Latest / What the Flux / In Conversation with Chris Judd - Why being disagreeable might just make you a better investor
Transcript
- 0:05Speaker 1: This is what the plus i'mv and It's Friday, the
- 0:08Speaker 1: thirty first of October. Today will be the first episode
- 0:10Speaker 1: in the two part interview with Chris Judd, two time
- 0:13Speaker 1: AFL Brownlow medallist, Premiership captain and founder of Serate Macro Funds.
- 0:17Speaker 1: In part one, Brett and Justin will be talking to
- 0:19Speaker 1: Chris about his football career, his transition into investing and
- 0:22Speaker 1: why he started his own investment fund. But before that,
- 0:24Speaker 1: here are the top three business news stories from Australia
- 0:26Speaker 1: and around the world. NAB has promised to increase its
- 0:29Speaker 1: lending to Australian real estate developers by twenty percent and
- 0:32Speaker 1: has also set aside thirty billion dollars for first home
- 0:35Speaker 1: buyer loans. In other news, Australia's quarterly September inflation has
- 0:38Speaker 1: jumped to three point two percent compared to the last
- 0:41Speaker 1: quarter when it was just two point one percent. This
- 0:43Speaker 1: means inflation is now outside the Reserve Bank of Australia's
- 0:46Speaker 1: ideal range of two to three percent. This Tuesday, the
- 0:49Speaker 1: RBA will be making a call on whether to pause,
- 0:51Speaker 1: cut or increase the cash rate. And finally, in Vidia
- 0:54Speaker 1: has made history as the first company to reach a
- 0:56Speaker 1: market valuation of five trillion US dollars. That's it from
- 0:59Speaker 1: me today. I'll posit over to brand Justin for their
- 1:01Speaker 1: insightful conversation with.
- 1:02Speaker 2: Chris Judd today on what the Flux In conversation, we're
- 1:06Speaker 2: excited to welcome Chris Chart and name that many of
- 1:08Speaker 2: our listeners would instantly associate with greatness on the footy field,
- 1:11Speaker 2: but he's also had a second act in investing. So
- 1:14Speaker 2: Chris played fourteen seasons in the AFL, first with West
- 1:16Speaker 2: Coast then Carlton, and over that time he became one
- 1:19Speaker 2: of the game's most decorated players, captain of both clubs,
- 1:22Speaker 2: two Brownlow medals, as well as leading West Coast to
- 1:24Speaker 2: a premiership in two thousand and six. But what many
- 1:27Speaker 2: might not know fully is how serious he's become in
- 1:29Speaker 2: the world of investing. Chris founded Serity Macro fund, operating
- 1:32Speaker 2: in the macro equity space, and in today's conversation, we're
- 1:35Speaker 2: going to unpack how lessons from elite sport translate to markets,
- 1:38Speaker 2: how he evaluates investments, and the challenges that he's faced
- 1:42Speaker 2: from being a public figure to a fund manager, and
- 1:44Speaker 2: maybe even where Chris is placing his bets today, So
- 1:46Speaker 2: welcome to What the Flux Juddy.
- 1:48Speaker 3: Thank you Justin and Brenton.
- 1:49Speaker 4: Congratulations on the pronunciation of sarity.
- 1:52Speaker 2: We have to listen to a few we did our research.
- 1:55Speaker 2: Have you had that challenge.
- 1:56Speaker 3: Often, sir Ruti or cherity?
- 1:58Speaker 2: Just think of that before you made the name.
- 2:00Speaker 3: No, I didn't have.
- 2:02Speaker 5: It's a bit of a lesson for all of us.
- 2:04Speaker 3: Cool.
- 2:04Speaker 5: So you achieved so much in your football career. How
- 2:07Speaker 5: often do you actually reflect on those achievements or is
- 2:10Speaker 5: it just a chapter of your life that you've now
- 2:11Speaker 5: completely moved on from.
- 2:13Speaker 4: Just feels a chapter that's completely closed, which I'm happy about. Yeah,
- 2:17Speaker 4: I sort of have no interest in sort of spending
- 2:19Speaker 4: all my forties, fifties and sixties talking or thinking about
- 2:21Speaker 4: things I did in my late teens and twenties.
- 2:24Speaker 3: So I'm excited that I've got.
- 2:25Speaker 4: A young family and a small business and lots of
- 2:28Speaker 4: things to keep the head occupied.
- 2:30Speaker 3: Yeah, it's nice for it. It sort of feels like
- 2:32Speaker 3: primary school. You know.
- 2:33Speaker 4: I had a great time in primary school grade two.
- 2:35Speaker 4: I was the quickest kid in the year. I had
- 2:38Speaker 4: a full head of hair, I had a girlfriend. I'm
- 2:40Speaker 4: sure if we actually spoke. I remember beating grade fours
- 2:44Speaker 4: and running races. You know, there was peak cycle in
- 2:46Speaker 4: grade two, but it was great. That's gone, you know,
- 2:48Speaker 4: I don't think about that anymore. And footy was a
- 2:51Speaker 4: bit the same at a great time. Had a very
- 2:53Speaker 4: fortunate career, but it was it was a long time ago,
- 2:55Speaker 4: and really excited that there's other things occupying my time now.
- 2:58Speaker 2: So we're going to stay on top of footage a
- 3:00Speaker 2: little fine. When you ran out on the field ninety
- 3:02Speaker 2: thousand people, one hundred thousand people, what was that mental
- 3:05Speaker 2: process like like going out hearing the raw in a
- 3:07Speaker 2: big game of footage?
- 3:08Speaker 3: Oh, it was magical. You know.
- 3:10Speaker 4: All I ever wanted to do from the age of
- 3:12Speaker 4: about three till becoming an autut was player fell footing
- 3:15Speaker 4: and to be out there on the big stage in
- 3:18Speaker 4: front of fans and with teammates who you love was magical.
- 3:22Speaker 4: So yeah, I mean I always had a spoken about
- 3:24Speaker 4: a bit before a different mindset mentally lean into games
- 3:28Speaker 4: like I was very much driven by negative thoughts. So
- 3:32Speaker 4: you know, any sort of performance psychologists or people telling
- 3:36Speaker 4: young kids how they should visualize performance should think positively
- 3:39Speaker 4: about what's coming, you know, during the season from sort
- 3:42Speaker 4: of Wednesday onwards, I would flood my brain with negative
- 3:44Speaker 4: thoughts about how I was going to play, and then
- 3:45Speaker 4: I was going to lose the game and I was going.
- 3:46Speaker 3: To let it run down and did that help you?
- 3:48Speaker 3: And that's what sort of helped me.
- 3:50Speaker 4: And it sort of ended with you know, just before
- 3:52Speaker 4: running out, I would sort of say to my mind,
- 3:54Speaker 4: we we'll see who's right. Play games on yourself, sort
- 3:57Speaker 4: of that disassociation between your thoughts and your elf, and
- 4:01Speaker 4: that's sort of how played out for fourteen years. So
- 4:03Speaker 4: it was a different a different mental preparation the most
- 4:06Speaker 4: and perhaps a little bit a little bit tiring, but
- 4:08Speaker 4: it was always a relief to actually run out there
- 4:10Speaker 4: on the field because by then the thoughts had stopped
- 4:12Speaker 4: and it was just an arm wrestle to see who
- 4:14Speaker 4: was right the thoughts or me.
- 4:16Speaker 5: That's fascinating. And so last one on footy. Do you
- 4:18Speaker 5: think that your experiences playing professional sport helped you in
- 4:21Speaker 5: business or investing?
- 4:22Speaker 3: They have? I mean, I think I'd be a better
- 4:24Speaker 3: investor if I said have done it. Yeah, that's really
- 4:26Speaker 3: interesting one.
- 4:27Speaker 4: But I certainly think I'm a much been investor now
- 4:30Speaker 4: than I would be if I was just sitting on
- 4:32Speaker 4: a couch scratching masks for years instead of playing professional sport. Yeah,
- 4:36Speaker 4: and it certainly does. You know, I think there's an
- 4:38Speaker 4: advantage to any profession if you think differently from the
- 4:41Speaker 4: people you're competing with.
- 4:43Speaker 3: And I certainly get that.
- 4:44Speaker 4: We don't get stuck in consensus fuse perhaps, or or
- 4:47Speaker 4: get stuck believing that a relationship has to continue forever
- 4:50Speaker 4: because it has in the past. That maybe some managers
- 4:53Speaker 4: do who've been an industry for thirty years and to
- 4:55Speaker 4: convince things have to work a certain way because that's
- 4:57Speaker 4: how they've always worked for them in their professional careers. So,
- 5:00Speaker 4: particularly a time like today when things are changing so
- 5:03Speaker 4: rapidly and there's lots of things professional investors seeing today
- 5:07Speaker 4: they've never seen before in their professional lives. You know,
- 5:10Speaker 4: there are perhaps some advantages coming from a parallel field.
- 5:13Speaker 2: Yeah, So, JD, we did a bit of digging. You
- 5:15Speaker 2: did your first investment when you were sixteen, and so
- 5:17Speaker 2: I've got a couple bit of cash from the aas Yes,
- 5:20Speaker 2: that's right. How did that one go? And then is
- 5:21Speaker 2: that what really prompted you to get passionate?
- 5:24Speaker 4: Tell us the truth that went well, so that went well,
- 5:27Speaker 4: not through skill but through luck. So it was awa,
- 5:30Speaker 4: I believe doubled. I've even got taken over. The other
- 5:33Speaker 4: thing we will look at buying was Woolworths, which would
- 5:35Speaker 4: have been a much better hold, forever, more boring investment,
- 5:39Speaker 4: and so that was Look, that was a good start
- 5:42Speaker 4: purely through luck.
- 5:43Speaker 3: But yeah, look, I.
- 5:44Speaker 4: Think there were just a number of things that appealed
- 5:46Speaker 4: to me with investing. You know, like, I'm naturally highly disagreeable.
- 5:51Speaker 4: Any time you make an investment, you're effectively saying that
- 5:54Speaker 4: the market is wrong on the price of this asset,
- 5:57Speaker 4: and I'm right, And that is a trait I think
- 5:59Speaker 4: more suited to people who are highly disagreeable. And I'm
- 6:02Speaker 4: highly competitive, and particularly with listed investments, there's just a
- 6:05Speaker 4: scoreboard available every day to see if you've won or
- 6:08Speaker 4: you've lost, So it sort of scratches those two itches.
- 6:11Speaker 4: And yeah, look, my grandfather loved his stocks. My old
- 6:15Speaker 4: man had no interest, and neither did my mum. But
- 6:17Speaker 4: perhaps it skipped a generation that interest. And it's certainly
- 6:20Speaker 4: you know something that I'm incredibly passionate about today.
- 6:22Speaker 5: Was there a point where you realized I'm actually not
- 6:24Speaker 5: bad at investing. I might make it my profession.
- 6:28Speaker 4: Yeah, Like I I met a guy when I was
- 6:30Speaker 4: twenty eight who I would say taught me how to
- 6:32Speaker 4: invest in listed equities and particularly small cap equities, which
- 6:35Speaker 4: to me means he taught me.
- 6:36Speaker 3: How to sell them.
- 6:38Speaker 4: You know, so properties if you buy well, I don't
- 6:40Speaker 4: think you really need to sell them. Listed equities, particularly
- 6:42Speaker 4: the small and the skill is in the selling, and
- 6:44Speaker 4: I felt he taught me how to do that, so
- 6:46Speaker 4: I started learning them. But I always envisis myself running
- 6:49Speaker 4: and operating business because the entrepreneurs I admired most that's
- 6:52Speaker 4: what they did. And I started working after foty years
- 6:55Speaker 4: an analyst in a VC fund, still not thinking i'd
- 6:58Speaker 4: become an investor, still with a view that I would
- 7:00Speaker 4: eventually either buy or start up an operating business somewhere,
- 7:04Speaker 4: and then the VC investing was a great opportunity, but
- 7:07Speaker 4: I didn't like any of those investments for my own money.
- 7:10Speaker 4: At the same time, I was doing really well investing
- 7:11Speaker 4: listed equities on the side, and then I just had
- 7:14Speaker 4: this moment. I love investing the listed equities. I'm doing
- 7:16Speaker 4: really well at it. Why is this not where I'm
- 7:19Speaker 4: spending my energy. So it was just sort of an
- 7:21Speaker 4: iteration of over about eighteen months. And I actually really
- 7:25Speaker 4: helped doing a personality test too, which was at about
- 7:28Speaker 4: the same time, which came back with just you know,
- 7:32Speaker 4: this bottom three percent for agreeability and which I've already mentioned,
- 7:36Speaker 4: but it was it came back as a personality it
- 7:39Speaker 4: was suited to ideas and certainly not suited to managing
- 7:42Speaker 4: large numbers of people. And I'm just not energized by
- 7:45Speaker 4: hr issues or you know, hearing about how someone's got
- 7:49Speaker 4: a headache or someone you know, girlfriend dumpedon, or just
- 7:52Speaker 4: my empathy is a bit low, so.
- 7:55Speaker 3: You know, and it's why I'd be a crap coach.
- 7:58Speaker 4: The idea of having cough's without an year olds because
- 8:01Speaker 4: they feel sad is just not what I'm built for.
- 8:03Speaker 4: And there's nothing that's great people that are built for that.
- 8:06Speaker 4: So but ideas and concepts, I just love exploring them
- 8:09Speaker 4: and can think about them menlessly. So eventually got to
- 8:12Speaker 4: that point where I realized that a startup or buying
- 8:15Speaker 4: and operating business with a large number of employees probably
- 8:19Speaker 4: wouldn't be the best best use of my skills, and
- 8:22Speaker 4: initially just started investing my own capital, and then after
- 8:27Speaker 4: a while felt, you know, I was almost the guy
- 8:29Speaker 4: surfing around the corner from Bell's Beach telling people he
- 8:31Speaker 4: could be in the comp if you wanted to, and
- 8:33Speaker 4: people would say, what are you doing, and I'd say,
- 8:35Speaker 4: I'm a full time investor, and they'd look at you
- 8:37Speaker 4: like you're employed, and.
- 8:39Speaker 3: That was starting to piss me off. I was starting
- 8:41Speaker 3: in a chip on my shoulder.
- 8:42Speaker 4: And at the same time, I'd already hired Tom, who's
- 8:44Speaker 4: our analyst. I'd hired him as my analyst in a
- 8:47Speaker 4: private capacity, and he was going really well. And I thought,
- 8:50Speaker 4: if you'd got in your young early twenties and you're ambitious,
- 8:53Speaker 4: which he is, and he's super smart, the right move
- 8:56Speaker 4: for him would be to go and work for a
- 8:57Speaker 4: fun to be part of something bigger. And that would
- 8:59Speaker 4: have been, you know, no good because he was going
- 9:01Speaker 4: really well and then got approached by a family office
- 9:05Speaker 4: to manage some money for them, and before we knew
- 9:07Speaker 4: the fund was born.
- 9:08Speaker 2: Nice and so with the fund, which I've seen has
- 9:11Speaker 2: done pretty well over the last twelve months and not
- 9:13Speaker 2: since inception, so Flux listeners thirty six and a half
- 9:16Speaker 2: percent over the past twelve months to September twenty twenty
- 9:19Speaker 2: five and then also twenty seven percent annualized since inception,
- 9:22Speaker 2: so very impressive numbers. What is the investment philosophy of
- 9:26Speaker 2: the fund and how do you decide what to invest in?
- 9:29Speaker 4: Yeah, so we're we call ourselves a macro fund, which
- 9:32Speaker 4: means our which means to us, our idea generation comes
- 9:35Speaker 4: from top down macro themes, so we can invest anywhere
- 9:39Speaker 4: in the world. We generally just invest in Australian listed equities,
- 9:43Speaker 4: but if there's a macro theme we really like and
- 9:45Speaker 4: we can't express it here, we will go overseas if
- 9:48Speaker 4: we find appropriately valued companies to express that macro thematic view.
- 9:53Speaker 4: The next thing we do is really focusing on liquidity
- 9:56Speaker 4: in terms of the style of company we buy. So
- 9:59Speaker 4: whenquidity is loose, and liquidity to us is metrics like
- 10:02Speaker 4: money supply, central bank balance sheets, you know, interest rates,
- 10:08Speaker 4: these sorts of broad metrics largely focused on the US
- 10:11Speaker 4: because that's where most of the liquidity is. When liquidity
- 10:14Speaker 4: is loose, we want to be in companies that are
- 10:17Speaker 4: perhaps more of a growth bend and smaller companies. When
- 10:22Speaker 4: liquidity is really tight, like when we started the fund,
- 10:24Speaker 4: there was negative money supplying the US, which is like
- 10:26Speaker 4: a one in one hundred yuro event. When liquidity is tight,
- 10:28Speaker 4: we want to be in larger cap positions, or if
- 10:31Speaker 4: they're small, we want them to be producing a lot
- 10:33Speaker 4: of amount of free cash flow today. And we meet management,
- 10:37Speaker 4: we do our topped up, we do our bottom up analysis,
- 10:39Speaker 4: and then and then we execute the trade. So generally,
- 10:42Speaker 4: the separation of work is I spend most of my
- 10:45Speaker 4: time in the macro and liquidity. I'll often give Tom
- 10:49Speaker 4: the analyst, a short list of two or three stocks.
- 10:51Speaker 4: He'll then build financial models and do this sort of
- 10:54Speaker 4: stuff that he's much better at than me, and then
- 10:56Speaker 4: we'll meet management and ultimately be my decision which company
- 11:00Speaker 4: we invest in, and how that portfolio structuring works is
- 11:05Speaker 4: relation to other investments.
- 11:06Speaker 5: And given your long only, how often on average would
- 11:09Speaker 5: you say you're actually transacting.
- 11:11Speaker 4: Most days, but very rarely on a new position. Okay,
- 11:14Speaker 4: so we're super focused on not just what companies do
- 11:16Speaker 4: we like, but we really want companies we like the
- 11:19Speaker 4: most at this valuation to be our biggest holdings. So
- 11:22Speaker 4: you know, generally two percent is a small position for US,
- 11:25Speaker 4: four percent is a large position. Right now, We've got
- 11:28Speaker 4: one position that's a bit of a six percent, so
- 11:30Speaker 4: that feels really that feels quite large for us, But
- 11:33Speaker 4: it would be really annoying for us if one percent
- 11:36Speaker 4: position doubled in a way, because we were almost there.
- 11:38Speaker 4: We liked it, but we didn't have a big enough
- 11:40Speaker 4: bet on it. So whilst I don't know how often
- 11:44Speaker 4: a new position would come in, I.
- 11:45Speaker 3: Don't think even every month.
- 11:46Speaker 4: We're trading around most days just to try and get
- 11:48Speaker 4: the portfolio construction where we.
- 11:50Speaker 2: Want it interesting And is it mainly Is your portfolio
- 11:53Speaker 2: made up mainly of small caps?
- 11:55Speaker 3: It is at the minute, but we've still got some
- 11:57Speaker 3: large caps. Yeah, and not much of it.
- 11:58Speaker 4: We probably have about five percent and overseas currently Yeah, okay, Jaddy.
- 12:02Speaker 5: Looking ahead, is there a particular bold idea or opportunity
- 12:06Speaker 5: that you are thinking about investing in.
- 12:09Speaker 4: Yeah, Well, I'd like to think all of our ideas
- 12:12Speaker 4: are bold and we've executed on them.
- 12:14Speaker 3: I mean, I think.
- 12:17Speaker 2: Is there a particular industry that excites you?
- 12:19Speaker 3: Yeah?
- 12:19Speaker 4: Look, I think robotics and you know, to say AI,
- 12:25Speaker 4: I'm not that into a coincidentally, so I mean for
- 12:29Speaker 4: us AI, what's interesting is electricity generation. We feel that's
- 12:33Speaker 4: where the bottleneck is deep seak. China's AI large language
- 12:36Speaker 4: model is open source and in a lot of ways,
- 12:38Speaker 4: demonetized AI large language models overnight in our view, So
- 12:44Speaker 4: where we feel the most interesting bottleneck is in that
- 12:47Speaker 4: electricity capacity, particularly.
- 12:49Speaker 3: In the US.
- 12:49Speaker 4: China's way ahead in the terms of the amount of
- 12:52Speaker 4: electricity they can produce, and at times in certain areas
- 12:55Speaker 4: they've got surplus electricity, which is pretty neat problem because
- 12:58Speaker 4: of their hydro electric So in terms of AI, that's
- 13:03Speaker 4: a theme we're really excited about how the US.
- 13:05Speaker 3: Can improve their electrical grid.
- 13:07Speaker 4: We think that's a significant issue that's probably not top
- 13:10Speaker 4: of mind if you were to say, you know, critical
- 13:12Speaker 4: minerals is.
- 13:12Speaker 3: The you know, the sexist investmentmatic right now.
- 13:16Speaker 4: You know, the antimody stocks and rare earth stocks or
- 13:18Speaker 4: raw earth stocks.
- 13:19Speaker 3: Is Trump and these are reasonably large companies, some of
- 13:24Speaker 3: them like MP materials, so like that's really sexy right here.
- 13:27Speaker 4: But you know, that electricity grid is another one which
- 13:31Speaker 4: we think is really interesting. We also think at the
- 13:33Speaker 4: end of the day, the US couldn't win the proxy
- 13:36Speaker 4: war in Ukraine between China because they couldn't match the
- 13:39Speaker 4: manufacturing capacity of China, China, and to a lesser extent, Russia.
- 13:44Speaker 4: You know Russia's mintal production, China's manufacturing capacity.
- 13:48Speaker 3: And you can't win a.
- 13:49Speaker 4: Hot war if you're bringing up the adversary and saying
- 13:52Speaker 4: can you send us some bullets. So whilst bringing manufacturing
- 13:56Speaker 4: back to the US has been framed by the Trump
- 13:58Speaker 4: administration is an economic issue, we think it's more a
- 14:01Speaker 4: Department of Defense issue, and we think it's wildly important.
- 14:06Speaker 4: So things that can improve efficiency of manufacturing in the US, automation,
- 14:11Speaker 4: three D printing, these sorts of things are going to
- 14:13Speaker 4: be necessary because you've got to remember the US has
- 14:16Speaker 4: squashed migration currently, so they're not growing the labor force
- 14:22Speaker 4: that can do that manufacturing work. If it's the same
- 14:24Speaker 4: as your grand pass manufacturing work, and we don't think
- 14:26Speaker 4: we'll be. We think we highly automated using robots and
- 14:29Speaker 4: three D printing in these sort of technology. So we
- 14:31Speaker 4: think that's interesting and in a way is the same
- 14:34Speaker 4: sort of trade as the rare earth trade.
- 14:37Speaker 3: It's just expressed in a slightly different way.
- 14:40Speaker 2: Jodi asked one before we get into our flux five,
- 14:42Speaker 2: which is our fast five questions, if we would have
- 14:45Speaker 2: this conversation again in five years talking Culton talking investments.
- 14:49Speaker 2: What let's put Culton's to side. From now, where would
- 14:53Speaker 2: you see sarity being?
- 14:54Speaker 1: Like?
- 14:54Speaker 2: What where would you like sarity to be? From both
- 14:57Speaker 2: funds under management? Do you think your approach would change?
- 15:00Speaker 2: What do you think five years from now you'll be.
- 15:02Speaker 4: So we take great pride in being a small fund,
- 15:06Speaker 4: and we always plan on protecting that edge because we
- 15:08Speaker 4: think it's significant. So we want to close the fund
- 15:11Speaker 4: at one hundred and fifty million bucks. We're currently about seventy.
- 15:15Speaker 4: We want to then grow that one hundred and fifty
- 15:16Speaker 4: to three hundred, give everyone half their money back, and
- 15:19Speaker 4: see how many times we can do that.
- 15:20Speaker 3: That's the goal.
- 15:23Speaker 4: So in five years time, I hope we have closed
- 15:25Speaker 4: the fund, and I would hope we're closing on that point.
- 15:30Speaker 3: Where we can give investors half their money back, or
- 15:32Speaker 3: we may have done it if without being too.
- 15:34Speaker 4: Smug, because I know the market gods don't like smugness,
- 15:36Speaker 4: and they'll punish me for that. You don't want to
- 15:39Speaker 4: punish anyone market. God's punished bread, not me. So yes,
- 15:45Speaker 4: that's sort of how we're looking. We're not trying to
- 15:46Speaker 4: manage tenbion bucks. We're not chasing institutional super fund money.
- 15:51Speaker 4: We want to be able to move quickly and be
- 15:53Speaker 4: more agile than other funds.
- 15:55Speaker 3: So that's sort of the very broad road map of
- 15:58Speaker 3: where we're going.
- 15:58Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. Part two of the podcast with Chris
- 16:01Speaker 1: Judd will come out on Monday, the third of November,
- 16:03Speaker 1: where brettan Justin speak to Chris about his investments within
- 16:06Speaker 1: the Serty Macrofund and what excites him for the future.
- 16:09Speaker 1: We'll see you then,