Latest / Brian Thomas / Daniel Davis Deep Dive

Transcript

Daniel Davis Deep Dive · Brian Thomas

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: I always look forward to this time. We because get
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: to talk to Daniel Davis, retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: doing the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. Welcome back, Daniel Davis,
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: my friend. It's good to have you on the show.
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: There's always a pleasure to be here, Brian. Okay, so
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: you have two sides to an agreement. You're in a
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: ceasefire Israel on one side, i'mas on the other. Obviously,
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: devil's always in the details. But if you agree to
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: a ceasefire and you declare that a ceasefire is in place,
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: if you start shooting at each other and killing each other,
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: doesn't that definitionally mean there is not a ceasefire in place?
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Daniel. I'm struggling with this because everyone keeps talking about
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: keeping these ceasefire agreement together and we need to hold
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: keep onto the hold onto the ceasefire agreement. Seems to
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: me both sides just maybe capitulated. I don't know, Daniel,
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: That's why we have you. Welcome.
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that that does seem to be what's happening, because
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: it's it's definitely not just one side or the other.
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: Even President Trump himself and he was acknowledging some of
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: this said, I don't think it was the Humas leadership
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: per se. It may have just been some rogue elements.
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: And if that's the case, and I actually don't doubt
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: it that israelis I actually showed some video and it
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: would seemed pretty clear there was some armed men in
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: the strip that were heading towards some of their troops.
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: But then their response was I think completely out of
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: proportion of anything. They bombed all kinds of other areas
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: of the strip, killed sixty people, not just the ones
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: who did the killing. And if someone fires in it
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: in a violation of the ceasefire, then by all means
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: to go after them because it's authorized according to the
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: rules of engagement. But you can't go after somebody else.
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: It's not even related to that because the prompt's probably right.
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: It probably wasn't the Hummas because the organization it self
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: has no motivation to do this because it can only
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: be bad for them. But there are some out of
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: control elements, as there were on ten to seven. By
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: the way, it was not all Hamas. It was some
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: out of control elements that killed a majority of the
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: non military people. So this has been an enduring problem
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: over there and one of the things that they're going
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: to have to get a handle on.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: So it's just reflective of the fact that Hamas is
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: not the cohesive, connected organization that they're presented to the
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: world as I mean, I joked about this, I think
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: last week when you and I talked. If you're familiar
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: with the movie Monty Python Life of Brian, they have
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: all these splitter organizations. Every single one of them doesn't
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: want the Romans, you know, this is in Jesus's times,
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: but they can't get along together. So we have various
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: elements who all hate Israel, let's say, but they're not
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: necessarily beneath the Hamas controlled umbrella, so they're free to
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: roam about and do whatever the hell they want.
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: Well, that's a good part of it, because there is
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: for sure widespread hatred of Israel inside the strip, and frankly,
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: it's not hard to understand why when the whole place
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: has been turned into a moonscape and everybody has lost
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: their home and their way of life, etc. And that's
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: just an you can't escape that kind of an outcome
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: when that's what happens for two years. But the problem
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: is that they're not, you know, this monolithic group. And
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: also you have inside this is also not surprising. You
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: have a lot of the Palestine and people absolutely in
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: sense and hate Hamas more than they hate Israel because
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: they realize that until this group agrees to stop and
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: leave the place, they are going to continue to be attacked.
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: And they can blame Israel for dropping the bombs, and
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: there's some credit or there's some credibility to that, but
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: it's also true and they recognize it that as long
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: as Hamas is resisting, they're the ones who are paying
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: the price. So they're frankly sick of all the combatants
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: and they want them all out.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: Well, recognizing that we have this you know, splitter for
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: this faction issue maybe going on. They also are having
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: a problem finding or delivering the deceased hostages, and Hamas
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: keeps saying, listen, we're trying. We just don't know where
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: all of them are. And I think you had made
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: the point last week, and it's an excellent one. You know,
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: since everything has been bombed, it is certainly possible that
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: some of these hostages are buried beneath rubble somewhere, and
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: Hamas doesn't necessarily know where they are. But even if
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: they do, how to get them out.
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: Right, and they apparently do know where most of them,
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: maybe even all of them are, because I know where
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: they were held, But there continues to be a very
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: difficult situation. And listen, there's again no motivation for Hamas
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: to hold off on this. They gained literally nothing from
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: this once they gave the last of the living hostages back,
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: that was the end of any kind of leverage that
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: they had. So there's no motivation to hold this back.
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: And even the International Committee of the Red Cross has validated
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: from within the Strip that these places where these remaining
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: hostages are are literally buried under buildings that the Israeli
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: defense forces have dropped over the two years, etc. So
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: they've got to bring in heavy equipment that they've got
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: to have a peaceful situation so that they can come
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: in and excavate these areas, and it's just going to
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: take some time.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: There's clearly going to need to be like a post
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: World War two rebuilding kind of thing going on. That's
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: going to require leadership and some sort of independent force
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: that can substitute itself in the place of the Hamas leadership.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: If I can use that term loosely. Hamas has to
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: move out. Some acceptable force is going to have to
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: be there. What do you think is going to be
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: acceptable to the Palaestinian people living in Gaza? Clearly Israel
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: running that is not going to work for them. They're
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: going to want some sort of maybe perhaps international body.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: What do you think is going to come from this, Daniel?
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: This is the absolute biggest issue that has to be
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: overcome now for there ever to be any peace here
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: at all. Everybody said Trump in fact, it was talking about,
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: you know, peace in the Middle East and all that,
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: and signed that Charmel shak Egypt, et cetera. But all
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: that was signed. There was phase one, which is basically
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: a ceasefire and an exchange of hostages on both sides,
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: and that has been completed. All of the hard part
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: that Phase two and beyond, which is substantial, hasn't even
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: been negotiated yet. So none of those issues have been
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: accepted or resolved by the two sides. And it's not
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: even just what the Palastinian people will accept on their
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: it's what the Israeli forces will accept either, and they
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: both have to accept it. And that is really really
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: hard to imagine how both sides are going to find
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: somebody they can accept on a long term negotia leadership.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Well, is it possible that leaders from the countries who've
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: entered into the Abraham Accords or at least leaning toward
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: maybe entertaining that notion of let's work collectively. Let's have
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: our differences, but let's work collectively for our economic benefit.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: That seems to me too. You could get a draw
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: from various Arab countries in the region that could successfully
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: manage the situation. Might be at there's.
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: Two separate things at place here, and you're one hundred
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: percent right on that. In fact, in the news just
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: this morning, Egypt has said that they would send a
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: contingent of up to four thousand along with Indonesia, and
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: I can't remember the other two countries. There's four countries.
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: Azerbaijan might have been one of the other ones, or
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: maybe it was our Menia. Sorry to get those confused sometimes,
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: but those those countries have said, yes, we'll do the
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: interim stabilization force. What is going to bring initial peace
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: to the place, And that's completely separate from who's going
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: to govern the Gauza strip from the Palestinian side on
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: a go forward basis, And as you may know, that's
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: one of the big sticking points for the Israeli side
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: because many in the government don't want there to be
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: any kind of permanent residents of the Palacinian enclave. They
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: still harbored the idea that we want to get them
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: all out, So having them agree to whoever's going to
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: be there is one of the most difficult things that has.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: To be negotiating, and I of course understand the challenges
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: that presents. But if you were if you found this
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: acceptable peacekeeping force that could stabilize the region, you could
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: maybe sometime down the road establish enough peace and enough
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: you know, stability to maybe have an election.
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: Well, yeah, and for sure that's going to end up happening.
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: You may recall that did happen in two thousand and five,
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: which is when Hamas was initially elected, and then everything
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: broke down after that, and we had, of course the
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: two thousand and six war in Lebanon, which then had
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: ramifications inside the strip, and then Hamas quit having elections
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: after that, right, people didn't get any more choices after that.
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: That will certainly happen in the future here, But there
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: is additional issues beyond those really hard ones, like what
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: about the region, Because Israel wants to expand the Abraham courts.
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: Trump wants to expand the Abraham courts, but the regions,
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: the countries in the regions say for that to happen,
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: like Saudi Arabia, the kingpin of all this, they say,
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: there has to be some kind of Palestinian state, which
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: Israel still adamantly opposed to. So the region, the countries
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: in the region absolutely do want and they have been
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: emphatic about saying we want peace throughout the region with Israel,
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: but it has to be a mutual piece.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: And there again is one of the big difficulties. Well,
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: I think we'll be living with this reality for a while.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Daniel Davis ain't going to solve itself between now and
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: next Tuesday. I'm sure about that, dam Thank you so,
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: Daniel Davis. We cannot have a conversation without addressing the
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: current status Russia and Ukraine. I thought I had seen
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: earlier in this week or very recently that Trump basically
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: told Zelunski, dude, you're gonna have to give up some
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: land to negotiate a peace on this. I know a
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: Zelunski doesn't want to do that. But it sounded also
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: like the idea of US giving them Tomahawk missile is
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: something that you and I both agree on. Bad idea.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: That's not going to happen. So where are we with
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Russia and Ukraine? Daniel Davis, Yeah, that's definitely not going
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: to happen. Trump unambiguously said that. I don't know why
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: he ever entertained it, because in the first of last week,
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: even before you and I visited last Tuesday, he said
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: I might, I might just give them up, and then
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: on Wednesday he said, yeah, I'm not going to do that,
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: So that was pretty clear to his Zelensky.
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: I guess he was just posturing. But the bottom line
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: is now Zelensky's going back and he's still trying to
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: get with his European friends to find other things to
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: give him, etcetera. While they're looking for ways to increase
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: a nineteenth sanctions package. Don't know why they didn't recognize
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: the first eighteen failed, but somehow they think maybe this
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: one will. But in terms of the bigger meeting that
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: was agreed to by Trump with Putin, there's supposed to
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: be a ministerial meeting between serogate Lavrov and Rocker Rubio
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: and then Legy was going to be a Trump a
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: Putin meeting in Hungary if they come about. And as
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: of this morning, there was some contentious conversation reporting between
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: Rubio and Lavrov because they're still pretty far apart on
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: what the two sides we'll both agree to. So this
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: is no looking like it's going to be solved anytime soon.
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: By next Tuesday.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Either we'll be talking about it next Tuesday. Then Daniel
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: Davis Deep Dive wherever you get your podcast, find Daniel
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: Davis doing what he does throughout the week. And you know,
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: I can't thank you enough. I love the time you
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: get to spend another day together, Daniel. It's truly informative,
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: and obviously you're pretty good at explaining some complex stuff
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: in a very easy to understand manner, and I truly
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: appreciate that. Until next week, sir, have a wonderful week.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: My friend. Blame to you, my friend. See you next Tuesday.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Eighty forty right now fifty five kr CD Talks