Latest / The Muster on Hokonui / The Muster- Jeff Grant: A Tight Election Race

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The Muster- Jeff Grant: A Tight Election Race · The Muster on Hokonui

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Jeff Grant joins us in this week's Political Roundup, thanks
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: to BioCharge. Jeff, good afternoon. How's things? Good, thanks, Andy.
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: And we march towards November the 7th as it comes
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: around the corner. Not long to go. I think for
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: a lot of people, though, looking at the political landscape,
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: trying to make an informed decision and just being bombarded
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: with messaging, when does fatigue kick in?
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Look, I think this particular election's had a bit of
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: a late start and I think the interest is more
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: around the polls and what that means in terms of
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: the minor parties versus the two major parties. It is
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: the first time the two major parties collectively have been
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: below 60% in total votes predicted. But look, that always changes.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: And so the direction tends to be the major parties
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: strengthen a little bit by election day and the minority
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: parties weaken a little bit. But I would say this
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: is the year of the minor parties.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: It's incredible to think that the two major parties have
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: dipped below 30%, but at the same time we're being told, oh,
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: not that many years ago, if you were at 28%,
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  Speaker 2: you were out of government, even months ago, for goodness sake.
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  Speaker 2: But then you're just trying to line up the left
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: or the right. Which one is going to come through?
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  Speaker 2: And I think it's fair to say this election's on
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  Speaker 2: a knife edge.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Oh, look, it will be in the sense, you know,
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: this is our first experience of three political parties in
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: a coalition. I think there is a real possibility of
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: four political parties in a coalition, either on the left
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: or the right. That would happen if, I think, top
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: got in ahead of a Māori party winning more than
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: two or three seats. So that would make quite a
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: change in terms of the New Zealand political landscape.
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: How have you found it so far, what you're hearing
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: from both sides of the spectrum? I mean, to be honest,
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: Labour's speaking a lot more farmer-friendly than what they have
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: in the past.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: I think Labour's taken a much more pragmatic approach. I
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: think it got hammered in the agriculture sector the last
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: time around without any doubt. And so, you know, they've
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: announced that they want to see more flexibility around land
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  Speaker 1: use for farmers. They want the ETS to be... not
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: on a pricing system, so that's good. And probably a
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: little bit, they struggled a wee bit at the start
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  Speaker 1: with the capital gains tax, but I think they've been
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: able to bring that back online. They're implying that small
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: businesses and family farming operations won't be caught by the
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: capital gains tax. So I think they've taken a more
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: pragmatic attitude towards it. National, I mean, National hasn't announced
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: a lot. You know, yesterday we had the water storage
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: and sort of an announcement around a fertiliser security of
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: $ 10 million. I'm not quite sure how that works. You know,
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: this is the party that promised us in coalition that
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: they were going to get the RMA out the other
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: side and change and it would have a dramatic effect
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: and 50% less resource consents required and all, you know,
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: getting the bureaucracy up. But I don't know. I'd say
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: most farmers would say they still feel they're on the
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: edge of a bureaucracy in terms of farming. just the
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: same as they were three years ago. So National's got
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: a wee bit to do to get that across the line.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: I think that the reality is the more parties involved,
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: the longer it'll take.
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  Speaker 2: Interesting, too. Speaking to Greg Erickson later in the hour,
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: based over in Canada, talking about the fuel situation, that's something, though,
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: that's pretty relevant to a lot of people just coming
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: into the busy season as the ground gradually dries up.
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: But fertiliser's going to be the big issue. You think
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: fertiliser's a new fuel concern?
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, look, we're definitely seeing a situation where the supplies
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: have been impacted quite dramatically around the world, predominantly by
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: humus straight being closed. But there was prior to this
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  Speaker 1: a natural demand increase for use of fertiliser around the world,
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: increasing food production. And so on top of that, having...
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: The ability to actually get the product done and out
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  Speaker 1: into the market is getting harder. The pricing mechanism looks
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: like it's going to continue on an upward trend generally
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  Speaker 1: rather than downward. But I think the bigger issue will
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  Speaker 1: be the physical supply. New Zealand looks pretty good at
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: the moment, but it's a bit like the old, count
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  Speaker 1: how many days of fuel you've got left, we're probably
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: just going to start counting how many days of fertiliser
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: we've got left.
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  Speaker 2: What's the big issue with fertiliser, Jeff? Just supply and
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: getting it here?
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  Speaker 1: A combination of things. One, obviously, the humus straight. But
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  Speaker 1: the second is that the price of natural gas has
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: gone up quite substantially internationally. It's a big user of
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: producing synthetic fertilisers. It's had an impact on the cost.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: The second is that actual plants that are providing fertiliser
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: or chemically fertilised adapting fertiliser have been taken out, either
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: in Russia or in the Middle East, and so the
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: physical volume of supply is being restricted as well.
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: But with the fuel situation and Trump agreeing with Putin
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: for Russia to release fuel reserves to the US, this
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: is going to continue to be an issue going forward.
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: We don't see any immediate end to paying at the pump.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: So Trump is obviously, his administration is facing what they
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: know is the midterm elections in mid-November. Fuel is a
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: big issue, similar to here in New Zealand in terms
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: of the whole cost of living. And I think that
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: these announcements are all to pressure the market rather than
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  Speaker 1: physically change the market. The volumes they're talking out of
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: Russia are so pathetic in terms of consumption by the U.S.,
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: They're not going to materially change the price in the US.
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  Speaker 1: And Trump's just trying to shift the focus and say, well,
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: it's not me and Iran causing all this problem. It's
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: the fact that we've continued to have the Russian-Ukraine war
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: going on. Well, I'm sorry, but I've got a funny
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: feeling in the Middle East that the problem is on
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: fuel price.
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: And Donald Trump's trying to cover his backside as he
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: heads into the midterms as well, which could see a
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: change in power in Congress.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely within Congress there's a pretty good chance that
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: the Democrats will topple the Republicans in the number of
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: seats held in the midterm. I think a little bit
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: harder in the Senate, but you do have this term
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: commonly known halfway through a presidential cycle, and that's called
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: a lame duck president, and that's because they lose the
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: majority in either the Senate or the Congress, and that's
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: a risk definitely in Congress.
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: Good on you, Jeff. Enjoy the afternoon.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: Well done. Catch you again, Andy.
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: Jeff Grant. Ben Dooley's up next. This is The Muster.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: Am I only dreaming?