Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / March Madness First Round Betting Guide PART 1

Transcript

March Madness First Round Betting Guide PART 1 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: The Favorite podcast is presented by FanDuel Sports Book. There's
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: no better place to make every moment more than with FanDuel.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: I bet with FanDuel because they're safe and secure, they
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: offer great odds and markets across the NBA, n h L,
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: and more, and because it's fun to combine multiple bets
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: into same game parlays. So if you're new, just download
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: the FanDuel Sports Book app to get started now. Sign
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: up with promo code Favorites so they know I sent
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: you. You You must be over in president in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Michigan,
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, New York, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia or Louisiana.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Gamboon problem called one eight hundred next step or text
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: next step to five three three four two in Arizona
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred Gambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: RG in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey. In Virginia one eight
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: dot org slash chat in Connecticut one eight seven zero
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: seven one one seven for confidential help in Michigan one
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: eight seventh having seven zero s t O P in
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Louisiana called the Tennessee Redline one eight eight nine nine,
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: or visit one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Noman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: It's March Madness Week. There's no reason to delay. It's
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: March Madness Week. We're gonna have on b J Cunningham.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: We're gonna break this down into two parts. First part
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: Part one, all the Thursday games. Second part Part two,
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: all the Friday games. Listen to them consecutively. Listen to
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: him one at a time. Listen to them Friday first,
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Thursday second. However you want to do it, whatever you
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: want to do. B J. Cunningham are college basketball expert
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: for the Action Network who joined us last week for
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: a conference tournament podcast. Predictions is on the podcast today
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: as always, my partner in crime, in Happiness, Professional Better,
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: my BFF companion compadre Mr Simon Hunter Chat. I'd be
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: a miss not to bring it up before we dive
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: into basketball. A lot a lot of stuff has happening
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: with football this past week, and a lot of people
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: reaching out to us I get stuff wrong all the time.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Can we not take a little victory lap on Tom Brady?
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: We from day one both were like, I don't know,
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: we didn't We didn't really think Tom was really committed
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: to the retirement. And did I swing a miss on
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: that Deshaun Watson stuff. I did not think he was
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: gonna get out of that. And and he will be
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: picking a team between the Saints Carolina as we're recording this,
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: either the Saints Carolina or the Browns, which is actually
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: a pretty sneaky team, because it made sense to me
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: they'd send him Town FC. So football never any news
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: cycle chat. It's it's crazy, like trying to keep up
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: with everything. What I love the most is a couple
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: of weeks ago, we had a rape bun on and
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: we went through all of our favorite futures and the
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: best way to bed divisions or conferences and teams were
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: thinking about really focused on teams from twenty one and longer,
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: and we all settled on loving the Chargers. I bet
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: the Chargers that day to one here in the state
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: of Connecticut. Two hours after the podcast was released, they
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: trade for Khalil Mack and they've since signed j C.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: Jackson and all of a sudden, while the a f
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: C West in the a f C is a brutal conference,
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Chargers are in play like they are a really good team. No,
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: and I've had a couple of protects me Iron sharpens Iron.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: Just about the same thing with the Rams. Last year,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: Rams were in a division with Arizona, in the division
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: where you know, forty niners. They might have stunk to
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: begin the year, but the end of the year they
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: were one of the toughest teams in all football NFC
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Championship and being the Rams rest the fourty niners, it's like, again,
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: I get people can speak about these good divisions. I
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: love it. So I love the Chargers. They are really
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: taking taking what we talked about. They have a bunch
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: of cap space and they're using it. So Chris Raban,
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: who loved the Bengals, They've gone out and now I've
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: signed three offensive linem or maybe it's two. I know
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: they're in talks about the third offensive lineman. These teams
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: that we talked about long shots having cap space, they're
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: addressing their issues. So yeah, good good weekend if you're
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: a Chargers fan, if you're a Bengals fan, that's some
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: of the bad Jaguars futures. I don't know what the
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: hell they're doing. And Pittsburgh, I mean Mitch's back chat.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: I don't know how if you're you're a bitter X,
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: but it will be hilarious if he goes to Pittsburgh
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: and puts on the Hall of Fame career. I only
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: want greatness for Mr Biscuit. I want him to uh
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: to go on and have a Hall of Fame career
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: with pitt Why he was caught in a bad situation
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: in Chicago with the coach who didn't know how to
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: use him and underperformed due to circumstances and then got
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: real roaded out of town. And I think he deserves
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: better and it will bring me great satisfaction to see
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: that a quarterback this good was on our team and
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: if not for a coach that I hated and thought
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: was pretty incompetent, UH, we could have been in a
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: much better spot. And I think as a Bears fan,
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: it it vindicates everything I think about the coaching and
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: the ownership that has existed on this team for generations.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: But that's enough, Simon. We got to get to the
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Thursday games. We gotta get to b J b J
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: number one. Kudo because when we had you on for
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: the Conference Tournament podcast last week, you loved Virginia Tech.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: Guess who won the A C C Virginia Tech. You
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: loved Iowa in the Big ten, not just because you
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: live in Iowa, not just because you went to Iowa,
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: because you thought they were the best team in the
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: big town, the best odds in the big time. Congratulations
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: you won that too. Uh well done. Let's see if
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: you can bring our listeners and us some more winners
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: on the podcast today. As as I said, we're gonna
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: go game by game. We're not talking about brackets. We're
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: going game by game Thursday, game by game Friday. If
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: you want to pepper in some long shot, some brackets,
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: some final four topic conversation, feel free. And by the way,
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: soon you're gonna be able to get merchandise that has
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: mine and Simon's faces on the back of a T shirt.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: I got that in the mail from the Volume team,
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: and I showed it to my wife and I said,
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: do you want it? She goes, no, why would I
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: want that? My family had a different reaction. Everyone in
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: my family once one now so that's I guess that's
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: a lot of love at home for Simon compared to chat.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: A lot of history there between me and my wife,
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: A lot of history, all right, b J. We got
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: a game at twelve fifteen on Thursday afternoon Eastern twelve
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: fifteen Eastern, the controversial eleven seeded Michigan Wolverines against the
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: sixth seeded Colorado State Rams out of a incredibly stacked
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Mountain West. They are underdogs, two and a half point underdogs.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Is in this game? What do you think? I'm kind
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: of staying away pregame. It's it's a very It's a
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: really fun matchup to open up the tournament. You know,
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: Michigan definitely got in because of the name, prestige, in
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: the strength of schedule. They really weren't that great throughout
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: the regular season. You know, you're gonna see a lot
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: of ball screens, a lot of post ups with Hunter Dickerson.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: Colorrod State not really good in pick and roll defense,
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: so Michigan will have a big advantage. Of the problem
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: for Michigan is they're actually one of the best teams
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: in the country at getting open three pointers, but they
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: just can't hit them. They're hitting under three for the season.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: But on the flip side of that, Colorado State not
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: that great at defending three pointers, and they do have
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: an incredible score in David Roddy that I'm not really
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: sure Michigan is gonna be able to guard with Diabatt
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: or Caleb Houston. I mean, he can go for thirty
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: at a moments known as he's six six, shooting over
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: from two point range, over percent from behind the ark.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: The big thing for me is, I think this is
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: gonna be a fun live betting games. Start off the tournament.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: Colorado State is arriving late and Indy. They had some
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: travel mix ups. They're leaving early Tuesday morning, getting in
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: the two hour time difference, only one day of practice,
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: so you could see them come pretty slow out of
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: the gates. And like we saw with Michigan the Big
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Ten Tournament, they're very capable of blowing a big leads.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: So I think this situation where if Colorado State gets
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: down early, I'd probably hop on the rams live give
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: me a team to advance. Michigan. Wow, Yes, I mean
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: they're just all around. I mean, Colorado State has had
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: a great season, but I really don't think they have
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: the bodies and the athletic doesn't hang with Michigan, especially
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Dickerson down long. I mean the tallest guy is is
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: six ft ten. If he goes out, they don't really
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: have another guy with that type of size to guard
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: Dickerson down low. Alright, nine teams in from the Big
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: ten Mountain West, great year. I got a lot of
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: teams intoo. I think four teams in from the Mountain
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: West not going to be a good start the first
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: game for the Mountain West. That's what we're saying. Dakota
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: State Providence listen to Jack Rabbits getting a lot of love.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: We're right now on Action Network. They could be a
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: sleeper out of this particular region. Providence another team you
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: liked them to potentially win the Big East. So is
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: this say rock and Hard Place BJ. I love love
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: the Jack Rapids to pull off a big upset here.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna absolutely un Providence out of the gym,
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: so Providence by in the Atlantics. In the analytics community,
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: they've been the luckiest team in college basketball from Ken
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Palm two shot quality. You know, you look through the results,
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: there's around eight wins that they had that they that
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: they should have lost in You know that negative aggression
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: hit them big time in the Big East Tournament when
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: Creighton went on a thirty one is to run against
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: them to beat them in the semifinals. If you haven't
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: watched South Dkota State play, they are an absolute wagon. Offensively.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: They finished top five in all of college basketball in
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: three point field goal percentage, affective field goal percentage, points
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: possession in both the half court and in transition. That
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: that last one in transition is huge for the jack
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Rabbits because they play at a fast pace in Providence
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: is in defending in transition. So outside of transition, you know,
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: Providence mainly struggles and off ball screens and off the
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: dribble three pointers. They're outside of top two fifty in
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: those categories. South Coast States fourth in the entire country
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: in both of those. And you know, one of the
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: biggest advantages that Providence has had over a lot of
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: opponents is they get to the free throw line at
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: the twelfth highest rate in the country. Well, South d
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Coast State defensively is eighth in preventing teams to get
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: the free throw lines. This is a horrible matchup for
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: Providence in the first round. I love South State on
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: the money line. I understand they're short underdogs, you know,
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: plus two. I think Providence is the shortest favorite ever
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: in the tournament as a four seat over a thirteen.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: But I can't tell you how much I love the
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: Southcoast South d Coast State team. I think they're just
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: gonna absolutely shoot Providence right out of the game. This
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: is the game where you get to look smarter than
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: everybody else because you choose South Dakota State in your bracket,
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, you've got an easy first
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: round win that nobody was planning on. I mean, Chad,
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: there there two guards Baylor Shireman and Charlie easily are
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: both hitting over forty from behind the ark like they're
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: gonna absolutely just torch Providence from all over the floor.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: So I honestly really don't see, uh, you know, how
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Providence is gonna get by this one. And even if
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: they do, then they have to play Iowa. So I
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: think Providence is going out early. But you know you're
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: you see that in the odds because Providence, I think
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: it's thirty five to one to make the final four,
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: so the odds makers have obviously adjusted for it. Transition defense.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: I think there's not like Division one team sign it.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: I love that called by you BJ. I definitely see
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: the line moving too towards this Jack Rabbit team. It
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: opened to an half, down to two one and a half.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: A lot of books. So the next one up in
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: our action app is Memphis Boise State. I love eight
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: nine matchups. It's always a coin flip game, but it's
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: the fun. It's more fun betting on the higher seed.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: And you see the higher seed right now in Memphis
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: minus two and a half. So again it's it's interesting,
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: is it is this one of these games where you
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: know they're not getting enough respect in this Memphis team.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: I think they're getting enough respect, and I think you'll
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: see them get more respect as the day is go on.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: I think you might see Memphis as we get closer
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: to the game. Obviously they've been one of the hottest
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: teams in college basketball to actually get into the tournament.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Uh So, I think you'll see the market find some
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: love for them, and you might see them get up
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: to minus three, minus three and a half. This is
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: gonna be the polar opposite of South Dakota State. This
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: is a huge defensive slug best. Boise State is one
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: of the few teams in this term and that can
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: actually match the size and athleticism from Memphis. They keep
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: teams off the offensive glass at an incredibly high rate.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: Memphis is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: the country, so Boise State little will handle them there. Uh,
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: you also have to be obviously, with Memphis size, you
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: have to be able to defend them at the rim.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Boys State can do that well. Boisey State can also.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: You know, they're eighty sewond and nationally in field but
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: potential out of the rim, so you know, number one
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: team in the Mountain Western that category as well. So
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: it's a really good match for them. Defensively. On the
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: flip side, you're gonna see just eighties type basketball from
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: the Boise State. It's gonna be a ton of post ups.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: They're just gonna throw the ball down low. They're gonna
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: take their sweet time on offense. They're really good at
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: scoring in the rim. But you know, Memphis with those bodies,
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: is also great at defending at the rim. So the
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: big thing with boise is their snails pace has to
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: outweigh Memphis temp. Memphis loves to get out on transition.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: They love to push the ball, where Boise State just
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: loves to sit there in the half court. They don't
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: turn the ball over the high rate. So I actually
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: do kind of like the Broncos in this matchup. I'm
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: waiting to get a better number. Memphis is also one
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: of the highest turnover teams offensively in the nation, and
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: Boise State turns people over a pretty high rates, So
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: I think it's a decent matchup for Boise who can
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: really match Memphisis size and athleticism. But again, I think
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: you're gonna if you wait, you're gonna get a better
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: number on the Broncos come Thursday. Memphis is one of
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: those teams I can't believe how little impact they've had
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: in the postseason since Penny hard Away has been the coach,
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: considering the talent that he attracts and how high their
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: prospects their their players end up going in the draft,
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: but sort of the ceiling on their prospects. Yeah, I mean,
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: if they get by Boise State here, their next round
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: matchup against Gonzaga is gonna be a doozy going up
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: against Chedole Graham and Drew Timmy that's gonna be an
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: amazing matchup down low. So we'll see if that you
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: know that talent and size athleticism is going up against
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: the best team in the country, we'll see if they're
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: actually for real alright. Uh, Norfolk State sixteen seed going
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: against the defending national championship National champions, the Baylor Bears.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: Baylor is a twenty one and a half point favorite,
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: which almost feels light for a one in sixteen. Yes,
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: Baylor does have some injuries coming into this one. So
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: midway through the season they lost their best interior defender,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: Jonathan to Chua. Uh. Then they also before the terment
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: they lost or their guards LJ. Crier. He's most likely
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: going to be out for this one, so that obviously
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: doesn't help them. I Mean, here's the thing with Baylor,
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: is there outstanding in half court defense, but they're not
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: that great in transition two four in the country. Norfolk
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: State plays an incredibly fast paced twenty of their possessions
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: are in transition, and they attack the rim of the
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: thirty ninth highest rate rate in the country. Baylor is
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: one of the five worst teams in the country at
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: defending at the rim, So I understand the Norfolk State
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: doesn't have the size and athleticism pete with Baylor, but
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: they have the characteristics of a team that can give
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: Baylor some problems. They're very good three point defense, you know,
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: they're top ten events against both catch and shooting off
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: the dribble three pointers their fourth against midrage jumpers. The
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: problem is is, like I said, they're just not gonna
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: be able to match the size of Baylor. But Norfolk
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: State is the thirty third most experienced team in the country.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: They did play Xavier in which toss State in the nonconference.
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: They have seen at least somewhat of a decent opponent,
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: So I think Norfolk State actually hangs here. Uh. Plus
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: twenty one and a half, I think is a decent
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: number on the spartans here against Baylor, who has those
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: injury concerns. They're gonna win. But this is gonna be
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: one of those games where there's gonna be a ton
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: of meaningless buckets down the stretch, but very meaningful to
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: the spread. Number fourteen Longwood verse number three Tennessee. Is
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: this an upset special? It's plus seventeen, But I love Longwood.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: It's one of the few teams I've actually watched this here.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: I love Longwood. Uh. I, well, I'm glad that you
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: like long One because I really like them. Uh. They
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: are one of the luckiest teams in college basketball. They
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: went fifteen and one in the regular season in the
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: Big South. Fourteen of those wins were by eight points
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: or less, so they have just been riding that lucky
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: rabbit's foot all season. They're gritty, they're gritty. They shoot
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: a lot of threes, and that's great. But Tennessee is
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: third overall in the country and adjusted defensive efficiency, and
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: you saw that in the SEC Tournament. They can just
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: just shut teams down in the half court. It's you know,
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: Longwood is obviously put up some some great numbers. If
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: you go through all their Ken Palm numbers, everything looks great.
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: But they played the most difficult schedule in the country.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: Tennessee was third in terms of their strength of schedule.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: So I actually think, you know, Tennessee, they love to
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: play in the half court, and I think they will
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: make this a half court game, given how good they
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: are defensively. No, Tennessee grades out really well analytically for
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: a lot of things, but when you watch Tennessee there's
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: so many times where they go through stretches of just
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: shooting droughts for five sometimes ten minutes. So I think
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: the pace of this will we played a little bit slower,
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: not so much in transition. So I actually do like
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: under a hundred and thirty two and a half points,
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: And I know the spread is high, but I do
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: like Tennessee at minus sixteen and a half. The one
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: thing about Longwood their travel got delayed as well. They're
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: leaving at seven o'clock tonight on Tuesday, They're getting into
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: the hotel and India like ten o'clock, so they're basically
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: just gonna have one day and they play, you know,
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: turn around at forty five on Thursday. So uh, not
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: the best of situations. And I know I have Their
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: coach has been very outspoken about how Maddie is the
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: n c a UM. So I think Tennessee rolls here.
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: But I think they just shut down Longwood Longwood offensively.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: I think that day for long Wood, that's the difference
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: right there. Otherwise they had a real shot. Yeah, Tennessee
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: is a great team. It's really interesting. We talked about
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: this last week. I love the SEC this year. Tennessee Auburn, Arkansas, Alabama,
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: Kentucky like really competitive teams. Obviously, Tennessee winning the SEC
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: Conference title, UM proved how good they could be. Listen
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: to me, grabbed the basketball knowledge. All right, BJ take
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: your victory. Lab Here. Iowa is a ten and a
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: half point favorite against the Richmond Spiders and money has
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: been coming in on Iowa. Um, you called it last week,
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: you had Iowa winning the Big Ten title. They did
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: it first time since two thousand six? What say you here?
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: I say, if I wasn't a biased person trying to
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: break down this matchup, I would say that this line
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: is a tad inflated. The thing with Richmond, and you
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: saw in the A ten tournament they have an outstanding
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: point guard and Jacob Gilliard, who is a matchup nightmare
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: for Iowa if they decided to play Jordan bohand In
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: for a significant amount of time. There are a couple
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: of things for I would defensively that give me a
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: lot of concerns. You know, Richmond's top ten in the country.
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: Not turning the ball over on offense, which is what
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: Iowa basically lived off against Perdue in the Big tent
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: ampionship game, and second Iowa allows a ton of open
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: three pointers three four in the country of the exact
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: Richmond offensively and open three point rates. So if Richmond
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: gets those open three pointers and knocks them down, they're
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: definitely gonna be able to hang with Iowa. Now, on
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: the flip side of that, Iowa obviously has the best
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: uh non big men in the country and Keegan Murray
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: uh and Richmond doesn't really have an answer for that. Defensively,
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: and quite frankly, the Spider's defense overall for the season
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: has been incredibly blow average in both the half court
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: and transition. But well, worries me about Iowa, and you
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: saw it last year with Illinois. It's the hangover from
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: winning the Big Ten title. Illinois got ousted by a tough,
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: loyal Chicago team in the second round. This is a
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: really experienced, really good Richmond team who you know I
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: was Obviously, they won the A ten tournament, but the
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: high of a team like Iowa and Illinois who hadn't
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: won the Big Ten title for a long time, that
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: hangover tends to carry over into the first and second rounds. So, uh,
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: if I wasn't an Iowa fan and I wasn't biased,
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: I would tell you that Richmond plus tenner and a
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: half has a lot of value, but I'm not going
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: to do that because I love my hawk eyes. M.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: Can I guess say that I don't even know if
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: Keaty and Murray was the best non big man in
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: that In that game, Jared Ivy was amazing. M. I'm
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: not so sure. I mean, keck and Murray was the
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: best player in the Big ten tournament. We don't have
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: to get into a debate about who's better too, all right,
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: he might have been the best player in the tournament.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: Jared Ivy is the most electrifying player. I mean, yes,
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: he's obviously more athletic, but I mean Keegan Murray can.
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: He can beat you everywhere. He can go down low
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: and take you up in the post. He can hit
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: from three, he can just there. He's an absolute matchup
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: nightmare for any team really in the tournament. The reason
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: I said non big man is because if Stucky was
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: on here and I said that Keaty Murray was better
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: than Oscar Sheeway, he would jump through the computer screen
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: and choke me. So that's the caveat I had to
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: put up. I mean, Kei can Murray is incredible. He
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: went chat he went eight for ten from three against
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: Indiana in the semis. I mean, come on, I don't
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: know what you're talking about, So I'm gonna ask you
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: a question. Next s up, we got number sixteen Georgia
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: Georgia State verse number one Gonzaga. I do the singing
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: on this show plus twenty three and a half. Is
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: that a short number for the Zags? Like? Should I
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: be thinking the Zags here? That feels short? No? This,
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: this Georgia State team is actually really really good and
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: really underrated. You know, listen, Gonzaga will cruise, they'll get
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: by this, but are they gonna cover that spread atally?
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: Not so sure. Georgia State doesn't have the height to
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: compete with Gonzaga, but boy, that can they defend at
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: the rim twenty seventh in the nation and two point
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: field goal percentage field goal percentage all out at the rim,
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: which not surprisingly is what Gonzaga does best offensively with
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: chet Holgram and Drew Timmy and Gonzaga obviously loves to
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: push the pace. They love to get out in transition,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: but Georgia State is the third best team in the
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: nation in transition defense, so it's not that great matchup
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: for Gonzaga offensively if they can't score at the rim. Additionally,
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: Georgia State nineteen internal percentage thirty six and forcing bad
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: shot selection eight and defending off ball screens, which is
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: all what Gonzaga does at an elite level. Now, well,
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: Georgia State isn't that grave an offensive team. They do
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: run a lot of pick and roll, which is one
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: area that Gonzaga has tend to struggle with this season.
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: And honestly, if you look at some of their shooting
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: aggression stats, I mean, they're due for a ton of
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: positive aggression even if you look throughout their results all
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: season long. You know an analytics site called shock quality
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: that basically measured expected points and you know expected results.
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: Georgia State should have gone undefeated and the Sun Belt
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: this season. They were just incredibly unlucky and had a
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: bunch of wins that the losses that they should have won.
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: So I love the Panthers at plus twenty three and
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: a half. They really honestly should not have been a
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: sixteen seed. They should have been a fifteen I mean
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: for Gonzag, I mean the overall number one seed. This
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: is I mean they're gonna win, but I think they
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: would prefer to have a different sixteen seed than in
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: Georgia State. So I definitely think the Panthers are gonna
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: hang here and definitely cover twenty three and a half
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: Marquette three and a half point underdog to u n C, which,
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: let's face it, they don't be Duke and K's last game.
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: They probably get credit for three wins in that game.
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: They might not make the tournament. Do they advance, do
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: they cover? I this is one of the matchups that
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: I have really just up in the air and could
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: go either way. So North Carolina incredible rebounding team with
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: Rmando BayCon down down low against the Marquette team that
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: is outside the top thro hunter in both offensive and
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: defensive rebounding percentage. On the other hand, you have Marquette,
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: who is third in the country in terms of quality
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: looks they allow from three point range against the North
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: Carolina offense that have been hitting threes at an incredibly
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: high rate, but is also due for some negative shooting aggression.
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: Both these teams played a fast pace, which is gonna
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: favorite Marquette top fifty and transition offense. North Carolina outside
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: the top two fifty and transition defense. Marquette also loves
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: to shoot a ton of threes, which North Contas tends
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: to struggle defending. But that man, that rebounding advantage downlow
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: for North Carolina is absolutely no joke, and Baycott could
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: have sixteen seventeen rebounds in this games. So this is
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: one where I do think it's priced correctly along with
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: the over under, so I will ultimately be passing. Um. Yeah,
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: this is the one matchup I've looked at. I just
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: I really could honestly go either way, and I really
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: don't know what to make of these teams. Well, so
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: who do you choose to advance? If you have to
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: choose someone in a bracket? I will choose North Carolina
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: to advance given the fact that they are favored and
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: the rebounding advantage I think will outweigh any of the
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: shooting regression that they're due for. Take a shot on
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: college hoops this March with a risk free bet on
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: Fan Duel Sports Book. It doesn't matter if you're new
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: to fan or already have an account. All customers get
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: a risk free bet on the bracket. Just sign into
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: the Fandels Book app to claim your offer today. New
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: to FanDuel, sign up with promo code Favorites to get
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: in on the action. There, you can bet on that
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: underdog you've had your I on, or just go with
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: the favorite. Either way it's risk free. On Thursday, I'm
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: going with the Sandy A the State as text laying
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: two and a half against Crayton is my favorite bet
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: and with cash out the balls in your court so
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: you can close out your bet whenever you want before
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: the game is over. There's no better place to bet
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: the tournament than fandual sports Book. Joined now with promo
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: Code Favorites or if you already have an account, signed
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: into the FanDuel sports Book app to claim your risk
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: free bet today. You must be twenty one and overend
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: president in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan,
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, or Wyoming.
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: Refund issued is non withdrawal site credit that expires in
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: seven days. Max refund five dollars. Offers. Nonrefundable restrictions apply
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: see terms at sports book dot FanDuel dot com. Gambling
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: problem called one eight hundred next step or text next
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: step to five three three four two in Arizona one
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash r
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: g in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey. In Virginia one eight
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven, or
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: visit CCPG dot org slash chat in Connecticut one eight
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: hundred to seven zero seven one one seven for confidential
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: help in Michigan called the Tennessee Red Line one eight
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight nine, or visit
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Twelve
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: seed New Mexico State University getting six and a half first,
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: the five seed Yukon. I mean, Yukon, this is their
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: time to shine. I feel like every time we get
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: to this point, even though they're not even talked about,
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: this is usually when you can just makes a nice
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: little run in the tournament. I think the final four
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: long shot final four long shot in Yukon Huskies. Wow.
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: I mean I tended somewhat agree with that. I mean,
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: this is honestly an interesting match, but I think it
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: will be a trendy twelve five upset. You know, in
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: Mexico State has been the tournament a ton of times. Uh,
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: they're obviously, you know, experienced from being here. But you know,
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: North you know, Connecticut is an incredible defense, you know,
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: number one team in the country in terms of the
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: quality of three pointers that they allow. That's really bad
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: news from Mexico State, who takes a really high number
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: of reason is only hitting around thirty for the season.
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: Yukon also the number one team in college basketball an
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: offensive rebounding percentage. New Mexico State does rank pretty highly
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: and defensive rebounding, but they didn't have played an overly
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: difficult non conference schedule. The one team they did play
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: was Washington State, who finished the year top thirty in
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: offensive rebunding rebounding percentage. The Cougars grabbed eighteen offensive rebounds
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: in that game. So if I'm New Mexico State, I
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: am very, very worried about keeping Yukon off the offensive glass. Yukon,
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: I mean just all around great defensive team, but you know,
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: offensively they have tended to struggle. Uh They've had some
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: shooting most from from time to time, but you know,
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: in Mexico State not that great of a defense. So
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: I am leaning towards Yukon at the at the current number.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: I'd like to wait and see if maybe the public
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: comes in on New Mexico State. They've already gotten some
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: money from the opener. But this is actually a really
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: good matchup for for Yukon in the first round, in
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: one of the five twelves that I don't think as
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: a real good one of the twelfth that doesn't really
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: get shot of upsetting a five. I know we didn't
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: plan on this, but I am going to need you
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: to give me a final for prediction and Final four
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: and national title winner at the end of part one.
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying it right now. I'm gonna need it. Okay,
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: don't give me your attitude, b J. Just say yes, Okay,
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: all of a sudden, you got the best player in
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: the Big ten. You think you're so special. I'm just
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: asking for facts. University of Kentucky, which I think a
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: lot of people also think could be a very trendy
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: final four pick out of their region. They're playing St. Peter's.
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: They're pretty big favorites at seventeen and a half. That
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: tells you a lot about how much bookmakers respect Kentucky.
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: Right now, it's seventeen and a half considering the seating
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: they are. Yeah, it's it's a really not a great
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: matchup for the Peacocks, but they were. They are the
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: best team in this tournament against the spread the season
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: twenty and nine. But that being said, they are the
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: number one team in the country of the frequency of
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: their shots coming at the rim. But they are three
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: fifty second in field goal percentage at the rim. So
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: going against a Kentucky front line of Oscar sheepway, this
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: is really really bad for them. It's it's you know,
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: they are a pretty good offensive rebounding team. They do
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: get the free to line at a pretty high rate,
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: you know, But Kentucky, those are two areas that they
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: are incredible at, you know St. Peter's. If you look
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: at their schedule, the toughest opponents they faced the place BCU, St. John's,
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: Providence and I ownA twice in the m Double A C.
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: They got beat pretty handily in all five of those games.
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: So I think Kentucky cruises here. But you know, Kentucky
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: is a very high percentage midrange team there there don't
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: take a lot of threes. So if they're not hitting those,
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: man Draine shots, which are technically low lower quality than
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: three pointers. They could be in some trouble here, But again,
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: you know her she way is five the biggest guy
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: that St. Peter's has, so she boy should just be
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: able to dominate down low. But with that being said,
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: this line has got steamed pretty hard. It opened a
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: fifteen and a half and now it's up to eighteen
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: and a lot of books. If St. Peter's gets to twenty,
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: I don't like it. Uh, highly doubt it. Actually we'll
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: get there, but I may end up playing the Peacocks,
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: even though it is kind of a bad matchup with
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: the backdoor potential um. But other than that, I'm staying away.
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: We're entering in the country on shots at the rim.
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: When you're getting so many shots at the rim, it's
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: not good. It's just not good. It's just not good.
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: Next up, got number nine, Creighton plus two and a
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: half first the eight seed San Diegustin University. Fun fact,
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: Stan agust University towd. My grades weren't good enough to
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: get to their college. I hold a grudge forever. I'm
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: still pissed about it. My whole life would be different,
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: My whole life I wish I wish I got him,
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: but which is two and a half? Who gotten this matchup?
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: I love the Aztecs. For those who know, San Diego
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: State finished seconds in the entire country and adjusted defensive
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: efficiency per Ken Pump, you cannot score quickly on them.
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: There the number one team in the nation in terms
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: of their average possession length on defense, which is a
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: problem for creating. Who is going to try to speed
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: San Diego State up and try to score quickly? And
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: San Diego it turns opponents over top thirty in the country.
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: Crating's outside the top three offensively at turning the ball over,
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: so really not a great matchup. On top of all
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: of that, Creton was out was without their starting point
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: guard Ryan Nemhard, who broke his hands, so this is
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: really not a great matchup for creating offensively on the
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: flip side, creating very very good half court defense thirteen
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: in points where possession allowed. They're also top ten in
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: field goal percentagel out at the rim, which is really
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: basically where San Diego State runs a lot of their offense.
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: But the Aztecs are hitting a pretty decent percentage from
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: outside the arc, where Creighton hasn't been that great at defending.
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: So I really think this matchup favors the Aztecs given
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: how good their defense is. I love them minus two
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: and a half. And I just really am not sure
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: how Craton is going to score efficiently if their defense
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: isn't able to hit a high percentage of three pointers
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: and they're constantly turning the ball over. I'd like to
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: see a list of all the schools some applied to,
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: where he got in, where he got rejected from. I
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: also want to see your s A T. S course
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: to this. I was a good student. I told you
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: I cheated all with your high school. So I got
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: good grades. I got the exact grades I wanted to
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: get through high school. Was one of those kids you
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: can't stay. I was a good student. And by the way,
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: I cheated on the way through high school that too.
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: Those are two is that? Is that what made you
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: a good student? It's all all High school is about effort.
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: People put effort into studying, other people put effort into cheating.
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: It's either or. I mean, that's that's high school, right,
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: Fake it till you make it. The lessons you learn
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: about evaluating upside and opportunity on the Favorites podcast the
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: University of Vermont. I believe they're called the cat Amounts.
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: Um are taking down the Arkansas Razorbacks last year's tournament, Darling,
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: I love this team so much. In the tournament last year,
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: the Razorbacks five point favorites. They're playing a m on Thursday. Questions,
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: are you gonna be able to stay up for this one? Chat? Oh? No,
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: I listen, not even I I'm I'm there's no chance.
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: I'm probably done after halftime of Crate in San Diego State. Well,
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: when you wake up the next morning and check uh
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: your phone, you will hopefully see that Vermont has covered
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: five points. Because two years in a row, the Arkansas
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: is getting a really dicey first round draw. Last season
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: it was Colgate who almost got them. Now they get
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: an incredibly experienced Vermont team, and the market has hit
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: it pretty hard. Arkansas open a minus six and a
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: half and the Razorbacks already down to minus five. This
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: is actually a pretty good matchup for Vermont. You know,
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: first off, to the number one defensive rebounding team in
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: the country, so they should be able to keep Arkansas
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: off the class. Secondly, they're very good at defending inside
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: the ark two point Fielbo percentage allowed top eight, and
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: field goal percentage allowed at the rim. Arkansas cannot shoot
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: from behind the arcs, so really bad matchup for them
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: if they're not able to score from inside the arc.
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: Vermont is also going to slow this down to an
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: absolutely snails pace and force Arkansas to play them in
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: the half court, where where they are the second best
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: team in college basketball in terms of efficiency. Vermont is
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: also just incredible in terms of their shot selection. They
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: don't turn the ball over, and they're very efficient attacking
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: the rim. But most importantly I already mentioned per can
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: Palm fourth most experienced team in the entire country. So
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: if Arkansas is forced to play this in a half court,
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: grinded out style of game with the one of the
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: motor efficient offenses in college basketball, they could, without a
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: doubt be on upset alord. So I love Vermont plus
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: five plus five and a half and it's a nice uh,
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: it's a nice money line to throw it around Robin
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: on Thursday as well. Wow, we got a couple of
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: a couple of good upsets on this Thursday. One Chad
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: next day, Yeah me too, uh ten uh see San
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: Francisco plus one and a half first seven seed. Murray State, Uh,
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: Murray State thirty and two as seventh seed. That's that's
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: kind of crazy. They just don't play against good teams.
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: I'm guessing yes, yes, and no. I mean the the OVC,
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: it's typically just them in Belmont Moore Head State was
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: pretty good this year, so they had two decent opponents
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: in conference play. The last time they lost was December
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: against so they haven't lost. And the reason they are
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: so good is they just torch people in transition seventy
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: six highest frequency of possessions in transition sixth, best in
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: points per possession there. Well, guess what they're facing the
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: team that's one spot below them in that same category.
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: San Francisco is seventh in the country in transition offense.
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: So I think will end up seeing an absolute track meet.
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: And you know, the guard matchmen, this is incredible. You know,
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: these two backcourts are two of the best, you know
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: in mid major college basketball. Murray State, you know, when
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: they are in the half court, they run a ton
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: of off ball screens, you know, which bodes well against
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: San Francisco is outside the top two d and defending
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: that they also attacked the rem and incredibly high rate.
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: San Francisco. While they defend well at the rim, they're
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: allowing the sixteen highest frequency of shots at the rim,
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: so some pretty good advantages for Murray offensively. On the
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: flip side, San Francisco is an excellent three point shooting team.
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: They have the third highest points per possession on off
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: the drivel three pointers. Murray State is decent at defending those,
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: but where they aren't decent is in the post up
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: three in the nation, while San Francisco was third in
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: the West Coast Conference and post upsets. So with those
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: type of offensive advantages for both teams and the fact
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: that both are so efficient in transition, I think we're
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: gonna see an up and down style type of games.
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: So the total set of a hundred thirty six and
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: a half, I think that's way too low. I love
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: I love the over in that spot in this In
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: this game, I love the nickname for the University of
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: San Francisco. It's one of my favorite in all of
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: college basketball, the San Francisco Dons. I also loved the
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: two of what I would argue are three of the
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: best players in San Francisco Don's history played for the
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: Chicago Bolt. They won a national title in the fifties.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: Believe they were won a national title of the fifties
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: with with probably you know, arguably the greatest center in
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: Inda history, Bill Russell. Yeah, and you're probably high school
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: and right, Chad, you are okay. Last game on Thursday,
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: we got Akron at u c l A, another Final
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: four team from last year Final four Darling. They were
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: fun to watch. Lay it on as b J. Yeah,
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: this is this is when I might put you to
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: sleep late at night because it's gonna be paid. Played
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: at an incredibly slow paced Akron seventh slowest and adjusted
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: tempo in the country. U c l A well below
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: average and tempo as well. Well, you're gonna see you
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: from mccrownin's team is a lot of men range jumpers.
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: Because their tenth most efficient team in that category, Acron
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: is pretty average and defending that u c l A.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: Their offense is obviously very good, very efficient. But I
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: don't think a lot of people realize is that they
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: don't really take out a high number of three pointers.
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: We obviously saw jus An go crazy in their running year,
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: but they're outside the top three hundred in three point rate,
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: which in this matchup they may want to rethink because
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: Akron does tend to struggle a lot against three point
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: shooting teams. The thing about Acres, they shoot a very
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: high percentage from the floor, but they get to the
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: free throw line free throw line at the fifth highest
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: rate in the country, and that's one area that U
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: c l A tends to struggle defensively. I mean against
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: Arizona they allowed them to get to the free thro
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: line times in the Pact twelve championship games. So you know,
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: Akron didn't play the toughest of schedules. They their toughest
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: game they played was the opening game against Ohio State
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: in Columbus, which they lost on a buzzer beater. But
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: they did beat a really good Toledo team twice in
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: the MAC but two eighth in terms of strength of schedule.
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be really tough for them to match up
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: well here with U c l A. I will ultimately
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: passing on this game because I think the line is
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: priced correctly. The old runner is pretty correct, so uh, ultimately,
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: this game I think is just a pass in. U
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: c l advances pretty comfortably, al right, the other two
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: games that obviously we haven't talked about. Reminder, we're gonna
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: do part two the Friday games in a separate pod.
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: We're going to ignore the playing games because they're happening
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: today and most people are gonna hear that b J
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: before we get to part two. Give me your Final four,
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: give me your national champion. My final four is going
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: to be Texas Tech coming out of the West Region,
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: Kentucky coming out of the East, Arizona coming out of
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: the South, Iowa coming out of the Midwest. Arizona is
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: going to play Kentucky in the final, and Tommy Lloyd's team,
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: the Wildcats, Well, the Wildcats are gonna beat the Wildcats.
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: Arizona is going to cut down the nets against Kentucky.
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: That is a really full, interesting, well conceived, diverse final four.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: You've got like underdogs, you've got a number one seed,
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: You've got a blue blood in there. I like it. Yeah,
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: I mean Gonzaga. They're ripe to get taken down by
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: a Texas Tech who is the number one defense in
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: college basketball. So that's going to be one of the
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: more if it, if it ends up happening, those two
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: teams is going to be one of the more fun
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: matchups of the entire tournament. All right, for Simon Hunter,
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: for producer Matt Mitchell, for b J Cunningham. I am
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: Shad Nowman. This is Part one of the March Madness
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: game by game breakdown. We just did the Thursday games.
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: Don't forget Friday Games. A part two podcast released simultaneously.
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: Download the podcast from Apple, podcast, from Spotify, wherever you
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: get your podcast, Rate review, subscribe to give us five stars.
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: We don't care what you say. Feedback is a gift.
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: Until then, I love you.