:31:33Polish military gets, the weaker the
- 1:31:35Russian military gets. So the Poles want
- 1:31:37this to stretch on as long as possible.
- 1:31:39The more Russia gets weakened and the
- 1:31:41stronger an ally like Ukraine gets, the
- 1:31:44better off the polls see themselves. I
- 1:31:48their calculus is totally correct.
- 1:32:21All right,
- 1:32:23we got one more. We're going to be
- 1:32:25taking a look at some footage from the
- 1:32:2724th mech,
- 1:32:30the most dangerous road
- 1:32:33in Ukraine.
- 1:32:42Let's talk about it.
- 1:32:48All right,
- 1:32:50let's do this.
- 1:32:58What's it like operating in the most
- 1:33:00dangerous road in all of Ukraine? Well,
- 1:33:04for the soldiers of the 24th mech,
- 1:33:06they've released a video, 30 minutes on
- 1:33:09the road to Costanka, and we're going to
- 1:33:12take a look at what it's like to operate
- 1:33:14in one of the most dangerous roads
- 1:33:16probably in the entire world. Let's
- 1:33:19crack into this one.
- 1:33:22So, for the record, this is uh 32
- 1:33:23minutes long. We're probably going to do
- 1:33:24about half of it. And if you like it,
- 1:33:26let me know in the comments. Um and I'll
- 1:33:28usually get another one. Uh two other
- 1:33:30notes, check to make sure you are still
- 1:33:32subscribed. YouTube's been kind of
- 1:33:33unsubscribing me from people. And of
- 1:33:35course also um if you're not subscribed,
- 1:33:38you should be. Uh the second one is if
- 1:33:40that if you appreciate that I can do
- 1:33:42this content and make this kind of
- 1:33:43unvarnished analysis, you can imagine
- 1:33:45making this kind of stuff. Sponsors
- 1:33:48basically won't touch me, but you guys
- 1:33:50can help me out by being a sponsor on
- 1:33:52combatnews.com.
- 1:33:54Uh members get access to membersonly
- 1:33:57videos, uncensored combat footage that
- 1:33:59YouTube would never let me show you,
- 1:34:00like not stuff from YouTube. um the
- 1:34:02really gnarly stuff. Also, weekly Q&A's,
- 1:34:05shout outs to the end of videos and
- 1:34:06more. The link is right there in the
- 1:34:08description. Okay.
- 1:34:15Okay. So, yeah, Costantine. Costa. Fun
- 1:34:19fact, there's not that many fun facts
- 1:34:21about Costantine, but one is that I was
- 1:34:23actually in Costa in 2024. Uh obviously
- 1:34:26in 2024 for for context guys, Costantine
- 1:34:30is um right here. So here's Crematorque.
- 1:34:33Cost Coantene is right down to the south
- 1:34:36and uh it was before Costa. There was
- 1:34:41Tourett. So in 2024 when I was there,
- 1:34:45this was uh let's see, I was there in
- 1:34:47about December, I think 15th. So in
- 1:34:50December uh I was with the or like I was
- 1:34:54uh being accompanied by the Leu Brigade.
- 1:34:57They were like, "Hey, we want to show
- 1:34:58you this headquarters in uh overseeing
- 1:35:00the Battle of Tourett, which they were
- 1:35:02goal was to turn Tourett into just like
- 1:35:04a Russian kill zone." But they said,
- 1:35:05"Listen, the Russians are trying this
- 1:35:07new thing. They've got these fiber optic
- 1:35:10drones that are not jammable, so we may
- 1:35:13not be able to get there." And so we
- 1:35:15drove down uh way now past Co Costineka
- 1:35:18uh to around even Opilia or maybe even
- 1:35:21Placivka. And we ended up having to hide
- 1:35:24in a house because we could hear a
- 1:35:26Russian FPV drone stalking us. And uh we
- 1:35:29were we literally it got I mean close
- 1:35:31enough that we could hear the buzzing.
- 1:35:32It was probably within about 40 40 to 60
- 1:35:36ft of us and we never made it to
- 1:35:38Tourett. Um, but Costan is again a
- 1:35:42medium-sized town along a river, uh, has
- 1:35:44a railway, bunch of schools, like it's a
- 1:35:47it's a distinctly urban industrial area.
- 1:35:51And obviously, it is now the heart of a
- 1:35:53war zone. Um, you can see here, this is
- 1:35:56a Russian Molina. This is a Russian
- 1:35:58strike drone that obviously was trying
- 1:35:59to hit something and failed. It looks
- 1:36:02like it's actually been stripped of its
- 1:36:03warhead. Um, probably just as a safety
- 1:36:06precaution, right? be you know [snorts]
- 1:36:09you don't want to be underneath it when
- 1:36:10that warhead goes off but yeah this is I
- 1:36:14mean this is this is Costan I think I've
- 1:36:16actually been like here
- 1:36:23there's a fiber optic drone you can see
- 1:36:24it spooling out you can see these guys
- 1:36:26engaging it uh this is what's
- 1:36:28interesting right for a while they were
- 1:36:30having people shoot down um uh fiber
- 1:36:33optic drones with shotguns and they
- 1:36:35actually found that these shotguns while
- 1:36:36really effective were so short range
- 1:36:38that they would detonate them um too
- 1:36:40close to the actual operator and we're
- 1:36:42hurting a lot of operators
- 1:36:46>> there. Damn it. Got him.
- 1:36:49>> Okay, so again, this is autodubbed. The
- 1:36:53autodubbing kit's kind of weird, but
- 1:36:55we're still going to give it a listen.
- 1:36:57We got on tape.
- 1:37:03And what about the drone?
- 1:37:14No, stop.
- 1:37:17>> Civilian.
- 1:37:30So again, this is
- 1:37:32okay.
- 1:37:38So, I want to point out that you may be
- 1:37:40noticing it's pretty rainy, it's pretty
- 1:37:43wet. This is actually great conditions
- 1:37:46to uh conduct a rotation to move troops
- 1:37:49in and out of position because in poor
- 1:37:52weather, drones are much harder to fly.
- 1:37:56So, there are fewer Ukrainian drones in
- 1:37:58the air, which is beneficial for
- 1:38:00Russians, but there's also fewer Russian
- 1:38:01drones in the air, which can help
- 1:38:03Ukrainians.
- 1:38:07>> Well, we just shot down.
- 1:38:09>> Yes. Nice job.
- 1:38:13>> I'm filming.
- 1:38:15[music] Also
- 1:38:16want to point out, this is one of the
- 1:38:17things that I was told uh when I was
- 1:38:19there last year uh when we were going
- 1:38:21towards uh uh one of the the forward
- 1:38:23company positions. Uh they were like,
- 1:38:25"Don't put on your seat belt because if
- 1:38:27a drone starts to approach the vehicle
- 1:38:29or we see an ambush drone, um you're
- 1:38:32going to want to ditch the vehicle as
- 1:38:33fast as possible and that seat belt is
- 1:38:35going to impede you from doing that."
- 1:38:41>> And the bomber and you have
- 1:38:45above me.
- 1:38:49Listen, you can actually hear it.
- 1:38:57>> Take that.
- 1:38:59Got it. Okay. That's a really unique
- 1:39:01looking weapon.
- 1:39:05The situation varies. Some days are
- 1:39:07tense, some are calm. Well, it all
- 1:39:09depends on the weather. The weather is
- 1:39:11clear. Like now the activity is high.
- 1:39:14Generally in the morning and evening the
- 1:39:16activity is very high. For example at
- 1:39:18the disposition we fire over a,000
- 1:39:21[snorts] rounds a day. Well each of us
- 1:39:24fires about 350 rounds.
- 1:39:27Now the
- 1:39:28>> now that is crazy because not just think
- 1:39:30about this for a minute. One position
- 1:39:321,000 rounds a day. What does that mean?
- 1:39:34That means that the Ukrainians have to
- 1:39:36find a way to resupply that position
- 1:39:39with not just the food, not just the
- 1:39:41water, not just the medical supplies,
- 1:39:43but also 1,000 rounds every single day
- 1:39:47at least. And you realize you're like
- 1:39:50that's a huge logistic burden to
- 1:39:52resupply again one position of the tens
- 1:39:56of thousands of positions throughout the
- 1:39:58front line
- 1:39:59>> has
- 1:39:59>> you start to realize the scale of this
- 1:40:01war
- 1:40:02>> decreased a bit back in winter before
- 1:40:05New Year's it was very active
- 1:40:11[music]
- 1:40:12and by the way this video is from
- 1:40:16one month ago.
- 1:40:17Okay. So again, assume it was probably
- 1:40:20recorded maybe two or three months ago.
- 1:40:34Okay, I want to point out that also like
- 1:40:38one of the things that I learned in
- 1:40:40Ukraine is that
- 1:40:43um people have a their risk tolerance is
- 1:40:47crazy, right? Two guys, two soldiers
- 1:40:50body armored up, you know, filming,
- 1:40:53sure, uh no no no shade, film
- 1:40:56everything. both both people love
- 1:40:58filming to get their cool moments, but
- 1:41:00also um for
- 1:41:03uh reconnaissance purposes because you
- 1:41:05have to think that somebody might ask
- 1:41:06you, "Hey, where did you see that
- 1:41:08drone?" or "What kind of drone was it?"
- 1:41:09And you might just It's one thing to
- 1:41:12say, "Ah," they'll say, "Oh, well, I it
- 1:41:14was like one of the big ones or
- 1:41:15whatever." That doesn't help. But if you
- 1:41:17say, "I have HD footage of the drone."
- 1:41:19Now you're talking. Now you can give
- 1:41:21your intelligence something good. But as
- 1:41:22you can see, this is just some guy. And
- 1:41:24there's a lot of civilians that just
- 1:41:26don't leave these towns. Some of them,
- 1:41:28the rumor is that it's because they're
- 1:41:29Russian sympathizers. But I've actually
- 1:41:31heard from other Ukrainians that
- 1:41:34oftentimes people say, "Listen, if I
- 1:41:36abandon my home, then it will be
- 1:41:38regarded as abandoned property and I'll
- 1:41:41lose it." And again, a lot of these
- 1:41:43older folks, they say, "Listen, my home
- 1:41:45is my entire life savings is this house.
- 1:41:48You know, I paid off the mortgage."
- 1:41:50They're like, "If I abandon this house,
- 1:41:51then I've lost the only thing I own."
- 1:41:54And they just like, "I'm not going to
- 1:41:56abandon it."
- 1:41:59>> They tried to destroy our logistics,
- 1:42:01those little boxes, tanks, armored
- 1:42:05personnel, carriers,
- 1:42:07armored vehicles, and so on. Uh,
- 1:42:11I shoot down three or four a day, like
- 1:42:14yesterday. Yesterday, I was slightly
- 1:42:16wounded because I shot down a drone that
- 1:42:17was flying right over me.
- 1:42:20It fell four or five me away from me.
- 1:42:23Well, it's nothing. It was all pulled
- 1:42:24out fine. Our medic pulled it out with a
- 1:42:25knife. Damn, Doug.
- 1:42:29Yes.
- 1:42:30>> Okay, that's wild. I don't know what
- 1:42:32else to tell you.
- 1:42:41[music]
- 1:42:43Okay. So, that looks like actually a
- 1:42:45drone detector. So what I think it is,
- 1:42:47it is programmed to receive or or sort
- 1:42:50of observe frequencies the Russians are
- 1:42:52known to use and it will beep when it
- 1:42:54detects that that frequency is
- 1:42:56transmitting. Now obviously a fiber
- 1:42:57optic cable doesn't transmit anything
- 1:42:59over the air. There's nothing to detect.
- 1:43:01But other drones, Mavix particularly or
- 1:43:05um uh conventional FPV strike drones,
- 1:43:08this will start beeping pretty
- 1:43:10ominously. Again, if I'll try to maybe
- 1:43:12put in the video of of the my 2024
- 1:43:14video. Um, and you can hear the drone
- 1:43:17detector in that video when we're in
- 1:43:18Costa. You can hear it going off. It's
- 1:43:20just like beep beep beep. And when you
- 1:43:23know that there's a drone chasing you,
- 1:43:25it's really ominous.
- 1:43:28>> I don't want to carry it. I want Ah,
- 1:43:30let's put on the back. Let it beep
- 1:43:32behind me.
- 1:43:36>> That's the beep.
- 1:43:37>> Cool.
- 1:43:38>> On the back.
- 1:43:38>> Cool. That's it. Someone will walk
- 1:43:41behind and watch.
- 1:43:46>> Good day. How are things with you?
- 1:43:49>> This is peak Ukrainian soldier energy.
- 1:43:51You may be like, "Man, that dude doesn't
- 1:43:53look like a soldier at all." Listen,
- 1:43:54there are a ton of units that are like
- 1:43:56this. They're And and this is one of the
- 1:43:58things I find really unique about the
- 1:44:00Ukrainian military because their draft
- 1:44:02age doesn't start until 27. You get
- 1:44:05these older folks. And what's also
- 1:44:08unique is that older guys
- 1:44:11generally
- 1:44:14they're not going to behave like
- 1:44:1518-year-olds. 18-year-olds are
- 1:44:20dumb, impulsive. They don't think things
- 1:44:22through. And that's not a dig, right? I
- 1:44:24was 18 once. I was also dumb. And
- 1:44:29the
- 1:44:31but like
- 1:44:34you have to in the military, right? The
- 1:44:36whole military hierarchy is meant to get
- 1:44:3818-year-olds to do the [ __ ] you tell
- 1:44:40them and not dick it dick up everything.
- 1:44:43It it's and you have to be so it's like
- 1:44:46babysitting. People always say, "Oh,
- 1:44:48it's like babysitting." Older Ukrainians
- 1:44:51that have been out, they've been around
- 1:44:52the block, they've worked regular jobs.
- 1:44:55A lot of times those guys don't require
- 1:44:58the same level of babysitting. They
- 1:44:59require nothing close to the same level
- 1:45:01of babysitting. And that means that you
- 1:45:03don't have to sit there and be like,
- 1:45:05"Where's your [ __ ] uniform, soldier?"
- 1:45:06He goes, "Listen, dude. I got my helmet
- 1:45:08on. I got my my kit. I got my rifle. I
- 1:45:13got my tourniquet." Like, like, you go,
- 1:45:14"Fine, dude. It's it's it's Bill, right?
- 1:45:19Like, as an adult, right, your work has
- 1:45:23to make sure you're dressed
- 1:45:23professionally, but like you're not
- 1:45:26checking to make sure you're brushing
- 1:45:28your teeth. your work goes, listen, I
- 1:45:30don't need to tell you to brush your
- 1:45:31teeth because you're a grown man. Well,
- 1:45:33when you have a army of grown men, you
- 1:45:36just don't have to tell them as much and
- 1:45:37you don't have to be a jerk to them as
- 1:45:38much. You don't have to like this. The
- 1:45:40amount of screaming at teenagers that
- 1:45:43happens in the US military by by grown
- 1:45:45men is like really kind of unhinged. And
- 1:45:50uh I've just never seen that sort of
- 1:45:52[ __ ] in the Ukrainian military. Like
- 1:45:53full stop.
- 1:45:54>> Greetings.
- 1:45:57>> They're flying a lot. Very much so.
- 1:45:59>> Yeah. Today very very much.
- 1:46:01>> Today it's intense
- 1:46:11here. Damn it.
- 1:46:14Got him.
- 1:46:16This is wild. By the way,
- 1:46:19>> I got it on tape, too.
- 1:46:24See, there was somebody with a shotgun.
- 1:46:28Can you tell if anything has flown into
- 1:46:30the gun or is sitting there? The
- 1:46:32>> guys have already arrived. An ambulance.
- 1:46:38>> Okay, it almost Okay, also more unhinged
- 1:46:41[ __ ] There's all these guys out here.
- 1:46:44There's a there's a literal tank.
- 1:46:45There's a bunch of drones and then just
- 1:46:46some dude cruising by in his lada.
- 1:46:49>> They are digging.
- 1:46:52>> People usually they leave often fly by
- 1:46:55here. Or is it getting less and less?
- 1:46:58>> Very often.
- 1:47:16There's a corpse on the right and
- 1:47:19a civilian.
- 1:47:22It's a civilian corpse.
- 1:47:31Copy.
- 1:47:39Whoa.
- 1:47:42Again, not not hard to figure out what
- 1:47:44happened to that van.
- 1:47:47You can literally see all burnt out.
- 1:47:49Something threw right through the
- 1:47:51window. Still rolls, which is crazy.
- 1:47:53But I I point this out because again,
- 1:47:56just everything in these areas is
- 1:47:57treated as a target.
- 1:48:03[cheering] Look, it went in like this.
- 1:48:04Punch an opening.
- 1:48:09>> Are we going to look see who this is or
- 1:48:14check the documents?
- 1:48:18We're not sorry. There are documents.
- 1:48:30>> But also worth noting, look around this
- 1:48:32civilian. There's all these shotgun
- 1:48:34shells. Like somebody was trying to
- 1:48:36shoot it down with a shotgun.
- 1:48:49Again,
- 1:48:51UGV ground drone probably trying to
- 1:48:53deliver supplies or conduct a Kazvak
- 1:48:55taken out. You got to understand that
- 1:48:57when you talk about a war of attrition,
- 1:48:58this is what you're talking about.
- 1:49:00Vehicles, everything just has a lifespan
- 1:49:03and you're just your goal is to keep the
- 1:49:07loss, minimize your loss rate and
- 1:49:09maximize the enemy's loss rate.
- 1:49:22Right.
- 1:49:23>> Could it be something worse?
- 1:49:25>> And what unit are you from?
- 1:49:26>> 100.
- 1:49:27>> Are you on rotation?
- 1:49:29>> We were escorting a thing like that. The
- 1:49:31one they damn it.
- 1:49:32>> It didn't make it.
- 1:49:33>> It didn't make it about 600 m that way.
- 1:49:36In short, there is nothing.
- 1:49:40Always interesting to see them do these
- 1:49:42escorts. I'm not really sure why, but
- 1:49:43you can see this thing's loaded up with
- 1:49:44supplies. And probably because of the
- 1:49:46rain, it's probably taped up all over.
- 1:50:02Okay. It's funny because there's a
- 1:50:04little bit of a delay with the operator.
- 1:50:06So, the operator's probably trying to
- 1:50:07avoid the dog, not realizing that the
- 1:50:08dog is already out of the way. Oh, wow.
- 1:50:11COME HERE.
- 1:50:16OKAY, one of the things that's really
- 1:50:17interesting to me is that it's almost
- 1:50:18like these guys are like defending the
- 1:50:20road. I think these guys literally are
- 1:50:21like an air defense crew that just pops
- 1:50:23out, takes out these drones to keep the
- 1:50:25road open.
- 1:50:27That's crazy. I've I've never heard of
- 1:50:29that, but that's wild.
- 1:50:36>> Plus copied.
- 1:50:39See a cab site probably.
- 1:50:47Damn. Looks like a map. Impossible. What
- 1:50:50kind of Americ fiber?
- 1:50:51>> Damn it. Well, it means it's covered in
- 1:50:53some plastic.
- 1:50:58>> No way. What kind of people could be
- 1:50:59there? No windows.
- 1:51:02>> I guess they're saying maybe that they
- 1:51:04think there's someone in there because
- 1:51:05somebody's patching up the windows.
- 1:51:06They're like, "Oh, somebody's in there
- 1:51:07patching up the windows. Who's living
- 1:51:09there?
- 1:51:13>> It's smoking now.
- 1:51:15>> Oh, no. No. It was a down fiber optic
- 1:51:17and they just want to make sure it stays
- 1:51:18down cuz remember a key Russian strategy
- 1:51:21here is actually ambush drones. So,
- 1:51:22they'll plant a drone somewhere and they
- 1:51:24will have it wait in a low power mode
- 1:51:26sometimes for hours or even days waiting
- 1:51:29for a target to pass and then it will
- 1:51:32activate and strike. Um, and that's
- 1:51:34really key for fiber optics because the
- 1:51:36fiber optic cable is really heavy. And
- 1:51:38so the drone has less battery life. So
- 1:51:41it's much easier to just have it camp.
- 1:51:43Uh, just like camping in a video game,
- 1:51:45right? You want to camp a key route and
- 1:51:47you just sit there and just watch and
- 1:51:49don't spring into action until you see
- 1:51:51an enemy.
- 1:51:53>> Humming. Wait.
- 1:51:58>> It's far away.
- 1:52:01Oh, holy.
- 1:52:03>> And what are you doing here?
- 1:52:05>> Damn it. And isn't it high time to off?
- 1:52:08Damn it.
- 1:52:09>> Where to off to? Where to go?
- 1:52:13>> Somewhere to Duskfka. At least
- 1:52:17there are plenty of empty houses in Dka.
- 1:52:19At least move there.
- 1:52:22>> Maybe it's not being shad.
- 1:52:31come into the house.
- 1:52:32>> There's a guy just chilling, just being
- 1:52:34like I mean, look at this. This is crazy
- 1:52:37cuz look,
- 1:52:41look at this guy. Look at this random
- 1:52:42dude
- 1:52:44one. I mean, this guy looks like kind of
- 1:52:47a drunk or somebody who's just hiding
- 1:52:49out
- 1:52:51coming to the house.
- 1:52:57Jesus.
- 1:53:01Let's see. Number two.
- 1:53:07Been on duty for 4 hours.
- 1:53:32Just a reminder of how cheap these
- 1:53:34drones are, right? Just just piece of
- 1:53:35aluminum pipe. I mean, you can buy that
- 1:53:37[ __ ] at Home Depot here in the States.
- 1:53:39And look at this. These wings just like
- 1:53:41just like cheap foam.
- 1:53:45>> What's up?
- 1:53:47>> FPV drone uh wings.
- 1:53:52Another one. I want to point out
- 1:53:53interesting. This guy doesn't look like
- 1:53:55there's rifle plates. And that just
- 1:53:56makes sense because if the threat here,
- 1:53:58if their mission is shooting down
- 1:53:59drones, drones are an explosive weapon.
- 1:54:01They project out shrapnel. So, you want
- 1:54:03to com like the best armor is the one
- 1:54:05you're going to wear. And the
- 1:54:10the
- 1:54:12comfort and lightweight of just soft
- 1:54:14Kevlar armor that provides you
- 1:54:16protection against the threats that you
- 1:54:18face is probably what you want. And and
- 1:54:20that's something that like also kind of
- 1:54:23has been a a pet peeve of mine for a
- 1:54:25long time is that as a as a soldier, you
- 1:54:27can't prepare for every threat, right?
- 1:54:30You can't even prepare for every
- 1:54:31possible threat. You have to prepare for
- 1:54:33the likely threats, right? And so you
- 1:54:36look at what the likely threats are in
- 1:54:37your AO and you build your your plans
- 1:54:41around those. And so you say, "Listen,
- 1:54:43the odds of us being in a gunfight are
- 1:54:45super low." So this guy probably says,
- 1:54:47"Listen, this is what I want. I'm going
- 1:54:48to buy my own soft Kevlar armor and I'm
- 1:54:51going to wear that much more frequently.
- 1:54:53>> Another one.
- 1:54:55>> Right.
- 1:54:59>> Three.
- 1:55:02>> It's a Russian cab. A 500 pounder.
- 1:55:13[music]
- 1:55:15>> Good day to you.
- 1:55:17>> Good day. Not planning [music] to leave.
- 1:55:19>> No. Where to?
- 1:55:21>> Where to? And why? Here we have at least
- 1:55:24something. But if we leave, then what?
- 1:55:28>> Live on 2,000.
- 1:55:30And here we still live like human
- 1:55:32beings. We have
- 1:55:34>> uh Okay.
- 1:55:35>> Enough food.
- 1:55:37>> The boy.
- 1:55:38>> You live like human beings, dude. You
- 1:55:40have enough food. Oh my god. You're in a
- 1:55:41war zone.
- 1:55:42>> Police are great. They help out and
- 1:55:45sometimes they take people out. They
- 1:55:47pick him up. Well, it's a risk. He who
- 1:55:50dares wins.
- 1:55:52>> So, we will [music] live, not just
- 1:55:56exist.
- 1:55:57Let's go.
- 1:56:05[music]
- 1:56:07Jesus Christ, people are crazy, dude.
- 1:56:15>> [music]
- 1:56:17>> You can see here, it looks like the
- 1:56:19drone struck. You can see the the the
- 1:56:22cage actually was pretty effective, but
- 1:56:24the drones basically targeted the tires.
- 1:56:26It looks like targeted the tires. Looks
- 1:56:28like maybe from the tire, it just kind
- 1:56:30of burned through to the um engine and
- 1:56:34then burned kind of underneath the
- 1:56:35fuselage, burned it all out
- 1:56:38because I think once they disable the
- 1:56:39vehicle, then they'll do repeated
- 1:56:41strikes. But what's important and this
- 1:56:43is the M8. This is the M wrap. The M
- 1:56:45wraps were not meant to be the M wraps
- 1:56:48themselves were not meant to survive.
- 1:56:50The MRAPs were meant to protect the
- 1:56:53crew. So the crew the M wrap exists to
- 1:56:56protect the crew from being destroyed.
- 1:56:59[music]
- 1:57:02And let's take a look.
- 1:57:10[music] So again, the the the actual
- 1:57:12crew cab looks pretty intact. And so I
- 1:57:15suspect that the crew probably got out
- 1:57:17here. Okay. Got out of here in one
- 1:57:18piece.
- 1:57:24[music]
- 1:57:26Again, looks like someone's helmet, but
- 1:57:30yeah, hard to say. I mean, the helmet
- 1:57:31looks intact. Obviously, some shrapnel.
- 1:57:34Where whoever was the wearer of this?
- 1:57:36It's hard to say. It's hard to say. that
- 1:57:38that part right there that's pretty
- 1:57:40close to the brow. So I don't know
- 1:57:46[music]
- 1:57:54>> they're from the outskirts
- 1:57:56>> from Costantin
- 1:57:58>> from Cona. It's being hit terribly in
- 1:58:01Costa.
- 1:58:02>> It's hitting hard. Houses are burning.
- 1:58:06Let me be
- 1:58:07>> houses are burning.
- 1:58:08>> Explosions everywhere.
- 1:58:10>> Right.
- 1:58:12There is nothing
- 1:58:15>> left there. We took our bikes and left
- 1:58:18at our own risk.
- 1:58:21>> Damn.
- 1:58:22You know, I always I always tell my
- 1:58:26prepper friends, it's like, listen,
- 1:58:28dude. You know who gets out of war zones
- 1:58:29first? Rich people. Do you know who gets
- 1:58:32out of war zones last? Poor people. And
- 1:58:35like they said, these guys didn't have a
- 1:58:37car. They took their possessions. They
- 1:58:40took what they could carry on their
- 1:58:41bikes and they biked out.
- 1:58:42>> This is all we managed to bring,
- 1:58:46>> right? All we managed to bring. And
- 1:58:48these guys, like, you think they have a
- 1:58:50big old fat bank account? You think they
- 1:58:52got a bunch of investments sitting
- 1:58:54around? No. Like it's a reminder of just
- 1:58:58like in a crisis
- 1:59:01having resources and the ability to
- 1:59:04access those resources
- 1:59:06quickly and to be able to spend your way
- 1:59:08to safety is the ultimate preper move.
- 1:59:12And you see it here, right? You got to
- 1:59:15bike out with a car and your plastic
- 1:59:17bags.
- 1:59:19>> My mom's house burned down. The other
- 1:59:21mom's house burned down.
- 1:59:24How about half destroyed?
- 1:59:25>> Our house burned halfway down. It
- 1:59:28happened a week ago.
- 1:59:31Our son died. Our only child.
- 1:59:35He looked after us. Rode his bike to the
- 1:59:39store.
- 1:59:41It's been 5 months since we buried him
- 1:59:43under the apple tree.
- 1:59:48>> Okay, we shouldn't stand here.
- 1:59:50>> That's for us. It's from over there.
- 1:59:53That's for us.
- 1:59:54>> Yeah, it's for us.
- 2:00:10>> Boom.
- 2:00:15>> Take cover you guys, too. A
- 2:00:22I want to have their level of chill. I
- 2:00:24want to I want whatever whatever lets
- 2:00:26them just like not feel fear where
- 2:00:28they're just like get down drone and
- 2:00:31then then it blows up and they're like
- 2:00:33take cover and they're like
- 2:00:37I mean I mean actually this is the most
- 2:00:38common sense thing they have is an
- 2:00:39electrolyte drink cuz listen if you're
- 2:00:41going to bike for 20 kilometers and
- 2:00:43you're in your 50s or 60s bring bring
- 2:00:47some hydration. Yeah.
- 2:01:03>> Keep your heads down.
- 2:01:07>> Wishing you well. All the best. Our guys
- 2:01:08are further on.
- 2:01:12>> Oh, lightning struck right into that
- 2:01:14thing.
- 2:01:15>> Clash the cops again.
- 2:01:18It's starting again.
- 2:01:23>> It was flying around recently. You know,
- 2:01:26been 21 22.
- 2:01:33>> Are you used to such conditions?
- 2:01:35>> It's a resort compared to there.
- 2:01:39>> Did you transfer?
- 2:01:40>> Yes.
- 2:01:41>> No, I was awall. After being a wall, I
- 2:01:46The 24th got me. I was still on
- 2:01:48crutches.
- 2:01:49They patched.
- 2:01:51My first vacation is coming up. Do you
- 2:01:54have any plans for your vacation yet?
- 2:01:56There's so much to do. Wife, kids,
- 2:01:59the unexplored Carpathians. Well, of
- 2:02:01course, 14 days is not much, but at
- 2:02:04least to get away for a week, the rest
- 2:02:06of just silence with the children,
- 2:02:08family. It's just
- 2:02:10>> Yeah, that's one of the things. So, it's
- 2:02:12really interesting. Ukraine has a huge
- 2:02:14campaign to bring back soldiers who went
- 2:02:16awall because a lot of them, you know,
- 2:02:17signed up in 2022, but they go, "Hey,
- 2:02:19man. I've been fighting continuously for
- 2:02:213 years. How is there not rotation?" And
- 2:02:24a lot of them go AWOL. Also, a lot of
- 2:02:26them go AWOL because their commanders
- 2:02:29are corrupt, because their commanders
- 2:02:31send them on missions where they don't
- 2:02:32feel like they
- 2:02:34can have any chance of returning. Um,
- 2:02:38and so a lot of units will actually
- 2:02:41recruit and they'll say, "Listen, if you
- 2:02:42went awall," and this is one of the
- 2:02:44conundrums. They'll say, "Listen, if you
- 2:02:46went awall, we'll bring you back." And
- 2:02:4924th classic, this looks like a classic
- 2:02:51example where he's like when he's like,
- 2:02:54"Oh, this is like paradise compared to
- 2:02:55before." Probably because he's like,
- 2:02:57"Listen, I'm I'm I'm keeping this road
- 2:02:59open, shooting down drones. Supplies are
- 2:03:02way easier to get to here." um you know
- 2:03:06and he probably it's I would hypothesize
- 2:03:09that the 24th was like listen if you're
- 2:03:10AWOL we got these spots they're they're
- 2:03:14with a rear air they're a a
- 2:03:16comparatively safe unit right a sort of
- 2:03:18a localized air defense unit keeping
- 2:03:20this road open and he said fine I'll
- 2:03:23come back here right
- 2:03:25um
- 2:03:28yeah
- 2:03:31and so I but the one of the conundrums
- 2:03:33is that other guys are like, you know,
- 2:03:37are like, "Hey, I never win awall and I
- 2:03:39don't get the opportunity to be
- 2:03:40reassigned to a chill gig." Like, what
- 2:03:43what gives, you know? And that's one of
- 2:03:45the big conundrums is like guys will
- 2:03:47often get they'll feel like awall
- 2:03:50soldiers are getting rewarded with
- 2:03:52better positions than guys who just
- 2:03:55stayed and fought and said yes to
- 2:03:57everything.
- 2:03:59>> What's missing?
- 2:04:01>> It's not even that. It's just wanting
- 2:04:02that peace to be with the family.
- 2:04:06>> That's what's lacking. It starts in the
- 2:04:09morning. Dad, I'm hungry. Dad, what are
- 2:04:11we going to do?
- 2:04:17Yeah, that's that's being a parent. All
- 2:04:19right.
- 2:04:36And my trust is gone.
- 2:04:47See,
- 2:04:50this is what they fire from const.
- 2:04:52>> So, how do you distinguish friend from
- 2:04:53foe?
- 2:04:55>> Well, if it's flying from over there,
- 2:04:56it's ours. And if it's from over there,
- 2:04:58it's clear it's not ours.
- 2:05:01>> Yeah, that's actually how it works.
- 2:05:04Also, sometimes guys will know where
- 2:05:06their drone units are positioned and
- 2:05:08they'll say, "Okay, like I know like
- 2:05:12they'll say, "Okay, well, I know that
- 2:05:14our drone units are forward of us." And
- 2:05:16so any drone that's rear of us, like
- 2:05:18nobody's doing reconnaissance behind
- 2:05:20you, you know?
- 2:05:28That's hostile. That's our own.
- 2:05:31>> Yeah. Whatever burns will go down.
- 2:05:34>> Yeah. I also feel like there versus
- 2:05:37there as a like they probably just shoot
- 2:05:39down a lot of their own drones.
- 2:05:41>> He kind of gave him a bit of shell shock
- 2:05:44a little. It fell somewhere nearby.
- 2:05:47>> Yeah. I got hit a little bit here. Here.
- 2:05:49I took it on the chest. Only managed to
- 2:05:51move my legs. It pecked at me a bit. hit
- 2:05:54my thigh one time.
- 2:05:57And here you can see the holes left in
- 2:06:00my jacket right through the neck. The
- 2:06:02armor was ripped. This is already at the
- 2:06:04point. I was just by your guys over
- 2:06:06there. It is this some police car.
- 2:06:09>> No, this is a mech infantry vehicle.
- 2:06:11>> And are you a mech infantryman?
- 2:06:12>> Well, it turns out by position. I have a
- 2:06:14mech infantry position.
- 2:06:17[laughter]
- 2:06:18>> Yeah, a mech infantry. I'm in a mech
- 2:06:19infantry unit. Look at me. Don't I look
- 2:06:22like mech infantry? This is also
- 2:06:23classic. Okay, this is one of the
- 2:06:25reasons why people are like, "You were
- 2:06:27an MP. You weren't in combat." I'm like,
- 2:06:30"Buddy, buddy, in Afghanistan during the
- 2:06:33surge, if you had every unit was being
- 2:06:36reassigned to combat roles, to battle
- 2:06:39space ownership roles like artillerymen,
- 2:06:42I saw artillery units be like, "You
- 2:06:44don't run artillery anymore. Here's six
- 2:06:46MRAPs prepare to patrol, right? Cav
- 2:06:49units, engineer units." Right? Our
- 2:06:51sister unit was a bunch of engineers.
- 2:06:53They were and they were just like,
- 2:06:54"Listen, your job battle space owner.
- 2:06:56Buckle up, nerds." So yeah, he's like,
- 2:06:58"Ah, mech infantry air defense now."
- 2:07:00>> Me course 320 lightning.
- 2:07:02>> It might turn towards you, but you need
- 2:07:04to hide.
- 2:07:11>> There is There is either a dugout or a
- 2:07:15shelter. We'll find something
- 2:07:17interesting. I don't know what the day
- 2:07:19or date is. Damn it. You keep track by
- 2:07:21cigarettes, you take for yourself, damn.
- 2:07:22A pack a day, but for 30 days, they have
- 2:07:2440 packs. Damn.
- 2:07:26>> And how many do you have now?
- 2:07:27>> 23 packs left. [laughter]
- 2:07:30>> So that's three solid weeks more. Do you
- 2:07:32know that if you live here more than a a
- 2:07:34year, they might register you? They
- 2:07:36might register you.
- 2:07:38>> Oh, no. Thank you. No, I'm doing just
- 2:07:40fine in the Curville Corp region.
- 2:07:41[laughter]
- 2:07:44>> Don't need to register me.
- 2:07:47I think they mean like you'll get signed
- 2:07:49up. Anyway, guys, we're going to call it
- 2:07:52right there. Um, again, be sure to make
- 2:07:54sure you're you're subscribed. And if
- 2:07:56you want me to do the other part of
- 2:07:57this, let me know. Uh, and
- 2:08:00yeah, thanks.
- 2:08:02Okay, sorry. I saw a bunch of you guys
- 2:08:04sent me some super chats. Seen the
- 2:08:06chat's been super active. John Mahoney,
- 2:08:08mates, two parents void of emotion.
- 2:08:10Yeah, I imagine burying your only son
- 2:08:12who's care caring for you probably
- 2:08:14leaves you feeling that way. Mr. Mr.
- 2:08:16Bas, thanks for the two. Uh, a lot of
- 2:08:18these older dudes likely served before.
- 2:08:20Yeah, that's a really good point that if
- 2:08:22you were 18 in when the Soviet Union was
- 2:08:25intact, you likely got recruited and did
- 2:08:29some mandatory military training, which
- 2:08:31gives you at least a good amount of
- 2:08:33familiarity with the basics of like
- 2:08:35military operations and military
- 2:08:37culture. So,
- 2:08:40uh,
- 2:08:44actually, huh, I wonder when Ukraine
- 2:08:48stopped mandatory,
- 2:08:50uh,
- 2:08:52inscription
- 2:08:55in the 2000s. I wonder. Okay.
- 2:08:59Uh
- 2:09:02starts at age 25. Part of the ongoing
- 2:09:04mobilization
- 2:09:06history.
- 2:09:08Uh let's see.
- 2:09:11Okay. So actually conscription Ukraine
- 2:09:13continued until 2013 when Yanukovich
- 2:09:16ended conscription. 60% of Ukraine's
- 2:09:18forces were composed of professional
- 2:09:20soldiers. But due war in Donbas,
- 2:09:21conscription and a partial mobilization
- 2:09:22was immediately reinstated. Uk modified
- 2:09:25age group males right.
- 2:09:28uh longer deployment mobile service into
- 2:09:30a combat area was ceased in 2016.
- 2:09:34Um
- 2:09:36so it sounds like basically yeah you're
- 2:09:38right all these guys probably through
- 2:09:402013 would have done some mandatory
- 2:09:42military service.
- 2:09:55Yeah, people love cigarettes, dude. I
- 2:09:57see you guys.
- 2:10:13That's funny. I see all you guys from I
- 2:10:16see a bunch of people chatting now
- 2:10:18having just tuned in and picking up the
- 2:10:20like conspiracy part of this the the
- 2:10:21stream. Um yeah, we move we move past
- 2:10:25it. We were just kind of I was waiting
- 2:10:26for the gum to kick in.
- 2:10:35All right, guys. I'm going to get out of
- 2:10:36here. Uh I got a bunch of stuff I got to
- 2:10:38take care of. Uh thumbnails and and and
- 2:10:40the like. Um but if you guys like that,
- 2:10:42right, let me know. You can always let
- 2:10:43me know in the comments. Um and uh I'm
- 2:10:47going to catch you guys
- 2:10:49mñana, I think. All right, peace out.
- 2:10:53Cheers.