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SBP 248: The PostPod - Lessons from Jo Lepore, Foresight Doesn’t Get a Free Pass · Sleeping Barber - A Marketing Podcast

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Sleeping Baba podcast.
• 0:03
  SPEAKER_01: We're not measuring brand by a fish's ability to climb a tree.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_01: We're talking about brand in the sense of foresight.
• 0:08
  SPEAKER_01: Like we're creating the future.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_01: So let's talk about that.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_01: We're talking about where are the opportunities for the business to invest in for building the future demand that's going to drive cash flows for the business down the road.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Sleeping Barber Podcast, a place for business leaders to get the best and most credible information on marketing, strategy, and innovation.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: Your hosts, Mark Binkley and Vasilis Turos, share their experiences as they gather insights from the world's leading experts.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_00: Now, on with the show.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_01: Tell me.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_01: Tell me.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_01: What do you think of Foresight?
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_01: This is my Greek impression.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_01: Is that Greek?
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_02: Is that what that is?
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: I guess it could be.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_02: Could be anything.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_02: Could be anything.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, sure.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_02: Time for the postpod.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_02: Forgot to do that, Mark.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_01: That is true.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_01: This is the postpod for Joe Lapor, the conversation about foresight.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_01: And I mean it, it's like as she's describing it, I can see the discipline of what she's talking about.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_01: But I genuinely I don't know anybody that's had that job.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_01: Although there's people that I've seen that do like futurists, and I think that's where I got confused with some of it.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_01: And she clearly called it out that that's not what they do.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_01: And I like the distinction because the futurist side of things is pretty sketchy.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_02: It is.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_02: But I could see how people will just use the same comfort blanket and just kind of wrap it all together or say, like, oh, you should just be part of the insights team.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_02: It doesn't my insights team give me like a look into the future.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_02: And I think that's where I struggled a little bit at the onset before you know she kind of got into the nuances of what you know the discipline actually is, where it helps.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_02: And yeah, but I I know I was pinging you on on the side.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_02: Like, I've never heard of this thing before.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_01: What is yeah, it's voodoo magic.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_01: But I yeah, I genuinely don't think it is.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_01: Like it the discipline of what she described is so practical.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_01: I think absolutely.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_01: And that's where I think you like as I was trying to describe it, there are definitely things that I've seen that look like it and maybe walk like it, and maybe smell like it, but aren't actually the same thing.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_02: Well, okay.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_01: But it's not exactly the same thing.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_01: And um, and I could see it being one of those things where you go, oh, crisis comms.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_01: And that's what I was trying to get to.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_01: With you get if you do a good job in one discipline, you get mislabeled or or typecast kind of thing.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_01: Because then you could get like without the the leadership component of what you intend what you believe foresight can do, it'd be easy for somebody to, as you said, like, that's insights, just join our team, or that's the risk manager, just join our team, or things along those lines, right?
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_01: Totally.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_01: There's so much you could do with Foresight.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_02: There really isn't.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_02: That's where my mind really went to my time at at WestJet in airline, because I know that in that moment the organization was doing what the absolutely the best that they could actually do, just manage the the in-moment scenarios that we saw literally ahead of us, which resulted in a lot of short-termism, if you will, on the way that they approached, which you know, when things started opening up again, then how long did it take for everybody to start ramping up the planes once more?
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_02: Did we potentially lose out on revenue?
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_02: And I wonder where a function like this may have helped because again, the runway was about see what I did there.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, look at you.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_01: Good move, good movie.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_02: I'm so freaking loopy right now.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_02: Anyway, it's like a five to six month window.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_02: So there could have been some groundwork there that could have helped.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_02: Hey, yeah, we've already anticipated this.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_02: This is what we can expect.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_02: Here's what's playing out, here's what you need to think about now, after now that you're in it for six months.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_02: How do you start producing that recovery plan that's going to happen?
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_02: Because inevitably it's going to happen.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_02: So yeah, I think that's where I immediately realized the value of having a sore foresight function.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_02: And she says, like, hey, I don't want to just pick on the pandemic because it's an easy one.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_02: But it's a real one.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_02: It's, it's, it's something that we all experience in different ways, but you can see that why a function like this actually has a lot more value than maybe even me being a skeptic going into the conversation, being like, hey, I I don't know, we're already labeled as you know, the coloring department, or you know, like are they just the magic erasers or something else?
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_01: Like I don't know, right?
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_01: I I do think there's um the the approach that she had and and the I guess confidence we open up with would to say like we don't deserve a free pass.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_01: I thought was really refreshing as a starting point.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_01: And it almost did and she invited us to challenge her, like she invited us to call bullshit on her, which is weird.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_01: If there's something we didn't agree with.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_01: But I also understand, and she had in the preamble talked about well, why would everyone why would anybody do a 10-year forecast?
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_01: And we we hear that all the time.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_01: Nothing's gonna hold.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_01: But that's exactly the point of doing it, because nothing is gonna hold.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_01: Even your three your tenure horizon gives you I love that idea of like backcasting where put your brand in the position 10 years from now and backcast to figure out what would have to happen.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_01: I love that idea.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_02: That's really smart, yeah.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, because then there's an infinite number of possibilities, and so you don't have to go down all of them, but you could probably shortlist that that list of opportunities and scenarios that you could plan for.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_01: And it's probably better to think about it in a 10-year horizon than just the immediate future where everything looks the same as it w is today.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_02: It's I thought that was really interesting on thinking about it that way.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_02: And even when we we we asked her about, hey, what's that one thing that you're really doing on Monday?
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_02: Practically, because again, I I've worked for some we've worked for some really large organizations, and I don't think any of them had a foresight department.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_02: And there's a chance that many people will go their entire careers without working with a foresight department.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_02: But that doesn't mean that there isn't foresight practices that we can probably take into the way that we think about strategy in our respective disciplines, the way we want to approach some of this thinking.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_02: And I would argue my mind really went agentic, to be honest with you.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_02: Can I create a corp, a co-pilot that is a forensic foresight practitioner that I can use to practice?
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: My head went in the exact same spot.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_01: I'm like, I'm gonna build a horizon scanner.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_02: There you go, right?
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_02: We're already building shit over here.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_02: But it's just it's these little things that we've seen pockets of it.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_02: I think she cited, you know, sometimes you see it from a creative team.
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_02: And, you know, like we've had the pleasure of working with Rethink, great creative agency.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_02: And sometimes you do see in their presentation something that is kind of feels like it's plucked out of, well, now that she's identified and now I know to look for it.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_02: At the time I wouldn't have known to think about it that way.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_01: Mm-hmm.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and she brought up the cultural part of what agencies do and how that is a bit of foresight.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_01: And and Rethink was the company that I instantly thought of because of the crass framework, I think, that they have talks about relevance in the cultural relevance of of of campaigns and ideas.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_01: So yeah, I think that's what I mean.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_01: Like some of the things are familiar, but that they do, but it is much more inclusive to create a, and she talked about it, the idea of creating a realistic scenario.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_01: Because you don't want something that's so dystopian or so optimistic or fluffy or you know, soft to for it to be dismissed.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_01: Like you want something that's real, and so you gotta root things in economics and cultural behaviors and demographic cycles and you know, population dynamics and all kinds of things that supply chains, global geopolitical things, all that actually plays a role in in creating a realistic scenario, which I think is so interesting about the role.
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_02: I still feel like I'm a little bit of a scatterbane because again, this is really new to me as a as a whole and uh and as a discipline.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_02: But again, what what I come back to is now something that I'm gonna take back on a Monday, is look at as I'm preparing 2027 planning.
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_02: It's like what are those scenarios, both short-term and and long term, that could potentially impact what I'm thinking about?
• 8:59
  SPEAKER_02: Um to try to build in some of those.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_02: Maybe future proof is the right, maybe that's the right way of framing it.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_02: A future proof the strategy a little bit more.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_02: And something that you hope you're not building a strategy that's you know, taking a bet on one year, you're kind of building one for a little bit longer term.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_02: I just, yeah, I I honestly it was one of the most unique conversations I think that we've had this year, and it's kind of put me in uh quite a pensive state for sure.
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and and this were like my connection to the brand part and thinking about applying this stuff.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_01: I think you know, the the part I mentioned before, the admiration that I had for her of saying we don't deserve free pass, I think is really great.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_01: And and where that applies to brand to me is on a Monday morning, or if you're talking about 2027, like brand doesn't deserve a free pass either.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_01: I and I think inviting that conversation and being on the on the front foot instead of being on the back foot.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_02: On the back foot, yeah, that's a good point.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_01: And going, okay, well, listen, we're not talking about, we're not measuring brand by a fish's ability to climb a tree.
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_01: We're talking about brand in the sense of foresight, like we're creating the future.
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_01: So let's talk about that.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_01: We're talking about where are the opportunities for the business to invest in for building the future demand that's going to drive cash flows for the business down the road.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_01: And I think there's something about that approach and maybe some of the tactics and tools that she had that that can help us change the like the terminology a little bit and also the measurement tools that we have are so short-term.
• 10:41
  SPEAKER_01: And so like if we change some of the tools that we're using, yes, it might actually be more beneficial and it might help open up those kinds of opportunities.
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_02: I I love that you brought it up.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_02: And I I know I've in my mind, I'm like, hey, I want to start really having a conversation around the measurement side here and how how she sees foresight being measured.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_02: And, you know, I I can venture to guess on you know some of that position.
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_02: But at the same time, I think the the the balance and counterbalance in all of this lives in the fact that, you know, I think she said like find out what shareholders are interested in.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_02: They're interested in profits, they're interested in money.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_02: So what is that that we need to make sure that you know what's that role of foresight that helps with the generation of that revenue?
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_02: It could be something because something was predicted.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_02: And this is where, like, again, the language matters in some of these, but maybe a futurist is like the really out there kind of ideas.
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, pie in the sky and the what-ifs, the big what ifs, and whereas like this is a little more rooted in you know the the economies of today or the ideas of today and what could change if something that's already happening gains more traction as an example.
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_02: So again, she she said she called it or she said it to the it sorry, she positioned it as the fact that helping the business being more strategic when moments change so that you know exactly how to react.
• 12:09
  SPEAKER_02: And I think that framing of it, I think makes a lot more sense for me on how I guess I will look for it now as I continue to navigate my not only the my current uh employer, but also how I think about strategy.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I I'm just gonna share my window.
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_01: So for you on YouTube, you can see this.
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_01: But this is the chart that was going or the the thing that was going to strategic choice structuring process that uh from Roger Martin uh on Medium.
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_01: Well, it's probably everywhere that he's published this, but um yeah, like this idea of creating possibilities, I think is what like uh futurists would do.
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_01: They pick one possibility and go, look at this.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_01: But then I think where the discipline of what she's talking about comes into play is they go, okay, well, what would they take it a step further?
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_01: What would have to be true?
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_01: And in the case of um like the metrics in the KPIs, they go, okay, well, what what are some of the things that we could do to test to figure out if we can generate data to see if this is going to react or respond the same way?
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_01: The other part is like if there's not buy-in, it's she talked about where there's fires.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_01: Show them, show people where there may be existing fires that could grow, and then what would happen?
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_01: So, what would have to be true if this did grow?
• 13:23
  unknown: Yeah.
• 13:24
  SPEAKER_01: So it doesn't always have to be about like the pie in the spot guy, the pie in the sky thing, or only about great opportunities.
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_01: It could be just existing things.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe that's part of it, is starting small and looking at adjacencies of where you are instead of thinking about something so far-fetched that people can't see the future w the same way.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_01: But then yeah, the question around, well, what would have to be true for this to happen?
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_01: That's that tenure backcasting, I think, idea that she had where you're looking back and going, okay, what what what would actually have to be true if this were the scenario that we plunked ourselves in 10 years from now and we're the company we are, like what would be missing?
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_01: Or what would be there for us to be successful?
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_01: Um it's so interesting.
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's a it's like an exercise that maybe some people do naturally, but then as an organization gets bigger, I can see it getting weeded out because it's inefficiency in some ways.
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_02: I think she she called it out.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_02: Is it it could be in pockets, it could be literally, you know, one person, small team that is maybe thinking this way and augmenting some existing strategy decks, but no one knows who they are.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_02: They just kind of you know live and sit in a in a part of the org.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_02: And sometimes you're just a re-org away from that not even existing anymore because there, you know, the value isn't seen.
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 14:47
  SPEAKER_02: And yeah, I again, it's not very often where I'm like, yeah, I've never heard of that before.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_02: But this is something I've genuinely never heard of before.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_02: And it's intrigued me to the point where, like we said, let's build up some uh co-pilots, some agents here to help to pressure test because I think it's also a great way to pressure test sometimes when you get commercial strategies, and sometimes you're a marketer, you're sitting in that room, it's like, hey, have we thought about these, about this thing?
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_02: Our industry is seeing this.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_02: What if something goes this direction?
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_02: It gives us something else.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_02: And I just I can't wait to start playing around with this.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_01: What are the assumptions?
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_01: She did ask that one question.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_01: What are the assumptions that we are making here in order for this to be successful?
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_01: And there's lots of them.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I'm sure there are.
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_01: We just assume we're gonna be there all the time.
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_01: And they and they're not.
• 15:41
  SPEAKER_02: Every strategy is usually built on assumptions of things being equal to what they are today when you're measuring and you're building it out.
• 15:48
  SPEAKER_02: Mm-hmm.
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_02: And we know that's not the case.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_01: That's how we strategy.
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_01: That's an interesting thing.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_01: Even thinking about this as a strategy.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_01: Well, it is strategy, but I wonder, I've never actually done this, but if you list your assumptions, like put them in paper.
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_01: Um in paper.
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_01: Who's got paper anymore?
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_01: Put it in a dialogue.
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_02: Put it in an email?
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_02: Do you need it on paper?
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_02: What do you need?
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_01: You can put it, you can do that.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_01: You can tie it, put it, write it on a note and put it on a pigeon and send it to me.
• 16:23
  SPEAKER_01: Like, even to articulate the assumptions that are going into a strategy, I think is would be interesting.
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_01: It's a piece of foresight, I think that's because you're also building a plan, like any strategic plan is about a a a state in the future.
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_01: But whether it succeeds or fails, really like unless there's a list of assumptions that is recorded for for a time capsule, yeah, then you're gonna look back at it and go retroactively I forget why you made those choices in some cases.
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_01: But so then you just shoehorn an explanation on it because you feel like that's what you probably thought about then, or you don't want to admit what you thought about then and you'd make up another answer.
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, or spin masters already.
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_01: I think that's part of that thing with anti-fragile and and the black swan events that NASA mentality.
• 17:16
  SPEAKER_01: I think that's part of it, is it's like there's a I don't know enough about that stuff, but have you read those books?
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_01: No, I haven't.
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think it's got something to do with that.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_01: Casting a range of opportunities or possibilities, but also like listing out the assumptions.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_01: I feel like that's real.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not just making that up.
• 17:32
  SPEAKER_02: I don't think the I'm still reading like the How Brands Grow Bible.
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_01: Oh yeah.
• 17:38
  SPEAKER_01: She's a beauty.
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_02: Anyway, Joe, if you're listening, thank you so much for sharing, giving us a short glimpse of like what this practice really is.
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_02: I'm genuinely intrigued, and I'm already thinking of ways to integrate it.
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_02: So genuinely appreciate your time and your insights.
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_02: It was amazing.
• 17:55
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, thanks for you for listening and keeping us in your ears.
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, stay sharp, everybody.