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Friendly Fire So Republicans Lost... Now What · The Matt Walsh Show

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  Speaker 2: Again, that's 800-575-1753.
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  Speaker 1: Tax relief advocates, real solutions for real people. I thought
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  Speaker 1: that it was going to be, you know, like a
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  Speaker 1: punch in the face.
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  Speaker 3: And actually it was like, being kicked directly in the
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: crotch repeatedly by a robot.
• 1:02
  Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah.
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  Speaker 5: You, Drew.
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  Speaker 6: No, I think, you know, I always feel that hope
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  Speaker 6: is a better strategy than despair. So I thought I
• 1:11
  Speaker 6: left open the possibility that things might go well or
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  Speaker 6: might go less badly than I thought. This is worse
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  Speaker 6: than my worst expectations. I thought we were going to
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  Speaker 6: get a 50, you know, this is going to be bad.
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  Speaker 5: We laugh so we don't cry.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
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  Speaker 5: Okay, Walsh, how bad was it?
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  Speaker 2: But also, oh. I.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, I was expecting it to be bad. I'm always
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: expecting everything to be bad.
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  Speaker 2: And I usually am right.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: So that's one way to ensure that you're usually right,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: is just to expect everything to not be good, because
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  Speaker 1: it usually isn't.
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  Speaker 2: But I didn't think.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, look, Texas flipping entirely blue was not something
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  Speaker 1: that I thought was going to happen.
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  Speaker 6: Yeah, Kansas.
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  Speaker 2: So it was even worse than I thought.
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  Speaker 1: And listen, if there's any consolation in all this, and
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  Speaker 1: I think you get a little desperate searching for consolation
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  Speaker 1: in these moments.
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  Speaker 1: So this is, and this is consolation that cuts both ways. However,
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: things change quickly. We do know that. And so, I mean,
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: you look at, look at 2024. I mean, we were
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  Speaker 1: in this, we were here and the jubilation that we
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: all felt.
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  Speaker 2: And that many people in the country felt 2024. And
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  Speaker 2: you look at how quickly just This thing just fell
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  Speaker 2: off of a cliff. Collapsed.
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  Speaker 1: So what that tells you is that it could happen
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  Speaker 1: the other way. I mean, this moment, this blue tsunami,
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  Speaker 1: and it feels like the Democrats have taken a stranglehold
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  Speaker 1: on the country, and they have Texas, and they have everything.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, it's possible that in 2028, we're going to
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  Speaker 1: look back on 2026 and be like, that feels like
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  Speaker 1: it was 200 years ago.
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  Speaker 4: Yes, it always looks darkest just before it goes pitch black.
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  Speaker 4: This is friendly fire.
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  Speaker 6: You know, I think we have to go back, though.
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  Speaker 6: This is a huge transitional moment, and it's going to
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  Speaker 6: last another 10 years at least. This is the moment,
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  Speaker 6: first of all, my generation is dying. I'm afraid they
• 3:14
  Speaker 6: might take me with them, but hopefully they'll leave me behind.
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  Speaker 2: Who knows?
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  Speaker 6: But I think there's going to be realignment. In moments
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  Speaker 6: like this, radicals show up on both sides. I hate
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  Speaker 6: to make the comparison because I don't think we're in
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  Speaker 6: that situation, but this is what happened in the 30s
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  Speaker 6: in Europe. When there's this opening in the middle. The
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  Speaker 6: socialists rise on one side, and the fascists rise on
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  Speaker 6: the other side. In our country, they're both the same people.
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  Speaker 6: But still, that's the thing that happens. And usually, a
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  Speaker 6: center reforms. And how it reforms is it reforms around
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  Speaker 6: an individual. An individual comes along. The people are not
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  Speaker 6: going to give you a vision. The people cannot give
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  Speaker 6: you a vision. Leaders give you a vision. The leaders
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  Speaker 6: can only lead the people where they'll go. But it's
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  Speaker 6: the leaders who.
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  Speaker 2: Provide the vision.
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  Speaker 6: Trump's vision was too chaotic, too... you know, centered on himself,
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  Speaker 6: but it was urgently important. He was God sent. And
• 4:07
  Speaker 6: as we know, God sends the weirdest people when he
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  Speaker 6: wants to help out. But I mean, he broke, we
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  Speaker 6: talked about the border that he fixed. We've talked about
• 4:17
  Speaker 6: other things that he did, but the main thing he did,
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  Speaker 6: and if he did nothing else, he would still be
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  Speaker 6: an important man in a good way, is he broke
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  Speaker 6: the stranglehold on speech. And he did it with our help.
• 4:28
  Speaker 6: You know, he did it with the help of the
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  Speaker 6: new media, but he broke the stranglehold on speech. And
• 4:31
  Speaker 6: that means that a lot of people are saying things
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  Speaker 6: that they couldn't say before. So you have people making
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  Speaker 6: jokes about retards again. I think that's a good thing.
• 4:39
  Speaker 6: I don't think it's a bad thing. I think we
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  Speaker 6: should always be joking about everything. But you also have
• 4:43
  Speaker 6: people saying, hey, socialism might be a good idea. And
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  Speaker 6: you have these 20-year-olds who don't know crap from Shinola.
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  Speaker 6: They're sitting around going like, yeah, socialism might be a
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  Speaker 6: good idea. And so we're going to go through this stuff.
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  Speaker 6: It's going to go back and forth. But you hope
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  Speaker 6: that the center reformed. around somebody that we can tolerate
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  Speaker 6: who loves America.
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  Speaker 3: I think that the biggest thing that's happening, and I
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  Speaker 3: think this is, you know, across all parties right now,
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  Speaker 3: is that President Trump was and remains and has always
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  Speaker 3: been a gigantic middle finger to whatever it is people
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  Speaker 3: were pissed off at.
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  Speaker 5: In 2016, it was.
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  Speaker 3: Just, we don't like Hillary Clinton. We don't like Barack Obama.
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  Speaker 3: We don't like what's going on. Here's a giant middle finger.
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  Speaker 3: He had no policies to speak of in 2016. I mean,
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  Speaker 3: he was literally on pretty much every side of every issue.
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  Speaker 3: And then he sort of formed a series of policies,
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  Speaker 3: almost by happenstance and because of the people surrounding him,
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  Speaker 3: and largely because of oppositionality to Democrats coming after him
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  Speaker 3: and him reacting to that. And then from 2020 to 2024,
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  Speaker 3: you got the backlash against Trump, one, as the empire
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  Speaker 3: strikes back. And then you got sort of the return
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  Speaker 3: of the Jedi moment here, but the story just, it
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  Speaker 3: never ends that way. And so it was a rejection
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  Speaker 3: of the rejection of the rejection. And at no point
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  Speaker 3: has anyone in the last, I would say, maybe 30
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  Speaker 3: years in American politics provided a sort of cohesive version
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  Speaker 3: of what our politics ought to look like, how we
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  Speaker 3: ought to approach politics. It feels like a grab bag
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  Speaker 3: of policies built around a personality.
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  Speaker 5: And you're right.
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  Speaker 3: The great sadness of my life, it truly is the
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  Speaker 3: saddest of my life, is the recognition as I came
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  Speaker 3: into my 40s that people don't follow policy. They follow people.
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  Speaker 3: It's a very, very sad thing. They don't follow ideas.
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  Speaker 3: They follow humans. And that's a difficult thing to reconcile
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  Speaker 3: with what we do every day where we're talking about policy.
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  Speaker 3: and ideas, but that's why I think it's easy to
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  Speaker 3: over-read an election like this and read it in a
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  Speaker 3: wide variety of ways, right? People like me, right, where
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  Speaker 3: I was supportive of the initial Iran war, even though
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  Speaker 3: I was not supportive of the MOU and the delay
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  Speaker 3: in the Iran war after April. I'm going to say, well,
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  Speaker 3: it was the tariffs. And people who hated the Iran
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  Speaker 3: war are going to say, the tariffs were great, it
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  Speaker 3: was the Iran war. And in reality, it was like
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  Speaker 3: all the things and none of the things in a
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  Speaker 3: certain sense. It was all the things, and it was
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  Speaker 3: the perception that President Trump is disconnected from the American
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  Speaker 3: public in a way that he was not in 2015, 2016,
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  Speaker 3: and that he's sort of lost touch with the public
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  Speaker 3: that wanted to give him the ability to do the things.
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  Speaker 3: And that's why, you know, what I think is that
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  Speaker 3: it's not so easily corrected. Because I don't think it's
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  Speaker 3: a matter of just you pull this lever, you change
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  Speaker 3: this policy and suddenly your popularity springs back into being.
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  Speaker 3: I'm struggling to think of a time When a president
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  Speaker 3: dipped into the 30s and then rose back up into
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  Speaker 3: the 50s, certainly this has not happened in the last
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  Speaker 3: half century. And so what does that mean? It means
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  Speaker 3: what we're really talking about here, which is what comes next.
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  Speaker 3: And that's the open question is really sort of what
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  Speaker 3: comes next. And part of what's going to define that
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  Speaker 3: is how crazy the Democrats go. If there was one
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  Speaker 3: silver lining here, it's that the Democratic victory was so
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  Speaker 3: overwhelming and so large that I'm not sure they can
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  Speaker 3: talk themselves into moderation.
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  Speaker 5: I think they're going to go for.
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  Speaker 2: I'll make a.
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  Speaker 4: Prediction on what comes next. I don't think that Trump
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  Speaker 4: is done as the leader of the GOP.
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  Speaker 6: No.
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  Speaker 4: I think he remains the leader. I think he'll remain
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  Speaker 4: the leader through 2028 and even after. I think that
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  Speaker 4: he can plausibly at least say, I wasn't on the ballot,
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  Speaker 4: and so don't blame me. Blame these other guys. And
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  Speaker 4: you can say, well, he was campaigning for them, and well,
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  Speaker 4: it was your policies. I think he will credibly be
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  Speaker 4: able to say that. So I think he's the figure.
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  Speaker 4: He still sucks all the oxygen out of the room.
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  Speaker 4: I think there was this, in those early days, in
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  Speaker 4: the kind of inchoate crazy days of 2016, everyone said
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  Speaker 4: people just voted for Trump for his personality, not for
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  Speaker 4: his policies. But he did differ from the GOP. When
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  Speaker 4: the whole GOP was ideologically free trade, he was proposing protectionism.
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  Speaker 4: When the whole GOP was in favor of legal migration,
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: he was calling for immigration restriction and calling migrants rapists
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  Speaker 4: and murderers, and that resonated. So I still, I do
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  Speaker 4: think he offered this policy alternative. in a way that
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  Speaker 4: was more coherent than people give him credit for. So
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  Speaker 4: I think he continues to hold that. I just wonder
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  Speaker 4: if there's a structural problem now. You see it in
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  Speaker 4: the UK, too. How many prime ministers does the UK have?
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: Like a billion in the last 20 years. You think
• 8:52
  Speaker 4: in the United States, we had a Democrat House of
• 8:55
  Speaker 4: Representatives for 40 years. Now it seems to switch back
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  Speaker 4: and forth all the time. We had Ronald Reagan win
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: two terms, followed by a third term for George H.W.
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  Speaker 6: Bush.
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: Now we go from the end of Obama to Trump
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  Speaker 4: for a term, then Biden for a term, then Trump
• 9:10
  Speaker 4: for a term. And right now it's not looking very
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: good for the Republican in 28. I wonder if there's
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: just this deeper structural issue where we're not getting what
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: we want. What we want is cohesive societies that are
• 9:20
  Speaker 4: high trust with economic flourishing that we got used to
• 9:23
  Speaker 4: at the end of the 20th century. And that just
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: isn't happening anymore. Anywhere in the Anglosphere, really anywhere in
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: the West, And I just wonder if political instability is
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: the inevitable consequence for the foreseeable future.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: I think, first of all, Trump, by default, will remain
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  Speaker 1: the leader of the Republican Party for now. But if
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  Speaker 1: that remains the case into 2020 and beyond, as you said,
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  Speaker 1: then the Republican Party has no future. You know, the
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  Speaker 1: leader of the Republican Party cannot be in the future,
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: an 80-year-old lame.
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  Speaker 2: Duck unpopular president. It just can't be.
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  Speaker 1: So the process now has to be finding who the
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  Speaker 1: new leader is going to be.
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  Speaker 2: To be.
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  Speaker 1: And as I said in the other show, I mean,
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  Speaker 1: even if we had performed well during the midterms, that
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  Speaker 1: would still be the case. But as to people follow
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  Speaker 1: ideas and not people, I think the answer is kind
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  Speaker 1: of both. I think people follow people who have ideas
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  Speaker 1: they believe in. Um, but the ideas are part of it.
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  Speaker 1: It's not just the person. And so Trump in 2016,
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: people were rallying around. Yeah, there was, there was the personality.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: There was Trump himself. the blustery personality and all of that.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: He was funny and all these things, and he could
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: speak extemporaneously, and the rallies were really entertaining. But he
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: did have very simple, understandable, intuitive ideas, drain the swamp,
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: build the wall. Those are probably the two big ideas
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: people rallied behind. And so it was this guy with
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: these simple, understandable, eloquent in their simplicity good ideas that
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: people were rallying around.
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  Speaker 3: And I think I totally agree with that, but I
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: think that the problem is trying to abstract Trump. So
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: you're right that it's, it's a combination of the person,
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: but the person is a combination with their own ideas,
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: which is why Trump is sort of a one of
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  Speaker 3: one and any attempt to either abstract a philosophy from
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  Speaker 3: him and then map it onto another candidate is, is
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  Speaker 3: likely to fail. And, and, and so that's going to
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: be the question for the next person who is the
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  Speaker 3: leader of the Republican party or of a conservative movement.
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  Speaker 3: in not only what policies are Americans likely to believe,
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  Speaker 3: but what are, who is the person who best reflects
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  Speaker 3: that in his own personage? Trump was, because he was
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: a throbbing middle finger, the ones that tended to reflect
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: were the things you weren't allowed to say, right? Don't
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: open the borders wide and just let tons of people
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: in here. That's bad. You shouldn't do that. Or maybe
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: we shouldn't trans the kids, right? Like all those things
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: where you would say sort of the obvious thing that
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: was transgressive, that united with Trump as a human. And
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: I don't know if there's anyone in the Republican Party
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: who's sort of capable of capturing that in the same way.
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: And so I think that what you're getting is a
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: bunch of kind of nerds in the back room trying
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: to recreate fake Trump from a bunch of.
• 11:55
  Speaker 5: Like spare parts. And I just don't, I don't know
• 11:57
  Speaker 5: that that's.
• 11:57
  Speaker 4: Going to work.
• 11:58
  Speaker 6: But you know, there's an expression in England, come at
• 12:00
  Speaker 6: the hour, come with a man. And I think, you know,
• 12:03
  Speaker 6: it's really Tolstoyan. It's really about Leo Tolstoy. You know,
• 12:06
  Speaker 6: like Tolstoy said that men do nothing. It's the age
• 12:10
  Speaker 6: that raises the man. That's not true. There's a way
• 12:14
  Speaker 6: that both things happen at once. A Napoleon comes along
• 12:17
  Speaker 6: when a Napoleon is called for. You know, and I
• 12:20
  Speaker 6: used to tell Andrew Breitbart, he used to say I
• 12:22
  Speaker 6: would be nobody if the Internet hadn't been invented. And
• 12:24
  Speaker 6: I'd say Fred Astaire would be nobody if the American
• 12:27
  Speaker 6: musical hadn't hit that point when he was dancing. And
• 12:29
  Speaker 6: so I think that that's that's the thing you're looking for.
• 12:31
  Speaker 6: You can never see it coming. Nobody saw Trump coming.
• 12:34
  Speaker 6: Nobody saw him coming. And, you know, the one thing
• 12:37
  Speaker 6: I disagree with you about, though, Trump has been saying
• 12:39
  Speaker 6: a lot of the things he's saying now for 50 years.
• 12:43
  Speaker 6: I mean, you know, that we're getting bad deals. We
• 12:45
  Speaker 6: need to make better deals. We need to get rid
• 12:46
  Speaker 6: of NAFTA.
• 12:47
  Speaker 5: I'm not disagreeing with that.
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: The only point that I've made about his policies is
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: that when you try to, say, look at tonight, which
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: was a disaster area, and you say, okay, let's look
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: at the things that made him unpopular. Everybody is now
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: going to pick and choose the thing they like.
• 13:00
  Speaker 6: Of course.
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: It wasn't that. I agree with that point. I personally
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: don't like this thing. It must have been that thing
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: that made it happen. And that's why I say, like,
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: in the end, the way that voters think about things is,
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: I just don't like this.
• 13:13
  Speaker 5: Like, all of this. Like, I just don't like all
• 13:15
  Speaker 5: of this.
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: And so, sitting there and sort of, you know, pulling
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: strand out by strand and being like, okay, I'm gonna
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: pull out this piece of the Jenga tower and I'm
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: gonna put this piece back in. That's not the way
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: that actual politics works, which is something that Trump always understood, right? Like,
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: that is something that Trump understood maybe better than any
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: politician in my lifetime, is that you can't, that politics
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: is not the art of stacking Jenga blocks. It's the
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: art of just being all of the things at once.
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, I did wonder, because we've talked about
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: the Iran war, obviously, a lot tonight. One part we
• 13:40
  Speaker 4: haven't touched on, yes, okay, the Iran War raised oil
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: prices and diesel prices, and it has all these downstream effects,
• 13:47
  Speaker 4: but there's this kind of semiotic aspect to it, which is,
• 13:50
  Speaker 4: I wonder if voters saw in the very fact of
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: the Iran War an image of the Iraq War, which
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: America still has this political trauma. To what degree did
• 14:01
  Speaker 4: that just flip something?
• 14:03
  Speaker 6: And Afghanistan, you know, you forget, like 20 years in Afghanistan,
• 14:06
  Speaker 6: and then it ends in this disaster. I mean, when
• 14:09
  Speaker 6: I went over to Afghanistan, I came back and said,
• 14:12
  Speaker 6: this is terrible. We've got to get out of here.
• 14:13
  Speaker 6: There's no country here to save and all this. The
• 14:16
  Speaker 6: Iraq war was overstepping, even though I thought many good
• 14:19
  Speaker 6: things actually came out of that, weirdly enough. But I
• 14:22
  Speaker 6: still thought, you know, we got hit really badly and
• 14:25
  Speaker 6: it was traumatic. And I think we overreacted. I think
• 14:28
  Speaker 6: we thought we could do more. You know, the W
• 14:31
  Speaker 6: idea that we were going to go over and turn,
• 14:34
  Speaker 6: you know, the Middle East into, into flowering democracies, which
• 14:38
  Speaker 6: is just absurd. And we were so upset and we
• 14:41
  Speaker 6: were so angry with what had happened. I guess it
• 14:44
  Speaker 6: made sense to follow that. But these are the sorts
• 14:46
  Speaker 6: of things that do have to turn back. If America
• 14:48
  Speaker 6: first means isolationism, you can forget it. You can forget it.
• 14:52
  Speaker 6: We're an empire. We're never gonna be isolationist ever again.
• 14:54
  Speaker 6: That's not happening ever again until we're not an empire anymore.
• 14:57
  Speaker 6: And I think, so you gotta forget that. But really
• 15:01
  Speaker 6: we need strategic alliances where people do the things we
• 15:04
  Speaker 6: need them to do. We need to be a new
• 15:07
  Speaker 6: kind of empire. We've never wanted to conquer people. We've
• 15:10
  Speaker 6: never taken over their countries, but we need to at
• 15:13
  Speaker 6: least know that they will go out and fight for
• 15:15
  Speaker 6: the things that we care about. And one of the
• 15:17
  Speaker 6: things that is truly dangerous right now is I think
• 15:20
  Speaker 6: we're losing Europe. I think Europe is dead, and I
• 15:22
  Speaker 6: think really it's just being devoured by the creatures that
• 15:27
  Speaker 6: come and devour the dead. But then we have to
• 15:29
  Speaker 6: know who is going to stand for us against Russia
• 15:32
  Speaker 6: and Europe against China in the China Seas, and against
• 15:36
  Speaker 6: Iran in the Middle East.
• 15:38
  Speaker 5: I think all of that's true.
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: I also think that there's a fundamental disconnect in the
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: American mind as to what we think is possible in war,
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: how it's fought, and how you win. And so in
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: the same way, I think this is also happening, and
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: this is sort of your question about systems and the
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: fact that we keep bouncing party to party. The case
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: I've been making for a long time on this show
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: and elsewhere is that the reason we're bouncing party to
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: party is because you've got a bunch of politicians who
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: are running their mouth about and delivering promises that no
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: human can keep in the system that is built to
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: not keep those promises. Meaning we created a system of
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: checks and balances to prevent specifically harsh, fast-moving action.
• 16:14
  Speaker 4: I'll go even further, though, because this is a very
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: important point. The politicians are promising they're going to fix
• 16:19
  Speaker 4: the migration problem, but you can't fix the migration problem
• 16:22
  Speaker 4: when you have a welfare state with zillions of dollars
• 16:24
  Speaker 4: of entitlements and a below-the-place... Correct.
• 16:26
  Speaker 6: This is what's happening in France.
• 16:28
  Speaker 5: Yeah, so you just can't have all the things at once.
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: And so I feel like the same thing happens with
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: regard to the Iran war. And I thought that President
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: Trump had a fundamental... different understanding because of his opposition
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: to the Iraq war, which is, as you say, a
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: major factor in why he won in 2016, which was
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: at the time, a very taboo position was that this
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: is why I, when he went in and did, we
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: did an Iran and he.
• 16:48
  Speaker 5: Said like, I'm going to move fast. I'm going to
• 16:50
  Speaker 5: break things.
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: And then I'm going to get out, which is essentially
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: what he did with midnight hammer the year before I
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: was figuring that it was going to be a campaign
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: that was much along those lines. And I think that,
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: you know, the, the reality is that if you're trying
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: to deliver an outcome, like say, for example, the toppling
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: of regime, which was always, I think the sort of
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: Sato Voce thing you're not supposed to say.
• 17:07
  Speaker 5: That we were trying to do, but we weren't really
• 17:08
  Speaker 5: trying to do, but we were kind of trying to do.
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: Like, if you're going to do that, then you have
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: to be actually respectful of the way that certain events
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: come about and what your actual goal is. And if
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: you don't do that, the American people are not wrong
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: to be disappointed in you for not achieving all of that.
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: And so, you know, to me, that's the mistake of the, like,
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: if you're going to do it, win. Move fast and win.
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: By the way, I apply that critique to literally every
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: ally of the United States as well. This is my critique, actually,
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: of Netanyahu in Israel, is if you're going to go,
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: go hard, go fast, and win, and don't take two
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: years to drag it out. But the same thing is
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: true with regard to this.
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: So there's a question on the consequences here of Palsy Kalashiev.
• 17:43
  Speaker 4: Will Trump be impeached and removed from office? 31% yes.
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: To me... Yes to the first part, no to the second. Yeah,
• 17:51
  Speaker 4: so I mean, that seems like easy money.
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: The only way that you could possibly see something like
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: that happening is if they really have a major corruption
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: scandal and you get a bunch of Republicans who are
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: now scared to death that they're about to lose their
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: seats in a swing state.
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: But who are you going to get?
• 18:05
  Speaker 5: This is, yes, there aren't that many swing states.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: And if Susan Collins goes down, I don't know if
• 18:09
  Speaker 4: we've had an update on Murkowski.
• 18:11
  Speaker 5: So you'd probably pick up Murkowski.
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 18:12
  Speaker 5: Or 56.
• 18:13
  Speaker 4: You know, Cornyn, had Cornyn held on in Texas, you
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: could see him being swayed on something like that, but
• 18:18
  Speaker 4: he's out. You know, a lot of these guys are out.
• 18:20
  Speaker 5: So Johnson's not going to do it.
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: No chance.
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: So I just think.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: Not to mention they removed Trump. They're putting Vance in office.
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah. They're giving the presidency to Vance. Yeah, right.
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: I don't think they'd be thrilled about that. Other one
• 18:31
  Speaker 4: from Kalshi, will Trump resign during this term?
• 18:34
  Speaker 6: No.
• 18:35
  Speaker 4: 27% chance.
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: That feels like easy money. Let's run that production market
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: and take the under on that.
• 18:41
  Speaker 5: No way.
• 18:42
  Speaker 4: So we've got Decision Desk HQ has called the Minnesota
• 18:45
  Speaker 4: race for Peggy Flanagan, the Democrat, defeating Michelle Tafoya. So
• 18:51
  Speaker 4: just a reminder for people who forget Peggy Flanagan, She
• 18:54
  Speaker 4: was the one who wore the t-shirt threatening transgender terrorism
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: against all normal people. We are talking about actual Antifa
• 19:05
  Speaker 4: levels of now elected.
• 19:06
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: Again, I think the biggest thing here is that Democrats
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: will undoubtedly overreach. And so all of the pessimism of
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: today is based on the fact that tonight was just
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: poor shit.
• 19:16
  Speaker 5: It was just terrible.
• 19:17
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: But, like, I've been, we've all been around long enough
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: to remember several, as you said earlier, Matt, to remember
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: several cycles of this. I remember in 2004, I thought
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: Republicans would never lose again. And by 2006, Nancy Pelosi
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: was Speaker. And then I remember that Barack Obama... in
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: 2012 wins. And by 2016, Donald Trump is president. And
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: so it feels like we're never going to win again.
• 19:37
  Speaker 5: And that's not true. We will win again.
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: It's just going to take the Democrats completely going off
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: the reservation.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: Well, here's the problem with that. The problem, and it's true,
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: they'll definitely overstep. The hope then is that they will
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: face a political consequence for it. But I'm not sure
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: if that's true because the really dark reality here is that, look,
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: what have Democrats and what has the left done for
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: the last year? I mean, they have been more extreme
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: than we've ever seen them. They have been openly celebrating
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: the death of One particular conservative, Charlie Kirk. The murder.
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: The murder, yes.
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: The murder of Charlie Kirk and calling for the deaths
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: of many more conservatives. And they've been doing that. And
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: apparently there is... So far, no political consequence for that whatsoever.
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: They've been awarded with this.
• 20:30
  Speaker 6: I think we're missing, though, I do think we're missing
• 20:32
  Speaker 6: this bigger movement. The West is moving to the right.
• 20:35
  Speaker 6: The West is moving to the right.
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: Could have fooled me tonight.
• 20:39
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I get it. But they're not voting. I don't
• 20:42
  Speaker 6: believe that they are voting for leftist policies. I believe
• 20:44
  Speaker 6: they're voting against what we have in this moment. And
• 20:47
  Speaker 6: if you look at, you know, Glenn Beck was the
• 20:49
  Speaker 6: guy who brought it up, which is what happened in Poland.
• 20:53
  Speaker 6: You know, the reason that happened in Poland, what happened
• 20:56
  Speaker 6: in France, I haven't heard anybody else say this, but
• 20:59
  Speaker 6: I know it's true, that what happened in France was
• 21:02
  Speaker 6: a reaction to the visit of Pope Leo. He came
• 21:05
  Speaker 6: and 800,000 people said mass in the symbol of the revolution,
• 21:09
  Speaker 6: the Place de la Concorde, and the left moved in
• 21:12
  Speaker 6: on these minor demonstrations and turn them into a riot
• 21:16
  Speaker 6: because they saw that there is a movement moving to
• 21:19
  Speaker 6: the right, moving toward religion, moving toward tradition. And I
• 21:22
  Speaker 6: think that that's what's happening in Poland. This was basically
• 21:26
  Speaker 6: a coup in Poland, which is not like Guatemala. It's
• 21:28
  Speaker 6: like Poland. And they know that the people are moving
• 21:32
  Speaker 6: to the right. They're doing everything they can to shut
• 21:34
  Speaker 6: down the AFD in Germany, to shut down any Marine
• 21:38
  Speaker 6: Le Pen in France.
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: Is that happening here in the United States?
• 21:42
  Speaker 6: What's that?
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: It's about to. Is the United States moving to the right?
• 21:45
  Speaker 6: Yes, yes.
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: What are the indicators of that? It's moving to the
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: right in terms.
• 21:48
  Speaker 6: Of the populist right, the populist right. I was talking- But.
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: What are the indicators that we're moving to the right?
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: Because- The indicators I see is everything's pointing.
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: To the left. No, I don't- Not everything, but mostly.
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: I think this is an interregnum, and I think the
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: best historical analog right now is the recent history of
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: Great Britain. So I think that what you watched in
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: Great Britain was the conservatives were in power for a
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: long time, and then they got sclerotic and not particularly
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: good at their jobs, and then labor- radical labor, wiped
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: them out, wiped them out. And within a year, labor
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: was radically unpopular. And now the conservatives and Nigel Farage
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: are on the rise again. And I think that that
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: is very likely to happen here. The real reason why
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: Democrats won tonight is because they don't have power. That's
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: the reason they won tonight. Because none of their policies
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: are being implemented. Right now, whoever is in power gets shellacked.
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: If people are pissed off, they punish the party in power.
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: And so this couldn't have happened, I think, in a
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: non-midterm election. In fact, it didn't happen in a non-midterm election.
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: That was two years ago. A midterm election is always
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: a referendum on the party in power. And because this
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: is a referendum on the Republicans and people are pissed off,
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: you get this. And maybe that referendum lasts on for
• 22:55
  Speaker 3: another couple of years and sweeps into Democratic term number
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: one for somebody in 28. But I have no faith
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: Like right now, if I had to put money on 28,
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: I'd put money on the Democrats. If I had to
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: put money on 32, I'm not sure that I'd put
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: money on the Democrats.
• 23:11
  Speaker 4: And it won't be worth anything at that point.
• 23:14
  Speaker 6: What you said before is really important. What people were
• 23:17
  Speaker 6: voting for in Britain again and again was stop bringing
• 23:20
  Speaker 6: in the immigrants. They can't stop bringing in the immigrants
• 23:22
  Speaker 6: because they need them to support the welfare state. Nobody
• 23:25
  Speaker 6: wants to give up the welfare state. So what we
• 23:27
  Speaker 6: need is a vision of what we do with the
• 23:28
  Speaker 6: welfare state. And I think I was talking again to
• 23:31
  Speaker 6: Henry Olson, who, by the way, really needs to be
• 23:33
  Speaker 6: talked to more. I think we should hire him, frankly.
• 23:36
  Speaker 6: But he's a brilliant guy. And one of the things
• 23:39
  Speaker 6: he invented, Donald Trump, before there was Donald Trump, he
• 23:42
  Speaker 6: said that the Republicans have forgotten that Ronald Reagan was
• 23:44
  Speaker 6: a man of the people. that he was a man
• 23:46
  Speaker 6: who actually supported a welfare state that would keep people
• 23:51
  Speaker 6: from falling through the cracks. And I asked him, so
• 23:54
  Speaker 6: what does that look like now? And he said, well,
• 23:56
  Speaker 6: it looks like reforming the welfare state so it takes
• 23:58
  Speaker 6: care of the truly needy and lets the rich take
• 24:00
  Speaker 6: care of themselves. I mean, I'm collecting Social Security. I
• 24:04
  Speaker 6: deserve it, I paid into it, but that's not the
• 24:07
  Speaker 6: way it should work. I mean, I don't need Social Security.
• 24:09
  Speaker 6: And I love it because it's just somebody sending me money,
• 24:12
  Speaker 6: but that's not right. We need to reform. We need
• 24:16
  Speaker 6: to stop talking about this ideal world where we get
• 24:19
  Speaker 6: rid of the welfare state because it's not going to happen.
• 24:21
  Speaker 6: We need to reform it.
• 24:22
  Speaker 4: I spoke to a billionaire about 10 years ago, and
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: he was complaining about this same problem. He said, every
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: single month... The government sends me a check for $ 700
• 24:33
  Speaker 4: because I'm a parent. He had younger kids. He was,
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: you know, he was an active guy. Fifth one. He
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: sends me a check for $ 700. I'm a billionaire. I
• 24:43
  Speaker 4: spend $ 700 a month on tennis shoes. I do not
• 24:45
  Speaker 4: need the government to send me $ 700. Now, of course,
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: the left never wanted the entitlements to be means-tested. because
• 24:51
  Speaker 4: then it would make it a welfare program and it
• 24:53
  Speaker 4: would be easier to cut rather than one that we've
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: all paid into. So yes, look, all of these things
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: are going to be on the table. President Trump just
• 24:59
  Speaker 4: spoke to Fox News, said, first line, a part of
• 25:03
  Speaker 4: it was Iran. So this is Trump acknowledging, to my knowledge,
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: for the first time that Iran would play a role.
• 25:09
  Speaker 6: Well, he said he didn't care that it was going
• 25:10
  Speaker 6: to do this, but he said it was going to
• 25:11
  Speaker 6: do it, yeah.
• 25:12
  Speaker 4: A part of it was Iran, he says. I don't
• 25:14
  Speaker 4: think it was the war. So he says, a part
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: of it was Iran. Next sentence, I don't think it
• 25:18
  Speaker 4: was the war. I think it was the gas prices,
• 25:21
  Speaker 4: meaning the consequences of the war. I can work with
• 25:24
  Speaker 4: them on a lot of things, the Democrats, or the Iranians.
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: What's the difference?
• 25:28
  Speaker 4: Immigration is a big deal. This is President Trump saying
• 25:31
  Speaker 4: about the Democrats. A lot of Democrats have called me
• 25:34
  Speaker 4: in the last 20 minutes, actually. I've already spoken to
• 25:36
  Speaker 4: certain leaders in the Democrat Party. We will work with
• 25:39
  Speaker 4: the Democrats. I will consider doing whatever is good and
• 25:43
  Speaker 4: appropriate for the country.
• 25:45
  Speaker 6: Interesting.
• 25:46
  Speaker 5: He always makes this overture.
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: So he made this overture after he won in 2016
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: that he would actually work with the Democrats, and they
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: proceeded to slap him directly in the face.
• 25:54
  Speaker 5: Yes, yes. Like idiots, by the way.
• 25:55
  Speaker 6: But it was great for us.
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: No, they've learned nothing. And their base demands that they
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: not learn anything. And so it'll get bad again. By
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: the way, that analysis is not wrong. I mean, like,
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: the truth is when he says it's the war in Iran,
• 26:09
  Speaker 3: but it's not the war in Iran, it's the gas prices.
• 26:11
  Speaker 5: He's correct. I mean, the gas prices were at $ 2.
• 26:12
  Speaker 4: 50.
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: No one would give a crap, right? I mean, like, that's...
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: That's the reality. Just be a thing happening far away
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: that we don't really care very much about.
• 26:18
  Speaker 6: And it is a big deal in rural areas, the
• 26:20
  Speaker 6: gas prices. And that's where our strength is.
• 26:23
  Speaker 5: Of course.
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: And so, you know, again, when you look for the
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: really true, this would be like a normal evening, except
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: for the fact that a bunch of truly red states
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: that should not be in play now have to be
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: considered in play. And the map for Democrats in 2028
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: becomes a very, very wide map, right? That's the problem
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: is that for the Republicans, They basically had to run
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: it inside straight in the last several elections, right?
• 26:44
  Speaker 5: You got to win Arizona, Georgia. We all know the map.
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: They'd win Wisconsin and Michigan and two of the three, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania.
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: That's a very narrow map. And there weren't a lot
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: of other states that were opening up. Now, Democrats have
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: about 8,000 ways that they can win in 2020. If
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: Texas is open, if North Carolina is solidly Democrat, if
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: Ohio is open again, and Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania are all open,
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: Democrats have combos there that are just extraordinary. They have
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: like an extraordinary number of combos there. And that's, that's
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: the real danger for, for whoever decides to, to run
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: for the, and then this is put, listen, I don't
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: envy JD his position.
• 27:20
  Speaker 5: I really don't. I mean, that's, I was just.
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: Going to ask, what is your advice now for any
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: of the guys, whatever it is, four.
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: Or five guys.
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: I mean, so I think that there are certain guys
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: where it's like, they're only going to be able to
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: get the nomination if they run this time.
• 27:32
  Speaker 6: Right.
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: And there you're thinking about governor DeSantis in Florida who
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: already ran once. If he waits another four years, then
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: he's been out of office for too long and it's.
• 27:39
  Speaker 5: Not really relevant.
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: So Ron is going to run. The vice president, I
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: just don't see. I think that there is a not.
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: unintelligent play where he says, listen, you know, this is,
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: I've got a young family.
• 27:49
  Speaker 5: He makes an excuse. I've got a young family.
• 27:51
  Speaker 4: And he's so young.
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: He's a kid. He's a year older than I am.
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: He's younger than I am. He's a baby.
• 27:57
  Speaker 5: He's a kid.
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: And so he could easily, you know, again, we have
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: the Cal sheet numbers here saying that JD's the favorite
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: at 30% Rubio at 23 and DeSantis at 12.
• 28:06
  Speaker 5: You should absolutely short sell Rubio. Like Marco is not
• 28:09
  Speaker 5: going to run.
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: He's not going to run.
• 28:09
  Speaker 5: He's not going to run.
• 28:10
  Speaker 6: Why do you say that?
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: Because, because, Number one, 2028 is likely a poison chalice.
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: Number two, if he runs against J.D.
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: And J.D.
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: Runs and he loses to J.D., he's toast. Number three,
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: if J.D. wins the nomination, he could still pick.
• 28:24
  Speaker 5: Him as his VP.
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: J.D.
• 28:25
  Speaker 5: Could lose and he would still be the heir apparent.
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: Number four, if J.D. runs, loses, and doesn't pick him,
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: he could still be the heir apparent. So if you're Rubio,
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: every math ends with, I'm not going to run. But
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: if you're J.D., That's a very hard call because you
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: look at that map, you say, I'm running on the
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: back of a president whose endorsement makes me the guy.
• 28:44
  Speaker 5: But the only way I become the guy is with his.
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: Endorsement, and he has a 32% approval rating. And he's
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: got a bunch of policies I don't necessarily agree with
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: that I'm going to have to quasi-own but also quasi-separate from.
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: And the minute I separate from him, President Trump is
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: going to bop me on the head with a stick.
• 28:58
  Speaker 5: That is a rough road.
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: And so my, you know, I don't have, I wish
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: I had an easy solution for the vice president, but
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: I just don't.
• 29:06
  Speaker 4: And the issue is we can sit here all day
• 29:07
  Speaker 4: and say, well, actually, here's the reason why J.D. should
• 29:10
  Speaker 4: wait for four years or eight years. But, you know,
• 29:13
  Speaker 4: the thing is.
• 29:14
  Speaker 5: He's this close to the president.
• 29:16
  Speaker 4: If I were the vice president, I'm running.
• 29:19
  Speaker 5: Of course.
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: Now or never for him.
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: Look, he's young. He's very talented. He's very intelligent. His
• 29:25
  Speaker 4: rise in politics is astounding, actually. And so I don't
• 29:29
  Speaker 4: know that it's now or never, but it's kind of now,
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: you know, I mean, it is, he is the vice president.
• 29:35
  Speaker 4: I think the president actually just spoke to the wall
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: street journal, but they took the quote away from me.
• 29:39
  Speaker 5: There it is.
• 29:39
  Speaker 4: President Trump just spoke with the Wall Street Journal, and
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: hold on, stop scrolling so much. I want to read
• 29:44
  Speaker 4: the report. He says, the president said he had no
• 29:47
  Speaker 4: plans to make personnel changes inside his administration, and he
• 29:51
  Speaker 4: expressed support for Defense Secretary B-Tag Seth, who has led
• 29:54
  Speaker 4: the war effort. I think he's terrific, actually, President Trump said.
• 29:58
  Speaker 4: It's just the way the ball bounces sometimes, Trump said
• 30:00
  Speaker 4: of Tuesday night's primary results, or sorry, the midterm results.
• 30:03
  Speaker 6: So far, everything he's saying is true. Yes, there's... Can
• 30:05
  Speaker 6: you toss me the lighter?
• 30:07
  Speaker 4: It would be... This is an important issue, is getting
• 30:09
  Speaker 4: you that lighter.
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's just the way the ball bounces sometimes
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: is not.
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: The ball's not supposed to bounce in this direction.
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: The ball's not supposed to bounce and make Texas blue.
• 30:21
  Speaker 4: But to Trump's point, I think this is a good point.
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: You cannot blame Pete Hegsack. Because you don't like the
• 30:26
  Speaker 4: Iran war. I mean, I actually think it would be
• 30:28
  Speaker 4: wrong of him to fire Pete Higginson.
• 30:29
  Speaker 5: I mean, I agree. Pete Higginson's worth works for him.
• 30:31
  Speaker 3: I mean, and there is a case to be made.
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: Let's assume for a second, since the Iran war is
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: obviously the big subject that everybody is talking about tonight,
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: I think, again, that the big underplayed subject will be
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: the tariffs, which dramatically increased prices across the board. and
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: everyone pretends don't exist, even though they are wildly unpopular.
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: But we'll put that aside because nobody wants to talk
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: about that.
• 30:50
  Speaker 4: They were largely struck down, so it became kind of
• 30:53
  Speaker 4: a dead end.
• 30:53
  Speaker 5: Yeah, but it didn't really.
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: The exit polls show 64% of Americans didn't like the tariffs,
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: and 63% said it affected their business.
• 31:00
  Speaker 5: So, like, not great. Let's talk about the.
• 31:02
  Speaker 4: Iran war since it's more interesting and people like talking
• 31:04
  Speaker 4: about it. Though the tariffs did kind of affect Mayflower cigars, too.
• 31:07
  Speaker 4: We were able to eat the prices and maintain burrito
• 31:09
  Speaker 4: prices for the consumers.
• 31:10
  Speaker 5: So, but, but, yes. They're a problem for people, for sure.
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: But with regards to the Iran war, the question, let's
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: say you're J.D. or let's say you're the president, is
• 31:19
  Speaker 3: what you do now. Because nobody has a time machine.
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: We can do recriminations all day long and it's fine.
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: I mean, like, it's totally deserved and You know, like
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: what happened happened and we can now analyze where we
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: are now. Maybe we, you know, maybe we reverse the
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: recriminations if things go well over the course of the
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: next two days or something. But if you're the president
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: and or you're the vice president, you have to start
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: from the presumption that the Iranians are not going to
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: sign any sort of deal. Because they clearly are not.
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: I mean, they clearly are not interested in signing some
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: sort of deal. And so then the question becomes, how
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: do you get to a quasi-successful conclusion as fast as
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: humanly possible? That really is what it is. And because
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: the faster, the better, obviously. And the more successful, the better,
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: because Americans don't like losing wars. I know this is
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: something that we tend to forget. And again, a lot
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: of people who are sort of in the America First movement,
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: so to speak, will say that just ending the war
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: is sufficient. Just ending a war is not sufficient. If
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: you end it and you lose, you become Joe Biden
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: with Afghanistan. Ending it, you don't get credit for ending it.
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: You just get credit for winning.
• 32:14
  Speaker 4: General Patton, during World War II, gave this great speech
• 32:17
  Speaker 4: to the Third Army, where he says, America never can
• 32:20
  Speaker 4: and never has lost a war. And the funny thing is,
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: immediately after he said that, immediately after that war, with
• 32:27
  Speaker 4: the exception of Desert Storm, We lost like every war
• 32:30
  Speaker 4: that we've engaged in.
• 32:31
  Speaker 6: I mean, imperial wars were like that, unfortunately. But you
• 32:34
  Speaker 6: have to remember, even ending World War II took atom bombs,
• 32:39
  Speaker 6: and we're not dropping them, atom bombs, on Iran. That's
• 32:42
  Speaker 6: not happening. And I think....
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: The definition of loss in a war changed, or when
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: a war changed, because no one will surrender anymore. There
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: are no regimes who are willing to get on the
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: deck of an aircraft carrier and just be like, okay,
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: you know what, I'm giving up the ghost right here.
• 32:57
  Speaker 6: Because we're not fighting nations in the Middle East. We're
• 33:00
  Speaker 6: fighting weird movements.
• 33:03
  Speaker 5: Tribal constellations.
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: For sure that's true. And the truth is that in Korea, basically, we...
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: We won to the extent that there is a South Korea.
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, right.
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: I mean, you can't call that a loss in the
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: sense that there actually is a nation called South Korea.
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: It was a tie.
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: It was a draw.
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: It wasn't a tie for the South Koreans. It was
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: a win for the South Koreans. It was a loss
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: for the Norics.
• 33:20
  Speaker 5: But, you know, the.
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: The reality is that the thing that we got out
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: of World War II, in the same way that we
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: have a unique and weird view of how the 1950s worked,
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: we're like, oh, that should be the normal.
• 33:32
  Speaker 5: And actually, that's very, very abnormal. People look at World
• 33:35
  Speaker 5: War II, they're like, oh, that's how a war should end.
• 33:37
  Speaker 5: And let me explain.
• 33:38
  Speaker 3: Almost no wars in human history have ended the way
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: World War II ended, with the full-scale surrender of your opposition,
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: and they just give up the ghost, and you actually
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: just sort of manage their transition into the next thing.
• 33:48
  Speaker 5: That is not what happened at the end of World
• 33:49
  Speaker 5: War I.
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: There was an armistice at the end of World War I,
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: and then total hell broke loose in all of the
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: various countries ranging from Germany to Russia.
• 33:56
  Speaker 4: There was World War II at the end of World
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: War I.
• 33:58
  Speaker 5: Yeah, that's exactly right.
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: And before that, there was a war in 1870 between
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: the French and the Germans. And before that, there was
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: a gigantic war at the beginning of that century with
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: Napoleon running rampant across the continent. And so I think
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: that we have models in our head of how things
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: should work that are based on absolute outliers. That's true
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: of World War II. It's true of the 1950s economy,
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: which is not real. It is not a real economy
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: because in order for that to happen, we have to.
• 34:23
  Speaker 5: Destroy the rest of the world. We have to destroy
• 34:25
  Speaker 5: the rest of the world.
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: No, that's right.
• 34:27
  Speaker 5: Where the union.
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: Worker gets paid a day's wage at $ 90 bajillion.
• 34:31
  Speaker 6: But there is a question about imperial America that really
• 34:37
  Speaker 6: troubles me. I mean, In the old days, you went
• 34:40
  Speaker 6: and you fought a war with the country, and then
• 34:41
  Speaker 6: you installed the people you wanted.
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: To run it.
• 34:43
  Speaker 5: This is correct.
• 34:44
  Speaker 6: We never do this.
• 34:45
  Speaker 5: This is correct.
• 34:45
  Speaker 6: And that's one of the wonderful things about us. I
• 34:47
  Speaker 6: think it's a beautiful thing that the only thing we
• 34:50
  Speaker 6: left in Europe were our dead. That's what we left there.
• 34:53
  Speaker 6: But at some point, we're now dealing with a Europe
• 34:56
  Speaker 6: that is really not Europe. I mean, the speech that
• 35:01
  Speaker 6: Vance made and the speech that Rubio followed it with,
• 35:04
  Speaker 6: We're right. I mean, they're arresting more people for speaking
• 35:07
  Speaker 6: in the UK than they are in Russia. And I
• 35:10
  Speaker 6: think that that's like, how do we deal with that?
• 35:14
  Speaker 6: This is our mother country. It's still our greatest Anglosphere ally.
• 35:19
  Speaker 6: But it's not a recognizable country in terms of its values. So,
• 35:23
  Speaker 6: I mean, we stand alone at this moment. And we
• 35:27
  Speaker 6: have to look to Asia and we have to keep
• 35:29
  Speaker 6: the territory of Europe. Really, Poland and Hungary and all
• 35:37
  Speaker 6: of those eastern countries are the only people who are
• 35:39
  Speaker 6: aligned with our values at all.
• 35:40
  Speaker 4: And look what's happened there.
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly.
• 35:42
  Speaker 4: I mean, obviously, Hungary fell last year. And so it's
• 35:46
  Speaker 4: kind of bleak.
• 35:46
  Speaker 6: And he's arresting his enemies, too.
• 35:49
  Speaker 4: Of course. Totally as predicted.
• 35:51
  Speaker 5: As predicted.
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: You know what?
• 35:53
  Speaker 6: You're absolutely right. You said it at the time.
• 35:55
  Speaker 4: I hate to say I told you so. But all
• 35:58
  Speaker 4: to say, it's a rather bleak picture for the West.
• 36:02
  Speaker 4: And now, you know, it's come here in a very
• 36:04
  Speaker 4: acute form.
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: But again, I also don't think that anyone on either
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: side has made a robust argument for Americanism as an argument,
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: as a fully fleshed out argument. President Trump makes an
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: extraordinary emotional appeal to Americanism, right? Just the love for flag,
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: love for country, just to kind of root patriotism. That
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: for sure. But what are the actual values that make
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: America America? President Trump can't do a paragraph on that.
• 36:31
  Speaker 6: I agree.
• 36:32
  Speaker 5: And you've seen it.
• 36:33
  Speaker 6: You're one of the best spokesmen for it. And everybody
• 36:36
  Speaker 6: hates you. Except for me, I like it.
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: Note to self, do not issue paragraphs.
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: But I think there's a reason for that. And the
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: reason for that is the minute you try to define
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: a thing, you create controversy. And until the American people
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: are willing to get serious about defining the things that
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: they actually are willing to do and want, they're not
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: going to get those things and they're going to be
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: perennially disappointed. If you refuse to define what you want
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: from a war, you're not going to get it. And
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: if you refuse to define what sacrifices you're willing to undergo,
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: you're not going to be able to make those sacrifices.
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: And if you're not willing to acknowledge what economic system
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: you wish to live under and whether it is good
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: or not, then you're not going to get it. If
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: you want to say that you want to cut spending,
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: but you also want an endless welfare state where we
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: just pour gushers of money at you, and then we
• 37:16
  Speaker 3: fund that by bringing a bunch of illegal immigrants to
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: work at low rent wages.
• 37:21
  Speaker 4: But isn't that the issue? When it comes to even
• 37:24
  Speaker 4: the idea of Americanism as an ideology, that creates a
• 37:27
  Speaker 4: big problem because the big anxiety that we felt throughout
• 37:31
  Speaker 4: not only the Anglosphere, but Western Europe as well, well,
• 37:35
  Speaker 4: all of Europe actually, is mass migration, that the actual
• 37:39
  Speaker 4: people of our country have just changed radically. And we
• 37:42
  Speaker 4: don't have kids anymore, which ties into the welfare problem.
• 37:45
  Speaker 4: And so I would say, look, I want to preserve
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: the American nation. I love my country.
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: I love our way of life.
• 37:50
  Speaker 4: Not just the values, though I like those too, but
• 37:53
  Speaker 4: I like hot dogs on the 4th of July. I
• 37:54
  Speaker 4: like I like fireworks. I don't know. I like the
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: ineffable kind of stuff that we just do. And because
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: of mass migration, that is changing in our country and elsewhere.
• 38:05
  Speaker 4: People have a deep anxiety about that. And they're right
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: to have that anxiety. So then you try to distill
• 38:11
  Speaker 4: the nation down to a set of ideas or some ideology.
• 38:14
  Speaker 4: But the problem is, one, I don't think nations can
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: be reduced to that. our opponents aren't signing on board.
• 38:21
  Speaker 4: So even that doesn't quite work.
• 38:22
  Speaker 6: That's the key thing. I'm sure you know Hilaire Belloc's
• 38:25
  Speaker 6: theory that the Germans came, that Rome didn't fall. It
• 38:30
  Speaker 6: simply became the Catholic Church. And the Germans came in.
• 38:33
  Speaker 6: And everybody said, oh, no, the Germans are here. But
• 38:34
  Speaker 6: the Germans wanted to be Romans. We're letting in people
• 38:36
  Speaker 6: who don't want to be Americans, which is just a
• 38:38
  Speaker 6: real big mistake.
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: But I think the huge problem here that we're just
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: ignoring is a lot of Americans just don't want to
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: be Americans.
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 38:43
  Speaker 5: I mean, it's not just a problem of immigration.
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: It's a problem of we've educated several generations of people
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: not to believe in America and to hate America.
• 38:49
  Speaker 6: But because nobody in authority, nobody in power is doing
• 38:54
  Speaker 6: what you just said. Nobody is defining authority. what it
• 38:58
  Speaker 6: is America is, that socialism is antithetical to.
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: By the way, this is what the founders meant in
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: the Declaration of Independence when they said, we hold these
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: truths to be self-evident. They were not saying that the
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: truths were themselves self-evident. They're saying we hold these truths
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: to be self-evident, meaning this is not up for debate.
• 39:15
  Speaker 3: This right here is the stuff that's not up for debate.
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: If you don't agree, you should get out.
• 39:19
  Speaker 5: You don't belong here.
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: Yes, obviously, a nation is the people that live in it,
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: but that's not enough. And it's also not the idea.
• 39:28
  Speaker 5: I'll agree. The ideas aren't enough.
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: It has to be combined with the people who are
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: willing to live by those ideas and join in the
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: tradition and all those things. But the ideas are the
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: fundamental because people change. People change. their kids turn into socialists.
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: They can be good Americans and their kids turn into
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: little jackass socialists who vote for Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: and James Tallarico in Texas. Gen Z voted plus 48
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: for Democrats in this cycle. The vast majority of the
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: people who voted in that cycle, I promise you, are
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: children of Americans.
• 39:59
  Speaker 5: And so what we've.
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: Got right now, the Republican Party needs to, someone needs
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: to articulate what exactly are the principles that are supposed
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: to bind us and do so in muscular fashion And
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: without the kind of like, what if we just soft
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: sell what the Democrats are selling, but a little bit less?
• 40:15
  Speaker 6: Yes, that's the problem. That is exactly the problem.
• 40:17
  Speaker 5: Well, you know, there's also our Boris Johnson version.
• 40:20
  Speaker 6: We define things negatively all the time, what we're against.
• 40:22
  Speaker 6: We know what the conservatives are against, but they never
• 40:24
  Speaker 6: really come out and say what they think.
• 40:25
  Speaker 4: You know, our intrepid Brecca from Michigan, she was reporting
• 40:30
  Speaker 4: in Michigan at Abdul's campaign headquarters. She's interviewed a Muslim
• 40:34
  Speaker 4: couple on the street today. And you can check it
• 40:37
  Speaker 4: out on our social media channels. And they said, who'd
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: you vote for? We vote for Abdul Al-Sayed. Okay, and
• 40:42
  Speaker 4: what do you make of his view that men can
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: become women and women can become men? The Muslims said,
• 40:48
  Speaker 4: what do you talk about? That men can be men?
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: No, no, no.
• 40:51
  Speaker 4: He supports transgenderism. He said, no, no, he cannot believe that.
• 40:55
  Speaker 4: He's Muslim. He cannot believe that. And it was this
• 40:58
  Speaker 4: beautiful video. I mean, so hilarious, but though dark. And
• 41:02
  Speaker 4: you say, well, you know what? It's going to be
• 41:04
  Speaker 4: very easy. to blame Muslims in Dearborn or whatever for
• 41:07
  Speaker 4: Abdul El-Sayed. That, you can actually, because his deepest base
• 41:12
  Speaker 4: is like college educated whites.
• 41:13
  Speaker 6: Yeah, of course.
• 41:14
  Speaker 4: It actually doesn't quite work.
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: It's both, and also the Dearborn Muslim is totally right.
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: Abdul El-Sayed does not believe in transing.
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's true.
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: He's a religious Muslim who is lying to make common
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: cause with people who want to trans the kids to
• 41:24
  Speaker 3: destroy the civilization.
• 41:25
  Speaker 6: Well, this is the other thing.
• 41:26
  Speaker 5: They're both right, in other words.
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: People are on the leftist who's pretending to be a
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: religious Muslim.
• 41:30
  Speaker 5: For him, he's a religious Muslim.
• 41:32
  Speaker 4: If he's a Muslim pretending to be a leftist or
• 41:34
  Speaker 4: a leftist pretending to be a Muslim, I actually don't
• 41:36
  Speaker 4: know which is worse. We do, unfortunately, have more bad news.
• 41:39
  Speaker 4: Some more calls to report. CNN has called the main
• 41:42
  Speaker 4: Senate race, as I feared and predicted, for Democrat Troy Jackson,
• 41:48
  Speaker 4: who has defeated Susan Collins. Susan Collins, an amazing political survivor.
• 41:53
  Speaker 4: We all got irritated with a lot of her votes.
• 41:55
  Speaker 4: because she was playing a game.
• 41:56
  Speaker 5: Brett Kavanaugh would not be on the Supreme Court if
• 41:58
  Speaker 5: it were not for him.
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: No, no, no.
• 41:59
  Speaker 4: I'm like a Susan Collins enjoyer and defender. She played
• 42:02
  Speaker 4: a game very, very well. And even she, a total pro,
• 42:07
  Speaker 4: like the varsity superstar athlete of playing politics, went down
• 42:12
  Speaker 4: to Troy Jackson, who has two kids with his cousin.
• 42:14
  Speaker 4: NBC News also calls Pennsylvania's first district for a Democrat.
• 42:19
  Speaker 4: Bob Harvey defeating Republican Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick. I don't like
• 42:23
  Speaker 4: Brian Fitzpatrick, but.
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 42:25
  Speaker 4: He was a huge squish and everything, but.
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: It seems hard to dismiss this as a sort of fleeting, well,
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: this is just how midterms go. It feels like something
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: far more significant than that. And maybe it won't be,
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: but I mean, as you pointed out, there's a generational
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: problem here. Gen Z is falling to the siren song
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: of socialism again. And so how does that play out
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: in the long term? I'd like to think, as I
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: said at the beginning, things change quickly. And so Trump
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: was the most popular thing in the world in 2024.
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: And now look at it, and maybe it'll swing back
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: the other way, pendulum swing. But the far more pessimistic
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: view is that what we are seeing is the beginning
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: of a generational shift that is only just beginning. And
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: you hardly even want to consider what that means.
• 43:23
  Speaker 6: But the reason I'm hopeful is simply because of things
• 43:26
  Speaker 6: I've seen. Direction is all important. The way the country
• 43:33
  Speaker 6: is going is all important. Reagan turned the country around.
• 43:37
  Speaker 6: He didn't actually succeed at a lot of what he
• 43:40
  Speaker 6: wanted to do, but he gave us 25 years of prosperity.
• 43:43
  Speaker 6: That entire Clinton administration was just riding the wave of
• 43:47
  Speaker 6: Reagan's prosperity. And in New York, I lived in New
• 43:51
  Speaker 6: York when I had to run to get a cab
• 43:54
  Speaker 6: to go to work so I wasn't killed. That's how
• 43:56
  Speaker 6: bad the crime was. And I'm not even exaggerating about that.
• 43:59
  Speaker 6: I couldn't go out for a pack of cigarettes without
• 44:01
  Speaker 6: worrying that I was not gonna come home. And Giuliani
• 44:05
  Speaker 6: turned it around simply by coming into office, it started.
• 44:09
  Speaker 6: And that's just the beginning, but the way the country
• 44:12
  Speaker 6: is going means everything. If the country is going left,
• 44:15
  Speaker 6: Leftism doesn't work. It's the only thing we have going
• 44:17
  Speaker 6: for us is that leftism doesn't work. And so I
• 44:21
  Speaker 6: think that if someone came into office who was a
• 44:24
  Speaker 6: free trade person, who was a capitalist, who was a
• 44:27
  Speaker 6: freedom person, things would turn around. All those guys who
• 44:31
  Speaker 6: were in the bonfire of the vanities in that Tom
• 44:33
  Speaker 6: Wolfe book who went into the stock market and started
• 44:35
  Speaker 6: making a billion dollars, Five years before that, there were
• 44:38
  Speaker 6: long-haired hippies at Woodstock. Same people, same people. So things
• 44:43
  Speaker 6: really do turn around, and they turn around because of
• 44:45
  Speaker 6: prosperity and peace. That's what makes me glad.
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: I also think that they turn around, in some cases,
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: faster than you would think.
• 44:52
  Speaker 6: Yes, much.
• 44:53
  Speaker 3: Nixon gets impeached in 75, or it was about to be,
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: and he's out of office, and you have Gerald Ford.
• 44:59
  Speaker 3: And then he loses to Jimmy Carter, and it feels
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: like the end of the world for Republicans. And four
• 45:02
  Speaker 3: years later, they're so bad.
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Reagan was effectively three terms plus Clinton. CNN is
• 45:07
  Speaker 4: also releasing some of their exit polling. It shows Democrats
• 45:11
  Speaker 4: winning young white men by 17 points tonight. Trump won
• 45:15
  Speaker 4: young white men by 28 points just two years ago.
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: Also from the exit polls.
• 45:20
  Speaker 6: It's true that the Iran war is the economy.
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I think that shift with Trump.
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: White man is astounding, I think, male, because God forbid
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: you ever specifically support white men as a group. And
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: if you're not willing to speak to white men and
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: acknowledge them specifically as a group, the way that politicians
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: on both sides have no problem talking to specifically any
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: other group, women, black people, anyone else, Asians, whatever.
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: But with with white men they don't want to think about.
• 45:53
  Speaker 4: This so I defended Sarah on that ad because the
• 45:56
  Speaker 4: policy was good and She felt that it was expedient
• 46:00
  Speaker 4: to scapegoat white men that that was the only way
• 46:02
  Speaker 4: to sell it politically even to white people And so
• 46:06
  Speaker 4: I defended her tactically on it. I think she's doing
• 46:08
  Speaker 4: a good job However, there's this Pew Research Survey that
• 46:14
  Speaker 4: came out that shows you this problem every racial group
• 46:18
  Speaker 4: has majority racial identity So if you look at black
• 46:23
  Speaker 4: people Those who say that race is a very or
• 46:27
  Speaker 4: or at least somewhat important part of their identity It's
• 46:29
  Speaker 4: over 70% if you look at Hispanics and Asians, it's
• 46:33
  Speaker 4: over 50% for white people. It's 15% right now Those
• 46:36
  Speaker 4: numbers are a little out of date now. I think
• 46:38
  Speaker 4: they're eight or nine years old maybe older probably white
• 46:42
  Speaker 4: racial consciousness has increased as the inevitable consequence of the
• 46:46
  Speaker 4: racial identity politics of every other group. So to your point, Matt,
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: it remains to this day taboo to speak to the
• 46:54
  Speaker 4: young white men who just totally flipped over to the
• 46:57
  Speaker 4: Democrat side, to speak to them as an identity group.
• 47:01
  Speaker 4: Do you think that will change as a result of
• 47:02
  Speaker 4: the midterms?
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: I don't think that that will change as the result
• 47:06
  Speaker 3: of the midterms. I think that there's another factor there,
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: which is that there's a there's a downside risk to
• 47:12
  Speaker 3: speaking because many of that that poll no matter how
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: much it's moved would still i would assume show a
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: minority of white people not identifying as you know white
• 47:21
  Speaker 3: identitarian right so even on just a raw political beside
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: the morality of all groups identifying on the basis of
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: ethnic you know identity as opposed to religious identity or
• 47:29
  Speaker 3: ideological identity or political or anything like that put aside
• 47:32
  Speaker 3: put that aside just in raw political terms what you
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: do by doing the white identitarianism is the Beau French thing.
• 47:38
  Speaker 5: You just alienate everybody else.
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: Including white people. Including most white people. So that turns
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: out to be a mistake. That's not what's happening here.
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: I think what happened with young white men is that
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: there was a misread by Republicans that because they voted
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: for Trump and they shifted from kind of Bernie Sanders
• 47:54
  Speaker 3: land to Trump land, like the Joe Rogan, Theo Vaughn guys,
• 47:58
  Speaker 3: and they moved into Trump's camp that these were now
• 48:01
  Speaker 3: like a core part of the constituency that would not
• 48:04
  Speaker 3: go away. And I've been saying for a while, that's
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: not true. Like these are, there's a very, there's a
• 48:08
  Speaker 3: variable group of people. White people overall voted for Trump.
• 48:13
  Speaker 3: They voted for Republicans in this election. The exit poll
• 48:14
  Speaker 3: shows the only racial group that voted in favor of
• 48:16
  Speaker 3: Republicans in this election cycle, which was dire. Young white
• 48:20
  Speaker 3: men are incredibly variable. They are incredibly reactive to whatever
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: is sort of the transgressive narrative of the day. And so,
• 48:28
  Speaker 3: I mean, Joe Rogan was basically endorsing James Tallarico in
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: the middle of the race. Treating Joe Rogan as though
• 48:33
  Speaker 3: he's sort of a fellow traveler on the right and
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: just an erstwhile Republican voter is a category error. And
• 48:38
  Speaker 3: the same thing is true for Theo Vaughn, who's been
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: doing the same thing with Democratic candidates. So, again, those
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: were very much up for grabs. By the way, again,
• 48:44
  Speaker 3: you do have stats in that exit poll. Points from
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: my memory, even though it's late at night. I did
• 48:49
  Speaker 3: say cost of living was the number one issue with
• 48:50
  Speaker 3: a bullet at 89%.
• 48:52
  Speaker 5: That was right.
• 48:52
  Speaker 3: 58% of those voters voted Democrat. And again, Iran is
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: part of that too, but it's not the whole thing.
• 48:57
  Speaker 3: Iran is part of that, but interest rates are part
• 48:59
  Speaker 3: of that.
• 48:59
  Speaker 4: And you know, the dysfunction in the housing market, which
• 49:02
  Speaker 4: president Trump has talked about and invade against for quite
• 49:05
  Speaker 4: a while. That's very important too. The other issue on, uh, the,
• 49:08
  Speaker 4: the white people voting Republican, the only racial group that
• 49:11
  Speaker 4: did white people voted Republican, whatever, 52, 48, 51, 47, 51, 40.
• 49:13
  Speaker 6: Yeah. Okay. 51, 47.
• 49:13
  Speaker 5: Uh, the, the other racial groups voted.
• 49:20
  Speaker 4: Voted Democrat in a much more decisive way.
• 49:23
  Speaker 5: Oh, it was 88-9 for black people.
• 49:25
  Speaker 3: But the one that shifted, and this is where Republicans, again,
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: if you're going to do what Trump wanted to do,
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: which was build a multiracial coalition of blue-collar and working-class people, right?
• 49:38
  Speaker 3: This was the Henry Olsen goal.
• 49:39
  Speaker 6: Yep.
• 49:40
  Speaker 3: If you're going to do that, I'm sorry, but you
• 49:42
  Speaker 3: can't put out Studio Ghibli of ICE officers handcuffing fat
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: Hispanic ladies out to the bus.
• 49:50
  Speaker 5: You can't. That's just bad politics.
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: You may want those people, meaning that lady was a
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: criminal in real life, but optics matter in politics. Trump
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: should know this better than anybody because he actually is
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: optically intelligent. But the fact that the ICE operations, and
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: this is why Greg Blumini was terrible at his job
• 50:08
  Speaker 3: and Tom Homan is good at his job, You do
• 50:11
  Speaker 3: the thing quietly without bothering people. That's the way you
• 50:15
  Speaker 3: actually do policy. You do things quietly without bothering people.
• 50:17
  Speaker 3: And when you just yell from the rooftops that you're
• 50:19
  Speaker 3: being mean to people, it turns out that people who
• 50:23
  Speaker 3: are Hispanic go, oh, God, that's not what I meant.
• 50:27
  Speaker 6: It would be nice, though. You know the famous line
• 50:29
  Speaker 6: about Churchill that he mobilized the English language and sent
• 50:32
  Speaker 6: it to war? It would be nice if we could
• 50:33
  Speaker 6: elect somebody who could speak. You know, it's not a
• 50:36
  Speaker 6: small thing.
• 50:37
  Speaker 4: No, I've long defended Trump as having actual poetic diction in.
• 50:41
  Speaker 6: The Barfieldian sense. He does have poetic diction.
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: He doesn't have political diction. Something happened with Trump.
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: I don't know what it is exactly, but it seems
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: like in this term, he totally lost touch with the
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: base completely in a way that, I mean, like you
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: were saying earlier that it seemed like with Trump in
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: 2016 that he kind of would figure out the policies
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: as he went. And it's also true what Drew said,
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: that many of the things he talked about he'd been
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: talking about for decades. I think what actually happened was
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: this dialogue he was in with the base where he would,
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: he would say something that was a little bit wild
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: and kind of out there. And then the base, through
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: like Twitter, would come out and say, well, I think
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: what he really means is this. And then he would
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: read that and go, yeah, I meant that. And so
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: there was this back and forth. And through that dialogue,
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: he actually constructed a really good.
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: Set of policies.
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: And in 2024, it's been completely severed. And I thought,
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: and I brought this up on the other show, that
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: to me, The giant red flag that something major had
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: changed was with Epstein because no matter how we feel
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: about Epstein, that was really important with the base.
• 51:56
  Speaker 5: I agree with you on that.
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: I agree with you, too.
• 51:59
  Speaker 5: Epstein was a disaster.
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: It was the first time, Epstein was the first time
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: when Trump seemed to be totally, wildly, in a baffling way,
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: out of step with his own base.
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: And it seemed like he didn't even know it.
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah. And so I don't know what that is exactly.
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: Maybe a lot of it is truth social rather than
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: just being on Twitter.
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think that might be part of it.
• 52:18
  Speaker 3: I think a large part of it was he convinced
• 52:21
  Speaker 3: himself because he has a unique capacity to convince himself
• 52:23
  Speaker 3: of things, which is why he's authentic.
• 52:25
  Speaker 5: He believes the thing he's saying in the moment.
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: When he says 2024 was a great historic victory that
• 52:29
  Speaker 3: has never been paralleled and every Republican is still with me,
• 52:32
  Speaker 3: he actually believes that thing. And so when he said
• 52:35
  Speaker 3: the vast majority of Republicans are still with me after
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: the whole Epstein thing, which was true, statistically it was true,
• 52:41
  Speaker 3: but you're right, the rollout was out of touch. and
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: he didn't bother to kind of go out and and
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: there are people in the administration including apparently a bunch
• 52:48
  Speaker 3: you know telling him what you need to go out
• 52:49
  Speaker 3: and like explain exactly what.
• 52:51
  Speaker 6: It is you know i was just about to bring
• 52:52
  Speaker 6: down up because.
• 52:53
  Speaker 4: Down before we get into dan we do have a
• 52:55
  Speaker 4: few more updates on the bright side is a bright
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: side although there's a bright side before we go to
• 53:00
  Speaker 4: bed the a p calls the louisiana senate race to
• 53:03
  Speaker 4: rewound or say louisiana great we say the republican wins
• 53:07
  Speaker 4: louisiana By two points currently.
• 53:10
  Speaker 6: Yeah, my God.
• 53:11
  Speaker 4: Currently by two, but okay. So Republicans win Louisiana.
• 53:13
  Speaker 5: Back to bad news.
• 53:14
  Speaker 4: Now, not as good.
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: It's actually not bad.
• 53:15
  Speaker 4: Democrats are currently leading by a solid margin at this point.
• 53:19
  Speaker 4: All four contested Texas Supreme Court races.
• 53:22
  Speaker 5: Wipeout in Texas.
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: Wipeout.
• 53:25
  Speaker 6: But Dan Bongino, I think, is a real straight arrow guy,
• 53:28
  Speaker 6: as far as I can tell. And he left the administration.
• 53:31
  Speaker 6: And the minute that happened, I thought, what did he
• 53:34
  Speaker 6: see that he could not bear? There was something he
• 53:36
  Speaker 6: saw that he couldn't bear. And he's been loyal enough
• 53:39
  Speaker 6: not to come out really.
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: I mean, I won't speak on behalf of Dan, but
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: I kind of think that you don't have to read
• 53:44
  Speaker 3: the tea leaves very well to understand that there was
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: significant conflict inside the administration about the level of transparency
• 53:50
  Speaker 3: that was being provided around the investigation.
• 53:52
  Speaker 4: And....
• 53:55
  Speaker 5: Pam Bondi did.
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: A horrible job. I mean, she did a horrible job.
• 54:00
  Speaker 3: Everyone knows she did a horrible job. And so there
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: was this disconnect. It kept emerging. Listen, the first time
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: it truly emerged for me was Liberation Day, I think
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: I will maintain, and the polls show, was a disaster.
• 54:12
  Speaker 5: It was a terrible, terrible idea. It was the most,
• 54:14
  Speaker 5: I know that everybody is rolling their eyes.
• 54:16
  Speaker 4: Yeah, no, I don't know that it was, it could
• 54:18
  Speaker 4: have been a bad, I just don't think that really.
• 54:20
  Speaker 5: It is when the streams crossed. You can look on,
• 54:23
  Speaker 5: it is that day.
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: You can look where he went from net approval positive
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: to net approval negative, and then he never stopped. And
• 54:30
  Speaker 3: when you walk out and you start terrifying penguins, because
• 54:33
  Speaker 3: it's just stuff that you can do. Like, if you
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: wanted to do tariffs, again, I'm not arguing against all tariffs.
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: I'm saying that you can't declare trade war on the
• 54:41
  Speaker 3: entire world in the middle of an affordability inflation spiral
• 54:45
  Speaker 3: and then claim that your top priority is quashing inflation.
• 54:49
  Speaker 6: But I think it was a structural thing that Matt
• 54:51
  Speaker 6: was getting at that was really true, this dialogue that
• 54:54
  Speaker 6: Trump was in with his base. I was at a
• 54:57
  Speaker 6: cigar night in Virginia. You know, they have this, the
• 55:01
  Speaker 6: Republicans gather once a month for the cigar night. And
• 55:04
  Speaker 6: my friend Sebastian Gorka was there. And somebody said to him,
• 55:08
  Speaker 6: you know, what went wrong, basically, with Trump 1? And
• 55:11
  Speaker 6: Sebastian then spoke for an unbroken 45 minutes about how
• 55:16
  Speaker 6: the Republican Party set about peopling the administration with people
• 55:20
  Speaker 6: who hated Trump and were working against him. And that
• 55:23
  Speaker 6: when he and others sat down and thought, well, who
• 55:25
  Speaker 6: can we enlist who will join us? And actually, they
• 55:29
  Speaker 6: came up with like five names and they had nobody else.
• 55:32
  Speaker 6: Trump solved that problem during those four years and surrounded
• 55:35
  Speaker 6: himself with people who agreed with him and who were
• 55:40
  Speaker 6: pretty good, I think. You know, I mean, you say
• 55:41
  Speaker 6: what you will about Pete Hicks. He brought the military
• 55:45
  Speaker 6: back so that people were actually listening.
• 55:47
  Speaker 5: No, I will say this. I think that some of
• 55:49
  Speaker 5: the staff.
• 55:49
  Speaker 6: But it cut him off. Just to finish the thought,
• 55:51
  Speaker 6: it cut him off from that dialogue. He was surrounded
• 55:54
  Speaker 6: with people, with yes men, but also supporters. But it
• 55:57
  Speaker 6: cut him off from that dialogue with the people who
• 55:59
  Speaker 6: could disagree with him and also move him.
• 56:01
  Speaker 3: I certainly think that it is true that he created
• 56:03
  Speaker 3: a bubble around himself in this White House. And I
• 56:05
  Speaker 3: think that there's no one in the... It went from
• 56:07
  Speaker 3: let's talk with the president about what should be done.
• 56:10
  Speaker 3: And maybe in most cases, obviously, we're going to always
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: defer to him.
• 56:13
  Speaker 5: He's the president. But what we'll push back.
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: And it went to how do we effectuate the thing
• 56:17
  Speaker 3: that he says he wants to do right now?
• 56:19
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 56:19
  Speaker 5: And how is it? And let's race to do it.
• 56:21
  Speaker 5: Let's like let's run to do it.
• 56:23
  Speaker 3: And so the sort of, you know, by the end
• 56:25
  Speaker 3: of the administration, I'll just take as an example, William Barr.
• 56:27
  Speaker 5: Versus Pam Bondi.
• 56:28
  Speaker 3: There is no question that William Barr, who was the
• 56:30
  Speaker 3: Attorney General, was a far superior Attorney General to Pam Bondi.
• 56:34
  Speaker 3: William Barr was great. And William Barr was doing many
• 56:37
  Speaker 3: of the things that Trump wanted, but he would also say,
• 56:39
  Speaker 3: you know, Mr. President, this is a bad idea. You
• 56:41
  Speaker 3: probably just shouldn't do this thing. And he was abiding
• 56:43
  Speaker 3: by the law in doing that. And Pam Bondi was
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: kind of running around like chicken with her head cut
• 56:46
  Speaker 3: off to just effectuate the will of the President.
• 56:48
  Speaker 5: You do need people. I mean, this is true in
• 56:50
  Speaker 5: everybody's life. Forget about politics.
• 56:51
  Speaker 3: You need people in your life who you trust and
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: want the best for you, but who are also capable
• 56:55
  Speaker 3: of saying to you, you know, This one is not
• 56:58
  Speaker 3: a way.
• 56:58
  Speaker 4: Well, you know, it's curious in this administration, in the
• 57:00
  Speaker 4: second Trump administration, I'm basing this just on reporting, but
• 57:04
  Speaker 4: a lot of the reporting comes out and says, especially
• 57:07
  Speaker 4: on the Iran war, that you had figures who were
• 57:09
  Speaker 4: urging caution in Iran. Probably the most prominent is JD Vance.
• 57:13
  Speaker 4: So it's helpful when the guy who is providing some,
• 57:16
  Speaker 4: you know, alternative views is in a position where he
• 57:19
  Speaker 4: can't get fired and he's, you know, elected by the
• 57:20
  Speaker 4: American people. He's in a good, good state. But there
• 57:23
  Speaker 4: were other figures in the administration too. There was some
• 57:25
  Speaker 4: reporting about John Ratcliffe and Marco Rubio and other people
• 57:29
  Speaker 4: pushing back on some of these ideas. So you do
• 57:31
  Speaker 4: have some of that disagreement, but probably the rest of
• 57:34
  Speaker 4: the staffing of the administration, you have less.
• 57:37
  Speaker 3: They're so thinly staffed. Also, they are just unbelievably thinly staffed.
• 57:41
  Speaker 3: And if you go below the top level, there's almost
• 57:42
  Speaker 3: no one.
• 57:43
  Speaker 6: Right, and at the top, there are very, very good people.
• 57:45
  Speaker 4: Two more updates for tonight. The votes are coming in
• 57:48
  Speaker 4: from Alaska, showing a very tight race with only 21%.
• 57:52
  Speaker 4: Reporting so far, Democrat, Mary Peltola is leading with 54%
• 57:58
  Speaker 4: over Dan Sullivan at 45%. Which Dan Sullivan? There are
• 58:03
  Speaker 4: two of them.
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, right.
• 58:05
  Speaker 4: On the bright side. CBS is now calling the Tennessee.
• 58:08
  Speaker 5: Thank God for you, Michael.
• 58:10
  Speaker 4: We finally take that cabot all night. Cabot. Well, you know,
• 58:15
  Speaker 4: the Tennessee governor. I said, buddy, if Marsha Blackburn's not
• 58:18
  Speaker 4: the next governor, like we got to move. I don't know.
• 58:21
  Speaker 5: There's no place to move. Down to Florida.
• 58:23
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 58:24
  Speaker 6: You guys are going to be in your own country.
• 58:25
  Speaker 4: All right. So that's good news.
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: Much closer than you thought, though.
• 58:29
  Speaker 6: Yes, 45-43. Oh, my God.
• 58:31
  Speaker 4: I can't see the.
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: 45-43.
• 58:32
  Speaker 5: Wow. That's totally insane.
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 58:35
  Speaker 5: By the way, that is insane. Byron Donalds won by
• 58:38
  Speaker 5: two points against David Jolly.
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 58:40
  Speaker 3: Ashley Moody won against a psychotic Democratic Socialist of America
• 58:44
  Speaker 3: candidate named Angie Nixon in that Senate race by two points.
• 58:47
  Speaker 5: Yeah. Just nuts.
• 58:48
  Speaker 6: No, this is a tsunami. There's no question about it.
• 58:51
  Speaker 6: It's as bad as, you know, it's as bad as
• 58:53
  Speaker 6: it can be.
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 58:54
  Speaker 4: Does anyone want to say anything happy before we go home?
• 58:56
  Speaker 6: No. No.
• 58:57
  Speaker 5: It's the end of the night, yeah. I'm happy about that.
• 58:59
  Speaker 6: I enjoyed your cigar.
• 59:00
  Speaker 4: Thank you.
• 59:01
  Speaker 5: Thank you there.
• 59:01
  Speaker 4: One silver lining. Wonderful to be with all of you.
• 59:05
  Speaker 4: Who was it who earlier said, I guess it was
• 59:07
  Speaker 4: Glenn Beck, who said, you know, God is sovereign over history.
• 59:09
  Speaker 4: He's not up for re-election. He knows the hairs of
• 59:11
  Speaker 4: our head, you know, a sparrow doesn't fall without his knowledge.
• 59:13
  Speaker 4: So that is the consolation and the comfort we take
• 59:15
  Speaker 4: for tonight and probably the only one. Thank you for
• 59:18
  Speaker 4: watching Friendly Fire and our election night coverage. We'll see
• 59:21
  Speaker 4: you tomorrow.
• 59:24
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