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Apple’s Record Run, Rate Cut Hopes, and Today’s Market Balance · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning and welcome back to Spy Trader .
• 0:03
  I'm your host , Barry Cashflow , ready to break down what's moving the market before the opening bell .
• 0:09
  It's 6 am on Tuesday , October 21st , 2025 , Pacific .
• 0:15
  We are watching a market that is taking a necessary breath this morning after the S&P 500 surged over 1% yesterday .
• 0:24
  Right now , futures are slightly down and mixed — S&P 500 futures are dipping about 0.13% , and the Nasdaq 100 is down 0.18% , signaling a pause after that big technologyled rally .
• 0:40
  The broad market outlook remains one of cautious strength , driven by strong corporate earnings , but haunted by macro uncertainty .
• 0:48
  In the news , technology remains the primary engine .
• 0:53
  Apple , ticker AAPL , soared nearly 4% to a new record high yesterday .
• 0:58
  This followed reports confirming that its new iPhone 17 series sales have surpassed the previous model in both the US and China .
• 1:06
  That's a huge sign of consumer strength .
• 1:09
  In corporate earnings , the beats keep coming .
• 1:12
  CocaCola , KO , gained premarket after beating its organic sales estimates , and 3M Company , MMM , rose after raising its fullyear profit forecast .
• 1:24
  This momentum is why the overall S&P 500 beat rate for Q3 is a stunning 87.2% .
• 1:32
  However , there are pockets of weakness .
• 1:34
  The Healthcare sector saw Exelixis , EXEL , fall after delivering mixed results from a phase 3 trial .
• 1:42
  Let’s talk macro .
• 1:44
  The market is increasingly dovish , meaning they anticipate an interest rate cut at the upcoming October Federal Open Market Committee meeting .
• 1:53
  This is largely because Fed Chair Jerome Powell has focused attention on the slowing labor market , citing increased layoffs and , significantly , attributing some attrition to AI adoption displacing roles .
• 2:06
  This job risk is outweighing current inflation worries , even though Core PCE is at 2.9%—inflation which the Fed largely attributes to tariffs , not broad pressure .
• 2:19
  Geopolitical risks are still elevated .
• 2:22
  We have USChina trade tensions where President Trump has threatened new 100% tariffs , though later positive remarks eased fears temporarily .
• 2:31
  Also , the government shutdown delay has pushed the critical Consumer Price Index or CPI report to Friday , making that a major catalyst later this week .
• 2:41
  Given this environment — strong earnings but high risk — we need a balanced trading plan .
• 2:47
  First , favor technology and growth .
• 2:50
  The AI structural tailwind is real , and the ' Magnificent 7 ' are expected to post impressive earnings growth of nearly 15% .
• 2:59
  I recommend maintaining a core position in the Invesco QQQ Trust , QQQ , for broad tech exposure , or focusing on dips in highconviction names like Apple , given the strong iPhone 17 sales data .
• 3:14
  Second , look tactically at the Financials .
• 3:18
  The easing of credit concerns and optimism about the end of the government shutdown could make this sector undervalued .
• 3:25
  Consider the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLF , capitalizing on the relief rally seen in banks like Wells Fargo .
• 3:34
  Third , we must hedge against uncertainty .
• 3:38
  Since tariffs are fueling core inflation and geopolitical tension remains high , we need protection .
• 3:45
  I recommend SPDR Gold Shares , GLD , to hedge against both geopolitical risk and tariffdriven inflation .
• 3:53
  Alternatively , the iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF , TLT , could benefit if the labor market slows dramatically , forcing the Fed to cut rates more aggressively .
• 4:04
  That’s all the time we have for this edition of Spy Trader .
• 4:08
  Trade smart , stay nimble , and I’ll catch you on the next update .