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Separatists win Quebec local elections · INSIGHT TODAY

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Quebec has put independence back on the political agenda. Canada's
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  Speaker 1: long-running unity debate is back. The separatist Parti Québécois of
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  Speaker 1: Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon has won the provincial election in Quebec
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  Speaker 1: and returns to power for the first time in more
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  Speaker 1: than a decade.
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  Speaker 2: We simply want to exist as a nation and make
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  Speaker 2: our own decisions, just like the 200 other countries around
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  Speaker 2: the world.
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  Speaker 1: But if the incoming separatist leader, Saint-Pierre Plamondon, wants to
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  Speaker 1: deliver on his promise of holding another referendum on Quebec sovereignty,
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  Speaker 1: he'll need support from other parties. The Parti Québécois fell
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  Speaker 1: short of a majority and it would need the third
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  Speaker 1: vote on... independence in the province of 9 million people. Now,
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  Speaker 1: the result reopens one of Canada's most sensitive political debates,
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  Speaker 1: the unity of the country, and gives Prime Minister Mark
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  Speaker 1: Carney a separatist government in Quebec, just as he is
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  Speaker 1: trying to keep the country united in the face of
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  Speaker 1: external and internal pressures. All right, let's speak now to
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  Speaker 1: Boris Forman. He is a professor of politics from Bard
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  Speaker 1: College here in Berlin. Great to have you on DW
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  Speaker 1: News today. So does this result signal a genuine revival
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  Speaker 1: of Quebec's sovereignty movement or was this more a vote
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  Speaker 1: against the previous government than a vote for independence?
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  Speaker 2: I mean, it does come as a little bit of
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  Speaker 2: a surprise 12 years after the last time the Parti
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  Speaker 2: Québécois was actually voted first. But it comes as a
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  Speaker 2: surprise because it's a particular moment where there are geopolitical tensions,
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  Speaker 2: where Canada is under threat externally. So you would assume
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  Speaker 2: from a political science perspective also. that this brings people together.
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  Speaker 2: And here we are, the Parti Québécois won the election.
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  Speaker 2: On the other hand, I think what we're seeing is mostly,
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  Speaker 2: as you said, a rejection of the former incumbent of
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  Speaker 2: Avenir Québec, which didn't capture any new seats. We have
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  Speaker 2: the Québec Liberal Party that soared and captured 40 seats.
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  Speaker 2: So we have a new balance of power. But it's
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  Speaker 2: also very clear that the Québécois don't seem to be
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  Speaker 2: very keen on independence, even though they vote for the
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  Speaker 2: Parti Québécois. So if you look at polls, it's relatively clear.
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  Speaker 2: All right.
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  Speaker 1: That's interesting, though, what you're saying there, because Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon,
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  Speaker 1: Parti Québécoise leader, has essentially a promise of holding a referendum.
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  Speaker 1: But how difficult then is that going to be, seeing
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  Speaker 1: as though as well that his party fell short Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: I think you're totally right. I mean, yes, he did
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  Speaker 2: use certain cultural and linguistic resentments to mobilize his voters,
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  Speaker 2: and he seems to have been relatively successful with it.
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  Speaker 2: But he's going to have to deal with a minority government,
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  Speaker 2: and he will need support from other countries. from other parties,
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  Speaker 2: which are very unlikely. The Liberal Party in Quebec has
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  Speaker 2: already signaled that there's no way that it would support
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  Speaker 2: another referendum. And even Plomondon himself has acknowledged that he
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  Speaker 2: doesn't want a referendum before Trump is no longer in office.
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  Speaker 2: So I think he's very aware of the realities on
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  Speaker 2: the ground, but he's been quite successful in using the
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  Speaker 2: tool of Quebecois nationalism to rally voters behind him.
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  Speaker 1: And is this one of then the biggest points of
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  Speaker 1: friction that are likely to emerge between the Parti Québécois
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  Speaker 1: and the federal government in Ottawa?
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  Speaker 2: Well, I think one internal point of debate has been
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  Speaker 2: immigration law. This is something that Québécois has always insisted
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  Speaker 2: on in different models of federalism, where people have spoken
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  Speaker 2: about more independence for Quebec. Immigration is always important because
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  Speaker 2: it goes to the very heart of cultural nationalism. So
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  Speaker 2: who actually gets to decide who gets into the country or,
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  Speaker 2: in this case, the province? So immigration law, which McCartney
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  Speaker 2: has signaled he would either increase or stabilize immigration, is
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  Speaker 2: something that is seen as a provincial domain. And so
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  Speaker 2: this is certainly a point of discontent and of struggle.
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  Speaker 2: The other question that's in the room is about financial questions.
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  Speaker 2: How does the federal government allocate its finances, particularly support
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  Speaker 2: in the face of tariffs, U.S. tariffs? So there has
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  Speaker 2: been a debate around that. And so there will certainly
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  Speaker 2: be a point where the Parti Québécois will ask for
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  Speaker 2: money that hasn't any strings attached.
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  Speaker 1: Boris, you were mentioning before the actual push for independence
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  Speaker 1: in Quebec. Can you just tell us a bit more
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  Speaker 1: about the appetite that exists right now? Because you were
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  Speaker 1: saying there isn't much of an appetite right now, right?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah. So in the 1980s and 1990s, the Quebecois independence
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  Speaker 2: struggle was at its height. And the 1995 referendum just very,
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  Speaker 2: very closely failed to succeed. We're by no means at
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  Speaker 2: the level of support for independence that existed in the 1990s.
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  Speaker 2: Right now, all the polls indicate around 30 percent support
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  Speaker 2: for Quebecois independence. And so I think there's a very
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  Speaker 2: clear acknowledgement that this will not be sufficient to actually
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  Speaker 2: bring about another referendum. Also, just technically speaking, it's impossible
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  Speaker 2: for the Parti Québécois to do this alone. So what
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  Speaker 2: I think we'll see instead is a relatively unstable government.
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  Speaker 2: And Plamondon will be very busy staying in office for
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  Speaker 2: four years and fending off votes of no confidence.
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  Speaker 1: All right. So for now, let's just say the kind
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  Speaker 1: of push for independence in Quebec doesn't look too imminent.
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  Speaker 1: But if we kind of just park Quebec for a second,
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  Speaker 1: because Canada also has another push, or potential push for independence.
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  Speaker 1: The results in Quebec come just weeks before an October
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  Speaker 1: 19th vote in the western province of Alberta. Now, what
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  Speaker 1: they're having is a series of referendum questions. They're being
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  Speaker 1: put to Albertans, one of which is whether they want
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  Speaker 1: to pursue a path to independence. So, does the result
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  Speaker 1: in Quebec then give the separatist movement in Alberta, on
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  Speaker 1: the other side of the country, fresh momentum?
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  Speaker 2: Well, it's two weeks to go. I don't know if
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  Speaker 2: there's any direct causal link. It certainly offers certain talking
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  Speaker 2: points for those arguing in favor of this kind of
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  Speaker 2: a referendum. But I think overall, the dynamics are very different.
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  Speaker 2: In Quebec, this is a question of cultural and linguistic nationalism,
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  Speaker 2: also a dissatisfaction with affordability and housing costs. I mean,
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  Speaker 2: this is something we're seeing in all Western democracies, really,
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  Speaker 2: this kind of dissatisfaction with the cost of living. And
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  Speaker 2: in Alberta, we're seeing a certain anti-Ottawa resentment coupled with
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  Speaker 2: economic concerns. I don't think there's a direct causal link
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  Speaker 2: between the two. But what I think is interesting is
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  Speaker 2: we're in a moment where nationalism is soaring back globally.
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  Speaker 2: And it puts Canada in a difficult spot because on
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  Speaker 2: the one hand, as a Canadian nation state, multinational state,
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  Speaker 2: it's trying to unify, as Mark Carney has tried to do.
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  Speaker 2: At the same time, it is a multinational state. So
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  Speaker 2: we have nationalism on the provincial level, which is threatening
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  Speaker 2: and fracturing this kind of unity.
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  Speaker 1: How concerned should Prime Minister Mark Carney, who actually grew
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  Speaker 1: up in Alberta, be about these two possible fronts? Now,
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  Speaker 1: he's been arguing that Canada needs to be united in
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  Speaker 1: the face of pressure from US President Donald Trump. And
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  Speaker 1: he's been very clear about that.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we're going through very turbulent times. We're
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  Speaker 2: seeing the same thing in Germany. We're seeing the same
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  Speaker 2: thing in the EU. We have certain fragmenting tendencies at
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  Speaker 2: subnational or sub-state levels. And at the same time, we
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  Speaker 2: have increasing geopolitical conflicts and risks at a global level
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  Speaker 2: which require unity. So I don't think he has to
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  Speaker 2: be very worried about internal pressures at the moment. I
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  Speaker 2: don't think referendums are going to happen or any kind
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  Speaker 2: of secession will happen at the current moment. But nonetheless,
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  Speaker 2: of course, he has to signal to the outside world
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  Speaker 2: that he has the Canadian people behind him. And it
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  Speaker 2: is going to be much more difficult for him to
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  Speaker 2: send this kind of a message to Donald Trump, for instance.
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  Speaker 2: given these referendums. So it shows a certain fragmentation. But ultimately,
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  Speaker 2: I think for him, the decisive point will be to emphasize,
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  Speaker 2: keep emphasizing the risks of the current moment.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's also interesting with regards to sort of Canada's
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  Speaker 1: image abroad, right? Because if there's these sort of internal
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  Speaker 1: issues taking place and Mark Carney is calling for this unity,
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  Speaker 1: I mean, does that sort of undermine then Canada's strength
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  Speaker 1: abroad if Mark Carney is having to deal with these
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  Speaker 1: internal issues?
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  Speaker 2: It can, of course. People who will try to exploit
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  Speaker 2: this will certainly make this point. On the other hand,
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  Speaker 2: you could also say federalism is a way to try
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  Speaker 2: and cope with diversity and dissent in a democratic way.
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  Speaker 2: So maybe this is not actually a weakness, but a
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  Speaker 2: strength of... multinational and federal state to be able to
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  Speaker 2: live in unity. But of course, in moments of conflict,
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  Speaker 2: in moments of crisis, there's always a push towards the
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  Speaker 2: centralization of power. And this looks different in an authoritarian
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  Speaker 2: state than it does in a democratic state. But sometimes
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  Speaker 2: democracies look weaker in moments of crisis than they actually are.
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  Speaker 2: But it remains to be seen.
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  Speaker 1: Right. Great to get your analysis, Boris. We'll leave it there, though.
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  Speaker 1: Boris Forman, Professor of Politics from Baird College here in Berlin.
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  Speaker 1: Thanks so much.
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  Speaker 2: Thank you.
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  Speaker 1: All right, so what do you think? Is Canada's future
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  Speaker 1: as a nation beginning to crumble? Or is this an
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  Speaker 1: example of healthy democracy and the people speaking their voice?
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  Speaker 1: Write to us in the comments. I'm Pablo Folli-Elias, as always.
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  Speaker 1: Thanks for watching. And until next time, take care.