Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA DFS - UFC 306 | September 14, 2024 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process
Transcript
- 0:05Speaker 1: Fall systems going.
- 0:06Speaker 2: We're clear, you're lifting.
- 0:36Speaker 3: What is going on? Everybody happy? Ten fights boo, But
- 0:42Speaker 3: we're in the sphere. You have seen no cha. Dana
- 0:44Speaker 3: White is hype this one up for a long time,
- 0:47Speaker 3: put a lot of money into it. Says it'll be
- 0:50Speaker 3: the greatest combat sports enter or entertainment I think in
- 0:54Speaker 3: the sphere forever.
- 0:56Speaker 2: I don't know.
- 0:56Speaker 1: We'll see what he has going.
- 0:57Speaker 3: There's like a movie that will be going on on
- 1:00Speaker 3: the screen in between fights. I've hear and really interested
- 1:03Speaker 3: how it's gonna play out. But I do know though,
- 1:05Speaker 3: two title fights, I mean, man, the main event, Rob
- 1:08Speaker 3: and Shawan should be so much fun. Big Boy prizes.
- 1:12Speaker 3: Second week of the qualifier, the head to head qualifier.
- 1:14Speaker 3: Many ship and Nation members still left there, so it's
- 1:18Speaker 3: gonna be a very fun Saturday. Football is going on
- 1:21Speaker 3: right now because you probably see Big Marley looking up.
- 1:23Speaker 3: We still got he Rouchieta, Sean Sullivan and Ben. But
- 1:27Speaker 3: Big Marley gotta show, gotta say hi to you, and
- 1:29Speaker 3: gotta really congratulate you. Last Friday one hundred and like
- 1:33Speaker 3: sixty bucks into one hundred and twelve thousand dollars. If
- 1:36Speaker 3: you want to say the story you told me a
- 1:38Speaker 3: little pre show. It was really awesome. Such is such
- 1:40Speaker 3: a big win, though you cannot no one deserves it
- 1:43Speaker 3: more than you, big Marley grind out there, So congrats.
- 1:45Speaker 1: Do you want to say the story was pretty cool?
- 1:48Speaker 2: Thanks? Man? Yeah it was. It was huge, one hundred
- 1:51Speaker 2: and sixteen dollars into one hundred and sixteen grand. It
- 1:55Speaker 2: was really the only lineup I was gonna run with.
- 1:57Speaker 2: And then maybe an hour before the game was like,
- 2:01Speaker 2: I was throwing a second one. I didn't even need
- 2:03Speaker 2: the second one because I had the nuts like three
- 2:05Speaker 2: days before it even started, so worked out for me.
- 2:08Speaker 2: I went double kicker. I was going to bed. Actually,
- 2:12Speaker 2: I was telling you that I was going to bed
- 2:14Speaker 2: like an hour before the game even ended. I was
- 2:15Speaker 2: getting too tired. Didn't think I was gonna win the
- 2:17Speaker 2: whole thing. And then with my double kicker, I heard
- 2:20Speaker 2: dream Bay had a kick, and I started perking up
- 2:22Speaker 2: a little bit. And then I heard the Eagles are
- 2:24Speaker 2: down at the goal line about to kick too, so
- 2:26Speaker 2: I said, okay, let's wake up, let's watch this damn game.
- 2:29Speaker 2: And then as soon as I didn't even look it,
- 2:30Speaker 2: I just I was just hoping that I was somewhere
- 2:32Speaker 2: up top. And then the game ended, and immediately Tambau
- 2:37Speaker 2: was like, congrats, bro, and I was like, oh, I
- 2:39Speaker 2: want something. And I looked and I was like, oh
- 2:41Speaker 2: my god, one hundred and twelve K. I was like,
- 2:43Speaker 2: I couldn't I couldn't even believe. I had to wake
- 2:45Speaker 2: the wife up. So we were pumped. Didn't sleep for
- 2:47Speaker 2: like two hours after that. But now I again, man,
- 2:51Speaker 2: it's just not gonna be the same, not winning one
- 2:52Speaker 2: hundred k, you know every single week.
- 2:54Speaker 3: Hey, yeah, save something for the rest of us. I
- 2:56Speaker 3: know a couple of us going for that hundred K tonight.
- 2:58Speaker 3: But awesome, awesome stuff. Hey, a little more bankroll booze
- 3:02Speaker 3: for MMA this weekend. Again, big prizes out there. Ten
- 3:05Speaker 3: fights not good, two title fights though really big, and
- 3:08Speaker 3: the two title fights both very close. Odds minus one
- 3:12Speaker 3: thirty two is Sewan, minus one thirty nine is Grosso.
- 3:15Speaker 3: The mid tier is absolutely loaded those two fights, and
- 3:18Speaker 3: then Danuel torres Ignascobam Mundees that's like the three best
- 3:22Speaker 3: fights on the card right in the mid tier.
- 3:24Speaker 1: Then we have a really big favorite.
- 3:25Speaker 3: So I'm just jumping in my slate overview quick one
- 3:28Speaker 3: really big favorite minus one thousand. Ralu Rosas Junior, a
- 3:32Speaker 3: wrestler grappler fights most likely to finish on the card.
- 3:36Speaker 3: He's minus three sixty inside the distance plus one forty
- 3:39Speaker 3: five in round one, So we have one guy ninety
- 3:42Speaker 3: seven hundred clears day the best play on the slate.
- 3:45Speaker 3: I absolutely loaded mid tier and then some live dogs
- 3:48Speaker 3: down low. So for being a ten fight card, it's
- 3:51Speaker 3: actually one of the best time fight cards you can have.
- 3:54Speaker 3: It still stinks as ten fights, but I'm expecting a
- 3:56Speaker 3: couple bangers on here. Any initial DFS thot entertainment thoughts,
- 4:01Speaker 3: sphere thoughts before we go fight by fight.
- 4:04Speaker 2: Yeah, I wish I was there, man, I'd be sick
- 4:06Speaker 2: to see this card at the sphere. Definitely sucks having
- 4:10Speaker 2: ten fights for DFS. I'm not really looking forward to
- 4:12Speaker 2: it for a DFS purpose, but hopefully we'll find some
- 4:16Speaker 2: best to throw out their profit one way or another.
- 4:19Speaker 2: But this is just gonna be a good card to
- 4:20Speaker 2: watch just to see what they do. I do think
- 4:23Speaker 2: whatever Dana has planned it, it probably will be the
- 4:25Speaker 2: coolest sporting event of all time, So be sweeter to
- 4:29Speaker 2: be there. But at least we'll see it on TV
- 4:31Speaker 2: and hopefully when some money too.
- 4:33Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, I agree, GPPs, I'll be probably lower volume
- 4:36Speaker 3: than average. It's just like I usually, I'm on ten
- 4:38Speaker 3: fights and I have enough a big enough sweat in
- 4:41Speaker 3: the head to head qualifier that I'm excited for to
- 4:44Speaker 3: make watching it a lot of fun.
- 4:46Speaker 1: But that's what I'm gonna do.
- 4:47Speaker 3: We're gonna do something new on this show, big Brother,
- 4:49Speaker 3: so they're gonna go bottom to the top, but just
- 4:51Speaker 3: shipping Nation dot com.
- 4:52Speaker 1: We haven't showed off the stones. Of course.
- 4:54Speaker 3: We have projections, ownership, core report, slate plan where I
- 4:57Speaker 3: breakdown all the fights rankings eighty six hundred above, eighty
- 5:01Speaker 3: five to seventy seven the lower tier have them ranked
- 5:04Speaker 3: with some notes Big Marley's fight rankings, and.
- 5:07Speaker 1: Then just the Vegas odds and stuff.
- 5:09Speaker 3: But the stone right here, a little piece of premium
- 5:12Speaker 3: content will be shown on here. We don't have our
- 5:15Speaker 3: projections and ownership up quite yet. I'm looking at our
- 5:18Speaker 3: ownership behind the scenes. I'll mention some, but this is
- 5:20Speaker 3: the one stop shop. You can see everything you need
- 5:23Speaker 3: to know. I will take these people tomorrow. We're going
- 5:25Speaker 3: to keep all that premium DK pricing, FanDuel pricing their records,
- 5:30Speaker 3: their height, their age, their reach, significant strikes per minute,
- 5:34Speaker 3: takedowns per fifteen minutes, very important stats.
- 5:37Speaker 1: We reference a lot on here the record.
- 5:40Speaker 3: Again and then like their money line, they're inside how
- 5:43Speaker 3: likely the fight is to finish? A one stop shop
- 5:45Speaker 3: and premium content. So Big Marley does fight rankings. He
- 5:49Speaker 3: predicts how the fights are going to end, and then
- 5:51Speaker 3: he breaks down a little blurb about how he's approaching
- 5:54Speaker 3: it dfs. Then he ranks it on the scale from
- 5:56Speaker 3: one to five, five being the best. Then there's six
- 6:00Speaker 3: that he breaks up in between each fighter. As you
- 6:03Speaker 3: can see four right here, this one almost no interest
- 6:06Speaker 3: in SUSA, no interest in the fight, but in the fight,
- 6:10Speaker 3: your yasmin is the preferred play by a lot. That's
- 6:13Speaker 3: kind of how you read these tutorials. Given away again
- 6:17Speaker 3: a little the fight rankings, the stars, the numbers.
- 6:20Speaker 1: We're gonna go bottom to the top, though, But.
- 6:22Speaker 3: I wanted I just updated these odds like two hours ago.
- 6:26Speaker 3: So if I say different odds on fight odds dot io,
- 6:29Speaker 3: that means it did change or was line movement in
- 6:31Speaker 3: the last two hours. So this again will be filled
- 6:34Speaker 3: out color coded projections. Ownership, what they would do weigh
- 6:38Speaker 3: in at is right there as well. But we're gonna
- 6:41Speaker 3: leave this up and then you can get a little
- 6:42Speaker 3: better idea. Who is takedowns, the volume, how big Marley
- 6:46Speaker 3: likes it, et cetera.
- 6:47Speaker 1: So let's go bottom to the top.
- 6:50Speaker 3: Rother Rosas Junior, who we mentioned the biggest favorite on
- 6:52Speaker 3: the card, minus one thousand taking on I'll tak taking
- 6:57Speaker 3: on oor key Lane minus five point fifty for this
- 7:00Speaker 3: fight to finish, Rosas Junior minus three sixty IORI Key
- 7:04Speaker 3: Lang plus six fifty inside the distance as you can
- 7:08Speaker 3: see a four start, I know you like this fight
- 7:10Speaker 3: a little bit, and I will say you have two
- 7:12Speaker 3: stars for key Lange instead of the one that I expected.
- 7:16Speaker 1: So are you keeping him in the pool? How do
- 7:18Speaker 1: you see this fight going?
- 7:20Speaker 2: Yeah, on ten fight card, I'm gonna keep him in
- 7:23Speaker 2: the pool. I think the line is actually a little
- 7:25Speaker 2: bit crazy. I think a lot of it is just
- 7:27Speaker 2: because Ross is a young, hyped up prospect in a
- 7:32Speaker 2: you know, like a Mexican based card, so the UFC
- 7:36Speaker 2: wants him to win. So I do agree with him
- 7:38Speaker 2: being a pretty big favorite, but minus one thousands just
- 7:40Speaker 2: getting a little out of control. I do think a
- 7:43Speaker 2: Ricci Lang. You taught me how to say his name.
- 7:45Speaker 2: I was saying Aori key Lang at first, and you're like,
- 7:47Speaker 2: it is a.
- 7:48Speaker 1: Rician I toast here and now we're throwing it back.
- 7:51Speaker 1: It didn't sound right, but all right, a Ricci Lang.
- 7:54Speaker 3: Uh.
- 7:55Speaker 2: But I think.
- 7:56Speaker 1: Rewards went out big Marley have all b MMA, it
- 7:59Speaker 1: was a million.
- 8:00Speaker 2: Yeah, I feel you. Yeah. I think Richi Lang is
- 8:04Speaker 2: the better striker of the two. I think he's more
- 8:06Speaker 2: alive to get a knockout. It's just that Roses should
- 8:09Speaker 2: be looking for grappling early and often, and if he
- 8:11Speaker 2: does the win this fight, he's probably gonna score well.
- 8:14Speaker 1: Uh.
- 8:14Speaker 2: You mentioned plus one forty five to win in round one,
- 8:17Speaker 2: that's pretty solid. He's like minus one fifty five to
- 8:20Speaker 2: get a submission at some point in the fight. So
- 8:23Speaker 2: if he's looking for takedowns, if he can rack him up,
- 8:25Speaker 2: if he can spend a lot of time on the ground,
- 8:27Speaker 2: even in a decision, he can score well. But like
- 8:30Speaker 2: last week, Dulgarian scored well, but he wasn't even on
- 8:33Speaker 2: the optimal lineup with like one hundred and twenty one
- 8:36Speaker 2: or two points. Now one hundred twenty five, damn, And
- 8:40Speaker 2: now we got ninety seven hundred for Rosas. He's gonna
- 8:43Speaker 2: be super chalk as well, so I think we can
- 8:47Speaker 2: get away from him on a ten fight card. But
- 8:51Speaker 2: he's similar to Dulgarian. I think he's the most likely
- 8:54Speaker 2: hundred plus score well aside from the championship fights, I
- 8:58Speaker 2: think he's the most likely hundred point score. I think
- 9:00Speaker 2: he's a pretty solid win and if he does win,
- 9:02Speaker 2: he should score well. So I want him, but nobody's
- 9:05Speaker 2: gonna play a Ricci Lang for that reason. I do
- 9:08Speaker 2: want to get a little bit of him. I'll mix
- 9:10Speaker 2: him in with the championship fights. He'll be my way
- 9:12Speaker 2: to get different, and once I use him and those
- 9:15Speaker 2: two championship fights, I can probably do whatever I want
- 9:17Speaker 2: with my other three lineups, just because he'll be so
- 9:20Speaker 2: low home, so I'll keep him in my player pool.
- 9:23Speaker 2: Maybe I'll even like get around fifteen percent something like that,
- 9:27Speaker 2: try and get around double the field is what I'm
- 9:29Speaker 2: guessing on that. But I think he's live to knock
- 9:32Speaker 2: this kid out, and then maybe Roass wrestles heavy early
- 9:35Speaker 2: and he starts to tire out. Maybe Riachi Lank can
- 9:38Speaker 2: put it on him late. I just think he's a
- 9:39Speaker 2: little bit more live than Vegas does, I guess, so
- 9:43Speaker 2: I'll take Roases to get a submission, probably first second round,
- 9:47Speaker 2: but I can't be too much over the field on him.
- 9:50Speaker 2: I have him as the highest ton guy on the
- 9:51Speaker 2: entire card, so I'll probably be a little bit around
- 9:54Speaker 2: field way and then Richi Lang will technically be my
- 9:57Speaker 2: leverage play.
- 9:58Speaker 1: Great breakdown we reachin, but what's going on.
- 10:02Speaker 3: I'm gonna see Joe and Ryan, Ka, Tabreu, Cheetah, Sean
- 10:06Speaker 3: Sultan and Ben. Yeah, that's a great breakdown. So just
- 10:10Speaker 3: an interesting thing. This line opened minus three fifty plus
- 10:13Speaker 3: two eighty five Rob Rosas. He's now minus one thousand.
- 10:17Speaker 3: It was minus eight hundred like two days ago. Still
- 10:20Speaker 3: money coming in on him. I think he takes him
- 10:23Speaker 3: down early and dominates. But it was the same thing
- 10:25Speaker 3: with Dulgary and I wrote it up in the sleigh plan.
- 10:27Speaker 3: One twenty five might not be enough. Now I do
- 10:30Speaker 3: think it's a better card. I think there's more live
- 10:33Speaker 3: dogs and the mid tiers completely loaded this week compared
- 10:36Speaker 3: to last week, where I feel better about Rosas, like
- 10:40Speaker 3: I'm Dulgarian rag third in our tier rankings last week
- 10:43Speaker 3: behind Sean Brady and Garcia because of the prices. This week,
- 10:47Speaker 3: I have Rosas one, and a lot of that is
- 10:49Speaker 3: because those main events are in the mid tier. But
- 10:51Speaker 3: I do think with how loaded the mid tier is
- 10:54Speaker 3: and with the seven k a couple live dogs down there,
- 10:57Speaker 3: that I think one hundred and twenty five, if he
- 10:59Speaker 3: gets set, is a lot more likely to be optimal
- 11:02Speaker 3: this week, I guess, is what I'm trying to say.
- 11:04Speaker 1: And I'll never chirp any lowest owned play on the boards.
- 11:07Speaker 3: We have giveaway ownership in this one fifty nine percent Rosas,
- 11:11Speaker 3: which is the highest on the slate. We have it
- 11:14Speaker 3: Iriachi Long the lowest at eight percent. I will never
- 11:17Speaker 3: argue that much leverage on a ten fight card when
- 11:20Speaker 3: it's already hard to get different. You can play both
- 11:22Speaker 3: five round fights. You can really do whatever you want.
- 11:24Speaker 3: Like Big Marley said, So great breakdown, Let's keep it rolling.
- 11:28Speaker 3: Joshua Van edgar Chyra's minus two thirty five Van plus
- 11:32Speaker 3: two hundred chyras plus one forty five for this fight
- 11:35Speaker 3: to finish. Joshuavan plus two thirty chyras plus four to
- 11:39Speaker 3: twenty five.
- 11:41Speaker 1: As you can see right here on the stone, significant
- 11:44Speaker 1: strikes per minute eight point five to five. That is
- 11:48Speaker 1: hashtag good for sure.
- 11:49Speaker 3: As you can see color coding green, good, red, bad, white, neutral,
- 11:54Speaker 3: Joshua Van, I think he's gonna be relatively low owned.
- 11:58Speaker 3: Do you think he's a pivot? Do you think he
- 11:59Speaker 3: can get a knockout? And who just scored a touchdown?
- 12:01Speaker 3: While you're going like.
- 12:02Speaker 2: This, James Cook second touchdowns? Throw your running running? Okay?
- 12:12Speaker 2: I prefer Actually yeah, I think it was a solid fight.
- 12:16Speaker 2: I like both sides of this one. I might even
- 12:18Speaker 2: bump this one up to a four star. It's really
- 12:22Speaker 2: a three star because I'm picking Van to win. In
- 12:25Speaker 2: Van at eighty nine hundred is okay, I don't love it.
- 12:30Speaker 2: I think he can score well, probably will score around
- 12:32Speaker 2: ten x if he gets the win. I think he's
- 12:35Speaker 2: our better striker or higher volume striker, just a better
- 12:38Speaker 2: boxer overall, more likely to get a knockout. He could
- 12:41Speaker 2: score one hundred plus, but I think he's more likely
- 12:43Speaker 2: to score around eighty nine than he is more than
- 12:45Speaker 2: one hundred. Uh So, I just don't want to get
- 12:48Speaker 2: crazy amount of leverage on him. But the Chyras had
- 12:51Speaker 2: at seventy three hundred, I think Chyros could break the slate,
- 12:54Speaker 2: maybe get a first round submission ninety five plus points,
- 12:57Speaker 2: and just be on the optimal lineup. So I think
- 13:01Speaker 2: their salaries is what makes me have this as a
- 13:04Speaker 2: three star for now. Van coming off a knockout loss,
- 13:08Speaker 2: his first loss. Who knows how he's gonna come back
- 13:10Speaker 2: after that one. I do think he's gonna have a
- 13:12Speaker 2: big edge on the feet. But if he takes down Chyraz,
- 13:15Speaker 2: I could see Chyros maybe even choking him out with
- 13:17Speaker 2: the guillotine or something like that. If Chyros can take
- 13:20Speaker 2: Van down, I think Van could be in trouble. So
- 13:24Speaker 2: maybe Chyrez is my preferred play in this one, and
- 13:27Speaker 2: he'll help me get up to a little bit more
- 13:29Speaker 2: roast as junior lineups as well. But I'll be sprinkling
- 13:33Speaker 2: both guys in. Maybe I'll be around field weight on
- 13:36Speaker 2: Van and then I'll probably get a little bit of
- 13:38Speaker 2: leverage on Chirez. I think he's one of the better
- 13:40Speaker 2: punts on the board this week. So yeah, I think
- 13:45Speaker 2: picking Van to win, but Chyrez, if I'm making like
- 13:47Speaker 2: one lineup, I'd probably rather use him.
- 13:50Speaker 3: I'm with you, Chyro's is my preferred play too solid
- 13:52Speaker 3: inside the distance plus four twenty five has the submission
- 13:56Speaker 3: upside on the ground and on the feet.
- 13:59Speaker 1: Van's a better.
- 13:59Speaker 3: Story are he's more, he throws a lot more volume,
- 14:03Speaker 3: but coming off that knockout to Charles Johnson not a
- 14:05Speaker 3: great look. Chiros can't crack a bit. He has solid
- 14:08Speaker 3: light kicks, He's tough. So yeah, I think this is
- 14:11Speaker 3: the line's a little wide, but the sixteen hundred savings
- 14:14Speaker 3: is the main reason. I like Chyra's and you look
- 14:17Speaker 3: at it twenty two years old for Van twenty eight
- 14:19Speaker 3: for Chira's reach advantage six inches on the Chyra's side
- 14:23Speaker 3: two inches per heights.
- 14:25Speaker 1: At this price, we need live dogs. I'm with you.
- 14:27Speaker 1: Chyros is my preferred play too.
- 14:29Speaker 3: Van is a pivot in the top tier, though, like you,
- 14:33Speaker 3: if you're eating or playing someone in o'malian Morob playing
- 14:36Speaker 3: someone with grosso Chefschenko playing a fighter in Bob Mundas Toris,
- 14:40Speaker 3: that's mega mega chalk. I wouldn't mind. Then if you
- 14:43Speaker 3: build out a Rosace lineup dropping down to Van, leaving
- 14:46Speaker 3: eight hundred and just hoping Van outscores Rosas and others
- 14:50Speaker 3: above a lot of out volume plus two thirty inside
- 14:53Speaker 3: the business prop isn't bad and a lot of his stoppages,
- 14:56Speaker 3: in my mind, would be late stoppages, just that by
- 15:00Speaker 3: one thousand cuts volume and those can rack up a
- 15:02Speaker 3: lot too, so he'll be away. I get different on
- 15:05Speaker 3: a ten fight card, more than a reach. You long
- 15:07Speaker 3: for twenty teams unless for me, but I do like
- 15:10Speaker 3: your Ricci call. I just try and have I have
- 15:12Speaker 3: four fades in twenty and below, which is scary, but
- 15:14Speaker 3: if it works.
- 15:15Speaker 1: Out, you're a lot more live to shit. Let's get
- 15:18Speaker 1: to the next fight.
- 15:19Speaker 3: Second biggest favorite on the card Yasmin Yurgi minus five
- 15:22Speaker 3: hundred taken on Ketlndsuza, who's plus three eighty five. This
- 15:26Speaker 3: fight's one of the most likely to go the distance
- 15:28Speaker 3: on the card at minus two fifty plus two to
- 15:31Speaker 3: twenty inside the distance for Yasmin plus nine hundred for Susa.
- 15:34Speaker 3: Yasmin's one of those fighters where she will be low
- 15:37Speaker 3: owned a pivot in the upper tier. If you think
- 15:40Speaker 3: she has the upside, she showed it against Aldonna or
- 15:44Speaker 3: Estella Newtonia has excuse me putting up like a one
- 15:46Speaker 3: to twenty five piece, But then her other two UFC
- 15:49Speaker 3: wins decisions in the sixties, so not something I love again.
- 15:54Speaker 3: I'll probably fade in twenty and below keep in the pool,
- 15:59Speaker 3: just in Chalky lineup and other stuff.
- 16:01Speaker 1: Susa. I don't really like too much.
- 16:03Speaker 3: Either of the money's going against her right now, but
- 16:06Speaker 3: I would say she's my preferred play because seventy could
- 16:09Speaker 3: be enough at her price.
- 16:10Speaker 1: How do you see it?
- 16:13Speaker 2: I just think Warreggy's a little bit better everywhere. I
- 16:16Speaker 2: would think that Susana needs to take this fight to
- 16:18Speaker 2: the ground to have somewhat of a chance. But Reggy's
- 16:22Speaker 2: hard to take down. And on the regional scene, there
- 16:24Speaker 2: was this one fight where her opponent tried to take
- 16:26Speaker 2: her down. Like the whole fight, She's like hopping around
- 16:28Speaker 2: on one leg and she just refused to go down.
- 16:30Speaker 2: It was really impressive actually, And I think Warregi's gonna
- 16:34Speaker 2: have a big striking edge. I think she's gonna be
- 16:35Speaker 2: much more aggressive, throw the crispers shots, throw the harder shots,
- 16:39Speaker 2: more likely to get a TKO. So I think I'm
- 16:42Speaker 2: gonna fade Susa. She's one of my favorite fades on
- 16:45Speaker 2: the card, I think, And then war Reggi is just
- 16:47Speaker 2: away from me to get different. If this was a
- 16:48Speaker 2: twelve fight card, probably exing this whole fight out, but
- 16:52Speaker 2: with ten fights to work with, I think what you
- 16:55Speaker 2: were talking about with Van just kind of go down
- 16:56Speaker 2: with your favorite roses lineup down to Van. I'm cool
- 16:59Speaker 2: doing that with WREGI at like half or a third
- 17:02Speaker 2: of the ownership of Rosas Junior. I do think she's
- 17:06Speaker 2: somewhat live to get a first round knockout just by
- 17:09Speaker 2: being that much better on the feet. And I like
- 17:11Speaker 2: her aggressiveness on this Mexican card. Yeah, give meregi or
- 17:16Speaker 2: pass on this one. I think she goes out there
- 17:18Speaker 2: and probably wins all three rounds and just doesn't score enough.
- 17:21Speaker 2: But with ten fights, I'll be hoping she gets a
- 17:23Speaker 2: t K.
- 17:24Speaker 1: Yeah, that's my hope too.
- 17:25Speaker 3: Well, what you said at first, that's three rounds on enough,
- 17:28Speaker 3: but it makes sense at the low ownership, why you
- 17:31Speaker 3: want that her round one prop opened plus six hundred
- 17:34Speaker 3: and now plus five hundred to going in the direction
- 17:37Speaker 3: you'd like to see if you are back in Yasmin,
- 17:40Speaker 3: I answered in chap, but Ortega Lopez is three rounds,
- 17:44Speaker 3: it's Grosso Chevchenko for the belt is five rounds, and
- 17:47Speaker 3: then sugar.
- 17:48Speaker 1: Verrob is five rounds as well.
- 17:50Speaker 3: A couple more fights first to talk about absolute bang
- 17:53Speaker 3: right here. Second most likely to finish on the card
- 17:56Speaker 3: at minus three point fifty Manuel Torres. Ignacio Baja Munde
- 18:00Speaker 3: is minus one thirty Torres plus one ten Baja Mundees
- 18:04Speaker 3: plus one ten twenty for Taurres inside the distance, bah
- 18:07Speaker 3: Mundez is plus one point fifty run one props in
- 18:11Speaker 3: this fight. Taurus plus two fifteen Baha Mundees plus four fifty.
- 18:16Speaker 1: I mean this is a banger. There's no doubt about that.
- 18:19Speaker 3: Check out this Baha Munde is huge for the vision
- 18:21Speaker 3: at one fifty five, stands six to three, well a
- 18:24Speaker 3: five inch height advantage, two inch reach advantage.
- 18:27Speaker 1: Look at the volume.
- 18:28Speaker 3: Both these guys throw eight point one four seven point
- 18:31Speaker 3: one five. You see takedown upside on the Torus side
- 18:34Speaker 3: as well. Fourteen wins or fifteen wins, fourteen by finish,
- 18:39Speaker 3: seven KO seven by submission. He's a aggressive. The last
- 18:43Speaker 3: ten fights Big Marley, all of them ended in the
- 18:45Speaker 3: first round. It's hard not to like this fight. It's
- 18:48Speaker 3: gonna get ownership, but the ownership has to be capped
- 18:51Speaker 3: because eighty two hundred and eight K five round fight
- 18:55Speaker 3: eighty three seventy nine, eighty five seventy seven, so it's
- 18:59Speaker 3: gonna get ownership, but it has to say somewhat in check.
- 19:03Speaker 3: I'll read off what we have it thirty eight Torres
- 19:05Speaker 3: and thirty five Baha Moon Days, still lower on than
- 19:08Speaker 3: the main events, but it's gonna get ownership. Makes a
- 19:11Speaker 3: lot of sense to me. I wouldn't even be surprised
- 19:13Speaker 3: if we saw Torres get a little more steam and
- 19:16Speaker 3: it's like forty Torres thirty Bajam Moon Days.
- 19:19Speaker 1: But at this ownership, I don't really have a strong lean.
- 19:22Speaker 3: If it was like forty thirty, I would say Baha mundays.
- 19:25Speaker 3: I do think Torres has more upside because I think
- 19:29Speaker 3: he can wrestle. I'll go throw it to you on
- 19:31Speaker 3: this one. Do you think he wrestles in this one?
- 19:33Speaker 3: It's by far the easiest path to victory if he
- 19:36Speaker 3: has success.
- 19:37Speaker 1: But I'm when his looks at decent takedown defense.
- 19:41Speaker 2: Yeah, I kind of hope he wrestles if he wins it.
- 19:45Speaker 2: With the wrestling or submission game plans, just probably a
- 19:50Speaker 2: less sweaty fight. If I'm on the tourist side, maybe
- 19:54Speaker 2: an easier path to victory too. But Torres is a
- 19:56Speaker 2: nasty striker too, and he's dangerous on the feet that
- 19:59Speaker 2: no a couple of fights ago. It is one of
- 20:01Speaker 2: my favorite elbows of all time. Uh, just disgusting. It
- 20:04Speaker 2: was like one of the ones where I was like,
- 20:05Speaker 2: oh my god, like I yelled out, yeah happened. So
- 20:09Speaker 2: I can't wait for this fight. I actually just changed
- 20:11Speaker 2: it to a five star. I didn't put it at
- 20:14Speaker 2: a five star at first because I just it's not
- 20:16Speaker 2: on the championship level fights level like those are the
- 20:19Speaker 2: clear five stars. We want to load up on those
- 20:22Speaker 2: two championship fights. But minus three point fifty to in
- 20:25Speaker 2: inside the distance, both guys have decent chances of finish
- 20:28Speaker 2: in I think it's definitely the clear third best fight
- 20:30Speaker 2: to target. So I moved it to a five star.
- 20:33Speaker 2: Uh literally as you were talking, so just now and
- 20:35Speaker 2: I saw you refreshed it. But yeah, I'm on the
- 20:38Speaker 2: tours side more so because he has more ways to win.
- 20:41Speaker 2: I think he could get a first round knockout score
- 20:44Speaker 2: one hundred plus. I think he could get a couple
- 20:46Speaker 2: of takedowns throughout the fight score over ten x in
- 20:50Speaker 2: a decision win. I think he's live for submission in
- 20:52Speaker 2: the round one, maybe round two as well. I just
- 20:56Speaker 2: don't know what he's gonna look like if the fight
- 20:57Speaker 2: goes late, and I would think that bottomona, this is
- 21:00Speaker 2: solid for three full rounds and if Torres can't get
- 21:03Speaker 2: takedowns and he wants them, that's probably bad for him.
- 21:06Speaker 2: I think Bajamonas would probably be lighting them up on
- 21:08Speaker 2: the feet, especially in the rounds two. In rounds three,
- 21:11Speaker 2: he could strike at a high pace. He's a dangerous
- 21:13Speaker 2: striker as well. He could knock out Torres in any round,
- 21:17Speaker 2: but I think he would be more likely second or
- 21:19Speaker 2: the third round if he does get it, and if
- 21:21Speaker 2: Torres starts to gas out, then he could really start
- 21:24Speaker 2: to put it on him and start racking up points.
- 21:26Speaker 2: So I do like both sides of this fight, but
- 21:28Speaker 2: Torres is my preferred play. I plan on being overweight
- 21:32Speaker 2: to Torres and then maybe I'll be a round field
- 21:35Speaker 2: weight on Bajamones. I definitely want to get some hedge
- 21:38Speaker 2: exposure on him too. The midrange is so important this week.
- 21:41Speaker 2: You just got to load up on that mid range.
- 21:43Speaker 2: I want all the combos I can get, uh, But
- 21:46Speaker 2: if I'm making one lineup, Torre is the one I'm
- 21:48Speaker 2: clicking on. And if I need two hundred bucks to
- 21:50Speaker 2: get up to like someone else that I really like,
- 21:52Speaker 2: then I'm fine going down to Bahomonas even in a
- 21:55Speaker 2: single entry type of thing. But I just don't think
- 21:58Speaker 2: I'm gonna have that problem on this card. So whereas
- 22:00Speaker 2: preferred play, I think he might get a finish in
- 22:02Speaker 2: the first round.
- 22:03Speaker 3: Yeah, I this is like for me, the game theory
- 22:06Speaker 3: thing in my head, which is how I try and play,
- 22:10Speaker 3: is Baja Mundez.
- 22:11Speaker 1: I think Torres gets steam.
- 22:12Speaker 3: I think people will see all the first round finishes,
- 22:16Speaker 3: how well he's done recently.
- 22:17Speaker 1: The game log people will hype him up.
- 22:19Speaker 3: He's a small favorite, only two hundred separate, and they
- 22:23Speaker 3: could get like forty one percent forty percent, and Bob
- 22:25Speaker 3: Munde is like twenty eight thirty And at that case,
- 22:28Speaker 3: especially on a ten fight card, I want to say
- 22:31Speaker 3: my preferred play is probably Baja Mundees. The reason I
- 22:34Speaker 3: hesitate on saying that is most tours wins. Feels like
- 22:37Speaker 3: he gets one hundred plus. I could see Bob Munde's
- 22:40Speaker 3: second round or third round finish even and getting like
- 22:43Speaker 3: eighty five or ninety if he takes an ass beating early,
- 22:46Speaker 3: taken down a little bit and fights back there. So
- 22:50Speaker 3: no strongly and on the preferred side, but I think
- 22:52Speaker 3: probably I'll side with Baja Mundes, who will.
- 22:55Speaker 1: Be lower on Let's talk to this one touchdown James Cook.
- 23:00Speaker 2: Yeah again, Yeah, like fifty yarder something like that.
- 23:05Speaker 3: Wow, well, I'm in first place. I have the nuts
- 23:09Speaker 3: right now, but it's in the three dollars, not the fifteen.
- 23:11Speaker 3: And I have twenty lineups in the three and sixty
- 23:14Speaker 3: six in the fifteen, so the.
- 23:15Speaker 2: Nuts is cool. I don't have them in Captain. I
- 23:17Speaker 2: only did two lineups again.
- 23:21Speaker 1: Three thousand bucks.
- 23:22Speaker 3: When you see other people winning twenty two oh Rios
- 23:25Speaker 3: in there, obviously it's way too early.
- 23:27Speaker 1: But Rios in this that makes me feel better, all right,
- 23:31Speaker 1: plenty of game left. James Cook is cooking there. He goes.
- 23:36Speaker 3: You have a three star instead of a two or
- 23:37Speaker 3: one on this one, So I'm curious if you're keeping
- 23:41Speaker 3: in the pool and how you're playing it every now
- 23:43Speaker 3: Donna Norma Dumont minus one thirteen al Donna minus one
- 23:47Speaker 3: oh seven Dumont plus three hundred for this fight to
- 23:50Speaker 3: finish plus four forty al Donna plus six hundred Dumont.
- 23:54Speaker 3: Most likely fight to go the distance on the card.
- 23:57Speaker 3: Closest line fight are you playing both. It looks striker
- 24:01Speaker 3: versus scrappler. As you see al Donna with the strike
- 24:04Speaker 3: significant strike five point two four Dumont one point nine
- 24:07Speaker 3: to one takedowns.
- 24:09Speaker 1: Is that why you're playing it? What's your plan?
- 24:11Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm playing. I feel like the field's gonna be
- 24:14Speaker 2: fairly low on it, and that that's what makes me
- 24:18Speaker 2: like it more. I think they're both pretty solid DraftKings scorers.
- 24:21Speaker 2: Al Donna almost always scores well when she wins. She's
- 24:24Speaker 2: the better striker here. She could fight at a high volume.
- 24:26Speaker 2: She could knock Dumont out. I think if al Donna
- 24:29Speaker 2: does win the fight, as long as she's not spending
- 24:32Speaker 2: like five minutes plus on her back, I think she's
- 24:35Speaker 2: good for ten x plus and I think she has
- 24:38Speaker 2: ninety five point upside too. Uh So, I definitely like
- 24:43Speaker 2: al Donna. I'm gonna I'm probably gonna be overweight to her.
- 24:48Speaker 2: She's the one I'm picking to win. But Dumont the
- 24:50Speaker 2: line is now, I think it's even last I looked, Yeah,
- 24:55Speaker 2: basically an even line. So she should get some more
- 24:57Speaker 2: ownership with that happening. And if she does win, I
- 25:01Speaker 2: would imagine that it comes with multiple takedowns throughout the fight,
- 25:05Speaker 2: probably seven plus minutes of top control, just that dump
- 25:09Speaker 2: truck laying on top and then landing some landing some
- 25:12Speaker 2: strikes from there, and I think she has a good
- 25:14Speaker 2: chance of scoring well also, so yeah, I'm gonna be
- 25:17Speaker 2: overweight maybe to both sides. Like this is my way
- 25:20Speaker 2: to get a little bit more different aside from Arici
- 25:23Speaker 2: Lang or whoever waregi. I'm mixing this fight in and
- 25:27Speaker 2: then I'll probably even my favorite al Donna lineup. I'll
- 25:30Speaker 2: just throw the same thing in and put Dumont in
- 25:32Speaker 2: there too, just hoping that both of them are somewhat
- 25:35Speaker 2: contrarian on a ten fight card. Yeah, I like both
- 25:38Speaker 2: sides of this fight. I'm closer to it like a
- 25:40Speaker 2: four star than I am a two, just compared to
- 25:43Speaker 2: the field. I think I think they both have ninety
- 25:46Speaker 2: plus point upside in this one. But give me out
- 25:48Speaker 2: Donna by TKO or taking two rounds on the cards.
- 25:54Speaker 1: This is where, yeah, you and I will be most different,
- 25:57Speaker 1: for sure. I have this fight as.
- 25:58Speaker 3: A fade, mainly because they inside that this is props
- 26:02Speaker 3: are awful, the fight's supposed to go to the distance,
- 26:04Speaker 3: but also because it's in the Tories, the Grasso Go
- 26:08Speaker 3: Mally Range. I like the Rodriguez O Day fight, Lopez Ortega.
- 26:12Speaker 3: Just so many good fights in that mid tier. I
- 26:15Speaker 3: need to fade something. This is the one I fall on.
- 26:17Speaker 3: But with all your talk and how you like it,
- 26:21Speaker 3: it will be pretty low owned. We have twenty two
- 26:23Speaker 3: percent al data, twenty nine percent Dumont I will in
- 26:27Speaker 3: twenty entry and greater. I will include them in my
- 26:30Speaker 3: pool now because can't can't fade everything, or can't fulfade people.
- 26:36Speaker 1: If you're playing a lot of teams, especially.
- 26:38Speaker 3: When someone like Big Marley likes them, you're only playing
- 26:40Speaker 3: a couple of teams.
- 26:41Speaker 1: I won't be playing them.
- 26:42Speaker 2: Actually, hot take DraftKings wise, I like this more than
- 26:45Speaker 2: Lopez Ortega.
- 26:47Speaker 1: There you go.
- 26:47Speaker 3: You heard it from Big Marley right there. I hope
- 26:50Speaker 3: you're wrong, but hey, it is what's going on, g Kier.
- 26:54Speaker 3: That's definitely a way to get different. Yep, Big Marley
- 26:57Speaker 3: likes it. Next fight, I like this one, Luis Rodriguez
- 26:59Speaker 3: Osborne minus one forty five Rodriguez plus one twenty five
- 27:04Speaker 3: is Oday minus one seventy for this fight to finish,
- 27:07Speaker 3: plus one fifty five inside the distance for Rodriguez plus
- 27:11Speaker 3: two to fifteen for O Day. So I'll just say
- 27:15Speaker 3: right up front, Rodriguez is one of my favorite plays
- 27:17Speaker 3: on the slate. He has to be see what we
- 27:21Speaker 3: got him at thirty one percent.
- 27:23Speaker 1: He has to be lower than Diego Lopez.
- 27:25Speaker 3: Lopez has better money line and inside the distance prop
- 27:28Speaker 3: He obviously has to be lower on the Sean O'Malley
- 27:31Speaker 3: in the main event, he's got to be lower on
- 27:33Speaker 3: than Grosso, lower on than Torres, Bomb Moon Days, Valentina
- 27:37Speaker 3: Morab That whole range is going to be higher on.
- 27:41Speaker 3: I think we get Rodriguez twenty six percent something like that.
- 27:46Speaker 3: His money line's bad, but I think he has wrestling
- 27:48Speaker 3: upside in this one. I think that's the easy path,
- 27:51Speaker 3: and then plus one fifty five inside the distance good.
- 27:54Speaker 3: I mean, this guy looks like he can take over
- 27:56Speaker 3: to his fights go on. So I like Rodriguez and
- 27:59Speaker 3: with all that in step two, Oday's gonna be played
- 28:02Speaker 3: some because plus one twenty five money line is good
- 28:05Speaker 3: for the for seventy six hundred, plus two to fifteen
- 28:09Speaker 3: in soudn distance is good for this. So I'll be
- 28:12Speaker 3: playing both some of both sides oday because of savings.
- 28:16Speaker 3: I don't mind taking a Rodriguez lineup, dropping him to oday.
- 28:20Speaker 3: That's a way to leave a thousand get different. But yeah,
- 28:23Speaker 3: I'm in on this fight.
- 28:23Speaker 1: What about you?
- 28:25Speaker 2: Yeah, I like this fight. Now, I'm agreed. I like
- 28:27Speaker 2: the Rodriguez side a little bit more. I'm shifting ownership
- 28:30Speaker 2: a little bit more right now as we speak. I
- 28:33Speaker 2: didn't even realize the lines tightened up that much since
- 28:36Speaker 2: I looked into it. I want to say Rodriguez was
- 28:38Speaker 2: like minus one seventy maybe even higher when I was
- 28:41Speaker 2: looking into this fight. Yeah, I think Rodriguez.
- 28:46Speaker 4: Minus open minus two seventy dropped right down to minus
- 28:49Speaker 4: one forty five, got to minus one seventy range two
- 28:53Speaker 4: weeks ago, even four days ago is minus one seventy
- 28:57Speaker 4: buy back quick on oday minus one twenty five was
- 29:00Speaker 4: Rodriguez minus one twenty five.
- 29:02Speaker 3: Has got some buyback, some more buy on Rodriguez. So
- 29:05Speaker 3: minus one twenty five and minus one forty five.
- 29:08Speaker 2: Wow. But yeah, I like Rodriguez. I've liked him since
- 29:13Speaker 2: his Contender Series fight. I thought he won that fight,
- 29:18Speaker 2: and he's pretty good everywhere. He's a pretty solid striker,
- 29:20Speaker 2: he's aggressive on the feet. I think he's probably a
- 29:22Speaker 2: little bit more alive for a TKO, I trust him
- 29:25Speaker 2: a little bit more for takedowns. Both guys are are
- 29:28Speaker 2: decent submission artists, but I just think maybe it's like
- 29:31Speaker 2: Guilletine or Bust submission wise for Odei Osborne. I just
- 29:35Speaker 2: don't see triangles really working at this point for him.
- 29:38Speaker 2: But I think Rodriguez could get us up from the top.
- 29:41Speaker 2: I just think he's more likely to get takedowns, just
- 29:43Speaker 2: a more well rounded fighter, less flaky, probably higher volume,
- 29:50Speaker 2: especially through three rounds. So yeah, I prefer Rodriguez too,
- 29:53Speaker 2: And if if he is going to be lower on
- 29:56Speaker 2: then that makes me like him just that much more.
- 29:58Speaker 2: So Yeah, give me Rodriguez in this fight. I think
- 30:00Speaker 2: he could finish by any method. I think he could
- 30:03Speaker 2: win all three rounds and score decent as well. And
- 30:07Speaker 2: then with the line tightening up and then Oday's ownership raising,
- 30:12Speaker 2: it makes me like him a little bit less. So
- 30:14Speaker 2: I might go underweight to Oday, overweight to Rodriguez. Give me.
- 30:19Speaker 2: I picked Rodriguez by by decision, but man, I'm kind
- 30:23Speaker 2: of thinking he might get a finish at some point,
- 30:25Speaker 2: so I don't know. I'm torn on this one. I
- 30:26Speaker 2: think he could win by any method.
- 30:28Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he can too.
- 30:30Speaker 3: I like him by sub I think is interesting plus
- 30:35Speaker 3: three hundred myself, plus four to fifty by Kotko plus
- 30:38Speaker 3: three fifty by decision. So shows any method definitely in play,
- 30:42Speaker 3: and I think there is some wrestling upside and in
- 30:44Speaker 3: the range where he has to be not low owned.
- 30:47Speaker 3: There's gonna be very few low on plays. Arici long
- 30:50Speaker 3: and Katlns, who's a really big dogs. Otherwise everyone will
- 30:53Speaker 3: be in the teams or higher, but low compared to
- 30:57Speaker 3: the field. Four fights left. I'm excited for this one.
- 31:00Speaker 3: You have it a two star and I'm real life excited.
- 31:03Speaker 3: But I totally see it for DFS. But let's talk
- 31:07Speaker 3: about this one. Daniel zel Huber Esteban Rima Vicks minus
- 31:11Speaker 3: two twenties al Huber plus one to eighty five Riba
- 31:14Speaker 3: Vis plus two hundred inside the distance for zel Huber,
- 31:17Speaker 3: plus five twenty five for Riva Vix. As you can
- 31:20Speaker 3: see zeal Huber very big for the division six to one.
- 31:24Speaker 3: We have a three inch reach advantage and an eight
- 31:26Speaker 3: inch or a three inch hine advantage excuse me, and
- 31:29Speaker 3: an eight inch reach advantage. You see, both guys do
- 31:32Speaker 3: throw good volume six point two five point eight six
- 31:35Speaker 3: for zell Huber. Neither guy it shoots many takedowns. Were
- 31:40Speaker 3: you a little surprised with this line? Zalhuber looked great,
- 31:43Speaker 3: He's still young and getting better. But Ribo Vick's a
- 31:46Speaker 3: very talented striker. When he loses or when he's not dominant,
- 31:51Speaker 3: is when he's getting taken down Kamala Kirk in the
- 31:53Speaker 3: first round rad as he bob in his debut. What
- 31:56Speaker 3: he did to McKinney was absolutely nasty, fast hands. I
- 32:01Speaker 3: was surprised to see this line at plus one to
- 32:03Speaker 3: forty inside the distance, to be honest, and it's not moving,
- 32:07Speaker 3: so if it goes decision like expected, it probably busts.
- 32:11Speaker 3: But I do think there's a path to both guys
- 32:13Speaker 3: getting a knockout because I could see this being a
- 32:15Speaker 3: barn burner in real life.
- 32:18Speaker 1: So yeah, what do you think?
- 32:20Speaker 2: Yeah? I think the line's too high. I mean maybe
- 32:23Speaker 2: even ten percent too high on the xel Huber side
- 32:25Speaker 2: in my opinion. But I just don't like that nine
- 32:29Speaker 2: K price tag for zel Huber. He is a high
- 32:31Speaker 2: volume striker, but that's not going to cut it in
- 32:34Speaker 2: my opinion unless he gets a TKO at some point,
- 32:36Speaker 2: even at nine K, if he's striking at like six
- 32:41Speaker 2: strikes per minute, I just don't see him paying that off,
- 32:43Speaker 2: especially when we got people who are cheaper than him,
- 32:46Speaker 2: like these championship fights, who probably are going to score more.
- 32:50Speaker 2: He's going to be a fad for me. At nine K.
- 32:52Speaker 2: I just don't love it. Maybe he gets the TKO
- 32:54Speaker 2: and it burns me for that reason, But Ribavick is
- 32:57Speaker 2: going to be my preferred play because I think he
- 32:58Speaker 2: could break the slate at seven two hundred, where I
- 33:01Speaker 2: just don't see this fight happening, zel Huber winning and
- 33:04Speaker 2: being like, oh my night's over. A zel Huber just
- 33:06Speaker 2: scored one hundred and twenty five points. I just don't
- 33:09Speaker 2: think that's gonna happen. I think it's more likely that
- 33:10Speaker 2: Rubevics scores ninety plus and then it becomes a no Ribovis,
- 33:15Speaker 2: no no cash type of thing. Maybe yeah, I think
- 33:18Speaker 2: it could be a barnburd or fun fight to watch.
- 33:21Speaker 2: It's just the nine K price tag takes me off.
- 33:23Speaker 2: A zel Huber, I think he is the better overall striker.
- 33:25Speaker 2: I picked him to get the win, but I'm just
- 33:28Speaker 2: not gonna be playing them. I'm not gonna have one
- 33:30Speaker 2: hundred and fifty lineups either. If I was, I'd probably
- 33:32Speaker 2: sprinkle him in a little bit. But ryboviks the seventy
- 33:36Speaker 2: two hundred, He's kind of like my chyras to me.
- 33:39Speaker 2: I'm gonna be sprinkling them both in. They're my favorite
- 33:41Speaker 2: punts on the board. Like I'm picking or Tega to win,
- 33:45Speaker 2: I'm picking both those guys that I mentioned to lose.
- 33:47Speaker 2: I'm picking Ortega to win, but I think Ortega is
- 33:49Speaker 2: gonna be owned where I just don't think those two
- 33:51Speaker 2: are gonna have that much ownership. And that's what makes
- 33:54Speaker 2: me like him on a ten fight card. So yeah,
- 33:56Speaker 2: I'm hoping I'm wrong winner wise, but give me Rubovics
- 33:59Speaker 2: as my preferred play. But zel huber Is might pick
- 34:02Speaker 2: to win like twenty nine twenty eight.
- 34:04Speaker 1: Yeah, I like it.
- 34:04Speaker 3: I'm in agreement with pretty much all of it. Ribevic's
- 34:07Speaker 3: my preferred play too. I think the lines wide. What
- 34:10Speaker 3: I will say about Zaluber though, we have them the
- 34:12Speaker 3: lowest owned in the upper tier, So anytime I see
- 34:14Speaker 3: that for a volume striker and plus two hundred inside
- 34:17Speaker 3: the distance, this get's talented. Still twenty five let the
- 34:20Speaker 3: crowd behind them. I think it could be a war.
- 34:24Speaker 3: I will use zel Huber and chalk you your lineups.
- 34:26Speaker 3: If I'm playing both the main events, the Torus fight,
- 34:29Speaker 3: et cetera, that's when I'll be using xell Huber.
- 34:32Speaker 1: Three fights left. You mentioned you like Ortega. This was
- 34:35Speaker 1: booked once, now booked again.
- 34:37Speaker 3: Diego Lopez Brian Ortega minus two hundred money has been
- 34:41Speaker 3: coming in at Lopez the past couple of days, plus
- 34:44Speaker 3: one seven the end of the way back for Ortega,
- 34:47Speaker 3: plus one fifty inside the distance of Lopez, plus.
- 34:50Speaker 1: Three fifty four Ortega.
- 34:52Speaker 3: So this is kind of what we're saying, like xal
- 34:53Speaker 3: Huber nine k wors inside the distance prop eighty nine
- 34:56Speaker 3: hundred ban wors inside the distance prop, then Lopez eight,
- 35:00Speaker 3: Rodriguez at eighty six, Sean at eighty five.
- 35:03Speaker 1: So it's easy to save money. This is the mid
- 35:07Speaker 1: tier is.
- 35:07Speaker 3: So good, but those guys will be a little lower
- 35:10Speaker 3: owned the van zelth Hubers of the world, which makes
- 35:13Speaker 3: them in play.
- 35:14Speaker 1: Talk about why you like Ortega. Do you think he
- 35:16Speaker 1: can outgrapple Lopez? Do you think he control him?
- 35:19Speaker 3: Do you see this fight playing majority or more so
- 35:23Speaker 3: on the mat than the feat do you think it
- 35:25Speaker 3: goes to decision? And if busts all together, how do
- 35:27Speaker 3: you see this three star fight you have.
- 35:30Speaker 2: I mean, I hope we get a grappling match between
- 35:33Speaker 2: these two. I think that would be awesome to see
- 35:35Speaker 2: and I think that would lead to a higher score
- 35:37Speaker 2: on either side as well. But I think it's probably
- 35:40Speaker 2: more so taking place on the feet, which is not
- 35:43Speaker 2: great for DraftKings, and I just see or Lopez being
- 35:47Speaker 2: more dangerous early having the higher ceiling on DraftKings for
- 35:50Speaker 2: that reason, whether it be a first round knockout or
- 35:52Speaker 2: a first round submission. But I like Ortega in round three,
- 35:57Speaker 2: whether it be a knockout or a submission, and I
- 36:00Speaker 2: think it comes down to round two. Whoever wins that
- 36:02Speaker 2: one gets it done. If it's close, I think judges
- 36:06Speaker 2: are gonna slide with Ortega with the crowd cheering him
- 36:09Speaker 2: on and this crazy sphere, I think the line should
- 36:12Speaker 2: be just a little bit closer to pick them. So
- 36:14Speaker 2: I'm just the same thing I was the first time
- 36:16Speaker 2: they fought. I was on Ortega then, but I'm just
- 36:18Speaker 2: not heavy on the fight because I think the field
- 36:21Speaker 2: will be and that's what kind of takes me off
- 36:24Speaker 2: especially if this is going to be a striking match
- 36:26Speaker 2: that is going to be on the feet for ten
- 36:28Speaker 2: plus minutes in a decision. I don't think either one
- 36:31Speaker 2: of them has a great chance at the optimal lineup
- 36:33Speaker 2: in that case. So I'll be underweight to Lopez. I
- 36:38Speaker 2: don't know, maybe a round field Wight, possibly overweight on Ortega.
- 36:41Speaker 2: But I'm just trying to get away from this and
- 36:44Speaker 2: maybe get on that Dumont Aldona fight to get different
- 36:47Speaker 2: that way, because I'm not fading the championship fights. I
- 36:49Speaker 2: want to be close to all in on those two.
- 36:53Speaker 1: That makes sense. I got Lopez by Ko.
- 36:56Speaker 3: The dude hits hard man, sneaky hard dandy ge has
- 36:58Speaker 3: got a hell of a chin, but he cracked him
- 37:00Speaker 3: a couple of times. I think he puts Ortega away
- 37:03Speaker 3: at some point. Who's accumulated so much damnag throughout his career.
- 37:07Speaker 3: The line the first time is like minus one fifty
- 37:10Speaker 3: minus two hundred now, which is interesting.
- 37:12Speaker 1: A lot of steam that.
- 37:12Speaker 3: On Lopez Lopez Ko Lopez has.
- 37:16Speaker 1: Got a good amount throughout the week, So I'm right
- 37:18Speaker 1: in that side.
- 37:18Speaker 3: But you can definitely to get different in flake shift stuff,
- 37:21Speaker 3: build a Lopez lineup, take him out, go or Tega
- 37:25Speaker 3: twelve hundred dollars savings. That's how you unique ship or
- 37:29Speaker 3: Tega has a similar ceiling as Lopez in wins, so
- 37:33Speaker 3: I don't think that's crazy. One fit title fight time
- 37:36Speaker 3: Baby trilogy, not a fight. I'm really excited for her,
- 37:40Speaker 3: to be honest, but it's very good at wrinkle and
- 37:42Speaker 3: DFS a much needed wrinkle for only a ten fight card.
- 37:46Speaker 3: Alexa Grasso, Valentina, Chefchenko minus one thirty nine Grosso plus
- 37:52Speaker 3: one nineteen chef Chenko plus one fifty five for this
- 37:55Speaker 3: fight to finish, Grasso plus two forty inside the distance,
- 37:59Speaker 3: Valentine plus four sixty five. So the first fight I
- 38:04Speaker 3: was there the John Jones card in Vegas, Valentina winning
- 38:09Speaker 3: three rounds.
- 38:09Speaker 1: I thought she was up three rounds.
- 38:11Speaker 3: Fourth round, she gets her back taken, she makes one mistake,
- 38:14Speaker 3: Grosso submits her. Ninety one DK points for Grosso in
- 38:18Speaker 3: that fight, Valentina had.
- 38:23Speaker 1: Hold on hold on.
- 38:25Speaker 3: Valentina had eighty one in that fight, So if the
- 38:29Speaker 3: fight was gonna keep going, probably it was gonna be
- 38:31Speaker 3: a Valentina decision win.
- 38:32Speaker 1: Probably would have scored one hundred and thirty points. If
- 38:35Speaker 1: this fight scores ninety one.
- 38:36Speaker 3: You tell me that I will probably had zero percent
- 38:39Speaker 3: because of the ownership. The second fight, it was a
- 38:43Speaker 3: split draw, very close fight. I thought forty eight to
- 38:46Speaker 3: forty seven. Either side could have been fined one judge
- 38:49Speaker 3: an awful ten eight That changed it. Grosso or grosso
- 38:54Speaker 3: ninety four Valentina ninety one. You had thirty points to
- 38:57Speaker 3: both of them. You are getting a lot of points
- 39:00Speaker 3: one twenty four one one? Do you like this fight
- 39:04Speaker 3: more than Morob sean if you had to pick, Are
- 39:07Speaker 3: you gonna have lineups where you fade at both? I'm
- 39:10Speaker 3: not really gonna Are you gonna have lineups where you
- 39:12Speaker 3: fade one of them? Though?
- 39:13Speaker 1: How are you approaching this fight and talk about that?
- 39:22Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm kind of looking at them as
- 39:25Speaker 2: similar type of fights where the favorite. If the favorite
- 39:29Speaker 2: wins on either side, that's the path to the win
- 39:33Speaker 2: or not being on the optimal lineup. But if chef
- 39:36Speaker 2: Chenko and or Morob win, I think they're probably locks
- 39:41Speaker 2: for the optimal lineup.
- 39:42Speaker 3: Don't Valentina can get a close striking decision and not
- 39:46Speaker 3: get there that way. You think it'll come through the
- 39:48Speaker 3: ground if if she wins.
- 39:50Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so. I mean maybe a mixture of both,
- 39:53Speaker 2: but I do think she'll be getting like at least
- 39:55Speaker 2: three takedowns along the way if she wins. So they
- 39:57Speaker 2: have the highest ceilings on the card in my opinion,
- 40:00Speaker 2: and I like them both, but I just want to
- 40:04Speaker 2: I think I'm just gonna be one hundred percent on
- 40:06Speaker 2: both of the fights and just try and get all
- 40:08Speaker 2: combinations I can. Like I want Morob Chefchenko paired up
- 40:14Speaker 2: with a what's his name Rosauce, I want an O'Malley
- 40:17Speaker 2: Grasso paired up with a Roast. I'm just get all
- 40:19Speaker 2: the combos, and then once I get those combos, maybe
- 40:21Speaker 2: I'll start to go with like an O'Malley Grasso, Ricci Lang.
- 40:25Speaker 2: I don't know. I just want to load up on
- 40:27Speaker 2: those four people. But I'm picking chef Chenko to win.
- 40:33Speaker 2: It's really a toss up in my opinion, like a
- 40:35Speaker 2: coin flip. But I picked chef Chenko to win in
- 40:39Speaker 2: the first two fights, so it's like, let me just
- 40:41Speaker 2: go back to the well. Actually, the last time I won,
- 40:45Speaker 2: it was the Grasso chef Chenko fight, and if they
- 40:47Speaker 2: gave it to chef Chenko, I would I wouldn't have won,
- 40:50Speaker 2: so it was like it was like the one time
- 40:54Speaker 2: I was thinking judges afterwards. But yeah, that was an
- 40:59Speaker 2: awesome fight. It would have scored great for either winner.
- 41:02Speaker 2: I mean, you could have stacked it in a draw,
- 41:04Speaker 2: that's how good it was. So I'm gonna go back
- 41:07Speaker 2: to Chefchenko just because she has the higher ceiling. She
- 41:10Speaker 2: is the underdog, and if Grasso wins the fight, I
- 41:13Speaker 2: think that she could not be on the optimal lineup
- 41:15Speaker 2: where I just don't see that happening for Chefchenko. So
- 41:18Speaker 2: she's gonna be my preferred play. But I'll probably have
- 41:20Speaker 2: like sixty sixty five something like that on chef Chenko
- 41:26Speaker 2: and then thirty five forty on Grasso's kind of how
- 41:30Speaker 2: I'm seeing it in my head right now. I'll be
- 41:33Speaker 2: loading up just because it's right there in the mid range.
- 41:35Speaker 2: If it was a little bit wider, if it was
- 41:37Speaker 2: like eighty seven hundred for Grasso, I'd probably be like
- 41:40Speaker 2: twenty percent or something like that on her and just
- 41:42Speaker 2: really load up on chef Chenko. But at eighty three hundred,
- 41:46Speaker 2: I think even a Grasso wins, she's got a good
- 41:47Speaker 2: shot of being on the optole.
- 41:49Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't have a strong lead on the side
- 41:52Speaker 3: like I pick in Grosso because of this age right here,
- 41:55Speaker 3: I think every fight Valentina work looks a little worse.
- 41:58Speaker 3: I think Grosso's in her price right now. But because
- 42:01Speaker 3: of those four hundred savings right here, No, strongly a
- 42:05Speaker 3: lot easier to save four hundred get different in lineups
- 42:08Speaker 3: like that, and you're not giving up pretty much anything
- 42:11Speaker 3: before we get to the main event. Great question here
- 42:14Speaker 3: because I never do it, but I don't think it's
- 42:17Speaker 3: the craziest thing.
- 42:18Speaker 1: I still think there's enough live dogs in a great
- 42:21Speaker 1: mid tier r.
- 42:22Speaker 3: I doubt I get there, But if I'm playing three
- 42:24Speaker 3: hundred lineups, maybe i'd have some any thoughts.
- 42:28Speaker 1: And if so, is it this fight or is it
- 42:30Speaker 1: the Morob fight?
- 42:31Speaker 2: I think it's this one, But I don't know how
- 42:34Speaker 2: many lineups it would take for me to stack it.
- 42:36Speaker 2: If I'm building twenty by hand, I highly doubt I'm
- 42:41Speaker 2: stacking it at all. I'd probably need to get closer
- 42:44Speaker 2: to fifty before I look at that. But if I
- 42:47Speaker 2: was making one hundred and fifty lineups, I want to
- 42:48Speaker 2: stacked a couple times.
- 42:50Speaker 1: Okay, there you go. Last fight on the card.
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- 43:53Speaker 1: Main eventime.
- 43:54Speaker 3: This one should be fun Baby Sean O'Malley, Morob Davoloshpheeley
- 43:58Speaker 3: minus one thirty two Sugar plus one twelve is Morob
- 44:02Speaker 3: minus one twenty for this fight to finish. All the
- 44:05Speaker 3: finishing equity on the Shan side plus one fifteen Morob
- 44:09Speaker 3: plus six fifteen, so Mirob opened the favorite minus one forty.
- 44:14Speaker 3: Then slowly but surely Sean was getting money and then boom,
- 44:18Speaker 3: a big spike from a minus one ten favorite to
- 44:22Speaker 3: for Morob to pretty much plus one ten. Staph infection
- 44:26Speaker 3: rumor and cut above his eye. Two things that impact
- 44:31Speaker 3: of the line, no doubt about that. How do you
- 44:33Speaker 3: view that? Yeah, I'll let you talk about how do
- 44:36Speaker 3: you view that? How are you gonna be on this fight?
- 44:39Speaker 3: Obviously Morob is the DFS DraftKings goat because he will
- 44:43Speaker 3: shoot fifty takedowns if need be. But man to Sean
- 44:46Speaker 3: do the same thing he did against his buddy, too
- 44:48Speaker 3: sharp two slick, too fast and find the chin and
- 44:51Speaker 3: hurt him.
- 44:54Speaker 2: Yeah. Man, I like the last two months, I thought
- 44:59Speaker 2: I was gonna pick Mirab in this fight, and then
- 45:03Speaker 2: the cut happened. That's not great. I mean, especially if
- 45:05Speaker 2: O'Malley's picking you apart. Maybe that cut opens up, gets
- 45:08Speaker 2: wider and wider, gets stopped. But it's really that staff
- 45:12Speaker 2: that changed my mind. Like if Morob has staff, just
- 45:18Speaker 2: the antibiotics, like being on staff, it takes away from
- 45:21Speaker 2: your cardio, and Morob has to wrestle in this fight,
- 45:24Speaker 2: like Morob can win striking matches just because he's so active.
- 45:28Speaker 2: But I just I don't think he can win an
- 45:30Speaker 2: active striking match against Shan O'Malley. Schano Maalley's just too good,
- 45:33Speaker 2: too slick, too dangerous. So if his cardio is gonna
- 45:37Speaker 2: be hindered at all, which is really hard to even
- 45:40Speaker 2: imagine that Morob would have somewhat shady cardio, But if
- 45:44Speaker 2: he does have staff, then I think it's a possibility.
- 45:46Speaker 2: If he goes out there and shoots for twenty takedowns
- 45:49Speaker 2: in the first three rounds, I think he's gonna be
- 45:52Speaker 2: really slowing down in the fourth and the fifth, and
- 45:54Speaker 2: O'Malley probably won't be. O'Malley will be sharp even in
- 45:57Speaker 2: the fourth and the fifth. He can throw high volume.
- 46:00Speaker 2: He's live to get a knockout in any round. So
- 46:03Speaker 2: I picked O'Malley by knockout. I changed my mind the
- 46:06Speaker 2: last like four days when I was really thinking I
- 46:10Speaker 2: was gonna bet Morob in this fight, Like I was like, like,
- 46:13Speaker 2: give me all the mirab but man, that staff must
- 46:16Speaker 2: have really got to me. I guess I switch my pick.
- 46:19Speaker 2: But it's the same thing as the last fight, Like
- 46:21Speaker 2: O'Malley could win this fight and not be on the
- 46:23Speaker 2: optimal lineup, especially if Morob shoots for twenty takedowns in
- 46:27Speaker 2: the first three rounds, lands like five of them, spends
- 46:32Speaker 2: eight minutes in top control, and then O'Malley wins in
- 46:35Speaker 2: the fourth or the fifth, then he's probably not on
- 46:37Speaker 2: the optimal lineup, but he could get a first round
- 46:41Speaker 2: knockout be on the optimal lineup, second round knockout be
- 46:44Speaker 2: on the optimal lineup. Whereas if Morob wins, he's on
- 46:48Speaker 2: the optimal lineup, he's probably outscoring everybody on the card.
- 46:51Speaker 2: He averages one hundred and twenty four DraftKings points in
- 46:54Speaker 2: his wins. He's got a loss where he scored ninety
- 46:57Speaker 2: nine points. Like he's a He's a beast, especially on DraftKings.
- 47:01Speaker 2: So if I end up with more Morab lineups than
- 47:04Speaker 2: O'Malley lineups, then I'm fine with that. But I think
- 47:08Speaker 2: that the field is going to be higher on Morob.
- 47:12Speaker 2: So O'Malley's just another way that. I mean, it's not
- 47:14Speaker 2: that different because he's still gonna be chalk, but it's
- 47:17Speaker 2: just a little bit different in my opinion. So instead
- 47:20Speaker 2: of loading up on Morob, Chefchenko, like I really want to,
- 47:23Speaker 2: Like I definitely would have if this fight was like
- 47:25Speaker 2: two weeks ago. I think I'm gonna be a little
- 47:27Speaker 2: bit higher on O'Malley in Chefchenko lineups instead. So give
- 47:31Speaker 2: me O'Malley by knockout, maybe the second, third round, something
- 47:34Speaker 2: like that. But I just want every lineup by I handbuilt.
- 47:39Speaker 2: Is gonna have both championship fights.
- 47:42Speaker 3: Yeah, that makes sense by far the clear best fights
- 47:45Speaker 3: because I'm not planning to reach you long in twenty
- 47:47Speaker 3: or less the Dumont fight in twenty or less.
- 47:50Speaker 1: Maybe I have just one of them.
- 47:51Speaker 3: I can see an O'Malley when not getting there at
- 47:53Speaker 3: Grosso when not getting there if Valentino wins a close
- 47:57Speaker 3: Reiching match, probably not the most likely.
- 48:00Speaker 1: I don't know.
- 48:01Speaker 3: I think I could see that possibly not getting there
- 48:03Speaker 3: as well. But the Grosso O'Malley side, I was with
- 48:07Speaker 3: you though I thought I was gonna be on morobbed
- 48:09Speaker 3: for like a year now, Like whenever they match up,
- 48:11Speaker 3: I'm all in morob and everyone keeps talking O'Malley. Maybe
- 48:16Speaker 3: that plays a little bit. He has locked the fucking
- 48:18Speaker 3: in this one. Rob's got everything going against him, like
- 48:21Speaker 3: you're talking about, and Sean showed he could do it
- 48:24Speaker 3: against a wrestler a way better, a better. I'd scare
- 48:28Speaker 3: your matchup because I think O'Malley can get up is
- 48:31Speaker 3: the thing, and like get back at distance, whereas I
- 48:34Speaker 3: wasn't sure he was able to get up from al
- 48:36Speaker 3: Joe with the dominant back controller control time.
- 48:40Speaker 1: Can he get to space? I guess is the better question.
- 48:43Speaker 3: I think with everyone talking O'Malley, the ownership should be
- 48:48Speaker 3: pretty similar.
- 48:49Speaker 1: Morob just his upside.
- 48:51Speaker 3: He just the DFS got the DraftKings go, so I'll
- 48:54Speaker 3: probably have more of him because like ninety nine percent
- 48:57Speaker 3: of wins are optimal in his sake, whereas for O'Malley,
- 49:00Speaker 3: maybe eighty five whatever the number is, but there is
- 49:04Speaker 3: pass where it's not. So I think my lean and
- 49:07Speaker 3: because of the savings it makes it easier. Is Morob
- 49:10Speaker 3: no strong lean, though I will definitely be playing both
- 49:14Speaker 3: five round fights awesome stop Big Marley fifty minutes talking
- 49:19Speaker 3: ten fights. Cannot wait to see what the UFC does
- 49:23Speaker 3: with the sphere with the entertainment seven thirty Eastern watch
- 49:27Speaker 3: fights at night, wake up early alarm nine to forty
- 49:30Speaker 3: five am Eastern for the Sunday Morning Show right into
- 49:34Speaker 3: Free Money Sunday and good luck tonight.
- 49:37Speaker 1: I hope you had some James Cook and you can
- 49:38Speaker 1: shift something. What's your final words for the people?
- 49:41Speaker 2: Thanks, Minya. I'm gonna need some more kickers, you know,
- 49:42Speaker 2: that's my new game plans run up on those double kickers.
- 49:45Speaker 2: But yeah, I'm looking forward to this one, just the
- 49:48Speaker 2: whole sphere, atmosphere, looking forward to seeing what they do.
- 49:52Speaker 2: I'll probably be a little bit lighter volume on DraftKings
- 49:55Speaker 2: just because it's ten fights, brought throwing a handful of builds,
- 49:59Speaker 2: just to try and get all the combinations that I
- 50:01Speaker 2: can get with those two championship fights and hopefully have
- 50:04Speaker 2: a chance going into the late rounds. Probably split it
- 50:07Speaker 2: with you and everybody listening, but hopefully it's a fun one.
- 50:11Speaker 2: Hopefully we win some money. Good luck to you title,
- 50:14Speaker 2: good luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it.
- 50:16Speaker 1: Let's ship it is right, good luck everybody.
- 50:19Speaker 3: Enjoy your weekend, enjoy some fights, enjoy some football, Let's
- 50:22Speaker 3: win some money for Big Marley on title talent.
- 50:25Speaker 1: Enjoy your night. Any then set them any d