Latest / Toadstool Sports / Saturday BEST BETS | The Nor'easter | MLB & NCAA Football | 9/26/26

Transcript

Saturday BEST BETS | The Nor'easter | MLB & NCAA Football | 9/26/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: In your chest.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Black coffee on the felt, man, you look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three-team parlay turned to dust in your head. Now you
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: stare at the chips like they made you this mad.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet, don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Your name still means something to somebody for sure.
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: Put the glass.
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: Down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Look at me now.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: Hold on. Hold on. Not tonight.
• 0:55
  Speaker 3: Not now. Hold on.
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: Hold on. Let me pull you out. That fellow fights hard.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: But he don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: On, stay with me now.
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports.
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: It is Saturday, September 26th. 1-1 on the show yesterday.
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: We got the win with the Arizona Diamondbacks. First five innings,
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: they jumped out to an early 3-0 lead right away,
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: and they held on to that lead. They won the
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: game as well, so we got that right. We did
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: not get the college football game right. Even though it
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: was a close game, Cal was winning at the beginning
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: of the game. Then after they scored the opening touchdown,
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: they never scored again. Well, they scored three more points.
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: That was it. They were terrible in the second half.
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: I don't know what else to say about it, man.
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: I thought Clemson, with the bio-clock thing, I thought they
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: might really run out of steam late in that game.
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: Fuck that. If you want my college football plays for today,
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: which are my only plays for today, I will repeat
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: them at the end of the show, but you can
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: see my detailed analysis on the huge college football show
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: that I did last night, which was one of the
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: longest episodes I've ever done, probably. I think it took
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: me two and a half hours. I went through pretty
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: much every game in detail, at least as much detail
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: as I do in college football. I don't like the
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: Major League Baseball board today, but that is what I'm
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: going to talk about on this morning show here. Give
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: out some opinions on it, but I don't want to
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: force any plays on a board like this, man. I mean,
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: we only have one more day of baseball left. You'll
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: see when we start going through this, there's a lot
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: of unpredictability here. You don't know what these teams are
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: even doing. A lot of these teams have nothing to
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: play for, and pitchers are sort of, you know, some
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: of these teams are going bullpen games. Some of these teams...
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: You know, some of these pitchers might just be having
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: tune-ups and might not be in the game very long.
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: Some of these, there might be pitchers that are just
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: pitching for emotional reasons, let's say. You'll know what I
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: mean when I get to it. And we have Red
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: Sox Cubs and Yankees Orioles are not playing today because
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: of the Nor'easter up here in the Northeast. Both teams
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: played a doubleheader yesterday. And unfortunately, I was correct about the— well,
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: I guess— I don't know about unfortunately, but I was
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: correct about the Game 1 Orioles winning against the Yankees
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: in Game 1. Didn't have it on my card, though,
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: but I was really incorrect about the two under opinions
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: that I had. Luckily, none of that made my card, though.
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: None of the unders did. Red Sox surprisingly swept the
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: doubleheader with the Cubs yesterday. And I was actually incorrect.
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: I thought the Red Sox had already clinched the number
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: two wild card. They actually did not clinch that until
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: they won Game 1 yesterday. But whatever. And then, yeah,
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: Red Sox had a weird shutout, combination shutout in the
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: night game between Bayo and Pius. Pius actually looked good
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: against the Cubs offense, like any elite offense. They looked
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: like they had no idea what to do against either
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: Bayo or Pius. It was crazy. Pius... His change-up was
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: like fooling everybody.
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: Maybe he's actually good. He didn't look good when he
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: pitched before. I have no idea, but he's only 22,
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: so I don't know. 138 views. That's decent. Charles, what's up?
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: I mean, I want my views to be way bigger
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: than that, but that's a decent amount for a show
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: on this channel. My audio numbers massively spiked on Thursday,
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: I guess it was. I don't know why, but Hopefully
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: that continues. That would be awesome if I can actually
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: start making some amount of money with that that's actually meaningful.
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: But let's just do this. We have some afternoon baseball
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: here to start. Mets at Washington. I mean, again, you
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: have a couple of teams here just playing out the stretch.
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: It's a divisional series. It seems like both teams were
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: motivated yesterday. It was a close game that Washington won 7-6. This... Basically,
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: these pitchers are going with some of their young. These
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: teams are going with some of their young pitchers here today,
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: I guess, to see what they got. Washington does not
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: have a good bullpen. They used four guys yesterday. The
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: Mets have a better bullpen than they do. The Mets
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: use four as well. The Mets are ranked eighth in bullpen.
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: Washington is 27th. Washington is the better offense. They're number three.
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: The Mets number 24. Jonah Tong getting the start for
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: the Mets in this one. He's young, 23. He's got
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: a 4.21 ERA this year and a very limited sample
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: this year, 1.32 whip. I believe he did pitch last
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: year a little bit as well. Did not do well
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: last year. This year he's been a little bit better
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: than that, but he's up and down right now, man.
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: I mean, he's got to fix his walk issue. That's
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: really his main problem here. His hit rate is all right.
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: His walk rate is way too high, like one every
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: two winnings, more than that, actually. His strikeout rate is
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: fairly good. And he's a guy that does get a
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: decent amount of ground balls. So it seems like he's
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: possibly got some talent here, maybe has a decent ceiling here.
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: Two starts ago, he was really good against Baltimore. Last
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: time out, he was not good against Philadelphia. I don't
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: know what we do with this information. I mean, it's
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: difficult to figure out what we think he's actually going
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: to do in this game. He's not as good on
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: the road, though. 6.35 road ERA this year. Washington has
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: never faced him before, so he is unfamiliar to them,
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: which might help him. Because as I point out, young pitchers,
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: when the offenses haven't seen them before, the offenses can
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: kind of struggle to figure them out. Connolly Early, my man,
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: is making his Washington debut after the Red Sox traded
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: him while he was on the 60-day DL. And the
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: Red Sox got Curtis Meade, and he immediately got hit
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: in the hand by a pitch. And he's been on
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: the DL since then. He's probably not playing for the
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: rest of the season. But good for early that he's
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: coming back here. This will be his debut for Washington.
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: He was having a decent season with the Red Sox, 3.44 ERA, 1.25 whip.
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: He was not as good as a home pitcher. That
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: was in Fenway, though, 4.18 ERA. Although, I mean, I
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: don't know if Washington is really known as being either
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: hitter-friendly or pitcher-friendly. I don't think it's really either. Hilariously,
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: I guess, his last start that he made was in
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: June against Washington, and he shut them out for four innings,
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: and now they have him on their team. Interesting. He
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: has a pretty low hit rate here. His walk rate's
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: not too bad. His strikeout rate is good. So his
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: numbers are pretty good on the season. 2.7 strikeout walk ratio.
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: That's not excellent, but it's fine. 9.1 strikeout per nine.
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: Pretty good. Early against the Mets. I'm guessing he hasn't
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: pitched against them because the Red Sox don't face them often. Yeah,
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: only Christopher Murrell has ever faced him. He is one
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: for two often with a two-run double. No strikeouts, no
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: walks there. Early, I mean, he seems to be maybe
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: the more trustworthy pitcher here, but he's not a veteran.
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: I like veterans when they come off the DL because
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: I think they They're used to that sort of thing,
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: and the team kind of rallies around them. Maybe the
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: team will rally around Early here for his Washington debut.
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: Maybe the team will back him here and help him out.
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: I mean, this game, like I said, these games are
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: all pretty hard to predict today. The money is strongly
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: indicating on the Washington side here. The Mets are minus
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: 130-something here. But like I said yesterday... Don't you think
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: it looks strange that the Mets are a road favorite
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: here against a team that's got a better record than
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: they do and a better offense? You would think the
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: public would not be on the Mets in this game,
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: yet we have 58% of the tickets apparently on the Mets,
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: so I don't know. To me, it almost looks too
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: easy to take Washington as the underdog, and they won yesterday,
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: so you'd think the public would be backing Washington here,
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: but that's not really the case. 90% of the cash
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: on Washington. So the market read is saying Washington here.
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: It is also sort of saying under eight, under eight
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: and a half or under eight here. I don't have
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: much on this. I mean, early is at this point,
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: I think the more proven pitcher over Tongs. So I
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: think if you play this game, I guess Washington first
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: five is probably the move there. I would not want
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: to deal with their bullpen, but maybe Washington first five.
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: We don't know how deep early is going to go
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: in this game because he's coming back from a long
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: injury stint, so they might not have him go that deep.
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: into this game you know so you might see like
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: a three inning outing from him or something like that
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: and because there's only one day left of baseball tomorrow
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: some of these teams might just start unloading all their
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: bullpens too you know what I mean especially teams that
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: are not going to be in the playoffs so we
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: will see uh Pittsburgh and Detroit This game, I believe
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: Detroit won yesterday. I was correct about that opinion yesterday.
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: Detroit won, although I think they won like 8-7 or something.
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: It was a close game. Detroit used four relief pitchers yesterday.
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh used three. Detroit has the better bullpen. Detroit's number
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: 13 in bullpen. Pittsburgh is number 18. They're not too bad.
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh is the better offense, ranked 6th. Detroit 13th, tied
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: with the Yankees. Pittsburgh is going with a bullpen game here.
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: Kirby Yates, he's had decent numbers. He's 39 years old. And, yeah,
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: the listed starters in this game are a combined age of,
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: I don't know, over 80. Yeah. And Yates is the
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: younger of the two. And, yeah, if you haven't seen
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: already who's pitching for Detroit, yeah, you're going to laugh probably. Yates,
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: he's probably only going to go one inning here. I mean,
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: he's an opener. He's got okay numbers this year, but
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: I don't know if that really matters. He does have
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: good numbers against Detroit. Maybe that's part of the reason
• 11:24
  Speaker 3: why they're going to put him out there to start
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: the game. No clue, man. I don't really think I
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: want to trust a Pittsburgh bullpen game. And on the
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: other side, yeah, you read this right. Justin Verlander is
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: starting for Detroit, which will be, I believe, his final
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: appearance in Major League Baseball this He's 43 years old.
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: He made one start this year with Detroit, which I
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: think nobody even remembers that. Detroit picked him up. I
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: thought Detroit just got him. I didn't even think he
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: was going to pitch this year. I thought Detroit just
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: got him so that he could retire. As a member
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: of the Tigers, you know what I mean? Like, back
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: where he started. And that is what he's going to do.
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: But they're like, fuck it. He's on our roster. Let's
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: have him pitch. I don't know. He was not good
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: the one time he pitched this year, way back in March.
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: He gave up five runs in three and two-thirds innings
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: against Arizona. Had one strikeout, two walks. Do we really
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: think he's going to pitch well here? I mean... Maybe,
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: I don't know, maybe it's this movie ending of some
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: kind where he goes out there and he actually has
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: a really good game. I don't really see it. I
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: think that people are going to latch onto that too
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: much and people are going to want, oh yeah, they
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: want that type of thing to happen. Maybe it will.
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: Maybe the whole thing is rigged and it's like watching
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: a movie. It's like watching professional wrestling and maybe that
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: will be the case. I don't really expect it, though.
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: I think he's going to go out there and probably
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: throw a couple innings, make his final appearance here, and
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: that might be about it, and then they're going to
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: turn it over to the bullpen. That would be my
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: guess here. I wouldn't trust him to actually do well,
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: but who knows? He's coming off the DL. He's been
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: injured all season. Who knows, man? He's got old age
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: at this point. Pittsburgh also does not have horrible offensive
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: numbers against him. Their current lineup has 39 at-bats against him.
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: 13 strikeouts and no walks is really good for him,
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: but they also have a. 308 average against him.. 692
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: OPS is not high, though, so they have not really
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: hit him for power, but they have some contact hitting
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: against him. This game looks like an over to me. Like,
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: the pitching looks bad in this game. I'm sorry. But
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: the money looked like it was coming in on the
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: under when I looked here. No, actually, it doesn't. 68%
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: of tickets, 63% of the cash on the under. I
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: think if you're going to play this game, I think
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: the over makes the most sense, over 8.5. But, I mean,
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: the pitching really looks bad to me in this one.
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: The money is coming in on Detroit, like the real
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: money it looks like. Even though they actually dropped from
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: minus 123 down to like a pick-em here. 56% of tickets,
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: 77% of the cash on Detroit. Detroit has the better bullpen,
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: and as we know, with Hinch as their manager, Detroit,
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: the bullpen game is like a thing that they do.
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: So Detroit is one of the teams that does it
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: the most. It's like them and like Tampa Bay pretty much.
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: Like those are the couple teams that usually kind of
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: do that type of thing the most. Really Detroit over
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: the last couple years though, so Maybe Detroit does win.
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: I think they'll be motivated, though, because Verlander, he's going
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: to be in the Hall of Fame, whatever. If the
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: guys like him, he's back on the team where he started.
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: Detroit might show a little bit of extra effort here
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: to try to win this game, you know what I mean?
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: So maybe that has something to do with the money
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: coming in on Detroit. To me, I don't know if
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: maybe Detroit's getting overhyped, though, because of all this. I
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: think the public, you'd think, would want to bet Detroit here.
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: They just want to do it just for the sentimentality
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: of it. Yeah, let's bet Verlander in his last game.
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man. I like winning. I like money.
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: So that is a game I really don't want to
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: touch over in that game. Makes the most sense to me.
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: But again, remember, we're late in the season here. Cooler temperatures,
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: so some of these games are going to not be
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: as high scoring, but whatever. Yeah, I mean, I didn't
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: think he was going to come back. I have no
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: idea how many innings he's going to pitch in this game.
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: Maybe he has some... I don't know. Like, again, maybe
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: it's like a movie moment and he gets some sort
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: of power from God or something. He goes out there
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: and has like a no-hitter or some shit. Like, that
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: would be insane if that happened. Everybody would love it
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: if that happened, because I feel like nobody dislikes Verlander, really. Unless,
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: you know, it's dudes who are jealous that Verlander is,
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: you know, married to Kate Upton or whatever. But I
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: don't know. I mean, whatever. Cincinnati at Toronto. A couple
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: more teams with nothing to play for. Toronto won the
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: game yesterday 6-5. I thought they had the pitching matchup
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: edge in that game. I think they have the pitching
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: edge in this game as well here today. Toronto does,
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: although Toronto's offense is bad, but so is Cincinnati's, although
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: these teams did put up some runs yesterday. Toronto used
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: five relief pitchers yesterday. Their bullpen is better than Cincinnati's.
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: Cincinnati used three. I would still give Toronto a bullpen
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: edge in this one. Toronto's the 17th ranked bullpen. Their
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: ERA is better than that makes it sound, though. They're
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: not that bad. Cincinnati's definitely worse at 25th. Cincinnati's bullpen
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: ERA is more than a run worse, I think, than Toronto's.
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: Toronto is a terrible offense, though. Number 27, but Cincinnati's
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: not much better at 25. Cincinnati's going with Rhett Lowder here, though,
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: so I think Toronto should get some offense going in
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: this game because He's bad. 6.01 ERA and 1.55 whip.
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: He's awful on the road. 7.44 road ERA. He's been
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: in bad form this month with an ERA over 12
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: this month. He's allowed a ton of hits, way more
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: hits than in his pitch this month. Granted, he's faced
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: all really good offenses, though. Milwaukee, the Dodgers twice, and
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: then the Cubs. So facing Toronto will be a reprieve
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: after all that. But do I think he's actually going
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: to pitch well here? Not really. 13 to 11 strikeout
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: walk ratio this month is also bad, so he does
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: not have command right now. I guess the one good
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: thing is Toronto only has one hitter who's ever faced him,
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: which is Josh Smith. Not the libertarian Josh Smith. Josh
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: Smith is 0 for 2 often with no strikeouts, no walks.
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: Even with the unfamiliarity, I mean, Lowder, he's really no
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: mystery to anybody. I don't think he's going to pitch
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: well here. Toronto's got Trey Savage pitching. He's good. The
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: question here, I think, is how deep is he going
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: to go into this game? He's got a 3.67 ERA, 1.13 whip.
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: He's actually not quite as good at home, 4.2 home ERA,
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: but he has a really low opponent batting average this year.
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: He's been injured a lot of the year, but opponents
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: are batting less than 200 against him, both home and away.
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: His walks have been the main issue for him here.
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: He's got a low hit rate, but his walk rate is.
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: Is kind of high, and his strikeout rate is all right.
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: He's got a two-strikeout walk ratio, which is not really
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: that good. I mean, it's definitely not good. 8.8 strikeout
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: per nine is all right, but his issue is definitely
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: the walks. He's got to figure that out. His last outing,
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: he was okay. He came back off another injury stint,
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: and he went two innings against Baltimore last time out.
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: Gave up one run, but it was a home run
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: against him. It was the only hit he allowed. He
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: had three strikeouts, no walks. Yosavage, generally, I think he
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: is a good pitcher. I mean, he's still young. He's
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: got talent. The Reds have basically never seen him before,
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: except Suarez, who used to be on the Mariners, is
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: 0-3 off him with one walk and two strikeouts. I
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: don't know what we do with all that information. To me,
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: it looks like Toronto does have the upper hand in
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: this game. Like, just throughout this game, they have the
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: better pitching. They look public, though. 90% of tickets, 95%
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: of the cash on them. Maybe the real money is
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: backing them as well. They're around minus 160 something here
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: on the price. So I think the move here is,
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: I guess, to make a minus one run line with
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: Toronto and play this that way. But I don't know
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: how much I would trust it with offenses that really
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: aren't that good here. You don't really know if your
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: Savage is going to get you that deep into this game.
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: They might have him go longer than what he did
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: last time, though. You know, he went two innings last time,
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: kind of ramping him back up. Maybe he'll go closer
• 19:55
  Speaker 3: to five innings this time. I wouldn't expect him to
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: go that much longer than that in this game, though,
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: because Toronto, you know, they don't have reason to overwork
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: him here. You don't want to get your young stud, pitch,
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: or injured. You know what I mean? So I think
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: he'll probably go... My guess would be somewhere around four
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: innings in this game, although you never know. It might
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: depend on pitch count, too. Money's coming in on the
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: over in this game, over eight, eight and a half. Again,
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: I got not a whole lot on this, although you
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: could maybe play Toronto's team total over if you wanted
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: to do it that way, because louder sucks, and Cincinnati's
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: bullpen sucks. So if you wanted to do it that way,
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: even though Toronto's offense also sucks... Maybe they'll be able
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: to do that. You'll need them to score. Maybe you
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: might be able to win that if they get to
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: five in this game, which they were able to yesterday,
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: so I don't know. That is, I guess, an option
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: in that game if you want to do that. Yes,
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: that's Angels in the outfield, although that was a different team, though. Mr. Pinsey,
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: what's up? Yes, are you just replacing the first letter
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: in my name with random letters? Dodgers at San Francisco.
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: This game... I consider putting this one on my card,
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: to be honest. I'm not going to do it, but
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: Dodgers won the game 2-0 yesterday, and I think this
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: game is going to be another under in this game.
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: That would be my guess, but I think it's a
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: little bit questionable how deep these pitchers are going in
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: this game. San Francisco used four relief pitchers yesterday. I
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: don't love their bullpen. Dodgers used two. Uh, giants bullpens,
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: number 24, although they're not as bad as that makes
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: it sound. They have the best ERA out of all
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: these teams surrounding them. At least Dodgers are an okay bullpen.
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: They're number nine, although that makes them sound maybe a
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: little bit better than they probably are. Dodgers. We know
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: they were good offense though. They're number one or excuse me,
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: number two, excuse me. The Cubs are still number one.
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: It's close though. Um, and what am I?
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: What?
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: Oh yeah. San Francisco. They suck offensively. They're number 22. Um,
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: Blake Snell is getting the start for the Dodgers. He's
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: day-to-day right now with a groin issue, and I know
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: they want him to be available in the playoffs, so
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: I don't know how long he's going to go in
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: this game, and that's really the thing. He pitched against
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: the Reds 10 days ago, and he only went one inning,
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: but I think they took him out of that game
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: because he got hurt, and they were having him go
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: full-length starts prior to that, so maybe he will play.
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: go out there and give you a full start this time,
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: although I'm not convinced that he will. They might have
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: him go three innings or so, you know, after a
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: little bit of a layoff here. I think when he's
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: out there, he will pitch well, though. I mean, he's
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: a good pitcher. He has a 1.86 ERA this year
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: in his limited action. 1.09 whip. Snell against the Giants. Giants,
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: only Knisner has ever faced him. He's 0 for 5
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: with four strikeouts, so... Snell is unfamiliar to them. I
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: think Snell is going to do well here. Yes, it is. Family-friendly.
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: What sophomore slump? What are we talking about here? Oh yeah, Sagapolitelli. Dude,
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: I had Cal in that game. Why would you want
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: Clemson in that game? Seriously. Clemson in a game where
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: they're having to play up to like 1.30 in the
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: morning on their biological clocks. A Clemson program that had
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: not played in the Pacific time zone in decades. The
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: last time they played a regular season game anywhere that
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: far out was in the 1960s. So yeah, you could
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: see my analysis on it. I gave out Cal as
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: a play. The professional money was on Cal in that game. Yeah,
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: you got Clemson right. Yeah, they were the right side. Yeah,
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: they won the game. Statistically, I still would not have
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: recommended a bet on Clemson. I'm just saying, man, I'm
• 23:46
  Speaker 3: fucking pissed about it. But I thought Clemson was the
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: right side in that game. Excuse me, I thought Cal
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: was the right side in that game. I saw no
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: reason to play Clemson in that game. Clemson is ass.
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: Sweeney is going to get fucking fired. You know, whatever.
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: uh matt wilkinson is pitching for san francisco here the
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: tugboat he's been actually pretty good 3.65 era 1.01 whip
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: he's canadian though so i don't know um he had
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: a five inning shutout last time out against the dodgers
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: by the way five inning three hit shutout with no
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: walks six strikeouts and in fact he is not allowed
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: to run in his last three appearances although uh His
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: two prior appearances were shorter, but he's pitching well right now.
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: He has not a lot of walk in those outings either,
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: so he's in good form right now. The question is.
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: Is he actually good or, you know, was this unfamiliarity
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: that helped him here? And now that the Dodgers just
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: saw him, will the Dodgers do better against him? That's
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: what you got to kind of figure out in this game.
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: Cause I think a lot of times these young pitchers,
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: when offenses are not familiar with them, the offenses could struggle,
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: but then getting to see him a second time right away,
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: they'll make adjustments and know what they're going to see
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: this time and maybe hit him better. But then you
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: could also argue that, well, Wilkinson doesn't have to be
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: this good, uh, to be good enough you know again
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: in this game to get this game to go under
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: or something like that wilkinson i mean his hit rate
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: is fairly low his walk rate's really low he basically
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: doesn't walk anybody his strikeout rate is not really high
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: either though he's not a strikeout pitcher even though he's
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: a big guy um he does have a 4.5 strikeout
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: walk ratio though which is good 6.6 case for nine
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: is uh not very good Dodgers are 2-for-16 off him
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: right now. The only extra base hit was Rojas with
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: a double. Six strikeouts, no walks, 125 average here, 312 OPS. Yeah,
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: I mean, I still think under is the move if
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: you're going to play this game. I have some concerns
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: about it, but the total is 7.5, which is oddsmakers
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: telling you they think it'll be pretty low scoring. It's
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: a pitcher-friendly park in San Francisco. Northern California you know
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: might be a little bit cooler there this time of
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: year that helps the under as well balls were really
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: getting knocked down in Fenway yesterday by the way so
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: yeah like it was a wind blowing in situation in
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: Fenway yesterday even though the wind is not really usually
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: that much of a factor in Fenway but when there's
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: a nor'easter about to come in it becomes a little
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: bit more of a factor and I think it was
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: mostly in the night game yesterday that it was but
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: 73% of tickets and 93% of the cash are on
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: the under in this game. I agree with that. The
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: Dodgers are way too heavy of a favorite, I think,
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: at minus 330-something. They really don't have anything to play
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: for at this point. I think the Dodgers are locked
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: into the number two seed in the NL. I mean,
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: you can correct me if I'm wrong about that, but
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: I don't really think they have anything to really gain
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: by winning this game. 77% of tickets, 71% of the
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: cash on them. With a pitching matchup that looks kind
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: of close, too, yeah. I mean, that price looks ridiculous.
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: There's no way that I would try to play the
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: Dodgers in that game. So do what you want with
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: all that. The tugboat's getting disrespected, man, in the market.
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: Do what you want with all that info, I guess.
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: But that's what I got to say about that. I
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: did forget to go over Louder's overall numbers, by the way,
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: for Cincinnati, just real quick. He's got way too high
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: of a hit rate, by the way, and his walk
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: rate also sucks, and his strikeout rate also sucks. So, again,
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: if you wanted Toronto's team total over or something like
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: that in this game, this is more ammunition for that case. 1.9
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio, 7.1 strikeout per nine. Those are not
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: good numbers, okay? So, yeah, that's all I got on that. Although,
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: did I look at Yosavage's numbers? Oh, no, I did. Yeah,
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: that's right. He had kind of a low strikeout walk ratio.
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: Are Indiana fraudulent? I mean, they're not going to win
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: the championship this year. That's what I'll say about that.
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: I think they're like a top-five team. Their defense is
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: still really good. I said going into this season they
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: were not going to be as good as last year. Hoover, yeah,
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: I don't trust Hoover. He played in the Big 12
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: last year. There are bad defenses in that conference. Now
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: that he's facing Big 10 defenses, yeah, I expected him
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: to do a little bit worse. I think Northwestern might
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: not be as bad as people think they are either.
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: Maybe that was a weird fluke game, though. I have
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: no idea, but I don't know. I had almost no
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: opinion on that game. I had a slight lean towards
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: Northwestern in that one. I was only right about that
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: game and Army out of the four yesterday, and those
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: are my two weaker opinions. So Northwestern was my weakest.
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: I don't know. But, no, I mean, I think Indiana–
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: I would be, well, I don't know. You know what?
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: I mean, there's a chance Indiana doesn't make the playoffs.
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: I was going to say, I'd be surprised if they
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: don't make the playoffs. I don't know if I'd be
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: that surprised by that. A lot of people would, but
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I mean, there's, there's the potential. They
• 28:58
  Speaker 3: don't make the playoffs. Um, no, the, the nor'easter looks
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: like a complete dud right now. Like it's, we're not
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: in the worst part of it yet, which is supposed
• 29:10
  Speaker 3: to be later today, but it's, it's been nothing so far. Um, Yeah,
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: I don't know exactly what they're doing. Are they playing
• 29:19
  Speaker 3: in their new stadium now? I know they had a
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: new stadium being built, and they were playing in a
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: temporary stadium. They might be in their new stadium this year.
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: I should probably figure that out. I don't know what
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: they're doing. I don't know who their coach is now, whatever.
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: But I don't think they should have fired Pat Fitzgerald, though.
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: I think he's a good coach, and they fired him
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: for some sort of impromptu. I can't remember what it is.
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: And I believe he's going to improve the Michigan State
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: program being there. But let me see. Atlanta, Miami. I
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: don't want this show to take too long, man. This game,
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: this pitching matchup looks ridiculous. I mean, this is going
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: to be a bullpen game for both teams here. Teams
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: don't really have anything to play for here. I mean,
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: Miami might have a little bit more motivation because they
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: want to get some wins here at the end of
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: the season against their divisional rival, who is obviously in
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: the playoffs. Atlanta is. Atlanta, I think, is locked into
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: the number three seat in the playoffs. Miami won the
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: game three to nothing yesterday, although sometimes when a team
• 30:17
  Speaker 3: gets shut out, they will kind of bounce back in
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: the next game. But Atlanta doesn't have a whole lot
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: of reason to be motivated here in this one. Atlanta
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: used two relief pitchers yesterday. Miami used none, it looks like.
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: Is that right? So the bullpens look like they're going
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: to set up nicely for bullpen games in this game,
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: I guess. Atlanta does have a good bullpen. They're number
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: two in bullpen, really probably number three or four, but
• 30:42
  Speaker 3: having a bullpen game from them might actually work for them.
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: miami number 11 they're not as good of a bullpen
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: so probably you're going to get a little bit of
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: an advantage from atlanta if both teams are going with
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: bullpen games here atlanta is the better offense in my
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: opinion they're number 15 miami is ranked seventh tied with
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: houston but i'm still not buying it man uh but
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: this will be a more pitcher friendly park here i
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: still don't buy miami's offense i'm sorry but this uh
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: Matchup here looks like it's going to be two bullpen games.
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: Brent Suter, the old guy, is going to be pitching
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: for Atlanta. He's been okay as one of their relief
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: pitchers this year. He's going to be an opener. I
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: think it's going to depend on who he's matching up against,
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: how long he's going to go here. Probably one to
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: two innings or so, and then it's going to be
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: a Braves bullpen game. Suter has really bad numbers against Miami,
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: but it's in a really small sample size. I think
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: Atlanta's bullpen, because it is a good bullpen, it might
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: work out okay in this game. Jack Ralston on the
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: other side looks like he's going to be the opener
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: in a Miami bullpen game. He's a relief pitcher. He's
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: been kind of mediocre. He's the younger of the two
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: pitchers here. The Braves have never faced him before, but
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: I don't really know if that matters a whole lot here.
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: He's He's probably also going to go about one to
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: two innings here. My first instinct, because I hate bullpen games,
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: was to lean over the eight and a half in
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: this game, but maybe that's not the way to do this.
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: The money looks like it's backing the under, but the
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: money also looks like it's backing Miami. 80% of tickets,
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: 69% of the cash on Atlanta, so the money is
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: fading Atlanta at around minus 120 now is what they're
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: priced at. I mean, like I said, Atlanta does not
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: have motivation. So from a motivational standpoint, because Miami only
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: has one game left after today, while Atlanta will be
• 32:27
  Speaker 3: looking ahead to the playoffs potentially, it might be a
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: bit dangerous to try to play Atlanta here, but they
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: have the better bullpen. So if it's a bullpen game,
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: bullpen game situation, I would... Something, you know, that makes
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: me think Atlanta should somehow get out of that game
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: with a win, but the motivation just isn't really there, so...
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: Do what you want with all that. That game looks ugly, though.
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: To me, I mean, just the way that I look
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: at things, I still might prefer the over in that
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: game to anything else because I just hate bullpen games,
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: so I don't know. First game of their new stadium
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: is against Penn State. Interesting. That'll be a big game
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: for Northwestern, yeah. Problem is, Northwestern is going to be
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: in a bad spot because look at what they just
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: did last night. So I said last night on my
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: show that I wanted to potentially fade Northwestern in their
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: next game. Now that I know it's against Penn State,
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: I don't think I will. But because they are going to,
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: I mean, they're going to get up for that game
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: if it's their home opener in their new stadium. But
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: I don't want to play on Northwestern either after the
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: performance they had last night hanging with Indiana. Even though
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: they'll have an extra day off or whatever. that's probably
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: a game that's not going to make the cut for me.
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: Seems that way. If Northwestern was playing somebody else next
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: week and it was a different situation, I'd be looking
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: to fade them. All right, let's see. Texas and Minnesota.
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: Texas and Houston, man, one of these teams has to
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: win the division, and these teams both seem like they
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: don't want to. Both teams lost yesterday. Minnesota won in
• 34:08
  Speaker 3: a blowout as Jacob deGrom lost. I don't know what
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: happened to him, man. He was not good in that
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: game yesterday. And, of course, because I didn't have a
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: play on the game, of course, that meant that Joe
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: Ryan had no pressure on him, no pressure for him
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: to perform for me. And he pitched well in the
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: game yesterday, it looks like. Minnesota with a blowout win,
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: 10-2 in that game yesterday. Texas has got to be
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: the team with more motivation here, man. I mean, if
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: they lose this game, they're eliminated. I'm pretty sure that's
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: the case because I think Houston has the tiebreaker. So
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: if Texas loses this game, I think they're currently tied
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: with Houston, right? Or no, I guess if Texas loses
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: and Houston loses, then I guess Texas is still alive
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: going into tomorrow. So I guess I'm wrong about that slightly. Yeah,
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: because they're tied. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But Houston does have
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: the tiebreaker here. So, yeah, I mean, Texas is pretty
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: much in must-win territory here, though. But both teams lost yesterday.
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: Both teams seem like they don't even want it. On
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: the surface, it looks like Texas does have the better
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: starting pitcher in this game, but when you look at
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: the matchups and stuff, it doesn't look that great for
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: them here. Minnesota used three relief pitchers yesterday. Their bullpen
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: is bad, but I don't like Texas' bullpen either this year.
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: Texas used two guys out of their bullpen. Texas is
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: number 20 in bullpen. That's not good. Minnesota's even worse
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: at 28. These are bullpens I would probably want to
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: avoid unless I was fading them. um let me say
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: minnesota offensively they're the better team but where are they
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: at right now they're number 16 so they've dropped a
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: little bit recently offensively texas is number 20 texas not
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: that good offensively uh nathan evaldi's pitching for texas here
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: generally he's pretty good uh this year has not been
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: anywhere near as good as what he did last year
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: though he's got a 4.27 era 1.21 whip. He's had
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: issues with some home runs this year and stuff. He's
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: not as good on the road either, 4.39 road ERA.
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: He's not in good form right now either. He's just
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: not going deep into his outings. I don't know if
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: he's hurt or I don't know what the deal is here,
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: but his strikeout rate's been down recently. He's not really
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: walking anybody, but he's been too hittable. He gave up
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: three runs in one inning last time out against the Mets.
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: I have no clue what's going on with him. they're
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: going to need him to be an actual starter if
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: they think they're going to do anything in the playoffs
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: here so I don't know this is it doesn't look
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: good for him right now as far as current form
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: and Minnesota they only have four hitters who have faced
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: him 16 at bats but they do have good numbers
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: here 375 average 812 OPS 2-0 strikeout walk ratio it's
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: a small sample so I wouldn't put that much weight
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: into that but I don't know, man. I mean, there
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: are things that are scary about backing Evaldi here, and
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: those numbers don't make it any better, really. He's got
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: a decent hit rate at least here. He's allowed too
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: many home runs to some extent, even though he's not
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: really a fly ball pitcher. His walk rate's pretty low.
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: His strikeout rate is pretty good, so those numbers are
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: not bad. 4.3 strikeout walk ratio's pretty good. Not as
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: good as what he did last year by any means,
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: but you know, I mean, still pretty good. A 9
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: strikeout per 9 isn't bad either, so... He's not really
• 37:27
  Speaker 3: a bad pitcher, but his current form and the matchup
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: numbers don't really look that good for him here, and
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: the fact that he's not as good on the road
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: makes that not look good either. Bailey Ober is pitching
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: for Minnesota. He's been all right, a 4.21 ERA, 1.26 whip.
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: He's been better at home. He's significantly better at home, 3.3
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: home ERA, and that's where he's pitching today. His last
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: time out, I don't know why he only went three
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: innings last time out, but he had a three-inning shutout
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: going on against Anaheim. And I don't know why he
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: didn't pitch deeper into that game. But, I mean, he
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: was good when he was out there in that one.
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: He's been okay in his recent outings here. Yeah, I mean,
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: he's been pretty much decent for a while now for
• 38:09
  Speaker 3: the recent stretch here. His hit rate's okay. His walk
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: rate is pretty low. His strikeout rate is not high, though.
• 38:16
  Speaker 3: He's not really a strikeout pitcher at this point. His
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: strikeout numbers are worse this year than they ever have been, actually.
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: But some of his numbers are not too bad. 2.5
• 38:25
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio is nothing great, though. 6.5 case per
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: nine is also not great. He's not too good against
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: Texas either. And 49 at-bats, 245 average is pretty low.
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: But an 837 OPS is pretty high. 13 to 6
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio, not really that good either. You know,
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: I mean, my first, like when I started digging into
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: the matchups here, That had me leaning Minnesota first five here.
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't like their bullpen, but Ober has
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: the better home road splits, and he does have the
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: better matchup stats here as well. So I think Minnesota
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: first five does make a little bit of sense in
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: this game, even though Texas needs to win. But because
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: they need to win, you're having to pay a favorite
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: road price on them here. 72% of tickets, 82% of
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: the cash on Texas, though, so it does look like
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: they're kind of getting the money here. I don't really
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: love that. I would... I'm still going to leave Minnesota
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: first five here, but maybe the better way to play
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: this is just play the over. uh the total is
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: not that high it's eight basically but 69 of tickets
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: on the under 82 of the cash on the over
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: the matchup numbers don't look great for either pitcher here
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: and both pitchers are a little bit questionable and then
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: if you go full game you also get two bullpens
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: that i don't like so The over might be the
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: thing that makes the most sense in that game. A
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: little over-over, but I have concerns about that too because
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: over is generally pretty good at home. Next game, Cleveland-Kansas City.
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: Cleveland is in the playoffs, and they're one game ahead
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: of Chicago right now as far as winning the AL Central,
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: which they would like to do that, of course, because
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: then they get a home series in the playoffs. Or
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: would they? I guess they.
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: Is that how it works? I forget. No, I forget
• 40:15
  Speaker 3: how it works now because there's like a wild card round.
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: And then, I guess the number one seed has a bye.
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: And then, yeah, so I guess they would play one
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: of the wild card teams. Or no, the number two
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: team is going to play the wild. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: There are three wild cards. What am I saying? So, yeah,
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: Cleveland would play one of the wild cards. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Anyway, right. So, yeah, right. So,
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: the wild card out of this division... which would be
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: the last wild card spot. I don't know. I forget
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: how it sets up, man. Baseball playoffs make no sense
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: to me now. You would think that it would be
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: like because seven teams make it now. Okay, well, the
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: number one seed gets a bye. The other six teams play.
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: You'd think it would be like two versus seven, three
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: versus six, and four versus five, right? But I think
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: it's not that. I think that's not the case. Although, actually, no,
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: it is, I guess, because Red Sox and Yankees will
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: be the 4-5. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I don't know.
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: I'm just trying to think of who these matchups might be,
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: but whatever. I think what I was trying to say
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: was that Cleveland might not have a ton of motivation
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: here because at least they know they're already in the playoffs.
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: They did win yesterday 12-9 against the Royals here. Very
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: high-scoring game, which I did not think was going to
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: be the case. I liked the under play. in some
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: capacity in that game and yeah that did not happen
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: I don't know what happened with those pitchers yesterday I
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: liked I kind of liked the under in the game
• 41:44
  Speaker 3: today too until I started looking into the matchups and
• 41:47
  Speaker 3: after that I really didn't but yeah Cleveland and Chicago
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: one of them is going to win the AL Central
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: the other one is going to be one of the
• 41:52
  Speaker 3: wild cards that's pretty much what you need to know
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: but being being a wild card is not the end
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: of the world though so Cleveland You know, their motivation
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: is not at the highest here, even though they would
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: like to win their division, but they already have a
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: one-game lead over the White Sox with two games to go,
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: so they're in a decent position here. Kansas City will
• 42:11
  Speaker 3: try to play spoiler here, so I think Kansas City
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: will show up with motivation here. Cleveland's got the better bullpen,
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: but they used a lot of guys out of it yesterday.
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: They used six relief pitchers, so I don't really want
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: to touch their bullpen here in this one. Kansas City,
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: I never want to deal with their bullpen. They used
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: four guys out of their bullpen yesterday. Kansas City's number
• 42:32
  Speaker 3: 30 out of 30, but again, I think they're better
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: than the A's, but worse than everybody else. They're still
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: a really bad bullpen, though. Cleveland is a pretty good bullpen.
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: They're all the way up to 10th right now, and
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: their ERA out of the bullpen is pretty good, but
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: the usage yesterday worries me about Cleveland's bullpen. Cleveland's offense
• 42:51
  Speaker 3: is still bad. They're number 28. The Royals are number 17,
• 42:54
  Speaker 3: tied with the Red Sox now, as the Red Sox
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: have plummeted offensively recently. Even though they won both games yesterday,
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: there was not a lot of offense in either game there.
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: What was I about to say? Oh, yeah, Cleveland's got
• 43:07
  Speaker 3: Tanner Bybee pitching here. He's been okay, 4.35 ERA, 1.22 whip.
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: He's definitely better than his win-loss record would suggest. He's
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: actually a little bit better on the road, 4.22 road ERA.
• 43:20
  Speaker 3: But then I started looking at his recent form. I'm like, wow,
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: he has not been good recently. He just got really
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: knocked around by the A's in his last start. They
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: still somehow won that game. He didn't get the win.
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: He didn't even make it five innings. And it was
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: not in the A's stadium, by the way. That was
• 43:36
  Speaker 3: at home. That's not a good sign that he got
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: battered by the A's like that. Three of his last
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: four starts have been bad. And two of them were
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: against Baltimore and Toronto. So he's doing this against some
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: not so good offenses either. So Bybee right now is
• 43:51
  Speaker 3: not in good form. That worries me because generally I
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: do like him and I think he's all right. He's
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: got a pretty low hit rate on the season. His
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: walk rate's not horrible. Does give up too many home
• 44:01
  Speaker 3: runs though. And His strikeout rate has gone down this year.
• 44:05
  Speaker 3: That's been kind of an issue for him. The strikeouts
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: are just not really there right now. 2.6 strikeout walk ratio,
• 44:10
  Speaker 3: not that good. 7 strikeout per 9, not really that
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: good either. But I was like, well, he's got to
• 44:15
  Speaker 3: be good against the Royals, right? I mean, he's okay
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: against the Royals. And 155 at-bats, 239 average allowed, 738 OPS.
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: He's given up some home runs to them. 32 strikeouts,
• 44:28
  Speaker 3: 15 walks is not really a good ratio either. I
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: would say he's kind of mediocre against the Royals, but
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: the thing that worries me the most about him is
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: he's in bad form right now. And with Kansas City
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: having moved the walls in and Bybee being kind of
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: a home run conducive pitcher, it doesn't really look that
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: good for him here. Michael Walker is getting the start
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: for Kansas City. And I think if you're going to
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: back Kansas City, you're really only going to do it
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: in a game where he's pitching for the most part
• 44:53
  Speaker 3: because Walker, I think he continues to just be a
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: guy the recreational bettors never want to bet on because
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: he's not, you know, he doesn't have electric stuff, but
• 45:03
  Speaker 3: he's always pretty good. He's got a 3.33 ERA, 1.11 whip.
• 45:08
  Speaker 3: So he's the guy that the professional betters do like
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: to back. I think for the most part, 2.93 home ERA.
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: So he's good at home despite them moving the walls
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: and his current form. Yeah. I mean, his walk numbers
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: have not been that good this month and his team
• 45:24
  Speaker 3: has lost his last three outings, but Some of that's
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: not his fault. He's getting no run support here. He
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: hasn't really allowed that many runs here, so he's not
• 45:31
  Speaker 3: really pitching that badly. He's pitching better than Bybee is
• 45:34
  Speaker 3: right now. He's got a low hit rate on the season.
• 45:37
  Speaker 3: His walk rate's not bad. Does also kind of allow
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: too many home runs here, though. But that hasn't hurt
• 45:43
  Speaker 3: him in this ballpark, really. His strikeout rate is also low.
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: He doesn't really strike guys out. 2.9 strikeout walk ratio
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: is not too bad, though, because he doesn't really walk guys,
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: despite his name. I always make that joke. 7.1 strikeout
• 45:57
  Speaker 3: per nine. Yeah, not anything to write home about. But,
• 46:01
  Speaker 3: you know, he's still a good pitcher, though. Against Cleveland,
• 46:05
  Speaker 3: he does actually have good numbers at 145 at-bats. 221
• 46:09
  Speaker 3: average allowed, 577 OPS. 31 to 12 strikeout walk ratio.
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: That could be better, but the rest of these numbers
• 46:16
  Speaker 3: are solid. So his matchup numbers look better. Walker's in
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: a somewhat better form here. Kansas City, first five. I
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: think that might be the best play on the board,
• 46:26
  Speaker 3: to be honest, on the baseball board. I'm considering it.
• 46:31
  Speaker 3: I still don't really think I want to do it.
• 46:34
  Speaker 3: But I think if you're going to make any baseball
• 46:35
  Speaker 3: play today, I think that's what I would do. You're
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: going to get around a pick-em price on this. The
• 46:40
  Speaker 3: full game is around a pick-em. But I think first five,
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: Kansas City is probably going to be a little bit
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: of a favorite in the first five. But I think
• 46:48
  Speaker 3: that's still what I would do is whatever the money
• 46:49
  Speaker 3: line is, it won't be that expensive. Kansas City first
• 46:53
  Speaker 3: five money line would be my recommendation in this game.
• 46:56
  Speaker 3: And if you're playing any baseball game, I think that
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: would be the best play on this whole board here.
• 47:01
  Speaker 3: It's an ugly board. 55% of the tickets on Cleveland,
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: 70% of the cash on Kansas City. So the market
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: read seems to agree with it. I agree with myself
• 47:11
  Speaker 3: on that. Those are my thoughts on that one. Colorado
• 47:14
  Speaker 3: at the White Sox. The White Sox might have a
• 47:16
  Speaker 3: little bit more motivation here. I think they've clinched a
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: playoff spot, though. So, again, for them, it's a matter
• 47:23
  Speaker 3: of they could still win this division, although I think
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: it's not too likely at this point. Although they're playing
• 47:29
  Speaker 3: the Rockies here, which, you know, Chicago won yesterday, of course,
• 47:33
  Speaker 3: and the Rockies are not good. So Chicago has one
• 47:37
  Speaker 3: of the weakest opponents out of anybody over the weekend here.
• 47:42
  Speaker 3: White Sox making the playoffs just in general, though, is
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: kind of crazy, given how historically bad they were last year.
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: I think they were worse than the Rockies last year,
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: if I remember correctly. The White Sox used three relief
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: pitchers yesterday. Their bullpen is actually not too bad at
• 47:58
  Speaker 3: this point. The Rockies' bullpen is not good. Rockies only
• 48:02
  Speaker 3: used two guys out of the bullpen. My man, Bernardino,
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: who used to be on the Red Sox, he threw
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: three pitches yesterday. The White Sox, they're 16th in bullpen,
• 48:14
  Speaker 3: but their ERA is pretty good. They're definitely the better bullpen.
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: The Rockies are number 26. Rockies are the better offense
• 48:20
  Speaker 3: at number 5, but the White Sox are pretty good
• 48:22
  Speaker 3: offensively as well, tied in 9th. Colorado's going with Jose
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: Quintana here, who's an aging veteran pitcher. He's had a
• 48:32
  Speaker 3: decent career. He looked pretty good when he was on Milwaukee,
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: but Being on Colorado, you know what it does to pitchers, man.
• 48:38
  Speaker 3: I mean, he hasn't pitched that much this year, but
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: it has not gone well for him. 5.4 ERA, 1.51 whip,
• 48:45
  Speaker 3: really bad. He's actually been worse on the road. 6.75
• 48:49
  Speaker 3: road ERA, not good. He was hurt for a large
• 48:52
  Speaker 3: chunk of the season. He came back against Seattle, who's
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: a very weak offense. That game was in Coors Field.
• 48:59
  Speaker 3: He did not pitch well in that game. against an
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: offense that hasn't really been doing a whole lot, that's
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: not a great sign, so Quintana, you know, I mean,
• 49:07
  Speaker 3: I guess maybe you gotta give him a little bit
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: of a break, because he was coming off the injured list, whatever,
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: but I like veteran pitchers coming off the injured list,
• 49:13
  Speaker 3: I think they usually come out and pitch, I think
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: they pitch well more often than they don't, but he
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: did not really have it in that start we'll see
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: though I mean he's he is what he is man
• 49:25
  Speaker 3: I mean he's an aging junk pitcher for the most
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: part here but he did have some some good or
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: at least one season with Milwaukee that was good if
• 49:32
  Speaker 3: I remember correctly yeah that was last year yeah he
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: was actually pretty good for Milwaukee last year but This
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: is Colorado, man. His numbers against the White Sox are
• 49:42
  Speaker 3: not horrible, but they're not great either. 65 at-bats here,
• 49:46
  Speaker 3: 246 average allowed. That's not bad, but 767 OPS is
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: a little bit high. So they've hit him for some
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: power here. They do have four home runs off him
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: from four different hitters. Only six of their hitters have
• 49:58
  Speaker 3: faced him. And hilariously, one of them is a pitcher,
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: Sean Newcomb, and in his one at-bat against Quintana, he
• 50:05
  Speaker 3: somehow drew a walk. Okay.
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 50:08
  Speaker 3: He's not going to be in the lineup, though, needless
• 50:10
  Speaker 3: to say. 12 strikeouts, four walks here. Decent ratio, I guess,
• 50:16
  Speaker 3: but I don't really trust Quintana. Davis Martin has been
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: the better of the two pitchers this year, pitching for
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: the White Sox here. He looked really good early in
• 50:24
  Speaker 3: the season. Not so much more recently, though. He's got
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: a 3.84 ERA overall, 1.29 whip. That's not too bad.
• 50:29
  Speaker 3: He's been good at home, 2.9 home ERA overall. He's
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: been a little bit better recently. Again, he really has
• 50:38
  Speaker 3: not allowed many runs recently. He's allowed two earned runs
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: in his last 20 and a third innings pitched. That's good,
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: but they've been kind of limiting his pitches. I mean,
• 50:46
  Speaker 3: maybe trying to get him ready for the playoffs, not
• 50:48
  Speaker 3: overworking him, whatever. He's been pitching fairly well, but his
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: strikeout rate has gone way down recently, and maybe that's
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: a little bit of a concern. The advanced analytics guys
• 50:59
  Speaker 3: definitely won't like that. So I think he's taking a
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: little bit off his stuff to try to sort of
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: maintain his arm a little bit more here. I don't know,
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: but he hasn't allowed that many runs, so that's at
• 51:09
  Speaker 3: least good for him here. He's faced a couple of
• 51:11
  Speaker 3: good offenses in that stretch. His hit rate is not great.
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: It's close to one per inning. His strikeout rate is
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: not really that great either. His walk rate's okay. So
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: I think he's a mediocre pitcher. 2.7 strikeout walk ratio.
• 51:25
  Speaker 3: I think he's not as good as what he looked
• 51:26
  Speaker 3: like early in the season. 7.5 strikeout per nine. Those
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: numbers are not really that good. Colorado basically hasn't seen him, though.
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: Two hitters have faced him. McCarthy and Norby, who seem
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: like kind of the usual suspects in this series. McCarthy
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: has one hit against him, a single. They were combined
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: one for four off him with one strikeout and no walks.
• 51:48
  Speaker 3: The White Sox should win this game, but if you
• 51:51
  Speaker 3: want the White Sox, you've got to pay a huge price.
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: They're minus 230-something, minus 240-something. I don't think it's playable
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: anywhere near that price. 91% of the tickets and 69%
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: of the cash on them. So the money is fading
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: the White Sox here in this one. I don't really
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: want any part of Colorado either here. The money seems
• 52:09
  Speaker 3: to be kind of backing the under eight and a
• 52:10
  Speaker 3: half or eight here as well. I don't think I'd
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: want that either. I think, I don't know what I think, man.
• 52:19
  Speaker 3: I mean, White Sox team total over might be an
• 52:21
  Speaker 3: option here. I really don't think Quintana's that good. He
• 52:24
  Speaker 3: didn't look good his last time out. He's not really
• 52:29
  Speaker 3: a mystery at this point because he's been around for
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: so long. Hitters know who he is at this point
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: at the very least. Maybe the White Sox get there
• 52:36
  Speaker 3: with that one. You'll need them to score at least
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: five runs, though, if you want to go that way. Which,
• 52:41
  Speaker 3: I mean, they're a good offense, and they're going up
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: against some not good pitching, so maybe they could get
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: that done in that one. All right, let me see here.
• 52:50
  Speaker 3: I'm going to take a break at some point. I
• 52:52
  Speaker 3: don't know. There aren't as many games today because of
• 52:54
  Speaker 3: all the, uh, nor'easter stuff going on here in the
• 52:58
  Speaker 3: double headers yesterday. Oh, you agree with me? Dirty sock.
• 53:01
  Speaker 3: What's up? Yes. Thanks for hanging out. Rocky mountain high.
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: Is that a, that's, I feel like that's, what is that?
• 53:09
  Speaker 3: John Denver? Maybe is that his song? I don't know.
• 53:11
  Speaker 3: I don't listen to John Denver. Um, Not my thing
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: at all. What is it? It's lame folk rock.
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: I like some folk stuff, but I like there to
• 53:21
  Speaker 3: be an edge to it. St. Louis at Milwaukee. Milwaukee
• 53:26
  Speaker 3: won again yesterday, even though they were in a return
• 53:28
  Speaker 3: home spot. They don't even need to win at this point,
• 53:30
  Speaker 3: I don't think. I'm pretty sure Milwaukee has the number
• 53:32
  Speaker 3: one seed wrapped up here, but they won anyway yesterday.
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: Will they win again today? I don't know. I think
• 53:39
  Speaker 3: I did lean over in the game yesterday, and the
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: over was correct in the game yesterday. This game, I mean,
• 53:44
  Speaker 3: the starting pitching, it's a little bit hard to figure
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: out in this game. The bullpen, Milwaukee has a better bullpen.
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: They used three guys out of the bullpen yesterday. St. Louis,
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: not really a good bullpen. They used four. Milwaukee will
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: have a bullpen edge here. They're number seven. They're better
• 54:00
  Speaker 3: than that, though. They're like a top three bullpen, probably.
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: St.
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: Louis, not even close. Number 22. Milwaukee is also the
• 54:10
  Speaker 3: better offense. They're sitting at fourth right now offensively.
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: St.
• 54:13
  Speaker 3: Louis is 26th.
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: St.
• 54:17
  Speaker 3: Louis is going with Quinn Matthews. He's an interesting case.
• 54:22
  Speaker 3: He's been okay this year. He's a young guy. I
• 54:25
  Speaker 3: think this has been his rookie season. He's got a 3.65 ERA. 1.38
• 54:27
  Speaker 3: whip isn't really that good, though, and he's not really
• 54:31
  Speaker 3: that good on the road. 4.68 road ERA. pitches better
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: in St. Louis' pitcher-friendly home park. However, he's been pretty
• 54:41
  Speaker 3: good over his last five starts. He's allowed three or
• 54:43
  Speaker 3: fewer earned runs in all of them, and he's gone
• 54:45
  Speaker 3: at least five innings in all of them. He's gone
• 54:47
  Speaker 3: five and two-thirds or more in four out of the five.
• 54:50
  Speaker 3: Faced a couple of good offenses in there, too. His
• 54:53
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio hasn't been that good over that span, though.
• 54:57
  Speaker 3: But he's pitched, I would say, generally pretty good over
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: this stretch. So he's in okay form right now for sure.
• 55:03
  Speaker 3: His hit rate is still not really that great on
• 55:05
  Speaker 3: the season. His walk rate is not great either. His
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: strikeout rate is okay. So those numbers make him look
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: kind of mediocre. 2.2 strikeout walk ratio is really not
• 55:14
  Speaker 3: that good. 7.9 strikeouts per nine, not really that good either.
• 55:19
  Speaker 3: If he gets his walk number down a bit more,
• 55:21
  Speaker 3: he should be good. One thing he does have going
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: for him, besides he is in good current form, is
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: that Milwaukee's never seen him before. So he does have
• 55:29
  Speaker 3: the upper hand possibly there in that he's unfamiliar to Milwaukee.
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: So maybe they will struggle to figure him out at first.
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: So I don't hate Matthews coming into this game. Dustin
• 55:40
  Speaker 3: May is getting the start for Milwaukee. He's not great, 4.67 ERA, 1.32 WIP.
• 55:47
  Speaker 3: He is better at home, though, 3.87 home ERA. However,
• 55:51
  Speaker 3: I would take that with a little bit of a
• 55:54
  Speaker 3: grain of salt because he started the season with St. Louis.
• 55:58
  Speaker 3: They have a pitcher-friendly home stadium, so some of that
• 56:00
  Speaker 3: was with St.
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: Louis.
• 56:02
  Speaker 3: But he was traded from St. Louis at the trade deadline.
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: He's been with Milwaukee since then. He hasn't really been
• 56:10
  Speaker 3: as good with Milwaukee, although this month he's been a
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: little bit better. His command numbers have definitely been good
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: this month. 17-4 strikeout walk ratio. Now, the other good
• 56:19
  Speaker 3: thing about this is that he's facing the team that
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: got rid of him for the first time. And, you know,
• 56:24
  Speaker 3: I talk about that. That can be a motivator for
• 56:26
  Speaker 3: a pitcher because... They tend to go out and they
• 56:29
  Speaker 3: tend to be motivated and they want to prove something
• 56:31
  Speaker 3: against the team that let them go. You know what
• 56:33
  Speaker 3: I mean? Like, oh, you thought I wasn't good enough? Well,
• 56:35
  Speaker 3: now I'm on a better team and fuck you. Now
• 56:38
  Speaker 3: I'm going to pitch well against you. So May might
• 56:40
  Speaker 3: have a little bit of an extra motivating factor here
• 56:43
  Speaker 3: in this game facing the team that just threw him away.
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: So possibly. I worry about his... Innings pitched in his
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: last couple games. He hasn't gone deep into either of
• 56:56
  Speaker 3: his last two outings. So his current form really isn't
• 56:59
  Speaker 3: that good, except he had one really good start against Cincinnati.
• 57:02
  Speaker 3: But that's kind of skewing his numbers a bit because
• 57:05
  Speaker 3: his other recent outings, he hasn't gone more than four
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: and a third innings in any of them, going back
• 57:12
  Speaker 3: into mid-August. So I don't fully trust May right now.
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: St.
• 57:17
  Speaker 3: Louis only has two hitters we've ever faced him before because,
• 57:19
  Speaker 3: of course, he was on their team until recently. Burleson
• 57:22
  Speaker 3: and Gorman are 0-4 often with a strikeout and a walk.
• 57:27
  Speaker 3: I mean, this game, it does kind of seem like
• 57:30
  Speaker 3: maybe the best way to play this game is to
• 57:32
  Speaker 3: take it under, though. The total looks like it's getting
• 57:35
  Speaker 3: a lot of tickets on the over. 91% of tickets,
• 57:38
  Speaker 3: 94% of the cash. It's basically a public over. Total's 7.5,
• 57:42
  Speaker 3: so the odds makers seem to think this will be
• 57:44
  Speaker 3: a lower-scoring game with a total like that. I think
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: that probably is the approach in this game is to
• 57:50
  Speaker 3: play the under. I don't really want to do it
• 57:53
  Speaker 3: given how many question marks there are there, though. Don't
• 57:55
  Speaker 3: like St. Louis' bullpen either, so I guess you could
• 57:58
  Speaker 3: also make the argument for the first five under, but
• 58:01
  Speaker 3: given that at least one of the bullpens is good,
• 58:04
  Speaker 3: the bullpens are at least not totally taxed here, and
• 58:08
  Speaker 3: you get that hook on that key number seven for
• 58:11
  Speaker 3: the full game. full game under might be the approach
• 58:16
  Speaker 3: that I would lean, you know, the way that I
• 58:17
  Speaker 3: would lean in this game, but I don't know. Um,
• 58:20
  Speaker 3: that's the best I got on this game. At least
• 58:22
  Speaker 3: as far as the side, I mean, Milwaukee is a
• 58:24
  Speaker 3: minus one 90 favorite. It's probably not justified a 75%
• 58:28
  Speaker 3: of tickets, 76% of the cash on Milwaukee here.
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 58:31
  Speaker 3: They have the better bullpen and offense.
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 58:33
  Speaker 3: They're the better team, but Matthews might be able to
• 58:36
  Speaker 3: kind of hang in this game against Dustin may, you
• 58:39
  Speaker 3: know what I mean? Um, Matthews might have a little
• 58:42
  Speaker 3: bit more upside there because he's still a young pitcher,
• 58:44
  Speaker 3: and I think we still haven't seen him at his best.
• 58:47
  Speaker 3: So I would say St. Louis, if you're going to
• 58:48
  Speaker 3: play the side, I would say take St. Louis in
• 58:50
  Speaker 3: the first five on the run line, plus the half
• 58:53
  Speaker 3: run or plus the one run or something in the
• 58:55
  Speaker 3: first five and avoid their bullpen there because they definitely
• 58:58
  Speaker 3: don't have a bullpen advantage. But they might have a
• 59:01
  Speaker 3: little bit of, they might even actually have a slight
• 59:03
  Speaker 3: advantage in the starting pitching. So getting them as a
• 59:07
  Speaker 3: big underdog like that in that portion of the game
• 59:09
  Speaker 3: might be the right approach. there. But I still think
• 59:11
  Speaker 3: I prefer the under in that one. All right. I'm
• 59:15
  Speaker 3: going to be right back, then I'll talk about the
• 59:16
  Speaker 3: rest of these games, including the big TV game on Fox,
• 59:19
  Speaker 3: which is a game that is really only meaningful to
• 59:22
  Speaker 3: one of the two teams, between Tampa Bay and Philly.
• 59:25
  Speaker 3: And the National League situation is getting a little bit crazy. Denver, yes. yes,
• 59:31
  Speaker 3: it is Colorado's official state song, uh, kind of a
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: lame one, to be honest, um, what's, what's Massachusetts, uh,
• 59:41
  Speaker 3: state song, though, I should know what my own state
• 59:44
  Speaker 3: song is, I don't even fucking know, dude, um, we,
• 59:47
  Speaker 3: we just all listen to fucking Dropkick Murphys and shit, man, um,
• 59:52
  Speaker 3: Our state song is All Hail to Massachusetts. I don't
• 59:56
  Speaker 3: even know what the fuck that is, probably because it's
• 59:58
  Speaker 3: not a pop song, or it's not any sort of
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 3: modern song, not a rock song or whatever, so I
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 3: don't even know. It probably sounds like a national anthem, basically.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 3: It's probably like a state anthem. I should probably know
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 3: it cause it's my own state, but dude, nobody ever
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 3: sings that shit in Massachusetts. All right. We're everybody's too
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 3: drunk and Irish here. Like everybody's singing fucking sweet Caroline,
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 3: which is a terrible song written about a 13 year
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 3: old girl. Neil Diamond is terrible. He has zero talent.
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 3: Fuck that guy. And, um, yeah, Boston. I mean, they,
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 3: they are literally a Boston band. Yes, that is true. Um,
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 3: I covered one of their songs yesterday, Amanda, for a
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 3: chick named Amanda. There you go. That's on Twitter right now.
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 3: I've got to put it up on YouTube. But, yeah, Boston.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 3: There you go, yes. Brad Delp, RIP, man. I believe
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 3: he committed suicide. Maybe there's some strange circumstances around that.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 3: Delp was a really good vocalist, man, really good. Yeah, Boston,
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 3: good band. They got some really good stuff. Uh, I
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 3: will say, uh, before I take a quick break here
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 3: and come back and finish the show, I'll finish the
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 3: show in time to get my college football stuff done. Um, only,
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 3: you know, it's a little bit of a shorter baseball
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 3: card than usual because of all the double headers yesterday
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 3: to avoid the nor'easter. Um, I was on the train
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 3: on the subway. Um, this was, uh, after I was, uh,
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 3: I was in Boston. I was, uh, Hanging out with Isley,
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 3: who's a chick that people in these circles might know
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 3: her on Twitter. I hung out with her for a
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 3: little while. Then I was going to a Mars Volta
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 3: show that night. I was on the subway. I got
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 3: on the subway and actually first I think this guy
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 3: was hanging out at the Charles MGH station. near Mass
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 3: General Hospital. I think that's where I first encountered this guy.
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 3: He was looking for cigarettes. I was like, yeah, you
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: probably got to go check out the CVS that's over
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 3: there or whatever. They probably have them. But he didn't
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 3: even want to go over there. I'm like, Okay, like,
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 3: I don't know. Maybe he was saying that, like, he
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 3: was banned from the store. I don't know. This guy
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 3: seemed like he was homeless, and he was, like, out
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 3: of his mind. But he was kind of fun, and
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 3: I don't know. He was talking to me for a while.
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 3: I'm like, all right, I'll talk to this guy. Maybe
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 3: I'll get some stories out of this at least. He
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 3: got on the red line with me. And everybody else
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 3: was totally avoiding this guy, but I was still talking
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 3: to him. People probably thought that I was friends with
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 3: him or something, because I don't know, I look semi-homeless anyway, myself.
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 3: This dude was a white guy, by the way, just
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 3: to give you the full picture of what was going
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 3: on here. While we were on the red line, while
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 3: I was headed towards the concert there, he told me
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 3: that He was a janitor in some office building in,
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 3: I guess, Waltham or something like that, which is in
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 3: the Metro West area, a little bit west of Boston.
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 3: A lot of office buildings in that area. It's kind
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 3: of part of the East Silicon Valley, basically. a lot
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 3: of tech stuff there. I've worked there in the past
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 3: as well. But he was saying that he was a
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 3: janitor there in the 70s or something like that, and
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 3: that I guess the guitarist from Boston worked in his building,
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 3: and he claimed that he wrote the song Amanda. I'm like, okay,
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I'm like, I tried to verify this.
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 3: I'm sure that it was not true, but I don't know.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 3: This guy said that his name was Mark. I have
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 3: no idea what his last name was. If you look
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 3: up the writing credits on that song, it will tell
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 3: you that the members of Boston and their guitarists, I believe,
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 3: wrote that song. Maybe this homeless guy did write that song.
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 3: Maybe I met the guy that wrote Amanda, man. I
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 3: have no clue. Although... I mean, you could probably verify
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 3: that by just looking up, like, did the guys in
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 3: Boston know a chick named Amanda, right? And did they
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 3: specifically write that song about her? Because if that's the case,
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 3: then this guy was definitely bullshitting. This guy, you know,
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 3: seemed a little bit out of his mind, but it's
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 3: a hilarious story nonetheless. I enjoyed that. And then Mars Volta,
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 3: I actually liked that show that night, too. even though
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 3: I think Cedric has kind of lost a bit of
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 3: his voice, but this was a few years ago, at
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 3: least now, but he sounded fairly good at that show.
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 3: Their drummer was awesome. One of the best drummers that
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 3: I've seen live, and I've seen Mars Volta once more
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 3: since then, but it was that show where they opened
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 3: for the Deftones, and Mars Volta, their new album, which
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 3: is this weird experimental thing, had been leaked, so they
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 3: decided that they were going to say F you to
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: the leakers and just play that entire album front to
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 3: back as, as a set, as an opener for the
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 3: depth tones. And the whole crowd was like, what the
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 3: fuck is this? Um, I, I, I thought it was
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 3: interesting at least. I'm not a huge fan of that album,
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 3: but it's, it was just something so like from out
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 3: of left field and it doesn't even sound like Mars Volta.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 3: I'm like, what is going on here? Um, The show
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 3: that I went to that night that I met the
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 3: Amanda guy, though, the Amanda guy, that was like a
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 3: normal Mars Volta set. They played a lot of their
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 3: old stuff at that show. It was a really good set,
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 3: a long set. And their drummer is some, like, bald chick.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 3: I forget her name. You could probably look it up
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 3: and find her. She's been around. She was awesome. Like,
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 3: holy shit, she's good. Yeah, she was, like, kind of
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 3: the best part of that show, to be honest. All right.
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 3: I'm going to be right back. I'll talk about the
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 3: rest of these games. I don't have any baseball plays today,
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 3: so it's all college football for me today. I'll be
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 3: right back. Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 3: were on an 0-7 run over the last two days
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 3: after tonight. It was just complete bullshit. So that's how
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 3: I'm going to start off this show. Horrible Sunday, 1-5.
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 3: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 3: never seen anything like this, man. With the slump continuing,
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 3: two straight losses, not a good day at all, 0-4.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: I just.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 3: Have not had a good season, man, with weekends.
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: Slump.
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 3: Then I'm on and the slump continues. I've reached a
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 3: new peak, actually. I'm going to burn my Bruins hat, man.
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 3: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 3: March 8th? Is that what it is? I don't even know.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 3: It's March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man. I
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 3: don't know what day it is anymore. I don't even
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 3: know what day it is anymore, man. Back with you
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 3: after the worst day that I could possibly have. Back
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 3: with you as I always am. Until I die, at least.
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 3: 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did not go well for me. 0-5,
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 3: the worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 3: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 3: you about this anymore. The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 3: point other than potentially end it all. All right, next
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 3: game is the Fox game that I was mentioning, which
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 3: is Tampa Bay, Philadelphia. Tampa Bay's got really nothing to
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 3: play for here because they have locked up the one
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 3: seed in the American League. But they won yesterday anyway, 2-0.
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 3: And Philly, they're kind of in trouble right now. Philly's
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 3: only one game ahead of Arizona here. So they could
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 3: potentially lose. Go look at the wild card standings here.
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 3: This is crazy, the wild card standings. Arizona's won so
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 3: many games in a row here. Six games in a
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 3: row while Philly's lost their last three. Yeah, the last
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 3: wild card spot is still in flux here between Philly
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 3: and Arizona. This is insane, and it's worse for Philly
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 3: right now. Well, Arizona's got their own problems here too,
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 3: which I'm going to talk about next, but Philly doesn't
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 3: even know who their pitcher is going to be in
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 3: this game because Luzardo is on the injured list right now,
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 3: and I think it would basically be his turn in
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 3: the rotation, but he's not there. So we have no
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 3: idea who's pitching for Philly in this game. That's not good.
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 3: Philly also does not have a very good bullpen. They
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 3: used two guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Tampa Bay
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 3: has the better bullpen. Tampa used four. They did use
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 3: their closer yesterday. Tampa did. Tampa, number three in bullpen.
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 3: I don't think they're that good, but they're still better
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 3: than Philadelphia, who's ranked number 19 overall. Tampa Bay is
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 3: better offensively as well. They are ranked ninth right now,
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 3: tied with the White Sox. Philadelphia is 23rd. They've struggled offensively.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 3: Philadelphia is still a little bit better offensively at home, though.
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 3: Griffin Jacks is getting the start for Tampa unless they
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 3: put an opener in front of him but I think
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 3: they've just been letting him start recently so I think
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 3: he probably is starting here yeah he's made 22 starts
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 3: now he's been pretty good a 3.62 ERA 1.19 whip
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 3: he's not as good on the road though 3.83 road
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 3: ERA and Tampa in general is not as good on
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 3: the road they're a much better home team um I mean,
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 3: they're all right both ways. They definitely have pretty extreme
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 3: home road splits where they're better at home. Jax has
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 3: been pretty good recently, though. He's allowed one run in
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 3: his last 15 innings of work. That's pretty good against Atlanta,
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 3: the A's, and the Red Sox here. Yeah, he's in
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 3: pretty good form right now. He's going because he's pretty
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 3: consistently going five innings, and they're not overworking him. He's
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 3: been pretty decent for them, and then Tampa knows how
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 3: to use their bullpen effectively as well. He's got a
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 3: low hit rate, low walk rate, high strikeout rate. Those
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 3: numbers are all good. In Tampa, you know, they know
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 3: how to not overwork their pitchers, too. He's got a 3.3
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio. That's pretty good. 9.5 strikeout per nine
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 3: is all right as well. Pretty good numbers here. However,
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 3: he is not good against Philadelphia, but it's a small
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 3: sample size, 14 at-bats. seven of their hitters have faced
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 3: him three strikeouts two walks 357 average though 938 ops
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 3: so jacks has struggled against this lineup specifically so maybe
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 3: he won't be as good here because he's not as
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 3: good on the road he's not quite as good against
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 3: these guys philly we don't know who their starter is
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 3: going to be unless they've announced it since i started
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 3: uh handicapping this nope we have no idea tampa's got
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 3: 62 percent of tickets and cash on them it's a
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 3: pick and price here I think it's really hard to
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 3: figure out the side in this one because Jax looks
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 3: like he might not have the best matchup here. No
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 3: idea who's going to pitch for Philly here. I think
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 3: Luzardo is not ready to come back yet. They're trying
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 3: to get him ready for the playoffs here. If they
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 3: even make the playoffs, that's the problem. They need to
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 3: somehow win at least one game here to make the playoffs.
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man. I mean, it's a pick and price,
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 3: so it's a winnable game for Philly. Even, you know, regardless,
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 3: I guess, of who really pitches for them here. But
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 3: I don't really love the setup here. The total's really
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 3: low at seven, six and a half. We're, you know,
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 3: up in the northeast here where everything is really cool
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 3: now and the weather's not good for overs here. But
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 3: this game looks like it would be an over to me.
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 3: 63% of tickets, 78% of the cash on the over.
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 3: You have a mystery pitching situation for Philly against Jacks
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 3: who doesn't have particularly good matchup numbers in this one. So... Yeah,
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 3: I mean, the over might be the way that I
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 3: would lean in that one. But, you know, I don't
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 3: like going over these low totals either because the oddsmakers
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 3: are telling you something with that total, even though we
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 3: did have an over 7.5 win the other day. But
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 3: that was a circumstance that I happen to really like. But, yeah,
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 3: I don't like this that much. Check out Boston. Yeah,
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 3: I have no idea. He was probably lying. I don't know.
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 3: Do you trust homeless guys? I don't know. He was
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 3: not naked, and he was not fat like the guy
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 3: on Seinfeld. No, I'm correct. Yeah, no, this guy was
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 3: definitely on the thinner side, and he had a beard,
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 3: if I remember correctly. All right, and I think he
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 3: was missing some teeth. All right, Arizona, San Diego. Now, Arizona,
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 3: they're on a hot streak right now. They won for
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 3: us yesterday. They're battling with Philadelphia for this last wild
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 3: card spot, but guess what? Both teams have no idea
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 3: who's pitching for them today. There are two teams that
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 3: are undecided on their pitchers today, and it's those two teams,
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 3: Philadelphia and Arizona. This is crazy. What are we doing here?
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 3: Both teams have a very questionable pitching situation in a
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 3: crucial game today. Now, San Diego, they're already in the playoffs, but... Ideally,
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 3: they want to get the first wild card here, although
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 3: they've used a lot of their bullpen arms recently. They
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 3: used four guys yesterday. Some of their better relievers might
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 3: be available again because they were not available yesterday. They're
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 3: still the better bullpen over Arizona, although Arizona's a bit
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 3: more rested. They only used two guys yesterday. Arizona's bullpen
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 3: has some okay numbers at this point. They're ranked fourth.
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 3: I don't think they're that good. San Diego's ranked sixth.
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 3: San Diego is the better of the two bullpens, but.
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, with the rest situation, the bullpen situation
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 3: does get a little bit closer, at least between these
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 3: two teams. San Diego, number 19 in offense right now.
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 3: Arizona's all the way up to 12th. So Arizona's really
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 3: been hitting the ball well recently, although some of that
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 3: was because they just played in Colorado, though. This is
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 3: a more pitcher-friendly ballpark here, of course. No clue who's
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 3: pitching for Arizona here. I tried to figure it out,
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 3: and I couldn't figure it out. Like I went back
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 3: to this game five games ago against the Yankees. Oh, no,
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 3: I did figure it out. It was Corbin Burns, and
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 3: he's injured right now. That's what it is. Yeah, so
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 3: Corbin Burns would have been next up in the rotation
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 3: for them. He wasn't pitching well, though, even though when
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 3: he's good, he's like an elite pitcher. But he wasn't
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 3: doing well. He got us a push, and then he
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 3: got us a loss, I think, in the games where
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 3: we tried to play him. There's something not right with
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 3: Burns right now. He was going to be the next
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 3: one up to pitch in this game, but he's not
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 3: going to be pitching because he's hurt right now. And
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 3: he looked like he was hurt when he was pitching.
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 3: No idea what Arizona's going to do here. San Diego's
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 3: going with Walker Bueller in this game. He's been not great. 4.56 ERA, 1.34 whip.
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 3: Bueller is better at home, though, in this pitcher-friendly environment here. 4.1
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 3: home ERA. He's been fairly good recently. He pitched pretty
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 3: well against Miami here at home last time out. He's
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 3: been pretty good over the past month, not allowing more
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 3: than 300 runs in any start, but two of the
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 3: starts are a little bit shorter. But he's at least
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 3: in decent form right now, I would say. And really,
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 3: it goes back through August. He hasn't allowed more than
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 3: 300 runs in any of these starts, and a lot
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 3: of them were full-length starts as well. His hit rate
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 3: is all right on the season. His walk rate is mediocre.
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 3: His strikeout rate isn't really that good, so those numbers
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 3: are all kind of mid, I would say. 2.3 strikeout
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 3: walk ratio this year is not great. 7.7 strikeout per nine,
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 3: not really that great either. He's never going to be
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 3: what he was in his early days with the Dodgers.
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 3: Bueller against Arizona has actually been pretty good, though, and
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 3: 138 at-bats, 34-7 strikeout walk ratio, 232 average, 639 OPS allowed.
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 3: You know, we faded San Diego yesterday because of motivation
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 3: being on Arizona's side, and Arizona still definitely has motivation here,
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 3: but it was also because I thought San Diego was
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 3: in a letdown spot off of the winning against the
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 3: Dodgers twice. This game... having no idea who's pitching for Arizona,
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 3: and Buehler looking like he at least has a decent
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 3: matchup here and decent home road splits for this. I
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 3: think San Diego might be the right side here, but
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 3: the money is completely disagreeing with that. 76% of tickets
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 3: on San Diego, 80% of the cash on Arizona, who
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 3: should be motivated, but again, we have no clue who's pitching.
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 3: How can you back Arizona when you have no idea
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 3: what they're even doing here? Minus 120 is the price
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 3: on San Diego. I think I would lean that way.
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 3: And the money is coming in on the over seven
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 3: and a half in this game, too. I don't really
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 3: have a good feel for that. I don't think I'd
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 3: really want to try playing the over in that one, though.
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean, to me, it looks like the
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 3: setup is better for San Diego in that one. So
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 3: that would be my opinion there. Oh, I thought I
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 3: had three games left to talk about. I had four.
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 3: Anaheim and Seattle, I mean, this is ugly. Seattle just
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 3: got eliminated a couple days ago. They're a dead team, man.
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 3: They've lost both games so far to the Angels here. Seattle,
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 3: you know, it's sad what's happened to them. I don't know, man. Seattle,
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 3: their bullpen hasn't been as good as expected this year.
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 3: They used two relief pitchers yesterday. Anaheim's bullpen's not good, though.
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 3: Anaheim used four guys out of their bullpen. Seattle probably
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 3: has the bullpen edge in this one. They're ranked 21st.
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 3: Anaheim ranked 23rd. Neither bullpen good, but Seattle's does have
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 3: more talent in it, I would say, and is slightly
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 3: better and more rested here. Seattle's offense has been bad, 29th.
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 3: Anaheim even worse, 30th. This game could possibly be like
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 3: a little bit of a sneaky underplay because you have
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 3: two pitchers that people don't really know who they are,
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 3: don't really think they're that good, but you have a
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 3: pitcher-friendly park, probably a cool environment in Seattle at this point.
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 3: Two offenses that are putrid. Yeah, I mean, an under
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 3: might be the way to look in this game, and
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 3: maybe the bullpens are okay enough they can finish it
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 3: off for you. Ryan Johnson is pitching for Anaheim. He's young.
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 3: I think he has some talent here, as I've been saying. 4.93 ERA, 1.35 whip,
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 3: not really that good. He's not good on the road. 5.56 ERA,
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 3: which is a little bit scary. But his last two
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 3: road starts were pretty good against Pittsburgh and Boston. He's
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 3: pitching a lot better recently. He's got a 24-3 strikeout
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 3: walk ratio this month. So his command numbers have been
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 3: quite good this month. He was shaky last time out
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 3: against Minnesota. They hit him pretty hard. But I don't
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 3: know if that's going to mean that he's falling out
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 3: of form here or if that's just a little bit
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 3: of a fluky outing. He's allowed two or fewer runs
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 3: in all of his starts going back over a month now.
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 3: He's had full starts for his last seven starts now,
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 3: and that's been the case. So he is pitching better
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 3: right now. His hit rate is okay now. His walk
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 3: rate isn't really that good, though. His strikeout rate is
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 3: not great. great either 1.9 strikeout walk ratio, yeah, that's
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 3: a little bit concerning. That's not good. 7.2 strikeout per
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 3: nine isn't really that good either. And he's not great
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 3: against Seattle, which is a little bit worrisome. And 45
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 3: at bats, 8-0 strikeout walk ratio is good, though. 289
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 3: batting average allowed is high. 727 OPS is not that high, though.
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 3: And Johnson, you know, I think he is a little
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 3: bit better now than he was before. So I think
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 3: he might actually pitch okay here. Real hard, ah, ah,
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 3: what's up, man? Thanks for hanging out. Kane Anderson, the young,
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 3: I think he's a lefty, yeah, he's pitching for Seattle here.
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 3: He's starting to pitch all right as well. He's got
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 3: a 4.180 ERA, 1.21 whip. He is worse at home
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 3: for now, 4.32 home ERA, but it's a small sample
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 3: so far. He was really good in his last start
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 3: at Coors Field. He threw a seven-inning shutout, seven strikeouts,
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 3: no walks. Three hits allowed, and over his last couple starts,
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 3: he has a 12-0 strikeout walk ratio. Over his last
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 3: three starts, it's 17-1, 20-3 in the past month. So
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 3: both these pitchers have really good command metrics over the
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 3: past month. So they're both pitching better right now, although
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 3: Anderson did give it up against Anaheim on the 14th.
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 3: Which wasn't good, and now he's facing them again right now, right? Yeah,
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 3: so that's not a good sign that Anaheim was able
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 3: to hit him then, and now they're seeing him again,
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 3: although maybe he'll make adjustments and pitch better this time. Anderson,
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 3: he's got a decent strikeout rate, hasn't really walked many
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 3: guys at all. His hit rate's been not great, though.
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 3: Looking at his other stats here, 3.5 strikeout walk ratio
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 3: is pretty solid. 7.8 strikeout per nine, not really that good.
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 3: But he's not walking, guys, so that's good. His numbers
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 3: against Anaheim, though, which come from that one bad start
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 3: he had, these are not good. 17 at bats, 412 average, 1,000 OPS.
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 3: 4-0 strikeout walk ratio is pretty good, though. What do
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 3: we do with this game, man? I still think the
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 3: under is the right approach here. The total's low. It's 7, 7.5.
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 3: I think both pitchers are... Under the radar, I think
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 3: they're both pretty talented young pitchers, actually. 80% of tickets,
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 3: 93% of the cash on the over, though. But again, yeah,
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 3: I mean, you have two pathetic offenses here, too. So
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 3: I think the under makes more sense in this game
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 3: than anything else. And both pitchers are in good command
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 3: form recently, at least. 87% of tickets, 82% of the
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 3: cash on Seattle. So the money is fading Seattle strongly.
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 3: And they've dropped from like minus 180 all the way
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 3: down into the minus 160s here. And the sharp lean
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 3: in Vegas at some of these sharper Vegas books is
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 3: really towards Anaheim here. They have like minus 140-something on Seattle.
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 3: So the Vegas sharp lean seems to be very much
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 3: indicating towards Anaheim here as well. I guess you could
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 3: make that argument for it, that Seattle's a dead team.
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 3: Maybe Anaheim... Has a little bit more to prove here
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 3: because Seattle's a disappointed team that was expected to make
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 3: the playoffs again this year. As Anaheim, nothing was expected
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 3: out of them this year. So maybe they're playing a
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 3: little bit looser here and have a little bit more motivation. Like, yeah,
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 3: let's get another win against a team that's better than
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 3: we are. You know what I mean? But Seattle, probably
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 3: they just shouldn't be this heavily priced, I think is
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 3: really the thing. So maybe Anaheim on like a run
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 3: line or something like that makes sense here, like a
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 3: plus one run line. But I still prefer the under line.
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 3: to anything else in that one. Finally, Houston at the A's.
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 3: Houston and Texas, man, they both lost yesterday. It's like
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 3: they both don't want to win. Do you want to
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 3: make the playoffs, or do you not want to make
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 3: the playoffs? One of these teams is going to make it.
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 3: It's looking like it's more likely to be Houston at
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 3: this point because they have the tiebreaker, but these teams
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 3: are still tied right now. Houston's got to win, man.
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 3: Both teams got to win. The A's won yesterday 6-5.
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 3: Not great for Houston yesterday. Will Houston be able to
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 3: win in this one? Well, I don't know. I mean,
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 3: on the surface, Houston does have the better pitcher in
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 3: this game. But when you dig into the matchups a
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 3: little bit, it's a little bit questionable. Houston has a
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 3: better bullpen. They used four guys out of the bullpen yesterday, though.
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 3: The A's bullpen is pretty bad, though, and they used
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 3: four guys out of the bullpen. I mean, not pretty bad,
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 3: really bad. They're ranked second worst, but again, I think
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 3: they're the worst bullpen in baseball. Houston, their bullpen hasn't
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 3: been as good recently. They're number 14, but they're still
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 3: obviously the better of these two bullpens. Houston's number seven
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 3: in offense, tied with Miami. A's are number 11 right now,
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 3: so both offenses have been able to hit. This is
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 3: a hitter-friendly ballpark, as we know, but it's going to
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 3: be cooler in Northern California now, in Sacramento, so that
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 3: might keep some of the balls down rather than having
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 3: them fly out of the yard here. Hayden Wisniewski is
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 3: going to pitch for Houston here in this one. He's
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 3: been good. He's come back from injury, 3.5 ERA, 1.15 WIP,
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 3: pretty good numbers here. Not as good on the road, though, 4.39
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 3: road ERA. He's been good recently in most of his
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 3: recent starts. He had one kind of bad outing at
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay, but the fielding kind of destroyed him in
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 3: that outing, so it wasn't really all him. But other
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 3: than that start, he's been pretty good over his last
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 3: handful of starts here. So he's in pretty good form
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 3: right now. Except that his strikeout rate is pretty low recently,
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 3: which is maybe a little bit of an issue. He
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 3: does have a low hit rate on the season so far.
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 3: His walk rate is not too bad. His strikeout rate
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 3: is low, though, so that is concerning. 2.2 strikeout walk
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 3: ratio is a lot lower than what he's posted in
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 3: the past. So I think he's still not totally back
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 3: in form yet. But again, his ERA and whip are
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 3: both pretty good here, though. 6.8 strikeout per nine. So yeah,
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 3: his strikeout stuff is definitely diminished for now. We'll see
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 3: if he can able to, we'll see if he is
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 3: able to get that back against the A's. His numbers
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 3: are not really that good though. 19 at bats. Pretty
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 3: much everyone in their lineup has faced him. 263 average,
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 3: 785 OPS allowed. The A's have had the slight edge
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 3: against him. Six to three strikeout walk ratio. Not a
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 3: good ratio there either. Now is Wes Neskey a fly
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 3: ball heavy pitcher? I don't think he is. I'm going
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 3: to go back to his full, well, not full season,
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 3: but he had a little bit longer of a season
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 3: back a couple years ago. Yeah, he's not really that
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 3: fly ball heavy, so he looks like he's a style
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 3: of pitcher that isn't going to be hurt too much
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 3: by pitching in a stadium like this. And he hasn't
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 3: allowed that many home runs this year, so that's at
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 3: least good for him. On the other side for the A's,
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 3: Jack Perkins is pitching for the A's. I think he's
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 3: got some talent here, man. He's definitely got some good
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 3: strikeout stuff, but his numbers are not very good. 5.9 ERA, 1.45 whip.
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 3: He's been really bad at home, and that's kind of
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 3: the problem. He does not pitch well in the stadium. 7.05
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 3: home ERA. You know, I mean, it's somewhat understandable because
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 3: pitching in the stadium sucks. He's put together two really
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 3: good starts in a row over his last two starts
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 3: at Tampa and at Cleveland, but of course... Those are
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 3: both on the road. He pitched really well in those
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 3: two starts, though. Gave up one earned run total across
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 3: 12 and two-thirds innings there. 12 strikeouts, one walk over
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 3: that span. So he's in good form right now. The
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 3: problem is he's got to pitch at home again. Last
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 3: time he pitched here at home, he was not that
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 3: great against a bad Toronto lineup. Night heard him here, man,
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 3: pitching back at home here. He's got a high hit
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 3: rate on the season. He does allow a lot of
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 3: home runs. He is a fly ball heavy pitcher, so
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 3: he's not really suited for the stadium. His walk rate's
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 3: not really that good either. His strikeout rate is quite high, though. 2.7
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio because the walks are way too high,
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 3: but 10.2 strikeout per nine. That tells you that he
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 3: fools major league hitters, so that is a good number.
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 3: That means he does have some talent here. Some of
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 3: the reason why he looks as bad as he does
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 3: is because he's pitching in this horrible stadium. Perkins against
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 3: the Astros, interesting numbers here. They have 38 at-bats against him.
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 3: 12-7 strikeout walk ratio is not good for him. 2-11
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 3: batting average allowed is good, though. They haven't been able
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 3: to hit him for contact, but they do have some
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 3: power hitting often, plus all the walks have led to
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 3: a 7-81 OPS, so that number's not really that good.
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 3: I don't know. What do we do with this game, man?
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 3: I thought Houston was going to win yesterday with, um,
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 3: Hunter Brown on the mound and that didn't happen. Uh,
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 3: Brown against, uh, Lopez, I think. Yeah, man. I don't
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 3: know what Houston's doing here. 85% of tickets, 90% of
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 3: the cash on Houston. They're about a minus one 60 favorite.
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 3: You know, they're going to be public because everybody knows
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 3: Houston's the better team. They got to keep winning to
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 3: win this division and make the playoffs. Um, You know,
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 3: I mean, it looks like it might be too much
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 3: of a price to lay with them with this matchup
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 3: in a spot like this. I don't know. 85% of tickets,
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 3: 90% of the cash on Houston. I think you know
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 3: you're going to be paying a little bit extra to
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 3: get Houston because everybody knows they need to win. But yeah,
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 3: I think Wes Neskey generally is a better pitcher over
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 3: Perkins here, though. The full game total is 9.5. which
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 3: is slightly low for an A's total here. But again,
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 3: it might have to do with the weather being a
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 3: little bit cooler. The money is coming in on the
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 3: over in this game. Maybe the over is an approach
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 3: here because I don't really trust the two bullpens. The
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 3: pitching matchup numbers don't look that great. So I guess
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 3: maybe the over makes some sense here, but you could
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 3: have gotten it over nine and now it's definitely sitting
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 3: at nine and a half. So you lost that key
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 3: half a run there. Anyway, That's it for baseball, man.
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 3: So the baseball board, I'm passing on baseball. I mean,
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 3: it's late in the season. Really hard to predict some
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 3: of these games here today. Like I said, if I
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 3: was going to give out any play at all in baseball,
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 3: Kansas City first five money line would be what I
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 3: would do, backing WACA there. Lost Pelican, what's up, man? Yeah,
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 3: I miss Tower Gang as well. That was like my outlet, man.
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 3: Just hang out with the bros. We just had something, man.
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I think we had a dynamic that's
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 3: impossible to replicate without that group of specific guys. It's
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 3: just the way that it is. Yes. You didn't get
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 3: more merch from Top? Oh, that sucks. I have a
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 3: lot of Tower Gang stuff. Yes, I'm skipping it. Now,
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 3: as far as college, you can go watch my college
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 3: football show. There's not enough time to watch the whole thing,
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 3: but I did it last night. We have five plays today.
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 3: What I did say is to look for better numbers
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 3: on two of these. Quickly, we got South Alabama plus 20.5,
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 3: but I said look for a 21 on this. We'll
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 3: see if we can get that. 21 is definitely a
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 3: key number. I would still do it at 20.5, maybe
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 3: a little bit less money. I like the spot for sure,
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 3: but obviously I'd rather have the 21 in my pocket
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 3: than 20. Florida, I like them. Same thing goes for them.
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 3: We're going to lay three, three and a half with Florida,
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 3: but I think you might be able to get a
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 3: three on this because Ole Miss is going to be
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 3: public in a high volume game. So I would try
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 3: to get the three with Florida. Hopefully you can get
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 3: that one at three. I'm going to update it in
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 3: the description if I can find a three on it.
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 3: And then we have New Mexico State plus 11 and
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 3: a half. Georgia Southern plus 17 and a half. Hopefully
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 3: you can still get the 17 and a half on
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 3: that one because that is a key number there. And
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 3: Utah State minus three, again, right on a key number there.
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 3: Hopefully you still get the three on that one too.
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 3: That's my college football card for today. If you want
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 3: to look at the market here real quick for that,
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 3: we got, let's see, South Alabama. Market still seems to
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 3: be agreeing with that. Fading a public Kentucky team. Still
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 3: don't really see a 21 anywhere on the board there, unfortunately,
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 3: except actually the book that starts with an F seems
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 3: to have one. I'm going to have to take a
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 3: look at that because we do have that in mass,
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 3: so I'm going to take a look. Florida, whoops, I
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 3: went right by it. I apologize. There it is. Mississippi,
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, I'm not going to... really take, uh,
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 3: you take much away from a three percentage difference here
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 3: with the cash on Mississippi. Mississippi is a public side.
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 3: We're getting, we're getting Florida as a public on a
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 3: public and Florida is an anti-public favorite. Excuse me. Uh,
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 3: does not look like there's a three really out there
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 3: right now, though, which is really shitty. It does look
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 3: like the Vegas lean is towards Florida though, but you
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 3: do see, um, you know, there, there are a couple
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 3: of books that haven't reduced juice right now. So maybe
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 3: you'll be able to find a three, a three on that. Um,
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 3: I would pay a little bit of juice to get
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 3: the three, though, maybe up to about minus 115, minus
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 3: 120 to do that if you're going to do that.
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 3: New Mexico State looks like the money is agreeing with
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 3: that one. New Mexico is a public roadside there. That
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 3: line is around the same as it was, even though
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 3: it dropped from the opener, but whatever. Georgia Southern looks like, yeah,
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 3: the money is clearly agreeing with Georgia Southern. That one,
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 3: it looks like you'd still find 17.5s out there on
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 3: that one. And Utah State, Uh, we don't see percentages
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 3: on it, but the three looks like it is still
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 3: out there. So, um, yeah, that's the card for today.
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 3: That's going to do it. Thanks everybody for hanging out.
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 3: I'm going to get my college football picks settled here.
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 3: Got to get the Instagram videos out as well. That's
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 3: going to do it. I appreciate it, everybody. Thanks for
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 3: hanging out on a Saturday morning. I'll be back tonight. Oh,
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 3: thank you, sir. I'll be back tonight with the NFL show, which, uh,
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 3: I kind of enjoy that one more. I just feel
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 3: like it's easier to focus on a shorter board like
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 3: the NFL. I feel like I can just view it better,
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 3: just see it better. I'm going to have at least
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 3: two plays in the NFL, possibly three, possibly four, but
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 3: I think that might be pushing it. Thank you, sir.
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 3: I might limit it to what I think are the best.
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 3: I think there are two that I have that I
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 3: think are clearly the best in the NFL, so I
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 3: don't know if I want to push it by adding more,
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 3: but we'll see. how I feel when I really kind
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 3: of dig into it a little bit more, but that's
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 3: going to do it. Thanks everybody. Learn a tone on Twitter,
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 3: learn a tone on Instagram, like subscribe to the channel here.
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 3: You get notified when I go live. I filled out
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 3: the WNBA playoff bracket yesterday. So you can find that
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 3: show on the channel as well. Um, find the college
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 3: football show from last night as well. If you're interested
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 3: in that, it's all up on audio as well. Speak
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 3: a speaker, Spotify speaker and Spotify.
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 2: What?
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 3: No speaker, Spotify speaker. can't say that five times fast
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 3: um and apple etc it's all in my link tree
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 3: too but yeah uh the numbers had a huge spike
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 3: the other day i don't know what caused it but
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 3: whatever caused it hopefully continues man hopefully it wasn't a
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 3: fluke uh so definitely uh check out the audio because
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 3: that helps me out um you know it's it's it's
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 3: monetized there are ads on it so it helps me
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 3: out even if you just run it in the background
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 3: or whatever you know while you're working or whatever i
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 3: appreciate it um Covered in uke on YouTube for my
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 3: uke stuff. The Boston one's not up there yet, but
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 3: that'll be up there soon. Patreon.com slash learn to toad
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 3: for the uke Spotify feed. That one's lagging a little
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 3: bit behind again. I got to update that again. Loser
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 3: cast Tuesday nights and Giants G-Spot podcast. Don't know what's
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 3: happening with that. We're down in the dumps right now
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 3: over Jackson Dart. We thought we were going to have
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 3: an exciting season to watch and to live stream and
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 3: whatever for that channel, but that's not going to happen now.
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 3: We got Jameis Winston now, man. I like him. I
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 3: think he's fun. I think he's a wild character. I
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 3: think he has a good arm, too. It's just, I
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 3: don't know, man. Things have not panned out for him
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 3: in the NFL. I think to some extent he hasn't
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 3: really been totally given his shot, maybe, I would say. But,
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 3: you know, whatever. I mean, he's thrown too many interceptions,
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 3: even though I think he has a really good arm.
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 3: At night, what, like just listen? Yeah, listen to my, yeah,
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 3: just throw the show on while you sleep or whatever. Yeah,
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 3: just have it running, whatever. That helps me out too.
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 3: That's going to do it. Thanks, guys. Peace.
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 1: somebody answer, let somebody know.
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 2: You do not have to lose this round alone.
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, not tonight.
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 2: Not now Hold on, hold.
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 3: On Let me pull you.
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 2: Out That bad luck fights hard But it don't get
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 2: the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me now
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 1: On You're still here now guitar solo