Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 177 - 12/6/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 177 - 12/6/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:17
Hello, and welcome to episode 177 of the All Systems Go sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:34
Happy Friday. The work week has come to an
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end. A huge weekend upon us here,
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guys. We got conference championship
0:41
games in college football. We also have NFL, of course, big
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NFL Sunday coming up here. And I want to remind everyone,
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hope to see you on Sunday, 11:00 AM Eastern Time for the Rhythm
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Sunday Sweats live stream. Myself and my buddy James Santor
0:55
haven't seen James in a while. He's a mover and a shaker, busy
0:58
guy, but he's in Florida and he'll be tuning in probably with
1:02
the, you know, daiquiri in his hand or, you know, I don't know,
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some kind of drink sitting on a beach, joining myself as we'll
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be doing the Sunday sweats live stream.
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So of course, for all of you who have been tuning in all year
1:13
long, thank you. But if you maybe haven't gotten
1:16
a chance to check it out, I'd love to see you guys 11:00 AM
1:19
Eastern Time live on Twitter. You'll just see us go live and
1:22
you can just log in, ask some questions.
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We'll talk about some late breaking games, line move system
1:27
matches, player props, all the above.
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So hope to see you guys on Sunday for Rhythm Sunday sweats
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11:00 AM Eastern Time to noon now for today.
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I got a four pack of sweats for you. 2 college football plays,
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couple conference championship games, couple dogs, and I'm
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hoping will Bark for US1 in particular has a really good buy
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back in a rhythm edge play. College hoops 15 games overall
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but one caught my eye. I probably wanted some more
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sweats here but I said don't force it.
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Got one really sharp dog to fave line move and then one play in
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the NHL. I haven't been playing too much
1:59
NHLI feel like I'm cold as ice, pun intended.
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But I don't want to abandon a sport that historically I've had
2:05
some good years with. This year's been just kind of
2:08
hard to get your finger on the pulse of the NHL.
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One thing I noticed is you don't really have a lot of dominant
2:12
teams. You got a lot of parity, a lot
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of teams that are, you know, two games above 502, games below
2:17
500. And there's been really just no
2:20
rhyme or reason to a lot of these plays.
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But one play tonight has our favorite system match which
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think about it. If you know it you know it then
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looking for the weekend. I got one play for you in the
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UFC biting in the arena, including a great bet split and
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another advantage here with a youth advantage guy who was much
2:39
younger in his prime and also dishes out a lot of punishment.
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So one play in the UFC Then also I have 3 bets in college
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football for tomorrow that I want to hit on.
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Of course you can check out the sharp report.
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It comes out everyday vsin.com. I write that for V sin, but you
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can check it out tomorrow morning for some late additions.
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And then also only two plays in the NFL.
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Didn't see a ton in the NFL that caught my eye this weekend.
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There's some dogs that I like, but then they're really trendy.
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I landed on one contrarian favorite and one total.
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So I'll share with you guys all of those plays for today.
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Now burying the lead. Boy, did we get after it last
3:15
night. You know Taylor Swift has the
3:16
errors tour. Well, last night we had our bad
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beat Revenge tour baby six and one six and one six and 1 + 3.93
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units. You'll love to see it.
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Remember our Jameis Winston back Breaking Bad beat?
3:32
Our Baylor bad beat against UConn?
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Well, the important thing with sports betting is I tried to
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mention this the other day. As bad as a bad beat hurts, you
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feel like hey, you're going to get some some good karma in the
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future. And boy did it come through last
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night. Packers getting it done with the
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Hook. Plus 3 1/2 contrarian primetime
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dog, divisional dog. Massive reverse line move.
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That line kept going to Green Bay even though public was on
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Detroit. Ended up covering with the hook.
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You love to see it. Tim Patrick, our guy.
4:01
Thanks to our friends at Rhythm told us to take Tim Patrick over
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23 and half receiving yards. Should have taken him two
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touchdowns. I had a great game, went over
4:08
that number. So shout out to Tim Patrick.
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And then a great night in college hoops.
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Penn State, our favorite system, unranked, home favors ranked
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opponent. Penn State rolled TCU, got it
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done. That was a sweat, but they were
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able to hang on for that one. Houston Christian, you might
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have never heard of that team, but boy, that gets sweaty at the
4:27
end as well. But they came through.
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UC Davis also was a great winner.
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They really turned it on, hit nail on a bunch of threes.
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The only loser was Santa Barbara.
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So hey, I'm not going to I'm not going to cry over spilt milk not
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getting a 7 and O sweep, although I will admit I was
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rooting for it Late, but 6 and 1 + 3.93 units Huge night for us
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guys. So love to see it.
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Love to see our our grinders with blinders mentality get
4:50
rewarded. Now I want to mention real
4:52
quick, all the best bets that we talked about on the pod are all
4:56
now available on the Juice Reel app.
4:58
So I tweeted out every day from now on if you are short on time
5:02
or you just want the plays or you want to support the pod, let
5:05
me know you appreciate the free insights that I provide.
5:08
Well, you can follow and sign up for all the best bets from the
5:11
pod that go right to Juice Reel and it's 499 a week.
5:15
I know it's 5 bucks basically, but think of it this way, it's a
5:18
tip jar. I don't know how much you guys
5:20
bet a game. Maybe you bet 5 bucks a game,
5:21
maybe you bet 20A game, maybe about 50, maybe you bet 100, but
5:25
are the insights that I provide to you hopefully worth 5 bucks a
5:28
week? I would venture to hope that I I
5:30
would hope to say yes, they are. But if you want to support the
5:33
pod, please sign up for the the best bets on juice real.
5:37
Now looking toward tonight after a massive night last night.
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Let's see if we can keep it rolling 4 pack, as I mentioned,
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2 college football, 1 college hoops, one NHL.
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Let's get right to it. So taking the cake tonight,
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college football. We got these conference
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championship games and two in particular caught my eye.
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So let's start with the first one.
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Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State, 7:00 game
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here tonight. This is on, I believe, CBS
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Sports Network Conference USA Championship.
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So. Both these teams come into this
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18 and 4, but what's interesting is that they just played each
6:10
other last week and you had Western Kentucky beat
6:13
Jacksonville State 19 to 17 covered as a one point home
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favorite. So it's it's kind of rare that
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in a championship game, you know, these teams just played
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the previous week. So there's there's kind of an
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Intel play there. Hopefully we can take advantage
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of. Anyway, what have we seen across
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the market here? Well, Jacksonville State opened
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around a three-point favorite at home.
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Now Jacksonville State got bet all the way up to -5 And I'm
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like, OK, looks like a lot of money like Jacksonville State in
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this one. But I think it's important to
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kind of someone told me this a long time ago.
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Bet favorites early, dogs late. It's not always going to work.
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But, you know, historically, it's kind of the way you want to
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lean so early money that got Jacksonville state -3 three and
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a half. I mean, you're looking good
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right now. The lines at 4 1/2.
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However, line got up to five. And that's when we saw a lot of
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buyback on Western Kentucky, +5 down to 4 1/2.
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Some shops now even down to four.
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So maybe the there's a kind of a battle here between the sharps
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where they said, oh, Jacksonville State really good
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-3 three and a half. But Western Kentucky had a lot
7:12
of value plus 5 + 4 1/2 and of course I'm a big fan of late
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game day movement. When limits are raised, big bets
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come in. So I really like this buy back
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toward Western Kentucky. I'm playing Western Kentucky,
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I'm taking the plus 4 1/2 now. Shop around should be available.
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Although you do have a lot of shops getting down to four.
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So you'd love to put in this hook 4 1/2 and then see it close
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for and get some CLV. What I like about Western
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Kentucky isn't just this game day buyback, but it's also the
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fact that they are contrarian. Jacksonville State is getting a
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majority of bets at DraftKings, 55%.
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At Circa they're getting 58%. So it's not a, you know, like
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Lions from last night, 6570%. It's not that lopsided.
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But this is not a trendy dog with Western Kentucky public is
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on Jacksonville State. Now.
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The other thing I like about this good bet split toward
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Western Kentucky, 45% bets, 52% dollars at DraftKings.
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So again, a little bit low bets, higher dollars.
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You have that conference dog angle built in familiarity,
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rivalry, of course, championship game levels, the playing field
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benefits the team getting points.
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Western Kentucky did just beat Jacksonville State.
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So maybe, you know, you could. I think of it sometimes like UFC
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or boxing, the rematch, you always think like the team that
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loses is, you know, jacked up to win.
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But sometimes you see the team who wins the first one wins the
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second one. Now, I don't care about Western
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Kentucky winning tonight. I care about them, you know,
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winning or losing by 4 or less because again, you got to get
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the hook. The four and a half here.
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The other angle that I like with the Hilltoppers, their defense,
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they're only giving up 22 points a game.
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Gamecocks are giving up 27 points a game.
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So this isn't like a huge dog who can score system match.
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Yeah, Western Kentucky can put up points, but it's more of
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well, Jacksonville State put enough, put up enough points to
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cover against Western Kentucky. Now the other angle that was
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interesting to me, and by the way, this would also match our
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Short Rd. dog system match. Again, because you got to think
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of it this way. If Jacksonville State is -4 1/2
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- 4 at home, typically three points home field, this is a
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neutral site, like maybe -1 close to a pick em game.
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So that would be a system match on Western Kentucky.
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But the other angle here is the quarterback of Jacksonville
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State. I was reading about this kid
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Tyler Huff. He let he left the last game
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with a leg injury and it looks like he's going to play, but
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will he be limited? This is a team that likes to run
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a lot and if their dynamic quarterback isn't at full
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strength, that's a benefit toward Western Kentucky.
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So again, if you talked to me earlier in the week, I would
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have said, oh, this line's going to Jacksonville State.
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But once it got to five lot of buy back on the contrarian Rd.
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dog and oh, by the way, our friends at rhythm, they have
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Western Kentucky plus 2.6. So if we're getting a four and a
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half and rhythms got around a 2 1/2 three-point game tells me we
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got some contrarian opportunity angle here to take the points
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with the Hilltoppers. So I'm going Hilltoppers first
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play of the night. Western Kentucky get that hook.
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I got them at plus 4 1/2. Now the game that I can't wait
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to sweat tonight, UNLV and Boise State.
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This is the Mountain West championship game.
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UNLV comes in 10 and 2 ranked 20th.
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They've won four straight, just took down Nevada 3814, covered
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the 17 1/2 at home. Meanwhile, Boise 11 and one
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ranked 10th. They've had a great year.
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Obviously Ashton Gente has been fantastic, although you have a
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huge favorite now with with what's his name with Jesus?
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Why can't I forget his? Name Colorado the two way *.
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I don't know why I'm blanking on his name.
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Travis Hunter. He's basically a shoe in like
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-10,000 now. But Genti for a while has been a
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big public darling, and so have Boise State, which is why hint,
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hint. I want to bet against them.
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I, I like UNLVI, got the plus 4 1/2 here, guys.
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Now, what we've seen is this line opened around Boise State
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-5 even -5 1/2 at home. This is a true home game, the
11:03
blue turf up in Boise and the public is saying, yeah, UNLV,
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yeah, you're ranked good record. But take Boise here, right?
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Boise State Gente again, my whole point, even though I
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blanked on his name with Travis Hunter, is that Boise is kind of
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like a trendy Cinderella team that the public likes.
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And they love the blue turf even though I think it's kind of God,
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God awful when you're looking at it from a visual standpoint.
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But anyway, public is on Boise State.
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Boise State's getting 64% of spread bets at DraftKings, so
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2/3 of bets. This is the most heavily bet
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game of the night. This game is on Fox, so just in
11:35
the standpoint of not even talking about the line movement,
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which by the way, great reverse line move to UNLV is the fact
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that this is just a most heavily backed game #1 contrarian play
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public drunk guys at the bar on a Friday night, they're saying.
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Boise all day. Your Boise is going to crush
11:51
them. Maybe they will.
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I hope they don't, but that's what the obvious public mindset
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herd mentality is saying. Boise State yet despite, not
12:00
despite just, you know, being a great contrarian play or in
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favor of being contrarian play. UNLV is also sharp.
12:06
How do I know they're sharp? Because the lines moved in their
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favor. They open getting 5 1/2 five.
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Now they're down to 4 1/2. But throughout the week they
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were down to as low as 3 1/2 or 4.
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So maybe there's some buyback. Boise -3 1/2 - 4 because now
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you're back up to four and a half.
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And I, I kind of like UNLV all week.
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And I was saying to myself, I'm going to hold out for the hook
12:25
on the 4 1/2 because again, you think of it as, you know, a 14
12:31
to 10 game or a 14 to 10 score cover with the four and a half,
12:34
seven to three cover, the four and a half.
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That hook is really important when you think about how sevens
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and threes can create margins of victory.
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But I love that I was able to kind of be a little patient and
12:46
get the four and a half, which is now available to you right
12:48
now. I also have some wise guys who I
12:50
respect to, like UNLV in the spot as well.
12:53
So that was something that I kept in mind.
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But anyway, UNLV only 36% of bets, but 54% of dollars of
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DraftKings. So again, sharp, sharp low bets,
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higher dollars bet split at Circa, who prides itself on
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taking in a lot of respected money. 49% of bets, 68% of
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dollars. So both DraftKings, a public
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book, and Circa, a sharp book, are both showing good low bets,
13:16
higher dollars in favor of UNLV. These teams did play each other
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back in late October. I remember because I had UNLV
13:24
plus 4 1/2 and they lost by 5 and I, and I was just so annoyed
13:28
that they couldn't cover the number.
13:29
But here's what I think is important.
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And kind of bear with me. This might sound a little bit
13:33
wonky, but in that game when UNLV was at home, they're
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getting 4 1/2. Now they're on the road at Boise
13:41
and they're still getting 4 1/2. Now that's really fishy because
13:45
think of it this way, you know, home field advantage, you're
13:48
going to get a point or two, maybe even as high as three
13:50
points. Obviously it's not as high as it
13:51
used to be. NFL, it's not quite as high.
13:53
I think college with these young kids going on the road.
13:56
I think home field can be obviously important.
13:59
But think of it this way. If Boise, if Boise State was
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laying 4 1/2 on the road at UNLV, now they're at home.
14:07
They should probably be, you know, I don't know -5 1/2 - 6
14:10
1/2 yet they're the same number. So what does that tell you?
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It tells you that basically that odds makers are more bullish on
14:18
UNLV this time around because they're not adding in that that
14:21
home field. Or maybe they are and they just
14:24
have power rated UNLV. Maybe they played a little bit
14:26
better down the stretch. Maybe boy, Boise hasn't played
14:29
as well. But it really jumped out to me
14:30
that, hey, UNLV was getting 4 1/2 at home and now they're only
14:34
getting 4 1/2 on the road. Shouldn't they be getting more
14:36
because of home field for Boise? That kind of reading between the
14:40
lines tells me oddsmakers are are respecting UNLV in the spot.
14:45
The other angle I did notice it could be a little bit windy, you
14:47
know, or actually it's not that bad.
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But the total did fall 59 1/2 down to 57 1/2.
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But if you add it all up here, guys, this is been pretty much a
14:55
sharp move from the beginning. Again, it got down as low as 3
14:58
1/2 four. Now you have the opportunity to
15:00
grab the hook 4 1/2. So I put I put a UNLV plus 4 1/2
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in actually put it in the app last night.
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Here's the other thing I want to mention to you guys When you get
15:09
the best bets on juice rail, I'm putting in bets at all times of
15:13
the night or at all times of the day.
15:14
So if you want to get good numbers, hopefully before they
15:16
fall, the reason to sign up. And get those best bets from
15:20
Juice Rail. Because I want to say I think it
15:22
was after the Green Bay game, I noticed UNLV went to four and a
15:26
half and I said that's what I've been waiting for.
15:27
So I put it in. But Long story short, most
15:30
heavily back game of the night, Publix all over Boise, yet line
15:33
has been moving consistently in favor of UNLV.
15:36
I'm going to take the points. Let's go Rebels plus 4 1/2.
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So make sure you get the hook in both games should be widely
15:43
available. Western Kentucky plus 4 1/2.
15:45
UNLV plus 4 1/2. Can we at least get one of
15:48
those? It'll be great if we could get
15:49
both. Now over to some college hoops
15:52
after a great night last night. I found one game that caught my
15:55
eye for it tonight and it is Kennesaw State, Georgia State.
15:59
You may not, you know, have thought about this one as being
16:02
on your radar, but this one jumped out to me for a couple
16:05
reasons #1 added game or no Sorry, not an added game extra
16:09
game, but a kind of low bed obscure game. 7:00 tonight.
16:14
Let me just dial it up for you between again, Kennesaw at
16:18
Georgia State and you go into this one with Kennesaw.
16:21
Let me just pull this up for you.
16:24
But they're six and three. They've had a pretty good start
16:26
to their year. Georgia State is four and four.
16:29
Now. The opener for this game was
16:31
Kennesaw State laying -1 1/2 on the road, very short, 1 1/2
16:34
Point Rd. favorite. And what happened?
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The slimes flipped to Georgia State -1 1/2.
16:41
Even some books going to -2 So the first thing I noticed, and
16:45
this is a little tip for you, if you and I've had a lot of people
16:47
reach out to me, feel free to e-mail me if you want.
16:49
But talking about live odds pages, and there's different
16:52
ones out there. I'll tell you my favorite, you
16:55
know, and give you some insight where to get free ones.
16:57
The best ones you have to pay for.
16:59
But anytime you have a live odds page, you have a open column
17:02
that's static and only shows you the opening number.
17:04
And then you have all the other books to the right of it with
17:06
the current numbers. So the first thing I look at I I
17:09
don't look at the names of the teams.
17:11
I do it for every sport. I go right to the open number
17:14
and then compare it to the current, and I look for big
17:16
moves. I look for, you know, you got to
17:19
look at RLM plays when you apply the percentages.
17:22
But the first thing I look at is, OK, which numbers have
17:24
moved? It's just a very easy,
17:25
rudimentary starting point. And I saw Kennesaw State open -1
17:29
1/2, yet now Georgia state's -1 1/2 - 2.
17:32
So right off the bat, just the importance of a live odds page
17:36
open versus current big move toward Georgia State.
17:39
Now that's also a dog to fave line move.
17:41
One of our favorite system matches.
17:42
You open as a dog, you flip to a favorite because a lot of
17:45
respected money is required for that to happen.
17:48
Now Ken Palm only has, or actually Ken Palm has Georgia
17:52
State losing by point rhythm has Georgia State -1.6.
17:57
So it's not like a huge Ken Palm rhythm play.
18:00
But to me, this is an angle to play kind of a fishy move that
18:03
doesn't make sense. So if we layer in some more
18:06
information here, one thing I noticed is bunch of advantages
18:10
toward Georgia State. The first one is they take
18:12
better care of the ball. They're two, 34234 in the
18:16
country and turning the ball over, which doesn't sound great,
18:19
but Kennesaw State's one of the worst teams in basketball at
18:22
turning it over. They turn it over a lot.
18:24
They ranked 348 in the country. Better field goal percentage for
18:28
Georgia State, 45% versus 43%. They shoot the three better, 36%
18:33
versus 34%. Then I noticed a experience
18:37
advantage. If you look at Georgia State,
18:40
they average 1.9 years of experience versus 1.3 for
18:43
Kennesaw State. But more importantly, I noticed
18:47
that four of the five starters on Georgia State are seniors.
18:50
So veteran leadership, Kennesaw State, three of their starters
18:55
are freshmen. I think they have one soft or
18:57
sorry one, maybe 1 senior, one junior, but they have 3 freshmen
19:01
versus Georgia State for starting players are seniors.
19:04
So I like that, you know, senior experience versus the young
19:08
freshmen. Then we go to home Rd.
19:10
Georgia State 3 and O at home this year, Kennesaw State O and
19:14
one on the road. So I could have ended the cap by
19:17
just saying, hey, really sharp dog to fave line move on Georgia
19:20
State. But you add in some stat
19:22
advantages, experience, home Rd. splits.
19:25
I'm playing Georgia State to win the damn game.
19:28
I got him at -130 on the money line at Bet MGM.
19:31
Again, some shops a little bit closer to -140 but let's go
19:34
Georgia State, the Panthers tonight in college hoops.
19:38
Now over to the NHL because again, NH LS.
19:42
I'm just going to say it pissing me off this year because I feel
19:44
like we're doing very well in college, You know, college
19:47
football, college hoops, NFL, but it's really been NBA and NHL
19:52
in particular that have been kind of annoying.
19:55
So when I'm not doing great at a sport, I don't want to keep
19:57
forcing it And you know, take away from being good at the
20:00
other sports and you have a good night, but you keep losing your
20:03
the sports you're bad at. So it kind of keeps you down and
20:06
keep it holds you back from. Getting better results, but I
20:08
also. Don't want?
20:09
To abandon a sport just because, you know, it's not worked out to
20:12
the level that we want it to so. With.
20:14
That being said, I'm going back to hockey tonight.
20:17
Yes, I'm doing it. Let's go to the NHL.
20:19
Let's go out to Vegas. Found a really sharp line move
20:22
Dallas Stars at the Vegas Golden Knights.
20:25
Now going into this one, Dallas Stars 16 and 9 just had a loss
20:29
against LA Vegas 17, seven and three and they have won two
20:34
straight and three of their last four.
20:36
But the first thing I notice about this one sharp move toward
20:39
the Dallas Stars this game open at pretty much a pick em -110
20:43
both sides. Now Dallas is up to -120 -, 125
20:48
S right off the bat. Good move toward the Dallas
20:49
Stars. Let's keep digging.
20:51
Into this one, DraftKings percentages look pretty good on
20:55
Dallas. Only 47% of money line bets, but
20:58
68% of money line dollars. So good low bets, higher dollars
21:02
bet split. Then we get to my favorite
21:04
system match in hockey. Road favored.
21:06
Off a loss versus an opponent off a win.
21:09
This year it's 23 and 1168 percent, 12% ROI.
21:14
Since the start of last year, it's 87 and 41, also 68 percent,
21:18
14% ROI. Whole thought process is it's
21:21
kind of fishy. Vegas is off.
21:23
A win Dallas is out off a loss yet the lines opening or opens
21:27
at a pick em and I love pick em. You know, line moves because
21:30
even though maybe the odds makers open it as a coin flip
21:33
wise guys. Who bet the sport and maybe set
21:36
their own power ratings. They say no, this shouldn't be a
21:37
pick em. We have one team favored.
21:39
So it looks like to me they like Dallas, which is where I'm
21:42
going. I'm going stars here guys at
21:43
-120 but it's the fishy. Road fave off a loss.
21:47
Opponent off a wind system and then also it's a rest first
21:50
tired play because if you look at the Vegas Golden Knights,
21:53
they're playing their third game in four days.
21:56
Dallas is playing. Their second game in four days,
21:58
so rest first. Tired, hopefully an advantage in
22:01
goal. Jake Ottinger for Dallas
22:03
expected to start 2.4. Two goals against 912 save
22:06
percentage. Aiden Hill, Two Point. 6.
22:09
Seven goals against, 900 save percentage.
22:11
So Hill hasn't been terrible, but Ottinger has been better.
22:14
Also, you look at defensively. Dallas giving up 2.6 goals a
22:18
game versus 2.9 VGK and the penalty kill 83%.
22:23
Versus 79%. But maybe I'll.
22:26
Just only play this system match because it's been really good.
22:28
Hopefully it's good tonight that road fave off a loss opponent
22:31
off a win. So I'm on the Dallas Stars.
22:34
Dear God, can we win a hockey game?
22:36
I feel like it's been ages. I feel like I'm the the old lady
22:38
in Titanic waiting, you know, reminiscing since my last hockey
22:42
win because I love hockey, but I don't want to keep forcing it if
22:45
it's not coming through. But I also don't want to abandon
22:47
a sport just because it hasn't been great.
22:50
So anyway. I'm on the Stars.
22:51
Let's go Dallas, I got him at -120 So Dallas Stars money line,
22:56
Georgia State money line, and Western Kentucky and UNLV both
22:59
+4. And a half now.
23:01
Let's go to the weekend. I got a.
23:04
UFC play for you, biting in the arena.
23:07
This is UFC 310 in Vegas at T-Mobile.
23:10
One day I'd like to attend. UFC Vegas at T-Mobile and sweat
23:15
some some bites. Literally not just on ESPN Plus
23:18
or in the, you know, on, on TV, but in person anyway.
23:22
For those who maybe don't know UFC or maybe haven't listened to
23:27
it much on the pod, remember we're looking for a tale of the
23:31
tape. The physical and youth
23:32
advantages to line up with what the betting market is doing.
23:35
So over time we've developed a model younger, taller, longer
23:39
reach line move in their favor, low bets, higher dollars.
23:43
So I landed on one fight that caught my eye.
23:45
Or bite, as I like to say, Joshua Van against Cody Durden.
23:51
And if we got a fight against Joshua, against Cody, you know,
23:53
we got to go with Joshua. I was born Joshua Applebaum.
23:57
No one calls me Joshua. I've always gone by Josh anyway.
24:00
I'm going Joshua Van. Let's start off with.
24:03
The line move and the bet splits.
24:05
Now the line hasn't moved a ton. It opened around -150 -, 160.
24:09
It's pretty much stayed in that area, but I did notice.
24:11
A really good bet split toward Joshua Van.
24:14
He's only getting 42% of of money line bets at Bet MGM, but
24:17
71% of dollars. So good low bets, higher dollars
24:22
and even though you don't have the line move.
24:24
You also don't you kind of look at.
24:26
It as a line freeze like majority of bets are on Cody
24:28
Durden, but the line hasn't fallen toward Durden.
24:30
It's pretty much stayed where it's at now aside from the great
24:34
42% bets, 71% dollars huge. Youth Advantage.
24:38
Joshua Van is 23 years old. His opponent, Cody Durden is 33
24:43
years old. So A10.
24:44
Year youth Advantage. Now they're both around 55, they
24:47
both have around a 66 inch reach, so the height and the
24:50
reach aren't there. But line freeze, fade, the
24:54
trendy dog, low bets, higher dollars, big youth advantage.
24:57
Then I was doing a little bit more research.
24:59
One thing I was. Reading about this Joshua Van
25:01
character is that he dishes. Out a ton.
25:04
Of offense, significant strikes per minute with Joshua Van 8.39
25:09
versus only 3.35 for Cody Durden.
25:12
So if Joshua Van doesn't choke him out.
25:15
Guillotine choke. Knock him out if this goes to
25:17
judges. Hopefully the the more offensive
25:21
output as you look at significant strikes being way
25:23
more for Van because he dishes out a lot of punishment.
25:26
Hopefully that you know, basically helps him when it
25:29
comes to the judges. Then do you defend significant
25:31
strikes 58% Van, 50% for Durden that was looking at takedown
25:37
defense, 83% for Van. So he does a good job at
25:39
defending the takedown. And also Joshua Van four and one
25:42
in the UFCI. Think he started a three and oh,
25:46
I believe. And then he lost 1.
25:47
And I was reading about how his last fight off a loss, he really
25:51
showed a lot of grit against the veteran fighter or veteran
25:54
biter, as I like to say. So you add it up here, guys.
25:57
Joshua Van looks good to me. I'm playing Joshua Van now.
26:00
I got him at -152 at FanDuel. But shop around because you have
26:04
other books closer to -160 But we have low bets, higher
26:08
dollars, huge youth advantage, way more offense, better defense
26:13
and a fighter that again, it showed some grit bouncing back
26:16
after his first loss and then winning his next bout.
26:19
So let's go Joshua Van JV, let's get it done -152 Now over to the
26:25
weekend card. Few bets here.
26:28
That we've already hit on, but I want to mention you probably
26:30
know or maybe if you remember the plays in college football
26:33
for Saturday, I'll go over them again and then NFL, they might
26:37
both be a surprise to you. I mentioned one before, but the
26:40
other one is an under that I really like.
26:42
But anyway, let's start with college football.
26:44
Let's go to Miami, Ohio against Ohio.
26:48
Mentioned this earlier in the week, but I am a money line bet
26:51
on Miami, Ohio. Miami Ohio open as a very short,
26:55
you know, one point 1 1/2 point favorite.
26:57
They're now up to -2 some shops. Even.
27:00
To 2 1/2 all movement liability has been my on Miami, OH, great
27:04
bet split at Circa on the money line.
27:06
Only 40% bets, but 89% dollars tells me smart money here is
27:10
going Miami, Ohio. So I'm going to play Miami, OH
27:14
in this one. I put it in earlier in the week.
27:16
I want to say I got it like -130 -, 135 somewhere around there.
27:20
But I like that line. Move toward Miami, OH, next one.
27:25
4:00 game. Georgia and Texas, I'll be
27:28
rooting with Matthew McConaughey.
27:29
Give me the Longhorns. Hook them I like.
27:31
Texas. In this spot, Texas very sharp
27:34
line move. They open very low like -1 1/2 -
27:37
2. They've now been bet up to -2
27:39
1/2 and pushing -3 They have a great bet split and this is a
27:44
money line play for me on Texas. Again, very similar like -135 -,
27:47
140, but at circa the spread, 62% bets, 89% money.
27:53
DraftKings money line 57 percent, 67% dollars.
27:57
And then our friends at Rhythm have Texas money line or sorry,
28:01
Texas -6 so that's pretty good. Rhythm is more bullish on Texas
28:05
than the market is, which makes me feel better to play Texas.
28:08
You also have the angle of Texas has the far better defense.
28:12
And this is a revenge play. Texas only lost came against
28:15
Georgia earlier this year. So I like that line move toward
28:18
the Longhorns. And again, you can look for
28:20
tomorrow sharp report for the full breakdown, but can be Texas
28:23
money line and then the game that I can't wait to sweat Penn
28:27
State now I've. Played James.
28:29
Franklin in big games before, I feel like he always lets me
28:32
down. We got our events here tomorrow
28:34
night. Give me Penn State plus 3 1/2
28:36
early like this. Play number one, it's your top
28:38
contrarian play of the weekend. Only 20% of spread bets are on
28:43
Penn State. Everybody and their mothers on
28:44
Oregon. Oregon typically is, you know
28:46
-20 -, 30. You never get a -, 3 1/2.
28:50
So I think the public just says, hey, higher ranked team, better
28:52
team, You know, this is an easy play to take the good team with
28:55
a low spread. But what I like is some reverse
28:58
line movement or line freeze in favor of Penn State.
29:01
And actually some good RLM, like a lot of books opened Oregon -4
29:06
they're down to 3 1/2 and you do see some juice like it may get
29:09
down to three. So all movement liabilities been
29:12
toward Penn State even though public is on Oregon.
29:15
So it tells me we got a great contrarian play with some RLM in
29:18
favor of Penn State. Aside from being your top
29:21
contrarian play, 8 O clock game tomorrow night is the fact that
29:24
rhythm has a really good edge on Penn State Rhythm.
29:27
I have two system matches or two game predictions.
29:30
One is Penn State plus 2.8. The other actually.
29:33
Has Penn State favored -0.6. But even if you just go off the
29:37
2.8, you know, around a three-point game, we're getting
29:40
the hook. This reminds me a little bit of
29:43
the Packers from last night, where again, they might lose but
29:45
lose by three. Key number covered with the
29:47
hook. I got to go.
29:48
Nittany Lions here, guys. Let's go Penn State, fade the
29:51
public. Let's go with the RLM.
29:54
Give me Penn State plus 3 1/2. So Miami, Ohio and Texas money
29:57
lines, Penn State plus 3 1/2. Now over to the NFLI.
30:02
Fully admit, guys, I don't love the board for this Sunday.
30:06
There were some games that caught my eye.
30:07
Like I was looking at the Chargers a little bit against
30:11
KC, but they were a trendy dog getting like 60%.
30:15
Chicago at San Fran, there's line move towards Chicago, but
30:17
they were also a very trendy dog getting like 65%.
30:21
And then you have a couple other games here where there are some
30:24
gross dogs taking the points. I ended up saying, hey, I don't
30:28
want to force it and I don't want to play a dog that's
30:30
trendy. I like the gross dogs, not the
30:32
popular ones. So I landed on 2 plays and
30:35
again, TuneIn on Sunday, 11:00 AM Eastern Time.
30:37
Because might have some line movement.
30:39
Movement between now and then might add a better 2.
30:41
But as of now, just two for me. First one's Arizona, I'm going
30:45
to Arizona. Money line.
30:46
Cardinals. Got the Cardinals at -142
30:49
they're at home against Seattle. Big game for divisional matchup
30:53
and who's going to win that divisional crown?
30:55
But I like this kind of fade, the trendy dog play first for
30:58
Arizona. This game opened Seattle or
31:01
sorry, Arizona around a very short one, 1 1/2 point home
31:05
favorite and we've seen this. Line get up now to Arizona -2
31:09
1/2 and it's juiced up -2 1/2 -. 115 like it may go to three.
31:13
So it's been pretty clear since the line was available to bet
31:16
the open to current it's all been Arizona.
31:19
And it's not that Arizona's popular.
31:21
Actually, it's the opposite. Public says Seattle is maybe the
31:24
better team, and maybe the wrong team is favored, as people like
31:28
to say incorrectly. But at DraftKings, on the
31:31
spread, Arizona's only getting 45% bets, but 56% dollars.
31:36
On the money line, they're getting 49% bets, 66% dollars.
31:41
It's a really. Good.
31:41
Buy low, sell high, play because Seattle is 1/3 straight and
31:44
Arizona has lost two straight so I want to buy low in Arizona.
31:47
Sell high on Seattle. Second straight Rd. game for
31:50
Seattle came through and I got to thank them for beating The
31:54
Jets. We had a money line last week.
31:56
But then also this is a really good rhythm.
31:59
Edge rhythm has Arizona -3.7. And if you remember, and I
32:04
remember because I had Arizona, but I took Arizona in the points
32:06
at Seattle 2 weeks ago, they lost 16 to six.
32:10
But I bring that up because it's very difficult in the division
32:13
to sweep the divisional matchup, to win both games against the
32:16
divisional opponent because of the familiarity.
32:18
You just tend to see a lot of splits.
32:19
It's very rare you see team sweep a divisional opponent, so
32:24
I like this as. A Buy low fade.
32:26
The trendy dog. Play in favor of Arizona, a sell
32:29
high on Seattle and I'm playing Arizona to win this damn game
32:33
again. I'm not laying a 2 1/2 having
32:35
him win by one or two and lose my bet.
32:37
I got him on the money line -142 I believe that was at FanDuel.
32:41
And then one total for you. I kept staring at the Sunday
32:44
Night Football game. LA Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs,
32:48
I mentioned a second ago, you did have some books that moved a
32:51
little bit toward the, the, the Chargers.
32:53
They were at one point getting like, I want to say some books
32:56
for four and a half. It's now down four, 3 1/2.
32:59
And now it's starting to creep back up again.
33:01
It looks like Chargers are a bit of a trendy dog again, getting
33:04
upwards of 60%. But then I said to myself, oh,
33:08
something's going on with this total.
33:09
I like the under here, guys. Give me the under 43 again.
33:13
Some shop some shops are at 42 1/2 a lot of shops are 43 under
33:17
-115 so if you like it, don't wait too long if it lands 43
33:21
we'd like to push instead of lose and under 42 1/2 but a
33:24
couple things jumped out to me one.
33:27
This total actually open as high as 44 1/2.
33:29
So I don't love that I missed a good number, but still I want to
33:32
be with the sharp money and we have a line move that is falling
33:37
now at DraftKings. Only 32% bets, but 64.
33:41
Percent dollars are on the. Under a really good low bets,
33:44
higher dollars bet split. There's also Sunday night game,
33:47
so contrarian play against the public and then also divisional
33:51
under there's an outdoor divisional under.
33:54
We have an under ref Bill Vinovich, who's been really
33:56
good, 59% the best under ref in the NFL and also.
34:00
Weather this is. At Arrowhead Outdoors, it's
34:03
going to be like low. 30s I don't know about.
34:06
Any wind or rain or anything or rain or snow, but it's going to
34:09
be windy. 10 mile per hour. Winds gusts up to 25 mph.
34:14
Chargers are 8 and four to the under on the year, and Kansas
34:16
City played the Chargers. This one was in LA, no weather
34:20
at all. It was in a Dome and KC won 17
34:22
to 10. So this just kind of smells like
34:25
an under play to me. We have public playing the over.
34:27
If the total is falling, have a divisional matchup.
34:31
We got windy weather. We have a good under team,
34:34
obviously with the Chargers. Is this a 20 to 17 game?
34:38
You know, is this a 1714 game 23 to 20.
34:43
We would end up pushing our our our under 43, but you catch my
34:48
drift. Looks like a lot of under money
34:49
coming in for this one. So I figured, hey, even though I
34:52
didn't get the best of it, let's grab it now on a Friday before
34:55
hopefully it closes 42 and a half 42 but a windy under system
34:59
match chargers KC under 43, So that about does it for the
35:05
episode 177 breakdowns of the all systems go pod on a big
35:09
Friday. This is the part of the pod
35:11
where we wrap things up 1st. I start by saying thank you.
35:14
Thank you for taking the time out of your busy lives to pull
35:17
up a chair to the virtual bar and sweat some sharp contrarian
35:19
breakdowns with me. It means the world that we that
35:22
we kind of look at betting similarly.
35:24
Maybe you already had a data-driven approach.
35:27
Maybe you've been introduced to the data-driven approach.
35:30
But either way, thank you for tuning in and listening to this
35:33
pod each day. But now, after I thank you, I'm
35:36
going to ask a favor of you. Could you please do me a solid
35:39
give this podcast a five star review on Spotify or iTunes?
35:42
Five stars would mean a lot. Help us to continue to grow the
35:45
pod, expand the pod. If you want to give it a follow
35:48
or leave a nice review, that would be great as well.
35:51
Recommend it to a friend. That would be great as well
35:55
anyway. Keep on cruising.
35:57
It's the holiday season. You probably have no freaking
35:59
clue what to get your dad, your uncle, your grandson, your
36:02
colleague you know, your aunt, whoever you know.
36:04
You should get them, You should get them A very simple, easy
36:07
gift. A book.
36:09
The people still read books today.
36:10
I hope they do. But you should read this book.
36:12
It's called the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
36:14
Just go to Amazon.com, type in the Everything Guide to Sports
36:17
Betting. Pick up a copy for you or a
36:19
friend or that person you have no idea what to put in their
36:22
stocking and makes a great stocking stuffer.
36:24
It's less than 20 bucks and it's got everything I've learned in
36:26
the industry. How lines are set, how and why
36:28
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
36:31
action, how to go contrary and how to place a bet in person or
36:33
online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
36:36
management plan. All included.
36:38
And the everything guide to sports betting.
36:39
So grab a copy, get it before the holiday season rushes on and
36:44
you'll be glad you did. And if you bring it to the book,
36:46
I'll sign it for you and I'll buy you a beer or a ginger ale
36:49
and we'll sweat some games together next.
36:51
Have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial of Juice Reel or
36:53
Rhythm yet? My two favorite sports betting
36:56
apps that we reference every day on the pod.
36:58
Rhythm does a great job powering this podcast.
37:01
Great for their AI back models and predictions.
37:03
Remember they had Green Bay? What was it like +2 or even like
37:06
a pick em? They had that great overplay for
37:09
Tim Patrick. So Rhythm helped us last night.
37:11
They got analytics and predictions for all the
37:14
different sports right now. Hell, they had a Houston
37:17
Christian prediction there. So take advantage.
37:19
Go download the Rhythm app. Join us on Sunday for Sunday
37:23
sweats at 11:00 AM Eastern Time. Then of course, juice real great
37:26
for the Robo Jackson best bet picks.
37:28
Arbitrage plays sharp mush indicators.
37:31
Shop for the best line futures prices, but even better, you
37:34
will have access to all of the best bets from the all systems
37:37
go pod, which are posted daily now to juice reel.
37:41
I'd love for you guys to sign up and support the pod and get
37:44
those best bets hopefully quicker than everyone else.
37:46
Right when they right when I bet them boom, their bet synced
37:49
right to juice reel. So that about does it everybody
37:52
another day, another dollar. Let's see if we can continue to
37:55
post a winning night here for tonight.
37:57
But as always, after a six and one night or a one and six
38:00
night, I hope you guys know at this point it should never the
38:03
outcome of the previous night should never affect the next
38:06
day. And hopefully we can get some
38:07
winners for today. But here's what I'll leave you
38:09
with, of course, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic
38:13
City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the brook of New
38:15
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the
38:18
Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield
38:22
in my neck of the woods in Massachusetts are out in the
38:24
desert where the true grinders get down, where Billy Walter
38:27
sends his number runners, where the lowest true as possible is
38:29
found the South Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays
38:32
jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
38:34
When you catch a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
38:37
you're going to walk up to me and boy, are you going to show
38:39
me some beautiful tickets from last night.
38:41
Packers, Tim Patrick, Penn State, TCU, Houston Christian,
38:46
UC Davis. First one's on me, next one's on
38:48
you. We'll post about the book and
38:50
sweat some great plays together. Of course, as always, some some
38:54
words of wisdom as as we steam into the weekend.
38:58
Stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet against the public, place
39:01
yourself on the side of the house.
39:02
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
39:04
Will smart money win every time? No, cuz nothing wins every time.
39:07
If you haven't realized yet, betting is difficult.
39:09
That's why when you go 6:00 and 1:00, you really have some
39:12
perspective and you can gain some confidence.
39:16
But as always, long term, sharp plays are going to win a
39:19
majority of the time. So if we can find that sweet
39:21
spot, stick toward the stick to the data-driven model against
39:24
the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid
39:27
parlays, get some closing line value.
39:29
If we can do that, and I'm confident that we can making
39:32
bets with our head and not our heart, I think if we can do
39:34
that, we're going to be OK long term.
39:36
So have a fantastic Friday night.
39:38
Have an even better weekend guys.
39:40
I'll see you for Sunday sweats, 11:00 AM Eastern Time on
39:42
Twitter. But between now and Monday, I'll
39:45
see you back on Monday for Eisode 178 of the All Systems Go
39:49
Sports Betting podcast, Owered by Rhythm.
39:52
Have a great weekend, everybody. Good luck.