Latest / Game Day Collective / Week 0 OVERREACTIONS: USC in Trouble? Jackson Arnold Vindicated + CFP Stock Report

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Week 0 OVERREACTIONS: USC in Trouble? Jackson Arnold Vindicated + CFP Stock Report · Game Day Collective

• Josh Mahler: Jackson Arnold deserves a break. Okay, guys, I am one of the very few people that believes that. We're gonna talk about that and how USC fans absolutely deserve all of the criticism that they're getting. And Virginia might actually be a college football playoff contender, which is something that I should have seen, but I didn't see it before watching them and how they performed in week zero. College football gave us a Saturday of a lot of evidence, and today we're gonna be deciding what's real, what's an overreaction. And our takeaways from week zero. And pretty soon we're not gonna have to call it week zero anymore. But for now, we're still gonna call it that. So before we start, we want to start off by mentioning make sure to hit that like button and subscribe. And a big way to help us keep on growing is those two things, but also just comment down below. it helps us reach more in the algorithms. We want to do things like live shows here on the college football show. We want to do things you know, w with live shows like call-ins and things like that. So subscribe. like and comment down below as well. So that those help us keep on growing. And of course, you can follow us over at gamedaycollective.media and find everything that we do over there. We've got a lot of sports articles and things of that nature, as well as more about the show and things like that and about this network. and then we also have merch shop and all of that where you can support us even more. but of course, follow us on social media. But let's get into it because you're really here because you clicked on the thumbnail that said we're gonna talk about college football. So let's get into it and talk about college football. And starting off with what we know now after week zero. Of course, week zero gave us some action, but it didn't give us everything that we need. It didn't give us every one that that we want to be watching. but here's three things that I know that I can say with more confidence than we could maybe a week ago. So there's aren't really predictions, no kind of hot takes, anything like that. It's just actual evidence that I saw from week zero. So starting off with number one, and I mentioned this, and we're gonna get a little bit more into this later on in the show, so stick around. But Virginia's 2025 success might not be a fluke, and I also was very wrong about the continuity of this team. They have a lot of experience over there, they have a lot of talent on their roster, but as I mentioned, going into that game, I kind of gave NC State more of an ability to be able to compete in that game and possibly win that game. I picked them as an upset only because. man, f I just felt like maybe the continuity could be a problem for Virginia and coming off of such a big year for programs like Virginia, who aren't really historically a big program, and I'm not saying that to cut down Virginia. It's just historically when you think of blue bloods, Virginia is not one of them. When you have a big season like that, it is oftentimes the case that a team might stumble, a team might fall just a little bit. So you know, it's it's just something to Take a look at for Virginia, and I thought maybe that would be the case for this Virginia team, and I was wrong. So I really think that their 2025 success was not a fluke at all. It wasn't a one-time thing. They're here again this year. And of course, they're hoping that this season it doesn't end with a terrible ACC championship game and losing that, and then ultimately kind of mixing up the entirety of the college football playoff as we knew it. But anyways. they won thir thirty-four to eight if you missed it on Saturday. and held NC State to a whopping 168 total yards, held North Carolina State s completely scoreless through their first eight possessions. And they also got two hundred and sixty-five yards from their new starting quarterback and Bo Prabula who transferred from Penn State to Missouri, now over to Virginia, and pretty reasonable transfers there, I would say for the most part. So anyways. I don't like watching guys transfer a bunch, but he seems to have landed at a good spot where he's a good fit for the program and doing a lot of good stuff there on week one. So I guess week zero, game one, whatever we want to call this. anyways. they also had four players earn ACC honors of the week, which isn't really saying much since the entire ACC didn't even play. But anyways, you get the point. I don't really know yet if Virginia is a playoff team, but I know that I I'm done treating last year's ACC championship appearance and rolling over and and this kind of fluke mentality around teams in general. I I'm I'm I'm stopping with with the assumption that just because this is a team that's not used to that success, that they might not have it and roll it over to this year. So I'm gonna save the full the full analysis on Virginia here in just a little bit, because I I want to talk more about Virginia. I was very excited about what I saw from Virginia and I think they they got quite a bit of buzz there a at least around the nation for week zero. But anyways, let's go on to another thing that we learned and something else that we kind of gathered from week zero, and that was North Carolina. I think that their defense deserves our attention more than its offense. and I think it deserves it a little bit more than it did last year. It finally looks like a Bill Belichick led defense the way that we thought it might look. When Bill Belichick first came into college football coaching for the North Carolina Tar Heels. So, you know, I I think I'm not completely buying in all the hype that I think I've seen a lot of people give North Carolina. I think they looked all right. they scored 10 points in the first quarter, but they had zero over the four final 49 minutes of this game. they finished just one for five on fourth down. sorry, for TCU. this is who they were going against. TCU, scored only only they didn't score anything over the last 49 minutes almost the last three quarters didn't score anything so you know just looking at what TCU had they didn't give enough and so I do think that a lot of it came from the defense and I think a lot of it came from the defensive pressure some of it came from the elements this is another game that I want to talk about a little bit more in here just a moment but I I think that ultimately the headline for Bill Belichick is that he beat TCU and and that's about it. I I what I actually learned from this North Carolina team is that they may finally have at least a defense capable of keeping them in football games. I'm just not sold at all on that offense. I think that offense was kind of atrocious at times, but there were small things that if they just fix it, they could really piece something together. So North Carolina, I'm not completely throwing them out. I'm not completely discarding what they did on Saturday in week zero against TCU, but I do think that. We have to pump the brakes a little bit on the net. I'm gonna talk about them a little bit more here in just a moment as well. There's not a whole lot of games to recap from week zero, so we're kind of doubling up here on some of these. But another thing that we l we learned was about USC. And we talked a little bit about this on Sunday's episode, but I think that depth could kind of decide a little bit more playoff races than I think is a lot of the star power. I think we look at star power on teams and just assume that that's the team that's gonna be the best. And USC was definitely one of those teams that we looked at their offense and all the star power that they have on the offense and we just go with it. And even for the the defense, I I I wouldn't say that USC's defense was terrible at all because I think starting off USC starters, they were excellent. I think the Trojans, when you look at what they did, they were up 35 to 3 st entering into the fourth quarter. and Jaden Maiava, he went twenty-five to twenty-nine, two hundred and eighty-six yards. So I think he had a solid game. Again, a lot of the stars and the starters. they they they did a lot. And San Jose State though, they kinda pr came back a little bit late and produced three touchdown drives against USC's backups there in the fourth quarter. And again, I mentioned this on Sunday's episode and I know that's garbage time. It's not against the the guys that you're gonna see playing when it comes time down you know down the stretch when they have to play some of these tougher teams on their schedule. But I think USC's starting defense, it looked like a playoff defense. And it it looked like it could be a team that that could be led to the playoffs. It really did. It looked like a team that I think a lot of people were high on for USC. But I'm not sure that that second unit did. And I think that's why in the fourth quarter, I the the fourth quarter bothers me is because I didn't see very much depth. So those are the things that I'm I'm I'm looking at right now and I'm I'm kind of taking into to to factor is that later on if something were to go wrong and you have to rely on your second string. How are they gonna be f be performing? fatigue happens, wear and tear happens throughout the season, and and we have to understand that. So I'm a little concerned about the depth. I'm not completely throwing USC's chances away. I'm not writing them off. I'm not looking at them too much different. I am looking at them different though. So all right, let's go on. So right now, those are the things that I'm comfortable about in week zero looking at and things that I learned, but let's talk about some of the things in college football. That fans say that I'm not so comfortable with. no, kind of going through, we're gonna call this segment overreaction court. So we're gonna kinda go through and kind of the people versus the college football take. And we're gonna go through a few things here. So we're gonna go down and into case one here where we've got Jackson Arnold. He's not any good, he's garbage. See how he took some sacks late in the game. yeah, he threw some good passes, but it was against Memphis. Well, first of all, I just want to come out and say a few things for that. I think you look at Jackson Arnold I I think he's not okay, I I want to I want to preface this. I don't think that Jackson Arnold's an NFL quarterback. I don't think that he's on his way to making anything spectacular this season. I'm not saying that we're going to see the Jackson Arnold that we once thought we might see when he was back at Oklahoma. But here's what I will say. I don't think that that trashing a kid i is doing him any any good. I don't know. I just I I'm more or less, I guess, maybe offended by the by the trashing of Jackson Arnold. I guess maybe I could come out and say it. I'm kind of soft when it comes to that, I suppose. But no, it r it really is more this. My my the stronger argument for me is that we've confused the disappointing career path with the lack of talent. because you look at what Jackson Arnold did, I think a lot of people are just completely writing off what he did a in that game against Memphis. He went twenty five of thirty seven. He w threw for two hundred and ninety one passing yards. He had two t two passing touchdowns. Had fifty four rushing yards and a really good rushing touchdown with that. So s y y you look at at what he did, he had three hundred and forty five total touchdowns and three touchdowns against Memphis. I think he did enough to win that game. now, yes, closing time, sure you can make some of those arguments, but the problem that I have is that I think people are kind of criticizing Jackson Arnold ultimately because y You you look at at at what he's done. Yes, stepping down to a a group of six program, after starting off as a five-star guy, coming in and expected to take over at Oklahoma and be a Heisman favorite, all these things, I get it. but Saturday sure didn't look like a quarterback who just can't play. It didn't look a like a quarterback that doesn't have any talent. And that's what I'm fighting back against. I'm not fighting back against the fact that his career went downhill. It did. And and There's a lot of things that go to that because you look back at Oklahoma and tell the whole story. He started off his first season as a starter with a struggling and banged up offensive line. He had an offensive staff that was very un unstable. ended up having his his coordinator fired midway through the season. Of course, he was stripped of that starting role, I think, by the time that that h his offensive coordinator was fired in that season. you know, just looking at everything. He didn't have a quarterback coach there really that could help him out. He had some receiver problems with a lot of receivers that were banged up. I think they had their five starting receivers all banged up in that season. So who are you gonna pass it to? Of course your your offensive line is banged up as well and inexperienced, so how are you gonna run the ball to kind of balance it out a little bit? And the fan base completely soreed out on him. You know, they they they sold out very early on Jackson Arnold. So, you know, and and he had an enormous expectations with all of that going on in the first year in the SEC. Now, where I think it's harder to just kind of give him a pass was Auburn, because I do think you look at it, I think that was the wrong transfer choice. So you do have to put that on him. So maybe what what I'm arguing arguing is completely thrown out the window when he makes that decision. Maybe that's the case, and maybe you can make an argument for that. But I think that Hugh Freeze and Auburn, it never felt like the right environment. It never felt like the right s system, the right scheme for Jackson Arnold. It it just there was nothing about that that made any sense to me. I don't know, I really don't know why he went there. and and I criticized the the decision right away. I was hopeful for him. I was cheering for him because I really like Jackson Arnold. I see the talent. And again, the talent, the the physical talent was shown. Again, maybe his head's not on straight, all of that. so anyways, to get to my main point, I think that I'm not defending Jackson Arnold because I think he's gonna be a first round NFL quarterback. I'm not defending him because we we've well, you know, I think that that he's gonna be an NFL quarterback at all, or that he's even gonna make a team. He might not even make it into the UFL. He might have to go sell insurance after his time there at UNLV. I don't know. But what I'm defending is that I think that we've decided the entire story without acknowledging that. dysfunctional portions of his college career and how hurtful that has been on his entire career. So I I just want to say this because and I'm d mainly defending my point at this at this point. You can have your opinions on him and I'd love to hear more of him. But can we at least say this? Can we can we just at least let the guy play football before every mistake becomes proof that Jackson Arnold was overrated? Can we stop bringing up the five star? Because he's obviously not a five star guy anymore. That's not who he is anymore. Now, yes, he was a five-star coming out of high school, but that's not who he is anymore. So let's just throw that out the window. It's not worth bringing up anymore. And can we just look at what's there? that's all it is. But ultimately, I think it's overreaction that that Jackson Arnold's not a good quarterback. I think he's got the talent. He's got the physical talent there. I'm interested to see what he does with the rest of the season there at UNLV. I'm cheering for him. I hope that he can turn things around to at least end it with a bang, go out. looking solid here. He didn't have any turnovers. I know he took some sacks, but he didn't have any turnovers and he held UNLV together. And I think he was the main main one holding UNLV together. All right, let's go on to case number two. USC's fan base needs to show up. My vertic verdict on this is that it's just straight up facts. They you have to show up for your team. You cannot call yourself the your stadium and and everything around USC football, you cannot call it the Mecca anymore when you can't even get people to show up. I think I d I don't care what the excuse is, that was absolutely pathetic to see at as sm as small of a crowd as there was. I don't know the exact attendance that like the true exact attendance because I think I saw someone trying to announce that it was like fifty one thousand. There is no way that stadium was not close the entire game. I I wasn't just looking at the before and after game. I I was looking at during the game and there's no way that stadium was even a third full. so th it was the smallest crowd of Lincoln Riley's tenure for sure, at the very least. And man, I don't know that I've seen a stadium that empty since COVID. And so first, l let's look at the defense. I I mean, I don't know. I it I I like I know that it was hot. I know that it was hot outside, and that's your big excuse. Guess what? I don't hear anyone in the south, anyone down in in Florida and Gainesville, even with a losing team, I don't hear anyone down in Mississippi, or down in Louisiana complaining about the heat. It's just as hot, if not hotter, in a lot of those places. I think I saw somewhere around ninety-three, ninety-four degrees and some humidity. Cool, but I don't see any other South Southeastern Conference complaining that way. And you know what happens in the Southeastern Conference when you do have that big of a lack? So there's been times where I've seen Oklahoma, for example, have their student section leave the game early, maybe in the mid-third quarter, late third quarter, maybe early in the fourth quarter, and people are taking pictures and ridiculing them. And I actually have no defense against that. Other than the fact that yeah, the game was getting out of hand, they got bored, they're college students, they're not really there for the same passion as the rest of the fans that are in the stadium. But so that's not even the case. This was never full to begin with. But in the SEC, when that happens, you get ridiculed, and rightfully so. You have to show up for your team. All right, nobody wants to go watch a game against San Jose State. That was another defense that I heard. I don't care. That that that just totally looked r pathetic. Even for a it's a week zero game. How are you not excited? not only that, but another defense that I saw was Los Angeles is different than all these others. you know, we have so much to do. No, I don't think it's that there's so much to do. I think that there's so much better to do than watch USC play football. That's what the fan base is telling us. Yes, you do have to show up and support your team on Saturdays because that's what college football is all about. Do you know why? People like myself, the reason why we started up Game Day Collective is that we feel like college sports in general are just better than than professional sports. And the main reason is the pageantry, the passion that goes into every single game. No matter how hot it is, no matter how humid it is, or no matter what opponent you're playing against, you show up and support your team. I'm okay. I'm not even gonna ridicule people for it's hot. So I left by midway through the third quarter and the game was a blow-up because you know what? Sure, I'll give it to you. It's not who I am. I stay there till the final whistle. I stay there even after that sometimes. Just because I like to see everything that's going on. I show up early. I'm in the one of the first in my seat. I'm one of the last to leave because I care about my team. When I go to a to a sports game to watch it, I want to watch the entirety of it and get the full experience. And college football is all about the pageantry. It's all about the passion. And USC, you do not have any passion in that fan base. So that was pathetic. I don't care who it was. I don't care how hot it was. I don't care what city you're in. Y your fan base is pathetic. and I I don't I don't want to hear any excuses. They're number 14 in the country. They're one of the teams that a lot of teams a lot of people are picking to to show up and and make it to the playoffs possibly. They they think that they're gonna be a contender in in the Big Ten. this is national media that we're talking about. So you've got to show up when you've got a team this good. This is one of the most anticipated games of of or sorry, one of the most anticipated seasons of Lincoln Riley's tenure. It's kind of a make or bust year for him, and you can't even show up for your own team. I think it's pathetic. Zero excuses. All right. Another case. North Carolina will look North Carolina looks so much better after beating TCU. My verdict is pump the brakes on North Carolina. I think that North Carolina deserves all the credit in the world. And I'm not I'm not radically changing my opinion of North Carolina one way or the other. I'm not gonna say that I don't believe in them. I don't believe that they can change, that they can get better, anything like that. That's not what I'm saying. I just I don't I didn't see enough there. Now there's there's a lot. We've mentioned this here on the show. There's a lot when you look into the weather, how wet it was and all of that. There's a whole bunch that played into this. It was overseas. You have jet lag on both sides, all of this. I get it. So I don't want to put too much stock into that game at all for either team. but in that game, if we're taking that game as learning something from it, I look at North Carolina and I do think that there were improvements. Absolutely. The defense was legitimate, absolutely. Billy Edwards handled awful conditions, yes. And they won a game that they lost 48 to 14 the previous year. But This also felt like a game that TCU repeatedly volunteered to lose. They gave the game away on multiple occasions. They went one for five on fourth down. they had 11 penalties for 90 yards. They failed three fourth down attempts where North Carolina's defense turned in change, you know, changes of possessions where they could have scored a field goal. So three of those fourth downs, they could have scored a field goal and had nine points right there. Guess what? They only lost by five. That's a win. Take your points. That's what we learn in the rest of the college football world. not only that, but they they lost a fumble as well. So there was another turnover there. they they produce produced zero points after the first quarter. They just all the penalties that they had too were timely. They were terrible. So looking at this, I mean it was just a TCU team that just repeatedly gave North Carolina opportunities to win the game. It looked like TCU there even right before half where they didn't understand what went on on the field. Get it from like from a fan's perspective, I get it. You're gonna have some miscommunications, but you're a professional coach and and a professional coaching staff. You have got to have that stuff ironed out and ready to go. You have got to know what's going on on the field at all times. So no excuses for TCU. I thought TCU looked very bad, very poorly coached the entire way through. So North Carolina, I don't think they suddenly became great on Saturday. They became competent. And after last season, I think competent looks incredible. So I do think that North Carolina has some room for improvement, a lot of room for improvement. But they also could make that room for improvement. I've mentioned that. I do like the way that the tight end room looked. I like the way that that we we saw the offense kind of manage the the poor the poor situation that they were in. So, you know, ultimately I I do think that there was a lot of Good things. Again, Billy Edwards. I thought that that he handled himself pretty well in terrible conditions. So they significantly improved, but they're not suddenly a ten a contender. And so I've I've heard some people just kind of overhyping North Carolina. I'm just not ready there. Pump the brakes just a little bit. All right, let's go on to the stock market real quick in college football. And this is a lot more about who we're buying or selling, maybe based off of week zero, or maybe just looking forward. into the rest of the season and right now looking back at at week zero I'm buying a little bit of stock into Memphis. I actually liked a lot what I saw from Memphis. This is a very fresh team. This is year one for this team specifically under Charles Huff. So and it was his debut and they were on the road. They were underdogs. I I know I picked picked Memphis to win this game, but there was several factors that I saw that could lean against them. in in many ways. But you look at Memphis, they scored the final thirteen points of the game to win twenty seven to twenty one. the the new looking roster has nineteen transfers. They have the new new head coach in Charles Heath, like I mentioned. So, you know, we spent the off season talking or g I guess this this off season leading up to this game, talking about UNLV and how, you know, this group of six it could be a group of six playoff team. and and we really should have been pa paying a little bit more attention. And I say we as in the rest of the landscape of college football media because I was talking about I was. But no, in all seriousness, I think I'm buying a little bit on on Memphis. I like them in their conference race. I like them for overall. I think that they showed a lot of good potential things. I think they showed that they got some dudes out there. and especially on on defense. I saw a lot of heart, a lot of grit from Memphis and with the schedule that they've got ahead of them, why not? I'm gonna buy a little bit of stock. Not a whole lot. Confidence level, like maybe an eight out of ten. Pretty high. but not like sold out all c all in on them. We might have to sell pretty quick if we see some bumps along the road. North Dakota State, I'm feeling pretty confident on them, like eight and a half confidence level to buy some stock there into North Dakota State because they didn't just squeak by their FBS debut like I thought they would. I thought that Jacksonville State would have kind of covered the spread there, kept it close and they really looked like they might for the most of the first half and then right before halftime, North Dakota North Dakota State just started taking away. And looking like the North Dakota State of the FCS. So they ended up winning that game 33 to 7, handled the Game Cox, you know, and and ended up held holding them to only about a 170 yards. So, you know, I think that that that was absolutely incredible. and also with North Dakota State, it changed this rule back in June, meaning that the FBS programs such as North Dakota State, who just recently came into the FBS, are immediately eligible for bowls and potentially the college football playoff. So they they meet the applicable requirements. and right now I'm pretty sure my my research might be wrong, but North Dakota State, they they could possibly be one of those group of six teams to look at down the stretch. And if they're able to handle business the way that they did this past weekend, I don't know. Watch out, watch out. I think that this could be really good. But North Dakota State, I don't think they came to the FBS just to kinda you know, come in and and hang around. I think that they might be one of the better teams in their conference and I think we should be taking notice. So I'm definitely buying some in North Dakota State. I'll I I know I just got done ragging on North Carolina just a little bit, but I'm gonna buy a little bit of stock in North Carolina and confidence level is sitting at a six and a half, so we're gonna be really quick to tap that sell button really quick. And it might be even before the bumps come that we you know if we start to see bumps along the way, we're hurrying up and selling really quick on them. But I'm I'm about a six, six and a half, somewhere in that range. I'm buying just a little bit of stock in North Carolina because I'm not buying a whole lot. I'm not blind buying any kind of playoff stock, anything like that. I'm buying it kind of like a a seas you know, that this this season is not a complete disaster anymore for North Carolina. I think they might actually be able to win a few games. They might be a bowl eligible team. and so buy just a little bit of stock in North Carolina thinking like, hey, they might even be an upset team for some of these other teams on their schedule. I don't have their schedule up ahead of me right now, but Who knows? I'm not buying anything ki like I think they're gonna start to be an explosive offense or that they're an ACC contention or definitely not in college football playoff contention, but I think that they've made some improvements. I think that they showed a lot of physicality, I think that they showed a lot of competence and actually some with Bobby Vitrino there on the offensive staff and all of that, they're they're able to win an ugly win. And so I have to give that much. So I'm willing to buy just a little bit there on North Carolina as well. Alright, let's look at the college football playoff board here. This is the Game Day Collective playoff board. We're gonna kinda kinda go through some of the teams that we're gonna pencil in, some of the teams on the bubble, and some that are in the danger zone. And we're gonna start off with the teams that I feel like are in. They're in the playoffs right now as we stand. And a lot of this is just prediction, but I'm gonna say the teams that I feel really good about being in the playoffs right now is Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, Notre Dame. And Indiana. Now, I thought about throwing Texas in there, but I'm just not that confident in Texas. But those are five teams that I feel pretty good about. they're they're also you know five of the top teams in the preseason top six. So I I think that you look at this, I think that there's teams that very well I think that they could be in there. So nobody's actually a lock here on August 31st when we're recording this, 32nd when it comes out. Did I just say that? There's no August 32nd. Tomorrow's September 1st already, isn't it? Goodness gracious. I'm just looking at the the date in my top and up here and seeing August 31st and just assuming the next day is the next biggest number. But anyways, right now we're not gonna pencil and we're not gonna like lock anyone in, but we're penciling them in because then we can erase them later on. so it it just kind of means that I I would be surprised if one of these right now complete prediction without seeing any kind of production on the field, I'd be a little bit surprised. If one of them is not in the group of 12 there towards the end of the season. Now, I will say for Indiana, it's tough for me there for Indiana. And the main reason just because I've, you know, I the biggest struggle that I've had is I'm hearing a lot of hype around Josh Hoover. And I do understand the hype, but he's also turnover prone. That's the big thing for Indiana that I really want to see. And I'm excited to see what he does here in week one. So looking, looking forward to Indiana. And I I do think Indiana's A pencil in. Pencil in right now. I think on the bubble you've got Texas. I know I wanted to put them in the bubble, but and and actually I forgot one more. There were there was one more in that I p I'm penciling in right now, and that's Miami. So apologies, but Miami is definitely penciled in. Now on the bubble, I've got Texas, Texas AM. I'm gonna throw them in there just because of the rankings, but we've got Ole Miss, I'd say Oklahoma, LSU, Texas Tech, Alabama, Michigan. And SMU. Now, not all of these teams are equal, not at all. And in fact, I'm adding another one in here right on the bubble, and that's Virginia. And we're gonna we're gonna talk a little bit more about Virginia here in just a little bit. but I think they're knocking on the door, so I'm gonna put them in the bubble as well. Again, all these are kind of penciled in, especially being total prediction. I'm just writing it in really a light pencil, so it's easy for me to erase it and be completely gone by the time we get there. But not all these teams are equal, but I have to put them in there. Based on preseason predictions. So that's that's where we put these teams. Now we go to the danger zone, and right now I'm putting USC down in the danger zone because I just I saw them struggle in the fourth quarter. And again, I know it was garbage time. I know it wasn't all their starters, but I I'm not convinced. I'm just not. Okay. And so I need to see a little bit more consistency. Now, I'm not completely marking them out. I'm still putting them on this list. I just think that they're in the danger zone. I think TCU is completely off the board now because we saw them. I'm I'll bring them up, but I know that people kind of had some high hopes for TCU in the Big 12. Now they're not completely out of it because they could still win the Big 12. Sure, go for it. I just thought they looked horrible, so I'm removing them completely out of the picture. if they want back on the board, they're gonna really have to earn their way back into it. All right, let's take some receipts. Some receipts that we're gonna cache, return, and some new receipts. So the cash receipts are something that we've previously nailed. cashing those in, kind of like a ticket that you need to go get your money for. Returned receipts, something that we just completely got wrong. There's no excuses. And new receipts where we've gotten new predictions that we're officially putting. I I guess I'm officially putting my name on. And first we're starting off with the cached Memphis over UNLV. The the pick that I had was 3128. That wasn't terribly off because it was 2721. and so I had the f the winner picked in that game the whole way through. Like I said, I wasn't super confident with it. I think I gave it a six or a six and a half confidence level on how I picked them, but I did see a path where man I felt good about Memphis coming into that game. And so it's on the record, we're cashing it in. Go ahead, let's let's cash that one. All right, now the one that we're gonna return was NC State over Virginia because I have to completely own up to this one. I picked NC State to come up with the upset. I thought that they would beat Virginia. They were on this roll against Virginia. And Virginia didn't just beat them. They clobbered them 34 to 8. And so there is no spin available here where I can say, yeah, but I I will give you my reasons. CJ Bailey was the biggest reason that I looked at it and I said, you know what, they've got a new quarterback over with Virginia. They got some new new skill position or like new key pieces, not skill positions, but key pieces on both sides of the ball. I don't know. I'm just not sure about the c the continuity. And I was wrong. Wrong about both teams because NC State looked horrible. I think they are out of any kind of a discussion right now because that was an ACC game too. So it's not like they get the the North Car sorry the TCU treatment and yeah, you lost the game, but you know it's okay because it was a non-conference game. No, that was a conference game and you lost horribly. So yeah, gonna have to to completely return that receipt, rip it up, shred it, do whatever we can to that one and get it off of our record. All right, new receipt. I did pick North Dakota State to win that game against Jacksonville State. I picked them, but I thought that Jacks Jack State would have kinda kept it close. I I thought they would have fought a little bit harder, kind of the way that we saw in the first quarter and a half. I thought that felt like the game that I thought I was gonna see just because you've got an experienced FBS team against a non experienced FBS team. They're experienced, but and they've got a new quarterback. Didn't even matter because North Dakota State Here's here's the receipt. I'm gonna put it out there. I think North Dakota State will finish in the 2026 season. I I think they're gonna finish the 2026 season ranked in the AP top twenty top top twenty-five, sorry. So I I think they're gonna be in the top twenty-five. I think they're gonna be a really good team. I think it's gonna be hard for people not to start to talk about them. I I think that this is bold enough for me to remember, but it's also reasonable enough for me to defend. And I think it's a measurable take as well. I think you look at it, I think that that this one with North Dakota State finishing ranked, I I don't think that's super bold. I just think that that's one that I'm willing to put my name on right now because I think that that come time in in November, I think North Dakota State they shocked me on how well they performed. I knew they'd win that game. didn't know because I put it at like a six or six and a half confidence level, but I I felt like they would win that game. Did I think that they were just gonna blow Jack's State out of the out of the The water? No, not at all. So very impressed by their performance and the fact that their new quarterback kind of took over with some poise and and and handled business there. I feel really good about them moving forward. Let's talk about some things that nobody's talking about. and not necessarily nobody, because I think Virginia has gotten some attention now, but I I I think they they're not getting enough attention because I really think that they could make the college football playoff. Not that they're definitely making it. I think that they have a legitimate path after winning a conference game in week zero. And they did it with fashion in your first game of the season. So I I think that right now I'm looking at them and I don't know. I mean, I think that they answered every bit of question that I had for Virginia. It was answered. So you know, I I really like this team. I really like what they've got and you know. they've they've brought in like so many transfers incl including their starting quarterback in Bo Prambula and they ended up d demolishing their conference their conference foe who was running up I think four straight wins on them. So yeah, I I really like Virginia right now. And now here's here's what I have. What if Virginia isn't chasing an out large at-large bid anymore? What if they're capable of winning the ACC and they get locked in there? That's I I don't know. I I see Virginia and I think that there's not many teams on that schedule and I don't have it pulled up in front of me. I need to be better at that, but I don't think that there's too many teams in the ACC that I think are really too much better in the ACC there than than Virginia. All right, another one that not enough people are talking about is that I think that North Dakota State's FBS move is gonna become a lot bigger of a national story very quick. I think that Jacksonville State was week zero. There wasn't a whole lot to talk about, so sure people are talking about them a little bit, saying, hey, look, they won their first game of the season in the in in in the new league. But I think it's gonna start to get a little bit bigger because it's gonna be have the more they win, the more significance it's gonna have. So look at North Dakota State too. They've won 10 of the previous 15 FCS national championships and entered the FBS with a a huge history of success. Okay, this is a team that is used to winning. So what happens if North Dakota State goes 10 and 2 and wins the Mountain West? I think there has to be a discussion made here that they're in the mix. now I don't know with ten and two with two losses on the season, maybe not, but winning the Mountain West, I don't know. It it's gonna be really tough for me to look. It just depends on where everybody else is sitting there towards the end. I guess if they're ten and two and win the Mountain West, I think they would they might be the highest ranked group of sixteen. So I think that this might be one of the biggest discussions here very soon. Alright, another one is that Memphis may have already won the most important group of six game of August. And I know that's not saying much because there's not many games but that were played in August. But I think that you look at UNLV, they kinda carried in to the this season with a significant playoff intrigue. I think a lot of people were looking at them as the possible team to look at in the the group of six, and it's tough to lose your home opener and fight back from that. So I don't know. I'm looking at Memphis right now. They're right now the top in the in the group of six with North Dakota State for teams to make it right now. I I don't know who else you'd put up there. Now there's still a lot of season ahead of us, so I don't want us to jump too quickly, but I think that that that matter or that mattered a whole lot because you think of the 2026 format and how it's gonna guarantee a playoff spot to the highest ranked champion from the American, the Conference USA, you've got the Mac. let's see, Mountain West, Pac twelve, now. yes, that's a conference again. And then the Sun Belt. So you've you've got six teams there or sorry, six conferences that the the highest ranked conference champion of those conferences is gonna get an at-large bid. Who knows? The the way that the season's going right now, there can be two. Who knows? I don't think that's gonna be the case. That's a very hot take right there. But I think that if we're arguing about the group of six playoff spot right now, I don't think that you'd be too Crazy to say that we might be talking about that Memphis UNLV game for a a a a tiebreaker in where it it might come down with Memphis UNLV, let's say North Dakota State's in the mix there, and it comes down to that game. It could. So, anyways, to close out the show, I want to ask you real quick, if you made it this far, make sure to hit that like button, hit that subscribe button, and follow us on social media. But comment down below if you could buy stock in one college football team before week one. Who are you buying it in? Who do you think is just gonna have the season that has the biggest turnaround, the the biggest payoff from your stock that you could possibly pick? So let me know who that might be here before before we get into week one because I'm interested. I'm interested to see what college football fans are truly thinking about the teams and and what they might have coming into week one. I think there's a lot of really fun games when you look around the country. and I'm excited for it. I know you guys are excited for it. That's why you're tuning in. So again, hit that like button, hit that subscribe button. That'll do it for this edition of the college football show here on the Game Day Collective Network. make sure to subscribe here on YouTube, follow the podcast, and leave us a five-star review wherever you're listening. And follow Game Day Collective on X, Instagram, Facebook, and visit Game Day Collective.media for more college football coverage throughout the week. And remember, the conversation doesn't end where the show does. Welcome to the collective. I'm Josh Mahler, and we'll see you next time.