Latest / The Crazy Sheet - CFB Handicapping / Episode 27: SEC 2023 Season Betting Preview

Transcript

Episode 27: SEC 2023 Season Betting Preview · The Crazy Sheet - CFB Handicapping

0:00
Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all ladies. It's that
0:05
time of year where you warm up your laptops, you get your iPhones out,
0:09
you're starting to get ready for some college football. And what do you
0:12
do. You download the crazy sheet, You get ready for some Scott and
0:15
Mark to talk about some college football, because hell, that is all we
0:19
know. Scott and my friend, it's been a long time. How the
0:22
hell are you? Brother? Man? It is awesome, glad to be
0:26
back in a long summer, loving it. Scott, We've been for pop
0:32
six weeks and just our schedules never matched foot So I'm actually having to work
0:36
again after a couple of years of coded. So this is a it's a
0:40
brand new, brand new deal. And so it's good good to be back.
0:43
We're fresh off the package. Gerald firing, so big, big time
0:48
in college sports. It's it's good time to get started by scambling. So
0:53
it is interesting. I do think the Wildcats put themselves in the cellar of
0:59
Big ten for the next decade, maybe two decades, because I don't know
1:03
who the hell's gonna want that job. But that's a whole different story.
1:07
That may be true. I thought about that the story that was more interesting
1:10
to me that pertains to what you and I talk about, which is college
1:14
betting, which was baseball, because I love college baseball. I was in
1:19
Omaha to watch LSU win the Natty three years in a row that we've seen
1:23
the SEC when the Natty and said attendance records, Jello shot records. Look,
1:29
I'm an advocate, there's a big just unbelievable. I was standing at
1:38
Roccos. If you're a college sports fan and you watch baseball, I'm standing
1:42
at Roccos and this quote unquote private party that I don't know how I got
1:46
in in a room as big as my closet, and I turn around and
1:49
I'm standing next to Todd Graves, who owns Canes, and right behind me
1:53
is Brian Kelly. And I'm not sure either one of them realize how famous
1:57
they were in this small room, but everybody's taking pictures of them. Got
2:00
to go watch LSU play. It was fantastic, best, best, one
2:05
of the best college sporting events I've ever been to. And where I'm going
2:08
with this is is then I read the story this week about the Alabama baseball
2:15
coach that got let go for gambling purposes. And I don't know if you've
2:20
read this or not, but put this in perspective and for all of you
2:23
that anybody that gambles. My man shows up in Cincinnati at the ballpark where
2:34
he can make bets through an MGM window at a baseball game and wants to
2:39
lay a hundred grand. That's one hundred I mean big sticks. Ten thousand
2:45
dollars is a stick bet in Vegas. He wants to lay ten sticks for
2:50
people that don't move so and so that everybody doesn't know that is about ten
2:57
times the action of baseball game will get on just a ran like a game
3:04
that's gonna get ten grand, because I look, I listened to bookkeepers talk
3:08
about this that it's sent off every red flag you can get, Like,
3:14
what's going on? What is this guy? Not? The guy wants to
3:17
lay a hundred grand on a random SEC Friday night game and then he's like
3:23
complaining because they won't take his bet, and I'm like, are you fucking
3:28
crazy? It's like, dude, if you're gonna try to get a hundo
3:30
down on a college baseball game and you're not in Las Vegas, Nevada,
3:36
you have no shot of getting that bet down none whatsoever. And even if
3:38
you want to get a hundo down, you'd probably you'd have to you'd have
3:45
to go to ten casinos to get that bet down without a doubt, because
3:49
who's gonna take that bet? And so everybody that talks about is sports gambling
3:53
changing the game? Blah blah blah. Of course it's changing the game,
3:58
But like, are they fixing games? No, because the companies that run
4:02
sports books they want to make money and they know immediately if someone's trying to
4:09
roll a hundo down on a game that has no action, that there's a
4:13
problem there, and they want to keep their license too, So why the
4:15
fuck would they let somebody put a hundred thousand dollars down on a random SEC
4:20
Friday night college baseball game. And I mean I laughed my ass off when
4:25
I read the details of that story. It was so ridiculous. The story
4:31
was hilarious. I mean, just and then how they called them and how
4:34
they connected the dots and all of that. I mean, it was it
4:39
was. It looked it was a great story. But I will also tell
4:42
you what's been e opening to me is the NFL that these guys, look,
4:47
man, they have gotten sports books, sponsoring stadiums and crap like that,
4:54
and they're suspending NFL guys for gambling. A couple of these guys have
4:58
been suspended for not betting on their own sport. It was another sport.
5:03
That's adsothing. I mean, that's just that's stupid. I mean, look,
5:11
nobody wants to Pete Rose deal where he betting on himself or you know,
5:14
any of those. Although Pete Rose betting on himself. I mean it
5:16
look like he's betting against himself, going to throw a game. He's like,
5:19
no, I'm the daddy. I'm gonna get this deal done, you
5:21
know, but nobody won't say obviously. Um, but at the same time
5:27
he came but on basketball, but you're gonna take all the advertising dollars just
5:30
seems kind of, you know, kind of bogus to me. But that's
5:34
all another you know, that's a whole different deal. I do think the
5:38
money is so big and gambling and going on it does scare me, you
5:46
know, the potential for players to do it. It also scares me for
5:49
because I'll be honest, I think referees can affect the game a whole lot
5:53
more on a point schedule, than anyone player can unless he's a quarterback or
6:00
a running back or somebody who gets the ball a whole lot, you know,
6:04
I mean, can the DP best pep purpose and yeah, you know,
6:09
but I mean if a linebacker missus a tackle, the next guy's probably
6:13
gonna make it. You know, it's there's only a few positions that can
6:15
really throw it. Man, an official can change a ball game. I
6:19
mean, a kid steps out of bounds, doesn't step out of my minute.
6:23
It's a lot that could go on. So it's just, you know,
6:25
I think there's concerning I think the NCAA and sports are right to be
6:29
watching it, which makes what the coach at Alabama did that much more unintelligent.
6:33
And I mean, you talk about a pariah. That guy won't be
6:38
able to get a job coaching high school baseball. He better hope Easton or
6:41
somebody hires him, because you've got no shot he's gonna be coaching baseball at
6:46
the same college Dave Bliss is coaching basketball. Crazy sport is even doing a
6:50
hell of a good job job a million dollars a year. Come on,
6:58
man, you know, I mean, look, go win, it's the
7:01
SEC West. You'll end up making one hundred and a million and a half
7:04
two means that's what lamanas and you know everybody's Johnson's what everybody else you're making.
7:11
I mean, you'll get there too. I mean, it's just that's
7:13
just absolutely crazy. But anyway, that that was an interesting story. I
7:17
am the Fitzgerald deal is thing to me. He goes home to think what
7:25
was going on was right? No friend of mine or on a group texting,
7:29
they were like, I couldn't believe you're signing off on this. And
7:31
he kindly called me out for you just setting me up to just try to
7:34
get me gone. And I was the guy started quoting a few good men
7:38
on him and stuff like that, and he's run my unit. I run.
7:43
You know. It's every great, but at the end of the day,
7:46
you know you got to be smarter than this, especially because that does
7:50
it? Does it? Does it? Does this happen not in Chicago,
7:56
if it's in the southeast or in Texas or what. I don't know.
7:59
I really it on um, it's a different world up there, and football's
8:03
taking it. I mean, did you see him. There are people that
8:07
want to put that eight hundred billion dollars stadium deal on hold because the head
8:09
coach was allowing hazing to go on at his program. I'm like, all
8:13
right, yeah, you want to suck go ahead and put that stadium deal
8:16
on hold. It's like you're gonna but I don't care how pretty your practice
8:20
facility is. You know, you gotta have it all because everybody else's gut
8:24
it. And those dudes thinking that Matt Carlwell is gonna leave. I was
8:26
taken to go to the Northwestern or full on crack right. I mean I
8:31
some of those Northwestern gradually right about who els gonna want the job Dave Claus
8:35
and they start naming all these guys. I'm like, why my heels class,
8:37
I want to go rebuild another program. He can't even keep his quarterback
8:41
at wait. You know it's like, man, come home. It's like
8:46
I've watched this. It's the same. It's like it was like watching a
8:48
Mississippi State fan based in a coaching search. Oh, we need to get
8:52
a spill. So's an SEC West school. It's the worst job in the
8:56
SEC West. We were really gonna go get it means anybody really takes first
9:01
thick. He was about fifteen. Now it worked out great, but at
9:07
the end of the day, that wasn't remotely who they wanted to hire.
9:09
And they found out Start ain't real desirable, and everybody, well, we'll
9:15
pay five million dollars. Great big schools were paying ten. You know,
9:20
it's we can't keep up and Northwestern can't keep no matter if they get a
9:24
sec matter people are going to it is hard enough to win anywhere. They're
9:31
gonna take a job where they think they can be successful. Northwestern ain't hit.
9:35
They better hope. I know there's a big offensive coordinator in the NFL.
9:39
Everybody's that Giants Jet somewhere that is an ex quarterback played under fits.
9:46
They better hope he comes back. I mean, that's that's the bottom line,
9:48
because that's the best hope they've got. But you have no idea if
9:52
a guy like that's going to be successful. Stayed almost hired Joe Judge when
9:56
he took the New York James job. That wouldn't work out any better than
10:00
Morehead did. Hey, more Head, I got some I got some action
10:03
on more Head already this season, So don't be knocking. Don't be knocking
10:09
Acron this early on because I got a little I got a little money on
10:13
Akron over Underwind total to get you there, just to be a little teaser
10:16
when we get to the Mac. When we get to the Mac Betting podcast,
10:20
he burned like here, I've been listening a couple of a couple of
10:22
guys nuts that are in the furniture business that actually went to Akron knows some
10:28
things about the program, and they say he is just recruiting, just bringing
10:31
dudes in its just if they got talent, they're coming. I'm like,
10:35
dude, I don't know how well Akron have time. But man, you
10:41
know, I don't know if you need I don't know if you need character
10:43
issues either. So because he is not a disciplinarian, So I look,
10:46
I'm cheering for him. He's a heck of a nice guy and I hope
10:50
he does excellent and have nothing but good that Joe Moorey was really good to
10:54
everybody in Star in Mississippi. He is one guys that when it didn't work
10:58
and it was not working cold and called a lot of green for firing him
11:03
with a winning record, that was Mike going the right direction and that was
11:07
the right call. But boy, he's a nice guy and I can't you
11:11
can't find somebody down there and say something bad about the guy, and that
11:13
says a lot about him as a person. And if you don't cheer for
11:16
a good dude, then that's on you. So I hope, I hope
11:20
you're right. I hope he goes over. But I'm not batting on them
11:22
two years in the row because I did last year. So anyway, excited
11:26
about the underwim Tolls early games. There's some games I like. I mean,
11:30
I'm excited about this season. I think it's gonna be fun. We
11:31
got we got SEC schedules since we're gonna talk about them tonight. For twenty
11:35
twenty four, a lot of good matchups. The only matchup that they didn't
11:41
bring back that I was hoping they would was Auburn Florida. For people that
11:45
didn't follow the league back in the day, All those used to be great
11:48
games. I mean, just and you know, the schools are pretty close
11:52
together, they recruit on top of each other. I was hoping they bring
11:54
that one back. But just I mean some really good things. My Bulldogs
11:58
go to Austin. That has not happened since Jackie, he says. Second
12:03
year Missisippi State, which was my sophomore year and that's when he cut.
12:09
That's when he castrated. That's when he castrated the steer. That's when he
12:16
castrated the freshman year and uh, they were playing in Starkville that year.
12:22
The sophomore year was the Uh. We went out there and he basically said,
12:28
look, if we don't we want, we're gonna take the ball.
12:31
If we won the toss, and he basically was getting the ball either way.
12:35
And if we don't score and we have to punt. He because State
12:41
did. Their gunner was one of the hardest hitters on the team, a
12:45
kid named Mike James, and he could hit it. And uh, he
12:48
says, I don't want you to just lay this guy out. Hit him
12:50
as fair catcher. Look, kid, way, fair catch at about the
12:54
eighth and Mike James very easy, I mean just absolutely destroys him and Jacksie
13:01
Hyppising when you walk off the field and James got tossed it all to start
13:07
to that game. So anyway, that's the first time the Bulldogs have been
13:09
back to Austin, So that'll be that'll be a that'll be a fun that'll
13:16
be a fun, fun time. So I get to see twice in the
13:20
State of Texas and then they'll be back in Fathaball next year. So I
13:22
get to see the Bulldog locally a couple of times. Well, that's a
13:26
couple of years out. So Scottie, our goal is is we're gonna roll
13:28
through this. We got about forty five sixty days somewhere in there until college
13:33
football season starts. We're gonna try to hit all the conferences. We're gonna
13:35
look at some over underwind totals. We're not gonna try to cover every team.
13:41
We've done that many times. It's painful. If you want to do
13:43
a deep dive on your own team, you can. You'll get you a
13:46
fill steel, or you can pull those things together. What we're trying to
13:48
look at is is there any opportunities to make some money if you're gonna lock
13:54
your money up, whether you're betting through credit or you're betting through a legal
13:56
gambling site, you're still having to lock your money up four or five months
14:01
if you're trying to win an over under win total. And so you're trying
14:05
to look at these games and these schedules and figure out if there's anybody that
14:09
offers some value in there. We'll start with the big dog. We'll start
14:11
with the SEC. I'm not always convinced that the big conferences offer the most
14:16
money. Now, you and I cut our teeth on the MAC about twelve
14:22
thirteen years ago when no one was talking about the MAC, and you know
14:26
now they get so much TV coverage that the MAC lines are as tight as
14:31
the SEC lines in some cases because they've got some good information in there.
14:35
But the SEC draws the most eye as it draws the most money, So
14:39
typically the lines are going to be skewed in that sense because they know they've
14:43
got to protect themselves. It's as close as you're gonna get to the NFL
14:46
when you get into college gambling when you're talking about the SEC, and by
14:50
god it should be. I mean, they've got the best teams. After
14:52
next year when they get Texas in Oklahoma, I think the SEC conference is
14:56
going to be incredible. And I will say this, of all the things
15:00
things that you and I have talked about when it comes to college football,
15:03
be at NL, the transfer portal, tampering, how it works, what's
15:07
going on, the one thing I will say, and this is what I
15:11
want to stress that we're going to talk about on this show is the product
15:13
on the field today is better than it's ever been since I've been watching college
15:20
football. I think the coaching is better because there's more money in the coaching
15:24
than there ever has been, and so the coaching is really good. I
15:28
think the talent evaluation is I mean, it's a complete industry. When you're
15:31
looking at talent evaluation from a high school standpoint, and now you got the
15:35
portal that goes into it. I got the show dogs in here arguing about
15:39
that. But the product on the field's great, and especially in the SEC,
15:43
it's going to be incredible. Well and Mark, you know, I
15:46
think there's a lot of things that go into that. I think, look,
15:50
you look at how young these kids start working and having to get you
15:56
know, coaching and things like that. They have always been playing pee wee
15:58
and wreck football and things like that. But man, there are so many
16:02
guys that are x NFL guys. Like you're in a big city like Dallas
16:06
or Houston or you know wherever, because I know guy's doing it both places.
16:10
Man, there's I mean, there's a there's a guy that does it
16:11
here was it was a journeyman NFL guy. He's a great guy. I
16:18
mean tremendous guy, and he is. He's getting kids when they're in eight
16:25
you know, they're eight years old and just teaching them drills and agility and
16:29
running ropes and Ikey shuffle and stuff like that. I mean, it is.
16:33
It is stuff that we weren't learning until we were in high school,
16:37
and these these kids are doing it in the driveway when they're getting ready to
16:41
prepare and getting ready to start practice. I mean, my son's going into
16:45
seventh grade and he's putting into work. I mean, like we were down
16:48
on the beach and running doing all kinds of stuff. I look up and
16:52
Steve Hutchinson's on the right down the beach from us, working with his high
16:56
school kid. I mean, I've looked at Chase. I told him,
16:59
if it's good enough for Hall of Famer brother, it's good enough for you.
17:02
I was like, get out here and get out here and get it.
17:03
But I just think there's so much more of that than there used to
17:07
be. Hell, I didn't do any of that, and nobody I knew
17:10
did any of it. And they start so much earlier and there's so much
17:15
knowledge, And then you combine them being more prepared as they get into high
17:19
school and college with the great coaching that you just talked about, because I
17:25
think where it's suffered in coaching is at that middle school high school level because
17:29
the money is so gigantic that these man they just are like, man,
17:33
why don't I want to go coach wide receivers out of college that can make
17:37
four hundred thousand dollars. I mean, Texas, You've got some guys making
17:41
some really good money. So I mean, I think you still got really
17:42
good coaching here. But I mean if an opportunity comes and I know friends
17:48
that have been coaching in JUCO in Mississippi because the money's big, I mean
17:52
it's and there's no stress. I mean, nobody cares if you win five
17:56
games at some random Juco and Aissippi, you know, and yet those guys
18:02
are making eighty one hundred grand and I Misssippi has big money. You know.
18:06
High school coaches aren't making that, you know, And it's a it
18:10
is a it's a different deal, you know. And that money's just getting
18:14
bigger as money gets into it. So it is an interesting time for college
18:18
football if the product is definitely better with the eyes and everything on it and
18:22
the gambling and just this information and technology age man and the transfer pool and
18:29
all those things. It's harder to win money now than ever is. You
18:32
have got to do more work than you've ever done. I would agree with
18:34
that. And with that being said, Scotty, let's dive into the conference
18:38
that gets the most eyeballs of all your favorite conference, the SEC. Baby,
18:42
I'm like going SEC West and SEC East. I want to go alphabetical
18:47
order and just roll down this roster and talk about things. Dude. I
18:49
think we've got something really interesting right here at the top. Alabama comes into
18:52
this season with their over underwent total at ten and a half games. If
18:59
you're gonna lay the over, you're getting at plus one fifty, and if
19:02
you're laying the under, you're getting juice at minus one ninety. If you
19:06
would have told me that Vegas is shading to protect themselves against an Alabama under
19:14
at ten and a half wins five years ago, I would have told you
19:18
were fucking crazy. But that's what we're seeing in this season, and I
19:22
think a lot of it's buying into the people with the media hype. You
19:26
know, you've got Tommy Reese coming in as the offensive coordinated Alabama. They
19:30
just brought the transfer quarterback in from Notre Dame after spring, which is interesting
19:34
to me because it's obvious that they don't have a subtle quarterback room in this
19:38
And then you've got saving, you know, losing an OC and a DC
19:42
in the same season that are moving on to go coach at other places,
19:47
and everybody is buying on the fact that Alabama is going to lose two games.
19:52
Now, if you go look at Alabama's schedule, You've got Texas,
19:57
You've got LSU. It's two games that I think that in Tennessee are the
20:03
three games that I'm gonna road to A and M. But I mean,
20:08
so let's say there's four games that come in there. Can you honestly see
20:11
Alabama losing three games this season? I didn't take this is the over,
20:17
but if I were gonna bet it, I would might go over at ten
20:19
and a half. But it's a pass for me. But this Alabama team,
20:22
I think they do have some issues. I am Tommy Reese ran one
20:26
of the slowest offenses in the country at Notre Dame last year. Coming into
20:30
this. He doesn't have Bryce Young to pull his ass out of a couple
20:33
of things. I'm not sure what kind of a coordinator Reese is gonna be.
20:36
They lose some talent on this side, they lose, but but Alabama
20:40
has got so much talent. They won the recruiting battle again this year.
20:42
This is to me is a hard pass at ten and a half wins.
20:45
I don't see any value on this. I will I will tell you two
20:49
things. First, I think some of their recruiting ranking is getting next Sabban,
20:56
that he's the man, sure that he is because he is a girl
21:00
walk back. It is harder to lay down the stake. Kurby smarts doing
21:04
a damn good job. And I will tell and I told you this one.
21:07
They kept playing and this is the first time Kelly's had the same kind
21:12
of talent. He never played Nick Saban with the same kind of talent at
21:17
Notre Dame. He's got that nine and in the last year he one it,
21:22
they didn't have as good a football team. Kelly's a damn good football
21:25
coach. And so you asked me, can I see it? Yeah,
21:29
I can see him losing a couple of games. I really can't. I
21:33
think I think it happens. You got it, really think heart's gonna go
21:37
on the road and beat him. But look, you were saying you hurt.
21:40
They win that ballgame last year, and this year I think was better
21:42
than this year's team, I really do. They lost the best quarterback,
21:47
they lost the best defensive player, and they lost the first round running back.
21:51
And look, Bryan Young was a guy who really was a run cipher
21:55
on that defensive line. I think he was a third rounder. They've got
21:59
some they lost some players. Now they're bamam. They're loaded, There's no
22:03
doubt about it. They don't lose guys unless they want to lose them.
22:06
And they can go get just about anybody they want out of the portal.
22:10
So it's it's bammam. Do I think it's gonna happen? No? But
22:14
could it? Yeah? If I was betting it, yes, I would
22:18
take the under. Gives you a chance to almost double your money if that's
22:23
the safer of the bets, because I can see them losing two of those
22:27
four games. They're certainly not gonna lose all four of them, not gonna
22:33
lose They're not gonna lose three of them, I don't think. But I
22:36
think they could lose two of it's baffully with Texas and Texas A and M
22:41
being as early in the year as they are. How does all this jail
22:45
and happen. Bama's ever faced a local schedule at the front. They generally
22:52
it's been later in the season when they were playing their tougher teams, and
22:55
those years A State was really good. They're playing them in November, you
22:59
know, it was a it was a different time of where the schedule met.
23:03
So I won't bet this, but if you take it, I think
23:07
you gotta take hundred well unders minus one nineties, So you're not you're not
23:11
doubling your money. You're actually had to lay almost two to one. I
23:15
doubling that. You're that they're laying the octor basically two to one. But
23:19
you gotta take the hundred. Yeah, well, I mean I will get
23:22
down with you on that, but I'm gonna pass on that one. Next
23:25
one, I go to Arkansas. Interesting team over underwent. Totals kind of
23:29
landed around seven for this squad. Uh. They lose their offensive coordinator as
23:33
he goes to TCU UH and moves over there. You've got kJ Jefferson's coming
23:38
back. I may be in the minority that I am not convinced kJ Jefferson
23:45
is a great quarterback. I was. I was convinced last year that Brows
23:51
was able to hide that guy and sneak out some plays when he can be
23:56
in there. This year, I don't think they're gonna be able to do
23:57
it, and they lose some players to the portal. They got some players
24:03
coming in this Arkansas over under win total at seven, I think the number
24:06
is about right. I don't see any value in Arkansas. Dren about that
24:10
I got. I got no value in Arkansas either. I think seven games,
24:12
it's probably right where they right where they lay in. Now, talk
24:17
to me about one of the more interesting teams in the SEC is Auburn at
24:19
six and a half. Hugh Freeze comes in here. The teams at six
24:22
and a half minus one fifty over six and a half at plus one twenty.
24:26
Their schedule is an SEC schedule. They I mean, it's manageable.
24:30
They've got all the things that go on there. Hugh Freeze to me immediately
24:34
once he steps in as one of the top four or five coaches in the
24:37
conference, They've done pretty good job in the portal. I mean, the
24:41
guy does a fantastic job of getting everything he can out of his team.
24:47
And if you don't believe that, go back and watch the Old Miss games
24:51
when he's playing Alabama, because they gave him fits and he beat Alabama twice
24:56
as a coach of Old Miss. And if someone would have told you in
24:57
a four year window, Old Miss is gonna be Alabama two times, no
25:03
one would believe you. And so I really like Mark hi Freese is gon
25:07
go back and look at the twenty fourteen year when State and Old Miss were
25:11
both really good. Prescott had State and number one in the country. Go
25:14
back and watch what they did to State at the end of the year with
25:17
nobody. I mean at bow Wallace, that's it. Everybody else that was
25:19
worth it, damn on that team was hurt. I mean, you name
25:23
it, They're gone. They were all what was a kid that was the
25:26
wide receiver that broke his ankle. Treadwell broke his ankle against Olborn like a
25:32
week or two before. It was horrible injury. Everybody that made a play
25:37
for those guys except Evan Ingram was hurt. And you're like, how are
25:41
we not covering Evan Ingram? He's the only guy out there. Free's a
25:47
great football coach. I mean it is, there's no doubt about it.
25:49
I agree with you. I would I would slide him in as the fourth
25:53
best coach in the league right now. That's to me where he falls,
25:56
and Kelly obviously saving and Um and uh Kirby are ahead of him. I
26:04
think he's fourth press coach in the league. So I agree with you.
26:08
They're at They are an interesting team. I think they're going over because I
26:11
like a lot of people hate their schedule. I like their schedule. State
26:17
and Auburn when they have good years, win that ball game. Either team
26:22
when you go look, you can go back for every they win that game.
26:27
That is a huge game for both those teams. Am I saying their
26:30
rivals, But that is a team the book. It's gonna be good.
26:37
They're gonna beat Auburn. Auburn's gonna be really good. They're gonna beat State.
26:41
That is the bottom line. They get that game in Auburn, Well,
26:42
I think State's got a little bit better roster. Oh man, you
26:48
got a first year coach going on the road against a really good coach.
26:51
I mean I lean towards Auburn in that ball game, and I think that's
26:53
the difference of what bumps them to seven wins. If I'm taking this,
26:56
I'm taking Auburn, But again, you're laying numbers. This number is right
27:00
on the money. To me, I don't think they're talented enough. I
27:04
think they're gonna go over because I think Freeze is a really good coach.
27:07
He's gonna figure out how to get it done. I agree to the game.
27:11
I want to take on Auburn's I'm gonna take Auburn against cal to cover
27:14
that number when they have to go on and play them. I think Auburn's
27:17
gonna roll those guys up like a donut. We'll get to that down the
27:18
road. And I love it that mine. There are a lot of games
27:22
on the schedule like if if if Auburn's coming too start, but I thinks
27:26
a loss, I really do uh in the exact same if everything's the same,
27:30
I think it's a loss, but I think they're gonna win that ball
27:32
game. Um on the planes. That's I think that's what the difference is.
27:37
So again, if I'm taking them, but I don't like them enough
27:40
at this number, they're also an injury or two of a critical guy from
27:42
going four and eight. So I mean it's a you know, so I
27:47
don't like this number having a lay money to get to take it. So
27:52
on to the next victim in the SEC. Next victim I want to talk
27:56
about the SEC would be the University of Florida. This team is getting more
28:02
negative hype than any team in the SEC, especially for a team that's won
28:06
a national championship. But then you know this Millennium. I mean it's like
28:11
this team is forgotten. You know, Anthony Richardson gets drafted, Everybody's like,
28:15
oh, it's a mess. Does Napier know what he's doing? The
28:18
current line that you can get on Florida, I'm looking at draft kings over
28:22
under five and a half minus one thirty under is five and a half even.
28:30
This is an overbet. For me. There is no way in hell
28:33
I can look at Florida's roster and think that they're not gonna win six games.
28:40
I mean, Graham Murtz is transferring in. I get it. Was
28:44
he great at Wisconsin? No? Was Wisconsin great when he was there?
28:48
No? And you know how I know that because they fired the coach and
28:52
they brought in a whole new system. Through this, you know, we
28:55
all remember March from his freshman year in that first game he played against Illinois
28:59
four years ago, and it was just incredible and we all thought he was
29:02
gonna be great. I think this is a good reboot system for him.
29:06
He comes in here, he gets rid of all that Midwestern pressure which he
29:08
was used to from where he grew up. He comes down to Florida.
29:11
I think he's gonna have a great season. I look at Merch this year
29:15
is last year's Bo Nicks in a sense that he's probably got more athletes on
29:19
this Florida roster than he has ever played with at the University of Wisconsin.
29:25
I don't think Napier's a bad coach. I think he's a weird dude.
29:27
But look what he did at ULLL. This was a team that won the
29:30
Sunbelt consistently and could step up. This roster is not that bad. And
29:36
when you can say all I need Florida to do is win six games and
29:38
get to a bowl, their schedules manageable. I think they can get through
29:42
this. Yeah, they're gonna have to play the Florida teams. They're gonna
29:45
have to play Tennessee, They're gonna have to play Georgia. They're gonna play
29:48
LSU. It's not easy. I'm saying I think we can get six wins
29:52
out of this schedule because I think this rosters better than what people are given
29:56
it credit for. I'm gonna punt because I just I, man, there
30:03
are a lot I feel like there's a lot of problems in games will and
30:06
I don't necessarily think it's all Billy Napier or Billy Napier's doing. I'll say
30:10
it like that. I think that n il deal was a hot mess.
30:15
I think there's a lot of things that are out of his control. I
30:18
just I don't feel good karma coming out of there, so I will pass
30:23
on this. I agree with you. It's hard for me to believe the
30:26
Gators want to win six games because Napier is not that bad of a is
30:30
not that bad of a football coach. He is a weird dude, but
30:33
it is hard to believe he won't. But man, I just I have
30:36
no confidence. I know there is no good mojo coming out of there,
30:41
and that dude is going to be fully on the hot seat as well his
30:45
athletic director if he doesn't win eight games this year. So I think I
30:51
think that. I think that mounts. They ain't, like any LSQ fans,
30:53
going to give a rip if they get Bowl eligible. They want to
30:56
be in you know, they want to be in Atlanta, and that ain't
31:00
and Georgia is gonna beat them like they stold something. Now, I agree
31:04
with you, So we'll see where're gonna go. But I like Florida over
31:07
six and a half. Haven't laid money on it yet, but that's one
31:08
of the lines I've got circled to kind of dig a little bit deeper into
31:11
next one. I go to Georgia over underwent totals eleven and a half plus
31:15
one twenty. If you want to lay the under, it's minus one fifty.
31:19
I think if you're gonna bet Georgia and you're trying to find value in
31:22
Georgia, I think you've actually got a better bet to bet them to win
31:26
the SEC. I think it's at plus one sixty is what I'm looking at,
31:32
rather than to go undefeated. If they their schedule is a fucking joke,
31:37
I mean it is. That's it. Yeah, I mean it's a
31:41
total joke. And they've got Tennessee in Florida and other than that, there's
31:47
nothing about the schedule that is difficult. I know they're breaking in a new
31:51
quarterback, but they've got all kinds of time to get the kid ready to
31:55
roll. Are they gonna have some tough games? Yeah, but they're roster
31:57
strong. But I don't see any value in over an eleven and a half
32:00
when you could stub your toe because because they're gonna have to go to Neeland
32:04
Stadium this year to play Tennessee and I don't know what we're gonna get out
32:07
of Joe Milton, But it's so late in the season. By then,
32:10
you got to think that they will have had that thing running, and Tennessee's
32:15
done a pretty good job pulling in some defensive players. We'll talk about that
32:17
more in a minute. But I do I think Georgia could play for the
32:21
National championship again this year. Absolutely. I can. I see them losing
32:24
a regular season game maybe, but I don't want to be Are they really
32:30
gonna go and defeat it again? I mean, dude, it is the
32:32
SEC. I mean, I understand Bamo found ways to lose games, and
32:38
they were as loaded as George is. You know, it's I mean,
32:43
it's man, it just seems tough to me that they'll do it again,
32:45
which is the reason I would leave this alone. Their schedule, their schedule
32:50
is a joke or a two time defending national champion. This schedule is about
32:54
as good as you could hope for. And I will say this on the
32:59
I think some of the teams in the SEC that they're catching or downway,
33:02
I only think South Carolina is gonna be as good, you know, like
33:06
there's some there's some teams that I think other people are thinking, oh,
33:08
these guys are gonna have a chance to beat them, and I just don't
33:12
know about that. I mean, George loaded, They're still loaded. And
33:15
as long as their quarterback play is, everybody's like, well, I mean,
33:20
you know they're gonna quarterback cudn't played, dude, you're not talking about
33:24
Tebow or somebody like that that is rolling out there. Many were replacing stetson
33:30
Benet and I know we did pretty well, but we saw hypedestrian he could
33:34
be. Against Ohio State. The difference in that ball game was they had
33:37
a five star quarterback at Ohio State and Georgia didn't, and they got George
33:44
was the more talented team and had the better roster. But man, the
33:47
quarterback play was not apples to apples. That is the that is the bottom
33:52
line. So you know, I can the next guy come in and do
33:55
everything Stets and Bennet did one hundred percent. Pretty clear from all the bonehead
34:00
the decisions he's made coming out of school. He wasn't exactly a rocket scientist
34:04
either, so let's you know, let's not act like you know, he's
34:07
the next Nick Saban playing quarterback. So I'm out on giving them eleven and
34:15
a half whims. That's the next thing I want to talk about. Kentucky.
34:19
We're going to have about a glorder here over under six and a half
34:22
pinus one sixty five under is plus one thirty five and six and a half.
34:27
I don't know. I think the numbers about right, but I will
34:29
say this, man, Kentucky to me, is like a giant that's about
34:31
to wake up. I think Stoops is a hell of a good coach for
34:37
what he's got there. I think they they got their NIL deal dialed in
34:40
because they had it dialed in before the NFL. The NL and Dvin Larry
34:45
is a game changer for these duds. I mean, like, I plan
34:51
on playing these ship out of Kentucky this season because you got Leary last year,
34:54
who was a I think he was one of the top five picks for
34:59
the Heisman preseason and gets hurt, but hurt about the whole thing transfers to
35:05
Kentucky and the thing with last year, you had Will Levice everybody was talking
35:08
about. But the Kentucky offensive line last year was terrible. I mean,
35:14
vice were breat up. Levice was beat up the whole year. He got
35:16
hurt in that an Old Miss game, and man, he was never the
35:20
same hand. I think it's a hand in an ankle because I think he
35:22
had a sprained ankle coming into that game, and then then he hurt that
35:27
ankle and then he hurt his hand in that game and he was not the
35:30
same player. So this is not a shot at at Levis. Most people
35:35
were thinking, Oh, you lose a guy like Will Levis, Kentucky's gonna
35:37
take a step back. I think I thinks a better year than Levis did
35:42
because it's gonna stay healthy. Because this Kentucky line is much better than it
35:45
was last year. I mean, this is significantly better. I actually love
35:50
the cast. They're one of my favorite teams. In this league. Now,
35:52
I don't like the number because you know one, you know, I'm
35:57
showing minus one forty five today, But at six and a half, I
36:00
think these guys are gonna go over that. Look, that's I'm on.
36:02
Points to the South Carolina game. Same thing as said about Mississipire State in
36:06
Auburn. You can show me a year Kentucky has had a great year that
36:08
hadn't beat the South Carolina. That's the bottom line. They put up big
36:13
numbers, they're gonna win that football game most of the time. I think
36:15
that is a swing game. Again, I think that's probably the game that
36:17
puts them over the number. And I think they're gonna be the better football
36:21
team this year. I think Larry's a huge deal for these guys. They're
36:23
gonna play great defense. Kentucky does play good defense. I think that line
36:28
is gonna be better, and I think Larry makes a big difference for those
36:30
guys, provided he can stay healthy because Levits that did not stay healthy last
36:37
year. Yeah, there's a good chance you may think this is a Kentucky
36:39
podcast before the season's over, because I think there's a team that's gonna have
36:44
a lot of value covering some numbers this year. Moving on, Scottie,
36:47
let's go to the team that represented. Get off of this because we rarely
36:52
get the same team that much love. Where can I have not talked about
36:54
Kentucktrians. It's not like we jumped on the bandwagon together. This was just
37:00
us. That's where it landed. You know. It's not like you and
37:02
I've been talking for three mon Look at that Kentucky roster. Not at all.
37:07
This is just the way the numbers failed. Yeah, I agree,
37:09
and I like Kentucky. Not enough to bet the over yet because I want
37:13
to dig a little bit more into the schedule and teams are playing, but
37:16
I like their roster. I like Stoops. I like what he's doing in
37:20
the portal. Like I said, I think if you're looking for a team
37:23
that can grow in the way that college football is shaped today, I think
37:29
Kentucky is in a good spot. And Stoops I don't think he's going anywhere.
37:32
I mean, you never hear his name come up for coaching jobs,
37:36
which is kind of crazy when you look at how bad Kentucky was historically and
37:40
nobody wants to touch him. That's fine. I think he's happy there.
37:44
His deal works out, he can get some players in. So yeah,
37:46
Devin Learry's there. This season is gonna be fun. I'm looking forward to
37:52
Scotty. Let's go a team that came out of nowhere last year. Over
37:54
underwent total for this team last year was six and a half. They ended
37:58
up in Atlanta representing the SEC West. That would be the LSU Tigers.
38:02
Over under win totals nine and a half minus one twenty under plus one ten.
38:08
I look at this one and I think this number is about right.
38:12
But I also think LSU has a great chance to win the SEC West.
38:16
If you can get LSU to win the SEC West, that's where I think
38:20
the value is in this bet. Um. I'm not sure where the ten
38:22
wins. You know, A and M's always gonna be a game. Bama
38:27
obviously gonna be a game. There's not some more a huge deal. Yes,
38:32
I think I think four states canna be really good. Yeah, I
38:36
do two and so with LSU at over under nine and a half, I'm
38:38
not against that. I would tell you I think that number is about right.
38:42
But if you want to try to bet on LSU to make some money,
38:44
I think LSU to win the West is your best bet, and then
38:46
if you want to take a little bit of a flyer, I think you
38:49
can get LSU at like five and a half six to one to win the
38:52
SEC. I don't think that's a bad bet either. To be honest with
38:55
you, I don't either. Look, I think they're good. I said
38:58
this. Look they got a lot of people back, and I think Kelly's
39:00
a really, really good football coach. I was stunned he got out of
39:05
Look at Daniels is what he is. But Kelly's a really good football coach,
39:10
and sooner or later people in America are gonna are gonna realize that that
39:15
dude is a really good football coach. I don't think he gets nearly enough
39:19
credit for the job that he does. That was a heck of a coaching
39:22
job. Last year. That team that played FSU compared to Obama, and
39:29
they're both in Louisianna. I'm sorry one was that super dumb. Great,
39:32
let's put home games. The difference in those teams and that ten weeks is
39:37
amazing to me. I mean, that is as much improvement as you'll see
39:43
from a college football team. Ever, you won't see teams get that much
39:47
better that fast I mean it was just I thought he did a great job
39:52
with that whole roster, and I think he will be again. I agree
39:55
with you on betting to win the SEC and betting for the SEC West.
40:00
I do think they can do it, but I also think could that could
40:04
that be six and two in the SEC and having lost to Florida State.
40:07
Yeah, I think Florida State below at Florid State wins at football game,
40:14
and I think they're an outside the Natty chance, you know, because because
40:17
they will be in the playoff most likely I mean usually get them in Clemson,
40:22
and I mean they are heading shoulders the two favorites in that league.
40:25
And I just I liked this Florida State team. I just think it's gonna
40:29
be good. Very interested. I don't want to get into ACC yet,
40:31
but interested to the coordinator change at Clemson looks like. So what we can
40:36
talk about Clemson later anyway on down the road. We both love the Tigers.
40:40
Let's ruts get to your hometown states. Goot, the Magnolia State,
40:45
Mississippi State and Old Miss both have over underwent totals of six and a half,
40:50
which is interesting to me. I think you've got lane Kiffin, who
40:54
coaches above his head all the time. He's done a great job what he's
41:00
doing there. You've got Zach Arnett at Mississippi State, who's taken over after
41:04
we tragically lost one of the greatest soundbites and coaches of my generation of watching
41:10
college football would be Michael Lags last year. I'm still devastated by that.
41:15
To be honest with you, I will miss him dearly. I kind of
41:19
hope they do stuff throughout the season to remember coach, but we'll see.
41:22
But looking at these two teams, and I'm wrapping them together because nobody pays
41:27
attention to the state of Mississippi Scott as you know, it hadn't done it
41:30
since twenty fourteen when Dak Prescott was there, and you had two teams from
41:34
the state of Mississippi that were ranked in the top five at the same time.
41:37
But when you look at these two teams, the Old Miss team,
41:40
I can't figure out the roster because I don't know who's gonna quarterback that squad
41:45
yet. And I like Spencer Sanders. I think he could do some awesome
41:50
things with Cushon Judkins back there. I think the offensive line at Old Miss
41:53
is gonna be better. But I just can't buy into Jackson Dart and what
41:58
they've got there. But I've heard Darts done, and so we'll see.
42:01
They think Duart had a great spring, so Sanders couldn't throw really in the
42:06
spring. So we don't know, we don't, you know, Kiffing doesn't
42:08
really know. I'm gonna be stunned if Sanders doesn't start. Now. I
42:12
do think it's gonna be funny if Jackson Dark just lays the turt in the
42:15
punch bowl. You know, good for that kid if he doesn't learn the
42:17
job, because you gotta give him a lot of credit for sticking around.
42:21
I mean they went out and well into you know, high profile guys play
42:23
quarterback, and he stuck around. I think it's in this age of just
42:29
hitting the portal man, I'm stilling that guy still there, But kudos to
42:34
him for staying. I lament continually on here that I wish a guy would
42:37
just put his head down and go to work. And that's what Jackson Dart's
42:42
done. And good for him that he's still got a chance to be the
42:45
quarterback of the team. I think I do think Sanderson's winning that job if
42:49
he doesn't. That's gonna be the worst decision in the history of transfers.
42:52
But that's a whole other story. I think the Rebel numbers right on the
42:58
money. I think they are a six seven winning football team, is the
43:01
way I see it, because I think as we're gonna get to A and
43:06
M, I think A and M is better. I've already said what I
43:07
think about Auburn. I've already said what I think about Alabama. I don't
43:12
think they're able to beat any It's gonna shock me if they beat any of
43:15
those three teams, obviously Auburn being the closest to what all miss could beat.
43:20
I think A and M's better. I think Ella shoot better. We've
43:22
laid out who they you know, who they've got to beat. I don't
43:25
have old Missis schedule pulled up, but I think they played Georgia this year.
43:30
That's it. Isn't that right? Not a schedule in front of me.
43:35
But that's so. I may be Miss speaking, but it seems like
43:37
I read that. But either way, they are in the SEC gonna have
43:42
a difficult schedule. I think this number is right where it ought to be.
43:45
How much is Kiffin going to be pulling quarterbacks and sticking another one in.
43:50
That's gonna be interesting to see because he's certainly got people to do it
43:53
with. And how fast is he yanked Dart to throw Sanders or vice versa,
44:00
because he's gonna get frustrated when somebody makes a poor decision. The offensive
44:05
line, I think, is what is going to be what to keep an
44:07
eye on. That old miss line was pretty good last year. Obviously,
44:10
Mingo was a pretty good wide receiver as was shown in the NFL Draft.
44:14
I questioned or their wide receiver is gonna be as good without a guy like
44:17
Mingo? And that offensive line is to me a question mark. I also
44:22
I'm interested to see what Golding does. I was never a Golden fan at
44:28
BAMAM. I honestly I don't think their defenses have played nearly as well as
44:32
they have in the past and other coordinators, so I am fascinated see what
44:37
he does on this. I certainly don't not trying to say I think he's
44:40
a bad football coach, because I don't think that. I just you know,
44:44
let's see, he ain't gonna Bama talent, and what does that translate
44:46
to? They gave up a lot of points of bamam and they have Bootcoodles
44:51
the talent they don't have on that defensive side of the ball, even though
44:54
it isn't more talented than it's been. So I think this number is right
44:58
there. I don't like them. I do like the under on Mississippi State,
45:01
mainly being and I'm a huge Zach Garnette fan. This is not a
45:07
shot at Arnette. This is not He's a new coach and he's young,
45:10
and my job is to analyze the roster. And man, I'm praying that
45:15
I am dead wrong. But I think as a gambler, if you've got
45:20
nothing involved in this, I think I think under six and a half a
45:23
good play. I think State's a five or seven one six, five or
45:27
six month football people think an Arizona game Week two is gigantic. I mean
45:34
gigantic. And I also want to flip to the end of the season.
45:37
And my friends are all laughing at me about this because clearly the rosters are
45:43
not the same. But you've got big game, then you got Southern Miss
45:50
and then Old Miss on a short week. How well you think State's gonna
45:53
play against Southern Probably not very well. And it is gonna be the Buzzards
46:00
super Bowl. I mean that game's gonna be on primetime TV because as he
46:04
see him play anybody that weekend, A huge game you're gonna have every Mississippi
46:09
State fans got to come back a week later. States at seven home games
46:13
this year. Heck they they have an eight. They got a bunch of
46:15
home games this year. They come back. They got to come back four
46:20
days later. How big is the crowd gonna be? Man, I got
46:23
a lot of question where it should stay. Diver to win that game absolutely
46:27
one hundred percent the board or they sleep walk and the Buzzards could be in
46:32
that ball game. Momentum is a huge deal in college fourth I think go
46:36
to two games or two critical games for State. I also go back to
46:38
Dan mull and they were the same age when they started. Everybody's talking about
46:43
arn't been so young. I think it's a great hire. Everything about that
46:46
guy screams success at Mississippi State. He fits it. He's hard nosed,
46:51
he's a grinder. He played it in New Mexico. He gets having to
46:54
do more with less. He gets more than probably anybody States hired. And
46:59
I think he got long term. He is going to do really well.
47:00
If he doesn't do well and get another job before he gets a chance to
47:04
do it really well. I really liked the guy, like everyone like the
47:07
staff. He's as symboled, but he had going to maiden State man the
47:09
first time, first time coach. And I go back to Dan Mullin and
47:15
I look back. There are two games State went five and seven Mullin's first
47:17
year. They should have gone seven and five. They blew an LSU game
47:21
down on the goal line. Had Anthony Dixon the best running back they've probably
47:23
ever had, and or certainly one of the best they've ever had. He
47:27
never touches the ball four times down on the goal line. As I'm State
47:30
flipped at the Huge Pin game same year, Anthony Dixon runs for two hundred
47:36
and twenty five yards. I think he carried the ball sixteen times. That
47:38
kid would have needed oxygen. There's a there's a play in that game where
47:44
Dixon has literally got three kids, and it's like the replacements jump on his
47:47
back, jump on his back. He is harrying kids into the end zone
47:52
and he carries the ball sixteen seventeen times. That's crazy. J got a
47:57
football he didn't need an oxygen. He'd have got it in forty times,
48:00
he'd run for four hundred and fifty yards and State would be in Houston.
48:01
Instead, they lost, as we can rate Pick trying to throw the football
48:06
instead of giving it to Dixon thinking the ball game. That's the same mistakes
48:09
the first year head coach is gonna always make. Doesn't make them bad,
48:13
doesn't make them unsuccessful. I'll take you under all Mississi State. I really
48:16
like this point. I'm sure getting a little bit of positive money here plus
48:21
one fifteens what I'm showing right now. But the bottom mind is it's an
48:23
even play. I think State is going to be a good football team.
48:27
Think they're talented. Don't knock down on this team. I think aren't.
48:30
That's good. I love the hires he's made, but I just think this
48:35
is a six one football I would agree with you. Mike Leach and Dan
48:38
Mullin, who I respect too, is really good coaches in our era.
48:45
More Head may have been too, but if you know, Leach was the
48:47
most season that they've had in there, because if you look at the coaching
48:51
tree that Mississiptate has gone through, you've got Slivester, You've got Dan Mullin,
48:54
you've got more head, You've got Mike Leach. Mike Leach is really
48:58
the only one that was in there that head head coached and he couldn't win
49:01
six games in his first season. Um, and neither good Dan, and
49:06
so I to me, this is just I think Will Rogers is great.
49:10
It's gonna be interesting to me this year. Is the won seven games this
49:15
first season? Oh yeah, yeah, the only guy? And so to
49:21
me six and a half is I'm under it. I'm just letting you know.
49:23
I'm under on Mississippi State this season. I think they could be a
49:27
good football team. It's getting the seven wins. If they get it and
49:30
they beat me, you can have my money because I think it's an underbet
49:32
all the way, like every state to the end. And what I want
49:37
to point out, I think Arizona's gonna be better. They were better last
49:39
year and I think they take another step. I think Fish, I think
49:43
he's doing a really good job. People don't realize how that program was a
49:47
dumpster fire. I mean it was a mess. Someone didn't do anything.
49:51
He was terrible. People forget be Jean Robinson is Busson and they didn't even
49:58
recruit him. I mean, how stupid can you be Kevin someone? But
50:04
whole different story. You know that Fish ain't doing that and he is trying
50:09
to do a much better job. They got significantly better talent. Man,
50:14
this team didn't sign a top five hundred player two years in a rowand or
50:19
someone. I mean this roter was naked. I mean, it's just no
50:23
talent whatsoever. You got them playing better? Can you? You can't tell
50:28
me they can't come start and win that game. They can, and they
50:31
gave, They gave leach and stayed all they wanted last year until State stretching
50:36
out. I have a couple of big turnovers. I think they absolutely can
50:38
come in and win that game. That's a huge game. They lose that,
50:42
there's no way they go over six. They gotta win it to get
50:45
over six and a half. If you hadn't, if you don't know Scott's
50:47
dug in the Mississippi State schedule yet, well then you're crazy because he just
50:51
gave you a deep dive on Arizona on the SEC podcast, Scotty excellent to
50:55
go to South Carolina over under six and a half one oh five minus is
51:01
one fifteen on the under this is a past for me. Man, I
51:05
have no idea. I like Rattler, but I don't like Rattler. The
51:09
offensive line last year had more penetration than a Zeta party when I was in
51:14
college. And so I have no idea what you're gonna get from the squad.
51:17
And so I like Biemer. I actually think he's making the team better.
51:22
But I could see him get into a bowl game and being good.
51:25
I could also see him winning eight nine games. I don't. I mean,
51:29
it's just but to me, it's a pass. I got no read
51:30
on South Carolina at this point. Yeah. The deal for me is I
51:35
just think this is the right where it ought to be. There's just not
51:37
there's no odds money to push you. What I think is risking a half
51:42
point either way. I mean, okay, maybe they won eight games.
51:45
You know, I could also seen winning six. He's doing a great job.
51:51
I really like him every again, going back to a guy who on
51:54
evensil Professor's staff and Startle, everybody loved being I thought he's a good guy.
52:00
I think a lot of people that he was a guy when he was
52:02
an Oklona. I think people were thinking of for a state coaching job at
52:07
some point down the road. South Carolina just already might think before people expected
52:12
it and could host of them. I think it's playing off for them,
52:15
but I think this is too close for comfort for me. There's they've they've
52:19
lost some guys, but maybe question can they do it? This is still
52:22
a young team he's recruiting. Well, it's still a really young football team.
52:25
Yeah. So anyway, next one, we got Scott Tennessee. This
52:29
one's interesting. It's a flatten number over under wind told currently is at nine
52:32
when you're looking at this one. So I always look at the games that
52:36
have flattened numbers on him harder because then you've got the opportunity to figure out
52:40
can you push what can you do? How can you head this? You
52:43
can go over nine at minus one thirty under it even money, And so
52:49
to me, I think this number is about right because I have gigantic question
52:53
marks about Joe Milton, you know, I mean Milton looked good at the
52:58
end of the year when Henry Hooker came out, he had a chance,
53:01
you know, he jumped in, he had the ajournal of the one game.
53:04
And then after that he gets to you know, he gets to practice
53:06
lit big gets the Bowl game, blah blah blah. But I mean he's
53:09
looked all right. But I mean Joe Milton was. People don't realize when
53:14
Hypeel got to Tennessee and they played Pitt in their opening game two years ago.
53:19
And I remember this because you and I were on Pitt and we backdoor
53:22
covered this game. Joe Milton was the starting quarterback of that game and he
53:28
got benched for end and hooker, and so I do think the kids had
53:31
I mean, I like his moxie. That he's here three years later and
53:36
he's got a chance to be in the system. I think Hypel's done a
53:38
really good job. They lost some key performers on their defense. They also
53:43
changed defensive coordinators, and so it's gonna be this It's gonna be interesting to
53:47
me. Do I think Tennessee is has moved up and it can be consistently
53:52
good and compete in the SEC. I think this is the telltale year to
53:57
see if they can do it. But the over under wind night it looks
54:00
about right to me. When you look at their schedule, I mean,
54:02
obviously they've got Georgia, They've got to go to Tuscaloosa. They pick up
54:07
A and m from the West. We just talked about Kentucky's gonna be a
54:10
dog fight, and that one's on the road. And so I'm looking at
54:15
schedule at nine wins, I think it's about right. I'm really interested to
54:20
see the first game of the year when they played Virginia. Virginia I think
54:22
is gonna be fucking terrible. But if they can't cover that gigantic number against
54:29
Virginia early, you might have some chance to find some betting value on this
54:31
team if it takes them a little bit to get get their system rolling.
54:36
But we'll see, you know. You know why I'm gonna tell you that,
54:38
like Tennessee and and why I've got some confidence in Milton now. Their
54:44
schedule, I don't love they got and the guy Georgia and both those teams
54:50
have got better rosters. It's an upset if they win those games. I
54:53
think that Bama game is gonna be really hard to win after what happened last
54:57
year. Saving is gone. Just that he don't lose two on the road
55:00
very much. I mean, that's just the duel. And but you know,
55:05
one of the things is Hypeles earned it from a quarterback standpoint and I'm
55:09
gonna go all the way back and listening to these quarterbacks that he's coached.
55:15
Twenty fifteen, Kent Myers. Most people probably have no idea who Kent Myers
55:20
is. Who's a quarterback at Utah State? Was one hundred and twenty one
55:24
for a point for one ninety nine fifteen hundred and ninety three year passing or
55:29
sixteen touchdowns, three interceptions. Somebody'd never heard of ramp three hundred and fifty
55:32
yards. Flash forward, you're gonna have heard of this guy, Drew Lock.
55:37
Anybody think those numbers grew Lock? Hung up? He's turned out to
55:40
be that kind of player. No, it was a great offense. He's
55:45
figured out how to get up. Let's go to twenty eighteen, go to
55:47
Kensing Milton. Anybody remember what kind of fantasy football stats that dude put up
55:52
that year? Those were sticko numbers. Don't he gets hurt? They bring
55:58
in a dude nobody's heard of, Dylan Gabriel and he hangs up. It's
56:01
crazy, sick coo fantasy football sets two years in a row. And then
56:07
he comes to Tennessee and we all know what he's done there. He figures
56:09
out how to get the quarterbacks and how to put the guy into this successful
56:15
how you can do it again. I think I think Milton's gonna have a
56:17
gigantic year. The kid is a good athlete. I think what he brings
56:22
is more of that Milton Gabriel kind of deal that can really run the football
56:27
at guy's physical and man, you put him out on an edge and he
56:30
maken make something happen. I like Tennessee. It don't know that I like
56:34
him over nine and a half enough to level on this team, but I
56:36
like this team and I think they could make could surprise some people. I
56:40
really, I really believe that Scott Hagans surprised people nine and a half over
56:44
underwentel. It ain't real hard to start beating ball two years in a row.
56:47
Or you beat Georgia and you went ten or eleven ball games and give
56:51
surprised some people. So I think that can happen, especially with again a
56:54
quarterback that has got a lot of question marks, you know about what he
56:59
could do start the Michian and having already gotten benched at Tennessee, and I
57:02
just think high pulled background says it's going to happen. So that's what I
57:06
like about this football team, Scott. The next team I'm want to go
57:09
to frustrates me more than any team that I have already bet on, and
57:13
that would be the Texas A And m Aggie's over underwent total has been solid
57:16
at seven and a half. Earlier in the season, you could bet this
57:20
at minus one thirty five to the over. It's creeped up to minus one
57:23
seventy five and a lot of books and the under is minus one forty five.
57:28
The Aggs we talked about him last year at Ton and we were high
57:30
on this team, and they underperformed from jump when they played Sam Houston State
57:35
in that weather delay game early on, you know, and then you hear
57:37
about them losing some people into the portal and this, that and the other,
57:42
and I know a little bit more about how the portal works, and
57:44
you're kind of getting the point now where you may need to start realizing that
57:46
sometimes coaches might want to tell these kids, hey, you might want to
57:49
get in the portal because you ain't got a spot here next year, you
57:52
know. And so that's going on more than we probably realize. The roster.
57:55
When you go look at the actual players that can trivited last year.
58:00
Look solid. Connor Wegman, I think is going to be the starting quarterback
58:05
on this team. But what I really like that I'm hearing out of College
58:07
Station is nothing they bring in Bobby Petrino, a coach that, in my
58:13
mind, wants to get back to a Power five level D one coaching job.
58:17
Whether he'll get a Power five I don't know, but he wants a
58:21
D one job again. And he gets this opportunity after leaving Missouri State to
58:25
come in here and be the offensive coordinator for Jimbo. We talked about last
58:30
year. That was one of the hottest questions. Are you gonna fire Jimbo
58:31
and pay him ninety million dollars or whatever? How arrogant is he is he
58:36
gonna step away? Can he do it? Whatever? He brings in an
58:39
ego just as big as his to coach that offense. And the one thing
58:44
you haven't heard out of College Station is noise at all. And so it's
58:50
gonna be real interesting Week one. If I look down and I see Jimbo
58:53
with his lanyard was seventeen legal sheets laminated hanging off of his waistboat try to
59:00
find the damn play or if he's actually standing there looking like a head coach
59:06
and letting Petrino call it. Because everything that I've read people that I've talked
59:09
to, it seems like it's gonna be Petrino's offense. And I think Connor
59:15
Wegman's gonna win the starting job. But if he doesn't, Max Johnson's there
59:17
and I don't hate him either. But this is what I really like about
59:21
to say a m team is this defense. I think the defense this year
59:24
and the too deep when you look at him in the trench in the front
59:29
seven, is as good as it's been in a decade. They've got five
59:32
guys that are going to be playing on Sunday in that front seven and the
59:37
starting role in my opinion, and probably in the too deep there maybe ten.
59:40
And so what I look at this team is is last year they could
59:44
not stop the run. You could line up and you could just pound this
59:47
team once you figured it out, and their offense couldn't get it rolling,
59:51
and that was where they really struggled. And so this year, I think
59:53
they've got a defense that's dominant and I look for this team to be explosive.
59:59
I like gain him a lot. I took him over seven and a
1:00:01
half earlier. I've even got a little sprinkle on him to win the SEC
1:00:06
West. I think this team's gonna be interesting, and let's put it.
1:00:09
I don't like the Aggies. I don't like betting on him, especially last
1:00:13
year. I think I lost four thousand dollars betting on the Aggies last year.
1:00:15
It hurt my balls. I like Jimbo, I like any coaching college
1:00:21
football, but there is no chance to let my kid go play for him.
1:00:23
But that's a whole different story. Having said, with you take the
1:00:29
over the Aggies going in eight games, they may win ten, they maybe
1:00:34
win eleven. There they're gonna be a better football team. I went back.
1:00:37
I had someone told me this and I went back and did it.
1:00:39
They said, go back and watch Jimbo from preseason last year and I was
1:00:43
an age fan. He said, you know, we all missed it and
1:00:45
I said, what do you mean? He said, he kept saying how
1:00:47
young this team was. They were really talented. Band in two years.
1:00:52
I got there, we're gonna be But he never talked about last year.
1:00:55
And you look, and that's may he did it. I mean, you
1:00:59
go back SEC media days. He did it a couple of times, but
1:01:00
the radio interviews and the guy even sent me a couple of links to the
1:01:05
things to be talking about. It was amazing to go back and listen and
1:01:09
we did all miss it, and I ain't missing it now because I think
1:01:14
they're gonna be a good football team. And I agree with you. The
1:01:15
good news is you're gonna know what you want to lose this but by mid
1:01:19
October, because they're gonna fire him and Petrino is gonna be the interim or
1:01:24
something along those lines. If they're you know, if they lost them supposed
1:01:29
to. I think that, like I think they're gonna go down and pound
1:01:32
swagger lad. I mean, I mean, I think that Bobby Petrino is
1:01:39
a good football coach. You you don't necessarily wanted to be anywhere around your
1:01:44
daughter or your wife or certainly not on motorcycle rise with him. But I
1:01:49
can tell you the duke and coach football, and I think he's better as
1:01:52
an assistant. I think it kind of goes off the grid. You know,
1:01:57
He's just one of those guys that that personality is word on guys as
1:02:00
a head coach, but man is an assistant, he can get it done.
1:02:04
He can call plays, and he's a college football coach. That's just
1:02:07
the bottom line. NFL team that was shown by his by his resume aren't
1:02:12
gonna put up with it. And he knew he didn't fit. That's the
1:02:15
reason he bailed at Christmas. I mean, he knew he was gone.
1:02:17
He's like, I'm out, you know So. I think Petrino is a
1:02:21
good football coach. I think this is going to work because I think Jimbo
1:02:23
wants it to work. I think he needs and I think he knows it,
1:02:29
and I think they go out and they get it done. I think
1:02:31
it's gonna be a better football team. It is not going to surprise me
1:02:35
if Mac Johnson wins the job just because of Petrino's past. He just needs
1:02:38
a guy that he's gonna get all there forgets a couple of stories about he
1:02:44
has touchdown blaze and practice and he's just going he waits to call him until
1:02:47
they baited and baited and baited and they got a safety paying attention, and
1:02:52
boom, he calls it and you'll see him. He's got his hands up.
1:02:53
It's like it's just like Giffen. A couple of times he's got his
1:02:57
hands up on sideline as soon as they snapped the football. He knows if
1:03:00
they completed touchdown. And I've witnessed it. I've been on the receiving end
1:03:04
of it a couple of times. The guy can coach football, and I
1:03:07
think it works. I think they're gonna win. I think they're gonna win
1:03:10
nine games. I think this is why those Mississippi State, Auburn. They're
1:03:15
better than Mississippi State, Auburn and Ole Miss, and I think that's what
1:03:20
propels them over this number. I think they win all three of those games,
1:03:22
and I think it doesn't matter what they do against Bama and LSU,
1:03:25
they're still way over this number. And that's the bottom line. I think
1:03:30
this is the talented football team. It's probably the third or fourth best roster
1:03:36
in the league. And that is when you got coaches like that, I
1:03:40
think it's going to look. Don't short sell Durkin. That guy's a good
1:03:45
football coach. They're young, and I'm telling you he's got some gritiness mouth
1:03:50
about about how bad they were on defensive. I know it has to piss
1:03:54
him off and at that guy and coach, so again, I go back.
1:03:59
I like his sagging football team. I think they're going over this number
1:04:01
easy. Yeah. And your point on the coaching staff, because I think
1:04:04
coaching's paramount. They have three Power five coaches that have been successful with you
1:04:11
know, I don't know if they have winning records in I don't have the
1:04:13
records in front of me, but Durkin, Petrino, and Jimbo all on
1:04:16
that roster. You've got some coaching there. And so it's anyway, moving
1:04:21
on, Scott this next bet. I don't know where you are on this,
1:04:24
but I bet it early on. Let's go to nash Vegas. Baby,
1:04:28
Let's talk about the Vanderbilt Commodores. Over now is creeped up to one
1:04:31
sixty five. Under is plus one thirty five. You know, Clark Lee
1:04:36
last year at media Days was one of my favorites. I mean, he
1:04:40
is talking about winning the conference, how things are gonna go, changes they're
1:04:44
gonna make. Unless you are a true SEC fan or a Vandy fan,
1:04:48
you probably didn't watch him play a lot. But this team got better last
1:04:51
year. I mean they got a lot better this year. And so when
1:04:56
the old Runder number came out and it was Vandy minus one fifteen to go
1:05:01
four over three and a half wins. This brother took the over right there
1:05:04
because Vandy's schedule. To me, it has some value. They open up,
1:05:10
Hawaii comes over there week one, and Hawaii is gonna be rough.
1:05:15
I mean, Hawaii's got a chance to beat Stanford maybe the next week,
1:05:18
but Hawaii's gonna be bad. Then they got Alabama A and M comes in
1:05:23
the next week. Then they've got wake Forest again, comes to Nashville,
1:05:27
and then they go to Vegas for U and LV and UNLV is gonna be
1:05:31
rough. I think this is a bet you could cash literally before you get
1:05:36
through the end of the month of September, because I think they have a
1:05:39
chance of winning all those games that they start the season win. I don't
1:05:43
have a lot of a lot of love for wake Forest. Is this as
1:05:45
I've dug into it, But I definitely think this is a bet that you
1:05:48
can hit. Even if you lose to wake Forest. Then you've got Vandy
1:05:53
sitting at home and they catch Kentucky at home. You know they can they
1:05:59
catch Auburn at home. At the end of the season, everyone's gonna be
1:06:01
sleeping on this team. I think Vandy over four wins has got some value
1:06:06
in it. Yep, that's it. And look, man, don't I
1:06:10
told you this one hundred tons. Don't downplay how much said the fight they
1:06:15
give they give the rebels every year. I mean, they did it last
1:06:16
year. They did it last year. I mean, I look, I'm
1:06:19
i was sitting in Pebble Beach. I'll never forget watching that game, and
1:06:23
I'm like, holies and then at bit yeah, and then that's right,
1:06:30
and they what the beat. But I'm telling you, don't short sell that
1:06:32
game. That's a that's a team they can win it. My thing is
1:06:35
is that I told you this. One of the quarterbacks that made all those
1:06:39
plays is and startled. I mean, he's gonna be States back up.
1:06:42
He's gonna be the guy who comes in when State needs to run the football
1:06:45
on third day and one on the goal line. And it ain't gonna be
1:06:46
Will Rogers. Um, you know, which is a good thing. I
1:06:49
think. Again, those are some things that I think States done well.
1:06:53
But I think they're gonna miss him. Um And I think, but he
1:06:58
was not gonna be the full time guy. That's why let and so obviously
1:07:00
Lee feels good about what they've got a quarterback. I agree with you.
1:07:03
This is all about schedule. To me, I think they're gonna win at
1:07:06
least four games. I think they figure out how to get four games,
1:07:10
four wins. I agree with you. They got three really good ones non
1:07:14
conference, and then can they surprise somebody else in the league? Mark look
1:07:18
at the over under totals, I mean Vegas hitting stupid. They got four
1:07:23
or five teams on their schedule with six six and a half over underwin.
1:07:27
They ain't that much better than Vaming No, no, finding little wins not
1:07:30
hard. Yeah, I agree with you, But they beat Wake fourth year.
1:07:34
They could. I don't think they will, but I think they could.
1:07:38
And again, those are all the things we start talking about. You
1:07:42
start getting into the middle of the season and teams are sleepwalking and get Missouri
1:07:45
at home, they get some teams that are close to them with these six
1:07:48
six and a half that are putting them right there, and all you gotta
1:07:55
do is win one. If you win those three games we've talked about,
1:07:57
which I think they are going to win all three of those, and when
1:08:00
all three of those you need one more win to cash this. I agree
1:08:02
with you. I can see them winning four or five games. And again
1:08:06
when you're looking for value and over under win totals. That need to be
1:08:11
one game that's going to push you over or under. That means that the
1:08:15
schedule's right on the money. You need to be able to find two or
1:08:17
three you can win for it to be a good bet to wait on your
1:08:20
money this long. And I think they're one of them. I think as
1:08:25
one of them. So I like it, and I will tell you the
1:08:28
probably the next is Kentucky. I'll tell you they were public the next and
1:08:30
I think they're the team that may shoot up. But he's got a distance
1:08:35
themselves from everybody else where. The East got Jordan inkin SLeague, and I
1:08:40
think Kentucky that thirteen. That's the SEC for me. Yeah, I would
1:08:44
agree. My three bets in the SEC I covered, and I got Vandy
1:08:47
with their over win total. I've got A and M with their over and
1:08:50
then I have Mississippi State under its six and a half. I don't see
1:08:56
a ton of value in that. When I look at a lot of these
1:08:58
teams, I look forward to some opportunities that I think are gonna be there.
1:09:01
I think Kentucky, in my opinion, is probably gonna have some of
1:09:05
the best betting opportunity as the season goes on. It's not a team nationally
1:09:11
people pay attention to, and so I mean, I can't Most people probably
1:09:15
can't tell you the last time they watched a Kentucky game unless they're a Kentucky
1:09:18
fan or they happen to be a Louisville fan, because nobody's paying attention to
1:09:23
that squad. And so I like Leary. I look forward to them coming
1:09:27
out in a hot start and Larry getting some Heisman love again like he did
1:09:30
last year. But we'll see. I think the SEC is going to be
1:09:33
interesting. But like I said, I also I also like LSU to win
1:09:38
the SEC West. But I have nothing else in the in the SEC that's
1:09:43
worth any money. Before we get off the wildcasts, you talk about the
1:09:46
schedule. They give them some early night earlier in the season. I mean,
1:09:50
you talk about Cupcake City, He's first three weeks ago,