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U.S. Federal Employment in August 2026: How Far Below August 2025? · Can't Find Job? AI Is Quietly Replacing Millions of Workers

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: U.S.
• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: federal employment in August 2026, how far below August 2025?
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: By Akira Tanaka, Global Futures Analyst.
• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Federal payrolls were about 242,000 lower in August 2026 than a year earlier, an 8.3% decline, but that drop was concentrated in federal jobs outside the U.S.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_00: Postal Service.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: Postal Service employment was higher than in August 2025.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_00: The latest BLS figures also show a much smaller change from July to August 2026, about 5,000 fewer federal payroll jobs.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: That is a change in the payroll total, not a count of people who were laid off.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: The one-year comparison.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_00: The table below uses seasonally adjusted figures from the BLS August 2026 release.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: The August 2026 estimate is preliminary.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: For the full table, please open this article on can'tfindjob.com.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: The main point is clear.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: Federal payrolls outside the Postal Service fell by more than the total federal decline.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: Postal Service employment rose by about 8,600, partly offsetting that larger drop.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: The published figures are rounded, so the component changes may not add to the rounded total exactly.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_00: This is an August to August gap, not a claim that 242,000 jobs disappeared in August 2026.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_00: It compares the payroll level in one month with the level a year earlier.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: Why the August 2025 figure may look different elsewhere.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: BLS revises employment estimates as more payroll reports arrive, and as it updates its annual benchmarks and seasonal adjustments.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_00: To make this comparison consistent, the figures above use both months as shown in the August 2026 release.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: The first August 2025 report showed a different estimate, which has since been revised.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: The August decline was about 5,000 jobs from July to August 2026.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: Seasonally adjusted federal payrolls fell from 2.679 million to 2.674 million, a decline of about 5,000.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: The components show where that monthly change came from.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: Federal employment excluding the Postal Service fell by about 3,300.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: Postal Service employment fell by about 1,500.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: The combined change is close to 5,000.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: Small differences reflect rounding.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: This monthly movement should not be described as 5,000 layoffs.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: The BLS payroll survey measures the number of jobs on payrolls during the reference pay period.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: It does not say why the total changed.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: A lower total can reflect different hiring and departure patterns.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_00: Layoffs are only one type of separation.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: The August estimate is also marked preliminary, and BLS may revise it.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: The 5,000 decline is a useful data point, but it is not a final tally of people or a record of each worker's reason for leaving.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_00: What JOLTS can and cannot tell federal applicants.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: BLS's August 2026 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, estimated 113,000 openings in its federal category, with an openings rate of 4.0%.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_00: That is an aggregate estimate, not a list of openings at individual agencies.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: The published table breaks results out by industry.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: It does not give separate counts for departments such as State, Veterans Affairs, or the Environmental Protection Agency.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: Joltz also uses a specific definition of an opening.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: A position must exist, have work available, be able to start within 30 days, and be under active recruitment from outside the establishment.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_00: Positions open only to internal transfers or promotions are excluded.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: So the Jolt's estimate is not the same thing as every unfilled, planned, or internally advertised job.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: There is another important difference.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: Payroll employment and job openings measure different things at different times.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: Payroll employment counts jobs held during the pay period that includes the 12th of the month.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: Joltz openings count qualifying positions open on the last business day.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: Neither measure by itself reveals an agency's full hiring plan or current vacancy list.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: What the numbers mean for federal workers and applicants.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: For current employees, the year-over-year figure confirms that the federal payroll is substantially smaller than it was in August 2025.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: But BLS's broad federal category cannot say which agencies, occupations, or locations account for that decline.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: For applicants, the data point to a more competitive federal job market overall.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: But they do not prove that every agency has stopped hiring.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: The 113,000 Joltz openings estimate cannot tell you which agency has a suitable vacancy.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: Agency-specific announcements are needed for that.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: The payroll figures also do not show whether work was removed, shifted to contractors, reorganized, or handled in another way.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_00: They track federal payroll jobs, not all work performed for the government.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_00: That is the firm conclusion the data support, a much smaller federal payroll than a year earlier, but no agency-by-agency hiring map and no layoff count.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_00: Conclusion: In August 2026, federal payroll employment stood at$2.674 million, about 242,000 or 8.3% below August 2025.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: The reduction was concentrated outside the Postal Service, whose employment was slightly higher over the year.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: The separate August decline of about 5,000 jobs is a net payroll change, not proof that every position represented a layoff.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: Sources BLS The Employment Situation August 2026.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, August 2026.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: BLS Jolts Table 1, Job Openings by Industry.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: BLS The Employment Situation, August 2025.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: All links to sources are available in the text version of this article.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: You can find a full article at campfindjob.com.blog.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for listening.
• 5:55
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• 6:01
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