Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / WAR Panic! vs Crypto🔥Market Update🚨
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: The US is now engaged in a engagement with Let
- 0:03Speaker 1: me do that again. The US is now engaged in
- 0:07Speaker 1: a conflict with Iran. And now the question is do
- 0:10Speaker 1: you buy the panic in the markets of what is
- 0:12Speaker 1: happening today. We'll break it down for you get into
- 0:14Speaker 1: all of that. One thing you guys should do, though,
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- 0:36Speaker 1: all sorts of advantages that you guys can use, including
- 0:39Speaker 1: a bit of a discount on trading fees. All of
- 0:42Speaker 1: that just by using our link. So check that out.
- 0:44Speaker 1: We'll leave a link down below for you guys to
- 0:46Speaker 1: get started. A lot of things happening, of course over
- 0:48Speaker 1: the weekend with the Iranian attack, and now you of
- 0:52Speaker 1: course seen the market respond just in the last sixty minutes. This,
- 0:56Speaker 1: of course, is what we saw this morning. Bitcoin was up,
- 1:00Speaker 1: was up, BnB was up, XRP was up, pretty much
- 1:03Speaker 1: the entire market up in green where we started to
- 1:06Speaker 1: see market flows in a heavy way. And of course,
- 1:09Speaker 1: if you look at what Mohammad was saying coming in
- 1:12Speaker 1: from CMBC, a classic initial market reaction to this weekend's
- 1:16Speaker 1: eruption of military conflict in the Middle East. Oil has
- 1:19Speaker 1: searched ten percent. We saw that the dollar has strengthened
- 1:22Speaker 1: and now down futures have opened down some five hundred points,
- 1:26Speaker 1: So people maybe flighting to some assets that are the
- 1:31Speaker 1: safe assets. Mean we would say, well that might be bitcoin,
- 1:33Speaker 1: might be gold, might be oil, might be energy stocks.
- 1:36Speaker 1: In general, where are you guys going if you look
- 1:39Speaker 1: at the market. We put out a poll this morning early.
- 1:42Speaker 1: The first thing though was that in the early hours
- 1:46Speaker 1: this was at like almost eighty percent. Is that we'd
- 1:49Speaker 1: see the market crash because of the risk considerations. But
- 1:54Speaker 1: here recently that has stabled off and pump now with
- 1:58Speaker 1: gold and oil is in life. And if you look
- 2:00Speaker 1: at the gold chart you can kind of see what
- 2:02Speaker 1: I'm talking about over fifty two hundred as we're reporting,
- 2:05Speaker 1: and of course oil continues to fly. I'll show you
- 2:08Speaker 1: a chart on oil in a second big wee week
- 2:11Speaker 1: ahead though. Right now for crypto holders, we've got the
- 2:13Speaker 1: March second US market open for obviously for what's going
- 2:17Speaker 1: on right now with ism manufacturing a PMI which was
- 2:20Speaker 1: down or up, I should say, which means good for
- 2:23Speaker 1: the economy. Third March, we'll have the ADP non farm
- 2:27Speaker 1: data jobs reports.
- 2:28Speaker 2: Will come in.
- 2:29Speaker 1: This will be a very important report because if this
- 2:33Speaker 1: one comes in as soft as I think many people
- 2:36Speaker 1: and analysts are concerned with, this could be a big deal,
- 2:40Speaker 1: could be a damper for the week. And then the
- 2:42Speaker 1: fifth we'll see initial job as claims, which I think
- 2:45Speaker 1: is going to be much greater than people anticipate. If
- 2:47Speaker 1: you followed and have been watching, the amount of tech
- 2:51Speaker 1: firms that are doing layoffs pretty significant and large enough.
- 2:55Speaker 1: And even I think Jack Dorsey was on laying off
- 2:58Speaker 1: four thousand people was straight truthful with everybody saying, hey,
- 3:02Speaker 1: the A automation is charging this and we're going to
- 3:04Speaker 1: continue to lean. In the six we'll see nonfarm payrolls
- 3:09Speaker 1: and the unemployment data jump in, and that will be
- 3:12Speaker 1: the final blow that we will get coming in prior
- 3:15Speaker 1: to the ADP data that we'll be coming in, and
- 3:18Speaker 1: most of those sometimes they don't necessarily align. So it's
- 3:21Speaker 1: very key that these employment numbers come in accurate, Hopefully
- 3:26Speaker 1: we'll get some that really make a difference in understanding. Here,
- 3:30Speaker 1: of course, is gold futures officially rising another up to
- 3:33Speaker 1: fifty four hundred and ounce. All this is again with
- 3:37Speaker 1: people flying to safety looking at what's happening right now.
- 3:40Speaker 1: Nobody really knows whether or not this is going to
- 3:42Speaker 1: be a long term engagement with Iran or if this
- 3:45Speaker 1: is going to be a short term engagement. This is
- 3:48Speaker 1: a much different angle that President Trump is having to
- 3:52Speaker 1: deal with, and it's the largest country we've engaged with
- 3:54Speaker 1: yet at least of recent so this could play out
- 3:59Speaker 1: in a very bad so be ready for that. Foreign
- 4:02Speaker 1: central banks, though, continue to add on pack on the
- 4:04Speaker 1: gold as they continue to now surge past dollars holding
- 4:09Speaker 1: and being held of US Treasury, So first time in
- 4:12Speaker 1: thirty years that this has happened. We reported on this
- 4:14Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago because it did cross over
- 4:16Speaker 1: about two weeks ago, and the real question was would
- 4:19Speaker 1: it hold on? It appears if you zoom in on
- 4:22Speaker 1: that it's not just holding on. This thing is flying
- 4:25Speaker 1: past that. So gold continues to be one of the
- 4:29Speaker 1: key assets the world market right now. You look at
- 4:32Speaker 1: UK gas up twenty three. This is lng reason for that,
- 4:36Speaker 1: one of the biggest suppliers of liquid natural gas we
- 4:39Speaker 1: see in the Middle East. Crude oil up eight percent,
- 4:43Speaker 1: slightly up on the market, but definitely over the last
- 4:45Speaker 1: couple of months. I'll show you a Brent crude chart
- 4:48Speaker 1: here in a bit, gasoling up four, gold up two,
- 4:51Speaker 1: silver up to Bitcoin was flat now up considerable since
- 4:55Speaker 1: this report was done, So things are starting to move
- 4:58Speaker 1: around in the market. President Trump says the conflict in
- 5:00Speaker 1: Iran could last four weeks. This is daily mail. However,
- 5:04Speaker 1: if you look at the polymarket, this is very fluid.
- 5:07Speaker 1: We are now seeing this could go as late as
- 5:10Speaker 1: June thirtieth, and if this thing goes into midterms, this
- 5:13Speaker 1: would be very bad. I think for the administration. I
- 5:17Speaker 1: think they're going to do everything they can to get
- 5:18Speaker 1: this thing done for whatever reason. If this extends, this
- 5:23Speaker 1: could be a very messy situation. Right now, let me
- 5:27Speaker 1: go to a clip real quick. This is Tapper from
- 5:29Speaker 1: CNN talking about the President responding to what's happening in
- 5:33Speaker 1: the Middle East, saying that the big wave has not
- 5:36Speaker 1: even hit yet.
- 5:36Speaker 3: Take a look, Well, what right now? We want everyone
- 5:38Speaker 3: staying inside it's not safe out there, and then the
- 5:42Speaker 3: President said it's about to get even less safe. He said, quote,
- 5:45Speaker 3: we haven't even started hitting them hard. The big wave
- 5:49Speaker 3: hasn't even happened. The big one is coming soon.
- 5:53Speaker 1: So whether you listen to what Trump said and you
- 5:55Speaker 1: kind of say, all right, this is the angle I'm
- 5:57Speaker 1: gonna take.
- 5:57Speaker 2: I'm gonna go energy, and I'm going to go.
- 5:59Speaker 1: Safe assets, whether that's gold, oil, energy, whatever it might be.
- 6:04Speaker 1: Or do you look at possibly taking the counterplay and
- 6:07Speaker 1: going after a risk asset once this has stopped, do
- 6:10Speaker 1: we get a bounce on much of these risk assets
- 6:12Speaker 1: going forward? Let me know in the comments how you
- 6:14Speaker 1: guys are playing this right now, especially if we actually
- 6:18Speaker 1: haven't entered into the real conflict yet. If Trump and
- 6:21Speaker 1: his statements are not over zealous, but are actually telling
- 6:26Speaker 1: us what we're going to about, see that that is
- 6:28Speaker 1: the question going forward. A couple of points I want
- 6:31Speaker 1: to hit on right here. This is Anthony Scaramucci, and
- 6:34Speaker 1: he's talking about that this is not necessarily an economic boycott,
- 6:38Speaker 1: it is a capital boycott.
- 6:40Speaker 4: Take a look, I'm worried about the market because mister
- 6:43Speaker 4: Buffett took four hundred billion dollars out of the market
- 6:46Speaker 4: when he looks at certain levels of valuation metrics that
- 6:48Speaker 4: he looks at. And I'm worried about the market because
- 6:51Speaker 4: Trump single handedly is taking the marginal dollar that used
- 6:56Speaker 4: to flow into America's safe and secure markets and with
- 7:00Speaker 4: markets where rule of law was predictable, and people now
- 7:04Speaker 4: want to punish America. You talk about a boycott, an
- 7:07Speaker 4: economic boycott, I'm talking about a capital boycott, the sovereign
- 7:10Speaker 4: wealth fun of Norway. It's like, okay, let me put
- 7:12Speaker 4: my incremental dollar into America right now. I'm telling you
- 7:15Speaker 4: they're not. They're like, hey, f you guys, find other
- 7:18Speaker 4: places to go with the money. And look at the
- 7:20Speaker 4: tourism numbers are down. Look at the flights from Europe,
- 7:22Speaker 4: look at the flights from Canada into Florida. As a
- 7:25Speaker 4: bigger industry than manufacturing everybody exactly. So to me, what
- 7:29Speaker 4: I'm worried about is the knock on effects of Donald Trump.
- 7:34Speaker 4: I think the tech guys are going to be okay,
- 7:36Speaker 4: probably for the next twelve months because of where race
- 7:39Speaker 4: are going. Unless you're telling me Rick readers getting the job,
- 7:42Speaker 4: and he turns to you and says something that a
- 7:44Speaker 4: traditional fed Shairman would say, which is, Hey, I'm probably
- 7:46Speaker 4: raising race fifty basis points. Wait what, well, goal's at
- 7:49Speaker 4: five thousand. The dollar is falling, the end carry trade
- 7:53Speaker 4: is for Cocta, and I'm going to raise race here
- 7:55Speaker 4: to put the thing back in equipoise.
- 7:57Speaker 2: So the market is not sensing that mark nonsense. Okay.
- 8:00Speaker 1: I agree with some of the things that Anthony was
- 8:02Speaker 1: talking about, and that is that whether it's I don't
- 8:05Speaker 1: know that it's capital flight yet, I'm not sure where,
- 8:09Speaker 1: because when it boils down to it, I think investors
- 8:11Speaker 1: try to find the best place for capital to go.
- 8:14Speaker 2: And work right. You do that, I do that a
- 8:17Speaker 2: lot of times.
- 8:17Speaker 1: You have blinders on to many of the things that
- 8:20Speaker 1: are around that most of the thing, not always, but
- 8:22Speaker 1: most of the time.
- 8:23Speaker 2: And I think he is right.
- 8:24Speaker 1: There's probably now questions being asked, should we put our
- 8:28Speaker 1: money in US stock, Should we put our money into
- 8:30Speaker 1: some of these funds, Should we go into US treasures
- 8:33Speaker 1: or flip into gold. We just showed you the chart
- 8:34Speaker 1: on that. Now, what Kara was talking about there about tourism,
- 8:38Speaker 1: I kind of did a fact check here. Manufacturing right
- 8:42Speaker 1: now is significantly larger than tourism in terms of total
- 8:46Speaker 1: economic output, but tourism, leisure and hospitality employs more people.
- 8:51Speaker 2: I know that.
- 8:51Speaker 1: If you look at the restaurant industry alone, you're talking
- 8:53Speaker 1: about fifteen to twenty million people that's restaurant and hospitality.
- 8:58Speaker 1: So if they're impacted in a big way, that could
- 9:01Speaker 1: be a problem because it has more rippling effects in
- 9:05Speaker 1: the economic side of things. I wouldn't say that it
- 9:08Speaker 1: has more on the capital side of things, but definitely
- 9:11Speaker 1: more on the economic side of things.
- 9:14Speaker 2: So that's a good example of it right there.
- 9:16Speaker 1: Annual GDP two point nine trillion on manufacturing, two point
- 9:19Speaker 1: three to two point nine on leisure and hospitality share
- 9:22Speaker 1: of US around ten.
- 9:23Speaker 2: To eight versus.
- 9:24Speaker 1: But here's the key, twelve point eight million there back
- 9:27Speaker 1: to my point seventeen million right now, So either one
- 9:31Speaker 1: of these now, if we're growing and manufacturing, okay, I
- 9:35Speaker 1: get that that, I know that's Trump's kind.
- 9:37Speaker 2: Of big play here.
- 9:38Speaker 1: But if we're losing hospitality and tourism jobs, that's a
- 9:43Speaker 1: big problem going forward.
- 9:45Speaker 2: So not a good look here. So if you look.
- 9:49Speaker 1: At what Business Insider was reporting on, they and this backseup.
- 9:52Speaker 1: What Anthony's talking about is that there is travel that
- 9:56Speaker 1: is starting to reduce here. So the Canadians have reduced,
- 10:00Speaker 1: Australians have reduced, but respectively. Right now it's around three
- 10:03Speaker 1: percent fewer trips in the US coming in. If that
- 10:06Speaker 1: goes into double digit, that will have significant impact hotel,
- 10:12Speaker 1: restaurant conventions, all of the things and the surrounding businesses
- 10:17Speaker 1: that support that. But there's so many so be on
- 10:20Speaker 1: the lookout of this. This could get bad quickly, and
- 10:24Speaker 1: I think Scaramucci is right, We're not there yet, but
- 10:26Speaker 1: some of the things that have to stabilize here in the.
- 10:28Speaker 2: US for us to get there are up.
- 10:31Speaker 1: Now let's go into another clip that shows where the
- 10:35Speaker 1: market could be going and Tom Lee comes in and
- 10:38Speaker 1: talks about March. Does he think it's going up or
- 10:41Speaker 1: does he think it's going down?
- 10:42Speaker 5: Take a look in past incidents like this, and every
- 10:46Speaker 5: single time that's happened, we've always said, well, in past incidents,
- 10:51Speaker 5: it never lasts that long.
- 10:53Speaker 2: That's right.
- 10:54Speaker 6: I Mean, nobody likes to see headlines and the images
- 10:58Speaker 6: of explosions and war, but it's not really going to
- 11:03Speaker 6: change the fundamentals of the US.
- 11:05Speaker 2: So in the past.
- 11:07Speaker 6: Markets kind of sell off into the build up and
- 11:11Speaker 6: then they tend to do better once the battle begins,
- 11:15Speaker 6: and I think this is going to be similar. I
- 11:17Speaker 6: think the worst of the sell off is going to
- 11:19Speaker 6: happen this week. And you know, I would expect actually
- 11:23Speaker 6: March to be an up month for the stock market.
- 11:26Speaker 5: But it comes in like a bear goes out like
- 11:28Speaker 5: a whole.
- 11:28Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 11:29Speaker 6: Yeah, it probably comes in with the better weather. But
- 11:31Speaker 6: you know, the things like software, the mag seven and
- 11:33Speaker 6: the crypto all had early weakness. They're all probably in
- 11:37Speaker 6: the final stages or of already bottomed. And I think
- 11:41Speaker 6: that helps lead us up to an up Papril.
- 11:43Speaker 5: If you've woken up in the middle of the night
- 11:45Speaker 5: and looked at where a theoreum is and said, I
- 11:48Speaker 5: can't go back to sleep.
- 11:50Speaker 2: I don't know if he can go back to sleep,
- 11:51Speaker 2: but he decided to go.
- 11:53Speaker 1: If he did wake up, he went out and bought
- 11:54Speaker 1: more eth So I think I think he's doing just
- 11:57Speaker 1: fine with this of where he thinks it's going.
- 11:59Speaker 2: But he said a.
- 12:00Speaker 1: Keyword there that I think everybody probably caught, and that
- 12:03Speaker 1: was the word probably probably goes up. So if he
- 12:10Speaker 1: is not that confident and you've got I mean, these
- 12:12Speaker 1: guys are as good as it gets on Wall Street
- 12:14Speaker 1: of understanding where the money is going. Capital flow, capital in,
- 12:17Speaker 1: capital out kind of situation. And if Tom Lee is
- 12:20Speaker 1: not fully on board that March is an up month,
- 12:23Speaker 1: I'm still kind of curious.
- 12:24Speaker 2: S and P five hundred never lost a war.
- 12:27Speaker 1: If you look at the markets are up after that,
- 12:29Speaker 1: here's all the different conflicts that have taken space and
- 12:32Speaker 1: where the S and P goes. Everything has been up
- 12:36Speaker 1: and to the right. So there you go, guys, if
- 12:38Speaker 1: you're just playing the war card now. Arthur Hayes came
- 12:41Speaker 1: in and said, we think that the Middle East conflict
- 12:44Speaker 1: is actually going to boost crypto and many of that
- 12:47Speaker 1: is really coming into the point. He says that was
- 12:50Speaker 1: the problem we saw for a while, which was where
- 12:53Speaker 1: we were seeing crypto support really break down. This could
- 12:57Speaker 1: change things if risk acids start to get a little
- 13:00Speaker 1: bit of a movement overall, Bitcoin ten style perform traditional
- 13:04Speaker 1: assets like gold and stocks during jipilitive shocks.
- 13:07Speaker 2: Per black Rock. This is coming in.
- 13:09Speaker 1: I don't know if it's going to continue to perform
- 13:12Speaker 1: around gold like gold has been performing, but if it
- 13:16Speaker 1: does get a run, then yes.
- 13:18Speaker 2: It could outpace gold.
- 13:19Speaker 1: But the question will be what does that look like
- 13:22Speaker 1: if things do get worse in the Middle East, So
- 13:26Speaker 1: watch that very closely. Let me know what you guys,
- 13:28Speaker 1: would you buy bitcoin or would you buy gold if
- 13:33Speaker 1: things get worse in Iran with the United States? Just
- 13:36Speaker 1: drop bitcoin or go BTC or gold down in the comments.
- 13:40Speaker 1: I want you to take a look at this right here,
- 13:42Speaker 1: because bitcoin logged its fifth red month. It's going for
- 13:44Speaker 1: its sixth. Last time we saw six was in twenty
- 13:47Speaker 1: eighteen nineteen, and we did see a reversal though, which
- 13:51Speaker 1: was maybe what Arthur Hayes is talking about that we
- 13:54Speaker 1: could see that kind of run up which was a
- 13:57Speaker 1: three hundred and sixteen percent return over the following five months.
- 14:00Speaker 1: So nice moves if that is in fact the bottom
- 14:04Speaker 1: of where we're looking at the charts right now, as
- 14:06Speaker 1: crypto hovers right around sixty eight k on bitcoin at
- 14:10Speaker 1: time and recording odds now that the Fed is not cutting.
- 14:13Speaker 2: Rates though have surged at for March up to ninety
- 14:17Speaker 2: five point seven percent.
- 14:19Speaker 1: Likelihood no rate cut continues, However, that could change quickly
- 14:23Speaker 1: if we start to see more pressure in the Middle East.
- 14:27Speaker 1: Does the FED end up getting into a position where
- 14:29Speaker 1: they have to push and actually do a rate cut.
- 14:32Speaker 1: Oil price though, does not beol wet excuse me. Oil
- 14:35Speaker 1: prices do not bode well for rate cuts. You look
- 14:39Speaker 1: at this right here. According to the FED, every ten
- 14:40Speaker 1: dollars increase and oil prices leads to about aero point
- 14:43Speaker 1: two in inflation.
- 14:45Speaker 2: And I'll show you a chart right now that doesn't
- 14:47Speaker 2: make sense.
- 14:48Speaker 1: This is the twenty three chart from the FED report,
- 14:51Speaker 1: which should kind of put this into context in terms
- 14:53Speaker 1: of Brent crude and where the headline CPI was going.
- 14:57Speaker 1: So just understand kind of correlates right there. Here was
- 15:01Speaker 1: a good example of this. I want to show you
- 15:04Speaker 1: Anthony Pampliano. He's hitting into the topic of trueflation, saying
- 15:10Speaker 1: that inflation is down.
- 15:11Speaker 3: Guys.
- 15:11Speaker 1: I used to believe that this was the accurate barometer
- 15:16Speaker 1: for inflation. I'm not really on this one as much anymore.
- 15:19Speaker 1: I think this one is as bad as the data
- 15:21Speaker 1: we get out of DC because of what they recently
- 15:25Speaker 1: Trueflation announced to us about what they weren't tracking, and
- 15:30Speaker 1: some of the things they weren't tracking were key to
- 15:33Speaker 1: the economic status of Americans. So I don't know that
- 15:36Speaker 1: we can actually seriously say that we're seeing this kind
- 15:40Speaker 1: of erratic behavior when right now we know that oil
- 15:44Speaker 1: has been going up. Here is the Brint crewed. I'm
- 15:47Speaker 1: just going to go back here to the bottom, which
- 15:48Speaker 1: was sixty dollars a barrel that was on what was that? Yeah,
- 15:53Speaker 1: look at that right there. That was January. Then it
- 15:56Speaker 1: moves up right here into February. We're still hovering around
- 16:00Speaker 1: sixty to seventy, spiked in the seventy dollars range, stabilized,
- 16:04Speaker 1: and then here as recently started to spike again into
- 16:07Speaker 1: the eighty dollar range.
- 16:08Speaker 2: Right now, that's.
- 16:08Speaker 1: Print crude, which pretty much dictates energy prices of what
- 16:13Speaker 1: we'll see, and this course is at the pump for
- 16:15Speaker 1: you guys. One of the biggest categories of inflation that
- 16:19Speaker 1: is tracked out there is gas prices. So doesn't really
- 16:22Speaker 1: make sense if we're seeing this kind of spike over
- 16:24Speaker 1: the last three months and us seeing inflation going down.
- 16:28Speaker 2: Am I missing something? Here?
- 16:29Speaker 1: Are there areas where you guys see prices getting stabilized?
- 16:33Speaker 1: I mean, if there are, let me know in the comments.
- 16:36Speaker 1: I'd love to get a full understanding of this because
- 16:38Speaker 1: I don't see it. One thing that's happening though, is
- 16:41Speaker 1: household debt is now exploding into delinquency. This is not
- 16:46Speaker 1: a good sign as we continue to see this move
- 16:49Speaker 1: moving up right here. That is the problem right now,
- 16:52Speaker 1: severe derogatory credit hits happening right now in twenty twenty
- 16:59Speaker 1: five and twenty two, twenty six explosion, That big green
- 17:02Speaker 1: line right there not a good look overall. The one
- 17:05Speaker 1: twenty days late also exploding. I don't know, guys, maybe
- 17:10Speaker 1: this is the bottom, or are we penting up some
- 17:14Speaker 1: demand here that could move these markets, or is there
- 17:18Speaker 1: a lengthier bear market that continues. Let me know in
- 17:22Speaker 1: the comments if you think that's the case.
- 17:24Speaker 2: It's going to be a busy week.
- 17:25Speaker 1: Get ready. If you like this video, like and subscribe,
- 17:35Speaker 1: drop a comment down below, and also join our free
- 17:38Speaker 1: private member group.
- 17:39Speaker 2: The link is in the description.