Latest / Racers Odds / Chicagoland: Who Wins In Windy City
Transcript
- 0:05SPEAKER_00: Welcome to Racer's Odds.
- 0:07SPEAKER_00: I'm David Stiles.
- 0:08SPEAKER_00: He's Andrew Curland, and Shane Van Gisbergen continues to make history.
- 0:13SPEAKER_00: It's the first time that we've had a driver completely sweep a weekend at Setoma when he won in the O'Reilly race.
- 0:20SPEAKER_00: And then he was had his boots shaken there at the end of the Cup Series race as Chase Briscoe was charging hard, but SVG able to hold off the field and claim seven out of the last nine road courses for his own.
- 0:35SPEAKER_00: And he ties Tony Stewart with eight road course wins overall in his career.
- 0:40SPEAKER_00: And he's only got one more to go to tie Jeff Gordon.
- 0:42SPEAKER_00: So another great run for the Kiwi of Shane Van Gisbergen.
- 0:46SPEAKER_00: Andrew, you were boots on the ground in Sonoma.
- 0:48SPEAKER_00: First time that you've called a race at that racetrack.
- 0:51SPEAKER_00: What were your impressions just coming out of that weekend?
- 0:53SPEAKER_01: SVG, yeah, he was certainly the guy to beat.
- 0:58SPEAKER_01: You could just tell his raw speed was there.
- 1:01SPEAKER_01: Um really the field's best strategy was to try to short pit him one lap and try to get a little bit of a tire advantage on him.
- 1:10SPEAKER_01: I was covering Connor Zilich.
- 1:12SPEAKER_01: That was their strategy, and it didn't end up working out for him because he stalled it, trying to leave on pit road.
- 1:17SPEAKER_01: Any of that time he would have gained, he would have lost.
- 1:19SPEAKER_01: But um yeah, I mean it it again was the SVG's weekend to lose.
- 1:27SPEAKER_01: Chase Briscoe had that sentiment after the race when he talked to Heather DeBoe and was like, you know, I was so close to finally beating him here.
- 1:36SPEAKER_01: And that one's gonna sting just because he knows what it means to beat SVG at his own craft.
- 1:42SPEAKER_01: So uh overall it was a great weekend.
- 1:45SPEAKER_01: Sonoma's uh really cool track, and I'll be headed to Chicagoland, which is where I attended my first NASCAR race.
- 1:51SPEAKER_01: It's where I fell in love with NASCAR, so I'm I'm really excited about this weekend too.
- 1:55SPEAKER_00: And that's what I was gonna transition into.
- 1:57SPEAKER_00: We're back at Chicagoland for the first time in a couple of years.
- 2:01SPEAKER_00: How excited are you?
- 2:02SPEAKER_00: I know you're gonna be up there for the weekend.
- 2:04SPEAKER_00: What are you expecting to see once you get up to this racetrack?
- 2:09SPEAKER_01: A lot of worn-out surface, a lot of wear and tear uh specifically.
- 2:14SPEAKER_01: And it's more than first time in a couple of years.
- 2:17SPEAKER_01: Um, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, they weren't champions back when we last raced at Chicagoland.
- 2:25SPEAKER_01: Joe Lugano had one championship.
- 2:27SPEAKER_01: Trek House Racing didn't even exist.
- 2:30SPEAKER_01: Um there's a list of drivers who have never even raced at Chicago in the Cup Series.
- 2:37SPEAKER_01: So I expect a lot of unknowns, but I still think there is an advantage to knowing this racetrack and having experience at this racetrack.
- 2:48SPEAKER_01: And so that's kind of who I'm targeting when it comes to looking at some of these guys.
- 2:53SPEAKER_01: But um there were drivers that came out of the tire test and they said it's really bumpy, it's a rough course.
- 3:00SPEAKER_01: Now, that could also be the next gen and the underbody of this race car being the way it is.
- 3:07SPEAKER_01: The last time we raced here, the underbody didn't look like that.
- 3:10SPEAKER_01: It was the gen 6 car, it had suspension, and so that was the biggest sentiment from people who tire tested at Chicago was wow, this is a rough racing surface.
- 3:22SPEAKER_01: But I think that's good.
- 3:23SPEAKER_01: That should make for exciting racing.
- 3:25SPEAKER_00: I fully agree, and we're in the throes of this in-season challenge.
- 3:30SPEAKER_00: I'll have to give myself a few flowers because I went 13 for 16 in picks.
- 3:34SPEAKER_00: I think that's pretty solid.
- 3:35SPEAKER_00: So uh my bracket still isn't busted.
- 3:38SPEAKER_00: Really, the only thing that I lost was Suarez.
- 3:41SPEAKER_00: I had him in the, you know, the final four.
- 3:44SPEAKER_00: I don't know if we can actually say that, but the four remaining drivers in the bracket challenge, he's the only one that I lost out of that because um, you know, Todd Gillan was able to run a little bit better than Daniel.
- 3:56SPEAKER_00: And then uh I know that you had a big loss because Carson Hosevar beat Zayn Smith.
- 4:00SPEAKER_00: You had Zayn Smith going pretty far in your bracket.
- 4:03SPEAKER_00: But um, yeah, other than that, and then the Briscoe-Amendinger one was kind of the throw-up, and and Chase Briscoe ran really well.
- 4:10SPEAKER_00: So I just want to take the opportunity to say, Chase, sorry, I didn't pick you, but you ran a heck of a race.
- 4:15SPEAKER_00: You've been running really good the last couple of weeks.
- 4:18SPEAKER_00: So I've actually got you lined up in a bet this week, and I'm gonna take Chase Briscoe in one of these matchups.
- 4:24SPEAKER_00: If you go on FanDuel, they give you every single one of these in season tournament tournament matchups, which I've said it for a couple weeks now.
- 4:34SPEAKER_00: This is my bread and butter.
- 4:35SPEAKER_00: I'm finally on the positive side of the bankroll by$32.22.
- 4:41SPEAKER_00: So it's taken me 18 weeks, but I'm finally back on the positive.
- 4:45SPEAKER_00: You've just got to trust me.
- 4:46SPEAKER_00: If you're if you like the kind of bets that I do, you got to trust the math.
- 4:50SPEAKER_00: We'll come back up to the positive at some point.
- 4:52SPEAKER_00: And here we are.
- 4:53SPEAKER_00: We're on the top.
- 4:54SPEAKER_00: So it's not as good as Andrew.
- 4:57SPEAKER_00: He's still 200 plus right now, even though he's had a couple of losses the past couple of weeks.
- 5:02SPEAKER_00: He's still doing really well.
- 5:03SPEAKER_00: But I've I've got a lot on my sheet.
- 5:05SPEAKER_00: We're gonna look at every single one of these matchups.
- 5:07SPEAKER_00: I'm not gonna bet on every single, you know, I'm gonna bet on every single one of them.
- 5:11SPEAKER_00: And then I've got this nasty parlay that you can do if you believe in all the metrics that I put out.
- 5:16SPEAKER_00: But uh a lot of fun with this in-season challenge, and it really works well into my betting strategy.
- 5:22SPEAKER_00: So I'll kick it over to you first, Andrew, to really get your bets on the table to see what you're looking at, and then we'll dive into each one of these matchups.
- 5:30SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, to me, there's been one driver's name who sticks off the page when I'm thinking, okay, this is their chance to win it.
- 5:40SPEAKER_01: And I know I've said it a few times where this is Kyle Larson's weekend to break his windless streak, but I really genuinely believe this is Kyle Larson's weekend to break the windless streak.
- 5:51SPEAKER_01: It's been 42 races since he's last wound up in Victory Lane.
- 5:55SPEAKER_01: And my goodness, was he so good at Chicago before we stopped racing there in 2019?
- 6:02SPEAKER_01: Now, he doesn't have a win to his name there, but he has the best average finish among any driver to have raced there.
- 6:11SPEAKER_01: It's 6.17.
- 6:14SPEAKER_01: That's in six starts.
- 6:15SPEAKER_01: He lost the race twice, really late in the go, once to Alex Bowman in 2019, and then of course, the famous battle he had with Kyle Bush, the slide job race.
- 6:26SPEAKER_01: Uh, that was Kyle Larson who had the lead, just lost it there at the end.
- 6:31SPEAKER_01: This is a track where we're gonna talk about the Kyle Larson lane and running the top groove of the racetrack.
- 6:37SPEAKER_01: And uh he's plus 600 win.
- 6:39SPEAKER_01: I like that a lot.
- 6:40SPEAKER_01: David, you're talking about some matchups.
- 6:42SPEAKER_01: I gotta stick with my bracket here.
- 6:44SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna go and swing for the fences.
- 6:46SPEAKER_01: SVG over Blaney at plus 250 is one that I have.
- 6:51SPEAKER_01: Um, and then I'm gonna take Booty Barker by his word after San Diego.
- 6:58SPEAKER_01: And he said, you know, we could have won Nashville.
- 7:02SPEAKER_01: We felt really good about our San Diego car, and he thinks that Corey Haim and him and the 67 team can win Chicago or at least compete.
- 7:12SPEAKER_01: Corey Haim is plus 6,000 to win in Chicago.
- 7:16SPEAKER_01: Do I think he's gonna win?
- 7:18SPEAKER_01: Probably not, but take him at that and cash out during the race is I think that you do there.
- 7:24SPEAKER_01: Um I like that plan a lot.
- 7:26SPEAKER_01: Corey Haim, so it's it's the type of race where you kind of forget he's in it, and uh that all bit us in San Diego.
- 7:34SPEAKER_00: Well, and those Toyotas have just been so, so strong all season long.
- 7:39SPEAKER_00: The other thing with Kyle Larson, he's led in 12 of the last 13 races on mile and a half tracks.
- 7:45SPEAKER_00: Yeah, he's good.
- 7:47SPEAKER_00: He's the second most laps led of any driver behind Reddick and Denny Hamlin.
- 7:54SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 7:54SPEAKER_00: So other than those two drivers, he's led the most laps of anyone.
- 7:58SPEAKER_00: He's in like 600-ish range, and I know he led a ton of those at Bristol, but he's still Kyle Larson, and I like that bet.
- 8:05SPEAKER_00: I I will I'm gonna put a few units on Kyle Larson at plus 600, too.
- 8:09SPEAKER_00: I think you're right.
- 8:10SPEAKER_00: I think it is that week.
- 8:11SPEAKER_00: You're gonna bet Tyler Reddick again to win because that's the that's been the shtick all year.
- 8:16SPEAKER_00: I have that's also a good bet this week.
- 8:19SPEAKER_00: I think Tyler Reddick to win at Chicagoland is also.
- 8:26SPEAKER_00: I think all three of them.
- 8:28SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 8:29SPEAKER_00: Yes, by a single point.
- 8:30SPEAKER_00: This is the first time that we've had a points leader that's not named Tyler Reddick in 18 weeks, so that which is just absolutely insane.
- 8:39SPEAKER_00: But a lot has happened here in the last couple of weeks that's shaded the season a little bit differently, and it's still a two-car race between those two guys because the point lead is about a hundred between first, second, and third.
- 8:51SPEAKER_00: But I think it's Kyle Larson's week.
- 8:53SPEAKER_00: I agree with that.
- 8:54SPEAKER_00: I think if you put units on Redick and Denny Hamlin, those are smart bets as well.
- 8:58SPEAKER_00: I'm looking at these matchups.
- 9:00SPEAKER_00: The three that I like the most are Alex Bowman versus Austin Cendrick.
- 9:06SPEAKER_00: Alex Bowman's really good at Chicago Land Speedway.
- 9:08SPEAKER_00: He's plus 100 to Austin Cendricks, minus 128.
- 9:13SPEAKER_00: Put a few units on Alex Bowman at plus 100.
- 9:15SPEAKER_00: That's plus money.
- 9:16SPEAKER_00: That's not a bad bet.
- 9:17SPEAKER_00: The other one, Chase Briscoe, Ty Gibbs, they're matched up together.
- 9:21SPEAKER_00: Both of them minus 113.
- 9:23SPEAKER_00: They've both been really competitive.
- 9:25SPEAKER_00: Ty Gibbs is on a hot streak, but so is Chase Briscoe.
- 9:29SPEAKER_00: I think Chase Briscoe has a little bit more of the momentum.
- 9:32SPEAKER_00: I would say put units on him at minus 113.
- 9:35SPEAKER_00: And then I've got to stick to my guns.
- 9:37SPEAKER_00: I think Christopher Bell is going to win this in-season challenge.
- 9:40SPEAKER_00: I'm going to bet Christopher Bell to win that matchup minus 146.
- 9:45SPEAKER_00: Those are the three different bets that I like the most.
- 9:47SPEAKER_00: If you put all three of those in a three-leg parlay, you get some pretty good odds.
- 9:52SPEAKER_00: If you bet five units on it, you'll get$26 back,$27 back.
- 9:57SPEAKER_00: That's about plus$535 if you do that on FanDuel.
- 10:02SPEAKER_00: So that's not a bad bet for a three-leg parlay.
- 10:05SPEAKER_00: I think all three of those will hit.
- 10:07SPEAKER_00: Now, if you go down my bracket and you pick everyone that I picked, and I've I'll have to pick somebody different.
- 10:14SPEAKER_00: So, because of the ones that I lost.
- 10:16SPEAKER_00: So that means I'm going to pick Hosevar.
- 10:18SPEAKER_00: He's minus 670.
- 10:19SPEAKER_00: Then I'll end up picking Briscoe again at minus 113.
- 10:23SPEAKER_00: And then between um what was my what was the other one?
- 10:27SPEAKER_00: I've got Hosevar, I've got Briscoe blanking right now.
- 10:32SPEAKER_00: Bowman?
- 10:33SPEAKER_00: Bowman.
- 10:34SPEAKER_00: Now I've already got Bowman.
- 10:35SPEAKER_00: I had Bowman winning over Tyler Reddick.
- 10:38SPEAKER_00: So I've got him and I've got him in that situation.
- 10:41SPEAKER_00: Anyway, if you take all eight of these, all eight of these matchups and put them in a big parlay together, it's plus$1,906.
- 10:49SPEAKER_00: So if you bet$5 on that, you get$95.35 back or 95 units back.
- 10:58SPEAKER_00: That's a very hairy, long shot parlay.
- 11:02SPEAKER_00: But if if you're like me and you think it could work out, put some coffee money on it, put some soda money on it.
- 11:09SPEAKER_00: It may turn out to be pretty lucrative for you because if I just take every one of these single bets in the matchups, depending on what my bracket is, I'm only going to get back like$38 plus the$70 that I waged if you do$10 bets on each of those.
- 11:23SPEAKER_00: So there's a little bit more juice to squeeze if you do the three-leg parlay and the eight-leg parlay.
- 11:28SPEAKER_00: I don't think the eight-leg parlay is the way to go.
- 11:30SPEAKER_00: That's just, I think that that's too long.
- 11:33SPEAKER_00: I like this three-leg parlay at the plus$500-ish range.
- 11:37SPEAKER_00: If you bet$5 on it, you're going to make some decent money back on it.
- 11:41SPEAKER_00: I know a lot of them are minus odds, but that's just the way that I'm leaning.
- 11:45SPEAKER_00: And so that's really how I'm shorting this race.
- 11:48SPEAKER_00: I'm sticking to these matchups.
- 11:49SPEAKER_00: I'm going to put$10 down on each one of these, and it's going to stay with my bracket.
- 11:54SPEAKER_00: We've already talked about that.
- 11:56SPEAKER_00: And then hopefully I can just stay on the positive side of the bankroll.
- 12:00SPEAKER_00: That's the plan, is to just stay on the positive side.
- 12:03SPEAKER_00: Do I think I'm going to win every single one of these?
- 12:05SPEAKER_00: It's very doubtful.
- 12:07SPEAKER_00: But if I hit on a few of them, at least I get some return.
- 12:10SPEAKER_00: So that's how I'm playing this.
- 12:12SPEAKER_00: We're not swinging for the fences.
- 12:14SPEAKER_00: We're just maintaining our investment and we're trying to grow the bankroll.
- 12:18SPEAKER_00: That's really what my strategy has been all season long.
- 12:21SPEAKER_00: Andrew has been on the picking winners, and it's it's been great for you.
- 12:24SPEAKER_00: I just I'm not good at that.
- 12:26SPEAKER_00: It just doesn't pay off for me.
- 12:28SPEAKER_01: I like picking the winners.
- 12:30SPEAKER_01: That's that's fun.
- 12:31SPEAKER_01: Uh I will say, and and I haven't seen any odds for top ten yet.
- 12:37SPEAKER_01: I know we're a little early to the game this week.
- 12:39SPEAKER_01: You mentioned Alex Bowman.
- 12:41SPEAKER_01: He's going, and I know it's been already since 2019, uh, since we last raced there.
- 12:47SPEAKER_01: He's a defending winner at Chicago, but technically he is still going for four straight top ten finishes at Chicago.
- 12:55SPEAKER_01: The two years prior to his win, he both in both years finished 10th.
- 13:00SPEAKER_01: So Bowman's good there.
- 13:02SPEAKER_01: Um and if there's one track where the numbers at least are on his side, I think it's that one.
- 13:08SPEAKER_01: Does he still have is it the same Alex Bowman as the last time he was there?
- 13:13SPEAKER_01: That's the biggest question mark that I have going into the weekend.
- 13:17SPEAKER_00: Well, it they're on a different strategy than everybody else.
- 13:19SPEAKER_00: I've said it before on this show.
- 13:21SPEAKER_00: I've said it on some of our other shows.
- 13:23SPEAKER_00: They've got to look for wins.
- 13:24SPEAKER_00: They've got to look at anything they can do just to right their ship for their season because they're still mired back in the high 20s in points.
- 13:32SPEAKER_00: So I think Bowman in that matchup at plus 100 is a good bet.
- 13:36SPEAKER_00: I think Bowman to top 10 is a good bet.
- 13:39SPEAKER_00: I don't think he'll win the race, but I have an inclination that he will be a factor at Chicagoland.
- 13:45SPEAKER_00: So, do you have anything else we're going to bet?
- 13:47SPEAKER_00: I've I've kind of laid out my strategy for the weekend.
- 13:50SPEAKER_00: Is there anything else other than I want to say I hit the U.S.
- 13:54SPEAKER_00: getting out of group D in the World Cup?
- 13:56SPEAKER_00: So that was a plus 145 bet.
- 13:58SPEAKER_00: So we hit that.
- 14:00SPEAKER_00: Um yeah, there we go.
- 14:03SPEAKER_01: I've got a bet, um, a standing bet that they make it to the round of 16.
- 14:08SPEAKER_01: So they need to win Wednesday night against Bosnia-Herzegovina, and then I will cash in on that.
- 14:15SPEAKER_01: I just cashed in on Morocco, we'll make it to the round of 16.
- 14:18SPEAKER_01: Um, they had a huge win over the Netherlands the other night.
- 14:24SPEAKER_01: So um doing pretty good in the World Cup department.
- 14:27SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 14:27SPEAKER_01: So I just need to catch up in the race car department.
- 14:29SPEAKER_01: But uh no, David, that's that's pretty much it.
- 14:32SPEAKER_01: I mean, I know it's a little bit of a shorter show, but at the same time, I just don't think we have as many answers to the questions that we have going into it.
- 14:42SPEAKER_01: It's just one of those weekends where you just have to rely on history at the mile and a half.
- 14:46SPEAKER_01: If they have a past history at Chicago, you you base it off of that, and we go from there.
- 14:51SPEAKER_01: But I'll be boots on the ground starting this weekend uh in Joliet, and I really can't wait.
- 14:59SPEAKER_00: Hope you get you a Chicago dog.
- 15:00SPEAKER_00: I know that you're from up there.
- 15:02SPEAKER_00: I love Chicago dogs.
- 15:03SPEAKER_00: Um, let's talk a little bit of pick them real quick.
- 15:05SPEAKER_00: Uh, we haven't updated you on that.
- 15:07SPEAKER_00: This show.
- 15:08SPEAKER_00: Andrew's got a 121-point lead.
- 15:11SPEAKER_00: I got snookered on the SVG strategy.
- 15:16SPEAKER_00: He let me down big time in San Diego.
- 15:19SPEAKER_00: I think only got like like what one or two points.
- 15:23SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 15:23SPEAKER_00: So I got completely snookered.
- 15:26SPEAKER_00: I and last week I had McDowell and Andrew had Shane Van Gisbergen.
- 15:30SPEAKER_00: So I only scored 36 points.
- 15:32SPEAKER_00: So I I don't think I'm gonna be able to come back.
- 15:35SPEAKER_00: We're getting down to the throes of the season.
- 15:37SPEAKER_00: If I do, it's going to be last second heroics.
- 15:40SPEAKER_00: And so for Chicagoland, I'm gonna go with the most winning driver that we have this season.
- 15:47SPEAKER_00: I'm going to pick Tyler Reddick, and he will be off the board for the rest of the year.
- 15:51SPEAKER_00: So I'm gonna shoot a big, I'm gonna shoot one of my bullets and see if it if it pays off for me.
- 15:57SPEAKER_00: So who are you gonna go with this week?
- 16:00SPEAKER_01: Uh my guy can't, I don't think, compete with Tyler Reddick, but I was just talking about him a minute ago.
- 16:05SPEAKER_01: I like Alex Bowman.
- 16:07SPEAKER_01: Um, and this track, if you if you have to pick one driver one time all year, Alex Bowman, the defending winner at Chicagoland's the guy I'm gonna go with.
- 16:18SPEAKER_00: That's a pretty good pick.
- 16:20SPEAKER_00: I had him in Kansas and it it paid off pretty well for me.
- 16:24SPEAKER_00: So he's good at both of those tracks.
- 16:26SPEAKER_00: I think Kansas is his best track statistically, but he's won here at Chicagoland before.
- 16:30SPEAKER_00: That's a really, really good pick.
- 16:32SPEAKER_00: So hopefully you're enjoying this in-season challenge.
- 16:36SPEAKER_00: Hopefully these parlays will pay off for you.
- 16:38SPEAKER_00: Again, I don't recommend doing the eight-leg unless you really want to.
- 16:42SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna put five units on it just because I've got to stay to principle.
- 16:47SPEAKER_00: And if I don't, then I'm gonna look like a chump because it's like, well, why didn't you bet all your matchups?
- 16:51SPEAKER_00: So that's that's what I'm doing.
- 16:53SPEAKER_00: I'm going to do this eight-leg and the three-leg, and then uh 10 units on each one of these matchups and Kyle Larson to win the race.
- 16:59SPEAKER_00: So though those are all my bets for this week.
- 17:01SPEAKER_00: Andrew's doing the same strategy.
- 17:03SPEAKER_00: Denny Hamlin a dollar, Tyler Reddick a dollar, Larson at plus 600, Alex Bowman the top 10.
- 17:08SPEAKER_00: That's kind of a summation of today's bets and show and show.
- 17:12SPEAKER_00: Hope you guys have a great 4th of July.
- 17:14SPEAKER_00: Remember, don't hold firecrackers in your hands.
- 17:17SPEAKER_00: That's that's a bad idea.
- 17:19SPEAKER_00: So don't, don't, don't do that.
- 17:21SPEAKER_00: We need all of our digits on our fingers when we come back after 4th of July.
- 17:25SPEAKER_00: Have a lot of fun.
- 17:26SPEAKER_00: It's about trying to grow your bankroll, injecting a little bit more entertainment into the race each week.
- 17:32SPEAKER_00: And for Racers Odds, I'm David Styles.
- 17:34SPEAKER_00: He's Andrew Curlin.
- 17:35SPEAKER_00: We'll talk again next week.